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If there had been an equal number of men and women voting then Trump would have won a second term –
If there had been an equal number of men and women voting then Trump would have won a second term – politicalbetting.com
Lots of analysis at the moment about the US election following the victory of Joe Biden and defeat of Donald Trump.
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Everyone knows that all splits now have to be 52:48.
The Democrats have never won a Presidential election this millennium without Joe Biden on the ticket...
https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html#
https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1325585619175809025?s=19
My instinct is Trump is trashing his own reputation at this stage - that a good proportion even of those who supported him are embarrassed by his behaviour on this one. My instinct is railing against the media and Democrats for lying about him, but not laying into US democracy as a whole, would've been the better approach purely tactically. Some of those who believe him will never vote again, and some who voted for him (e.g. for economic reasons), won't go with him on this. But I've been wrong on Trump before, and maybe 48% or so of the public love it.
And it matters even though he's on his way out as President. He does need to maintain his standing if he wants to make a comeback personally, or via a proxy, or to remain extremely influential in other ways, or to protect himself when the Feds come calling.
Now, he has ranted at Rupert and nobody will touch him with a bargepole and zero chance he can have another go (or his daughter) in 2024.
Remember as well, America has a funny way of forgiving people if they appear to do the humble apology e.g. Tiger Woods. Now lots of people obviously would never, but given 70 million would vote for him, still a huge market for him if he had just gone.
Also, nobody is going to defend him if twitter unperson him or they try to do him for some tax dodging etc. Again, if he gave up presidency and sounded reasonable, then twitter go after him in the future, it all looks hugely political.
As for men...
Can't be arsed to register, live long enough, learn to iron or to vote.
Typical.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020®ion=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc
And the automatic weapons natch.
We really are nowt like America. Hopefully long may we not be so.
Otherwise ethnic minority immigrants, particularly Asian, have a strong work ethic and support for lower taxes and social conservatism that makes them natural conservatives and there is no reason the right cannot win them, indeed Trump may have lost minority voters but did make inroads eg with Cuban Americans in Florida
If the wokeists don't become wakeists we'll be back to "white women vote according to their race not their gender" before long, as they are that far out of line.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/11/white-women-gop/576586/
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Until they do this, Biden's team are unable to get the transition process going within government agencies, and money can't be freed up to prepare for the transfer of power.
So long as around 20 million Republicans think he's great, then he has the Republican Party by the balls. You need to either worship at the Temple of Trump, or he will belittle you and support your opponent.
That's why so many Republicans - people who loathe and detest Trump - have still no come out against him. They know they need his voters.
The problem is that by pandering to that group, they increase the risk that in 2024 they'll manage to put up a truly dreadful candidate.
- How many 2016 Republicans actually deserted Trump in 2020 and if it was a thing, who were they and where?
- Or was voting pattern fairly static between 2016 and 2020, and the differences in outcome down mainly to new voters?
Also, registration was up more than the vote increased, by a fairly big margin. Does this mean that registration drives are not that effective in bringing in new voters, or did the first time registered voters vote in similar percentages as established registered voters?
Clearly means that once Joe completes his second term or dies, the Democrats are doomed.
The difference in numbers of men and women in the US ought to mean that the voting numbers aren’t far off 51:49 and when you allow for the much higher numbers of females among the elderly and more males among the 18-24s, the difference amongst those voting is roughly what you would expect it to be.
https://twitter.com/rgcooke/status/1325598436888961024
You can get 1/8 with Paddy Power on Donald Trump NOT conceding before Nov 13th. The concession has to be a televised broadcast in which he explicitly concedes.
Whilst the odds are slight this looks to me like extremely good value. If, like me, you think there's fat-all chance of Trump doing such a thing then you're getting a 12.5% return in the space of 5 days!
The most I'd expect at some time is a begrudging and curmudgeonly tweet. And it won't be before Friday.
- Presidential Election 2020
When will Donald Trump publicly concede?
For the purpose of this market a concession has to be a televised address
where Donald Trump explicitly concedes that Joe Biden has won the 2020 US Election. All dates are EST.
November 13th 2020 or later/Never 1/8
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54868729
https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1325485914492203011?s=20
And this more so
https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1325541927677288450?s=20
The republicans have only won the presidency without a Bush on the ticket once since 1973
The republicans have only won the presidency without a Bush or a Nixon on the ticket once since 1929.
The Exception in both cases was in 2016.
AOC on the case, and quite a point. It was grass roots organisers that got Biden over the line.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/08/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-ends-truce-by-warning-incompetent-democratic-party
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics-betting-2378961
F1: two specials up on Ladbrokes.
Perez is 1.91 to drive for Red Bull next year. I don't know if that's value or not.
Verstappen is 34 to win 100 or more races by 2030.
'by' sounds like it means before the start of the 2030 season. So that gives him nine seasons. In that time, he has to average 10-11 wins a year. Now, that's not impossible (Hamilton's probably been doing that of late) but he requires a clear car advantage. I'm not inclined to lock money up for a decade on that sort of basis. Inflation alone will eat away at the value over that timescale.
Edited extra bit: just checked, and he has 9 wins already. So it's a hair over 10 a season, assuming he doesn't win in one of the last few races this year.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/08/us-election-voters-polls
https://twitter.com/RaynerSkyNews/status/1325699743972995072
1. Biden won and Trump lost.
2. América remains quite divided but the new President is making all the right noises so far.
3. Good luck to him.
Trump, for all his many faults, has had to create his own coalition as have every leader before him in both parties. As AOC points out the disappearance of Obama's phenomenal electoral machine outwith the party was probably key to Clinton losing. Trump reached parts of the populace that many more moderate republicans will struggle to reach in the same way, the blue collar, non graduate whites who remind me strongly of the sort of voters who flipped the red wall constituencies here. Someone more establishment may have to look elsewhere for their winning coalition, not the same places as Trump found them.
I assume the key will be those who voted Biden for president but R for the senate.
But it's a curious bluff that emphasises one's weakness.
If the EU agree a deal making those clauses redundant then they can be removed as part of the deal.
If they don't then the clauses are necessary and it's up to the elected chamber to make the decision.
Is he going to resign?
The smart way to end this issue is for the EU to compromise and agree a deal, that makes all this go away. If they don't, the IMB is a safety net and more immediately required than whatever the President Elect or Veep Elect may think.
Biden is pretty much nailed on to get 306 i would have thought
If there isn't then looking after ourselves will be more important than what other leaders think. Especially when those leaders are prepared to do the same when it suits them to do so.
However the EU didn't throw us out, or even ask us to leave.It wanted, and AFAIK, wants us to stay. It was our idea to leave. So surely it's up to us to make things legal.
Unless the Senate gets to 50-50 + VP, I don't see how Biden can do very much.
What the IMB sets as a precedent is that the Government will claim to be able to legislate away those provisions, and yet merrily contain to enjoy the benefits of the deal as a whole.
The Govt's position seems to be that international treaties involve compromise - we give a little, you give a little - and once it's finished and signed we'll take a bit back thank you very much.
The MRP has now had more misses than hits. (although what a hit)
Even if Trump does concede before Friday, which is vanishingly unlikely, it won't be done by a full television confession. I mean concession.
Under the EU's own rules our obligations fall away two years after invoking Article 50. That was well over a year ago, we've extended our obligations repeatedly but they expire 31/12/20 now.
Now if the 'international order' wants an agreement it is for the EU and UK to agree a deal. If they do so the rest of the concerns about NI and the IMB vanish. But that entails both parties reaching sensible compromises. If the EU aren't prepared to compromise (as they pretended was the case a few weeks ago prior to Boris walking away then the EU rowing back on that) then there can't be a deal but let us hope that's not the case.
Don or Phil?
Though it was a bit of an unfair comparison by David as excluding Biden's best state and then comparing with the other 49 is not like-for-like. You should exclude Trump's best state too and see how the remaining 48 voted if you want a fair comparison and I suspect that would give Biden the edge.