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The Johnson/Cummings power grab is in danger of undermining democracy – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,020
edited October 2020 in General
The Johnson/Cummings power grab is in danger of undermining democracy – politicalbetting.com

UK government wants to seize control from:Local authoritiesParliament (via govt by decree)Judiciary (via Judicial Review 'reforms')'Activist' lawyersDevolved administrationsImpartial civil serviceDiplomatic corps EUSee the pattern yet?The Executive Power Project https://t.co/Xuow8LLojc

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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,667
    First
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    Andy Burnham has been elevated to cult meme status, it's such a shame he is not an MP
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    Johnson is doing a great job of persuading me that he doesn't care about the North and all those voters he picked up made a bad call
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908

    Andy Burnham has been elevated to cult meme status, it's such a shame he is not an MP

    I chucked a couple of quid on him as next PM at 94/1. Weirder things have happened.
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    So this is what taking back control meant.
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    So this is what taking back control meant.

    It's becoming obvious to me that whatever control we gave up was in far better hands in Brussels than here
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,995
    Just hope Cummings will not try and make Boris Supreme Governor of the Church of England next week too
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    rkrkrk said:

    Andy Burnham has been elevated to cult meme status, it's such a shame he is not an MP

    I chucked a couple of quid on him as next PM at 94/1. Weirder things have happened.
    The next PM is likely to be a Tory.

    Probably not Sunak after he's just shafted the North.

    The Harrying of the North will not be forgotten.
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    rkrkrk said:

    Andy Burnham has been elevated to cult meme status, it's such a shame he is not an MP

    I chucked a couple of quid on him as next PM at 94/1. Weirder things have happened.
    The next PM is likely to be a Tory.

    Probably not Sunak after he's just shafted the North.

    The Harrying of the North will not be forgotten.
    I trust your judgment as it seems very spot on, unlike my own coloured by my hatred of the Tory Party. If you are predicting the end, it surely is the end.
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    Johnson is doing a great job of persuading me that he doesn't care about the North and all those voters he picked up made a bad call

    The thread header suggests he doesn't care about London either.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,174

    Andy Burnham has been elevated to cult meme status, it's such a shame he is not an MP

    Don't get carried away, he was a crap MP and a crap Minister. Ponder Mike's thread header, that should worry you more than Boris looking a dick today.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,426
    edited October 2020
    HYUFD said:

    Just hope Cummings will not try and make Boris Supreme Governor of the Church of England next week too

    I'm reminded of this.

    "The Lord Mandelson, denied the opportunity to become Foreign Secretary by the sad combination of a Prime Minister too weak to remove his Foreign Secretary and, equally, a Foreign Secretary too weak to challenge the Prime Minister, has gone around instead collecting titles and even whole Departments to add to his name.

    His title now adds up to, “The right hon. the Baron Mandelson of Foy in the county of Herefordshire and Hartlepool in the county of Durham, First Secretary of State, Lord President of the Privy Council and Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills”. It would be no surprise to wake up in the morning and find that he had become an archbishop—[Laughter]. That is exactly what happened with Cardinal Wolsey."
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    Andy Burnham has been elevated to cult meme status, it's such a shame he is not an MP

    Don't get carried away, he was a crap MP and a crap Minister. Ponder Mike's thread header, that should worry you more than Boris looking a dick today.
    I wish Burnham had won in 2015
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    Johnson is doing a great job of persuading me that he doesn't care about the North and all those voters he picked up made a bad call

    The thread header suggests he doesn't care about London either.
    They never did care about London, we saw that sadly after Johnson left.

    They will be run out of London in the next election.
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    It's obviously Cummings. The only time the PM makes a "power grab" he ends up with another discarded child who will need Eton school fees.
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    There was a Brazilian player whose signature move was to flick it up onto this head and run at speed keeping it up there...they called him the seal.

    https://youtu.be/LYlqql38XkY
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    Scott_xP said:
    No Sir Graham Brady or Chris Green on that letter.

    But I reckon that's six Lab gains in the bag as a minimum.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,995
    edited October 2020

    rkrkrk said:

    Andy Burnham has been elevated to cult meme status, it's such a shame he is not an MP

    I chucked a couple of quid on him as next PM at 94/1. Weirder things have happened.
    The next PM is likely to be a Tory.

    Probably not Sunak after he's just shafted the North.

    The Harrying of the North will not be forgotten.
    I could see the Tories losing much of the Red Wall under Sunak but then I could see them regaining southern seats like St Albans, Putney, Richmond Park, Enfield Southgate and Battersea and a few Midlands seats like Warwick and Leamington they won under Cameron but have now lost to partly make up for it
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    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Andy Burnham has been elevated to cult meme status, it's such a shame he is not an MP

    I chucked a couple of quid on him as next PM at 94/1. Weirder things have happened.
    The next PM is likely to be a Tory.

    Probably not Sunak after he's just shafted the North.

    The Harrying of the North will not be forgotten.
    I could see the Tories losing much of the Red Wall under Sunak but then I could see them regaining southern seats like St Albans, Putney, Richmond Park, Enfield Southgate and Battersea and a few Midlands seats like Warwick and Leamington they won under Cameron but have now lost under his leadership to partly make up for it
    The Tories re-taking seats in London...?
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    Scott_xP said:
    No Sir Graham Brady or Chris Green on that letter.

    But I reckon that's six Lab gains in the bag as a minimum.
    Please can we have the seat names and we can look at their majorities?
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,174

    Andy Burnham has been elevated to cult meme status, it's such a shame he is not an MP

    Don't get carried away, he was a crap MP and a crap Minister. Ponder Mike's thread header, that should worry you more than Boris looking a dick today.
    I wish Burnham had won in 2015
    Well that goes without saying. Mrs May would have got her deal through, and we would be about to embark on a BINO trade deal in January. Johnson would be a hopeless backbencher, having been sacked for being a hopeless FS and the May election would have been postponed due to Covid.
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    Threatening to take control of TfL...but why did they think that would go over well, it will turn Khan into a martyr
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    Scott_xP said:
    No Sir Graham Brady or Chris Green on that letter.

    But I reckon that's six Lab gains in the bag as a minimum.
    Yeah, Brady not on the list should worry the whips office.
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    Andy Burnham has been elevated to cult meme status, it's such a shame he is not an MP

    Don't get carried away, he was a crap MP and a crap Minister. Ponder Mike's thread header, that should worry you more than Boris looking a dick today.
    I wish Burnham had won in 2015
    Well that goes without saying. Mrs May would have got her deal through, and we would be about to embark on a BINO trade deal in January. Johnson would be a hopeless backbencher, having been sacked for being a hopeless FS and the May election would have been postponed due to Covid.
    No 2017 election and Burnham would likely have won in 2020 on a 2017-style manifesto
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,174

    Threatening to take control of TfL...but why did they think that would go over well, it will turn Khan into a martyr

    They really don't care.
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    Scott_xP said:
    No Sir Graham Brady or Chris Green on that letter.

    But I reckon that's six Lab gains in the bag as a minimum.
    "Your new Conservative MPs are standing up for your best interests by demanding that a crap settlement gets imposed on you. Can I count on your vote?"
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,995
    edited October 2020

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Andy Burnham has been elevated to cult meme status, it's such a shame he is not an MP

    I chucked a couple of quid on him as next PM at 94/1. Weirder things have happened.
    The next PM is likely to be a Tory.

    Probably not Sunak after he's just shafted the North.

    The Harrying of the North will not be forgotten.
    I could see the Tories losing much of the Red Wall under Sunak but then I could see them regaining southern seats like St Albans, Putney, Richmond Park, Enfield Southgate and Battersea and a few Midlands seats like Warwick and Leamington they won under Cameron but have now lost under his leadership to partly make up for it
    The Tories re-taking seats in London...?
    Under Sunak yes, he has an approval rating of 56% in London and 57% with Remain voters a big contrast with Boris.

    Sunak would also make the necessary compromises with the EU for a FTA most likely Boris would not eg on state aid



    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/5hz2esvj6l/TheTimes_BudgetResults_200709.pdf
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,216
    Scott_xP said:
    One of the shorter suicide notes in British politics.
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    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1318649667220066313

    You've got no chance, not with the impact that would have on house prices
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    People I know who have obeyed every letter of all the guidance as if their pets lives depended on it since March are not happy tonight, really not happy.

    These are not the usual rebellious lot, these are not people wanting to ignore what the government is telling them to do to control the virus.

    This really has cut through far deeper than many outside the region can recognise just yet.
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    Threatening to take control of TfL...but why did they think that would go over well, it will turn Khan into a martyr

    Why would anyone want control of TfL at the moment? It is going to lose billions of pounds and have frustrated customers for the next five years plus. Khan should just say yes please.
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    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Andy Burnham has been elevated to cult meme status, it's such a shame he is not an MP

    I chucked a couple of quid on him as next PM at 94/1. Weirder things have happened.
    The next PM is likely to be a Tory.

    Probably not Sunak after he's just shafted the North.

    The Harrying of the North will not be forgotten.
    I could see the Tories losing much of the Red Wall under Sunak but then I could see them regaining southern seats like St Albans, Putney, Richmond Park, Enfield Southgate and Battersea and a few Midlands seats like Warwick and Leamington they won under Cameron but have now lost under his leadership to partly make up for it
    The Tories re-taking seats in London...?
    Under Sunak yes, he has an approval rating of 56% in London and 57% with Remain voters a big contrast with Boris



    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/5hz2esvj6l/TheTimes_BudgetResults_200709.pdf
    I have the greatest respect for you HYUFD but there is little chance the Tories go anywhere but backwards in London, even in 2019 under Corbyn they gained a seat there
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    Scott_xP said:
    No Sir Graham Brady or Chris Green on that letter.

    But I reckon that's six Lab gains in the bag as a minimum.
    Please can we have the seat names and we can look at their majorities?
    Heywood & Middleton = Tory majority of 663.

    Bolton NE = Tory majority of 378

    Leigh = Tory majority of 1,965

    Bury South = Tory majority of 402

    Bury North = Tory majority of 105

    Cheadle = Tory majority of 2,336.
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    This is the mark of a Government at the end of its time, it's a John Major end of the line Government before it was swept away in a landslide.

    Of course Labour are not ready yet - but in time.
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    Scott_xP said:
    Why would voters blame Khan if central govt takes responsibility for it? I just dont get it? Surely neither party should want responsibility for TfL at the moment?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,216

    Scott_xP said:
    No Sir Graham Brady or Chris Green on that letter.

    But I reckon that's six Lab gains in the bag as a minimum.
    Please can we have the seat names and we can look at their majorities?
    Heywood & Middleton = Tory majority of 663.

    Bolton NE = Tory majority of 378

    Leigh = Tory majority of 1,965

    Bury South = Tory majority of 402

    Bury North = Tory majority of 105

    Cheadle = Tory majority of 2,336.
    Bye! Collect your pensions on the way out please.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,803
    Johnson and his puppet master Cummings are a clear and present danger to the UK . Politics is cynical but they’ve taken it to new levels and their divide and conquer strategy is despicable .
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    Scott_xP said:
    No Sir Graham Brady or Chris Green on that letter.

    But I reckon that's six Lab gains in the bag as a minimum.
    Please can we have the seat names and we can look at their majorities?
    Heywood & Middleton = Tory majority of 663.

    Bolton NE = Tory majority of 378

    Leigh = Tory majority of 1,965

    Bury South = Tory majority of 402

    Bury North = Tory majority of 105

    Cheadle = Tory majority of 2,336.
    Tiny Tory majorities, goodness me. Cheadle is Lib Dem marginal according to Google.

    Just over 2% swing to take all of those, should be easy even on a bad night.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,377

    Toby Young: "Why Does Hancock Want to Lock Up the North When Cases Are Falling?"

    A very good question.

    The answer is very simple.

    They are 'falling' from a relatively high base, they are still at a risky level.
    image

    R is still above 1 - just. A few days ago. Now it may or may not have touched 1. But that is exactly the point at which knocking the R number down 0.2 or so would have a big effect in rapidly reducing cases. And dead people.
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    Sorry clarify, Cheadle is likely to be a Lib Dem gain if the Tories do lose the seat, so five Lab gains in the bag.
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    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:
    No Sir Graham Brady or Chris Green on that letter.

    But I reckon that's six Lab gains in the bag as a minimum.
    Yeah, Brady not on the list should worry the whips office.
    No William Wragg either.
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    Scott_xP said:
    Why would voters blame Khan if central govt takes responsibility for it? I just dont get it? Surely neither party should want responsibility for TfL at the moment?
    The Tory approach to London seems to be that Londoners are idiots and will vote Khan out because it's his fault.

    Problem is that the Tories are so unpopular in London already and they're going backwards. And Bailey is hopeless.

    Even in 2019 Labour didn't really go backwards in London, there's simply no way the Tories make any progress there in 2024. I bet there are good odds on Labour/Lib Dev gains in London
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    Tory logic, impose council tax rise on London and take control and then it's Khan's fault?

    These people are idiots lol
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    OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,282
    edited October 2020

    Toby Young: "Why Does Hancock Want to Lock Up the North When Cases Are Falling?"

    A very good question.

    The answer is very simple.

    They are 'falling' from a relatively high base, they are still at a risky level.
    image

    R is still above 1 - just. A few days ago. Now it may or may not have touched 1. But that is exactly the point at which knocking the R number down 0.2 or so would have a big effect in rapidly reducing cases. And dead people.
    Yeah exactly. Get the R down to 0.8 and you might avoid a full lockdown.

    EDIT: Oh it was Toby Young. No surprises.
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    People I know who have obeyed every letter of all the guidance as if their pets lives depended on it since March are not happy tonight, really not happy.

    These are not the usual rebellious lot, these are not people wanting to ignore what the government is telling them to do to control the virus.

    This really has cut through far deeper than many outside the region can recognise just yet.

    PB Tories along to tell us it's just a bubble issue.

    I have to say fighting the North and Burnham (who is quite popular in the North from what I understand - I am sure Leigh would have stayed with Labour if he was still the MP), is an interesting approach when they're trying to hold these new seats.

    Give these voters a chance to pop back over to Labour, very kind of them
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,779

    rkrkrk said:

    Andy Burnham has been elevated to cult meme status, it's such a shame he is not an MP

    I chucked a couple of quid on him as next PM at 94/1. Weirder things have happened.
    The next PM is likely to be a Tory.

    Probably not Sunak after he's just shafted the North.

    The Harrying of the North will not be forgotten.
    If you get some Meganning too you'll be really in trouble.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,216
    nico679 said:

    Johnson and his puppet master Cummings are a clear and present danger to the UK . Politics is cynical but they’ve taken it to new levels and their divide and conquer strategy is despicable .

    Whatever they are up to, it 'aint conservatism.

    Mind you, not a surprise with Rasputin. He's not even a member.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,667
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Andy Burnham has been elevated to cult meme status, it's such a shame he is not an MP

    I chucked a couple of quid on him as next PM at 94/1. Weirder things have happened.
    The next PM is likely to be a Tory.

    Probably not Sunak after he's just shafted the North.

    The Harrying of the North will not be forgotten.
    I could see the Tories losing much of the Red Wall under Sunak but then I could see them regaining southern seats like St Albans, Putney, Richmond Park, Enfield Southgate and Battersea and a few Midlands seats like Warwick and Leamington they won under Cameron but have now lost under his leadership to partly make up for it
    The Tories re-taking seats in London...?
    Under Sunak yes, he has an approval rating of 56% in London and 57% with Remain voters a big contrast with Boris.

    Sunak would also make the necessary compromises with the EU for a FTA most likely Boris would not eg on state aid



    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/5hz2esvj6l/TheTimes_BudgetResults_200709.pdf
    I sense your loyalty has shifted from Johnson to Sunak @HYUFD
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Toby Young: "Why Does Hancock Want to Lock Up the North When Cases Are Falling?"

    A very good question.

    The answer is very simple.

    They are 'falling' from a relatively high base, they are still at a risky level.
    image

    R is still above 1 - just. A few days ago. Now it may or may not have touched 1. But that is exactly the point at which knocking the R number down 0.2 or so would have a big effect in rapidly reducing cases. And dead people.
    What do you mean? I can see from your graph that herd immunity has been reached as R has trended strongly downwards to zero.

    Don't @ me.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,377

    Scott_xP said:
    Why would voters blame Khan if central govt takes responsibility for it? I just dont get it? Surely neither party should want responsibility for TfL at the moment?
    The Tory approach to London seems to be that Londoners are idiots and will vote Khan out because it's his fault.

    Problem is that the Tories are so unpopular in London already and they're going backwards. And Bailey is hopeless.

    Even in 2019 Labour didn't really go backwards in London, there's simply no way the Tories make any progress there in 2024. I bet there are good odds on Labour/Lib Dev gains in London
    If the ridership on TfL is permanently reduced by home working and people moving out of Central London in consequence, then who should pay the increase in the difference between fares and operational costs?

    MY understanding is that the biggest crash in income is in annual tickets - that used to be a nice, reliable source of income for TfL.... Multi month ones as well.....
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    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1318638198193590273

    Khan was on track to run a surplus in a few years without this grant, before COVID. He was a lot more economically competent than Johnson ever was.

    Of course we can forget how much of TfL is covered by fares compared to every other country and this would still be nowhere close to that - Tories should be proud
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    Scott_xP said:
    Why would voters blame Khan if central govt takes responsibility for it? I just dont get it? Surely neither party should want responsibility for TfL at the moment?
    The Tory approach to London seems to be that Londoners are idiots and will vote Khan out because it's his fault.

    Problem is that the Tories are so unpopular in London already and they're going backwards. And Bailey is hopeless.

    Even in 2019 Labour didn't really go backwards in London, there's simply no way the Tories make any progress there in 2024. I bet there are good odds on Labour/Lib Dev gains in London
    The £15 a day congestion charge is £3k per year for a car commuter. There will be plenty of those in Tory seats in London outer suburbs and even across the south east. Not too mention it is so far off the scale of laffer curve in terms of net govt tax receipts that they will need to tax everyone across the country more to get some of the lost income tax and VAT back.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,377
    Alistair said:

    Toby Young: "Why Does Hancock Want to Lock Up the North When Cases Are Falling?"

    A very good question.

    The answer is very simple.

    They are 'falling' from a relatively high base, they are still at a risky level.
    image

    R is still above 1 - just. A few days ago. Now it may or may not have touched 1. But that is exactly the point at which knocking the R number down 0.2 or so would have a big effect in rapidly reducing cases. And dead people.
    What do you mean? I can see from your graph that herd immunity has been reached as R has trended strongly downwards to zero.

    Don't @ me.
    Unleash the KrakenKimonoed Lawyer With The Baseball Bat!
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    Scott_xP said:
    Why would voters blame Khan if central govt takes responsibility for it? I just dont get it? Surely neither party should want responsibility for TfL at the moment?
    The Tory approach to London seems to be that Londoners are idiots and will vote Khan out because it's his fault.

    Problem is that the Tories are so unpopular in London already and they're going backwards. And Bailey is hopeless.

    Even in 2019 Labour didn't really go backwards in London, there's simply no way the Tories make any progress there in 2024. I bet there are good odds on Labour/Lib Dev gains in London
    If the ridership on TfL is permanently reduced by home working and people moving out of Central London in consequence, then who should pay the increase in the difference between fares and operational costs?

    MY understanding is that the biggest crash in income is in annual tickets - that used to be a nice, reliable source of income for TfL.... Multi month ones as well.....
    Well it's going to end up being the taxpayer unless you support privatising TfL where it will inevitably go bust and cost more anyway.

    But my question remains, why would Londoners blame Khan for that?
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,667
    Is the high early voting in Texas good for the Dems or the GOP? Or can we simply not know?
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    Scott_xP said:
    You have to wonder why in normal times London is getting £700m per year in subsidy for the public transport network.

    London has just over 3 times the population of Manchester.

    Does Manchester get £230m / year subsidy for the public transport ?

    Does it bollocks.

    Metrolink has to break even and the buses are privatised.
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    Scott_xP said:
    Why would voters blame Khan if central govt takes responsibility for it? I just dont get it? Surely neither party should want responsibility for TfL at the moment?
    The Tory approach to London seems to be that Londoners are idiots and will vote Khan out because it's his fault.

    Problem is that the Tories are so unpopular in London already and they're going backwards. And Bailey is hopeless.

    Even in 2019 Labour didn't really go backwards in London, there's simply no way the Tories make any progress there in 2024. I bet there are good odds on Labour/Lib Dev gains in London
    The £15 a day congestion charge is £3k per year for a car commuter. There will be plenty of those in Tory seats in London outer suburbs and even across the south east. Not too mention it is so far off the scale of laffer curve in terms of net govt tax receipts that they will need to tax everyone across the country more to get some of the lost income tax and VAT back.
    Aren't the Tories proposing to extend this to the whole of London, in which case I ask again: why would Londoners blame Khan for that?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744
    edited October 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    Hmm. It does seem to me that Burnham was playing a very high stakes game in acting as though our regional mayors have the level of authority of an american State Governor and was disabused of that notion, but his motivation was in the right place and having stuck to its guns on its centralised authority, the UK government really didn't need to follow up by twisting the knife (in this metaphor the gun presumably has a bayonet) as it seems to have done, to little obvious benefit.

    People will look for grievance and elevate division regardless as it makes a good story, and I do think regional divisions have been overplayed in recent weeks, but from the headlines the government seems to have made it more of a reality for some reason.
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    Forcing Khan to do something is not going to make Bailey get elected, these people are nuts
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    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Andy Burnham has been elevated to cult meme status, it's such a shame he is not an MP

    I chucked a couple of quid on him as next PM at 94/1. Weirder things have happened.
    The next PM is likely to be a Tory.

    Probably not Sunak after he's just shafted the North.

    The Harrying of the North will not be forgotten.
    I could see the Tories losing much of the Red Wall under Sunak but then I could see them regaining southern seats like St Albans, Putney, Richmond Park, Enfield Southgate and Battersea and a few Midlands seats like Warwick and Leamington they won under Cameron but have now lost under his leadership to partly make up for it
    The Tories re-taking seats in London...?
    Under Sunak yes, he has an approval rating of 56% in London and 57% with Remain voters a big contrast with Boris.

    Sunak would also make the necessary compromises with the EU for a FTA most likely Boris would not eg on state aid



    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/5hz2esvj6l/TheTimes_BudgetResults_200709.pdf
    I sense your loyalty has shifted from Johnson to Sunak @HYUFD
    It's what the focus groups tell him.

    Of course Sunak's numbers are also trending down - and Brown didn't stay popular for long
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,174

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Andy Burnham has been elevated to cult meme status, it's such a shame he is not an MP

    I chucked a couple of quid on him as next PM at 94/1. Weirder things have happened.
    The next PM is likely to be a Tory.

    Probably not Sunak after he's just shafted the North.

    The Harrying of the North will not be forgotten.
    I could see the Tories losing much of the Red Wall under Sunak but then I could see them regaining southern seats like St Albans, Putney, Richmond Park, Enfield Southgate and Battersea and a few Midlands seats like Warwick and Leamington they won under Cameron but have now lost under his leadership to partly make up for it
    The Tories re-taking seats in London...?
    Under Sunak yes, he has an approval rating of 56% in London and 57% with Remain voters a big contrast with Boris.

    Sunak would also make the necessary compromises with the EU for a FTA most likely Boris would not eg on state aid



    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/5hz2esvj6l/TheTimes_BudgetResults_200709.pdf
    I sense your loyalty has shifted from Johnson to Sunak @HYUFD
    Sunak needs to throw Johnson under the bus sooner rather than later. Sunak's window of opportunity is closing fast, by Christmas he will be neck deep in economic ordure.
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    Scott_xP said:
    You have to wonder why in normal times London is getting £700m per year in subsidy for the public transport network.

    London has just over 3 times the population of Manchester.

    Does Manchester get £230m / year subsidy for the public transport ?

    Does it bollocks.

    Metrolink has to break even and the buses are privatised.
    I would increase funding for all councils and public transport networks, not cut London's.

    London's is still absolutely minimal compared to any other comparable network abroad
  • Options

    Scott_xP said:
    Why would voters blame Khan if central govt takes responsibility for it? I just dont get it? Surely neither party should want responsibility for TfL at the moment?
    The Tory approach to London seems to be that Londoners are idiots and will vote Khan out because it's his fault.

    Problem is that the Tories are so unpopular in London already and they're going backwards. And Bailey is hopeless.

    Even in 2019 Labour didn't really go backwards in London, there's simply no way the Tories make any progress there in 2024. I bet there are good odds on Labour/Lib Dev gains in London
    The £15 a day congestion charge is £3k per year for a car commuter. There will be plenty of those in Tory seats in London outer suburbs and even across the south east. Not too mention it is so far off the scale of laffer curve in terms of net govt tax receipts that they will need to tax everyone across the country more to get some of the lost income tax and VAT back.
    Aren't the Tories proposing to extend this to the whole of London, in which case I ask again: why would Londoners blame Khan for that?
    Between the North and South circular. Ludicrous, will cost tens of thousands of jobs. If they want such a scheme, something like £5 per day with an option to buy a year for £250 would be the right kind of pricing.
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    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Andy Burnham has been elevated to cult meme status, it's such a shame he is not an MP

    I chucked a couple of quid on him as next PM at 94/1. Weirder things have happened.
    The next PM is likely to be a Tory.

    Probably not Sunak after he's just shafted the North.

    The Harrying of the North will not be forgotten.
    I could see the Tories losing much of the Red Wall under Sunak but then I could see them regaining southern seats like St Albans, Putney, Richmond Park, Enfield Southgate and Battersea and a few Midlands seats like Warwick and Leamington they won under Cameron but have now lost under his leadership to partly make up for it
    The Tories re-taking seats in London...?
    Under Sunak yes, he has an approval rating of 56% in London and 57% with Remain voters a big contrast with Boris.

    Sunak would also make the necessary compromises with the EU for a FTA most likely Boris would not eg on state aid



    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/5hz2esvj6l/TheTimes_BudgetResults_200709.pdf
    I sense your loyalty has shifted from Johnson to Sunak @HYUFD
    Sunak needs to throw Johnson under the bus sooner rather than later. Sunak's window of opportunity is closing fast, by Christmas he will be neck deep in economic ordure.
    Surely he can't avoid the fate of Brown now.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710
    Is there anyone the Johnson regime isn't at war with?
    • Scotland & Wales
    • All parties in Northern Ireland
    • London
    • the North of England
    • Europe
    • Other Tories
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,720
    HYUFD said:

    Just hope Cummings will not try and make Boris Supreme Governor of the Church of England next week too

    Why not? It'sentirely of a tune with your devotion to the Henrician settlement.
  • Options
    *Tin foil hat on*

    Cummings is a Labour plant

    *Tin foil hat off*
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744

    Is the high early voting in Texas good for the Dems or the GOP? Or can we simply not know?
    Lots of early voting seems like one of those electoral events where people might as well just guess but is treated in the moment as clearly hugely significant for one side. Like here when every election people get massively excited by reports of great turnout, expecially among young people, and what that means, and then at the end of the night turns out turnout was down and Boris has a huge majority/
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    Are there a lot of votes to be won on the CofE issue? Seems a bit fringe to me.

    This is the issue, you can win one election (well we will see with Trump) on stick it to the man, throw out the rules but then you have to win again
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,059

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Andy Burnham has been elevated to cult meme status, it's such a shame he is not an MP

    I chucked a couple of quid on him as next PM at 94/1. Weirder things have happened.
    The next PM is likely to be a Tory.

    Probably not Sunak after he's just shafted the North.

    The Harrying of the North will not be forgotten.
    I could see the Tories losing much of the Red Wall under Sunak but then I could see them regaining southern seats like St Albans, Putney, Richmond Park, Enfield Southgate and Battersea and a few Midlands seats like Warwick and Leamington they won under Cameron but have now lost under his leadership to partly make up for it
    The Tories re-taking seats in London...?
    Under Sunak yes, he has an approval rating of 56% in London and 57% with Remain voters a big contrast with Boris.

    Sunak would also make the necessary compromises with the EU for a FTA most likely Boris would not eg on state aid



    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/5hz2esvj6l/TheTimes_BudgetResults_200709.pdf
    I sense your loyalty has shifted from Johnson to Sunak @HYUFD
    Sunak needs to throw Johnson under the bus sooner rather than later. Sunak's window of opportunity is closing fast, by Christmas he will be neck deep in economic ordure.
    Anyone planning to move against Boris needs to make sure he owns the Brexit betrayal/car crash.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744

    *Tin foil hat on*

    Cummings is a Labour plant

    *Tin foil hat off*

    Tin foil is right. Even a conspiracy theorist would presumably blanche at the idea this plant needed to help Boris get a huge majority before imploding. Even if as a plan the goal were to destroy Corbyn he didn't need to have the Tories win quite so much.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,995

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Andy Burnham has been elevated to cult meme status, it's such a shame he is not an MP

    I chucked a couple of quid on him as next PM at 94/1. Weirder things have happened.
    The next PM is likely to be a Tory.

    Probably not Sunak after he's just shafted the North.

    The Harrying of the North will not be forgotten.
    I could see the Tories losing much of the Red Wall under Sunak but then I could see them regaining southern seats like St Albans, Putney, Richmond Park, Enfield Southgate and Battersea and a few Midlands seats like Warwick and Leamington they won under Cameron but have now lost under his leadership to partly make up for it
    The Tories re-taking seats in London...?
    Under Sunak yes, he has an approval rating of 56% in London and 57% with Remain voters a big contrast with Boris.

    Sunak would also make the necessary compromises with the EU for a FTA most likely Boris would not eg on state aid



    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/5hz2esvj6l/TheTimes_BudgetResults_200709.pdf
    I sense your loyalty has shifted from Johnson to Sunak @HYUFD
    If we go to No Deal my feeling is that will be hard for Boris to sustain for too long
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited October 2020
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Andy Burnham has been elevated to cult meme status, it's such a shame he is not an MP

    I chucked a couple of quid on him as next PM at 94/1. Weirder things have happened.
    The next PM is likely to be a Tory.

    Probably not Sunak after he's just shafted the North.

    The Harrying of the North will not be forgotten.
    I could see the Tories losing much of the Red Wall under Sunak but then I could see them regaining southern seats like St Albans, Putney, Richmond Park, Enfield Southgate and Battersea and a few Midlands seats like Warwick and Leamington they won under Cameron but have now lost under his leadership to partly make up for it
    The Tories re-taking seats in London...?
    Under Sunak yes, he has an approval rating of 56% in London and 57% with Remain voters a big contrast with Boris.

    Sunak would also make the necessary compromises with the EU for a FTA most likely Boris would not eg on state aid



    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/5hz2esvj6l/TheTimes_BudgetResults_200709.pdf
    I sense your loyalty has shifted from Johnson to Sunak @HYUFD
    If we go to No Deal my feeling is that will be hard for Boris to sustain for too long
    My sense is HYUFD has heard moves
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Andy Burnham has been elevated to cult meme status, it's such a shame he is not an MP

    I chucked a couple of quid on him as next PM at 94/1. Weirder things have happened.
    The next PM is likely to be a Tory.

    Probably not Sunak after he's just shafted the North.

    The Harrying of the North will not be forgotten.
    I could see the Tories losing much of the Red Wall under Sunak but then I could see them regaining southern seats like St Albans, Putney, Richmond Park, Enfield Southgate and Battersea and a few Midlands seats like Warwick and Leamington they won under Cameron but have now lost under his leadership to partly make up for it
    The Tories re-taking seats in London...?
    Under Sunak yes, he has an approval rating of 56% in London and 57% with Remain voters a big contrast with Boris.

    Sunak would also make the necessary compromises with the EU for a FTA most likely Boris would not eg on state aid



    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/5hz2esvj6l/TheTimes_BudgetResults_200709.pdf
    I sense your loyalty has shifted from Johnson to Sunak @HYUFD
    Sunak needs to throw Johnson under the bus sooner rather than later. Sunak's window of opportunity is closing fast, by Christmas he will be neck deep in economic ordure.
    He would be kicked out of the party before he even got to the leadership contest!
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,174

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Andy Burnham has been elevated to cult meme status, it's such a shame he is not an MP

    I chucked a couple of quid on him as next PM at 94/1. Weirder things have happened.
    The next PM is likely to be a Tory.

    Probably not Sunak after he's just shafted the North.

    The Harrying of the North will not be forgotten.
    I could see the Tories losing much of the Red Wall under Sunak but then I could see them regaining southern seats like St Albans, Putney, Richmond Park, Enfield Southgate and Battersea and a few Midlands seats like Warwick and Leamington they won under Cameron but have now lost under his leadership to partly make up for it
    The Tories re-taking seats in London...?
    Under Sunak yes, he has an approval rating of 56% in London and 57% with Remain voters a big contrast with Boris.

    Sunak would also make the necessary compromises with the EU for a FTA most likely Boris would not eg on state aid



    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/5hz2esvj6l/TheTimes_BudgetResults_200709.pdf
    I sense your loyalty has shifted from Johnson to Sunak @HYUFD
    Sunak needs to throw Johnson under the bus sooner rather than later. Sunak's window of opportunity is closing fast, by Christmas he will be neck deep in economic ordure.
    Anyone planning to move against Boris needs to make sure he owns the Brexit betrayal/car crash.
    So January 2nd? Might be too late!
  • Options
    Is Sunak likely to win a leadership contest? I know very little with how he stands with party members, is he likely to run?
  • Options
    guybrushguybrush Posts: 237
    Why would the Government want responsibility for running TfL? Every time the Northern line goes down, the buck would stop with the DfT.

    Kahn would be able to turbo charge his victim status, and get in the standard every week attacking the government for f-ing things up and the inevitable strikes.

    Might not be the worst thing in the world for the mayoralty actually, if the DfT is able to go full austerity and cut costs to the bone (and take the inevitable industrial action) with the cover of an 80 seat tory majority. Then a future labour gov can devolve a profitable organisation back to the GLA.
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    Scott_xP said:
    You have to wonder why in normal times London is getting £700m per year in subsidy for the public transport network.

    London has just over 3 times the population of Manchester.

    Does Manchester get £230m / year subsidy for the public transport ?

    Does it bollocks.

    Metrolink has to break even and the buses are privatised.
    I would increase funding for all councils and public transport networks, not cut London's.

    London's is still absolutely minimal compared to any other comparable network abroad
    Agreed

    100%

    But the southern media, southern government with no power in the north none of this will ever change.

    But it explains the huge divide in this country.
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    I find it hard to believe that anyone in the current cabinet can come away from Brexit untarnished
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744

    Scott_xP said:
    Why would voters blame Khan if central govt takes responsibility for it? I just dont get it? Surely neither party should want responsibility for TfL at the moment?
    Who gets blame for something is likely to be determined by how popular they are, or rather how unpopular they are.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Andy Burnham has been elevated to cult meme status, it's such a shame he is not an MP

    I chucked a couple of quid on him as next PM at 94/1. Weirder things have happened.
    The next PM is likely to be a Tory.

    Probably not Sunak after he's just shafted the North.

    The Harrying of the North will not be forgotten.
    I could see the Tories losing much of the Red Wall under Sunak but then I could see them regaining southern seats like St Albans, Putney, Richmond Park, Enfield Southgate and Battersea and a few Midlands seats like Warwick and Leamington they won under Cameron but have now lost under his leadership to partly make up for it
    The Tories re-taking seats in London...?
    Under Sunak yes, he has an approval rating of 56% in London and 57% with Remain voters a big contrast with Boris.

    Sunak would also make the necessary compromises with the EU for a FTA most likely Boris would not eg on state aid



    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/5hz2esvj6l/TheTimes_BudgetResults_200709.pdf
    Had a high approval rating in early July. That was cut-price-Dishy Rishi, not Stingy Sunak.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,280
    Rashford treating the PSG defence like a government minister.
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited October 2020

    Scott_xP said:
    You have to wonder why in normal times London is getting £700m per year in subsidy for the public transport network.

    London has just over 3 times the population of Manchester.

    Does Manchester get £230m / year subsidy for the public transport ?

    Does it bollocks.

    Metrolink has to break even and the buses are privatised.
    I would increase funding for all councils and public transport networks, not cut London's.

    London's is still absolutely minimal compared to any other comparable network abroad
    Agreed

    100%

    But the southern media, southern government with no power in the north none of this will ever change.

    But it explains the huge divide in this country.
    We need a proper Labour Government with a federal UK, which is only going to happen if Labour is forced into it so...

    Labour minority Government with C&S.

    I can absolutely see why the North voted Tory in 2019 - but they have to be nuts to vote for them again.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205

    Scott_xP said:
    No Sir Graham Brady or Chris Green on that letter.

    But I reckon that's six Lab gains in the bag as a minimum.
    Please can we have the seat names and we can look at their majorities?
    Heywood & Middleton = Tory majority of 663.

    Bolton NE = Tory majority of 378

    Leigh = Tory majority of 1,965

    Bury South = Tory majority of 402

    Bury North = Tory majority of 105

    Cheadle = Tory majority of 2,336.
    That’s 6 MPs worried about their jobs.
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    DavidL said:

    Rashford treating the PSG defence like a government minister.

    He's recorded a video and posted it on Twitter?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,995
    edited October 2020

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Andy Burnham has been elevated to cult meme status, it's such a shame he is not an MP

    I chucked a couple of quid on him as next PM at 94/1. Weirder things have happened.
    The next PM is likely to be a Tory.

    Probably not Sunak after he's just shafted the North.

    The Harrying of the North will not be forgotten.
    I could see the Tories losing much of the Red Wall under Sunak but then I could see them regaining southern seats like St Albans, Putney, Richmond Park, Enfield Southgate and Battersea and a few Midlands seats like Warwick and Leamington they won under Cameron but have now lost under his leadership to partly make up for it
    The Tories re-taking seats in London...?
    Under Sunak yes, he has an approval rating of 56% in London and 57% with Remain voters a big contrast with Boris



    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/5hz2esvj6l/TheTimes_BudgetResults_200709.pdf
    I have the greatest respect for you HYUFD but there is little chance the Tories go anywhere but backwards in London, even in 2019 under Corbyn they gained a seat there
    The comparison would be election 1992, with Sunak as Major and Boris as Thatcher, No Deal his Poll Tax and Starmer as Kinnock.

    Many current Tory seats in the North and Wales and Midlands were won by Kinnock in 1992 but lots of London Labour seats and a few southern Labour and LD seats like St Albans and Canterbury and Oxford West and Abingdon were won by Major in that same election
This discussion has been closed.