Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

The polling gets tighter and tighter in Texas yet on Betfair Biden is still a 27% chance – political

135

Comments

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,775
    DavidL said:

    Don’t forget readers that your clocks go back 1 hour tonight unless you live in Scotland in which event they go back 60 minutes.

    That's half a haggis of extra cost for those that power their clocks that way.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    edited October 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    Do any of these numpties ever volunteer just what the “context” was that their comment were “taken out of” ?

    If so, I must have missed it.

    And to answer your question, Scott, read the fable of the frog and the scorpion.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    I've been really trying to get on board with the indignation being levelled at the Welsh government, but I can't help feeling like people are working themselves up into a bit too much of a froth about it.
    I'm fully behind the fact that there are absurdities; that is very clear to almost everyone. But at the same time, we are still in a crisis, and a few temporary privations aren't the end of the world.

    The kettle one is a great example. Some time ago I was left alone for a week without a kettle. The other half, for reasons that still elude me today, took our only kettle with on a business trip to Scotland. For a week, I had to use a pan to boil water. It wasn't ideal but it wasn't the end of the world. We often hear talk about how some people lack the Blitz spirit, or that some people are too soft and wouldn't have been able to survive when things were really tough. Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?

    None of this is to say I even agree with what the Welsh government is doing. I'm only talking about the force of the reaction which, well, seems to be a blend of genuine and inflated outrage.

    I'm posting this in the knowledge that I'll be accused of being an apologist to fascism or something, so before you fly off the handle (replacement handles should be available on Amazon.co.uk for under £20), just take the time to check you are disagreeing with something I have actually said.

    Given the apparent ineffectiveness so far of the approach in England, I do agree with what the Welsh Government is doing. I suspect that much of the criticism on here is driven by people who don't like Drakeford and are therefore jumping at the chance to avoid seeing the wood for the trees by citing spurious examples of minor inconvenience from shopping restrictions.

    .
    I can honestly say I have never spared Drakeford a single thought until now.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:
    It's Luntz.

    I wonder if the Republican boosters of Trump's chances aren't actually keeping the Biden camp on their toes right up to the tape. Could be helping Biden.
    If they are shy Trump voters what difference would Biden's campaign make, they have already made up their minds to vote for Trump, they are just not telling anybody.

    Read the article
    Biden's campaign might not make a difference to committed Trump voters but the Trump boosters might keep the Biden GOTV operation on their toes. The relative turnout matters.

    The article won't persuade people to vote for Trump. It'll give Trump supporters some comfort, and fire up Biden supporters.
    Biden supporters are so fired up that literally dozens turn up to his rallies when he ventures out the basement. I read a report that half a dozen turned up to a Kamala Harris event. They were outnumbered by pro Trump hecklers apparently.

    How many times do you have to be told?

    The Biden campaign are purposely holding small events because you know they aren't arseholes and don't want their supporters to catch Covid-19.

    We rate the claim that photos of Biden's small campaign events show a low-turnout rally as MISSING CONTEXT. Biden is hosting smaller campaign events than Trump, but it has significantly more to do with his adherence to social distancing guidelines rather than his lack of popularity.

    https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/09/22/fact-check-joe-biden-events-smaller-because-covid-19/5780898002/

    But you keep pushing your bullshit.
    He does. Compare the viewing figures for the Biden and Trump TV events that replaced the 2nd debate. That must have hurt Trump's feelings.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    Carnyx said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    I've been really trying to get on board with the indignation being levelled at the Welsh government, but I can't help feeling like people are working themselves up into a bit too much of a froth about it.
    I'm fully behind the fact that there are absurdities; that is very clear to almost everyone. But at the same time, we are still in a crisis, and a few temporary privations aren't the end of the world.

    The kettle one is a great example. Some time ago I was left alone for a week without a kettle. The other half, for reasons that still elude me today, took our only kettle with on a business trip to Scotland. For a week, I had to use a pan to boil water. It wasn't ideal but it wasn't the end of the world. We often hear talk about how some people lack the Blitz spirit, or that some people are too soft and wouldn't have been able to survive when things were really tough. Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?

    None of this is to say I even agree with what the Welsh government is doing. I'm only talking about the force of the reaction which, well, seems to be a blend of genuine and inflated outrage.

    I'm posting this in the knowledge that I'll be accused of being an apologist to fascism or something, so before you fly off the handle (replacement handles should be available on Amazon.co.uk for under £20), just take the time to check you are disagreeing with something I have actually said.

    Given the apparent ineffectiveness so far of the approach in England, I do agree with what the Welsh Government is doing. I suspect that much of the criticism on here is driven by people who don't like Drakeford and are therefore jumping at the chance to avoid seeing the wood for the trees by citing spurious examples of minor inconvenience from shopping restrictions.

    What Drakeford has done is to curtail shopping as an indoor leisure activity for 17 days as part of an intense lockdown of short duration. For an effective circuit breaker, I don't see how you can do anything else but minimise interactions in major stores. For non-exempt goods, the vast majority of affected potential purchases will be discretionary ones, and people will have to either put those off for a couple of weeks or order for delivery with a wait of a couple of days. Other than for something really essential, most people will wait and independent retailers will still have a chance to compete with the big chains for that custom in due course. So it protects small retailers market share as much as you can in the circumstances of a circuit breaker.

    The restrictions in England will in my view last many more months without being effective and that duration makes them unbelieveably costly even though they may still destroy some businesses for good. There isn't an end date for those restrictions or even know criteria for ending them. England is in limbo until the new year, and the scale of the restrictions is slowly extending across the country. There are reports today that the Government are working up a Tier 4 as they suspect that even Tier 3 will prove ineffective.

    We should all be thankful that Wales is at least trying out a contrasting strategy, piloting a much more intensive alternative which if it works will apply restrictions for a far shorter period. If it works, it will get the virus down to low levels, sufficient give otherwise overwhelmed systems a chance to contain it in Wales, so long as it doesn't spread back in from England. If the Welsh approach fails, then in a few weeks we'll know that there's not going to be much point of trying to apply it the remaining 95% of the UK population either, and only then will Drakeford deserve criticism especially if he persists with that approach regardless.
    Picking holes and willing the fire break to fail helps to confirm Johnson was right all along.

    I have my doubts that it is long enough to work.

    Hopefully Johnson will be lucky and Tiers 2 and 3 do the business for England.
    I hope so too re the latter.

    But when one sees Unionists in Scotland advocating the English rather than Scottish mobile phone app as a point of British nationalist principle, and doing so IN SCOTLAND [rdit], one does wonder what their priorities are.
    It's just a game for some of these policians. I don't differentiate that notion along party lines either, I think the desire for an opponent's life or death Covid strategy to fail works in all directions.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129
    Scott_xP said:
    If you think something unkind, even if it is a tough but fair for the sake of argument, in the middle of the media storm at least it is probably best it remains a thought and not a social media post.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:
    It's Luntz.

    I wonder if the Republican boosters of Trump's chances aren't actually keeping the Biden camp on their toes right up to the tape. Could be helping Biden.
    If they are shy Trump voters what difference would Biden's campaign make, they have already made up their minds to vote for Trump, they are just not telling anybody.

    Read the article
    Biden's campaign might not make a difference to committed Trump voters but the Trump boosters might keep the Biden GOTV operation on their toes. The relative turnout matters.

    The article won't persuade people to vote for Trump. It'll give Trump supporters some comfort, and fire up Biden supporters.
    Biden supporters are so fired up that literally dozens turn up to his rallies when he ventures out the basement. I read a report that half a dozen turned up to a Kamala Harris event. They were outnumbered by pro Trump hecklers apparently.

    Queueing at the polling stations, presumably.
  • Roy_G_Biv said:

    I've been really trying to get on board with the indignation being levelled at the Welsh government, but I can't help feeling like people are working themselves up into a bit too much of a froth about it.
    I'm fully behind the fact that there are absurdities; that is very clear to almost everyone. But at the same time, we are still in a crisis, and a few temporary privations aren't the end of the world.

    The kettle one is a great example. Some time ago I was left alone for a week without a kettle. The other half, for reasons that still elude me today, took our only kettle with on a business trip to Scotland. For a week, I had to use a pan to boil water. It wasn't ideal but it wasn't the end of the world. We often hear talk about how some people lack the Blitz spirit, or that some people are too soft and wouldn't have been able to survive when things were really tough. Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?

    None of this is to say I even agree with what the Welsh government is doing. I'm only talking about the force of the reaction which, well, seems to be a blend of genuine and inflated outrage.

    I'm posting this in the knowledge that I'll be accused of being an apologist to fascism or something, so before you fly off the handle (replacement handles should be available on Amazon.co.uk for under £20), just take the time to check you are disagreeing with something I have actually said.

    Given the apparent ineffectiveness so far of the approach in England, I do agree with what the Welsh Government is doing. I suspect that much of the criticism on here is driven by people who don't like Drakeford and are therefore jumping at the chance to avoid seeing the wood for the trees by citing spurious examples of minor inconvenience from shopping restrictions.

    What Drakeford has done is to curtail shopping as an indoor leisure activity for 17 days as part of an intense lockdown of short duration. For an effective circuit breaker, I don't see how you can do anything else but minimise interactions in major stores. For non-exempt goods, the vast majority of affected potential purchases will be discretionary ones, and people will have to either put those off for a couple of weeks or order for delivery with a wait of a couple of days. Other than for something really essential, most people will wait and independent retailers will still have a chance to compete with the big chains for that custom in due course. So it protects small retailers market share as much as you can in the circumstances of a circuit breaker.

    The restrictions in England will in my view last many more months without being effective and that duration makes them unbelieveably costly even though they may still destroy some businesses for good. There isn't an end date for those restrictions or even know criteria for ending them. England is in limbo until the new year, and the scale of the restrictions is slowly extending across the country. There are reports today that the Government are working up a Tier 4 as they suspect that even Tier 3 will prove ineffective.

    We should all be thankful that Wales is at least trying out a contrasting strategy, piloting a much more intensive alternative which if it works will apply restrictions for a far shorter period. If it works, it will get the virus down to low levels, sufficient give otherwise overwhelmed systems a chance to contain it in Wales, so long as it doesn't spread back in from England. If the Welsh approach fails, then in a few weeks we'll know that there's not going to be much point of trying to apply it the remaining 95% of the UK population either, and only then will Drakeford deserve criticism especially if he persists with that approach regardless.
    Picking holes and willing the fire break to fail helps to confirm Johnson was right all along.

    I have my doubts that it is long enough to work.

    Hopefully Johnson will be lucky and Tiers 2 and 3 do the business for England.
    On a serious note these missteps by Drakeford have made it very hard, if not impossible, to repeat it
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,671
    edited October 2020
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:
    It's Luntz.

    I wonder if the Republican boosters of Trump's chances aren't actually keeping the Biden camp on their toes right up to the tape. Could be helping Biden.
    If they are shy Trump voters what difference would Biden's campaign make, they have already made up their minds to vote for Trump, they are just not telling anybody.

    Read the article
    Biden's campaign might not make a difference to committed Trump voters but the Trump boosters might keep the Biden GOTV operation on their toes. The relative turnout matters.

    The article won't persuade people to vote for Trump. It'll give Trump supporters some comfort, and fire up Biden supporters.
    Biden supporters are so fired up that literally dozens turn up to his rallies when he ventures out the basement. I read a report that half a dozen turned up to a Kamala Harris event. They were outnumbered by pro Trump hecklers apparently.

    How many times do you have to be told?

    The Biden campaign are purposely holding small events because you know they aren't arseholes and don't want their supporters to catch Covid-19.

    We rate the claim that photos of Biden's small campaign events show a low-turnout rally as MISSING CONTEXT. Biden is hosting smaller campaign events than Trump, but it has significantly more to do with his adherence to social distancing guidelines rather than his lack of popularity.

    https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/09/22/fact-check-joe-biden-events-smaller-because-covid-19/5780898002/

    But you keep pushing your bullshit.
    He does. Compare the viewing figures for the Biden and Trump TV events that replaced the 2nd debate. That must have hurt Trump's feelings.
    I've also mentioned that to him as well but he's in denial, but he's not very bright, but if I can teach history to Morris Dancer, then I can help educate contrarian on this.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:
    Absolute paydirt for the Lincoln Project. Far beyond their wildest dreams. Huge bonuses all round,
    Has Neil Young won his case against Trump campaign yet?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604
    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Has HYUFD given his reasoning for WHY Trafalgar did so badly in 2018 Mid-terms? I mean, after all, if their method is so superior then they must have some very good base data from which they can then import their "shy Trump" adjustment.

    Is he suggesting that for some reason they were under the impression that Trump was on the ballot in 2018 and made the mistake of including the "adjustment" to their sound base data?

    Or is it in reality that their base date, if it exists at all, is just a crock of sh*t? Or that the base data is just what other pollsters do with 6pts added to Trump? In which case he should perhaps answer the question i have repeatedly asked him about what he thinks the impact is of the changes in methodology that most pollsters have made since 2016... Which might rather undermine the Trafalgar "model"...

    They weren't that bad even in 2018, they correctly had DeSantis winning Florida unlike other pollsters they only got Georgia really badly wrong and in the article I linked to he admits that but overall they still were far better at identifying the shy Trump vote in 2016 than other pollsters were, especially in the rustbelt

    In every poll that I have seen that has asked Americans how they think their neighbours are voting, Trump has a huge lead.

    Indicative of a shy Trump factor? has to be, for me.
    I don't follow that. If Americans think their neighbours are voting Trump, it doesn't indicate that their neighbours are shy. Quite the opposite.
    Or that many Americans are still stung by the experience of 2016, when, against all expectations, so many of their neighbours turned out unexpectedly for Trump. And are fearing the same again. Just as so many PB Tories spent the 2019 campaign waiting for the Corbyn surprise...
    That could be. Fear of a repeat of 2016.
  • Given the comments about Drakeford on here, how many seats will Labour have in next year's Senedd election?

    I'm guessing they'll finish no higher than fourth?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    Omnium said:

    DavidL said:

    Don’t forget readers that your clocks go back 1 hour tonight unless you live in Scotland in which event they go back 60 minutes.

    That's half a haggis of extra cost for those that power their clocks that way.

    You're really not getting this are you? 60 minutes means half a haggis less thanks to the extraordinary generosity and commitment of the Scottish Government protecting us from the powers that be (for now).

    #SNP: different for the sake of it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    I've been really trying to get on board with the indignation being levelled at the Welsh government, but I can't help feeling like people are working themselves up into a bit too much of a froth about it.
    I'm fully behind the fact that there are absurdities; that is very clear to almost everyone. But at the same time, we are still in a crisis, and a few temporary privations aren't the end of the world.

    The kettle one is a great example. Some time ago I was left alone for a week without a kettle. The other half, for reasons that still elude me today, took our only kettle with on a business trip to Scotland. For a week, I had to use a pan to boil water. It wasn't ideal but it wasn't the end of the world. We often hear talk about how some people lack the Blitz spirit, or that some people are too soft and wouldn't have been able to survive when things were really tough. Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?

    None of this is to say I even agree with what the Welsh government is doing. I'm only talking about the force of the reaction which, well, seems to be a blend of genuine and inflated outrage.

    I'm posting this in the knowledge that I'll be accused of being an apologist to fascism or something, so before you fly off the handle (replacement handles should be available on Amazon.co.uk for under £20), just take the time to check you are disagreeing with something I have actually said.

    Given the apparent ineffectiveness so far of the approach in England, I do agree with what the Welsh Government is doing. I suspect that much of the criticism on here is driven by people who don't like Drakeford and are therefore jumping at the chance to avoid seeing the wood for the trees by citing spurious examples of minor inconvenience from shopping restrictions.

    What Drakeford has done is to curtail shopping as an indoor leisure activity for 17 days as part of an intense lockdown of short duration. For an effective circuit breaker, I don't see how you can do anything else but minimise interactions in major stores. For non-exempt goods, the vast majority of affected potential purchases will be discretionary ones, and people will have to either put those off for a couple of weeks or order for delivery with a wait of a couple of days. Other than for something really essential, most people will wait and independent retailers will still have a chance to compete with the big chains for that custom in due course. So it protects small retailers market share as much as you can in the circumstances of a circuit breaker.

    The restrictions in England will in my view last many more months without being effective and that duration makes them unbelieveably costly even though they may still destroy some businesses for good. There isn't an end date for those restrictions or even know criteria for ending them. England is in limbo until the new year, and the scale of the restrictions is slowly extending across the country. There are reports today that the Government are working up a Tier 4 as they suspect that even Tier 3 will prove ineffective.

    We should all be thankful that Wales is at least trying out a contrasting strategy, piloting a much more intensive alternative which if it works will apply restrictions for a far shorter period. If it works, it will get the virus down to low levels, sufficient give otherwise overwhelmed systems a chance to contain it in Wales, so long as it doesn't spread back in from England. If the Welsh approach fails, then in a few weeks we'll know that there's not going to be much point of trying to apply it the remaining 95% of the UK population either, and only then will Drakeford deserve criticism especially if he persists with that approach regardless.
    Picking holes and willing the fire break to fail helps to confirm Johnson was right all along.

    I have my doubts that it is long enough to work.

    Hopefully Johnson will be lucky and Tiers 2 and 3 do the business for England.
    On a serious note these missteps by Drakeford have made it very hard, if not impossible, to repeat it
    I wasn't defending Johnson's strategy as opposed to the Welsh one. I hope they both work. On that note, I unfortunately expect neither to deliver to expectations. I fear the Welsh strategy will just work less badly than Johnson's.
  • Sorry Mystic Rose but my threads tomorrow will be about this.

    Mark Morrison 'seriously considering' challenging Peter Soulsby to become next mayor of Leicester

    'If I run against him, I win, easy’.

    https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/leicester-news/mark-morrison-seriously-considering-challenging-4615337


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uB1D9wWxd2w
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129

    Given the comments about Drakeford on here, how many seats will Labour have in next year's Senedd election?

    I'm guessing they'll finish no higher than fourth?

    Funny.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    edited October 2020

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:
    It's Luntz.

    I wonder if the Republican boosters of Trump's chances aren't actually keeping the Biden camp on their toes right up to the tape. Could be helping Biden.
    If they are shy Trump voters what difference would Biden's campaign make, they have already made up their minds to vote for Trump, they are just not telling anybody.

    Read the article
    Biden's campaign might not make a difference to committed Trump voters but the Trump boosters might keep the Biden GOTV operation on their toes. The relative turnout matters.

    The article won't persuade people to vote for Trump. It'll give Trump supporters some comfort, and fire up Biden supporters.
    Biden supporters are so fired up that literally dozens turn up to his rallies when he ventures out the basement. I read a report that half a dozen turned up to a Kamala Harris event. They were outnumbered by pro Trump hecklers apparently.

    How many times do you have to be told?

    The Biden campaign are purposely holding small events because you know they aren't arseholes and don't want their supporters to catch Covid-19.

    We rate the claim that photos of Biden's small campaign events show a low-turnout rally as MISSING CONTEXT. Biden is hosting smaller campaign events than Trump, but it has significantly more to do with his adherence to social distancing guidelines rather than his lack of popularity.

    https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/09/22/fact-check-joe-biden-events-smaller-because-covid-19/5780898002/

    But you keep pushing your bullshit.
    F8ck me how gullible are you....
    Not as gullible as you.

    I remember when you defended coked up racists, you haven't changed a bit.
    I refuse to believe anyone defended Don Jr.
    Even allegedly.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172



    Given the apparent ineffectiveness so far of the approach in England, I do agree with what the Welsh Government is doing. I suspect that much of the criticism on here is driven by people who don't like Drakeford and are therefore jumping at the chance to avoid seeing the wood for the trees by citing spurious examples of minor inconvenience from shopping restrictions.

    What Drakeford has done is to curtail shopping as an indoor leisure activity for 17 days as part of an intense lockdown of short duration. For an effective circuit breaker, I don't see how you can do anything else but minimise interactions in major stores. For non-exempt goods, the vast majority of affected potential purchases will be discretionary ones, and people will have to either put those off for a couple of weeks or order for delivery with a wait of a couple of days. Other than for something really essential, most people will wait and independent retailers will still have a chance to compete with the big chains for that custom in due course. So it protects small retailers market share as much as you can in the circumstances of a circuit breaker.

    The restrictions in England will in my view last many more months without being effective and that duration makes them unbelieveably costly even though they may still destroy some businesses for good. There isn't an end date for those restrictions or even know criteria for ending them. England is in limbo until the new year, and the scale of the restrictions is slowly extending across the country. There are reports today that the Government are working up a Tier 4 as they suspect that even Tier 3 will prove ineffective.

    which if it works will apply restrictions for a far shorter period. If it works, it will get the virus down to low levels, sufficient give otherwise overwhelmed systems a chance to contain it in Wales, so long as it doesn't spread back in from England. If the Welsh approach fails, then in a few weeks we'll know that there's not going to be much point of trying to apply it the remaining 95% of the UK population either, and only then will Drakeford deserve criticism especially if he persists with that approach regardless.

    ‘Garden Centres’ has been listed as non-essential retail and have been closed as part of the firebreak lockdown. Garden centres will have to throw plants out.

    My grandfather (Welsh working class to his fingertips) loved his allotment. As still do many across in the old industrial of parts of South Wales. Those who have an allotment will know that the next two weeks are when you should be planting your peas, beans, garlic, winter salads, asparagus, rhubarb or anything under cold frames.

    This is a very short planting window as there will be frost after the fire-break ends (if it even ends when Drakeford says).

    It gives an insight into the thinking of Labour and the Welsh Government. Drakeford and Gething probably only visit a garden centre to sip a skinny latte or buy a Goddamn stinking scented candle.

    If there is any evidence that Garden Centres or gardening or allotments play any role in transmission of the disease, do provide it.

    "We should all be thankful that Wales is at least trying out a contrasting strategy, piloting a much more intensive alternative ...."

    You seem to think the Welsh will be grateful to be the lab rats in Drakeford's experiment.😩
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    Given the comments about Drakeford on here, how many seats will Labour have in next year's Senedd election?

    I'm guessing they'll finish no higher than fourth?

    Put up a donkey with a red rosette and the Valleys will vote for it. Admittedly, a donkey might be a better choice than Drakeford.

    But they might just finish second if all the stars align for the Tories. They would need to sweep up all the Brexit vote, and hope Plaid split the Labour vote in a few key safe Labour seats like Llanelli and Blaenau Gwent, but it could be done.

    However, short of a 2015 style SNP surge it is very hard to see any government being formed after that that doesn’t involve Labour somehow.
  • Nigelb said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:
    It's Luntz.

    I wonder if the Republican boosters of Trump's chances aren't actually keeping the Biden camp on their toes right up to the tape. Could be helping Biden.
    If they are shy Trump voters what difference would Biden's campaign make, they have already made up their minds to vote for Trump, they are just not telling anybody.

    Read the article
    Biden's campaign might not make a difference to committed Trump voters but the Trump boosters might keep the Biden GOTV operation on their toes. The relative turnout matters.

    The article won't persuade people to vote for Trump. It'll give Trump supporters some comfort, and fire up Biden supporters.
    Biden supporters are so fired up that literally dozens turn up to his rallies when he ventures out the basement. I read a report that half a dozen turned up to a Kamala Harris event. They were outnumbered by pro Trump hecklers apparently.

    How many times do you have to be told?

    The Biden campaign are purposely holding small events because you know they aren't arseholes and don't want their supporters to catch Covid-19.

    We rate the claim that photos of Biden's small campaign events show a low-turnout rally as MISSING CONTEXT. Biden is hosting smaller campaign events than Trump, but it has significantly more to do with his adherence to social distancing guidelines rather than his lack of popularity.

    https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/09/22/fact-check-joe-biden-events-smaller-because-covid-19/5780898002/

    But you keep pushing your bullshit.
    F8ck me how gullible are you....
    Not as gullible as you.

    I remember when you defended coked up racists, you haven't changed a bit.
    I refuse to believe anyone defended Don Jr.
    Heh.

    I'm still tickled by John Oliver's comment on Don Jr

    'Don Jnr is the worst human being in the world named Donald Trump, which is some achievement.'
  • 23,012 new cases.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    I've been really trying to get on board with the indignation being levelled at the Welsh government, but I can't help feeling like people are working themselves up into a bit too much of a froth about it.
    I'm fully behind the fact that there are absurdities; that is very clear to almost everyone. But at the same time, we are still in a crisis, and a few temporary privations aren't the end of the world.

    The kettle one is a great example. Some time ago I was left alone for a week without a kettle. The other half, for reasons that still elude me today, took our only kettle with on a business trip to Scotland. For a week, I had to use a pan to boil water. It wasn't ideal but it wasn't the end of the world. We often hear talk about how some people lack the Blitz spirit, or that some people are too soft and wouldn't have been able to survive when things were really tough. Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?

    None of this is to say I even agree with what the Welsh government is doing. I'm only talking about the force of the reaction which, well, seems to be a blend of genuine and inflated outrage.

    I'm posting this in the knowledge that I'll be accused of being an apologist to fascism or something, so before you fly off the handle (replacement handles should be available on Amazon.co.uk for under £20), just take the time to check you are disagreeing with something I have actually said.

    Given the apparent ineffectiveness so far of the approach in England, I do agree with what the Welsh Government is doing. I suspect that much of the criticism on here is driven by people who don't like Drakeford and are therefore jumping at the chance to avoid seeing the wood for the trees by citing spurious examples of minor inconvenience from shopping restrictions.

    What Drakeford has done is to curtail shopping as an indoor leisure activity for 17 days as part of an intense lockdown of short duration. For an effective circuit breaker, I don't see how you can do anything else but minimise interactions in major stores. For non-exempt goods, the vast majority of affected potential purchases will be discretionary ones, and people will have to either put those off for a couple of weeks or order for delivery with a wait of a couple of days. Other than for something really essential, most people will wait and independent retailers will still have a chance to compete with the big chains for that custom in due course. So it protects small retailers market share as much as you can in the circumstances of a circuit breaker.

    The restrictions in England will in my view last many more months without being effective and that duration makes them unbelieveably costly even though they may still destroy some businesses for good. There isn't an end date for those restrictions or even know criteria for ending them. England is in limbo until the new year, and the scale of the restrictions is slowly extending across the country. There are reports today that the Government are working up a Tier 4 as they suspect that even Tier 3 will prove ineffective.

    We should all be thankful that Wales is at least trying out a contrasting strategy, piloting a much more intensive alternative which if it works will apply restrictions for a far shorter period. If it works, it will get the virus down to low levels, sufficient give otherwise overwhelmed systems a chance to contain it in Wales, so long as it doesn't spread back in from England. If the Welsh approach fails, then in a few weeks we'll know that there's not going to be much point of trying to apply it the remaining 95% of the UK population either, and only then will Drakeford deserve criticism especially if he persists with that approach regardless.
    You should live here and listen to the anger

    English police stopping cars in England and reporting them to Wales police is going down like a lead balloon

    And as for Facebook and social media the photographs of the insides of Supermarkets is causing uproar, very uncomplimentary jokes about Drakeford, and of course the supermarket customers are witnessing the stupidity of it for themselves
    I am glad that some are complaining about it, because it sounds like Drakeford's measures might just stand a chance of scaling back shopping interactions in major retail stores to a significant extent.

    I suggest you wait for a few weeks and then pass judgement.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,775
    DavidL said:

    Omnium said:

    DavidL said:

    Don’t forget readers that your clocks go back 1 hour tonight unless you live in Scotland in which event they go back 60 minutes.

    That's half a haggis of extra cost for those that power their clocks that way.

    You're really not getting this are you? 60 minutes means half a haggis less thanks to the extraordinary generosity and commitment of the Scottish Government protecting us from the powers that be (for now).

    #SNP: different for the sake of it.
    I dunno - Haggis powered clocks - I rather liked it.

    The Scottish Government are doing what they think is wise. Commitment certainly - no government is ever generous though. Sturgeon thought she'd got this, but then realised she didn't - she looks shattered, and I like her more for that.

    I presume the SNP think they're different for the sake of Scotland. I'd not argue that, but I'd hope that Scotland doesn't need to be so different.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Another cracking article by Applebaum, on the characters behind the Biden smears.

    You’re Not Supposed to Understand the Rumors About Biden
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/smears-against-biden-dont-need-make-any-sense/616824/
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858

    DavidL said:

    Don’t forget readers that your clocks go back 1 hour tonight unless you live in Scotland in which event they go back 60 minutes.

    I'm not putting back my clocks this evening, no way do I want an extra hour of 2020.
    Not sure that's how it works:
    https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=trainspotting+2+daylight+saving+spud&&view=detail&mid=B172D0C5CDCFBC8AD615B172D0C5CDCFBC8AD615&&FORM=VRDGAR&ru=/videos/search?q=trainspotting%202%20daylight%20saving%20spud&qs=n&form=QBVR&sp=-1&pq=trainspotting%202%20daylight%20saving%20spud&sc=0-36&sk=&cvid=445799E5C11243A4B02ED42EFC2FF39B
  • ydoethur said:

    Given the comments about Drakeford on here, how many seats will Labour have in next year's Senedd election?

    I'm guessing they'll finish no higher than fourth?

    Put up a donkey with a red rosette and the Valleys will vote for it. Admittedly, a donkey might be a better choice than Drakeford.

    But they might just finish second if all the stars align for the Tories. They would need to sweep up all the Brexit vote, and hope Plaid split the Labour vote in a few key safe Labour seats like Llanelli and Blaenau Gwent, but it could be done.

    However, short of a 2015 style SNP surge it is very hard to see any government being formed after that that doesn’t involve Labour somehow.
    So if the Welsh are that stupid/gullible I guess Drakeford is wise to ensure people in Wales are welded inside their homes, because that level of stupidity of the average Welsh person means they are guaranteed to catch Covid-19.
  • Roy_G_Biv said:

    I've been really trying to get on board with the indignation being levelled at the Welsh government, but I can't help feeling like people are working themselves up into a bit too much of a froth about it.
    I'm fully behind the fact that there are absurdities; that is very clear to almost everyone. But at the same time, we are still in a crisis, and a few temporary privations aren't the end of the world.

    The kettle one is a great example. Some time ago I was left alone for a week without a kettle. The other half, for reasons that still elude me today, took our only kettle with on a business trip to Scotland. For a week, I had to use a pan to boil water. It wasn't ideal but it wasn't the end of the world. We often hear talk about how some people lack the Blitz spirit, or that some people are too soft and wouldn't have been able to survive when things were really tough. Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?

    None of this is to say I even agree with what the Welsh government is doing. I'm only talking about the force of the reaction which, well, seems to be a blend of genuine and inflated outrage.

    I'm posting this in the knowledge that I'll be accused of being an apologist to fascism or something, so before you fly off the handle (replacement handles should be available on Amazon.co.uk for under £20), just take the time to check you are disagreeing with something I have actually said.

    Given the apparent ineffectiveness so far of the approach in England, I do agree with what the Welsh Government is doing. I suspect that much of the criticism on here is driven by people who don't like Drakeford and are therefore jumping at the chance to avoid seeing the wood for the trees by citing spurious examples of minor inconvenience from shopping restrictions.

    What Drakeford has done is to curtail shopping as an indoor leisure activity for 17 days as part of an intense lockdown of short duration. For an effective circuit breaker, I don't see how you can do anything else but minimise interactions in major stores. For non-exempt goods, the vast majority of affected potential purchases will be discretionary ones, and people will have to either put those off for a couple of weeks or order for delivery with a wait of a couple of days. Other than for something really essential, most people will wait and independent retailers will still have a chance to compete with the big chains for that custom in due course. So it protects small retailers market share as much as you can in the circumstances of a circuit breaker.

    The restrictions in England will in my view last many more months without being effective and that duration makes them unbelieveably costly even though they may still destroy some businesses for good. There isn't an end date for those restrictions or even know criteria for ending them. England is in limbo until the new year, and the scale of the restrictions is slowly extending across the country. There are reports today that the Government are working up a Tier 4 as they suspect that even Tier 3 will prove ineffective.

    We should all be thankful that Wales is at least trying out a contrasting strategy, piloting a much more intensive alternative which if it works will apply restrictions for a far shorter period. If it works, it will get the virus down to low levels, sufficient give otherwise overwhelmed systems a chance to contain it in Wales, so long as it doesn't spread back in from England. If the Welsh approach fails, then in a few weeks we'll know that there's not going to be much point of trying to apply it the remaining 95% of the UK population either, and only then will Drakeford deserve criticism especially if he persists with that approach regardless.
    You should live here and listen to the anger

    English police stopping cars in England and reporting them to Wales police is going down like a lead balloon

    And as for Facebook and social media the photographs of the insides of Supermarkets is causing uproar, very uncomplimentary jokes about Drakeford, and of course the supermarket customers are witnessing the stupidity of it for themselves
    I am glad that some are complaining about it, because it sounds like Drakeford's measures might just stand a chance of scaling back shopping interactions in major retail stores to a significant extent.

    I suggest you wait for a few weeks and then pass judgement.
    No - they just hand it to Amazon
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is my nightmare scenario, Biden getting close in places like Texas, but not getting votes where it counts.


    So Biden wins the popular vote by 7% and Trump wins the electoral college.

    State poll averages in MI, WI and PA not moved greatly, 0.4-0.7 in the last 5 days. So not showing the same tend of 2016 in MI and PA (WI had next to no polling done) that showed the narrowing 10 days from election day that gave trump the very narrow victories he gained in those three.


    That might change and we should see any movement on Monday/Tuesday as undecideds start to break and movement from the final debate. If there is no to little change then either Trump is in real trouble or the polls are even further out in those states than last time.

    If those 3 stay steady, Biden could if he wanted do a late push in TX, GA, FL, NC, AZ, IA, OH forcing Trump to defend. If they do move Biden will need to try and halt that movement. With NC and AZ still showing some if narrow down air Biden has the advantage as of today, Trump routes to victory remain few and needs a number of things to fall his way.

    Right now only the shadow of 2016 is making me nervous.
    RCP Wisconsin final 2016 poll average Clinton + 6.5%, now Biden +4.6%
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_biden-6849.html

    RCP Michigan final 2016 poll average Clinton +3.6%, now Biden +7.8%
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton-5533.html
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_biden-6761.html

    RCP Pennsylvania final 2016 poll average Clinton +2.1%, now Biden +5.1%
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html

    So on the same error as 2016 Biden will pick up Pennsylvania, narrowly scrape home in Michigan but Trump will hold Wisconsin and if he holds his other 2016 states too then Trump would be re elected 269 to 269 in the EC even with Biden winning the popular vote by more than Hillary did nationally
    I notice you keep referring to WH2016 and not to more recent national elections, the 2018 midterms, where the pollsters got it pretty right.
    The 2018 midterms are not a valid comparison as Trump was not on the ballot, there was no shy GOP vote in 2018 or 2014 just as there was no shy Romney vote in 2012, there was a shy Trump vote in 2016 though, especially in Michigan and Wisconsin
    And that shy Trump vote is adjusted for this time.

    So unless they've gone blushingly reticent ...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    ydoethur said:

    Given the comments about Drakeford on here, how many seats will Labour have in next year's Senedd election?

    I'm guessing they'll finish no higher than fourth?

    Put up a donkey with a red rosette and the Valleys will vote for it. Admittedly, a donkey might be a better choice than Drakeford.

    But they might just finish second if all the stars align for the Tories. They would need to sweep up all the Brexit vote, and hope Plaid split the Labour vote in a few key safe Labour seats like Llanelli and Blaenau Gwent, but it could be done.

    However, short of a 2015 style SNP surge it is very hard to see any government being formed after that that doesn’t involve Labour somehow.
    True, although as the red wall told us, the red rosette on a donkey (Jim Griffiths, Denzil Davies RIP) no longer works.

    I have been banging on for months that incumbency is a hinderance post pandemic, therefore Welsh Labour should be well and truly in the cart. However, does Conservative incompetence in Westminster Trump Labour incompetence in Cardiff Bay?
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Don’t forget readers that your clocks go back 1 hour tonight unless you live in Scotland in which event they go back 60 minutes.

    I'm not putting back my clocks this evening, no way do I want an extra hour of 2020.
    Not sure that's how it works:
    https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=trainspotting+2+daylight+saving+spud&&view=detail&mid=B172D0C5CDCFBC8AD615B172D0C5CDCFBC8AD615&&FORM=VRDGAR&ru=/videos/search?q=trainspotting%202%20daylight%20saving%20spud&qs=n&form=QBVR&sp=-1&pq=trainspotting%202%20daylight%20saving%20spud&sc=0-36&sk=&cvid=445799E5C11243A4B02ED42EFC2FF39B
    Well that's how it should work.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    Nigelb said:

    Another cracking article by Applebaum, on the characters behind the Biden smears.

    You’re Not Supposed to Understand the Rumors About Biden
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/smears-against-biden-dont-need-make-any-sense/616824/

    She's just an excellent writer. Her piece about the collaborators was just outstanding.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    HYUFD said:
    Suspect a bad line and he misheard -

    "Piers, I'm going to St Quentin."
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,378

    Repost, FPT

    welshowl said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sky confirm the English police will stop Welsh cars and if they do not have grounds to have crossed the border they will be reported to the Welsh police for prosecution

    This is massive overreaction along with restricting supermarket non essential food sales driving business to Amazon. I can buy most things on Amazon on Prime and they are here the next day

    Why the actual fuck are English police following the orders of Mark Drakeford?

    And moreover, why are they following such bloody stupid orders?
    So are they actually using ANPR (number plate recognition) or are they just seeing if your numbers plate starts with a C (I happen to have an English number plate) Either way this is complete dictatorial madness.
    It is possible that Drakeford is a Plaid Cymru double agent.

    First, the intervention of the English police (WTF) arresting Welsh people in Gloucestershire or the Forest of Dean is predictably generating huge anger in Wales.

    And second, the more punitive and costly are Drakeford's lockdowns, the more English taxpayers will baulk at picking up the bills. The comments from some English journalists on the Welsh Government are beginning to resemble the vituperation normally reserved for the Scottish Government.

    Devolution never killed anything stone-dead, it was always going to tear us apart.

    But Drakeford ... WTF .... banning the sale of books .... books of all things (as posted here yesterday by williamglenn).

    I have never heard of anything so stupid. Books are a great way to pass the time in lockdown, but we can only get them from dependable Jeff Bezos.

    I wonder if, as his final act as a Plaid Cymru double agent, Drakeford could take down Welsh Labour.


    Drakeford does seem to be an arse. One of those officials who is determined to be as stubborn, petty, and obstructive as he possibly can be towards the public.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Andy_JS said:

    Latest Betfair Exchange odds imply five states to change hands: PA, WI, MI, AZ, NC.

    That will do - but I'd be a touch disappointed.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Has HYUFD given his reasoning for WHY Trafalgar did so badly in 2018 Mid-terms? I mean, after all, if their method is so superior then they must have some very good base data from which they can then import their "shy Trump" adjustment.

    Is he suggesting that for some reason they were under the impression that Trump was on the ballot in 2018 and made the mistake of including the "adjustment" to their sound base data?

    Or is it in reality that their base date, if it exists at all, is just a crock of sh*t? Or that the base data is just what other pollsters do with 6pts added to Trump? In which case he should perhaps answer the question i have repeatedly asked him about what he thinks the impact is of the changes in methodology that most pollsters have made since 2016... Which might rather undermine the Trafalgar "model"...

    They weren't that bad even in 2018, they correctly had DeSantis winning Florida unlike other pollsters they only got Georgia really badly wrong and in the article I linked to he admits that but overall they still were far better at identifying the shy Trump vote in 2016 than other pollsters were, especially in the rustbelt

    In every poll that I have seen that has asked Americans how they think their neighbours are voting, Trump has a huge lead.

    Indicative of a shy Trump factor? has to be, for me.
    I don't follow that. If Americans think their neighbours are voting Trump, it doesn't indicate that their neighbours are shy. Quite the opposite.
    Massive difference between your neighbour and a pollster. Ask the honest pollsters how easy it is to get responses from some big Trump supporting rural areas in swing states.

    Some firms don;t even bother. They just poll the liberal cities. That's why I reckon they are a country mile out.
    Which firms don't poll rural areas? Nate Cohn who does the NYT polling has been tweeting maps of where their respondents are, they're definitely not limited to liberal cities...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,378
    Cyclefree said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    I've been really trying to get on board with the indignation being levelled at the Welsh government, but I can't help feeling like people are working themselves up into a bit too much of a froth about it.
    I'm fully behind the fact that there are absurdities; that is very clear to almost everyone. But at the same time, we are still in a crisis, and a few temporary privations aren't the end of the world.

    The kettle one is a great example. Some time ago I was left alone for a week without a kettle. The other half, for reasons that still elude me today, took our only kettle with on a business trip to Scotland. For a week, I had to use a pan to boil water. It wasn't ideal but it wasn't the end of the world. We often hear talk about how some people lack the Blitz spirit, or that some people are too soft and wouldn't have been able to survive when things were really tough. Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?

    None of this is to say I even agree with what the Welsh government is doing. I'm only talking about the force of the reaction which, well, seems to be a blend of genuine and inflated outrage.

    I'm posting this in the knowledge that I'll be accused of being an apologist to fascism or something, so before you fly off the handle (replacement handles should be available on Amazon.co.uk for under £20), just take the time to check you are disagreeing with something I have actually said.

    The issue is not whether you can do without it. The issue is whether what the Welsh government is doing is legal under the regulations it has brought in. And as far as I can see it isn’t.

    Also, I wonder whether it is legal for police to try to stop people travelling between England and Wales.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,775
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:
    Suspect a bad line and he misheard -

    "Piers, I'm going to St Quentin."
    After 24 minutes and 50 seconds of 'please hold' and canned music you can forgive his confusion.
  • The Welsh dragon is unleashed: Furious Tesco shopper tears away plastic sheets and asks how children's clothes are 'non-essential' in run-up to winter under Wales's 'disgraceful' Covid rules

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8875185/Moment-furious-Tesco-shopper-yells-rip-f-ers-tears-plastic-items-Wales.html
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884
    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    I've been really trying to get on board with the indignation being levelled at the Welsh government, but I can't help feeling like people are working themselves up into a bit too much of a froth about it.
    I'm fully behind the fact that there are absurdities; that is very clear to almost everyone. But at the same time, we are still in a crisis, and a few temporary privations aren't the end of the world.

    The kettle one is a great example. Some time ago I was left alone for a week without a kettle. The other half, for reasons that still elude me today, took our only kettle with on a business trip to Scotland. For a week, I had to use a pan to boil water. It wasn't ideal but it wasn't the end of the world. We often hear talk about how some people lack the Blitz spirit, or that some people are too soft and wouldn't have been able to survive when things were really tough. Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?

    None of this is to say I even agree with what the Welsh government is doing. I'm only talking about the force of the reaction which, well, seems to be a blend of genuine and inflated outrage.

    I'm posting this in the knowledge that I'll be accused of being an apologist to fascism or something, so before you fly off the handle (replacement handles should be available on Amazon.co.uk for under £20), just take the time to check you are disagreeing with something I have actually said.

    The issue is not whether you can do without it. The issue is whether what the Welsh government is doing is legal under the regulations it has brought in. And as far as I can see it isn’t.

    Also, I wonder whether it is legal for police to try to stop people travelling between England and Wales.
    Different in different directions, mind.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Latest Betfair Exchange odds imply five states to change hands: PA, WI, MI, AZ, NC.

    That will do - but I'd be a touch disappointed.
    The Betfair state markets are remarkably illiquid and lumpy. Ladbrokes is probably a better guide of where the market is at.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Has HYUFD given his reasoning for WHY Trafalgar did so badly in 2018 Mid-terms? I mean, after all, if their method is so superior then they must have some very good base data from which they can then import their "shy Trump" adjustment.

    Is he suggesting that for some reason they were under the impression that Trump was on the ballot in 2018 and made the mistake of including the "adjustment" to their sound base data?

    Or is it in reality that their base date, if it exists at all, is just a crock of sh*t? Or that the base data is just what other pollsters do with 6pts added to Trump? In which case he should perhaps answer the question i have repeatedly asked him about what he thinks the impact is of the changes in methodology that most pollsters have made since 2016... Which might rather undermine the Trafalgar "model"...

    They weren't that bad even in 2018, they correctly had DeSantis winning Florida unlike other pollsters they only got Georgia really badly wrong and in the article I linked to he admits that but overall they still were far better at identifying the shy Trump vote in 2016 than other pollsters were, especially in the rustbelt

    In every poll that I have seen that has asked Americans how they think their neighbours are voting, Trump has a huge lead.

    Indicative of a shy Trump factor? has to be, for me.
    I don't follow that. If Americans think their neighbours are voting Trump, it doesn't indicate that their neighbours are shy. Quite the opposite.
    Massive difference between your neighbour and a pollster. Ask the honest pollsters how easy it is to get responses from some big Trump supporting rural areas in swing states.

    Some firms don;t even bother. They just poll the liberal cities. That's why I reckon they are a country mile out.
    Which firms don't poll rural areas? Nate Cohn who does the NYT polling has been tweeting maps of where their respondents are, they're definitely not limited to liberal cities...
    Clearly faked in contrarian world.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:
    It's Cahaly and Trafalgar again isn't it?
    Don't need the "and". The guy IS Trafalgar and Trafalgar is him.

    He'll be eating that bow tie on Nov 4th.
  • Can we exile Chris Robshaw and the rest of these morons to Wales?

    https://twitter.com/EdwardB24376757/status/1319909115997622276
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Obama only won North Carolina by 0.32% in 2008 and lost it to Romney

    That Biden is favourite to win is huge
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    Can we exile Chris Robshaw and the rest of these morons to Wales?

    https://twitter.com/EdwardB24376757/status/1319909115997622276

    Wales has enough problems right now. Send them to Skegness.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,671
    edited October 2020
    Alistair said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Has HYUFD given his reasoning for WHY Trafalgar did so badly in 2018 Mid-terms? I mean, after all, if their method is so superior then they must have some very good base data from which they can then import their "shy Trump" adjustment.

    Is he suggesting that for some reason they were under the impression that Trump was on the ballot in 2018 and made the mistake of including the "adjustment" to their sound base data?

    Or is it in reality that their base date, if it exists at all, is just a crock of sh*t? Or that the base data is just what other pollsters do with 6pts added to Trump? In which case he should perhaps answer the question i have repeatedly asked him about what he thinks the impact is of the changes in methodology that most pollsters have made since 2016... Which might rather undermine the Trafalgar "model"...

    They weren't that bad even in 2018, they correctly had DeSantis winning Florida unlike other pollsters they only got Georgia really badly wrong and in the article I linked to he admits that but overall they still were far better at identifying the shy Trump vote in 2016 than other pollsters were, especially in the rustbelt

    In every poll that I have seen that has asked Americans how they think their neighbours are voting, Trump has a huge lead.

    Indicative of a shy Trump factor? has to be, for me.
    I don't follow that. If Americans think their neighbours are voting Trump, it doesn't indicate that their neighbours are shy. Quite the opposite.
    Massive difference between your neighbour and a pollster. Ask the honest pollsters how easy it is to get responses from some big Trump supporting rural areas in swing states.

    Some firms don;t even bother. They just poll the liberal cities. That's why I reckon they are a country mile out.
    Which firms don't poll rural areas? Nate Cohn who does the NYT polling has been tweeting maps of where their respondents are, they're definitely not limited to liberal cities...
    Clearly faked in contrarian world.
    It also doesn't explain why the national polls and the polls in 2018 were largely spot on.

    Perhaps he'll share his wisdom (sic) with us all.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    HYUFD said:
    Mr Trafalgar again!

    You don't give up. A hundred lines for you "Trafalgar are not a polling organisation, if Robert Cahaly calls it correctly for Trump, it was a good guess".
    IF Trump wins, I don;t think anybody gets to be called a polling organisation....
    No. Put the sector in the bin if that happens.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883



    Given the apparent ineffectiveness so far of the approach in England, I do agree with what the Welsh Government is doing. I suspect that much of the criticism on here is driven by people who don't like Drakeford and are therefore jumping at the chance to avoid seeing the wood for the trees by citing spurious examples of minor inconvenience from shopping restrictions.

    What Drakeford has done is to curtail shopping as an indoor leisure activity for 17 days as part of an intense lockdown of short duration. For an effective circuit breaker, I don't see how you can do anything else but minimise interactions in major stores. For non-exempt goods, the vast majority of affected potential purchases will be discretionary ones, and people will have to either put those off for a couple of weeks or order for delivery with a wait of a couple of days. Other than for something really essential, most people will wait and independent retailers will still have a chance to compete with the big chains for that custom in due course. So it protects small retailers market share as much as you can in the circumstances of a circuit breaker.

    The restrictions in England will in my view last many more months without being effective and that duration makes them unbelieveably costly even though they may still destroy some businesses for good. There isn't an end date for those restrictions or even know criteria for ending them. England is in limbo until the new year, and the scale of the restrictions is slowly extending across the country. There are reports today that the Government are working up a Tier 4 as they suspect that even Tier 3 will prove ineffective.

    which if it works will apply restrictions for a far shorter period. If it works, it will get the virus down to low levels, sufficient give otherwise overwhelmed systems a chance to contain it in Wales, so long as it doesn't spread back in from England. If the Welsh approach fails, then in a few weeks we'll know that there's not going to be much point of trying to apply it the remaining 95% of the UK population either, and only then will Drakeford deserve criticism especially if he persists with that approach regardless.

    ‘Garden Centres’ has been listed as non-essential retail and have been closed as part of the firebreak lockdown. Garden centres will have to throw plants out.

    My grandfather (Welsh working class to his fingertips) loved his allotment. As still do many across in the old industrial of parts of South Wales. Those who have an allotment will know that the next two weeks are when you should be planting your peas, beans, garlic, winter salads, asparagus, rhubarb or anything under cold frames.

    This is a very short planting window as there will be frost after the fire-break ends (if it even ends when Drakeford says).

    It gives an insight into the thinking of Labour and the Welsh Government. Drakeford and Gething probably only visit a garden centre to sip a skinny latte or buy a Goddamn stinking scented candle.

    If there is any evidence that Garden Centres or gardening or allotments play any role in transmission of the disease, do provide it.

    "We should all be thankful that Wales is at least trying out a contrasting strategy, piloting a much more intensive alternative ...."

    You seem to think the Welsh will be grateful to be the lab rats in Drakeford's experiment.😩
    Not sure why garden centres will need to throw plants out...they don't go off do they?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,594
    Alistair said:

    Obama only won North Carolina by 0.32% in 2008 and lost it to Romney

    That Biden is favourite to win is huge

    Biden winning North Carolina but not Pennsylvania might be an interesting bet. More likely than most punters expect probably.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The two simultaneous thoughts.

    1) Trump is wildly popular with massive rallies showing his massive popularity

    2) Trump supporters do not want to say they support Trump.
  • ydoethur said:

    Can we exile Chris Robshaw and the rest of these morons to Wales?

    https://twitter.com/EdwardB24376757/status/1319909115997622276

    Wales has enough problems right now. Send them to Skegness.
    Compromise and send them to Govan?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    I've been really trying to get on board with the indignation being levelled at the Welsh government, but I can't help feeling like people are working themselves up into a bit too much of a froth about it.
    I'm fully behind the fact that there are absurdities; that is very clear to almost everyone. But at the same time, we are still in a crisis, and a few temporary privations aren't the end of the world.

    The kettle one is a great example. Some time ago I was left alone for a week without a kettle. The other half, for reasons that still elude me today, took our only kettle with on a business trip to Scotland. For a week, I had to use a pan to boil water. It wasn't ideal but it wasn't the end of the world. We often hear talk about how some people lack the Blitz spirit, or that some people are too soft and wouldn't have been able to survive when things were really tough. Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?

    None of this is to say I even agree with what the Welsh government is doing. I'm only talking about the force of the reaction which, well, seems to be a blend of genuine and inflated outrage.

    I'm posting this in the knowledge that I'll be accused of being an apologist to fascism or something, so before you fly off the handle (replacement handles should be available on Amazon.co.uk for under £20), just take the time to check you are disagreeing with something I have actually said.

    Given the apparent ineffectiveness so far of the approach in England, I do agree with what the Welsh Government is doing. I suspect that much of the criticism on here is driven by people who don't like Drakeford and are therefore jumping at the chance to avoid seeing the wood for the trees by citing spurious examples of minor inconvenience from shopping restrictions.

    What Drakeford has done is to curtail shopping as an indoor leisure activity for 17 days as part of an intense lockdown of short duration. For an effective circuit breaker, I don't see how you can do anything else but minimise interactions in major stores. For non-exempt goods, the vast majority of affected potential purchases will be discretionary ones, and people will have to either put those off for a couple of weeks or order for delivery with a wait of a couple of days. Other than for something really essential, most people will wait and independent retailers will still have a chance to compete with the big chains for that custom in due course. So it protects small retailers market share as much as you can in the circumstances of a circuit breaker.

    The restrictions in England will in my view last many more months without being effective and that duration makes them unbelieveably costly even though they may still destroy some businesses for good. There isn't an end date for those restrictions or even know criteria for ending them. England is in limbo until the new year, and the scale of the restrictions is slowly extending across the country. There are reports today that the Government are working up a Tier 4 as they suspect that even Tier 3 will prove ineffective.

    We should all be thankful that Wales is at least trying out a contrasting strategy, piloting a much more intensive alternative which if it works will apply restrictions for a far shorter period. If it works, it will get the virus down to low levels, sufficient give otherwise overwhelmed systems a chance to contain it in Wales, so long as it doesn't spread back in from England. If the Welsh approach fails, then in a few weeks we'll know that there's not going to be much point of trying to apply it the remaining 95% of the UK population either, and only then will Drakeford deserve criticism especially if he persists with that approach regardless.
    You should live here and listen to the anger

    English police stopping cars in England and reporting them to Wales police is going down like a lead balloon

    And as for Facebook and social media the photographs of the insides of Supermarkets is causing uproar, very uncomplimentary jokes about Drakeford, and of course the supermarket customers are witnessing the stupidity of it for themselves
    I am glad that some are complaining about it, because it sounds like Drakeford's measures might just stand a chance of scaling back shopping interactions in major retail stores to a significant extent.

    I suggest you wait for a few weeks and then pass judgement.
    No - they just hand it to Amazon
    Big G. I exclusively used internet shopping for non essentials during Lockdown 1, not least because of the queues to get into supermarkets. I would have arranged an internet grocery shop too if there were any slots available.

    If one is desperate enough to queue for forty five minutes to get into a supermarket, I suspect one would be desperate enough to browse the tat.

    I used whatever grocery retailer that had the shortest queue, I did not hang around to look for Chinese kettles and Bangladeshi jeans.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    ydoethur said:

    Can we exile Chris Robshaw and the rest of these morons to Wales?

    https://twitter.com/EdwardB24376757/status/1319909115997622276

    Wales has enough problems right now. Send them to Skegness.
    Compromise and send them to Govan?
    Actually - compromise, and send them to Durham for an eye test.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Can we exile Chris Robshaw and the rest of these morons to Wales?

    https://twitter.com/EdwardB24376757/status/1319909115997622276

    Not even the first time Maitland has broken Covid restrictions.

    For such a fine rugby player he is a bit of a moron.
  • Alistair said:

    Can we exile Chris Robshaw and the rest of these morons to Wales?

    https://twitter.com/EdwardB24376757/status/1319909115997622276

    Not even the first time Maitland has broken Covid restrictions.

    For such a fine rugby player he is a bit of a moron.
    He's from New Zealand and they are good at the observing the Covid-19 regs, so clearly he's a moron.
  • Alistair said:

    The two simultaneous thoughts.

    1) Trump is wildly popular with massive rallies showing his massive popularity

    2) Trump supporters do not want to say they support Trump.

    I think those two things can easily be simultaneously true. There is a difference between Trump supporters and those that will vote Trump.

    We saw it here in 2017. There were Coryn supporters and there were Corbyn voters.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780



    Given the apparent ineffectiveness so far of the approach in England, I do agree with what the Welsh Government is doing. I suspect that much of the criticism on here is driven by people who don't like Drakeford and are therefore jumping at the chance to avoid seeing the wood for the trees by citing spurious examples of minor inconvenience from shopping restrictions.

    What Drakeford has done is to curtail shopping as an indoor leisure activity for 17 days as part of an intense lockdown of short duration. For an effective circuit breaker, I don't see how you can do anything else but minimise interactions in major stores. For non-exempt goods, the vast majority of affected potential purchases will be discretionary ones, and people will have to either put those off for a couple of weeks or order for delivery with a wait of a couple of days. Other than for something really essential, most people will wait and independent retailers will still have a chance to compete with the big chains for that custom in due course. So it protects small retailers market share as much as you can in the circumstances of a circuit breaker.

    The restrictions in England will in my view last many more months without being effective and that duration makes them unbelieveably costly even though they may still destroy some businesses for good. There isn't an end date for those restrictions or even know criteria for ending them. England is in limbo until the new year, and the scale of the restrictions is slowly extending across the country. There are reports today that the Government are working up a Tier 4 as they suspect that even Tier 3 will prove ineffective.

    which if it works will apply restrictions for a far shorter period. If it works, it will get the virus down to low levels, sufficient give otherwise overwhelmed systems a chance to contain it in Wales, so long as it doesn't spread back in from England. If the Welsh approach fails, then in a few weeks we'll know that there's not going to be much point of trying to apply it the remaining 95% of the UK population either, and only then will Drakeford deserve criticism especially if he persists with that approach regardless.

    ‘Garden Centres’ has been listed as non-essential retail and have been closed as part of the firebreak lockdown. Garden centres will have to throw plants out.

    My grandfather (Welsh working class to his fingertips) loved his allotment. As still do many across in the old industrial of parts of South Wales. Those who have an allotment will know that the next two weeks are when you should be planting your peas, beans, garlic, winter salads, asparagus, rhubarb or anything under cold frames.

    This is a very short planting window as there will be frost after the fire-break ends (if it even ends when Drakeford says).

    It gives an insight into the thinking of Labour and the Welsh Government. Drakeford and Gething probably only visit a garden centre to sip a skinny latte or buy a Goddamn stinking scented candle.

    If there is any evidence that Garden Centres or gardening or allotments play any role in transmission of the disease, do provide it.

    "We should all be thankful that Wales is at least trying out a contrasting strategy, piloting a much more intensive alternative ...."

    You seem to think the Welsh will be grateful to be the lab rats in Drakeford's experiment.😩
    They will if they works. Or are you so confident in Johnson's measures that you don't think it's even worth trying something different for a few weeks?

    Re your example. I suggest that, if it is really as time critical as you suggest, your allotment holder would:
    1. Have seen this coming and visited their local garden centre well before it closed yesterday.
    2. Get on the phone or internet today to order plug plants in by mail order, no doubt from the same wholesalers that supply the garden centre.
    That said, the allotment holders I know avoid expensive garden centres like the plague and grow their crops from seed, often from seed taken from the previous year's crops.

    By the way, you didn't seem so exercised when the Welsh were stopping cars driven by the English.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Dunno about you, but I can't help feeling that it's not a terribly good use of the time of a President of the USA, seeking re-election in a week and a half, to spend 25 minutes on the phone to Piers Morgan.

    Come to think of it, it wouldn't be a good use of anyone's time.

    To be fair no government minister has been on GMB for many months.
    So he must be doing something correct for HMG to boycott the show.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129

    Given the comments about Drakeford on here, how many seats will Labour have in next year's Senedd election?

    I'm guessing they'll finish no higher than fourth?

    Funny.
    Alistair said:

    The two simultaneous thoughts.

    1) Trump is wildly popular with massive rallies showing his massive popularity

    2) Trump supporters do not want to say they support Trump.

    Fair point, though perhaps it is a safety in numbers sort of situation.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830



    Given the apparent ineffectiveness so far of the approach in England, I do agree with what the Welsh Government is doing. I suspect that much of the criticism on here is driven by people who don't like Drakeford and are therefore jumping at the chance to avoid seeing the wood for the trees by citing spurious examples of minor inconvenience from shopping restrictions.

    What Drakeford has done is to curtail shopping as an indoor leisure activity for 17 days as part of an intense lockdown of short duration. For an effective circuit breaker, I don't see how you can do anything else but minimise interactions in major stores. For non-exempt goods, the vast majority of affected potential purchases will be discretionary ones, and people will have to either put those off for a couple of weeks or order for delivery with a wait of a couple of days. Other than for something really essential, most people will wait and independent retailers will still have a chance to compete with the big chains for that custom in due course. So it protects small retailers market share as much as you can in the circumstances of a circuit breaker.

    The restrictions in England will in my view last many more months without being effective and that duration makes them unbelieveably costly even though they may still destroy some businesses for good. There isn't an end date for those restrictions or even know criteria for ending them. England is in limbo until the new year, and the scale of the restrictions is slowly extending across the country. There are reports today that the Government are working up a Tier 4 as they suspect that even Tier 3 will prove ineffective.

    which if it works will apply restrictions for a far shorter period. If it works, it will get the virus down to low levels, sufficient give otherwise overwhelmed systems a chance to contain it in Wales, so long as it doesn't spread back in from England. If the Welsh approach fails, then in a few weeks we'll know that there's not going to be much point of trying to apply it the remaining 95% of the UK population either, and only then will Drakeford deserve criticism especially if he persists with that approach regardless.

    ‘Garden Centres’ has been listed as non-essential retail and have been closed as part of the firebreak lockdown. Garden centres will have to throw plants out.

    My grandfather (Welsh working class to his fingertips) loved his allotment. As still do many across in the old industrial of parts of South Wales. Those who have an allotment will know that the next two weeks are when you should be planting your peas, beans, garlic, winter salads, asparagus, rhubarb or anything under cold frames.

    This is a very short planting window as there will be frost after the fire-break ends (if it even ends when Drakeford says).

    It gives an insight into the thinking of Labour and the Welsh Government. Drakeford and Gething probably only visit a garden centre to sip a skinny latte or buy a Goddamn stinking scented candle.

    If there is any evidence that Garden Centres or gardening or allotments play any role in transmission of the disease, do provide it.

    "We should all be thankful that Wales is at least trying out a contrasting strategy, piloting a much more intensive alternative ...."

    You seem to think the Welsh will be grateful to be the lab rats in Drakeford's experiment.😩
    Not sure why garden centres will need to throw plants out...they don't go off do they?
    Annuals have the kind of lifespan their name suggests, and are only saleable for a short fraction of their limited lifespan because people want them young. Perennials last longer but will need potting on and giving storage space if it turns out you won't be able to sell them when you thought you would. Garden centres are not necessarily geared up to do this cost effectively, or at all.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    DavidL said:

    Don’t forget readers that your clocks go back 1 hour tonight unless you live in Scotland in which event they go back 60 minutes.

    A symbolic quirk I like which represents the turning of the warm part of the year to the cold one. Tweed cap on. Lager out, bitter in. Mushy peas with dinner instead of the normal ones. Dark at 5. Poirots and Marples on ITV3. Dem landslides. All of that stuff.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518



    Given the apparent ineffectiveness so far of the approach in England, I do agree with what the Welsh Government is doing. I suspect that much of the criticism on here is driven by people who don't like Drakeford and are therefore jumping at the chance to avoid seeing the wood for the trees by citing spurious examples of minor inconvenience from shopping restrictions.

    What Drakeford has done is to curtail shopping as an indoor leisure activity for 17 days as part of an intense lockdown of short duration. For an effective circuit breaker, I don't see how you can do anything else but minimise interactions in major stores. For non-exempt goods, the vast majority of affected potential purchases will be discretionary ones, and people will have to either put those off for a couple of weeks or order for delivery with a wait of a couple of days. Other than for something really essential, most people will wait and independent retailers will still have a chance to compete with the big chains for that custom in due course. So it protects small retailers market share as much as you can in the circumstances of a circuit breaker.

    The restrictions in England will in my view last many more months without being effective and that duration makes them unbelieveably costly even though they may still destroy some businesses for good. There isn't an end date for those restrictions or even know criteria for ending them. England is in limbo until the new year, and the scale of the restrictions is slowly extending across the country. There are reports today that the Government are working up a Tier 4 as they suspect that even Tier 3 will prove ineffective.

    which if it works will apply restrictions for a far shorter period. If it works, it will get the virus down to low levels, sufficient give otherwise overwhelmed systems a chance to contain it in Wales, so long as it doesn't spread back in from England. If the Welsh approach fails, then in a few weeks we'll know that there's not going to be much point of trying to apply it the remaining 95% of the UK population either, and only then will Drakeford deserve criticism especially if he persists with that approach regardless.

    ‘Garden Centres’ has been listed as non-essential retail and have been closed as part of the firebreak lockdown. Garden centres will have to throw plants out.

    My grandfather (Welsh working class to his fingertips) loved his allotment. As still do many across in the old industrial of parts of South Wales. Those who have an allotment will know that the next two weeks are when you should be planting your peas, beans, garlic, winter salads, asparagus, rhubarb or anything under cold frames.

    This is a very short planting window as there will be frost after the fire-break ends (if it even ends when Drakeford says).

    It gives an insight into the thinking of Labour and the Welsh Government. Drakeford and Gething probably only visit a garden centre to sip a skinny latte or buy a Goddamn stinking scented candle.

    If there is any evidence that Garden Centres or gardening or allotments play any role in transmission of the disease, do provide it.

    "We should all be thankful that Wales is at least trying out a contrasting strategy, piloting a much more intensive alternative ...."

    You seem to think the Welsh will be grateful to be the lab rats in Drakeford's experiment.😩
    Not sure why garden centres will need to throw plants out...they don't go off do they?
    Well if the time for planting passes, then probably, yes.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    I've been really trying to get on board with the indignation being levelled at the Welsh government, but I can't help feeling like people are working themselves up into a bit too much of a froth about it.
    I'm fully behind the fact that there are absurdities; that is very clear to almost everyone. But at the same time, we are still in a crisis, and a few temporary privations aren't the end of the world.

    The kettle one is a great example. Some time ago I was left alone for a week without a kettle. The other half, for reasons that still elude me today, took our only kettle with on a business trip to Scotland. For a week, I had to use a pan to boil water. It wasn't ideal but it wasn't the end of the world. We often hear talk about how some people lack the Blitz spirit, or that some people are too soft and wouldn't have been able to survive when things were really tough. Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?

    None of this is to say I even agree with what the Welsh government is doing. I'm only talking about the force of the reaction which, well, seems to be a blend of genuine and inflated outrage.

    I'm posting this in the knowledge that I'll be accused of being an apologist to fascism or something, so before you fly off the handle (replacement handles should be available on Amazon.co.uk for under £20), just take the time to check you are disagreeing with something I have actually said.

    The issue is not whether you can do without it. The issue is whether what the Welsh government is doing is legal under the regulations it has brought in. And as far as I can see it isn’t.

    Also, I wonder whether it is legal for police to try to stop people travelling between England and Wales.
    I thought they were just checking why they were travelling.
    Then if against the guidance , sending details to the Welsh Police.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Alistair said:

    The two simultaneous thoughts.

    1) Trump is wildly popular with massive rallies showing his massive popularity

    2) Trump supporters do not want to say they support Trump.

    People that go to the rallies are his biggest fans, by definition. Why are they going to be shy?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Do they not have desktop publishing in America? Why are all their polls numbers look like they scanned a sheet straight out of the typewriter.
  • Dunno about you, but I can't help feeling that it's not a terribly good use of the time of a President of the USA, seeking re-election in a week and a half, to spend 25 minutes on the phone to Piers Morgan.

    Come to think of it, it wouldn't be a good use of anyone's time.

    it kept him off Twitter for 25 minutes.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,390
    It sounds to me as if Drakeford's policy is worth a try. It's essentially the circuit breaker advocated by SAGE a month ago, so it's not just whimsical. I agree that it seems absurd that supermarkets can't sell their full range of goods. But that aside, this is a serious attempt to restrict virus spread.

    Those who are opposed to it should say what they would do instead. The virus looks fairly uncontrollable to me, and in England Tiers 3 and 2 will, I suspect, take a long time to have an impact.

    If the Welsh policy does work, and if the time is used to strengthen test/trace/isolate, as Drakeford has suggested, then England will probably follow. If it doesn't work, at least nobody can say they didn't try. You never know, Drakeford may still be the saviour of some sort of Christmas. Unlikely, I know - but possible.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Alistair said:

    Can we exile Chris Robshaw and the rest of these morons to Wales?

    https://twitter.com/EdwardB24376757/status/1319909115997622276

    Not even the first time Maitland has broken Covid restrictions.

    For such a fine rugby player he is a bit of a moron.
    Make him SPAD to the PM.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Report from a uni friend if mine still in Cardiff doing research at the university - the giant Tesco is ridiculous because the majority of it is now blocked off. People buying a shit load of booze, definitely going to be parties tonight.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    Alistair said:

    The two simultaneous thoughts.

    1) Trump is wildly popular with massive rallies showing his massive popularity

    2) Trump supporters do not want to say they support Trump.

    I think those two things can easily be simultaneously true. There is a difference between Trump supporters and those that will vote Trump.

    We saw it here in 2017. There were Coryn supporters and there were Corbyn voters.

    Corbyn held big rallies in 2019 and his supporters were similarly optimistic because the polls had been (massively) wrong in 2017. I think the valid parallel here is the assumption of Trump/Corbyn supporters that the next election's polling error will be in the same direction as in the last one.

    Michael Foot knew he was going to confound the polls in 1983 because of the evidence he saw before his eyes at his rallies of the faithful.
  • Dunno about you, but I can't help feeling that it's not a terribly good use of the time of a President of the USA, seeking re-election in a week and a half, to spend 25 minutes on the phone to Piers Morgan.

    Come to think of it, it wouldn't be a good use of anyone's time.

    it kept him off Twitter for 25 minutes.
    True, it might be his campaign managers finding harmless things he can do.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    Dunno about you, but I can't help feeling that it's not a terribly good use of the time of a President of the USA, seeking re-election in a week and a half, to spend 25 minutes on the phone to Piers Morgan.

    Come to think of it, it wouldn't be a good use of anyone's time.

    It's a brand new Piers though. He's calling time on the culture war.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    edited October 2020
  • I bet this is a headline you weren't expecting to see:

    https://twitter.com/katebevan/status/1319969958026149889
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Dunno about you, but I can't help feeling that it's not a terribly good use of the time of a President of the USA, seeking re-election in a week and a half, to spend 25 minutes on the phone to Piers Morgan.

    Come to think of it, it wouldn't be a good use of anyone's time.

    it kept him off Twitter for 25 minutes.
    True, it might be his campaign managers finding harmless things he can do.
    I loved the story that his campaign spent $1.6m on ads in Washington DC. Because that’s where Trump watches most of his television.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,671
    edited October 2020
    alex_ said:
    Florida, he voted in New York in 2016, he chose Florida for 2020 as New York is in the bag for him.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    alex_ said:
    Florida
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    alex_ said:
    Florida, he voted in New York in 2016, he chose Florida for 2020 as New York is in the bag for him.
    Or alternatively, whereas last time he was happy to project an air of confidence (look I can afford to cast my vote where it won’t matter), now (despite the public bravado) he’s worried.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    Such an honour that his party is intent on making it as hard as possible for minority voters to do it.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    It sounds to me as if Drakeford's policy is worth a try. It's essentially the circuit breaker advocated by SAGE a month ago, so it's not just whimsical. I agree that it seems absurd that supermarkets can't sell their full range of goods. But that aside, this is a serious attempt to restrict virus spread.

    Those who are opposed to it should say what they would do instead. The virus looks fairly uncontrollable to me, and in England Tiers 3 and 2 will, I suspect, take a long time to have an impact.

    If the Welsh policy does work, and if the time is used to strengthen test/trace/isolate, as Drakeford has suggested, then England will probably follow. If it doesn't work, at least nobody can say they didn't try. You never know, Drakeford may still be the saviour of some sort of Christmas. Unlikely, I know - but possible.

    If the incubation period is 14 days, then we KNOW at outset that a 2 week lockdown does not work. Jason Leitch has already said this concerning Scotland. It has to be a good deal longer than 2 weeks to work. We already know how quickly (or rather slowly) the COVID infection rate drops by 50 per cent. There have been innumerable lockdowns already.

    (I think Drakeford's lockdown won't be as effective as previous ones, because the compliance will be less good.)

    We also know what policies work (see South Korea or China). They have been explained on this site innumerable times.

    If Drakeford wanted to carry out a useful & bold experiment, radically different from England, he could. But, that would require real bravery.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    Such an honour that his party is intent on making it as hard as possible for minority voters to do it.
    Democracy is precious.

    So precious it must be rationed.

    With apologies to Lenin.
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998
    Cyclefree said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    I've been really trying to get on board with the indignation being levelled at the Welsh government, but I can't help feeling like people are working themselves up into a bit too much of a froth about it.
    I'm fully behind the fact that there are absurdities; that is very clear to almost everyone. But at the same time, we are still in a crisis, and a few temporary privations aren't the end of the world.

    The kettle one is a great example. Some time ago I was left alone for a week without a kettle. The other half, for reasons that still elude me today, took our only kettle with on a business trip to Scotland. For a week, I had to use a pan to boil water. It wasn't ideal but it wasn't the end of the world. We often hear talk about how some people lack the Blitz spirit, or that some people are too soft and wouldn't have been able to survive when things were really tough. Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?

    None of this is to say I even agree with what the Welsh government is doing. I'm only talking about the force of the reaction which, well, seems to be a blend of genuine and inflated outrage.

    I'm posting this in the knowledge that I'll be accused of being an apologist to fascism or something, so before you fly off the handle (replacement handles should be available on Amazon.co.uk for under £20), just take the time to check you are disagreeing with something I have actually said.

    The issue is not whether you can do without it. The issue is whether what the Welsh government is doing is legal under the regulations it has brought in. And as far as I can see it isn’t.

    That is AN issue. Certainly an important one, which I will leave more able people than me to decide.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    It sounds to me as if Drakeford's policy is worth a try. It's essentially the circuit breaker advocated by SAGE a month ago, so it's not just whimsical. I agree that it seems absurd that supermarkets can't sell their full range of goods. But that aside, this is a serious attempt to restrict virus spread.

    Those who are opposed to it should say what they would do instead. The virus looks fairly uncontrollable to me, and in England Tiers 3 and 2 will, I suspect, take a long time to have an impact.

    If the Welsh policy does work, and if the time is used to strengthen test/trace/isolate, as Drakeford has suggested, then England will probably follow. If it doesn't work, at least nobody can say they didn't try. You never know, Drakeford may still be the saviour of some sort of Christmas. Unlikely, I know - but possible.

    If the incubation period is 14 days, then we KNOW at outset that a 2 week lockdown does not work. Jason Leitch has already said this concerning Scotland. It has to be a good deal longer than 2 weeks to work. We already know how quickly (or rather slowly) the COVID infection rate drops by 50 per cent. There have been innumerable lockdowns already.

    (I think Drakeford's lockdown won't be as effective as previous ones, because the compliance will be less good.)

    We also know what policies work (see South Korea or China). They have been explained on this site innumerable times.

    If Drakeford wanted to carry out a useful & bold experiment, radically different from England, he could. But, that would require real bravery.
    Why does that follow? If you are just trying to buy a brief respite, why does it matter if the respite does not overlap with the period of time which buys the respite?
  • Roy_G_Biv said:

    I've been really trying to get on board with the indignation being levelled at the Welsh government, but I can't help feeling like people are working themselves up into a bit too much of a froth about it.
    I'm fully behind the fact that there are absurdities; that is very clear to almost everyone. But at the same time, we are still in a crisis, and a few temporary privations aren't the end of the world.

    The kettle one is a great example. Some time ago I was left alone for a week without a kettle. The other half, for reasons that still elude me today, took our only kettle with on a business trip to Scotland. For a week, I had to use a pan to boil water. It wasn't ideal but it wasn't the end of the world. We often hear talk about how some people lack the Blitz spirit, or that some people are too soft and wouldn't have been able to survive when things were really tough. Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?

    None of this is to say I even agree with what the Welsh government is doing. I'm only talking about the force of the reaction which, well, seems to be a blend of genuine and inflated outrage.

    I'm posting this in the knowledge that I'll be accused of being an apologist to fascism or something, so before you fly off the handle (replacement handles should be available on Amazon.co.uk for under £20), just take the time to check you are disagreeing with something I have actually said.

    Given the apparent ineffectiveness so far of the approach in England, I do agree with what the Welsh Government is doing. I suspect that much of the criticism on here is driven by people who don't like Drakeford and are therefore jumping at the chance to avoid seeing the wood for the trees by citing spurious examples of minor inconvenience from shopping restrictions.

    What Drakeford has done is to curtail shopping as an indoor leisure activity for 17 days as part of an intense lockdown of short duration. For an effective circuit breaker, I don't see how you can do anything else but minimise interactions in major stores. For non-exempt goods, the vast majority of affected potential purchases will be discretionary ones, and people will have to either put those off for a couple of weeks or order for delivery with a wait of a couple of days. Other than for something really essential, most people will wait and independent retailers will still have a chance to compete with the big chains for that custom in due course. So it protects small retailers market share as much as you can in the circumstances of a circuit breaker.

    The restrictions in England will in my view last many more months without being effective and that duration makes them unbelieveably costly even though they may still destroy some businesses for good. There isn't an end date for those restrictions or even know criteria for ending them. England is in limbo until the new year, and the scale of the restrictions is slowly extending across the country. There are reports today that the Government are working up a Tier 4 as they suspect that even Tier 3 will prove ineffective.

    We should all be thankful that Wales is at least trying out a contrasting strategy, piloting a much more intensive alternative which if it works will apply restrictions for a far shorter period. If it works, it will get the virus down to low levels, sufficient give otherwise overwhelmed systems a chance to contain it in Wales, so long as it doesn't spread back in from England. If the Welsh approach fails, then in a few weeks we'll know that there's not going to be much point of trying to apply it the remaining 95% of the UK population either, and only then will Drakeford deserve criticism especially if he persists with that approach regardless.
    You should live here and listen to the anger

    English police stopping cars in England and reporting them to Wales police is going down like a lead balloon

    And as for Facebook and social media the photographs of the insides of Supermarkets is causing uproar, very uncomplimentary jokes about Drakeford, and of course the supermarket customers are witnessing the stupidity of it for themselves
    I am glad that some are complaining about it, because it sounds like Drakeford's measures might just stand a chance of scaling back shopping interactions in major retail stores to a significant extent.

    I suggest you wait for a few weeks and then pass judgement.
    No - they just hand it to Amazon
    Big G. I exclusively used internet shopping for non essentials during Lockdown 1, not least because of the queues to get into supermarkets. I would have arranged an internet grocery shop too if there were any slots available.

    If one is desperate enough to queue for forty five minutes to get into a supermarket, I suspect one would be desperate enough to browse the tat.

    I used whatever grocery retailer that had the shortest queue, I did not hang around to look for Chinese kettles and Bangladeshi jeans.
    I have been to Asda in Llandudno often and never experienced any form of queue

    Furthermore, it is well organised and everyone wears masks

    And if check outs are busy I use self check outs
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129

    . I agree that it seems absurd that supermarkets can't sell their full range of goods. But that aside

    That's the bit people are specifically criticising though (as opposed to the general criticisms some will have on a circuit breaker), so I don't see how it it set aside.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    The two simultaneous thoughts.

    1) Trump is wildly popular with massive rallies showing his massive popularity

    2) Trump supporters do not want to say they support Trump.

    People that go to the rallies are his biggest fans, by definition. Why are they going to be shy?
    Quite.

    Trump rallies don't prove his massive popularity.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    Can we exile Chris Robshaw and the rest of these morons to Wales?

    https://twitter.com/EdwardB24376757/status/1319909115997622276

    Andy Powell can pick them up on the M4 Severn Crossing in his golf cart.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    I've been really trying to get on board with the indignation being levelled at the Welsh government, but I can't help feeling like people are working themselves up into a bit too much of a froth about it.
    I'm fully behind the fact that there are absurdities; that is very clear to almost everyone. But at the same time, we are still in a crisis, and a few temporary privations aren't the end of the world.

    The kettle one is a great example. Some time ago I was left alone for a week without a kettle. The other half, for reasons that still elude me today, took our only kettle with on a business trip to Scotland. For a week, I had to use a pan to boil water. It wasn't ideal but it wasn't the end of the world. We often hear talk about how some people lack the Blitz spirit, or that some people are too soft and wouldn't have been able to survive when things were really tough. Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?

    None of this is to say I even agree with what the Welsh government is doing. I'm only talking about the force of the reaction which, well, seems to be a blend of genuine and inflated outrage.

    I'm posting this in the knowledge that I'll be accused of being an apologist to fascism or something, so before you fly off the handle (replacement handles should be available on Amazon.co.uk for under £20), just take the time to check you are disagreeing with something I have actually said.

    The issue is not whether you can do without it. The issue is whether what the Welsh government is doing is legal under the regulations it has brought in. And as far as I can see it isn’t.

    That is AN issue. Certainly an important one, which I will leave more able people than me to decide.
    Would have been nice of politicians had considered that before putting the policy into place. The law and the application thereof is of interest to more people than those interested in the minutiae of lockdown policy in wales, and if it was specifically addressed all the attention would be on the policy with fewer distracted complaints.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    I've been really trying to get on board with the indignation being levelled at the Welsh government, but I can't help feeling like people are working themselves up into a bit too much of a froth about it.
    I'm fully behind the fact that there are absurdities; that is very clear to almost everyone. But at the same time, we are still in a crisis, and a few temporary privations aren't the end of the world.

    The kettle one is a great example. Some time ago I was left alone for a week without a kettle. The other half, for reasons that still elude me today, took our only kettle with on a business trip to Scotland. For a week, I had to use a pan to boil water. It wasn't ideal but it wasn't the end of the world. We often hear talk about how some people lack the Blitz spirit, or that some people are too soft and wouldn't have been able to survive when things were really tough. Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?

    None of this is to say I even agree with what the Welsh government is doing. I'm only talking about the force of the reaction which, well, seems to be a blend of genuine and inflated outrage.

    I'm posting this in the knowledge that I'll be accused of being an apologist to fascism or something, so before you fly off the handle (replacement handles should be available on Amazon.co.uk for under £20), just take the time to check you are disagreeing with something I have actually said.

    Given the apparent ineffectiveness so far of the approach in England, I do agree with what the Welsh Government is doing. I suspect that much of the criticism on here is driven by people who don't like Drakeford and are therefore jumping at the chance to avoid seeing the wood for the trees by citing spurious examples of minor inconvenience from shopping restrictions.

    What Drakeford has done is to curtail shopping as an indoor leisure activity for 17 days as part of an intense lockdown of short duration. For an effective circuit breaker, I don't see how you can do anything else but minimise interactions in major stores. For non-exempt goods, the vast majority of affected potential purchases will be discretionary ones, and people will have to either put those off for a couple of weeks or order for delivery with a wait of a couple of days. Other than for something really essential, most people will wait and independent retailers will still have a chance to compete with the big chains for that custom in due course. So it protects small retailers market share as much as you can in the circumstances of a circuit breaker.

    The restrictions in England will in my view last many more months without being effective and that duration makes them unbelieveably costly even though they may still destroy some businesses for good. There isn't an end date for those restrictions or even know criteria for ending them. England is in limbo until the new year, and the scale of the restrictions is slowly extending across the country. There are reports today that the Government are working up a Tier 4 as they suspect that even Tier 3 will prove ineffective.

    We should all be thankful that Wales is at least trying out a contrasting strategy, piloting a much more intensive alternative which if it works will apply restrictions for a far shorter period. If it works, it will get the virus down to low levels, sufficient give otherwise overwhelmed systems a chance to contain it in Wales, so long as it doesn't spread back in from England. If the Welsh approach fails, then in a few weeks we'll know that there's not going to be much point of trying to apply it the remaining 95% of the UK population either, and only then will Drakeford deserve criticism especially if he persists with that approach regardless.
    You should live here and listen to the anger

    English police stopping cars in England and reporting them to Wales police is going down like a lead balloon

    And as for Facebook and social media the photographs of the insides of Supermarkets is causing uproar, very uncomplimentary jokes about Drakeford, and of course the supermarket customers are witnessing the stupidity of it for themselves
    I am glad that some are complaining about it, because it sounds like Drakeford's measures might just stand a chance of scaling back shopping interactions in major retail stores to a significant extent.

    I suggest you wait for a few weeks and then pass judgement.
    No - they just hand it to Amazon
    Big G. I exclusively used internet shopping for non essentials during Lockdown 1, not least because of the queues to get into supermarkets. I would have arranged an internet grocery shop too if there were any slots available.

    If one is desperate enough to queue for forty five minutes to get into a supermarket, I suspect one would be desperate enough to browse the tat.

    I used whatever grocery retailer that had the shortest queue, I did not hang around to look for Chinese kettles and Bangladeshi jeans.
    I have been to Asda in Llandudno often and never experienced any form of queue

    Furthermore, it is well organised and everyone wears masks

    And if check outs are busy I use self check outs
    I’ve only had to queue once at Morrison’s, and then only for ten minutes.

    Admittedly I always shop at 8am on Saturday mornings.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited October 2020



    They will if they works. Or are you so confident in Johnson's measures that you don't think it's even worth trying something different for a few weeks?

    Re your example. I suggest that, if it is really as time critical as you suggest, your allotment holder would:
    1. Have seen this coming and visited their local garden centre well before it closed yesterday.
    2. Get on the phone or internet today to order plug plants in by mail order, no doubt from the same wholesalers that supply the garden centre.
    That said, the allotment holders I know avoid expensive garden centres like the plague and grow their crops from seed, often from seed taken from the previous year's crops.

    By the way, you didn't seem so exercised when the Welsh were stopping cars driven by the English.

    I believe we are not allowed to go to the allotment. Going to an allotment is a non-essential journey. It is classed as a leisure activity.

    We are not allowed to do anything non-essential.
  • HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Has HYUFD given his reasoning for WHY Trafalgar did so badly in 2018 Mid-terms? I mean, after all, if their method is so superior then they must have some very good base data from which they can then import their "shy Trump" adjustment.

    Is he suggesting that for some reason they were under the impression that Trump was on the ballot in 2018 and made the mistake of including the "adjustment" to their sound base data?

    Or is it in reality that their base date, if it exists at all, is just a crock of sh*t? Or that the base data is just what other pollsters do with 6pts added to Trump? In which case he should perhaps answer the question i have repeatedly asked him about what he thinks the impact is of the changes in methodology that most pollsters have made since 2016... Which might rather undermine the Trafalgar "model"...

    They weren't that bad even in 2018, they correctly had DeSantis winning Florida unlike other pollsters they only got Georgia really badly wrong and in the article I linked to he admits that but overall they still were far better at identifying the shy Trump vote in 2016 than other pollsters were, especially in the rustbelt

    As I outlined previously, IMHO the Trafalgar groups is NOT doing polling, at least as the word is commonly understood.

    Instead it appears that they take keypad responses to text & robocall push-poll messages ("Would your neighbors be more or less likely to vote for Joe Biden if they knew he eats babies for breakfast?" then they massage the responses into cookie-cutter demographics (which is why same breakdowns get repeated from one survey to another.

    In other words, recycling direct voter propaganda then recycling it as "polling".

    The Ghost of Lee Atwater MUST be pleased as he warms himself by the eternal fires of Hell . . .
    Do you have any actual evidence of these practices? Or are they just made up because the polls don;t give the result you want?
    My take on Trafalgar Group is speculation. BUT hardly "made up" as it accords with what TG says is it's 'methodology".

    Ever hear of the Literary Digest?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    I've been really trying to get on board with the indignation being levelled at the Welsh government, but I can't help feeling like people are working themselves up into a bit too much of a froth about it.
    I'm fully behind the fact that there are absurdities; that is very clear to almost everyone. But at the same time, we are still in a crisis, and a few temporary privations aren't the end of the world.

    The kettle one is a great example. Some time ago I was left alone for a week without a kettle. The other half, for reasons that still elude me today, took our only kettle with on a business trip to Scotland. For a week, I had to use a pan to boil water. It wasn't ideal but it wasn't the end of the world. We often hear talk about how some people lack the Blitz spirit, or that some people are too soft and wouldn't have been able to survive when things were really tough. Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?

    None of this is to say I even agree with what the Welsh government is doing. I'm only talking about the force of the reaction which, well, seems to be a blend of genuine and inflated outrage.

    I'm posting this in the knowledge that I'll be accused of being an apologist to fascism or something, so before you fly off the handle (replacement handles should be available on Amazon.co.uk for under £20), just take the time to check you are disagreeing with something I have actually said.

    Given the apparent ineffectiveness so far of the approach in England, I do agree with what the Welsh Government is doing. I suspect that much of the criticism on here is driven by people who don't like Drakeford and are therefore jumping at the chance to avoid seeing the wood for the trees by citing spurious examples of minor inconvenience from shopping restrictions.

    What Drakeford has done is to curtail shopping as an indoor leisure activity for 17 days as part of an intense lockdown of short duration. For an effective circuit breaker, I don't see how you can do anything else but minimise interactions in major stores. For non-exempt goods, the vast majority of affected potential purchases will be discretionary ones, and people will have to either put those off for a couple of weeks or order for delivery with a wait of a couple of days. Other than for something really essential, most people will wait and independent retailers will still have a chance to compete with the big chains for that custom in due course. So it protects small retailers market share as much as you can in the circumstances of a circuit breaker.

    The restrictions in England will in my view last many more months without being effective and that duration makes them unbelieveably costly even though they may still destroy some businesses for good. There isn't an end date for those restrictions or even know criteria for ending them. England is in limbo until the new year, and the scale of the restrictions is slowly extending across the country. There are reports today that the Government are working up a Tier 4 as they suspect that even Tier 3 will prove ineffective.

    We should all be thankful that Wales is at least trying out a contrasting strategy, piloting a much more intensive alternative which if it works will apply restrictions for a far shorter period. If it works, it will get the virus down to low levels, sufficient give otherwise overwhelmed systems a chance to contain it in Wales, so long as it doesn't spread back in from England. If the Welsh approach fails, then in a few weeks we'll know that there's not going to be much point of trying to apply it the remaining 95% of the UK population either, and only then will Drakeford deserve criticism especially if he persists with that approach regardless.
    You should live here and listen to the anger

    English police stopping cars in England and reporting them to Wales police is going down like a lead balloon

    And as for Facebook and social media the photographs of the insides of Supermarkets is causing uproar, very uncomplimentary jokes about Drakeford, and of course the supermarket customers are witnessing the stupidity of it for themselves
    I am glad that some are complaining about it, because it sounds like Drakeford's measures might just stand a chance of scaling back shopping interactions in major retail stores to a significant extent.

    I suggest you wait for a few weeks and then pass judgement.
    No - they just hand it to Amazon
    Big G. I exclusively used internet shopping for non essentials during Lockdown 1, not least because of the queues to get into supermarkets. I would have arranged an internet grocery shop too if there were any slots available.

    If one is desperate enough to queue for forty five minutes to get into a supermarket, I suspect one would be desperate enough to browse the tat.

    I used whatever grocery retailer that had the shortest queue, I did not hang around to look for Chinese kettles and Bangladeshi jeans.
    I have been to Asda in Llandudno often and never experienced any form of queue

    Furthermore, it is well organised and everyone wears masks

    And if check outs are busy I use self check outs
    During the lockdown, one man and a dog were only allowed in Cowbridge Waitrose at a time, half an hour queue every day, all day. Since lockdown ended, no queues but it is like a fairground dodgem ride in there. I leave it until late evening (just before closing) when the enthusiastic browsers have gone home.
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998
    kle4 said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    I've been really trying to get on board with the indignation being levelled at the Welsh government, but I can't help feeling like people are working themselves up into a bit too much of a froth about it.
    I'm fully behind the fact that there are absurdities; that is very clear to almost everyone. But at the same time, we are still in a crisis, and a few temporary privations aren't the end of the world.

    The kettle one is a great example. Some time ago I was left alone for a week without a kettle. The other half, for reasons that still elude me today, took our only kettle with on a business trip to Scotland. For a week, I had to use a pan to boil water. It wasn't ideal but it wasn't the end of the world. We often hear talk about how some people lack the Blitz spirit, or that some people are too soft and wouldn't have been able to survive when things were really tough. Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?

    None of this is to say I even agree with what the Welsh government is doing. I'm only talking about the force of the reaction which, well, seems to be a blend of genuine and inflated outrage.

    I'm posting this in the knowledge that I'll be accused of being an apologist to fascism or something, so before you fly off the handle (replacement handles should be available on Amazon.co.uk for under £20), just take the time to check you are disagreeing with something I have actually said.

    The issue is not whether you can do without it. The issue is whether what the Welsh government is doing is legal under the regulations it has brought in. And as far as I can see it isn’t.

    That is AN issue. Certainly an important one, which I will leave more able people than me to decide.
    Would have been nice of politicians had considered that before putting the policy into place. The law and the application thereof is of interest to more people than those interested in the minutiae of lockdown policy in wales, and if it was specifically addressed all the attention would be on the policy with fewer distracted complaints.
    Sure, but it's still whataboutery, since I wasn't saying anything about the legality nor about those who were commenting on the legality. If someone wants to tell me it's the MOST important aspect of this situation then I'll go along with that. It's just... I have nothing to say about it.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    Due to me bolloxing up yesterday's Abel & Cole order we are doing a 'click & collect' Waitrose shop tomorrow. My first visit to a supermarket since early March. I'm not sure whether we'll actually have to enter the store. Hopefully not.
  • Alistair said:

    The two simultaneous thoughts.

    1) Trump is wildly popular with massive rallies showing his massive popularity

    2) Trump supporters do not want to say they support Trump.

    I think those two things can easily be simultaneously true. There is a difference between Trump supporters and those that will vote Trump.

    We saw it here in 2017. There were Coryn supporters and there were Corbyn voters.

    Corbyn held big rallies in 2019 and his supporters were similarly optimistic because the polls had been (massively) wrong in 2017. I think the valid parallel here is the assumption of Trump/Corbyn supporters that the next election's polling error will be in the same direction as in the last one.

    Michael Foot knew he was going to confound the polls in 1983 because of the evidence he saw before his eyes at his rallies of the faithful.
    Actually the parallal is similar that 2017, Corbyn rocked up all over the country and got really good turnout and people very excited to see him...2019, yes the faithful were excited, but reaction from the general public it was never quite like that.

    Trump is similar...the rallies still happen, but the scale and excitement isn't the same.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,671
    edited October 2020

    Due to me bolloxing up yesterday's Abel & Cole order we are doing a 'click & collect' Waitrose shop tomorrow. My first visit to a supermarket since early March. I'm not sure whether we'll actually have to enter the store. Hopefully not.

    If it's a big click and collect order then it is done in the car park.

    There's a special section in the car park for click and collect orders, you drive up, tell them your name and order number, and they'll bring stuff out of a fan in crates, and then you load it up in your car.
This discussion has been closed.