Osborne promised to abolish the deficit.It is currently higher. He promised growth of potentially 4 & 5% in 2014 & 2015.
He has been a disaster.
Is the deficit higher? Someone claimed the opposite earlier today.
OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook - March 2013
Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) is estimated to have fallen by about a quarter from its post-war peak of £158.9 billion (11.2 per cent of GDP) in 2009-10 to £121.0 billion (7.9 per cent of GDP) in 2011-12. We forecast that it will come in at £86.5 billion (5.6 per cent of GDP) this year, but this figure is flattered by Government policy decisions that have a temporary impact on the deficit.
Excluding the decisions to transfer the Royal Mail’s historic pension assets to the public sector, and the surpluses in the Bank of England’s Asset Purchase Facility (APF) to the Exchequer, the underlying PSNB is expected to be little changed this year or next from the figure recorded in 2011-12. Specifically, we forecast an underlying deficit of £120.9 billion (7.8 per cent of GDP) in 2012-13, and £119.8 billion (7.5 per cent of GDP) in 2013-14.
I think the Tories would have won Birmingham Edgbaston in 2010 if New Commonwealth immigrants weren't able to vote.
Why on Earth are they allowing this anachronism to continue?
Even if those Commonwealth citizens are married to British nationals, OR have paid tax to the UK Exchequer for decades?
There are plenty of immigrants from other countries that are married to British nationals and have paid tax to the UK Exchequer for decades. The fact is that UK citizens do not get reciprocal rights in these nations. If you wish to vote in the UK, you should undergo the process of becoming a UK citizen and swearing allegiance to this country.
I thought you Americans believe in NO TAXATION WITHOUT REPRESENTATION!
That, of course, applied at the community level, rather than at the individual level, given that universal suffrage did not exist at the time. Nor does it today: under 18s can work and pay tax yet do not get the vote. I don't think it's unreasonable that those choosing the government of this country should have allegiance to it.
So are you really suggesting that they get a massive tax and NI refund then? My mum, for example has been working in the UK for 30 years this year.
No, I'm not. If your mother has been working in the UK for three decades, presumably she has been eligible for citizenship for a long time. I don't particularly see why an immigrant from India should get more rights than an immigrant from the USA.
Because unlike India, the US broke with the Crown?
If I had my way I'd let the US and Ireland and any other country with English as a de facto or de jure national language join the Commonwealth.
PS - no such thing as "New" or "Old" - purely racist terms. There can be only one Commonwealth!
India broke with the Crown! It's a republic don't you know!
As for the "new" or "old" commonwealth terms, I think they have relevance in terms of income levels and their histories (in terms of when they were given self-governance).
George VI was still King of India (as opposed to Emperor!) immediately after independence, from 1947-1950. India agreed to remain in THE Commonwealth (remember, there can be only one!) in exchange for being able to become a republic on 26th Jan 1950.
But they did break with the crown in 1950 when they became a republic. There's also the case that the reason the US had to break with the crown, despite swearing allegiance on a number of occasions during the dispute, was because Westminster didn't give autonomy in the way it later did for India!
Yes but the 1950 arrangement was with the agreement of the UK and the other Commonwealth countries! Of course, the Irish were a year or two premature in leaving - If they had held out till 1950 they too could have remained in the Commonwealth!
Nothing stopping the US applying for membership right now, IMHO! If we can let in Mozambique, we can let in the Americans!
"Unlike Eastleigh there has been no polling so there’s nothing to guide punters apart from the GE2010 outcome."
It's hardly a direct one to one comparison but when the same UKIP candidate stood for the Middlesbrough by-election in late November last year, that was a labour win of some 60% voteshare with Richard Elvin getting about 11%.
UKIP's fortunes have almost certainly risen since then. The question is by how much?
OK, so I'm going through Greater London's Westminster Constituency 2011 census data, and comparing the White British population (%) with the 2010 Labour vote (%) in each. I do have a trend-line after 25 seats (of a total of 73), but the R-squared value is only 0.5! I.'ll let you know what I get after all 73 have been entered.
But those figures speak for themselves. Osborbe will be £119.8 billion off.
Each and every year.
What an absolute failure. Shares for rights (yup that nonsense) has just been blown out the water.
Hopefully his disastrous housing policy will be soon as well.
Now put that bottle down, IOS, and listen.
In 2009-10, the last year of Gordon's shambolic rule, the government borrowed £158.9 bn. This was the largest amount borrowed by a government in a single year since WWII.
In 2012-13, under George Osborne, the government will borrow £86.5 bn according the OBR's latest forecast which was based on 10 months known outputs and two months forecast.
Gordon's borrowing amounted to 11.2% of GDP. George's will amount to 5.6% of GDP.
George will have reduced borrowing by 46% over this period.
The figure of £119.8 is an estimate by the OBR of what they call the "underlying deficit". In other words it is what George would have had to borrow had he not reduced borrowing with non-recurring receipts.
If - having come to live and work here - you want to vote in this country, you should become a citizen. If you choose not to, that's your decision and you take the consequences.
I don't think that simply paying tax should entitle you to vote. That all feels a bit 19thC to me. What about those citizens who pay no tax? Should they be denied the vote?
OK, so I'm going through Greater London's Westminster Constituency 2011 census data, and comparing the White British population (%) with the 2010 Labour vote (%) in each. I do have a trend-line after 25 seats (of a total of 73), but the R-squared value is only 0.5! I.'ll let you know what I get after all 73 have been entered.
When will it be a suitable time to tell you to get a life ?
MD, the thing about ASOIAF is it only gradually dawns on you just how self-serving some of the characters' viewpoints are. Daenerys has a remarkable ability to persuade herself that the morally correct course of action is whatever serves her interests at that point in time. Tyrion wallows in self-pity, despite actually being one of the most powerful men in Westeros.
@Sunil_Prasannan: "Of course, the Irish were a year or two premature in leaving - If they had held out till 1950 they too could have remained in the Commonwealth!"
I doubt that the Irish in 1950 would have wanted to be in the Commonwealth. We might think of it as HMQ smiling benignly at foreign leaders from the Empire. The Irish associate it with Oliver Cromwell's New Model Army and the havoc he wrought; nor did the Irish then have much love for the English Crown or any of its institutions.
David Cameron: I love Guinness, darts and Sky+ • Tory leader reaches out to voters with interviews with GMTV, Woman's Hour and men's magazine • Says he may consider all-women shortlists again before the election
, Thursday 18 February 2010 11.55 GMT
It's been a while since the fop amused us all with one of his 'man of the people' PR triumphs.
Ah, why not...
He began to wax lyrical. "I think the last one I bought was from the West Cornwall Pasty Company. I seem to remember I was in Leeds station at the time and the choice was whether to have one of their small ones or one of their large ones. I have got a feeling I opted for the large one, and very good it was too."
But those figures speak for themselves. Osborbe will be £119.8 billion off.
Each and every year.
What an absolute failure. Shares for rights (yup that nonsense) has just been blown out the water.
Hopefully his disastrous housing policy will be soon as well.
Now put that bottle down, IOS, and listen.
In 2009-10, the last year of Gordon's shambolic rule, the government borrowed £158.9 bn. This was the largest amount borrowed by a government in a single year since WWII.
In 2012-13, under George Osborne, the government will borrow £86.5 bn according the OBR's latest forecast which was based on 10 months known outputs and two months forecast.
Gordon's borrowing amounted to 11.2% of GDP. George's will amount to 5.6% of GDP.
George will have reduced borrowing by 46% over this period.
The figure of £119.8 is an estimate by the OBR of what they call the "underlying deficit". In other words it is what George would have had to borrow had he not reduced borrowing with non-recurring receipts.
I don't think that simply paying tax should entitle you to vote. That all feels a bit 19thC to me. What about those citizens who pay no tax? Should they be denied the vote?
Yes , if they are Labour voting shirkers , no if they Conservative voting pensioners .
He began to wax lyrical. "I think the last one I bought was from the West Cornwall Pasty Company. I seem to remember I was in Leeds station at the time and the choice was whether to have one of their small ones or one of their large ones. I have got a feeling I opted for the large one, and very good it was too."
Glorious.
Cammie's political epitaph will be replete with such wonders.
I reported a few days back that Assad's forces were on the counter offensive, throwing rebels back in a number of areas and at least temporarily securing some key areas around the cities that dot the vital North South Syrian artery.
It appears Assad's forces have had some help from Hizbollah, who have reportedly brought in around 2000 troops to the central areas, Homs province, to spearhead operations there. Such focussed use of Hizbollah troops has been noted in this region before with good results and they come in a serious push.
The problem for Assad, however remain the same, is that he simply doesn't control large tracts of the country. The cities, by and large, he still a has hold in, however tenuous in many places. These counters, however, can't be ignored
It is traditional for the Queen to announce new Knights and Ladies of the Order of the Garter on St. George's Day which is tomorrow, 23rd April.
With the Blessed Margaret passing there are now three vacancies.
Do we think that our Tone will become "The Right Honourable Sir Anthony Charles Lynton Blair, KG PC" tomorrow?
He hasn't been too keen on honours up to now but Cherie may have been persuaded by the pomp and circumstance of Maggie's funeral to keep onside with Her Majesty.
Tony would probably have the option to become a Thistle Knight rather than a Garter but this is probably an option more applicable to Gordon, if or when an offer is made.
@Sunil_Prasannan: "Of course, the Irish were a year or two premature in leaving - If they had held out till 1950 they too could have remained in the Commonwealth!"
I doubt that the Irish in 1950 would have wanted to be in the Commonwealth. We might think of it as HMQ smiling benignly at foreign leaders from the Empire. The Irish associate it with Oliver Cromwell's New Model Army and the havoc he wrought; nor did the Irish then have much love for the English Crown or any of its institutions.
Amritsar and the Rowlatt Acts were a bit more recent than Cromwell, yet India stayed in.
@Sunil_Prasannan: "Amritsar and the Rowlatt Acts were a bit more recent than Cromwell, yet India stayed in."
You have no idea for how long and how intensely the Irish have hated the English. Disputes between close neighbours, indeed family relations, are far more intense than those between more distant acquaintances.
Also, the British withdrew from India within, what? 50 years or so of demands for independence and didn't leave behind a colony. It took over a century for the British to get that message in Ireland and, even when they left, one of the main political parties was prepared to look kindly on insurrection by a part of the military in order to allow a gerrymandered British statelet to remain.
Those wounds don't heal easily as we've seen to our cost.
@Sunil_Prasannan: "Amritsar and the Rowlatt Acts were a bit more recent than Cromwell, yet India stayed in."
You have no idea for how long and how intensely the Irish have hated the English. Disputes between close neighbours, indeed family relations, are far more intense than those between more distant acquaintances.
Also, the British withdrew from India within, what? 50 years or so of demands for independence
1857! Makes it 90 years (um, if you regard it as "India's First War of Independence", that is!). Mum always shouts at me when I point out the Sikhs, Nepalis and much of southern India stayed neutral or actively supported Britain
OK, so I'm going through Greater London's Westminster Constituency 2011 census data, and comparing the White British population (%) with the 2010 Labour vote (%) in each. I do have a trend-line after 25 seats (of a total of 73), but the R-squared value is only 0.5! I.'ll let you know what I get after all 73 have been entered.
When will it be a suitable time to tell you to get a life ?
Hey that doesn't stop me contributing to this thread!
You have no idea for how long and how intensely the Irish have hated the English. Disputes between close neighbours, indeed family relations, are far more intense than those between more distant acquaintances.
It was a Fine Gael led Government (rather than a more hardline "republican" coalition) that finally withdrew from the Commonwealth, I really dont think it can be fairly characterised as being motivated by bitter emnity towards the English. It was more a natural evolution of a process that started with the establishment of the Free State. I think Sunil could be right to the extent that if the India situation had been resolved first Ireland could possibly still be in the Commonwealth today. De Valera's grandson has suggested rejoining in recent years but that probably wouldnt be very popular today.
Speaking of fantasy, just noticed that Sworn in Steel, the follow-up to Douglas Hulick's debut novel Among Thieves, has had its release date set back to early next year.
On the plus side, it seems that the eagerly awaited third Gentlemen Bastard book, Republic of Thieves, may be out this year, in October.
I think stand-alone novels that occur in a common world with overlapping charactrs (and sometimes the same ones entirely) work pretty well. The problem with a series is that sometimes the instalments can take a long time to come and the weight of their own plot can make things tricky (a bit like in Metal Gear Solid 4 where the lore of the previous 3 games was like a kind of verbal Japanese knotweed).
OK, so I'm going through Greater London's Westminster Constituency 2011 census data, and comparing the White British population (%) with the 2010 Labour vote (%) in each. I do have a trend-line after 25 seats (of a total of 73), but the R-squared value is only 0.5! I.'ll let you know what I get after all 73 have been entered.
@Sunil_Prasannan: "Amritsar and the Rowlatt Acts were a bit more recent than Cromwell, yet India stayed in."
You have no idea for how long and how intensely the Irish have hated the English. Disputes between close neighbours, indeed family relations, are far more intense than those between more distant acquaintances.
Also, the British withdrew from India within, what? 50 years or so of demands for independence and didn't leave behind a colony. It took over a century for the British to get that message in Ireland and, even when they left, one of the main political parties was prepared to look kindly on insurrection by a part of the military in order to allow a gerrymandered British statelet to remain.
Those wounds don't heal easily as we've seen to our cost.
I thought the 1916 easter rising in Ireland had no popular support, and it was the heavy handed response of the crown that caused the final split.
OK, so I'm going through Greater London's Westminster Constituency 2011 census data, and comparing the White British population (%) with the 2010 Labour vote (%) in each. I do have a trend-line after 25 seats (of a total of 73), but the R-squared value is only 0.5! I.'ll let you know what I get after all 73 have been entered.
OK, so I'm going through Greater London's Westminster Constituency 2011 census data, and comparing the White British population (%) with the 2010 Labour vote (%) in each. I do have a trend-line after 25 seats (of a total of 73), but the R-squared value is only 0.5! I.'ll let you know what I get after all 73 have been entered.
If those first 25 datapoints are random you appear to have a highly significant association. The r2 of .5 would decisively reject a null of no association even on a one-way test. Is the slope negative?
OK, so I'm going through Greater London's Westminster Constituency 2011 census data, and comparing the White British population (%) with the 2010 Labour vote (%) in each. I do have a trend-line after 25 seats (of a total of 73), but the R-squared value is only 0.5! I.'ll let you know what I get after all 73 have been entered.
If those first 25 datapoints are random you appear to have a highly significant association. The r2 of .5 would decisively reject a null of no association even on a one-way test. Is the slope negative?
OK, so I'm going through Greater London's Westminster Constituency 2011 census data, and comparing the White British population (%) with the 2010 Labour vote (%) in each. I do have a trend-line after 25 seats (of a total of 73), but the R-squared value is only 0.5! I.'ll let you know what I get after all 73 have been entered.
OK, so I'm going through Greater London's Westminster Constituency 2011 census data, and comparing the White British population (%) with the 2010 Labour vote (%) in each. I do have a trend-line after 25 seats (of a total of 73), but the R-squared value is only 0.5! I.'ll let you know what I get after all 73 have been entered.
If those first 25 datapoints are random you appear to have a highly significant association. The r2 of .5 would decisively reject a null of no association even on a one-way test. Is the slope negative?
Yes it is negative.
But of far more interest, Mrs Stodge and I enjoyed a very pleasant Saturday exploring the Epping-Ongar railway. For me, the two highlights were riding on the top deck of the RT bus from Epping out to Ongar and second the book shop at Ongar station.
A veritable cornucopia of transport literature on offer - perhaps you should find out about the Newbury Park to Ilford Sidings link which closed in 1971.
OK, so I'm going through Greater London's Westminster Constituency 2011 census data, and comparing the White British population (%) with the 2010 Labour vote (%) in each. I do have a trend-line after 25 seats (of a total of 73), but the R-squared value is only 0.5! I.'ll let you know what I get after all 73 have been entered.
When will it be a suitable time to tell you to get a life ?
Hey that doesn't stop me contributing to this thread!
OK, 32 seats in, R-squared only 0.54.
That tells us that about half of the non-white vote can be explained. Equally, the other half cannot be thus explained. Conclusion ? Neutral.
To be honest, I would have expected something like 0.65.
I wouldn't bet on the quarterly GDP figures showing growth this week.
I also wouldn't bet on there being fewer than 100,000 Romanians and Bulgarians coming to Britain within two years of the restrictions being lifted.
It was looking like 0.1% - 0.3% until the cold weather closed in. After all, consumption is 75% of the GDP. Manufacturing also did not do well but now-a-days that is only 11% of GDP.
About 18 hours' canvassing in different areas of the constituency so far - a few anecdotal observations. It's an odd constituency as it's a Con/Lab marginal but all the county councillors are Con/LibDem (half each). Labour is in with a shout everywhere but only has one nailed-on gain.
- Regular Labour voters are quite motivated at the moment, but we're not attracting loads more. Activists reasonably numerous with canvass sessions every day. - Tories are less motivated but generally quite loyal. However, the activist count is well down - they are putting out leaflets and er that's about it. - The Lib Dem vote is down to the fans of the councillors (but there are lots of those) - In this area, UKIP is getting nowhere - no campaign, no leaflets, only marginal detectable support, mostly from previous non-voters. It's possible that some of the "not Labour" voters are switching to them - hard to tell, but if so they're not saying.
Summary: I'm expecting a low poll with perhaps fewer changes than expected.
OK, so I'm going through Greater London's Westminster Constituency 2011 census data, and comparing the White British population (%) with the 2010 Labour vote (%) in each. I do have a trend-line after 25 seats (of a total of 73), but the R-squared value is only 0.5! I.'ll let you know what I get after all 73 have been entered.
If those first 25 datapoints are random you appear to have a highly significant association. The r2 of .5 would decisively reject a null of no association even on a one-way test. Is the slope negative?
Yes it is negative.
But of far more interest, Mrs Stodge and I enjoyed a very pleasant Saturday exploring the Epping-Ongar railway. For me, the two highlights were riding on the top deck of the RT bus from Epping out to Ongar and second the book shop at Ongar station.
A veritable cornucopia of transport literature on offer - perhaps you should find out about the Newbury Park to Ilford Sidings link which closed in 1971.
Mr Stodge did you see my post at the end of the last thread:
Glad you enjoyed it Mr Stodge (and good to meet you on Friday!). Sadly I work on the railway Sundays usually, but it just so happens I was chatting to a bloke from Sevenoaks about Newbury Park to Ilford yesterday - I live just a ten minute walk from the "ghost" bridges over th former alignment. I told him to go on Wiki and check this article out:
Newbury Park to Ilford closed to passengers in 1947, and Seven Kings to Newbury Park closed to freight in 1956. The link you're thinking of is the surface main line link from Stratford (Loughton Junction) to Leyton, wot closed in 1970 to trains and was lifted in 1972.
BBC analysis on immigration poll is misleading, says UKIP.
Nigel Farage MEP, the UKIP leader said: “Looking at the figures which the BBC have quoted in their report, their survey of 1,014 Bulgarian adults showed that 37% had considered moving to another EU state in the past five years (2.7m people); and that 36% intend to work elsewhere in the EU in 2013/14 (2.65m), of which 9.3% (689,000) stated the UK was their destination.
Ruth Lea, Economist and sometime QT panellist, has rejected the [wrongly claimed] soft pudding recipe of the IMF's Chief Economist:
The IMF also downgraded its forecasts for the UK last week, with chief economist Olivier Blanchard saying the Chancellor should ‘reconsider’ his ‘strict’ austerity programme, and Fitch downgraded Britain’s “triple A” rating to AA+.
Ms Lea said: “Aside from the facts that the UK’s austerity programme is not that austere and the deficit in FY 2012 was de facto unchanged from FY2011, Olivier Blanchard’s comments should be treated with extreme caution.
“It [UK] has a very high deficit and a bond market strike cannot be ruled out if the deficit were to be increased substantially by higher spending and/or lower taxes. The chancellor is right, in our view, broadly to stick to his plans.”
Ruth Lea, Economist and sometime QT panellist, has rejected the [wrongly claimed] soft pudding recipe of the IMF's Chief Economist:
The IMF also downgraded its forecasts for the UK last week, with chief economist Olivier Blanchard saying the Chancellor should ‘reconsider’ his ‘strict’ austerity programme, and Fitch downgraded Britain’s “triple A” rating to AA+.
Ms Lea said: “Aside from the facts that the UK’s austerity programme is not that austere and the deficit in FY 2012 was de facto unchanged from FY2011, Olivier Blanchard’s comments should be treated with extreme caution.
“It [UK] has a very high deficit and a bond market strike cannot be ruled out if the deficit were to be increased substantially by higher spending and/or lower taxes. The chancellor is right, in our view, broadly to stick to his plans.”
I wouldn't bet on the quarterly GDP figures showing growth this week.
antifrank, it is sometimes worth looking at unconventional sources to evaluate the consensus option.
Take this small article for example:
GDP Growth in the US stalls, while the UK Gradually Improves
SWIFT, the financial messaging provider for more than 10,000 financial institutions and corporations in 212 countries, has released its latest SWIFT Index data. During Q1 2013, the SWIFT Index captured payments growth level in the UK economy equivalent to a year-on-year GDP growth rate of 1.3%.
By the end of June, the SWIFT Index forecasts the UK economy will continue its recovery, with a year-on-year GDP growth of 1.6% expected.
Using global financial payments volumes based on an average of 2 million SWIFT payments messages per day, the SWIFT Index has successfully predicted OECD GDP growth with limited deviation since its launch in March 2012.
...
“Utilising our own algorithm based on OECD data and SWIFT payments volumes, the SWIFT Index forecasts adjust accordingly on a monthly basis”, commented Andre Boico, Head of Pricing & Analytics, SWIFT. “Varying marginally from the February Index, the March Index indicates that the US economy will grow at a slower rate than previously forecast due to weaker than expected March payments volumes. However, the OECD countries and the UK economy in particular, will continue to experience strong GDP growth in 2013.”
BBC analysis on immigration poll is misleading, says UKIP.
Nigel Farage MEP, the UKIP leader said: “Looking at the figures which the BBC have quoted in their report, their survey of 1,014 Bulgarian adults showed that 37% had considered moving to another EU state in the past five years (2.7m people); and that 36% intend to work elsewhere in the EU in 2013/14 (2.65m), of which 9.3% (689,000) stated the UK was their destination.
apart from the headlines -0.1% or 0.1% are pretty much much of a muchness.
The country will still feel poorer next year than this year as real incomes will be down.
That may be true, but it isn't the same as the feeling of despair and sinking in a sea of uncontrolled debt that we endured with Gordon.
Keep on beating the drum of increased growth, spending and riches for all. The ever diminishing band of gullible fools will worship you for sprinkling copious amounts of precious fiscal fairy dust to keep the nirvana of an easy life alive.
Others will look, learn and understand that fiscal fairy dust is a thing of fiction, they will humour you and continue to struggle through the grind of daily life.
apart from the headlines -0.1% or 0.1% are pretty much much of a muchness.
The country will still feel poorer next year than this year as real incomes will be down.
That may be true, but it isn't the same as the feeling of despair and sinking in a sea of uncontrolled debt that we endured with Gordon. .
Whichever is the best way out of this mess, I think most people feel much worse now than they did under Gordon. Even if things were objectively worse then, after years of crap things feel worse now, and the only difference is people are less angry and just resigned to it now. It's one reason manyTories seem to stop pretending things are going to get better any day now, for realsies, because even if it is true, people don't believe it and it pisses them off.
And in the Eastleigh by election UKIP were claiming four million Bulgarians were coming to Britain, 80% of the 16-64 year olds were all moving to the UK.
No they weren't, they extrapolated data from a poll and said if that poll is correct it would mean...
Bulgarian ambassador agreeing with Paul Nuttall on Nesnight as we speak
And in the Eastleigh by election UKIP were claiming four million Bulgarians were coming to Britain, 80% of the 16-64 year olds were all moving to the UK.
If it were 10% of that, or 8% of the working age Bulgarians it is still 400 000 migrants. Romania has three times the population, so likely to be correspondingly bigger numbers.
As I recall you owe me a pint if more than 50 000 come in the first year from the two countries. I think my bet safer than my liver.
Avery. I'm sure we're all fans of your posting style and your optimism deserves to be bottled for Ranulph Fiennes next trip to the North Pole.....but Ruth Lea!! I'd feel safer letting Suarez loose on my arm than taking notice of that crazy half baked bat
I imagine Broxtowe is not a good area for UKIP due to factors such as a middle-class population and being close to a university.
Some bits ought to be. Some of the parts near the university are Times vs Guardian territory, obviously not good UKIP terrain. But Toton by the proposed HS2 site is Daily Mail territory while the Chilwell area I was in today was traditional WWC. I only met two UKIP voters all day. That doesn't mean there aren't lots more who feel quite attracted to them, but it suggests that just putting up candidates isn't going to produce a rich harvest.
apart from the headlines -0.1% or 0.1% are pretty much much of a muchness.
The country will still feel poorer next year than this year as real incomes will be down.
That may be true, but it isn't the same as the feeling of despair and sinking in a sea of uncontrolled debt that we endured with Gordon. .
Whichever is the best way out of this mess, I think most people feel much worse now than they did under Gordon. Even if things were objectively worse then, after years of crap things feel worse now, and the only difference is people are less angry and just resigned to it now. It's one reason manyTories seem to stop pretending things are going to get better any day now, for realsies, because even if it is true, people don't believe it and it pisses them off.
Decline is not inevitable, though. It is in the Government's power to improve people's lives.
Cameron and Osborne are spinning that their hands are tied, gloom is unavoidable. I don't think this is sensible for them.
And in the Eastleigh by election UKIP were claiming four million Bulgarians were coming to Britain, 80% of the 16-64 year olds were all moving to the UK.
I'm not defending UKIP's general approach to these statistics: the main point, which the BBC have not I have seen really said with the force it should have, is that far fewer people emigrate than say they will. In the current survey, at every stage of being more ready to emigrate, the percentages dropped significantly. When it gets to getting on a plane and saying goodbye, I expect it to be much fewer still. Tens of thousands sounds plausible though; the spread by year I do not know.
We had regional elections in Friuli Venezia Giulia during the weekend....even with their big debacle during the presidential vote which almost destroyed the party, PD (and allies) candidate gained Friuli.....photo finish race again...PD and co 39.39% PdL-Lega-etch 39% Grillo's candidate 19.21%
Well we are going to need to replace the 45 million Brits who are leaving
"Three-quarters of Britons want to emigrate with Australia the most popular destination By DAILY MAIL REPORTER UPDATED: 15:31, 10 May 2010"
The key difference there of course, and the point of UKIPs that you have just helped make, is that Australia can choose how many Brits to let in, where as we can do absolutely nothing about how many people from Bulgaria and Romania come here.
apart from the headlines -0.1% or 0.1% are pretty much much of a muchness.
The country will still feel poorer next year than this year as real incomes will be down.
That may be true, but it isn't the same as the feeling of despair and sinking in a sea of uncontrolled debt that we endured with Gordon. .
Whichever is the best way out of this mess, I think most people feel much worse now than they did under Gordon. Even if things were objectively worse then, after years of crap things feel worse now, and the only difference is people are less angry and just resigned to it now. It's one reason manyTories seem to stop pretending things are going to get better any day now, for realsies, because even if it is true, people don't believe it and it pisses them off.
Decline is not inevitable, though. It is in the Government's power to improve people's lives.
Cameron and Osborne are spinning that their hands are tied, gloom is unavoidable. I don't think this is sensible for them.
If they know that they personally are unable to help, even if theoretically someone could, then it is eminently sensible of them from a political viewpoint to make it seem inevitable.
That said, I don't think decline is inevitable - I just think we've been in effective if not official recession continuously for years, and will be for years to come as 'growth' remains criticially low, and so while simple natural cycles should see us rebound eventually, there's little to be gained from making puffed up promises about improvement, as we have heard for years.
For some reason, some are hanging their hopes on getting credit for predicting improvement eventually coming...on the 20th try. Not likely.
There were some figures out of Romania and Bulgaria that go further than the UK ones you mention: "3% of Bulgarians say they have looked for a job in the UK through a recruitment agency, just over 1% without." "Only just over 1% of Romanians had made any attempt to enquire about job opportunities in the UK."
Together that could be 350,000; and it's a damnsite more convincing figure than the one UKIP are using, even though, as I say, I expect a fraction of that to actually get on the plane.
"Chris Bryant is off message, he is saying big mistakes were made in 2004 re Polish immigration... its made for an economic boom, everyone loves it!"
It's true. I just can't imagine what it was like before the Polish and East European invasion. They've improved the standard of service in the UK to levels previously only seen in Germany Canada and the US. No wonder restaurants are buzzing
Avery. I'm sure we're all fans of your posting style and your optimism deserves to be bottled for Ranulph Fiennes next trip to the North Pole.....but Ruth Lea!! I'd feel safer letting Suarez loose on my arm than taking notice of that crazy half baked bat
Ruth Lea is very small but perfectly formed, Roger. I'll not have a word said against her.
And what is more she made a number of very good points in her report.
But what intrigues me more is the discrepancy between data coming out of the bank payment systems and that compiled by ONS.
Take retail sales for example.
The ONS poll 5,000 businesses to obtain their monthly data and have subsidiary surveys and checks to validate reported figures.
The Visa Expenditure Index is compiled by Markit and is based on hundreds of millions of payment card transactions already aggregated and sub-totalled into merchant sector. In other words it is not so much a sample as an aggregation of real transactions by consumers in shops. Adjustments are made to accommodate the share of card to cash transactions, but this ratio is well known to banks and unlikely to be distorting the index.
Which is more reliable?
Similarly, SWIFT handles almost all international electronic business to business payment transfers. As the article I quote states this amounts to over two million messages per day. Again their index is based on aggregation of real payment transfers rather than selective sampling of businesses.
There does appear to be a mismatch between real payment activity in the economy and the statistical growth reported by the ONS.
I am not saying one or the other source is correct, just that some work needs to be done to analyse and account for the mismatch.
Maybe you could have a word with Sir Robert Chote on this matter over a croissant at Patisserie Valerie?
If you wanted to take it up with Ruth Lea, I fear only L'Escargot or the Gay Hussar would suffice. She is after all the Chief Economist for a banking group with the name of Arbuthnot.
"Chris Bryant is off message, he is saying big mistakes were made in 2004 re Polish immigration... its made for an economic boom, everyone loves it!"
It's true. I just can't imagine what it was like before the Polish and East European invasion. They've improved the standard of service in the UK to standards previously only seen in Germany Canada and the US. No wonder restaurants are buzzing
Actually I have been served by many Eastern Europeans in the last 9 years, including at the checkout of my local Aldi today, and they all seem very nice and polite people. My cousins are half Polish and they are nice too. But all the same, Id like my country to be my country rather than a county in a country called the EU.
Did you tip Andrew Lansley to become Prime Minister?
Yes he did. Both as Leader and as PM. He did it more than once. He seems unaccountably reticent to take the credit for such a prediction now but he did make it. Nor was he joking as he tries to pretend now.
I trust When Robert Chote is offered his knighthood he refuses. I never saw him take much seriously and for some reason I took him to be a lefty but don't quote me or he'll end up eating slugs on "I was a celebrity get me out of here". Anyway now you've got us all anticipating the figures with something approaching excitement someone should open a book
The free movement of persons is one of the core rights guaranteed in the European Economic Area (EEA), the extended Internal Market which unites all the EU Member States and three EEA EFTA States – Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway. It is perhaps the most important right for individuals, as it gives citizens of the 30 EEA countries the opportunity to live, work, establish business and study in any of these countries. The legislation on the free movement of persons aims at eliminating all obstacles to the freedom of movement, and to give the same rights to nationals of an EEA State and their family members within the EEA by eliminating any discrimination on the basis of nationality. To complement and support the principle of the free movement of persons, the EEA Agreement also specifies the rules applicable in the fields of recognition of professional qualifications and social security coordination. Both are necessary to enable people to exercise their fundamental right to free movement effectively.
Isn't it?
I dont know their entire manifesto off by heart, but I would have thought leaving the EU was a start, and would give more power to the UK government and away from Brussels. If it didnt make any difference, why would UKIP even exist?
But you do realise that your comparison with Australia was completely invalid dont you?
@Sam. Well I can't say I mind at all. Infact if it wasn't for a slight and often attractive twang to the accent-and better service as described before- I wouldn't even know.
Having said that Romanians are a different kettle of fish and having seen the havoc they caused in Paris and on the underground in London with some very unpleasant begging techniques I hope people are aware
Australia is irrelevant, the polling on who's intending to emigrate is bobbins, two polls find between 30 and 45 million Brits are leaving, utter crap.
Yes but Australia can pick and choose who they want to let in. You mentioned them, nobody else.
I find myself disagreeing with most of UKIP's policies - on things like wind farms, HS2, leaving the EU, nimbyism, being against house building, etc. The only reason to vote for them is to stick two fingers up at the political establishment.
Well we are going to need to replace the 45 million Brits who are leaving
"Three-quarters of Britons want to emigrate with Australia the most popular destination By DAILY MAIL REPORTER UPDATED: 15:31, 10 May 2010"
Oz is losing its lustre. The economy is in a mess. Chancellor here is heading for another massive deficit and blaming everybody but himself. promised a surplus 200 times in the media this financial year but was never gonna happen when you spend 30 billion quid on broadband and think it is a good use of public money.One can get 50 meg thru current copper system and 100 meg thru the new Rolls Royce system when a Ford or Toyota level would have been more than adequate.
Economy based way too much on mining and prices in iron ore and coal and gold mean tax takes are far lower. 2 mining states still doing OK, NT and WA, 3 doing poorly QLD, NSW and VIC, and two totally rooted SA and TAS. When you go environmental and shut timber industries down and charge people a carbon tax 7 times the current world price to be a world leader when everybody else is looking after jobs then things go badly.
Tourism the other variable industry is now way too expensive as SeanT mentioned in his trip to Oz recently.
It should be noted there are Tory pollies in the Oz federal parliament who have NEVER seen Labour run a surplus in their lifetimes, whereas it was the norm under the Tory governents of Howard and Costello. Labour cannot stop spending and the unions have more say than they should which makes hiring people cost effectively and sacking them if they are crap is very difficult.
@Sam. Well I can't say I mind at all. Infact if it wasn't for a slight and often attractive twang to the accent-and better service as described before- I wouldn't even know.
Having said that Romanians are a different kettle of fish and having seen the havoc they caused in Paris and on the underground in London with some very unpleasant begging techniques I hope people are aware
I think you're confusing Romanians with the Roma people!
There were some figures out of Romania and Bulgaria that go further than the UK ones you mention: "3% of Bulgarians say they have looked for a job in the UK through a recruitment agency, just over 1% without." "Only just over 1% of Romanians had made any attempt to enquire about job opportunities in the UK."
Together that could be 350,000; and it's a damnsite more convincing figure than the one UKIP are using, even though, as I say, I expect a fraction of that to actually get on the plane.
This assumes that the Romanians and Bulgarians who come to the UK are looking for a job.............!
@Sam. Well I can't say I mind at all. Infact if it wasn't for a slight and often attractive twang to the accent-and better service as described before- I wouldn't even know.
Having said that Romanians are a different kettle of fish and having seen the havoc they caused in Paris and on the underground in London with some very unpleasant begging techniques I hope people are aware
I was mugged outside the main train station in Milan by, what I think were, non Italian gypsies, I couldnt say where they were from.. this would have been in 2002 I believe... and once on the tube by a black bloke saying he had a knife. But I dont dislike gypsies or black people, I know there is good and bad in everyone/race/country. Even so I still like the idea of different nations having their own identity, I think it makes the world a more interesting place.
Where in S of F do you live? Or is that a in joke? I spend a little bit of time each year in Antibes, beautiful place.
I find myself disagreeing with most of UKIP's policies - on things like wind farms, HS2, leaving the EU, nimbyism, being against house building, etc. The only reason to vote for them is to stick two fingers up at the political establishment.
OMG! .......being against house building! AndyJS does come out with some whoppers. I suppose he thinks that UKIP policy is to house people in tents, yurts, wigwams or Wembley Stadium. LOL
Nigel Farage was on Radio Four's Westminster Hour programme yesterday confirming that he is against a programme of house building, and that empty properties in towns and cities should be used instead.
"Where in S of F do you live? Or is that a in joke? I spend a little bit of time each year in Antibes, beautiful place."
Antibes is beautiful as is most of the Cote D'Azur. My place is in Villefranche and I wouldn't say I live there but I spend quite a lot of time there.
My friend has a place in the old town, that part of the world is so beautiful. Amazing it is only 1 1/2 hours away ... another friends father in law had a place in Eze, built into the cliff.. he is a v rich S African who has a hotel chain and casinos...possibly not a left winger!!!!
OK, just put the last of the 73 Greater London seats in Excel to see if there was a trend between the % of White British population in 2011 versus Labour % vote at GE 2010.
Definitely a negative trend, with an R-squared value of almost exactly 0.6.
Would attach a pic of the graph if Vanilla let me (one advantage of the old Disqus - perhaps the only one!).
"Thatcher only got selected as the Conservative candidate for Finchley because a supporter rigged the vote. Her main rival was Thomas Langton, holder of the Military Cross and described by someone at the selection meeting as a "one-legged brigadier". In the final vote, Thatcher supposedly won by 46 votes to 43. But Bertie Blatch, the association chairman, later told his son (who was interviewed by Moore): "She didn't actually win. The man did, but I thought, 'He's got a silver spoon in his mouth. He'll get another seat. So I 'lost' two of his votes and gave them to her."
Comments
I shan't be betting on this market. Very much a shot in the dark, I suspect.
Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) is estimated to have fallen by about a quarter from its post-war peak of £158.9 billion (11.2 per cent of GDP) in 2009-10 to £121.0 billion (7.9 per cent of GDP) in 2011-12. We forecast that it will come in at £86.5 billion (5.6 per cent of GDP) this year, but this figure is flattered by Government policy decisions that have a temporary impact on the deficit.
Excluding the decisions to transfer the Royal Mail’s historic pension assets to the public sector, and the surpluses in the Bank of England’s Asset Purchase Facility (APF) to the Exchequer, the underlying PSNB is expected to be little changed this year or next from the figure recorded in 2011-12. Specifically, we forecast an underlying deficit of £120.9 billion (7.8 per cent of GDP) in 2012-13, and £119.8 billion (7.5 per cent of GDP) in 2013-14.
I think IOS is on the bottle again.
Nothing stopping the US applying for membership right now, IMHO! If we can let in Mozambique, we can let in the Americans!
But those figures speak for themselves. Osborbe will be £119.8 billion off.
Each and every year.
What an absolute failure. Shares for rights (yup that nonsense) has just been blown out the water.
Hopefully his disastrous housing policy will be soon as well.
UKIP's fortunes have almost certainly risen since then. The question is by how much?
Over 20? Possible.
In 2009-10, the last year of Gordon's shambolic rule, the government borrowed £158.9 bn. This was the largest amount borrowed by a government in a single year since WWII.
In 2012-13, under George Osborne, the government will borrow £86.5 bn according the OBR's latest forecast which was based on 10 months known outputs and two months forecast.
Gordon's borrowing amounted to 11.2% of GDP. George's will amount to 5.6% of GDP.
George will have reduced borrowing by 46% over this period.
The figure of £119.8 is an estimate by the OBR of what they call the "underlying deficit". In other words it is what George would have had to borrow had he not reduced borrowing with non-recurring receipts.
Understand?
Good! Now carry on drinking.
It's what passes for a growth strategy for this government. The only growth strategy Cameron has is for UKIP with his welfare and europe bashing.
I don't think that simply paying tax should entitle you to vote. That all feels a bit 19thC to me. What about those citizens who pay no tax? Should they be denied the vote?
I doubt that the Irish in 1950 would have wanted to be in the Commonwealth. We might think of it as HMQ smiling benignly at foreign leaders from the Empire. The Irish associate it with Oliver Cromwell's New Model Army and the havoc he wrought; nor did the Irish then have much love for the English Crown or any of its institutions.
He began to wax lyrical. "I think the last one I bought was from the West Cornwall Pasty Company. I seem to remember I was in Leeds station at the time and the choice was whether to have one of their small ones or one of their large ones. I have got a feeling I opted for the large one, and very good it was too."
Cammie's political epitaph will be replete with such wonders.
I reported a few days back that Assad's forces were on the counter offensive, throwing rebels back in a number of areas and at least temporarily securing some key areas around the cities that dot the vital North South Syrian artery.
It appears Assad's forces have had some help from Hizbollah, who have reportedly brought in around 2000 troops to the central areas, Homs province, to spearhead operations there. Such focussed use of Hizbollah troops has been noted in this region before with good results and they come in a serious push.
The problem for Assad, however remain the same, is that he simply doesn't control large tracts of the country. The cities, by and large, he still a has hold in, however tenuous in many places. These counters, however, can't be ignored
No more boom & bust ring any bells?
With the Blessed Margaret passing there are now three vacancies.
Do we think that our Tone will become "The Right Honourable Sir Anthony Charles Lynton Blair, KG PC" tomorrow?
He hasn't been too keen on honours up to now but Cherie may have been persuaded by the pomp and circumstance of Maggie's funeral to keep onside with Her Majesty.
Tony would probably have the option to become a Thistle Knight rather than a Garter but this is probably an option more applicable to Gordon, if or when an offer is made.
The comment by the US representative that they would not allow the FTT to happen is interesting. I wonder how they intend doing that.
You have no idea for how long and how intensely the Irish have hated the English. Disputes between close neighbours, indeed family relations, are far more intense than those between more distant acquaintances.
Also, the British withdrew from India within, what? 50 years or so of demands for independence and didn't leave behind a colony. It took over a century for the British to get that message in Ireland and, even when they left, one of the main political parties was prepared to look kindly on insurrection by a part of the military in order to allow a gerrymandered British statelet to remain.
Those wounds don't heal easily as we've seen to our cost.
OK, 32 seats in, R-squared only 0.54.
On the plus side, it seems that the eagerly awaited third Gentlemen Bastard book, Republic of Thieves, may be out this year, in October.
I think stand-alone novels that occur in a common world with overlapping charactrs (and sometimes the same ones entirely) work pretty well. The problem with a series is that sometimes the instalments can take a long time to come and the weight of their own plot can make things tricky (a bit like in Metal Gear Solid 4 where the lore of the previous 3 games was like a kind of verbal Japanese knotweed).
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dHhQdTdUTkJJNjc1a3dsTDlwMEpsbWc#gid=0
Is the slope negative?
S Jackson is a pillock of the highest order but he's right in a number of ways about some of the problems facing my home city.
A veritable cornucopia of transport literature on offer - perhaps you should find out about the Newbury Park to Ilford Sidings link which closed in 1971.
To be honest, I would have expected something like 0.65.
I also wouldn't bet on there being fewer than 100,000 Romanians and Bulgarians coming to Britain within two years of the restrictions being lifted.
- Regular Labour voters are quite motivated at the moment, but we're not attracting loads more. Activists reasonably numerous with canvass sessions every day.
- Tories are less motivated but generally quite loyal. However, the activist count is well down - they are putting out leaflets and er that's about it.
- The Lib Dem vote is down to the fans of the councillors (but there are lots of those)
- In this area, UKIP is getting nowhere - no campaign, no leaflets, only marginal detectable support, mostly from previous non-voters. It's possible that some of the "not Labour" voters are switching to them - hard to tell, but if so they're not saying.
Summary: I'm expecting a low poll with perhaps fewer changes than expected.
Glad you enjoyed it Mr Stodge (and good to meet you on Friday!). Sadly I work on the railway Sundays usually, but it just so happens I was chatting to a bloke from Sevenoaks about Newbury Park to Ilford yesterday - I live just a ten minute walk from the "ghost" bridges over th former alignment. I told him to go on Wiki and check this article out:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fairlop_Loop
Newbury Park to Ilford closed to passengers in 1947, and Seven Kings to Newbury Park closed to freight in 1956. The link you're thinking of is the surface main line link from Stratford (Loughton Junction) to Leyton, wot closed in 1970 to trains and was lifted in 1972.
Nigel Farage MEP, the UKIP leader said: “Looking at the figures which the BBC have quoted in their report, their survey of 1,014 Bulgarian adults showed that 37% had considered moving to another EU state in the past five years (2.7m people); and that 36% intend to work elsewhere in the EU in 2013/14 (2.65m), of which 9.3% (689,000) stated the UK was their destination.
The IMF also downgraded its forecasts for the UK last week, with chief economist Olivier Blanchard saying the Chancellor should ‘reconsider’ his ‘strict’ austerity programme, and Fitch downgraded Britain’s “triple A” rating to AA+.
Ms Lea said: “Aside from the facts that the UK’s austerity programme is not that austere and the deficit in FY 2012 was de facto unchanged from FY2011, Olivier Blanchard’s comments should be treated with extreme caution.
“It [UK] has a very high deficit and a bond market strike cannot be ruled out if the deficit were to be increased substantially by higher spending and/or lower taxes. The chancellor is right, in our view, broadly to stick to his plans.”
Does anypne find wobbly Blancmange palatable?
Rightwing Tory fruitloop?
apart from the headlines -0.1% or 0.1% are pretty much much of a muchness.
The country will still feel poorer next year than this year as real incomes will be down.
Take this small article for example:
GDP Growth in the US stalls, while the UK Gradually Improves
SWIFT, the financial messaging provider for more than 10,000 financial institutions and corporations in 212 countries, has released its latest SWIFT Index data. During Q1 2013, the SWIFT Index captured payments growth level in the UK economy equivalent to a year-on-year GDP growth rate of 1.3%.
By the end of June, the SWIFT Index forecasts the UK economy will continue its recovery, with a year-on-year GDP growth of 1.6% expected.
Using global financial payments volumes based on an average of 2 million SWIFT payments messages per day, the SWIFT Index has successfully predicted OECD GDP growth with limited deviation since its launch in March 2012.
...
“Utilising our own algorithm based on OECD data and SWIFT payments volumes, the SWIFT Index forecasts adjust accordingly on a monthly basis”, commented Andre Boico, Head of Pricing & Analytics, SWIFT. “Varying marginally from the February Index, the March Index indicates that the US economy will grow at a slower rate than previously forecast due to weaker than expected March payments volumes. However, the OECD countries and the UK economy in particular, will continue to experience strong GDP growth in 2013.”
And we all know the power of algorithms on PB.
His tweet earlier used the correct figure: 37% of around 5m.
Keep on beating the drum of increased growth, spending and riches for all. The ever diminishing band of gullible fools will worship you for sprinkling copious amounts of precious fiscal fairy dust to keep the nirvana of an easy life alive.
Others will look, learn and understand that fiscal fairy dust is a thing of fiction, they will humour you and continue to struggle through the grind of daily life.
Only 23 left, Mr Surbiton!
It is the reason I am eating caviar and Pork is still on acorns.
I imagine Broxtowe is not a good area for UKIP due to factors such as a middle-class population and being close to a university.
Ah two such fine examples of racial harmony
Oh noes.
No they weren't, they extrapolated data from a poll and said if that poll is correct it would mean...
Bulgarian ambassador agreeing with Paul Nuttall on Nesnight as we speak
As I recall you owe me a pint if more than 50 000 come in the first year from the two countries. I think my bet safer than my liver.
Cameron and Osborne are spinning that their hands are tied, gloom is unavoidable. I don't think this is sensible for them.
The GhostTowns.com website has been visited an amazing 11,888 times since 25th March 1998:
http://www.ghosttowns.com/
http://dish.andrewsullivan.com/2013/04/22/the-web-that-was/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk:80/comment/cartoon/
Mainly thanks to a good candidate
The key difference there of course, and the point of UKIPs that you have just helped make, is that Australia can choose how many Brits to let in, where as we can do absolutely nothing about how many people from Bulgaria and Romania come here.
That said, I don't think decline is inevitable - I just think we've been in effective if not official recession continuously for years, and will be for years to come as 'growth' remains criticially low, and so while simple natural cycles should see us rebound eventually, there's little to be gained from making puffed up promises about improvement, as we have heard for years.
For some reason, some are hanging their hopes on getting credit for predicting improvement eventually coming...on the 20th try. Not likely.
There were some figures out of Romania and Bulgaria that go further than the UK ones you mention: "3% of Bulgarians say they have looked for a job in the UK through a recruitment agency, just over 1% without." "Only just over 1% of Romanians had made any attempt to enquire about job opportunities in the UK."
Together that could be 350,000; and it's a damnsite more convincing figure than the one UKIP are using, even though, as I say, I expect a fraction of that to actually get on the plane.
"Chris Bryant is off message, he is saying big mistakes were made in 2004 re Polish immigration... its made for an economic boom, everyone loves it!"
It's true. I just can't imagine what it was like before the Polish and East European invasion. They've improved the standard of service in the UK to levels previously only seen in Germany Canada and the US. No wonder restaurants are buzzing
And what is more she made a number of very good points in her report.
But what intrigues me more is the discrepancy between data coming out of the bank payment systems and that compiled by ONS.
Take retail sales for example.
The ONS poll 5,000 businesses to obtain their monthly data and have subsidiary surveys and checks to validate reported figures.
The Visa Expenditure Index is compiled by Markit and is based on hundreds of millions of payment card transactions already aggregated and sub-totalled into merchant sector. In other words it is not so much a sample as an aggregation of real transactions by consumers in shops. Adjustments are made to accommodate the share of card to cash transactions, but this ratio is well known to banks and unlikely to be distorting the index.
Which is more reliable?
Similarly, SWIFT handles almost all international electronic business to business payment transfers. As the article I quote states this amounts to over two million messages per day. Again their index is based on aggregation of real payment transfers rather than selective sampling of businesses.
There does appear to be a mismatch between real payment activity in the economy and the statistical growth reported by the ONS.
I am not saying one or the other source is correct, just that some work needs to be done to analyse and account for the mismatch.
Maybe you could have a word with Sir Robert Chote on this matter over a croissant at Patisserie Valerie?
If you wanted to take it up with Ruth Lea, I fear only L'Escargot or the Gay Hussar would suffice. She is after all the Chief Economist for a banking group with the name of Arbuthnot.
I trust When Robert Chote is offered his knighthood he refuses. I never saw him take much seriously and for some reason I took him to be a lefty but don't quote me or he'll end up eating slugs on "I was a celebrity get me out of here". Anyway now you've got us all anticipating the figures with something approaching excitement someone should open a book
But you do realise that your comparison with Australia was completely invalid dont you?
Having said that Romanians are a different kettle of fish and having seen the havoc they caused in Paris and on the underground in London with some very unpleasant begging techniques I hope people are aware
The economy is in a mess.
Chancellor here is heading for another massive deficit and blaming everybody but himself. promised a surplus 200 times in the media this financial year but was never gonna happen when you spend 30 billion quid on broadband and think it is a good use of public money.One can get 50 meg thru current copper system and 100 meg thru the new Rolls Royce system when a Ford or Toyota level would have been more than adequate.
Economy based way too much on mining and prices in iron ore and coal and gold mean tax takes are far lower. 2 mining states still doing OK, NT and WA, 3 doing poorly QLD, NSW and VIC, and two totally rooted SA and TAS.
When you go environmental and shut timber industries down and charge people a carbon tax 7 times the current world price to be a world leader when everybody else is looking after jobs then things go badly.
Tourism the other variable industry is now way too expensive as SeanT mentioned in his trip to Oz recently.
It should be noted there are Tory pollies in the Oz federal parliament who have NEVER seen Labour run a surplus in their lifetimes, whereas it was the norm under the Tory governents of Howard and Costello.
Labour cannot stop spending and the unions have more say than they should which makes hiring people cost effectively and sacking them if they are crap is very difficult.
Where in S of F do you live? Or is that a in joke? I spend a little bit of time each year in Antibes, beautiful place.
"Where in S of F do you live? Or is that a in joke? I spend a little bit of time each year in Antibes, beautiful place."
Antibes is beautiful as is most of the Cote D'Azur. My place is in Villefranche and I wouldn't say I live there but I spend quite a lot of time there.
Nigel Farage was on Radio Four's Westminster Hour programme yesterday confirming that he is against a programme of house building, and that empty properties in towns and cities should be used instead.
"#Thatcher only got selected as the Conservative candidate for Finchley because a supporter rigged the vote."
https://twitter.com/search?q=thatcher finchley&src=typd
The article is currently embargoed:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/apr/22/removed-embargoed-politics-article
Chaque un a son gout!
If you squeezed tim in between the two gals in your avatar I would expect him to quickly change his mind.
Definitely a negative trend, with an R-squared value of almost exactly 0.6.
Would attach a pic of the graph if Vanilla let me (one advantage of the old Disqus - perhaps the only one!).
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/apr/23/margaret-thatcher-six-things-know