Categories
If the Democrats win the Presidency, the House and the Senate they’ll be in a position to make futur
If the Democrats win the Presidency, the House and the Senate they’ll be in a position to make future elections easier – politicalbetting.com
One of the oddities of US politics is that those who live in the capitol, Washington DC, are rated as second class citizens when it comes to elections. For they are unable to have voting representatives in the House and the Senate as is reflected in the slogan on car registration plates – see above.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
All European countries seem absolutely rubbish at going out and finding cases, all testing systems basically rely on people with symptoms booking a test which means there are at least 4.5 days where people are infectious and not isolating becusee they don't know if they have it. Coupled with rubbish isolation rates in general and we are where we are.
The top 8 nations by average IQ are:
1. Hong Kong (108)
2. Singapore (108)
3. South Korea (106)
4. China (105)
5. Japan (105)
6. Taiwan (105)
7. Iceland (101)
8. Macau (101)
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
That said, I think Puerto Rico is more logical and defensible. DC would be far more controversial as it is so small, and it feels like it cuts across its original constitutional intent as a federal capital, but Biden still might do it anyway.
While voter suppression has been a hallmark of the American right since the foundation of the Republic, practiced by Federalists, Whigs and Republicans (also Southern segregationist Democrats) during my lifetime the GOP has been WAY more restrained or at least subtle in deploying this strategy.
It is a measure of the desperation of Trumpsky AND the RNC that they are willing to got to unprecedented length carrying it out.
Keep in mind that millions of Republicans and GOP-leaners do NOT approve of the kind of shenanigans Trumpsky * RNC are currently employing to keep eligible voters from voting.
My own Daddy Dearest was a strong Republican supporter - but he would find these efforts at disenfranchisement to be FAR beyond the pale.
Which is why I think that the rampant, massive and shameless efforts at voter suppression by Trumpsky & RNC to be COUNTERPRODUCTIVE.
They are helping persuade conflicted Republicans that THIS is the year to vote Democratic, in whole or for part of their own ballot.
AND they are mobilizing Democrats and Independent-swing voters to Get Out and Vote these rascals OUT.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/business/economy/gdp-economy.html
BBC News - Coronavirus: Macron declares second national lockdown in France
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54716993
So, Year 11 and 13 with essential exams are in all the time.
Other year groups are staggered. So if Year 7 is in, Year 8 isn’t. Year 9 is in, year 10 and 12 aren’t. Then the following week, you swap.
Messy, and complicated, and obviously very far from ideal for all Sorts of reasons. However - and a big however - it would make it a hell of a lot easier to maintain distance and arrest the spread of the disease that way.
Plus, it would considerably ease the pressure on teachers, who as I and others have noted are bloody close to breaking point.
If the Lancet’s report is right (which would admittedly be a dramatic break with recent tradition, but it matches my anecdotal experience in the WM) any attempt at control without dealing with secondary schools at least is going to be a wasted effort - you will have a rampaging pandemic and a trashed economy.
So it has to be worth at least considering.
But the US economy is now contacting again, as a quick look at the initial jobless claims data will tell you.
Edit to add: that was two weeks ago's jobless claims I was referencing - this week's 787,0000, are better but still WAY worse than pre-pandemic. This is a good chart showing ongoing US job losses: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA
For example, I am happy to accept that Prime Ministerial Advisers are people with high IQs. But it appears that, in at least one case, their IQ didn't stop them doing things that, even if they were within the rules, were likely to increase the spread of the plague and just weren't on?
Although that might cause some technical issues.
(Yes, I understand, there are lots of difficulties to overcome with this, but it may be the least bad option).
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Liverpool
for example...
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=St. Helens
I would say while your idea has some mileage, the snag is that five weeks after going back from the six week break we’ll be back to square one and need another long break.
An alternative might be four weeks on, two weeks off to keep things under regular control, but it would be rather disjointed.
I feel like while Biden might not think about going extreme to mirror Trump tactics in the last 4 years, if the Democrats win big it will be hard to resist the temptation from others.
Cultural effects will probably be important for example.
Edit: Brits tend to be bloody minded don't they?
As I posted yesterday, I thought there was a good chance that, given the huge pressure the testing system is under, there would be an increase in false positives.
Seems I'm not alone. The pathologist Dr Clare Craig agrees:
"The laboratories have been under huge pressure to increase throughput whilst also increasing turnaround times. Any pathologist would predict a rise in errors in such a scenario, despite the best efforts of the technicians acting in complete good faith. The type of testing carried out for Covid can quite easily produce false positive results without exceptionally high levels of cleanliness to prevent cross contamination with frequent replacement of protective clothing and frequent cleaning of every area of the laboratory from bench to fridge handles. Any rise in errors causing increased false positives would inevitably lead to the mistaken belief that cases were on the rise."
https://lockdownsceptics.org/how-covid-deaths-are-over-counted/
Her article is an absolute belter. Raises serious questions over the stats for deaths from covid which are higher than they should be given the number who are very ill with covid.
"The only explanation for the significant divergence between the lack of severe cases and a rising death count is that the official statistics are relying on erroneous data."
Edit: This might explain Germany's low death rate?
One issue with DC statehood is, would it require a constitutional amendment? After all, the district (or if you prefer the future district) is referenced in US Constitution Article 1, Section 7.
Note that one option NOT much discussed, would be to eliminated the District of Columbia (but NOT the City of Washington) by congressional action to return it to the possession & jurisdiction of State of Maryland. Which is exactly what happened before the Civil War to the VIRGINIA portion of the original district (today Arlington & most of Alexandria).
Which would NOT result in two new Senators, but would give DC a voice in electing Maryland's Senators AND also representation in US House.
As for Puerto Rico, both US parties are on record as favoring statehood IF the people of PR support it via a clear election victory for a statehood referendum.
As for how the PR delegation might align within Congress. keep in mind that late 1950s Republicans in Congress generally opposed statehood for Alaska but supported statehood for Hawaii, while Democrats inclined the other way.
Why? Because both sides of the isle believed (on basis of territorial elections) that Alaska would vote Democratic while Hawaii would vote Republican.
BUT as we know know, things turned out just the opposite!
Beware of unintended consequences - remember devolution was going to secure Labour’s stronghold in Scotland for all eternity
Tier 4 it is then.
Because schools don't have the spare capacity to work with everyone in and a virus. The house of cards is already wobbling (one of mine had a week off for an emergency school deep clean and the other is lucky that the angel of covid hit other classes, not theirs) and it's going to get worse before it gets better.
With COVID and much reduced mileage, your insurance model looks mighty attractive.
France
14/10/20 22,591
21/10/20 26,676
28/10/20 36,437
Germany
14/10/20 6,063
21/10/20 10,457
28/10/20 16,044
Italy
14/10/20 7,331
21/10/20 15,198
28/10/20 24,991
Spain
14/10/20 13,670
21/10/20 16,973
28/10/20 19,675
UK
14/10/20 19,724
21/10/20 26,688
28/10/20 24,701
With the UK doing the most testing.
Whoever would have predicted that the UK would be the most successful this autumn.
https://twitter.com/Thomas_Sparrow/status/1321495572323438593
Perhaps that's all the fault of Dido Harding as well.
Or perhaps its pretty much impossible to get a successful track and trace in western countries.
If only Boris had followed the scientific advice, earlier (or Keir Starmer's for that matter).
That could work as well. Why is it not much discussed?
https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/north-easts-new-coronavirus-hotspots-19178126
The truth is, of course, all of them NEED to be in school full time. We just can’t do that and keep this fecking pathogen under control.
One of the odder things was the desire to minimise risk for lower risk people in the summer.
A few thousand more infections then wouldn't have strained resources like they are doing now.
Now if you want to argue we shouldn't have messed around with different Tiers and just gone for harsher restrictions across the board for extended periods, now that on the health side has more weight.
Saying we can just do two weeks and that will definitely sort it is intellectually dishonest.
However, separating out the motivation behind proposals, is it reasonable, is it justified, to add either Puerto Rico or DC to the Union as States? People may disagree on that, though SeaShantyIrish2 states both parties are supportive in principle (for PR anyway) if supported locally. So I am curious how you would, as I have little doubt you would, claim that such an action is f*cking with democracy in that scenario. Since you seem to regard any major change as unacceptable.
It's like the argument about adding more justices to the supreme court. It might well be a bad idea, but it is permissable so not quite the same as breaking the rules. Likewise, some people might want to create new states for partisan reasons, but it doesn't automatically follow that creating new states is wrong or that it is f*cking with democracy to do it.
Case of Texas is bit different, as statehood was achieved by treaty between US and Republic of Texas, ratified by US Senate - though House did go along. However, number of states (esp in New England) were opposed to Texas statehood, mainly because it meant expansion of slavery.
(Italy was worse, but that's expected)
If DC rejoined MD, it would bump MD up from 19th to 17th most populous state - leapfrogging Indiana and Missouri
Politicians’ job is to trade off between economics and health. Just “following the science” is only part of the story
Number of nations (Australia & Mexico for example) have capital districts more-or-less modeled after District of Columbia. BUT most nations - including United Kingdom and rest of Europe.
The range around those IQ figures of 2 Standard Deviations (30 IQ points) would mean that there would be little difference between countries. All have some geniuses and some noddies. Thats also ignoring the cultural and educational factors that mean IQ is a dubious concept in the first place.
You can either have a big hit on the economy and protect health...
or de-prioritise health... and get a big hit on the economy plus a lot more deaths.
At least with all the hand washing, mask wearing, social distancing and self isolation flu should be much reduced.
I have a friend who got a call from the NHS track and trace team, she decided that a person on the end of the phone wasn't qualified to tell her what to do, but because she doesn't have symptoms she can't get a test. Essentially she's not going to bother isolating, there's no incentive to do so and there is no way out of it and she doesn't know whether or not she has the virus. It's literally the worst of all worlds.
The whole system makes absolutely no sense at all, it is almost as if it is designed to be as disruptive as possible for those contacts who don't qualify for an NHS test because they don't have symptoms but are supposed to isolate on the say so of someone on the end of the phone.
New infections are increasing but haven't soared as they have in other countries.
But please feel free to provide data showing the UK doing worse
Regardless I'm still not in favour of an unsustainable lockdown. We've completely wasted the summer.
However, folks quickly figured out that new admission COULD upset the sectional balance in Congress between free states and slave states. Thus practice began of maintaining the balance by admitting one of each at about the same time.
Which was ok UNTIL it because clear that number of natural slave states was becoming limited, while number of potential free states was sure to grow (based on origins of new settlers). Which was one of the underlying causes of the Civil War.
In this context, note that the treaty between Republic of Texas & United States authorized the new Lone Star State to divide itself into IIRC as many as four (or maybe five) states; this was put in to win a few Southern votes in Congress. BUT although it's been talked about (and even voted on by Texans back in the 1960s, the idea has never gotten off the ground - mostly I think because Texans REALLY like being BIG.
But I do think Trump would win in a fight. His head could be cleaved from his shoulders and he would refuse to accept he had lost, calling it fake news.
Expensive? Yes- especially with the caseload being what it is. But probably worth it.
On a similar basis, the UK's cases almost tripled in one week, earlier:
28/09/20 4,662
05/10/20 12,594
It can be less disruptive to have symptoms than not.
I see that testing capacity has increased by approximately another 70k - hopefully this can be used to give tests to those possibly infected but not showing symptoms.
There's also the situation of those who have likely been infected previously but do not know.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4967780/#:~:text=The term borderline intellectual functioning,IQ between 70 and 85.
IMO it's a leftover of not having enough testing capacity when the policy was originally written. Back then we could only run 20k tests per day in hospitals, it wasnt feasible to get contacts tested. It is now and we should be giving these people priority slots in P2 testing so they get a next day appointment or someone visits to take a swab.