Conclusion. They are fully aware that Tier 3 will be lengthy and very extensive across most of the urban areas of the country. And they aren't prepared to compensate for it. Bitter times ahead. Goodwill of early lockdown brutally squandered by a government determined to pick a fight with anyone and everyone who isn't a donor, chum or core Brexit voter. They simply don't understand or even like anyone not like them.
Tier 3 is national lockdown by stealth but with none of the financial support.
It’s exactly the sort of dishonesty you expect from a government led by a liar, wh has appointed so many liars to his Cabinet.
If it continues the economic pain will be awful.
Yep. I can't see how we avoid an economic depression now. The reckoning on all this is going to be way beyond anything any of us have seen in our lifetimes.
Cities are being locked down where the case rate is falling. If that's the scientific "advice" then the whole UK will be locked down apart from the Scilly Isles by end of October.
People in Powys and Ceredigion already are locked up, sorry 'down'. They're probably less densely-populated than the Scillies.
People in Argentina have been locked up for ~200 days. Good, surely?
I'm not so sure. It's had 589 deaths per million. Sounds about the same as Sweden.
In other words, this is doing us very little good, at a cost of £100s of billions.
I don't think that Johnson has quite appreciated that this isn't just about Manchester. It's about the Conservatives being seen to be willing to stuff the North in general in its hour of need, and indeed anywhere north of Watford Gap. People in Liverpool and Lancashire won't be castigating Burnham for seeking a slightly better settlement than the paltry one their leaders got. No, they'll be cheering Burnham on. As are those in the North-East and Yorkshire who know they're next in the firing line, followed by the Midlands. This is a government that thinks nothing of throwing billions in lucrative contracts the way of any of the usual outsourcing suspects lining up to profit from coronavirus, in return for services that repeatedly fail to live up to their billing, yet which draws the line at settling for just a paltry £5m extra for Greater Manchester. Desperate people and businesses left to go hang. All the effort that went into winning seats in the Red Wall and promoting the fiction of Levelling Up is being undone before our eyes because Sunak can't find £5m.
We're due an Opinium poll this weekend.
I don't see this causing a swing to Labour myself.
I don't think that Johnson has quite appreciated that this isn't just about Manchester. It's about the Conservatives being seen to be willing to stuff the North in general in its hour of need, and indeed anywhere north of Watford Gap. People in Liverpool and Lancashire won't be castigating Burnham for seeking a slightly better settlement than the paltry one their leaders got. No, they'll be cheering Burnham on. As are those in the North-East and Yorkshire who know they're next in the firing line, followed by the Midlands. This is a government that thinks nothing of throwing billions in lucrative contracts the way of any of the usual outsourcing suspects lining up to profit from coronavirus, in return for services that repeatedly fail to live up to their billing, yet which draws the line at settling for just a paltry £5m extra for Greater Manchester. Desperate people and businesses left to go hang. All the effort that went into winning seats in the Red Wall and promoting the fiction of Levelling Up is being undone before our eyes because Sunak can't find £5m.
We're due an Opinium poll this weekend.
I don't see this causing a swing to Labour myself.
At least not in the short term
Agreed, but these North Westerners have long memories. When was the last time you saw a Scouser with a copy of the Sun? Long memories!
I don't think that Johnson has quite appreciated that this isn't just about Manchester. It's about the Conservatives being seen to be willing to stuff the North in general in its hour of need, and indeed anywhere north of Watford Gap. People in Liverpool and Lancashire won't be castigating Burnham for seeking a slightly better settlement than the paltry one their leaders got. No, they'll be cheering Burnham on. As are those in the North-East and Yorkshire who know they're next in the firing line, followed by the Midlands. This is a government that thinks nothing of throwing billions in lucrative contracts the way of any of the usual outsourcing suspects lining up to profit from coronavirus, in return for services that repeatedly fail to live up to their billing, yet which draws the line at settling for just a paltry £5m extra for Greater Manchester. Desperate people and businesses left to go hang. All the effort that went into winning seats in the Red Wall and promoting the fiction of Levelling Up is being undone before our eyes because Sunak can't find £5m.
We're due an Opinium poll this weekend.
I don't see this causing a swing to Labour myself.
At least not in the short term
Labour are still lacking the brutal ruthlessness of Blair and Brown when harrying the Major government. Starmer needs more passion and brutal contempt. Dodds is invisible and utterly unsuited. Labour needs a bruiser as Shadow Chancellor who can expose the reality of what Sunak’s abandonment of “Whatever It Takes” means.
Yes, getting restaurants emailing me stating "working lunches" are ok indoors. Just spend five minutes at the start discussing if they want to invest in a potential new business venture and its all hunky dory.
A friend from London that where she is (Hampstead) there is absolutely no compliance with the rule of 6 or the one household rule in any of the venues she’s been in.
I live in London (Islington) and there is a very good degree or compliance with the restrictions. There are exceptions - I saw a big bunch of people who I hope were from a single workplace, but I suspect may have been students, completely ignoring things - but the general populace is doing well.
I happened to walk through the north part of Soho on a Saturday night the other day. It was easy to see that there are some significant numbers that are being arses. I was obviously not hanging around, but it did seem that these were often visitors rather than residents in London.
If your friend is finding venues where there isn't a good degree of compliance then she shouldn't go there.
Just cast my NEC ballot. Avoided the slates - including Pidcock. I fully expect that none of my choices will be elected.
What is exciting is that the voting system has been changed from first N past the post to AV. So less chance of a single slate getting all of the seats. However it is likely to take a week to count the ballots.
So you recognise that you wasted your vote. In doing thus you avoided voting for two sitting NEC candidates who voted precisely to bring in by the narrowest of margins the new system you find exciting that puts an end to the Momentum-backed status quo designed to put 9 of their people into all 9 of the constituency seats. You also avoided voting for the rest of the people on their slate who also support that new system. But hey-ho, lets vote for some no-hopers instead.
That's a bit like concocting a spurious excuse to vote for the Green candidate as a write in rather than Biden despite hating Trump.
"Over-50s think that the BBC is stuffed with Islington liberals while students believe it is part of the right-wing establishment, the corporation’s chairman has admitted as he set out the age-related impartiality problem hampering the national broadcaster."
Been spotting Betfair stupidity. In both the Alaska and Arkansas Senate race they have it as a Republican vs Dem match up. In neither state is a Democrat running. In Alaska the Republican is facing an Independent. In Arkansas Tom Cotton is facing a Libertarian opponent.
Al Gross in Alaska calls himself Independent but is running on the Democratic ticket and is listed as so on the ballot (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/election/2020/General/SampleBallots/FED.pdf). This also impacts the Senate market that he would (I think) count as a Democrat should he pull off the upset.
Trump is one of these people who are unhappy their whole lives, until they finally get some terminal diagnosis, at which point they settle into a kind of vindicated satisfaction.
Yes, getting restaurants emailing me stating "working lunches" are ok indoors. Just spend five minutes at the start discussing if they want to invest in a potential new business venture and its all hunky dory.
A friend from London that where she is (Hampstead) there is absolutely no compliance with the rule of 6 or the one household rule in any of the venues she’s been in.
I live in London (Islington) and there is a very good degree or compliance with the restrictions. There are exceptions - I saw a big bunch of people who I hope were from a single workplace, but I suspect may have been students, completely ignoring things - but the general populace is doing well.
I happened to walk through the north part of Soho on a Saturday night the other day. It was easy to see that there are some significant numbers that are being arses. I was obviously not hanging around, but it did seem that these were often visitors rather than residents in London.
If your friend is finding venues where there isn't a good degree of compliance then she shouldn't go there.
She didn’t stay. That’s why she went to a number of venues.
Venues are being made desperate. If there’s no support it’s inevitable that some will turn a blind eye or do the bare minimum. That’s why I wrote yesterday that Sunak’s policy was so stupid because it risks undermining the health message.
"Over-50s think that the BBC is stuffed with Islington liberals while students believe it is part of the right-wing establishment, the corporation’s chairman has admitted as he set out the age-related impartiality problem hampering the national broadcaster."
Sounds like it has the balance about right then. Fwiw I think the workforce there leans left (Hey I know some of the staff) but the newscasting is as impartial as it gets.
Just catching the "local MP for local people. We'll have no funding here!" on Newsnight. Shall I wear a cravat to talk about minimum wage workers being laid off? Oh go on then. Who does the PR?
Yes, getting restaurants emailing me stating "working lunches" are ok indoors. Just spend five minutes at the start discussing if they want to invest in a potential new business venture and its all hunky dory.
A friend from London that where she is (Hampstead) there is absolutely no compliance with the rule of 6 or the one household rule in any of the venues she’s been in.
I live in London (Islington) and there is a very good degree or compliance with the restrictions. There are exceptions - I saw a big bunch of people who I hope were from a single workplace, but I suspect may have been students, completely ignoring things - but the general populace is doing well.
I happened to walk through the north part of Soho on a Saturday night the other day. It was easy to see that there are some significant numbers that are being arses. I was obviously not hanging around, but it did seem that these were often visitors rather than residents in London.
If your friend is finding venues where there isn't a good degree of compliance then she shouldn't go there.
She didn’t stay. That’s why she went to a number of venues.
Venues are being made desperate. If there’s no support it’s inevitable that some will turn a blind eye or do the bare minimum. That’s why I wrote yesterday that Sunak’s policy was so stupid because it risks undermining the health message.
Suppose you get a bill through the door for 250 quid to pay for your local fried chicken establishment's continued existence - would you be happy?
Or for 2500 quid for the opera house next door to continue in operation? (weird neighborhood!)
Blanket support in the short term is good, but it can't be a longer term solution. We keep what we wish to keep, but we have to do so ourselves. I hope you keep your opera house and I also hope you keep the fried chicken place, but that has to be up to you in terms of your patronage or other support.
"Over-50s think that the BBC is stuffed with Islington liberals while students believe it is part of the right-wing establishment, the corporation’s chairman has admitted as he set out the age-related impartiality problem hampering the national broadcaster."
Sounds like it has the balance about right then. Fwiw I think the workforce there leans left (Hey I know some of the staff) but the newscasting is as impartial as it gets.
The workforce in general leans left, though, right? I mean if you just take Labour v Conservative, surely Labour wins a plurality of working voters most elections.
Yes, getting restaurants emailing me stating "working lunches" are ok indoors. Just spend five minutes at the start discussing if they want to invest in a potential new business venture and its all hunky dory.
A friend from London that where she is (Hampstead) there is absolutely no compliance with the rule of 6 or the one household rule in any of the venues she’s been in.
I live in London (Islington) and there is a very good degree or compliance with the restrictions. There are exceptions - I saw a big bunch of people who I hope were from a single workplace, but I suspect may have been students, completely ignoring things - but the general populace is doing well.
I happened to walk through the north part of Soho on a Saturday night the other day. It was easy to see that there are some significant numbers that are being arses. I was obviously not hanging around, but it did seem that these were often visitors rather than residents in London.
If your friend is finding venues where there isn't a good degree of compliance then she shouldn't go there.
She didn’t stay. That’s why she went to a number of venues.
Venues are being made desperate. If there’s no support it’s inevitable that some will turn a blind eye or do the bare minimum. That’s why I wrote yesterday that Sunak’s policy was so stupid because it risks undermining the health message.
Suppose you get a bill through the door for 250 quid to pay for your local fried chicken establishment's continued existence - would you be happy?
Or for 2500 quid for the opera house next door to continue in operation? (weird neighborhood!)
Blanket support in the short term is good, but it can't be a longer term solution. We keep what we wish to keep, but we have to do so ourselves. I hope you keep your opera house and I also hope you keep the fried chicken place, but that has to be up to you in terms of your patronage or other support.
You assume the choice is between paying for support or paying nothing. And that’s simply not true.
We are all going to get a bill through the door for the cost of having all these people unemployed. And I’m certainly not happy about that. I’d rather the money was spent on providing support or compensation.
And I can’t patronise them because they’re either being closed or or forced to turn away my custom.
"Over-50s think that the BBC is stuffed with Islington liberals while students believe it is part of the right-wing establishment, the corporation’s chairman has admitted as he set out the age-related impartiality problem hampering the national broadcaster."
Sounds like it has the balance about right then. Fwiw I think the workforce there leans left (Hey I know some of the staff) but the newscasting is as impartial as it gets.
The workforce in general leans left, though, right? I mean if you just take Labour v Conservative, surely Labour wins a plurality of working voters most elections.
Perhaps not - the retired (not working) are right leaning, but the students (not working) are left leaning. The unemployed are most likely left leaning too.
I don't think its clear cut.
Taxpayers will probably be aligned with the vote if not marginally right, and a weighted number according to the value of tax paid will be to the right.
Getting a job certainly moves you rightwards. It's then your money that's being spent.
"Over-50s think that the BBC is stuffed with Islington liberals while students believe it is part of the right-wing establishment, the corporation’s chairman has admitted as he set out the age-related impartiality problem hampering the national broadcaster."
Sounds like it has the balance about right then. Fwiw I think the workforce there leans left (Hey I know some of the staff) but the newscasting is as impartial as it gets.
The workforce in general leans left, though, right? I mean if you just take Labour v Conservative, surely Labour wins a plurality of working voters most elections.
Perhaps not - the retired (not working) are right leaning, but the students (not working) are left leaning. The unemployed are most likely left leaning too.
I don't think its clear cut.
Taxpayers will probably be aligned with the vote if not marginally right, and a weighted number according to the value of tax paid will be to the right.
Getting a job certainly moves you rightwards. It's then your money that's being spent.
Agree that students are heavily left-leaning, but pensioners actually vote. I've just found some figures for 2017 that confirm it was a clear Labour plurality. I haven't found 2019 figures yet, but I suspect it'll be knife-edge leaning Labour.
Just catching the "local MP for local people. We'll have no funding here!" on Newsnight. Shall I wear a cravat to talk about minimum wage workers being laid off? Oh go on then. Who does the PR?
I thought the round specs and the dark donkey jacket were a nice touch. A cross between Strelnikov in 'Dr Zhivago' and Brando in 'On the Waterfront'. Burnham the Revolutionary! Who'd have thought! It seems like only yesterday he was the Lickspittle of the Labour Party.
I think Johnson will have won the national argument on this one but lost the Northern argument, and as it's crucial and lasting for Northerners and just today's news item for Southerners, that's probably a bad exchange.
Covid cases really accelerating down south now (>400/100,000 in parts of Surrey), so we'll all be in tiers 2/3 soon.
Yep. It's the retired that are the core vote that sees them home. Hence prioritising the Triple Lock over working people. Or even "non-working, cos the government ordered you to shut to protect the retired", people.
Went to my running club for the first time in seven months today. Was going to go last week but it was cancelled due to a covid case ! Small groups, no squash, mandatory to carry a mask (In case of someone getting injured) nevertheless a good way to see a few friends whilst adhering to both the rules and the science
"Over-50s think that the BBC is stuffed with Islington liberals while students believe it is part of the right-wing establishment, the corporation’s chairman has admitted as he set out the age-related impartiality problem hampering the national broadcaster."
Sounds like it has the balance about right then. Fwiw I think the workforce there leans left (Hey I know some of the staff) but the newscasting is as impartial as it gets.
Honestly in most MNCs I've worked at the staff are all pretty left wing, I am not sure it's a BBC thing
I think Johnson will have won the national argument on this one but lost the Northern argument, and as it's crucial and lasting for Northerners and just today's news item for Southerners, that's probably a bad exchange.
Covid cases really accelerating down south now (>400/100,000 in parts of Surrey), so we'll all be in tiers 2/3 soon.
So on balance he has lost, as the North are the seats he needs to keep to win again, without he's back to May's performance.
So what's Starmer's play, any hints? What do you think of his PM chances?
I've been joking about the parallels between UK politics and the French Revolution. I guess we've now reached the Vendée revolt now, with Manchester entering the stage.
Potted history: the Vendée thought the new order in Paris had gone too far and had made unacceptable demands. They resisted but it didn't go at all well for the Vendée; the heavy-handed Parisian response, targeting civilians, left many across the country disgusted. The episode fanned the counter-revolutionary flames and the crackdown was the Pyrrhickest of Pyrrhic victories.
I think Johnson will have won the national argument on this one but lost the Northern argument, and as it's crucial and lasting for Northerners and just today's news item for Southerners, that's probably a bad exchange.
Covid cases really accelerating down south now (>400/100,000 in parts of Surrey), so we'll all be in tiers 2/3 soon.
So on balance he has lost, as the North are the seats he needs to keep to win again, without he's back to May's performance.
So what's Starmer's play, any hints? What do you think of his PM chances?
I think he did well last week with the clarity of his lockdown call - he should see a bump in his personal ratings. He's still pacing himself and only taking an initiative every couple of weeks - in my view he should step it up a bit, but it's important not to overdo it early in the Parliament in mid-crisis.
"Over-50s think that the BBC is stuffed with Islington liberals while students believe it is part of the right-wing establishment, the corporation’s chairman has admitted as he set out the age-related impartiality problem hampering the national broadcaster."
Sounds like it has the balance about right then. Fwiw I think the workforce there leans left (Hey I know some of the staff) but the newscasting is as impartial as it gets.
The workforce in general leans left, though, right? I mean if you just take Labour v Conservative, surely Labour wins a plurality of working voters most elections.
Perhaps not - the retired (not working) are right leaning, but the students (not working) are left leaning. The unemployed are most likely left leaning too.
I don't think its clear cut.
Taxpayers will probably be aligned with the vote if not marginally right, and a weighted number according to the value of tax paid will be to the right.
Getting a job certainly moves you rightwards. It's then your money that's being spent.
That doesn't seem to be borne out by the polls. Most polls show Labour decisively ahead with working-age people, but miles behind with pensioners. For some reason, mysterious to me at 70, getting a pension seems to shift most people sharply to the right within just a few years.
"Over-50s think that the BBC is stuffed with Islington liberals while students believe it is part of the right-wing establishment, the corporation’s chairman has admitted as he set out the age-related impartiality problem hampering the national broadcaster."
Sounds like it has the balance about right then. Fwiw I think the workforce there leans left (Hey I know some of the staff) but the newscasting is as impartial as it gets.
The workforce in general leans left, though, right? I mean if you just take Labour v Conservative, surely Labour wins a plurality of working voters most elections.
Perhaps not - the retired (not working) are right leaning, but the students (not working) are left leaning. The unemployed are most likely left leaning too.
I don't think its clear cut.
Taxpayers will probably be aligned with the vote if not marginally right, and a weighted number according to the value of tax paid will be to the right.
Getting a job certainly moves you rightwards. It's then your money that's being spent.
That doesn't seem to be borne out by the polls. Most polls show Labour decisively ahead with working-age people, but miles behind with pensioners. For some reason, mysterious to me at 70, getting a pension seems to shift most people sharply to the right within just a few years.
At general election 2019 most voters over 39 voted Tory not just over 65, Starmer may have got more middle age voters but it has not shifted that much
I think people vote for Trump not because they like him or his policies, but as a protest vote against the fact that they feel their lives stopped improving about 15 years ago, in contrast to the period 1945 to about 2005 when things seemed to be getting better most of the time for the average person. Trump's opponents need to understand this IMO.
I think people vote for Trump not because they like him or his policies, but as a protest vote against the fact that they feel their lives stopped improving about 15 years ago, in contrast to the period 1945 to about 2005 when things seemed to be getting better most of the time for the average person. Trump's opponents need to understand this IMO.
Too simplistic. Far too simplistic, possibly verging on plain wrong. Clinton won the majority of voters who earn under $50,000. Trump won the majority of voters above $50,000.
That's obviously not the whole story, there's many other ways to look into it, but the above figures are suggestive that you might need to have second thoughts.
I think people vote for Trump not because they like him or his policies, but as a protest vote against the fact that they feel their lives stopped improving about 15 years ago, in contrast to the period 1945 to about 2005 when things seemed to be getting better most of the time for the average person. Trump's opponents need to understand this IMO.
Too simplistic. Far too simplistic, possibly verging on plain wrong. Clinton won the majority of voters who earn under $50,000. Trump won the majority of voters above $50,000.
That's obviously not the whole story, there's many other ways to look into it, but the above figures are suggestive that you might need to have second thoughts.
Trump also only won voters earning $200 000 - 249 999 by 49% to 48% for Hillary and voters earning over $250 000 by 48% to 46% for Hillary.
Obama won voters earning under $50k in 2012 by more than Hillary did in 2016 and Romney won voters earning over $250 000 by by 55% to just 42% for Obama
"Over-50s think that the BBC is stuffed with Islington liberals while students believe it is part of the right-wing establishment, the corporation’s chairman has admitted as he set out the age-related impartiality problem hampering the national broadcaster."
Sounds like it has the balance about right then. Fwiw I think the workforce there leans left (Hey I know some of the staff) but the newscasting is as impartial as it gets.
The workforce in general leans left, though, right? I mean if you just take Labour v Conservative, surely Labour wins a plurality of working voters most elections.
Perhaps not - the retired (not working) are right leaning, but the students (not working) are left leaning. The unemployed are most likely left leaning too.
I don't think its clear cut.
Taxpayers will probably be aligned with the vote if not marginally right, and a weighted number according to the value of tax paid will be to the right.
Getting a job certainly moves you rightwards. It's then your money that's being spent.
That doesn't seem to be borne out by the polls. Most polls show Labour decisively ahead with working-age people, but miles behind with pensioners. For some reason, mysterious to me at 70, getting a pension seems to shift most people sharply to the right within just a few years.
I work in a very working class world, with blokes doing the hard physical bits of heavy engineering. Every single one of them voted out in the EU ref, (one lad in his early 30s had never voted for anything before). They are pretty right-wing in opinion - they feel over-taxed, would be fine with the death penalty, use "homopobic" insults as a matter of course and (not that its a hot topic, but it's come up once or twice) regard giving pubity blockers to teenagers with gender disphoria as child abuse. On the other hand, they are generally in favour of bit of soaking the rich and government spending on what they see as worthy causes (the NHS scores well, diversity co-ordinators or HS2 badly).
There was a time when they mostly would have tribally voted Labour. They almost all voted Tory last time to get Brexit. Currently I think they are pretty disaffected - they think more lockdowns are madness (our firm is in tier 1, but a lot of them live in tier 2 areas), and worry about the potential cost of having to isolate for T&T. I think if there was a GE tomorrow, a lot of them wouldn't vote.
Probably their views would map best onto a sort of UKIPesque populist platform, but currently in lots of ways they are pretty disenfranchised.
I'd imagine that this is worlds away from the views of say teachers. Trying to treat the working age population as homogeneous doesn't really make a lot of sense - there are far too many distinct strands of people with wildly differing subcultures.
I see its being reported Trump walked out of the sixty minutes interview. Anyone know how to watch?
I don't think it's been released yet, Trump is threatening to release the video before it's supposed to air.
60 Minutes is CBS’s flagship Sunday evening current affairs show, so the interview is notionally embargoed to then, although CBS often run teaser extracts from major pieces in the national news in the days running up to the scheduled broadcast.
Apparently a WH videographer also filmed it, officially for the archives, and it’s this that Trump wants to release in now.
Sky History is (or rather, was, until that story broke) running a show to find Britain's top carpenter? And people complain about the BBC dumbing down!
Sky History is (or rather, was, until that story broke) running a show to find Britain's top carpenter? And people complain about the BBC dumbing down!
You are obviously unaware that the History channel has long since ceased being about history. Its hit shows include Pawn Stars, Ice Road Truckers, Swamp People, Ancient Aliens...
Sky History is (or rather, was, until that story broke) running a show to find Britain's top carpenter? And people complain about the BBC dumbing down!
You are obviously unaware that the History channel has long since ceased being about history. Its hit shows include Pawn Stars, Ice Road Truckers, Swamp People, Ancient Aliens...
I feel like one of those judges asking who are the Rolling Stones, though perhaps reference to that cliche dates me too. This Sky History show was, I see, presented by Lee Mack. It is noticeable that many "BBC stars" now appear across all channels and even Youtube, perhaps partly due to pressure from HMRC to establish they really are self-employed.
What is the kremlinology? Cummings is closer to Gove than to Boris. Literally as well as politically now that Cummings has moved out of Number 10 and into Gove's Cabinet Office.
Paradoxically, it may be the rise of Rishi Sunak has stayed Gove's and Cummings' hand. There is no point ousting the prime minister if the wrong man wins the leadership ballot. Ask Michael Heseltine. Is the Manchester row designed to hurt the Chancellor? Will Boris himself cede the extra money (perhaps to the letter-writing Tory MPs rather than to Andy Burnham)?
"Over-50s think that the BBC is stuffed with Islington liberals while students believe it is part of the right-wing establishment, the corporation’s chairman has admitted as he set out the age-related impartiality problem hampering the national broadcaster."
Sounds like it has the balance about right then. Fwiw I think the workforce there leans left (Hey I know some of the staff) but the newscasting is as impartial as it gets.
The workforce in general leans left, though, right? I mean if you just take Labour v Conservative, surely Labour wins a plurality of working voters most elections.
Perhaps not - the retired (not working) are right leaning, but the students (not working) are left leaning. The unemployed are most likely left leaning too.
I don't think its clear cut.
Taxpayers will probably be aligned with the vote if not marginally right, and a weighted number according to the value of tax paid will be to the right.
Getting a job certainly moves you rightwards. It's then your money that's being spent.
That doesn't seem to be borne out by the polls. Most polls show Labour decisively ahead with working-age people, but miles behind with pensioners. For some reason, mysterious to me at 70, getting a pension seems to shift most people sharply to the right within just a few years.
Rather than oldies moving right, it may be that people's views remain constant whilst the zeitgeist shifts around them. The 20-year-olds who marched in 1970 for equal pay for women are not now, as 70-year-olds, demanding that women's wages are cut. It is said that people listen now to the pop music of their late teens and twenties; the same may be true of their politics.
Looks like 538 have already started their election results live blog https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/trump-biden-votes/ So far it's mostly full of reports of how court cases about which votes should count are going. (do Americans realise this is not normal in a mature democracy?) This reported yesterday probably doesn't bode well if the results are close and the supreme court gets involved:
"Last night, the U.S. Supreme Court finally weighed in on a dispute that’s been at their doorstep for quite some time, and declined a request from Pennsylvania Republicans to halt a Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruling that allowed some mail-in ballots to be counted up to three days after Election Day. The outcome was the result of a 4-4 deadlock on the court with Chief Justice Roberts siding with the three liberal justices, since Justices Alito, Thomas, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh all noted in the order that they would have granted the stay.
On an immediate level, this means that the extended deadline stands, and more delays in reporting election results in Pennsylvania are likely. But the divided nature of the order also emphasizes just how important the impending confirmation of Judge Barrett could be for future voting rights rulings. It’s very unusual for the U.S. Supreme Court to overrule a state Supreme Court when interpreting its own state constitution (which was the issue in the Pennsylvania case), and the justices in this case didn’t offer any reasoning for their votes. But if Barrett is confirmed, she could be the decisive vote in future disputes along these lines."
Explains why Republicans are so desperate to confirm her, their slim chances might depend on having a partisan majority on the supreme court.
(do Americans realise this is not normal in a mature democracy?)... if Barrett is confirmed, she could be the decisive vote in future disputes along these lines."
Explains why Republicans are so desperate to confirm her, their slim chances might depend on having a partisan majority on the supreme court.
The last two sentences answer the first one.
The founders made a dreadful error in not insisting on a 2/3 majority in Congress for judicial appointments.
"Over-50s think that the BBC is stuffed with Islington liberals while students believe it is part of the right-wing establishment, the corporation’s chairman has admitted as he set out the age-related impartiality problem hampering the national broadcaster."
Sounds like it has the balance about right then. Fwiw I think the workforce there leans left (Hey I know some of the staff) but the newscasting is as impartial as it gets.
The workforce in general leans left, though, right? I mean if you just take Labour v Conservative, surely Labour wins a plurality of working voters most elections.
Perhaps not - the retired (not working) are right leaning, but the students (not working) are left leaning. The unemployed are most likely left leaning too.
I don't think its clear cut.
Taxpayers will probably be aligned with the vote if not marginally right, and a weighted number according to the value of tax paid will be to the right.
Getting a job certainly moves you rightwards. It's then your money that's being spent.
That doesn't seem to be borne out by the polls. Most polls show Labour decisively ahead with working-age people, but miles behind with pensioners. For some reason, mysterious to me at 70, getting a pension seems to shift most people sharply to the right within just a few years.
Rather than oldies moving right, it may be that people's views remain constant whilst the zeitgeist shifts around them. The 20-year-olds who marched in 1970 for equal pay for women are not now, as 70-year-olds, demanding that women's wages are cut. It is said that people listen now to the pop music of their late teens and twenties; the same may be true of their politics.
We should also remember though that oldies have assets.
As the great Terry Pratchett said, ‘at twenty, young Assassins were poor and fired with a sense of injustice in carrying out their contracts. By the time the survivors got to forty, they were very rich and had concluded that injustice had its good points.’
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And they aren't prepared to compensate for it.
Bitter times ahead. Goodwill of early lockdown brutally squandered by a government determined to pick a fight with anyone and everyone who isn't a donor, chum or core Brexit voter.
They simply don't understand or even like anyone not like them.
People in Argentina have been locked up for ~200 days. Good, surely?
I'm not so sure. It's had 589 deaths per million. Sounds about the same as Sweden.
In other words, this is doing us very little good, at a cost of £100s of billions.
At least not in the short term
I happened to walk through the north part of Soho on a Saturday night the other day. It was easy to see that there are some significant numbers that are being arses. I was obviously not hanging around, but it did seem that these were often visitors rather than residents in London.
If your friend is finding venues where there isn't a good degree of compliance then she shouldn't go there.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1318675787973840896
That's a bit like concocting a spurious excuse to vote for the Green candidate as a write in rather than Biden despite hating Trump.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/generations-are-split-on-whether-bbc-leans-to-the-left-or-right-admits-chairman-tlwg2kzt2
Unending, pathological self pity.
Venues are being made desperate. If there’s no support it’s inevitable that some will turn a blind eye or do the bare minimum. That’s why I wrote yesterday that Sunak’s policy was so stupid because it risks undermining the health message.
Shall I wear a cravat to talk about minimum wage workers being laid off? Oh go on then.
Who does the PR?
Or for 2500 quid for the opera house next door to continue in operation? (weird neighborhood!)
Blanket support in the short term is good, but it can't be a longer term solution. We keep what we wish to keep, but we have to do so ourselves. I hope you keep your opera house and I also hope you keep the fried chicken place, but that has to be up to you in terms of your patronage or other support.
Check out the comments...
We are all going to get a bill through the door for the cost of having all these people unemployed. And I’m certainly not happy about that. I’d rather the money was spent on providing support or compensation.
And I can’t patronise them because they’re either being closed or or forced to turn away my custom.
I don't think its clear cut.
Taxpayers will probably be aligned with the vote if not marginally right, and a weighted number according to the value of tax paid will be to the right.
Getting a job certainly moves you rightwards. It's then your money that's being spent.
I've just found some figures for 2017 that confirm it was a clear Labour plurality. I haven't found 2019 figures yet, but I suspect it'll be knife-edge leaning Labour.
https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/villains/images/4/41/Strelnikov.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20190504220003
Covid cases really accelerating down south now (>400/100,000 in parts of Surrey), so we'll all be in tiers 2/3 soon.
Hence prioritising the Triple Lock over working people.
Or even "non-working, cos the government ordered you to shut to protect the retired", people.
So what's Starmer's play, any hints? What do you think of his PM chances?
Potted history: the Vendée thought the new order in Paris had gone too far and had made unacceptable demands. They resisted but it didn't go at all well for the Vendée; the heavy-handed Parisian response, targeting civilians, left many across the country disgusted. The episode fanned the counter-revolutionary flames and the crackdown was the Pyrrhickest of Pyrrhic victories.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318688094007316481?s=20
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VHbnUAqiOJw
Crazy times.
* Yes this is obviously registrations not Biden or Trump ballots.
Clinton won the majority of voters who earn under $50,000. Trump won the majority of voters above $50,000.
That's obviously not the whole story, there's many other ways to look into it, but the above figures are suggestive that you might need to have second thoughts.
He won voters earning $50 to $99 999 by 50% to 46%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election
Obama won voters earning under $50k in 2012 by more than Hillary did in 2016 and Romney won voters earning over $250 000 by by 55% to just 42% for Obama
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election
I choose America"
That's a powerful line.
There was a time when they mostly would have tribally voted Labour. They almost all voted Tory last time to get Brexit. Currently I think they are pretty disaffected - they think more lockdowns are madness (our firm is in tier 1, but a lot of them live in tier 2 areas), and worry about the potential cost of having to isolate for T&T. I think if there was a GE tomorrow, a lot of them wouldn't vote.
Probably their views would map best onto a sort of UKIPesque populist platform, but currently in lots of ways they are pretty disenfranchised.
I'd imagine that this is worlds away from the views of say teachers. Trying to treat the working age population as homogeneous doesn't really make a lot of sense - there are far too many distinct strands of people with wildly differing subcultures.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8861849/Britains-Woodworker-AXED-Sky-viewers-spotted-Nazi-tattoos-contestants-face.html
Apparently a WH videographer also filmed it, officially for the archives, and it’s this that Trump wants to release in now.
Key states (% of 2016 vote):
PA - 16.7%
MI - 34.3%
WI - 30.8%
FL - 31.7%
NC - 38.9%
AZ - 33.8%
So early voting is ahead of the national average in five of the six most important states - the only exception is PA which is lagging well behind.
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
And people buying more Trump than Biden cookies is evidence against the Shy Trump theory.
São Paulo Governor João Doria said the federal government had agreed to buy 46 million doses of the vaccine CoronaVac.
He said the immunisation programme could begin as soon as January 2021, making it one of the first such efforts in the world to fight the pandemic.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-54619730
What is the kremlinology? Cummings is closer to Gove than to Boris. Literally as well as politically now that Cummings has moved out of Number 10 and into Gove's Cabinet Office.
Paradoxically, it may be the rise of Rishi Sunak has stayed Gove's and Cummings' hand. There is no point ousting the prime minister if the wrong man wins the leadership ballot. Ask Michael Heseltine. Is the Manchester row designed to hurt the Chancellor? Will Boris himself cede the extra money (perhaps to the letter-writing Tory MPs rather than to Andy Burnham)?
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/trump-biden-votes/
So far it's mostly full of reports of how court cases about which votes should count are going. (do Americans realise this is not normal in a mature democracy?)
This reported yesterday probably doesn't bode well if the results are close and the supreme court gets involved:
"Last night, the U.S. Supreme Court finally weighed in on a dispute that’s been at their doorstep for quite some time, and declined a request from Pennsylvania Republicans to halt a Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruling that allowed some mail-in ballots to be counted up to three days after Election Day. The outcome was the result of a 4-4 deadlock on the court with Chief Justice Roberts siding with the three liberal justices, since Justices Alito, Thomas, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh all noted in the order that they would have granted the stay.
On an immediate level, this means that the extended deadline stands, and more delays in reporting election results in Pennsylvania are likely. But the divided nature of the order also emphasizes just how important the impending confirmation of Judge Barrett could be for future voting rights rulings. It’s very unusual for the U.S. Supreme Court to overrule a state Supreme Court when interpreting its own state constitution (which was the issue in the Pennsylvania case), and the justices in this case didn’t offer any reasoning for their votes. But if Barrett is confirmed, she could be the decisive vote in future disputes along these lines."
Explains why Republicans are so desperate to confirm her, their slim chances might depend on having a partisan majority on the supreme court.
The founders made a dreadful error in not insisting on a 2/3 majority in Congress for judicial appointments.
As the great Terry Pratchett said, ‘at twenty, young Assassins were poor and fired with a sense of injustice in carrying out their contracts. By the time the survivors got to forty, they were very rich and had concluded that injustice had its good points.’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n2Xufahbaq4