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The battle for the White House – Trump’s fight to retain the female vote – politicalbetting.com

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  • Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Glad I'm moving to Scotland then

    I just don't see how the nascent Scottish state funds public services - several businessmen I deal with/have dealt with in Scotland confessed to me, unprompted, that they'd be on the motorway to England if it ever went indy....IF they could sell their houses.
    Sounds like project fear to me. Believe in Scotland.
    Its not like Brexit, where a handful of business CEOs said this. I deal with SMEs. It would be wholesale. IF house prices didn't collapse.

    I'll helpfully advise you that if the case for the Union only has this kind of thing in the locker, it's done.
    As it should be. Fear will only hold people back so long.

    If you believe in Britain then say why. Loudly and proudly.

    Otherwise its just time to put the union out of its misery.
    The PM doesn't believe in Britain. A border down the Irish Sea was already a big fuck you to the union.
    What border down the Irish Sea? When was it implemented?

    Devolution already existed before Brexit.
    Don't be obtuse. The border down the Irish Sea that he committed the UK to create. The border down the Irish Sea that won a majority of 80 at the General Election.
    You're the one being obtuse. This is what he said during the election campaign.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7NFfUOJwDE

    He's stuck to his word.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    PB Tories are completely rattled, glorious

    You don't half talk some rubbish....People are quite rightly pointing out the flaw in an idea. Many of the wiser posters also pointed out the flaw in SAGE advice to only test hospital admissions, that masks didn't work and therefore the public should not be told to wear them, etc.

    Proposing a policy that you can't evaluate and that your guess-estimate is an order of magnitude different between the upper and lower bound is quite rightly being pointed out as not very wise.
    I think the bigger problem is that the advice was only made on medical grounds. SAGE aren't there to consider the effects on anything other than reducing the infection rate. Hence they advise, and the politicians decide.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    tlg86 said:

    When the scientists come and tell you that a measure will save between 3k and 107k lives....I want them to go away and come back when they have a much better estimate, before I can make an informed decision.

    And, also, is it a net figure.
    Net? There is scope for a Gross figure? Those who died and were reanimated as Zombies can be deducted from the Gross Total?
    People die of things other than COVID.
  • IPSOS shows a huge lead for Independence.

    Congratulations to BoJo for enabling it - it will now be an untenable position to not have another Indy Ref in this Parliament.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    MaxPB said:

    If Boris does it, does he suddenly become right?
    If Boris does it, it will either not work or be for more than 2 weeks with work and schools open.

    2 week circuit break with work and schools open will do as much to defeat the virus than skipping one cookie will do to defeat obesity.
    Tell me: is a "2 week circuit breaker with work and schools open" what Keir proposed, because I don't think it was.
    Yes it is. Two or three weeks, keep the schools open. It's pointless gesture politics that will destroy thousands of businesses.
    Well you're completely wrong. He called for a circuit breaker of "at least" 2 weeks, with coincidence with the half-term holidays. He also called for non-essential businesses to close.

    So @Philip_Thompson's guff about "2 week lockdown with work and schools open will do nothing" was just complete bollocks all round.
  • Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Glad I'm moving to Scotland then

    I just don't see how the nascent Scottish state funds public services - several businessmen I deal with/have dealt with in Scotland confessed to me, unprompted, that they'd be on the motorway to England if it ever went indy....IF they could sell their houses.
    Sounds like project fear to me. Believe in Scotland.
    Its not like Brexit, where a handful of business CEOs said this. I deal with SMEs. It would be wholesale. IF house prices didn't collapse.

    I'll helpfully advise you that if the case for the Union only has this kind of thing in the locker, it's done.
    As it should be. Fear will only hold people back so long.

    If you believe in Britain then say why. Loudly and proudly.

    Otherwise its just time to put the union out of its misery.
    The PM doesn't believe in Britain. A border down the Irish Sea was already a big fuck you to the union.
    What border down the Irish Sea? When was it implemented?

    Devolution already existed before Brexit.
    Don't be obtuse. The border down the Irish Sea that he committed the UK to create. The border down the Irish Sea that won a majority of 80 at the General Election.
    You're the one being obtuse. This is what he said during the election campaign.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7NFfUOJwDE

    He's stuck to his word.
    No he didn't. This is tragic Philip, you're spinning so much I wonder if you could do my laundry at the same time
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    tlg86 said:

    When the scientists come and tell you that a measure will save between 3k and 107k lives....I want them to go away and come back when they have a much better estimate, before I can make an informed decision.

    And, also, is it a net figure.
    Net? There is scope for a Gross figure? Those who died and were reanimated as Zombies can be deducted from the Gross Total?
    Didn't we find around 10k Covid survivors down the back of the sofa in June/July? The fatality figure dropped from circa 50k to circa 40k.
  • MaxPB said:

    PB Tories are completely rattled, glorious

    Just because you keep saying it, doesn't make it true. Starmer is playing politics with a national crisis. His solution does nothing and was rightly rejected by the government.

    You support the policy but have yet to explain by which mechanism it would work.
    BoJo will implement the policy soon and you will be praising it then
  • PB Tories are completely rattled, glorious

    You don't half talk some rubbish....People are quite rightly pointing out the flaw in an idea. Many of the wiser posters also pointed out the flaw in SAGE advice to only test hospital admissions, that masks didn't work and therefore the public should not be told to wear them, etc.

    Proposing a policy that you can't evaluate and that your guess-estimate is an order of magnitude different between the upper and lower bound is quite rightly being pointed out as not very wise.
    Horse has become a total Starmer devotee just as he was with Corbyn a few months ago
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,103
    edited October 2020
    RobD said:

    PB Tories are completely rattled, glorious

    You don't half talk some rubbish....People are quite rightly pointing out the flaw in an idea. Many of the wiser posters also pointed out the flaw in SAGE advice to only test hospital admissions, that masks didn't work and therefore the public should not be told to wear them, etc.

    Proposing a policy that you can't evaluate and that your guess-estimate is an order of magnitude different between the upper and lower bound is quite rightly being pointed out as not very wise.
    I think the bigger problem is that the advice was only made on medical grounds. SAGE aren't there to consider the effects on anything other than reducing the infection rate. Hence they advise, and the politicians decide.
    There is of course that as well, but even on the purely medical grounds, I genuinely can't quite believe a load of scientists have proposed a measure that they can't evaluate and clearly their model has spat out total bollocks for its effectiveness.

    Imagine if they proposed giving everybody the Oxford vaccine now, not knowing if it actually works and they said well our model has estimated it might work between 1% and 99%. They would quite rightly be told to jog on.
  • Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Glad I'm moving to Scotland then

    I just don't see how the nascent Scottish state funds public services - several businessmen I deal with/have dealt with in Scotland confessed to me, unprompted, that they'd be on the motorway to England if it ever went indy....IF they could sell their houses.
    Sounds like project fear to me. Believe in Scotland.
    Its not like Brexit, where a handful of business CEOs said this. I deal with SMEs. It would be wholesale. IF house prices didn't collapse.

    I'll helpfully advise you that if the case for the Union only has this kind of thing in the locker, it's done.
    As it should be. Fear will only hold people back so long.

    If you believe in Britain then say why. Loudly and proudly.

    Otherwise its just time to put the union out of its misery.
    The PM doesn't believe in Britain. A border down the Irish Sea was already a big fuck you to the union.
    What border down the Irish Sea? When was it implemented?

    Devolution already existed before Brexit.
    Don't be obtuse. The border down the Irish Sea that he committed the UK to create. The border down the Irish Sea that won a majority of 80 at the General Election.
    You're the one being obtuse. This is what he said during the election campaign.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7NFfUOJwDE

    He's stuck to his word.
    No he didn't. This is tragic Philip, you're spinning so much I wonder if you could do my laundry at the same time
    Go on then, real world terms please show me what real world "border" has actually been implemented. 🙄🙄🙄
  • Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Glad I'm moving to Scotland then

    I just don't see how the nascent Scottish state funds public services - several businessmen I deal with/have dealt with in Scotland confessed to me, unprompted, that they'd be on the motorway to England if it ever went indy....IF they could sell their houses.
    Sounds like project fear to me. Believe in Scotland.
    Its not like Brexit, where a handful of business CEOs said this. I deal with SMEs. It would be wholesale. IF house prices didn't collapse.

    I'll helpfully advise you that if the case for the Union only has this kind of thing in the locker, it's done.
    As it should be. Fear will only hold people back so long.

    If you believe in Britain then say why. Loudly and proudly.

    Otherwise its just time to put the union out of its misery.
    The PM doesn't believe in Britain. A border down the Irish Sea was already a big fuck you to the union.
    What border down the Irish Sea? When was it implemented?

    Devolution already existed before Brexit.
    Don't be obtuse. The border down the Irish Sea that he committed the UK to create. The border down the Irish Sea that won a majority of 80 at the General Election.
    You're the one being obtuse. This is what he said during the election campaign.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7NFfUOJwDE

    He's stuck to his word.
    Indeed. He absolutely didn't then sign a treaty sticking a border down the Irish Sea. Nor did his government then publish the details of all the new customs processes required to move stuff within the UK

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/moving-goods-under-the-northern-ireland-protocol/moving-goods-under-the-northern-ireland-protocol-section-two-moving-goods-from-great-britain-to-northern-ireland
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2020

    MaxPB said:

    If Boris does it, does he suddenly become right?
    If Boris does it, it will either not work or be for more than 2 weeks with work and schools open.

    2 week circuit break with work and schools open will do as much to defeat the virus than skipping one cookie will do to defeat obesity.
    Tell me: is a "2 week circuit breaker with work and schools open" what Keir proposed, because I don't think it was.
    Yes it is. Two or three weeks, keep the schools open. It's pointless gesture politics that will destroy thousands of businesses.
    Well you're completely wrong. He called for a circuit breaker of "at least" 2 weeks, with coincidence with the half-term holidays. He also called for non-essential businesses to close.

    So @Philip_Thompson's guff about "2 week lockdown with work and schools open will do nothing" was just complete bollocks all round.
    Does half term last at least 2 weeks? Or would schools be open during that 2 weeks?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    RobD said:

    PB Tories are completely rattled, glorious

    You don't half talk some rubbish....People are quite rightly pointing out the flaw in an idea. Many of the wiser posters also pointed out the flaw in SAGE advice to only test hospital admissions, that masks didn't work and therefore the public should not be told to wear them, etc.

    Proposing a policy that you can't evaluate and that your guess-estimate is an order of magnitude different between the upper and lower bound is quite rightly being pointed out as not very wise.
    I think the bigger problem is that the advice was only made on medical grounds. SAGE aren't there to consider the effects on anything other than reducing the infection rate. Hence they advise, and the politicians decide.
    Yes, that's a huge problem. The remit doesn't cover the effects of lockdown. There is no doubt that a lockdown wil reduce the infection rate, but it will also destroy thousands of businesses and put millions of people out of work. It will also only defer infections to the future because the cause of the exponential rise in infections won't be addressed by a lockdown once it ends.
  • Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Glad I'm moving to Scotland then

    I just don't see how the nascent Scottish state funds public services - several businessmen I deal with/have dealt with in Scotland confessed to me, unprompted, that they'd be on the motorway to England if it ever went indy....IF they could sell their houses.
    Sounds like project fear to me. Believe in Scotland.
    Its not like Brexit, where a handful of business CEOs said this. I deal with SMEs. It would be wholesale. IF house prices didn't collapse.

    I'll helpfully advise you that if the case for the Union only has this kind of thing in the locker, it's done.
    As it should be. Fear will only hold people back so long.

    If you believe in Britain then say why. Loudly and proudly.

    Otherwise its just time to put the union out of its misery.
    The PM doesn't believe in Britain. A border down the Irish Sea was already a big fuck you to the union.
    What border down the Irish Sea? When was it implemented?

    Devolution already existed before Brexit.
    Don't be obtuse. The border down the Irish Sea that he committed the UK to create. The border down the Irish Sea that won a majority of 80 at the General Election.
    You're the one being obtuse. This is what he said during the election campaign.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7NFfUOJwDE

    He's stuck to his word.
    No he didn't. This is tragic Philip, you're spinning so much I wonder if you could do my laundry at the same time
    Nobody on this forum is spinning more than yourself

  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    PB Tories are completely rattled, glorious

    You don't half talk some rubbish....People are quite rightly pointing out the flaw in an idea. Many of the wiser posters also pointed out the flaw in SAGE advice to only test hospital admissions, that masks didn't work and therefore the public should not be told to wear them, etc.
    I thought PMQs today was pretty even. Which is a good result for Johnson.

    This is becoming an argument over targeted lockdowns versus national lockdowns.

    If the government was intending to go full lockdown at some point then surely they wouldn`t allow a narrative to develop that it is Starmer`s idea. They could have done this easily yesterday along the lines of "At last! The leader of the opposition has come off the fence and promised to support something".

    I think they will stick with targeted lockdowns. Starmer has made this even more likely. We have to establish the limits to liberty that we will tolerate in this country, and Tier 3 local lockdowns may be it.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067

    Johnson absolutely terrible today, Keir has walked all over him

    PB needs to wait for @Big_G_NorthWales’s analysis before calling it! 😂😂
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    PB Tories are completely rattled, glorious

    You don't half talk some rubbish....People are quite rightly pointing out the flaw in an idea. Many of the wiser posters also pointed out the flaw in SAGE advice to only test hospital admissions, that masks didn't work and therefore the public should not be told to wear them, etc.

    Proposing a policy that you can't evaluate and that your guess-estimate is an order of magnitude different between the upper and lower bound is quite rightly being pointed out as not very wise.
    Horse has become a total Starmer devotee just as he was with Corbyn a few months ago
    Pots, kettles etc!
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    murali_s said:

    He is of course right, despite what the Tory loons on here say.

    I thought following the scientific evidence was the Government strategy. You just don’t know with this lot - strategy changes every day. What an shower this Government is led by a lying, “full of shit” buffoon.
    PB Tories are rattled and polls will show a Labour lead soon
    "Go back to your constituencies and prepare for government!"

    ;)
  • IPSOS shows a huge lead for Independence.

    Congratulations to BoJo for enabling it - it will now be an untenable position to not have another Indy Ref in this Parliament.

    And ends hope of a labour government
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    MaxPB said:

    If Boris does it, does he suddenly become right?
    If Boris does it, it will either not work or be for more than 2 weeks with work and schools open.

    2 week circuit break with work and schools open will do as much to defeat the virus than skipping one cookie will do to defeat obesity.
    Tell me: is a "2 week circuit breaker with work and schools open" what Keir proposed, because I don't think it was.
    Yes it is. Two or three weeks, keep the schools open. It's pointless gesture politics that will destroy thousands of businesses.
    Well you're completely wrong. He called for a circuit breaker of "at least" 2 weeks, with coincidence with the half-term holidays. He also called for non-essential businesses to close.

    So @Philip_Thompson's guff about "2 week lockdown with work and schools open will do nothing" was just complete bollocks all round.
    He didn't say "at least", he said "I am calling for a two to three week circuit break in England, in line with SAGE's recommendation".

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-54528807
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    MaxPB said:

    If Boris does it, does he suddenly become right?
    If Boris does it, it will either not work or be for more than 2 weeks with work and schools open.

    2 week circuit break with work and schools open will do as much to defeat the virus than skipping one cookie will do to defeat obesity.
    Tell me: is a "2 week circuit breaker with work and schools open" what Keir proposed, because I don't think it was.
    Yes it is. Two or three weeks, keep the schools open. It's pointless gesture politics that will destroy thousands of businesses.
    Well you're completely wrong. He called for a circuit breaker of "at least" 2 weeks, with coincidence with the half-term holidays. He also called for non-essential businesses to close.

    So @Philip_Thompson's guff about "2 week lockdown with work and schools open will do nothing" was just complete bollocks all round.
    Does half term last at least 2 weeks? Or would schools be open during that 2 weeks?
    His proposal is that schools would remain open after the half term, sure.

    So you got 1/3 correct. Still a miserable fail.

    I don’t even support the policy ffs.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    PB Tories are completely rattled, glorious

    Just because you keep saying it, doesn't make it true. Starmer is playing politics with a national crisis. His solution does nothing and was rightly rejected by the government.

    You support the policy but have yet to explain by which mechanism it would work.
    BoJo will implement the policy soon and you will be praising it then
    Will I? Have you read any of my posts for the last few months.
  • Labour now saying their circuit breaker will beat the virus

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    New Thread.
    On which I am so far unable to comment.
  • The most interesting thing about the Scottish polling is the massively high approval rating for Nicola Sturgeon, despite the utter shambles on almost everything from the exam-grade fiasco to the Covid-19 response via the Alex Salmond brouhaha. It's obviously a tribal rallying-around the figurehead.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    We're going to have a deal agreed in principle by tomorrow, surely? Or, if not, we'll know tomorrow that it's a no-deal crash out. The uncertainty will be over. That's what Boris said, and he's not a man to miss a self-imposed deadline.

    Yep. It's Do or Die day. So learning from history it looks like he gets thwarted by an alliance of spineless MPs and nefarious Eurocrats and it's a snap "Save Our Fish!" general election in December.
    All that'd do is give him the seat numbers May had back in 2017 or so ! He'd be in a worse spot.
    You don't think he can win an even bigger landslide on "British fish for British fisherman"?

    You are a effete person lacking in faith.
    Maybe I'm sui generis but part of the reason I voted Tory in 2019 was to as Boris put it "Get Brexit done". We're outside the EU now so as far as I'm concerned the democratic mandate of the referendum is completely fulfilled. No need to reward the conservatives a second time on that count.
    No, you're sui tons of people on that score. Johnson got almost all Leavers plus with his "oven ready" deal he got lots of Remainers like you who wanted shot of the whole business. That was the landslide.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,681
    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Charles said:

    Doctors in Liverpool say those partying in the city do not care people are dying

    It is sad but seems succinct

    This generation seems extraordinarily self-centred
    “The children now love luxury; they have bad manners, contempt for authority; they show disrespect for elders and love chatter in place of exercise. Children are now tyrants, not the servants of their households. They no longer rise when elders enter the room. They contradict their parents, chatter before company, gobble up dainties at the table, cross their legs, and tyrannize their teachers.”

    ― Socrates
    That's a lovely quote. He's a bit old-fashioned, but was a fine footballer.
    I had no idea that boring game was around in ancient Greece. I always thought of ancient Greece as a country sparkling with new ideas and interests and philosophies, sweeping away old ideas and shaping the world to come.

    Not a bunch of grumpy blokes sitting in the taverna grousing about the offside rule.....
    So why misattribute that Victor Meldrew twaddle to Socrates? It's not just that he didn't say it but that he wouldn't in a million years have said it.
    Others beg to differ on that: https://www.bartleby.com/73/195.htm
    bad link...
    Trying again https://www.bartleby.com/73/195.html
    From the conclusion of the article

    "Evidently, the quotation is spurious"

    Or am I missing something?
  • Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Glad I'm moving to Scotland then

    I just don't see how the nascent Scottish state funds public services - several businessmen I deal with/have dealt with in Scotland confessed to me, unprompted, that they'd be on the motorway to England if it ever went indy....IF they could sell their houses.
    Sounds like project fear to me. Believe in Scotland.
    Its not like Brexit, where a handful of business CEOs said this. I deal with SMEs. It would be wholesale. IF house prices didn't collapse.

    I'll helpfully advise you that if the case for the Union only has this kind of thing in the locker, it's done.
    As it should be. Fear will only hold people back so long.

    If you believe in Britain then say why. Loudly and proudly.

    Otherwise its just time to put the union out of its misery.
    The PM doesn't believe in Britain. A border down the Irish Sea was already a big fuck you to the union.
    What border down the Irish Sea? When was it implemented?

    Devolution already existed before Brexit.
    Don't be obtuse. The border down the Irish Sea that he committed the UK to create. The border down the Irish Sea that won a majority of 80 at the General Election.
    You're the one being obtuse. This is what he said during the election campaign.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7NFfUOJwDE

    He's stuck to his word.
    No he didn't. This is tragic Philip, you're spinning so much I wonder if you could do my laundry at the same time
    Go on then, real world terms please show me what real world "border" has actually been implemented. 🙄🙄🙄
    This is true. He hasn't implemented a border. Because he's breaking international law to overturn the treaty which he signed to create a border. He's ignoring his own manifesto to implement that treaty and create the border. And he did publish the details of the paperwork which in your video clip he said wouldn't ever be published.

    Just because he has u-turned doesn't mean he didn't do it. As you very well know.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    MaxPB said:

    PB Tories are completely rattled, glorious

    Just because you keep saying it, doesn't make it true. Starmer is playing politics with a national crisis. His solution does nothing and was rightly rejected by the government.

    You support the policy but have yet to explain by which mechanism it would work.
    "Starmer is playing politics with a national crisis". Yes, I`ve been saying that for weeks. And I think that the public are noticing. He needs to be careful.
  • RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    If Boris does it, does he suddenly become right?
    If Boris does it, it will either not work or be for more than 2 weeks with work and schools open.

    2 week circuit break with work and schools open will do as much to defeat the virus than skipping one cookie will do to defeat obesity.
    Tell me: is a "2 week circuit breaker with work and schools open" what Keir proposed, because I don't think it was.
    Yes it is. Two or three weeks, keep the schools open. It's pointless gesture politics that will destroy thousands of businesses.
    Well you're completely wrong. He called for a circuit breaker of "at least" 2 weeks, with coincidence with the half-term holidays. He also called for non-essential businesses to close.

    So @Philip_Thompson's guff about "2 week lockdown with work and schools open will do nothing" was just complete bollocks all round.
    He didn't say "at least", he said "I am calling for a two to three week circuit break in England, in line with SAGE's recommendation".

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-54528807
    Precisely. Its absolutely useless as a proposal, would do profound economic damage but give bugger all protection against the virus because after 2 weeks nothing will have changed.

    Its about as smart as Theresa May extending Article 50 from March to May, without having any plan to do anything different during April and May.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    If Boris does it, does he suddenly become right?
    If Boris does it, it will either not work or be for more than 2 weeks with work and schools open.

    2 week circuit break with work and schools open will do as much to defeat the virus than skipping one cookie will do to defeat obesity.
    Tell me: is a "2 week circuit breaker with work and schools open" what Keir proposed, because I don't think it was.
    Yes it is. Two or three weeks, keep the schools open. It's pointless gesture politics that will destroy thousands of businesses.
    Well you're completely wrong. He called for a circuit breaker of "at least" 2 weeks, with coincidence with the half-term holidays. He also called for non-essential businesses to close.

    So @Philip_Thompson's guff about "2 week lockdown with work and schools open will do nothing" was just complete bollocks all round.
    He didn't say "at least", he said "I am calling for a two to three week circuit break in England, in line with SAGE's recommendation".

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-54528807
    Precisely. Its absolutely useless as a proposal, would do profound economic damage but give bugger all protection against the virus because after 2 weeks nothing will have changed.

    Its about as smart as Theresa May extending Article 50 from March to May, without having any plan to do anything different during April and May.
    He was even explicit about the lower and upper bound of the duration, "two to three week".
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Worth a read:

    https://unherd.com/2020/10/can-britain-learn-from-germanys-covid-success/?tl_inbound=1&tl_groups[0]=18743&tl_period_type=3

    British people have been dying at six times the rate of German people, from a disease that both countries could see coming at the same time. I wanted to ask around a bit and find out why.

    The short version is that there are several factors, of varying importance — but, probably, none of them is magic, or hidden, or mysterious. There’s no obvious need to posit “immunological dark matter” or illegible cultural factors. Germany was better prepared and reacted faster than Britain did, and in some ways got lucky, while making some mistakes of its own; it had a political system and, of course, politicians, which were better suited to the moment; and together, those factors added up to keeping several tens of thousand Germans alive.

    The key factors, in particular, appear to have been that they took measures earlier, and that they were better at protecting the most at-risk people. Those decisions came at significant cost, economically and to people’s lives – but, I think most of us would agree now, they were worth it.
  • Catching up on PMQs. Not sure how long "lets blame everything on Sir Kier Cardboard" is going to work for Shagger. If his government is following the science then follow the science. If it isn't following the science then say simply and clearly that we can't/shan't/won't follow the science because x" and stick to it.

    Excited as Shagger may be about Labour voting tactics, it matters sod all to the actual crisis in hand.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    If Boris does it, does he suddenly become right?
    If Boris does it, it will either not work or be for more than 2 weeks with work and schools open.

    2 week circuit break with work and schools open will do as much to defeat the virus than skipping one cookie will do to defeat obesity.
    Tell me: is a "2 week circuit breaker with work and schools open" what Keir proposed, because I don't think it was.
    Yes it is. Two or three weeks, keep the schools open. It's pointless gesture politics that will destroy thousands of businesses.
    Well you're completely wrong. He called for a circuit breaker of "at least" 2 weeks, with coincidence with the half-term holidays. He also called for non-essential businesses to close.

    So @Philip_Thompson's guff about "2 week lockdown with work and schools open will do nothing" was just complete bollocks all round.
    He didn't say "at least", he said "I am calling for a two to three week circuit break in England, in line with SAGE's recommendation".

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-54528807
    Precisely. Its absolutely useless as a proposal, would do profound economic damage but give bugger all protection against the virus because after 2 weeks nothing will have changed.

    Its about as smart as Theresa May extending Article 50 from March to May, without having any plan to do anything different during April and May.
    He was even explicit about the lower and upper bound of the duration, "two to three week".
    I believe the idea was to review after 2-3 weeks, so "at least" is correct.

    You guys would have much more credibility if you understood the policy you were criticising.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    If Boris does it, does he suddenly become right?
    If Boris does it, it will either not work or be for more than 2 weeks with work and schools open.

    2 week circuit break with work and schools open will do as much to defeat the virus than skipping one cookie will do to defeat obesity.
    Tell me: is a "2 week circuit breaker with work and schools open" what Keir proposed, because I don't think it was.
    Yes it is. Two or three weeks, keep the schools open. It's pointless gesture politics that will destroy thousands of businesses.
    Well you're completely wrong. He called for a circuit breaker of "at least" 2 weeks, with coincidence with the half-term holidays. He also called for non-essential businesses to close.

    So @Philip_Thompson's guff about "2 week lockdown with work and schools open will do nothing" was just complete bollocks all round.
    He didn't say "at least", he said "I am calling for a two to three week circuit break in England, in line with SAGE's recommendation".

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-54528807
    Precisely. Its absolutely useless as a proposal, would do profound economic damage but give bugger all protection against the virus because after 2 weeks nothing will have changed.

    Its about as smart as Theresa May extending Article 50 from March to May, without having any plan to do anything different during April and May.
    He was even explicit about the lower and upper bound of the duration, "two to three week".
    I believe the idea was to review after 2-3 weeks, so "at least" is correct.

    You guys would have much more credibility if you understood the policy you were criticising.
    I'm just quoting what he said.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,426
    It's a masterclass in political presentation, but it seems at variance with the facts.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    tlg86 said:

    When the scientists come and tell you that a measure will save between 3k and 107k lives....I want them to go away and come back when they have a much better estimate, before I can make an informed decision.

    And, also, is it a net figure.
    Net? There is scope for a Gross figure? Those who died and were reanimated as Zombies can be deducted from the Gross Total?
    Didn't we find around 10k Covid survivors down the back of the sofa in June/July? The fatality figure dropped from circa 50k to circa 40k.
    That was from the phe figures, it didn't affect the Gold standard ONS figures.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    If Boris does it, does he suddenly become right?
    If Boris does it, it will either not work or be for more than 2 weeks with work and schools open.

    2 week circuit break with work and schools open will do as much to defeat the virus than skipping one cookie will do to defeat obesity.
    Tell me: is a "2 week circuit breaker with work and schools open" what Keir proposed, because I don't think it was.
    Yes it is. Two or three weeks, keep the schools open. It's pointless gesture politics that will destroy thousands of businesses.
    Well you're completely wrong. He called for a circuit breaker of "at least" 2 weeks, with coincidence with the half-term holidays. He also called for non-essential businesses to close.

    So @Philip_Thompson's guff about "2 week lockdown with work and schools open will do nothing" was just complete bollocks all round.
    He didn't say "at least", he said "I am calling for a two to three week circuit break in England, in line with SAGE's recommendation".

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-54528807
    Precisely. Its absolutely useless as a proposal, would do profound economic damage but give bugger all protection against the virus because after 2 weeks nothing will have changed.

    Its about as smart as Theresa May extending Article 50 from March to May, without having any plan to do anything different during April and May.
    He was even explicit about the lower and upper bound of the duration, "two to three week".
    I believe the idea was to review after 2-3 weeks, so "at least" is correct.

    You guys would have much more credibility if you understood the policy you were criticising.
    I'm just quoting what he said.
    Which is not the entire policy. Just like what Boris says is never the entire policy.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    If Boris does it, does he suddenly become right?
    If Boris does it, it will either not work or be for more than 2 weeks with work and schools open.

    2 week circuit break with work and schools open will do as much to defeat the virus than skipping one cookie will do to defeat obesity.
    Tell me: is a "2 week circuit breaker with work and schools open" what Keir proposed, because I don't think it was.
    Yes it is. Two or three weeks, keep the schools open. It's pointless gesture politics that will destroy thousands of businesses.
    Well you're completely wrong. He called for a circuit breaker of "at least" 2 weeks, with coincidence with the half-term holidays. He also called for non-essential businesses to close.

    So @Philip_Thompson's guff about "2 week lockdown with work and schools open will do nothing" was just complete bollocks all round.
    He didn't say "at least", he said "I am calling for a two to three week circuit break in England, in line with SAGE's recommendation".

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-54528807
    Precisely. Its absolutely useless as a proposal, would do profound economic damage but give bugger all protection against the virus because after 2 weeks nothing will have changed.

    Its about as smart as Theresa May extending Article 50 from March to May, without having any plan to do anything different during April and May.
    He was even explicit about the lower and upper bound of the duration, "two to three week".
    I believe the idea was to review after 2-3 weeks, so "at least" is correct.

    You guys would have much more credibility if you understood the policy you were criticising.
    I'm just quoting what he said.
    Which is not the entire policy. Just like what Boris says is never the entire policy.
    So why did you use quotation marks around "at least", implying it was a quote from Starmer? If the idea of the policy was an open-ended lockdown, wouldn't that have been said at the briefing?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,859
    I believe in the United Kingdom. I think we are more together than we would be apart and that Scotland in particular would lose even more than England.
    I am proud of our history together. We of course have made many mistakes but we have also done a lot of good and in my view the balance is comfortably in credit. My late father served in the British army for more than 20 years. I was born in Cheltenham and spent some of my youth outside Winchester. I have felt more British than Scots my entire life.
    I am proud to be a citizen of a country that actually matters in the world, that has a seat on the Security Council, that has a well funded and internationally respected aid program, that stands up for human rights and civilised values. I like the fact that we actually matter.
    If Scotland opts for independence I will feel diminished. I would be a citizen of an irrelevant backwater whose views on the issues of the day are of no moment, who would be parochial and dull. No one who has ever watched the Scottish Parliament should be in any doubt about how dull it would be.
    When I go down to England I feel every bit as home as I do in Scotland. It is a part of my country. I belong there as much as here. I am still at home.
    The economic consequences of Independence would of course be calamitous but at the end of the day who you are matters more than how much you have got. There would be a heavy price to pay as the delusions of the Nationalists were laid bare but we would survive. No one should really doubt the price but people like me are not in this for the money.
    The great weakness of Better Together was that it made so little of this pride in our country and yet when I was canvassing that is what I heard repeatedly. There was great frustration in the way the campaign was fought, a frustration I shared. A Labour led campaign with a Tory government in Westminster meant that there was a great reluctance to speak up for the positive aspects of the Union. It is not a mistake that can be repeated.
    I do not think that there is anything inevitable about independence. I, for one, will do what I can to persuade my fellow citizens that we are British and proud of it. I think we will prevail, again.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    Alistair said:

    tlg86 said:

    When the scientists come and tell you that a measure will save between 3k and 107k lives....I want them to go away and come back when they have a much better estimate, before I can make an informed decision.

    And, also, is it a net figure.
    Net? There is scope for a Gross figure? Those who died and were reanimated as Zombies can be deducted from the Gross Total?
    Didn't we find around 10k Covid survivors down the back of the sofa in June/July? The fatality figure dropped from circa 50k to circa 40k.
    That was from the phe figures, it didn't affect the Gold standard ONS figures.
    I was being flippant. My only guide was excess deaths during the peak, and it will be again this time around.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,681
    edited October 2020
    DavidL said:

    I believe in the United Kingdom. I think we are more together than we would be apart and that Scotland in particular would lose even more than England.
    I am proud of our history together. We of course have made many mistakes but we have also done a lot of good and in my view the balance is comfortably in credit. My late father served in the British army for more than 20 years. I was born in Cheltenham and spent some of my youth outside Winchester. I have felt more British than Scots my entire life.
    I am proud to be a citizen of a country that actually matters in the world, that has a seat on the Security Council, that has a well funded and internationally respected aid program, that stands up for human rights and civilised values. I like the fact that we actually matter.
    If Scotland opts for independence I will feel diminished. I would be a citizen of an irrelevant backwater whose views on the issues of the day are of no moment, who would be parochial and dull. No one who has ever watched the Scottish Parliament should be in any doubt about how dull it would be.
    When I go down to England I feel every bit as home as I do in Scotland. It is a part of my country. I belong there as much as here. I am still at home.
    The economic consequences of Independence would of course be calamitous but at the end of the day who you are matters more than how much you have got. There would be a heavy price to pay as the delusions of the Nationalists were laid bare but we would survive. No one should really doubt the price but people like me are not in this for the money.
    The great weakness of Better Together was that it made so little of this pride in our country and yet when I was canvassing that is what I heard repeatedly. There was great frustration in the way the campaign was fought, a frustration I shared. A Labour led campaign with a Tory government in Westminster meant that there was a great reluctance to speak up for the positive aspects of the Union. It is not a mistake that can be repeated.
    I do not think that there is anything inevitable about independence. I, for one, will do what I can to persuade my fellow citizens that we are British and proud of it. I think we will prevail, again.

    I hope you are right.

    My mother was Scottish, my father English with Welsh ancestry and a Welsh name. I live in England but take nearly every holiday in Scotland and even went to school there for a time. I'm not alone in this.

    I always wanted to move up north but I'm not so sure now. It just seems so....unnecessary. We will all be diminished, as you say.

    I can understand it feeling remote from Westminster at times but then the same applies to many parts of England. Edinburgh has more in common with London than Devon (or Sutherland has in common with Edinburgh, for that matter).

    If you think Brexit will be bad, breaking up the Union will be 10 times worse.

    What I don't understand is how Nicola is defying gravity with all the cockups and scandals. She is due a fall.


    I think this poll is perhaps just another example of the Rule of Covid: There is no bad situation that this virus can't make worse.







  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,315
    A reality check: if Daughter’s business was closed for a month the maximum help it would get would be £1,300.

    That would cover one month’s rent and part only of a month’s electricity. Bear in mind that freezers need to be kept on.

    How could water, wi-if, telephone, insurance be paid for?

    Let alone employees’ wages, NI, pension contributions etc?

    That’s a closed business in debt right there from Day 1.

    And for businesses under Tier 2 restrictions, turnover is down 70%. That’s not viable.

    So unless the government changes its mind over support, the hospitality sector will be - bluntly - fucked long before Xmas.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    PB Tories are completely rattled, glorious

    You don't half talk some rubbish....People are quite rightly pointing out the flaw in an idea. Many of the wiser posters also pointed out the flaw in SAGE advice to only test hospital admissions, that masks didn't work and therefore the public should not be told to wear them, etc.

    Proposing a policy that you can't evaluate and that your guess-estimate is an order of magnitude different between the upper and lower bound is quite rightly being pointed out as not very wise.
    Two orders of magnitude.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357
    Mortimer said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Mortimer said:

    I'm more interested in how Scottish indy doesn't result in hugely unpopular austerity - 30% cut or more in public services.

    And how that remains popular?

    The same way Brexit will remain popular in January...
    Brexit that in the worst case scenario forecast ends in lower GROWTH?

    How Scottish indy doesn't result in real economic hardship for Scotland is a mystery to me...
    @mortimer maybe if you knew anything about Scotland you would know better. Some idiot in south of England with superiority complex has not a scooby of what Scotland is like. You should worry more about England once shorn of our cash and resources. Scotland holds more than 34% of UK natural resources, we will do just fine once we are not being pickpocketed.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357
    Looking like wipeout, seems to be upwards every poll, makes you worry a bit. @Theuniondivvie
This discussion has been closed.