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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » S. Shields Ukip share – I’m taking a punt at 6/1 that it’

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  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,890
    @Avery "If you squeezed tim in between the two gals in your avatar I would expect him to quickly change his mind."

    I haven't any doubt! What's more they're Italian and though I don't want to belittle my work they're even better in the flesh. I just worry that they might see themselves and want repeats!
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    surbiton said:


    OK, 32 seats in, R-squared only 0.54.

    That tells us that about half of the non-white vote can be explained. Equally, the other half cannot be thus explained. Conclusion ? Neutral.

    I recommend that you do some revision on your statistics module, Surbiton. Perhaps you should get someone to explain it all to you.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,522
    AndyJS said:

    "Thatcher only got selected as the Conservative candidate for Finchley because a supporter rigged the vote. Her main rival was Thomas Langton, holder of the Military Cross and described by someone at the selection meeting as a "one-legged brigadier". In the final vote, Thatcher supposedly won by 46 votes to 43. But Bertie Blatch, the association chairman, later told his son (who was interviewed by Moore): "She didn't actually win. The man did, but I thought, 'He's got a silver spoon in his mouth. He'll get another seat. So I 'lost' two of his votes and gave them to her."

    Whatever. She's no longer with us, time for fans and foes alike to move on. The attempt to ramp the book is transparent.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/apr/23/margaret-thatcher-six-things-know

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    tim said:

    An instinct sublimated in boats.
    Must try to get that into a conversation sometime

    I'm sure you will, tim. Many times.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Mrs Thatcher liked to think she got by in politics without any positive discrimination, but I think the truth probably was that paternalistic men were doing things all the time to make life easier for her on the basis of gallantry, chivalry, etc.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I wonder if there's a correlation between age and class as far as UKIP support is concerned, with older supporters more likely to be middle-class, and younger voters being less well-off.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited April 2013
    On topic: Exceeding 30% is a big ask for UKIP. I'd expect Labour to poll at least 55%, probably 60%+, given the history of this constituency, their postal-vote advantage, and the fact that they are the main opposition mid-term at a time when the LibDems are tainted with reality, With nine candidates standing, to beat 30% would require UKIP to scoop up the vast majority of the non-Labour vote, starting from nowhere.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,522
    I wonder if UKIP hasn't stretched itself too thin? They've done well to get so many candidates and they look set to be second in South Shields, but if they have masses of candidates who put out no literature and get 3% of the vote, won't that dampen the momentum? Of course, if they win in SS then they can afford to do badly everywhere else.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    Tim - The Mail always finds half the population wanting to emigrate, and has for at least 2 decades every time it has asked the question, and if you read the Mail everyday on life in Britain I would think even Somalia would look a better bet than Blighty!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814
    AndyJS said:

    Mrs Thatcher liked to think she got by in politics without any positive discrimination, but I think the truth probably was that paternalistic men were doing things all the time to make life easier for her on the basis of gallantry, chivalry, etc.

    That is true in a way, but that's better than Mrs Gandhi getting by simply by being Nehru's daughter or Sri Lanka's Mrs. Bandarinaike getting by, by being widow to her husband.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    Our genial host (OGH), the Sage of Bedford (SOB), makes a lot of sense with his argument for the UKIP bet.

    Maybe he will produce better returns than the Sage of Omaha this year.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2013
    One of my favourite documentaries of recent years was this Horizon episode from 2008, "How To Make Better Decisions".

    The face experiment is particularly interesting IMO:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ul-FqOfX-t8

    Although this person didn't think the programme was much good:

    http://www.metalvortex.com/blog/2008/02/14/61.html
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The face experiment is on this part at 3 mins 55 secs:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u54KOlONjgs
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Another one is the drink experiment at 3 mins 20 secs:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lpo_yoWh64I
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    One certain thing this morning is that 'Sir' Robert Chote is not in Patisserie Valerie sharing a croissant with Roger.

    The OBR were due to publish their commentary on the ONS Public Finances Release at 12:00 Noon but it is nowhere to be seen.

    He must be hard at work revising his forecast deficit reduction figures.

    He really should not have taken Roger's scribblings on a paper napkin seriously last March.

    How long will we have to wait?
  • It seems mike smithson has had a backhander from ukip to talk up their chances
This discussion has been closed.