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Would the real Keir Starmer please stand up? – politicalbetting.com
Would the real Keir Starmer please stand up? – politicalbetting.com
The Conservatives have spent £1.5 billion on contracts for their friends but are refusing to give our key workers the pay rise they deserve. pic.twitter.com/LuPVh8Lsv3
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No, she really didn't. She said he hadn't remotely spent enough. Which is still Labour's core problem. It still has a default setting of requiring the public sector to receive more than the private sector can fund.
Until it addresses that, it will not gain power, as its business model is fundamentally broken.
Second, countries which spent more during the pandemic have been more successful. Just ask that nice Mr Trump. Or read @Nigelb's post towards the end of the last thread.
Third, it is a mistake to view the public and private sectors as antagonistic.
Biden 1.04
Democrats 1.05
Biden PV 1.03
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.05
Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.05
Trump ECV 210-239 1.09
Biden ECV 300-329 1.08
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.06
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.07
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 1.02
AZ Dem 1.06
GA Dem 1.06
MI Dem 1.06
NV Dem 1.05
PA Dem 1.06
WI Dem 1.06
Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.11
Trump exit date 2021 1.08
The private sector has done the economic heavy lifting required by Covid. Lost businesses, lost jobs, lost pay, lost pensions. It will be expected to pay for it in due course. Meanwhile, Labour bleats that the public sector has been hard done by as a result of Covid. No, it really hasn't.
The time will come and patience is required, the exact opposite of what Meeks with no justification states.
Asset price inflation probably owes as much to QE as interest rates. In theory, low interest rates should stimulate investment but too often this has been in assets, houses, art and so on rather than the productive economy.
Dave Prowse: Darth Vader actor dies aged 85
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-55117704
Alessandra Ambrosio, Heidi Klum, Lily Aldridge, Miranda Kerr, Barbara Palvin and Irina Shayk -- $29,750 (£22,315)
Dolly Parton -- $1 million (£750,000)
Madonna -- $1 million (£750,000)
Wafic Saïd -- £3.33 million
Lakshmi Mittal -- £3.5 million
Rihanna -- $5 million (£4.2 million)
Sir Li Ka Shing -- £9.75 million
Jack Ma -- £11+ million
Bill Gates -- £94+ million
Details at:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/luxury/society/vaccine-wars-celebrities-billionaires-battling-cut-biggest-cheques/
And Good Morning everybody.
Much worse are the ones still quietly making excuses for his character failings, like he’s some special case. Even at his lectern, Johnson seems to cast himself as the chorus to events, as opposed to the guy who decrees them. All the sighs and the winces and the “I wishes” – we are for ever being encouraged to see things as happening to the prime minister, as opposed to at his behest. He lacks the leadership qualities required to own his response.
No doubt his last defenders would claim that Johnson is simply giving people hope. If so, then he is demonstrably going the wrong way about it. Johnson has become a specialist in dashing hopes falsely raised (by him). Yet hope is hugely important, now more than at any time this past year, and a better leader – even an adequate one – should be able to inspire without misleading.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/27/boris-johnson-false-hope-lockdown-prime-minister-tier-system
(Say it quietly, but the U.K. government response has actually been good by international standards. The levels of support for those affected have been high, the testing programme is now working well and the UK has more early options for vaccines than just about anywhere else).
Starmer has been pretty invisible so far, but he’s doing good work sorting out his internal party issues. He will have better opportunities over Brexit, where there’s likely to be some disruption in the new years that he’ll be easier to pin on the government.
The other thing I have to state, despite being left-of-centre and anti Boris, is that they have done EXTREMELY well on ordering ahead the vaccines from 7 different potential sources. Although they pumped the UK invested Astra Zeneca they STILL pre-ordered 40 million of the Pfizer jab. Brilliant move.
I expect they will make a total horlicks of the vaccinating itself but in terms of pre-ordering it's a stupendous decision and they should take the plaudits.
F1: weirdly, no each way option for the winner market on Ladbrokes. Normally they have that, and a separate enhanced win only market.
Edited extra bit: ha, there's also the enhanced win only market, with duly longer odds.
People are smart enough to know that much as they like to have money spent on them or things they like, they are still the ones picking up the tab. Labour can try and claim "don't worry, we will only tax that rich guy over there...." only to discover that rich guy has fucked off out the jurisdiction - leaving the immobile little people having their purses picked.
After the high-risk groups have been done, the more difficult task is the general population programme. There will be lots of mopping up to do, probably a few million people who have had no recent contact with NHS, including many foreigners, homeless and young adults who have moved around a lot.
The biggest political risk IMO is grey-market American vaccines finding their way over early in the new year, leading to paid queue-jumping. Another is that the authorities find people they were looking for, for relatively minor issues or immigration status, as a result of them coming forward to be vaccinated.
https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/aviation/527835-first-doses-of-pfizer-vaccine-being-flown-to-us-from-belgium
Which slightly contradicts the last thread header.
Betting PostMr. Sandpit, inclined to agree on both counts.
F1: backed Ferrari to double score at 3.5 (3.6 with boost). They start 11th and 12th, narrowly missing out on Q3 and have free tyre choice which may prove handy.
Pre-race ramble here: https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2020/11/bahrain-pre-race-2020.html
Similarly, a large portion of the (to date) £22bn spent on test and trace has been effectively wasted, in that it has had a relatively small effect on controlling the pandemic.
It became obvious months ago that a centralised laboratory system using PCR was both costly and ineffective for this purpose. (Though it’s been a useful but hideously expensive means of tracking the extent of infection.)
A smart opposition would rightly make something of this, rather than allowing the government to spin a belated look at cheap mass testing as its own innovation.
While it’s true that no other western countries which experienced similar levels of Covid in the first part of the year have done much better, that really doesn’t change the fact that we essentially wasted the summer opportunity for better planning.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/
The plan is simple, position as competent, trustworthy if a bit bland, and wait for the Tories to lose the election rather than Labour to win it. It is their best bet even if its dull and boring for commentators and politicos.
Alastair is quite right that at some point soon, Labour needs to set out an alternate view to the government’s of the way forward. That isn’t the same thing as ‘over-attacking’ the government.
In that, he is quite right. Whether Labour are up to the job is a separate question.
Over here, if you test positive for COVID-19 then get decapitated by a low-flying flamingo it's recorded as a pandemic death.
ego trippurge of the Remainers.OK, they have some serious figures still on the back benches. Hunt, Javid, May, even Harper. But not lots of them, and they may not be willing to return to front line politics.
So even if Johnson is overthrown and replaced, the cabinet will still look lightweight.
Therefore, Starmer's key point is to look to assemble an abler shadow cabinet that people will want to trust. So far, he hasn't quite managed that - in particular, he needs someone better shadowing the Treasury.
I think that's where I'd be concentrating, not on opposing for the sake of opposition or trying to build a narrative. If competence and talent are available, the narrative builds itself.
Could easily bugger the fruit harvest for next year.
https://twitter.com/jonmladd/status/1332864534663589891
Conservatives have been very good at changing leader in power, and making it clear that this is a brand new administration. They’ve done it twice already, and it’s not impossible they’ll do it once more.
You're right that they should axe him, though.
https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1332890538215944193
If BoJo goes a (relative) success- Brexit and Covid put to bed, the remaining cabinet can stay, maybe some of the refuseniks come back, things aren't any worse than now.
But what if things go so badly that BoJo has to go? Hard to imagine Gove or Sunak providing the necessary reset. The Conservatives would struggle to populate a relaunched government. And there won't be a GE that the government are bound to lose.
Do we just end up with a four year zombie lemming march to the mother of all defeats? Major on sedatives?
We don't have a death certificate yet to know given cause of death but whatever it will clearly be ambiguous.
Good morning, everybody.
John Smith of course was an absolutely shameless opportunist when it came to politics - far worse than either Blair or Kinnock. He did follow NigelB's advice to always oppose, and we all know he would have won the 1997 election.
Tony Blair followed Alistair's advice, and won a massive landslide. But he did also have an extremely able SC. Harman was the weakest link and he got rid of her very fast - but as the key disaster on her brief was BSE, the French made all the running for her on that. Cook was a loose cannon, but also a superb performer when he put his mind to it (as Gaynor said). Irvine, Brown and Straw were all capable
Will boring competence as a narrative win against preternatural uselessness? Quite possibly. Starmer will likely have the second, but can he find the first?
Bit concerning that their capacity is at such pressure they are using beds from covid patients without (presumably) adequate cleaning though.
Meanwhile, Labour is content to analyse government policy and point out where it can be improved, while broadly supportive on Covid. And slowly but surely some serious negatives against the government are beginning to stick.
For example, the whiff of cronyism (if not corruption) in contract procurement and doling out jobs does not look good and is being noticed. Divisions within the Tories over Covid restrictions policy are becoming acute. The overall weakness of the cabinet is apparent. Sunak is spending money hand over fist, but it is not always well targeted, as Dodds and others have pointed out. In due course, I expect to see a major reckoning on waste of taxpayers' money: fraud on an industrial scale will emerge, and the generous schemes to help individuals and businesses have too often rewarded those who don't need help and missed those who do. And then there's Brexit, not quite as oven-ready as the public were led to believe. (Of course a successful vaccine rollout may well benefit the government bigly).
So Starmer can bide his time and focus on sorting out Labour's internal problems.
So theres a line to walk and picking targets is key, as with a really bad time coming the lag effect I talked about could be quite big - government could well be punished even if people dont blame them since the situation what it is.
As the public expect a great response rather than see it as something to reward if you merely do good, if we have.
He/She wasn't a Covid patient. Found positive subsequent to leaving hospital. Wasn't a Covid ward. We are assuming (possibly incorrectly) that is how my Uncle got it as his home was clear. I presume that was why he was tested.
Your post sums up in a nutshell why this virus is such an absolute bastard* to deal with. How can you clamp down on a virus that you can spread for up to 72 hours before noticing even mild symptoms?
*Please note, @Yorkcity , no references to Mr Drakeford were made in this post
I expect from his pressure that next time the TV contracts are drawn up it will be agreed that the Saturday 12.30 slot won't go to a team that played on Wednesday.
BoZo's bulletproof majority is built on sand. He is constantly reversing positions to try and stay in power.
Cummings departure seems to have derailed the entire agenda.
What exactly is a BoZo Government for?
(Apart from Brexit obviously, which is still giant omnishambles, even if he capitulates on a deal)
He could also have made more of Nick Gibbs' recent dishonesty over the 0.2% claim. Gibb did, in fact, state that it was '0.2% with a confirmed case,' but this isn't a get out for three very good reasons. One, it still isn't correct. The actual figure is 2.2% and data manipulation has been used to get that figure down 90%. Two, it is irrelevant. If 23% are off isolating because of contacts, then you still have 23% of secondary school age children off not 0.2% or 2.2%. Even that figure, I should note, has been achieved only because of enormous pressure being brought to bear on school leaders to keep isolations to the children sat next to and in front of confirmed cases. If every confirmed case led to whole classes being sent home - which from an epidemiological point of view, it should - then attendance would be touching 50%. But third, it isn't the number of children off that determines whether schools can function, but the number of staff. And as money for supply teachers for the whole year is fast running out, and the government has given out no more, unless we have a dramatic reversal in current infection rates (as in, they are cut in half) there will come a time when schools are legally obliged to close whether the government likes it or not. Frankly, I'm slightly surprised when such evidence as we have indicates one teacher in six is off that we've made it this far.
And this is fully at the door of the government, because there are some decisions they can and should have made that would ease the situation considerably:
1) Rota systems for older year groups, Year 10 upwards. That would allow everyone to plan with some degree of certainty when they are or are not in, rather than ad hoc as at present
2) Cancel GCSEs. Nobody cares about them any more, because everyone knows they are a joke, and it would considerably ease the strains on Year 11. Instead, externally moderated coursework should be used. That also relieves pressure to keep Year 11 in and somehow cram 18 months of teaching into 6 months (as very few subjects have had content reduced) and means more effort can be placed on salvaging A-levels, NVQs and apprenticeships, which actually do matter.
3) Plan all school holidays until July to be two weeks, to try and reduce transmission among schoolchildren. That doesn't come without costs, but better to announce it and plan for it now than to announce it with 48 hours' warning.
But they won't plan this in advance, because it means admitting their strategy has failed. And as a result, they will cock it up repeatedly and cause another massive car crash.
There is definitely an opening here for Starmer and Green - if they can take it.
What will decide the 2024 election is the impact of Brexit and other govt policies in 2023/4 not opinion polling in 2020/21.
I read a tweet from someone rejoicing that Pfizer's UK cold store centre was being phased out as operations were being consolidated in Belgium "because of Brexit" - until it was pointed out that Pfizer's plans long predate Brexit.
Worked out alright for the country and Clement Attlee.
When the dust settles, he's going to be a brilliant morality tale.
Culturally they have plenty of Brexiteers that WILL stick with them no matter what Boris or Starmer do, at least for the next election.
So Boris (Perhaps his succesor) has to be tremendously bad and Starmer extremely good
I don't think the gap between them is biv enough to make up for the Tories fundamental advantage here at the moment
I'm liking the analogy even more...Mark Harper as Leo Amery?
The defence cultural specialist unit was launched in Afghanistan in 2010 and belongs to the army’s 77th Brigade. The secretive unit has often worked side-by-side with psychological operations teams.
Leaked documents reveal that its soldiers are already monitoring cyberspace for Covid-19 content and analysing how British citizens are being targeted online. It is also gathering evidence of vaccine disinformation from hostile states, including Russia,
Next month the 77th Brigade will begin an “uplift” of professional and reserve soldiers to join operations. The brigade’s badge bears the same mythical creature used by the Chindits, an Indian army guerrilla warfare force known for its unconventional methods in the Second World War.
The scaling up of intelligence efforts comes after at least 155 people were arrested, including for assault on a police officer, during anti-lockdown protests in the West End of London yesterday. Many appeared to be influenced by anti-vax propaganda and refused to wear masks.
Ministers are alarmed at the impact that online propaganda is having on public opinion. A recent report found that more than one-third of people are uncertain or are very unlikely to be vaccinated.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/army-spies-to-take-on-antivax-militants-mfzsj66w2
I'd prefer them to use the SAS and 16 Air Assault Brigade against antivaxxers if I'm honest.
However, although you say that in the meantime he can focus on sorting out Labour's internal problems, I think that defining himself would instead help him see off the far left, who are trying to paint him as another Blair in sheep's clothing.
So how about a speech from Starmer harking back to Aneurin Bevan's "religion of socialism is the language of priorities", along the lines that Labour's traditional values are still relevant in a modern age, while using those values to better define the current theme that the Tories are the party of waste and the wrong priorities.
It would probably help to have one early totemic policy to back that broader theme up. I would suggest that scrapping the Eastern wing of HS2 would be it, and launching a consultation on how people along the route would like the £50bn to instead be spent on things that really would help their daily lives. Invest in things that matter for the masses, not the elite. That would provide a very long shopping list of goodies to tempt voters back in all those former red wall seats.
But he could, for example, have argued for modification of term dates - an extra week at half term combined with an earlier introduction of the lockdown would have reduced cases far quicker, and might have seen us in a far better state than we are now.
Putting it plainly, Johnson’s assertion that opening schools was ‘risk free’ was clearly untrue when he made it, and he should have been given a harder time over it.
Heidi Allen, Nick Boles, Vince Cable, Ken Clarke, Michael Fallon, Justine Greening, Phil Hammond, Sylvia Hermon, Jo Johnson, Norman Lamb, Oliver Letwin, David Lidington, Patrick McLoughlin, Nicky Morgan, Geoffrey Robinson, Amber Rudd, Rory Stewart, Ed Vaizey, Tom Watson.
Under PM Ken Clarke that would make a far superior cabinet than either Conservatives or Labour can put together (let alone the ones they choose to put together).
He’s morphed lockdown into lockdown lighter but sold it as something new. It would have been cleaner and more honest just to to extend the current arrangement from 2 December for two or three weeks - at least then the regional resentment would not have emerged with little further economic consequence. As Johnson has found, if you’re good at it you can easily bullshit your way through life, but you can’t endlessly bullshit the same people over and over. If you’re a backbencher with zero chance of preferment by this government (Damien Green for example - and there are dozens of others even amongst the newer intake) you’ve more fear of your constituents than of Johnson at this point.
https://twitter.com/MarinaHyde/status/1332953423860420611?s=19