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The polling gets tighter and tighter in Texas yet on Betfair Biden is still a 27% chance – political
The polling gets tighter and tighter in Texas yet on Betfair Biden is still a 27% chance – politicalbetting.com
Above is the latest chart from FiveThirtyEight of the polling trend in Texas – the state with 38 ECVs which of it itself would be enough to give Biden the Presidency.
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So Biden wins the popular vote by 7% and Trump wins the electoral college.
A legal duty to provide Online learning one day.
But not the equipment, which was promised, to facilitate it the next.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/oct/24/englands-schools-to-receive-fewer-laptops-for-distance-learning
THE EYES OF TEXAS
John Sinclair
The Eyes of Texas are upon you,
All the livelong day.
The Eyes of Texas are upon you,
You cannot get away
Do not think you can escape them
At night or early in the morn
The Eyes of Texas are upon you
Til Gabriel blows his horn
Spoiler: depressingly plausible.
DEEP IN THE HEART OF TEXAS
June Hersey & Don Swander
The stars at night are big and bright (clap, clap, clap, clap)
Deep in the heart of Texas!
The prairie sky is wide and high (clap, clap, clap, clap)
Deep in the heart of Texas!
The sage in bloom is like perfume (clap, clap, clap, clap)
Deep in the heart of Texas!
Reminds me of the one I love (clap, clap, clap, clap)
Deep in the heart of Texas!
The coyotes wail along the trail (clap, clap, clap, clap)
Deep in the heart of Texas!
The rabbits rush around the brush (clap, clap, clap, clap)
Deep in the heart of Texas!
The cowboys cry Ki Yippee Yi (clap, clap, clap, clap)
Deep in the heart of Texas!
The dawgies bawl and bawl and bawl (clap, clap, clap, clap)
Deep in the heart of Texas!
IMHO best version of this classic was by Dale Evans and the Muppets:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8H_pzi-j_cs
The US system has the same fault as ours, in that only a handful of areas are going to swing the result, and campaigning or voting anywhere else is a waste of time.
First, the intervention of the English police (WTF) arresting Welsh people in Gloucestershire or the Forest of Dean is predictably generating huge anger in Wales.
And second, the more punitive and costly are Drakeford's lockdowns, the more English taxpayers will baulk at picking up the bills. The comments from some English journalists on the Welsh Government are beginning to resemble the vituperation normally reserved for the Scottish Government.
Devolution never killed anything stone-dead, it was always going to tear us apart.
But Drakeford ... WTF .... banning the sale of books .... books of all things (as posted here yesterday by williamglenn).
I have never heard of anything so stupid. Books are a great way to pass the time in lockdown, but we can only get them from dependable Jeff Bezos.
I wonder if, as his final act as a Plaid Cymru double agent, Drakeford could take down Welsh Labour.
Also, many people at the end of the day vote selfishly for their own interests. Hearing that the potential president in a single simple soundbitable clip say oil is going* will have far more effect on wavering voters in Texas.
* You won't get the full context or his claim to more than replace all the jobs with renewables.
- Net immigration is seen as an un-alloyed good.
- Part of the *stated* purpose of mass immigration was to hold wages down.
- It has succeeded in that.
- The wages that were held down the most, were those at the bottom.
- Because of the structure of skills shortages, upper middle class saw immigration without massive wage suppression.
- So, if you are sitting in alt-bank finance startup in London, you are on a great wage and chatting with your new mates from every part of the globe. Living the multicultural dream....
- The religion of infrastructure-bad - apart from trains. Sometimes. Houses are EVUL.
- The world of sub-minimum wage jobs, with people living 4 to a room in every room in a property (bunk beds)*, is round the corner, but 200 million miles from alt-bank-guy above.
*I went to look at a house in a nice area yesterday. The house was in exactly that style of multiple occupation. 12 beds in a nominally 4 bed house. Had a nice chat with the people living there - once they realised I wasn't going to turn them in to the immigration services.
AND even in states that are NOT competitive for the race to the White House, there are often VERY hot races for US Senate, US House, Governor and other statewide office, state legislatures and local governments. PLUS campaigns for & against ballot measures, ranging from the Mississippi state flag referendum to the Seattle bus sales tax.
This later issue has already attracted a GREAT DEAL of interest from savvy PBers!
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1319756986691497984?s=20
Yup having slept I’m more flabbergasted and angrier than yesterday. We can buy tins but not tin openers ffs! Buying a duvet is illegal if you do it down the local high st, where you’d be giving money to support local jobs. Buy a duvet from Jeff Bezos - yup fine, no problem.
This will have zero effect on the virus, and just weaken the economy further.
That might change and we should see any movement on Monday/Tuesday as undecideds start to break and movement from the final debate. If there is no to little change then either Trump is in real trouble or the polls are even further out in those states than last time.
If those 3 stay steady, Biden could if he wanted do a late push in TX, GA, FL, NC, AZ, IA, OH forcing Trump to defend. If they do move Biden will need to try and halt that movement. With NC and AZ still showing some if narrow down air Biden has the advantage as of today, Trump routes to victory remain few and needs a number of things to fall his way.
Right now only the shadow of 2016 is making me nervous.
Johnson's plans appear ruined. He'd wanted to use his personal enthusiasm for Brexit to instil a fresh sense of optimism that the UK's future was brighter outside the European Union. Free from the Brussels bureaucracy, Johnson's government vowed to address the UK's socio-economic imbalance that in some sense led to Brexit by "leveling up" deprived areas. He would also seek to strengthen the bond between the four nations of the UK, which had been stretched to near-breaking point amid the bitterness following the 2016 referendum. In short, the man who led the campaign that caused so much division was on a charm offensive to heal the country.
However, 10 months on, his government is short on resources and losing good will. Johnson's opponents point to numerous errors made early in the pandemic over testing and confusing messaging over lockdowns, the highest death count in Europe and worst recession of any major economy as evidence of his failures. Worse, members of his own party fear that his lack of attention to detail and instinct for combative politics is causing a shift in the PM's public perception: From affable optimist to incompetent bully who is hopelessly out of his depth. And they worry what long-term damage this might do both to Johnson's personal mission and the brand of the Conservative party writ large.
“ When you look at Boris's personal brand you see dramatic drop-offs in people who think he is likeable and trustworthy since the start of the pandemic. He now lags behind Keir Starmer (leader of the opposition Labour party) on almost all of those metrics," says Chris Curtis, Political Research Manager at pollster YouGov. This dip in trust is particularly toxic for Johnson when you combine it with the reputation Conservatives have in parts of the country that historically vote Labour and Johnson was able to pick up seats in last December's election -- the so-called Red Wall.
And as the crisis continues, many of his previous supporters are increasingly skeptical that Boris Johnson was ever really the man to unite a country divided by political chaos for which he was largely responsible.
However, think the X-factor here is NOT keen-ness per se, but rather demographic creep, as Texas voting population becomes more diverse AND more urban/surburban. AND as the 'burbs have moved from being Republican heartlands to the Lone Star equivalent of the Red Wall in England.
These trends, along with anti-Trumpsky sentiment, are what may see Democrats make major gains in the Texas congressional delegation AND the state legislature, where they may well win control of the State House of Reps for the first time in a generation.
If he succeeds in that, he will rank ahead of David Lloyd George as the most formidable Welsh politician of all time.
Hopefully your local bookshop is already online on various platforms. Many small independent book shops are...
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html says that 39.4% of 2016 turnout has already voted...
71.2% in Texas!
Still depressingly plausible though.
It’s not as though the massive growth in renewables is some distant chimera in Texas; it’s been happening for a while.
And where is Tesla building its newest factory ?
BUT it could actually end up having more impact, in its crude (pun intended) formulation in Pennsylvania. Where fracking is seen by many in rust belt as a path to economic improvement if not restored properity.
For example, in places like Beaver County in western PA, where the steel industry died a hard death decades ago, and where a big new fracking complex is being built at Monaca, PA (pronounced "Mon-ACK-ah"). It will provide only a fraction of the jobs that the steel mill did - but something is better than nothing.
Personally think Biden will end up winning the Keystone State (and losing the Lone Star State) but certainly his malapropism did NOT help his cause in these important battlegrounds.
He’s lucky that the gaffe happened after over 50 million have already voted. In better news for him the latest IBDD tracker poll shows him increasing his lead , the previous day it was 49.8 v 45.2, today 50.7 v 44.3 .
IF so, who was the USA Grand Prix of 2005? Brad Pitt?
*A surprising amount of oil work involves electrical work.
What about enforcement? Is that going to be easy?
My friends in the South tell me that management of pubs and clubs has been very patchy across the old industrial regions. Is Mark going to be able to enforce his will or is there going to be widespread flouting?
We need WelshOwl to report on the volume of vomit and other drunkards’ debris in Cardiff to see how things are going.
As the Yanks say, y'all worryin' about nuthin'!
Interestingly unless I've cocked something up totalling up 538's state forecasts I get Biden on a full percentage point less than their national forecast.
"Would have been picked up" my rosy red ass! Hopefully they got the distinct feeling, Nick, that your personally bull-shit detector was beeping up a storm in THEIR direction.
Now I simply fail to see how it makes any meaningful difference to R if I buy a tin opener two aisles down from peas if I’m in the shop anyway buying peas. However, Drakeford apparently deems that the local bookshop or hardware store or whatever is a risk to R, and that to “not disadvantage” them the supermarket can’t sell “non essential” stuff either.
So if I want a book or a tin opener, despite my desire, usual practice, and ability to buy and a willingness for people to supply me in a brief socially distanced transaction that has sod all effect on R, the Govt here has forced me to send the money, and profits of the transaction out of the local area and indeed out of Wales.
I’m ok, Jeff Bezos and other distant folk online are ok, my local community is poorer both literally and figuratively.
Thanks Welsh Govt.
Anyway, seeing as how Seattle almost always LOVES a tax, reckon that odds of failure are somewhat less than Biden winning Mississippi.
Far right racists are donating to Trump's campaign.
https://twitter.com/HuffPostPol/status/1319998196496695296
Feeling so strong about this -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89fgNaZRKGc
The Carolyn Harris whose evidence in the malevolent prosecution of her aide was disbelieved by the jury, leading to the acquittal of her aide (Jenny Clarke). The Carolyn Harris who was accused of homophobic bullying. That Carolyn Harris.
She actually said, on prime time radio, that the policy was to shut the big shops so that it would helps save the little shops, but people could go online.
I think it is good for English Labour supporters to actually see the fucking abysmal standard of Labour MPs we have to put up with in Wales. And they're better than the Labour AMs, who make up the Welsh Government.
If you were worried about the damage that supermarkets do to local shops, then the politicians would have done better to put greater restrictions on them in normal times. Not when they are the only place that people can get stuff that they need NOW.
However, I’m pleased to report that most ( like all!) the establishments I walk by these days are somewhat more staid and lacking in semi digested carrots on nearby tarmac.
I also have not been to the city centre in 2020!
I'm fully behind the fact that there are absurdities; that is very clear to almost everyone. But at the same time, we are still in a crisis, and a few temporary privations aren't the end of the world.
The kettle one is a great example. Some time ago I was left alone for a week without a kettle. The other half, for reasons that still elude me today, took our only kettle with on a business trip to Scotland. For a week, I had to use a pan to boil water. It wasn't ideal but it wasn't the end of the world. We often hear talk about how some people lack the Blitz spirit, or that some people are too soft and wouldn't have been able to survive when things were really tough. Well, here's the moment. If you're unlucky enough to have your kettle break today, and you absolutely can't or won't get one through an online retailer, will the walls of your mind come tumbling down?
None of this is to say I even agree with what the Welsh government is doing. I'm only talking about the force of the reaction which, well, seems to be a blend of genuine and inflated outrage.
I'm posting this in the knowledge that I'll be accused of being an apologist to fascism or something, so before you fly off the handle (replacement handles should be available on Amazon.co.uk for under £20), just take the time to check you are disagreeing with something I have actually said.
(disclaimer: I'm hoping nobody was hurt)
I really really truly hope I lose this bet. Fingers crossed.
Mainly because it means Trump has lost big time.
But also because I much more make up the loss on my other state bets and overall.
But frankly there are all sorts of things that have been deemed "non-essential" that actually people do on occasion need quite urgently. Often due to bad planning. Waiting 2-3 days for it to come through on line isn't even a solution to this. Obviously often they don't REALLY need it. But bear in mind that the official line from the Welsh Govt appears to be that these particular restrictions (supermarkets and non-essential supplies) are not being primarily done for public health purposes. If they are not there for public health purposes then the arguments for them become easily challengeable. Without people worrying about being shouted down by the "BUT IT WILL SAVE LIVES" brigade.
However, whilst I do accept we are in a crisis and accept that some temporary privations are not the end of the world - we have, as a nation, already accepted quite a few more in that respect that I would have thought would be accepted, at least so quiescently - I don't think that has a major bearing on reducing criticism of the welsh policy as currently constituted, as the acceptance of privations is usually set against the purported benefits, in essence what are people being asked to suffer - in however big or small a way - for?
And if the reason for that privation seems to be unjustified, ineffective, or outright beyond the scope of the written law, then the principle of the policy will attract a lot more derision that what may be even harsher policies which have clearer benefits. That the policy will have severe economic effects seems a given, but how it actually achieves additional health benefits than strong guidance not to make unnecessary trips, but if you are there you can buy what is on the shelves, is unclear.
There is no crisis where I live. I live in a remote town where there is no COVID, and the nearest death is about 30 miles away.
I am locked down and not allowed to travel more than a few miles from my house. (I was due to travel to England for work on Nov 1st. I won't be able to do that now).
Not sure that Biden will take the state, but his chances are much better than the odds suggest.
(And my much more substantial hedge is in the Trump EV markets on Betfair exchange.)
But nonetheless, I will (it seems) run the risk of being stopped by the English police after the border and have to explain and justify my journey and presumably produce evidence that it is "essential".
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/24/trump-election-paranoia-431330
Meanwhile, the Democrats are determined, in the words of Sen. Jon Tester, to “Run through the f---ing tape.”