Categories
The battle for the White House – Trump’s fight to retain the female vote – politicalbetting.com
The battle for the White House – Trump’s fight to retain the female vote – politicalbetting.com
From today's Morning Consult WH2020 poll – the demographic splits pic.twitter.com/Jbchc35CQl
-1
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Eli Lilly antibody trial paused.
Now 12.85m.
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
So around 5% have voted already? Plus presumably that figure should now start to rise rapidly. That’s bad news for Trump that so many are voting early.
I suppose to set against that people who vote that early are more likely to be firmly committed to one side or the other anyway. But again, this doesn’t look to be an election with many undecided voters. All other considerations aside, it’s more about personalities rather than issues - the mild, inoffensive, rather wet Biden against an orange haired lunatic - and personalities don’t change.
That's 9.4% of the total number of votes cast in 2016.
Key States (2020 early vote as a % of total 2016 vote):
PA - 7.1%
MI - 21.9%
WI - 24.1%
FL - 18.6%
NC - 10.3%
AZ - 3.9%
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1316244873113219073?s=19
Anyone know the breakdown of Asian voters? (Chinese, Korean, Filipino etc in the American context).
Though of course the circumstances of the election are somewhat unusual.
Are you saying that’s why the Republicans want originalists on the Supreme Court, Mike ?
(Fine thread header, btw)
https://twitter.com/jameshay218/status/1316202275048579072
However I twist those sentences, I can’t make them anything other than bad news for Trump.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1316256488147554305
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1316256758969643009
People need to be shown that in the ONLY free country in the world they shouldn't be allowed to vote for the other guy.
Vladimir Ulyanov.
In any event if he's going to win easily, why bother, as Mr Pioneers posts, to queue for 11 hours to vote. So might be counter-productive.
At the moment he looks set for the most decisive result since 1996. That would do nicely. But a Democratic version of 1984 would be even better.
What's the spread on how many days until BoZo does the inevitable?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-lockdown-three-tier-cases-deaths-covid/
A Covid-19 vaccine is likely to be only 50 per cent effective, the chairman of the UK Vaccine Taskforce has said.
Kate Bingham said any vaccine capable of immunising against the virus would probably be as effective as the flu vaccine.
“The vaccines we have for flu are about 50 per cent effective,” she said.
“We shouldn’t assume it’s going to be better than a flu vaccine, because that’s an equivalent – it’s a mutating … respiratory virus that gets in through the nose and eyes and respiratory tract.”
Over promise, under deliver.
https://twitter.com/BareReality/status/1306897564885831680
--AS
My take on this whole fiasco is whatever the short term opportunities for the Conservatives they will nonetheless take the longer term blame and hence the hit.
Kate was far more nuanced than that
When the government is saying to work from home then Parliament doing so is a good example.
It is sad but seems succinct
This gives a huge signal as to the actual intent of the voters. Along with knowing if they have changed their party registration since 2016.
Last I looked 90% of the independents who have voted early voted in the Dem Primary.
I'd also make bloody sure I did vote, because somebody is obviously trying to make it very difficult for me to do so.
Furthermore, we all know that it is easy to put England/UK into lockdown but far more difficult to come out
The other issue is Boris would struggle to get his party to back a full lockdown
Because an 11 hour queue weeks ahead of polling day equals not being allowed to vote at all on polling day. Ordinarily this would be considered a disgrace to the so called leader of the free world. Under Trump? Meh.
https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1311702194979209216?s=19
Detailed work on a circuit breaker and will look at it over the next week
Seems he is hedging his bets
We are not talking about aggregated stats here.
"Mr Sunak and the Cabinet hawks might have won the argument to avert a national lockdown. But for how long would their victory last?"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/10/13/rishi-sunak-battled-scientists-gove-hancock-bid-see-circuit/
The idea we can do a 2 week circuit break and keep schools open and that would solve all our problems is about as plausible as saying skipping desert once would solve obesity. A 2 week break would inflict tremendous economic damage but do absolutely nothing significant virus wise. It is the most insane worst scenario to go for, all harm no good.
It was a brutal tale of Dem attrition or Dem to GOP switching.
My next step is to the see how many of the 2012 Dem Registered to 2016 non voters have now turned up in 2020 early voting.
Drakeford says Wales is not at the level of England
If people went on holiday and then spent the time exploiting lack of restrictions that might have been in place and spent the entire time packing into bars and nightspots then yes. But that is about how people behave in general, not the fact of having a holiday, foreign or otherwise. I went on holiday. Over the course of it I probably had less social contact than over an equivalent period of the last six months. All precautions were taken, and there was 2 weeks quarantine on return. That is completely different to people partying in packed streets in Liverpool or elsewhere and being in a totally uncontrolled environment. You may reject that - it’s up to you.
I should add of course that for all the talk of “circuit breakers” that is how large numbers of people will respond. Massive party before, and massive party after. Probably with a big “protest march” in the middle. It may look good to the scientists on paper in their modelling.
But i’ll bet their modelling is limited on how people will behave in practice.
https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=9054
I expect the GOP will take the lead there shortly. Well until Clark County starts getting their ballots !
There are basically three factions in Parliament - lock down harder, start to relax, and tack your way through the middle. The third has been tried for some time and doesn't seemb to be working. There is a substantial Tory backbench group supporting "start to relax", but a much larger majority for "lock down harder". BJ can use it if he wants to.
I mean jeez. Just plain whacko nuts.
It’s likely that those who voted in 2012 and not in 2016 are disaffected Democrats.
It’s likely that those who didn’t vote in 2012 but did in 2016 are Trump supporters.
Knowing how these particular groups vote in 2020 could be key to the result, obviously those voting early are committed voters, on one side or another.
We should give up on it and just make the votes public, that makes everything else about the process (making sure they can vote, making sure their vote is counted as they cast it) way easier.
And, in the US, we're talking about a country where most people register a party affiliation with the state. Any tone of surprise seems a bit misplaced.
He's clearly doing worse than women in 2016 but then he's doing substantially worse on the headline numbers! Also don't discount the possibility that Trump voters could be even less likely to be polling compliant than they were in 2016.
But this was funny:
"To be fair to Baroness Harding, the poor woman has only been given £12.6 billion to come up with a workable NHS tracking system. With that amount, you could have paid every single elderly and vulnerable person in the UK £60,000 to shield themselves in the Bahamas and used the change to recompense students for their non-existent university experience."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/life/yes-boris-tippingpoint-trust/
@Cyclefree was polite when she called them "Hollow Men" ...