Trump’s extraordinary on the day voting gamble – politicalbetting.com

System

Trump’s extraordinary on the day voting gamble – politicalbetting.com

Just about the whole world is aware by now of how Trump intends to declare that the election was rigged against him. He’s attached a special premium to those who vote on the day compared with those 94,006,161 Americans who have already cast their ballots either by voting in person or be using the mail.

Read the full story here

Richard_Tyndall

It ain't happening. If this is what Trump is relying on then he is toast. (And I think he is).

FrancisUrquhart

Dickheads....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8902777/Eager-shoppers-strip-supermarket-shelves-toilet-roll-pasta-lockdown-2-0-looms.html

Sandpit

Third, like the rate of American democracy.

Philip_Thompson

Be hilarious if on the day voting struggles more with queues.

Though I imagine for some entirely remarkable reason predominantly white areas won't struggle with queues as much.

Philip_Thompson

FrancisUrquhart said:

Dickheads....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8902777/Eager-shoppers-strip-supermarket-shelves-toilet-roll-pasta-lockdown-2-0-looms.html

They clearly need loo roll as they're full of ...

Richard_Tyndall

FrancisUrquhart said:

Dickheads....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8902777/Eager-shoppers-strip-supermarket-shelves-toilet-roll-pasta-lockdown-2-0-looms.html

Not in any way at all excusing the dickheads, but as an aside, why the hell didn't the Supermarkets just impose a limit for a week or so, until the morons saw there would be no shortage. It should have been obvious that the terminally bewildered mob would react like this again.

FrancisUrquhart

Another day, another Biden gaffe...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8903785/Biden-tells-Philadelphia-rally-hes-wearing-Eagles-jacket-sporting-Delaware-Blue-Hens-logo.html

TOPPING

Richard_Tyndall said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Dickheads....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8902777/Eager-shoppers-strip-supermarket-shelves-toilet-roll-pasta-lockdown-2-0-looms.html

Not in any way at all excusing the dickheads, but as an aside, why the hell didn't the Supermarkets just impose a limit for a week or so, until the morons saw there would be no shortage. It should have been obvious that the terminally bewildered mob would react like this again.

It's just Project Fear that the supermarket shelves could be stripped bare because of...

MarqueeMark

FrancisUrquhart said:

Dickheads....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8902777/Eager-shoppers-strip-supermarket-shelves-toilet-roll-pasta-lockdown-2-0-looms.html

Interesting how they needed Boris to fire the starting pistol to start the panic buying. I went to Sainsbury's at 8.30 am on Saturday - by which point it was clear that Lockdown 2.0 was obviously on the way - and yet the place was empty. I could have had all their bog rolls belong me.

swing_voter

if the Republicans require a GOTV on the day, I hope they prayed for good weather.....

felix

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Dickheads....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8902777/Eager-shoppers-strip-supermarket-shelves-toilet-roll-pasta-lockdown-2-0-looms.html

Not in any way at all excusing the dickheads, but as an aside, why the hell didn't the Supermarkets just impose a limit for a week or so, until the morons saw there would be no shortage. It should have been obvious that the terminally bewildered mob would react like this again.

It's just Project Fear that the supermarket shelves could be stripped bare because of...

I suspect it was the irresponsible UK media again stirring up the s**t - creating the need...

Theuniondivvie

FrancisUrquhart said:

Dickheads....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8902777/Eager-shoppers-strip-supermarket-shelves-toilet-roll-pasta-lockdown-2-0-looms.html

UK isn't Sweden, example 482

IanB2

If a load of gun toting guys in pickup trucks turned up at my door to knock me up, I guess I'd turn out to vote.

And be grateful it's a secret ballot.

nichomar

Depp wins

FrancisUrquhart

MarqueeMark said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Dickheads....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8902777/Eager-shoppers-strip-supermarket-shelves-toilet-roll-pasta-lockdown-2-0-looms.html

Interesting how they needed Boris to fire the starting pistol to start the panic buying. I went to Sainsbury's at 8.30 am on Saturday - by which point it was clear that Lockdown 2.0 was obviously on the way - and yet the place was empty. I could have had all their bog rolls belong me.

Because they were all too busy getting down the pub for a weekend on the lash.

Floater

Theuniondivvie said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Dickheads....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8902777/Eager-shoppers-strip-supermarket-shelves-toilet-roll-pasta-lockdown-2-0-looms.html

UK isn't Sweden, example 482

Son just texted me to say his local ASDA stripped clean of bottled water, frozen meat and toilet paper

SirNorfolkPassmore

The sinister aspect of Trump's gamble is the extent to which he's aiming less to win and more to "win on the night". Postal vote returns take longer to come in and will heavily favour Biden. But Trump's story will be that the election is being stolen if important states are red on the night but move to blue as postal votes are counted. That narrative could, of course, get very dangerous indeed.

Sandpit

nichomar said:

Depp wins

Source?

The Sun seem to think they won, one of those split decisions?
https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1323204099815460874

MarqueeMark

FrancisUrquhart said:

MarqueeMark said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Dickheads....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8902777/Eager-shoppers-strip-supermarket-shelves-toilet-roll-pasta-lockdown-2-0-looms.html

Interesting how they needed Boris to fire the starting pistol to start the panic buying. I went to Sainsbury's at 8.30 am on Saturday - by which point it was clear that Lockdown 2.0 was obviously on the way - and yet the place was empty. I could have had all their bog rolls belong me.

Because they were all too busy getting down the pub for a weekend on the lash.

8.30 am is keen, even for the 'Spoons.....

Floater

I think some of you might find this Covid update interesting

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKI78fzBGD0

DecrepiterJohnL

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Dickheads....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8902777/Eager-shoppers-strip-supermarket-shelves-toilet-roll-pasta-lockdown-2-0-looms.html

Not in any way at all excusing the dickheads, but as an aside, why the hell didn't the Supermarkets just impose a limit for a week or so, until the morons saw there would be no shortage. It should have been obvious that the terminally bewildered mob would react like this again.

It's just Project Fear that the supermarket shelves could be stripped bare because of...

While Brexit could easily lead to shortages of imported goods, it is harder to see why Covid will. But in defence of "dickheads" that is not the question. If everyone else is panic-buying spaghetti hoops then it is only sensible for a customer who is not a dickhead to add a couple of tins to their own trolley while there are any left on the shelves. The tragedy of the commons does not involve any individual acting irrationally.

BluestBlue

nichomar said:

Depp wins

And Dewey defeats Truman?

nichomar

nichomar said:

Depp wins

No he didn’t

Richard_Nabavi

swing_voter said:

if the Republicans require a GOTV on the day, I hope they prayed for good weather.....

The forecast looks benign over almost all of the US tomorrow.

DecrepiterJohnL

FrancisUrquhart said:

Another day, another Biden gaffe...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8903785/Biden-tells-Philadelphia-rally-hes-wearing-Eagles-jacket-sporting-Delaware-Blue-Hens-logo.html

Fatal for a politician. David Cameron forgot whether he supported West Ham or Aston Villa and now he is a nowhere man.

Richard_Nabavi

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323205067726532608

nichomar

Sandpit said:

nichomar said:

Depp wins

Source?

The Sun seem to think they won, one of those split decisions?
https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1323204099815460874

Was going on the !images from the news with sound off, I’d make a good news reporter

OldKingCole

Guardian says that Sun's won vs Depp.

Although does this mean that?
'The court refused to award the Pirates of the Caribbean star compensation for damage to his reputation at the end of one of the most widely followed libel trials of the century.'

Couple of minutes later; yes it does 'what published substantially true' or words to that effect.

isam

https://twitter.com/clarkemicah/status/1323205875490840578?s=21

RobD

nichomar said:

Sandpit said:

nichomar said:

Depp wins

Source?

The Sun seem to think they won, one of those split decisions?
https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1323204099815460874

Was going on the !images from the news with sound off, I’d make a good news reporter

None of that tomorrow, please.

RobD

isam said:

https://twitter.com/clarkemicah/status/1323205875490840578?s=21

He just makes it too easy.

https://twitter.com/clarkemicah/status/1258671902329114624

FrancisUrquhart

DecrepiterJohnL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Another day, another Biden gaffe...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8903785/Biden-tells-Philadelphia-rally-hes-wearing-Eagles-jacket-sporting-Delaware-Blue-Hens-logo.html

Fatal for a politician. David Cameron forgot whether he supported West Ham or Aston Villa and now he is a nowhere man.

It won't make any difference, because he is up against somebody who can't get through a sentence without lying, but pointing out the man is a gaffe machine on par with George Bush Jnr and a poor candidate.

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1323147567920750593?s=20

FrancisUrquhart

BBC News - Covid: Ryanair will not offer refunds for November flights
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54776678

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1323109977423269891?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1323127720176422913?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1323117345972359168?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1323104716730126337?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1323073360528613376?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1323073174834208769?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1323072442110193664?s=20

Sandpit

OldKingCole said:

Guardian says that Sun's won vs Depp.

Although does this mean that?
'The court refused to award the Pirates of the Caribbean star compensation for damage to his reputation at the end of one of the most widely followed libel trials of the century.'

I think the decision over costs will be more significant than the decision over damages.

(Depp is apparently £5m in the hole on legal fees).

BluestBlue

nichomar said:

Sandpit said:

nichomar said:

Depp wins

Source?

The Sun seem to think they won, one of those split decisions?
https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1323204099815460874

Was going on the !images from the news with sound off, I’d make a good news reporter

Well, at least the case allows us to finally draw some conclusions about the existence of Heard immunity...

felix

nichomar said:

nichomar said:

Depp wins

No he didn’t

Are you arguing with yourself now?

FrancisUrquhart

Sandpit said:

OldKingCole said:

Guardian says that Sun's won vs Depp.

Although does this mean that?
'The court refused to award the Pirates of the Caribbean star compensation for damage to his reputation at the end of one of the most widely followed libel trials of the century.'

I think the decision over costs will be more significant than the decision over damages.

(Depp is apparently £5m in the hole on legal fees).

Yet another pirates of the carribean movie it is then.....

Sunil_Prasannan

OldKingCole said:

Guardian says that Sun's won vs Depp.

Although does this mean that?
'The court refused to award the Pirates of the Caribbean star compensation for damage to his reputation at the end of one of the most widely followed libel trials of the century.'

Couple of minutes later; yes it does 'what published substantially true' or words to that effect.

Will @Philip_Thompson change his avatar?

TheScreamingEagles

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

OldKingCole said:

Guardian says that Sun's won vs Depp.

Although does this mean that?
'The court refused to award the Pirates of the Caribbean star compensation for damage to his reputation at the end of one of the most widely followed libel trials of the century.'

I think the decision over costs will be more significant than the decision over damages.

(Depp is apparently £5m in the hole on legal fees).

Yet another pirates of the carribean movie it is then.....

Surely he's going to become an unperson like Kevin Spacey?

dixiedean

FrancisUrquhart said:

BBC News - Covid: Ryanair will not offer refunds for November flights
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54776678

Not quite the bargain Mr Simon Calder promised.

Philip_Thompson

Sunil_Prasannan said:

OldKingCole said:

Guardian says that Sun's won vs Depp.

Although does this mean that?
'The court refused to award the Pirates of the Caribbean star compensation for damage to his reputation at the end of one of the most widely followed libel trials of the century.'

Couple of minutes later; yes it does 'what published substantially true' or words to that effect.

Will @Philip_Thompson change his avatar?

Why would I do that? ☠️

rkrkrk

At a minimum, a not insubstantial number of voters will be sick on election day.

If the US has c. 500k confirmed cases/week, that's a decent number who shouldn't be voting in person.
Plus their contacts/family who are supposed to be isolating...

Trump won PA by about 45,000 votes in 2016. PA has about 2k new cases/day.

Sunil_Prasannan

Philip_Thompson said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

OldKingCole said:

Guardian says that Sun's won vs Depp.

Although does this mean that?
'The court refused to award the Pirates of the Caribbean star compensation for damage to his reputation at the end of one of the most widely followed libel trials of the century.'

Couple of minutes later; yes it does 'what published substantially true' or words to that effect.

Will @Philip_Thompson change his avatar?

Why would I do that? ☠️

You'd be disinclined to acquiesce to my request?

Sandpit

Truth is a defence against libel action, so says the judge to the wife-beater.

https://twitter.com/JoshuaRozenberg/status/1323206605647847424

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

OldKingCole said:

Guardian says that Sun's won vs Depp.

Although does this mean that?
'The court refused to award the Pirates of the Caribbean star compensation for damage to his reputation at the end of one of the most widely followed libel trials of the century.'

I think the decision over costs will be more significant than the decision over damages.

(Depp is apparently £5m in the hole on legal fees).

Yet another pirates of the carribean movie it is then.....

Surely he's going to become an unperson like Kevin Spacey?

If Hollywood unpersoned all their biggest stars shown to have got up to no good, there would be no movies e.g. Mark Wahlberg blinded somebody in a racist attack.

felix

FrancisUrquhart said:

BBC News - Covid: Ryanair will not offer refunds for November flights
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54776678

I detest Ryanair for many reasons but if people are tsupid and irresponsible enough to still want to fly for naything other than essential reasons I have zero sympathy. We are where we are in no small degree because of the mad summer holiday caper.

Carnyx

O/T but interesting news - especially for those who think there will be no border between Scotland and NI. The seed potato trade is VERY important (I know folk who live by it).

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/02/chips-are-down-brexit-uncertainty-causing-scottish-potato-crisis

SandraMc

Sandpit said:

OldKingCole said:

Guardian says that Sun's won vs Depp.

Although does this mean that?
'The court refused to award the Pirates of the Caribbean star compensation for damage to his reputation at the end of one of the most widely followed libel trials of the century.'

I think the decision over costs will be more significant than the decision over damages.

(Depp is apparently £5m in the hole on legal fees).

I feel that Johnny Depp and Amber are the Thomas and Jane Carlyle of our days in that by marrying each other they made two people unhappy rather than four.

SirNorfolkPassmore

Sandpit said:

OldKingCole said:

Guardian says that Sun's won vs Depp.

Although does this mean that?
'The court refused to award the Pirates of the Caribbean star compensation for damage to his reputation at the end of one of the most widely followed libel trials of the century.'

I think the decision over costs will be more significant than the decision over damages.

(Depp is apparently £5m in the hole on legal fees).

He's surely totally f***ed on costs. The judgment is so damning that he's bound to be lumbered with the vast bulk of the Sun's costs - it's an emphatic win for them and they can't be criticised or penalised for defending their article robustly.

IanB2

Sandpit said:

OldKingCole said:

Guardian says that Sun's won vs Depp.

Although does this mean that?
'The court refused to award the Pirates of the Caribbean star compensation for damage to his reputation at the end of one of the most widely followed libel trials of the century.'

I think the decision over costs will be more significant than the decision over damages.

(Depp is apparently £5m in the hole on legal fees).

The Guardian suggests an appeal is likely.

The pre-verdict write up also suggests there was a lot of evidence presented in court. It isn't clear why downthread the expectation was that Depp might win?

TOPPING

felix said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Dickheads....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8902777/Eager-shoppers-strip-supermarket-shelves-toilet-roll-pasta-lockdown-2-0-looms.html

Not in any way at all excusing the dickheads, but as an aside, why the hell didn't the Supermarkets just impose a limit for a week or so, until the morons saw there would be no shortage. It should have been obvious that the terminally bewildered mob would react like this again.

It's just Project Fear that the supermarket shelves could be stripped bare because of...

I suspect it was the irresponsible UK media again stirring up the s**t - creating the need...

Those pesky media

FrancisUrquhart

felix said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BBC News - Covid: Ryanair will not offer refunds for November flights
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54776678

I detest Ryanair for many reasons but if people are tsupid and irresponsible enough to still want to fly for naything other than essential reasons I have zero sympathy. We are where we are in no small degree because of the mad summer holiday caper.

The idiots will be screaming down the camera shortly, blaming Boris, and the again when lockdown is extended and their Christmas break is threatened.

nichomar

IanB2 said:

Sandpit said:

OldKingCole said:

Guardian says that Sun's won vs Depp.

Although does this mean that?
'The court refused to award the Pirates of the Caribbean star compensation for damage to his reputation at the end of one of the most widely followed libel trials of the century.'

I think the decision over costs will be more significant than the decision over damages.

(Depp is apparently £5m in the hole on legal fees).

The Guardian suggests an appeal is likely.

The pre-verdict write up also suggests there was a lot of evidence presented in court. It isn't clear why downthread the expectation was that Depp might win?

My mistake

IanB2

rkrkrk said:

At a minimum, a not insubstantial number of voters will be sick on election day.

If the US has c. 500k confirmed cases/week, that's a decent number who shouldn't be voting in person.
Plus their contacts/family who are supposed to be isolating...

Trump won PA by about 45,000 votes in 2016. PA has about 2k new cases/day.

Thanksgiving is looming, where pretty much every infected person would expect to travel across the US for a family gathering.

Sunil_Prasannan

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

OldKingCole said:

Guardian says that Sun's won vs Depp.

Although does this mean that?
'The court refused to award the Pirates of the Caribbean star compensation for damage to his reputation at the end of one of the most widely followed libel trials of the century.'

I think the decision over costs will be more significant than the decision over damages.

(Depp is apparently £5m in the hole on legal fees).

Yet another pirates of the carribean movie it is then.....

"So, can you sail under the command of a pirate wife-beater, or can you not?"

DeClare

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

The sinister aspect of Trump's gamble is the extent to which he's aiming less to win and more to "win on the night". Postal vote returns take longer to come in and will heavily favour Biden. But Trump's story will be that the election is being stolen if important states are red on the night but move to blue as postal votes are counted. That narrative could, of course, get very dangerous indeed.

Why don't they have the same rules as we do where they have to delivered by the postal service on election day at the latest to count and any arriving after are shredded and not even opened?

Then they can start counting all the postal votes that arrived on time as soon as the polls close, the results for each precinct should then only be announced once all valid postal and in-person votes have been counted.

rkrkrk

Richard_Nabavi said:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323205067726532608

Biden +6 in FL and +9 in PA look very positive for him.
Two quite different states that Trump must win well outside MoE.
Admittedly Morning Consult is only rated B/C by 538 but encouraging...

FrancisUrquhart

I notice Greece covid cases have gone up 5x in just 10 days. That summer season is looking very ill judged.

Sandpit

dixiedean said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BBC News - Covid: Ryanair will not offer refunds for November flights
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54776678

Not quite the bargain Mr Simon Calder promised.

He deserves a special arsehole award, in a year that's been very much full of arseholes in the media.

nichomar

rkrkrk said:

At a minimum, a not insubstantial number of voters will be sick on election day.

If the US has c. 500k confirmed cases/week, that's a decent number who shouldn't be voting in person.
Plus their contacts/family who are supposed to be isolating...

Trump won PA by about 45,000 votes in 2016. PA has about 2k new cases/day.

They won’t let them bother them, it’s no worse than the flu

TheScreamingEagles

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

OldKingCole said:

Guardian says that Sun's won vs Depp.

Although does this mean that?
'The court refused to award the Pirates of the Caribbean star compensation for damage to his reputation at the end of one of the most widely followed libel trials of the century.'

I think the decision over costs will be more significant than the decision over damages.

(Depp is apparently £5m in the hole on legal fees).

Yet another pirates of the carribean movie it is then.....

Surely he's going to become an unperson like Kevin Spacey?

If Hollywood unpersoned all their biggest stars shown to have got up to no good, there would be no movies e.g. Mark Wahlberg blinded somebody in a racist attack.

True.

TheScreamingEagles

Given J.K. Rowling's feminist credentials she'll be demanding Warner Bros. cast a new Gellert Grindelwald in Fantastic Beasts films?

JACK_W

I've come across the ASI/Polly projection for the POTUS. Not too sure what PBers think but apparently they called BREXIT, the 2019 BE and Canadian election correctly.

Their projection is Biden +10 with a 357/181 EC win. Of the battleground states they call :

OH - Trump 50/50 .. FL - Biden 51/49 .. GA - Biden 51/49 .. NC - Biden 51/49 .. TX- Trump 50/50 .. PA - Biden 52/48 .. MI - Biden 55/45 .. WI - 55/45 .. IA -Trump 51/49 .. AZ - Biden 52/48 .. NV - Biden 54/46

Excepting Florida that I have for Trump by 0.5 this accords with my map.

https://advancedsymbolics.com/us-election-2/

TheScreamingEagles

Bugger.

https://twitter.com/NorwichChloe/status/1323204527030489088

Malmesbury

We seem to be a thousand years away from the time when Bush II's daughters left a kind letter to Obama's daughters after Obama won....

Philip_Thompson

In a year full of surprises I'm not sure what's more shocking ... That a virus could sweep the globe leading to lockdowns ... Or that The Sun told the truth on something?

2020 just keeps finding a way to surprise.

NickyBreakspear

The full decision in Depp v News Group Newpapers

https://www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWHC/QB/2020/2911.html

Malmesbury

DecrepiterJohnL said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Dickheads....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8902777/Eager-shoppers-strip-supermarket-shelves-toilet-roll-pasta-lockdown-2-0-looms.html

Not in any way at all excusing the dickheads, but as an aside, why the hell didn't the Supermarkets just impose a limit for a week or so, until the morons saw there would be no shortage. It should have been obvious that the terminally bewildered mob would react like this again.

It's just Project Fear that the supermarket shelves could be stripped bare because of...

While Brexit could easily lead to shortages of imported goods, it is harder to see why Covid will. But in defence of "dickheads" that is not the question. If everyone else is panic-buying spaghetti hoops then it is only sensible for a customer who is not a dickhead to add a couple of tins to their own trolley while there are any left on the shelves. The tragedy of the commons does not involve any individual acting irrationally.

Good old Game Theory.... If everyone else defects etc

Sandpit

For those who like reading long and technical legal judgments:
https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Depp_V_News_Group_Newspapers_Ltd_judgment.pdf

FrancisUrquhart

Malmesbury said:

We seem to be a thousand years away from the time when Bush II's daughters left a kind letter to Obama's daughters after Obama won....

Where as Trump will probably leave a big poo in the Oval Office desk drawer.

Cyclefree

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Sandpit said:

OldKingCole said:

Guardian says that Sun's won vs Depp.

Although does this mean that?
'The court refused to award the Pirates of the Caribbean star compensation for damage to his reputation at the end of one of the most widely followed libel trials of the century.'

I think the decision over costs will be more significant than the decision over damages.

(Depp is apparently £5m in the hole on legal fees).

He's surely totally f***ed on costs. The judgment is so damning that he's bound to be lumbered with the vast bulk of the Sun's costs - it's an emphatic win for them and they can't be criticised or penalised for defending their article robustly.

Sasha Wass 1: Kweku Adoboli, Rolf Harris, Johnny Depp: 0

Sasha Wass QC was the prosecuting counsel in the first 2 cases and counsel for the Sun in the Depp case.

TOPPING

DecrepiterJohnL said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Dickheads....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8902777/Eager-shoppers-strip-supermarket-shelves-toilet-roll-pasta-lockdown-2-0-looms.html

Not in any way at all excusing the dickheads, but as an aside, why the hell didn't the Supermarkets just impose a limit for a week or so, until the morons saw there would be no shortage. It should have been obvious that the terminally bewildered mob would react like this again.

It's just Project Fear that the supermarket shelves could be stripped bare because of...

While Brexit could easily lead to shortages of imported goods, it is harder to see why Covid will. But in defence of "dickheads" that is not the question. If everyone else is panic-buying spaghetti hoops then it is only sensible for a customer who is not a dickhead to add a couple of tins to their own trolley while there are any left on the shelves. The tragedy of the commons does not involve any individual acting irrationally.

We have broken the back of any dickhead saying that Brexit-related bare shelves is "Project Fear".

theoldpolitics

Is the gamble not just that Democrats will be disproportionately deterred from voting because they are taking the virus seriously, whereas Trumpers mainly think it is a hoax and will be out to vote, loud and unmasked?

theoldpolitics

theoldpolitics said:

Is the gamble not just that Democrats will be disproportionately deterred from voting because they are taking the virus seriously, whereas Trumpers mainly think it is a hoax and will be out to vote, loud and unmasked?

And that postal and early votes are easier to get thrown in the bin.

Mal557

JACK_W said:

I've come across the ASI/Polly projection for the POTUS. Not too sure what PBers think but apparently they called BREXIT, the 2019 BE and Canadian election correctly.

Their projection is Biden +10 with a 357/181 EC win. Of the battleground states they call :

OH - Trump 50/50 .. FL - Biden 51/49 .. GA - Biden 51/49 .. NC - Biden 51/49 .. TX- Trump 50/50 .. PA - Biden 52/48 .. MI - Biden 55/45 .. WI - 55/45 .. IA -Trump 51/49 .. AZ - Biden 52/48 .. NV - Biden 54/46

Excepting Florida that I have for Trump by 0.5 this accords with my map.

https://advancedsymbolics.com/us-election-2/

I agree about FL and I think Trump will hang on in GA too, just, the others look about right, though I think some of the margins will be closer, especially, NV, MI, and WI. So for me a Biden win but by a lot less EVs

FrancisUrquhart

It mad that Taiwan has been excluded from official WHO updates, they have used spies and the twitter machine to keep abreast with the pandemic.

TheScreamingEagles

A pollster tweets.

https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1323187340307673089

Mal557

nichomar said:

rkrkrk said:

At a minimum, a not insubstantial number of voters will be sick on election day.

If the US has c. 500k confirmed cases/week, that's a decent number who shouldn't be voting in person.
Plus their contacts/family who are supposed to be isolating...

Trump won PA by about 45,000 votes in 2016. PA has about 2k new cases/day.

They won’t let them bother them, it’s no worse than the flu

Knowing the fanaticism of many Trump voters, I expect some with Covid symptoms were at his rallies, so I doubt a trip to the polling station will deter them.

Philip_Thompson

theoldpolitics said:

Is the gamble not just that Democrats will be disproportionately deterred from voting because they are taking the virus seriously, whereas Trumpers mainly think it is a hoax and will be out to vote, loud and unmasked?

Harder to work if the Democrats votes are already in the ballot box.

A vote already cast is worth more than a vote expected to be cast.

Sandpit

FrancisUrquhart said:

It mad that Taiwan has been excluded from official WHO updates, they have used spies and the twitter machine to keep abreast with the pandemic.

Where?

Roger

The Dems need to employ a bunch of people to stand in line at the voting stations and get them to cough continuously.

FrancisUrquhart

Roger said:

The Dems need to employ a bunch of people to stand in line at the voting stations and get them to cough continuously.

And scare off their own voters? Genius plan....

Roger

TOPPING said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Dickheads....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8902777/Eager-shoppers-strip-supermarket-shelves-toilet-roll-pasta-lockdown-2-0-looms.html

Not in any way at all excusing the dickheads, but as an aside, why the hell didn't the Supermarkets just impose a limit for a week or so, until the morons saw there would be no shortage. It should have been obvious that the terminally bewildered mob would react like this again.

It's just Project Fear that the supermarket shelves could be stripped bare because of...

While Brexit could easily lead to shortages of imported goods, it is harder to see why Covid will. But in defence of "dickheads" that is not the question. If everyone else is panic-buying spaghetti hoops then it is only sensible for a customer who is not a dickhead to add a couple of tins to their own trolley while there are any left on the shelves. The tragedy of the commons does not involve any individual acting irrationally.

We have broken the back of any dickhead saying that Brexit-related bare shelves is "Project Fear".

Do you know what kind of people we're dealing with here?

SirNorfolkPassmore

Malmesbury said:

We seem to be a thousand years away from the time when Bush II's daughters left a kind letter to Obama's daughters after Obama won....

Dubya was a dire President in many ways, including on the Middle East, environment, New Orleans response, and preparedness for economic crash. But the more one hears about him, the more one has to conclude that on a purely personal level he seems to be an extremely decent, generous man.

RobD

Roger said:

The Dems need to employ a bunch of people to stand in line at the voting stations and get them to cough continuously.

I see that intimidation is one of those irregular verbs.

Mal557

rkrkrk said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323205067726532608

Biden +6 in FL and +9 in PA look very positive for him.
Two quite different states that Trump must win well outside MoE.
Admittedly Morning Consult is only rated B/C by 538 but encouraging...

Both those states you mention look too high. I think HYUFD posted some polls earlier (not just Trafalgars) from mid rated posters with much closer margins than that. But the trend does seem to suggest overall FL is very close and PA is fairly safe for Biden.

Theuniondivvie

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

OldKingCole said:

Guardian says that Sun's won vs Depp.

Although does this mean that?
'The court refused to award the Pirates of the Caribbean star compensation for damage to his reputation at the end of one of the most widely followed libel trials of the century.'

I think the decision over costs will be more significant than the decision over damages.

(Depp is apparently £5m in the hole on legal fees).

Yet another pirates of the carribean movie it is then.....

Worse, a shitload of these terrible Dior Sauvage ads.

dixiedean

TheScreamingEagles said:

A pollster tweets.

https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1323187340307673089

The poll? Or the Daily Express in general?

Mal557

dixiedean said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

A pollster tweets.

https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1323187340307673089

The poll? Or the Daily Express in general?

I'd have been much more shocked if DE readers had come up with any other result.

Gallowgate

Sandpit said:

For those who like reading long and technical legal judgments:
https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Depp_V_News_Group_Newspapers_Ltd_judgment.pdf

I'll put that in the "nope" pile. The very best judgments are a maximum of 10 pages long!

eristdoof

DeClare said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

The sinister aspect of Trump's gamble is the extent to which he's aiming less to win and more to "win on the night". Postal vote returns take longer to come in and will heavily favour Biden. But Trump's story will be that the election is being stolen if important states are red on the night but move to blue as postal votes are counted. That narrative could, of course, get very dangerous indeed.

Why don't they have the same rules as we do where they have to delivered by the postal service on election day at the latest to count and any arriving after are shredded and not even opened?

Then they can start counting all the postal votes that arrived on time as soon as the polls close, the results for each precinct should then only be announced once all valid postal and in-person votes have been counted.

Because every single state has different rules on this. Some do, most don't.

DecrepiterJohnL

.

Cyclefree said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Sandpit said:

OldKingCole said:

Guardian says that Sun's won vs Depp.

Although does this mean that?
'The court refused to award the Pirates of the Caribbean star compensation for damage to his reputation at the end of one of the most widely followed libel trials of the century.'

I think the decision over costs will be more significant than the decision over damages.

(Depp is apparently £5m in the hole on legal fees).

He's surely totally f***ed on costs. The judgment is so damning that he's bound to be lumbered with the vast bulk of the Sun's costs - it's an emphatic win for them and they can't be criticised or penalised for defending their article robustly.

Sasha Wass 1: Kweku Adoboli, Rolf Harris, Johnny Depp: 0

Sasha Wass QC was the prosecuting counsel in the first 2 cases and counsel for the Sun in the Depp case.

Another Cambridge Liverpool educated lawyer.

Malmesbury

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Malmesbury said:

We seem to be a thousand years away from the time when Bush II's daughters left a kind letter to Obama's daughters after Obama won....

Dubya was a dire President in many ways, including on the Middle East, environment, New Orleans response, and preparedness for economic crash. But the more one hears about him, the more one has to conclude that on a purely personal level he seems to be an extremely decent, generous man.

And people thought he was the worst possible president.

The difference between an optimist and a pessimist.....

There could easily be worse than Trump. Bad as he is.

TheScreamingEagles

dixiedean said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

A pollster tweets.

https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1323187340307673089

The poll? Or the Daily Express in general?

Both.

DeClare

Malmesbury said:

We seem to be a thousand years away from the time when Bush II's daughters left a kind letter to Obama's daughters after Obama won....

When Jimmy Carter won in 1976 the first thing Gerald and Betty Ford did was to invite the Carter family round to dinner and give them a tour of the White House, good manners seem to be lost there now.

What's the betting Trump refuses to attend the inauguration? or if he does he'll probably start heckling. Incidentally I wonder if Biden will invite Neil Kinnock.

OldKingCole

dixiedean said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

A pollster tweets.

https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1323187340307673089

The poll? Or the Daily Express in general?

Did they back Dewey? Can't remember.

Philip_Thompson

Malmesbury said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Malmesbury said:

We seem to be a thousand years away from the time when Bush II's daughters left a kind letter to Obama's daughters after Obama won....

Dubya was a dire President in many ways, including on the Middle East, environment, New Orleans response, and preparedness for economic crash. But the more one hears about him, the more one has to conclude that on a purely personal level he seems to be an extremely decent, generous man.

And people thought he was the worst possible president.

The difference between an optimist and a pessimist.....

There could easily be worse than Trump. Bad as he is.

Trump isn't even the worst President the USA has had. He's just an orange imitation of Andrew Jackson.

SirNorfolkPassmore

Gallowgate said:

Sandpit said:

For those who like reading long and technical legal judgments:
https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Depp_V_News_Group_Newspapers_Ltd_judgment.pdf

I'll put that in the "nope" pile. The very best judgments are a maximum of 10 pages long!

That's rather unfair to the judge in this case. He's not determining some very narrow point of law which can be elegantly dispatched - he's a trial judge in a case which heard a LOT of contradictory evidence, and has to exhaustively go through and say whose evidence he accepts, whose he doesn't (and why), and which specific allegations are proven to the civil standard and which aren't. He'd be instantly and successfully appealed if he said "Well, some of the allegations must be true and, given there's no smoke without fire, I find for the Sun".