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History isn’t going to be kind to Trump because of the manner of his departure – politicalbetting.co

SystemSystem Posts: 12,126
edited November 2020 in General
imageHistory isn’t going to be kind to Trump because of the manner of his departure – politicalbetting.com

The Trump campaign spent $3 million on the Wisconsin recount.It yielded a net gain of 87 votes for Joe Biden. Recounts have failed.Lawsuits failing.Pressuring local officials and state legislators is failing.Misinformation campaign is failing. GOP leadership yet to concede.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • dodradedodrade Posts: 596
    Where is everyone?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,879
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    I've been offered a 13" M1 Macbook Pro through work, not sure whether to take it or wait for next year's version, will have to wait until 2023 to upgrade if I take it.

    I’m waiting for the 64GB/4TB version, which should be next year. Modern laptops are impossible to upgrade, so get the best one you can. The current laptop is an old 2013 MBP which has finally reached its upgrade limit!
    I got the M1 Mac Mini, simply because I was really excited to see how an ARM based PC would work out. (I handed a Surface Book X back after a week.)

    And the answer is...

    So long as you're running apps that are compiled for the M1, it's awesome. Stuff that is x64 code that is converted before running is usually good, but seems to fall over when its called upon to use multiple threads. (Brave with a dozen browser tabs open is unusable. Chrome - which is a native M1 binary - is fine.)

    USB compatibility seems a bit spotty. There are quite a few peripherals (basically anything more than 18 months old) that don't seem to work.

    Playing Steam games, I think only about 20% (Into the Breach) work OK, the other 80% don't. That will hopefully largely be solved as people cross compile.

    So...

    I wouldn't get it yet, *unless* you live entirely with Apple native apps or in Chrome.
    How does it do with complicated maths and ML in Python? That's my main use scenario and it's why I'm not sure I want to move away from my current setup.
    If your current setup works, there is no reason to change.

    The Macbooks are worth getting IFF:

    (1) You are a road warrior, who values every extra 15 minutes away from the power plug
    (2) You live in the Google / Apple Universe, and everything you want is already cross-compiled for M1
    (3) You don't have old USB peripherals you need to use

    My guess, FWIW, is that the Python 3.8 will not have been cross-compiled for M1, and that the binary ML libraries certainly will not have been. This will force you to use an emulated version (which will be relatively slow and will kill your battery life), in which case you should be using Intel or AMD silicon.

    This will change. However: as Apple is going entirely in house with its GPU stuff, and as your ML stuff will be GPU heavy, it may never work for you to switch.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,879
    edited November 2020
    So... we were talking about Malcolm Bradbury on the last thread, and I was trying to remember his EU satire series, the Gravy Train.

    And I looked it up on-line and discovered the lead is an incredibly young Christoph Waltz.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3mUUAXg7-Y&ab_channel=TheBFSEntertainment
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,879
    It would appear the whole of the Gravy Train is (legally) available on-line:

    https://www.channel4.com/programmes/the-gravy-train/episode-guide/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,879
    rcs1000 said:

    It would appear the whole of the Gravy Train is (legally) available on-line:

    https://www.channel4.com/programmes/the-gravy-train/episode-guide/

    Malcom Bradbury also wrote Anything More Would be Greedy, which I have been less successful at tracking down,
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,308
    The election was rigged, but only against Trump...

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1333243285389914112
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,573
    edited November 2020
    Wisconsin into 1.03 after the recount. Current Betfair prices:-

    Biden 1.05
    Democrats 1.05
    Biden PV 1.02
    Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.06
    Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.06
    Trump ECV 210-239 1.08
    Biden ECV 300-329 1.08
    Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.04
    Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.06
    Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 1.02

    AZ Dem 1.05
    GA Dem 1.06
    MI Dem 1.06
    NV Dem 1.05
    PA Dem 1.06
    WI Dem 1.03

    Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.12
    Trump exit date 2021 1.11
  • David Cameron will be glued to the West Ham Villa match tonight.
  • St Andrew's Day, a bank holiday in Scotland, today.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509

    The election was rigged, but only against Trump...

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1333243285389914112

    TBF, accepting such a result would require his acknowledging that he is a steaming pile of toxic ordure.

    If only he could take Darwin’s advice.

    https://twitter.com/mattzieger/status/1333268294661406721

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,879
    edited November 2020
    Nigelb said:

    The election was rigged, but only against Trump...

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1333243285389914112

    TBF, accepting such a result would require his acknowledging that he is a steaming pile of toxic ordure.

    If only he could take Darwin’s advice.

    https://twitter.com/mattzieger/status/1333268294661406721

    We "value" those who show constancy of belief, when the reality is that those who can change their mind are far more likely to be successful.

    It's funny: fund management is one of the few professions in which being willing and able to change your mind is considered important.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    He doesn’t need plans. People in jail have everything decided for them.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    I do wonder if we’d have done better to have a one week quarantine period, which even if marginally less effective might have been far better observed ?

    https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1333164953918967815
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,879
    An interesting article on who to vaccinated first: https://www.wired.com/story/covid-19-vaccine-super-spreaders
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The election was rigged, but only against Trump...

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1333243285389914112

    TBF, accepting such a result would require his acknowledging that he is a steaming pile of toxic ordure.

    If only he could take Darwin’s advice.

    https://twitter.com/mattzieger/status/1333268294661406721

    We "value" those who show constancy of belief, when the reality is that those who can change their mind are far more likely to be successful.

    It's funny: fund management is one of the few professions in which being willing and able to change your mind is considered important.
    Though there’s a distinction to be drawn between consistency of principle and constancy of belief.
    To take a random example.... those Republican senators who change their minds on the importance of defects just after they’ve lost an election.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The election was rigged, but only against Trump...

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1333243285389914112

    TBF, accepting such a result would require his acknowledging that he is a steaming pile of toxic ordure.

    If only he could take Darwin’s advice.

    https://twitter.com/mattzieger/status/1333268294661406721

    We "value" those who show constancy of belief, when the reality is that those who can change their mind are far more likely to be successful.

    It's funny: fund management is one of the few professions in which being willing and able to change your mind is considered important.
    Maybe if everyone else got paid a nice £ commission every time they changed their position, it would be problem solved? ;)
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,060
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The election was rigged, but only against Trump...

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1333243285389914112

    TBF, accepting such a result would require his acknowledging that he is a steaming pile of toxic ordure.

    If only he could take Darwin’s advice.

    https://twitter.com/mattzieger/status/1333268294661406721

    We "value" those who show constancy of belief, when the reality is that those who can change their mind are far more likely to be successful.

    It's funny: fund management is one of the few professions in which being willing and able to change your mind is considered important.
    But someone who flip-flops their opinion with every new bit of evidence will also not be "valued" nor should they be. And I'm sure your sucessful fund managers are not buying and selling shares based on every little up and down tick.

    You need find a way down the midde, to base opinions on good evidence but when the evidence shows that you need to change your mind you take that on board.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited November 2020
    In other news, Biden has broken his foot, and the longgggg search for anything positive about Brexit may finally have turned something up:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/30/environment-to-benefit-from-biggest-farming-shake-up-in-50-years
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,060
    Scott_xP said:
    I think a group of Conservative MPs calling themselves the "Covid Research Group" is insulting to the research medics and lab immunologists who are doing proper research in this field.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,894
    IanB2 said:

    the longgggg search for anything positive about Brexit may finally have turned something up:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/30/environment-to-benefit-from-biggest-farming-shake-up-in-50-years

    Even this bit?

    The National Farmers’ Union warned that the speed of the reduction in direct subsidies was “high risk” and some farms could become unviable, undermining domestic food production.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Scott_xP said:
    Excellent piece with some interesting comparisons. We lost enthusiasm for fighting this virus remarkably quickly. It does not reflect well on us.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,894
    DavidL said:

    We lost enthusiasm for fighting this virus remarkably quickly. It does not reflect well on us.

    Indeed, although Hitler didn't have anyone calling him a hoax...
  • eristdoof said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I think a group of Conservative MPs calling themselves the "Covid Research Group" is insulting to the research medics and lab immunologists who are doing proper research in this field.
    Given the track record of the European Research Group I doubt that they will turn out to be very well informed about their chosen area of expertise.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Excellent piece with some interesting comparisons. We lost enthusiasm for fighting this virus remarkably quickly. It does not reflect well on us.
    See the front page today about the singer who decided to have a birthday party in London. I hope they make an example of her in court, and don’t hand out a £10k fine that would be meaningless to her.

    So many people appear to find it almost impossible to avoid socialising with others, despite clear evidence that they’re spreading a nasty virus around - maybe 2020 is the year of the introvert after all? ;)
  • rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The election was rigged, but only against Trump...

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1333243285389914112

    TBF, accepting such a result would require his acknowledging that he is a steaming pile of toxic ordure.

    If only he could take Darwin’s advice.

    https://twitter.com/mattzieger/status/1333268294661406721

    We "value" those who show constancy of belief, when the reality is that those who can change their mind are far more likely to be successful.

    It's funny: fund management is one of the few professions in which being willing and able to change your mind is considered important.
    One of the joys of working in the industry is that you are actually able to influence people's thinking through well reasoned argument. I can't imagine that working as an economist in the government offers the same kind of experience right now.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,879
    eristdoof said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The election was rigged, but only against Trump...

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1333243285389914112

    TBF, accepting such a result would require his acknowledging that he is a steaming pile of toxic ordure.

    If only he could take Darwin’s advice.

    https://twitter.com/mattzieger/status/1333268294661406721

    We "value" those who show constancy of belief, when the reality is that those who can change their mind are far more likely to be successful.

    It's funny: fund management is one of the few professions in which being willing and able to change your mind is considered important.
    But someone who flip-flops their opinion with every new bit of evidence will also not be "valued" nor should they be. And I'm sure your sucessful fund managers are not buying and selling shares based on every little up and down tick.

    You need find a way down the midde, to base opinions on good evidence but when the evidence shows that you need to change your mind you take that on board.
    A price change is not change in evidence.

    When you're a fund manager and you buy a company's shares, you hope they will do well. You are emotionally committed to their success.

    Some news comes out: if it's negative, you'll seek to minimise its importance - it was all in the price, you'll say; or it provides an opportunity to buy more.

    This is perfectly natural. But the consequence is that people become entrenched in their opinions.

    Successful fund managers are the people who can say "well, yesterday I thought Bayer was a fantastic investment, but now I realise it's a pile of shit".
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,879
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The election was rigged, but only against Trump...

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1333243285389914112

    TBF, accepting such a result would require his acknowledging that he is a steaming pile of toxic ordure.

    If only he could take Darwin’s advice.

    https://twitter.com/mattzieger/status/1333268294661406721

    We "value" those who show constancy of belief, when the reality is that those who can change their mind are far more likely to be successful.

    It's funny: fund management is one of the few professions in which being willing and able to change your mind is considered important.
    Maybe if everyone else got paid a nice £ commission every time they changed their position, it would be problem solved? ;)
    Fund managers don't get paid for changing their position, that's brokers.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    We lost enthusiasm for fighting this virus remarkably quickly. It does not reflect well on us.

    Indeed, although Hitler didn't have anyone calling him a hoax...
    I find the hoax thing bewildering. I accept that there is room for a range of views on how dangerous this thing is for most of us, how many of the dead were already in the departure lounge, how efficacious so many of the restrictions we have imposed are and what we might have done instead, etc, but a hoax? It's just totally irrational.

    I look at my own behaviour and wonder about the rationality of that. In March and April I didn't go to work at all. A tank of fuel lasted a month. Visits to the shops were cut to the minimum, coffee shops went unvisited, contact with pals etc was by screen, my son was not at school, we were incredibly strict. Now I go into work for a couple of days every week, I am going in today, because I am more productive there (ie not sufficiently disciplined here), my wife and I went shopping in Edinburgh on Saturday for something we needed but went out for lunch and went to many other shops as well, a tank of fuel is back to a week's worth and of course my son is mixing with several hundred kids 5 days a week and then coming home. We are gambling in a way we didn't.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    edited November 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    An interesting article on who to vaccinated first: https://www.wired.com/story/covid-19-vaccine-super-spreaders

    Thanks. One can see the logic. As an 80+ year old I've been within four or five feet of maybe three or four people, all different, except my wife, in the last six months. And generally only for short periods. Whereas my teacher grandchildren have been in contact with dozens, although of course they've been masked.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    eristdoof said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I think a group of Conservative MPs calling themselves the "Covid Research Group" is insulting to the research medics and lab immunologists who are doing proper research in this field.
    Given the track record of the European Research Group I doubt that they will turn out to be very well informed about their chosen area of expertise.
    It seems to be becoming an established bit of code. Perhaps the BNP will rebrand as the Immigration Research Group.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    We lost enthusiasm for fighting this virus remarkably quickly. It does not reflect well on us.

    Indeed, although Hitler didn't have anyone calling him a hoax...
    But that's not the problem, is it? The problem is the statistics. I know sixty somethings complaining that the average age of COVID deaths is 82. Us clever people on here understand probability. We get that you really don't want to play Russian Roulette. But a lot of people think it won't happen to them.

    I thought the vaccine news would alter the mindset of people. It hasn't. One of the big questions to ask in the assessment of this whole thing should be, "how do we make people behave differently next time?"
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,421
    So we’re in the endgame now. The Brexit trade deal must be agreed this week.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    So we’re in the endgame now. The Brexit trade deal must be agreed this week.

    Absolutely. Even by EU standards its now 7 or 8 minutes past midnight.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    rcs1000 said:

    eristdoof said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The election was rigged, but only against Trump...

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1333243285389914112

    TBF, accepting such a result would require his acknowledging that he is a steaming pile of toxic ordure.

    If only he could take Darwin’s advice.

    https://twitter.com/mattzieger/status/1333268294661406721

    We "value" those who show constancy of belief, when the reality is that those who can change their mind are far more likely to be successful.

    It's funny: fund management is one of the few professions in which being willing and able to change your mind is considered important.
    But someone who flip-flops their opinion with every new bit of evidence will also not be "valued" nor should they be. And I'm sure your sucessful fund managers are not buying and selling shares based on every little up and down tick.

    You need find a way down the midde, to base opinions on good evidence but when the evidence shows that you need to change your mind you take that on board.
    A price change is not change in evidence.

    When you're a fund manager and you buy a company's shares, you hope they will do well. You are emotionally committed to their success.

    Some news comes out: if it's negative, you'll seek to minimise its importance - it was all in the price, you'll say; or it provides an opportunity to buy more.

    This is perfectly natural. But the consequence is that people become entrenched in their opinions.

    Successful fund managers are the people who can say "well, yesterday I thought Bayer was a fantastic investment, but now I realise it's a pile of shit".
    They’re also surrounded by people who understand that both facts and opinions change over time, and don’t fire the guy for saying the investment is now a pile of sh!t.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,879
    I don't know how I missed this, but this story is well worth a read: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-05-19/who-is-germany-s-self-proclaimed-king-peter-fitzek
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    tlg86 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    We lost enthusiasm for fighting this virus remarkably quickly. It does not reflect well on us.

    Indeed, although Hitler didn't have anyone calling him a hoax...
    But that's not the problem, is it? The problem is the statistics. I know sixty somethings complaining that the average age of COVID deaths is 82. Us clever people on here understand probability. We get that you really don't want to play Russian Roulette. But a lot of people think it won't happen to them.

    I thought the vaccine news would alter the mindset of people. It hasn't. One of the big questions to ask in the assessment of this whole thing should be, "how do we make people behave differently next time?"
    Yes, you would have expected the vaccine news to encourage people to double down with the end in sight and a purpose to taking precautions as opposed to simply deferring the inevitable. But it really doesn't seem to have worked like that.
  • DavidL said:

    So we’re in the endgame now. The Brexit trade deal must be agreed this week.

    Absolutely. Even by EU standards its now 7 or 8 minutes past midnight.
    No, we're way past that. Any deal now agreed that imposes customs and standards checks is impossible to implement by 1st January. We cannot legally delay. We cannot legally just ignore the new rules and not implement them.

    Either we are doing a Canada and announcing a "new" deal which provides continuity. Or we are throwing a one line bill at Parliament to extend. Or we see the border shut down. As most Brexity punters wouldn't know what trade is if it was slipping them one, surely the path of least resistance is continuity.

    The ERG will hate it, but if they hate it too much they can always be slung out of the party. The press will roundly back BJ and his patriotic triumph. The Nigel will huff and puff but "we got a deal" will be thrown back in his face and are punters really doing to go to war because the deal they voted for wasn't to the Nigel's taste?

    C'mon Shagger. Choose the colour of lipstip for the pig and lets get on with it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,879

    DavidL said:

    So we’re in the endgame now. The Brexit trade deal must be agreed this week.

    Absolutely. Even by EU standards its now 7 or 8 minutes past midnight.
    No, we're way past that. Any deal now agreed that imposes customs and standards checks is impossible to implement by 1st January. We cannot legally delay. We cannot legally just ignore the new rules and not implement them.

    Either we are doing a Canada and announcing a "new" deal which provides continuity. Or we are throwing a one line bill at Parliament to extend. Or we see the border shut down. As most Brexity punters wouldn't know what trade is if it was slipping them one, surely the path of least resistance is continuity.

    The ERG will hate it, but if they hate it too much they can always be slung out of the party. The press will roundly back BJ and his patriotic triumph. The Nigel will huff and puff but "we got a deal" will be thrown back in his face and are punters really doing to go to war because the deal they voted for wasn't to the Nigel's taste?

    C'mon Shagger. Choose the colour of lipstip for the pig and lets get on with it.
    Of course we can delay.

    A one line codicil to the treaty extending the period to June 2023 can be agreed at 11:52pm on December 31.

    Treaties are amended all the time. This one can as well,

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    rcs1000 said:

    eristdoof said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The election was rigged, but only against Trump...

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1333243285389914112

    TBF, accepting such a result would require his acknowledging that he is a steaming pile of toxic ordure.

    If only he could take Darwin’s advice.

    https://twitter.com/mattzieger/status/1333268294661406721

    We "value" those who show constancy of belief, when the reality is that those who can change their mind are far more likely to be successful.

    It's funny: fund management is one of the few professions in which being willing and able to change your mind is considered important.
    But someone who flip-flops their opinion with every new bit of evidence will also not be "valued" nor should they be. And I'm sure your sucessful fund managers are not buying and selling shares based on every little up and down tick.

    You need find a way down the midde, to base opinions on good evidence but when the evidence shows that you need to change your mind you take that on board.
    A price change is not change in evidence.

    When you're a fund manager and you buy a company's shares, you hope they will do well. You are emotionally committed to their success.

    Some news comes out: if it's negative, you'll seek to minimise its importance - it was all in the price, you'll say; or it provides an opportunity to buy more.

    This is perfectly natural. But the consequence is that people become entrenched in their opinions.

    Successful fund managers are the people who can say "well, yesterday I thought Bayer was a fantastic investment, but now I realise it's a pile of shit".
    But even better to have one who realised it was crap yesterday...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The election was rigged, but only against Trump...

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1333243285389914112

    TBF, accepting such a result would require his acknowledging that he is a steaming pile of toxic ordure.

    If only he could take Darwin’s advice.

    https://twitter.com/mattzieger/status/1333268294661406721

    We "value" those who show constancy of belief, when the reality is that those who can change their mind are far more likely to be successful.

    It's funny: fund management is one of the few professions in which being willing and able to change your mind is considered important.
    Maybe if everyone else got paid a nice £ commission every time they changed their position, it would be problem solved? ;)
    Fund managers don't get paid for changing their position, that's brokers.
    Did you miss the smiley?

    They are however part of a whole industry that has a vested interest in encouraging over-trading.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    So we’re in the endgame now. The Brexit trade deal must be agreed this week.

    Absolutely. Even by EU standards its now 7 or 8 minutes past midnight.
    No, we're way past that. Any deal now agreed that imposes customs and standards checks is impossible to implement by 1st January. We cannot legally delay. We cannot legally just ignore the new rules and not implement them.

    Either we are doing a Canada and announcing a "new" deal which provides continuity. Or we are throwing a one line bill at Parliament to extend. Or we see the border shut down. As most Brexity punters wouldn't know what trade is if it was slipping them one, surely the path of least resistance is continuity.

    The ERG will hate it, but if they hate it too much they can always be slung out of the party. The press will roundly back BJ and his patriotic triumph. The Nigel will huff and puff but "we got a deal" will be thrown back in his face and are punters really doing to go to war because the deal they voted for wasn't to the Nigel's taste?

    C'mon Shagger. Choose the colour of lipstip for the pig and lets get on with it.
    Of course we can delay.

    A one line codicil to the treaty extending the period to June 2023 can be agreed at 11:52pm on December 31.

    Treaties are amended all the time. This one can as well,

    We don't want a delay though, we want this done. It's been boring the tits off us for 4 years now. Enough. If this means in practice that everyone turns a blind eye for a few months until both sides get up to speed so be it. It really is time we focused on more important stuff.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    We lost enthusiasm for fighting this virus remarkably quickly. It does not reflect well on us.

    Indeed, although Hitler didn't have anyone calling him a hoax...
    But that's not the problem, is it? The problem is the statistics. I know sixty somethings complaining that the average age of COVID deaths is 82. Us clever people on here understand probability. We get that you really don't want to play Russian Roulette. But a lot of people think it won't happen to them.

    I thought the vaccine news would alter the mindset of people. It hasn't. One of the big questions to ask in the assessment of this whole thing should be, "how do we make people behave differently next time?"
    Yes, you would have expected the vaccine news to encourage people to double down with the end in sight and a purpose to taking precautions as opposed to simply deferring the inevitable. But it really doesn't seem to have worked like that.
    It's also interesting that it appears to contradict public opinion. We're told that most people are sort of pro-lockdown (or rather, they're not against it), yet that doesn't seem to match reality. Perhaps it only needs 30% of people to not give a damn for there to be trouble.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    We lost enthusiasm for fighting this virus remarkably quickly. It does not reflect well on us.

    Indeed, although Hitler didn't have anyone calling him a hoax...
    Except the Daily Mail and a load of Tory MPs?
  • rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    So we’re in the endgame now. The Brexit trade deal must be agreed this week.

    Absolutely. Even by EU standards its now 7 or 8 minutes past midnight.
    No, we're way past that. Any deal now agreed that imposes customs and standards checks is impossible to implement by 1st January. We cannot legally delay. We cannot legally just ignore the new rules and not implement them.

    Either we are doing a Canada and announcing a "new" deal which provides continuity. Or we are throwing a one line bill at Parliament to extend. Or we see the border shut down. As most Brexity punters wouldn't know what trade is if it was slipping them one, surely the path of least resistance is continuity.

    The ERG will hate it, but if they hate it too much they can always be slung out of the party. The press will roundly back BJ and his patriotic triumph. The Nigel will huff and puff but "we got a deal" will be thrown back in his face and are punters really doing to go to war because the deal they voted for wasn't to the Nigel's taste?

    C'mon Shagger. Choose the colour of lipstip for the pig and lets get on with it.
    Of course we can delay.

    A one line codicil to the treaty extending the period to June 2023 can be agreed at 11:52pm on December 31.

    Treaties are amended all the time. This one can as well,

    We can legally. I made that point - a 1 line bill. However I don't think that is a politically survivable event for the PM. Failure and delay was what his failed predecessor did. BJ had an over-ready deal.

    The point that really needs hammering home with all of this is the damage being done to business. Whilst an 8 minutes to midnight amendment might be acceptable (!) in something like a treaty negotiation, this is trade. We are months and months past the point where business needed to know the confirmed arrangements. The cost of not having those agreed yet and the potential for 8 minutes to midnight shenanigans is something we will be paying for over the next decade.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Quote of the day contender:

    “I wasn’t for the halo some years ago, but I [now] think it’s the greatest thing we have built in Formula One,”

    - F1 driver Romain Grosjean, talking about the controversial (until yesterday) Halo safety device, that almost certainly saved his life and let him walk away from an horrific accident.
  • DavidL said:

    So we’re in the endgame now. The Brexit trade deal must be agreed this week.

    Absolutely. Even by EU standards its now 7 or 8 minutes past midnight.
    No, we're way past that. Any deal now agreed that imposes customs and standards checks is impossible to implement by 1st January. We cannot legally delay. We cannot legally just ignore the new rules and not implement them.

    Either we are doing a Canada and announcing a "new" deal which provides continuity. Or we are throwing a one line bill at Parliament to extend. Or we see the border shut down. As most Brexity punters wouldn't know what trade is if it was slipping them one, surely the path of least resistance is continuity.

    The ERG will hate it, but if they hate it too much they can always be slung out of the party. The press will roundly back BJ and his patriotic triumph. The Nigel will huff and puff but "we got a deal" will be thrown back in his face and are punters really doing to go to war because the deal they voted for wasn't to the Nigel's taste?

    C'mon Shagger. Choose the colour of lipstip for the pig and lets get on with it.
    Or the deal itself includes a “transition phase” of a couple of months?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177
    rcs1000 said:

    An interesting article on who to vaccinated first: https://www.wired.com/story/covid-19-vaccine-super-spreaders

    Very interesting thanks, and good to see an actual idea of what to do about identifying potential superspreaders.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Labour has a real problem here. Many many of their non-cult MPs genuinely believe their job includes the prevention of harm to their constituents. Yes I know that many now ex-MPs tried to protect their constituents who angrily voted them out in favour of self-harm. I know several of the now ex-MPs who are quite content that they did the right thing.

    So it depends on the deal. If we get the continuity EEA pig lipstick deal that I expect, Labour MPs won't have that big a problem supporting it. If the deal is one that guarantees the closure of Nissan (as an example) then why would a Labour MP especially one up here vote for it? Yes many of their constituents don't believe the coming harm (though less of them than before), but once a bad deal harms them they will go apoplectic, and sophistry arguments about "eugh its the Tories deal not ours" won't cut it if they voted for it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,879

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    So we’re in the endgame now. The Brexit trade deal must be agreed this week.

    Absolutely. Even by EU standards its now 7 or 8 minutes past midnight.
    No, we're way past that. Any deal now agreed that imposes customs and standards checks is impossible to implement by 1st January. We cannot legally delay. We cannot legally just ignore the new rules and not implement them.

    Either we are doing a Canada and announcing a "new" deal which provides continuity. Or we are throwing a one line bill at Parliament to extend. Or we see the border shut down. As most Brexity punters wouldn't know what trade is if it was slipping them one, surely the path of least resistance is continuity.

    The ERG will hate it, but if they hate it too much they can always be slung out of the party. The press will roundly back BJ and his patriotic triumph. The Nigel will huff and puff but "we got a deal" will be thrown back in his face and are punters really doing to go to war because the deal they voted for wasn't to the Nigel's taste?

    C'mon Shagger. Choose the colour of lipstip for the pig and lets get on with it.
    Of course we can delay.

    A one line codicil to the treaty extending the period to June 2023 can be agreed at 11:52pm on December 31.

    Treaties are amended all the time. This one can as well,

    We can legally. I made that point - a 1 line bill. However I don't think that is a politically survivable event for the PM. Failure and delay was what his failed predecessor did. BJ had an over-ready deal.

    The point that really needs hammering home with all of this is the damage being done to business. Whilst an 8 minutes to midnight amendment might be acceptable (!) in something like a treaty negotiation, this is trade. We are months and months past the point where business needed to know the confirmed arrangements. The cost of not having those agreed yet and the potential for 8 minutes to midnight shenanigans is something we will be paying for over the next decade.
    But that won't be what happens:

    December 12, Boris announces victory. A deal has been agreed with the EU, and all the important points are in place.

    However, it will take a couple of weeks to get all the i's dotted and the t's crossed, plus it has to go through 20-odd countries, and therefore we'll be putting in place a quick extension.

    And let's just all rejoice that a deal - and not just any deal, but a deal favourable to Britain - has been agreed.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,421
    A codicil or treaty amendment would need to be ratified by all the national parliaments, would it not?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177
    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    We lost enthusiasm for fighting this virus remarkably quickly. It does not reflect well on us.

    Indeed, although Hitler didn't have anyone calling him a hoax...
    But that's not the problem, is it? The problem is the statistics. I know sixty somethings complaining that the average age of COVID deaths is 82. Us clever people on here understand probability. We get that you really don't want to play Russian Roulette. But a lot of people think it won't happen to them.

    I thought the vaccine news would alter the mindset of people. It hasn't. One of the big questions to ask in the assessment of this whole thing should be, "how do we make people behave differently next time?"
    Yes, you would have expected the vaccine news to encourage people to double down with the end in sight and a purpose to taking precautions as opposed to simply deferring the inevitable. But it really doesn't seem to have worked like that.
    Definitely my approach, and I’m only late forties, with mild asthma as my only (known) co-morbidity. No desire to recreate the seen from ‘All quiet on the western front’...
  • Scott_xP said:

    IanB2 said:

    the longgggg search for anything positive about Brexit may finally have turned something up:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/30/environment-to-benefit-from-biggest-farming-shake-up-in-50-years

    Even this bit?

    The National Farmers’ Union warned that the speed of the reduction in direct subsidies was “high risk” and some farms could become unviable, undermining domestic food production.
    Yes.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,062
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    So we’re in the endgame now. The Brexit trade deal must be agreed this week.

    Absolutely. Even by EU standards its now 7 or 8 minutes past midnight.
    No, we're way past that. Any deal now agreed that imposes customs and standards checks is impossible to implement by 1st January. We cannot legally delay. We cannot legally just ignore the new rules and not implement them.

    Either we are doing a Canada and announcing a "new" deal which provides continuity. Or we are throwing a one line bill at Parliament to extend. Or we see the border shut down. As most Brexity punters wouldn't know what trade is if it was slipping them one, surely the path of least resistance is continuity.

    The ERG will hate it, but if they hate it too much they can always be slung out of the party. The press will roundly back BJ and his patriotic triumph. The Nigel will huff and puff but "we got a deal" will be thrown back in his face and are punters really doing to go to war because the deal they voted for wasn't to the Nigel's taste?

    C'mon Shagger. Choose the colour of lipstip for the pig and lets get on with it.
    Of course we can delay.

    A one line codicil to the treaty extending the period to June 2023 can be agreed at 11:52pm on December 31.

    Treaties are amended all the time. This one can as well,

    We can legally. I made that point - a 1 line bill. However I don't think that is a politically survivable event for the PM. Failure and delay was what his failed predecessor did. BJ had an over-ready deal.

    The point that really needs hammering home with all of this is the damage being done to business. Whilst an 8 minutes to midnight amendment might be acceptable (!) in something like a treaty negotiation, this is trade. We are months and months past the point where business needed to know the confirmed arrangements. The cost of not having those agreed yet and the potential for 8 minutes to midnight shenanigans is something we will be paying for over the next decade.
    But that won't be what happens:

    December 12, Boris announces victory. A deal has been agreed with the EU, and all the important points are in place.

    However, it will take a couple of weeks to get all the i's dotted and the t's crossed, plus it has to go through 20-odd countries, and therefore we'll be putting in place a quick extension.

    And let's just all rejoice that a deal - and not just any deal, but a deal favourable to Britain - has been agreed.
    The problem is that even with a deal January is going to be one unholy mess. Doris has no way out now. He can shout that black is white all he likes but less than 20% of UK exporters are prepared, even if there is a deal. Without it is going to be 6.5% tariffs and a truck full of paperwork, most of which UK companies have not seen for 50 years.

    UK exports will drop drastically, prices in the shops will rocket and Sterling will fall out of bed... by the end of the first month it will be crisis summits and resignations.
  • IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    We lost enthusiasm for fighting this virus remarkably quickly. It does not reflect well on us.

    Indeed, although Hitler didn't have anyone calling him a hoax...
    Except the Daily Mail and a load of Tory MPs?
    Only straight Tory MPs. Gay Tory MPs were strongly anti-appeasement and anti-Nazi. Ask Father Christmas for Chris Bryant's book, The Glamour Boys.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJUksEGh5OU

  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,062
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    So we’re in the endgame now. The Brexit trade deal must be agreed this week.

    Absolutely. Even by EU standards its now 7 or 8 minutes past midnight.
    No, we're way past that. Any deal now agreed that imposes customs and standards checks is impossible to implement by 1st January. We cannot legally delay. We cannot legally just ignore the new rules and not implement them.

    Either we are doing a Canada and announcing a "new" deal which provides continuity. Or we are throwing a one line bill at Parliament to extend. Or we see the border shut down. As most Brexity punters wouldn't know what trade is if it was slipping them one, surely the path of least resistance is continuity.

    The ERG will hate it, but if they hate it too much they can always be slung out of the party. The press will roundly back BJ and his patriotic triumph. The Nigel will huff and puff but "we got a deal" will be thrown back in his face and are punters really doing to go to war because the deal they voted for wasn't to the Nigel's taste?

    C'mon Shagger. Choose the colour of lipstip for the pig and lets get on with it.
    Of course we can delay.

    A one line codicil to the treaty extending the period to June 2023 can be agreed at 11:52pm on December 31.

    Treaties are amended all the time. This one can as well,

    We don't want a delay though, we want this done. It's been boring the tits off us for 4 years now. Enough. If this means in practice that everyone turns a blind eye for a few months until both sides get up to speed so be it. It really is time we focused on more important stuff.
    What precisely is more important than the future prosperity and stability of the UK? I mean I know these guys don´t do detail, but the consequences of such a dogs breakfast include an economic meltdown and permanent relegation to the also-rans.

    Not to mention the break up of the Kingdom.

    So TBH this "dog ate my homework" approach won´t do... Our guys need to be on top of this, and they are not and the consequences include a lot more than six of the best.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    So we’re in the endgame now. The Brexit trade deal must be agreed this week.

    Absolutely. Even by EU standards its now 7 or 8 minutes past midnight.
    No, we're way past that. Any deal now agreed that imposes customs and standards checks is impossible to implement by 1st January. We cannot legally delay. We cannot legally just ignore the new rules and not implement them.

    Either we are doing a Canada and announcing a "new" deal which provides continuity. Or we are throwing a one line bill at Parliament to extend. Or we see the border shut down. As most Brexity punters wouldn't know what trade is if it was slipping them one, surely the path of least resistance is continuity.

    The ERG will hate it, but if they hate it too much they can always be slung out of the party. The press will roundly back BJ and his patriotic triumph. The Nigel will huff and puff but "we got a deal" will be thrown back in his face and are punters really doing to go to war because the deal they voted for wasn't to the Nigel's taste?

    C'mon Shagger. Choose the colour of lipstip for the pig and lets get on with it.
    Of course we can delay.

    A one line codicil to the treaty extending the period to June 2023 can be agreed at 11:52pm on December 31.

    Treaties are amended all the time. This one can as well,

    We can legally. I made that point - a 1 line bill. However I don't think that is a politically survivable event for the PM. Failure and delay was what his failed predecessor did. BJ had an over-ready deal.

    The point that really needs hammering home with all of this is the damage being done to business. Whilst an 8 minutes to midnight amendment might be acceptable (!) in something like a treaty negotiation, this is trade. We are months and months past the point where business needed to know the confirmed arrangements. The cost of not having those agreed yet and the potential for 8 minutes to midnight shenanigans is something we will be paying for over the next decade.
    But that won't be what happens:

    December 12, Boris announces victory. A deal has been agreed with the EU, and all the important points are in place.

    However, it will take a couple of weeks to get all the i's dotted and the t's crossed, plus it has to go through 20-odd countries, and therefore we'll be putting in place a quick extension.

    And let's just all rejoice that a deal - and not just any deal, but a deal favourable to Britain - has been agreed.
    Absolutely.

    Once a deal is agreed there is no reason not to have an "implementation" period to "transition" to the new arrangements. But the negotiations will be over.

    The insanity of the sequencing May agreed with the EU was that we went into a transition without having a clue what we were transitioning into. If we get a deal now then a further six month to a year transition into the working new arrangements would be entirely reasonable.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,421

    Scott_xP said:
    Labour has a real problem here. Many many of their non-cult MPs genuinely believe their job includes the prevention of harm to their constituents. Yes I know that many now ex-MPs tried to protect their constituents who angrily voted them out in favour of self-harm. I know several of the now ex-MPs who are quite content that they did the right thing.

    So it depends on the deal. If we get the continuity EEA pig lipstick deal that I expect, Labour MPs won't have that big a problem supporting it. If the deal is one that guarantees the closure of Nissan (as an example) then why would a Labour MP especially one up here vote for it? Yes many of their constituents don't believe the coming harm (though less of them than before), but once a bad deal harms them they will go apoplectic, and sophistry arguments about "eugh its the Tories deal not ours" won't cut it if they voted for it.
    There’s no problem. The choice is either a “deal” or “no deal”. One is objectively more harmful than the other.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,055
    Cicero said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    So we’re in the endgame now. The Brexit trade deal must be agreed this week.

    Absolutely. Even by EU standards its now 7 or 8 minutes past midnight.
    No, we're way past that. Any deal now agreed that imposes customs and standards checks is impossible to implement by 1st January. We cannot legally delay. We cannot legally just ignore the new rules and not implement them.

    Either we are doing a Canada and announcing a "new" deal which provides continuity. Or we are throwing a one line bill at Parliament to extend. Or we see the border shut down. As most Brexity punters wouldn't know what trade is if it was slipping them one, surely the path of least resistance is continuity.

    The ERG will hate it, but if they hate it too much they can always be slung out of the party. The press will roundly back BJ and his patriotic triumph. The Nigel will huff and puff but "we got a deal" will be thrown back in his face and are punters really doing to go to war because the deal they voted for wasn't to the Nigel's taste?

    C'mon Shagger. Choose the colour of lipstip for the pig and lets get on with it.
    Of course we can delay.

    A one line codicil to the treaty extending the period to June 2023 can be agreed at 11:52pm on December 31.

    Treaties are amended all the time. This one can as well,

    We can legally. I made that point - a 1 line bill. However I don't think that is a politically survivable event for the PM. Failure and delay was what his failed predecessor did. BJ had an over-ready deal.

    The point that really needs hammering home with all of this is the damage being done to business. Whilst an 8 minutes to midnight amendment might be acceptable (!) in something like a treaty negotiation, this is trade. We are months and months past the point where business needed to know the confirmed arrangements. The cost of not having those agreed yet and the potential for 8 minutes to midnight shenanigans is something we will be paying for over the next decade.
    But that won't be what happens:

    December 12, Boris announces victory. A deal has been agreed with the EU, and all the important points are in place.

    However, it will take a couple of weeks to get all the i's dotted and the t's crossed, plus it has to go through 20-odd countries, and therefore we'll be putting in place a quick extension.

    And let's just all rejoice that a deal - and not just any deal, but a deal favourable to Britain - has been agreed.
    The problem is that even with a deal January is going to be one unholy mess. Doris has no way out now. He can shout that black is white all he likes but less than 20% of UK exporters are prepared, even if there is a deal. Without it is going to be 6.5% tariffs and a truck full of paperwork, most of which UK companies have not seen for 50 years.

    UK exports will drop drastically, prices in the shops will rocket and Sterling will fall out of bed... by the end of the first month it will be crisis summits and resignations.
    Why does nobody seem to relate border difficulties to the import of vaccine? Won't there be any problems with that?

    Good morning, everybody.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The election was rigged, but only against Trump...

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1333243285389914112

    TBF, accepting such a result would require his acknowledging that he is a steaming pile of toxic ordure.

    If only he could take Darwin’s advice.

    https://twitter.com/mattzieger/status/1333268294661406721

    We "value" those who show constancy of belief, when the reality is that those who can change their mind are far more likely to be successful.

    It's funny: fund management is one of the few professions in which being willing and able to change your mind is considered important.
    Will send you an email later - interested in your thoughts
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,894
    AnneJGP said:

    Why does nobody seem to relate border difficulties to the import of vaccine? Won't there be any problems with that?

    Good morning, everybody.

    IIRC the Government have said they will fly vaccines in to avoid the lorry parks
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Nigelb said:

    I do wonder if we’d have done better to have a one week quarantine period, which even if marginally less effective might have been far better observed ?

    https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1333164953918967815

    Are testing lines backlogged and results taking days? That’s not what @Foxy and a couple of others posted about their experiences
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,573
    edited November 2020
    Scott_xP said:

    Most people in Britain were brought up in a country that offered the faint hope of justice. The police would investigate corruption, if only occasionally. Politicians would dodge and weave but avoid flat-out lies. Political parties had moral standards, however flexible, and if a minister disgraced himself or herself they could resign. Opposition politicians, journalists, satirists, charities and alliances of concerned citizens worked on the assumption that if they exposed wrongdoing there was a chance it would stop.

    I don’t wish to romanticise the past. My small point is that we have not always been as shamefully governed as we are governed today. Countries change and not always for the better. Corruptions of public life in Britain that were once challenged now pass unpunished. The old codes that restrained the powerful have proved useless against politicians who say: “We can break them and no one can stop us.” Boris Johnson’s administration now lies as a matter of policy and a matter of course.


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/28/politicians-were-once-held-to-account---now-nothing-stands-in-their-way

    Boris is Trump. Both leaders have shown that what we thought were checks and balances, were not; that our constitutional and democratic conventions were just that, conventions. The only mitigating factor is neither Boris nor Trump is consistent or dogmatic, let alone evil, but this cannot be guaranteed of their successors.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IanB2 said:

    In other news, Biden has broken his foot, and the longgggg search for anything positive about Brexit may finally have turned something up:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/30/environment-to-benefit-from-biggest-farming-shake-up-in-50-years

    That’s been in the works from very early post the vote. The CAP (alongside CFP) is one of the worst things about the EU
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    So we’re in the endgame now. The Brexit trade deal must be agreed this week.

    Absolutely. Even by EU standards its now 7 or 8 minutes past midnight.
    No, we're way past that. Any deal now agreed that imposes customs and standards checks is impossible to implement by 1st January. We cannot legally delay. We cannot legally just ignore the new rules and not implement them.

    Either we are doing a Canada and announcing a "new" deal which provides continuity. Or we are throwing a one line bill at Parliament to extend. Or we see the border shut down. As most Brexity punters wouldn't know what trade is if it was slipping them one, surely the path of least resistance is continuity.

    The ERG will hate it, but if they hate it too much they can always be slung out of the party. The press will roundly back BJ and his patriotic triumph. The Nigel will huff and puff but "we got a deal" will be thrown back in his face and are punters really doing to go to war because the deal they voted for wasn't to the Nigel's taste?

    C'mon Shagger. Choose the colour of lipstip for the pig and lets get on with it.
    Of course we can delay.

    A one line codicil to the treaty extending the period to June 2023 can be agreed at 11:52pm on December 31.

    Treaties are amended all the time. This one can as well,

    We can legally. I made that point - a 1 line bill. However I don't think that is a politically survivable event for the PM. Failure and delay was what his failed predecessor did. BJ had an over-ready deal.

    The point that really needs hammering home with all of this is the damage being done to business. Whilst an 8 minutes to midnight amendment might be acceptable (!) in something like a treaty negotiation, this is trade. We are months and months past the point where business needed to know the confirmed arrangements. The cost of not having those agreed yet and the potential for 8 minutes to midnight shenanigans is something we will be paying for over the next decade.
    But that won't be what happens:

    December 12, Boris announces victory. A deal has been agreed with the EU, and all the important points are in place.

    However, it will take a couple of weeks to get all the i's dotted and the t's crossed, plus it has to go through 20-odd countries, and therefore we'll be putting in place a quick extension.

    And let's just all rejoice that a deal - and not just any deal, but a deal favourable to Britain - has been agreed.
    Absolutely.

    Once a deal is agreed there is no reason not to have an "implementation" period to "transition" to the new arrangements. But the negotiations will be over.

    The insanity of the sequencing May agreed with the EU was that we went into a transition without having a clue what we were transitioning into. If we get a deal now then a further six month to a year transition into the working new arrangements would be entirely reasonable.
    Yes, saying it’s going to take a couple of months to get customs systems in order, is very different from saying we want to keep talking - after more than four years of talking.

    At some point, someone needs to draw the line, and it’s not going to be the EU side.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_xP said:

    IanB2 said:

    the longgggg search for anything positive about Brexit may finally have turned something up:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/30/environment-to-benefit-from-biggest-farming-shake-up-in-50-years

    Even this bit?

    The National Farmers’ Union warned that the speed of the reduction in direct subsidies was “high risk” and some farms could become unviable, undermining domestic food production.
    People benefit from the status quo like the status quo. Shocker.

    The money isn’t been reduced, it’s being reallocated. The NFU is saying “this bit has gone down isn’t it terrible” without adding “but this bit has gone up”
  • Cicero said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    So we’re in the endgame now. The Brexit trade deal must be agreed this week.

    Absolutely. Even by EU standards its now 7 or 8 minutes past midnight.
    No, we're way past that. Any deal now agreed that imposes customs and standards checks is impossible to implement by 1st January. We cannot legally delay. We cannot legally just ignore the new rules and not implement them.

    Either we are doing a Canada and announcing a "new" deal which provides continuity. Or we are throwing a one line bill at Parliament to extend. Or we see the border shut down. As most Brexity punters wouldn't know what trade is if it was slipping them one, surely the path of least resistance is continuity.

    The ERG will hate it, but if they hate it too much they can always be slung out of the party. The press will roundly back BJ and his patriotic triumph. The Nigel will huff and puff but "we got a deal" will be thrown back in his face and are punters really doing to go to war because the deal they voted for wasn't to the Nigel's taste?

    C'mon Shagger. Choose the colour of lipstip for the pig and lets get on with it.
    Of course we can delay.

    A one line codicil to the treaty extending the period to June 2023 can be agreed at 11:52pm on December 31.

    Treaties are amended all the time. This one can as well,

    We don't want a delay though, we want this done. It's been boring the tits off us for 4 years now. Enough. If this means in practice that everyone turns a blind eye for a few months until both sides get up to speed so be it. It really is time we focused on more important stuff.
    What precisely is more important than the future prosperity and stability of the UK? I mean I know these guys don´t do detail, but the consequences of such a dogs breakfast include an economic meltdown and permanent relegation to the also-rans.

    Not to mention the break up of the Kingdom.

    So TBH this "dog ate my homework" approach won´t do... Our guys need to be on top of this, and they are not and the consequences include a lot more than six of the best.
    Democracy and the ability to choose who sets our laws, and the ability to change our mind, is far more important than stability and prosperity.

    Dictators have stability as there's none of that pesky democracy and risk of losing elections to upset the apple cart.

    Instability is a strength not a weakness of democratic systems. It allows us to try different paths - and to correct course when we go down the wrong path (like the Americans electing Trump).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    AnneJGP said:

    Cicero said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    So we’re in the endgame now. The Brexit trade deal must be agreed this week.

    Absolutely. Even by EU standards its now 7 or 8 minutes past midnight.
    No, we're way past that. Any deal now agreed that imposes customs and standards checks is impossible to implement by 1st January. We cannot legally delay. We cannot legally just ignore the new rules and not implement them.

    Either we are doing a Canada and announcing a "new" deal which provides continuity. Or we are throwing a one line bill at Parliament to extend. Or we see the border shut down. As most Brexity punters wouldn't know what trade is if it was slipping them one, surely the path of least resistance is continuity.

    The ERG will hate it, but if they hate it too much they can always be slung out of the party. The press will roundly back BJ and his patriotic triumph. The Nigel will huff and puff but "we got a deal" will be thrown back in his face and are punters really doing to go to war because the deal they voted for wasn't to the Nigel's taste?

    C'mon Shagger. Choose the colour of lipstip for the pig and lets get on with it.
    Of course we can delay.

    A one line codicil to the treaty extending the period to June 2023 can be agreed at 11:52pm on December 31.

    Treaties are amended all the time. This one can as well,

    We can legally. I made that point - a 1 line bill. However I don't think that is a politically survivable event for the PM. Failure and delay was what his failed predecessor did. BJ had an over-ready deal.

    The point that really needs hammering home with all of this is the damage being done to business. Whilst an 8 minutes to midnight amendment might be acceptable (!) in something like a treaty negotiation, this is trade. We are months and months past the point where business needed to know the confirmed arrangements. The cost of not having those agreed yet and the potential for 8 minutes to midnight shenanigans is something we will be paying for over the next decade.
    But that won't be what happens:

    December 12, Boris announces victory. A deal has been agreed with the EU, and all the important points are in place.

    However, it will take a couple of weeks to get all the i's dotted and the t's crossed, plus it has to go through 20-odd countries, and therefore we'll be putting in place a quick extension.

    And let's just all rejoice that a deal - and not just any deal, but a deal favourable to Britain - has been agreed.
    The problem is that even with a deal January is going to be one unholy mess. Doris has no way out now. He can shout that black is white all he likes but less than 20% of UK exporters are prepared, even if there is a deal. Without it is going to be 6.5% tariffs and a truck full of paperwork, most of which UK companies have not seen for 50 years.

    UK exports will drop drastically, prices in the shops will rocket and Sterling will fall out of bed... by the end of the first month it will be crisis summits and resignations.
    Why does nobody seem to relate border difficulties to the import of vaccine? Won't there be any problems with that?

    Good morning, everybody.
    The military are doing the logistics, so any vaccine that needs to be imported will likely be flown in by the RAF - as was the case with PPE earlier in the year
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,894

    The only mitigating factor is neither Boris nor Trump is consistent or dogmatic, let alone evil,

    To a degree

    Trump appears consistent and dogmatic in pursuit of self-enrichment.

    BoZo doesn't appear to have made himself rich (yet) but his chums have made out like bandits
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    Scott_xP said:
    We're mentally weak. We don't like to be told that things are bad. We like people who say that spending billions will make the bad stuff go away.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    eristdoof said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The election was rigged, but only against Trump...

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1333243285389914112

    TBF, accepting such a result would require his acknowledging that he is a steaming pile of toxic ordure.

    If only he could take Darwin’s advice.

    https://twitter.com/mattzieger/status/1333268294661406721

    We "value" those who show constancy of belief, when the reality is that those who can change their mind are far more likely to be successful.

    It's funny: fund management is one of the few professions in which being willing and able to change your mind is considered important.
    But someone who flip-flops their opinion with every new bit of evidence will also not be "valued" nor should they be. And I'm sure your sucessful fund managers are not buying and selling shares based on every little up and down tick.

    You need find a way down the midde, to base opinions on good evidence but when the evidence shows that you need to change your mind you take that on board.
    A price change is not change in evidence.

    When you're a fund manager and you buy a company's shares, you hope they will do well. You are emotionally committed to their success.

    Some news comes out: if it's negative, you'll seek to minimise its importance - it was all in the price, you'll say; or it provides an opportunity to buy more.

    This is perfectly natural. But the consequence is that people become entrenched in their opinions.

    Successful fund managers are the people who can say "well, yesterday I thought Bayer was a fantastic investment, but now I realise it's a pile of shit".
    Bayer is and always has been a pile of shit. Cyclical heavy chemicals, agrochemicals in a world moving against them, a sub scale and underinvested animal health business (they got lucky there) and a mediocre pharma business.

    Any fund manager who was doing anything other than playing the cycle is certifiable
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,421
    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    IanB2 said:

    the longgggg search for anything positive about Brexit may finally have turned something up:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/30/environment-to-benefit-from-biggest-farming-shake-up-in-50-years

    Even this bit?

    The National Farmers’ Union warned that the speed of the reduction in direct subsidies was “high risk” and some farms could become unviable, undermining domestic food production.
    People benefit from the status quo like the status quo. Shocker.

    The money isn’t been reduced, it’s being reallocated. The NFU is saying “this bit has gone down isn’t it terrible” without adding “but this bit has gone up”
    We were told it will be sunlit uplands for everyone. I'm looking forward to these sunlit uplands for everyone. You better deliver.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,894
    Charles said:

    The NFU is saying “this bit has gone down isn’t it terrible” without adding “but this bit has gone up”

    Which bit of "undermining domestic food production" has gone up?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Biggly MCGA Fake News Alert

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55124286

    Imperial React Study - "Run alongside pollster Ipsos MORI"

    Prof Paul Elliott, who leads the study, said the data offered "encouraging signs" for England's epidemic.

    "These trends suggest that the tiered approach helped to curb infections in [the worst-affected areas] and that lockdown has added to this effect.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,695

    Scott_xP said:

    Most people in Britain were brought up in a country that offered the faint hope of justice. The police would investigate corruption, if only occasionally. Politicians would dodge and weave but avoid flat-out lies. Political parties had moral standards, however flexible, and if a minister disgraced himself or herself they could resign. Opposition politicians, journalists, satirists, charities and alliances of concerned citizens worked on the assumption that if they exposed wrongdoing there was a chance it would stop.

    I don’t wish to romanticise the past. My small point is that we have not always been as shamefully governed as we are governed today. Countries change and not always for the better. Corruptions of public life in Britain that were once challenged now pass unpunished. The old codes that restrained the powerful have proved useless against politicians who say: “We can break them and no one can stop us.” Boris Johnson’s administration now lies as a matter of policy and a matter of course.


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/28/politicians-were-once-held-to-account---now-nothing-stands-in-their-way

    Boris is Trump. Both leaders have shown that what we thought were checks and balances, were not; that our constitutional and democratic conventions were just that, conventions. The only mitigating factor is neither Boris nor Trump is consistent or dogmatic, let alone evil, but this cannot be guaranteed of their successors.
    Very well said. Only bit I do disagree with is that I do think Trump is evil.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    In other news, Biden has broken his foot, and the longgggg search for anything positive about Brexit may finally have turned something up:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/30/environment-to-benefit-from-biggest-farming-shake-up-in-50-years

    That’s been in the works from very early post the vote. The CAP (alongside CFP) is one of the worst things about the EU
    Yes, but the last time Gove gave some details of the direction of travel, he was very clearly nobbled by landed interests within the Tory party. It is good that the essential shape of the proposals has been preserved, if with a very slow phasing in.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,879
    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    In other news, Biden has broken his foot, and the longgggg search for anything positive about Brexit may finally have turned something up:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/30/environment-to-benefit-from-biggest-farming-shake-up-in-50-years

    That’s been in the works from very early post the vote. The CAP (alongside CFP) is one of the worst things about the EU
    Did you ever watch Malcolm Bradbury's The Gravy Train?

    Right: off to bed for me.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,879
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eristdoof said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The election was rigged, but only against Trump...

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1333243285389914112

    TBF, accepting such a result would require his acknowledging that he is a steaming pile of toxic ordure.

    If only he could take Darwin’s advice.

    https://twitter.com/mattzieger/status/1333268294661406721

    We "value" those who show constancy of belief, when the reality is that those who can change their mind are far more likely to be successful.

    It's funny: fund management is one of the few professions in which being willing and able to change your mind is considered important.
    But someone who flip-flops their opinion with every new bit of evidence will also not be "valued" nor should they be. And I'm sure your sucessful fund managers are not buying and selling shares based on every little up and down tick.

    You need find a way down the midde, to base opinions on good evidence but when the evidence shows that you need to change your mind you take that on board.
    A price change is not change in evidence.

    When you're a fund manager and you buy a company's shares, you hope they will do well. You are emotionally committed to their success.

    Some news comes out: if it's negative, you'll seek to minimise its importance - it was all in the price, you'll say; or it provides an opportunity to buy more.

    This is perfectly natural. But the consequence is that people become entrenched in their opinions.

    Successful fund managers are the people who can say "well, yesterday I thought Bayer was a fantastic investment, but now I realise it's a pile of shit".
    Bayer is and always has been a pile of shit. Cyclical heavy chemicals, agrochemicals in a world moving against them, a sub scale and underinvested animal health business (they got lucky there) and a mediocre pharma business.

    Any fund manager who was doing anything other than playing the cycle is certifiable
    I never owned Bayer!
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    More cynical politics from this rancid government . Couch the new subsidies under some tree hugging we love the planet but beneath this desperate spin many farms will go to the wall . Still hard to believe so many farmers fell for the Vote Leave lies . The Tories have for years been trying to reduce their subsidies whilst in the EU but still the turkeys voted for Christmas .
  • Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    So we’re in the endgame now. The Brexit trade deal must be agreed this week.

    Absolutely. Even by EU standards its now 7 or 8 minutes past midnight.
    No, we're way past that. Any deal now agreed that imposes customs and standards checks is impossible to implement by 1st January. We cannot legally delay. We cannot legally just ignore the new rules and not implement them.

    Either we are doing a Canada and announcing a "new" deal which provides continuity. Or we are throwing a one line bill at Parliament to extend. Or we see the border shut down. As most Brexity punters wouldn't know what trade is if it was slipping them one, surely the path of least resistance is continuity.

    The ERG will hate it, but if they hate it too much they can always be slung out of the party. The press will roundly back BJ and his patriotic triumph. The Nigel will huff and puff but "we got a deal" will be thrown back in his face and are punters really doing to go to war because the deal they voted for wasn't to the Nigel's taste?

    C'mon Shagger. Choose the colour of lipstip for the pig and lets get on with it.
    Of course we can delay.

    A one line codicil to the treaty extending the period to June 2023 can be agreed at 11:52pm on December 31.

    Treaties are amended all the time. This one can as well,

    We can legally. I made that point - a 1 line bill. However I don't think that is a politically survivable event for the PM. Failure and delay was what his failed predecessor did. BJ had an over-ready deal.

    The point that really needs hammering home with all of this is the damage being done to business. Whilst an 8 minutes to midnight amendment might be acceptable (!) in something like a treaty negotiation, this is trade. We are months and months past the point where business needed to know the confirmed arrangements. The cost of not having those agreed yet and the potential for 8 minutes to midnight shenanigans is something we will be paying for over the next decade.
    But that won't be what happens:

    December 12, Boris announces victory. A deal has been agreed with the EU, and all the important points are in place.

    However, it will take a couple of weeks to get all the i's dotted and the t's crossed, plus it has to go through 20-odd countries, and therefore we'll be putting in place a quick extension.

    And let's just all rejoice that a deal - and not just any deal, but a deal favourable to Britain - has been agreed.
    Absolutely.

    Once a deal is agreed there is no reason not to have an "implementation" period to "transition" to the new arrangements. But the negotiations will be over.

    The insanity of the sequencing May agreed with the EU was that we went into a transition without having a clue what we were transitioning into. If we get a deal now then a further six month to a year transition into the working new arrangements would be entirely reasonable.
    Yes, saying it’s going to take a couple of months to get customs systems in order, is very different from saying we want to keep talking - after more than four years of talking.

    At some point, someone needs to draw the line, and it’s not going to be the EU side.
    But on the evidence so far, it's not going to be the UK side either.

    The Johnson government made noises about walking in mid October. And in the summer.

    If Johnson wanted, he could have filibustered the Benn bill and got a clean, no extension Brexit last year.

    Now, if you were an EU negotiator, what would you conclude from these observations?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,421

    Now, if you were an EU negotiator, what would you conclude from these observations?

    Oh, I know this one. If I were an EU negotiator, I would conclude that Britain held all the cards.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,894

    Oh, I know this one. If I were an EU negotiator, I would conclude that Britain held all the cards.

    Like Trump managing to lose money owning a casino, it's remarkable that UK negotiators "holding all the cards" are still contriving to throw away the entire game
  • Scott_xP said:

    Oh, I know this one. If I were an EU negotiator, I would conclude that Britain held all the cards.

    Like Trump managing to lose money owning a casino, it's remarkable that UK negotiators "holding all the cards" are still contriving to throw away the entire game
    I think you're stuck in 2017. That's what your beloved May did.

    Now we have a leader standing up for the UK and playing our cards smartly, which is why Barnier is cross.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    IanB2 said:

    the longgggg search for anything positive about Brexit may finally have turned something up:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/30/environment-to-benefit-from-biggest-farming-shake-up-in-50-years

    Even this bit?

    The National Farmers’ Union warned that the speed of the reduction in direct subsidies was “high risk” and some farms could become unviable, undermining domestic food production.
    People benefit from the status quo like the status quo. Shocker.

    The money isn’t been reduced...
    Yes, but farmers will be expected to do a great deal of extra non income generating work in order to receive the same level of subsidies.
    That may or may not be a good thing overall, but pretending it will not impact the viability of a large number of farms is disingenuous.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509

    Scott_xP said:

    Oh, I know this one. If I were an EU negotiator, I would conclude that Britain held all the cards.

    Like Trump managing to lose money owning a casino, it's remarkable that UK negotiators "holding all the cards" are still contriving to throw away the entire game
    I think you're stuck in 2017. That's what your beloved May did.

    Now we have a leader standing up for the UK and playing our cards smartly, which is why Barnier is cross.
    And you’re still stuck in 2016, the day after the referendum.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509

    Now, if you were an EU negotiator, what would you conclude from these observations?

    Oh, I know this one. If I were an EU negotiator, I would conclude that Britain held all the cards.
    That we’re playing misère ?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,502
    Scott_xP said:
    That's a bit unfair. As EU members we obviously have had zero tariffs on everything from the EU, and vice versa. Outside the EU that isn't the case, and not likely to be. The willingness to reshape British agriculture to aim at the high end of the market (in terms of quality, environment and welfare) while cutting CAP-style subsidies to the big landowners purely for being big (the Queen, Khalid bin Abdullah al Saud and the Duke of Westminster will get by without our tax money) and protecting the industry with tariffs is a coherent strategy with a lot to be said for it. (Declaration of industry - I lobby for this sort of thjing in my day job)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_xP said:

    Charles said:

    The NFU is saying “this bit has gone down isn’t it terrible” without adding “but this bit has gone up”

    Which bit of "undermining domestic food production" has gone up?
    Old system

    - I will give you a flat payment if you own lots of land. I don’t care that it benefits massive agribusinesses and wealthy aristocrats rather than the struggling farmers and I don’t give a shit about the environmental damage caused by monoculture and emphasis on volume of production

    New system

    - I am going to give the farming community the same amount of money but instead of doing a flat payment based on land I will require done environmentally beneficial work in return. This will create a community benefit

    NFU (dominated by agribusiness)

    - “Food production will be undermined”

    Answer

    - yes. There is a trade off between hyperindustrialised farming and environmental damage. Where you are on that spectrum is a political choice.
    - I’m surprised that you want to subsidise wealthy agribusinesses to destroy the environment, but it takes all sorts
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_xP said:
    Shit. We’d better buy from the global market then
  • Scott_xP said:
    That would never happen here.

    Nor would it need to since our constituencies are to be decided not on population but on the number of registered voters, and preferably as out of date as possible because that favours the Conservatives.
This discussion has been closed.