Covid-19 vaccine candidate is 90% effective, says manufacturer Interim analysis of vaccine by Pfizer/BioNTech far exceeds expectations of most experts
Peer reviewed or ignore.
Don’t be childish
I'm not being childish. I'm arguing against leaping to hope -- or worse, complacency -- before the scientific process is finished. I desperately want this to be true. But I don't trust purported medical breakthroughs until they've gone through the the processes. Nor should you.
I don't trust it in the sense of rushing out and trying to get a shot.
But given the repetitional risk on that press release, the company must have some really solid science behind that.
Come to think of it, if they can't justify the 90% bit, the stock market regulators will come for them....
Agreed, which is why I would tend to think that they are being earnest. But there's a way to go before a purported cure is actually out there saving lives. If, god forbid, there's something wrong with the data that hasn't been picked up yet, or a complication with the safety of it, it'll be crushing. I guess I could have put it in a better way: let's not count our chickens. Let's not assume we're weeks from returning to normal.
90% is well above what we need for it to be very, very useful.
if you vaccinated the whole population, an R of 1.3 becomes an R of 0.13
If R is 1.3, due to mitigation measures, you don't really need a 90% effective vaccine. A cheaper, easier to deploy vaccine that is less effective might still be the best route to take. Obviously we will likely use the first vaccine available, but I suspect we will switch over time to whatever vaccine allows the easiest deployment.
The United Kingdom has an agreement to buy 30 million doses of Pfizer vaccine – including 10 million due by the end of the year. 10 million doses is enough to vaccinate 5 million people, as they require two jabs three weeks apart. Although the vaccine has not yet been approved by regulators, Pfizer expects it will be soon.
The vaccine, which has been tested on 43,500 people in six countries, has seen no safety concerns raised in its trials. The Prime Minister is holding a press conference at 5pm this evening, likely addressing the vaccine news…
The preliminary order of vaccine distribution in the UK was published by the Health Department in September:
older adults’ resident in a care home and care home workers all those 80 years of age and over and health and social care workers all those 75 years of age and over all those 70 years of age and over all those 65 years of age and over high-risk adults under 65 years of age moderate-risk adults under 65 years of age all those 60 years of age and over all those 55 years of age and over all those 50 years of age and over rest of the population (priority to be determined)
The idea that Pfizer would put out a release like this, first thing on a Monday morning, just as the markets open in the United States, without absolute certainty that they are right is for the birds.
Arizona + Nevada gets Biden to 270 outwith Pennsylvania and Georgia. Given republicans did well downballot in Az (Ex McSally) the legislature there is less likely to indulge any shenanigans in my opinion.
Great call by Fox/AP – I hope those who attacked them for the call will now recant.
Not sure why they necessarily should, it's a 20K margin so not exactly a crushing victory. They made it very early on and it's clear they wildly over-estimated Biden's margins.
Arizona + Nevada gets Biden to 270 outwith Pennsylvania and Georgia. Given republicans did well downballot in Az (Ex McSally) the legislature there is less likely to indulge any shenanigans in my opinion.
Great call by Fox/AP – I hope those who attacked them for the call will now recant.
True. Better though - and I know its a radical idea - to count the votes. Then announce the winner.
The idea that Pfizer would put out a release like this, first thing on a Monday morning, just as the markets open in the United States, without absolute certainty that they are right is for the birds.
The SEC would make them into shark bait if they have screwed this one up.
Arizona + Nevada gets Biden to 270 outwith Pennsylvania and Georgia. Given republicans did well downballot in Az (Ex McSally) the legislature there is less likely to indulge any shenanigans in my opinion.
Great call by Fox/AP – I hope those who attacked them for the call will now recant.
Not sure why they necessarily should, it's a 20K margin so not exactly a crushing victory. They made it very early on and it's clear they wildly over-estimated Biden's margins.
Fake news. Their calculation was simply that there wasn't enough juice in the tank for Trump to overtake Biden. They made no precise mention of the eventual winning margin – merely that they had 99.9% confidence it wouldn't be overcome.
They were right. And you were wrong.
(P.S. I have a bet on the GOP in AZ – so again they have lost me money).
90% is well above what we need for it to be very, very useful.
if you vaccinated the whole population, an R of 1.3 becomes an R of 0.13
If R is 1.3, due to mitigation measures, you don't really need a 90% effective vaccine. A cheaper, easier to deploy vaccine that is less effective might still be the best route to take. Obviously we will likely use the first vaccine available, but I suspect we will switch over time to whatever vaccine allows the easiest deployment.
You'd have to figure on a lot of the measures collapsing, in terms of compliance as the vaccine comes out.
if the natural R of this thing is 4.5, knocking it back to 0.45 would be useful....
Can we say with confidence that we can return to some sort of normality by next spring?
Sir John Bell: Yes. Yes. Yes.
That struck me as somewhat OTT! We’ve got a planet to inoculate.
It was striking, certainly. Not too familiar with SJB's normal mo but I guess he may have been overwhelmed by unfamiliar hope, like a lot of Twitter it would appear!
Ocado presumably now no longer worth more than Tesco, which even assuming increased and prolonged increases was pretty ridiculous on the face of it.
i think there will still be much more wfh for office workers even with an effective vaccine. we were in the office maybe 99% of the time pre-covid. that might be as little as 25% when things get back to the new normal.
@FrancisUrquhart how far down that list could you get with 10 million doses by the end of the year?
At the 2011 census
21% of the overall population of England and Wales was aged under 18 years, 29% was aged 18 to 39 years, 27% was aged 40 to 59 years, and 22% was aged 60 years and over
Assuming that profile is still roughly right, 14+ million over 60s....
Interestingly, I note that the results in NC showed a Democratic lead until about 80% had been counted, as Trump gained advantage over time. Counted in a different order?
One more relevant point. If I understand correctly, that 90% figure is based on the reduction in symptomatic cases, not overall infections (which may be asymptomatic) or cases with severe symptoms.
But a figure as high as 90% can only be good news.
And tested only on young people, I assume.
No. Three cohorts - ≥60 years; 50-59 years; 18-49 years.
I think they recently expanded it to under 18, too.
Interestingly, I note that the results in NC showed a Democratic lead until about 80% had been counted, as Trump gained advantage over time. Counted in a different order?
Far too much is being made of how difficult the Johnson , Biden relationship will be .
They agree on climate change , NATO, Iran . The disagreements over Brexit would be resolved if a trade deal is done . You don’t have to be best friends to work together .
As an aside in terms of the Supreme Court it will not intervene and simply hand states to Trump. There seems to be some bizarre thinking that it will throw out thousands of votes which is ludicrous .
Gaining a SC majority has been the Holy Grail for the Right for decades. A Wishfulfilling Jewel. Meanwhile they kept losing the popular vote. This attitude is the logical result of magical thinking.
The Johnson-Biden disagreements over Brexit would be resolved if a trade deal were done, ON THE SAME TERMS AS EU MEMBERSHIP, BETWEEN THE UK AND THE EU. They CANNOT be resolved by a trade deal between the UK and US.
Which is just as well because there will not be any trade deal between the UK and US, except as part of an EU-US deal. Biden simply hasn't got the time for such a diversion from his real challenges.
Is the solution similar to that of Murder on the Orient Express?
It's an interesting article - though I think it acquits the British electorate too easily. After all they voted both for Brexit and the 2017 Parliament.
Is the solution similar to that of Murder on the Orient Express?
Let's pretend it was a mysterious stranger and that none of us are to blame? Nope, it's blame everyone else while avoiding all responsibility, a fine British tradition.
Is the solution similar to that of Murder on the Orient Express?
It's an interesting article - though I think it acquits the British electorate too easily. After all they voted both for Brexit and the 2017 Parliament.
I blame Nick Clegg. If he'd agreed to a referendum in the Coalition parliament... 60%+ Remain vote, for sure.
Mr. Malmesbury, ha. It is ironic that Clegg had a three line whip abstention on Lisbon's referendum, argued for a referendum on In/Out, and would've, as you say, won it had it been held during the Coalition term.
Lots of stars aligned for things to play out as they did.
For that matter, a Lisbon referendum would've seen the sceptics win, without it being a full departure.
One more relevant point. If I understand correctly, that 90% figure is based on the reduction in symptomatic cases, not overall infections (which may be asymptomatic) or cases with severe symptoms.
But a figure as high as 90% can only be good news.
And tested only on young people, I assume.
No. Three cohorts - ≥60 years; 50-59 years; 18-49 years.
I think they recently expanded it to under 18, too.
Mr. Malmesbury, ha. It is ironic that Clegg had a three line whip abstention on Lisbon's referendum, argued for a referendum on In/Out, and would've, as you say, won it had it been held during the Coalition term.
Lots of stars aligned for things to play out as they did.
For that matter, a Lisbon referendum would've seen the sceptics win, without it being a full departure.
IIRC the LIbDems muttered some nonsense about how any vote would have to be full integration *and* the Euro in the event of a yes...
There's the first batch (10 million doses, 2 per patient) of Pfixer vaccine accounted for. Slightly surprised that "NHS clinical staff" not on the priority list....
Arizona + Nevada gets Biden to 270 outwith Pennsylvania and Georgia. Given republicans did well downballot in Az (Ex McSally) the legislature there is less likely to indulge any shenanigans in my opinion.
Great call by Fox/AP – I hope those who attacked them for the call will now recant.
True. Better though - and I know its a radical idea - to count the votes. Then announce the winner.
Fox were premature, no doubt about it. I wonder what games were going on.
So erm, dare I ask, when are we expecting AZ, GA and PA to finish their counts?
I know that GA will go to a recount, but presumably they need to, you know, finish their first count before they can do another one.
AZ’s Secretary of State said on Thursday she thought it would all be done by Friday. Then on Friday said she thought it would all be done by Sunday. They’re still going!
Realistically when can we expect them to give us the final count numbers? Still strikes me as insane that its dragging on this long, even if you excuse them for late arrivals/ballots requiring extra scrutiny/military and overseas etc etc.
I expect the final PA decision in the supreme court will be a severe rebuke to the PA S.C. for 'legislating from the bench' whilst acknowledging the final margin to not be in doubt either with or without the ballots.
So erm, dare I ask, when are we expecting AZ, GA and PA to finish their counts?
I know that GA will go to a recount, but presumably they need to, you know, finish their first count before they can do another one.
AZ’s Secretary of State said on Thursday she thought it would all be done by Friday. Then on Friday said she thought it would all be done by Sunday. They’re still going!
Realistically when can we expect them to give us the final count numbers? Still strikes me as insane that its dragging on this long, even if you excuse them for late arrivals/ballots requiring extra scrutiny/military and overseas etc etc.
Last time California didn't finish counting until the beginning of December.
Comments
I guess I could have put it in a better way: let's not count our chickens. Let's not assume we're weeks from returning to normal.
Who could have guessed?
The vaccine, which has been tested on 43,500 people in six countries, has seen no safety concerns raised in its trials. The Prime Minister is holding a press conference at 5pm this evening, likely addressing the vaccine news…
The preliminary order of vaccine distribution in the UK was published by the Health Department in September:
older adults’ resident in a care home and care home workers
all those 80 years of age and over and health and social care workers
all those 75 years of age and over
all those 70 years of age and over
all those 65 years of age and over
high-risk adults under 65 years of age
moderate-risk adults under 65 years of age
all those 60 years of age and over
all those 55 years of age and over
all those 50 years of age and over
rest of the population (priority to be determined)
https://order-order.com/2020/11/09/uk-has-ordered-10-million-pfizer-vaccines-by-year-end/
They were right. And you were wrong.
(P.S. I have a bet on the GOP in AZ – so again they have lost me money).
if the natural R of this thing is 4.5, knocking it back to 0.45 would be useful....
Not too familiar with SJB's normal mo but I guess he may have been overwhelmed by unfamiliar hope, like a lot of Twitter it would appear!
21% of the overall population of England and Wales was aged under 18 years, 29% was aged 18 to 39 years, 27% was aged 40 to 59 years, and 22% was aged 60 years and over
Assuming that profile is still roughly right, 14+ million over 60s....
Three cohorts - ≥60 years; 50-59 years; 18-49 years.
I think they recently expanded it to under 18, too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-iJU_7U0Fo&
https://twitter.com/FranceNews24/status/1325719368454594562?s=20
https://twitter.com/AllisonLHedges/status/1325792179634249733
https://twitter.com/AllisonLHedges/status/1325792179634249733 Postals counted first there
Which is just as well because there will not be any trade deal between the UK and US, except as part of an EU-US deal. Biden simply hasn't got the time for such a diversion from his real challenges.
Is the solution similar to that of Murder on the Orient Express?
Other pandemic irks include shops changing the layout. That's annoying normally, but with one way systems it's a bugger.
https://twitter.com/ViralRNA/status/1325786907561906178
Nope, it's blame everyone else while avoiding all responsibility, a fine British tradition.
https://www.pfizer.com/science/coronavirus
Lots of stars aligned for things to play out as they did.
For that matter, a Lisbon referendum would've seen the sceptics win, without it being a full departure.
https://twitter.com/bellacaledonia/status/1325792510803898368?s=20
https://twitter.com/LordRic52/status/1325777443253260288?s=20
And given the priority list is:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1325776285860245504?s=20
There's the first batch (10 million doses, 2 per patient) of Pfixer vaccine accounted for. Slightly surprised that "NHS clinical staff" not on the priority list....
I know that GA will go to a recount, but presumably they need to, you know, finish their first count before they can do another one.
AZ’s Secretary of State said on Thursday she thought it would all be done by Friday. Then on Friday said she thought it would all be done by Sunday. They’re still going!
Realistically when can we expect them to give us the final count numbers? Still strikes me as insane that its dragging on this long, even if you excuse them for late arrivals/ballots requiring extra scrutiny/military and overseas etc etc.