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The Johnson/Cummings power grab is in danger of undermining democracy – politicalbetting.com

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  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    HYUFD said:

    Seems to me Sunak runs the risk of being Brown 2.0

    He has charisma, Brown didn't
    Does he? He's not exactly the musichall song and dance act that is Johnson.
    He's the straight man, Johnson's the fall guy.
    So the charisma of Sid Little?
    Not necessarily that much.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    How long before he turns on Dom?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129
    edited October 2020

    kle4 said:

    So, is the great Brexit capitulation incoming? Get your bets in now

    Will we wait to see if a deal (if one is had) is a capitulation (as may well be likely) rather than assume that a deal is, in itself, evidence of capitulation?
    Both sides will claim victory, as per normal.
    They'll probably simultaneously claim victory to one audience, whilst officially saying it was balanced and even maybe they lost out a little to another, even if it was one sided, so each can help sell it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    HYUFD said:

    Seems to me Sunak runs the risk of being Brown 2.0

    He has charisma, Brown didn't
    Does he? He's not exactly the musichall song and dance act that is Johnson.
    People have had enough of music hall.
    HYUFD is convinced Sunak's "charisma" will get him over the line.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    Boris or Cummings? One is just a lockdown bandit but not deranged/syphilitic.
  • HYUFD said:

    I think Sunak might repeat Cameron's 2015 performance but I think Tory seats are down from 2019's high point. Fair play, they beat us good.

    I genuinely wonder if 2024 will be 2010 repeat but with Labour the largest party.

    If Labour lose in 2024 after the combined post-Brexit/ post- Covid s***show, you can hunker down for a lifetime of Conservative governments.
    People said the same after 1992, until 1997
    What is coming down the track is far, far worse than Black Wednesday. If Labour lose in 2024 it is time to board up the shop and move on.
    Who will you be voting for? :)
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    edited October 2020
    Manchester was a complete mess prior to the mayoralty. Everything had to be done via informal partnership between the ten (?) boroughs and there was no figurehead to lead the city forward.

    The GM mayor is a victory for anti-parochialism (“it’s Salford not Manchester, etc etc”). A similar model should have been imposed in Greater Nottingham and Greater Newcastle and other major cities that are underbounded.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    They really ought to have had a referendum on whether the people of Greater Manchester even wanted a directly elected mayor.

    Will that be before or after we have the refereundum on the decision to remove the GM council in 1986?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Manchester_County_Council#Abolition

    Government policy on the issue was considered throughout 1982, and the Conservative Party put a "promise to scrap the metropolitan county councils" and the GLC, in their manifesto for the 1983 general election.
    As was the Northern Powerhouse a policy of the Cameron government which mayors were a major part.
    And when asked, the people of Manchester said "no thanks", and yet Cameron and Osborne did it anyway.
    You do understand that the Manchester mayor was for a small part of the city with no power and the metro mayor covers the city region with real powers and as such the referendum gives you no insight as to what people wanted?

    People want real powers devolved locally, not some bull shit mayor with no powers covering a tiny section of the city.
    I'm going to be really annoying and say that I think Paris' mayor, with a very tightly defined area (in London terms bounded by the North Circular) and serious powers is actually quite a good compromise. The reason I like it is because they tend to prioritise people who actually live and work in the city centre, rather than being beholden to various NIMBY outfits and grumpy residents' associations like the London mayor is.
  • Seems to me Sunak is so far popular because the current cabinet is shite and he's thrown money around, has he had any actual crises to manage?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think Sunak might repeat Cameron's 2015 performance but I think Tory seats are down from 2019's high point. Fair play, they beat us good.

    I genuinely wonder if 2024 will be 2010 repeat but with Labour the largest party.

    If Labour lose in 2024 after the combined post-Brexit/ post- Covid s***show, you can hunker down for a lifetime of Conservative governments.
    People said the same after 1992, until 1997
    What is coming down the track is far, far worse than Black Wednesday. If Labour lose in 2024 it is time to board up the shop and move on.
    Only if we go to No Deal with the EU on top of Covid with no vaccine and are still in that scenario in 2024
    No Deal and no vaccine are just the icing and the candles on the cake. Where have you been for the last six months?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    But EU officials, and senior diplomats from Europe’s biggest capitals, say they are relaxed about the U.K.’s posturing, which they say they recognize is necessary for Johnson to be able to sell a compromise to euro-skeptics at home. One official described the current standoff as theatrics. Another called Friday’s statement an expected and artificial provocation.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-20/the-eu-has-a-plan-to-get-a-brexit-deal-let-johnson-claim-he-won

    At some point Johnson has to face the music on Brexit and he seems totally unprepared to do so. Whining "They didn't give us Canada" won't cut it as people find themselves mired in the chaos.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    They really ought to have had a referendum on whether the people of Greater Manchester even wanted a directly elected mayor.

    Will that be before or after we have the refereundum on the decision to remove the GM council in 1986?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Manchester_County_Council#Abolition

    Government policy on the issue was considered throughout 1982, and the Conservative Party put a "promise to scrap the metropolitan county councils" and the GLC, in their manifesto for the 1983 general election.
    As was the Northern Powerhouse a policy of the Cameron government which mayors were a major part.
    And when asked, the people of Manchester said "no thanks", and yet Cameron and Osborne did it anyway.
    Which rather shows the pointlessness of asking. If they thought it was a good idea, and were prepared to do it no matter the vote outcome, they shouldn't have bothered to ask. Democratic outrage, perhaps, but they don't seem to be complaining about it now. It's like when they create unitaries - suddenly otherwise normal people get really intensely attached to their local district council or whatever, but push it through and most people won't care.

    IIRC only Bristol said yes in the round of mayoral referendums.
  • If Biden wins then Starmer will surely feel empowered that boring and dull can win elections again
  • Tier 3 is national lockdown by stealth but with none of the financial support.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    HYUFD said:

    Seems to me Sunak runs the risk of being Brown 2.0

    He has charisma, Brown didn't

    Charisma doesn’t pay the bills.

    And people are sick of it already.
  • A government that actively loathes so much of the country it governs is not one capable of creating a fairer, more contented society.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129

    How long before he turns on Dom?
    I don't know why he hasn't already. Advisers themselves usually know to jump ship to protect the boss after a while.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    HYUFD said:

    I think Sunak might repeat Cameron's 2015 performance but I think Tory seats are down from 2019's high point. Fair play, they beat us good.

    I genuinely wonder if 2024 will be 2010 repeat but with Labour the largest party.

    If Labour lose in 2024 after the combined post-Brexit/ post- Covid s***show, you can hunker down for a lifetime of Conservative governments.
    People said the same after 1992, until 1997
    What is coming down the track is far, far worse than Black Wednesday. If Labour lose in 2024 it is time to board up the shop and move on.
    Who will you be voting for? :)
    I will assess the quality of my constituency candidates, and if Satan himself is standing in the Vale of Glamorgan, he gets my vote over Alun Cairns.
  • Welsh ministers say they cannot rule out imposing another firebreak lockdown early in 2021 if Covid-19 starts spreading quickly again at Christmas.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137

    If Biden wins then Starmer will surely feel empowered that boring and dull can win elections again

    Even Biden has more charisma than Starmer
  • Manchester was a complete mess prior to the mayoralty. Everything had to be done via informal partnership between the ten (?) boroughs and there was no figurehead to lead the city forward.

    The GM mayor is a victory for anti-parochialism (“it’s Salford not Manchester, etc etc). A similar model should have been imposed in Greater Nottingham and Greater Newcastle and other major cities that are underbounded.

    Only London should have a single figurehead fighting for all the city, not those northern peasants who should be encouraged to have in-fighting and divide and rule.

    See the video of Burnham on BBC news earlier, with the news that the government wanted to divide and conquer the 10 boroughs against each other.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    kle4 said:

    How long before he turns on Dom?
    I don't know why he hasn't already. Advisers themselves usually know to jump ship to protect the boss after a while.
    Because he's an arrogant pseud who thinks politics and optics don't matter.
  • HYUFD said:

    If Biden wins then Starmer will surely feel empowered that boring and dull can win elections again

    Even Biden has more charisma than Starmer
    Does he though?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    Welsh ministers say they cannot rule out imposing another firebreak lockdown early in 2021 if Covid-19 starts spreading quickly again at Christmas.

    ...and your point is?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,315
    edited October 2020
    FF43 said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Andy Burnham has been elevated to cult meme status, it's such a shame he is not an MP

    I chucked a couple of quid on him as next PM at 94/1. Weirder things have happened.
    The next PM is likely to be a Tory.

    Probably not Sunak after he's just shafted the North.

    The Harrying of the North will not be forgotten.
    I could see the Tories losing much of the Red Wall under Sunak but then I could see them regaining southern seats like St Albans, Putney, Richmond Park, Enfield Southgate and Battersea and a few Midlands seats like Warwick and Leamington they won under Cameron but have now lost under his leadership to partly make up for it
    The Tories re-taking seats in London...?
    Under Sunak yes, he has an approval rating of 56% in London and 57% with Remain voters a big contrast with Boris.

    Sunak would also make the necessary compromises with the EU for a FTA most likely Boris would not eg on state aid



    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/5hz2esvj6l/TheTimes_BudgetResults_200709.pdf
    Had a high approval rating in early July. That was cut-price-Dishy Rishi, not Stingy Sunak.
    Who is currently copping the blame for Manchester - Sunak's name isn't being mentioned
    Good point. I wonder why not?

    Say you are a beleaguered prime minister - colleagues are openly saying you should be replaced by your more competent and more popular chancellor. You have to stand up in a press conference to defend the indefensible policy that (as as we know) originated with that chancellor. Wouldn't you want to say, actually it's his policy?
    Because it invites the obvious response: “You’re the PM. If you don’t like the policy, change it or sack him. And if you can’t do that, you’re weak.”
  • Manchester was a complete mess prior to the mayoralty. Everything had to be done via informal partnership between the ten (?) boroughs and there was no figurehead to lead the city forward.

    The GM mayor is a victory for anti-parochialism (“it’s Salford not Manchester, etc etc). A similar model should have been imposed in Greater Nottingham and Greater Newcastle and other major cities that are underbounded.

    Only London should have a single figurehead fighting for all the city, not those northern peasants who should be encouraged to have in-fighting and divide and rule.

    See the video of Burnham on BBC news earlier, with the news that the government wanted to divide and conquer the 10 boroughs against each other.
    We need a proper federal UK, unfortunately Cummings has lied and hoodwinked a load of people into believing that is what he will deliver.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited October 2020
    FF43 said:

    But EU officials, and senior diplomats from Europe’s biggest capitals, say they are relaxed about the U.K.’s posturing, which they say they recognize is necessary for Johnson to be able to sell a compromise to euro-skeptics at home. One official described the current standoff as theatrics. Another called Friday’s statement an expected and artificial provocation.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-20/the-eu-has-a-plan-to-get-a-brexit-deal-let-johnson-claim-he-won

    At some point Johnson has to face the music on Brexit and he seems totally unprepared to do so. Whining "They didn't give us Canada" won't cut it as people find themselves mired in the chaos.
    One of the problems is that the government may see it in their political interests to try and go for no deal (and blame the EU) instead of the deal which they claim to want but will still be a monumental sh*tshow. People will say, "you spent months negotiating for THIS?". Only exception might be if they agreed an implementation period, but i'm not sure they'll be able to sell that either.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    HYUFD said:

    If Biden wins then Starmer will surely feel empowered that boring and dull can win elections again

    Even Biden has more charisma than Starmer
    Major had less Charisma than either and won in 1992. Charisma is a dump stat in D&D for a reason. It can only get you so far before you end up in front of a troll that wants to eat you and isn't interested in your romantic poetry.
  • ManchesterKurtManchesterKurt Posts: 921
    edited October 2020
    Manchester has an economic population of well over 2m, that is a comparable measure against other cities.

    There will be no other democratic western city of Manchester's size that has a mayor with so limited powers.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    edited October 2020

    If Biden wins then Starmer will surely feel empowered that boring and dull can win elections again

    Don't buy into this "charisma" rubbish. If the economy is on its knees and the Conservatives are blamed for it, Elvis could be the incumbent Tory Prime Minister,and he would lose to anyone, even someone with a charisma-by-pass
  • Bit bemused by this idea that charisma is now important, we've voted for charisma and it's been a disaster.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    OnboardG1 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    They really ought to have had a referendum on whether the people of Greater Manchester even wanted a directly elected mayor.

    Will that be before or after we have the refereundum on the decision to remove the GM council in 1986?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Manchester_County_Council#Abolition

    Government policy on the issue was considered throughout 1982, and the Conservative Party put a "promise to scrap the metropolitan county councils" and the GLC, in their manifesto for the 1983 general election.
    As was the Northern Powerhouse a policy of the Cameron government which mayors were a major part.
    And when asked, the people of Manchester said "no thanks", and yet Cameron and Osborne did it anyway.
    You do understand that the Manchester mayor was for a small part of the city with no power and the metro mayor covers the city region with real powers and as such the referendum gives you no insight as to what people wanted?

    People want real powers devolved locally, not some bull shit mayor with no powers covering a tiny section of the city.
    I'm going to be really annoying and say that I think Paris' mayor, with a very tightly defined area (in London terms bounded by the North Circular) and serious powers is actually quite a good compromise. The reason I like it is because they tend to prioritise people who actually live and work in the city centre, rather than being beholden to various NIMBY outfits and grumpy residents' associations like the London mayor is.
    So the London mayoralty should exclude Ealing, Wimbledon, Chingford, Streatham etc etc?

    No. These are London suburbs that are rightly part and parcel of a great city.
  • OnboardG1 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    They really ought to have had a referendum on whether the people of Greater Manchester even wanted a directly elected mayor.

    Will that be before or after we have the refereundum on the decision to remove the GM council in 1986?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Manchester_County_Council#Abolition

    Government policy on the issue was considered throughout 1982, and the Conservative Party put a "promise to scrap the metropolitan county councils" and the GLC, in their manifesto for the 1983 general election.
    As was the Northern Powerhouse a policy of the Cameron government which mayors were a major part.
    And when asked, the people of Manchester said "no thanks", and yet Cameron and Osborne did it anyway.
    You do understand that the Manchester mayor was for a small part of the city with no power and the metro mayor covers the city region with real powers and as such the referendum gives you no insight as to what people wanted?

    People want real powers devolved locally, not some bull shit mayor with no powers covering a tiny section of the city.
    I'm going to be really annoying and say that I think Paris' mayor, with a very tightly defined area (in London terms bounded by the North Circular) and serious powers is actually quite a good compromise. The reason I like it is because they tend to prioritise people who actually live and work in the city centre, rather than being beholden to various NIMBY outfits and grumpy residents' associations like the London mayor is.
    So the London mayoralty should exclude Ealing, Wimbledon, Chingford, Streatham etc etc?

    No. These are London suburbs that are rightly part and parcel of a great city.
    No just exclude the Labour voting parts
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,775

    A government that actively loathes so much of the country it governs is not one capable of creating a fairer, more contented society.

    Happily we voted Tory though.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Manchester was a complete mess prior to the mayoralty. Everything had to be done via informal partnership between the ten (?) boroughs and there was no figurehead to lead the city forward.

    The GM mayor is a victory for anti-parochialism (“it’s Salford not Manchester, etc etc). A similar model should have been imposed in Greater Nottingham and Greater Newcastle and other major cities that are underbounded.

    Only London should have a single figurehead fighting for all the city, not those northern peasants who should be encouraged to have in-fighting and divide and rule.

    See the video of Burnham on BBC news earlier, with the news that the government wanted to divide and conquer the 10 boroughs against each other.
    Spot on.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Bit bemused by this idea that charisma is now important, we've voted for charisma and it's been a disaster.

    How about some basic competence and ability to stand if front of the cameras and explain a policy in a way that actually informs the public rather than just using meaningless cliches or focus grouped phrases?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    The Tories risk a repeat of the Section 28 disaster here, trying to ban things being talked about in schools is always a bad idea. Teachers are just going to avoid any discussion of contentious ideas, so kids will be left with no context, no adult guidance, no opportunity to debate and think. Kids are not attracted to BLM because of their teachers, but their teachers could help them to think the issues through carefully, with nuance and context. Without that they will just get it from YouTube.
    When I was at school my favourite teacher was utterly reactionary, used to lambast socialists and constantly try to pick fights with left wing pupils. But the fact that he relished political arguments made him a great teacher. At no point did he indoctrinate me or anyone else, but he helped us think through our developing political views. No doubt he'd be afraid to express any views now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129
    Cyclefree said:

    FF43 said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Andy Burnham has been elevated to cult meme status, it's such a shame he is not an MP

    I chucked a couple of quid on him as next PM at 94/1. Weirder things have happened.
    The next PM is likely to be a Tory.

    Probably not Sunak after he's just shafted the North.

    The Harrying of the North will not be forgotten.
    I could see the Tories losing much of the Red Wall under Sunak but then I could see them regaining southern seats like St Albans, Putney, Richmond Park, Enfield Southgate and Battersea and a few Midlands seats like Warwick and Leamington they won under Cameron but have now lost under his leadership to partly make up for it
    The Tories re-taking seats in London...?
    Under Sunak yes, he has an approval rating of 56% in London and 57% with Remain voters a big contrast with Boris.

    Sunak would also make the necessary compromises with the EU for a FTA most likely Boris would not eg on state aid



    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/5hz2esvj6l/TheTimes_BudgetResults_200709.pdf
    Had a high approval rating in early July. That was cut-price-Dishy Rishi, not Stingy Sunak.
    Who is currently copping the blame for Manchester - Sunak's name isn't being mentioned
    Good point. I wonder why not?

    Say you are a beleaguered prime minister - colleagues are openly saying you should be replaced by your more competent and more popular chancellor. You have to stand up in a press conference to defend the indefensible policy that (as as we know) originated with that chancellor. Wouldn't you want to say, actually it's his policy?
    Because it invites the obvious response: “You’re the PM. If you don’t like the policy, change it or sack him. And if you can’t do that, you’re weak.”
    It's remarkable how often PMs, and their media and political surrogates, use it as an excuse. Chancellors forcing things on PMs is often asserted beyond the point of plausibility, as in when proposals are made in a budget which cause a media stink and are then rolled back in such a way that people make clear the PMs wanted nothing to do with it, when they must have signed it off.

    I really cannot think in recent times of a pair other than Cameron and Osborne who didn't seem to be at odds, and there were probably reports of it at the time and I just don't remember it, necause they seemed so obviously in sync.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    kle4 said:

    How long before he turns on Dom?
    I don't know why he hasn't already. Advisers themselves usually know to jump ship to protect the boss after a while.
    Cummings isn't an adviser. Johnson isn't quite the boss either.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    If Biden wins then Starmer will surely feel empowered that boring and dull can win elections again

    Don't buy into this "charisma" rubbish. If the economy is on its knees and the Conservatives are blamed for it, Elvis could be the incumbent Tory Prime Minister,and he would lose to anyone, even someone with a charisma-by-pass
    😂

    Actual LOL.
  • Yes, getting restaurants emailing me stating "working lunches" are ok indoors. Just spend five minutes at the start discussing if they want to invest in a potential new business venture and its all hunky dory.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,315
    edited October 2020

    Tier 3 is national lockdown by stealth but with none of the financial support.

    It’s exactly the sort of dishonesty you expect from a government led by a liar, wh has appointed so many liars to his Cabinet.

    If it continues the economic pain will be awful.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    How long before he turns on Dom?
    I don't know why he hasn't already. Advisers themselves usually know to jump ship to protect the boss after a while.
    Cummings isn't an adviser. Johnson isn't quite the boss either.
    I assumed @kle4 was querying why Johnson hasn't resigned to protect Cummings.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129

    The Tories risk a repeat of the Section 28 disaster here, trying to ban things being talked about in schools is always a bad idea. Teachers are just going to avoid any discussion of contentious ideas, so kids will be left with no context, no adult guidance, no opportunity to debate and think. Kids are not attracted to BLM because of their teachers, but their teachers could help them to think the issues through carefully, with nuance and context. Without that they will just get it from YouTube.
    When I was at school my favourite teacher was utterly reactionary, used to lambast socialists and constantly try to pick fights with left wing pupils. But the fact that he relished political arguments made him a great teacher. At no point did he indoctrinate me or anyone else, but he helped us think through our developing political views. No doubt he'd be afraid to express any views now.
    Surely the point she as making was the teaching of such political things as uncontested fact was what would be wrong, not that they could not be taught, discussed and debated?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,706

    Mr Gove’s claim that Brexit was like moving to a new house — initially a hassle but ultimately worth it — was received “like a bucket of cold sick”, according to one participant. Another said it was “rehashed boosterism”. Mr Johnson said he would help business get ready for the change.

    I thought we held all the cards and Brexit had no downsides?

    Is the new house part of a lorry camp in Kent?
  • You can always tell around these parts when the Tories done goofed, PB Tories suddenly go quiet
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Manchester has an economic population of well over 2m, that is a comparable measure against other cities.

    There will be no other democratic western city of Manchester's size that has a mayor with so limited powers.

    It’s nearer three million IMO.

    There’s a strong case for bringing the likes of Wilmslow and Alderley Edge into the mayoralty.

    I used to go out with a girl from Handforth. They think of themselves as Cheshire set but it’s all Manchester economically.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    The Tories risk a repeat of the Section 28 disaster here, trying to ban things being talked about in schools is always a bad idea. Teachers are just going to avoid any discussion of contentious ideas, so kids will be left with no context, no adult guidance, no opportunity to debate and think. Kids are not attracted to BLM because of their teachers, but their teachers could help them to think the issues through carefully, with nuance and context. Without that they will just get it from YouTube.
    When I was at school my favourite teacher was utterly reactionary, used to lambast socialists and constantly try to pick fights with left wing pupils. But the fact that he relished political arguments made him a great teacher. At no point did he indoctrinate me or anyone else, but he helped us think through our developing political views. No doubt he'd be afraid to express any views now.
    Wait, @HYUFD was a teacher at your school? What a coincidence!
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    kle4 said:

    The Tories risk a repeat of the Section 28 disaster here, trying to ban things being talked about in schools is always a bad idea. Teachers are just going to avoid any discussion of contentious ideas, so kids will be left with no context, no adult guidance, no opportunity to debate and think. Kids are not attracted to BLM because of their teachers, but their teachers could help them to think the issues through carefully, with nuance and context. Without that they will just get it from YouTube.
    When I was at school my favourite teacher was utterly reactionary, used to lambast socialists and constantly try to pick fights with left wing pupils. But the fact that he relished political arguments made him a great teacher. At no point did he indoctrinate me or anyone else, but he helped us think through our developing political views. No doubt he'd be afraid to express any views now.
    Surely the point she as making was the teaching of such political things as uncontested fact was what would be wrong, not that they could not be taught, discussed and debated?
    The reality is people will just steer clear of any discussion at all. One kid misreports what you said and you face a disciplinary.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,315

    Yes, getting restaurants emailing me stating "working lunches" are ok indoors. Just spend five minutes at the start discussing if they want to invest in a potential new business venture and its all hunky dory.
    A friend from London that where she is (Hampstead) there is absolutely no compliance with the rule of 6 or the one household rule in any of the venues she’s been in.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    edited October 2020

    If Biden wins then Starmer will surely feel empowered that boring and dull can win elections again

    Don't buy into this "charisma" rubbish. If the economy is on its knees and the Conservatives are blamed for it, Elvis could be the incumbent Tory Prime Minister,and he would lose to anyone, even someone with a charisma-by-pass
    Every election in the last 50 years has been won by the most charismatic candidate except 1970 and 1992 and 2017 (though the latter saw May still lose her majority).

    In 1970 the economy was in the doldrums and Wilson lost but in 1992 the economy was also in the doldrums and Major won so a mixed message and Major was more charismatic than Starmer, in 2015 the economy was also still not fully recovered but Cameron won anyway.
  • kle4 said:

    The Tories risk a repeat of the Section 28 disaster here, trying to ban things being talked about in schools is always a bad idea. Teachers are just going to avoid any discussion of contentious ideas, so kids will be left with no context, no adult guidance, no opportunity to debate and think. Kids are not attracted to BLM because of their teachers, but their teachers could help them to think the issues through carefully, with nuance and context. Without that they will just get it from YouTube.
    When I was at school my favourite teacher was utterly reactionary, used to lambast socialists and constantly try to pick fights with left wing pupils. But the fact that he relished political arguments made him a great teacher. At no point did he indoctrinate me or anyone else, but he helped us think through our developing political views. No doubt he'd be afraid to express any views now.
    Surely the point she as making was the teaching of such political things as uncontested fact was what would be wrong, not that they could not be taught, discussed and debated?
    The reality is people will just steer clear of any discussion at all. One kid misreports what you said and you face a disciplinary.
    It's all part of the Tory idea the schools are full of leftie teachers indoctrinating the pupils
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    Is Sunak likely to win a leadership contest? I know very little with how he stands with party members, is he likely to run?

    Started sounding like a slippery sycophant. The love affair will soon be over.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    I'd vote for Kemi Badenoch as PM.

    That clip of her is superb - remarkable talent.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    OnboardG1 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    They really ought to have had a referendum on whether the people of Greater Manchester even wanted a directly elected mayor.

    Will that be before or after we have the refereundum on the decision to remove the GM council in 1986?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Manchester_County_Council#Abolition

    Government policy on the issue was considered throughout 1982, and the Conservative Party put a "promise to scrap the metropolitan county councils" and the GLC, in their manifesto for the 1983 general election.
    As was the Northern Powerhouse a policy of the Cameron government which mayors were a major part.
    And when asked, the people of Manchester said "no thanks", and yet Cameron and Osborne did it anyway.
    You do understand that the Manchester mayor was for a small part of the city with no power and the metro mayor covers the city region with real powers and as such the referendum gives you no insight as to what people wanted?

    People want real powers devolved locally, not some bull shit mayor with no powers covering a tiny section of the city.
    I'm going to be really annoying and say that I think Paris' mayor, with a very tightly defined area (in London terms bounded by the North Circular) and serious powers is actually quite a good compromise. The reason I like it is because they tend to prioritise people who actually live and work in the city centre, rather than being beholden to various NIMBY outfits and grumpy residents' associations like the London mayor is.
    So the London mayoralty should exclude Ealing, Wimbledon, Chingford, Streatham etc etc?

    No. These are London suburbs that are rightly part and parcel of a great city.
    I'm sure the Wimbledon Popular front will be sad, but they'll cope.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    FF43 said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Andy Burnham has been elevated to cult meme status, it's such a shame he is not an MP

    I chucked a couple of quid on him as next PM at 94/1. Weirder things have happened.
    The next PM is likely to be a Tory.

    Probably not Sunak after he's just shafted the North.

    The Harrying of the North will not be forgotten.
    I could see the Tories losing much of the Red Wall under Sunak but then I could see them regaining southern seats like St Albans, Putney, Richmond Park, Enfield Southgate and Battersea and a few Midlands seats like Warwick and Leamington they won under Cameron but have now lost under his leadership to partly make up for it
    The Tories re-taking seats in London...?
    Under Sunak yes, he has an approval rating of 56% in London and 57% with Remain voters a big contrast with Boris.

    Sunak would also make the necessary compromises with the EU for a FTA most likely Boris would not eg on state aid



    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/5hz2esvj6l/TheTimes_BudgetResults_200709.pdf
    Had a high approval rating in early July. That was cut-price-Dishy Rishi, not Stingy Sunak.
    Who is currently copping the blame for Manchester - Sunak's name isn't being mentioned
    Good point. I wonder why not?

    Say you are a beleaguered prime minister - colleagues are openly saying you should be replaced by your more competent and more popular chancellor. You have to stand up in a press conference to defend the indefensible policy that (as as we know) originated with that chancellor. Wouldn't you want to say, actually it's his policy?
    Because it invites the obvious response: “You’re the PM. If you don’t like the policy, change it or sack him. And if you can’t do that, you’re weak.”
    It's remarkable how often PMs, and their media and political surrogates, use it as an excuse. Chancellors forcing things on PMs is often asserted beyond the point of plausibility, as in when proposals are made in a budget which cause a media stink and are then rolled back in such a way that people make clear the PMs wanted nothing to do with it, when they must have signed it off.

    I really cannot think in recent times of a pair other than Cameron and Osborne who didn't seem to be at odds, and there were probably reports of it at the time and I just don't remember it, necause they seemed so obviously in sync.
    Ozzie told Cameron, "FFS don't hold an EU Referendum, you will lose". At odds, or just sound friendly advice?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Cyclefree said:

    Tier 3 is national lockdown by stealth but with none of the financial support.

    It’s exactly the sort of dishonesty you expect from a government led by a liar, wh has appointed so many liars to his Cabinet.

    If it continues the economic pain will be awful.
    Yep. I can't see how we avoid an economic depression now. The reckoning on all this is going to be way beyond anything any of us have seen in our lifetimes.

    Cities are being locked down where the case rate is falling. If that's the scientific "advice" then the whole UK will be locked down apart from the Scilly Isles by end of October.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited October 2020
    alex_ said:

    FF43 said:

    But EU officials, and senior diplomats from Europe’s biggest capitals, say they are relaxed about the U.K.’s posturing, which they say they recognize is necessary for Johnson to be able to sell a compromise to euro-skeptics at home. One official described the current standoff as theatrics. Another called Friday’s statement an expected and artificial provocation.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-20/the-eu-has-a-plan-to-get-a-brexit-deal-let-johnson-claim-he-won

    At some point Johnson has to face the music on Brexit and he seems totally unprepared to do so. Whining "They didn't give us Canada" won't cut it as people find themselves mired in the chaos.
    One of the problems is that the government may see it in their political interests to try and go for no deal (and blame the EU) instead of the deal which they claim to want but will still be a monumental sh*tshow. People will say, "you spent months negotiating for THIS?". Only exception might be if they agreed an implementation period, but i'm not sure they'll be able to sell that either.
    It's going to be a monumental shitshow either way. No Deal is worse however. Problem is they are STILL talking about Opportunities of Becoming an Independent State. If they warned people a tsunami will hit you on January 1st, for God's sake get ready, (a) people will be less shocked when it does actually hit and (b) might demand the government concede something to the EU to mitigate the damage.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    edited October 2020

    I'd vote for Kemi Badenoch as PM.

    That clip of her is superb - remarkable talent.

    I figured you'd be all over that culture war rubbish.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,076
    I see over a quarter of 2016 voter turnout has already taken place:

    https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

    I'm not sure what the betting implications are, other than late shifts in the polls (e.g. after this week's debate) are of diminishing importance. So on balance that's probably good for Biden given his lead.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think Sunak might repeat Cameron's 2015 performance but I think Tory seats are down from 2019's high point. Fair play, they beat us good.

    I genuinely wonder if 2024 will be 2010 repeat but with Labour the largest party.

    If Labour lose in 2024 after the combined post-Brexit/ post- Covid s***show, you can hunker down for a lifetime of Conservative governments.
    People said the same after 1992, until 1997
    What is coming down the track is far, far worse than Black Wednesday. If Labour lose in 2024 it is time to board up the shop and move on.
    Only if we go to No Deal with the EU on top of Covid with no vaccine and are still in that scenario in 2024
    What do you make of the argument put forward by (say) Phillip that the deal Boris is seeking is so supermodel-thin that it won't make much difference whether a deal happens or not? On one hand, I think he's right, the success or failure of January 2021 depends on having import/export systems working, and zero tariffs are neither here nor there. But I don't see the systems working, and I do see that failure being an extinction-level disaster for the government.

    Second, how does Rishi keep clean enough hands to convincingly take over after Johnson and make everything better? If the next act of Brexit goes wrong, isn't he complicit?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    HYUFD said:

    If Biden wins then Starmer will surely feel empowered that boring and dull can win elections again

    Don't buy into this "charisma" rubbish. If the economy is on its knees and the Conservatives are blamed for it, Elvis could be the incumbent Tory Prime Minister,and he would lose to anyone, even someone with a charisma-by-pass
    Every election in the last 50 years has been won by the most charismatic candidate except 1970 and 1992 and 2017 (though the latter saw May still lose her majority).

    In 1970 the economy was in the doldrums and Wilson lost but in 1992 the economy was also in the doldrums and Major won so a mixed message and Major was more charismatic than Starmer, in 2015 the economy was also still not fully recovered but Cameron won anyway.
    ...and the economy won't be in the doldrums in 2024?

    Damn, I've inadvertently bought into your ridiculous premise!
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    Ratters said:

    I see over a quarter of 2016 voter turnout has already taken place:

    https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

    I'm not sure what the betting implications are, other than late shifts in the polls (e.g. after this week's debate) are of diminishing importance. So on balance that's probably good for Biden given his lead.

    It potentially shows voter enthusiasm. I think there'll be a good turnout, but I'm not sure it tells us much else.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    So. This 3 Tier system has had 8 days to bed in. How do we think it is going all things considered?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    By far the best paper of the pandemic.

    On point, time after time.
  • dixiedean said:

    So. This 3 Tier system has had 8 days to bed in. How do we think it is going all things considered?

    Probably about 8 days from a revolution is my guess
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798

    kle4 said:

    The Tories risk a repeat of the Section 28 disaster here, trying to ban things being talked about in schools is always a bad idea. Teachers are just going to avoid any discussion of contentious ideas, so kids will be left with no context, no adult guidance, no opportunity to debate and think. Kids are not attracted to BLM because of their teachers, but their teachers could help them to think the issues through carefully, with nuance and context. Without that they will just get it from YouTube.
    When I was at school my favourite teacher was utterly reactionary, used to lambast socialists and constantly try to pick fights with left wing pupils. But the fact that he relished political arguments made him a great teacher. At no point did he indoctrinate me or anyone else, but he helped us think through our developing political views. No doubt he'd be afraid to express any views now.
    Surely the point she as making was the teaching of such political things as uncontested fact was what would be wrong, not that they could not be taught, discussed and debated?
    The reality is people will just steer clear of any discussion at all. One kid misreports what you said and you face a disciplinary.
    It's all part of the Tory idea the schools are full of leftie teachers indoctrinating the pupils
    It's so fucking stupid, only a Tory could believe it.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    So when, exactly, is "Post-COVID" going to be?

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1318661703920398337?s=20
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Scott_xP said:
    I don't think that Johnson has quite appreciated that this isn't just about Manchester. It's about the Conservatives being seen to be willing to stuff the North in general in its hour of need, and indeed anywhere north of Watford Gap. People in Liverpool and Lancashire won't be castigating Burnham for seeking a slightly better settlement than the paltry one their leaders got. No, they'll be cheering Burnham on. As are those in the North-East and Yorkshire who know they're next in the firing line, followed by the Midlands. This is a government that thinks nothing of throwing billions in lucrative contracts the way of any of the usual outsourcing suspects lining up to profit from coronavirus, in return for services that repeatedly fail to live up to their billing, yet which draws the line at settling for just a paltry £5m extra for Greater Manchester. Desperate people and businesses left to go hang. All the effort that went into winning seats in the Red Wall and promoting the fiction of Levelling Up is being undone before our eyes because Sunak can't find £5m.

    We're due an Opinium poll this weekend.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    The Tories risk a repeat of the Section 28 disaster here, trying to ban things being talked about in schools is always a bad idea. Teachers are just going to avoid any discussion of contentious ideas, so kids will be left with no context, no adult guidance, no opportunity to debate and think. Kids are not attracted to BLM because of their teachers, but their teachers could help them to think the issues through carefully, with nuance and context. Without that they will just get it from YouTube.
    When I was at school my favourite teacher was utterly reactionary, used to lambast socialists and constantly try to pick fights with left wing pupils. But the fact that he relished political arguments made him a great teacher. At no point did he indoctrinate me or anyone else, but he helped us think through our developing political views. No doubt he'd be afraid to express any views now.
    I don't believe schools should promote particular moral or political views, but they should promote civic values and mutual respect. Tackling racism as a topic is absolutely part of that.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    HYUFD said:
    Certainly more scientific than Trafalgar.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    edited October 2020
    Alistair said:

    Been spotting Betfair stupidity. In both the Alaska and Arkansas Senate race they have it as a Republican vs Dem match up. In neither state is a Democrat running. In Alaska the Republican is facing an Independent. In Arkansas Tom Cotton is facing a Libertarian opponent.

    Just lay the Republican.
    (If you’re determined to bet.)
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,315

    So when, exactly, is "Post-COVID" going to be?

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1318661703920398337?s=20

    Delusional. Covid and Brexit will define this government. There won’t be any post-anything.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    Just cast my NEC ballot. Avoided the slates - including Pidcock. I fully expect that none of my choices will be elected.

    What is exciting is that the voting system has been changed from first N past the post to AV. So less chance of a single slate getting all of the seats. However it is likely to take a week to count the ballots.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Cyclefree said:

    Yes, getting restaurants emailing me stating "working lunches" are ok indoors. Just spend five minutes at the start discussing if they want to invest in a potential new business venture and its all hunky dory.
    A friend from London that where she is (Hampstead) there is absolutely no compliance with the rule of 6 or the one household rule in any of the venues she’s been in.
    As I said last week, I can see lots of London meetings taking place at 4.30pm in the pub.

    It’s a great way around it which will help London pubs, not so much those elsewhere, such as your daughter’s.

    I do hope she is okay and can somehow hold on. As I wrote in the spring, I was due to visit Cumbria in April for a walking, eating and drinking trip with my mates.

    It is quite possible we would have stumbled across the hostelry of Ms Cyclefree Jr.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410

    Scott_xP said:
    I don't think that Johnson has quite appreciated that this isn't just about Manchester. It's about the Conservatives being seen to be willing to stuff the North in general in its hour of need, and indeed anywhere north of Watford Gap. People in Liverpool and Lancashire won't be castigating Burnham for seeking a slightly better settlement than the paltry one their leaders got. No, they'll be cheering Burnham on. As are those in the North-East and Yorkshire who know they're next in the firing line, followed by the Midlands. This is a government that thinks nothing of throwing billions in lucrative contracts the way of any of the usual outsourcing suspects lining up to profit from coronavirus, in return for services that repeatedly fail to live up to their billing, yet which draws the line at settling for just a paltry £5m extra for Greater Manchester. Desperate people and businesses left to go hang. All the effort that went into winning seats in the Red Wall and promoting the fiction of Levelling Up is being undone before our eyes because Sunak can't find £5m.

    We're due an Opinium poll this weekend.
    On the same day it was revealed £7m was spent on re-branding Highways England just 5 years after its previous re-brand.
    But yeah, yeah, Leftie teachers and that.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    NewsNight in Manchester
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    Cyclefree said:

    So when, exactly, is "Post-COVID" going to be?

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1318661703920398337?s=20

    Delusional. Covid and Brexit will define this government. There won’t be any post-anything.
    Post-apocalyse?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,700

    Cyclefree said:

    So when, exactly, is "Post-COVID" going to be?

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1318661703920398337?s=20

    Delusional. Covid and Brexit will define this government. There won’t be any post-anything.
    Post-apocalyse?
    Post-traumatic stress disorder?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398

    HYUFD said:

    I think Sunak might repeat Cameron's 2015 performance but I think Tory seats are down from 2019's high point. Fair play, they beat us good.

    I genuinely wonder if 2024 will be 2010 repeat but with Labour the largest party.

    If Labour lose in 2024 after the combined post-Brexit/ post- Covid s***show, you can hunker down for a lifetime of Conservative governments.
    People said the same after 1992, until 1997
    What is coming down the track is far, far worse than Black Wednesday. If Labour lose in 2024 it is time to board up the shop and move on.
    Who will you be voting for? :)
    I will assess the quality of my constituency candidates, and if Satan himself is standing in the Vale of Glamorgan, he gets my vote over Alun Cairns.
    I will mark you down as a maybe
  • dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I don't think that Johnson has quite appreciated that this isn't just about Manchester. It's about the Conservatives being seen to be willing to stuff the North in general in its hour of need, and indeed anywhere north of Watford Gap. People in Liverpool and Lancashire won't be castigating Burnham for seeking a slightly better settlement than the paltry one their leaders got. No, they'll be cheering Burnham on. As are those in the North-East and Yorkshire who know they're next in the firing line, followed by the Midlands. This is a government that thinks nothing of throwing billions in lucrative contracts the way of any of the usual outsourcing suspects lining up to profit from coronavirus, in return for services that repeatedly fail to live up to their billing, yet which draws the line at settling for just a paltry £5m extra for Greater Manchester. Desperate people and businesses left to go hang. All the effort that went into winning seats in the Red Wall and promoting the fiction of Levelling Up is being undone before our eyes because Sunak can't find £5m.

    We're due an Opinium poll this weekend.
    On the same day it was revealed £7m was spent on re-branding Highways England just 5 years after its previous re-brand.
    But yeah, yeah, Leftie teachers and that.
    That's the corner the government have painted themselves into.

    Every bit of wasteful or foolish spending the government has done or will do (and there will always be some, because people are human) is going to get compared with the £5m they couldn't find for Manchester. Every single one.

    Fair? Not entirely. But thems the breaks.

    And it really couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of politicians.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Went to my running club for the first time in seven months today. Was going to go last week but it was cancelled due to a covid case !
    Small groups, no squash, mandatory to carry a mask (In case of someone getting injured) nevertheless a good way to see a few friends whilst adhering to both the rules and the science :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129
    Cyclefree said:

    So when, exactly, is "Post-COVID" going to be?

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1318661703920398337?s=20

    Delusional. Covid and Brexit will define this government. There won’t be any post-anything.
    That's a rather unreasonably harsh judgement on the use of a standard cliched term. A great many things have very long lasting effects but we still permit the use of 'Post-X'. Whatever defines this government in historical terms - and I'm sure it will be those two - I think it pretty pointless to critique a label like 'Post-Covid', which at some point there will in fact be, even if it is 'Post-Peak-Covid' only.

    There's enough actual things to criticise without us getting sniffy about, in essence, political branding exercises.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    Cyclefree said:

    So when, exactly, is "Post-COVID" going to be?

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1318661703920398337?s=20

    Delusional. Covid and Brexit will define this government. There won’t be any post-anything.
    Post-apocalyse?
    Post-traumatic stress disorder?
    Lol!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    NewsNight in Manchester
    Gotta say, brilliant headline from the Mail subs.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    Sorry. Not AV - STV for the NEC.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,315
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So when, exactly, is "Post-COVID" going to be?

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1318661703920398337?s=20

    Delusional. Covid and Brexit will define this government. There won’t be any post-anything.
    That's a rather unreasonably harsh judgement on the use of a standard cliched term. A great many things have very long lasting effects but we still permit the use of 'Post-X'. Whatever defines this government in historical terms - and I'm sure it will be those two - I think it pretty pointless to critique a label like 'Post-Covid', which at some point there will in fact be, even if it is 'Post-Peak-Covid' only.

    There's enough actual things to criticise without us getting sniffy about, in essence, political branding exercises.
    I wasn’t criticising the language so much as the idea that Covid will be over any time soon so that Boris could move into other stuff. That seems to me to be optimistic at best, delusional at worst.
This discussion has been closed.