Why not? I campaigned with Brooks in Braintree in 2001 and he is an intelligent man with significant private sector experience, he lost his position as an MP but no reason he cannot have more to contribute because of one error of judgement, he has also done a lot of good work with homeless charities
Why not? I campaigned with Brooks in Braintree in 2001 and he is an intelligent man with significant private sector experience, he lost his position as an MP but no reason he cannot have more to contribute because of one error of judgement, he has also done a lot of good work with homeless charities
I really don't know why someone would write something that makes them look so foolish.
Well Netflix do have form for kowtowing to a nation's monarchy, Dowden knows that.
Netflix has blocked an episode of a comedy show which is critical of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and his alleged role in the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi from streaming in Saudi Arabia after officials from the Kingdom complained.
The British Royal family has as much democratic legitimacy as the Saudi Royal family.
Yes, both houses do absolutely nothing except on the advice (actually, instructions) of a democratically elected government. No distinction whatever. Away with them! Let's adopt a system like the ones that brought Hitler, Putin and Trump to power.
I really don't know why someone would write something that makes them look so foolish.
Well Netflix do have form for kowtowing to a nation's monarchy, Dowden knows that.
Netflix has blocked an episode of a comedy show which is critical of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and his alleged role in the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi from streaming in Saudi Arabia after officials from the Kingdom complained.
The British Royal family has as much democratic legitimacy as the Saudi Royal family.
Yes, both houses do absolutely nothing except on the advice (actually, instructions) of a democratically elected government. No distinction whatever. Away with them! Let's adopt a system like the ones that brought Hitler, Putin and Trump to power.
Reductio ad absurdum from you.
As was pointed to you yesterday, the 1933 German election wasn't anything approaching democracy.
Why not? I campaigned with Brooks in Braintree in 2001 and he is an intelligent man with significant private sector experience, he lost his position as an MP but no reason he cannot have more to contribute because of one error of judgement, he has also done a lot of good work with homeless charities
The flattening off started at the beginning of November. ICU admissions are a 2-3 week lagging indicator, signalling that it started slowing down with the tier system. The ICU funnel will start reflecting the 4th November lockdown in this week's numbers.
The flattening off started at the beginning of November. ICU admissions are a 2-3 week lagging indicator, signalling that it started slowing down with the tier system. The ICU funnel will start reflecting the 4th November lockdown in this week's numbers.
I'm living in an area where the Tier felt like lockdown.
Starmer's lack-of-principle problem is exemplified by today's BBC story that "Labour" (doesn't say exactly who) have called for the suspension of peak time rail fares before Christmas. Anyone with a brain understands that differential fares are designed to smooth out demand throughout the day and optimise return on fixed investment. Only Labour seems to believe that by abolishing peak fares travel chaos will be "avoided".
I really don't know why someone would write something that makes them look so foolish.
Well Netflix do have form for kowtowing to a nation's monarchy, Dowden knows that.
Netflix has blocked an episode of a comedy show which is critical of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and his alleged role in the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi from streaming in Saudi Arabia after officials from the Kingdom complained.
The British Royal family has as much democratic legitimacy as the Saudi Royal family.
Yes, both houses do absolutely nothing except on the advice (actually, instructions) of a democratically elected government. No distinction whatever. Away with them! Let's adopt a system like the ones that brought Hitler, Putin and Trump to power.
Reductio ad absurdum from you.
As was pointed to you yesterday, the 1933 German election wasn't anything approaching democracy.
I wasn't aware that was pointed out to me but duh, what a shit point. You should relax the six-minute editing rule so that whoever made it can delete it and hope no one took a screenshot. You can only have corrupt elections if you have elections at all.
Lord Adonis with a rather dubious statement this morning, especially as it was not true in the case of Reagan, Bush, Trump, Obama, Cameron, May, Chirac, Disraeli or indeed Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer who were all first elected after 30, Starmer indeed not until 52 so a ridiculous 'rule'
And 6 months later, he did. Not a bad bit of prediction after all.
But Johnson deserves about as much credit for solving the Conservative Party's problems as Howard Kirk did for solving the problems of the University of Watermouth in The History Man.
The flattening off started at the beginning of November. ICU admissions are a 2-3 week lagging indicator, signalling that it started slowing down with the tier system. The ICU funnel will start reflecting the 4th November lockdown in this week's numbers.
I'm living in an area where the Tier felt like lockdown.
Sure, ultimately lockdowns reduce interactions between people but it comes with a huge economic and social cost. It's a very blunt tool to get viral transmission down and they should only be used to put systems and processes in place to increase testing and hospital capacity, to identify those who are positive and to be able to isolate them and test their contacts rapidly and isolate them if they also test positive.
The government has failed abjectly to do the latter part of that in the first lockdown. This is why we've resorted to lockdowns and tiered lockdown despite the huge economic and social cost they come with. Every part of the UK establishment from the government to the scientists to the opposition has failed the public. These lockdown measures should not have been necessary given the billions spent on the track and trace system and the months of advanced warning we had for the second wave and the fact that the UK is basically an island nation with very hard borders.
So, yes, lockdowns obviously work. The issue is that we've had to resort to them for a second time. We should not have been in this position.
Lord Adonis with a rather dubious statement this morning, especially as it was not true in the case of Reagan, Bush, Trump, Obama, Cameron, May, Chirac, Disraeli or indeed Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer who were all first elected after 30, Starmer indeed not until 52 so a ridiculous 'rule'
What is it with this Yeadon guy? From his claimed background, qualifications, and experience, he should know quite a bit. But everything his ever put up (from "Trust me, I can tell you from all my experience there won't be a second wave" back in September, from the garbled nonsense on false positives that would embarrass a first year undergraduate (I mean, you could simply cross-check the case numbers through July against tests to realise his claims were pure absurdity), to him claiming that somehow we've got 70%+ immunity already in October, to this again) has been barking mad.
It's not even coherent with itself, let alone observable reality. But he has to know that from his background, surely?
The flattening off started at the beginning of November. ICU admissions are a 2-3 week lagging indicator, signalling that it started slowing down with the tier system. The ICU funnel will start reflecting the 4th November lockdown in this week's numbers.
The peak for admissions seems to have been around the 11th November.
The flattening off started at the beginning of November. ICU admissions are a 2-3 week lagging indicator, signalling that it started slowing down with the tier system. The ICU funnel will start reflecting the 4th November lockdown in this week's numbers.
The peak for admissions seems to have been around the 11th November.
Yes and from this, the ONS and ZOE data it looks like the peak of the virus in England was actually about a week before the lockdown started so the tier system was working, though maybe more slowly than necessary.
I really do not go along with Alastair's premise here. To move from being circa 25% adrift of the Tories in March and April to a position where Labour is ahead in several polls represents a significant advance for Starmer - and one which few were predicting last Spring or earlier. Labour is far better placed than a year into the 1987 parliament under Kinnock - or a year into the 1959 parliament under Gaitskell. It is matching the performance of the Tories under Heath in early 1967 - a year into the 1966 parliament.
I agree with you.
Starmer has made a great start. A nightmare for the Tories. They must be pining for Rebecca Long-Bailey.
He is aided by his sheer brutal opportunism. Look at the "Stop wasting taxpayers money" tweet at the top of Alastair`s header. The brass neck of the bloke.
- The majority of grunt work in testing labs of all flavours, around the world, is not carried out be people with PhDs. - It is repetitive, boring work. Taught as a rote script. - There is a good deal of operations research in the area. Strangely (or not) for such repattive jobs, high skills are not an advantage. - Quality is controlled by doing sampling, cross checks etc. Not by employing PhDs to do routine lab tests. - Which is what happens at the Nightingale labs. Hence the catch of a batch of contaminated/off spec chemicals last week.
And 6 months later, he did. Not a bad bit of prediction after all.
But Johnson deserves about as much credit for solving the Conservative Party's problems as Howard Kirk did for solving the problems of the University of Watermouth in The History Man.
Yeah, yeah - if you're going to heap all the blame on him for every aspect of the pandemic, then he also gets all the credit for redirecting the Tories' fortunes from wipeout to landslide in a mere 4 and a half months after becoming Prime Minister.
I don't think anyone really disputes that, just whether people and the economy can take it for much longer.
There are quite a few people out there denying the effectiveness of lockdowns.
Or denying the effectiveness of any lockdown that has been imposed or is likely to be imposed - an entirely hypothetical lockdown they have just invented would the A OK....
IIt reminds me of what Herman Kahn said about problems that are sufficiently large and where the solution is large in effect as well.....
The flattening off started at the beginning of November. ICU admissions are a 2-3 week lagging indicator, signalling that it started slowing down with the tier system. The ICU funnel will start reflecting the 4th November lockdown in this week's numbers.
The peak for admissions seems to have been around the 11th November.
Yes and from this, the ONS and ZOE data it looks like the peak of the virus in England was actually about a week before the lockdown started so the tier system was working, though maybe more slowly than necessary.
But we were told by Starmer that the tier system had failed.
Something Starmer has to do in the near future, if there’s a Commons vote on a fig leaf Brexit deal, is to make sure that no-one in his Parliamentary party supports it. People have come to mean by ‘Brexit’ something that has long been wanted by Boris Johnson and a good few of his friends. But everyone forgets that the UK’s leaving the EU—as the govt was advised [note NOT mandated] to in the referendum—has never required what is now meant by Brexit. You really need never have been a remainer in order to stand opposed to where we've been led by the Tory right wing (with a little help from the Brexit Party as was). The electorate needs to know that it’s they who have brought us where we are. There will be plenty of evidence of the ills of the Brexit they've delivered from Jan 1st on. Labour must not be seen to have played any part in that which Brexit has come to mean.
The flattening off started at the beginning of November. ICU admissions are a 2-3 week lagging indicator, signalling that it started slowing down with the tier system. The ICU funnel will start reflecting the 4th November lockdown in this week's numbers.
I'm living in an area where the Tier felt like lockdown.
It was very different.
Shops were open, restaurants were open, gyms were open, golf courses were open.
The flattening off started at the beginning of November. ICU admissions are a 2-3 week lagging indicator, signalling that it started slowing down with the tier system. The ICU funnel will start reflecting the 4th November lockdown in this week's numbers.
The peak for admissions seems to have been around the 11th November.
Yes and from this, the ONS and ZOE data it looks like the peak of the virus in England was actually about a week before the lockdown started so the tier system was working, though maybe more slowly than necessary.
But we were told by Starmer that the tier system had failed.
The flattening off started at the beginning of November. ICU admissions are a 2-3 week lagging indicator, signalling that it started slowing down with the tier system. The ICU funnel will start reflecting the 4th November lockdown in this week's numbers.
The peak for admissions seems to have been around the 11th November.
Yes and from this, the ONS and ZOE data it looks like the peak of the virus in England was actually about a week before the lockdown started so the tier system was working, though maybe more slowly than necessary.
Especially when you take into account that only part of England was in the higher tiers.
With the reductions starting earlier in the North-West than England as a whole:
Yet Yeadon spent 30 years in R&D in medication for respiratory disease and the other guy is a journalist (Maths from Cambridge).
But Yeadon has an agenda, as you can tell by his pinned tweet.
He views Covid-19 as a deception.
And, from what Yeadon has confidently told us from his experience:
- There won't be a second wave (as of September). Comprehensively disproved here, and in Belgium, and in France, and in Spain, and in Poland, and in multiple states of the USA, and in Sweden, and in the Czech Republic, and in Austria, and in Russia, and in Turkey, and in Iran, and in the Netherlands, and in Italy, etc, etc, etc.
- There are either 0.8%, or 2.3%, or 4%, or even more false positives. Requiring that, say, of the 400 reported positives on one day in July, we'd need [checks notes], either 914 of those 400 to be false, or 2628 of those 400 to be false, or 4571 of those 400 to be false... that's quite hard to manage to get any sort of outcome. And that's not an isolated example. Looking from the first of June alone, every single day from the 1st of June to the 19th of September would have had to have more false positives than the total number of positives recorded if it was 2.3%. When someone's pushing a line that's so arithmetically impossible, it doesn't matter what their background - it's wrong. The number 914 is considerably higher than 400, whatever he is saying.
- I read a rambling claim from him that actually 70%+ of us are already immune and many places have passed the herd immunity threshold. But the second wave has been worse in dozens of places around the world that already got strongly hit in the first wave. And if 70% of us were immune already it would already be over. And it's rather obviously not. Not in loads of places that should be, by his claims, somewhere way past 100% immunity levels if you plug in their figures to his explanations.
Which is why my confusion - with that experience, he has to know he's peddling bollocks. Him claiming authority isn't going to make us conclude that 2,628 out of 400 results is false - it's not even a meaningful claim when you look at the numbers.
The flattening off started at the beginning of November. ICU admissions are a 2-3 week lagging indicator, signalling that it started slowing down with the tier system. The ICU funnel will start reflecting the 4th November lockdown in this week's numbers.
I'm living in an area where the Tier felt like lockdown.
Sure, ultimately lockdowns reduce interactions between people but it comes with a huge economic and social cost. It's a very blunt tool to get viral transmission down and they should only be used to put systems and processes in place to increase testing and hospital capacity, to identify those who are positive and to be able to isolate them and test their contacts rapidly and isolate them if they also test positive.
The government has failed abjectly to do the latter part of that in the first lockdown. This is why we've resorted to lockdowns and tiered lockdown despite the huge economic and social cost they come with. Every part of the UK establishment from the government to the scientists to the opposition has failed the public. These lockdown measures should not have been necessary given the billions spent on the track and trace system and the months of advanced warning we had for the second wave and the fact that the UK is basically an island nation with very hard borders.
So, yes, lockdowns obviously work. The issue is that we've had to resort to them for a second time. We should not have been in this position.
Encouraging people to take foreign holidays this summer was one of the most damaging things a government has done.
It would have been much cheaper to bung the airlines and airports a few billion to shut down and shut up.
Yet Yeadon spent 30 years in R&D in medication for respiratory disease and the other guy is a journalist (Maths from Cambridge).
But Yeadon has an agenda, as you can tell by his pinned tweet.
He views Covid-19 as a deception.
And, from what Yeadon has confidently told us from his experience:
- There won't be a second wave (as of September). Comprehensively disproved here, and in Belgium, and in France, and in Spain, and in Poland, and in multiple states of the USA, and in Sweden, and in the Czech Republic, and in Austria, and in Russia, and in Turkey, and in Iran, and in the Netherlands, and in Italy, etc, etc, etc.
- There are either 0.8%, or 2.3%, or 4%, or even more false positives. Requiring that, say, of the 400 reported positives on one day in July, we'd need [checks notes], either 914 of those 400 to be false, or 2628 of those 400 to be false, or 4571 of those 400 to be false... that's quite hard to manage to get any sort of outcome. And that's not an isolated example. Looking from the first of June alone, every single day from the 1st of June to the 19th of September would have had to have more false positives than the total number of positives recorded if it was 2.3%. When someone's pushing a line that's so arithmetically impossible, it doesn't matter what their background - it's wrong. The number 914 is considerably higher than 400, whatever he is saying.
- I read a rambling claim from him that actually 70%+ of us are already immune and many places have passed the herd immunity threshold. But the second wave has been worse in dozens of places around the world that already got strongly hit in the first wave. And if 70% of us were immune already it would already be over. And it's rather obviously not. Not in loads of places that should be, by his claims, somewhere way past 100% immunity levels if you plug in their figures to his explanations.
Which is why my confusion - with that experience, he has to know he's peddling bollocks. Him claiming authority isn't going to make us conclude that 2,628 out of 400 results is false - it's not even a meaningful claim when you look at the numbers.
Now that Anders Tegnell is persona non grata the Covid-19 deniers/lockdown sceptics need a new hero.
Given the second wave that is now long-running in the US, and its dreadful total case and new case statistics, it is remarkable that proportionately fewer people are now dying of the virus in the US compared to other countries and particularly the UK. We're chalking up daily death totals that are between a half and a third of those in the US despite the American new case numbers being anywhere up to ten times higher.
Granularity is your friend. There are 8 states over the 1,000 deaths/million with NY and NJ closing in on 2,000/m. My strong guess is the rest are just at an earlier point on the curve. Of countries, only Belgium and Peru have passed the 1,000 mark.
There would also be significant differences in reporting procedures. For example, there is rarely a single cause of death and some countries would be more inclined than others to attribute to Covid a death where it was only one of a number of factors.
My uncle died last week. He was 92 and very frail. He collapsed with very low blood pressure and was rushed to hospital. He had internal bleeding. We were warned to expect the worse. It was turned out to be stomach ulcers and was treated and it looked like he might recover. He then contracted Covid in hospital, although it wasn't clear he suffered symptoms (he moved to a bed that the previous person had subsequently tested positive), but under the circumstances how can you be sure. He had further bleeds and they withdrew treatment (he had previously requested this). They kept him comfortable and he died a few days later (info from my Aunt so 2nd hand).
We don't have a death certificate yet to know given cause of death but whatever it will clearly be ambiguous.
Sorry to hear this. But it sounds as though your uncle might have thought it a release.
Bit concerning that their capacity is at such pressure they are using beds from covid patients without (presumably) adequate cleaning though.
It's really appalling. One of the areas one would expect to really strengthen in the NHS due to Covid is effective cleaning systems.
Given the second wave that is now long-running in the US, and its dreadful total case and new case statistics, it is remarkable that proportionately fewer people are now dying of the virus in the US compared to other countries and particularly the UK. We're chalking up daily death totals that are between a half and a third of those in the US despite the American new case numbers being anywhere up to ten times higher.
Granularity is your friend. There are 8 states over the 1,000 deaths/million with NY and NJ closing in on 2,000/m. My strong guess is the rest are just at an earlier point on the curve. Of countries, only Belgium and Peru have passed the 1,000 mark.
There would also be significant differences in reporting procedures. For example, there is rarely a single cause of death and some countries would be more inclined than others to attribute to Covid a death where it was only one of a number of factors.
My uncle died last week. He was 92 and very frail. He collapsed with very low blood pressure and was rushed to hospital. He had internal bleeding. We were warned to expect the worse. It was turned out to be stomach ulcers and was treated and it looked like he might recover. He then contracted Covid in hospital, although it wasn't clear he suffered symptoms (he moved to a bed that the previous person had subsequently tested positive), but under the circumstances how can you be sure. He had further bleeds and they withdrew treatment (he had previously requested this). They kept him comfortable and he died a few days later (info from my Aunt so 2nd hand).
We don't have a death certificate yet to know given cause of death but whatever it will clearly be ambiguous.
Sorry to hear this. But it sounds as though your uncle might have thought it a release.
Bit concerning that their capacity is at such pressure they are using beds from covid patients without (presumably) adequate cleaning though.
Thank you and yes.
He/She wasn't a Covid patient. Found positive subsequent to leaving hospital. Wasn't a Covid ward. We are assuming (possibly incorrectly) that is how my Uncle got it as his home was clear. I presume that was why he was tested.
Sorry to hear about your uncle, it sounds a peaceful death.
It can be hard to untangle causation as you say, and in my Trust we have had several ward based outbreaks. Tracing doesn't often find a source.
All overnight admissions get tested for covid, no matter what they are in for, and I believe that is national policy. That would be why both your uncle and the other patient were tested.
The other possibility is that it was Covid-19 that caused the low blood pressure and internal bleeding. It is a recognised as a presentation. Covid-19 is much more than a respiratory virus.
The flattening off started at the beginning of November. ICU admissions are a 2-3 week lagging indicator, signalling that it started slowing down with the tier system. The ICU funnel will start reflecting the 4th November lockdown in this week's numbers.
The peak for admissions seems to have been around the 11th November.
Yes and from this, the ONS and ZOE data it looks like the peak of the virus in England was actually about a week before the lockdown started so the tier system was working, though maybe more slowly than necessary.
If we use
This would suggest that 10 deals earlier than the 11th - the 1st of November - was the peak infection rate.
The flattening off started at the beginning of November. ICU admissions are a 2-3 week lagging indicator, signalling that it started slowing down with the tier system. The ICU funnel will start reflecting the 4th November lockdown in this week's numbers.
The peak for admissions seems to have been around the 11th November.
Yes and from this, the ONS and ZOE data it looks like the peak of the virus in England was actually about a week before the lockdown started so the tier system was working, though maybe more slowly than necessary.
But we were told by Starmer that the tier system had failed.
which tier system, they change it weekly
Bit early in the day for the cask strength turnip juice. Back to the regular for you.
The flattening off started at the beginning of November. ICU admissions are a 2-3 week lagging indicator, signalling that it started slowing down with the tier system. The ICU funnel will start reflecting the 4th November lockdown in this week's numbers.
The peak for admissions seems to have been around the 11th November.
Yes and from this, the ONS and ZOE data it looks like the peak of the virus in England was actually about a week before the lockdown started so the tier system was working, though maybe more slowly than necessary.
If we use
This would suggest that 10 deals earlier than the 11th - the 1st of November - was the peak infection rate.
The Tiers were introduced on the 14th October.
Well you've also got the 5 days pre-symptomatic stage so it's probably slightly earlier still.
The flattening off started at the beginning of November. ICU admissions are a 2-3 week lagging indicator, signalling that it started slowing down with the tier system. The ICU funnel will start reflecting the 4th November lockdown in this week's numbers.
The peak for admissions seems to have been around the 11th November.
Yes and from this, the ONS and ZOE data it looks like the peak of the virus in England was actually about a week before the lockdown started so the tier system was working, though maybe more slowly than necessary.
But we were told by Starmer that the tier system had failed.
Were we? Well he seemed to convince Boris then, who replaced it with a lockdown.
I really do not go along with Alastair's premise here. To move from being circa 25% adrift of the Tories in March and April to a position where Labour is ahead in several polls represents a significant advance for Starmer - and one which few were predicting last Spring or earlier. Labour is far better placed than a year into the 1987 parliament under Kinnock - or a year into the 1959 parliament under Gaitskell. It is matching the performance of the Tories under Heath in early 1967 - a year into the 1966 parliament.
Hard to say, the pandemic is an unusual circumstance so as to make historical analogies unreliable.
We can look at other countries where the response had been sub-optimal -- Ireland, Spain, France, Italy.
It looks as though (with the exception of Fianna Fail in Ireland), the ruling party has so far escaped the savagery of the voters. Presumably, voters have concluded the opposition would not have done much better --- & judging from Wales, that is for sure true of Labour.
So I think maybe SKS has done OK -- but Boris has given him a lot of open goals, and SKS is not regularly slamming the ball in the back of the net. I also do think SKS needs some of Labour's old Scottish seats back, otherwise I don't think he can do it. The Welsh seats are being reduced in number, so he'll be lucky to stand still in Wales, numerically speaking.
I know you are very bullish on Labour's chances in Scotland -- but I don't think anyone else is
The big picture in a couple of sentences. Those who are desperate for Boris and/or the government to be 'in trouble' know that in a few months' time the stellar job that they have done on vaccine procurement is going to turn the national mood around and make all the current moaning about tiers and related bullshit irrelevant.
Indeed, Johnson has played a blinder over vaccine procurement.
Government Covid performance can be viewed as a University exam. 25/25 for vaccines, 7/25 for lockdowns, 7/25 for test, track and trace. 0/25 for post Covid economic performance (unfortunately, none of the questions studied came up!) is still a fail.
0/25 for post-Covid economic performance?
'No, Mexicanpete, no: Not even the first of the Britons can learn His British history in the future tense. Not even to serve your political turn; Hindsight as foresight makes no sense.'
It does seem a bit mental to judge the government on post-COVID economy when no one is really there yet.
It's also reasonable to point out that ONS GDP figures aren't comparable to EU GDP figures because of how the ONS counts public sector GDP output as output rather than input with a multiplier as it is in Europe and pretty much everywhere else in the world.
I think on the like for like comparison using a French style input multiplier UK GDP is at about -8% rather than -11%, still not great though.
Historical evidence suggests that the Government of the day will take the blame for economic fallout from significant disasters. It may not be their fault but that is a disadvantage of incumbency.
The big picture in a couple of sentences. Those who are desperate for Boris and/or the government to be 'in trouble' know that in a few months' time the stellar job that they have done on vaccine procurement is going to turn the national mood around and make all the current moaning about tiers and related bullshit irrelevant.
Indeed, Johnson has played a blinder over vaccine procurement.
Government Covid performance can be viewed as a University exam. 25/25 for vaccines, 7/25 for lockdowns, 7/25 for test, track and trace. 0/25 for post Covid economic performance (unfortunately, none of the questions studied came up!) is still a fail.
0/25 for post-Covid economic performance?
'No, Mexicanpete, no: Not even the first of the Britons can learn His British history in the future tense. Not even to serve your political turn; Hindsight as foresight makes no sense.'
As above.
Well we don't really know what the post-COVID economy looks like, if we get to 2024 with the economy growing and above where we end 2020 I think most people will consider that as a success and give the government credit for getting us back to health. You can't judge a post-COVID economy until we actually get there and part of that is vaccine roll out where we seem very well placed, the faster we roll the vaccine out to all age groups the faster we can reopen hospitality, tourism and venue based business such as conferences and sports.
One of the reasons the reasons England is in the running to host Euro 2020/21 is because the government thinks we can have the nation basically all vaccinated by then and allow full crowds at venues rather than empty or mostly empty stadiums that UEFA are planning on with the "festival of football" thing they're talking about. At the moment a lot of it hasn't been factored into the numbers.
What did we learn from the 2008 crash? It was generally considered that under the circumstances Brown and Darling handled the run on the banks as well as they could. The voters disagreed.
I am not pointing the finger at you Max. However, I find the earnest blind-faith optimism displayed by the.Boris /Brexit faithful that Brexit and Covid will have no more than the impact of an economic flesh-wound, as quite charming, in a concerned kind of a way.
In all fairness to Sunak, he has already smelled the coffee.
It's not optimism, there's also a key difference. Bank runs in the UK was down to badly run and badly regulated banks which falls at the feet of the UK government. A pandemic originating in China doesn't.
I also don't think Boris will be there in 2024.
Perhaps I was pointing the finger at you after all.
The harsh reality of incumbency is one takes the blame or the spoils in equal measure dependent on circumstances, and irrespective of direct action, good or bad.
The next few years, at least, will be brutal for incumbents the world over. It is slightly different in Scotland as they can pick and choose who they wish to blame, Holyrood or Westminster.
The flattening off started at the beginning of November. ICU admissions are a 2-3 week lagging indicator, signalling that it started slowing down with the tier system. The ICU funnel will start reflecting the 4th November lockdown in this week's numbers.
The peak for admissions seems to have been around the 11th November.
Yes and from this, the ONS and ZOE data it looks like the peak of the virus in England was actually about a week before the lockdown started so the tier system was working, though maybe more slowly than necessary.
If we use
This would suggest that 10 deals earlier than the 11th - the 1st of November - was the peak infection rate.
The Tiers were introduced on the 14th October.
Well you've also got the 5 days pre-symptomatic stage so it's probably slightly earlier still.
Sorry, yes. which puts it back to 26th October. Pretty much 2 weeks from the start of the Tiers.
Lord Adonis with a rather dubious statement this morning, especially as it was not true in the case of Reagan, Bush, Trump, Obama, Cameron, May, Chirac, Disraeli or indeed Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer who were all first elected after 30, Starmer indeed not until 52 so a ridiculous 'rule'
And Thatcher was almost 34.
I refuse to believe that 33 is not "about 30".
I'll let you call 33 'early 30s' as long as I can say 53 is 'early 50s'.
Hey. I have auburn hair, freckles and blue eyes. Do I get an Indyref vote? I have been to Scotland once.
One People, One Country, One Leader....
Yes, there was that chap - sorry, can't remember the username - who was very disappointed the other day I wouldn't accept Blut und Boden as a rationale for indyref2.
The big picture in a couple of sentences. Those who are desperate for Boris and/or the government to be 'in trouble' know that in a few months' time the stellar job that they have done on vaccine procurement is going to turn the national mood around and make all the current moaning about tiers and related bullshit irrelevant.
Indeed, Johnson has played a blinder over vaccine procurement.
Government Covid performance can be viewed as a University exam. 25/25 for vaccines, 7/25 for lockdowns, 7/25 for test, track and trace. 0/25 for post Covid economic performance (unfortunately, none of the questions studied came up!) is still a fail.
0/25 for post-Covid economic performance?
'No, Mexicanpete, no: Not even the first of the Britons can learn His British history in the future tense. Not even to serve your political turn; Hindsight as foresight makes no sense.'
It does seem a bit mental to judge the government on post-COVID economy when no one is really there yet.
It's also reasonable to point out that ONS GDP figures aren't comparable to EU GDP figures because of how the ONS counts public sector GDP output as output rather than input with a multiplier as it is in Europe and pretty much everywhere else in the world.
I think on the like for like comparison using a French style input multiplier UK GDP is at about -8% rather than -11%, still not great though.
Historical evidence suggests that the Government of the day will take the blame for economic fallout from significant disasters. It may not be their fault but that is a disadvantage of incumbency.
The big picture in a couple of sentences. Those who are desperate for Boris and/or the government to be 'in trouble' know that in a few months' time the stellar job that they have done on vaccine procurement is going to turn the national mood around and make all the current moaning about tiers and related bullshit irrelevant.
Indeed, Johnson has played a blinder over vaccine procurement.
Government Covid performance can be viewed as a University exam. 25/25 for vaccines, 7/25 for lockdowns, 7/25 for test, track and trace. 0/25 for post Covid economic performance (unfortunately, none of the questions studied came up!) is still a fail.
0/25 for post-Covid economic performance?
'No, Mexicanpete, no: Not even the first of the Britons can learn His British history in the future tense. Not even to serve your political turn; Hindsight as foresight makes no sense.'
As above.
Well we don't really know what the post-COVID economy looks like, if we get to 2024 with the economy growing and above where we end 2020 I think most people will consider that as a success and give the government credit for getting us back to health. You can't judge a post-COVID economy until we actually get there and part of that is vaccine roll out where we seem very well placed, the faster we roll the vaccine out to all age groups the faster we can reopen hospitality, tourism and venue based business such as conferences and sports.
One of the reasons the reasons England is in the running to host Euro 2020/21 is because the government thinks we can have the nation basically all vaccinated by then and allow full crowds at venues rather than empty or mostly empty stadiums that UEFA are planning on with the "festival of football" thing they're talking about. At the moment a lot of it hasn't been factored into the numbers.
What did we learn from the 2008 crash? It was generally considered that under the circumstances Brown and Darling handled the run on the banks as well as they could. The voters disagreed.
I am not pointing the finger at you Max. However, I find the earnest blind-faith optimism displayed by the.Boris /Brexit faithful that Brexit and Covid will have no more than the impact of an economic flesh-wound, as quite charming, in a concerned kind of a way.
In all fairness to Sunak, he has already smelled the coffee.
It's not optimism, there's also a key difference. Bank runs in the UK was down to badly run and badly regulated banks which falls at the feet of the UK government. A pandemic originating in China doesn't.
I also don't think Boris will be there in 2024.
Perhaps I was pointing the finger at you after all.
The harsh reality of incumbency is one takes the blame or the spoils in equal measure dependent on circumstances, and irrespective of direct action, good or bad.
The next few years, at least, will be brutal for incumbents the world over. It is slightly different in Scotland as they can pick and choose who they wish to blame, Holyrood or Westminster.
People said that about the Tories and 2010-2015 wrt austerity, it didn't turn out to be the case.
The flattening off started at the beginning of November. ICU admissions are a 2-3 week lagging indicator, signalling that it started slowing down with the tier system. The ICU funnel will start reflecting the 4th November lockdown in this week's numbers.
The peak for admissions seems to have been around the 11th November.
Yes and from this, the ONS and ZOE data it looks like the peak of the virus in England was actually about a week before the lockdown started so the tier system was working, though maybe more slowly than necessary.
But we were told by Starmer that the tier system had failed.
Were we? Well he seemed to convince Boris then, who replaced it with a lockdown.
Sticking everyone up a Tier would have probably had a similar effect.
I think retail is going to be pretty swamped when it reopens, with just 3 shopping weekends until Christmas. It is going to be very hard to enforce social distancing.
And 6 months later, he did. Not a bad bit of prediction after all.
But Johnson deserves about as much credit for solving the Conservative Party's problems as Howard Kirk did for solving the problems of the University of Watermouth in The History Man.
Yeah, yeah - if you're going to heap all the blame on him for every aspect of the pandemic, then he also gets all the credit for redirecting the Tories' fortunes from wipeout to landslide in a mere 4 and a half months after becoming Prime Minister.
Missed this earlier. I was thinking more about his winding up of the Telegraph reading masses with Brussels balls in the 1990s, opportunism in the referendum and riling MPs against TMay. Like Howard Kirk, Johnson expects gratitude for solving a problem he largely created. But a bright sort like you knew that, didn't you?
Yet Yeadon spent 30 years in R&D in medication for respiratory disease and the other guy is a journalist (Maths from Cambridge).
But Yeadon has an agenda, as you can tell by his pinned tweet.
He views Covid-19 as a deception.
And, from what Yeadon has confidently told us from his experience:
- There won't be a second wave (as of September). Comprehensively disproved here, and in Belgium, and in France, and in Spain, and in Poland, and in multiple states of the USA, and in Sweden, and in the Czech Republic, and in Austria, and in Russia, and in Turkey, and in Iran, and in the Netherlands, and in Italy, etc, etc, etc.
- There are either 0.8%, or 2.3%, or 4%, or even more false positives. Requiring that, say, of the 400 reported positives on one day in July, we'd need [checks notes], either 914 of those 400 to be false, or 2628 of those 400 to be false, or 4571 of those 400 to be false... that's quite hard to manage to get any sort of outcome. And that's not an isolated example. Looking from the first of June alone, every single day from the 1st of June to the 19th of September would have had to have more false positives than the total number of positives recorded if it was 2.3%. When someone's pushing a line that's so arithmetically impossible, it doesn't matter what their background - it's wrong. The number 914 is considerably higher than 400, whatever he is saying.
- I read a rambling claim from him that actually 70%+ of us are already immune and many places have passed the herd immunity threshold. But the second wave has been worse in dozens of places around the world that already got strongly hit in the first wave. And if 70% of us were immune already it would already be over. And it's rather obviously not. Not in loads of places that should be, by his claims, somewhere way past 100% immunity levels if you plug in their figures to his explanations.
Which is why my confusion - with that experience, he has to know he's peddling bollocks. Him claiming authority isn't going to make us conclude that 2,628 out of 400 results is false - it's not even a meaningful claim when you look at the numbers.
Now that Anders Tegnell is persona non grata the Covid-19 deniers/lockdown sceptics need a new hero.
The second wave in Sweden is recording about one third of the deaths that the first wave did. In a way it depends on your definition of 'wave'. The Swedes have tightened up and deaths is not the only metric to be bothered with but they are undoubtedly suffering less in the second wave than many other countries that locked down more.
The flattening off started at the beginning of November. ICU admissions are a 2-3 week lagging indicator, signalling that it started slowing down with the tier system. The ICU funnel will start reflecting the 4th November lockdown in this week's numbers.
The peak for admissions seems to have been around the 11th November.
Yes and from this, the ONS and ZOE data it looks like the peak of the virus in England was actually about a week before the lockdown started so the tier system was working, though maybe more slowly than necessary.
But we were told by Starmer that the tier system had failed.
Were we? Well he seemed to convince Boris then, who replaced it with a lockdown.
Sticking everyone up a Tier would have probably had a similar effect.
I think retail is going to be pretty swamped when it reopens, with just 3 shopping weekends until Christmas. It is going to be very hard to enforce social distancing.
The reason for the national lockdown, as opposed to moving up a tier is being presented to us, again. Everyone starts arguing - "but I'm special and need a different level".
On the shopping - I think even more people have gone online. My prediction is that this year will be manic for online and the shops, when they open will have a rush of sorts, but nothing compared to even the last few years. Which were very disappointing. Retail Armageddon in January....
The flattening off started at the beginning of November. ICU admissions are a 2-3 week lagging indicator, signalling that it started slowing down with the tier system. The ICU funnel will start reflecting the 4th November lockdown in this week's numbers.
The peak for admissions seems to have been around the 11th November.
Yes and from this, the ONS and ZOE data it looks like the peak of the virus in England was actually about a week before the lockdown started so the tier system was working, though maybe more slowly than necessary.
If we use
This would suggest that 10 deals earlier than the 11th - the 1st of November - was the peak infection rate.
The Tiers were introduced on the 14th October.
Different parts of the country were in different tiers.
And infection was slowing faster in those parts with the higher tiers.
The flattening off started at the beginning of November. ICU admissions are a 2-3 week lagging indicator, signalling that it started slowing down with the tier system. The ICU funnel will start reflecting the 4th November lockdown in this week's numbers.
The peak for admissions seems to have been around the 11th November.
Yes and from this, the ONS and ZOE data it looks like the peak of the virus in England was actually about a week before the lockdown started so the tier system was working, though maybe more slowly than necessary.
If we use
This would suggest that 10 deals earlier than the 11th - the 1st of November - was the peak infection rate.
The Tiers were introduced on the 14th October.
Different parts of the country were in different tiers.
And infection was slowing faster in those parts with the higher tiers.
Yet Yeadon spent 30 years in R&D in medication for respiratory disease and the other guy is a journalist (Maths from Cambridge).
But Yeadon has an agenda, as you can tell by his pinned tweet.
He views Covid-19 as a deception.
And, from what Yeadon has confidently told us from his experience:
- There won't be a second wave (as of September). Comprehensively disproved here, and in Belgium, and in France, and in Spain, and in Poland, and in multiple states of the USA, and in Sweden, and in the Czech Republic, and in Austria, and in Russia, and in Turkey, and in Iran, and in the Netherlands, and in Italy, etc, etc, etc.
- There are either 0.8%, or 2.3%, or 4%, or even more false positives. Requiring that, say, of the 400 reported positives on one day in July, we'd need [checks notes], either 914 of those 400 to be false, or 2628 of those 400 to be false, or 4571 of those 400 to be false... that's quite hard to manage to get any sort of outcome. And that's not an isolated example. Looking from the first of June alone, every single day from the 1st of June to the 19th of September would have had to have more false positives than the total number of positives recorded if it was 2.3%. When someone's pushing a line that's so arithmetically impossible, it doesn't matter what their background - it's wrong. The number 914 is considerably higher than 400, whatever he is saying.
- I read a rambling claim from him that actually 70%+ of us are already immune and many places have passed the herd immunity threshold. But the second wave has been worse in dozens of places around the world that already got strongly hit in the first wave. And if 70% of us were immune already it would already be over. And it's rather obviously not. Not in loads of places that should be, by his claims, somewhere way past 100% immunity levels if you plug in their figures to his explanations.
Which is why my confusion - with that experience, he has to know he's peddling bollocks. Him claiming authority isn't going to make us conclude that 2,628 out of 400 results is false - it's not even a meaningful claim when you look at the numbers.
Now that Anders Tegnell is persona non grata the Covid-19 deniers/lockdown sceptics need a new hero.
The second wave in Sweden is recording about one third of the deaths that the first wave did. In a way it depends on your definition of 'wave'. The Swedes have tightened up and deaths is not the only metric to be bothered with but they are undoubtedly suffering less in the second wave than many other countries that locked down more.
The flattening off started at the beginning of November. ICU admissions are a 2-3 week lagging indicator, signalling that it started slowing down with the tier system. The ICU funnel will start reflecting the 4th November lockdown in this week's numbers.
The peak for admissions seems to have been around the 11th November.
Yes and from this, the ONS and ZOE data it looks like the peak of the virus in England was actually about a week before the lockdown started so the tier system was working, though maybe more slowly than necessary.
If we use
This would suggest that 10 deals earlier than the 11th - the 1st of November - was the peak infection rate.
The Tiers were introduced on the 14th October.
Different parts of the country were in different tiers.
And infection was slowing faster in those parts with the higher tiers.
hmmm
Too many lines to be able to differentiate them easily.
Now if you look at new cases the North-West peaked on 20/10 while the South-East peaked on 11/11:
On Keir Starmer I am reminded of a Marxist dictum. "Men make history, but not in circumstances of their choosing."
In discussions here on the Labour leader in the past much has been made of the peculiar circumstances - due to Covid - in which he has had to make an impression with the public. The argument has been made that - after Covid - when everything gets back to normal, he will then have the time and space to make his pitch to the public.
In that he is making the mistake of trying to choose the circumstances in which he forges a relationship with the public, and in doing so I agree with the header that he misses his time, and the opinion of the public will have been formed already.
If Burnham retains any leadership ambitions he should plot his return to Parliament sooner rather than later.
The big picture in a couple of sentences. Those who are desperate for Boris and/or the government to be 'in trouble' know that in a few months' time the stellar job that they have done on vaccine procurement is going to turn the national mood around and make all the current moaning about tiers and related bullshit irrelevant.
Indeed, Johnson has played a blinder over vaccine procurement.
Government Covid performance can be viewed as a University exam. 25/25 for vaccines, 7/25 for lockdowns, 7/25 for test, track and trace. 0/25 for post Covid economic performance (unfortunately, none of the questions studied came up!) is still a fail.
0/25 for post-Covid economic performance?
'No, Mexicanpete, no: Not even the first of the Britons can learn His British history in the future tense. Not even to serve your political turn; Hindsight as foresight makes no sense.'
It does seem a bit mental to judge the government on post-COVID economy when no one is really there yet.
It's also reasonable to point out that ONS GDP figures aren't comparable to EU GDP figures because of how the ONS counts public sector GDP output as output rather than input with a multiplier as it is in Europe and pretty much everywhere else in the world.
I think on the like for like comparison using a French style input multiplier UK GDP is at about -8% rather than -11%, still not great though.
Historical evidence suggests that the Government of the day will take the blame for economic fallout from significant disasters. It may not be their fault but that is a disadvantage of incumbency.
The big picture in a couple of sentences. Those who are desperate for Boris and/or the government to be 'in trouble' know that in a few months' time the stellar job that they have done on vaccine procurement is going to turn the national mood around and make all the current moaning about tiers and related bullshit irrelevant.
Indeed, Johnson has played a blinder over vaccine procurement.
Government Covid performance can be viewed as a University exam. 25/25 for vaccines, 7/25 for lockdowns, 7/25 for test, track and trace. 0/25 for post Covid economic performance (unfortunately, none of the questions studied came up!) is still a fail.
0/25 for post-Covid economic performance?
'No, Mexicanpete, no: Not even the first of the Britons can learn His British history in the future tense. Not even to serve your political turn; Hindsight as foresight makes no sense.'
As above.
Well we don't really know what the post-COVID economy looks like, if we get to 2024 with the economy growing and above where we end 2020 I think most people will consider that as a success and give the government credit for getting us back to health. You can't judge a post-COVID economy until we actually get there and part of that is vaccine roll out where we seem very well placed, the faster we roll the vaccine out to all age groups the faster we can reopen hospitality, tourism and venue based business such as conferences and sports.
One of the reasons the reasons England is in the running to host Euro 2020/21 is because the government thinks we can have the nation basically all vaccinated by then and allow full crowds at venues rather than empty or mostly empty stadiums that UEFA are planning on with the "festival of football" thing they're talking about. At the moment a lot of it hasn't been factored into the numbers.
What did we learn from the 2008 crash? It was generally considered that under the circumstances Brown and Darling handled the run on the banks as well as they could. The voters disagreed.
I am not pointing the finger at you Max. However, I find the earnest blind-faith optimism displayed by the.Boris /Brexit faithful that Brexit and Covid will have no more than the impact of an economic flesh-wound, as quite charming, in a concerned kind of a way.
In all fairness to Sunak, he has already smelled the coffee.
It's not optimism, there's also a key difference. Bank runs in the UK was down to badly run and badly regulated banks which falls at the feet of the UK government. A pandemic originating in China doesn't.
I also don't think Boris will be there in 2024.
Perhaps I was pointing the finger at you after all.
The harsh reality of incumbency is one takes the blame or the spoils in equal measure dependent on circumstances, and irrespective of direct action, good or bad.
The next few years, at least, will be brutal for incumbents the world over. It is slightly different in Scotland as they can pick and choose who they wish to blame, Holyrood or Westminster.
People said that about the Tories and 2010-2015 wrt austerity, it didn't turn out to be the case.
Labour accepted the basic premise of austerity and confined themselves to arguing on the margins. It did not work and there is possibly a lesson there - that you need to oppose not critique. They can't oppose the overall govt pandemic policy of 'hunker till vaccine', obviously, leave that to the whacko Right, but they do need to start building a Tory blame narrative for the consequences, just as the Tories themselves did for the aftermath of the GFC.
The big picture in a couple of sentences. Those who are desperate for Boris and/or the government to be 'in trouble' know that in a few months' time the stellar job that they have done on vaccine procurement is going to turn the national mood around and make all the current moaning about tiers and related bullshit irrelevant.
Indeed, Johnson has played a blinder over vaccine procurement.
Government Covid performance can be viewed as a University exam. 25/25 for vaccines, 7/25 for lockdowns, 7/25 for test, track and trace. 0/25 for post Covid economic performance (unfortunately, none of the questions studied came up!) is still a fail.
0/25 for post-Covid economic performance?
'No, Mexicanpete, no: Not even the first of the Britons can learn His British history in the future tense. Not even to serve your political turn; Hindsight as foresight makes no sense.'
It does seem a bit mental to judge the government on post-COVID economy when no one is really there yet.
It's also reasonable to point out that ONS GDP figures aren't comparable to EU GDP figures because of how the ONS counts public sector GDP output as output rather than input with a multiplier as it is in Europe and pretty much everywhere else in the world.
I think on the like for like comparison using a French style input multiplier UK GDP is at about -8% rather than -11%, still not great though.
Historical evidence suggests that the Government of the day will take the blame for economic fallout from significant disasters. It may not be their fault but that is a disadvantage of incumbency.
The big picture in a couple of sentences. Those who are desperate for Boris and/or the government to be 'in trouble' know that in a few months' time the stellar job that they have done on vaccine procurement is going to turn the national mood around and make all the current moaning about tiers and related bullshit irrelevant.
Indeed, Johnson has played a blinder over vaccine procurement.
Government Covid performance can be viewed as a University exam. 25/25 for vaccines, 7/25 for lockdowns, 7/25 for test, track and trace. 0/25 for post Covid economic performance (unfortunately, none of the questions studied came up!) is still a fail.
0/25 for post-Covid economic performance?
'No, Mexicanpete, no: Not even the first of the Britons can learn His British history in the future tense. Not even to serve your political turn; Hindsight as foresight makes no sense.'
As above.
Well we don't really know what the post-COVID economy looks like, if we get to 2024 with the economy growing and above where we end 2020 I think most people will consider that as a success and give the government credit for getting us back to health. You can't judge a post-COVID economy until we actually get there and part of that is vaccine roll out where we seem very well placed, the faster we roll the vaccine out to all age groups the faster we can reopen hospitality, tourism and venue based business such as conferences and sports.
One of the reasons the reasons England is in the running to host Euro 2020/21 is because the government thinks we can have the nation basically all vaccinated by then and allow full crowds at venues rather than empty or mostly empty stadiums that UEFA are planning on with the "festival of football" thing they're talking about. At the moment a lot of it hasn't been factored into the numbers.
What did we learn from the 2008 crash? It was generally considered that under the circumstances Brown and Darling handled the run on the banks as well as they could. The voters disagreed.
I am not pointing the finger at you Max. However, I find the earnest blind-faith optimism displayed by the.Boris /Brexit faithful that Brexit and Covid will have no more than the impact of an economic flesh-wound, as quite charming, in a concerned kind of a way.
In all fairness to Sunak, he has already smelled the coffee.
It's not optimism, there's also a key difference. Bank runs in the UK was down to badly run and badly regulated banks which falls at the feet of the UK government. A pandemic originating in China doesn't.
I also don't think Boris will be there in 2024.
Perhaps I was pointing the finger at you after all.
The harsh reality of incumbency is one takes the blame or the spoils in equal measure dependent on circumstances, and irrespective of direct action, good or bad.
The next few years, at least, will be brutal for incumbents the world over. It is slightly different in Scotland as they can pick and choose who they wish to blame, Holyrood or Westminster.
People said that about the Tories and 2010-2015 wrt austerity, it didn't turn out to be the case.
The vast majority of voters remained untouched by austerity. Borrowing remained cheap enough for a new C class or X3 every other year. Consumables from China remained cheap.
Philip Thompson is confident that a "v" shaped recovery will see us back to 2019 economic activity levels by next summer, maybe he is right.
My experience, here on Planet Earth, is that the shock of what comes next is likely to be something not previously seen outside a world war.
The big picture in a couple of sentences. Those who are desperate for Boris and/or the government to be 'in trouble' know that in a few months' time the stellar job that they have done on vaccine procurement is going to turn the national mood around and make all the current moaning about tiers and related bullshit irrelevant.
Indeed, Johnson has played a blinder over vaccine procurement.
Government Covid performance can be viewed as a University exam. 25/25 for vaccines, 7/25 for lockdowns, 7/25 for test, track and trace. 0/25 for post Covid economic performance (unfortunately, none of the questions studied came up!) is still a fail.
0/25 for post-Covid economic performance?
'No, Mexicanpete, no: Not even the first of the Britons can learn His British history in the future tense. Not even to serve your political turn; Hindsight as foresight makes no sense.'
It does seem a bit mental to judge the government on post-COVID economy when no one is really there yet.
It's also reasonable to point out that ONS GDP figures aren't comparable to EU GDP figures because of how the ONS counts public sector GDP output as output rather than input with a multiplier as it is in Europe and pretty much everywhere else in the world.
I think on the like for like comparison using a French style input multiplier UK GDP is at about -8% rather than -11%, still not great though.
Historical evidence suggests that the Government of the day will take the blame for economic fallout from significant disasters. It may not be their fault but that is a disadvantage of incumbency.
The big picture in a couple of sentences. Those who are desperate for Boris and/or the government to be 'in trouble' know that in a few months' time the stellar job that they have done on vaccine procurement is going to turn the national mood around and make all the current moaning about tiers and related bullshit irrelevant.
Indeed, Johnson has played a blinder over vaccine procurement.
Government Covid performance can be viewed as a University exam. 25/25 for vaccines, 7/25 for lockdowns, 7/25 for test, track and trace. 0/25 for post Covid economic performance (unfortunately, none of the questions studied came up!) is still a fail.
0/25 for post-Covid economic performance?
'No, Mexicanpete, no: Not even the first of the Britons can learn His British history in the future tense. Not even to serve your political turn; Hindsight as foresight makes no sense.'
As above.
Well we don't really know what the post-COVID economy looks like, if we get to 2024 with the economy growing and above where we end 2020 I think most people will consider that as a success and give the government credit for getting us back to health. You can't judge a post-COVID economy until we actually get there and part of that is vaccine roll out where we seem very well placed, the faster we roll the vaccine out to all age groups the faster we can reopen hospitality, tourism and venue based business such as conferences and sports.
One of the reasons the reasons England is in the running to host Euro 2020/21 is because the government thinks we can have the nation basically all vaccinated by then and allow full crowds at venues rather than empty or mostly empty stadiums that UEFA are planning on with the "festival of football" thing they're talking about. At the moment a lot of it hasn't been factored into the numbers.
What did we learn from the 2008 crash? It was generally considered that under the circumstances Brown and Darling handled the run on the banks as well as they could. The voters disagreed.
I am not pointing the finger at you Max. However, I find the earnest blind-faith optimism displayed by the.Boris /Brexit faithful that Brexit and Covid will have no more than the impact of an economic flesh-wound, as quite charming, in a concerned kind of a way.
In all fairness to Sunak, he has already smelled the coffee.
It's not optimism, there's also a key difference. Bank runs in the UK was down to badly run and badly regulated banks which falls at the feet of the UK government. A pandemic originating in China doesn't.
I also don't think Boris will be there in 2024.
Perhaps I was pointing the finger at you after all.
The harsh reality of incumbency is one takes the blame or the spoils in equal measure dependent on circumstances, and irrespective of direct action, good or bad.
The next few years, at least, will be brutal for incumbents the world over. It is slightly different in Scotland as they can pick and choose who they wish to blame, Holyrood or Westminster.
People said that about the Tories and 2010-2015 wrt austerity, it didn't turn out to be the case.
The vast majority of voters remained untouched by austerity. Borrowing remained cheap enough for a new C class or X3 every other year. Consumables from China remained cheap.
Philip Thompson is confident that a "v" shaped recovery will see us back to 2019 economic activity levels by next summer, maybe he is right.
My experience, here on Planet Earth, is that the shock of what comes next is likely to be something not previously seen outside a world war.
Besides- while the Conservatives did fine in 2015, the government didn't.
The big picture in a couple of sentences. Those who are desperate for Boris and/or the government to be 'in trouble' know that in a few months' time the stellar job that they have done on vaccine procurement is going to turn the national mood around and make all the current moaning about tiers and related bullshit irrelevant.
Indeed, Johnson has played a blinder over vaccine procurement.
Government Covid performance can be viewed as a University exam. 25/25 for vaccines, 7/25 for lockdowns, 7/25 for test, track and trace. 0/25 for post Covid economic performance (unfortunately, none of the questions studied came up!) is still a fail.
0/25 for post-Covid economic performance?
'No, Mexicanpete, no: Not even the first of the Britons can learn His British history in the future tense. Not even to serve your political turn; Hindsight as foresight makes no sense.'
It does seem a bit mental to judge the government on post-COVID economy when no one is really there yet.
It's also reasonable to point out that ONS GDP figures aren't comparable to EU GDP figures because of how the ONS counts public sector GDP output as output rather than input with a multiplier as it is in Europe and pretty much everywhere else in the world.
I think on the like for like comparison using a French style input multiplier UK GDP is at about -8% rather than -11%, still not great though.
Historical evidence suggests that the Government of the day will take the blame for economic fallout from significant disasters. It may not be their fault but that is a disadvantage of incumbency.
The big picture in a couple of sentences. Those who are desperate for Boris and/or the government to be 'in trouble' know that in a few months' time the stellar job that they have done on vaccine procurement is going to turn the national mood around and make all the current moaning about tiers and related bullshit irrelevant.
Indeed, Johnson has played a blinder over vaccine procurement.
Government Covid performance can be viewed as a University exam. 25/25 for vaccines, 7/25 for lockdowns, 7/25 for test, track and trace. 0/25 for post Covid economic performance (unfortunately, none of the questions studied came up!) is still a fail.
0/25 for post-Covid economic performance?
'No, Mexicanpete, no: Not even the first of the Britons can learn His British history in the future tense. Not even to serve your political turn; Hindsight as foresight makes no sense.'
As above.
Well we don't really know what the post-COVID economy looks like, if we get to 2024 with the economy growing and above where we end 2020 I think most people will consider that as a success and give the government credit for getting us back to health. You can't judge a post-COVID economy until we actually get there and part of that is vaccine roll out where we seem very well placed, the faster we roll the vaccine out to all age groups the faster we can reopen hospitality, tourism and venue based business such as conferences and sports.
One of the reasons the reasons England is in the running to host Euro 2020/21 is because the government thinks we can have the nation basically all vaccinated by then and allow full crowds at venues rather than empty or mostly empty stadiums that UEFA are planning on with the "festival of football" thing they're talking about. At the moment a lot of it hasn't been factored into the numbers.
What did we learn from the 2008 crash? It was generally considered that under the circumstances Brown and Darling handled the run on the banks as well as they could. The voters disagreed.
I am not pointing the finger at you Max. However, I find the earnest blind-faith optimism displayed by the.Boris /Brexit faithful that Brexit and Covid will have no more than the impact of an economic flesh-wound, as quite charming, in a concerned kind of a way.
In all fairness to Sunak, he has already smelled the coffee.
It's not optimism, there's also a key difference. Bank runs in the UK was down to badly run and badly regulated banks which falls at the feet of the UK government. A pandemic originating in China doesn't.
I also don't think Boris will be there in 2024.
Perhaps I was pointing the finger at you after all.
The harsh reality of incumbency is one takes the blame or the spoils in equal measure dependent on circumstances, and irrespective of direct action, good or bad.
The next few years, at least, will be brutal for incumbents the world over. It is slightly different in Scotland as they can pick and choose who they wish to blame, Holyrood or Westminster.
People said that about the Tories and 2010-2015 wrt austerity, it didn't turn out to be the case.
The vast majority of voters remained untouched by austerity. Borrowing remained cheap enough for a new C class or X3 every other year. Consumables from China remained cheap.
Philip Thompson is confident that a "v" shaped recovery will see us back to 2019 economic activity levels by next summer, maybe he is right.
My experience, here on Planet Earth, is that the shock of what comes next is likely to be something not previously seen outside a world war.
Besides- while the Conservatives did fine in 2015, the government didn't.
Indeed. I am also not sure that Cameron would have done quite so well in 2015 without the promise of his EU Referendum.
Hey. I have auburn hair, freckles and blue eyes. Do I get an Indyref vote? I have been to Scotland once.
No. You might be Irish. And AIUI it just means you and I are partly Neandertal anyway.
Rumbled. Guilty on both counts.
Not that the Irish aren't welcome of course! But you'd have to move to Scotland first.
I thought the Scots originally came from Ireland? Or was "1066 and All That" not reliable?
Yes, but he's not Scottish Irish, err ... or should one say Irish Scottish? Now we are getting all complicated. One can see where the 1880s Irish got the idea of moving the Irish Question, as Gladstone found with a later generation of Irish (Sellar and Yeatman 1066, p. 94). It's your fault for getting me muddled.
Hey. I have auburn hair, freckles and blue eyes. Do I get an Indyref vote? I have been to Scotland once.
No. You might be Irish. And AIUI it just means you and I are partly Neandertal anyway.
Rumbled. Guilty on both counts.
Not that the Irish aren't welcome of course! But you'd have to move to Scotland first.
I thought the Scots originally came from Ireland? Or was "1066 and All That" not reliable?
Yes, but he's not Scottish Irish, err ... or should one say Irish Scottish? Now we are getting all complicated. One can see where the 1880s Irish got the idea of moving the Irish Question, as Gladstone found with a later generation of Irish (Sellar and Yeatman 1066, p. 94). It's your fault for getting me muddled.
Isn't it mainly about sunlight? Gingers have a layer less of skin the better to absorb the available vitamin D from what sun is available in Northern climbs.
Comments
https://twitter.com/Douglas4Moray/status/1333019044933476352?s=20
What could possibly go wrong.
I'm a naughty Tory,
He's a naughty Tory,
We're naughty Tory's,
They're naughty Tory's,
https://twitter.com/mclaverock/status/1333021113555804160?s=20
https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1332998802589036545?s=19
As was pointed to you yesterday, the 1933 German election wasn't anything approaching democracy.
I shall try again...
I'm a naughty Tory,
Hes a naughty Tory,
We're naughty Tories,
They're naughty Tories
https://twitter.com/whippletom/status/1333026823861579777
The government has failed abjectly to do the latter part of that in the first lockdown. This is why we've resorted to lockdowns and tiered lockdown despite the huge economic and social cost they come with. Every part of the UK establishment from the government to the scientists to the opposition has failed the public. These lockdown measures should not have been necessary given the billions spent on the track and trace system and the months of advanced warning we had for the second wave and the fact that the UK is basically an island nation with very hard borders.
So, yes, lockdowns obviously work. The issue is that we've had to resort to them for a second time. We should not have been in this position.
From his claimed background, qualifications, and experience, he should know quite a bit. But everything his ever put up (from "Trust me, I can tell you from all my experience there won't be a second wave" back in September, from the garbled nonsense on false positives that would embarrass a first year undergraduate (I mean, you could simply cross-check the case numbers through July against tests to realise his claims were pure absurdity), to him claiming that somehow we've got 70%+ immunity already in October, to this again) has been barking mad.
It's not even coherent with itself, let alone observable reality. But he has to know that from his background, surely?
Starmer has made a great start. A nightmare for the Tories. They must be pining for Rebecca Long-Bailey.
He is aided by his sheer brutal opportunism. Look at the "Stop wasting taxpayers money" tweet at the top of Alastair`s header. The brass neck of the bloke.
- The majority of grunt work in testing labs of all flavours, around the world, is not carried out be people with PhDs.
- It is repetitive, boring work. Taught as a rote script.
- There is a good deal of operations research in the area. Strangely (or not) for such repattive jobs, high skills are not an advantage.
- Quality is controlled by doing sampling, cross checks etc. Not by employing PhDs to do routine lab tests.
- Which is what happens at the Nightingale labs. Hence the catch of a batch of contaminated/off spec chemicals last week.
He views Covid-19 as a deception.
Or denying the effectiveness of any lockdown that has been imposed or is likely to be imposed - an entirely hypothetical lockdown they have just invented would the A OK....
IIt reminds me of what Herman Kahn said about problems that are sufficiently large and where the solution is large in effect as well.....
People have come to mean by ‘Brexit’ something that has long been wanted by Boris Johnson and a good few of his friends. But everyone forgets that the UK’s leaving the EU—as the govt was advised [note NOT mandated] to in the referendum—has never required what is now meant by Brexit. You really need never have been a remainer in order to stand opposed to where we've been led by the Tory right wing (with a little help from the Brexit Party as was). The electorate needs to know that it’s they who have brought us where we are. There will be plenty of evidence of the ills of the Brexit they've delivered from Jan 1st on. Labour must not be seen to have played any part in that which Brexit has come to mean.
Shops were open, restaurants were open, gyms were open, golf courses were open.
With the reductions starting earlier in the North-West than England as a whole:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsregion&areaName=North West
- There won't be a second wave (as of September). Comprehensively disproved here, and in Belgium, and in France, and in Spain, and in Poland, and in multiple states of the USA, and in Sweden, and in the Czech Republic, and in Austria, and in Russia, and in Turkey, and in Iran, and in the Netherlands, and in Italy, etc, etc, etc.
- There are either 0.8%, or 2.3%, or 4%, or even more false positives. Requiring that, say, of the 400 reported positives on one day in July, we'd need [checks notes], either 914 of those 400 to be false, or 2628 of those 400 to be false, or 4571 of those 400 to be false... that's quite hard to manage to get any sort of outcome. And that's not an isolated example. Looking from the first of June alone, every single day from the 1st of June to the 19th of September would have had to have more false positives than the total number of positives recorded if it was 2.3%. When someone's pushing a line that's so arithmetically impossible, it doesn't matter what their background - it's wrong. The number 914 is considerably higher than 400, whatever he is saying.
- I read a rambling claim from him that actually 70%+ of us are already immune and many places have passed the herd immunity threshold. But the second wave has been worse in dozens of places around the world that already got strongly hit in the first wave. And if 70% of us were immune already it would already be over. And it's rather obviously not. Not in loads of places that should be, by his claims, somewhere way past 100% immunity levels if you plug in their figures to his explanations.
Which is why my confusion - with that experience, he has to know he's peddling bollocks. Him claiming authority isn't going to make us conclude that 2,628 out of 400 results is false - it's not even a meaningful claim when you look at the numbers.
It would have been much cheaper to bung the airlines and airports a few billion to shut down and shut up.
If you see my response to the email you responded to later in the thread you will see that it wasn't a cleaning issue. The NHS weren't at fault.
Thank you for your email - appreciated.
This would suggest that 10 deals earlier than the 11th - the 1st of November - was the peak infection rate.
The Tiers were introduced on the 14th October.
We can look at other countries where the response had been sub-optimal -- Ireland, Spain, France, Italy.
It looks as though (with the exception of Fianna Fail in Ireland), the ruling party has so far escaped the savagery of the voters. Presumably, voters have concluded the opposition would not have done much better --- & judging from Wales, that is for sure true of Labour.
So I think maybe SKS has done OK -- but Boris has given him a lot of open goals, and SKS is not regularly slamming the ball in the back of the net. I also do think SKS needs some of Labour's old Scottish seats back, otherwise I don't think he can do it. The Welsh seats are being reduced in number, so he'll be lucky to stand still in Wales, numerically speaking.
I know you are very bullish on Labour's chances in Scotland -- but I don't think anyone else is
The harsh reality of incumbency is one takes the blame or the spoils in equal measure dependent on circumstances, and irrespective of direct action, good or bad.
The next few years, at least, will be brutal for incumbents the world over. It is slightly different in Scotland as they can pick and choose who they wish to blame, Holyrood or Westminster.
I think retail is going to be pretty swamped when it reopens, with just 3 shopping weekends until Christmas. It is going to be very hard to enforce social distancing.
I was thinking more about his winding up of the Telegraph reading masses with Brussels balls in the 1990s, opportunism in the referendum and riling MPs against TMay.
Like Howard Kirk, Johnson expects gratitude for solving a problem he largely created.
But a bright sort like you knew that, didn't you?
On the shopping - I think even more people have gone online. My prediction is that this year will be manic for online and the shops, when they open will have a rush of sorts, but nothing compared to even the last few years. Which were very disappointing. Retail Armageddon in January....
And infection was slowing faster in those parts with the higher tiers.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/11/28/swedish-government-sidelines-epidemiologist-steered-countrys/
Now if you look at new cases the North-West peaked on 20/10 while the South-East peaked on 11/11:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=region&areaName=North West
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=region&areaName=South East
NEW. THREAD
In discussions here on the Labour leader in the past much has been made of the peculiar circumstances - due to Covid - in which he has had to make an impression with the public. The argument has been made that - after Covid - when everything gets back to normal, he will then have the time and space to make his pitch to the public.
In that he is making the mistake of trying to choose the circumstances in which he forges a relationship with the public, and in doing so I agree with the header that he misses his time, and the opinion of the public will have been formed already.
If Burnham retains any leadership ambitions he should plot his return to Parliament sooner rather than later.
Philip Thompson is confident that a "v" shaped recovery will see us back to 2019 economic activity levels by next summer, maybe he is right.
My experience, here on Planet Earth, is that the shock of what comes next is likely to be something not previously seen outside a world war.