CBS has Trump winning 279 to 259 if there is a surge of Trump voters on the day, Biden wins 375 to 163 if early voters dominate and otherwise it is Biden 279 and Trump 163 and 96 toss ups
I like how you have buried the better Biden news behind a Trump victory.
I see from that link in the Trump surge he wins PA but not WI or MI to squeak home. This is the only way I see him winning,. Technically he has other paths but realistically he needs to hold AZ and PA (both unlikely but possible) and then all the other states from 2016 bar MI and WI. A tough ask but to me this is the only way he wins
Both Biden and Trump will be in Pennsylvania today, Trump is holding a rally at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton airport and Biden is holding an event in Pittsburgh with Lady Gaga emphasising the importance of the state to both campaigns.
Pence will also be in the state in Erie and Harris will be in Philadephia with John Legend
Labour seem to want to focus on Rishi as he may succeed Boris sooner than later
Also notice Starmer did not reference his 8% proposed corporation tax increase to the CBI
It's a possibility, though it seems like a decent attack line anyway.
Rishi is about the only senior Conservative with a good public image right now. Partly, he does seem genuinely good for a young'un, partly because his shiny image is still shiny (though I can see him becoming more than faintly absurd if he keeps the Insta-vibe going much longer). But mostly because, he hosed money around like a drunken sailor. The right thing to do, but also easy popularity.
But was that the real Rishi? He is, after all, a rich man who worked for a hedge fund. The government has been considerably less generous during the time of tiers. I don't think he's denied that he doesn't like the cost of Lockdown 2. If the opposition can convert Dishy Rishi into Stingy Sunak in the public's mind, that seems worth their while.
All political parties have members who are good people and members who are not. Rishi stands out from so many of current front line Tories because he is a decent human being. Yes he's a Conservative and is having to filter events through that world view. But he has thrown caution to the wind and thrown oceans of cash at people in ways that were almost inconceivable for a Tory chancellor to do.
Absolutely. Rishi is an impressive politician, decent human, firmly in a part of the Conservative tradition. Furlough was a huge achievement.
But since than, there have been definite missteps by the government, mostly quibbling over tiny amounts of cash- FSM and Tier 3 funding for example. The government does seem to have overdone "back to normal" in a way that has Treasury fingerprints all over it. If Rishi did try to avoid or delay Lockdown 2, that might be costly in lives and money.
Rishi is good politician and a good person. But not above criticism.
He comes across well, but the kind of aggressive hedge funds he made his money with don't suggest he's not the most moral person around.
Labour seem to want to focus on Rishi as he may succeed Boris sooner than later
Also notice Starmer did not reference his 8% proposed corporation tax increase to the CBI
It's a possibility, though it seems like a decent attack line anyway.
Rishi is about the only senior Conservative with a good public image right now. Partly, he does seem genuinely good for a young'un, partly because his shiny image is still shiny (though I can see him becoming more than faintly absurd if he keeps the Insta-vibe going much longer). But mostly because, he hosed money around like a drunken sailor. The right thing to do, but also easy popularity.
But was that the real Rishi? He is, after all, a rich man who worked for a hedge fund. The government has been considerably less generous during the time of tiers. I don't think he's denied that he doesn't like the cost of Lockdown 2. If the opposition can convert Dishy Rishi into Stingy Sunak in the public's mind, that seems worth their while.
All political parties have members who are good people and members who are not. Rishi stands out from so many of current front line Tories because he is a decent human being. Yes he's a Conservative and is having to filter events through that world view. But he has thrown caution to the wind and thrown oceans of cash at people in ways that were almost inconceivable for a Tory chancellor to do.
Absolutely. Rishi is an impressive politician, decent human, firmly in a part of the Conservative tradition. Furlough was a huge achievement.
But since than, there have been definite missteps by the government, mostly quibbling over tiny amounts of cash- FSM and Tier 3 funding for example. The government does seem to have overdone "back to normal" in a way that has Treasury fingerprints all over it. If Rishi did try to avoid or delay Lockdown 2, that might be costly in lives and money.
Rishi is good politician and a good person. But not above criticism.
He comes across well, but the kind of aggressive hedge funds he made his money with don't suggest he's not the most moral person around.
CBS has Trump winning 279 to 259 if there is a surge of Trump voters on the day, Biden wins 375 to 163 if early voters dominate and otherwise it is Biden 279 and Trump 163 and 96 toss ups
Shoudn't we be basing projections only on Trafalgar?
Trafalgar does mass polls aimed at identifying Trump voters others miss, especially in rural areas and who are otherwise politically disengaged
"xxx does mass polls aimed at identifying voters others miss, including in rural areas and who are otherwise politically disengaged. " would be a good thing. Deliberately skewing your sample to a population known to be favourable to one party is not. That is approaching Daily Express levels of polling bad practice.
The "2020 is a poorly written drama" result is for the Electoral College to be either nearly tied or actually tied, and then a faithless elector or two switched the result. And then a vaccine is announced.
Labour seem to want to focus on Rishi as he may succeed Boris sooner than later
Also notice Starmer did not reference his 8% proposed corporation tax increase to the CBI
It's a possibility, though it seems like a decent attack line anyway.
Rishi is about the only senior Conservative with a good public image right now. Partly, he does seem genuinely good for a young'un, partly because his shiny image is still shiny (though I can see him becoming more than faintly absurd if he keeps the Insta-vibe going much longer). But mostly because, he hosed money around like a drunken sailor. The right thing to do, but also easy popularity.
But was that the real Rishi? He is, after all, a rich man who worked for a hedge fund. The government has been considerably less generous during the time of tiers. I don't think he's denied that he doesn't like the cost of Lockdown 2. If the opposition can convert Dishy Rishi into Stingy Sunak in the public's mind, that seems worth their while.
All political parties have members who are good people and members who are not. Rishi stands out from so many of current front line Tories because he is a decent human being. Yes he's a Conservative and is having to filter events through that world view. But he has thrown caution to the wind and thrown oceans of cash at people in ways that were almost inconceivable for a Tory chancellor to do.
Absolutely. Rishi is an impressive politician, decent human, firmly in a part of the Conservative tradition. Furlough was a huge achievement.
But since than, there have been definite missteps by the government, mostly quibbling over tiny amounts of cash- FSM and Tier 3 funding for example. The government does seem to have overdone "back to normal" in a way that has Treasury fingerprints all over it. If Rishi did try to avoid or delay Lockdown 2, that might be costly in lives and money.
Rishi is good politician and a good person. But not above criticism.
He comes across well, but the kind of aggressive hedge funds he made his money with don't suggest he's not the most moral person around.
Perhaps that's why he decides to stop working for them and go into politics? Also, not all the hedge funds he worked for are quite like. The Children's Investment Fund Management which was run by one the UK most generous philanthropists and described as an environmental-social-governance (ESG)-related fund that takes activist left-of-center positions and uses internal pressure campaigns to compel companies’ management to adopt them
CBS has Trump winning 279 to 259 if there is a surge of Trump voters on the day, Biden wins 375 to 163 if early voters dominate and otherwise it is Biden 279 and Trump 163 and 96 toss ups
I like how you have buried the better Biden news behind a Trump victory.
I see from that link in the Trump surge he wins PA but not WI or MI to squeak home. This is the only way I see him winning,. Technically he has other paths but realistically he needs to hold AZ and PA (both unlikely but possible) and then all the other states from 2016 bar MI and WI. A tough ask but to me this is the only way he wins
Both Biden and Trump will be in Pennsylvania today, Trump is holding a rally at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton airport and Biden is holding an event in Pittsburgh with Lady Gaga emphasising the importance of the state to both campaigns.
Pence will also be in the state in Erie and Harris will be in Philadephia with John Legend
The other thing I noticed from that CBS link was the tiny % Trump wins by in several key states even with the 'surge' on polling day. I think it was 4 or 5 states at him winning at less than 0.5%. So yes its possible but that kind of shows even in the best case scenario for him theres no room for any drop in that 'surge' tomorrow.
Labour seem to want to focus on Rishi as he may succeed Boris sooner than later
Also notice Starmer did not reference his 8% proposed corporation tax increase to the CBI
It's a possibility, though it seems like a decent attack line anyway.
Rishi is about the only senior Conservative with a good public image right now. Partly, he does seem genuinely good for a young'un, partly because his shiny image is still shiny (though I can see him becoming more than faintly absurd if he keeps the Insta-vibe going much longer). But mostly because, he hosed money around like a drunken sailor. The right thing to do, but also easy popularity.
But was that the real Rishi? He is, after all, a rich man who worked for a hedge fund. The government has been considerably less generous during the time of tiers. I don't think he's denied that he doesn't like the cost of Lockdown 2. If the opposition can convert Dishy Rishi into Stingy Sunak in the public's mind, that seems worth their while.
All political parties have members who are good people and members who are not. Rishi stands out from so many of current front line Tories because he is a decent human being. Yes he's a Conservative and is having to filter events through that world view. But he has thrown caution to the wind and thrown oceans of cash at people in ways that were almost inconceivable for a Tory chancellor to do.
Absolutely. Rishi is an impressive politician, decent human, firmly in a part of the Conservative tradition. Furlough was a huge achievement.
But since than, there have been definite missteps by the government, mostly quibbling over tiny amounts of cash- FSM and Tier 3 funding for example. The government does seem to have overdone "back to normal" in a way that has Treasury fingerprints all over it. If Rishi did try to avoid or delay Lockdown 2, that might be costly in lives and money.
Rishi is good politician and a good person. But not above criticism.
He comes across well, but the kind of aggressive hedge funds he made his money with don't suggest he's not the most moral person around.
Perhaps that's why he decides to stop working for them and go into politics? Also, not all the hedge funds he worked for are quite like. The Children's Investment Fund Management which was run by one the UK most generous philanthropists.
He’s enough money to go and play at politics, more fun, social acceptability, chance to play with the big boys. Can’t imagine he has a plan to give something back and there is always the opportunity to accidentally drop info at the dinner table when his FiL is around.
Yay! Mrs RP reports that two of her teaching colleagues now have Covid. Does make me laugh how people are flapping about "lockdown" when its nothing of the sort
I still remember the Daly Mail/Daily express comments from July/August about how safe it would be in schools when the pupils went back. I remember them saying that students don't transmit to each other so it's all right. When challenged about infecting teachers they said "the jury is still out on that one". Outrageous. How many teachers, parents and grannies have died due to this.
It would be refreshing if the "lockdown sceptics" ever admitted error.
- There are no excess deaths from covid in March/April - The excess deaths aren't actually that high; they were sort of "owed" already - All the models were wrong, we'd have been fine if we hadn't locked down - Only oldies get it - Loads of us have already had it; we've got close to herd immunity already - Children can't get it or transmit it on - There won't be a second wave - All the positives are false positives
We're going around the cycle again, with no reference to the fact they were totally wrong last time around. As I count it, we've repeated the first five already.
Not under the lockdown sceptics but similar going round in circles. - We'll have a vaccine by October - We'll have a vaccine by the end of the year - We'll have a vaccine by March.
And - "We can only tell how bad the virus is by looking at excess deaths". When the awful graph of excess deaths in March/April came out "But they are deaths of people who would have died this year anyway, we can only tell how bad the virus is by looking at excess deaths for the whole of 2020"
Not sure who was claiming the vaccine by October? However I have said, many times, and still do, that we will be vaccinating before Christmas. May not be widespread, but it will happen. I acknowledge peoples skepticism about this, but trials do have to be conducted safely, and with enough cases to show efficacy. Have patience.
Labour seem to want to focus on Rishi as he may succeed Boris sooner than later
Also notice Starmer did not reference his 8% proposed corporation tax increase to the CBI
It's a possibility, though it seems like a decent attack line anyway.
Rishi is about the only senior Conservative with a good public image right now. Partly, he does seem genuinely good for a young'un, partly because his shiny image is still shiny (though I can see him becoming more than faintly absurd if he keeps the Insta-vibe going much longer). But mostly because, he hosed money around like a drunken sailor. The right thing to do, but also easy popularity.
But was that the real Rishi? He is, after all, a rich man who worked for a hedge fund. The government has been considerably less generous during the time of tiers. I don't think he's denied that he doesn't like the cost of Lockdown 2. If the opposition can convert Dishy Rishi into Stingy Sunak in the public's mind, that seems worth their while.
All political parties have members who are good people and members who are not. Rishi stands out from so many of current front line Tories because he is a decent human being. Yes he's a Conservative and is having to filter events through that world view. But he has thrown caution to the wind and thrown oceans of cash at people in ways that were almost inconceivable for a Tory chancellor to do.
Absolutely. Rishi is an impressive politician, decent human, firmly in a part of the Conservative tradition. Furlough was a huge achievement.
But since than, there have been definite missteps by the government, mostly quibbling over tiny amounts of cash- FSM and Tier 3 funding for example. The government does seem to have overdone "back to normal" in a way that has Treasury fingerprints all over it. If Rishi did try to avoid or delay Lockdown 2, that might be costly in lives and money.
Rishi is good politician and a good person. But not above criticism.
He comes across well, but the kind of aggressive hedge funds he made his money with don't suggest he's not the most moral person around.
Perhaps that's why he decides to stop working for them and go into politics? Also, not all the hedge funds he worked for are quite like. The Children's Investment Fund Management which was run by one the UK most generous philanthropists.
He’s enough money to go and play at politics, more fun, social acceptability, chance to play with the big boys. Can’t imagine he has a plan to give something back and there is always the opportunity to accidentally drop info at the dinner table when his FiL is around.
How do you know he doesn't want to give back. I think most MPs enter politics exactly for that reason, give back and make a difference, especially people who have made money outside. There are loads of easier, less stressful and more "socially acceptable" ways to take your money and spend time getting to look like a good guy, without any of the downsides.
CBS has Trump winning 279 to 259 if there is a surge of Trump voters on the day, Biden wins 375 to 163 if early voters dominate and otherwise it is Biden 279 and Trump 163 and 96 toss ups
So if FL increases by the same proportion as the 135m to 160m nationally ie 18.5%
Would mean 10.8m in FL
Currently showing 8.7 M voted with 1m EV showing as not returned.
So if the majority of those 1m are counted only just over 1.1m votes to come OTD
Too big an ask for Trump if the numbers pan out like that
A big if BUT......
DYOR
In Florida, Biden's massive lead among registered voters has been squeezed to around 100,000 votes by Republican EV in person.
If 2m turn out on vote day and they are two thirds republican, as the polls suggest they will be, that is easily enough for Biden to lose.
Trump can even afford to lose independents a little and still win the state.
There is also the huge variable of nobody actually knowing how these registered voters actually voted. There are cross over votes, and also large numbers of independents.
That Early Voting blog looks like very bad news for Biden.
Am I missing something?
The EV in 2020 will be a much higher % of the Total Vote than was the case in 2016. Vice Versa for the On The Day vote.
I see what you are saying, hard to crunch the numbers in my head!
A simple (I hope) example. A subset of voters may swing from 70% A 30% B to 60% A 40% B, but if turnout of that subset of voters is twice as high as before, A's net advantage in votes is the same.
Yay! Mrs RP reports that two of her teaching colleagues now have Covid. Does make me laugh how people are flapping about "lockdown" when its nothing of the sort
I still remember the Daly Mail/Daily express comments from July/August about how safe it would be in schools when the pupils went back. I remember them saying that students don't transmit to each other so it's all right. When challenged about infecting teachers they said "the jury is still out on that one". Outrageous. How many teachers, parents and grannies have died due to this.
Just to add to the fun my eldest starts his work experience tomorrow in a primary school...
I wish him well for his career. I'm viewing this from the other end of my career....
Two households will be able to form a bubble in Wales after the firebreak lockdown ends on 9 November, First Minister Mark Drakeford said.
There will be no travel restrictions in Wales, but people will not be able to leave the country without a reasonable excuse during the English lockdown. Groups of 15 will be allowed to meet indoors, and groups of 30 outdoors.
15 people...15.....indoors....that seems more unwise than banning Tesco's from selling oven gloves. And 30 outdoors, that just prime for gangs of youth to congregate.
It is totally reckless on those numbers. And way too soon for that level of relaxation.
Apologies for half remembering but you are in Spain are you not? And are you retired?
Labour seem to want to focus on Rishi as he may succeed Boris sooner than later
Also notice Starmer did not reference his 8% proposed corporation tax increase to the CBI
It's a possibility, though it seems like a decent attack line anyway.
Rishi is about the only senior Conservative with a good public image right now. Partly, he does seem genuinely good for a young'un, partly because his shiny image is still shiny (though I can see him becoming more than faintly absurd if he keeps the Insta-vibe going much longer). But mostly because, he hosed money around like a drunken sailor. The right thing to do, but also easy popularity.
But was that the real Rishi? He is, after all, a rich man who worked for a hedge fund. The government has been considerably less generous during the time of tiers. I don't think he's denied that he doesn't like the cost of Lockdown 2. If the opposition can convert Dishy Rishi into Stingy Sunak in the public's mind, that seems worth their while.
All political parties have members who are good people and members who are not. Rishi stands out from so many of current front line Tories because he is a decent human being. Yes he's a Conservative and is having to filter events through that world view. But he has thrown caution to the wind and thrown oceans of cash at people in ways that were almost inconceivable for a Tory chancellor to do.
Absolutely. Rishi is an impressive politician, decent human, firmly in a part of the Conservative tradition. Furlough was a huge achievement.
But since than, there have been definite missteps by the government, mostly quibbling over tiny amounts of cash- FSM and Tier 3 funding for example. The government does seem to have overdone "back to normal" in a way that has Treasury fingerprints all over it. If Rishi did try to avoid or delay Lockdown 2, that might be costly in lives and money.
Rishi is good politician and a good person. But not above criticism.
He comes across well, but the kind of aggressive hedge funds he made his money with don't suggest he's not the most moral person around.
The final result is probably the most telling. Among people who dislike both candidates, Trump had a clear advantage over Clinton in 2016, but now it's flipped to Biden.
What about those who like/ liked both candid... Oh. I see my mistake.
Believe it or not there are apparently roughly as many 'Non-haters' as 'Double haters', or at least there were a few months ago. And the Non-Haters split for Trump almost as much as the Double Haters split for Biden. The key, however, is that there are more people who like Biden only than like Trump only.
Labour seem to want to focus on Rishi as he may succeed Boris sooner than later
Also notice Starmer did not reference his 8% proposed corporation tax increase to the CBI
It's a possibility, though it seems like a decent attack line anyway.
Rishi is about the only senior Conservative with a good public image right now. Partly, he does seem genuinely good for a young'un, partly because his shiny image is still shiny (though I can see him becoming more than faintly absurd if he keeps the Insta-vibe going much longer). But mostly because, he hosed money around like a drunken sailor. The right thing to do, but also easy popularity.
But was that the real Rishi? He is, after all, a rich man who worked for a hedge fund. The government has been considerably less generous during the time of tiers. I don't think he's denied that he doesn't like the cost of Lockdown 2. If the opposition can convert Dishy Rishi into Stingy Sunak in the public's mind, that seems worth their while.
All political parties have members who are good people and members who are not. Rishi stands out from so many of current front line Tories because he is a decent human being. Yes he's a Conservative and is having to filter events through that world view. But he has thrown caution to the wind and thrown oceans of cash at people in ways that were almost inconceivable for a Tory chancellor to do.
Absolutely. Rishi is an impressive politician, decent human, firmly in a part of the Conservative tradition. Furlough was a huge achievement.
But since than, there have been definite missteps by the government, mostly quibbling over tiny amounts of cash- FSM and Tier 3 funding for example. The government does seem to have overdone "back to normal" in a way that has Treasury fingerprints all over it. If Rishi did try to avoid or delay Lockdown 2, that might be costly in lives and money.
Rishi is good politician and a good person. But not above criticism.
He comes across well, but the kind of aggressive hedge funds he made his money with don't suggest he's not the most moral person around.
Perhaps that's why he decides to stop working for them and go into politics? Also, not all the hedge funds he worked for are quite like. The Children's Investment Fund Management which was run by one the UK most generous philanthropists and described as an environmental-social-governance (ESG)-related fund that takes activist left-of-center positions and uses internal pressure campaigns to compel companies’ management to adopt them
Maybe - I'd be interested to read anything he's written about his time pre-financial crash, and whether he feels he he had any responsibility for the wider economy/country. If that's why he changed direction then it's a neater back story, but one I'd assumed he'd have told by now.
Is this all the nonsense about being a free man and not entering to any contracts with the state?
The Sovereign Citizen Movement, yes.
Germany has a variant on this where the "Reichbürger" claim that the current German state is illegitimate and hence they're still citizens of the Reich.
Not in any way at all excusing the dickheads, but as an aside, why the hell didn't the Supermarkets just impose a limit for a week or so, until the morons saw there would be no shortage. It should have been obvious that the terminally bewildered mob would react like this again.
It's just Project Fear that the supermarket shelves could be stripped bare because of...
While Brexit could easily lead to shortages of imported goods, it is harder to see why Covid will. But in defence of "dickheads" that is not the question. If everyone else is panic-buying spaghetti hoops then it is only sensible for a customer who is not a dickhead to add a couple of tins to their own trolley while there are any left on the shelves. The tragedy of the commons does not involve any individual acting irrationally.
We have broken the back of any dickhead saying that Brexit-related bare shelves is "Project Fear".
Bullshit. Covid hasn't caused shortages and bare shelves. Morons thinking it will and panic buying is what has caused it. As such if you are one of those predicting shortages because of Brexit and so encouraging people to panic buy then you are one of the dickheads. It is up to you whether you want to own that label.
Labour seem to want to focus on Rishi as he may succeed Boris sooner than later
Also notice Starmer did not reference his 8% proposed corporation tax increase to the CBI
It's a possibility, though it seems like a decent attack line anyway.
Rishi is about the only senior Conservative with a good public image right now. Partly, he does seem genuinely good for a young'un, partly because his shiny image is still shiny (though I can see him becoming more than faintly absurd if he keeps the Insta-vibe going much longer). But mostly because, he hosed money around like a drunken sailor. The right thing to do, but also easy popularity.
But was that the real Rishi? He is, after all, a rich man who worked for a hedge fund. The government has been considerably less generous during the time of tiers. I don't think he's denied that he doesn't like the cost of Lockdown 2. If the opposition can convert Dishy Rishi into Stingy Sunak in the public's mind, that seems worth their while.
All political parties have members who are good people and members who are not. Rishi stands out from so many of current front line Tories because he is a decent human being. Yes he's a Conservative and is having to filter events through that world view. But he has thrown caution to the wind and thrown oceans of cash at people in ways that were almost inconceivable for a Tory chancellor to do.
Absolutely. Rishi is an impressive politician, decent human, firmly in a part of the Conservative tradition. Furlough was a huge achievement.
But since than, there have been definite missteps by the government, mostly quibbling over tiny amounts of cash- FSM and Tier 3 funding for example. The government does seem to have overdone "back to normal" in a way that has Treasury fingerprints all over it. If Rishi did try to avoid or delay Lockdown 2, that might be costly in lives and money.
Rishi is good politician and a good person. But not above criticism.
He comes across well, but the kind of aggressive hedge funds he made his money with don't suggest he's not the most moral person around.
Perhaps that's why he decides to stop working for them and go into politics? Also, not all the hedge funds he worked for are quite like. The Children's Investment Fund Management which was run by one the UK most generous philanthropists.
He’s enough money to go and play at politics, more fun, social acceptability, chance to play with the big boys. Can’t imagine he has a plan to give something back and there is always the opportunity to accidentally drop info at the dinner table when his FiL is around.
How do you know he doesn't want to give back. I think most MPs enter politics exactly for that reason, give back and make a difference, especially people who have made money outside. There are loads of easier, less stressful and more "socially acceptable" ways to take your money and spend time getting to look like a good guy, without any of the downsides.
Indeed, Rishi Sunak is a very able guy, has a first class degree from Oxford and a Stanford MBA, made a lot of money in the City and has even more family money given his father in law is an Indian billionaire, he could have had an easy life of luxury without the hassle of politics but has chosen to perform public service.
CBS has Trump winning 279 to 259 if there is a surge of Trump voters on the day, Biden wins 375 to 163 if early voters dominate and otherwise it is Biden 279 and Trump 163 and 96 toss ups
Shoudn't we be basing projections only on Trafalgar?
Trafalgar does mass polls aimed at identifying Trump voters others miss, especially in rural areas and who are otherwise politically disengaged
By "polling" do you really mean guessing.
They are all guessing. The cleverer pollsters are admitting the problems they are all having getting republicans to talk about their opinions in swing states.
Though I'll bet they have *all* the airsoft guns....
A while back a friend who works for both a university and a legal publication asked these chaps to produce all the evidence of the court cases they say they've won using their freeman-on-the-land defence.
My friend got a lot of abuse from them & no evidence, despite months of asking, she concluded they were a bunch of incel virgins.
Labour seem to want to focus on Rishi as he may succeed Boris sooner than later
Also notice Starmer did not reference his 8% proposed corporation tax increase to the CBI
It's a possibility, though it seems like a decent attack line anyway.
Rishi is about the only senior Conservative with a good public image right now. Partly, he does seem genuinely good for a young'un, partly because his shiny image is still shiny (though I can see him becoming more than faintly absurd if he keeps the Insta-vibe going much longer). But mostly because, he hosed money around like a drunken sailor. The right thing to do, but also easy popularity.
But was that the real Rishi? He is, after all, a rich man who worked for a hedge fund. The government has been considerably less generous during the time of tiers. I don't think he's denied that he doesn't like the cost of Lockdown 2. If the opposition can convert Dishy Rishi into Stingy Sunak in the public's mind, that seems worth their while.
All political parties have members who are good people and members who are not. Rishi stands out from so many of current front line Tories because he is a decent human being. Yes he's a Conservative and is having to filter events through that world view. But he has thrown caution to the wind and thrown oceans of cash at people in ways that were almost inconceivable for a Tory chancellor to do.
Absolutely. Rishi is an impressive politician, decent human, firmly in a part of the Conservative tradition. Furlough was a huge achievement.
But since than, there have been definite missteps by the government, mostly quibbling over tiny amounts of cash- FSM and Tier 3 funding for example. The government does seem to have overdone "back to normal" in a way that has Treasury fingerprints all over it. If Rishi did try to avoid or delay Lockdown 2, that might be costly in lives and money.
Rishi is good politician and a good person. But not above criticism.
He comes across well, but the kind of aggressive hedge funds he made his money with don't suggest he's not the most moral person around.
Perhaps that's why he decides to stop working for them and go into politics? Also, not all the hedge funds he worked for are quite like. The Children's Investment Fund Management which was run by one the UK most generous philanthropists.
He’s enough money to go and play at politics, more fun, social acceptability, chance to play with the big boys. Can’t imagine he has a plan to give something back and there is always the opportunity to accidentally drop info at the dinner table when his FiL is around.
How do you know he doesn't want to give back. I think most MPs enter politics exactly for that reason, give back and make a difference, especially people who have made money outside. There are loads of easier, less stressful and more "socially acceptable" ways to take your money and spend time getting to look like a good guy, without any of the downsides.
Indeed, Rishi Sunak is a very able guy, has a first class degree from Oxford and a Stanford MBA, made a lot of money in the City and has even more family money given his father in law is an Indian billionaire, he could have had an easy life of luxury without the hassle of politics but has chosen to perform public service.
He is not just a career politician
One thing that changed in the 20th cent was the rise of the professional, paid politician.
A relative has reached the stage that his business can run itself for half the week - in times past he would have on the council and probably looking at parliament. These days - why put his family through that, and for what?
I wa half tempted to believe some of the uniformed rhetoric about Trafalgar on here, but then Cahaly made a comment that struck me as interesting.
He said that suburban women are drifting back to Trump, not because they like him (they really don;'t), but because they dislike their kids not going to school more.
Is this all the nonsense about being a free man and not entering to any contracts with the state?
The Sovereign Citizen Movement, yes.
Germany has a variant on this where the "Reichbürger" claim that the current German state is illegitimate and hence they're still citizens of the Reich.
I know a lawyer who encounters these people in his work as a barrister who still does some smallish claims for banks and businesses, where the other side often represents themselves. For the sake of politeness I won't pass on the words he uses to describe them...
Disgraceful comments from the crook who runs Trafalgar. Saying on Fox that the Dems will steal Pennsylvania from Trump with voter fraud . This of course is his way of saying his poll would have been correct but for the alleged voter fraud . So he wins either way! Has any other pollster gone on tv and alleged voter fraud . His polls should no longer be included in any averages and should no longer be posted in here.
No politician with even a shred of credibility would say anything like that. For a self proclaimed pollster to do so is beyond absurd.
Is this all the nonsense about being a free man and not entering to any contracts with the state?
The Sovereign Citizen Movement, yes.
Germany has a variant on this where the "Reichbürger" claim that the current German state is illegitimate and hence they're still citizens of the Reich.
I know a lawyer who encounters these people in his work as a barrister who still does some smallish claims for banks and businesses, where the other side often represents themselves. For the sake of politeness I won't pass on the words he uses to describe them...
"Useful marks"? I hope he is on an hourly rate.....
Though I'll bet they have *all* the airsoft guns....
A while back a friend who works for both a university and a legal publication asked these chaps to produce all the evidence of the court cases they say they've won using their freeman-on-the-land defence.
My friend got a lot of abuse from them & no evidence, despite months of asking, she concluded they were a bunch of incel virgins.
I have to say that your friend sounds somewhat foolish. A bit like asking for pizza advice from QAnon....
I wa half tempted to believe some of the uniformed rhetoric about Trafalgar on here, but then Cahaly made a comment that struck me as interesting.
He said that suburban women are drifting back to Trump, not because they like him (they really don;'t), but because they dislike their kids not going to school more.
Maybe he is talking to voters after all.
Ask your pollster mate if it is believable for Trafalgar to have identical demographic breakdowns for 3 polls in a row.
I wa half tempted to believe some of the uniformed rhetoric about Trafalgar on here, but then Cahaly made a comment that struck me as interesting.
He said that suburban women are drifting back to Trump, not because they like him (they really don;'t), but because they dislike their kids not going to school more.
Maybe he is talking to voters after all.
Ask your pollster mate if it is believable for Trafalgar to have identical demographic breakdowns for 3 polls in a row.
Not a mate just someone I follow...but anyhooo....
He's worth between 18 and 40 million Euro according to what I can see so whilst he can well afford to lose it it's a good sized bet still.
He is an incredibly smart long time gambler and had owned betting sites, he won't have stuck up 1/18 of his life roll. Like a lot of people around the poker world, many got in very early on bitcoin and also amassed huge amounts in that.
CBS has Trump winning 279 to 259 if there is a surge of Trump voters on the day, Biden wins 375 to 163 if early voters dominate and otherwise it is Biden 279 and Trump 163 and 96 toss ups
Shoudn't we be basing projections only on Trafalgar?
Trafalgar does mass polls aimed at identifying Trump voters others miss, especially in rural areas and who are otherwise politically disengaged
By "polling" do you really mean guessing.
They are all guessing. The cleverer pollsters are admitting the problems they are all having getting republicans to talk about their opinions in swing states.
The rest are lying.
The other pollsters may be wrong, but at least they are asking the questions. There is some doubt as whether Cahaly has asked anyone, except himself.
I wa half tempted to believe some of the uniformed rhetoric about Trafalgar on here, but then Cahaly made a comment that struck me as interesting.
He said that suburban women are drifting back to Trump, not because they like him (they really don;'t), but because they dislike their kids not going to school more.
Maybe he is talking to voters after all.
Ask your pollster mate if it is believable for Trafalgar to have identical demographic breakdowns for 3 polls in a row.
They've tossed in a Michigan Trump +3 today.
Just getting silly if you ask me. Verging on trolling.
Two households will be able to form a bubble in Wales after the firebreak lockdown ends on 9 November, First Minister Mark Drakeford said.
There will be no travel restrictions in Wales, but people will not be able to leave the country without a reasonable excuse during the English lockdown. Groups of 15 will be allowed to meet indoors, and groups of 30 outdoors.
15 people...15.....indoors....that seems more unwise than banning Tesco's from selling oven gloves. And 30 outdoors, that just prime for gangs of youth to congregate.
It is totally reckless on those numbers. And way too soon for that level of relaxation.
Apologies for half remembering but you are in Spain are you not? And are you retired?
No need to apologise. Yes and yes. Very aware of how dangerous the summer relaxation was here - which we are now paying heavily for.
Is this all the nonsense about being a free man and not entering to any contracts with the state?
The Sovereign Citizen Movement, yes.
Germany has a variant on this where the "Reichbürger" claim that the current German state is illegitimate and hence they're still citizens of the Reich.
I know a lawyer who encounters these people in his work as a barrister who still does some smallish claims for banks and businesses, where the other side often represents themselves. For the sake of politeness I won't pass on the words he uses to describe them...
Magma Carter? Volcanic.
HeadofLegal bloggger Carl Gardner used to write about this beautifully contemptuously.
BTW, which Reich? Aren't they still about 3 or 4 behind the number of Republics they have had in France?
If CBS is right on the numbers cited by Mike in the header, Biden is entering Election Day with a lead of nearly 32 million votes. Total turnout for Trump just to catch up with Biden needs to top 170 million, i.e. more than 76 million on the day. That would be around 40+ million votes more than the two leading candidates got in 2016, and 33+ million more than the total 2016 vote.
Of course, we know with vote efficiency, Trump does not need to win the popular vote, but even so, if CBS's numbers are right, that is somewhat bigger than Everest for Trump.
Two households will be able to form a bubble in Wales after the firebreak lockdown ends on 9 November, First Minister Mark Drakeford said.
There will be no travel restrictions in Wales, but people will not be able to leave the country without a reasonable excuse during the English lockdown. Groups of 15 will be allowed to meet indoors, and groups of 30 outdoors.
15 people...15.....indoors....that seems more unwise than banning Tesco's from selling oven gloves. And 30 outdoors, that just prime for gangs of youth to congregate.
It is totally reckless on those numbers. And way too soon for that level of relaxation.
Not really convinced that Drakeford is going pull this off:
Perhaps he's going to do a Starmer and Boris style reverse ferret, whilst furiously asserting that he is not.
Trump winning would be the biggest polling catastrophe since the infamous 1936 Literary Digest voodoo polling (which is how I rate Trafalgar by the way).
"Joe Biden leads President Trump by double digits nationally, USC poll suggests" LA Times headline
He's worth between 18 and 40 million Euro according to what I can see so whilst he can well afford to lose it it's a good sized bet still.
He is an incredibly smart long time gambler and had owned betting sites, he won't have stuck up 1/18 of his life roll. Like a lot of people around the poker world, many got in very early on bitcoin and also amassed huge amounts in that.
Is 1/18th really that crazy? I don't really know how you'd calculate it - but it's a market where he always has the option to partially cash out right up until the day. It's also not that hard to make covering bets to limit risk.
Is this all the nonsense about being a free man and not entering to any contracts with the state?
The Sovereign Citizen Movement, yes.
Germany has a variant on this where the "Reichbürger" claim that the current German state is illegitimate and hence they're still citizens of the Reich.
I know a lawyer who encounters these people in his work as a barrister who still does some smallish claims for banks and businesses, where the other side often represents themselves. For the sake of politeness I won't pass on the words he uses to describe them...
Magma Carter? Volcanic.
HeadofLegal bloggger Carl Gardner used to write about this beautifully contemptuously.
BTW, which Reich? Aren't they still about 3 or 4 behind the number of Republics they have had in France?
Weimar Republic, apparently, which was still called "Reich". Although I'd suspect many Reichbürgers do mean its post-1933 form ...
He's worth between 18 and 40 million Euro according to what I can see so whilst he can well afford to lose it it's a good sized bet still.
He is an incredibly smart long time gambler and had owned betting sites, he won't have stuck up 1/18 of his life roll. Like a lot of people around the poker world, many got in very early on bitcoin and also amassed huge amounts in that.
Is 1/18th really that crazy? I don't really know how you'd calculate it - but it's a market where he always has the option to partially cash out right up until the day. It's also not that hard to make covering bets to limit risk.
1/18 of your alleged life wealth....not gambling roll. And you use the Kelly Criterion.
I suggest he is wealthier than 18 million euro. He (used to) plays in massive poker games for fun, where pots regularly reach $100ks.
Even though I don't agree with the need for this new lockdown, we're going to get it. What I don't see from the government or any supporters of this new lockdown are proposals to use this time to fix the testing and isolation system. I don't see what will have changed on the 2nd of December, the virus isn't going to have magically gone away by then and we're going to have the same deficiencies in our testing and isolation system.
Does anyone know if any proposals have come from the government, what they are and what, other than broad "fix it" demands, proposals are coming from the opposition who are voting in favour of it?
So far I have seen nothing, no single or solid proposal from anyone near the levers of power on fixing testing or isolation. None of the politicians, scientists or academics have made any suggestions on what can be improved or how.
We've got this lockdown, lets at least bloody use this time productively and put measures in place to increase isolation rates and get door knocking testing in place for contact tracing. We'll be back to where we are now 2-3 weeks after the 2nd of December if nothing changes with isolation and testing and the demands for renewed lockdown will come back from the same politicians and scientists who have made no effort to actually fix the issues with testing, isolation and contact tracing.
Labour seem to want to focus on Rishi as he may succeed Boris sooner than later
Also notice Starmer did not reference his 8% proposed corporation tax increase to the CBI
It's a possibility, though it seems like a decent attack line anyway.
Rishi is about the only senior Conservative with a good public image right now. Partly, he does seem genuinely good for a young'un, partly because his shiny image is still shiny (though I can see him becoming more than faintly absurd if he keeps the Insta-vibe going much longer). But mostly because, he hosed money around like a drunken sailor. The right thing to do, but also easy popularity.
But was that the real Rishi? He is, after all, a rich man who worked for a hedge fund. The government has been considerably less generous during the time of tiers. I don't think he's denied that he doesn't like the cost of Lockdown 2. If the opposition can convert Dishy Rishi into Stingy Sunak in the public's mind, that seems worth their while.
All political parties have members who are good people and members who are not. Rishi stands out from so many of current front line Tories because he is a decent human being. Yes he's a Conservative and is having to filter events through that world view. But he has thrown caution to the wind and thrown oceans of cash at people in ways that were almost inconceivable for a Tory chancellor to do.
Absolutely. Rishi is an impressive politician, decent human, firmly in a part of the Conservative tradition. Furlough was a huge achievement.
But since than, there have been definite missteps by the government, mostly quibbling over tiny amounts of cash- FSM and Tier 3 funding for example. The government does seem to have overdone "back to normal" in a way that has Treasury fingerprints all over it. If Rishi did try to avoid or delay Lockdown 2, that might be costly in lives and money.
Rishi is good politician and a good person. But not above criticism.
He comes across well, but the kind of aggressive hedge funds he made his money with don't suggest he's not the most moral person around.
Perhaps that's why he decides to stop working for them and go into politics? Also, not all the hedge funds he worked for are quite like. The Children's Investment Fund Management which was run by one the UK most generous philanthropists.
He’s enough money to go and play at politics, more fun, social acceptability, chance to play with the big boys. Can’t imagine he has a plan to give something back and there is always the opportunity to accidentally drop info at the dinner table when his FiL is around.
How do you know he doesn't want to give back. I think most MPs enter politics exactly for that reason, give back and make a difference, especially people who have made money outside. There are loads of easier, less stressful and more "socially acceptable" ways to take your money and spend time getting to look like a good guy, without any of the downsides.
Indeed, Rishi Sunak is a very able guy, has a first class degree from Oxford and a Stanford MBA, made a lot of money in the City and has even more family money given his father in law is an Indian billionaire, he could have had an easy life of luxury without the hassle of politics but has chosen to perform public service.
He is not just a career politician
One thing that changed in the 20th cent was the rise of the professional, paid politician.
A relative has reached the stage that his business can run itself for half the week - in times past he would have on the council and probably looking at parliament. These days - why put his family through that, and for what?
We still have some councillors who have built up successful businesses beforehand but yes now increasingly politics can be a career path for professional politicians ie politics degree, SPAD or researcher, councillor then MP
Comments
Pence will also be in the state in Erie and Harris will be in Philadephia with John Legend
if critical care beds are nearly full in certain regions of England, why not show the public this data, as they do in France?
kate andrews, telegraph
would be a good thing. Deliberately skewing your sample to a population known to be favourable to one party is not. That is approaching Daily Express levels of polling bad practice.
And then a vaccine is announced.
End of season cliffhanger.
(This is NOT a forecast, HYUFD)
THE ADJECTIVE OF VICTORY
If 2m turn out on vote day and they are two thirds republican, as the polls suggest they will be, that is easily enough for Biden to lose.
Trump can even afford to lose independents a little and still win the state.
There is also the huge variable of nobody actually knowing how these registered voters actually voted. There are cross over votes, and also large numbers of independents.
https://twitter.com/paulmotty/status/1323249441671962626?s=19
They earn more than us teachers!!
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/13/politics/voters-biden-trump-2020-analysis/index.html
He is not just a career politician
http://www.projects.law.manchester.ac.uk/religion-law-and-the-constitution/freemen-land-freedom-belief-not-freedom-law/
The rest are lying.
My friend got a lot of abuse from them & no evidence, despite months of asking, she concluded they were a bunch of incel virgins.
A relative has reached the stage that his business can run itself for half the week - in times past he would have on the council and probably looking at parliament. These days - why put his family through that, and for what?
He said that suburban women are drifting back to Trump, not because they like him (they really don;'t), but because they dislike their kids not going to school more.
Maybe he is talking to voters after all.
For a self proclaimed pollster to do so is beyond absurd.
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1323254146883940352
I'm happy with how you do it at present.
https://twitter.com/stand_for_all/status/1323250568043864064?s=21
Adding 'the' to Magna Carta is like adding pineapple to pizza.
Or just as you are.
@TheScreamingEagles please will you disable Twitter embeds.
Just getting silly if you ask me. Verging on trolling.
I work my magic on Wordpress not on Vanilla.
Donald Trump Jr vs Jimmy
MAGA Carter
HeadofLegal bloggger Carl Gardner used to write about this beautifully contemptuously.
BTW, which Reich? Aren't they still about 3 or 4 behind the number of Republics they have had in France?
Of course, we know with vote efficiency, Trump does not need to win the popular vote, but even so, if CBS's numbers are right, that is somewhat bigger than Everest for Trump.
#optimisim
Perhaps he's going to do a Starmer and Boris style reverse ferret, whilst furiously asserting that he is not.
"Joe Biden leads President Trump by double digits nationally, USC poll suggests" LA Times headline
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-11-02/trump-down-key-groups-from-four-years-ago
It isn't going to happen.
I don't really know how you'd calculate it - but it's a market where he always has the option to partially cash out right up until the day. It's also not that hard to make covering bets to limit risk.
I suggest he is wealthier than 18 million euro. He (used to) plays in massive poker games for fun, where pots regularly reach $100ks.
Does anyone know if any proposals have come from the government, what they are and what, other than broad "fix it" demands, proposals are coming from the opposition who are voting in favour of it?
So far I have seen nothing, no single or solid proposal from anyone near the levers of power on fixing testing or isolation. None of the politicians, scientists or academics have made any suggestions on what can be improved or how.
We've got this lockdown, lets at least bloody use this time productively and put measures in place to increase isolation rates and get door knocking testing in place for contact tracing. We'll be back to where we are now 2-3 weeks after the 2nd of December if nothing changes with isolation and testing and the demands for renewed lockdown will come back from the same politicians and scientists who have made no effort to actually fix the issues with testing, isolation and contact tracing.
Come to think of it, that's not too far from Boris's approach.