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Betfair’s “Next President” market remains open and so far a staggering £696m of bets have been match

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited November 2020

    One of the most criminal pieces of planner vandalism is this particular example from Newcastle's Bigg Market.

    How about this one in Northampton? From this:
    image

    To this:
    image
    Coventry


  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    Everyone loves pokey old buildings as long as other people are responsible for the upkeep
  • Donald Trump was talked out of launching a missile strike on Iran's main nuclear site by his top advisers last week who warned it could trigger a war

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8956013/Trump-talked-launching-missile-strike-Irans-main-nuclear-site-advisers-week.html
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2020
    A source at the Department of Health and Social Care said the results from the Oxford vaccine trials were “imminent” and that it could be one of the first to be rolled out.

    Pollard told the Guardian that the Oxford/AstraZeneca team expect to have findings from their phase 3 clinical trial within a matter of weeks. Should that be the case, and the team also release their full safety data, some have suggested the vaccine could gain regulatory approval about the same time or before the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. The latter is only expected to finish gathering two months of safety data – the amount required by the US FDA for potential emergency use authorisation – by the third week of November.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/nov/16/moderna-vaccines-effectiveness-bodes-well-for-oxfordastrazeneca-jab
  • South Korea decided to tighten social distancing curbs for the greater Seoul area amid recent spikes in new coronavirus cases, the Yonhap news agency reported on Tuesday, citing a meeting hosted by Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun.
  • Piers Morgan splashes out on £15,000 sound-proofed pod for his garden

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/tvandshowbiz/13215111/piers-morgan-sound-proofed-pod/

    Insert joke here.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    So I see Hancock is quoted as saying that the lockdown might be extended to Christmas because the data isn’t clear if it works. That’s despite the health person at the press conference saying that the looser Tier 3 does apparently work. Nothing like clear messaging.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Donald Trump was talked out of launching a missile strike on Iran's main nuclear site by his top advisers last week who warned it could trigger a war

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8956013/Trump-talked-launching-missile-strike-Irans-main-nuclear-site-advisers-week.html

    He’s presumably holding the order back until the point at which it will have maximum impact. Sometime early January probably...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    Galloway will be the ‘split the unionist vote’ candidate.

    https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/1328438078390800384?s=21
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,770

    A source at the Department of Health and Social Care said the results from the Oxford vaccine trials were “imminent” and that it could be one of the first to be rolled out.

    Pollard told the Guardian that the Oxford/AstraZeneca team expect to have findings from their phase 3 clinical trial within a matter of weeks. Should that be the case, and the team also release their full safety data, some have suggested the vaccine could gain regulatory approval about the same time or before the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. The latter is only expected to finish gathering two months of safety data – the amount required by the US FDA for potential emergency use authorisation – by the third week of November.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/nov/16/moderna-vaccines-effectiveness-bodes-well-for-oxfordastrazeneca-jab

    The third week of November... that's this week, right?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    edited November 2020
    Tony Blair said devolution would finish Scottish independence for good so may be Boris is right to say this.

    "Boris Johnson 'called Scottish devolution disaster'"
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54965585
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    It is, as Mike says, 'crazy'.

    With regards to the Georgia Senate run-offs, there is an ongoing massive spat taking place in the Republican party there: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/gop-secretary-state-goes-facebook-fact-checking-spree-over-trump-n1247898

    We have said it time and again but disunity invariably plays out badly come election time. Trump's playground tantrum is playing right into Democrat hands.

    I am beginning to change my view that the results will be 1-1. The longer this goes on, the more likely it becomes that the Democrats will win both seats.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Andy_JS said:

    Tony Blair said devolution would finish Scottish independence for good so may be Boris is right to say this.

    "Boris Johnson 'called Scottish devolution disaster'"
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54965585

    That's twisting what this is about though Andy. Tony Blair never said devolution would be a disaster: he was hugely pro it and Johnson did not say devolution was a disaster because it would bring independence.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited November 2020
    And here is exactly what I was referring to. It's a Washington Post piece available to read here that speaks about the rift in the GOP that is causing Georgian Republicans to fret about the Senate battles.

    Republicans sound alarm on Georgia Senate runoffs as they privately weigh Trump’s influence

    "These blunt assessments, which see a Republican party in turmoil as Trump refuses to concede to President-elect Joe Biden, had been made on a Nov. 10 meeting with donors hosted by the Nationwide Republican Senatorial Committee. It featured Georgia’s embattled GOP incumbents, Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler, and Karl Rove, a veteran strategist who’s coordinating fundraising for the Jan. 5 runoffs.

    The feedback by the senators and Rove had been shared with The Washington Post by an individual who supplied an in depth and exact account of what was mentioned by every speaker on the decision. The particular person spoke on the condition of anonymity since they weren’t approved to expose the contents of the personal dialogue."



    https://washingtonsources.org/politics/republicans-sound-alarm-on-georgia-senate-runoffs-as-they-privately-weigh-trumps-influence/84755/

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    There were IMO two main issues with the devolution settlement:

    1. It was asymmetric, with no English Parliament. Easy to see why Blair didn’t want this, as it would be more marginal than Scotland and Wales (at the time).

    2. The devolved powers did not include sufficient responsibility for raising the money they spend.

    Given that the genie isn’t going back in the bottle, the best way forward is going to be a more federal system. Let the Scottish government have full control over collecting taxes to fund their own spending.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited November 2020
    The 'best way forward' is for Scotland to ditch Brexit England and rejoin the EU.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    Sandpit said:

    There were IMO two main issues with the devolution settlement:

    1. It was asymmetric, with no English Parliament. Easy to see why Blair didn’t want this, as it would be more marginal than Scotland and Wales (at the time).

    2. The devolved powers did not include sufficient responsibility for raising the money they spend.

    Given that the genie isn’t going back in the bottle, the best way forward is going to be a more federal system. Let the Scottish government have full control over collecting taxes to fund their own spending.

    The best way forward from whose POV, and why would such a move make the demand for independence any less ?
    A federal system cannot be created by a dominant part of the vp nation which does not see the other parts as equals.

    And Brexit has exploded your genie’s bottle.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    Criminally irresponsible to the last.

    https://twitter.com/mmfa/status/1328506670507581447
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461

    A source at the Department of Health and Social Care said the results from the Oxford vaccine trials were “imminent” and that it could be one of the first to be rolled out.

    Pollard told the Guardian that the Oxford/AstraZeneca team expect to have findings from their phase 3 clinical trial within a matter of weeks. Should that be the case, and the team also release their full safety data, some have suggested the vaccine could gain regulatory approval about the same time or before the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. The latter is only expected to finish gathering two months of safety data – the amount required by the US FDA for potential emergency use authorisation – by the third week of November.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/nov/16/moderna-vaccines-effectiveness-bodes-well-for-oxfordastrazeneca-jab

    In my book a matter of weeks is not "imminent". But third week of november would be great for some good news on a UK vaccine.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    There’s some tentative evidence that the vaccines might produce a more effective immune response than infection itself.
    Too early to jump to that conclusion, but on current results, it is a possibility.

    https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1328584235549134852
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    A source at the Department of Health and Social Care said the results from the Oxford vaccine trials were “imminent” and that it could be one of the first to be rolled out.

    Pollard told the Guardian that the Oxford/AstraZeneca team expect to have findings from their phase 3 clinical trial within a matter of weeks. Should that be the case, and the team also release their full safety data, some have suggested the vaccine could gain regulatory approval about the same time or before the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. The latter is only expected to finish gathering two months of safety data – the amount required by the US FDA for potential emergency use authorisation – by the third week of November.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/nov/16/moderna-vaccines-effectiveness-bodes-well-for-oxfordastrazeneca-jab

    Noone has completed p 3 yet, Moderna and Pfizer are interim peeks. Oxford could still be in the lead
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    edited November 2020
    As I recall it, the devolution policy had two parts. One one hand there was the plan, enacted, to give the smaller ancient nations of this island separate Parliaments and consequently some control over their own affairs. Secondly to give something like that to the English regions, which had not been 'separate nations' for over 1000 years; Northumbria, East Anglia and so on. That was comprehensively scuppered by the result of the NE referendum, partly as the result of the machinations of one D Cummings.
    That part of the proposal seems to have morphed Into the sub-regional Mayors policy.

    Of course, PM Johnson only thinks Scottish devolution has been a 'disaster' because the current Scottish PM is, or seems at least, to be a great deal more competent than he is, and he doesn't like it.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    Pulpstar said:

    A source at the Department of Health and Social Care said the results from the Oxford vaccine trials were “imminent” and that it could be one of the first to be rolled out.

    Pollard told the Guardian that the Oxford/AstraZeneca team expect to have findings from their phase 3 clinical trial within a matter of weeks. Should that be the case, and the team also release their full safety data, some have suggested the vaccine could gain regulatory approval about the same time or before the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. The latter is only expected to finish gathering two months of safety data – the amount required by the US FDA for potential emergency use authorisation – by the third week of November.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/nov/16/moderna-vaccines-effectiveness-bodes-well-for-oxfordastrazeneca-jab

    Noone has completed p 3 yet, Moderna and Pfizer are interim peeks. Oxford could still be in the lead
    it`s a bit like Wacky Races
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited November 2020

    And here is exactly what I was referring to. It's a Washington Post piece available to read here that speaks about the rift in the GOP that is causing Georgian Republicans to fret about the Senate battles.

    Republicans sound alarm on Georgia Senate runoffs as they privately weigh Trump’s influence

    "These blunt assessments, which see a Republican party in turmoil as Trump refuses to concede to President-elect Joe Biden, had been made on a Nov. 10 meeting with donors hosted by the Nationwide Republican Senatorial Committee. It featured Georgia’s embattled GOP incumbents, Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler, and Karl Rove, a veteran strategist who’s coordinating fundraising for the Jan. 5 runoffs.

    The feedback by the senators and Rove had been shared with The Washington Post by an individual who supplied an in depth and exact account of what was mentioned by every speaker on the decision. The particular person spoke on the condition of anonymity since they weren’t approved to expose the contents of the personal dialogue."



    https://washingtonsources.org/politics/republicans-sound-alarm-on-georgia-senate-runoffs-as-they-privately-weigh-trumps-influence/84755/

    That wasn’t written as an article in English, right? It strongly reads like an internet translation from a foreign language.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Nigelb said:

    Criminally irresponsible to the last.

    https://twitter.com/mmfa/status/1328506670507581447

    “For many people this is their last Thanksgiving.” If they follow this advice it certainly will be.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    King Cole, aye. The Labour constitutional meddling was designed to give them perpetual Celtic fiefdoms whilst carving England into pieces.

    It failed on both counts.

    The PM's not wrong on devolution but he's a moron to say it. It's about as smart as a man telling his wife that her sister's more attractive than she is.

    The sooner the PCP grow some balls and throw the cretin overboard the better for them and the nation.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    alex_ said:

    So I see Hancock is quoted as saying that the lockdown might be extended to Christmas because the data isn’t clear if it works. That’s despite the health person at the press conference saying that the looser Tier 3 does apparently work. Nothing like clear messaging.

    This is the non falsifiable hypothesis trap that has been discussed here before. The figures improve - lockdown get`s the credit. The figures don`t improve - we haven`t had lockdown for long enough yet.
  • Boris Johnson wants Scottish independence, right? I mean, no other explanation for his behaviour makes sense.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    edited November 2020

    As I recall it, the devolution policy had two parts. One one hand there was the plan, enacted, to give the smaller ancient nations of this island separate Parliaments and consequently some control over their own affairs. Secondly to give something like that to the English regions, which had not been 'separate nations' for over 1000 years; Northumbria, East Anglia and so on. That was comprehensively scuppered by the result of the NE referendum, partly as the result of the machinations of one D Cummings.
    That part of the proposal seems to have morphed Into the sub-regional Mayors policy.

    Of course, PM Johnson only thinks Scottish devolution has been a 'disaster' because the current Scottish PM is, or seems at least, to be a great deal more competent than he is, and he doesn't like it.

    Hmm. Not sure. Many who were opposed to devolution in the first place have remained uncomfortable with it. The argument Blair made was that it had to be done to protect the Union. It`s not working out that way, virus or no virus, is it?

    True though that the pandemic has brought devolution concerns back into focus. I read that when SAGE formulated their initial advice it never occurred to anyone that the devolved assemblies had the power to (or indeed would want to) deviate from a consistent national response.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,735

    Boris Johnson wants Scottish independence, right? I mean, no other explanation for his behaviour makes sense.

    He is a Little Englander, proud poster boy of the Little England project, so yes.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Scott_xP said:

    Boris Johnson wants Scottish independence, right? I mean, no other explanation for his behaviour makes sense.

    He is a Little Englander, proud poster boy of the Little England project, so yes.
    You have attributed a political belief to him. Rookie error.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    edited November 2020

    Boris Johnson wants Scottish independence, right? I mean, no other explanation for his behaviour makes sense.

    I would say that Johnson is very pro-Union. But the realities of Brexit are dawning.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    King Cole, aye. The Labour constitutional meddling was designed to give them perpetual Celtic fiefdoms whilst carving England into pieces.

    It failed on both counts.

    The PM's not wrong on devolution but he's a moron to say it. It's about as smart as a man telling his wife that her sister's more attractive than she is.

    The sooner the PCP grow some balls and throw the cretin overboard the better for them and the nation.

    Your first paragraph is just wrong. For starters, Labour doesn't even stand in Northern Irish elections. In Scotland, devolution was unfinished business from the 70s and was the overwhelming will of the Scottish people, and the form of PR chosen for elections to the Scottish Parliament was explicitly designed to prevent any one party from having a majority. Wales I don't know. If devolution hadn't satisfied Scotland's thirst for independence, you should ponder why that is. Brexit and Boris Johnson are two of the prime suspects.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,735
    IshmaelZ said:

    You have attributed a political belief to him. Rookie error.

    :)

    It's not a political belief though. It was a vehicle to become PM. We may yet see it cast aside...
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653

    Piers Morgan splashes out on £15,000 sound-proofed pod for his garden

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/tvandshowbiz/13215111/piers-morgan-sound-proofed-pod/

    Insert joke here.

    Will it protect him from the sound of his own voice?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,140
    Scott_xP said:
    https://twitter.com/AnasSarwar/status/1328454059142033409

    An example of someone you cannot call pro-indy very concerned to save devolution (okay, and his own job, but still).

    If Mr Johnson creates a forced choice between direct rule and independence, which will win?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,735
    Stocky said:

    Will it protect him from the sound of his own voice?

    He has heard immunity
  • As I recall it, the devolution policy had two parts. One one hand there was the plan, enacted, to give the smaller ancient nations of this island separate Parliaments and consequently some control over their own affairs. Secondly to give something like that to the English regions, which had not been 'separate nations' for over 1000 years; Northumbria, East Anglia and so on. That was comprehensively scuppered by the result of the NE referendum, partly as the result of the machinations of one D Cummings.
    That part of the proposal seems to have morphed Into the sub-regional Mayors policy.

    Of course, PM Johnson only thinks Scottish devolution has been a 'disaster' because the current Scottish PM is, or seems at least, to be a great deal more competent than he is, and he doesn't like it.

    Hence those who say they were designed to emasculate England. Many of the regions made no sense, had no local identity, and there would have been no room for England's own minority nation, Cornwall. On the other hand devolving power to England would by no means bring power closer to the people and one of the most successful federal countries, Germany, deliberately broke up Prussia (although its western territories were a product of nineteenth century expansionism, Prussia was by no means an ancient unified state like England). What a proper federal UK might look like is a bit of a conundrum.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    edited November 2020
    Anyone know whether Nevada certified the result yesterday? I see BF are still taking bets.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164

    As I recall it, the devolution policy had two parts. One one hand there was the plan, enacted, to give the smaller ancient nations of this island separate Parliaments and consequently some control over their own affairs. Secondly to give something like that to the English regions, which had not been 'separate nations' for over 1000 years; Northumbria, East Anglia and so on. That was comprehensively scuppered by the result of the NE referendum, partly as the result of the machinations of one D Cummings.
    That part of the proposal seems to have morphed Into the sub-regional Mayors policy.

    Of course, PM Johnson only thinks Scottish devolution has been a 'disaster' because the current Scottish PM is, or seems at least, to be a great deal more competent than he is, and he doesn't like it.

    Hence those who say they were designed to emasculate England. Many of the regions made no sense, had no local identity, and there would have been no room for England's own minority nation, Cornwall. On the other hand devolving power to England would by no means bring power closer to the people and one of the most successful federal countries, Germany, deliberately broke up Prussia (although its western territories were a product of nineteenth century expansionism, Prussia was by no means an ancient unified state like England). What a proper federal UK might look like is a bit of a conundrum.
    And what was being offered to the North East of England was rubbish. They clearly realised that it was a waste of money and more jobs for the boys (and girls). As someone who lives in a two tier council, I can heartily agree with them.

    If we offered each of the old Government Office Regions of England what Scotland has (i.e. financial, legal and administrative devolution), then that might be another matter.
  • Entertaining as Shagger's devolution comment is, I'm not surprised. How can I put this?

    Boris Johnson is a crap politician.

    If you want light entertainment and a string of love-children conceived with one of the orchestra then he's your man. If you want details, strategy, resolve he's utterly useless. Which is why our Covid "response" has been so deadly, why we are teetering on the edge of not being able to trade in a few weeks and why he's managed to enrage the North and Scotland in rapid succession with the same "missteps". They aren't missteps - its English exceptionalism. And when he says England he doesn't mean up here, he means down there.
  • tlg86 said:

    As I recall it, the devolution policy had two parts. One one hand there was the plan, enacted, to give the smaller ancient nations of this island separate Parliaments and consequently some control over their own affairs. Secondly to give something like that to the English regions, which had not been 'separate nations' for over 1000 years; Northumbria, East Anglia and so on. That was comprehensively scuppered by the result of the NE referendum, partly as the result of the machinations of one D Cummings.
    That part of the proposal seems to have morphed Into the sub-regional Mayors policy.

    Of course, PM Johnson only thinks Scottish devolution has been a 'disaster' because the current Scottish PM is, or seems at least, to be a great deal more competent than he is, and he doesn't like it.

    Hence those who say they were designed to emasculate England. Many of the regions made no sense, had no local identity, and there would have been no room for England's own minority nation, Cornwall. On the other hand devolving power to England would by no means bring power closer to the people and one of the most successful federal countries, Germany, deliberately broke up Prussia (although its western territories were a product of nineteenth century expansionism, Prussia was by no means an ancient unified state like England). What a proper federal UK might look like is a bit of a conundrum.
    And what was being offered to the North East of England was rubbish. They clearly realised that it was a waste of money and more jobs for the boys (and girls). As someone who lives in a two tier council, I can heartily agree with them.

    If we offered each of the old Government Office Regions of England what Scotland has (i.e. financial, legal and administrative devolution), then that might be another matter.
    But many regions make no sense and have no local support. Why not offer that to Hampshire or Cornwall?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,061

    Boris Johnson wants Scottish independence, right? I mean, no other explanation for his behaviour makes sense.

    I suppose the other obvious possibility is that he mouths off without thinking...
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    As I recall it, the devolution policy had two parts. One one hand there was the plan, enacted, to give the smaller ancient nations of this island separate Parliaments and consequently some control over their own affairs. Secondly to give something like that to the English regions, which had not been 'separate nations' for over 1000 years; Northumbria, East Anglia and so on. That was comprehensively scuppered by the result of the NE referendum, partly as the result of the machinations of one D Cummings.
    That part of the proposal seems to have morphed Into the sub-regional Mayors policy.

    Of course, PM Johnson only thinks Scottish devolution has been a 'disaster' because the current Scottish PM is, or seems at least, to be a great deal more competent than he is, and he doesn't like it.

    Hence those who say they were designed to emasculate England. Many of the regions made no sense, had no local identity, and there would have been no room for England's own minority nation, Cornwall. On the other hand devolving power to England would by no means bring power closer to the people and one of the most successful federal countries, Germany, deliberately broke up Prussia (although its western territories were a product of nineteenth century expansionism, Prussia was by no means an ancient unified state like England). What a proper federal UK might look like is a bit of a conundrum.
    Britain remains one of the most (maybe *the*) most centralised country in the West.
    Proportion of GDP spent by local authorities is miniscule. Councils are weak and ineffective. Apart from a democratic deficit and public policy dysfunction, it is thought by many economists to be retarding economic growth.

    It is an entertaining parlour game to devise various ways of slicing up the U.K. more coherently (I agree, for example, about Cornwall) but Blair was right at least to seek a form of devolution for England.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,061

    tlg86 said:

    As I recall it, the devolution policy had two parts. One one hand there was the plan, enacted, to give the smaller ancient nations of this island separate Parliaments and consequently some control over their own affairs. Secondly to give something like that to the English regions, which had not been 'separate nations' for over 1000 years; Northumbria, East Anglia and so on. That was comprehensively scuppered by the result of the NE referendum, partly as the result of the machinations of one D Cummings.
    That part of the proposal seems to have morphed Into the sub-regional Mayors policy.

    Of course, PM Johnson only thinks Scottish devolution has been a 'disaster' because the current Scottish PM is, or seems at least, to be a great deal more competent than he is, and he doesn't like it.

    Hence those who say they were designed to emasculate England. Many of the regions made no sense, had no local identity, and there would have been no room for England's own minority nation, Cornwall. On the other hand devolving power to England would by no means bring power closer to the people and one of the most successful federal countries, Germany, deliberately broke up Prussia (although its western territories were a product of nineteenth century expansionism, Prussia was by no means an ancient unified state like England). What a proper federal UK might look like is a bit of a conundrum.
    And what was being offered to the North East of England was rubbish. They clearly realised that it was a waste of money and more jobs for the boys (and girls). As someone who lives in a two tier council, I can heartily agree with them.

    If we offered each of the old Government Office Regions of England what Scotland has (i.e. financial, legal and administrative devolution), then that might be another matter.
    But many regions make no sense and have no local support. Why not offer that to Hampshire or Cornwall?
    The only acceptable devolution in England is to local government. At the moment they get very little freedom of action. In Victorian times, city fathers like Joe Chamberlain had considerable powers to develop their own patch.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    I see Biden's lead in Pennsylvania is now over 1%, by the way. If in an alternative reality Trump managed to reverse the results in the three states where the lead is less than 1% - Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin - he would still achieve only a tie in the electoral college.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,061
    I see that Macho Populism is wearing a bit thin in the Southern Hemisphere too:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/16/setback-for-bolsonaro-after-poor-results-in-brazil-local-elections
  • Dr. Foxy, why not an English Parliament?

    If it's good enough for Scotland, it's good enough for England.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,140

    As I recall it, the devolution policy had two parts. One one hand there was the plan, enacted, to give the smaller ancient nations of this island separate Parliaments and consequently some control over their own affairs. Secondly to give something like that to the English regions, which had not been 'separate nations' for over 1000 years; Northumbria, East Anglia and so on. That was comprehensively scuppered by the result of the NE referendum, partly as the result of the machinations of one D Cummings.
    That part of the proposal seems to have morphed Into the sub-regional Mayors policy.

    Of course, PM Johnson only thinks Scottish devolution has been a 'disaster' because the current Scottish PM is, or seems at least, to be a great deal more competent than he is, and he doesn't like it.

    Hence those who say they were designed to emasculate England. Many of the regions made no sense, had no local identity, and there would have been no room for England's own minority nation, Cornwall. On the other hand devolving power to England would by no means bring power closer to the people and one of the most successful federal countries, Germany, deliberately broke up Prussia (although its western territories were a product of nineteenth century expansionism, Prussia was by no means an ancient unified state like England). What a proper federal UK might look like is a bit of a conundrum.
    We did discuss that last point on PB In 2013-4 and could never work it out.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,346

    A source at the Department of Health and Social Care said the results from the Oxford vaccine trials were “imminent” and that it could be one of the first to be rolled out.

    Pollard told the Guardian that the Oxford/AstraZeneca team expect to have findings from their phase 3 clinical trial within a matter of weeks. Should that be the case, and the team also release their full safety data, some have suggested the vaccine could gain regulatory approval about the same time or before the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. The latter is only expected to finish gathering two months of safety data – the amount required by the US FDA for potential emergency use authorisation – by the third week of November.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/nov/16/moderna-vaccines-effectiveness-bodes-well-for-oxfordastrazeneca-jab

    In my book a matter of weeks is not "imminent". But third week of november would be great for some good news on a UK vaccine.
    My wife received a text yesterday (sent to all staff at her hospital) to prepare to be vaccinated very shortly.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    Stocky said:

    alex_ said:

    So I see Hancock is quoted as saying that the lockdown might be extended to Christmas because the data isn’t clear if it works. That’s despite the health person at the press conference saying that the looser Tier 3 does apparently work. Nothing like clear messaging.

    This is the non falsifiable hypothesis trap that has been discussed here before. The figures improve - lockdown get`s the credit. The figures don`t improve - we haven`t had lockdown for long enough yet.
    I'm very happy for other countries to falsify the hypothesis that lockdowns don't work.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    It is, as Mike says, 'crazy'.

    With regards to the Georgia Senate run-offs, there is an ongoing massive spat taking place in the Republican party there: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/gop-secretary-state-goes-facebook-fact-checking-spree-over-trump-n1247898

    We have said it time and again but disunity invariably plays out badly come election time. Trump's playground tantrum is playing right into Democrat hands.

    I am beginning to change my view that the results will be 1-1. The longer this goes on, the more likely it becomes that the Democrats will win both seats.

    I think in this instance the disunity helps the Republicans.

    Moderate Republicans get the reassurance that they want, that the party isn't lost to the Trumpists and it's safe to vote for them.

    The Trumpists get all the rabble-rousing necessary to rouse them to the polling station.

    I don't think that there's any unity that can successfully encompass those two wings of the Republican party.

    Meanwhile, any message the Democrats want to get out is drowned out.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880

    Dr. Foxy, why not an English Parliament?

    If it's good enough for Scotland, it's good enough for England.

    The one in Westminster will be an English parliament soon enough...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,140
    Foxy said:
    Though the vote rigging did not succeed.

    Instead, the kakapo won ...

    " Aged 23 – scientists believe kākāpō can live for around 60 years – Sirocco has toured New Zealand to promote the plight of his species. In 2009, he rocketed to global fame after attempting to mate with zoologist Mark Carwardine’s head during filming for the BBC documentary Last Chance to See with British actor Stephen Fry, who likened the bird’s face to that of a Victorian gentleman."
  • A source at the Department of Health and Social Care said the results from the Oxford vaccine trials were “imminent” and that it could be one of the first to be rolled out.

    Pollard told the Guardian that the Oxford/AstraZeneca team expect to have findings from their phase 3 clinical trial within a matter of weeks. Should that be the case, and the team also release their full safety data, some have suggested the vaccine could gain regulatory approval about the same time or before the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. The latter is only expected to finish gathering two months of safety data – the amount required by the US FDA for potential emergency use authorisation – by the third week of November.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/nov/16/moderna-vaccines-effectiveness-bodes-well-for-oxfordastrazeneca-jab

    In my book a matter of weeks is not "imminent". But third week of november would be great for some good news on a UK vaccine.
    My wife received a text yesterday (sent to all staff at her hospital) to prepare to be vaccinated very shortly.
    I would be a touch flummoxed by such a request, what practical action is required for preparation?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Good morning, everyone.

    King Cole, aye. The Labour constitutional meddling was designed to give them perpetual Celtic fiefdoms whilst carving England into pieces.

    It failed on both counts.

    The PM's not wrong on devolution but he's a moron to say it. It's about as smart as a man telling his wife that her sister's more attractive than she is.

    The sooner the PCP grow some balls and throw the cretin overboard the better for them and the nation.

    Your first paragraph is just wrong. For starters, Labour doesn't even stand in Northern Irish elections. In Scotland, devolution was unfinished business from the 70s and was the overwhelming will of the Scottish people, and the form of PR chosen for elections to the Scottish Parliament was explicitly designed to prevent any one party from having a majority. Wales I don't know. If devolution hadn't satisfied Scotland's thirst for independence, you should ponder why that is. Brexit and Boris Johnson are two of the prime suspects.
    It's the old English imperialism coming out. Who needs devolution when you have such benign rule from Westminster.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,140

    A source at the Department of Health and Social Care said the results from the Oxford vaccine trials were “imminent” and that it could be one of the first to be rolled out.

    Pollard told the Guardian that the Oxford/AstraZeneca team expect to have findings from their phase 3 clinical trial within a matter of weeks. Should that be the case, and the team also release their full safety data, some have suggested the vaccine could gain regulatory approval about the same time or before the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. The latter is only expected to finish gathering two months of safety data – the amount required by the US FDA for potential emergency use authorisation – by the third week of November.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/nov/16/moderna-vaccines-effectiveness-bodes-well-for-oxfordastrazeneca-jab

    In my book a matter of weeks is not "imminent". But third week of november would be great for some good news on a UK vaccine.
    My wife received a text yesterday (sent to all staff at her hospital) to prepare to be vaccinated very shortly.
    I would be a touch flummoxed by such a request, what practical action is required for preparation?
    Wear a T-shirt?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Donald Trump was talked out of launching a missile strike on Iran's main nuclear site by his top advisers last week who warned it could trigger a war

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8956013/Trump-talked-launching-missile-strike-Irans-main-nuclear-site-advisers-week.html

    Not entirely fair reporting

    He asked for an assessment of options. He decided not to attack. Everything else is conjecture and positioning
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    tlg86 said:

    As I recall it, the devolution policy had two parts. One one hand there was the plan, enacted, to give the smaller ancient nations of this island separate Parliaments and consequently some control over their own affairs. Secondly to give something like that to the English regions, which had not been 'separate nations' for over 1000 years; Northumbria, East Anglia and so on. That was comprehensively scuppered by the result of the NE referendum, partly as the result of the machinations of one D Cummings.
    That part of the proposal seems to have morphed Into the sub-regional Mayors policy.

    Of course, PM Johnson only thinks Scottish devolution has been a 'disaster' because the current Scottish PM is, or seems at least, to be a great deal more competent than he is, and he doesn't like it.

    Hence those who say they were designed to emasculate England. Many of the regions made no sense, had no local identity, and there would have been no room for England's own minority nation, Cornwall. On the other hand devolving power to England would by no means bring power closer to the people and one of the most successful federal countries, Germany, deliberately broke up Prussia (although its western territories were a product of nineteenth century expansionism, Prussia was by no means an ancient unified state like England). What a proper federal UK might look like is a bit of a conundrum.
    And what was being offered to the North East of England was rubbish. They clearly realised that it was a waste of money and more jobs for the boys (and girls). As someone who lives in a two tier council, I can heartily agree with them.

    If we offered each of the old Government Office Regions of England what Scotland has (i.e. financial, legal and administrative devolution), then that might be another matter.
    Yes, the problem with the NE was that most of the powers were coming up to it, rather than down to it. It made government more remote from the people, and created more politicians and hangers-on spending money on their own administration.

    Personally I don’t like the concept of “regions”, would prefer powers to be devolved down to counties under an English Parliament.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    Charles said:

    Donald Trump was talked out of launching a missile strike on Iran's main nuclear site by his top advisers last week who warned it could trigger a war

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8956013/Trump-talked-launching-missile-strike-Irans-main-nuclear-site-advisers-week.html

    Not entirely fair reporting

    He asked for an assessment of options. He decided not to attack. Everything else is conjecture and positioning
    So far, at least, he has been one of the least belligerent US Presidents in recent times, certainly since 9/11,
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,346

    A source at the Department of Health and Social Care said the results from the Oxford vaccine trials were “imminent” and that it could be one of the first to be rolled out.

    Pollard told the Guardian that the Oxford/AstraZeneca team expect to have findings from their phase 3 clinical trial within a matter of weeks. Should that be the case, and the team also release their full safety data, some have suggested the vaccine could gain regulatory approval about the same time or before the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. The latter is only expected to finish gathering two months of safety data – the amount required by the US FDA for potential emergency use authorisation – by the third week of November.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/nov/16/moderna-vaccines-effectiveness-bodes-well-for-oxfordastrazeneca-jab

    In my book a matter of weeks is not "imminent". But third week of november would be great for some good news on a UK vaccine.
    My wife received a text yesterday (sent to all staff at her hospital) to prepare to be vaccinated very shortly.
    I would be a touch flummoxed by such a request, what practical action is required for preparation?
    To ensure that you already had your flu vaccination, apparently you need 7 days between vaccines
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Andy_JS said:

    Tony Blair said devolution would finish Scottish independence for good so may be Boris is right to say this.

    "Boris Johnson 'called Scottish devolution disaster'"
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54965585

    That's twisting what this is about though Andy. Tony Blair never said devolution would be a disaster: he was hugely pro it and Johnson did not say devolution was a disaster because it would bring independence.
    That’s a bit like saying “replacing a dictator in Iraq with a stable democracy is a great idea... shame about the implementation”
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Stocky said:

    Anyone know whether Nevada certified the result yesterday? I see BF are still taking bets.

    USA's ridiculous system strikes again.
    https://knpr.org/headline/2020-11/nevada-counties-begin-certifying-vote-2-legal-cases-pending
    Washoe and Clark are certified, smaller rurals will probably drag their heels till the 24th. Sorry I thought yesterday was THE date
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    edited November 2020
    I agree broadly that what Scotland already has should be devolved likewise to England.

    However, England as a nation is too big.
    Any English Parliament would effectively rival Westminster and likely lead to the dissolution of the Union.

    On the other hand county councils are, generally, too small: the “functional economic market areas” that need managing tend to cross multiple county lines.

    The answer therefore is English Regions.

    The naming and precise division of Blairite regions were not really to my taste, but they weren’t terrible either.

    A Northumbria (not “North East”, urgh) and a Yorkshire make sense as regions do they not?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Nigelb said:

    There’s some tentative evidence that the vaccines might produce a more effective immune response than infection itself.
    Too early to jump to that conclusion, but on current results, it is a possibility.

    https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1328584235549134852

    P1 data though. It’s like relying on Scottish sub samples
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,061
    edited November 2020

    Dr. Foxy, why not an English Parliament?

    If it's good enough for Scotland, it's good enough for England.

    Not a problem for me, but I think a whole England Parliament would not give much voice to the neglected parts of Provincial England.
    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:
    Though the vote rigging did not sucParliament
    Instead, the kakapo won ...

    " Aged 23 – scientists believe kākāpō can live for around 60 years – Sirocco has toured New Zealand to promote the plight of his species. In 2009, he rocketed to global fame after attempting to mate with zoologist Mark Carwardine’s head during filming for the BBC documentary Last Chance to See with British actor Stephen Fry, who likened the bird’s face to that of a Victorian gentleman."
    The Albatross won by FPTP, the Kakapo clinched it because of the superior AV system being used 😃
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dr. Foxy, why not an English Parliament?

    If it's good enough for Scotland, it's good enough for England.

    The one in Westminster will be an English parliament soon enough...
    A little English parliament.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    As I recall it, the devolution policy had two parts. One one hand there was the plan, enacted, to give the smaller ancient nations of this island separate Parliaments and consequently some control over their own affairs. Secondly to give something like that to the English regions, which had not been 'separate nations' for over 1000 years; Northumbria, East Anglia and so on. That was comprehensively scuppered by the result of the NE referendum, partly as the result of the machinations of one D Cummings.
    That part of the proposal seems to have morphed Into the sub-regional Mayors policy.

    Of course, PM Johnson only thinks Scottish devolution has been a 'disaster' because the current Scottish PM is, or seems at least, to be a great deal more competent than he is, and he doesn't like it.

    The issue is not about Sturgeon being more competent than Boris (tbd but she is certainly a better presenter).

    It’s the fact that she’s a grievance monger who seeks to divide and split, setting one against another. I understand that’s her political objective, but a system that facilitated that behaviour is sub optimal
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Chris said:

    I see Biden's lead in Pennsylvania is now over 1%, by the way. If in an alternative reality Trump managed to reverse the results in the three states where the lead is less than 1% - Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin - he would still achieve only a tie in the electoral college.

    Unfortunately a tie means Trump is POTUS.
    State delegations in the house.
    Arizona has no recount provision though !
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Stocky said:

    Anyone know whether Nevada certified the result yesterday? I see BF are still taking bets.

    I think so. But i see Trump is trying to stoke more fires by alleging that the election is unsafe on the basis that Clark County have ordered a rerun of a minor race where the number of "unresolvable irregularities" exceeded the size of the majority. That number being in the region of ten votes.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Tory opposition to regions was disastrous.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Stocky said:

    alex_ said:

    So I see Hancock is quoted as saying that the lockdown might be extended to Christmas because the data isn’t clear if it works. That’s despite the health person at the press conference saying that the looser Tier 3 does apparently work. Nothing like clear messaging.

    This is the non falsifiable hypothesis trap that has been discussed here before. The figures improve - lockdown get`s the credit. The figures don`t improve - we haven`t had lockdown for long enough yet.
    Aka the elephant powder hypothesis
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    Looking at the US elections Biden got 93% of the vote in District of Columbia and Trump just over 5%. No wonder the Democrats want to turn it into a State. Not likely to happen now without control of the Senate, of course.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    I find the PR system used in Scotland (and Wales) a bit weird. It’s a kind of FPTP system masquerading as PR.

    In effect it gives dominance to the leading party, which I guess Labour assumed would only ever be itself.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    As I recall it, the devolution policy had two parts. One one hand there was the plan, enacted, to give the smaller ancient nations of this island separate Parliaments and consequently some control over their own affairs. Secondly to give something like that to the English regions, which had not been 'separate nations' for over 1000 years; Northumbria, East Anglia and so on. That was comprehensively scuppered by the result of the NE referendum, partly as the result of the machinations of one D Cummings.
    That part of the proposal seems to have morphed Into the sub-regional Mayors policy.

    Of course, PM Johnson only thinks Scottish devolution has been a 'disaster' because the current Scottish PM is, or seems at least, to be a great deal more competent than he is, and he doesn't like it.

    Hence those who say they were designed to emasculate England. Many of the regions made no sense, had no local identity, and there would have been no room for England's own minority nation, Cornwall. On the other hand devolving power to England would by no means bring power closer to the people and one of the most successful federal countries, Germany, deliberately broke up Prussia (although its western territories were a product of nineteenth century expansionism, Prussia was by no means an ancient unified state like England). What a proper federal UK might look like is a bit of a conundrum.
    Easy - go for the Saxon kingdoms plus London and Cornwall
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    As I recall it, the devolution policy had two parts. One one hand there was the plan, enacted, to give the smaller ancient nations of this island separate Parliaments and consequently some control over their own affairs. Secondly to give something like that to the English regions, which had not been 'separate nations' for over 1000 years; Northumbria, East Anglia and so on. That was comprehensively scuppered by the result of the NE referendum, partly as the result of the machinations of one D Cummings.
    That part of the proposal seems to have morphed Into the sub-regional Mayors policy.

    Of course, PM Johnson only thinks Scottish devolution has been a 'disaster' because the current Scottish PM is, or seems at least, to be a great deal more competent than he is, and he doesn't like it.

    Hence those who say they were designed to emasculate England. Many of the regions made no sense, had no local identity, and there would have been no room for England's own minority nation, Cornwall. On the other hand devolving power to England would by no means bring power closer to the people and one of the most successful federal countries, Germany, deliberately broke up Prussia (although its western territories were a product of nineteenth century expansionism, Prussia was by no means an ancient unified state like England). What a proper federal UK might look like is a bit of a conundrum.
    And what was being offered to the North East of England was rubbish. They clearly realised that it was a waste of money and more jobs for the boys (and girls). As someone who lives in a two tier council, I can heartily agree with them.

    If we offered each of the old Government Office Regions of England what Scotland has (i.e. financial, legal and administrative devolution), then that might be another matter.
    Yes, the problem with the NE was that most of the powers were coming up to it, rather than down to it. It made government more remote from the people, and created more politicians and hangers-on spending money on their own administration.

    Personally I don’t like the concept of “regions”, would prefer powers to be devolved down to counties under an English Parliament.
    As I recall part of the problem was that it was seen as an extra layer, rather than replacing one of the existing ones..... such as counties.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    Donald Trump was talked out of launching a missile strike on Iran's main nuclear site by his top advisers last week who warned it could trigger a war

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8956013/Trump-talked-launching-missile-strike-Irans-main-nuclear-site-advisers-week.html

    Not entirely fair reporting

    He asked for an assessment of options. He decided not to attack. Everything else is conjecture and positioning
    So far, at least, he has been one of the least belligerent US Presidents in recent times, certainly since 9/11,
    Past form cannot definitively be seen as a guide to future actions. Hopefully it is a completely misguided fear, but given Trump's failure to accept the clear outcome of the election and explore any options to subvert/overturn it (whilst also in many areas actively working against a successful transition and actively taking actions to undermine the new administration) I don't think one can completely rule out the possibility that he might try to engineer some sort of foreign policy crisis before he goes.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164

    I find the PR system used in Scotland (and Wales) a bit weird. It’s a kind of FPTP system masquerading as PR.

    In effect it gives dominance to the leading party, which I guess Labour assumed would only ever be itself.

    I find the Germany version even stranger. They do the same thing but they adjust the number of list seats until the total number of representatives is proportional. Last time they went from 631 seats to 709.
  • Mr. Boy, NI is a separate case. It's difficult for Labour to have a Celtic fiefdom in a place it doesn't stand candidates...

    Mr. Charles, but then any such regional political body must necessarily lack the powers of Holyrood, unless you're calling for there to be separate tax rates, education and health policies within different parts of England. That strikes me as unacceptable. And the natural consequence of slicing England into pieces.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    Donald Trump was talked out of launching a missile strike on Iran's main nuclear site by his top advisers last week who warned it could trigger a war

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8956013/Trump-talked-launching-missile-strike-Irans-main-nuclear-site-advisers-week.html

    Not entirely fair reporting

    He asked for an assessment of options. He decided not to attack. Everything else is conjecture and positioning
    So far, at least, he has been one of the least belligerent US Presidents in recent times, certainly since 9/11,
    Yes. Maybe there’s some like d of global prize he could get? A prize for not fighting wars?
  • DavidL said:

    Looking at the US elections Biden got 93% of the vote in District of Columbia and Trump just over 5%. No wonder the Democrats want to turn it into a State. Not likely to happen now without control of the Senate, of course.

    I didn't notice much debate on here about whther the GoP would win the two Special Elections in Georgia. I haven't much of a view on this but suspect they will win one or possibly two and therefore hang on to the Senate, which seems to be what people want whilst giving the execrable Trump the boot.

    The Dems best chance would be if Trump hangs on until Election Day. He is looking more and more ridiculous and that might boost the Dems to the extent they became an even money chance?

    Not sure. Views anybody?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762

    I find the PR system used in Scotland (and Wales) a bit weird. It’s a kind of FPTP system masquerading as PR.

    In effect it gives dominance to the leading party, which I guess Labour assumed would only ever be itself.

    Not sure I agree with that. The dominant party can do better than their share of the vote by winning a lot of the constituencies but they are then penalised on the list vote so that other parties get a voice and the Parliament is more representative, if not precisely so. I think its better than the Westminster system to be honest. What it didn't foresee was a situation where around half of the population voted for 1 party because of 1 policy.

    I certainly agree that Labour assumed that they would dominate it. I remember Donald Dewar explaining that every single councillor in his seat, and at that time there were 2 layers district and regional, was held by Labour. Changed days indeed.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,615
    Chris said:

    Stocky said:

    alex_ said:

    So I see Hancock is quoted as saying that the lockdown might be extended to Christmas because the data isn’t clear if it works. That’s despite the health person at the press conference saying that the looser Tier 3 does apparently work. Nothing like clear messaging.

    This is the non falsifiable hypothesis trap that has been discussed here before. The figures improve - lockdown get`s the credit. The figures don`t improve - we haven`t had lockdown for long enough yet.
    I'm very happy for other countries to falsify the hypothesis that lockdowns don't work.
    But.... Sweden... etc etc...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    Donald Trump was talked out of launching a missile strike on Iran's main nuclear site by his top advisers last week who warned it could trigger a war

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8956013/Trump-talked-launching-missile-strike-Irans-main-nuclear-site-advisers-week.html

    Not entirely fair reporting

    He asked for an assessment of options. He decided not to attack. Everything else is conjecture and positioning
    So far, at least, he has been one of the least belligerent US Presidents in recent times, certainly since 9/11,
    Yes. Maybe there’s some like d of global prize he could get? A prize for not fighting wars?
    Maybe Obama, the drone warrior, could lend him one?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    Chris said:

    Stocky said:

    alex_ said:

    So I see Hancock is quoted as saying that the lockdown might be extended to Christmas because the data isn’t clear if it works. That’s despite the health person at the press conference saying that the looser Tier 3 does apparently work. Nothing like clear messaging.

    This is the non falsifiable hypothesis trap that has been discussed here before. The figures improve - lockdown get`s the credit. The figures don`t improve - we haven`t had lockdown for long enough yet.
    I'm very happy for other countries to falsify the hypothesis that lockdowns don't work.
    Of course they work - the question is when to apply them and for how long.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762

    DavidL said:

    Looking at the US elections Biden got 93% of the vote in District of Columbia and Trump just over 5%. No wonder the Democrats want to turn it into a State. Not likely to happen now without control of the Senate, of course.

    I didn't notice much debate on here about whther the GoP would win the two Special Elections in Georgia. I haven't much of a view on this but suspect they will win one or possibly two and therefore hang on to the Senate, which seems to be what people want whilst giving the execrable Trump the boot.

    The Dems best chance would be if Trump hangs on until Election Day. He is looking more and more ridiculous and that might boost the Dems to the extent they became an even money chance?

    Not sure. Views anybody?
    I think 1-1 in Georgia, I really can't see the GOP screwing up so badly that they lose both. The GOP will be keen to protect the control Trump has given them in the SC.
  • Back on 'devolution', this is a Westminster Bubble topic for most, although it matters desperately for those for whom it matters desperately.

    The long view has to be that the UK is breaking up and politicians can only by and large aid or hinder the process. Boris seems to be doing his bit on the aid side.

    Brexit of course has helped the process. I can only see it accelerating next year, unless of course Brexit turns out to be a storming success.

    Hands up all those who think it is likely to be a storming success.





    Thought so.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715

    DavidL said:

    Looking at the US elections Biden got 93% of the vote in District of Columbia and Trump just over 5%. No wonder the Democrats want to turn it into a State. Not likely to happen now without control of the Senate, of course.

    I didn't notice much debate on here about whther the GoP would win the two Special Elections in Georgia. I haven't much of a view on this but suspect they will win one or possibly two and therefore hang on to the Senate, which seems to be what people want whilst giving the execrable Trump the boot.

    The Dems best chance would be if Trump hangs on until Election Day. He is looking more and more ridiculous and that might boost the Dems to the extent they became an even money chance?

    Not sure. Views anybody?
    Would Trump's doing that finally put an end to his support in the GOP, outside a lunatic fringe. If the party had no power bases, for a couple of years at least, in Washington the top brass would be mightily miffed!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    I agree broadly that what Scotland already has should be devolved likewise to England.

    However, England as a nation is too big.
    Any English Parliament would effectively rival Westminster and likely lead to the dissolution of the Union.

    On the other hand county councils are, generally, too small: the “functional economic market areas” that need managing tend to cross multiple county lines.

    The answer therefore is English Regions.

    The naming and precise division of Blairite regions were not really to my taste, but they weren’t terrible either.

    A Northumbria (not “North East”, urgh) and a Yorkshire make sense as regions do they not?

    Yes. I've advocated a return broadly to the Heptarchy on here, with modifications for London's growth. The most sensible division I can think of ends up with regions of wildly varying size, which is a demerit, but gives you a chance of testing whether the small areas ought to be folded into the larger, or the larger areas broken up further, after a couple of decades. So, something like:

    1. Ultra London (GLA + Thames catchment/nearest commuter towns)
    2. South Coast (Hampshire to Kent)
    3. Wessex
    4. Cornwall
    5. Mercia
    6. East Anglia
    7. Yorkshire
    8. Greater Lancashire
    9. Northumbria
    10. Cumbria (south Strathclyde, as was)

    Ultra London becomes the largest Federal unit, but it's down to less than one-third of the whole, rather than the 85% that is England.

    The myth of Tory England, as a uniform whole, that is used so effectively by Sturgeon, would be shattered. But England would still exist.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Stocky said:

    Anyone know whether Nevada certified the result yesterday? I see BF are still taking bets.

    Results have been certified but there are still 2 open court cases in Nevada. Sigh.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Mr. Boy, NI is a separate case. It's difficult for Labour to have a Celtic fiefdom in a place it doesn't stand candidates...

    Mr. Charles, but then any such regional political body must necessarily lack the powers of Holyrood, unless you're calling for there to be separate tax rates, education and health policies within different parts of England. That strikes me as unacceptable. And the natural consequence of slicing England into pieces.

    Not necessarily.

    If you want the Union to survive you need a federal system.

    Where you have querulous nationalist party as one of the entrenched parties then they will just chip and chip
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    DavidL said:

    I find the PR system used in Scotland (and Wales) a bit weird. It’s a kind of FPTP system masquerading as PR.

    In effect it gives dominance to the leading party, which I guess Labour assumed would only ever be itself.

    Not sure I agree with that. The dominant party can do better than their share of the vote by winning a lot of the constituencies but they are then penalised on the list vote so that other parties get a voice and the Parliament is more representative, if not precisely so. I think its better than the Westminster system to be honest. What it didn't foresee was a situation where around half of the population voted for 1 party because of 1 policy.

    I certainly agree that Labour assumed that they would dominate it. I remember Donald Dewar explaining that every single councillor in his seat, and at that time there were 2 layers district and regional, was held by Labour. Changed days indeed.
    Electoral systems are quite boring...but the allocation of list seats according to regional party votes effectively overly privileges the leading national party.

    In NZ, if Labour Party win 50% of the vote they end up with 50% of the seats. As just happened.

    Whereas in 2016, the SNP won 42% of the list vote but ended with 49% of the seats...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    alex_ said:

    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    Donald Trump was talked out of launching a missile strike on Iran's main nuclear site by his top advisers last week who warned it could trigger a war

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8956013/Trump-talked-launching-missile-strike-Irans-main-nuclear-site-advisers-week.html

    Not entirely fair reporting

    He asked for an assessment of options. He decided not to attack. Everything else is conjecture and positioning
    So far, at least, he has been one of the least belligerent US Presidents in recent times, certainly since 9/11,
    Past form cannot definitively be seen as a guide to future actions. Hopefully it is a completely misguided fear, but given Trump's failure to accept the clear outcome of the election and explore any options to subvert/overturn it (whilst also in many areas actively working against a successful transition and actively taking actions to undermine the new administration) I don't think one can completely rule out the possibility that he might try to engineer some sort of foreign policy crisis before he goes.
    That's why I said so far. We can only hope not. He has of course created any number of foreign policy crises: the new trade grouping in Asia is an enormous blow to US influence and trade, he has seriously weakened NATO, he has undermined the Paris accords, his policy in respect of Iran has been disastrous, everywhere you look the US is regarded as a less reliable friend and ally. It's just that most of these disasters have not involved shooting. Yet.
  • DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    Donald Trump was talked out of launching a missile strike on Iran's main nuclear site by his top advisers last week who warned it could trigger a war

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8956013/Trump-talked-launching-missile-strike-Irans-main-nuclear-site-advisers-week.html

    Not entirely fair reporting

    He asked for an assessment of options. He decided not to attack. Everything else is conjecture and positioning
    So far, at least, he has been one of the least belligerent US Presidents in recent times, certainly since 9/11,
    Yes. Maybe there’s some like d of global prize he could get? A prize for not fighting wars?
    Maybe Obama, the drone warrior, could lend him one?
    He didn't really start any wars it's true and it's one reason why his term didn't work out as bad as people like me feared.

    His actions in respect of the Turkish Kurds was however appalling and likely to have extensive long-term ramifications. His so-called Middle East initiative is another example of making a bad situation worse.

    But he didn't start a nuclear war (yet) so judging by that exceptionally low standard you have to say his foreign policy was not too bad.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Stocky said:

    Chris said:

    Stocky said:

    alex_ said:

    So I see Hancock is quoted as saying that the lockdown might be extended to Christmas because the data isn’t clear if it works. That’s despite the health person at the press conference saying that the looser Tier 3 does apparently work. Nothing like clear messaging.

    This is the non falsifiable hypothesis trap that has been discussed here before. The figures improve - lockdown get`s the credit. The figures don`t improve - we haven`t had lockdown for long enough yet.
    I'm very happy for other countries to falsify the hypothesis that lockdowns don't work.
    Of course they work - the question is when to apply them and for how long.
    And whether they are necessary, given that they are hardly cost free. I understand somebody arguing that areas shouldn't go back to restrictions that fail to sufficiently contain the spread of the virus (sans a vaccine). What doesn't to me particularly make sense is to suggest that a slightly looser, and therefore less economically and socially damaging set of restrictions ("Tier 3/Tier 3plus") are effective, but we should nevertheless persist with restrictions at a higher level.
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