As I posted yesterday, I thought there was a good chance that, given the huge pressure the testing system is under, there would be an increase in false positives.
Seems I'm not alone. The pathologist Dr Clare Craig agrees:
"The laboratories have been under huge pressure to increase throughput whilst also increasing turnaround times. Any pathologist would predict a rise in errors in such a scenario, despite the best efforts of the technicians acting in complete good faith. The type of testing carried out for Covid can quite easily produce false positive results without exceptionally high levels of cleanliness to prevent cross contamination with frequent replacement of protective clothing and frequent cleaning of every area of the laboratory from bench to fridge handles. Any rise in errors causing increased false positives would inevitably lead to the mistaken belief that cases were on the rise."
Her article is an absolute belter. Raises serious questions over the stats for deaths from covid which are higher than they should be given the number who are very ill with covid.
"The only explanation for the significant divergence between the lack of severe cases and a rising death count is that the official statistics are relying on erroneous data."
Edit: This might explain Germany's low death rate?
Jesus Christ, THIS sort of shite is why we’re going to end up back in a full lockdown.
Toby Young and his ilk, their credulous and desperate followers, the denialists - THAT’S the biggest difference around how countries are doing. How many self-deluding denialists go around frantically flailing for reasons to say “it’s not real, it’s not real, it’s not real, it’s not real, it’s not real.”
Wake up and smell the goddamn coffee!
My son had a hell of a time in the first lockdown; autistic kids don’t do well in that scenario. And thanks to the marching morons of misinformation, the disciples of Dunning-Kruger, the wizards of wishful thinking, we’re going to end up right back in it as the hospitals overflow while the fools who lap up Young’s lockdownsceptics stupidity continue to yammer desperately, “no, but false positives, Sweden, herd immunity, not the young, doesn’t really harm people, no, no, no.”
This entire pandemic has exposed just how desperately the country needs to be trained in elementary critical thinking and basic statistics. Because the moment wishful thinking kicks in, previously intelligent people become the most gullible in the world.
In fairness that article is a proper statistical analysis of inconsistent trends which raise question marks about the quality of the data. The quality of the data driving policy has been a real problem for our government and indeed the governments of other countries since this began.
At the start of this we probably overcounted Covid deaths because anyone who died who had had Covid was counted, whether that caused their death or not. This made the government look bad so we introduced a 28 day cut off. But even within those 28 days it is likely that a lot of people are dying with Covid but not of Covid. If a high percentage of people are asymptomatic that seems fairly inevitable.
So what? Other than making us look worse in some international league table what is the concern here? I am not sure. The very high death figures are clearly driving policy and enhancing our lockdown measures but would they be materially different if they were 20% less? Doubtful. I don't think any discrepancy in the death rate is affecting policy on ICU bed availability, for example.
We are told that the median age is 84 (this may be out of date now given the recent increase in deaths) and that the majority will have at least 2 comorbidities. Many of those in the statistics would have died within the same timescale anyway and many more within months. None of this makes those deaths less tragic but it should inform public policy and the scale of our response. Personally, I am more interested in the effectiveness of the response than its scale. We are still using mallets, ineffectively, instead of rapiers.
My initial thought was that there is a degree of spurious accuracy in this and really some sort of bands should be shown for each scenario but on reflection it is worth that for the clarity of the message, especially the importance of ventilation.
Yes, that’s pretty good. Basically, open the window and stay away from busy indoor restaurants.
Interesting that pupils in a classroom aren’t much of a risk but the teacher potentially is.
Also - reducing the amount of time an infectious person spends in a room has a massive effect. Perhaps we could keep eg cafes open with timed tickets 30 minutes and your time is up, tho it might be hard to police.
Pupils are going to infect each other outside the classroom - my son can only play with his classmates in the breaks but they do not distance from each other and are loud. In the classroom they have a designated seat, and are not so loud.
The thing I like about that clip is how calm Osoff remains. He’s not angry, he’s not blustering, he’s just simply stating facts as facts in a tone of mingled disappointment and contempt.
Perdue looks like he’s being forced to drink neat horse piss.
I'm not asking how you know how that looks. Whatever you get up to at your school I am sure that it is character forming, or something.
It's quite incredible how many things have gone wrong for Trump, even now. From the Tulsa fiaso to boats sinking and then stranding his supporters in the freezing cold at Ohama. It has been a textbook how not to run a campaign.
But it's the outside factors which have swept in. The pandemic has gotten worse the whole time Trump has tried to dismiss it. The Rose Garden super spreader event and his own cavalier attitude has shown him totally out of touch with ordinary Americans.
And now his final card, the stock markets, have taken a hammering not because they think Biden will win but because of the pandemic.
Anyone betting on Trump or claiming he's going to win has their head in the 2016 sand and isn't reading the signs.
This is excellent. But this has been the core Japanese message since *March*, WTF are the British still doing banging on about hands face space or whatever?
Just made an extraordinary discovery by playing with the US Covid numbers for the year. If you rank the States in terms of the number of cases per million people, which is a fair measure of how badly the virus has been disseminated, the first 17 States all voted for Trump in 2019.
It is why Trump will lose. At first it was Democrat-controlled areas that the virus hit so Trump could blame Democrat governors and mayors but recently it has cut a swathe through his own supporters.
Correlation is not causation. Trump will lose because he is (to put it politely) incompetent as president. Because he is incompetent he failed to do anything against the virus spreading. The virus then spread through areas where the government telling people what to do is deeply resented. These are, not coincidently, the areas which also have more Trump voters.
My initial thought was that there is a degree of spurious accuracy in this and really some sort of bands should be shown for each scenario but on reflection it is worth that for the clarity of the message, especially the importance of ventilation.
Yes, that’s pretty good. Basically, open the window and stay away from busy indoor restaurants.
Interesting that pupils in a classroom aren’t much of a risk but the teacher potentially is.
I didn't take that from it. The example simply assumed that the teacher was the one who had it. In fact they are surely the most effective transmitter of the virus as they speak out loud for extended periods and move around the room more than most the pupils. If they had chosen a pupil to be infected then I suspect the outcome of that scenario would have been different.
The GOP are now trying to get 100,000 votes from a Harris county , Texas drive thru voting centre invalidated . They don’t even pretend anymore . They have gone from voter suppression to trying to manipulate the results . They really are despicable.
The thing I like about that clip is how calm Osoff remains. He’s not angry, he’s not blustering, he’s just simply stating facts as facts in a tone of mingled disappointment and contempt.
Perdue looks like he’s being forced to drink neat horse piss.
My initial thought was that there is a degree of spurious accuracy in this and really some sort of bands should be shown for each scenario but on reflection it is worth that for the clarity of the message, especially the importance of ventilation.
Yes, that’s pretty good. Basically, open the window and stay away from busy indoor restaurants.
Interesting that pupils in a classroom aren’t much of a risk but the teacher potentially is.
Also - reducing the amount of time an infectious person spends in a room has a massive effect. Perhaps we could keep eg cafes open with timed tickets 30 minutes and your time is up, tho it might be hard to police.
Pupils are going to infect each other outside the classroom - my son can only play with his classmates in the breaks but they do not distance from each other and are loud. In the classroom they have a designated seat, and are not so loud.
edit: but really good article
Certainly all the Edinburgh pubs, when they were allowed to open, had time limits on how long you were allowed to be there, typically 2 hours, and they did police it. I feel desperately sorry for publicans. They tried so hard to comply and yet remain an easy target for politicians needing to do something.
The thing I like about that clip is how calm Osoff remains. He’s not angry, he’s not blustering, he’s just simply stating facts as facts in a tone of mingled disappointment and contempt.
Perdue looks like he’s being forced to drink neat horse piss.
I'm not asking how you know how that looks. Whatever you get up to at your school I am sure that it is character forming, or something.
I do it often enough to other people.
Er, that is, point out logical inconsistencies in their posts...
Just made an extraordinary discovery by playing with the US Covid numbers for the year. If you rank the States in terms of the number of cases per million people, which is a fair measure of how badly the virus has been disseminated, the first 17 States all voted for Trump in 2019.
It is why Trump will lose. At first it was Democrat-controlled areas that the virus hit so Trump could blame Democrat governors and mayors but recently it has cut a swathe through his own supporters.
It's even more damning than that. He politicised the epidemic. His supporters believed him when he played it down and refused to encourage basic preventative measures. Now they are paying the price, disproportionately so in relation to democrats.
The man should be arraigned before a public court and put away for life.
My initial thought was that there is a degree of spurious accuracy in this and really some sort of bands should be shown for each scenario but on reflection it is worth that for the clarity of the message, especially the importance of ventilation.
Yes, that’s pretty good. Basically, open the window and stay away from busy indoor restaurants.
Interesting that pupils in a classroom aren’t much of a risk but the teacher potentially is.
I didn't take that from it. The example simply assumed that the teacher was the one who had it. In fact they are surely the most effective transmitter of the virus as they speak out loud for extended periods and move around the room more than most the pupils. If they had chosen a pupil to be infected then I suspect the outcome of that scenario would have been different.
The Elfen Safety guidance is that spreading doesn’t happen unless you are on a level with a child within 2 metres for more than fifteen minutes. So if there is a case, every child that has been sat within two metres has to isolate. Teachers, however, do not.
However, this graphic suggests that is bollocks, which is what I always thought it was. If a child has been in an unventilated room for five hours they will be risking spreading it to everyone. Which is what current policy forces them to do...
If this Imperial College report of 100,000 infections per day in the UK is in anyway accurate then any semblance of the idea that mandatory mask wearing prevents infection must be out of the window.
In regards to the report's accuracy yesterday the testing capacity in the UK yesterday was 440,000, and 280,000 had a test so there is loads of spare capacity. Its likely that 25,000 of those will be postive. That means there are 75,000 people each day getting Covid with absolutely no idea that they have it (or they would have a test). Therefore herd immunity will be achieved well before a vaccine programme is completed.
As I posted yesterday, I thought there was a good chance that, given the huge pressure the testing system is under, there would be an increase in false positives.
Seems I'm not alone. The pathologist Dr Clare Craig agrees:
"The laboratories have been under huge pressure to increase throughput whilst also increasing turnaround times. Any pathologist would predict a rise in errors in such a scenario, despite the best efforts of the technicians acting in complete good faith. The type of testing carried out for Covid can quite easily produce false positive results without exceptionally high levels of cleanliness to prevent cross contamination with frequent replacement of protective clothing and frequent cleaning of every area of the laboratory from bench to fridge handles. Any rise in errors causing increased false positives would inevitably lead to the mistaken belief that cases were on the rise."
Her article is an absolute belter. Raises serious questions over the stats for deaths from covid which are higher than they should be given the number who are very ill with covid.
"The only explanation for the significant divergence between the lack of severe cases and a rising death count is that the official statistics are relying on erroneous data."
Edit: This might explain Germany's low death rate?
Jesus Christ, THIS sort of shite is why we’re going to end up back in a full lockdown.
Toby Young and his ilk, their credulous and desperate followers, the denialists - THAT’S the biggest difference around how countries are doing. How many self-deluding denialists go around frantically flailing for reasons to say “it’s not real, it’s not real, it’s not real, it’s not real, it’s not real.”
Wake up and smell the goddamn coffee!
My son had a hell of a time in the first lockdown; autistic kids don’t do well in that scenario. And thanks to the marching morons of misinformation, the disciples of Dunning-Kruger, the wizards of wishful thinking, we’re going to end up right back in it as the hospitals overflow while the fools who lap up Young’s lockdownsceptics stupidity continue to yammer desperately, “no, but false positives, Sweden, herd immunity, not the young, doesn’t really harm people, no, no, no.”
This entire pandemic has exposed just how desperately the country needs to be trained in elementary critical thinking and basic statistics. Because the moment wishful thinking kicks in, previously intelligent people become the most gullible in the world.
In fairness that article is a proper statistical analysis of inconsistent trends which raise question marks about the quality of the data. The quality of the data driving policy has been a real problem for our government and indeed the governments of other countries since this began.
At the start of this we probably overcounted Covid deaths because anyone who died who had had Covid was counted, whether that caused their death or not. This made the government look bad so we introduced a 28 day cut off. But even within those 28 days it is likely that a lot of people are dying with Covid but not of Covid. If a high percentage of people are asymptomatic that seems fairly inevitable.
So what? Other than making us look worse in some international league table what is the concern here? I am not sure. The very high death figures are clearly driving policy and enhancing our lockdown measures but would they be materially different if they were 20% less? Doubtful. I don't think any discrepancy in the death rate is affecting policy on ICU bed availability, for example.
We are told that the median age is 84 (this may be out of date now given the recent increase in deaths) and that the majority will have at least 2 comorbidities. Many of those in the statistics would have died within the same timescale anyway and many more within months. None of this makes those deaths less tragic but it should inform public policy and the scale of our response. Personally, I am more interested in the effectiveness of the response than its scale. We are still using mallets, ineffectively, instead of rapiers.
Since the principal object is to avoid a Bergamo style overload of hospital facilities, ISTM that ICU occupancy (and its rate of change) should be the key metric.
Closing down the economy and the rest of the NHS to reduce the death rate of 80-year-olds who are already ill surely has more downsides than advantages.
That was a truly stunning half hour from Rashford last night. Speed, positioning, power, ruthlessness, it had the lot. I've never seen him play that well.
It’s funny how we get approving noises about ultra partisan ways to fuck with democracy when it benefits the Democrats.
Beware of unintended consequences - remember devolution was going to secure Labour’s stronghold in Scotland for all eternity
Not much democracy in the USA as it is. Also usual Tory crap example, devolution in Scotland was about democracy. Fact that Labour did not benefit was anything but undemocratic. Only a twisted Tory mind could imagine that people in Scotland being able to vote was undemocratic.
My initial thought was that there is a degree of spurious accuracy in this and really some sort of bands should be shown for each scenario but on reflection it is worth that for the clarity of the message, especially the importance of ventilation.
Yes, that’s pretty good. Basically, open the window and stay away from busy indoor restaurants.
Interesting that pupils in a classroom aren’t much of a risk but the teacher potentially is.
I didn't take that from it. The example simply assumed that the teacher was the one who had it. In fact they are surely the most effective transmitter of the virus as they speak out loud for extended periods and move around the room more than most the pupils. If they had chosen a pupil to be infected then I suspect the outcome of that scenario would have been different.
The dynamics of transmission via aerosols in the classroom change completely depending on whether the infected person – or patient zero – is a student or a teacher. Teachers talk far more than students and raise their voices to be heard, which multiplies the expulsion of potentially contagious particles. In comparison, an infected student will only speak occasionally.
My initial thought was that there is a degree of spurious accuracy in this and really some sort of bands should be shown for each scenario but on reflection it is worth that for the clarity of the message, especially the importance of ventilation.
Yes, that’s pretty good. Basically, open the window and stay away from busy indoor restaurants.
Interesting that pupils in a classroom aren’t much of a risk but the teacher potentially is.
I didn't take that from it. The example simply assumed that the teacher was the one who had it. In fact they are surely the most effective transmitter of the virus as they speak out loud for extended periods and move around the room more than most the pupils. If they had chosen a pupil to be infected then I suspect the outcome of that scenario would have been different.
The dynamics of transmission via aerosols in the classroom change completely depending on whether the infected person – or patient zero – is a student or a teacher. Teachers talk far more than students and raise their voices to be heard, which multiplies the expulsion of potentially contagious particles. In comparison, an infected student will only speak occasionally.
Yes, exactly. I thought you were saying the opposite. I may have misread your original post.
That was a truly stunning half hour from Rashford last night. Speed, positioning, power, ruthlessness, it had the lot. I've never seen him play that well.
Well, he must be feeling (a) very well supported and (b) bloody angry at the moment. Everyone agrees with him and is lavishing praise on him, including his employers, except the people who could sort things out.
If this Imperial College report of 100,000 infections per day in the UK is in anyway accurate then any semblance of the idea that mandatory mask wearing prevents infection must be out of the window.
In regards to the report's accuracy yesterday the testing capacity in the UK yesterday was 440,000, and 280,000 had a test so there is loads of spare capacity. Its likely that 25,000 of those will be postive. That means there are 75,000 people each day getting Covid with absolutely no idea that they have it (or they would have a test). Therefore herd immunity will be achieved well before a vaccine programme is completed.
Get back in your hole and find a new tune that isn’t rashford or masks, tell us how the NHs is doing in southern England, something useful
My initial thought was that there is a degree of spurious accuracy in this and really some sort of bands should be shown for each scenario but on reflection it is worth that for the clarity of the message, especially the importance of ventilation.
Yes, that’s pretty good. Basically, open the window and stay away from busy indoor restaurants.
Interesting that pupils in a classroom aren’t much of a risk but the teacher potentially is.
I didn't take that from it. The example simply assumed that the teacher was the one who had it. In fact they are surely the most effective transmitter of the virus as they speak out loud for extended periods and move around the room more than most the pupils. If they had chosen a pupil to be infected then I suspect the outcome of that scenario would have been different.
The dynamics of transmission via aerosols in the classroom change completely depending on whether the infected person – or patient zero – is a student or a teacher. Teachers talk far more than students and raise their voices to be heard, which multiplies the expulsion of potentially contagious particles. In comparison, an infected student will only speak occasionally.
That person has, of course, never taught a class...
My initial thought was that there is a degree of spurious accuracy in this and really some sort of bands should be shown for each scenario but on reflection it is worth that for the clarity of the message, especially the importance of ventilation.
The irony (to bang on about schools again) is that according to that model by keeping children in one room for several hours at a stretch we’re adopting precisely the worst way of trying to control it.
Moving between classrooms every hour wearing masks would be better, especially as, to put it mildly, the distances shown in that graphic are optimistic.
If schools are still built around quadrangles, it would be simple enough to allow socially-distanced classroom changes by stipulating a clockwise-only rule (or anti-clockwise in Scotland).
The problem of the teacher showering 2b can be mitigated by providing a mask and a microphone so teachers do not need to project their voices to the back row.
Apart from the fact that none of the schools I've seen in England are built around a quad, the staggered break-time model only works in infants or junior schools. At senior and tertiary level you need somehow to fit the different teachers around the staggered timetables, which is a nightmare to organise with no timetable clashes.
One thing that people often forget when they talk about schools and corona virus is that there are huge differences between different type of schools. Infant schools have an age range of 4 to 7 (or so) where as sixth form colleges are 16-19 with some 20+ thrown in. 16-19 year olds are biologically much more similar to 30 year olds than 5 year olds. A 6 year old in full lock down has to be tutored by their parents, a 16 year old can legalls stay at home and does not need parental help to learn. I could go on all morning...
But everyone just talks about "schools must ..." without stopping to think how inhomogeneous schools are.
My initial thought was that there is a degree of spurious accuracy in this and really some sort of bands should be shown for each scenario but on reflection it is worth that for the clarity of the message, especially the importance of ventilation.
Yes, that’s pretty good. Basically, open the window and stay away from busy indoor restaurants.
Interesting that pupils in a classroom aren’t much of a risk but the teacher potentially is.
Also - reducing the amount of time an infectious person spends in a room has a massive effect. Perhaps we could keep eg cafes open with timed tickets 30 minutes and your time is up, tho it might be hard to police.
Pupils are going to infect each other outside the classroom - my son can only play with his classmates in the breaks but they do not distance from each other and are loud. In the classroom they have a designated seat, and are not so loud.
edit: but really good article
It isn't entirely obvious, however, how the total risk of being on a bar stool for say two hours compared to four people occupying the same stool for half an hour each? Possibly, the aggregate risk is the same. Indeed the latter could be the riskier situation, since there is clearly a non zero chance of multiple infections.
That was a truly stunning half hour from Rashford last night. Speed, positioning, power, ruthlessness, it had the lot. I've never seen him play that well.
Well, he must be feeling (a) very well supported and (b) bloody angry at the moment. Everyone agrees with him and is lavishing praise on him, including his employers, except the people who could sort things out.
No wonder he was playing as if possessed.
Well as a United fan I can only hope that the government keeps pissing him off for the rest of the season.
My initial thought was that there is a degree of spurious accuracy in this and really some sort of bands should be shown for each scenario but on reflection it is worth that for the clarity of the message, especially the importance of ventilation.
Yes, that’s pretty good. Basically, open the window and stay away from busy indoor restaurants.
Interesting that pupils in a classroom aren’t much of a risk but the teacher potentially is.
I didn't take that from it. The example simply assumed that the teacher was the one who had it. In fact they are surely the most effective transmitter of the virus as they speak out loud for extended periods and move around the room more than most the pupils. If they had chosen a pupil to be infected then I suspect the outcome of that scenario would have been different.
The dynamics of transmission via aerosols in the classroom change completely depending on whether the infected person – or patient zero – is a student or a teacher. Teachers talk far more than students and raise their voices to be heard, which multiplies the expulsion of potentially contagious particles. In comparison, an infected student will only speak occasionally.
Yes, exactly. I thought you were saying the opposite. I may have misread your original post.
I think you did, probably because my drafting was rubbish.
Anyhow, the scenario has been challenged above for its realism, by our resident expert
If this Imperial College report of 100,000 infections per day in the UK is in anyway accurate then any semblance of the idea that mandatory mask wearing prevents infection must be out of the window.
In regards to the report's accuracy yesterday the testing capacity in the UK yesterday was 440,000, and 280,000 had a test so there is loads of spare capacity. Its likely that 25,000 of those will be postive. That means there are 75,000 people each day getting Covid with absolutely no idea that they have it (or they would have a test). Therefore herd immunity will be achieved well before a vaccine programme is completed.
Those statistics seem very similar to those described by Merkel yesterday. She said that they only knew where 25% of infections were coming from.
@HYUFD the polls are being weighted to account for those white voters without degrees now. So why do you think the polls will be wrong again?
Rasmussen were right in 2016, their final national poll was Clinton +2%, this week they have had a Trump 1% lead or Biden +2%.
Trafalgar were right in Michigan and Pennsylvania and still have Trump ahead in Michigan and Pennsylvania tied.
ABC today also had Trump ahead both in the suburbs 49% to 46% for Biden as well as with non college educated whites 56% to 38% for Biden in Michigan and if they turn out in big enough numbers he could again win the pivotal swing state
That does not answer the question. I asked why you think polls are still undercounting white blue collar voters if they are now being weighted for. I didn’t ask “how Trump wins”.
My answer to that would be that the pollsters are using 2016 weightings for white blue collar voters and saying problem solved. The issue is if that category sees another big step up.
There is no doubt we are heading for a very high turnout but Black and Hispanic Americans don't look to be heading out in unprecedented numbers (with some exceptions such as FL). Graduate turnout was already quite high. The NC numbers - if you think they are a good proxy for the nation - are not showing unprecedented numbers of young people voting, quite the opposite. So the turnout is coming from somewhere.
That is why I don't believe the polls. I think this time, like last time, they will underrepresent white blue collar voters.
That was a truly stunning half hour from Rashford last night. Speed, positioning, power, ruthlessness, it had the lot. I've never seen him play that well.
Well, he must be feeling (a) very well supported and (b) bloody angry at the moment. Everyone agrees with him and is lavishing praise on him, including his employers, except the people who could sort things out.
No wonder he was playing as if possessed.
Well as a United fan I can only hope that the government keeps pissing him off for the rest of the season.
Speaking for myself, I’m hoping the opposite but I’m fully expecting to be disappointed.
My initial thought was that there is a degree of spurious accuracy in this and really some sort of bands should be shown for each scenario but on reflection it is worth that for the clarity of the message, especially the importance of ventilation.
Yes, that’s pretty good. Basically, open the window and stay away from busy indoor restaurants.
Interesting that pupils in a classroom aren’t much of a risk but the teacher potentially is.
I didn't take that from it. The example simply assumed that the teacher was the one who had it. In fact they are surely the most effective transmitter of the virus as they speak out loud for extended periods and move around the room more than most the pupils. If they had chosen a pupil to be infected then I suspect the outcome of that scenario would have been different.
The dynamics of transmission via aerosols in the classroom change completely depending on whether the infected person – or patient zero – is a student or a teacher. Teachers talk far more than students and raise their voices to be heard, which multiplies the expulsion of potentially contagious particles. In comparison, an infected student will only speak occasionally.
That person has, of course, never taught a class...
My initial thought was that there is a degree of spurious accuracy in this and really some sort of bands should be shown for each scenario but on reflection it is worth that for the clarity of the message, especially the importance of ventilation.
Yes, that’s pretty good. Basically, open the window and stay away from busy indoor restaurants.
Interesting that pupils in a classroom aren’t much of a risk but the teacher potentially is.
Also - reducing the amount of time an infectious person spends in a room has a massive effect. Perhaps we could keep eg cafes open with timed tickets 30 minutes and your time is up, tho it might be hard to police.
Pupils are going to infect each other outside the classroom - my son can only play with his classmates in the breaks but they do not distance from each other and are loud. In the classroom they have a designated seat, and are not so loud.
edit: but really good article
Certainly all the Edinburgh pubs, when they were allowed to open, had time limits on how long you were allowed to be there, typically 2 hours, and they did police it. I feel desperately sorry for publicans. They tried so hard to comply and yet remain an easy target for politicians needing to do something.
My initial thought was that there is a degree of spurious accuracy in this and really some sort of bands should be shown for each scenario but on reflection it is worth that for the clarity of the message, especially the importance of ventilation.
Yes, that’s pretty good. Basically, open the window and stay away from busy indoor restaurants.
Interesting that pupils in a classroom aren’t much of a risk but the teacher potentially is.
Also - reducing the amount of time an infectious person spends in a room has a massive effect. Perhaps we could keep eg cafes open with timed tickets 30 minutes and your time is up, tho it might be hard to police.
Pupils are going to infect each other outside the classroom - my son can only play with his classmates in the breaks but they do not distance from each other and are loud. In the classroom they have a designated seat, and are not so loud.
edit: but really good article
Certainly all the Edinburgh pubs, when they were allowed to open, had time limits on how long you were allowed to be there, typically 2 hours, and they did police it. I feel desperately sorry for publicans. They tried so hard to comply and yet remain an easy target for politicians needing to do something.
Ah I didn't know that. How did they police it?
Using the track and trace. You had to log in when you arrived and they would tell you when your time was up.
Trump needs to run up the votes in more rural counties in mid west states so the virus spiking in those states is very bad news for him as he can’t afford to lose any of those rural votes . In terms of his rallies bizarely some think it helps his cause . All it does is remind voters that he’s hosting daily super spreader events and some of his recent comments at those are going to drive even more suburban women voters into the Biden camp.
That was a truly stunning half hour from Rashford last night. Speed, positioning, power, ruthlessness, it had the lot. I've never seen him play that well.
My initial thought was that there is a degree of spurious accuracy in this and really some sort of bands should be shown for each scenario but on reflection it is worth that for the clarity of the message, especially the importance of ventilation.
Yes, that’s pretty good. Basically, open the window and stay away from busy indoor restaurants.
Interesting that pupils in a classroom aren’t much of a risk but the teacher potentially is.
Also - reducing the amount of time an infectious person spends in a room has a massive effect. Perhaps we could keep eg cafes open with timed tickets 30 minutes and your time is up, tho it might be hard to police.
Pupils are going to infect each other outside the classroom - my son can only play with his classmates in the breaks but they do not distance from each other and are loud. In the classroom they have a designated seat, and are not so loud.
edit: but really good article
It isn't entirely obvious, however, how the total risk of being on a bar stool for say two hours compared to four people occupying the same stool for half an hour each? Possibly, the aggregate risk is the same. Indeed the latter could be the riskier situation, since there is clearly a non zero chance of multiple infections.
I think the real point was about visually demonstrating the importance of ventilation versus aerosol generation. There are millions of possible scenarios, but the basic idea is pretty simple.
If this Imperial College report of 100,000 infections per day in the UK is in anyway accurate then any semblance of the idea that mandatory mask wearing prevents infection must be out of the window.
In regards to the report's accuracy yesterday the testing capacity in the UK yesterday was 440,000, and 280,000 had a test so there is loads of spare capacity. Its likely that 25,000 of those will be postive. That means there are 75,000 people each day getting Covid with absolutely no idea that they have it (or they would have a test). Therefore herd immunity will be achieved well before a vaccine programme is completed.
Those statistics seem very similar to those described by Merkel yesterday. She said that they only knew where 25% of infections were coming from.
I wonder if these reports are just produced to scare people. If you think how different the world is now with social distancing, wfh, no one on public transport etc etc to February/ Early March. if we are getting 100,000 infections a day now, we must have been near 500,000 at the end of February. Therefore herd immunity will come some.
Surely of far greater importance is the abolition of the Electoral College, surely. Anything else is just tinkering at the edge.
That may be a good idea but unlike adding states, which can be done with a bare congressional majority, you really need at least *some* GOP support to do it. The standard route is a constitutional amendment, which needs a super-majority. The tricksy route is the Popular Vote Compact, which in theory the Dems might be able to do if they sweep the purple-state statehouses and/or win ballot propositions, but the purple states are by definition the ones that are doing best out of the current system, so you really need some red ones.
That was a truly stunning half hour from Rashford last night. Speed, positioning, power, ruthlessness, it had the lot. I've never seen him play that well.
Surely nailed on for SPotY.
Given how little sport of any description there’s been, the only other realistic contenders would be Hamilton and possibly Nadal.
My initial thought was that there is a degree of spurious accuracy in this and really some sort of bands should be shown for each scenario but on reflection it is worth that for the clarity of the message, especially the importance of ventilation.
Yes, that’s pretty good. Basically, open the window and stay away from busy indoor restaurants.
Interesting that pupils in a classroom aren’t much of a risk but the teacher potentially is.
Also - reducing the amount of time an infectious person spends in a room has a massive effect. Perhaps we could keep eg cafes open with timed tickets 30 minutes and your time is up, tho it might be hard to police.
Pupils are going to infect each other outside the classroom - my son can only play with his classmates in the breaks but they do not distance from each other and are loud. In the classroom they have a designated seat, and are not so loud.
edit: but really good article
It isn't entirely obvious, however, how the total risk of being on a bar stool for say two hours compared to four people occupying the same stool for half an hour each? Possibly, the aggregate risk is the same. Indeed the latter could be the riskier situation, since there is clearly a non zero chance of multiple infections.
True, and you would increase the risk of a superspreader going from one venue to another...
If this Imperial College report of 100,000 infections per day in the UK is in anyway accurate then any semblance of the idea that mandatory mask wearing prevents infection must be out of the window.
In regards to the report's accuracy yesterday the testing capacity in the UK yesterday was 440,000, and 280,000 had a test so there is loads of spare capacity. Its likely that 25,000 of those will be postive. That means there are 75,000 people each day getting Covid with absolutely no idea that they have it (or they would have a test). Therefore herd immunity will be achieved well before a vaccine programme is completed.
Those statistics seem very similar to those described by Merkel yesterday. She said that they only knew where 25% of infections were coming from.
Hang on, those two things are different, aren't they? Merkel's stat sounds like they are having track and trace struggles rather than the number of positive tests being a massive underestimate of the real situation.
If Imperial are right, then this will be over pretty quickly. Sadly, I think they're are wrong.
If this Imperial College report of 100,000 infections per day in the UK is in anyway accurate then any semblance of the idea that mandatory mask wearing prevents infection must be out of the window.
In regards to the report's accuracy yesterday the testing capacity in the UK yesterday was 440,000, and 280,000 had a test so there is loads of spare capacity. Its likely that 25,000 of those will be postive. That means there are 75,000 people each day getting Covid with absolutely no idea that they have it (or they would have a test). Therefore herd immunity will be achieved well before a vaccine programme is completed.
Those statistics seem very similar to those described by Merkel yesterday. She said that they only knew where 25% of infections were coming from.
I wonder if these reports are just produced to scare people.
On topic - excellent suggestion from Mike. Smart politics to give DC statehood and obviously the right thing ethically. Much more feasible than court packing.
Another thing they should prioritise is passing some kind of federal law protecting voter rights.
The supreme court is going to gut the existing protections. We need new ones, updated for the modern age.
Now that they are suffering fourthousand new cases a day the good folk of Wisconsin have figured out that Trump really isn't that good for them.
No flies on those Badgers.
The American new case rates didn't fall away dramatically during the summer and are on the increase. But on a population adjusted basis, the new case rates in European countries - despite the more widespread precautions - are now rising faster than in the US; only Germany remains below, and then not by much. It appears Europe is simply catching up with what has already happened in the US, and the effect of our greater efforts in the summer has postponed a lot of the same case growth into the autumn.
That was a truly stunning half hour from Rashford last night. Speed, positioning, power, ruthlessness, it had the lot. I've never seen him play that well.
Surely nailed on for SPotY.
Still 2/1 with Hills (I think).
I think there might be value on Ronnie O'Sullivan at 9-1.
Mutual admiration society for someone who failed multiple times to be elected as an MP and a soon to be ex-President facing his own 'law and order' problems.
On topic - excellent suggestion from Mike. Smart politics to give DC statehood and obviously the right thing ethically. Much more feasible than court packing.
Another thing they should prioritise is passing some kind of federal law protecting voter rights.
The supreme court is going to gut the existing protections. We need new ones, updated for the modern age.
Another 'help America vote Act', following on from 2002
The Supreme Court has basically told Pennsylvania voters who use a postal vote that its validity depends on the efficiency of the postal service, as they will only decide how to treat those votes after the election.
Nearly 100,000 people are catching coronavirus every day in England, a major analysis suggests.
The study, by Imperial College London, says the pace of the epidemic is accelerating and estimates the number of people infected is now doubling every nine days.
The South East, South West, east of England and London all have an R above 2.0. London has an estimated R of 2.86.
No that was the number testing positive, but we don't catch everyone who is positive (if we did the pandemic would end).
The ONS survey shows the true state of the pandemic and that was past 50k then wasn't it?
The Vallance-Whitty graph was based on the number testing positive - which is why it started at 3,105 on 15/09/20.
So Andrew Neil was correct.
Yes but the graph was also based on a starting positivity rate of 0.6% of cases and the ONS survey at the time showing we were catching most of the cases.
Since then the positivity rate has gone from 0.6% to nearly 10% and the ONS shows we aren't catching as high a percentage of cases. So comparing 18k to the 3k is meaningless gibberish that Andrew Neil would rightly call out as preposterous nonsense if someone tried to pull a stunt like that with him.
Meh, his tweet was saying that the prediction of 50,000 recorded cases was not going to happen, and he was correct. Nothing about what the starting positivity rate was or anything.
The 50,000 was only the first half of the scenario/prediction. The second half was that it would lead to 200+ deaths a day a month later. Although even the counting of deaths is problematic, they're more reliable than cases.
The 7-day average on 20th October was 180 deaths, so we seem to be some way ahead of that part.
As I posted yesterday, I thought there was a good chance that, given the huge pressure the testing system is under, there would be an increase in false positives.
Seems I'm not alone. The pathologist Dr Clare Craig agrees:
"The laboratories have been under huge pressure to increase throughput whilst also increasing turnaround times. Any pathologist would predict a rise in errors in such a scenario, despite the best efforts of the technicians acting in complete good faith. The type of testing carried out for Covid can quite easily produce false positive results without exceptionally high levels of cleanliness to prevent cross contamination with frequent replacement of protective clothing and frequent cleaning of every area of the laboratory from bench to fridge handles. Any rise in errors causing increased false positives would inevitably lead to the mistaken belief that cases were on the rise."
Her article is an absolute belter. Raises serious questions over the stats for deaths from covid which are higher than they should be given the number who are very ill with covid.
"The only explanation for the significant divergence between the lack of severe cases and a rising death count is that the official statistics are relying on erroneous data."
Edit: This might explain Germany's low death rate?
Jesus Christ, THIS sort of shite is why we’re going to end up back in a full lockdown.
Toby Young and his ilk, their credulous and desperate followers, the denialists - THAT’S the biggest difference around how countries are doing. How many self-deluding denialists go around frantically flailing for reasons to say “it’s not real, it’s not real, it’s not real, it’s not real, it’s not real.”
Wake up and smell the goddamn coffee!
My son had a hell of a time in the first lockdown; autistic kids don’t do well in that scenario. And thanks to the marching morons of misinformation, the disciples of Dunning-Kruger, the wizards of wishful thinking, we’re going to end up right back in it as the hospitals overflow while the fools who lap up Young’s lockdownsceptics stupidity continue to yammer desperately, “no, but false positives, Sweden, herd immunity, not the young, doesn’t really harm people, no, no, no.”
This entire pandemic has exposed just how desperately the country needs to be trained in elementary critical thinking and basic statistics. Because the moment wishful thinking kicks in, previously intelligent people become the most gullible in the world.
In fairness that article is a proper statistical analysis of inconsistent trends which raise question marks about the quality of the data. The quality of the data driving policy has been a real problem for our government and indeed the governments of other countries since this began.
At the start of this we probably overcounted Covid deaths because anyone who died who had had Covid was counted, whether that caused their death or not. This made the government look bad so we introduced a 28 day cut off. But even within those 28 days it is likely that a lot of people are dying with Covid but not of Covid. If a high percentage of people are asymptomatic that seems fairly inevitable.
So what? Other than making us look worse in some international league table what is the concern here? I am not sure. The very high death figures are clearly driving policy and enhancing our lockdown measures but would they be materially different if they were 20% less? Doubtful. I don't think any discrepancy in the death rate is affecting policy on ICU bed availability, for example.
We are told that the median age is 84 (this may be out of date now given the recent increase in deaths) and that the majority will have at least 2 comorbidities. Many of those in the statistics would have died within the same timescale anyway and many more within months. None of this makes those deaths less tragic but it should inform public policy and the scale of our response. Personally, I am more interested in the effectiveness of the response than its scale. We are still using mallets, ineffectively, instead of rapiers.
The median age of death from Covid (the halfway mark; half of all deaths are younger than this, of course) was 82, not 84.
Similar to the median age of death from cancer. Or the median age of death from heart disease. Or the median age of death from all other diseases put together.
The majority of children who were hospitalised with covid had no co-morbidities; the most common comobidity of those who had one was asthma.
The "many of the were at deaths door" has been analysed and is mince; the median expectancy of those who died (taking into account co-morbidities, age, and sex) was between 10 and 13 years.
On topic - excellent suggestion from Mike. Smart politics to give DC statehood and obviously the right thing ethically. Much more feasible than court packing.
Another thing they should prioritise is passing some kind of federal law protecting voter rights.
The supreme court is going to gut the existing protections. We need new ones, updated for the modern age.
The US needs a constitutional convention under Article V to update the whole thing from top to bottom.
If this Imperial College report of 100,000 infections per day in the UK is in anyway accurate then any semblance of the idea that mandatory mask wearing prevents infection must be out of the window.
In regards to the report's accuracy yesterday the testing capacity in the UK yesterday was 440,000, and 280,000 had a test so there is loads of spare capacity. Its likely that 25,000 of those will be postive. That means there are 75,000 people each day getting Covid with absolutely no idea that they have it (or they would have a test). Therefore herd immunity will be achieved well before a vaccine programme is completed.
Which year were you thinking of? This year, next year, or the year after? Please show your arithmetic.
If 100,000 people per day get covid, how long does it take to get to 40,000,000 more infections?
If this Imperial College report of 100,000 infections per day in the UK is in anyway accurate then any semblance of the idea that mandatory mask wearing prevents infection must be out of the window.
In regards to the report's accuracy yesterday the testing capacity in the UK yesterday was 440,000, and 280,000 had a test so there is loads of spare capacity. Its likely that 25,000 of those will be postive. That means there are 75,000 people each day getting Covid with absolutely no idea that they have it (or they would have a test). Therefore herd immunity will be achieved well before a vaccine programme is completed.
Still well over a year to get to 60%, even at those rates (which, if true, are likely not sustainable). Then there's the question of how long immunity lasts
Now that they are suffering fourthousand new cases a day the good folk of Wisconsin have figured out that Trump really isn't that good for them.
No flies on those Badgers.
The American new case rates didn't fall away dramatically during the summer and are on the increase. But on a population adjusted basis, the new case rates in European countries - despite the more widespread precautions - are now rising faster than in the US; only Germany remains below, and then not by much. It appears Europe is simply catching up with what has already happened in the US, and the effect of our greater efforts in the summer has postponed a lot of the same case growth into the autumn.
Yes, it's interesting that parts of the US effectively stayed in partial lockdown while Europe relaxed rules. eg schools in California are still closed.
My initial thought was that there is a degree of spurious accuracy in this and really some sort of bands should be shown for each scenario but on reflection it is worth that for the clarity of the message, especially the importance of ventilation.
Yes, that’s pretty good. Basically, open the window and stay away from busy indoor restaurants.
Interesting that pupils in a classroom aren’t much of a risk but the teacher potentially is.
I didn't take that from it. The example simply assumed that the teacher was the one who had it. In fact they are surely the most effective transmitter of the virus as they speak out loud for extended periods and move around the room more than most the pupils. If they had chosen a pupil to be infected then I suspect the outcome of that scenario would have been different.
Which is why I (and most of the other teachers at my school) wear a mask of some sort, and after we had a teacher who was a confirmed C-19 case we were told not to move around the class if at all possible. Some teachers’ desks have pupils sat immediately in front of them and so Perspex screens have been put up around them.
My initial thought was that there is a degree of spurious accuracy in this and really some sort of bands should be shown for each scenario but on reflection it is worth that for the clarity of the message, especially the importance of ventilation.
Yes, that’s pretty good. Basically, open the window and stay away from busy indoor restaurants.
Interesting that pupils in a classroom aren’t much of a risk but the teacher potentially is.
Also - reducing the amount of time an infectious person spends in a room has a massive effect. Perhaps we could keep eg cafes open with timed tickets 30 minutes and your time is up, tho it might be hard to police.
Pupils are going to infect each other outside the classroom - my son can only play with his classmates in the breaks but they do not distance from each other and are loud. In the classroom they have a designated seat, and are not so loud.
edit: but really good article
It isn't entirely obvious, however, how the total risk of being on a bar stool for say two hours compared to four people occupying the same stool for half an hour each? Possibly, the aggregate risk is the same. Indeed the latter could be the riskier situation, since there is clearly a non zero chance of multiple infections.
I think the real point was about visually demonstrating the importance of ventilation versus aerosol generation. There are millions of possible scenarios, but the basic idea is pretty simple.
Interesting statement in the report on fomite transmission being irrelevant. Suggesting no known cases, but then how do you actually know in most cases? Gathering in a home - was it transmission by droplets, aerosols or someone infected handling your food/glass/shaking your hand? How can you possibly tell after the event? I've seen other reports suggesting fomites probably not that important, but I think it'd very hard to actually measure.
Other than that, very good and clear. Only thing that threw me to start with was that it wasn't clear that those infected/not infected in mitigated scenarios were illustrated fairly randomly - e.g. with mask wearing I was trying to work out why particular people were claimed to get infected and others not.
If Tory MPs and lockdown sceptics want to make a difference, they should demand that the Government come clean on the costs of current and future restrictions. They should insist on sound accounting
Now that they are suffering fourthousand new cases a day the good folk of Wisconsin have figured out that Trump really isn't that good for them.
No flies on those Badgers.
The American new case rates didn't fall away dramatically during the summer and are on the increase. But on a population adjusted basis, the new case rates in European countries - despite the more widespread precautions - are now rising faster than in the US; only Germany remains below, and then not by much. It appears Europe is simply catching up with what has already happened in the US, and the effect of our greater efforts in the summer has postponed a lot of the same case growth into the autumn.
I have always had the nagging doubt that there is nothing we can do to prevent Covid infection other than a vaccine. We can do stuff to postpone infections but in the end Covid seems to do what it wants.
My initial thought was that there is a degree of spurious accuracy in this and really some sort of bands should be shown for each scenario but on reflection it is worth that for the clarity of the message, especially the importance of ventilation.
Yes, that’s pretty good. Basically, open the window and stay away from busy indoor restaurants.
Interesting that pupils in a classroom aren’t much of a risk but the teacher potentially is.
I didn't take that from it. The example simply assumed that the teacher was the one who had it. In fact they are surely the most effective transmitter of the virus as they speak out loud for extended periods and move around the room more than most the pupils. If they had chosen a pupil to be infected then I suspect the outcome of that scenario would have been different.
Which is why I (and most of the other teachers at my school) wear a mask of some sort, and after we had a teacher who was a confirmed C-19 case we were told not to move around the class if at all possible. Some teachers’ desks have pupils sat immediately in front of them and so Perspex screens have been put up around them.
Interestingly the El Pais article suggests it doesn't make much difference where in the classroom the pupil sits
My initial thought was that there is a degree of spurious accuracy in this and really some sort of bands should be shown for each scenario but on reflection it is worth that for the clarity of the message, especially the importance of ventilation.
Yes, that’s pretty good. Basically, open the window and stay away from busy indoor restaurants.
Interesting that pupils in a classroom aren’t much of a risk but the teacher potentially is.
I didn't take that from it. The example simply assumed that the teacher was the one who had it. In fact they are surely the most effective transmitter of the virus as they speak out loud for extended periods and move around the room more than most the pupils. If they had chosen a pupil to be infected then I suspect the outcome of that scenario would have been different.
The Elfen Safety guidance is that spreading doesn’t happen unless you are on a level with a child within 2 metres for more than fifteen minutes. So if there is a case, every child that has been sat within two metres has to isolate. Teachers, however, do not.
However, this graphic suggests that is bollocks, which is what I always thought it was. If a child has been in an unventilated room for five hours they will be risking spreading it to everyone. Which is what current policy forces them to do...
We are running lessons as normal in terms of pupils moving round the school. The timings have been changed a bit to give time for teachers to do a quick clean of the desks between lessons, though I’m not sure how much that helps.
The Supreme Court has basically told Pennsylvania voters who use a postal vote that its validity depends on the efficiency of the postal service, as they will only decide how to treat those votes after the election.
If the election does hang on those votes, which is far from impossible, how can they then make an unbiased ruling ?
There's also the "naked ballot" issue in PA, which could lead to a lot of postal votes being rejected. If the election is close, and it all rests on PA, and Trump is declared the winner by a far smaller margin the number of rejected postal ballots...Let's hope the polls are right and the election isn't close.
I thought from the URL you were linking to an article on electoral reform in the US, with a recommendation to switch to AV.
If TSE makes the same mistake, you will be lucky to avoid permanent exile to ConHome.
The only real advantage of AV (which isn't PR as we all know) is that it gives minor party supporters a chance to express support for their preference whilst then transferring their vote so that it can count in the two-party choice that faces voters in most seats. Given the negligible third party support in the US, its utility there appears even less than in the UK - unless you believe that the system itself would unlock hidden reserves of people yearning for an alternative to Rep or Dem (but not sufficiently yearning to vote for it now).
That was a truly stunning half hour from Rashford last night. Speed, positioning, power, ruthlessness, it had the lot. I've never seen him play that well.
Surely nailed on for SPotY.
Still 2/1 with Hills (I think).
I think there might be value on Ronnie O'Sullivan at 9-1.
Jockey Hollie Doyle won't win but is worth keeping in mind for the long place markets when they appear. This year she became the first woman jockey to win five races on a card and more than 100 winners for the second season running, and breaking the record for a woman jockey. She is, I'd have thought, very likely to be shortlisted.
My initial thought was that there is a degree of spurious accuracy in this and really some sort of bands should be shown for each scenario but on reflection it is worth that for the clarity of the message, especially the importance of ventilation.
Yes, that’s pretty good. Basically, open the window and stay away from busy indoor restaurants.
Interesting that pupils in a classroom aren’t much of a risk but the teacher potentially is.
I didn't take that from it. The example simply assumed that the teacher was the one who had it. In fact they are surely the most effective transmitter of the virus as they speak out loud for extended periods and move around the room more than most the pupils. If they had chosen a pupil to be infected then I suspect the outcome of that scenario would have been different.
The Elfen Safety guidance is that spreading doesn’t happen unless you are on a level with a child within 2 metres for more than fifteen minutes. So if there is a case, every child that has been sat within two metres has to isolate. Teachers, however, do not.
However, this graphic suggests that is bollocks, which is what I always thought it was. If a child has been in an unventilated room for five hours they will be risking spreading it to everyone. Which is what current policy forces them to do...
We are running lessons as normal in terms of pupils moving round the school. The timings have been changed a bit to give time for teachers to do a quick clean of the desks between lessons, though I’m not sure how much that helps.
That would seem to be sensible. But it’s not universal.
That was a truly stunning half hour from Rashford last night. Speed, positioning, power, ruthlessness, it had the lot. I've never seen him play that well.
Surely nailed on for SPotY.
Still 2/1 with Hills (I think).
I think there might be value on Ronnie O'Sullivan at 9-1.
Jockey Hollie Doyle won't win but is worth keeping in mind for the long place markets when they appear. This year she became the first woman jockey to win five races on a card and more than 100 winners for the second season running, and breaking the record for a woman jockey. She is, I'd have thought, very likely to be shortlisted.
But will people vote for her? The reason Phil Taylor, Kevin Sinfield, Nick Skelton and Jonathan Rea placed is because they have the fans of the sport backing them. Will that be the case with Doyle? I'm not so sure. Tao Geoghegan Hart might be a better bet for a place - if nominated, of course.
Comments
At the start of this we probably overcounted Covid deaths because anyone who died who had had Covid was counted, whether that caused their death or not. This made the government look bad so we introduced a 28 day cut off. But even within those 28 days it is likely that a lot of people are dying with Covid but not of Covid. If a high percentage of people are asymptomatic that seems fairly inevitable.
So what? Other than making us look worse in some international league table what is the concern here? I am not sure. The very high death figures are clearly driving policy and enhancing our lockdown measures but would they be materially different if they were 20% less? Doubtful. I don't think any discrepancy in the death rate is affecting policy on ICU bed availability, for example.
We are told that the median age is 84 (this may be out of date now given the recent increase in deaths) and that the majority will have at least 2 comorbidities. Many of those in the statistics would have died within the same timescale anyway and many more within months. None of this makes those deaths less tragic but it should inform public policy and the scale of our response. Personally, I am more interested in the effectiveness of the response than its scale. We are still using mallets, ineffectively, instead of rapiers.
Anything else is just tinkering at the edge.
Marcus Rashford: Man Utd striker scores hat-trick after 1m signatures
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/54727940
Pupils are going to infect each other outside the classroom - my son can only play with his classmates in the breaks but they do not distance from each other and are loud. In the classroom they have a designated seat, and are not so loud.
edit: but really good article
But it's the outside factors which have swept in. The pandemic has gotten worse the whole time Trump has tried to dismiss it. The Rose Garden super spreader event and his own cavalier attitude has shown him totally out of touch with ordinary Americans.
And now his final card, the stock markets, have taken a hammering not because they think Biden will win but because of the pandemic.
Anyone betting on Trump or claiming he's going to win has their head in the 2016 sand and isn't reading the signs.
Trump will lose because he is (to put it politely) incompetent as president.
Because he is incompetent he failed to do anything against the virus spreading. The virus then spread through areas where the government telling people what to do is deeply resented. These are, not coincidently, the areas which also have more Trump voters.
Er, that is, point out logical inconsistencies in their posts...
https://twitter.com/FarleyWrites/status/1321552280387260420
The man should be arraigned before a public court and put away for life.
However, this graphic suggests that is bollocks, which is what I always thought it was. If a child has been in an unventilated room for five hours they will be risking spreading it to everyone. Which is what current policy forces them to do...
In regards to the report's accuracy yesterday the testing capacity in the UK yesterday was 440,000, and 280,000 had a test so there is loads of spare capacity. Its likely that 25,000 of those will be postive. That means there are 75,000 people each day getting Covid with absolutely no idea that they have it (or they would have a test). Therefore herd immunity will be achieved well before a vaccine programme is completed.
Closing down the economy and the rest of the NHS to reduce the death rate of 80-year-olds who are already ill surely has more downsides than advantages.
https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1321539644765458433?s=19
Don't say mean thing about My Boy McMullin
No wonder he was playing as if possessed.
One thing that people often forget when they talk about schools and corona virus is that there are huge differences between different type of schools. Infant schools have an age range of 4 to 7 (or so) where as sixth form colleges are 16-19 with some 20+ thrown in. 16-19 year olds are biologically much more similar to 30 year olds than 5 year olds. A 6 year old in full lock down has to be tutored by their parents, a 16 year old can legalls stay at home and does not need parental help to learn. I could go on all morning...
But everyone just talks about "schools must ..." without stopping to think how inhomogeneous schools are.
Anyhow, the scenario has been challenged above for its realism, by our resident expert
There is no doubt we are heading for a very high turnout but Black and Hispanic Americans don't look to be heading out in unprecedented numbers (with some exceptions such as FL). Graduate turnout was already quite high. The NC numbers - if you think they are a good proxy for the nation - are not showing unprecedented numbers of young people voting, quite the opposite. So the turnout is coming from somewhere.
That is why I don't believe the polls. I think this time, like last time, they will underrepresent white blue collar voters.
Now that they are suffering fourthousand new cases a day the good folk of Wisconsin have figured out that Trump really isn't that good for them.
No flies on those Badgers.
https://goodlawproject.org/news/special-procurement-channels/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/election-us-2020-54727921
There are millions of possible scenarios, but the basic idea is pretty simple.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8891313/amp/Labour-MP-Apsana-Begum-charged-housing-fraud.html?__twitter_impression=true
I see we have had a leak of another run of Ferguson's covid simulation model again. This time to the Spectator.
If Imperial are right, then this will be over pretty quickly. Sadly, I think they're are wrong.
If TSE makes the same mistake, you will be lucky to avoid permanent exile to ConHome.
Another thing they should prioritise is passing some kind of federal law protecting voter rights.
The supreme court is going to gut the existing protections. We need new ones, updated for the modern age.
I think there might be value on Ronnie O'Sullivan at 9-1.
Pennsylvania Voters, Do Not Leave Your Mail-In Ballots in the Hands of the Supreme Court
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/10/pennsylvania-late-ballots-supreme-court-alito.html
If the election does hang on those votes, which is far from impossible, how can they then make an unbiased ruling ?
The 7-day average on 20th October was 180 deaths, so we seem to be some way ahead of that part.
https://mobile.twitter.com/RP131/status/1321488845821665285
Similar to the median age of death from cancer.
Or the median age of death from heart disease.
Or the median age of death from all other diseases put together.
The majority of children who were hospitalised with covid had no co-morbidities; the most common comobidity of those who had one was asthma.
The "many of the were at deaths door" has been analysed and is mince; the median expectancy of those who died (taking into account co-morbidities, age, and sex) was between 10 and 13 years.
But it won’t get it.
Please show your arithmetic.
If 100,000 people per day get covid, how long does it take to get to 40,000,000 more infections?
Someone who can, please post on it.
Some teachers’ desks have pupils sat immediately in front of them and so Perspex screens have been put up around them.
Other than that, very good and clear. Only thing that threw me to start with was that it wasn't clear that those infected/not infected in mitigated scenarios were illustrated fairly randomly - e.g. with mask wearing I was trying to work out why particular people were claimed to get infected and others not.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/28/cant-let-dodgy-accounting-lead-us-disastrous-second-lockdown/
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/tracking-every-case-of-covid-19-in-canada-1.4852102