I've been really trying to get on board with the indignation being levelled at the Welsh government, but I can't help feeling like people are working themselves up into a bit too much of a froth about it. I'm fully behind the fact that there are absurdities; that is very clear to almost everyone. But at the same time, we are still in a crisis, and a few temporary privations aren't the end of the world.
The kettle one is a great example. Some time ago I was left alone for a week without a kettle. The other half, for reasons that still elude me today, took our only kettle with on a business trip to Scotland. For a week, I had to use a pan to boil water. It wasn't ideal but it wasn't the end of the world. We often hear talk about how some people lack the Blitz spirit, or that some people are too soft and wouldn't have been able to survive when things were really tough. Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?
None of this is to say I even agree with what the Welsh government is doing. I'm only talking about the force of the reaction which, well, seems to be a blend of genuine and inflated outrage.
I'm posting this in the knowledge that I'll be accused of being an apologist to fascism or something, so before you fly off the handle (replacement handles should be available on Amazon.co.uk for under £20), just take the time to check you are disagreeing with something I have actually said.
My example is a corkscrew. I went to Ireland this summer knowing that I'd be locked down for two weeks. I had 36 bottles in the car but when I arrived I found I had no corkscrew. Disaster.
Luckily two of the bottles were champagne which kept me going for a couple of days while I pondered. None of the others were screw tops. On YouTube I saw a video of putting a bottle in the heel of your shoe and vigourously banging the wall with it.
Another video showed the same trick except the bottle broke cutting the person's arm so I abandoned that idea.
I tried putting a screw in the cork and then trapping the screw in the hinge jamb of a door. Opened the bottle but wrecked the hinge.
I then used a claw hammer to lever the screw and cork out. Success. Hard work but worth it.
At the end of the holiday I found the corkscrew out of sight on the top shelf of the liquor cupboard where I had put it out of reach of the grandkids on the previous holiday.
I wonder if, as his final act as a Plaid Cymru double agent, Drakeford could take down Welsh Labour.
Serious politicians have been trying that for over a hundred years and failing more imposingly than a Cummings education policy.
If he succeeds in that, he will rank ahead of David Lloyd George as the most formidable Welsh politician of all time.
The woman Welsh Minister on Any Questions wasn’t any better. After a long waffly answer justifying why Welsh people couldn’t replace their broken kettle at the local supermarket because it would drive business away from local shops, when asked by Mason what people should do, then, she said buy a new kettle online.
Was this Carolyn Harris MP? Possibly the thickest Welsh MP (against very stiff competition).
The Carolyn Harris whose evidence in the malevolent prosecution of her aide was disbelieved by the jury, leading to the acquittal of her aide (Jenny Clarke). The Carolyn Harris who was accused of homophobic bullying. That Carolyn Harris.
She actually said, on prime time radio, that the policy was to shut the big shops so that it would helps save the little shops, but people could go online.
I think it is good for English Labour supporters to actually see the fucking abysmal standard of Labour MPs we have to put up with in Wales. And they're better than the Labour AMs, who make up the Welsh Government.
Biden's oil "gaffe" should get ensure enough Texans hold their noses and get Trump over the line.
Not a bad as Trump's gaffe on the 545 migrant children being held in cages because they can't find their parents.
Awful though that story is, we already knew about it and Trump managed the muddy the water by claiming Biden built them.
Also, many people at the end of the day vote selfishly for their own interests. Hearing that the potential president in a single simple soundbitable clip say oil is going* will have far more effect on wavering voters in Texas.
* You won't get the full context or his claim to more than replace all the jobs with renewables.
Except that context is pretty clear from simple observation. It’s not as though the massive growth in renewables is some distant chimera in Texas; it’s been happening for a while.
And where is Tesla building its newest factory ?
In Texas the wind industry is booming. And despite the snarky comments about retraining - a lot of the jobs are closely related to the oil industry - trucking, welding, moving heavy steel assemblies, crane work, electrical*, trench cutting....
*A surprising amount of oil work involves electrical work.
Texas has more installed wind generation capacity than the UK. They aren't dopes, oil may be big in Texas, but they are also investing in renewables to an extent that would likely surprise most Americans.
I've been really trying to get on board with the indignation being levelled at the Welsh government, but I can't help feeling like people are working themselves up into a bit too much of a froth about it. I'm fully behind the fact that there are absurdities; that is very clear to almost everyone. But at the same time, we are still in a crisis, and a few temporary privations aren't the end of the world.
The kettle one is a great example. Some time ago I was left alone for a week without a kettle. The other half, for reasons that still elude me today, took our only kettle with on a business trip to Scotland. For a week, I had to use a pan to boil water. It wasn't ideal but it wasn't the end of the world. We often hear talk about how some people lack the Blitz spirit, or that some people are too soft and wouldn't have been able to survive when things were really tough. Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?
None of this is to say I even agree with what the Welsh government is doing. I'm only talking about the force of the reaction which, well, seems to be a blend of genuine and inflated outrage.
I'm posting this in the knowledge that I'll be accused of being an apologist to fascism or something, so before you fly off the handle (replacement handles should be available on Amazon.co.uk for under £20), just take the time to check you are disagreeing with something I have actually said.
The interesting thing will be if they DON'T lift the restrictions on Nov 3rd.
But frankly there are all sorts of things that have been deemed "non-essential" that actually people do on occasion need quite urgently. Often due to bad planning. Waiting 2-3 days for it to come through on line isn't even a solution to this. Obviously often they don't REALLY need it. But bear in mind that the official line from the Welsh Govt appears to be that these particular restrictions (supermarkets and non-essential supplies) are not being primarily done for public health purposes. If they are not there for public health purposes then the arguments for them become easily challengeable. Without people worrying about being shouted down by the "BUT IT WILL SAVE LIVES" brigade.
As I said this morning, if you’re going to have a tight lockdown, then apparently non-essential things such as DIY materials and tools, Craft stuff, gardening, books, board games - all suddenly become essential to help people survive through without compromising their mental health.
It is almost as if the only way through the lockdown for the Welsh is buying and consuming alcohol, which remains allowable since it’s essential.
Sky confirm the English police will stop Welsh cars and if they do not have grounds to have crossed the border they will be reported to the Welsh police for prosecution
This is massive overreaction along with restricting supermarket non essential food sales driving business to Amazon. I can buy most things on Amazon on Prime and they are here the next day
Why the actual fuck are English police following the orders of Mark Drakeford?
And moreover, why are they following such bloody stupid orders?
So are they actually using ANPR (number plate recognition) or are they just seeing if your numbers plate starts with a C (I happen to have an English number plate) Either way this is complete dictatorial madness.
It is possible that Drakeford is a Plaid Cymru double agent.
First, the intervention of the English police (WTF) arresting Welsh people in Gloucestershire or the Forest of Dean is predictably generating huge anger in Wales.
And second, the more punitive and costly are Drakeford's lockdowns, the more English taxpayers will baulk at picking up the bills. The comments from some English journalists on the Welsh Government are beginning to resemble the vituperation normally reserved for the Scottish Government.
Devolution never killed anything stone-dead, it was always going to tear us apart.
But Drakeford ... WTF .... banning the sale of books .... books of all things (as posted here yesterday by williamglenn).
I have never heard of anything so stupid. Books are a great way to pass the time in lockdown, but we can only get them from dependable Jeff Bezos.
I wonder if, as his final act as a Plaid Cymru double agent, Drakeford could take down Welsh Labour.
Books - look at other online sellers. There are tons of ways to avoid Mr Bezos - and get better prices.
Yes but the local bookshop ten minutes from me is shut by edict the Govt. I wouldn’t have to go online in the first place without Drakeford’s idiocy.
Yes on the whole bookshop shutting thing. I was talking about living with this stuff.
Hopefully your local bookshop is already online on various platforms. Many small independent book shops are...
Ah I see. Well yes of course there are, but where I’m coming from is, we try to spend as locally as possible without the tail wagging the dog. Local market, shops etc sort of use it or lose it I guess. Beyond that being a normal 21st C person in this country I totter off to the local supermarkets once a week or so and of course you end up buying food and all the other add ons of life as needed cleaning stuff, light bulbs, tin openers (in that case not often, true)
Now I simply fail to see how it makes any meaningful difference to R if I buy a tin opener two aisles down from peas if I’m in the shop anyway buying peas. However, Drakeford apparently deems that the local bookshop or hardware store or whatever is a risk to R, and that to “not disadvantage” them the supermarket can’t sell “non essential” stuff either.
So if I want a book or a tin opener, despite my desire, usual practice, and ability to buy and a willingness for people to supply me in a brief socially distanced transaction that has sod all effect on R, the Govt here has forced me to send the money, and profits of the transaction out of the local area and indeed out of Wales.
I’m ok, Jeff Bezos and other distant folk online are ok, my local community is poorer both literally and figuratively.
Thanks Welsh Govt.
Well yes, exactly. The "unfair on local shops" line is nonsensical. What's unfair to local shops is that they are forced to shut. But once that decision has been taken, they aren't losing any additional business by banning the supermarkets from selling the stuff as well. So it's nothing to do with fairness, and nothing really to do with public health (if it was then they would be using that argument exclusively).
If you were worried about the damage that supermarkets do to local shops, then the politicians would have done better to put greater restrictions on them in normal times. Not when they are the only place that people can get stuff that they need NOW.
It has everything to do with a certain kind of fairness. The small shops are shut and the supermarkets won't get the business. Someone, far away and not especially visible, will.
I'm fully behind the fact that there are absurdities; that is very clear to almost everyone. But at the same time, we are still in a crisis, and a few temporary privations aren't the end of the world.
Where do you live? Where is the nearest COVID death to you?
There is no crisis where I live. I live in a remote town where there is no COVID, and the nearest death is about 30 miles away.
I am locked down and not allowed to travel more than a few miles from my house. (I was due to travel to England for work on Nov 1st. I won't be able to do that now).
I thought travel for work was an allowed exception?
I am not actually sure whether it is any work or "essential work".
But nonetheless, I will (it seems) run the risk of being stopped by the English police after the border and have to explain and justify my journey and presumably produce evidence that it is "essential".
All work trips are essential unless they cannot be done from home.
Texas is not that keen on Trump eg Trump won it in 2012 by less than Romney did in 2012 or McCain in did in 2008 and by far less than George W Bush did in 2000 and 2004 but it is still a pretty solid red state and he will still win it again even if he loses the election
You may be right that Texas was less "keen" on Trump than previous GOP presidential candidates.
However, think the X-factor here is NOT keen-ness per se, but rather demographic creep, as Texas voting population becomes more diverse AND more urban/surburban. AND as the 'burbs have moved from being Republican heartlands to the Lone Star equivalent of the Red Wall in England.
These trends, along with anti-Trumpsky sentiment, are what may see Democrats make major gains in the Texas congressional delegation AND the state legislature, where they may well win control of the State House of Reps for the first time in a generation.
There is some truth in that but then Trump did relatively worse in the suburbs than the Bushes and Romney did too and also did much worse with Hispanics than Bush did in 2004 for example and Texas has an above average Latino population while he did best with white working class voters who are more concentrated in the rustbelt with fewer percentage wise in the Lone Star State
I've been really trying to get on board with the indignation being levelled at the Welsh government, but I can't help feeling like people are working themselves up into a bit too much of a froth about it. I'm fully behind the fact that there are absurdities; that is very clear to almost everyone. But at the same time, we are still in a crisis, and a few temporary privations aren't the end of the world.
The kettle one is a great example. Some time ago I was left alone for a week without a kettle. The other half, for reasons that still elude me today, took our only kettle with on a business trip to Scotland. For a week, I had to use a pan to boil water. It wasn't ideal but it wasn't the end of the world. We often hear talk about how some people lack the Blitz spirit, or that some people are too soft and wouldn't have been able to survive when things were really tough. Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?
None of this is to say I even agree with what the Welsh government is doing. I'm only talking about the force of the reaction which, well, seems to be a blend of genuine and inflated outrage.
I'm posting this in the knowledge that I'll be accused of being an apologist to fascism or something, so before you fly off the handle (replacement handles should be available on Amazon.co.uk for under £20), just take the time to check you are disagreeing with something I have actually said.
My example is a corkscrew. I went to Ireland this summer knowing that I'd be locked down for two weeks. I had 36 bottles in the car but when I arrived I found I had no corkscrew. Disaster.
Luckily two of the bottles were champagne which kept me going for a couple of days while I pondered. None of the others were screw tops. On YouTube I saw a video of putting a bottle in the heel of your shoe and vigourously banging the wall with it.
Another video showed the same trick except the bottle broke cutting the person's arm so I abandoned that idea.
I tried putting a screw in the cork and then trapping the screw in the hinge jamb of a door. Opened the bottle but wrecked the hinge.
I then used a claw hammer to lever the screw and cork out. Success. Hard work but worth it.
At the end of the holiday I found the corkscrew out of sight on the top shelf of the liquor cupboard where I had put it out of reach of the grandkids on the previous holiday.
I admire your tenacity. I'd have hammered the corks into the bottles and decanted the wine. It's burning your bridge, because then the wine really needs drunk, but that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make.
I've been really trying to get on board with the indignation being levelled at the Welsh government, but I can't help feeling like people are working themselves up into a bit too much of a froth about it. I'm fully behind the fact that there are absurdities; that is very clear to almost everyone. But at the same time, we are still in a crisis, and a few temporary privations aren't the end of the world.
The kettle one is a great example. Some time ago I was left alone for a week without a kettle. The other half, for reasons that still elude me today, took our only kettle with on a business trip to Scotland. For a week, I had to use a pan to boil water. It wasn't ideal but it wasn't the end of the world. We often hear talk about how some people lack the Blitz spirit, or that some people are too soft and wouldn't have been able to survive when things were really tough. Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?
None of this is to say I even agree with what the Welsh government is doing. I'm only talking about the force of the reaction which, well, seems to be a blend of genuine and inflated outrage.
I'm posting this in the knowledge that I'll be accused of being an apologist to fascism or something, so before you fly off the handle (replacement handles should be available on Amazon.co.uk for under £20), just take the time to check you are disagreeing with something I have actually said.
My example is a corkscrew. I went to Ireland this summer knowing that I'd be locked down for two weeks. I had 36 bottles in the car but when I arrived I found I had no corkscrew. Disaster.
Luckily two of the bottles were champagne which kept me going for a couple of days while I pondered. None of the others were screw tops. On YouTube I saw a video of putting a bottle in the heel of your shoe and vigourously banging the wall with it.
Another video showed the same trick except the bottle broke cutting the person's arm so I abandoned that idea.
I tried putting a screw in the cork and then trapping the screw in the hinge jamb of a door. Opened the bottle but wrecked the hinge.
I then used a claw hammer to lever the screw and cork out. Success. Hard work but worth it.
At the end of the holiday I found the corkscrew out of sight on the top shelf of the liquor cupboard where I had put it out of reach of the grandkids on the previous holiday.
You’ve not lived until you’ve had to push the cork into the bottle, seen it annoyingly disintegrate and then had to filter the wine through your good lady’s tights over the sink in a hotel in Bideford.
Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?
I'm prepared for such emergencies, and have a spare emergency kettle.
I've been really trying to get on board with the indignation being levelled at the Welsh government, but I can't help feeling like people are working themselves up into a bit too much of a froth about it. I'm fully behind the fact that there are absurdities; that is very clear to almost everyone. But at the same time, we are still in a crisis, and a few temporary privations aren't the end of the world.
The kettle one is a great example. Some time ago I was left alone for a week without a kettle. The other half, for reasons that still elude me today, took our only kettle with on a business trip to Scotland. For a week, I had to use a pan to boil water. It wasn't ideal but it wasn't the end of the world. We often hear talk about how some people lack the Blitz spirit, or that some people are too soft and wouldn't have been able to survive when things were really tough. Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?
None of this is to say I even agree with what the Welsh government is doing. I'm only talking about the force of the reaction which, well, seems to be a blend of genuine and inflated outrage.
I'm posting this in the knowledge that I'll be accused of being an apologist to fascism or something, so before you fly off the handle (replacement handles should be available on Amazon.co.uk for under £20), just take the time to check you are disagreeing with something I have actually said.
I don't think it is necessary to get outraged by the policy, and therefore not necessary to get outraged by defences of that policy, so I take the point that the restriction of purchase of non-essential goods, however nebulously defined, is in most cases really not going to be essential, even if it is a hardship, even a needless hardship. It is always the case that any major policy will have some amount of negative unforeseen consequences, and the existence of those consequences - even if minor or unrepresentative - is used to suggest the policy as a whole is a bad one, which is not always fair.
However, whilst I do accept we are in a crisis and accept that some temporary privations are not the end of the world - we have, as a nation, already accepted quite a few more in that respect that I would have thought would be accepted, at least so quiescently - I don't think that has a major bearing on reducing criticism of the welsh policy as currently constituted, as the acceptance of privations is usually set against the purported benefits, in essence what are people being asked to suffer - in however big or small a way - for?
And if the reason for that privation seems to be unjustified, ineffective, or outright beyond the scope of the written law, then the principle of the policy will attract a lot more derision that what be even harsher policies which have clearer benefits. That the policy will have severe economic effects seems a given, but how it actually achieves additional health benefits than strong guidance not to make unnecessary trips, but if you are there you can buy what is on the shelves, is unclear.
Off Topic
I think, as the Sleeping Bard said yesterday the Welsh Conservatives accidentally set an elephant trap that Drakeford fell into. It has certainly given PB Tories something to celebrate.
I can understand why it was done, the idea being to stop millions of shoppers browsing the first floor of Asda Bridgend, and thereby not disadvantaging Arthur John's hardware store in Cowbridge which is closed under the restrictions.
It was probably a sledge hammer to crack a nut, and a sledge hammer that could have been delivered within 24 hours by Amazon Prime, which granted, defeats the levelling up notion.
A schoolboy error from Drakeford and Gething, and one I won't be losing sleep over. I am sure anything I need from Arthur John can wait two weeks, and I hate the idea of putting coins into Tesco's pockets, pandemic or otherwise.
Still it has raised the pre Christmas cheer in the ranks of the otherwise gloomy PB Tories, so it is not all bad.
For anyone who really needs to read a book but can't get hold of any at all right now, I can recommend Project Gutenberg: https://www.gutenberg.org/ 63,460 free books on there. I reckon you can probably find something worthwhile and good that you haven't read before.
Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?
I'm prepared for such emergencies, and have a spare emergency kettle.
My money is on Trump in Texas. It is the only state where I have backed Trump.
I really really truly hope I lose this bet. Fingers crossed.
Mainly because it means Trump has lost big time.
But also because I much more make up the loss on my other state bets and overall.
I wonder which the safest Republican state is, where you could risk your life savings for a couple of weeks and be confident of a good return? Alaska is 1.16. Montana 1.07. South Carolina 1.1.
This is my nightmare scenario, Biden getting close in places like Texas, but not getting votes where it counts.
So Biden wins the popular vote by 7% and Trump wins the electoral college.
State poll averages in MI, WI and PA not moved greatly, 0.4-0.7 in the last 5 days. So not showing the same tend of 2016 in MI and PA (WI had next to no polling done) that showed the narrowing 10 days from election day that gave trump the very narrow victories he gained in those three.
That might change and we should see any movement on Monday/Tuesday as undecideds start to break and movement from the final debate. If there is no to little change then either Trump is in real trouble or the polls are even further out in those states than last time.
If those 3 stay steady, Biden could if he wanted do a late push in TX, GA, FL, NC, AZ, IA, OH forcing Trump to defend. If they do move Biden will need to try and halt that movement. With NC and AZ still showing some if narrow down air Biden has the advantage as of today, Trump routes to victory remain few and needs a number of things to fall his way.
Right now only the shadow of 2016 is making me nervous.
So on the same error as 2016 Biden will pick up Pennsylvania, narrowly scrape home in Michigan but Trump will hold Wisconsin and if he holds his other 2016 states too then Trump would be re elected 269 to 269 in the EC even with Biden winning the popular vote by more than Hillary did nationally
Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?
I'm prepared for such emergencies, and have a spare emergency kettle.
You're one of those survivalists, aren't you?
No just a lazy person who wants a tea or coffee with maximum speed and minimum fuss.
This is my nightmare scenario, Biden getting close in places like Texas, but not getting votes where it counts.
So Biden wins the popular vote by 7% and Trump wins the electoral college.
State poll averages in MI, WI and PA not moved greatly, 0.4-0.7 in the last 5 days. So not showing the same tend of 2016 in MI and PA (WI had next to no polling done) that showed the narrowing 10 days from election day that gave trump the very narrow victories he gained in those three.
That might change and we should see any movement on Monday/Tuesday as undecideds start to break and movement from the final debate. If there is no to little change then either Trump is in real trouble or the polls are even further out in those states than last time.
If those 3 stay steady, Biden could if he wanted do a late push in TX, GA, FL, NC, AZ, IA, OH forcing Trump to defend. If they do move Biden will need to try and halt that movement. With NC and AZ still showing some if narrow down air Biden has the advantage as of today, Trump routes to victory remain few and needs a number of things to fall his way.
Right now only the shadow of 2016 is making me nervous.
So on the same error as 2016 Biden will pick up Pennsylvania, narrowly scrape home in Michigan but Trump will hold Wisconsin and if he holds his other 2016 states too then Trump would be re elected 269 to 269 in the EC even with Biden winning the popular vote by more than Hillary did nationally
I notice you keep referring to WH2016 and not to more recent national elections, the 2018 midterms, where the pollsters got it pretty right.
I've been really trying to get on board with the indignation being levelled at the Welsh government, but I can't help feeling like people are working themselves up into a bit too much of a froth about it. I'm fully behind the fact that there are absurdities; that is very clear to almost everyone. But at the same time, we are still in a crisis, and a few temporary privations aren't the end of the world.
The kettle one is a great example. Some time ago I was left alone for a week without a kettle. The other half, for reasons that still elude me today, took our only kettle with on a business trip to Scotland. For a week, I had to use a pan to boil water. It wasn't ideal but it wasn't the end of the world. We often hear talk about how some people lack the Blitz spirit, or that some people are too soft and wouldn't have been able to survive when things were really tough. Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?
None of this is to say I even agree with what the Welsh government is doing. I'm only talking about the force of the reaction which, well, seems to be a blend of genuine and inflated outrage.
I'm posting this in the knowledge that I'll be accused of being an apologist to fascism or something, so before you fly off the handle (replacement handles should be available on Amazon.co.uk for under £20), just take the time to check you are disagreeing with something I have actually said.
I wonder if it would have been the same if it had been a Tory regine in Wales?
I was struck the other day by the whining about 5 tiers in Scotland - just on e day after many people here had whined about England haviung too few and needing to add more. Obvs the real crime is not doing the same as the Imperial Masters in London.
For anyone who really needs to read a book but can't get hold of any at all right now, I can recommend Project Gutenberg: https://www.gutenberg.org/ 63,460 free books on there. I reckon you can probably find something worthwhile and good that you haven't read before.
This is my nightmare scenario, Biden getting close in places like Texas, but not getting votes where it counts.
So Biden wins the popular vote by 7% and Trump wins the electoral college.
State poll averages in MI, WI and PA not moved greatly, 0.4-0.7 in the last 5 days. So not showing the same tend of 2016 in MI and PA (WI had next to no polling done) that showed the narrowing 10 days from election day that gave trump the very narrow victories he gained in those three.
That might change and we should see any movement on Monday/Tuesday as undecideds start to break and movement from the final debate. If there is no to little change then either Trump is in real trouble or the polls are even further out in those states than last time.
If those 3 stay steady, Biden could if he wanted do a late push in TX, GA, FL, NC, AZ, IA, OH forcing Trump to defend. If they do move Biden will need to try and halt that movement. With NC and AZ still showing some if narrow down air Biden has the advantage as of today, Trump routes to victory remain few and needs a number of things to fall his way.
Right now only the shadow of 2016 is making me nervous.
So on the same error as 2016 Biden will pick up Pennsylvania, narrowly scrape home in Michigan but Trump will hold Wisconsin and if he holds his other 2016 states too then Trump would be re elected 269 to 269 in the EC even with Biden winning the popular vote by more than Hillary did nationally
I notice you keep referring to WH2016 and not to more recent national elections, the 2018 midterms, where the pollsters got it pretty right.
The 2018 midterms are not a valid comparison as Trump was not on the ballot, there was no shy GOP vote in 2018 or 2014 just as there was no shy Romney vote in 2012, there was a shy Trump vote in 2016 though, especially in Michigan and Wisconsin
For anyone who really needs to read a book but can't get hold of any at all right now, I can recommend Project Gutenberg: https://www.gutenberg.org/ 63,460 free books on there. I reckon you can probably find something worthwhile and good that you haven't read before.
Earlier, in the lockdown proper, I recommended a few books there
For example it explains why he thought he was keen on making his will etc before Trafalgar - nothing to do with superstition. He simply thought that the strategic situation would be 2-1 against him.
This is my nightmare scenario, Biden getting close in places like Texas, but not getting votes where it counts.
So Biden wins the popular vote by 7% and Trump wins the electoral college.
State poll averages in MI, WI and PA not moved greatly, 0.4-0.7 in the last 5 days. So not showing the same tend of 2016 in MI and PA (WI had next to no polling done) that showed the narrowing 10 days from election day that gave trump the very narrow victories he gained in those three.
That might change and we should see any movement on Monday/Tuesday as undecideds start to break and movement from the final debate. If there is no to little change then either Trump is in real trouble or the polls are even further out in those states than last time.
If those 3 stay steady, Biden could if he wanted do a late push in TX, GA, FL, NC, AZ, IA, OH forcing Trump to defend. If they do move Biden will need to try and halt that movement. With NC and AZ still showing some if narrow down air Biden has the advantage as of today, Trump routes to victory remain few and needs a number of things to fall his way.
Right now only the shadow of 2016 is making me nervous.
So on the same error as 2016 Biden will pick up Pennsylvania, narrowly scrape home in Michigan but Trump will hold Wisconsin and if he holds his other 2016 states too then Trump would be re elected 269 to 269 in the EC even with Biden winning the popular vote by more than Hillary did nationally
Biden's oil "gaffe" should get ensure enough Texans hold their noses and get Trump over the line.
Not a bad as Trump's gaffe on the 545 migrant children being held in cages because they can't find their parents.
Awful though that story is, we already knew about it and Trump managed the muddy the water by claiming Biden built them.
Also, many people at the end of the day vote selfishly for their own interests. Hearing that the potential president in a single simple soundbitable clip say oil is going* will have far more effect on wavering voters in Texas.
* You won't get the full context or his claim to more than replace all the jobs with renewables.
Except that context is pretty clear from simple observation. It’s not as though the massive growth in renewables is some distant chimera in Texas; it’s been happening for a while.
And where is Tesla building its newest factory ?
In Texas the wind industry is booming. And despite the snarky comments about retraining - a lot of the jobs are closely related to the oil industry - trucking, welding, moving heavy steel assemblies, crane work, electrical*, trench cutting....
*A surprising amount of oil work involves electrical work.
Texas has more installed wind generation capacity than the UK. They aren't dopes, oil may be big in Texas, but they are also investing in renewables to an extent that would likely surprise most Americans.
Yup - a lot of people from the UK think that Texas is a hot, windless desert. Mainly from old cowboy films - which were almost never shot in Texas.
My money is on Trump in Texas. It is the only state where I have backed Trump.
I really really truly hope I lose this bet. Fingers crossed.
Mainly because it means Trump has lost big time.
But also because I much more make up the loss on my other state bets and overall.
I wonder which the safest Republican state is, where you could risk your life savings for a couple of weeks and be confident of a good return? Alaska is 1.16. Montana 1.07. South Carolina 1.1.
Out of those, South Carolina looks the best?
Didn't someone on here say Alaska was wobbling? Or was that a joke?
I'm fully behind the fact that there are absurdities; that is very clear to almost everyone. But at the same time, we are still in a crisis, and a few temporary privations aren't the end of the world.
Where do you live? Where is the nearest COVID death to you?
There is no crisis where I live. I live in a remote town where there is no COVID, and the nearest death is about 30 miles away.
I am locked down and not allowed to travel more than a few miles from my house. (I was due to travel to England for work on Nov 1st. I won't be able to do that now).
I thought travel for work was an allowed exception?
I am not actually sure whether it is any work or "essential work".
But nonetheless, I will (it seems) run the risk of being stopped by the English police after the border and have to explain and justify my journey and presumably produce evidence that it is "essential".
This is my nightmare scenario, Biden getting close in places like Texas, but not getting votes where it counts.
So Biden wins the popular vote by 7% and Trump wins the electoral college.
State poll averages in MI, WI and PA not moved greatly, 0.4-0.7 in the last 5 days. So not showing the same tend of 2016 in MI and PA (WI had next to no polling done) that showed the narrowing 10 days from election day that gave trump the very narrow victories he gained in those three.
That might change and we should see any movement on Monday/Tuesday as undecideds start to break and movement from the final debate. If there is no to little change then either Trump is in real trouble or the polls are even further out in those states than last time.
If those 3 stay steady, Biden could if he wanted do a late push in TX, GA, FL, NC, AZ, IA, OH forcing Trump to defend. If they do move Biden will need to try and halt that movement. With NC and AZ still showing some if narrow down air Biden has the advantage as of today, Trump routes to victory remain few and needs a number of things to fall his way.
Right now only the shadow of 2016 is making me nervous.
So on the same error as 2016 Biden will pick up Pennsylvania, narrowly scrape home in Michigan but Trump will hold Wisconsin and if he holds his other 2016 states too then Trump would be re elected 269 to 269 in the EC even with Biden winning the popular vote by more than Hillary did nationally
Why would 269-269 mean Trump "re-elected"?
As the House would vote along state lines under the constitution and most states have a GOP delegation even if the Democrats have more representatives overall
My money is on Trump in Texas. It is the only state where I have backed Trump.
I really really truly hope I lose this bet. Fingers crossed.
Mainly because it means Trump has lost big time.
But also because I much more make up the loss on my other state bets and overall.
I wonder which the safest Republican state is, where you could risk your life savings for a couple of weeks and be confident of a good return? Alaska is 1.16. Montana 1.07. South Carolina 1.1.
Out of those, South Carolina looks the best?
Didn't someone on here say Alaska was wobbling? Or was that a joke?
My money is on Trump in Texas. It is the only state where I have backed Trump.
I really really truly hope I lose this bet. Fingers crossed.
Mainly because it means Trump has lost big time.
But also because I much more make up the loss on my other state bets and overall.
I wonder which the safest Republican state is, where you could risk your life savings for a couple of weeks and be confident of a good return? Alaska is 1.16. Montana 1.07. South Carolina 1.1.
Out of those, South Carolina looks the best?
Didn't someone on here say Alaska was wobbling? Or was that a joke?
My money is on Trump in Texas. It is the only state where I have backed Trump.
I really really truly hope I lose this bet. Fingers crossed.
Mainly because it means Trump has lost big time.
But also because I much more make up the loss on my other state bets and overall.
I’ve followed Mike. Not sure that Biden will take the state, but his chances are much better than the odds suggest. (And my much more substantial hedge is in the Trump EV markets on Betfair exchange.)
I put £20 on Democrats winning Texas last Wednesday, stand to win £49, if I cashed out now I'd be 46p down.
I've been really trying to get on board with the indignation being levelled at the Welsh government, but I can't help feeling like people are working themselves up into a bit too much of a froth about it. I'm fully behind the fact that there are absurdities; that is very clear to almost everyone. But at the same time, we are still in a crisis, and a few temporary privations aren't the end of the world.
The kettle one is a great example. Some time ago I was left alone for a week without a kettle. The other half, for reasons that still elude me today, took our only kettle with on a business trip to Scotland. For a week, I had to use a pan to boil water. It wasn't ideal but it wasn't the end of the world. We often hear talk about how some people lack the Blitz spirit, or that some people are too soft and wouldn't have been able to survive when things were really tough. Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?
None of this is to say I even agree with what the Welsh government is doing. I'm only talking about the force of the reaction which, well, seems to be a blend of genuine and inflated outrage.
I'm posting this in the knowledge that I'll be accused of being an apologist to fascism or something, so before you fly off the handle (replacement handles should be available on Amazon.co.uk for under £20), just take the time to check you are disagreeing with something I have actually said.
My example is a corkscrew. I went to Ireland this summer knowing that I'd be locked down for two weeks. I had 36 bottles in the car but when I arrived I found I had no corkscrew. Disaster.
Luckily two of the bottles were champagne which kept me going for a couple of days while I pondered. None of the others were screw tops. On YouTube I saw a video of putting a bottle in the heel of your shoe and vigourously banging the wall with it.
Another video showed the same trick except the bottle broke cutting the person's arm so I abandoned that idea.
I tried putting a screw in the cork and then trapping the screw in the hinge jamb of a door. Opened the bottle but wrecked the hinge.
I then used a claw hammer to lever the screw and cork out. Success. Hard work but worth it.
At the end of the holiday I found the corkscrew out of sight on the top shelf of the liquor cupboard where I had put it out of reach of the grandkids on the previous holiday.
I admire your tenacity. I'd have hammered the corks into the bottles and decanted the wine. It's burning your bridge, because then the wine really needs drunk, but that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make.
If you had a clawhammer you would just clatter the top of the bottle and knock it off then strain it.
This is my nightmare scenario, Biden getting close in places like Texas, but not getting votes where it counts.
So Biden wins the popular vote by 7% and Trump wins the electoral college.
State poll averages in MI, WI and PA not moved greatly, 0.4-0.7 in the last 5 days. So not showing the same tend of 2016 in MI and PA (WI had next to no polling done) that showed the narrowing 10 days from election day that gave trump the very narrow victories he gained in those three.
That might change and we should see any movement on Monday/Tuesday as undecideds start to break and movement from the final debate. If there is no to little change then either Trump is in real trouble or the polls are even further out in those states than last time.
If those 3 stay steady, Biden could if he wanted do a late push in TX, GA, FL, NC, AZ, IA, OH forcing Trump to defend. If they do move Biden will need to try and halt that movement. With NC and AZ still showing some if narrow down air Biden has the advantage as of today, Trump routes to victory remain few and needs a number of things to fall his way.
Right now only the shadow of 2016 is making me nervous.
So on the same error as 2016 Biden will pick up Pennsylvania, narrowly scrape home in Michigan but Trump will hold Wisconsin and if he holds his other 2016 states too then Trump would be re elected 269 to 269 in the EC even with Biden winning the popular vote by more than Hillary did nationally
Why would 269-269 mean Trump "re-elected"?
As the House would vote along state lines under the constitution and most states have a GOP delegation even if the Democrats have more representatives overall
Will that be the case after the election? Or is it the old House?
This is my nightmare scenario, Biden getting close in places like Texas, but not getting votes where it counts.
So Biden wins the popular vote by 7% and Trump wins the electoral college.
State poll averages in MI, WI and PA not moved greatly, 0.4-0.7 in the last 5 days. So not showing the same tend of 2016 in MI and PA (WI had next to no polling done) that showed the narrowing 10 days from election day that gave trump the very narrow victories he gained in those three.
That might change and we should see any movement on Monday/Tuesday as undecideds start to break and movement from the final debate. If there is no to little change then either Trump is in real trouble or the polls are even further out in those states than last time.
If those 3 stay steady, Biden could if he wanted do a late push in TX, GA, FL, NC, AZ, IA, OH forcing Trump to defend. If they do move Biden will need to try and halt that movement. With NC and AZ still showing some if narrow down air Biden has the advantage as of today, Trump routes to victory remain few and needs a number of things to fall his way.
Right now only the shadow of 2016 is making me nervous.
So on the same error as 2016 Biden will pick up Pennsylvania, narrowly scrape home in Michigan but Trump will hold Wisconsin and if he holds his other 2016 states too then Trump would be re elected 269 to 269 in the EC even with Biden winning the popular vote by more than Hillary did nationally
Why would 269-269 mean Trump "re-elected"?
As the House would vote along state lines under the constitution and most states have a GOP delegation even if the Democrats have more representatives overall
That would make for a peaceful 4 years. And an open invitation to bribe EC delegates.
I've been really trying to get on board with the indignation being levelled at the Welsh government, but I can't help feeling like people are working themselves up into a bit too much of a froth about it. I'm fully behind the fact that there are absurdities; that is very clear to almost everyone. But at the same time, we are still in a crisis, and a few temporary privations aren't the end of the world.
The kettle one is a great example. Some time ago I was left alone for a week without a kettle. The other half, for reasons that still elude me today, took our only kettle with on a business trip to Scotland. For a week, I had to use a pan to boil water. It wasn't ideal but it wasn't the end of the world. We often hear talk about how some people lack the Blitz spirit, or that some people are too soft and wouldn't have been able to survive when things were really tough. Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?
None of this is to say I even agree with what the Welsh government is doing. I'm only talking about the force of the reaction which, well, seems to be a blend of genuine and inflated outrage.
I'm posting this in the knowledge that I'll be accused of being an apologist to fascism or something, so before you fly off the handle (replacement handles should be available on Amazon.co.uk for under £20), just take the time to check you are disagreeing with something I have actually said.
My example is a corkscrew. I went to Ireland this summer knowing that I'd be locked down for two weeks. I had 36 bottles in the car but when I arrived I found I had no corkscrew. Disaster.
Luckily two of the bottles were champagne which kept me going for a couple of days while I pondered. None of the others were screw tops. On YouTube I saw a video of putting a bottle in the heel of your shoe and vigourously banging the wall with it.
Another video showed the same trick except the bottle broke cutting the person's arm so I abandoned that idea.
I tried putting a screw in the cork and then trapping the screw in the hinge jamb of a door. Opened the bottle but wrecked the hinge.
I then used a claw hammer to lever the screw and cork out. Success. Hard work but worth it.
At the end of the holiday I found the corkscrew out of sight on the top shelf of the liquor cupboard where I had put it out of reach of the grandkids on the previous holiday.
I admire your tenacity. I'd have hammered the corks into the bottles and decanted the wine. It's burning your bridge, because then the wine really needs drunk, but that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make.
If you had a clawhammer you would just clatter the top of the bottle and knock it off then strain it.
Who said anything about a claw hammer? A frozen haggis and a Ladbrokes pencil will do the trick.
This is my nightmare scenario, Biden getting close in places like Texas, but not getting votes where it counts.
So Biden wins the popular vote by 7% and Trump wins the electoral college.
State poll averages in MI, WI and PA not moved greatly, 0.4-0.7 in the last 5 days. So not showing the same tend of 2016 in MI and PA (WI had next to no polling done) that showed the narrowing 10 days from election day that gave trump the very narrow victories he gained in those three.
That might change and we should see any movement on Monday/Tuesday as undecideds start to break and movement from the final debate. If there is no to little change then either Trump is in real trouble or the polls are even further out in those states than last time.
If those 3 stay steady, Biden could if he wanted do a late push in TX, GA, FL, NC, AZ, IA, OH forcing Trump to defend. If they do move Biden will need to try and halt that movement. With NC and AZ still showing some if narrow down air Biden has the advantage as of today, Trump routes to victory remain few and needs a number of things to fall his way.
Right now only the shadow of 2016 is making me nervous.
So on the same error as 2016 Biden will pick up Pennsylvania, narrowly scrape home in Michigan but Trump will hold Wisconsin and if he holds his other 2016 states too then Trump would be re elected 269 to 269 in the EC even with Biden winning the popular vote by more than Hillary did nationally
Why would 269-269 mean Trump "re-elected"?
As the House would vote along state lines under the constitution and most states have a GOP delegation even if the Democrats have more representatives overall
Will that be the case after the election? Or is it the old House?
This is my nightmare scenario, Biden getting close in places like Texas, but not getting votes where it counts.
So Biden wins the popular vote by 7% and Trump wins the electoral college.
State poll averages in MI, WI and PA not moved greatly, 0.4-0.7 in the last 5 days. So not showing the same tend of 2016 in MI and PA (WI had next to no polling done) that showed the narrowing 10 days from election day that gave trump the very narrow victories he gained in those three.
That might change and we should see any movement on Monday/Tuesday as undecideds start to break and movement from the final debate. If there is no to little change then either Trump is in real trouble or the polls are even further out in those states than last time.
If those 3 stay steady, Biden could if he wanted do a late push in TX, GA, FL, NC, AZ, IA, OH forcing Trump to defend. If they do move Biden will need to try and halt that movement. With NC and AZ still showing some if narrow down air Biden has the advantage as of today, Trump routes to victory remain few and needs a number of things to fall his way.
Right now only the shadow of 2016 is making me nervous.
So on the same error as 2016 Biden will pick up Pennsylvania, narrowly scrape home in Michigan but Trump will hold Wisconsin and if he holds his other 2016 states too then Trump would be re elected 269 to 269 in the EC even with Biden winning the popular vote by more than Hillary did nationally
Why would 269-269 mean Trump "re-elected"?
As the House would vote along state lines under the constitution and most states have a GOP delegation even if the Democrats have more representatives overall
Will that be the case after the election? Or is it the old House?
You don't give up. A hundred lines for you "Trafalgar are not a polling organisation, if Robert Cahaly calls it correctly for Trump, it was a good guess".
This is my nightmare scenario, Biden getting close in places like Texas, but not getting votes where it counts.
So Biden wins the popular vote by 7% and Trump wins the electoral college.
State poll averages in MI, WI and PA not moved greatly, 0.4-0.7 in the last 5 days. So not showing the same tend of 2016 in MI and PA (WI had next to no polling done) that showed the narrowing 10 days from election day that gave trump the very narrow victories he gained in those three.
That might change and we should see any movement on Monday/Tuesday as undecideds start to break and movement from the final debate. If there is no to little change then either Trump is in real trouble or the polls are even further out in those states than last time.
If those 3 stay steady, Biden could if he wanted do a late push in TX, GA, FL, NC, AZ, IA, OH forcing Trump to defend. If they do move Biden will need to try and halt that movement. With NC and AZ still showing some if narrow down air Biden has the advantage as of today, Trump routes to victory remain few and needs a number of things to fall his way.
Right now only the shadow of 2016 is making me nervous.
So on the same error as 2016 Biden will pick up Pennsylvania, narrowly scrape home in Michigan but Trump will hold Wisconsin and if he holds his other 2016 states too then Trump would be re elected 269 to 269 in the EC even with Biden winning the popular vote by more than Hillary did nationally
I notice you keep referring to WH2016 and not to more recent national elections, the 2018 midterms, where the pollsters got it pretty right.
The 2018 midterms are not a valid comparison as Trump was not on the ballot, there was no shy GOP vote in 2018 or 2014 just as there was no shy Romney vote in 2012, there was a shy Trump vote in 2016 though, especially in Michigan and Wisconsin
IF Trumpsky is such a unique phenomenon that he defies best (or worst) efforts of pollsters to say sooth about him, then WHY would anyone trust ANY polling when The Donald is on the ballot?
Personally think the Shy Trumpskyites are LESS of a factor than the Shy Kanye vote.
BUT we shall see, won't we?
IF you are correct, you'll get my nomination for PBer of the Year. PLUS an autographed picture of . . . wait for it . . . Jared Kushner!
Has HYUFD given his reasoning for WHY Trafalgar did so badly in 2018 Mid-terms? I mean, after all, if their method is so superior then they must have some very good base data from which they can then import their "shy Trump" adjustment.
Is he suggesting that for some reason they were under the impression that Trump was on the ballot in 2018 and made the mistake of including the "adjustment" to their sound base data?
Or is it in reality that their base date, if it exists at all, is just a crock of sh*t? Or that the base data is just what other pollsters do with 6pts added to Trump? In which case he should perhaps answer the question i have repeatedly asked him about what he thinks the impact is of the changes in methodology that most pollsters have made since 2016... Which might rather undermine the Trafalgar "model"...
My money is on Trump in Texas. It is the only state where I have backed Trump.
I really really truly hope I lose this bet. Fingers crossed.
Mainly because it means Trump has lost big time.
But also because I much more make up the loss on my other state bets and overall.
I wonder which the safest Republican state is, where you could risk your life savings for a couple of weeks and be confident of a good return? Alaska is 1.16. Montana 1.07. South Carolina 1.1.
My money is on Trump in Texas. It is the only state where I have backed Trump.
I really really truly hope I lose this bet. Fingers crossed.
Mainly because it means Trump has lost big time.
But also because I much more make up the loss on my other state bets and overall.
I wonder which the safest Republican state is, where you could risk your life savings for a couple of weeks and be confident of a good return? Alaska is 1.16. Montana 1.07. South Carolina 1.1.
Out of those, South Carolina looks the best?
I would think that Montana is the safest. The odds indicate that as well. I wouldn't bet my life savings on anything - certainly not on anything to do with this election! £700 is my limit so far. I was tempted to lay Hillary recently when she came up again as next President - lay £2 at 1000/1. Not worth the hassle moving the funds to win £2.
I've been really trying to get on board with the indignation being levelled at the Welsh government, but I can't help feeling like people are working themselves up into a bit too much of a froth about it. I'm fully behind the fact that there are absurdities; that is very clear to almost everyone. But at the same time, we are still in a crisis, and a few temporary privations aren't the end of the world.
The kettle one is a great example. Some time ago I was left alone for a week without a kettle. The other half, for reasons that still elude me today, took our only kettle with on a business trip to Scotland. For a week, I had to use a pan to boil water. It wasn't ideal but it wasn't the end of the world. We often hear talk about how some people lack the Blitz spirit, or that some people are too soft and wouldn't have been able to survive when things were really tough. Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?
None of this is to say I even agree with what the Welsh government is doing. I'm only talking about the force of the reaction which, well, seems to be a blend of genuine and inflated outrage.
I'm posting this in the knowledge that I'll be accused of being an apologist to fascism or something, so before you fly off the handle (replacement handles should be available on Amazon.co.uk for under £20), just take the time to check you are disagreeing with something I have actually said.
The issue is not whether you can do without it. The issue is whether what the Welsh government is doing is legal under the regulations it has brought in. And as far as I can see it isn’t.
I wonder if the Republican boosters of Trump's chances aren't actually keeping the Biden camp on their toes right up to the tape. Could be helping Biden.
You don't give up. A hundred lines for you "Trafalgar are not a polling organisation, if Robert Cahaly calls it correctly for Trump, it was a good guess".
IF Trump wins, I don;t think anybody gets to be called a polling organisation....
Has HYUFD given his reasoning for WHY Trafalgar did so badly in 2018 Mid-terms? I mean, after all, if their method is so superior then they must have some very good base data from which they can then import their "shy Trump" adjustment.
Is he suggesting that for some reason they were under the impression that Trump was on the ballot in 2018 and made the mistake of including the "adjustment" to their sound base data?
Or is it in reality that their base date, if it exists at all, is just a crock of sh*t? Or that the base data is just what other pollsters do with 6pts added to Trump? In which case he should perhaps answer the question i have repeatedly asked him about what he thinks the impact is of the changes in methodology that most pollsters have made since 2016... Which might rather undermine the Trafalgar "model"...
They weren't that bad even in 2018, they correctly had DeSantis winning Florida unlike other pollsters they only got Georgia really badly wrong and in the article I linked to he admits that but overall they still were far better at identifying the shy Trump vote in 2016 than other pollsters were, especially in the rustbelt
I've been really trying to get on board with the indignation being levelled at the Welsh government, but I can't help feeling like people are working themselves up into a bit too much of a froth about it. I'm fully behind the fact that there are absurdities; that is very clear to almost everyone. But at the same time, we are still in a crisis, and a few temporary privations aren't the end of the world.
The kettle one is a great example. Some time ago I was left alone for a week without a kettle. The other half, for reasons that still elude me today, took our only kettle with on a business trip to Scotland. For a week, I had to use a pan to boil water. It wasn't ideal but it wasn't the end of the world. We often hear talk about how some people lack the Blitz spirit, or that some people are too soft and wouldn't have been able to survive when things were really tough. Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?
None of this is to say I even agree with what the Welsh government is doing. I'm only talking about the force of the reaction which, well, seems to be a blend of genuine and inflated outrage.
I'm posting this in the knowledge that I'll be accused of being an apologist to fascism or something, so before you fly off the handle (replacement handles should be available on Amazon.co.uk for under £20), just take the time to check you are disagreeing with something I have actually said.
My example is a corkscrew. I went to Ireland this summer knowing that I'd be locked down for two weeks. I had 36 bottles in the car but when I arrived I found I had no corkscrew. Disaster.
Luckily two of the bottles were champagne which kept me going for a couple of days while I pondered. None of the others were screw tops. On YouTube I saw a video of putting a bottle in the heel of your shoe and vigourously banging the wall with it.
Another video showed the same trick except the bottle broke cutting the person's arm so I abandoned that idea.
I tried putting a screw in the cork and then trapping the screw in the hinge jamb of a door. Opened the bottle but wrecked the hinge.
I then used a claw hammer to lever the screw and cork out. Success. Hard work but worth it.
At the end of the holiday I found the corkscrew out of sight on the top shelf of the liquor cupboard where I had put it out of reach of the grandkids on the previous holiday.
I admire your tenacity. I'd have hammered the corks into the bottles and decanted the wine. It's burning your bridge, because then the wine really needs drunk, but that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make.
If you had a clawhammer you would just clatter the top of the bottle and knock it off then strain it.
I wouldn't need a clawhammer for that. I could use my teeth.
This is my nightmare scenario, Biden getting close in places like Texas, but not getting votes where it counts.
So Biden wins the popular vote by 7% and Trump wins the electoral college.
State poll averages in MI, WI and PA not moved greatly, 0.4-0.7 in the last 5 days. So not showing the same tend of 2016 in MI and PA (WI had next to no polling done) that showed the narrowing 10 days from election day that gave trump the very narrow victories he gained in those three.
That might change and we should see any movement on Monday/Tuesday as undecideds start to break and movement from the final debate. If there is no to little change then either Trump is in real trouble or the polls are even further out in those states than last time.
If those 3 stay steady, Biden could if he wanted do a late push in TX, GA, FL, NC, AZ, IA, OH forcing Trump to defend. If they do move Biden will need to try and halt that movement. With NC and AZ still showing some if narrow down air Biden has the advantage as of today, Trump routes to victory remain few and needs a number of things to fall his way.
Right now only the shadow of 2016 is making me nervous.
So on the same error as 2016 Biden will pick up Pennsylvania, narrowly scrape home in Michigan but Trump will hold Wisconsin and if he holds his other 2016 states too then Trump would be re elected 269 to 269 in the EC even with Biden winning the popular vote by more than Hillary did nationally
Why would 269-269 mean Trump "re-elected"?
As the House would vote along state lines under the constitution and most states have a GOP delegation even if the Democrats have more representatives overall
Will that be the case after the election? Or is it the old House?
It would be the old House until inaugration day
You are right about the election being decided - by the "old House" elected in 2018.
BUT you are wrong about the "old House" being in office "until inauguration day".
Note that the new Congress takes office January 3, 2021; whereas presidential term ends (and new one begins) on January 20, 2021.
Has HYUFD given his reasoning for WHY Trafalgar did so badly in 2018 Mid-terms? I mean, after all, if their method is so superior then they must have some very good base data from which they can then import their "shy Trump" adjustment.
Is he suggesting that for some reason they were under the impression that Trump was on the ballot in 2018 and made the mistake of including the "adjustment" to their sound base data?
Or is it in reality that their base date, if it exists at all, is just a crock of sh*t? Or that the base data is just what other pollsters do with 6pts added to Trump? In which case he should perhaps answer the question i have repeatedly asked him about what he thinks the impact is of the changes in methodology that most pollsters have made since 2016... Which might rather undermine the Trafalgar "model"...
This is my nightmare scenario, Biden getting close in places like Texas, but not getting votes where it counts.
So Biden wins the popular vote by 7% and Trump wins the electoral college.
State poll averages in MI, WI and PA not moved greatly, 0.4-0.7 in the last 5 days. So not showing the same tend of 2016 in MI and PA (WI had next to no polling done) that showed the narrowing 10 days from election day that gave trump the very narrow victories he gained in those three.
That might change and we should see any movement on Monday/Tuesday as undecideds start to break and movement from the final debate. If there is no to little change then either Trump is in real trouble or the polls are even further out in those states than last time.
If those 3 stay steady, Biden could if he wanted do a late push in TX, GA, FL, NC, AZ, IA, OH forcing Trump to defend. If they do move Biden will need to try and halt that movement. With NC and AZ still showing some if narrow down air Biden has the advantage as of today, Trump routes to victory remain few and needs a number of things to fall his way.
Right now only the shadow of 2016 is making me nervous.
So on the same error as 2016 Biden will pick up Pennsylvania, narrowly scrape home in Michigan but Trump will hold Wisconsin and if he holds his other 2016 states too then Trump would be re elected 269 to 269 in the EC even with Biden winning the popular vote by more than Hillary did nationally
Why would 269-269 mean Trump "re-elected"?
As the House would vote along state lines under the constitution and most states have a GOP delegation even if the Democrats have more representatives overall
Will that be the case after the election? Or is it the old House?
Even so the Democrats already have a House majority won in 2018, they would need a landslide win to have control of most state delegations and if they won a landslide win it would likely be a Biden landslide too and not a tie in the EC anyway
Has HYUFD given his reasoning for WHY Trafalgar did so badly in 2018 Mid-terms? I mean, after all, if their method is so superior then they must have some very good base data from which they can then import their "shy Trump" adjustment.
Is he suggesting that for some reason they were under the impression that Trump was on the ballot in 2018 and made the mistake of including the "adjustment" to their sound base data?
Or is it in reality that their base date, if it exists at all, is just a crock of sh*t? Or that the base data is just what other pollsters do with 6pts added to Trump? In which case he should perhaps answer the question i have repeatedly asked him about what he thinks the impact is of the changes in methodology that most pollsters have made since 2016... Which might rather undermine the Trafalgar "model"...
They weren't that bad even in 2018, they correctly had DeSantis winning Florida unlike other pollsters they only got Georgia really badly wrong and in the article I linked to he admits that but overall they still were far better at identifying the shy Trump vote in 2016 than other pollsters were, especially in the rustbelt
In every poll that I have seen that has asked Americans how they think their neighbours are voting, Trump has a huge lead.
Indicative of a shy Trump factor? has to be, for me.
I wonder if the Republican boosters of Trump's chances aren't actually keeping the Biden camp on their toes right up to the tape. Could be helping Biden.
If they are shy Trump voters what difference would Biden's campaign make, they have already made up their minds to vote for Trump, they are just not telling anybody.
Has HYUFD given his reasoning for WHY Trafalgar did so badly in 2018 Mid-terms? I mean, after all, if their method is so superior then they must have some very good base data from which they can then import their "shy Trump" adjustment.
Is he suggesting that for some reason they were under the impression that Trump was on the ballot in 2018 and made the mistake of including the "adjustment" to their sound base data?
Or is it in reality that their base date, if it exists at all, is just a crock of sh*t? Or that the base data is just what other pollsters do with 6pts added to Trump? In which case he should perhaps answer the question i have repeatedly asked him about what he thinks the impact is of the changes in methodology that most pollsters have made since 2016... Which might rather undermine the Trafalgar "model"...
They weren't that bad even in 2018, they correctly had DeSantis winning Florida unlike other pollsters they only got Georgia really badly wrong and in the article I linked to he admits that but overall they still were far better at identifying the shy Trump vote in 2016 than other pollsters were, especially in the rustbelt
As I outlined previously, IMHO the Trafalgar groups is NOT doing polling, at least as the word is commonly understood.
Instead it appears that they take keypad responses to text & robocall push-poll messages ("Would your neighbors be more or less likely to vote for Joe Biden if they knew he eats babies for breakfast?" then they massage the responses into cookie-cutter demographics (which is why same breakdowns get repeated from one survey to another.
In other words, recycling direct voter propaganda then recycling it as "polling".
The Ghost of Lee Atwater MUST be pleased as he warms himself by the eternal fires of Hell . . .
Certainly the democrats *seemed* fired up - some evidence of higher voting levels among those who aren't normally likely to vote.
Much less evidence on the Trump side of that - certainly there are hard core EverTrumpers... but what about the rest of the Republican vote?
'The latest IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll has some similarities with the Trump vs. Clinton race. Republicans again seem more excited about their candidate. '
I wonder if the Republican boosters of Trump's chances aren't actually keeping the Biden camp on their toes right up to the tape. Could be helping Biden.
If they are shy Trump voters what difference would Biden's campaign make, they have already made up their minds to vote for Trump, they are just not telling anybody.
Read the article
Biden's campaign might not make a difference to committed Trump voters but the Trump boosters might keep the Biden GOTV operation on their toes. The relative turnout matters.
The article won't persuade people to vote for Trump. It'll give Trump supporters some comfort, and fire up Biden supporters.
Has HYUFD given his reasoning for WHY Trafalgar did so badly in 2018 Mid-terms? I mean, after all, if their method is so superior then they must have some very good base data from which they can then import their "shy Trump" adjustment.
Is he suggesting that for some reason they were under the impression that Trump was on the ballot in 2018 and made the mistake of including the "adjustment" to their sound base data?
Or is it in reality that their base date, if it exists at all, is just a crock of sh*t? Or that the base data is just what other pollsters do with 6pts added to Trump? In which case he should perhaps answer the question i have repeatedly asked him about what he thinks the impact is of the changes in methodology that most pollsters have made since 2016... Which might rather undermine the Trafalgar "model"...
They weren't that bad even in 2018, they correctly had DeSantis winning Florida unlike other pollsters they only got Georgia really badly wrong and in the article I linked to he admits that but overall they still were far better at identifying the shy Trump vote in 2016 than other pollsters were, especially in the rustbelt
As I outlined previously, IMHO the Trafalgar groups is NOT doing polling, at least as the word is commonly understood.
Instead it appears that they take keypad responses to text & robocall push-poll messages ("Would your neighbors be more or less likely to vote for Joe Biden if they knew he eats babies for breakfast?" then they massage the responses into cookie-cutter demographics (which is why same breakdowns get repeated from one survey to another.
In other words, recycling direct voter propaganda then recycling it as "polling".
The Ghost of Lee Atwater MUST be pleased as he warms himself by the eternal fires of Hell . . .
Do you have any actual evidence of these practices? Or are they just made up because the polls don;t give the result you want?
Has HYUFD given his reasoning for WHY Trafalgar did so badly in 2018 Mid-terms? I mean, after all, if their method is so superior then they must have some very good base data from which they can then import their "shy Trump" adjustment.
Is he suggesting that for some reason they were under the impression that Trump was on the ballot in 2018 and made the mistake of including the "adjustment" to their sound base data?
Or is it in reality that their base date, if it exists at all, is just a crock of sh*t? Or that the base data is just what other pollsters do with 6pts added to Trump? In which case he should perhaps answer the question i have repeatedly asked him about what he thinks the impact is of the changes in methodology that most pollsters have made since 2016... Which might rather undermine the Trafalgar "model"...
They weren't that bad even in 2018, they correctly had DeSantis winning Florida unlike other pollsters they only got Georgia really badly wrong and in the article I linked to he admits that but overall they still were far better at identifying the shy Trump vote in 2016 than other pollsters were, especially in the rustbelt
In every poll that I have seen that has asked Americans how they think their neighbours are voting, Trump has a huge lead.
Indicative of a shy Trump factor? has to be, for me.
I don't follow that. If Americans think their neighbours are voting Trump, it doesn't indicate that their neighbours are shy. Quite the opposite.
I wonder if the Republican boosters of Trump's chances aren't actually keeping the Biden camp on their toes right up to the tape. Could be helping Biden.
If they are shy Trump voters what difference would Biden's campaign make, they have already made up their minds to vote for Trump, they are just not telling anybody.
Read the article
Biden's campaign might not make a difference to committed Trump voters but the Trump boosters might keep the Biden GOTV operation on their toes. The relative turnout matters.
The article won't persuade people to vote for Trump. It'll give Trump supporters some comfort, and fire up Biden supporters.
Biden supporters are so fired up that literally dozens turn up to his rallies when he ventures out the basement. I read a report that half a dozen turned up to a Kamala Harris event. They were outnumbered by pro Trump hecklers apparently.
I've been really trying to get on board with the indignation being levelled at the Welsh government, but I can't help feeling like people are working themselves up into a bit too much of a froth about it. I'm fully behind the fact that there are absurdities; that is very clear to almost everyone. But at the same time, we are still in a crisis, and a few temporary privations aren't the end of the world.
The kettle one is a great example. Some time ago I was left alone for a week without a kettle. The other half, for reasons that still elude me today, took our only kettle with on a business trip to Scotland. For a week, I had to use a pan to boil water. It wasn't ideal but it wasn't the end of the world. We often hear talk about how some people lack the Blitz spirit, or that some people are too soft and wouldn't have been able to survive when things were really tough. Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?
None of this is to say I even agree with what the Welsh government is doing. I'm only talking about the force of the reaction which, well, seems to be a blend of genuine and inflated outrage.
I'm posting this in the knowledge that I'll be accused of being an apologist to fascism or something, so before you fly off the handle (replacement handles should be available on Amazon.co.uk for under £20), just take the time to check you are disagreeing with something I have actually said.
Given the apparent ineffectiveness so far of the approach in England, I do agree with what the Welsh Government is doing. I suspect that much of the criticism on here is driven by people who don't like Drakeford and are therefore jumping at the chance to avoid seeing the wood for the trees by citing spurious examples of minor inconvenience from shopping restrictions.
What Drakeford has done is to curtail shopping as an indoor leisure activity for 17 days as part of an intense lockdown of short duration. For an effective circuit breaker, I don't see how you can do anything else but minimise interactions in major stores. For non-exempt goods, the vast majority of affected potential purchases will be discretionary ones, and people will have to either put those off for a couple of weeks or order for delivery with a wait of a couple of days. Other than for something really essential, most people will wait and independent retailers will still have a chance to compete with the big chains for that custom in due course. So it protects small retailers market share as much as you can in the circumstances of a circuit breaker.
The restrictions in England will in my view last many more months without being effective and that duration makes them unbelieveably costly even though they may still destroy some businesses for good. There isn't an end date for those restrictions or even know criteria for ending them. England is in limbo until the new year, and the scale of the restrictions is slowly extending across the country. There are reports today that the Government are working up a Tier 4 as they suspect that even Tier 3 will prove ineffective.
We should all be thankful that Wales is at least trying out a contrasting strategy, piloting a much more intensive alternative which if it works will apply restrictions for a far shorter period. If it works, it will get the virus down to low levels, sufficient give otherwise overwhelmed systems a chance to contain it in Wales, so long as it doesn't spread back in from England. If the Welsh approach fails, then in a few weeks we'll know that there's not going to be much point of trying to apply it the remaining 95% of the UK population either, and only then will Drakeford deserve criticism especially if he persists with that approach regardless.
Has HYUFD given his reasoning for WHY Trafalgar did so badly in 2018 Mid-terms? I mean, after all, if their method is so superior then they must have some very good base data from which they can then import their "shy Trump" adjustment.
Is he suggesting that for some reason they were under the impression that Trump was on the ballot in 2018 and made the mistake of including the "adjustment" to their sound base data?
Or is it in reality that their base date, if it exists at all, is just a crock of sh*t? Or that the base data is just what other pollsters do with 6pts added to Trump? In which case he should perhaps answer the question i have repeatedly asked him about what he thinks the impact is of the changes in methodology that most pollsters have made since 2016... Which might rather undermine the Trafalgar "model"...
They weren't that bad even in 2018, they correctly had DeSantis winning Florida unlike other pollsters they only got Georgia really badly wrong and in the article I linked to he admits that but overall they still were far better at identifying the shy Trump vote in 2016 than other pollsters were, especially in the rustbelt
In every poll that I have seen that has asked Americans how they think their neighbours are voting, Trump has a huge lead.
Indicative of a shy Trump factor? has to be, for me.
I don't follow that. If Americans think their neighbours are voting Trump, it doesn't indicate that their neighbours are shy. Quite the opposite.
Or that many Americans are still stung by the experience of 2016, when, against all expectations, so many of their neighbours turned out unexpectedly for Trump. And are fearing the same again. Just as so many PB Tories spent the 2019 campaign waiting for the Corbyn surprise...
I've been really trying to get on board with the indignation being levelled at the Welsh government, but I can't help feeling like people are working themselves up into a bit too much of a froth about it. I'm fully behind the fact that there are absurdities; that is very clear to almost everyone. But at the same time, we are still in a crisis, and a few temporary privations aren't the end of the world.
The kettle one is a great example. Some time ago I was left alone for a week without a kettle. The other half, for reasons that still elude me today, took our only kettle with on a business trip to Scotland. For a week, I had to use a pan to boil water. It wasn't ideal but it wasn't the end of the world. We often hear talk about how some people lack the Blitz spirit, or that some people are too soft and wouldn't have been able to survive when things were really tough. Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?
None of this is to say I even agree with what the Welsh government is doing. I'm only talking about the force of the reaction which, well, seems to be a blend of genuine and inflated outrage.
I'm posting this in the knowledge that I'll be accused of being an apologist to fascism or something, so before you fly off the handle (replacement handles should be available on Amazon.co.uk for under £20), just take the time to check you are disagreeing with something I have actually said.
Given the apparent ineffectiveness so far of the approach in England, I do agree with what the Welsh Government is doing. I suspect that much of the criticism on here is driven by people who don't like Drakeford and are therefore jumping at the chance to avoid seeing the wood for the trees by citing spurious examples of minor inconvenience from shopping restrictions.
What Drakeford has done is to curtail shopping as an indoor leisure activity for 17 days as part of an intense lockdown of short duration. For an effective circuit breaker, I don't see how you can do anything else but minimise interactions in major stores. For non-exempt goods, the vast majority of affected potential purchases will be discretionary ones, and people will have to either put those off for a couple of weeks or order for delivery with a wait of a couple of days. Other than for something really essential, most people will wait and independent retailers will still have a chance to compete with the big chains for that custom in due course. So it protects small retailers market share as much as you can in the circumstances of a circuit breaker.
The restrictions in England will in my view last many more months without being effective and that duration makes them unbelieveably costly even though they may still destroy some businesses for good. There isn't an end date for those restrictions or even know criteria for ending them. England is in limbo until the new year, and the scale of the restrictions is slowly extending across the country. There are reports today that the Government are working up a Tier 4 as they suspect that even Tier 3 will prove ineffective.
We should all be thankful that Wales is at least trying out a contrasting strategy, piloting a much more intensive alternative which if it works will apply restrictions for a far shorter period. If it works, it will get the virus down to low levels, sufficient give otherwise overwhelmed systems a chance to contain it in Wales, so long as it doesn't spread back in from England. If the Welsh approach fails, then in a few weeks we'll know that there's not going to be much point of trying to apply it the remaining 95% of the UK population either, and only then will Drakeford deserve criticism especially if he persists with that approach regardless.
It's fine. Some confusion about the execution etc, and clearly some confusion about the border. The Welsh government get to choose, and they've chosen. Governments everywhere can only be expected to go with what they think/guess is right.
Has HYUFD given his reasoning for WHY Trafalgar did so badly in 2018 Mid-terms? I mean, after all, if their method is so superior then they must have some very good base data from which they can then import their "shy Trump" adjustment.
Is he suggesting that for some reason they were under the impression that Trump was on the ballot in 2018 and made the mistake of including the "adjustment" to their sound base data?
Or is it in reality that their base date, if it exists at all, is just a crock of sh*t? Or that the base data is just what other pollsters do with 6pts added to Trump? In which case he should perhaps answer the question i have repeatedly asked him about what he thinks the impact is of the changes in methodology that most pollsters have made since 2016... Which might rather undermine the Trafalgar "model"...
They weren't that bad even in 2018, they correctly had DeSantis winning Florida unlike other pollsters they only got Georgia really badly wrong and in the article I linked to he admits that but overall they still were far better at identifying the shy Trump vote in 2016 than other pollsters were, especially in the rustbelt
In every poll that I have seen that has asked Americans how they think their neighbours are voting, Trump has a huge lead.
Indicative of a shy Trump factor? has to be, for me.
I don't follow that. If Americans think their neighbours are voting Trump, it doesn't indicate that their neighbours are shy. Quite the opposite.
Massive difference between your neighbour and a pollster. Ask the honest pollsters how easy it is to get responses from some big Trump supporting rural areas in swing states.
Some firms don;t even bother. They just poll the liberal cities. That's why I reckon they are a country mile out.
I wonder if the Republican boosters of Trump's chances aren't actually keeping the Biden camp on their toes right up to the tape. Could be helping Biden.
If they are shy Trump voters what difference would Biden's campaign make, they have already made up their minds to vote for Trump, they are just not telling anybody.
Read the article
Biden's campaign might not make a difference to committed Trump voters but the Trump boosters might keep the Biden GOTV operation on their toes. The relative turnout matters.
The article won't persuade people to vote for Trump. It'll give Trump supporters some comfort, and fire up Biden supporters.
Biden supporters are so fired up that literally dozens turn up to his rallies when he ventures out the basement. I read a report that half a dozen turned up to a Kamala Harris event. They were outnumbered by pro Trump hecklers apparently.
How many times do you have to be told?
The Biden campaign are purposely holding small events because you know they aren't arseholes and don't want their supporters to catch Covid-19.
We rate the claim that photos of Biden's small campaign events show a low-turnout rally as MISSING CONTEXT. Biden is hosting smaller campaign events than Trump, but it has significantly more to do with his adherence to social distancing guidelines rather than his lack of popularity.
Certainly the democrats *seemed* fired up - some evidence of higher voting levels among those who aren't normally likely to vote.
Much less evidence on the Trump side of that - certainly there are hard core EverTrumpers... but what about the rest of the Republican vote?
'The latest IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll has some similarities with the Trump vs. Clinton race. Republicans again seem more excited about their candidate. '
Unfortunately they were only asking people who bought Marmite how much they liked it. They didn't ask people who avoided Marmite how much they disliked it (and in this case the answer is that they detest it in record numbers).
This is my nightmare scenario, Biden getting close in places like Texas, but not getting votes where it counts.
So Biden wins the popular vote by 7% and Trump wins the electoral college.
State poll averages in MI, WI and PA not moved greatly, 0.4-0.7 in the last 5 days. So not showing the same tend of 2016 in MI and PA (WI had next to no polling done) that showed the narrowing 10 days from election day that gave trump the very narrow victories he gained in those three.
That might change and we should see any movement on Monday/Tuesday as undecideds start to break and movement from the final debate. If there is no to little change then either Trump is in real trouble or the polls are even further out in those states than last time.
If those 3 stay steady, Biden could if he wanted do a late push in TX, GA, FL, NC, AZ, IA, OH forcing Trump to defend. If they do move Biden will need to try and halt that movement. With NC and AZ still showing some if narrow down air Biden has the advantage as of today, Trump routes to victory remain few and needs a number of things to fall his way.
Right now only the shadow of 2016 is making me nervous.
So on the same error as 2016 Biden will pick up Pennsylvania, narrowly scrape home in Michigan but Trump will hold Wisconsin and if he holds his other 2016 states too then Trump would be re elected 269 to 269 in the EC even with Biden winning the popular vote by more than Hillary did nationally
There is a massive problem with comparing 2016 and 2020 WI polling, the amount taken. WI 2016 had next to no polling done and so the average created is going to be horribly imprecise. In RCP average they had a grand total of 6 polls in October and then 2 in November (28 polls in the whole of 2016). This means for their average they are using only 4 polls with the latest being 4 days before the election and the oldest 11 days before the election. So 4 polls separated by 7 days and none in the final few days.
So far 2020 RCP average is using latest 6 polls and there is only 4 days between the oldest and earliest, 9 in October currently with a total of 52 polls in 2020 so far. I strongly suspect there will a number of polls in the dying days of the election.
The Pollsters know that WI is going to be in play this year and so we get a much bigger and therefore a much more likely lower error margin, as a error of 7.2 points is stupidly large more than double MI error.
If you are going to measure the same error as in 2016 to see what would happen if history repeated then it would be better to use an average of MI and PA's error to measure against.
MI 7.8-3.9 = Biden win by 3.9 PA 5.1-2.8 = Biden win by 2.3
WI 4.6-3.4 = Biden win by 1.2 (average of MI and PA) WI 4.6-3.9 = Biden win by 0.7 (same error as MI) WI 4.6-2.8 = Biden win by 1.8 (same error as PA)
All assuming the Pollsters will have same error from 2016. Trump needs them to move to him based on this.
Shame there is a weekend right after the debate as we will likely have to wait till Mon/Tues now to see if there has been any movement. So far we only have IBD which has 1 days worth since debate, but they say from that day there no evidence of a shift to trump nationally.
I wonder if the Republican boosters of Trump's chances aren't actually keeping the Biden camp on their toes right up to the tape. Could be helping Biden.
If they are shy Trump voters what difference would Biden's campaign make, they have already made up their minds to vote for Trump, they are just not telling anybody.
Read the article
Biden's campaign might not make a difference to committed Trump voters but the Trump boosters might keep the Biden GOTV operation on their toes. The relative turnout matters.
The article won't persuade people to vote for Trump. It'll give Trump supporters some comfort, and fire up Biden supporters.
Biden supporters are so fired up that literally dozens turn up to his rallies when he ventures out the basement. I read a report that half a dozen turned up to a Kamala Harris event. They were outnumbered by pro Trump hecklers apparently.
How many times do you have to be told?
The Biden campaign are purposely holding small events because you know they aren't arseholes and don't want their supporters to catch Covid-19.
We rate the claim that photos of Biden's small campaign events show a low-turnout rally as MISSING CONTEXT. Biden is hosting smaller campaign events than Trump, but it has significantly more to do with his adherence to social distancing guidelines rather than his lack of popularity.
I wonder if the Republican boosters of Trump's chances aren't actually keeping the Biden camp on their toes right up to the tape. Could be helping Biden.
If they are shy Trump voters what difference would Biden's campaign make, they have already made up their minds to vote for Trump, they are just not telling anybody.
Read the article
Biden's campaign might not make a difference to committed Trump voters but the Trump boosters might keep the Biden GOTV operation on their toes. The relative turnout matters.
The article won't persuade people to vote for Trump. It'll give Trump supporters some comfort, and fire up Biden supporters.
Biden supporters are so fired up that literally dozens turn up to his rallies when he ventures out the basement. I read a report that half a dozen turned up to a Kamala Harris event. They were outnumbered by pro Trump hecklers apparently.
How many times do you have to be told?
The Biden campaign are purposely holding small events because you know they aren't arseholes and don't want their supporters to catch Covid-19.
We rate the claim that photos of Biden's small campaign events show a low-turnout rally as MISSING CONTEXT. Biden is hosting smaller campaign events than Trump, but it has significantly more to do with his adherence to social distancing guidelines rather than his lack of popularity.
I've been really trying to get on board with the indignation being levelled at the Welsh government, but I can't help feeling like people are working themselves up into a bit too much of a froth about it. I'm fully behind the fact that there are absurdities; that is very clear to almost everyone. But at the same time, we are still in a crisis, and a few temporary privations aren't the end of the world.
The kettle one is a great example. Some time ago I was left alone for a week without a kettle. The other half, for reasons that still elude me today, took our only kettle with on a business trip to Scotland. For a week, I had to use a pan to boil water. It wasn't ideal but it wasn't the end of the world. We often hear talk about how some people lack the Blitz spirit, or that some people are too soft and wouldn't have been able to survive when things were really tough. Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?
None of this is to say I even agree with what the Welsh government is doing. I'm only talking about the force of the reaction which, well, seems to be a blend of genuine and inflated outrage.
I'm posting this in the knowledge that I'll be accused of being an apologist to fascism or something, so before you fly off the handle (replacement handles should be available on Amazon.co.uk for under £20), just take the time to check you are disagreeing with something I have actually said.
Given the apparent ineffectiveness so far of the approach in England, I do agree with what the Welsh Government is doing. I suspect that much of the criticism on here is driven by people who don't like Drakeford and are therefore jumping at the chance to avoid seeing the wood for the trees by citing spurious examples of minor inconvenience from shopping restrictions.
What Drakeford has done is to curtail shopping as an indoor leisure activity for 17 days as part of an intense lockdown of short duration. For an effective circuit breaker, I don't see how you can do anything else but minimise interactions in major stores. For non-exempt goods, the vast majority of affected potential purchases will be discretionary ones, and people will have to either put those off for a couple of weeks or order for delivery with a wait of a couple of days. Other than for something really essential, most people will wait and independent retailers will still have a chance to compete with the big chains for that custom in due course. So it protects small retailers market share as much as you can in the circumstances of a circuit breaker.
The restrictions in England will in my view last many more months without being effective and that duration makes them unbelieveably costly even though they may still destroy some businesses for good. There isn't an end date for those restrictions or even know criteria for ending them. England is in limbo until the new year, and the scale of the restrictions is slowly extending across the country. There are reports today that the Government are working up a Tier 4 as they suspect that even Tier 3 will prove ineffective.
We should all be thankful that Wales is at least trying out a contrasting strategy, piloting a much more intensive alternative which if it works will apply restrictions for a far shorter period. If it works, it will get the virus down to low levels, sufficient give otherwise overwhelmed systems a chance to contain it in Wales, so long as it doesn't spread back in from England. If the Welsh approach fails, then in a few weeks we'll know that there's not going to be much point of trying to apply it the remaining 95% of the UK population either, and only then will Drakeford deserve criticism especially if he persists with that approach regardless.
Picking holes and willing the fire break to fail helps to confirm Johnson was right all along.
I have my doubts that it is long enough to work.
Hopefully Johnson will be lucky and Tiers 2 and 3 do the business for England.
I wonder if the Republican boosters of Trump's chances aren't actually keeping the Biden camp on their toes right up to the tape. Could be helping Biden.
If they are shy Trump voters what difference would Biden's campaign make, they have already made up their minds to vote for Trump, they are just not telling anybody.
Read the article
Biden's campaign might not make a difference to committed Trump voters but the Trump boosters might keep the Biden GOTV operation on their toes. The relative turnout matters.
The article won't persuade people to vote for Trump. It'll give Trump supporters some comfort, and fire up Biden supporters.
Biden supporters are so fired up that literally dozens turn up to his rallies when he ventures out the basement. I read a report that half a dozen turned up to a Kamala Harris event. They were outnumbered by pro Trump hecklers apparently.
How many times do you have to be told?
The Biden campaign are purposely holding small events because you know they aren't arseholes and don't want their supporters to catch Covid-19.
We rate the claim that photos of Biden's small campaign events show a low-turnout rally as MISSING CONTEXT. Biden is hosting smaller campaign events than Trump, but it has significantly more to do with his adherence to social distancing guidelines rather than his lack of popularity.
Has HYUFD given his reasoning for WHY Trafalgar did so badly in 2018 Mid-terms? I mean, after all, if their method is so superior then they must have some very good base data from which they can then import their "shy Trump" adjustment.
Is he suggesting that for some reason they were under the impression that Trump was on the ballot in 2018 and made the mistake of including the "adjustment" to their sound base data?
Or is it in reality that their base date, if it exists at all, is just a crock of sh*t? Or that the base data is just what other pollsters do with 6pts added to Trump? In which case he should perhaps answer the question i have repeatedly asked him about what he thinks the impact is of the changes in methodology that most pollsters have made since 2016... Which might rather undermine the Trafalgar "model"...
They weren't that bad even in 2018, they correctly had DeSantis winning Florida unlike other pollsters they only got Georgia really badly wrong and in the article I linked to he admits that but overall they still were far better at identifying the shy Trump vote in 2016 than other pollsters were, especially in the rustbelt
As I outlined previously, IMHO the Trafalgar groups is NOT doing polling, at least as the word is commonly understood.
Instead it appears that they take keypad responses to text & robocall push-poll messages ("Would your neighbors be more or less likely to vote for Joe Biden if they knew he eats babies for breakfast?" then they massage the responses into cookie-cutter demographics (which is why same breakdowns get repeated from one survey to another.
In other words, recycling direct voter propaganda then recycling it as "polling".
The Ghost of Lee Atwater MUST be pleased as he warms himself by the eternal fires of Hell . . .
Do you have any actual evidence of these practices? Or are they just made up because the polls don;t give the result you want?
I've been really trying to get on board with the indignation being levelled at the Welsh government, but I can't help feeling like people are working themselves up into a bit too much of a froth about it. I'm fully behind the fact that there are absurdities; that is very clear to almost everyone. But at the same time, we are still in a crisis, and a few temporary privations aren't the end of the world.
The kettle one is a great example. Some time ago I was left alone for a week without a kettle. The other half, for reasons that still elude me today, took our only kettle with on a business trip to Scotland. For a week, I had to use a pan to boil water. It wasn't ideal but it wasn't the end of the world. We often hear talk about how some people lack the Blitz spirit, or that some people are too soft and wouldn't have been able to survive when things were really tough. Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?
None of this is to say I even agree with what the Welsh government is doing. I'm only talking about the force of the reaction which, well, seems to be a blend of genuine and inflated outrage.
I'm posting this in the knowledge that I'll be accused of being an apologist to fascism or something, so before you fly off the handle (replacement handles should be available on Amazon.co.uk for under £20), just take the time to check you are disagreeing with something I have actually said.
Given the apparent ineffectiveness so far of the approach in England, I do agree with what the Welsh Government is doing. I suspect that much of the criticism on here is driven by people who don't like Drakeford and are therefore jumping at the chance to avoid seeing the wood for the trees by citing spurious examples of minor inconvenience from shopping restrictions.
What Drakeford has done is to curtail shopping as an indoor leisure activity for 17 days as part of an intense lockdown of short duration. For an effective circuit breaker, I don't see how you can do anything else but minimise interactions in major stores. For non-exempt goods, the vast majority of affected potential purchases will be discretionary ones, and people will have to either put those off for a couple of weeks or order for delivery with a wait of a couple of days. Other than for something really essential, most people will wait and independent retailers will still have a chance to compete with the big chains for that custom in due course. So it protects small retailers market share as much as you can in the circumstances of a circuit breaker.
The restrictions in England will in my view last many more months without being effective and that duration makes them unbelieveably costly even though they may still destroy some businesses for good. There isn't an end date for those restrictions or even know criteria for ending them. England is in limbo until the new year, and the scale of the restrictions is slowly extending across the country. There are reports today that the Government are working up a Tier 4 as they suspect that even Tier 3 will prove ineffective.
We should all be thankful that Wales is at least trying out a contrasting strategy, piloting a much more intensive alternative which if it works will apply restrictions for a far shorter period. If it works, it will get the virus down to low levels, sufficient give otherwise overwhelmed systems a chance to contain it in Wales, so long as it doesn't spread back in from England. If the Welsh approach fails, then in a few weeks we'll know that there's not going to be much point of trying to apply it the remaining 95% of the UK population either, and only then will Drakeford deserve criticism especially if he persists with that approach regardless.
Picking holes and willing the fire break to fail helps to confirm Johnson was right all along.
I have my doubts that it is long enough to work.
Hopefully Johnson will be lucky and Tiers 2 and 3 do the business for England.
I hope so too re the latter.
But when one sees Unionists in Scotland advocating the English rather than Scottish mobile phone app as a point of British nationalist principle, and doing so IN SCOTLAND [rdit], one does wonder what their priorities are.
I've been really trying to get on board with the indignation being levelled at the Welsh government, but I can't help feeling like people are working themselves up into a bit too much of a froth about it. I'm fully behind the fact that there are absurdities; that is very clear to almost everyone. But at the same time, we are still in a crisis, and a few temporary privations aren't the end of the world.
The kettle one is a great example. Some time ago I was left alone for a week without a kettle. The other half, for reasons that still elude me today, took our only kettle with on a business trip to Scotland. For a week, I had to use a pan to boil water. It wasn't ideal but it wasn't the end of the world. We often hear talk about how some people lack the Blitz spirit, or that some people are too soft and wouldn't have been able to survive when things were really tough. Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?
None of this is to say I even agree with what the Welsh government is doing. I'm only talking about the force of the reaction which, well, seems to be a blend of genuine and inflated outrage.
I'm posting this in the knowledge that I'll be accused of being an apologist to fascism or something, so before you fly off the handle (replacement handles should be available on Amazon.co.uk for under £20), just take the time to check you are disagreeing with something I have actually said.
Given the apparent ineffectiveness so far of the approach in England, I do agree with what the Welsh Government is doing. I suspect that much of the criticism on here is driven by people who don't like Drakeford and are therefore jumping at the chance to avoid seeing the wood for the trees by citing spurious examples of minor inconvenience from shopping restrictions.
What Drakeford has done is to curtail shopping as an indoor leisure activity for 17 days as part of an intense lockdown of short duration. For an effective circuit breaker, I don't see how you can do anything else but minimise interactions in major stores. For non-exempt goods, the vast majority of affected potential purchases will be discretionary ones, and people will have to either put those off for a couple of weeks or order for delivery with a wait of a couple of days. Other than for something really essential, most people will wait and independent retailers will still have a chance to compete with the big chains for that custom in due course. So it protects small retailers market share as much as you can in the circumstances of a circuit breaker.
The restrictions in England will in my view last many more months without being effective and that duration makes them unbelieveably costly even though they may still destroy some businesses for good. There isn't an end date for those restrictions or even know criteria for ending them. England is in limbo until the new year, and the scale of the restrictions is slowly extending across the country. There are reports today that the Government are working up a Tier 4 as they suspect that even Tier 3 will prove ineffective.
We should all be thankful that Wales is at least trying out a contrasting strategy, piloting a much more intensive alternative which if it works will apply restrictions for a far shorter period. If it works, it will get the virus down to low levels, sufficient give otherwise overwhelmed systems a chance to contain it in Wales, so long as it doesn't spread back in from England. If the Welsh approach fails, then in a few weeks we'll know that there's not going to be much point of trying to apply it the remaining 95% of the UK population either, and only then will Drakeford deserve criticism especially if he persists with that approach regardless.
Picking holes and willing the fire break to fail helps to confirm Johnson was right all along.
I have my doubts that it is long enough to work.
Hopefully Johnson will be lucky and Tiers 2 and 3 do the business for England.
Drakeford’s lockdown looks to me to be precisely wrong. So strict it will throttle the Welsh economy for five years, but as it effectively only lasts a week will have no significant impact on the virus.
A strict 2-3 week lockdown with full on closure might work on the virus, but not ten days. (Yes, I know he says a fortnight, but the virus is on the rampage in schools, so if they reopen it isn’t a lockdown.)
I've been really trying to get on board with the indignation being levelled at the Welsh government, but I can't help feeling like people are working themselves up into a bit too much of a froth about it. I'm fully behind the fact that there are absurdities; that is very clear to almost everyone. But at the same time, we are still in a crisis, and a few temporary privations aren't the end of the world.
The kettle one is a great example. Some time ago I was left alone for a week without a kettle. The other half, for reasons that still elude me today, took our only kettle with on a business trip to Scotland. For a week, I had to use a pan to boil water. It wasn't ideal but it wasn't the end of the world. We often hear talk about how some people lack the Blitz spirit, or that some people are too soft and wouldn't have been able to survive when things were really tough. Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?
None of this is to say I even agree with what the Welsh government is doing. I'm only talking about the force of the reaction which, well, seems to be a blend of genuine and inflated outrage.
I'm posting this in the knowledge that I'll be accused of being an apologist to fascism or something, so before you fly off the handle (replacement handles should be available on Amazon.co.uk for under £20), just take the time to check you are disagreeing with something I have actually said.
Given the apparent ineffectiveness so far of the approach in England, I do agree with what the Welsh Government is doing. I suspect that much of the criticism on here is driven by people who don't like Drakeford and are therefore jumping at the chance to avoid seeing the wood for the trees by citing spurious examples of minor inconvenience from shopping restrictions.
What Drakeford has done is to curtail shopping as an indoor leisure activity for 17 days as part of an intense lockdown of short duration. For an effective circuit breaker, I don't see how you can do anything else but minimise interactions in major stores. For non-exempt goods, the vast majority of affected potential purchases will be discretionary ones, and people will have to either put those off for a couple of weeks or order for delivery with a wait of a couple of days. Other than for something really essential, most people will wait and independent retailers will still have a chance to compete with the big chains for that custom in due course. So it protects small retailers market share as much as you can in the circumstances of a circuit breaker.
The restrictions in England will in my view last many more months without being effective and that duration makes them unbelieveably costly even though they may still destroy some businesses for good. There isn't an end date for those restrictions or even know criteria for ending them. England is in limbo until the new year, and the scale of the restrictions is slowly extending across the country. There are reports today that the Government are working up a Tier 4 as they suspect that even Tier 3 will prove ineffective.
We should all be thankful that Wales is at least trying out a contrasting strategy, piloting a much more intensive alternative which if it works will apply restrictions for a far shorter period. If it works, it will get the virus down to low levels, sufficient give otherwise overwhelmed systems a chance to contain it in Wales, so long as it doesn't spread back in from England. If the Welsh approach fails, then in a few weeks we'll know that there's not going to be much point of trying to apply it the remaining 95% of the UK population either, and only then will Drakeford deserve criticism especially if he persists with that approach regardless.
You should live here and listen to the anger
English police stopping cars in England and reporting them to Wales police is going down like a lead balloon
And as for Facebook and social media the photographs of the insides of Supermarkets is causing uproar, very uncomplimentary jokes about Drakeford, and of course the supermarket customers are witnessing the stupidity of it for themselves
Has HYUFD given his reasoning for WHY Trafalgar did so badly in 2018 Mid-terms? I mean, after all, if their method is so superior then they must have some very good base data from which they can then import their "shy Trump" adjustment.
Is he suggesting that for some reason they were under the impression that Trump was on the ballot in 2018 and made the mistake of including the "adjustment" to their sound base data?
Or is it in reality that their base date, if it exists at all, is just a crock of sh*t? Or that the base data is just what other pollsters do with 6pts added to Trump? In which case he should perhaps answer the question i have repeatedly asked him about what he thinks the impact is of the changes in methodology that most pollsters have made since 2016... Which might rather undermine the Trafalgar "model"...
They weren't that bad even in 2018, they correctly had DeSantis winning Florida unlike other pollsters they only got Georgia really badly wrong and in the article I linked to he admits that but overall they still were far better at identifying the shy Trump vote in 2016 than other pollsters were, especially in the rustbelt
As I outlined previously, IMHO the Trafalgar groups is NOT doing polling, at least as the word is commonly understood.
Instead it appears that they take keypad responses to text & robocall push-poll messages ("Would your neighbors be more or less likely to vote for Joe Biden if they knew he eats babies for breakfast?" then they massage the responses into cookie-cutter demographics (which is why same breakdowns get repeated from one survey to another.
In other words, recycling direct voter propaganda then recycling it as "polling".
The Ghost of Lee Atwater MUST be pleased as he warms himself by the eternal fires of Hell . . .
Do you have any actual evidence of these practices? Or are they just made up because the polls don;t give the result you want?
Trafalgar give demographic breadkowns to .1%
.1% repesents a signle person in a 1000 person poll.
Across their Michigan polls from August, September and October their Demographic breakdowns are identical to the tenth of a percent.
So either they are not doing any polling as the chance of that happening is infinitesimally small or they are re-weighting their response to a precise set of 'expected' numbers, which is spectacularly inflexible.
Given the call they had with @rcs1000 they claimed did not do post poll reweighting of their responses, so that eliminates option 2. So we have only option 1, they are not doing polling.
Has HYUFD given his reasoning for WHY Trafalgar did so badly in 2018 Mid-terms? I mean, after all, if their method is so superior then they must have some very good base data from which they can then import their "shy Trump" adjustment.
Is he suggesting that for some reason they were under the impression that Trump was on the ballot in 2018 and made the mistake of including the "adjustment" to their sound base data?
Or is it in reality that their base date, if it exists at all, is just a crock of sh*t? Or that the base data is just what other pollsters do with 6pts added to Trump? In which case he should perhaps answer the question i have repeatedly asked him about what he thinks the impact is of the changes in methodology that most pollsters have made since 2016... Which might rather undermine the Trafalgar "model"...
They weren't that bad even in 2018, they correctly had DeSantis winning Florida unlike other pollsters they only got Georgia really badly wrong and in the article I linked to he admits that but overall they still were far better at identifying the shy Trump vote in 2016 than other pollsters were, especially in the rustbelt
In every poll that I have seen that has asked Americans how they think their neighbours are voting, Trump has a huge lead.
Indicative of a shy Trump factor? has to be, for me.
I don't follow that. If Americans think their neighbours are voting Trump, it doesn't indicate that their neighbours are shy. Quite the opposite.
Massive difference between your neighbour and a pollster. Ask the honest pollsters how easy it is to get responses from some big Trump supporting rural areas in swing states.
Some firms don;t even bother. They just poll the liberal cities. That's why I reckon they are a country mile out.
So the pollsters who found that Americans thought their neighbours were voting Trump were polling Americans in liberal cities - and asking about their neighbours in rural areas? That could explain it.
Comments
Luckily two of the bottles were champagne which kept me going for a couple of days while I pondered. None of the others were screw tops. On YouTube I saw a video of putting a bottle in the heel of your shoe and vigourously banging the wall with it.
https://youtu.be/pELPxMOKtew?t=1
Another video showed the same trick except the bottle broke cutting the person's arm so I abandoned that idea.
I tried putting a screw in the cork and then trapping the screw in the hinge jamb of a door. Opened the bottle but wrecked the hinge.
I then used a claw hammer to lever the screw and cork out. Success. Hard work but worth it.
At the end of the holiday I found the corkscrew out of sight on the top shelf of the liquor cupboard where I had put it out of reach of the grandkids on the previous holiday.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/522562-ivanka-trump-jared-kushers-lawyer-threatens-to-sue-lincoln-project
It is almost as if the only way through the lockdown for the Welsh is buying and consuming alcohol, which remains allowable since it’s essential.
For some people that is fairness.
I think, as the Sleeping Bard said yesterday the Welsh Conservatives accidentally set an elephant trap that Drakeford fell into. It has certainly given PB Tories something to celebrate.
I can understand why it was done, the idea being to stop millions of shoppers browsing the first floor of Asda Bridgend, and thereby not disadvantaging Arthur John's hardware store in Cowbridge which is closed under the restrictions.
It was probably a sledge hammer to crack a nut, and a sledge hammer that could have been delivered within 24 hours by Amazon Prime, which granted, defeats the levelling up notion.
A schoolboy error from Drakeford and Gething, and one I won't be losing sleep over. I am sure anything I need from Arthur John can wait two weeks, and I hate the idea of putting coins into Tesco's pockets, pandemic or otherwise.
Still it has raised the pre Christmas cheer in the ranks of the otherwise gloomy PB Tories, so it is not all bad.
https://www.gutenberg.org/
63,460 free books on there. I reckon you can probably find something worthwhile and good that you haven't read before.
Out of those, South Carolina looks the best?
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_biden-6849.html
RCP Michigan final 2016 poll average Clinton +3.6%, now Biden +7.8%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton-5533.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_biden-6761.html
RCP Pennsylvania final 2016 poll average Clinton +2.1%, now Biden +5.1%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html
So on the same error as 2016 Biden will pick up Pennsylvania, narrowly scrape home in Michigan but Trump will hold Wisconsin and if he holds his other 2016 states too then Trump would be re elected 269 to 269 in the EC even with Biden winning the popular vote by more than Hillary did nationally
I was struck the other day by the whining about 5 tiers in Scotland - just on e day after many people here had whined about England haviung too few and needing to add more. Obvs the real crime is not doing the same as the Imperial Masters in London.
https://www.gutenberg.org/files/8425/8425-h/8425-h.htm is interesting - a hagiography of Caesar, but one that also explains what drove him and his opposition better than many, more modern works.
http://www.gutenberg.org/files/16914/16914-h/16914-h.htm is another one - life of Nelson that gives a lot of the detail that is often missed by the more modern biographies.
For example it explains why he thought he was keen on making his will etc before Trafalgar - nothing to do with superstition. He simply thought that the strategic situation would be 2-1 against him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTHKWs1mNCw
https://thehill.com/homenews/media/522567-lou-dobbs-goes-after-lindsey-graham-i-dont-know-why-anyone-would-vote-for-him?utm_source=thehill&utm_medium=widgets&utm_campaign=es_recommended_content
And an open invitation to bribe EC delegates.
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2020/10/21/what-happens-if-trump-and-biden-tie-in-the-electoral-college/
You don't give up. A hundred lines for you "Trafalgar are not a polling organisation, if Robert Cahaly calls it correctly for Trump, it was a good guess".
Personally think the Shy Trumpskyites are LESS of a factor than the Shy Kanye vote.
BUT we shall see, won't we?
IF you are correct, you'll get my nomination for PBer of the Year. PLUS an autographed picture of . . . wait for it . . . Jared Kushner!
Is he suggesting that for some reason they were under the impression that Trump was on the ballot in 2018 and made the mistake of including the "adjustment" to their sound base data?
Or is it in reality that their base date, if it exists at all, is just a crock of sh*t? Or that the base data is just what other pollsters do with 6pts added to Trump? In which case he should perhaps answer the question i have repeatedly asked him about what he thinks the impact is of the changes in methodology that most pollsters have made since 2016... Which might rather undermine the Trafalgar "model"...
£700 is my limit so far. I was tempted to lay Hillary recently when she came up again as next President - lay £2 at 1000/1. Not worth the hassle moving the funds to win £2.
I wonder if the Republican boosters of Trump's chances aren't actually keeping the Biden camp on their toes right up to the tape. Could be helping Biden.
BUT you are wrong about the "old House" being in office "until inauguration day".
Note that the new Congress takes office January 3, 2021; whereas presidential term ends (and new one begins) on January 20, 2021.
Indicative of a shy Trump factor? has to be, for me.
Certainly the democrats *seemed* fired up - some evidence of higher voting levels among those who aren't normally likely to vote.
Much less evidence on the Trump side of that - certainly there are hard core EverTrumpers... but what about the rest of the Republican vote?
Read the article
Instead it appears that they take keypad responses to text & robocall push-poll messages ("Would your neighbors be more or less likely to vote for Joe Biden if they knew he eats babies for breakfast?" then they massage the responses into cookie-cutter demographics (which is why same breakdowns get repeated from one survey to another.
In other words, recycling direct voter propaganda then recycling it as "polling".
The Ghost of Lee Atwater MUST be pleased as he warms himself by the eternal fires of Hell . . .
https://www.investors.com/news/trump-vs-biden-poll-race-tightens-like-2016-ibd-tipp-2020-presidential-poll/
The article won't persuade people to vote for Trump. It'll give Trump supporters some comfort, and fire up Biden supporters.
https://twitter.com/sarah_turnnidge/status/1319952578688540672
What Drakeford has done is to curtail shopping as an indoor leisure activity for 17 days as part of an intense lockdown of short duration. For an effective circuit breaker, I don't see how you can do anything else but minimise interactions in major stores. For non-exempt goods, the vast majority of affected potential purchases will be discretionary ones, and people will have to either put those off for a couple of weeks or order for delivery with a wait of a couple of days. Other than for something really essential, most people will wait and independent retailers will still have a chance to compete with the big chains for that custom in due course. So it protects small retailers market share as much as you can in the circumstances of a circuit breaker.
The restrictions in England will in my view last many more months without being effective and that duration makes them unbelieveably costly even though they may still destroy some businesses for good. There isn't an end date for those restrictions or even know criteria for ending them. England is in limbo until the new year, and the scale of the restrictions is slowly extending across the country. There are reports today that the Government are working up a Tier 4 as they suspect that even Tier 3 will prove ineffective.
We should all be thankful that Wales is at least trying out a contrasting strategy, piloting a much more intensive alternative which if it works will apply restrictions for a far shorter period. If it works, it will get the virus down to low levels, sufficient give otherwise overwhelmed systems a chance to contain it in Wales, so long as it doesn't spread back in from England. If the Welsh approach fails, then in a few weeks we'll know that there's not going to be much point of trying to apply it the remaining 95% of the UK population either, and only then will Drakeford deserve criticism especially if he persists with that approach regardless.
Some firms don;t even bother. They just poll the liberal cities. That's why I reckon they are a country mile out.
The Biden campaign are purposely holding small events because you know they aren't arseholes and don't want their supporters to catch Covid-19.
We rate the claim that photos of Biden's small campaign events show a low-turnout rally as MISSING CONTEXT. Biden is hosting smaller campaign events than Trump, but it has significantly more to do with his adherence to social distancing guidelines rather than his lack of popularity.
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/09/22/fact-check-joe-biden-events-smaller-because-covid-19/5780898002/
But you keep pushing your bullshit.
So far 2020 RCP average is using latest 6 polls and there is only 4 days between the oldest and earliest, 9 in October currently with a total of 52 polls in 2020 so far. I strongly suspect there will a number of polls in the dying days of the election.
The Pollsters know that WI is going to be in play this year and so we get a much bigger and therefore a much more likely lower error margin, as a error of 7.2 points is stupidly large more than double MI error.
If you are going to measure the same error as in 2016 to see what would happen if history repeated then it would be better to use an average of MI and PA's error to measure against.
MI 7.8-3.9 = Biden win by 3.9
PA 5.1-2.8 = Biden win by 2.3
WI 4.6-3.4 = Biden win by 1.2 (average of MI and PA)
WI 4.6-3.9 = Biden win by 0.7 (same error as MI)
WI 4.6-2.8 = Biden win by 1.8 (same error as PA)
All assuming the Pollsters will have same error from 2016. Trump needs them to move to him based on this.
Shame there is a weekend right after the debate as we will likely have to wait till Mon/Tues now to see if there has been any movement. So far we only have IBD which has 1 days worth since debate, but they say from that day there no evidence of a shift to trump nationally.
I have my doubts that it is long enough to work.
Hopefully Johnson will be lucky and Tiers 2 and 3 do the business for England.
I remember when you defended coked up racists, you haven't changed a bit.
But when one sees Unionists in Scotland advocating the English rather than Scottish mobile phone app as a point of British nationalist principle, and doing so IN SCOTLAND [rdit], one does wonder what their priorities are.
A strict 2-3 week lockdown with full on closure might work on the virus, but not ten days. (Yes, I know he says a fortnight, but the virus is on the rampage in schools, so if they reopen it isn’t a lockdown.)
English police stopping cars in England and reporting them to Wales police is going down like a lead balloon
And as for Facebook and social media the photographs of the insides of Supermarkets is causing uproar, very uncomplimentary jokes about Drakeford, and of course the supermarket customers are witnessing the stupidity of it for themselves
.1% repesents a signle person in a 1000 person poll.
Across their Michigan polls from August, September and October their Demographic breakdowns are identical to the tenth of a percent.
So either they are not doing any polling as the chance of that happening is infinitesimally small or they are re-weighting their response to a precise set of 'expected' numbers, which is spectacularly inflexible.
Given the call they had with @rcs1000 they claimed did not do post poll reweighting of their responses, so that eliminates option 2. So we have only option 1, they are not doing polling.