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History isn’t going to be kind to Trump because of the manner of his departure – politicalbetting.co

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    Scott_xP said:
    So that LibDem revival was a mirage then?
    Think this came up at the weekend.
    Last week, everyone was reminded about Jeremy Corbyn.
    This week, almost everyone has forgotten about him again.
    Meanwhile, the gentle drift down of Conservative support continues.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,853

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Trump legacy -

    I agree with the Header that he's not helping himself in this regard. Mind you, I don't see how he could without undergoing a procedure which I don't believe is yet available - a complete character and personality transplant. Normally, when a political leader in the democratic world falls, I seek to find something good to say about them and their tenure. This applies as much to politicians of the Right as of the Centre or Left. In fact it applies especially to those on the Right since saying something positive about them virtue signals the objectivity and balance for which I am known. But here, with Donald J Trump, the 45th President of the United States, it is simply not possible. He has been a huge and unremitting disaster for America and the wider world, soup to nuts. There isn't a single positive aspect to his legacy. Worse even than that, he didn't even try to do any good. If I could detect just a shred of benign intention, albeit frustrated in delivery by a lack of intellect or competence, then I would jump avidly on that and highlight it, now he's going. But I can't because there was none. 100% self gratification 0% public service. Amazing. RIP Donald Trump. You made Boris Johnson look like Mahatma Gandhi.

    To be fair to Trump in terms of any positives under his administration, the economy grew pre Covid and he has started fewer foreign wars or launched fewer US airstrikes abroad than any US President since Carter (Biden will be more of a hawk against Russia and North Korea and in the Middle East outside Iran than Trump was), however Carter was also the last President to lose after only one term of his party in the White House
    He's been less of a disaster than I thought he would be but then I thought there was a real chance he might start a nuclear war so I set the bar pretty low.

    I agree with you about the lack of wars. I suspect the reason is that he just didn't understand foreign affairs so didn't meddle. (I believe Obama referred to him having the understanding of international affairs of a thirteen year old, which sounds about right.) When he did, it was to suit his domestic agenda. The Turkish Kurds episode was appalling and the US will be paying for that for decades. His Middle East initiative however seems to have done little harm and may possibly lead to some good when Biden picks up the threads.

    I can't give him a pass on the economy. He inherited a very healthy situation. Again, he didn't stuff it up but he did favor the rich corporations and did little to rebuild the country's ailing infrastructure. It was however a case of missed opportunities rather than malfeasance.

    The big downside was of course his perversion of the State and undermining of democracy. I remember Nixon and the concerns then that he was subverting democracy and the institutions of State but outside the Socialist Workers Party nobody reallly thought the US was turning into a despotism. For the first time in my long life I really worried that this might happen under Trump, particularly when he first indicated his intention to disregard the election result. I still do think it may have come to pass if the result had been a bit closer. It seems the danger has passed now though, whatever he (and Betfair) may think.

    He has been without doubt the worst US President of my lifetime, and quite possibly the worst ever. James Buchanan's long reign as holder of that unwanted title may be about to end.
    You don't get 73-74m votes by being the worst President ever.

    You're making it sound like the situation Trump inherited from Obama was generally positive. It wasn't. The US was embroiled in conflicts. It had let China run riot. It is also easy to forget how relatively easy the West and Russia could have got into conflict over Crimea and the Ukraine in the mid-2010s. With HRC as President, that could have happened. You'
    Oh yes you can, if you are a populist selling snake oil to suckers.

    It helps of course if your opponent is less than stellar, and the opposition Party has balled a lot voters off in various ways, but even so it remains true that you can fool an awful lot of the people an awful lot of the time.

    As for what Trump took over, I mentioned only the Economy, which was definitely strong. Other areas, less so, I agree. Hard to think of a significant area though where Trump's record has been indisputably strong.

    Golf, maybe?
    Economically, he did. Another myth is that most of the post-2016 success was due to Obama's policies. It wasn't - Obama steadied the ship post-2008/9 but employment participation rates saw a sharp drop off in the Obama period even as unemployment rates fell, and only rose post-Trump's election. Wage growth in the Trump administration post-2017 also accelerated from Obama times.

    Trump didn't get people to vote for him because they were dupes and too stupid to buy the snake oil. He won the votes because many people thought their lives were poor under Obama and Hillary represented much of the same.
    Trump was an economic disaster.

    All he did for four years was spend, spend, spend and blow the budget deficit wide open.

    He was totally fiscally irresponsible. Worst leader in decades. He blew the economy wide open with spending and deficits so high that it would make Brown, Callaghan, Wilson or Healey blush.

    Nobody who believes in conservative economics could support Trump.
    Wouldn't have been a problem, had it been spent on infrastructure.
    It wasn't.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,348

    Scott_xP said:
    So that LibDem revival was a mirage then?
    It's all MoE stuff.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,106
    eek said:

    felix said:

    I know that retailers failing is Bad News. And it is. But lets be honest, if someone has to fail, let it be Arcadia.

    I'm sure the staff will be touched by your concern.
    Arcadia was destroyed by it's inability to move in to ecommerce - I know Next had its catalogue and therefore had a better starting point than most companies but it does show how important the internet has become for sales.

    Arcadia will also take down Debenhams and between them probably a lot of shopping centres. A lot of tenancy agreements are based the named key and secondary tenants remaining there. And Arcadia / Debenham stores were often those named tenants.
    Debenhams already went under didn't it?

    Next has taken over the Debenhams anchor store at the Metrocentre.
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    Scott_xP said:
    So that LibDem revival was a mirage then?
    I'm not sure why Europe Elects still includes the European political party names when the UK no longer has any MEPs.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    eek said:

    felix said:

    I know that retailers failing is Bad News. And it is. But lets be honest, if someone has to fail, let it be Arcadia.

    I'm sure the staff will be touched by your concern.
    Arcadia was destroyed by it's inability to move in to ecommerce - I know Next had its catalogue and therefore had a better starting point than most companies but it does show how important the internet has become for sales.

    Arcadia will also take down Debenhams and between them probably a lot of shopping centres. A lot of tenancy agreements are based the named key and secondary tenants remaining there. And Arcadia / Debenham stores were often those named tenants.
    I don't dispute that - more than 90% of my shopping , excl food, is online even here in rural Spain but I can still feel sympathy for the hapless workforce.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,106

    Scott_xP said:
    So that LibDem revival was a mirage then?
    I'm not sure why Europe Elects still includes the European political party names when the UK no longer has any MEPs.
    Because the parties are still in their pan-European groupings, are they not?
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    eekeek Posts: 25,030

    eek said:

    felix said:

    I know that retailers failing is Bad News. And it is. But lets be honest, if someone has to fail, let it be Arcadia.

    I'm sure the staff will be touched by your concern.
    Arcadia was destroyed by it's inability to move in to ecommerce - I know Next had its catalogue and therefore had a better starting point than most companies but it does show how important the internet has become for sales.

    Arcadia will also take down Debenhams and between them probably a lot of shopping centres. A lot of tenancy agreements are based the named key and secondary tenants remaining there. And Arcadia / Debenham stores were often those named tenants.
    Debenhams already went under didn't it?

    Next has taken over the Debenhams anchor store at the Metrocentre.
    Debenhams has gone under twice recently - JD Sports were looking at rescuing it but arcadia were the biggest concession holder and with them gone there is a lot of space that can't be filled.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,371
    edited November 2020
    In political news I see that Priti Patel has unveiled her preferred solution to unwanted foreign migrants



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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631

    Nigelb said:
    Sounds like someone need to tell Slovakia that mass testing using rapid tests is wrong, immoral, won't work and spends resources on the wrong things.
    SAGE and PHE have a lot to answer for wrt to rapid testing. Even the one we've chosen is very expensive.
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    Scott_xP said:
    So that LibDem revival was a mirage then?
    I'm not sure why Europe Elects still includes the European political party names when the UK no longer has any MEPs.
    Because the parties are still in their pan-European groupings, are they not?
    Why? Seems strange thing to do.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,176
    Scott_xP said:
    LDs now polling the same as the Brexit Party and Greens, no longer the clear third party but back to 2015 ie with Farage snapping at their heels
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,961

    I know that retailers failing is Bad News. And it is. But lets be honest, if someone has to fail, let it be Arcadia.

    Arcadia failing "due to the pandemic" is like Woolworths failing "due to the financial crisis".

    No it failed because it had a rotten failed business model. The writing has been on the wall for years.
    If I remember correctly, Woolies massive killer was sticking to buying / trying to sell physical music, when everybody had gone digital. For the demographic Topshop goes after, fashion has gone the same way, its all about digital influencers pushing clothes that you can buy cheaper and quickly online via an app, without you ever going to a store.
    Plus 'fast fashion' online means having new product ranges every week nowadays, not goods for a season.

    Heard an amusing interview on the radio this morning while driving with an "influencer" who asked why Topshop failed said she'd looked at Topshop's website then looked again a few weeks later and 'it was the same products as last time'.

    Seems hard for me personally to understand the need to have new products every week but if that is what the consumer wants and expects then the consumer is king - or in the fast fashion world princess may be more appropriate.
    Good point. I have to say I find it quite odd, both idea of needing something different to buy every few weeks, but also that the youth are big into eco issues, very trendy to be vegan, unis banning beef etc, but then happy to buy throw away clothes.
    In fairness I believe they are taking much more of an interest in the resource aspect of clothing and fashion these days. And even buying from Oxfam is a potent recycling policy.
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,335

    Scott_xP said:
    So that LibDem revival was a mirage then?
    Terrible bar graphs - did the Lib Dems do this? What's the scale? Tories drop 1 point, looks larger than the Labour +3. FFS - get stuff right people!
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    Scott_xP said:
    So that LibDem revival was a mirage then?
    Terrible bar graphs - did the Lib Dems do this? What's the scale? Tories drop 1 point, looks larger than the Labour +3. FFS - get stuff right people!
    The chart comparison is to the election figures (con down 8 lab up 7)
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    FlannerFlanner Posts: 408
    felix said:

    I know that retailers failing is Bad News. And it is. But lets be honest, if someone has to fail, let it be Arcadia.

    I'm sure the staff will be touched by your concern.
    Arcadia accounts for almost all our income. But I'd still be delighted if the tosser's finally rumbled. I realise it's different for his staff - but he's polluted the industry.

    And his collapse has nothing to do with events in the US. But seeing the back of Cummings, Trump and Green in the same month must give more pleasure to more people than anything since the Wall fell.
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    RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    edited November 2020

    Scott_xP said:
    So that LibDem revival was a mirage then?
    I'm not sure why Europe Elects still includes the European political party names when the UK no longer has any MEPs.
    It does do it with other non EU countries too if relevant as EU membership isn't a requirement to be affiliated to the European party. Take the Swiss, Icelandic and Russian examples here.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1279116266880610304
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,106

    Scott_xP said:
    So that LibDem revival was a mirage then?
    I'm not sure why Europe Elects still includes the European political party names when the UK no longer has any MEPs.
    Because the parties are still in their pan-European groupings, are they not?
    Why? Seems strange thing to do.
    Why? Swiss and Norwegian political parties have pan-European affiliations.
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    RH1992 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    So that LibDem revival was a mirage then?
    I'm not sure why Europe Elects still includes the European political party names when the UK no longer has any MEPs.
    It does do it with other non EU countries too if relevant as EU membership isn't a requirement to be affiliated to the European party. Take the Swiss, Icelandic and Russian examples here.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1279116266880610304
    Ta
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    Scott_xP said:
    The CEO of Qantas is already on the record saying they will change their T&C to require immunisation.
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    sarissasarissa Posts: 1,801
    Scott_xP said:

    Off topic, Joanna Cherry seems to be working herself and her followers up into a frenzy this am via twitter, she'll probably be on 3 figures for tweets and rts by the end of the day. Can we expect a putsch any day now?

    Perhaps she was emboldened by Nippy's desperate showing on Marr yesterday. Is there blood in the water?
    Voting for the SNP NEC seats ends shortly - major power struggle between the indy-first side and the more wokeish recent arrivals, fronted by Alyn Smith and others.
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,335

    Scott_xP said:
    So that LibDem revival was a mirage then?
    Terrible bar graphs - did the Lib Dems do this? What's the scale? Tories drop 1 point, looks larger than the Labour +3. FFS - get stuff right people!
    The chart comparison is to the election figures (con down 8 lab up 7)
    Well that's definitely not clear from what I'm looking at! :)
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    Scott_xP said:
    So that LibDem revival was a mirage then?
    I'm not sure why Europe Elects still includes the European political party names when the UK no longer has any MEPs.
    Because the parties are still in their pan-European groupings, are they not?
    Why? Seems strange thing to do.
    Why? Swiss and Norwegian political parties have pan-European affiliations.
    Fair enough. Looking at the ECR Party website it lists as members parties from across the globe including the GOP (grumble, I like many Tories currently feel much closer to the Democrats) and the Liberals downunder, the Kiwi's Nationals etc so no reason the Tories shouldn't still be members.
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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,686
    I said I would report back when I had the cause of death for my Uncle from the death certificate. Surprisingly it has been given as Covid 19 but with 4 contributing factors.

    It does seem odd and has perplexed my Aunt (sister not wife) as he went into hospital very seriously ill and without Covid.

    It is not quite as odd as someone being positive and then being hit by a bus and if Covid wasn't on the death certificate I would have been surprised, but prime cause of death?

    My wife wasn't much help in explaining as she hasn't filled in a death certificate for decades and as she said she wasn't there.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,995
    Scott_xP said:
    Are they even in those EU parliament groupings anymore?
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,348
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    LDs now polling the same as the Brexit Party and Greens, no longer the clear third party but back to 2015 ie with Farage snapping at their heels
    MoE, you naughty Tory!
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    Scott_xP said:
    So that LibDem revival was a mirage then?
    Terrible bar graphs - did the Lib Dems do this? What's the scale? Tories drop 1 point, looks larger than the Labour +3. FFS - get stuff right people!
    The chart comparison is to the election figures (con down 8 lab up 7)
    Well that's definitely not clear from what I'm looking at! :)
    Says it in tiny, faint type in the top right corner. Just above where it informs us that the next election is 2 May 2024
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    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I see the Teletubby daleks now have some competition for being the worst designed pepperpot space Nazis.
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    Talking of fast fashion, does Primark really need to be open 24hrs a day? Who is going clothes shopping at 2am?

    Some High Street shops will open 24 hours a day in December in a desperate bid to offset the £900million a day economic hit of the new tier restrictions.

    Primark has decided to open 11 shops around the clock, with other chains extending hours until late into the night.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8999697/Shops-including-Primark-open-24-hours-run-Christmas.html
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,348
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Are they even in those EU parliament groupings anymore?
    No, we are no longer members of the European Parliament, at least not until Boris signs his trade deal with the EU.
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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,686

    Scott_xP said:
    So that LibDem revival was a mirage then?
    Terrible bar graphs - did the Lib Dems do this? What's the scale? Tories drop 1 point, looks larger than the Labour +3. FFS - get stuff right people!
    We do very good graphs. They may not be accurate, but they are very good.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,995
    edited November 2020

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Are they even in those EU parliament groupings anymore?
    No, we are no longer members of the European Parliament, at least not until Boris signs his trade deal with the EU.
    I think it would be more correct to link Labour with PES, which is the European-wide party, rather than S&D, which is the EU parliament grouping, for example.
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    kjh said:

    I said I would report back when I had the cause of death for my Uncle from the death certificate. Surprisingly it has been given as Covid 19 but with 4 contributing factors.

    It does seem odd and has perplexed my Aunt (sister not wife) as he went into hospital very seriously ill and without Covid.

    It is not quite as odd as someone being positive and then being hit by a bus and if Covid wasn't on the death certificate I would have been surprised, but prime cause of death?

    My wife wasn't much help in explaining as she hasn't filled in a death certificate for decades and as she said she wasn't there.

    Sorry for your loss.

    I wonder how this is dealt with in normal circumstances? If someone in normal circumstances goes seriously ill into hospital, acquires MRSA while hospitalised and dies with it, I wonder if the death certificate would name MRSA or the reason they were hospitalised in the first place?
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,348
    edited November 2020

    Talking of fast fashion, does Primark really need to be open 24hrs a day? Who is going clothes shopping at 2am?

    Some High Street shops will open 24 hours a day in December in a desperate bid to offset the £900million a day economic hit of the new tier restrictions.

    Primark has decided to open 11 shops around the clock, with other chains extending hours until late into the night.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8999697/Shops-including-Primark-open-24-hours-run-Christmas.html

    Night clubbers? They have nowhere else to go.
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    kjh said:

    Scott_xP said:
    So that LibDem revival was a mirage then?
    Terrible bar graphs - did the Lib Dems do this? What's the scale? Tories drop 1 point, looks larger than the Labour +3. FFS - get stuff right people!
    We do very good graphs. They may not be accurate, but they are very good.
    You do the greatest graphs. Bigly. They are truly Trumpian.
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    Talking of fast fashion, does Primark really need to be open 24hrs a day? Who is going clothes shopping at 2am?

    Some High Street shops will open 24 hours a day in December in a desperate bid to offset the £900million a day economic hit of the new tier restrictions.

    Primark has decided to open 11 shops around the clock, with other chains extending hours until late into the night.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8999697/Shops-including-Primark-open-24-hours-run-Christmas.html

    Seems like a good idea to allow more social distancing.

    Plus as someone who used to work nightshifts, it would have been appreciated by me had that been allowed then. If its profitable for the business to trade I see no reason eg shift workers etc who want to go shopping at night socially distanced should be forced to squeeze in with everyone else during the peak shopping periods.
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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,686

    kjh said:

    I said I would report back when I had the cause of death for my Uncle from the death certificate. Surprisingly it has been given as Covid 19 but with 4 contributing factors.

    It does seem odd and has perplexed my Aunt (sister not wife) as he went into hospital very seriously ill and without Covid.

    It is not quite as odd as someone being positive and then being hit by a bus and if Covid wasn't on the death certificate I would have been surprised, but prime cause of death?

    My wife wasn't much help in explaining as she hasn't filled in a death certificate for decades and as she said she wasn't there.

    Sorry for your loss.

    I wonder how this is dealt with in normal circumstances? If someone in normal circumstances goes seriously ill into hospital, acquires MRSA while hospitalised and dies with it, I wonder if the death certificate would name MRSA or the reason they were hospitalised in the first place?
    Thank you Philip. He was 92 and very frail. It wasn't a surprise.
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    FlannerFlanner Posts: 408

    Talking of fast fashion, does Primark really need to be open 24hrs a day? Who is going clothes shopping at 2am?

    Some High Street shops will open 24 hours a day in December in a desperate bid to offset the £900million a day economic hit of the new tier restrictions.

    Primark has decided to open 11 shops around the clock, with other chains extending hours until late into the night.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8999697/Shops-including-Primark-open-24-hours-run-Christmas.html

    If Primark wants to open at 2 am there'll be a need, like taking deliveries in stores engineered for minimal warehousing space.

    You don't get to be the world's most profitable clothing retailer by being profligate with staff costs. Only a complete ignoramus about retail would ask such a stupid question.

    They're not a prodigal incompetent like Amazon, you know
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,627
    A question (genuine)

    Why is it that the wipeout of

    - night clubs (will probably be 100% closed for a year)
    - pubs
    - high street retail

    are different?

    I mean this is the sense of exploring why we have different views of the value of each.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,231
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway, next year in March and April the government wants to send lots of strangers to peoples’ doors as part of the census. I know because a family member was asked if they would like to do this job.

    Yes, really. In the middle of a pandemic, halfway through a vaccination programme (if all goes well) we are meant to open our doors to strangers and those working on this are supposed to put themselves at risk.

    WTAF?!

    They can knock on the door and then step back 8-10 feet before it is opened, if they need to do it in person as will be the case to a degree. Among other precautions I am sure they can take.

    Censuses are important so the risk ratio must reflect that, and the difficulties not insurmountable. This is exactly the kind of unreasonable criticism that undermines the valid criticism elsewhere on procurement and so on. What criticism might afford to the idea is not in 'WTAF' territory.
    Why not wait until after the vaccination programme? Rather than have people shouting at householders from 8 - 10 feet away.

    Which got a bit of a WTAF reaction from me, though it did make me laugh too. So thank you.
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,736
    edited November 2020
    kjh said:

    I said I would report back when I had the cause of death for my Uncle from the death certificate. Surprisingly it has been given as Covid 19 but with 4 contributing factors.

    It does seem odd and has perplexed my Aunt (sister not wife) as he went into hospital very seriously ill and without Covid.

    It is not quite as odd as someone being positive and then being hit by a bus and if Covid wasn't on the death certificate I would have been surprised, but prime cause of death?

    My wife wasn't much help in explaining as she hasn't filled in a death certificate for decades and as she said she wasn't there.

    This seems wrong to me. Many have suspected that covid deaths have been massaged upwards since the start of this - your uncle`s case does make me wonder...

    I`d question this if I were you.
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    Stocky said:

    kjh said:

    I said I would report back when I had the cause of death for my Uncle from the death certificate. Surprisingly it has been given as Covid 19 but with 4 contributing factors.

    It does seem odd and has perplexed my Aunt (sister not wife) as he went into hospital very seriously ill and without Covid.

    It is not quite as odd as someone being positive and then being hit by a bus and if Covid wasn't on the death certificate I would have been surprised, but prime cause of death?

    My wife wasn't much help in explaining as she hasn't filled in a death certificate for decades and as she said she wasn't there.

    This seems wrong to me. Many have suspected that covid deaths have been massaged upwards since the start of this - your uncle`s case does make me wonder...

    I`d question this if I were you.
    Excess deaths will be the only way to get true figures.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,745
    Today I have learnt:

    1. There is someone called "Rita Ora".
    2. She is a dickhead.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,231

    A question (genuine)

    Why is it that the wipeout of

    - night clubs (will probably be 100% closed for a year)
    - pubs
    - high street retail

    are different?

    I mean this is the sense of exploring why we have different views of the value of each.

    Down to their lobbying power I guess. Plus an attempt to save the high street (misguided in my view). And so much of our economy is based around buying tat at Xmas.

    Plus everyone shops whereas not everyone goes to pubs or nightclubs.

    And compensating retail would cost v much more.

    The fact that retail can be done online whereas the others cannot does not appear to have entered Ministers’ heads.

    I also suspect that there is some Puritanism about the demon drink plus the community / social aspects of pub life - especially in rural communities like mine - is simply not known about or valued. It’s not all drunken students falling out of pubs in cities. This John Harris article - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/29/britain-pubs-value - is very good on this.
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    Today I have learnt:

    1. There is someone called "Rita Ora".
    2. She is a dickhead.

    I knew 1, also learnt 2, and found out 3. She sells tequila.
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,736

    Stocky said:

    kjh said:

    I said I would report back when I had the cause of death for my Uncle from the death certificate. Surprisingly it has been given as Covid 19 but with 4 contributing factors.

    It does seem odd and has perplexed my Aunt (sister not wife) as he went into hospital very seriously ill and without Covid.

    It is not quite as odd as someone being positive and then being hit by a bus and if Covid wasn't on the death certificate I would have been surprised, but prime cause of death?

    My wife wasn't much help in explaining as she hasn't filled in a death certificate for decades and as she said she wasn't there.

    This seems wrong to me. Many have suspected that covid deaths have been massaged upwards since the start of this - your uncle`s case does make me wonder...

    I`d question this if I were you.
    Excess deaths will be the only way to get true figures.
    Too much noise. Loads of factors go into excess deaths. We can`t compare deaths this year to last and conclude that any extra is due to Covid. What about this year to 2019, or to ten years ago. We`d have to use an average annual death figure as a comparison and make adjustments to that I guess. Dunno.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,577
    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Alistair said:

    Perform more airstrikes in Somalia than Bush and Obama combined == de-escalated.

    And a vast expansion of SF ops in Niger which have mostly gone wrong.
    I cannot imagine Niger comes up in western news very much, so he probably got away with that.

    Though on Somalia I see this story on the BBC

    A teacher and two other men have been executed by a firing squad in Somalia after being convicted of carrying out assassinations on behalf of militant Islamist group al-Shabab.

    Mohamed Haji Ahmed was a popular English teacher at a college in Mogadishu. He was also an al-Shabab assassin – known as Ilkacase, or Red Teeth – and was responsible for the killing of several senior government officials.


    Makes me worry about some teacher PBers.
    Ours aren't popular though, so probably safe. 😁
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,686

    Stocky said:

    kjh said:

    I said I would report back when I had the cause of death for my Uncle from the death certificate. Surprisingly it has been given as Covid 19 but with 4 contributing factors.

    It does seem odd and has perplexed my Aunt (sister not wife) as he went into hospital very seriously ill and without Covid.

    It is not quite as odd as someone being positive and then being hit by a bus and if Covid wasn't on the death certificate I would have been surprised, but prime cause of death?

    My wife wasn't much help in explaining as she hasn't filled in a death certificate for decades and as she said she wasn't there.

    This seems wrong to me. Many have suspected that covid deaths have been massaged upwards since the start of this - your uncle`s case does make me wonder...

    I`d question this if I were you.
    Excess deaths will be the only way to get true figures.
    True(ish). It wont tell us how many have died of Covid but will tell us how many have died because of the impact of Covid. Figures will no doubt be increased by accidents at home, suicide, people not being treated for other things or delaying treatment and decreased by road accidents, industrial accidents, etc.

    Whether Covid outweighs all these so significantly that it makes them immaterial I have no idea. Delay in diagnosis and treatment may be significant I am guessing.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,577
    eek said:

    felix said:

    I know that retailers failing is Bad News. And it is. But lets be honest, if someone has to fail, let it be Arcadia.

    I'm sure the staff will be touched by your concern.
    Arcadia was destroyed by it's inability to move in to ecommerce - I know Next had its catalogue and therefore had a better starting point than most companies but it does show how important the internet has become for sales.

    Arcadia will also take down Debenhams and between them probably a lot of shopping centres. A lot of tenancy agreements are based the named key and secondary tenants remaining there. And Arcadia / Debenham stores were often those named tenants.
    The Next Directory is a bit of an odd fish though - you have to buy it!
  • Options
    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 3,902
    edited November 2020
    Stocky said:

    kjh said:

    I said I would report back when I had the cause of death for my Uncle from the death certificate. Surprisingly it has been given as Covid 19 but with 4 contributing factors.

    It does seem odd and has perplexed my Aunt (sister not wife) as he went into hospital very seriously ill and without Covid.

    It is not quite as odd as someone being positive and then being hit by a bus and if Covid wasn't on the death certificate I would have been surprised, but prime cause of death?

    My wife wasn't much help in explaining as she hasn't filled in a death certificate for decades and as she said she wasn't there.

    This seems wrong to me. Many have suspected that covid deaths have been massaged upwards since the start of this - your uncle`s case does make me wonder...

    I`d question this if I were you.
    Unless he had a positive Covid test in the 28 days beforehand, his death wouldn't be included in the figures for Covid deaths despite Covid being given as the cause on his death certificate.

    But in any case, the excess death data indicates that, if anything, Covid deaths have been underestimated rather than overestimated whatever "many have suspected".
  • Options
    FlannerFlanner Posts: 408
    felix said:

    eek said:

    felix said:

    I know that retailers failing is Bad News. And it is. But lets be honest, if someone has to fail, let it be Arcadia.

    I'm sure the staff will be touched by your concern.
    Arcadia was destroyed by it's inability to move in to ecommerce - I know Next had its catalogue and therefore had a better starting point than most companies but it does show how important the internet has become for sales.

    Arcadia will also take down Debenhams and between them probably a lot of shopping centres. A lot of tenancy agreements are based the named key and secondary tenants remaining there. And Arcadia / Debenham stores were often those named tenants.
    I don't dispute that - more than 90% of my shopping , excl food, is online even here in rural Spain but I can still feel sympathy for the hapless workforce.
    "Arcadia was destroyed by it's inability to move in to ecommerce "
    Codswallop. No-one with half a brain believes that. Arcadia would have gone bust a lot earlier if it'd put more energy into online

    Even when opening specialist clothes stores in the UK was illegal, over half Britain's clothes sales were done in physical shops. And there's a really good reason the world's most profitable clothes retailers steer clear of online selling: it's unprofitable
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,106

    Today I have learnt:

    1. There is someone called "Rita Ora".
    2. She is a dickhead.

    I like Rita Ora. :)

    And that is her real name. She was born in Kosovo.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,032
    edited November 2020
    Cyclefree said:

    A question (genuine)

    Why is it that the wipeout of

    - night clubs (will probably be 100% closed for a year)
    - pubs
    - high street retail

    are different?

    I mean this is the sense of exploring why we have different views of the value of each.

    Down to their lobbying power I guess. Plus an attempt to save the high street (misguided in my view). And so much of our economy is based around buying tat at Xmas.

    Plus everyone shops whereas not everyone goes to pubs or nightclubs.

    And compensating retail would cost v much more.

    The fact that retail can be done online whereas the others cannot does not appear to have entered Ministers’ heads.

    I also suspect that there is some Puritanism about the demon drink plus the community / social aspects of pub life - especially in rural communities like mine - is simply not known about or valued. It’s not all drunken students falling out of pubs in cities. This John Harris article - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/29/britain-pubs-value - is very good on this.
    I agree. I would add that there is also a widespread aversion to change. More prominent, naturally, the older one gets.
    For this group, the High Street's woes are a very visible manifestation of a world that is changing faster than they would like. And does not resemble that of their youth. See the simultaneously, and contradictory complaints, when small family owned shops close and chains move in.
    This being one way of "saving the High Street."
    The response? "Not like that!"
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,106
    Flanner said:

    felix said:

    eek said:

    felix said:

    I know that retailers failing is Bad News. And it is. But lets be honest, if someone has to fail, let it be Arcadia.

    I'm sure the staff will be touched by your concern.
    Arcadia was destroyed by it's inability to move in to ecommerce - I know Next had its catalogue and therefore had a better starting point than most companies but it does show how important the internet has become for sales.

    Arcadia will also take down Debenhams and between them probably a lot of shopping centres. A lot of tenancy agreements are based the named key and secondary tenants remaining there. And Arcadia / Debenham stores were often those named tenants.
    I don't dispute that - more than 90% of my shopping , excl food, is online even here in rural Spain but I can still feel sympathy for the hapless workforce.
    "Arcadia was destroyed by it's inability to move in to ecommerce "
    Codswallop. No-one with half a brain believes that. Arcadia would have gone bust a lot earlier if it'd put more energy into online

    Even when opening specialist clothes stores in the UK was illegal, over half Britain's clothes sales were done in physical shops. And there's a really good reason the world's most profitable clothes retailers steer clear of online selling: it's unprofitable
    Tell that to Asos and Boohoo. Roughly 140m and 70m profits respectively in the last year.
  • Options
    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Today I have learnt:

    1. There is someone called "Rita Ora".
    2. She is a dickhead.

    I knew 1, also learnt 2, and found out 3. She sells tequila.
    She also has a sister, Kia Ora, who specializes in soft drinks.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,627
    kjh said:

    Stocky said:

    kjh said:

    I said I would report back when I had the cause of death for my Uncle from the death certificate. Surprisingly it has been given as Covid 19 but with 4 contributing factors.

    It does seem odd and has perplexed my Aunt (sister not wife) as he went into hospital very seriously ill and without Covid.

    It is not quite as odd as someone being positive and then being hit by a bus and if Covid wasn't on the death certificate I would have been surprised, but prime cause of death?

    My wife wasn't much help in explaining as she hasn't filled in a death certificate for decades and as she said she wasn't there.

    This seems wrong to me. Many have suspected that covid deaths have been massaged upwards since the start of this - your uncle`s case does make me wonder...

    I`d question this if I were you.
    Excess deaths will be the only way to get true figures.
    True(ish). It wont tell us how many have died of Covid but will tell us how many have died because of the impact of Covid. Figures will no doubt be increased by accidents at home, suicide, people not being treated for other things or delaying treatment and decreased by road accidents, industrial accidents, etc.

    Whether Covid outweighs all these so significantly that it makes them immaterial I have no idea. Delay in diagnosis and treatment may be significant I am guessing.
    Sorry for your loss.

    My first thought is that doctors take death certificates pretty seriously. It is a legal document and one that they are responsible for. So it is the medical opinion of one (or more) of the doctors directly involved in the case.

    Sadly, it won't be the first time that someone entered hospital and contracted (apparently) another illness and succumbed to that.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,298
    edited November 2020

    Flanner said:

    felix said:

    eek said:

    felix said:

    I know that retailers failing is Bad News. And it is. But lets be honest, if someone has to fail, let it be Arcadia.

    I'm sure the staff will be touched by your concern.
    Arcadia was destroyed by it's inability to move in to ecommerce - I know Next had its catalogue and therefore had a better starting point than most companies but it does show how important the internet has become for sales.

    Arcadia will also take down Debenhams and between them probably a lot of shopping centres. A lot of tenancy agreements are based the named key and secondary tenants remaining there. And Arcadia / Debenham stores were often those named tenants.
    I don't dispute that - more than 90% of my shopping , excl food, is online even here in rural Spain but I can still feel sympathy for the hapless workforce.
    "Arcadia was destroyed by it's inability to move in to ecommerce "
    Codswallop. No-one with half a brain believes that. Arcadia would have gone bust a lot earlier if it'd put more energy into online

    Even when opening specialist clothes stores in the UK was illegal, over half Britain's clothes sales were done in physical shops. And there's a really good reason the world's most profitable clothes retailers steer clear of online selling: it's unprofitable
    Tell that to Asos and Boohoo. Roughly 140m and 70m profits respectively in the last year.
    I see the two lads that are buying Asda are now also looking to buy Cafe Nero.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,843

    kjh said:

    I said I would report back when I had the cause of death for my Uncle from the death certificate. Surprisingly it has been given as Covid 19 but with 4 contributing factors.

    It does seem odd and has perplexed my Aunt (sister not wife) as he went into hospital very seriously ill and without Covid.

    It is not quite as odd as someone being positive and then being hit by a bus and if Covid wasn't on the death certificate I would have been surprised, but prime cause of death?

    My wife wasn't much help in explaining as she hasn't filled in a death certificate for decades and as she said she wasn't there.

    Sorry for your loss.

    I wonder how this is dealt with in normal circumstances? If someone in normal circumstances goes seriously ill into hospital, acquires MRSA while hospitalised and dies with it, I wonder if the death certificate would name MRSA or the reason they were hospitalised in the first place?
    The immediate cause of death would be recorded first, so perhaps "MRSA* Septicaemia" with the cause of admission as an underlying factor.

    The guidance is here:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/guidance-notes-for-completing-a-medical-certificate-of-cause-of-death

    So if hospital acquired Covid-19 was the immediate cause of death, then it should be recorded first. I think the ONS stats include both those where it is recorded first or as an underlying cause. For example could record as immediate cause of death as Acute Renal Failure, with Covid-19 as the underlying cause.

    *incidentally MRSA sepsis is very rare nowadays. I think my Trust had only a half dozen last year, compared to thousands a decade or so ago.
  • Options
    kjh said:

    Stocky said:

    kjh said:

    I said I would report back when I had the cause of death for my Uncle from the death certificate. Surprisingly it has been given as Covid 19 but with 4 contributing factors.

    It does seem odd and has perplexed my Aunt (sister not wife) as he went into hospital very seriously ill and without Covid.

    It is not quite as odd as someone being positive and then being hit by a bus and if Covid wasn't on the death certificate I would have been surprised, but prime cause of death?

    My wife wasn't much help in explaining as she hasn't filled in a death certificate for decades and as she said she wasn't there.

    This seems wrong to me. Many have suspected that covid deaths have been massaged upwards since the start of this - your uncle`s case does make me wonder...

    I`d question this if I were you.
    Excess deaths will be the only way to get true figures.
    True(ish). It wont tell us how many have died of Covid but will tell us how many have died because of the impact of Covid. Figures will no doubt be increased by accidents at home, suicide, people not being treated for other things or delaying treatment and decreased by road accidents, industrial accidents, etc.

    Whether Covid outweighs all these so significantly that it makes them immaterial I have no idea. Delay in diagnosis and treatment may be significant I am guessing.
    Actually lockdown probably reduces "normal" deaths not increases it, due to fewer on the road etc accidents.

    When South Africa went into lockdown originally they did so before Covid had arrived and they had dramatically negative excess deaths as a result - although that was a mixture of fewer accidental deaths combined with fewer homicides which is less of a factor here.
  • Options
    Scott_xP said:
    Has the govt updated their view that there are only planning to vaccinate over 50s, medics and vulnerable?

    Isnt that still the official JCVI policy, even if inevitably it will be offered to all at some point? How can be businesses consider making vaccines mandatory when the govt hasnt committed to offering it to all?
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,577

    kjh said:

    I said I would report back when I had the cause of death for my Uncle from the death certificate. Surprisingly it has been given as Covid 19 but with 4 contributing factors.

    It does seem odd and has perplexed my Aunt (sister not wife) as he went into hospital very seriously ill and without Covid.

    It is not quite as odd as someone being positive and then being hit by a bus and if Covid wasn't on the death certificate I would have been surprised, but prime cause of death?

    My wife wasn't much help in explaining as she hasn't filled in a death certificate for decades and as she said she wasn't there.

    Sorry for your loss.

    I wonder how this is dealt with in normal circumstances? If someone in normal circumstances goes seriously ill into hospital, acquires MRSA while hospitalised and dies with it, I wonder if the death certificate would name MRSA or the reason they were hospitalised in the first place?
    The cynic in me says No.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,627
    Cyclefree said:

    A question (genuine)

    Why is it that the wipeout of

    - night clubs (will probably be 100% closed for a year)
    - pubs
    - high street retail

    are different?

    I mean this is the sense of exploring why we have different views of the value of each.

    Down to their lobbying power I guess. Plus an attempt to save the high street (misguided in my view). And so much of our economy is based around buying tat at Xmas.

    Plus everyone shops whereas not everyone goes to pubs or nightclubs.

    And compensating retail would cost v much more.

    The fact that retail can be done online whereas the others cannot does not appear to have entered Ministers’ heads.

    I also suspect that there is some Puritanism about the demon drink plus the community / social aspects of pub life - especially in rural communities like mine - is simply not known about or valued. It’s not all drunken students falling out of pubs in cities. This John Harris article - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/29/britain-pubs-value - is very good on this.
    There is basically no effort being put into saving big retail at the moment - it is being allowed to collapse down to whatever floor will be found for the number of customers who want to physically shop.

    Pubs are being supported - there, at least is some political interest in doing something.

    Nightclubs - haven't heard anything for a while, apart from the odd please from an owner/promoted.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,032

    Today I have learnt:

    1. There is someone called "Rita Ora".
    2. She is a dickhead.

    I knew 1, also learnt 2, and found out 3. She sells tequila.
    She also has a sister, Kia Ora, who specializes in soft drinks.
    NZ says Hi.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154

    Today I have learnt:

    1. There is someone called "Rita Ora".
    2. She is a dickhead.

    I knew 1, also learnt 2, and found out 3. She sells tequila.
    She holds parties in lockdown. Tequila her friends.....
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,032
    kjh said:

    Stocky said:

    kjh said:

    I said I would report back when I had the cause of death for my Uncle from the death certificate. Surprisingly it has been given as Covid 19 but with 4 contributing factors.

    It does seem odd and has perplexed my Aunt (sister not wife) as he went into hospital very seriously ill and without Covid.

    It is not quite as odd as someone being positive and then being hit by a bus and if Covid wasn't on the death certificate I would have been surprised, but prime cause of death?

    My wife wasn't much help in explaining as she hasn't filled in a death certificate for decades and as she said she wasn't there.

    This seems wrong to me. Many have suspected that covid deaths have been massaged upwards since the start of this - your uncle`s case does make me wonder...

    I`d question this if I were you.
    Excess deaths will be the only way to get true figures.
    True(ish). It wont tell us how many have died of Covid but will tell us how many have died because of the impact of Covid. Figures will no doubt be increased by accidents at home, suicide, people not being treated for other things or delaying treatment and decreased by road accidents, industrial accidents, etc.

    Whether Covid outweighs all these so significantly that it makes them immaterial I have no idea. Delay in diagnosis and treatment may be significant I am guessing.
    Initial figures suggest no increase in suicides.

    https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4352
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,106
    edited November 2020
    The thing about nightclubs is that very few people depend on them for their livelihoods, other than their owners. Their staff tend to work only part-time and be students and other young people.

    Hence they are politically expendable.
  • Options
    Starmer said he still had concerns about whether the tiered system would work any better than the one in place before the national lockdown, and whether there was enough support in place for areas under tougher rules.

    Rolls eyes, good job we didn't go with his plan....
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,686

    kjh said:

    Stocky said:

    kjh said:

    I said I would report back when I had the cause of death for my Uncle from the death certificate. Surprisingly it has been given as Covid 19 but with 4 contributing factors.

    It does seem odd and has perplexed my Aunt (sister not wife) as he went into hospital very seriously ill and without Covid.

    It is not quite as odd as someone being positive and then being hit by a bus and if Covid wasn't on the death certificate I would have been surprised, but prime cause of death?

    My wife wasn't much help in explaining as she hasn't filled in a death certificate for decades and as she said she wasn't there.

    This seems wrong to me. Many have suspected that covid deaths have been massaged upwards since the start of this - your uncle`s case does make me wonder...

    I`d question this if I were you.
    Excess deaths will be the only way to get true figures.
    True(ish). It wont tell us how many have died of Covid but will tell us how many have died because of the impact of Covid. Figures will no doubt be increased by accidents at home, suicide, people not being treated for other things or delaying treatment and decreased by road accidents, industrial accidents, etc.

    Whether Covid outweighs all these so significantly that it makes them immaterial I have no idea. Delay in diagnosis and treatment may be significant I am guessing.
    Sorry for your loss.

    My first thought is that doctors take death certificates pretty seriously. It is a legal document and one that they are responsible for. So it is the medical opinion of one (or more) of the doctors directly involved in the case.

    Sadly, it won't be the first time that someone entered hospital and contracted (apparently) another illness and succumbed to that.
    Thank you.

    When you are preparing for someone to die who hasn't got Covid and then they get Covid and die and we are talking about a matter of a few days here it does just seem a bit borderline to put on as the prime cause of death.

    Having said that I did discuss it with my wife, who is a Doctor, but has not seen patients for decades now as she works in Drug Safety and she commented that she often struggled with what to put on a death certificate in many cases.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154

    kjh said:

    Stocky said:

    kjh said:

    I said I would report back when I had the cause of death for my Uncle from the death certificate. Surprisingly it has been given as Covid 19 but with 4 contributing factors.

    It does seem odd and has perplexed my Aunt (sister not wife) as he went into hospital very seriously ill and without Covid.

    It is not quite as odd as someone being positive and then being hit by a bus and if Covid wasn't on the death certificate I would have been surprised, but prime cause of death?

    My wife wasn't much help in explaining as she hasn't filled in a death certificate for decades and as she said she wasn't there.

    This seems wrong to me. Many have suspected that covid deaths have been massaged upwards since the start of this - your uncle`s case does make me wonder...

    I`d question this if I were you.
    Excess deaths will be the only way to get true figures.
    True(ish). It wont tell us how many have died of Covid but will tell us how many have died because of the impact of Covid. Figures will no doubt be increased by accidents at home, suicide, people not being treated for other things or delaying treatment and decreased by road accidents, industrial accidents, etc.

    Whether Covid outweighs all these so significantly that it makes them immaterial I have no idea. Delay in diagnosis and treatment may be significant I am guessing.
    Actually lockdown probably reduces "normal" deaths not increases it, due to fewer on the road etc accidents.

    When South Africa went into lockdown originally they did so before Covid had arrived and they had dramatically negative excess deaths as a result - although that was a mixture of fewer accidental deaths combined with fewer homicides which is less of a factor here.
    They also banned the sale of alcohol at the time of lockdown. Bet that helped reduce the death rates.
  • Options

    A question (genuine)

    Why is it that the wipeout of

    - night clubs (will probably be 100% closed for a year)
    - pubs
    - high street retail

    are different?

    I mean this is the sense of exploring why we have different views of the value of each.

    Of the three I would actually think pubs have the best future from here, especially village pubs, who can become a new type of village office hub in the daytime and restaurant/pub in the evenings and weekends.

    Nightclubs - not an expert but off feel even if current owners go bust, restoring supply will be do-able through laxer licensing laws (if desired), a lot have closed down for licensing reasons and would have continued to do so. New entrants would come post covid with a favourable license.

    High street retail is doomed regardless especially with business rates and the spectacularly stupid decision to exempt Amazon from our new online sales tax.

    So I would lend most support to pubs.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,843
    Flanner said:

    Talking of fast fashion, does Primark really need to be open 24hrs a day? Who is going clothes shopping at 2am?

    Some High Street shops will open 24 hours a day in December in a desperate bid to offset the £900million a day economic hit of the new tier restrictions.

    Primark has decided to open 11 shops around the clock, with other chains extending hours until late into the night.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8999697/Shops-including-Primark-open-24-hours-run-Christmas.html

    If Primark wants to open at 2 am there'll be a need, like taking deliveries in stores engineered for minimal warehousing space.

    You don't get to be the world's most profitable clothing retailer by being profligate with staff costs. Only a complete ignoramus about retail would ask such a stupid question.

    They're not a prodigal incompetent like Amazon, you know
    If a shop needs staffing overnight, for restocking for example, it is little additional cost to have a checkout open for any customers. It is why many supermarkets do 24 hours.

    Obviously helpful for shiftworkers and others working unsocial hours too.
  • Options
    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Not sure this has been posted yet, but ouch this has to hurt Trump:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/30/trump-losing-twitter-followers-biden-gains-them
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,298
    edited November 2020

    The thing about nightclubs is that very few people depend on them for their livelihoods, other than their owners. Their staff tend work only part-time and be students and other young people.

    Hence they are politically expendable.

    I think there is actually a surprising "supply chain" these days in live events. The owners often don't actually run the nights, they sub-contract out to event managements who are responsible for organizing, promote and run event nights, who then interact with agents, who have acts on their books etc.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,231

    Cyclefree said:

    A question (genuine)

    Why is it that the wipeout of

    - night clubs (will probably be 100% closed for a year)
    - pubs
    - high street retail

    are different?

    I mean this is the sense of exploring why we have different views of the value of each.

    Down to their lobbying power I guess. Plus an attempt to save the high street (misguided in my view). And so much of our economy is based around buying tat at Xmas.

    Plus everyone shops whereas not everyone goes to pubs or nightclubs.

    And compensating retail would cost v much more.

    The fact that retail can be done online whereas the others cannot does not appear to have entered Ministers’ heads.

    I also suspect that there is some Puritanism about the demon drink plus the community / social aspects of pub life - especially in rural communities like mine - is simply not known about or valued. It’s not all drunken students falling out of pubs in cities. This John Harris article - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/29/britain-pubs-value - is very good on this.
    There is basically no effort being put into saving big retail at the moment - it is being allowed to collapse down to whatever floor will be found for the number of customers who want to physically shop.

    Pubs are being supported - there, at least is some political interest in doing something.

    Nightclubs - haven't heard anything for a while, apart from the odd please from an owner/promoted.
    Ooh controversial.

    Retail is being allowed to operate normally.

    Pubs aren’t and such grants as there are go nowhere near covering fixed costs plus their staff are expected to live on 80% of their previous income.

    The nearest wet led pub to where I live - an award-winning one - now has turnover of 8% of normal. Takeaway sales - 8%. It will close until restrictions are lifted. That’s the brutal reality.

  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,843

    Cyclefree said:

    A question (genuine)

    Why is it that the wipeout of

    - night clubs (will probably be 100% closed for a year)
    - pubs
    - high street retail

    are different?

    I mean this is the sense of exploring why we have different views of the value of each.

    Down to their lobbying power I guess. Plus an attempt to save the high street (misguided in my view). And so much of our economy is based around buying tat at Xmas.

    Plus everyone shops whereas not everyone goes to pubs or nightclubs.

    And compensating retail would cost v much more.

    The fact that retail can be done online whereas the others cannot does not appear to have entered Ministers’ heads.

    I also suspect that there is some Puritanism about the demon drink plus the community / social aspects of pub life - especially in rural communities like mine - is simply not known about or valued. It’s not all drunken students falling out of pubs in cities. This John Harris article - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/29/britain-pubs-value - is very good on this.
    There is basically no effort being put into saving big retail at the moment - it is being allowed to collapse down to whatever floor will be found for the number of customers who want to physically shop.

    Pubs are being supported - there, at least is some political interest in doing something.

    Nightclubs - haven't heard anything for a while, apart from the odd please from an owner/promoted.
    A lot of music venues, theatres, events businesses have had only minimal support too.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,231
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    A question (genuine)

    Why is it that the wipeout of

    - night clubs (will probably be 100% closed for a year)
    - pubs
    - high street retail

    are different?

    I mean this is the sense of exploring why we have different views of the value of each.

    Down to their lobbying power I guess. Plus an attempt to save the high street (misguided in my view). And so much of our economy is based around buying tat at Xmas.

    Plus everyone shops whereas not everyone goes to pubs or nightclubs.

    And compensating retail would cost v much more.

    The fact that retail can be done online whereas the others cannot does not appear to have entered Ministers’ heads.

    I also suspect that there is some Puritanism about the demon drink plus the community / social aspects of pub life - especially in rural communities like mine - is simply not known about or valued. It’s not all drunken students falling out of pubs in cities. This John Harris article - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/29/britain-pubs-value - is very good on this.
    There is basically no effort being put into saving big retail at the moment - it is being allowed to collapse down to whatever floor will be found for the number of customers who want to physically shop.

    Pubs are being supported - there, at least is some political interest in doing something.

    Nightclubs - haven't heard anything for a while, apart from the odd please from an owner/promoted.
    A lot of music venues, theatres, events businesses have had only minimal support too.
    Yes - the effect on the arts is going to be quite something - and not in a good way.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,792
    edited November 2020

    Scott_xP said:
    Has the govt updated their view that there are only planning to vaccinate over 50s, medics and vulnerable?

    Isnt that still the official JCVI policy, even if inevitably it will be offered to all at some point? How can be businesses consider making vaccines mandatory when the govt hasnt committed to offering it to all?
    I think they've got a priority list for the vulnerable/over 50s - they just haven't got round to a priority list for those under 50 yet.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,577

    Cyclefree said:

    A question (genuine)

    Why is it that the wipeout of

    - night clubs (will probably be 100% closed for a year)
    - pubs
    - high street retail

    are different?

    I mean this is the sense of exploring why we have different views of the value of each.

    Down to their lobbying power I guess. Plus an attempt to save the high street (misguided in my view). And so much of our economy is based around buying tat at Xmas.

    Plus everyone shops whereas not everyone goes to pubs or nightclubs.

    And compensating retail would cost v much more.

    The fact that retail can be done online whereas the others cannot does not appear to have entered Ministers’ heads.

    I also suspect that there is some Puritanism about the demon drink plus the community / social aspects of pub life - especially in rural communities like mine - is simply not known about or valued. It’s not all drunken students falling out of pubs in cities. This John Harris article - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/29/britain-pubs-value - is very good on this.
    There is basically no effort being put into saving big retail at the moment - it is being allowed to collapse down to whatever floor will be found for the number of customers who want to physically shop.

    Pubs are being supported - there, at least is some political interest in doing something.

    Nightclubs - haven't heard anything for a while, apart from the odd please from an owner/promoted.
    In my opinion it's a broken model, and subsidising it would just direct money into the pockets of commercial landlords, where it would be fairly useless. There needs to be a shake up, with (in my opinion) a collapse in retail property prices and rents. That's the real issue for retail imo, not the internet.
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    A tale of three islands:

    It revealed that Guernsey and the Isle of Man’s more hardline approach to controlling Covid-19, which has seen strict travel restrictions virtually wipe out the virus in both islands, is still proving popular with islanders.

    Around 80% of people in Guernsey and the Isle of Man agree with their island’s strategy, compared to 42% in Jersey. Jersey is currently coping with 200 cases and there are warnings the island could be forced to go back into lockdown if numbers do not fall.

    Travel and a less restrictive self-isolation regime has been blamed for Jersey’s high number of cases.

    The survey found that a third of Jersey people had travelled off-island since the outbreak of Covid-19. This compares with 15% of Guernsey people and 17% on the Isle of Man.


    https://guernseypress.com/news/2020/11/30/15-of-guernsey-people-have-travelled-off-island-since-covid/
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,843

    Today I have learnt:

    1. There is someone called "Rita Ora".
    2. She is a dickhead.

    I knew 1, also learnt 2, and found out 3. She sells tequila.
    She holds parties in lockdown. Tequila her friends.....
    What a rum do! Far too whisky.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,995

    Scott_xP said:
    Has the govt updated their view that there are only planning to vaccinate over 50s, medics and vulnerable?

    Isnt that still the official JCVI policy, even if inevitably it will be offered to all at some point? How can be businesses consider making vaccines mandatory when the govt hasnt committed to offering it to all?
    I think they've got a priority list for the vulnerable/over 50s - they just haven't got round to a priority list for those under 50 yet.
    Why would they be ordering 100m+ doses if the plan wasn't for widespread vaccination?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,298
    edited November 2020
    I have a friend who used to run a live music venue. One of the most surprising things he told me was that at gigs it is completely standard for support acts not to get paid a fee for performing, and the worst offenders are often the biggest bands that you are paying £50 a ticket to see.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074

    I have a friend who used to run a live music venue. One of the most surprising things he told me was that at gigs it is completely standard for support acts not to get paid a fee for performing.

    Why is that surprising?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,061
    HYUFD said:
    LDs only double the Gammon? They don't deserve that.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,843
    edited November 2020

    kjh said:

    I said I would report back when I had the cause of death for my Uncle from the death certificate. Surprisingly it has been given as Covid 19 but with 4 contributing factors.

    It does seem odd and has perplexed my Aunt (sister not wife) as he went into hospital very seriously ill and without Covid.

    It is not quite as odd as someone being positive and then being hit by a bus and if Covid wasn't on the death certificate I would have been surprised, but prime cause of death?

    My wife wasn't much help in explaining as she hasn't filled in a death certificate for decades and as she said she wasn't there.

    Sorry for your loss.

    I wonder how this is dealt with in normal circumstances? If someone in normal circumstances goes seriously ill into hospital, acquires MRSA while hospitalised and dies with it, I wonder if the death certificate would name MRSA or the reason they were hospitalised in the first place?
    The cynic in me says No.
    And would be wrong!

    Whether fatal or not, MRSA Sepsis is recorded on the Trusts dashboard for national reporting as a performance indicator.

    Hospital death certificates are done by ward staff, and I have never known anyone be leaned on to record inaccurately.
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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,686

    kjh said:

    Stocky said:

    kjh said:

    I said I would report back when I had the cause of death for my Uncle from the death certificate. Surprisingly it has been given as Covid 19 but with 4 contributing factors.

    It does seem odd and has perplexed my Aunt (sister not wife) as he went into hospital very seriously ill and without Covid.

    It is not quite as odd as someone being positive and then being hit by a bus and if Covid wasn't on the death certificate I would have been surprised, but prime cause of death?

    My wife wasn't much help in explaining as she hasn't filled in a death certificate for decades and as she said she wasn't there.

    This seems wrong to me. Many have suspected that covid deaths have been massaged upwards since the start of this - your uncle`s case does make me wonder...

    I`d question this if I were you.
    Excess deaths will be the only way to get true figures.
    True(ish). It wont tell us how many have died of Covid but will tell us how many have died because of the impact of Covid. Figures will no doubt be increased by accidents at home, suicide, people not being treated for other things or delaying treatment and decreased by road accidents, industrial accidents, etc.

    Whether Covid outweighs all these so significantly that it makes them immaterial I have no idea. Delay in diagnosis and treatment may be significant I am guessing.
    Actually lockdown probably reduces "normal" deaths not increases it, due to fewer on the road etc accidents.

    When South Africa went into lockdown originally they did so before Covid had arrived and they had dramatically negative excess deaths as a result - although that was a mixture of fewer accidental deaths combined with fewer homicides which is less of a factor here.
    I suspect you are right. I remember before one of the Gulf wars newspapers recording American dead in the build up, but before it started, because of road accidents (a very small number, something like 2 or 3). It was then pointed out that the numbers of troops involved was so huge and that they were under such tight control that under normal circumstances the number of deaths would have been higher because of accidents, violence, suicide, etc which was the main cause of death for fit young men and that they could now not partake in many of the activities that caused these deaths.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    edited November 2020
    Mr. Urquhart, money made be selling music and merchandise?

    Edited extra bit: by*.
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    rcs1000 said:

    I have a friend who used to run a live music venue. One of the most surprising things he told me was that at gigs it is completely standard for support acts not to get paid a fee for performing.

    Why is that surprising?
    Because when you pay £50 for a ticket and there are say a couple of support acts, you presume they are getting compensated for performing for upto to an hour. Instead most hope to flog some merch and that they will gain enough popularity that they one day can have their own tour.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,061
    Scott_xP said:
    If she thinks that I don't see why people in the UK cannot think the same thing. I don't agree with them, and yes the impacts on the two sides will be different, but if in principle no deal can be better than a deal then it hardly seems fair to regard anyone saying it as putting forth an insane proposition. Those advocating no deal above even a good deal would be something else.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,627
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    A question (genuine)

    Why is it that the wipeout of

    - night clubs (will probably be 100% closed for a year)
    - pubs
    - high street retail

    are different?

    I mean this is the sense of exploring why we have different views of the value of each.

    Down to their lobbying power I guess. Plus an attempt to save the high street (misguided in my view). And so much of our economy is based around buying tat at Xmas.

    Plus everyone shops whereas not everyone goes to pubs or nightclubs.

    And compensating retail would cost v much more.

    The fact that retail can be done online whereas the others cannot does not appear to have entered Ministers’ heads.

    I also suspect that there is some Puritanism about the demon drink plus the community / social aspects of pub life - especially in rural communities like mine - is simply not known about or valued. It’s not all drunken students falling out of pubs in cities. This John Harris article - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/29/britain-pubs-value - is very good on this.
    There is basically no effort being put into saving big retail at the moment - it is being allowed to collapse down to whatever floor will be found for the number of customers who want to physically shop.

    Pubs are being supported - there, at least is some political interest in doing something.

    Nightclubs - haven't heard anything for a while, apart from the odd please from an owner/promoted.
    Ooh controversial.

    Retail is being allowed to operate normally.

    Pubs aren’t and such grants as there are go nowhere near covering fixed costs plus their staff are expected to live on 80% of their previous income.

    The nearest wet led pub to where I live - an award-winning one - now has turnover of 8% of normal. Takeaway sales - 8%. It will close until restrictions are lifted. That’s the brutal reality.

    The point I was making was that Big Retail and Nightclubs are heading for the chop (different reasons, maybe, but still). Without much of a political ripple.....

    No MPs campaigning on save Arcadia. Or "Stickies" (for those of a certain age and knowing Abingdon)....
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    RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788

    The thing about nightclubs is that very few people depend on them for their livelihoods, other than their owners. Their staff tend to work only part-time and be students and other young people.

    Hence they are politically expendable.

    This is an anecdotal example but from what I'm aware of, the culture recovery fund covers nightclubs and is definitely helping some of them.

    I vaguely know one of the managers of a local nightclub around here and what you say about the staff is true, but the actual nightclub itself has more than enough funds to get through to May/June due to the award from the culture recovery fund. You'd hope with a well executed vaccination programme we'd have nightclubs open again by May considering the government's noises about spring, but we'll have to wait and see.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,176
    edited November 2020
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    LDs only double the Gammon? They don't deserve that.
    It seems the Greens have now overtaken the LDs as the third party in London on a left of Starmer Labour platform and Farage's Party are on the verge of overtaking them in the rest of the country on an anti lockdown and anti tiers platform
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,298
    edited November 2020

    Mr. Urquhart, money made be selling music and merchandise?

    Edited extra bit: by*.

    Yes to merch, back in the day they used to hope to flog CDs or that it would encourage people to buy their album, but now with streaming, I think all it does it get people to stream 2-3 songs they like and because of the way most deals are organized via record company to the likes of Spotify, a small band gets square root of f##k all for 100,000 plays.

    You only make money by having the tour or being such a massive artist that you can strong arm your record company into paying you a larger % of the streaming revenue.

    I presumed (wrongly) at the very least they were getting a small percentage of the ticket price to perform as a support act on a tour, but apparently quite normal for that to not be the case.
This discussion has been closed.