Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » S. Shields Ukip share – I’m taking a punt at 6/1 that it’
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » S. Shields Ukip share – I’m taking a punt at 6/1 that it’ll be 30-40%
Ladbrokes has a new market up on what will the UKIP vote share be in the S.Shields byelection.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Oh Boy,oh Boy, what have you done?
Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said Britain’s tax authorities have increased the amount of money collected from wealthy individuals by 10 percent.
The Revenue and Customs High Net Worth Unit that deals with the tax affairs of about 5,800 people with wealth of at least 20 million pounds ($34 million) raised about 220 million pounds in the tax year that ran through March, compared with 200 million pounds in the previous tax year, according to the Treasury.
The effort is “a demonstration not just of our seriousness of intent when it comes to improving our fight against tax avoidance, but actually the fact that we are getting better results and getting more money in,” Osborne told reporters in Washington ahead of the publication of the figures in London today.
Osborne is seeking to show voters that he’s making the rich contribute to Britain’s austerity program. The opposition Labour Party has attacked his decision to reduce the top rate of income tax to 45 percent from 50 percent earlier this month.
Osborne on April 9 gave individuals evading tax through the Isle of Man, Guernsey and Jersey three years to pay up or face prosecution. The top 1 percent of earners paid 26.5 percent of total income tax in the fiscal year that ran through March.
No wonder Ed Miliband has been looking so pasty today.
Farage needs to lodge a hook firmly on the parapet of the media wall if he is going to climb upward fast.
Joking apart, the view from Guernsey is that the coalition has been a lot more determined in going after tax avoidance than the previous government - ask all those laid off when LVCR was closed and Amazon no longer shipped DVDs from Jersey....
On topic - all a bit random with turnout and a very short campaign key known unknowns...
"Ultra-liberal Iceland wants to ban online pornography. It is just the latest step in its attempts to eliminate the sex industry entirely":
http://www.economist.com/news/international/21576366-iceland-determined-outlaw-worlds-oldest-business-can-it-succeed-naked-ambition
The Respect MP has threatened "to tell the whole truth" after Labour figures dismissed claims he could rejoin the party."
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/04/what-did-galloway-and-miliband-really-discuss
If you lie down with dogs.....
Ukip has proved to be very effective at creating a presence.
R
What does 'liberal' mean? The current government is social democratic/Red-Green, which because of the prevailing Nordic climate has a radical feminist agenda. In a few days' time, there will probably be a liberal-led or conservative-led government, which may or may not proceed with the plans - the article glosses over the significance of the election with a short hurried paragraph.
Is it a 6/1 shot? Probably that's just about right. They'd need the non-Lab/UKIP vote to be no higher than 20%, which is possible on a split of Con 10, LD 5, Oth 5. Even then, they'd need to take some Labour share as we know that a fair bit of the LD slump is their voters going to Labour rather than UKIP. That's a tough ask, though possible, and a score in the mid- to high-twenties seems more likely.
Bit complex that for yer average lefty ?
Is that report credible? I cant imagine that Miliband really asked Galloway why he left Labour.
on topic - I'm not really tempted by any of the odds, just because there's a by-election doesnt mean we have to bet on it
http://www.wisegeek.com/what-is-socialized-medicine.htm#did-you-know
It will also be interesting to see how Farage and co focus their campaign in a seat that's very different to Eastleigh.
I can see why, but its just too delicious to contemplate seriously.
We can only imagine the 'does not compute!' reactions of the eds and the incandescence of McCluskey. Sadly, I think imagine is all we will ever be able to do.
Don't worry, she isn't a Wing Commander now. She's a "communications strategy consultant" so should fit in quite nicely at Westminster.
I'm confused as to how tax collection on the highest performing tenth of that group - which ought on the face of it to raise over £1.3bn, raises just a fifth of that. (£220m across 5,800 people is around £40,000.) The only thing would be if the most wealthy individuals were considerably different to the highest earning individuals and I would be surprised if that were enough to explain the difference. Perhaps they are.
[Edit: Not exactly sure which of the Newsnight figures Farage is using; 31% of Bulgarians said they intended to go and work abroad in either 2013 or 2014, of which a third said the UK, and so on. Anyway, the fact is that 400,000 Romanians or Bulgarians said they were actively looking to emigrate to Britain, which I think is an order of magnitude too high.]
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7323
At least Farage probably knows he's talking rubbish. I suspect others may believe it.
Most of the Nordic countries have long since departed from that by implementing the Swedish law on prostitution.
"The Treasury said the revenue brought in by the specialist unit, which employs 380 staff across the U.K., is in addition to the tax normally collected from wealthy taxpayers and would have gone unpaid without the unit's intervention due to taxpayer error, avoidance or evasion. "
http://www.euroinvestor.com/news/2013/04/22/uk-claims-small-win-on-tax-avoidance/12299374
Thus it is really these numbers of interest:
"-brought in GBP220 million in tax revenue in the past tax year, which ended on April 5, compared to the GBP200 million raised in 2011/2012 tax year and the GBP162 million raised in 2010/2011."
At a guesstimate the group's overall income tax take might be £2bn to £5bn (I don't know the skew you see and this is a bit of a guess).
[Edit: I see @Neil got there first.]
5:05PM
It is now liberal to be illiberal. Free speech? For it, unless it is illiberal....
I would say that you cannot have selected socialism - you either have a socialist state or you do not. Socialised for me is a much more sector specific term and implies a collective decision that some things are better run and organised by the state, and funded through taxation. In the UK, that would include health, education, the road system, the courts, the police setvice, the armed services and so on. And because it is a collective decision, these things can be privatised too, if there is the will to do so. Tough it is probably fair to say that the armed services will always be socialised, unless we get rid of them completely.
Tim, we obviously disagree on the motivation behind Enoch Powells speech, and I dont want to argue over that, but one thing he is acknowledged to have correctly predicted were the numbers in terms of % of the population of immigrants in 2000 based on the 1968 levels. As his name is mud now, nobody cares much to mention that.
My only prediction on this would be that if Farage, UKIP, The Daily Mail etc are correct on the numbers, the left wing posters on here will ignore that and repeatedly distract us with data "showing" how great mass immigration is for the economy, educational standards, etc
In a year we will know, hope whoever was wrong is big enough to concede it.
[2010/11 to 2012/13 shows a rise of over a third. Earlier figures would be useful, if the group existed.]
HMRC’s High Net Worth Unit (HNWU) – which deals with the tax affairs of 5,800 people with assets in excess of £20 million – increased its yield from tax enquiries by 10 per cent in the 2012/13 tax year, having collected £200 million in 2011/12.
The unit has increased its revenues from the UK’s richest taxpayers every year since it was established in 2009, raising a total of £665 million in additional tax over the last four years. This revenue is in addition to the taxes HMRC normally collects from this group of wealthy individuals and is the result of enquiries.
Now all we need to do is enquire of Neil how he came to know this information.
Link to official HMRC press release: http://bit.ly/ZIb4PL
Kidding, I promise I do not work for HMRC.
EDIT: I see the problem: 1.8m is the 36%, not the total population.
The uncertainty is considerable (according to their standard model, 97% of the cut would be made back from behavioral factors; I think that demonstrates the problem.
(I know you know full well what I mean and are using distraction techniques as you will if the number of Bulgarians and Romanians is anywhere near what the people you disagree with politically predict)
Most people who sare anti immigration measure it by the effect on their everyday life ie High Street rather than data and statistics. Thats why the left seem baffled by peoples complaints even though some spreadsheet doesnt tally and so have to dismiss as anecdotes opinions that dont suit.
The National Statistic Institute (NSI) says the number of residents dropped by almost 206,000 to 47.1m - the decline entirely accounted for by foreigners."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22251840
Ah, yes, but try combining the impacts of all the measures from all their budgets! I know it's hard because I spent an afternoon trying to do it when tim claimed that Osborne was favouring his privileged family and friends with his Budget decisions.
In 2012 locals 6,751 voted in person and 14,570 by post in SS wards.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22244809#TWEET731062
To bring matters back on topic, that's precisely the sort of stat that UKIP could very handily use in South Shields, not least because the data source isn't tainted with anti-immigrationism.
5:37PM
Has anyone from NuLabour apologised yet for importing millions of third world Labour voters? Thought not. (ps as they're non white it's racist...)
Stereotype, you say? Doesn't stop those on the other side of the argument.
http://order-order.com/2013/04/22/whatsa-matter-eu-labour-euro-candidates-are-failed-italian-politicians/
She has a SpAd but never elected to the Parliament (and there has not been elections in 2007)
A bit of accurancy would be welcomed sometimes.
@Neil, not sure that's the way to look at it. Even if the accession of the A8 states was positive overall (as I and you think) it still put much more pressure on public services, and so on, than was forecast. Plenty of reasons why one might wish to have an apology.
My original point was that if UKIP, The Daily Mail etc are correct with their forecasts then I wonder if the left will be good enough to admit it... I said I feared they would ignore that and use the perceived benfits of mass immigration as a distraction...
Thanks to tim, Neil and Anorak for proving me right a year early x
Although I was trying to satirise the absurd anecdote-driven rhetoric that always accompanies any debate on immigration. Always easy to find a story to support your point of view, however extreme that view may be.
It shows that the top 1% of income earners have paid a greater proportion of the total income tax yield in every year of this government than in any year of the previous Labour government(s).
The proportions for the Coalition are (2009-10) 26.5%, (2010-11) 25.0%, (2011-12) 27.4% and (2012-13) 26.5% (last two figures latest estimates).
The highest share recorded under Labour since 1999-2000 is 24.4% in (2007-8) although the figures for the following year are missing from the series.
Of course, all these figures are pre-implementation of the 45% top rate of income tax and do not take into account changes in tax reliefs and other taxes.
It may be a starting point though in your battle with tim. Download link for the curious or obsessive: http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/statistics/tax-statistics/table2-4.xls
Yeah, I was making a partisan pro-immigration point (in my defence there are enough partisan anti-immigration points made!). Regarding apologising for the initial estimates - well, they were only estimates, an important question is how any weaknesses in the forecasts were explained. I dont think you can blame politicians and other policy makers for relying on the only estimates they had available.
“What makes Spain unique from other countries is the sheer volume of empty homes we have, combined with the economic situation,” said Acuna.
That’s a legacy of Spain’s construction boom, which saw 675,000 homes built per year from 1997 to 2006, according to a report by a unit of the Cajamar savings bank. That’s more than France, Germany and the U.K. combined. The building frenzy resulted in a surplus of about 2 million empty homes that will take between seven and 13 years to absorb, Acuna says.
Acuna says the problem will get worse as the economy deteriorates.
The recession, Spain’s second since 2008, is extending into the first quarter amid weak domestic demand, the Bank of Spain said March 26. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said last month he expects the economy will probably contract by more than the government’s forecast of 0.5 percent as the deepest austerity measures in the nation’s democratic history jeopardize a return to growth initially expected in the second half.
The International Monetary Fund expects the economy to shrink about 1.6 percent this year and unemployment to peak at 27 percent.
It does put the UK's "housing crisis" and state of the economy in perspective doesn't it?
p.s. Acuna = Fernando Rodriguez de Acuna Martinez, a partner at Madrid-based real estate consultant Acuna & Asociados.
Anyway, the argument isn't with anyone in particular. It's about being informed.
5:48PM
Just look at the demographic shift in seats like Brent North, Ealing North, etc.
Maybe I am wrong, and they all vote Tory. But I doubt it.
ps-EU immigrants mostly cannot vote in GEs.
Gordon Reece, the public relations guru who had worked for the Conservative party since the early 1970s, was instrumental in transforming Mrs Thatcher’s presentational skills, including her voice.
She, however, was a little slow in realising Reece’s full importance. That was certainly his opinion.
In 1981, she offered him the CBE. He wrote back, with icy anger: “It is my
view that with the exception of yourself, no member of the Conservative Party contributed more effectively to the result of the 1979 election than I did ... Not that such services demand a knighthood ... But I respectfully suggest that that or nothing were the alternatives ... I am conscious of the honourable estate of the CBE. In the circumstances I would prefer not to accept it.”
Reece was eventually rewarded with a knighthood in 1986.
PS. I only ever voted Labour at a GE in 1997, and at Locals in 1998.
When tim's involved it is much more than being informed. It is about being armed and equipped for battle.
Backing the two ranges from 20 to 40 looks the way to go.
The number of brown-skinned immigrants in Scotland is relatively low, but it was only there that Labour's vote went up in 2010. It is also the case that immigrants are actually the least likely to vote in elections
From Margaret Thatcher to the Nazis: let's not go down memorial lane
So the Iron Lady had a hero's sendoff. But twisting the public's memory can never end well – just look at the Third Reich
http://www.guardian.co.uk/artanddesign/jonathanjonesblog/2013/apr/22/margaret-thatcher-nazi-memorials
I dont understand why pro immigration people try to pretend that the numbers will not be as big as they always turn out to be. Being pro immigration is a reasonable enough position, why not just say " There will be hundreds of thousands of immigrants, and it will be for the greater good" rather than pretend there wont be very many, then switch the argument when there are?
Immigrants are less likely to vote because EU immigrants can, on the whole, not vote. So a significant proportion are, or do not want to become, eligible.
NuLabour handed out passports and so full voting rights like confetti to Third world immigrants. Figures are easily available, look them up. All Third world Commonwealth immigrants can also vote in GEs. A disgrace where there are no reciprocal rights.
It would be an insult to Mandie to suppose he was not aware this would produce a Labour voting block.