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If the Democrats win the Presidency, the House and the Senate they’ll be in a position to make futur

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited October 2020 in General
imageIf the Democrats win the Presidency, the House and the Senate they’ll be in a position to make future elections easier – politicalbetting.com

One of the oddities of US politics is that those who live in the capitol, Washington DC, are rated as second class citizens when it comes to elections. For they are unable to have voting representatives in the House and the Senate as is reflected in the slogan on car registration plates – see above.

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Comments

  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Possibly first.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 595
    If Puerto Rico becomes a state won't they have to give up their Olympic team?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    edited October 2020
    Maybe second as well - maybe not.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    tlg86 said:

    Those figures don't pass the sniff test. Either the number of deaths in Germany is too low or the number of positive tests in the UK is too low (I know there's a lag, but the trends have been similar in both countries).
    There's reason to believe that the UK testing system isn't picking up all the cases; both the ONS survey and the ZOE app put the true incidence in the UK about twice as high as Test'n'Trace does. Yes, the UK is testing lots of people, but it's still managing to miss lots.
    Sadly the infectious before symptomatic is the elephant in the room. Without that issue Covid would have gone the way of swine flu.
    No it isn't, the infectious pre-symptomatic period is 2.5 days out of 5, a good track and trace team can get test results back within the first 3 days of infection as has been shown all across developed nations in APAC. Our issue is that track and trace is basically a disaster here and only contacts 6/10 people and of those very few get a test and even fewer isolate. The key to breaking the isolation chain finding contacts asap, swabbing them and getting them test results overnight so they can isolate as well if they test positive.

    All European countries seem absolutely rubbish at going out and finding cases, all testing systems basically rely on people with symptoms booking a test which means there are at least 4.5 days where people are infectious and not isolating becusee they don't know if they have it. Coupled with rubbish isolation rates in general and we are where we are.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    Those figures don't pass the sniff test. Either the number of deaths in Germany is too low or the number of positive tests in the UK is too low (I know there's a lag, but the trends have been similar in both countries).
    There's reason to believe that the UK testing system isn't picking up all the cases; both the ONS survey and the ZOE app put the true incidence in the UK about twice as high as Test'n'Trace does. Yes, the UK is testing lots of people, but it's still managing to miss lots.
    Sadly the infectious before symptomatic is the elephant in the room. Without that issue Covid would have gone the way of swine flu.
    No it isn't, the infectious pre-symptomatic period is 2.5 days out of 5, a good track and trace team can get test results back within the first 3 days of infection as has been shown all across developed nations in APAC. Our issue is that track and trace is basically a disaster here and only contacts 6/10 people and of those very few get a test and even fewer isolate. The key to breaking the isolation chain finding contacts asap, swabbing them and getting them test results overnight so they can isolate as well if they test positive.

    All European countries seem absolutely rubbish at going out and finding cases, all testing systems basically rely on people with symptoms booking a test which means there are at least 4.5 days where people are infectious and not isolating becusee they don't know if they have it. Coupled with rubbish isolation rates in general and we are where we are.
    It may be basic IQ levels. That is to say, if you have a population which on average is basically smart enough for most people to wear masks, wash hands, isolate properly, obey rules of 6, not go to religious festivals, etc, then you will get a good covid outcome.



    The top 8 nations by average IQ are:

    1. Hong Kong (108)

    2. Singapore (108)

    3. South Korea (106)

    4. China (105)

    5. Japan (105)

    6. Taiwan (105)

    7. Iceland (101)

    8. Macau (101)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    Trump still needs a 2.6% swingback to win the election according to 538's projections. Not much change from a week ago.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,284
    Is the process for adding a state set out in the US constitution?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Is the process for adding a state set out in the US constitution?

    Yes. It appears to pretty much be within Congress's gift. But, notwithstanding the political advantages to the Democrats, there do appear to be potential downsides for the residents of the prospective states themselves.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038
    The Democrats aren't going to take any prisoners if they win all three branches of the federal Government.

    That said, I think Puerto Rico is more logical and defensible. DC would be far more controversial as it is so small, and it feels like it cuts across its original constitutional intent as a federal capital, but Biden still might do it anyway.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Anyone with $550 can now buy 25 rapid Covid antigen tests: https://www.covidtests.shop/product/covid-19-antigen-test/

  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    Fpt: “kumquat “ ? Seriously ?
  • FPT

    While voter suppression has been a hallmark of the American right since the foundation of the Republic, practiced by Federalists, Whigs and Republicans (also Southern segregationist Democrats) during my lifetime the GOP has been WAY more restrained or at least subtle in deploying this strategy.

    It is a measure of the desperation of Trumpsky AND the RNC that they are willing to got to unprecedented length carrying it out.

    Keep in mind that millions of Republicans and GOP-leaners do NOT approve of the kind of shenanigans Trumpsky * RNC are currently employing to keep eligible voters from voting.

    My own Daddy Dearest was a strong Republican supporter - but he would find these efforts at disenfranchisement to be FAR beyond the pale.

    Which is why I think that the rampant, massive and shameless efforts at voter suppression by Trumpsky & RNC to be COUNTERPRODUCTIVE.

    They are helping persuade conflicted Republicans that THIS is the year to vote Democratic, in whole or for part of their own ballot.

    AND they are mobilizing Democrats and Independent-swing voters to Get Out and Vote these rascals OUT.
  • The US will release the best GDP figures ever tomorrow according to the NYTimes. Of course it still means the economy is bad etc. etc.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/business/economy/gdp-economy.html
  • Toooo confusing....

    BBC News - Coronavirus: Macron declares second national lockdown in France
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54716993
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768
    FPT

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    LadyG said:
    "Huge pressure" from who?

    I mean, on the back of "successful" Germany maybe, but "country who have arguably made more of a pigs ear of it than we have" France?
    Now Mutti Angela has done the unpleasant but (let's be blunt) necessary thing, everyone else in Europe has permission to do the same. Macron has seized to opportunity; can Johnson?
    I just think it's all pointless if you don't shut schools. What's the point in an economically catastrophic lockdown, when you are sending children off to superspreader events 5 days a week?
    We cannot shut schools. I'd shut everything else before that.

    This year was a disaster for children that will affect many for their whole lives.

    We cannot risk that again. Even if we have to take 1,000 deaths a day.
    If we have a very bad winter, it may prove to have been a mistake to shut schools initially. If that's the case, it would have been better for those who are not at high risk of serious disease to infect each other during the summer when it was more feasible to minimise the spread to people who are more at risk.
    The other option - and it should be considered as a possibility - is that we start staggering learning.

    So, Year 11 and 13 with essential exams are in all the time.

    Other year groups are staggered. So if Year 7 is in, Year 8 isn’t. Year 9 is in, year 10 and 12 aren’t. Then the following week, you swap.

    Messy, and complicated, and obviously very far from ideal for all Sorts of reasons. However - and a big however - it would make it a hell of a lot easier to maintain distance and arrest the spread of the disease that way.

    Plus, it would considerably ease the pressure on teachers, who as I and others have noted are bloody close to breaking point.

    If the Lancet’s report is right (which would admittedly be a dramatic break with recent tradition, but it matches my anecdotal experience in the WM) any attempt at control without dealing with secondary schools at least is going to be a wasted effort - you will have a rampaging pandemic and a trashed economy.

    So it has to be worth at least considering.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    edited October 2020

    The US will release the best GDP figures ever tomorrow according to the NYTimes. Of course it still means the economy is bad etc. etc.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/business/economy/gdp-economy.html

    Well yes, of course. 3Q numbers from the UK will almost certainly be the best ever too.

    But the US economy is now contacting again, as a quick look at the initial jobless claims data will tell you.

    Edit to add: that was two weeks ago's jobless claims I was referencing - this week's 787,0000, are better but still WAY worse than pre-pandemic. This is a good chart showing ongoing US job losses: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    Those figures don't pass the sniff test. Either the number of deaths in Germany is too low or the number of positive tests in the UK is too low (I know there's a lag, but the trends have been similar in both countries).
    There's reason to believe that the UK testing system isn't picking up all the cases; both the ONS survey and the ZOE app put the true incidence in the UK about twice as high as Test'n'Trace does. Yes, the UK is testing lots of people, but it's still managing to miss lots.
    Sadly the infectious before symptomatic is the elephant in the room. Without that issue Covid would have gone the way of swine flu.
    No it isn't, the infectious pre-symptomatic period is 2.5 days out of 5, a good track and trace team can get test results back within the first 3 days of infection as has been shown all across developed nations in APAC. Our issue is that track and trace is basically a disaster here and only contacts 6/10 people and of those very few get a test and even fewer isolate. The key to breaking the isolation chain finding contacts asap, swabbing them and getting them test results overnight so they can isolate as well if they test positive.

    All European countries seem absolutely rubbish at going out and finding cases, all testing systems basically rely on people with symptoms booking a test which means there are at least 4.5 days where people are infectious and not isolating becusee they don't know if they have it. Coupled with rubbish isolation rates in general and we are where we are.
    Tbf your reply doesn’t refute my point, it’s a comment on what we should be doing to overcome the issue. Swine flu was only infectious when symptomatic. Many people who feel fine are spreading the virus.
  • LadyG said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    Those figures don't pass the sniff test. Either the number of deaths in Germany is too low or the number of positive tests in the UK is too low (I know there's a lag, but the trends have been similar in both countries).
    There's reason to believe that the UK testing system isn't picking up all the cases; both the ONS survey and the ZOE app put the true incidence in the UK about twice as high as Test'n'Trace does. Yes, the UK is testing lots of people, but it's still managing to miss lots.
    Sadly the infectious before symptomatic is the elephant in the room. Without that issue Covid would have gone the way of swine flu.
    No it isn't, the infectious pre-symptomatic period is 2.5 days out of 5, a good track and trace team can get test results back within the first 3 days of infection as has been shown all across developed nations in APAC. Our issue is that track and trace is basically a disaster here and only contacts 6/10 people and of those very few get a test and even fewer isolate. The key to breaking the isolation chain finding contacts asap, swabbing them and getting them test results overnight so they can isolate as well if they test positive.

    All European countries seem absolutely rubbish at going out and finding cases, all testing systems basically rely on people with symptoms booking a test which means there are at least 4.5 days where people are infectious and not isolating becusee they don't know if they have it. Coupled with rubbish isolation rates in general and we are where we are.
    It may be basic IQ levels. That is to say, if you have a population which on average is basically smart enough for most people to wear masks, wash hands, isolate properly, obey rules of 6, not go to religious festivals, etc, then you will get a good covid outcome.



    The top 8 nations by average IQ are:

    1. Hong Kong (108)

    2. Singapore (108)

    3. South Korea (106)

    4. China (105)

    5. Japan (105)

    6. Taiwan (105)

    7. Iceland (101)

    8. Macau (101)
    Is it IQ, or is it "ability not to be a selfish git"? The kind of common decency that isn't all that common?

    For example, I am happy to accept that Prime Ministerial Advisers are people with high IQs. But it appears that, in at least one case, their IQ didn't stop them doing things that, even if they were within the rules, were likely to increase the spread of the plague and just weren't on?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Is the process for adding a state set out in the US constitution?

    I thought the Constitution essentially just says that new states can join, so long as the other states agree. I'd presume a referendum in the area in question would be done, thesedays at least.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768

    The Democrats aren't going to take any prisoners if they win all three branches of the federal Government.

    That said, I think Puerto Rico is more logical and defensible. DC would be far more controversial as it is so small, and it feels like it cuts across its original constitutional intent as a federal capital, but Biden still might do it anyway.

    Surely the obvious compromise is to give D.C. its own Representatives, not part of a state delegation, but they vote for senators in Maryland?

    Although that might cause some technical issues.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    ydoethur said:

    FPT

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    LadyG said:
    "Huge pressure" from who?

    I mean, on the back of "successful" Germany maybe, but "country who have arguably made more of a pigs ear of it than we have" France?
    Now Mutti Angela has done the unpleasant but (let's be blunt) necessary thing, everyone else in Europe has permission to do the same. Macron has seized to opportunity; can Johnson?
    I just think it's all pointless if you don't shut schools. What's the point in an economically catastrophic lockdown, when you are sending children off to superspreader events 5 days a week?
    We cannot shut schools. I'd shut everything else before that.

    This year was a disaster for children that will affect many for their whole lives.

    We cannot risk that again. Even if we have to take 1,000 deaths a day.
    If we have a very bad winter, it may prove to have been a mistake to shut schools initially. If that's the case, it would have been better for those who are not at high risk of serious disease to infect each other during the summer when it was more feasible to minimise the spread to people who are more at risk.
    The other option - and it should be considered as a possibility - is that we start staggering learning.

    So, Year 11 and 13 with essential exams are in all the time.

    Other year groups are staggered. So if Year 7 is in, Year 8 isn’t. Year 9 is in, year 10 and 12 aren’t. Then the following week, you swap.

    Messy, and complicated, and obviously very far from ideal for all Sorts of reasons. However - and a big however - it would make it a hell of a lot easier to maintain distance and arrest the spread of the disease that way.

    Plus, it would considerably ease the pressure on teachers, who as I and others have noted are bloody close to breaking point.

    If the Lancet’s report is right (which would admittedly be a dramatic break with recent tradition, but it matches my anecdotal experience in the WM) any attempt at control without dealing with secondary schools at least is going to be a wasted effort - you will have a rampaging pandemic and a trashed economy.

    So it has to be worth at least considering.
    Or switch the summer & winter holidays. Schools have a long break this winter, & they work through the summer.

    (Yes, I understand, there are lots of difficulties to overcome with this, but it may be the least bad option).
  • LadyG said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    Those figures don't pass the sniff test. Either the number of deaths in Germany is too low or the number of positive tests in the UK is too low (I know there's a lag, but the trends have been similar in both countries).
    There's reason to believe that the UK testing system isn't picking up all the cases; both the ONS survey and the ZOE app put the true incidence in the UK about twice as high as Test'n'Trace does. Yes, the UK is testing lots of people, but it's still managing to miss lots.
    Sadly the infectious before symptomatic is the elephant in the room. Without that issue Covid would have gone the way of swine flu.
    No it isn't, the infectious pre-symptomatic period is 2.5 days out of 5, a good track and trace team can get test results back within the first 3 days of infection as has been shown all across developed nations in APAC. Our issue is that track and trace is basically a disaster here and only contacts 6/10 people and of those very few get a test and even fewer isolate. The key to breaking the isolation chain finding contacts asap, swabbing them and getting them test results overnight so they can isolate as well if they test positive.

    All European countries seem absolutely rubbish at going out and finding cases, all testing systems basically rely on people with symptoms booking a test which means there are at least 4.5 days where people are infectious and not isolating becusee they don't know if they have it. Coupled with rubbish isolation rates in general and we are where we are.
    It may be basic IQ levels. That is to say, if you have a population which on average is basically smart enough for most people to wear masks, wash hands, isolate properly, obey rules of 6, not go to religious festivals, etc, then you will get a good covid outcome.



    The top 8 nations by average IQ are:

    1. Hong Kong (108)

    2. Singapore (108)

    3. South Korea (106)

    4. China (105)

    5. Japan (105)

    6. Taiwan (105)

    7. Iceland (101)

    8. Macau (101)
    IQ, or the social stigma of losing face in many Asian countries by being an inconsiderate arsehole?
  • ManchesterKurtManchesterKurt Posts: 892
    edited October 2020
    alex_ said:
    Not sure that is replicated across the other boroughs that are in the city region though....

    for example...

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=St. Helens
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768

    ydoethur said:

    FPT

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    LadyG said:
    "Huge pressure" from who?

    I mean, on the back of "successful" Germany maybe, but "country who have arguably made more of a pigs ear of it than we have" France?
    Now Mutti Angela has done the unpleasant but (let's be blunt) necessary thing, everyone else in Europe has permission to do the same. Macron has seized to opportunity; can Johnson?
    I just think it's all pointless if you don't shut schools. What's the point in an economically catastrophic lockdown, when you are sending children off to superspreader events 5 days a week?
    We cannot shut schools. I'd shut everything else before that.

    This year was a disaster for children that will affect many for their whole lives.

    We cannot risk that again. Even if we have to take 1,000 deaths a day.
    If we have a very bad winter, it may prove to have been a mistake to shut schools initially. If that's the case, it would have been better for those who are not at high risk of serious disease to infect each other during the summer when it was more feasible to minimise the spread to people who are more at risk.
    The other option - and it should be considered as a possibility - is that we start staggering learning.

    So, Year 11 and 13 with essential exams are in all the time.

    Other year groups are staggered. So if Year 7 is in, Year 8 isn’t. Year 9 is in, year 10 and 12 aren’t. Then the following week, you swap.

    Messy, and complicated, and obviously very far from ideal for all Sorts of reasons. However - and a big however - it would make it a hell of a lot easier to maintain distance and arrest the spread of the disease that way.

    Plus, it would considerably ease the pressure on teachers, who as I and others have noted are bloody close to breaking point.

    If the Lancet’s report is right (which would admittedly be a dramatic break with recent tradition, but it matches my anecdotal experience in the WM) any attempt at control without dealing with secondary schools at least is going to be a wasted effort - you will have a rampaging pandemic and a trashed economy.

    So it has to be worth at least considering.
    Or switch the summer & winter holidays. Schools have a long break this winter, & they work through the summer.

    (Yes, I understand, there are lots of difficulties to overcome with this, but it may be the least bad option).
    We’re in a scenario where all options are bad until we get an effective vaccine.

    I would say while your idea has some mileage, the snag is that five weeks after going back from the six week break we’ll be back to square one and need another long break.

    An alternative might be four weeks on, two weeks off to keep things under regular control, but it would be rather disjointed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    The Democrats aren't going to take any prisoners if they win all three branches of the federal Government.

    That said, I think Puerto Rico is more logical and defensible. DC would be far more controversial as it is so small, and it feels like it cuts across its original constitutional intent as a federal capital, but Biden still might do it anyway.

    Having a voting representative for DC might be a less controversial first step? And voting reps for the territories?

    I feel like while Biden might not think about going extreme to mirror Trump tactics in the last 4 years, if the Democrats win big it will be hard to resist the temptation from others.
  • Macron says the second wave likely to be worse than the first in France....joy of joys. Getting those bloody vaccine trials running across Europe....
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited October 2020
    LadyG said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    Those figures don't pass the sniff test. Either the number of deaths in Germany is too low or the number of positive tests in the UK is too low (I know there's a lag, but the trends have been similar in both countries).
    There's reason to believe that the UK testing system isn't picking up all the cases; both the ONS survey and the ZOE app put the true incidence in the UK about twice as high as Test'n'Trace does. Yes, the UK is testing lots of people, but it's still managing to miss lots.
    Sadly the infectious before symptomatic is the elephant in the room. Without that issue Covid would have gone the way of swine flu.
    No it isn't, the infectious pre-symptomatic period is 2.5 days out of 5, a good track and trace team can get test results back within the first 3 days of infection as has been shown all across developed nations in APAC. Our issue is that track and trace is basically a disaster here and only contacts 6/10 people and of those very few get a test and even fewer isolate. The key to breaking the isolation chain finding contacts asap, swabbing them and getting them test results overnight so they can isolate as well if they test positive.

    All European countries seem absolutely rubbish at going out and finding cases, all testing systems basically rely on people with symptoms booking a test which means there are at least 4.5 days where people are infectious and not isolating becusee they don't know if they have it. Coupled with rubbish isolation rates in general and we are where we are.
    It may be basic IQ levels. That is to say, if you have a population which on average is basically smart enough for most people to wear masks, wash hands, isolate properly, obey rules of 6, not go to religious festivals, etc, then you will get a good covid outcome.



    The top 8 nations by average IQ are:

    1. Hong Kong (108)

    2. Singapore (108)

    3. South Korea (106)

    4. China (105)

    5. Japan (105)

    6. Taiwan (105)

    7. Iceland (101)

    8. Macau (101)
    The slight spread of those numbers, all very near 100, are pretty well within the noise level.
    Cultural effects will probably be important for example.
    Edit: Brits tend to be bloody minded don't they?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    kle4 said:

    The Democrats aren't going to take any prisoners if they win all three branches of the federal Government.

    That said, I think Puerto Rico is more logical and defensible. DC would be far more controversial as it is so small, and it feels like it cuts across its original constitutional intent as a federal capital, but Biden still might do it anyway.

    Having a voting representative for DC might be a less controversial first step? And voting reps for the territories?

    I feel like while Biden might not think about going extreme to mirror Trump tactics in the last 4 years, if the Democrats win big it will be hard to resist the temptation from others.
    Eleanor Holmes Norton will be pleased to get a vote, but I don't think she'll want to stop at that.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,405
    alex_ said:
    Encouraging data. Let's hope that Tier 3 does the trick.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    FPT:

    As I posted yesterday, I thought there was a good chance that, given the huge pressure the testing system is under, there would be an increase in false positives.

    Seems I'm not alone. The pathologist Dr Clare Craig agrees:

    "The laboratories have been under huge pressure to increase throughput whilst also increasing turnaround times. Any pathologist would predict a rise in errors in such a scenario, despite the best efforts of the technicians acting in complete good faith. The type of testing carried out for Covid can quite easily produce false positive results without exceptionally high levels of cleanliness to prevent cross contamination with frequent replacement of protective clothing and frequent cleaning of every area of the laboratory from bench to fridge handles. Any rise in errors causing increased false positives would inevitably lead to the mistaken belief that cases were on the rise."

    https://lockdownsceptics.org/how-covid-deaths-are-over-counted/

    Her article is an absolute belter. Raises serious questions over the stats for deaths from covid which are higher than they should be given the number who are very ill with covid.

    "The only explanation for the significant divergence between the lack of severe cases and a rising death count is that the official statistics are relying on erroneous data."

    Edit: This might explain Germany's low death rate?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044

    alex_ said:
    Encouraging data. Let's hope that Tier 3 does the trick.
    Well, if its like Nottingham then the case numbers were dropping like a stone days and days before Tier 3 was introduced.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited October 2020
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    LadyG said:
    "Huge pressure" from who?

    I mean, on the back of "successful" Germany maybe, but "country who have arguably made more of a pigs ear of it than we have" France?
    Now Mutti Angela has done the unpleasant but (let's be blunt) necessary thing, everyone else in Europe has permission to do the same. Macron has seized to opportunity; can Johnson?
    I just think it's all pointless if you don't shut schools. What's the point in an economically catastrophic lockdown, when you are sending children off to superspreader events 5 days a week?
    We cannot shut schools. I'd shut everything else before that.

    This year was a disaster for children that will affect many for their whole lives.

    We cannot risk that again. Even if we have to take 1,000 deaths a day.
    If we have a very bad winter, it may prove to have been a mistake to shut schools initially. If that's the case, it would have been better for those who are not at high risk of serious disease to infect each other during the summer when it was more feasible to minimise the spread to people who are more at risk.
    The other option - and it should be considered as a possibility - is that we start staggering learning.

    So, Year 11 and 13 with essential exams are in all the time.

    Other year groups are staggered. So if Year 7 is in, Year 8 isn’t. Year 9 is in, year 10 and 12 aren’t. Then the following week, you swap.

    Messy, and complicated, and obviously very far from ideal for all Sorts of reasons. However - and a big however - it would make it a hell of a lot easier to maintain distance and arrest the spread of the disease that way.

    Plus, it would considerably ease the pressure on teachers, who as I and others have noted are bloody close to breaking point.

    If the Lancet’s report is right (which would admittedly be a dramatic break with recent tradition, but it matches my anecdotal experience in the WM) any attempt at control without dealing with secondary schools at least is going to be a wasted effort - you will have a rampaging pandemic and a trashed economy.

    So it has to be worth at least considering.
    Or switch the summer & winter holidays. Schools have a long break this winter, & they work through the summer.

    (Yes, I understand, there are lots of difficulties to overcome with this, but it may be the least bad option).
    We’re in a scenario where all options are bad until we get an effective vaccine.

    I would say while your idea has some mileage, the snag is that five weeks after going back from the six week break we’ll be back to square one and need another long break.

    An alternative might be four weeks on, two weeks off to keep things under regular control, but it would be rather disjointed.
    All the options have been bad since the start of the crisis.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    alex_ said:
    Encouraging data. Let's hope that Tier 3 does the trick.
    That is encouraging. Dear God let us avoid a proper lockdown.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,405

    alex_ said:
    Encouraging data. Let's hope that Tier 3 does the trick.
    Or it might just be students not being so daft.
  • LadyG said:

    alex_ said:
    Encouraging data. Let's hope that Tier 3 does the trick.
    That is encouraging. Dear God let us avoid a proper lockdown.
    less good in other areas in tier 3 for the same amount of time but missing the students.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286

    The Democrats aren't going to take any prisoners if they win all three branches of the federal Government.

    That said, I think Puerto Rico is more logical and defensible. DC would be far more controversial as it is so small, and it feels like it cuts across its original constitutional intent as a federal capital, but Biden still might do it anyway.

    Biden is too conservative to do anything like that, unless he's pressured into it by other people.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768

    alex_ said:
    Encouraging data. Let's hope that Tier 3 does the trick.
    Or it might just be students not being so daft.
    Or, having all had it, dropping off the figures.
  • The Democrats aren't going to take any prisoners if they win all three branches of the federal Government.

    That said, I think Puerto Rico is more logical and defensible. DC would be far more controversial as it is so small, and it feels like it cuts across its original constitutional intent as a federal capital, but Biden still might do it anyway.

    District of Columbia has larger population than several states, and IIRC as a would be entitled to more than one House member.

    One issue with DC statehood is, would it require a constitutional amendment? After all, the district (or if you prefer the future district) is referenced in US Constitution Article 1, Section 7.

    Note that one option NOT much discussed, would be to eliminated the District of Columbia (but NOT the City of Washington) by congressional action to return it to the possession & jurisdiction of State of Maryland. Which is exactly what happened before the Civil War to the VIRGINIA portion of the original district (today Arlington & most of Alexandria).

    Which would NOT result in two new Senators, but would give DC a voice in electing Maryland's Senators AND also representation in US House.

    As for Puerto Rico, both US parties are on record as favoring statehood IF the people of PR support it via a clear election victory for a statehood referendum.

    As for how the PR delegation might align within Congress. keep in mind that late 1950s Republicans in Congress generally opposed statehood for Alaska but supported statehood for Hawaii, while Democrats inclined the other way.

    Why? Because both sides of the isle believed (on basis of territorial elections) that Alaska would vote Democratic while Hawaii would vote Republican.

    BUT as we know know, things turned out just the opposite!
  • The US will release the best GDP figures ever tomorrow according to the NYTimes. Of course it still means the economy is bad etc. etc.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/business/economy/gdp-economy.html

    What is the government budget deficit?
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    Macron says the second wave likely to be worse than the first in France....joy of joys. Getting those bloody vaccine trials running across Europe....

    He said France would see 400,000 dead by Spring if he didn't do this
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    It’s funny how we get approving noises about ultra partisan ways to fuck with democracy when it benefits the Democrats.

    Beware of unintended consequences - remember devolution was going to secure Labour’s stronghold in Scotland for all eternity
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    Super O/T if any of our German residents are around: I'm selling off my old vinyl LPs. The British ones seem worth the effort - old Beatles, Abba etc. worth up to £30 each at my local shops - I have one of Agentha's pre-Abba days which might have curiosity value. But I've also got quite a few German70s/80s pop LPs with people like Mixed Emotions, Nicole and Roland Kaiser. Is there a link to a German firm who buys that sort of thing?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,405

    alex_ said:
    Encouraging data. Let's hope that Tier 3 does the trick.
    Well, if its like Nottingham then the case numbers were dropping like a stone days and days before Tier 3 was introduced.
    Yes, students distorting the figures.

    Tier 4 it is then.
  • ydoethur said:

    FPT

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    LadyG said:
    "Huge pressure" from who?

    I mean, on the back of "successful" Germany maybe, but "country who have arguably made more of a pigs ear of it than we have" France?
    Now Mutti Angela has done the unpleasant but (let's be blunt) necessary thing, everyone else in Europe has permission to do the same. Macron has seized to opportunity; can Johnson?
    I just think it's all pointless if you don't shut schools. What's the point in an economically catastrophic lockdown, when you are sending children off to superspreader events 5 days a week?
    We cannot shut schools. I'd shut everything else before that.

    This year was a disaster for children that will affect many for their whole lives.

    We cannot risk that again. Even if we have to take 1,000 deaths a day.
    If we have a very bad winter, it may prove to have been a mistake to shut schools initially. If that's the case, it would have been better for those who are not at high risk of serious disease to infect each other during the summer when it was more feasible to minimise the spread to people who are more at risk.
    The other option - and it should be considered as a possibility - is that we start staggering learning.

    So, Year 11 and 13 with essential exams are in all the time.

    Other year groups are staggered. So if Year 7 is in, Year 8 isn’t. Year 9 is in, year 10 and 12 aren’t. Then the following week, you swap.

    Messy, and complicated, and obviously very far from ideal for all Sorts of reasons. However - and a big however - it would make it a hell of a lot easier to maintain distance and arrest the spread of the disease that way.

    Plus, it would considerably ease the pressure on teachers, who as I and others have noted are bloody close to breaking point.

    If the Lancet’s report is right (which would admittedly be a dramatic break with recent tradition, but it matches my anecdotal experience in the WM) any attempt at control without dealing with secondary schools at least is going to be a wasted effort - you will have a rampaging pandemic and a trashed economy.

    So it has to be worth at least considering.
    The other thing that may need considering (given that there's no good solution before a vaccine) is who needs to be in school full time (which might be as much about social need as anything) and who is tolerably safe to be sent home with work packs and regular check-ins? Anything to reduce the occupancy of school buildings.

    Because schools don't have the spare capacity to work with everyone in and a virus. The house of cards is already wobbling (one of mine had a week off for an emergency school deep clean and the other is lucky that the angel of covid hit other classes, not theirs) and it's going to get worse before it gets better.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    @rcs1000 Was just on the www.just.insure website. Are you currently just providing insurance in Arizona? If so, do you have plans to expand into MD anytime soon?

    With COVID and much reduced mileage, your insurance model looks mighty attractive.
  • Looking at trends in positive cases:

    France
    14/10/20 22,591
    21/10/20 26,676
    28/10/20 36,437

    Germany
    14/10/20 6,063
    21/10/20 10,457
    28/10/20 16,044

    Italy
    14/10/20 7,331
    21/10/20 15,198
    28/10/20 24,991

    Spain
    14/10/20 13,670
    21/10/20 16,973
    28/10/20 19,675

    UK
    14/10/20 19,724
    21/10/20 26,688
    28/10/20 24,701

    With the UK doing the most testing.

    Whoever would have predicted that the UK would be the most successful this autumn.
  • Looks like Germany's track and trace is struggling:

    https://twitter.com/Thomas_Sparrow/status/1321495572323438593

    Perhaps that's all the fault of Dido Harding as well.

    Or perhaps its pretty much impossible to get a successful track and trace in western countries.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,284
    LadyG said:

    alex_ said:
    Encouraging data. Let's hope that Tier 3 does the trick.
    That is encouraging. Dear God let us avoid a proper lockdown.
    We are not going to avoid a second lock-down. We missed the chance for a short circuit-breaker a couple of weeks ago and now face another extended lock-down.

    If only Boris had followed the scientific advice, earlier (or Keir Starmer's for that matter).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768

    Note that one option NOT much discussed, would be to eliminated the District of Columbia (but NOT the City of Washington) by congressional action to return it to the possession & jurisdiction of State of Maryland. Which is exactly what happened before the Civil War to the VIRGINIA portion of the original district (today Arlington & most of Alexandria).

    You mean, just the White House and the Capitol etc in Washington outside Maryland, with no permanent residents denied a vote?

    That could work as well. Why is it not much discussed?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    alex_ said:
    Not sure that is replicated across the other boroughs that are in the city region though....

    for example...

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=St. Helens
    Similar is happening up here. Cases down in central Newcastle (students?) But rising in the outer suburbs and estates.

    https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/north-easts-new-coronavirus-hotspots-19178126
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768

    ydoethur said:

    FPT

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    LadyG said:
    "Huge pressure" from who?

    I mean, on the back of "successful" Germany maybe, but "country who have arguably made more of a pigs ear of it than we have" France?
    Now Mutti Angela has done the unpleasant but (let's be blunt) necessary thing, everyone else in Europe has permission to do the same. Macron has seized to opportunity; can Johnson?
    I just think it's all pointless if you don't shut schools. What's the point in an economically catastrophic lockdown, when you are sending children off to superspreader events 5 days a week?
    We cannot shut schools. I'd shut everything else before that.

    This year was a disaster for children that will affect many for their whole lives.

    We cannot risk that again. Even if we have to take 1,000 deaths a day.
    If we have a very bad winter, it may prove to have been a mistake to shut schools initially. If that's the case, it would have been better for those who are not at high risk of serious disease to infect each other during the summer when it was more feasible to minimise the spread to people who are more at risk.
    The other option - and it should be considered as a possibility - is that we start staggering learning.

    So, Year 11 and 13 with essential exams are in all the time.

    Other year groups are staggered. So if Year 7 is in, Year 8 isn’t. Year 9 is in, year 10 and 12 aren’t. Then the following week, you swap.

    Messy, and complicated, and obviously very far from ideal for all Sorts of reasons. However - and a big however - it would make it a hell of a lot easier to maintain distance and arrest the spread of the disease that way.

    Plus, it would considerably ease the pressure on teachers, who as I and others have noted are bloody close to breaking point.

    If the Lancet’s report is right (which would admittedly be a dramatic break with recent tradition, but it matches my anecdotal experience in the WM) any attempt at control without dealing with secondary schools at least is going to be a wasted effort - you will have a rampaging pandemic and a trashed economy.

    So it has to be worth at least considering.
    The other thing that may need considering (given that there's no good solution before a vaccine) is who needs to be in school full time (which might be as much about social need as anything) and who is tolerably safe to be sent home with work packs and regular check-ins? Anything to reduce the occupancy of school buildings.

    Because schools don't have the spare capacity to work with everyone in and a virus. The house of cards is already wobbling (one of mine had a week off for an emergency school deep clean and the other is lucky that the angel of covid hit other classes, not theirs) and it's going to get worse before it gets better.
    That’s also true. But thinking from my own experience, I think there would be an issue with saying some are in all the time and some are effectively in for none of it. I can see how that would cause many ructions.

    The truth is, of course, all of them NEED to be in school full time. We just can’t do that and keep this fecking pathogen under control.
  • FPT:

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    LadyG said:
    "Huge pressure" from who?

    I mean, on the back of "successful" Germany maybe, but "country who have arguably made more of a pigs ear of it than we have" France?
    Now Mutti Angela has done the unpleasant but (let's be blunt) necessary thing, everyone else in Europe has permission to do the same. Macron has seized to opportunity; can Johnson?
    I just think it's all pointless if you don't shut schools. What's the point in an economically catastrophic lockdown, when you are sending children off to superspreader events 5 days a week?
    We cannot shut schools. I'd shut everything else before that.

    This year was a disaster for children that will affect many for their whole lives.

    We cannot risk that again. Even if we have to take 1,000 deaths a day.
    If we have a very bad winter, it may prove to have been a mistake to shut schools initially. If that's the case, it would have been better for those who are not at high risk of serious disease to infect each other during the summer when it was more feasible to minimise the spread to people who are more at risk.
    Indeed.

    One of the odder things was the desire to minimise risk for lower risk people in the summer.

    A few thousand more infections then wouldn't have strained resources like they are doing now.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited October 2020

    LadyG said:

    alex_ said:
    Encouraging data. Let's hope that Tier 3 does the trick.
    That is encouraging. Dear God let us avoid a proper lockdown.
    We are not going to avoid a second lock-down. We missed the chance for a short circuit-breaker a couple of weeks ago and now face another extended lock-down.

    If only Boris had followed the scientific advice, earlier (or Keir Starmer's for that matter).
    How many times...2 weeks isn't long enough...and the egg heads modelling on this was a joke....follow8ng the "science", when it says somewhere between 800 and 107k lives will be saved isn't following decent science. its why Scotland have already had to extend and most countries start at a month minimum.

    Now if you want to argue we shouldn't have messed around with different Tiers and just gone for harsher restrictions across the board for extended periods, now that on the health side has more weight.

    Saying we can just do two weeks and that will definitely sort it is intellectually dishonest.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Charles said:

    It’s funny how we get approving noises about ultra partisan ways to fuck with democracy when it benefits the Democrats.

    Beware of unintended consequences - remember devolution was going to secure Labour’s stronghold in Scotland for all eternity

    There is something in the point that just because A messes with the system to favour themselves, it does not mean B should mess with their system to favour themselves. Democrats should be careful not to turn into their enemy once the boot is on the other foot.

    However, separating out the motivation behind proposals, is it reasonable, is it justified, to add either Puerto Rico or DC to the Union as States? People may disagree on that, though SeaShantyIrish2 states both parties are supportive in principle (for PR anyway) if supported locally. So I am curious how you would, as I have little doubt you would, claim that such an action is f*cking with democracy in that scenario. Since you seem to regard any major change as unacceptable.

    It's like the argument about adding more justices to the supreme court. It might well be a bad idea, but it is permissable so not quite the same as breaking the rules. Likewise, some people might want to create new states for partisan reasons, but it doesn't automatically follow that creating new states is wrong or that it is f*cking with democracy to do it.
  • kle4 said:

    Is the process for adding a state set out in the US constitution?

    I thought the Constitution essentially just says that new states can join, so long as the other states agree. I'd presume a referendum in the area in question would be done, thesedays at least.
    You are wrong in saying "so long as the other states agree". Was argued at time of Louisiana Purchase that only way new states could be created from the newly acquired territory was if all the existing states gave their consent. BUT this notion was defeated, and statehood depends on Act of Congress, which requires majority of both Houses AND absence of presidential veto but NOT unanimous consent by existing states.

    Case of Texas is bit different, as statehood was achieved by treaty between US and Republic of Texas, ratified by US Senate - though House did go along. However, number of states (esp in New England) were opposed to Texas statehood, mainly because it meant expansion of slavery.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    Looking at trends in positive cases:

    France
    14/10/20 22,591
    21/10/20 26,676
    28/10/20 36,437

    Germany
    14/10/20 6,063
    21/10/20 10,457
    28/10/20 16,044

    Italy
    14/10/20 7,331
    21/10/20 15,198
    28/10/20 24,991

    Spain
    14/10/20 13,670
    21/10/20 16,973
    28/10/20 19,675

    UK
    14/10/20 19,724
    21/10/20 26,688
    28/10/20 24,701

    With the UK doing the most testing.

    Whoever would have predicted that the UK would be the most successful this autumn.

    That German score is quite something. It tripled in two weeks. Jeez

    (Italy was worse, but that's expected)
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328

    The Democrats aren't going to take any prisoners if they win all three branches of the federal Government.

    That said, I think Puerto Rico is more logical and defensible. DC would be far more controversial as it is so small, and it feels like it cuts across its original constitutional intent as a federal capital, but Biden still might do it anyway.

    District of Columbia has larger population than several states, and IIRC as a would be entitled to more than one House member.

    One issue with DC statehood is, would it require a constitutional amendment? After all, the district (or if you prefer the future district) is referenced in US Constitution Article 1, Section 7.

    Note that one option NOT much discussed, would be to eliminated the District of Columbia (but NOT the City of Washington) by congressional action to return it to the possession & jurisdiction of State of Maryland. Which is exactly what happened before the Civil War to the VIRGINIA portion of the original district (today Arlington & most of Alexandria).

    Which would NOT result in two new Senators, but would give DC a voice in electing Maryland's Senators AND also representation in US House.

    As for Puerto Rico, both US parties are on record as favoring statehood IF the people of PR support it via a clear election victory for a statehood referendum.

    As for how the PR delegation might align within Congress. keep in mind that late 1950s Republicans in Congress generally opposed statehood for Alaska but supported statehood for Hawaii, while Democrats inclined the other way.

    Why? Because both sides of the isle believed (on basis of territorial elections) that Alaska would vote Democratic while Hawaii would vote Republican.

    BUT as we know know, things turned out just the opposite!
    DC has a larger population than either VT or WY, and larger than all of the territories save Puerto Rico.

    If DC rejoined MD, it would bump MD up from 19th to 17th most populous state - leapfrogging Indiana and Missouri
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768

    kle4 said:

    Is the process for adding a state set out in the US constitution?

    I thought the Constitution essentially just says that new states can join, so long as the other states agree. I'd presume a referendum in the area in question would be done, thesedays at least.
    You are wrong in saying "so long as the other states agree". Was argued at time of Louisiana Purchase that only way new states could be created from the newly acquired territory was if all the existing states gave their consent. BUT this notion was defeated, and statehood depends on Act of Congress, which requires majority of both Houses AND absence of presidential veto but NOT unanimous consent by existing states.

    Case of Texas is bit different, as statehood was achieved by treaty between US and Republic of Texas, ratified by US Senate - though House did go along. However, number of states (esp in New England) were opposed to Texas statehood, mainly because it meant expansion of slavery.
    As I recall, the outgoing President signed the annexation of Texas into law on his last day in office, on the basis that it would no longer impact his political future that way.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    LadyG said:

    alex_ said:
    Encouraging data. Let's hope that Tier 3 does the trick.
    That is encouraging. Dear God let us avoid a proper lockdown.
    We are not going to avoid a second lock-down. We missed the chance for a short circuit-breaker a couple of weeks ago and now face another extended lock-down.

    If only Boris had followed the scientific advice, earlier (or Keir Starmer's for that matter).
    Starmer didn’t offer advice - he was trying to gain political advantage

    Politicians’ job is to trade off between economics and health. Just “following the science” is only part of the story

  • LadyG said:

    alex_ said:
    Encouraging data. Let's hope that Tier 3 does the trick.
    That is encouraging. Dear God let us avoid a proper lockdown.
    We are not going to avoid a second lock-down. We missed the chance for a short circuit-breaker a couple of weeks ago and now face another extended lock-down.

    If only Boris had followed the scientific advice, earlier (or Keir Starmer's for that matter).
    That assumes firstly a 'circuit breaker' would work and secondly that a rapid increase in cases wouldn't occur afterwards.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,284

    Looking at trends in positive cases:

    France
    14/10/20 22,591
    21/10/20 26,676
    28/10/20 36,437

    Germany
    14/10/20 6,063
    21/10/20 10,457
    28/10/20 16,044

    Italy
    14/10/20 7,331
    21/10/20 15,198
    28/10/20 24,991

    Spain
    14/10/20 13,670
    21/10/20 16,973
    28/10/20 19,675

    UK
    14/10/20 19,724
    21/10/20 26,688
    28/10/20 24,701

    With the UK doing the most testing.

    Whoever would have predicted that the UK would be the most successful this autumn.

    Shameless cherry-picking. 21/10 was a very high day in the UK but look at the 7 day average... it has continued to move up throughout October, here as elsewhere.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    kle4 said:

    Is the process for adding a state set out in the US constitution?

    I thought the Constitution essentially just says that new states can join, so long as the other states agree. I'd presume a referendum in the area in question would be done, thesedays at least.
    You are wrong in saying "so long as the other states agree". Was argued at time of Louisiana Purchase that only way new states could be created from the newly acquired territory was if all the existing states gave their consent. BUT this notion was defeated, and statehood depends on Act of Congress, which requires majority of both Houses AND absence of presidential veto but NOT unanimous consent by existing states.

    Case of Texas is bit different, as statehood was achieved by treaty between US and Republic of Texas, ratified by US Senate - though House did go along. However, number of states (esp in New England) were opposed to Texas statehood, mainly because it meant expansion of slavery.
    Interesting stuff. Makes sense, otherwise parties wouldn't be worries about the prospect of expansion I guess. Not that we haven't had some interesting constitutional questions in recent centuries, including very recently, but the USA has us some great examples.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    Looking at trends in positive cases:

    France
    14/10/20 22,591
    21/10/20 26,676
    28/10/20 36,437

    Germany
    14/10/20 6,063
    21/10/20 10,457
    28/10/20 16,044

    Italy
    14/10/20 7,331
    21/10/20 15,198
    28/10/20 24,991

    Spain
    14/10/20 13,670
    21/10/20 16,973
    28/10/20 19,675

    UK
    14/10/20 19,724
    21/10/20 26,688
    28/10/20 24,701

    With the UK doing the most testing.

    Whoever would have predicted that the UK would be the most successful this autumn.

    Shameless cherry-picking. 21/10 was a very high day in the UK but look at the 7 day average... it has continued to move up throughout October, here as elsewhere.
    Could you please stop popping all my balloons. I am trying to stay cheerful. Ish,
  • ydoethur said:

    Note that one option NOT much discussed, would be to eliminated the District of Columbia (but NOT the City of Washington) by congressional action to return it to the possession & jurisdiction of State of Maryland. Which is exactly what happened before the Civil War to the VIRGINIA portion of the original district (today Arlington & most of Alexandria).

    You mean, just the White House and the Capitol etc in Washington outside Maryland, with no permanent residents denied a vote?

    That could work as well. Why is it not much discussed?
    I mean the whole of the current District of Columbia, the White House & Capitol included. It was all part of Maryland until the Free State ceded it to the feds.

    Number of nations (Australia & Mexico for example) have capital districts more-or-less modeled after District of Columbia. BUT most nations - including United Kingdom and rest of Europe.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884

    Looking at trends in positive cases:

    France
    14/10/20 22,591
    21/10/20 26,676
    28/10/20 36,437

    Germany
    14/10/20 6,063
    21/10/20 10,457
    28/10/20 16,044

    Italy
    14/10/20 7,331
    21/10/20 15,198
    28/10/20 24,991

    Spain
    14/10/20 13,670
    21/10/20 16,973
    28/10/20 19,675

    UK
    14/10/20 19,724
    21/10/20 26,688
    28/10/20 24,701

    With the UK doing the most testing.

    Whoever would have predicted that the UK would be the most successful this autumn.

    Shameless cherry-picking. 21/10 was a very high day in the UK but look at the 7 day average... it has continued to move up throughout October, here as elsewhere.
    It’s not that cherry picky. By specimen date two weeks ago the numbers were over 15k.
  • LadyG said:

    Looking at trends in positive cases:

    France
    14/10/20 22,591
    21/10/20 26,676
    28/10/20 36,437

    Germany
    14/10/20 6,063
    21/10/20 10,457
    28/10/20 16,044

    Italy
    14/10/20 7,331
    21/10/20 15,198
    28/10/20 24,991

    Spain
    14/10/20 13,670
    21/10/20 16,973
    28/10/20 19,675

    UK
    14/10/20 19,724
    21/10/20 26,688
    28/10/20 24,701

    With the UK doing the most testing.

    Whoever would have predicted that the UK would be the most successful this autumn.

    That German score is quite something. It tripled in two weeks. Jeez

    (Italy was worse, but that's expected)
    If the UK was doing as few tests as Germany we'd be deafened hearing how Little Johnny can't get a test.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    Toms said:

    LadyG said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    Those figures don't pass the sniff test. Either the number of deaths in Germany is too low or the number of positive tests in the UK is too low (I know there's a lag, but the trends have been similar in both countries).
    There's reason to believe that the UK testing system isn't picking up all the cases; both the ONS survey and the ZOE app put the true incidence in the UK about twice as high as Test'n'Trace does. Yes, the UK is testing lots of people, but it's still managing to miss lots.
    Sadly the infectious before symptomatic is the elephant in the room. Without that issue Covid would have gone the way of swine flu.
    No it isn't, the infectious pre-symptomatic period is 2.5 days out of 5, a good track and trace team can get test results back within the first 3 days of infection as has been shown all across developed nations in APAC. Our issue is that track and trace is basically a disaster here and only contacts 6/10 people and of those very few get a test and even fewer isolate. The key to breaking the isolation chain finding contacts asap, swabbing them and getting them test results overnight so they can isolate as well if they test positive.

    All European countries seem absolutely rubbish at going out and finding cases, all testing systems basically rely on people with symptoms booking a test which means there are at least 4.5 days where people are infectious and not isolating becusee they don't know if they have it. Coupled with rubbish isolation rates in general and we are where we are.
    It may be basic IQ levels. That is to say, if you have a population which on average is basically smart enough for most people to wear masks, wash hands, isolate properly, obey rules of 6, not go to religious festivals, etc, then you will get a good covid outcome.



    The top 8 nations by average IQ are:

    1. Hong Kong (108)

    2. Singapore (108)

    3. South Korea (106)

    4. China (105)

    5. Japan (105)

    6. Taiwan (105)

    7. Iceland (101)

    8. Macau (101)
    The slight spread of those numbers, all very near 100, are pretty well within the noise level.
    Cultural effects will probably be important for example.
    Edit: Brits tend to be bloody minded don't they?
    Freedom loving, surely?😆

    The range around those IQ figures of 2 Standard Deviations (30 IQ points) would mean that there would be little difference between countries. All have some geniuses and some noddies. Thats also ignoring the cultural and educational factors that mean IQ is a dubious concept in the first place.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,284
    Charles said:

    LadyG said:

    alex_ said:
    Encouraging data. Let's hope that Tier 3 does the trick.
    That is encouraging. Dear God let us avoid a proper lockdown.
    We are not going to avoid a second lock-down. We missed the chance for a short circuit-breaker a couple of weeks ago and now face another extended lock-down.

    If only Boris had followed the scientific advice, earlier (or Keir Starmer's for that matter).
    Starmer didn’t offer advice - he was trying to gain political advantage

    Politicians’ job is to trade off between economics and health. Just “following the science” is only part of the story

    As has been said many times, it's not really a trade-off is it?

    You can either have a big hit on the economy and protect health...

    or de-prioritise health... and get a big hit on the economy plus a lot more deaths.
  • Should we be hoping for a cold winter or a mild winter re covid ?

    At least with all the hand washing, mask wearing, social distancing and self isolation flu should be much reduced.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    Those figures don't pass the sniff test. Either the number of deaths in Germany is too low or the number of positive tests in the UK is too low (I know there's a lag, but the trends have been similar in both countries).
    There's reason to believe that the UK testing system isn't picking up all the cases; both the ONS survey and the ZOE app put the true incidence in the UK about twice as high as Test'n'Trace does. Yes, the UK is testing lots of people, but it's still managing to miss lots.
    Sadly the infectious before symptomatic is the elephant in the room. Without that issue Covid would have gone the way of swine flu.
    No it isn't, the infectious pre-symptomatic period is 2.5 days out of 5, a good track and trace team can get test results back within the first 3 days of infection as has been shown all across developed nations in APAC. Our issue is that track and trace is basically a disaster here and only contacts 6/10 people and of those very few get a test and even fewer isolate. The key to breaking the isolation chain finding contacts asap, swabbing them and getting them test results overnight so they can isolate as well if they test positive.

    All European countries seem absolutely rubbish at going out and finding cases, all testing systems basically rely on people with symptoms booking a test which means there are at least 4.5 days where people are infectious and not isolating becusee they don't know if they have it. Coupled with rubbish isolation rates in general and we are where we are.
    Tbf your reply doesn’t refute my point, it’s a comment on what we should be doing to overcome the issue. Swine flu was only infectious when symptomatic. Many people who feel fine are spreading the virus.
    Yes, I guess it doesn't, but I suppose my point is more that asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic spread is something that can be contained with a good track and trace strategy that involves rapid testing and minimising disruption for people who have been in contact with those who have previously tested positive.

    I have a friend who got a call from the NHS track and trace team, she decided that a person on the end of the phone wasn't qualified to tell her what to do, but because she doesn't have symptoms she can't get a test. Essentially she's not going to bother isolating, there's no incentive to do so and there is no way out of it and she doesn't know whether or not she has the virus. It's literally the worst of all worlds.

    The whole system makes absolutely no sense at all, it is almost as if it is designed to be as disruptive as possible for those contacts who don't qualify for an NHS test because they don't have symptoms but are supposed to isolate on the say so of someone on the end of the phone.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328

    ydoethur said:

    Note that one option NOT much discussed, would be to eliminated the District of Columbia (but NOT the City of Washington) by congressional action to return it to the possession & jurisdiction of State of Maryland. Which is exactly what happened before the Civil War to the VIRGINIA portion of the original district (today Arlington & most of Alexandria).

    You mean, just the White House and the Capitol etc in Washington outside Maryland, with no permanent residents denied a vote?

    That could work as well. Why is it not much discussed?
    I mean the whole of the current District of Columbia, the White House & Capitol included. It was all part of Maryland until the Free State ceded it to the feds.

    Number of nations (Australia & Mexico for example) have capital districts more-or-less modeled after District of Columbia. BUT most nations - including United Kingdom and rest of Europe.
    Don't forget Brazil and Pakistan - Brazilia/Federal District and Islamabad Capital Territory.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    So worst case we're looking at Biden +9. I can live with that.
  • Looking at trends in positive cases:

    France
    14/10/20 22,591
    21/10/20 26,676
    28/10/20 36,437

    Germany
    14/10/20 6,063
    21/10/20 10,457
    28/10/20 16,044

    Italy
    14/10/20 7,331
    21/10/20 15,198
    28/10/20 24,991

    Spain
    14/10/20 13,670
    21/10/20 16,973
    28/10/20 19,675

    UK
    14/10/20 19,724
    21/10/20 26,688
    28/10/20 24,701

    With the UK doing the most testing.

    Whoever would have predicted that the UK would be the most successful this autumn.

    Shameless cherry-picking. 21/10 was a very high day in the UK but look at the 7 day average... it has continued to move up throughout October, here as elsewhere.
    Its the most up to date data.

    New infections are increasing but haven't soared as they have in other countries.

    But please feel free to provide data showing the UK doing worse
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    Those figures don't pass the sniff test. Either the number of deaths in Germany is too low or the number of positive tests in the UK is too low (I know there's a lag, but the trends have been similar in both countries).
    There's reason to believe that the UK testing system isn't picking up all the cases; both the ONS survey and the ZOE app put the true incidence in the UK about twice as high as Test'n'Trace does. Yes, the UK is testing lots of people, but it's still managing to miss lots.
    Sadly the infectious before symptomatic is the elephant in the room. Without that issue Covid would have gone the way of swine flu.
    No it isn't, the infectious pre-symptomatic period is 2.5 days out of 5, a good track and trace team can get test results back within the first 3 days of infection as has been shown all across developed nations in APAC. Our issue is that track and trace is basically a disaster here and only contacts 6/10 people and of those very few get a test and even fewer isolate. The key to breaking the isolation chain finding contacts asap, swabbing them and getting them test results overnight so they can isolate as well if they test positive.

    All European countries seem absolutely rubbish at going out and finding cases, all testing systems basically rely on people with symptoms booking a test which means there are at least 4.5 days where people are infectious and not isolating becusee they don't know if they have it. Coupled with rubbish isolation rates in general and we are where we are.
    Tbf your reply doesn’t refute my point, it’s a comment on what we should be doing to overcome the issue. Swine flu was only infectious when symptomatic. Many people who feel fine are spreading the virus.
    Yes, I guess it doesn't, but I suppose my point is more that asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic spread is something that can be contained with a good track and trace strategy that involves rapid testing and minimising disruption for people who have been in contact with those who have previously tested positive.

    I have a friend who got a call from the NHS track and trace team, she decided that a person on the end of the phone wasn't qualified to tell her what to do, but because she doesn't have symptoms she can't get a test. Essentially she's not going to bother isolating, there's no incentive to do so and there is no way out of it and she doesn't know whether or not she has the virus. It's literally the worst of all worlds.

    The whole system makes absolutely no sense at all, it is almost as if it is designed to be as disruptive as possible for those contacts who don't qualify for an NHS test because they don't have symptoms but are supposed to isolate on the say so of someone on the end of the phone.
    I think the rationale behind not testing contacts is that they may not show the presence of the virus in the first few days. Just isolating, while crude, fixes that, but only if people do it. As you have consistently argued, we need to make isolation easier, and not detrimental to people in low paid, insecure jobs.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Charles said:

    LadyG said:

    alex_ said:
    Encouraging data. Let's hope that Tier 3 does the trick.
    That is encouraging. Dear God let us avoid a proper lockdown.
    We are not going to avoid a second lock-down. We missed the chance for a short circuit-breaker a couple of weeks ago and now face another extended lock-down.

    If only Boris had followed the scientific advice, earlier (or Keir Starmer's for that matter).
    Starmer didn’t offer advice - he was trying to gain political advantage

    Politicians’ job is to trade off between economics and health. Just “following the science” is only part of the story

    Well if we end up going into a proper lockdown anyway, it would have been better to do it earlier.

    Regardless I'm still not in favour of an unsustainable lockdown. We've completely wasted the summer.
  • Charles said:

    LadyG said:

    alex_ said:
    Encouraging data. Let's hope that Tier 3 does the trick.
    That is encouraging. Dear God let us avoid a proper lockdown.
    We are not going to avoid a second lock-down. We missed the chance for a short circuit-breaker a couple of weeks ago and now face another extended lock-down.

    If only Boris had followed the scientific advice, earlier (or Keir Starmer's for that matter).
    Starmer didn’t offer advice - he was trying to gain political advantage

    Politicians’ job is to trade off between economics and health. Just “following the science” is only part of the story

    As has been said many times, it's not really a trade-off is it?

    You can either have a big hit on the economy and protect health...

    or de-prioritise health... and get a big hit on the economy plus a lot more deaths.
    Every decision is a trade off...you lock people down, the hit isn't just economic.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Is the process for adding a state set out in the US constitution?

    I thought the Constitution essentially just says that new states can join, so long as the other states agree. I'd presume a referendum in the area in question would be done, thesedays at least.
    You are wrong in saying "so long as the other states agree". Was argued at time of Louisiana Purchase that only way new states could be created from the newly acquired territory was if all the existing states gave their consent. BUT this notion was defeated, and statehood depends on Act of Congress, which requires majority of both Houses AND absence of presidential veto but NOT unanimous consent by existing states.

    Case of Texas is bit different, as statehood was achieved by treaty between US and Republic of Texas, ratified by US Senate - though House did go along. However, number of states (esp in New England) were opposed to Texas statehood, mainly because it meant expansion of slavery.
    Interesting stuff. Makes sense, otherwise parties wouldn't be worries about the prospect of expansion I guess. Not that we haven't had some interesting constitutional questions in recent centuries, including very recently, but the USA has us some great examples.
    Admission of new states has ALWAYS been a political football in US. The first new additions beyond the original 13 - Vermont, Kentucky, Tennessee and Ohio - were pretty much no brainers, though favored more by Republicans (Jeffersonians) than Federalists.

    However, folks quickly figured out that new admission COULD upset the sectional balance in Congress between free states and slave states. Thus practice began of maintaining the balance by admitting one of each at about the same time.

    Which was ok UNTIL it because clear that number of natural slave states was becoming limited, while number of potential free states was sure to grow (based on origins of new settlers). Which was one of the underlying causes of the Civil War.

    In this context, note that the treaty between Republic of Texas & United States authorized the new Lone Star State to divide itself into IIRC as many as four (or maybe five) states; this was put in to win a few Southern votes in Congress. BUT although it's been talked about (and even voted on by Texans back in the 1960s, the idea has never gotten off the ground - mostly I think because Texans REALLY like being BIG.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082

    LadyG said:

    alex_ said:
    Encouraging data. Let's hope that Tier 3 does the trick.
    That is encouraging. Dear God let us avoid a proper lockdown.
    We are not going to avoid a second lock-down. We missed the chance for a short circuit-breaker a couple of weeks ago and now face another extended lock-down.

    If only Boris had followed the scientific advice, earlier (or Keir Starmer's for that matter).
    It does look that way. Clever politics by SKS, a man who has problems with U turns.
  • UFC is super popular. He is just tapping into what his base like.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited October 2020
    How very blokish. Is he right in saying Biden said he'd like to take Trump to the back of the barn? (weird expression, sounds saucy)

    But I do think Trump would win in a fight. His head could be cleaved from his shoulders and he would refuse to accept he had lost, calling it fake news.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    Those figures don't pass the sniff test. Either the number of deaths in Germany is too low or the number of positive tests in the UK is too low (I know there's a lag, but the trends have been similar in both countries).
    There's reason to believe that the UK testing system isn't picking up all the cases; both the ONS survey and the ZOE app put the true incidence in the UK about twice as high as Test'n'Trace does. Yes, the UK is testing lots of people, but it's still managing to miss lots.
    Sadly the infectious before symptomatic is the elephant in the room. Without that issue Covid would have gone the way of swine flu.
    No it isn't, the infectious pre-symptomatic period is 2.5 days out of 5, a good track and trace team can get test results back within the first 3 days of infection as has been shown all across developed nations in APAC. Our issue is that track and trace is basically a disaster here and only contacts 6/10 people and of those very few get a test and even fewer isolate. The key to breaking the isolation chain finding contacts asap, swabbing them and getting them test results overnight so they can isolate as well if they test positive.

    All European countries seem absolutely rubbish at going out and finding cases, all testing systems basically rely on people with symptoms booking a test which means there are at least 4.5 days where people are infectious and not isolating becusee they don't know if they have it. Coupled with rubbish isolation rates in general and we are where we are.
    Tbf your reply doesn’t refute my point, it’s a comment on what we should be doing to overcome the issue. Swine flu was only infectious when symptomatic. Many people who feel fine are spreading the virus.
    Yes, I guess it doesn't, but I suppose my point is more that asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic spread is something that can be contained with a good track and trace strategy that involves rapid testing and minimising disruption for people who have been in contact with those who have previously tested positive.

    I have a friend who got a call from the NHS track and trace team, she decided that a person on the end of the phone wasn't qualified to tell her what to do, but because she doesn't have symptoms she can't get a test. Essentially she's not going to bother isolating, there's no incentive to do so and there is no way out of it and she doesn't know whether or not she has the virus. It's literally the worst of all worlds.

    The whole system makes absolutely no sense at all, it is almost as if it is designed to be as disruptive as possible for those contacts who don't qualify for an NHS test because they don't have symptoms but are supposed to isolate on the say so of someone on the end of the phone.
    I think the rationale behind not testing contacts is that they may not show the presence of the virus in the first few days. Just isolating, while crude, fixes that, but only if people do it. As you have consistently argued, we need to make isolation easier, and not detrimental to people in low paid, insecure jobs.
    And bluntly, the solution to that involves stuffing the mouths of those isolating, and their employers, with sufficient gold.

    Expensive? Yes- especially with the caseload being what it is. But probably worth it.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    kle4 said:

    How very blokish.

    But I do think Trump would win in a fight. His head could be cleaved from his shoulders and he would refuse to accept he had lost, calling it fake news.
    Trafalgar would have a poll saying he won.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,336

    ydoethur said:

    Note that one option NOT much discussed, would be to eliminated the District of Columbia (but NOT the City of Washington) by congressional action to return it to the possession & jurisdiction of State of Maryland. Which is exactly what happened before the Civil War to the VIRGINIA portion of the original district (today Arlington & most of Alexandria).

    You mean, just the White House and the Capitol etc in Washington outside Maryland, with no permanent residents denied a vote?

    That could work as well. Why is it not much discussed?
    I mean the whole of the current District of Columbia, the White House & Capitol included. It was all part of Maryland until the Free State ceded it to the feds.

    Number of nations (Australia & Mexico for example) have capital districts more-or-less modeled after District of Columbia. BUT most nations - including United Kingdom and rest of Europe.
    Canberra has representation in Australia's houses. I Think Ottawa does as well.
  • They wouldn't be in the same weight division, for a start.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,284
    edited October 2020
    LadyG said:

    Looking at trends in positive cases:

    France
    14/10/20 22,591
    21/10/20 26,676
    28/10/20 36,437

    Germany
    14/10/20 6,063
    21/10/20 10,457
    28/10/20 16,044

    Italy
    14/10/20 7,331
    21/10/20 15,198
    28/10/20 24,991

    Spain
    14/10/20 13,670
    21/10/20 16,973
    28/10/20 19,675

    UK
    14/10/20 19,724
    21/10/20 26,688
    28/10/20 24,701

    With the UK doing the most testing.

    Whoever would have predicted that the UK would be the most successful this autumn.

    That German score is quite something. It tripled in two weeks. Jeez

    (Italy was worse, but that's expected)
    It's the issue of picking individual days' data rather than looking at moving averages.

    On a similar basis, the UK's cases almost tripled in one week, earlier:

    28/09/20 4,662
    05/10/20 12,594

  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    Those figures don't pass the sniff test. Either the number of deaths in Germany is too low or the number of positive tests in the UK is too low (I know there's a lag, but the trends have been similar in both countries).
    There's reason to believe that the UK testing system isn't picking up all the cases; both the ONS survey and the ZOE app put the true incidence in the UK about twice as high as Test'n'Trace does. Yes, the UK is testing lots of people, but it's still managing to miss lots.
    Sadly the infectious before symptomatic is the elephant in the room. Without that issue Covid would have gone the way of swine flu.
    No it isn't, the infectious pre-symptomatic period is 2.5 days out of 5, a good track and trace team can get test results back within the first 3 days of infection as has been shown all across developed nations in APAC. Our issue is that track and trace is basically a disaster here and only contacts 6/10 people and of those very few get a test and even fewer isolate. The key to breaking the isolation chain finding contacts asap, swabbing them and getting them test results overnight so they can isolate as well if they test positive.

    All European countries seem absolutely rubbish at going out and finding cases, all testing systems basically rely on people with symptoms booking a test which means there are at least 4.5 days where people are infectious and not isolating becusee they don't know if they have it. Coupled with rubbish isolation rates in general and we are where we are.
    Tbf your reply doesn’t refute my point, it’s a comment on what we should be doing to overcome the issue. Swine flu was only infectious when symptomatic. Many people who feel fine are spreading the virus.
    Yes, I guess it doesn't, but I suppose my point is more that asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic spread is something that can be contained with a good track and trace strategy that involves rapid testing and minimising disruption for people who have been in contact with those who have previously tested positive.

    I have a friend who got a call from the NHS track and trace team, she decided that a person on the end of the phone wasn't qualified to tell her what to do, but because she doesn't have symptoms she can't get a test. Essentially she's not going to bother isolating, there's no incentive to do so and there is no way out of it and she doesn't know whether or not she has the virus. It's literally the worst of all worlds.

    The whole system makes absolutely no sense at all, it is almost as if it is designed to be as disruptive as possible for those contacts who don't qualify for an NHS test because they don't have symptoms but are supposed to isolate on the say so of someone on the end of the phone.
    Indeed.

    It can be less disruptive to have symptoms than not.

    I see that testing capacity has increased by approximately another 70k - hopefully this can be used to give tests to those possibly infected but not showing symptoms.

    There's also the situation of those who have likely been infected previously but do not know.
  • ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Is the process for adding a state set out in the US constitution?

    I thought the Constitution essentially just says that new states can join, so long as the other states agree. I'd presume a referendum in the area in question would be done, thesedays at least.
    You are wrong in saying "so long as the other states agree". Was argued at time of Louisiana Purchase that only way new states could be created from the newly acquired territory was if all the existing states gave their consent. BUT this notion was defeated, and statehood depends on Act of Congress, which requires majority of both Houses AND absence of presidential veto but NOT unanimous consent by existing states.

    Case of Texas is bit different, as statehood was achieved by treaty between US and Republic of Texas, ratified by US Senate - though House did go along. However, number of states (esp in New England) were opposed to Texas statehood, mainly because it meant expansion of slavery.
    As I recall, the outgoing President signed the annexation of Texas into law on his last day in office, on the basis that it would no longer impact his political future that way.
    Tyler really HAD no political future at that point - though he did end up serving in the Confederate Congress! - think his motivation was same as Mitch McConnell's re ACB in 2020 - get it done while you can.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Foxy said:

    Toms said:

    LadyG said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    Those figures don't pass the sniff test. Either the number of deaths in Germany is too low or the number of positive tests in the UK is too low (I know there's a lag, but the trends have been similar in both countries).
    There's reason to believe that the UK testing system isn't picking up all the cases; both the ONS survey and the ZOE app put the true incidence in the UK about twice as high as Test'n'Trace does. Yes, the UK is testing lots of people, but it's still managing to miss lots.
    Sadly the infectious before symptomatic is the elephant in the room. Without that issue Covid would have gone the way of swine flu.
    No it isn't, the infectious pre-symptomatic period is 2.5 days out of 5, a good track and trace team can get test results back within the first 3 days of infection as has been shown all across developed nations in APAC. Our issue is that track and trace is basically a disaster here and only contacts 6/10 people and of those very few get a test and even fewer isolate. The key to breaking the isolation chain finding contacts asap, swabbing them and getting them test results overnight so they can isolate as well if they test positive.

    All European countries seem absolutely rubbish at going out and finding cases, all testing systems basically rely on people with symptoms booking a test which means there are at least 4.5 days where people are infectious and not isolating becusee they don't know if they have it. Coupled with rubbish isolation rates in general and we are where we are.
    It may be basic IQ levels. That is to say, if you have a population which on average is basically smart enough for most people to wear masks, wash hands, isolate properly, obey rules of 6, not go to religious festivals, etc, then you will get a good covid outcome.



    The top 8 nations by average IQ are:

    1. Hong Kong (108)

    2. Singapore (108)

    3. South Korea (106)

    4. China (105)

    5. Japan (105)

    6. Taiwan (105)

    7. Iceland (101)

    8. Macau (101)
    The slight spread of those numbers, all very near 100, are pretty well within the noise level.
    Cultural effects will probably be important for example.
    Edit: Brits tend to be bloody minded don't they?
    Freedom loving, surely?😆

    The range around those IQ figures of 2 Standard Deviations (30 IQ points) would mean that there would be little difference between countries. All have some geniuses and some noddies. Thats also ignoring the cultural and educational factors that mean IQ is a dubious concept in the first place.
    Er, 2 standard deviations, i.e. 30 IQ points, is the difference between someone regarded as mildly gifted - 115, and someone with an IQ of 85, which is "borderline retarded", and able to get benefits in some countries

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4967780/#:~:text=The term borderline intellectual functioning,IQ between 70 and 85.

  • They wouldn't be in the same weight division, for a start.
    Trump would cheat the weigh-in...also, the old UFC, didn't have weight classes.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    2 new Supreme Court justices are more likely than DC statehood, which requires an amendment.
  • ydoethur said:

    Note that one option NOT much discussed, would be to eliminated the District of Columbia (but NOT the City of Washington) by congressional action to return it to the possession & jurisdiction of State of Maryland. Which is exactly what happened before the Civil War to the VIRGINIA portion of the original district (today Arlington & most of Alexandria).

    You mean, just the White House and the Capitol etc in Washington outside Maryland, with no permanent residents denied a vote?

    That could work as well. Why is it not much discussed?
    I mean the whole of the current District of Columbia, the White House & Capitol included. It was all part of Maryland until the Free State ceded it to the feds.

    Number of nations (Australia & Mexico for example) have capital districts more-or-less modeled after District of Columbia. BUT most nations - including United Kingdom and rest of Europe.
    Canberra has representation in Australia's houses. I Think Ottawa does as well.
    Yes. But Canberra is in Australian Capital Territory (ceded to Commonwealth by New South Wales) while Ottawa is part of Ontario.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    Those figures don't pass the sniff test. Either the number of deaths in Germany is too low or the number of positive tests in the UK is too low (I know there's a lag, but the trends have been similar in both countries).
    There's reason to believe that the UK testing system isn't picking up all the cases; both the ONS survey and the ZOE app put the true incidence in the UK about twice as high as Test'n'Trace does. Yes, the UK is testing lots of people, but it's still managing to miss lots.
    Sadly the infectious before symptomatic is the elephant in the room. Without that issue Covid would have gone the way of swine flu.
    No it isn't, the infectious pre-symptomatic period is 2.5 days out of 5, a good track and trace team can get test results back within the first 3 days of infection as has been shown all across developed nations in APAC. Our issue is that track and trace is basically a disaster here and only contacts 6/10 people and of those very few get a test and even fewer isolate. The key to breaking the isolation chain finding contacts asap, swabbing them and getting them test results overnight so they can isolate as well if they test positive.

    All European countries seem absolutely rubbish at going out and finding cases, all testing systems basically rely on people with symptoms booking a test which means there are at least 4.5 days where people are infectious and not isolating becusee they don't know if they have it. Coupled with rubbish isolation rates in general and we are where we are.
    Tbf your reply doesn’t refute my point, it’s a comment on what we should be doing to overcome the issue. Swine flu was only infectious when symptomatic. Many people who feel fine are spreading the virus.
    Yes, I guess it doesn't, but I suppose my point is more that asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic spread is something that can be contained with a good track and trace strategy that involves rapid testing and minimising disruption for people who have been in contact with those who have previously tested positive.

    I have a friend who got a call from the NHS track and trace team, she decided that a person on the end of the phone wasn't qualified to tell her what to do, but because she doesn't have symptoms she can't get a test. Essentially she's not going to bother isolating, there's no incentive to do so and there is no way out of it and she doesn't know whether or not she has the virus. It's literally the worst of all worlds.

    The whole system makes absolutely no sense at all, it is almost as if it is designed to be as disruptive as possible for those contacts who don't qualify for an NHS test because they don't have symptoms but are supposed to isolate on the say so of someone on the end of the phone.
    I think the rationale behind not testing contacts is that they may not show the presence of the virus in the first few days. Just isolating, while crude, fixes that, but only if people do it. As you have consistently argued, we need to make isolation easier, and not detrimental to people in low paid, insecure jobs.
    Hasn't that rationale been outdated by actual evidence which shows PCR tests can pick up the virus after just 48h of initial infection? That also lines up with other evidence that the infectious pre-symptomatic period is 2.5 days out of 5. Any track and trace system will take at least two days to get people swabbed so I don't think it's a huge worry.

    IMO it's a leftover of not having enough testing capacity when the policy was originally written. Back then we could only run 20k tests per day in hospitals, it wasnt feasible to get contacts tested. It is now and we should be giving these people priority slots in P2 testing so they get a next day appointment or someone visits to take a swab.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082

    Should we be hoping for a cold winter or a mild winter re covid ?

    At least with all the hand washing, mask wearing, social distancing and self isolation flu should be much reduced.

    Masks do make for a nice warm nose 😷
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998
    EPG said:

    2 new Supreme Court justices are more likely than DC statehood, which requires an amendment.

    why an amendment?
This discussion has been closed.