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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » S. Shields Ukip share – I’m taking a punt at 6/1 that it’

SystemSystem Posts: 12,179
edited April 2013 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » S. Shields Ukip share – I’m taking a punt at 6/1 that it’ll be 30-40%

Ladbrokes has a new market up on what will the UKIP vote share be in the S.Shields byelection.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    30%+ on a low turnout looks possible - certainly the leadership ratings show no enthusiasm for Labour or Ed.



  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    And now for some very good news. This time on the "omnishambles" budget

    Oh Boy,oh Boy, what have you done?

    Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said Britain’s tax authorities have increased the amount of money collected from wealthy individuals by 10 percent.

    The Revenue and Customs High Net Worth Unit that deals with the tax affairs of about 5,800 people with wealth of at least 20 million pounds ($34 million) raised about 220 million pounds in the tax year that ran through March, compared with 200 million pounds in the previous tax year, according to the Treasury.

    The effort is “a demonstration not just of our seriousness of intent when it comes to improving our fight against tax avoidance, but actually the fact that we are getting better results and getting more money in,” Osborne told reporters in Washington ahead of the publication of the figures in London today.

    Osborne is seeking to show voters that he’s making the rich contribute to Britain’s austerity program. The opposition Labour Party has attacked his decision to reduce the top rate of income tax to 45 percent from 50 percent earlier this month.

    Osborne on April 9 gave individuals evading tax through the Isle of Man, Guernsey and Jersey three years to pay up or face prosecution. The top 1 percent of earners paid 26.5 percent of total income tax in the fiscal year that ran through March.


    No wonder Ed Miliband has been looking so pasty today.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    On topic. I can't help but feel that South Shields is going to be drowned out by the collective silence of the media on UKIP in the run up to the Council Elections.

    Farage needs to lodge a hook firmly on the parapet of the media wall if he is going to climb upward fast.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    ALP - that extra pays for both Fatcha's and Blairs funeral - job done ;)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    AveryLP said:

    Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said Britain’s tax authorities have increased the amount of money collected from wealthy individuals by 10 percent.

    Would never have happened under a Labour government!

    Joking apart, the view from Guernsey is that the coalition has been a lot more determined in going after tax avoidance than the previous government - ask all those laid off when LVCR was closed and Amazon no longer shipped DVDs from Jersey....

    On topic - all a bit random with turnout and a very short campaign key known unknowns...

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2013
    O/T:

    "Ultra-liberal Iceland wants to ban online pornography. It is just the latest step in its attempts to eliminate the sex industry entirely":

    http://www.economist.com/news/international/21576366-iceland-determined-outlaw-worlds-oldest-business-can-it-succeed-naked-ambition
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    "What did Galloway and Miliband really discuss?
    The Respect MP has threatened "to tell the whole truth" after Labour figures dismissed claims he could rejoin the party."

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/04/what-did-galloway-and-miliband-really-discuss

    If you lie down with dogs.....
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    AndyJS said:

    O/T:

    "Ultra-liberal Iceland wants to ban online pornography. It is just the latest step in its attempts to eliminate the sex industry entirely":

    http://www.economist.com/news/international/21576366-iceland-determined-outlaw-worlds-oldest-business-can-it-succeed-naked-ambition

    To be fair they're talking more about violent porn than 'all' porn, but it's the definition of what is for example 'degrading' is somewhat problematic.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    I disagree. The national media has only a small part to play shaping opinion in a by-election. The Ukip man was getting good local coverage even before DM resigned and he comes over as an effective local campaigner.

    Ukip has proved to be very effective at creating a presence.
    R
    AveryLP said:

    On topic. I can't help but feel that South Shields is going to be drowned out by the collective silence of the media on UKIP in the run up to the Council Elections.

    Farage needs to lodge a hook firmly on the parapet of the media wall if he is going to climb upward fast.

    AveryLP said:

    On topic. I can't help but feel that South Shields is going to be drowned out by the collective silence of the media on UKIP in the run up to the Council Elections.

    Farage needs to lodge a hook firmly on the parapet of the media wall if he is going to climb upward fast.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    AndyJS said:

    O/T:

    "Ultra-liberal Iceland wants to ban online pornography. It is just the latest step in its attempts to eliminate the sex industry entirely":

    http://www.economist.com/news/international/21576366-iceland-determined-outlaw-worlds-oldest-business-can-it-succeed-naked-ambition

    How is it liberal to prevent one willing adult selling photos of themselves to another willing adult?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,661
    AndyJS said:

    O/T:

    "Ultra-liberal Iceland wants to ban online pornography. It is just the latest step in its attempts to eliminate the sex industry entirely":

    http://www.economist.com/news/international/21576366-iceland-determined-outlaw-worlds-oldest-business-can-it-succeed-naked-ambition

    I wouldn't say that Iceland is anything close to being ultra-liberal. The Icelanders are very different to the Scandinavians, especially the Swedes.

  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "How is it liberal to prevent one willing adult selling photos of themselves to another willing adult?"

    What does 'liberal' mean? The current government is social democratic/Red-Green, which because of the prevailing Nordic climate has a radical feminist agenda. In a few days' time, there will probably be a liberal-led or conservative-led government, which may or may not proceed with the plans - the article glosses over the significance of the election with a short hurried paragraph.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    AveryLP said:

    And now for some very good news. This time on the "omnishambles" budget

    Oh Boy,oh Boy, what have you done?

    Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said Britain’s tax authorities have increased the amount of money collected from wealthy individuals by 10 percent.

    The Revenue and Customs High Net Worth Unit that deals with the tax affairs of about 5,800 people with wealth of at least 20 million pounds ($34 million) raised about 220 million pounds in the tax year that ran through March, compared with 200 million pounds in the previous tax year, according to the Treasury.

    The effort is “a demonstration not just of our seriousness of intent when it comes to improving our fight against tax avoidance, but actually the fact that we are getting better results and getting more money in,” Osborne told reporters in Washington ahead of the publication of the figures in London today.

    So these 5800 individuals pay tax effectively at a rate of 2%. Call that good news? It instead shows the extent of the problem.

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,756
    30%+ is certainly possible in the absence of any other credible protest vehicle. Assuming a big squeeze on Tory, Lib Dem and BNP shares, next no nothing for the minor candidates and an effective campaign targetting Labour as out of touch with the concerns of the ordinary man and woman, it's just about possible for them to hit that kind of share.

    Is it a 6/1 shot? Probably that's just about right. They'd need the non-Lab/UKIP vote to be no higher than 20%, which is possible on a split of Con 10, LD 5, Oth 5. Even then, they'd need to take some Labour share as we know that a fair bit of the LD slump is their voters going to Labour rather than UKIP. That's a tough ask, though possible, and a score in the mid- to high-twenties seems more likely.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Socrates said:



    You're using wealth rather than income there.




    Bit complex that for yer average lefty ?

  • Peter_2Peter_2 Posts: 146
    Wealth, income, debt, deficit. Welcome to Gordo's fantasy world of economics.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2013
    Just put £20 on UKIP in South Shields with PaddyPower at 14/1. I don't expect to win but it'll make election night more interesting.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Peter_2 said:

    Wealth, income, debt, deficit. Welcome to Gordo's fantasy world of economics.

    All you need to know is that the left want them owned by the state - so you don't need to worry about 'em.


  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @Carlotta

    Is that report credible? I cant imagine that Miliband really asked Galloway why he left Labour.

    on topic - I'm not really tempted by any of the odds, just because there's a by-election doesnt mean we have to bet on it ;)
  • roserees64roserees64 Posts: 251
    Maybe a surprise choice for Labour PPC in Gloucester, Sophy Gardner, a Wing Commander in the RAF. However if elected she will bring her organisational skills to the job. She was selected in an open contest , not a women only list.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,957
    Chris_A said:

    AveryLP said:

    And now for some very good news. This time on the "omnishambles" budget

    Oh Boy,oh Boy, what have you done?

    Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said Britain’s tax authorities have increased the amount of money collected from wealthy individuals by 10 percent.

    The Revenue and Customs High Net Worth Unit that deals with the tax affairs of about 5,800 people with wealth of at least 20 million pounds ($34 million) raised about 220 million pounds in the tax year that ran through March, compared with 200 million pounds in the previous tax year, according to the Treasury.

    The effort is “a demonstration not just of our seriousness of intent when it comes to improving our fight against tax avoidance, but actually the fact that we are getting better results and getting more money in,” Osborne told reporters in Washington ahead of the publication of the figures in London today.

    So these 5800 individuals pay tax effectively at a rate of 2%. Call that good news? It instead shows the extent of the problem.

    Firstly, 220m/(5,800 * 20m) = 0.2%. More importantly, however, is wealth does not equal income.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    The interesting thing (for other contests down the line) is how many Labour voters UKIP can persuade to switch...

    It will also be interesting to see how Farage and co focus their campaign in a seat that's very different to Eastleigh.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Maybe a surprise choice for Labour PPC in Gloucester, Sophy Gardner, a Wing Commander in the RAF. However if elected she will bring her organisational skills to the job. She was selected in an open contest , not a women only list.

    Has anyone cleared this with Unite ?

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,957
    edited April 2013
    TGOHF said:


    Bit complex that for yer average lefty ?

    More worryingly the math was out by a factor of 10!
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    TGOHF said:

    Maybe a surprise choice for Labour PPC in Gloucester, Sophy Gardner, a Wing Commander in the RAF. However if elected she will bring her organisational skills to the job. She was selected in an open contest , not a women only list.

    Has anyone cleared this with Unite ?

    Air Traffic Control gave the permission for take off, TGOHF.

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Neil said:

    @Carlotta

    Is that report credible? I cant imagine that Miliband really asked Galloway why he left Labour.

    on topic - I'm not really tempted by any of the odds, just because there's a by-election doesnt mean we have to bet on it ;)

    If he did have to ask, he's very very thick.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Just put £20 on UKIP winning South Shields....

    I can see why, but its just too delicious to contemplate seriously.

    We can only imagine the 'does not compute!' reactions of the eds and the incandescence of McCluskey. Sadly, I think imagine is all we will ever be able to do.

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Maybe a surprise choice for Labour PPC in Gloucester, Sophy Gardner, a Wing Commander in the RAF

    Why do you think that she is a "surprise" choice? The Forces connection?

    Don't worry, she isn't a Wing Commander now. She's a "communications strategy consultant" so should fit in quite nicely at Westminster.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Thanks, but I don't think it makes a distinction in that article. It actually says the term "socialised" is used in the same place as "socialism". (For the record, I wouldn't count Medicare as socialist, as the providers of care are private companies. On the other hand, the Veteran's system in the US is more akin to our NHS, and is a socialist system.)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    The hilarity that would ensue if Ukip won is without value ;)

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited April 2013
    ...

  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    The closest I can get is the top 0.1% (47,000 relevant people) who have an average income of £780,043 and who pay on average £274,482 in income tax or, combined, £13bn. (source, 2006/7)

    I'm confused as to how tax collection on the highest performing tenth of that group - which ought on the face of it to raise over £1.3bn, raises just a fifth of that. (£220m across 5,800 people is around £40,000.) The only thing would be if the most wealthy individuals were considerably different to the highest earning individuals and I would be surprised if that were enough to explain the difference. Perhaps they are.


  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    "How is it liberal to prevent one willing adult selling photos of themselves to another willing adult?"

    What does 'liberal' mean? The current government is social democratic/Red-Green, which because of the prevailing Nordic climate has a radical feminist agenda. In a few days' time, there will probably be a liberal-led or conservative-led government, which may or may not proceed with the plans - the article glosses over the significance of the election with a short hurried paragraph.

    I generally interpret the meaning of liberal in the JS Mill sense: freedom from government to do something as long as it doesn't harm others.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    It's not just on here people lose the plot when it comes to Romanian and Bulgarian numbers.

    Nigel Farage ‏@Nigel_Farage
    36% Romanian adults intend to work elsewhere in the EU in 2013/14 (1.8m), of which 4.6% (338,000) stated the UK was their destination.

    There's no indication the poll was wrong, per se: as Antony Wells says, they did reply with those figures. Rather, they are much less likely to emigrate than they say they are, in my (and Mr Wells') opinion.

    [Edit: Not exactly sure which of the Newsnight figures Farage is using; 31% of Bulgarians said they intended to go and work abroad in either 2013 or 2014, of which a third said the UK, and so on. Anyway, the fact is that 400,000 Romanians or Bulgarians said they were actively looking to emigrate to Britain, which I think is an order of magnitude too high.]

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7323
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Why does Gorgeous George have to "threaten to tell all" ?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @Grandiose - the quoted figure is not the total yield on this group but the yield raised from activities of the High Net Worth Unit (so separate from the normal payroll / self-assessment and other taxes they pay).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,957
    Grandiose said:

    The closest I can get is the top 0.1% (47,000 relevant people) who have an average income of £780,043 and who pay on average £274,482 in income tax or, combined, £13bn. (source, 2006/7)

    I'm confused as to how tax collection on the highest performing tenth of that group - which ought on the face of it to raise over £1.3bn, raises just a fifth of that. (£220m across 5,800 people is around £40,000.) The only thing would be if the most wealthy individuals were considerably different to the highest earning individuals and I would be surprised if that were enough to explain the difference. Perhaps they are.


    I initially thought that the £220m figure was above and beyond what was originally collected from these 5,800. I am not sure of that now given the wording in the pasted article. Can anyone shed light on this? Any of those 5,800 post here on PB?!
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @tim

    At least Farage probably knows he's talking rubbish. I suspect others may believe it.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "I generally interpret the meaning of liberal in the JS Mill sense: freedom from government to do something as long as it doesn't harm others."

    Most of the Nordic countries have long since departed from that by implementing the Swedish law on prostitution.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    Dave's war on the disabled continues.

    @ianprior: Hard to believe Tanni Grey-Thompson's opposition to disability benefit cuts hasn't cost her the Sport England job

    Surely its because she is black ?
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    edited April 2013
    RobD said:

    Grandiose said:

    The closest I can get is the top 0.1% (47,000 relevant people) who have an average income of £780,043 and who pay on average £274,482 in income tax or, combined, £13bn. (source, 2006/7)

    I'm confused as to how tax collection on the highest performing tenth of that group - which ought on the face of it to raise over £1.3bn, raises just a fifth of that. (£220m across 5,800 people is around £40,000.) The only thing would be if the most wealthy individuals were considerably different to the highest earning individuals and I would be surprised if that were enough to explain the difference. Perhaps they are.


    I initially thought that the £220m figure was above and beyond what was originally collected from these 5,800. I am not sure of that now given the wording in the pasted article. Can anyone shed light on this? Any of those 5,800 post here on PB?!
    Found it:

    "The Treasury said the revenue brought in by the specialist unit, which employs 380 staff across the U.K., is in addition to the tax normally collected from wealthy taxpayers and would have gone unpaid without the unit's intervention due to taxpayer error, avoidance or evasion. "

    http://www.euroinvestor.com/news/2013/04/22/uk-claims-small-win-on-tax-avoidance/12299374

    Thus it is really these numbers of interest:
    "-brought in GBP220 million in tax revenue in the past tax year, which ended on April 5, compared to the GBP200 million raised in 2011/2012 tax year and the GBP162 million raised in 2010/2011."

    At a guesstimate the group's overall income tax take might be £2bn to £5bn (I don't know the skew you see and this is a bit of a guess).


    [Edit: I see @Neil got there first.]
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Grandiose said:


    Thus it is really these numbers of interest:
    "-brought in GBP220 million in tax revenue in the past tax year, which ended on April 5, compared to the GBP200 million raised in 2011/2012 tax year and the GBP162 million raised in 2010/2011."

    The effort the coalition has put into extracting tax from the very wealthy puts the whining about the cost of an old woman's funeral into perspective, doesn't it.
  • Peter_2Peter_2 Posts: 146
    JamesKelly Posts: 419
    5:05PM

    It is now liberal to be illiberal. Free speech? For it, unless it is illiberal....
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,661
    Socrates said:

    Thanks, but I don't think it makes a distinction in that article. It actually says the term "socialised" is used in the same place as "socialism". (For the record, I wouldn't count Medicare as socialist, as the providers of care are private companies. On the other hand, the Veteran's system in the US is more akin to our NHS, and is a socialist system.)

    My readng is that it says it can be used separate to socialism, but that right wingers in the US have tended to use it as a pejorative term meant to imply socialist.

    I would say that you cannot have selected socialism - you either have a socialist state or you do not. Socialised for me is a much more sector specific term and implies a collective decision that some things are better run and organised by the state, and funded through taxation. In the UK, that would include health, education, the road system, the courts, the police setvice, the armed services and so on. And because it is a collective decision, these things can be privatised too, if there is the will to do so. Tough it is probably fair to say that the armed services will always be socialised, unless we get rid of them completely.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,756
    This has probably been gone into during the day but I do wonder whether the "very few" migrants from Bulgaria and Romania quoted from the newsnight poll has been squared with the approximately half a million people the 1% and 4.6% response rates from Romania and Bulgaria respectively would represent.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,661
    Neil said:

    @Grandiose - the quoted figure is not the total yield on this group but the yield raised from activities of the High Net Worth Unit (so separate from the normal payroll / self-assessment and other taxes they pay).

    More to the point, they could have been done whatever the top rate of tax is.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,234
    AndyJS said:

    Just put £20 on UKIP in South Shields with PaddyPower at 14/1. I don't expect to win but it'll make election night more interesting.

    I think Ladbrokes 40%+ for UKIP is a better market if you think they will win. Can't see it happening on less than 40%.

  • samsam Posts: 727
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    It's not just on here people lose the plot when it comes to Romanian and Bulgarian numbers.

    Nigel Farage ‏@Nigel_Farage
    36% Romanian adults intend to work elsewhere in the EU in 2013/14 (1.8m), of which 4.6% (338,000) stated the UK was their destination.

    It will be interesting to see how many actually do come to the UK., not least to see if the people who called it wrong hold their hands up and admit it. I personally wouldnt have any idea how many Bulgarians & Romanians will end up here, so am not going to guess.

    Tim, we obviously disagree on the motivation behind Enoch Powells speech, and I dont want to argue over that, but one thing he is acknowledged to have correctly predicted were the numbers in terms of % of the population of immigrants in 2000 based on the 1968 levels. As his name is mud now, nobody cares much to mention that.

    My only prediction on this would be that if Farage, UKIP, The Daily Mail etc are correct on the numbers, the left wing posters on here will ignore that and repeatedly distract us with data "showing" how great mass immigration is for the economy, educational standards, etc

    In a year we will know, hope whoever was wrong is big enough to concede it.


  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983


    More to the point, they could have been done whatever the top rate of tax is.

    Indeed - the reduction in the additional tax rate reduced the take from this group. Though it should be pointed out that other measures (such as restricting pension tax relief) should increase it. Good luck to the person who tries to figure out what the net impact of all the Coalition's budget measures will be for this group (though I think the political impact of reducing the 50p rate will dominate).
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Neil said:

    @Grandiose - the quoted figure is not the total yield on this group but the yield raised from activities of the High Net Worth Unit (so separate from the normal payroll / self-assessment and other taxes they pay).

    More to the point, they could have been done whatever the top rate of tax is.

    What's your point Southam? GO doesn't seemed to have linked it to the tax cut not in force at the time. This was money that was going missing through evasion, avoidance, and mistake, that it would have been within the last governments' ability to have secured, but seemingly did not.

    [2010/11 to 2012/13 shows a rise of over a third. Earlier figures would be useful, if the group existed.]
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,234
    RobD said:

    Grandiose said:

    The closest I can get is the top 0.1% (47,000 relevant people) who have an average income of £780,043 and who pay on average £274,482 in income tax or, combined, £13bn. (source, 2006/7)

    I'm confused as to how tax collection on the highest performing tenth of that group - which ought on the face of it to raise over £1.3bn, raises just a fifth of that. (£220m across 5,800 people is around £40,000.) The only thing would be if the most wealthy individuals were considerably different to the highest earning individuals and I would be surprised if that were enough to explain the difference. Perhaps they are.


    I initially thought that the £220m figure was above and beyond what was originally collected from these 5,800. I am not sure of that now given the wording in the pasted article. Can anyone shed light on this? Any of those 5,800 post here on PB?!
    Not sure Marquee Mark, Antifrank & SeanT have that much wonga between them. If anyone is in the '5800' then they certainly keep it quiet ;)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,661
    I make 4.6% of 1.8 million just under 90,000. Am I missing something here?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Another thread and tim is banging on about immigration again - YAWN.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    RobD said:

    Grandiose said:

    The closest I can get is the top 0.1% (47,000 relevant people) who have an average income of £780,043 and who pay on average £274,482 in income tax or, combined, £13bn. (source, 2006/7)

    I'm confused as to how tax collection on the highest performing tenth of that group - which ought on the face of it to raise over £1.3bn, raises just a fifth of that. (£220m across 5,800 people is around £40,000.) The only thing would be if the most wealthy individuals were considerably different to the highest earning individuals and I would be surprised if that were enough to explain the difference. Perhaps they are.


    I initially thought that the £220m figure was above and beyond what was originally collected from these 5,800. I am not sure of that now given the wording in the pasted article. Can anyone shed light on this? Any of those 5,800 post here on PB?!
    Neil is right. The High Net Worth Unit studies the tax returns of their target group and raises enquiries when they detect potential underpayments of tax. Once these enquiries are resolved any additional tax collected is credited to the activities of the unit.

    HMRC’s High Net Worth Unit (HNWU) – which deals with the tax affairs of 5,800 people with assets in excess of £20 million – increased its yield from tax enquiries by 10 per cent in the 2012/13 tax year, having collected £200 million in 2011/12.

    The unit has increased its revenues from the UK’s richest taxpayers every year since it was established in 2009, raising a total of £665 million in additional tax over the last four years. This revenue is in addition to the taxes HMRC normally collects from this group of wealthy individuals and is the result of enquiries.


    Now all we need to do is enquire of Neil how he came to know this information.

    Link to official HMRC press release: http://bit.ly/ZIb4PL
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,661
    Grandiose said:

    Neil said:

    @Grandiose - the quoted figure is not the total yield on this group but the yield raised from activities of the High Net Worth Unit (so separate from the normal payroll / self-assessment and other taxes they pay).

    More to the point, they could have been done whatever the top rate of tax is.

    What's your point Southam? GO doesn't seemed to have linked it to the tax cut not in force at the time. This was money that was going missing through evasion, avoidance, and mistake, that it would have been within the last governments' ability to have secured, but seemingly did not.

    [2010/11 to 2012/13 shows a rise of over a third. Earlier figures would be useful, if the group existed.]

    Read the post that started this discussion off. I agree about the last government.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,661
    tim said:

    @SouthamObserver

    That was my point.

    I thought it may have been. Either Farage is very bad at maths or very bad at English!

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    AveryLP said:


    Now all we need to do is enquire of Neil how he came to know this information.

    All you need to know is that you have more reason to be scared of me than I have to be scared of you.

    Kidding, I promise I do not work for HMRC.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    edited April 2013

    I make 4.6% of 1.8 million just under 90,000. Am I missing something here?

    The working-age population of Romania is 15m and Bulgaria 5m, according to Anthony Wells.

    EDIT: I see the problem: 1.8m is the 36%, not the total population.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    edited April 2013
    Neil said:


    More to the point, they could have been done whatever the top rate of tax is.

    Indeed - the reduction in the additional tax rate reduced the take from this group. Though it should be pointed out that other measures (such as restricting pension tax relief) should increase it. Good luck to the person who tries to figure out what the net impact of all the Coalition's budget measures will be for this group (though I think the political impact of reducing the 50p rate will dominate).
    Well, the government said this:
    There are forecast to be around 330,000 tax payers with taxable incomes of over B.21 £150,000 in 2013–14. There are a number of measures announced at this Budget that will principally affect this group but cannot be modelled in Charts B.1 to B.4. Taken together, it is estimated that the reduction in the additional rate of income tax to 45 per cent, the 25 per cent cap on income tax reliefs above £50,000 and the increase in stamp duty rates for high value properties will result in an expected average contribution to the Exchequer from those with incomes of above £150,000 of an additional £1,300 a year
    I believe the pessimistic forecast is that the 50p to 45p cut will cost the taxpayer £3bn a year. From that the changes to tax reliefs and so will need to be deducted (/added in). Other forecasts are lower.

    The uncertainty is considerable (according to their standard model, 97% of the cut would be made back from behavioral factors; I think that demonstrates the problem.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    @TGOHF

    Anything has to be better than you failing to understand pensions.

    tim - if you told me it was Wednesday I'd stick my head outside to see if it was raining.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    tim said:

    @Sam

    He estimated that by the year 2000 up to seven million people - or one in ten of the population - would be of immigrant descent.

    Given that it was a lot more than that when he said it in 1968 it was hardly unlikely to happen was it?

    "As many as 6 million people in the UK have an Irish grandfather or grandmother"

    As for the economic impact well here's the Left Wing OBR on the various scenarios around immigration and debt/deficit

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/bring-in-migrants-to-cut-billions-from-deficit-says-osbornes-watchdog-7939667.html

    10% of the population were commonwealth immigrants, of the type Powell was discussing, in the late 60s? I didnt know that

    (I know you know full well what I mean and are using distraction techniques as you will if the number of Bulgarians and Romanians is anywhere near what the people you disagree with politically predict)

    Most people who sare anti immigration measure it by the effect on their everyday life ie High Street rather than data and statistics. Thats why the left seem baffled by peoples complaints even though some spreadsheet doesnt tally and so have to dismiss as anecdotes opinions that dont suit.



  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Spain's population fell last year for the first time in decades, as immigrants left the country amid a major economic crisis, officials say.

    The National Statistic Institute (NSI) says the number of residents dropped by almost 206,000 to 47.1m - the decline entirely accounted for by foreigners."


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22251840
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @Grandiose

    Ah, yes, but try combining the impacts of all the measures from all their budgets! I know it's hard because I spent an afternoon trying to do it when tim claimed that Osborne was favouring his privileged family and friends with his Budget decisions.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    I already said it and I repeat it.....if it is a low turnout (mid 30%), the great majority of votes will be by post and probably posted next week

    In 2012 locals 6,751 voted in person and 14,570 by post in SS wards.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    "A British woman convicted in Bali of drug smuggling has lost her appeal to overturn a ruling upholding the UK government's refusal to fund her appeal against a death sentence."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22244809#TWEET731062
  • samsam Posts: 727
    tim said:

    @Sam

    10% of the population were commonwealth immigrants, of the type Powell was discussing, in the late 60s?

    "Of the type Powell was discussing" -What can you possibly mean?

    Do the descendants of Irish immigrants not count?
    I wonder why.

    Haha how pathetic!!!

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2013
    Has anyone actually apologised yet for the prediction of 13,000 eastern Europeans coming to the UK from 2004 onwards when in fact the figure was close to a million? (I don't personally mind immigrants from eastern Europe, I'm just referring to the poor prediction itself).
  • samsam Posts: 727
    AndyJS said:

    Has anyone actually apologised yet for the prediction of 13,000 eastern Europeans coming to the UK from 2004 onwards when in fact the figure was close to a million? (I don't personally mind immigrants from eastern Europe, I'm just referring to the poor prediction itself).

    Thats all I was referring to, but tim has to try and smear when someone who he disagrees with predicts something correctly

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    AndyJS said:

    Has anyone actually apologised yet for the prediction of 13,000 eastern Europeans coming to the UK from 2004 onwards when in fact the figure was close to a million? (I don't personally mind immigrants from eastern Europe, I'm just referring to the poor prediction itself).

    No, AndyJS, I dont think anyone has apologised for significantly underestimating the positive contribution of the accession of the A8 states to the UK's public finances.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,756
    tim said:

    @DavidHerdson


    I'm willing to entertain bets on this, strangely so far the people who believe the "do you want to emigrate" polls are a bit shy.

    Or they've joined the 75% of Britains who said they wanted to emigrate and are on a boat without internet access.

    Whether we believe the polls or not wasn't my point. The point was that the BBC were claiming that the number of anticipated immigrants from Romania and Bulgaria was going to be low, when their own poll suggested a figure well into the hundreds of thousands.

    To bring matters back on topic, that's precisely the sort of stat that UKIP could very handily use in South Shields, not least because the data source isn't tainted with anti-immigrationism.
  • Peter_2Peter_2 Posts: 146
    AndyJS Posts: 397
    5:37PM

    Has anyone from NuLabour apologised yet for importing millions of third world Labour voters? Thought not. (ps as they're non white it's racist...)
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited April 2013
    AndyJS said:

    Has anyone actually apologised yet for the prediction of 13,000 eastern Europeans coming to the UK from 2004 onwards when in fact the figure was close to a million? (I don't personally mind immigrants from eastern Europe, I'm just referring to the poor prediction itself).

    Immigrants, eh, coming over here with their fancy-pants work ethic and reducing the cost to the homeowner of most trades while simultaneously improving quality. Bastards. Can't find a proper cowboy for love nor money these days.

    Stereotype, you say? Doesn't stop those on the other side of the argument.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Can anyone tell Guido that Ivana Bartoletti has never been an MP in Italy?
    http://order-order.com/2013/04/22/whatsa-matter-eu-labour-euro-candidates-are-failed-italian-politicians/

    She has a SpAd but never elected to the Parliament (and there has not been elections in 2007)

    A bit of accurancy would be welcomed sometimes.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Neil said:

    AndyJS said:

    Has anyone actually apologised yet for the prediction of 13,000 eastern Europeans coming to the UK from 2004 onwards when in fact the figure was close to a million? (I don't personally mind immigrants from eastern Europe, I'm just referring to the poor prediction itself).

    No, AndyJS, I dont think anyone has apologised for significantly underestimating the positive contribution of the accession of the A8 states to the UK's public finances.

    @Neil, not sure that's the way to look at it. Even if the accession of the A8 states was positive overall (as I and you think) it still put much more pressure on public services, and so on, than was forecast. Plenty of reasons why one might wish to have an apology.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    This is perfect!

    My original point was that if UKIP, The Daily Mail etc are correct with their forecasts then I wonder if the left will be good enough to admit it... I said I feared they would ignore that and use the perceived benfits of mass immigration as a distraction...

    Thanks to tim, Neil and Anorak for proving me right a year early x
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,661
    Peter_2 said:

    AndyJS Posts: 397
    5:37PM

    Has anyone from NuLabour apologised yet for importing millions of third world Labour voters? Thought not. (ps as they're non white it's racist...)

    And your evidence that these millions of brown people all came into the UK to vote Labour is ...

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited April 2013
    sam said:

    This is perfect!

    My original point was that if UKIP, The Daily Mail etc are correct with their forecasts then I wonder if the left will be good enough to admit it... I said I feared they would ignore that and use the perceived benfits of mass immigration as a distraction...

    Thanks to tim, Neil and Anorak for proving me right a year early x

    Pleasure, as always. xx

    Although I was trying to satirise the absurd anecdote-driven rhetoric that always accompanies any debate on immigration. Always easy to find a story to support your point of view, however extreme that view may be.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,661
    Grandiose said:

    Neil said:

    AndyJS said:

    Has anyone actually apologised yet for the prediction of 13,000 eastern Europeans coming to the UK from 2004 onwards when in fact the figure was close to a million? (I don't personally mind immigrants from eastern Europe, I'm just referring to the poor prediction itself).

    No, AndyJS, I dont think anyone has apologised for significantly underestimating the positive contribution of the accession of the A8 states to the UK's public finances.

    @Neil, not sure that's the way to look at it. Even if the accession of the A8 states was positive overall (as I and you think) it still put much more pressure on public services, and so on, than was forecast. Plenty of reasons why one might wish to have an apology.

    And generated a lot more for the exchequer than was forecast.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    Neil said:

    @Grandiose

    Ah, yes, but try combining the impacts of all the measures from all their budgets! I know it's hard because I spent an afternoon trying to do it when tim claimed that Osborne was favouring his privileged family and friends with his Budget decisions.

    There is a spreadsheet downloadable from the HMRC site entitled "Shares of total income (before and after tax) and income tax for percentile groups, 1999-00 to 2012-13".

    It shows that the top 1% of income earners have paid a greater proportion of the total income tax yield in every year of this government than in any year of the previous Labour government(s).

    The proportions for the Coalition are (2009-10) 26.5%, (2010-11) 25.0%, (2011-12) 27.4% and (2012-13) 26.5% (last two figures latest estimates).

    The highest share recorded under Labour since 1999-2000 is 24.4% in (2007-8) although the figures for the following year are missing from the series.

    Of course, all these figures are pre-implementation of the 45% top rate of income tax and do not take into account changes in tax reliefs and other taxes.

    It may be a starting point though in your battle with tim. Download link for the curious or obsessive: http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/statistics/tax-statistics/table2-4.xls


  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @Grandiose

    Yeah, I was making a partisan pro-immigration point (in my defence there are enough partisan anti-immigration points made!). Regarding apologising for the initial estimates - well, they were only estimates, an important question is how any weaknesses in the forecasts were explained. I dont think you can blame politicians and other policy makers for relying on the only estimates they had available.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    @SouthamObserver

    Look at how the Spanish sneakily imported immigrants under the cover of economic growth and since the downturn are exporting voters.

    Looks like a conspiracy doesn't it.

    It is a pity that houses can't emigrate, tim. We could do with a few of the empty ones in Spain.

    “What makes Spain unique from other countries is the sheer volume of empty homes we have, combined with the economic situation,” said Acuna.

    That’s a legacy of Spain’s construction boom, which saw 675,000 homes built per year from 1997 to 2006, according to a report by a unit of the Cajamar savings bank. That’s more than France, Germany and the U.K. combined. The building frenzy resulted in a surplus of about 2 million empty homes that will take between seven and 13 years to absorb, Acuna says.
    Acuna says the problem will get worse as the economy deteriorates.

    The recession, Spain’s second since 2008, is extending into the first quarter amid weak domestic demand, the Bank of Spain said March 26. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said last month he expects the economy will probably contract by more than the government’s forecast of 0.5 percent as the deepest austerity measures in the nation’s democratic history jeopardize a return to growth initially expected in the second half.

    The International Monetary Fund expects the economy to shrink about 1.6 percent this year and unemployment to peak at 27 percent.


    It does put the UK's "housing crisis" and state of the economy in perspective doesn't it?

    p.s. Acuna = Fernando Rodriguez de Acuna Martinez, a partner at Madrid-based real estate consultant Acuna & Asociados.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    AveryLP said:

    Neil said:

    @Grandiose

    Ah, yes, but try combining the impacts of all the measures from all their budgets! I know it's hard because I spent an afternoon trying to do it when tim claimed that Osborne was favouring his privileged family and friends with his Budget decisions.

    There is a spreadsheet downloadable from the HMRC site entitled "Shares of total income (before and after tax) and income tax for percentile groups, 1999-00 to 2012-13".

    It shows that the top 1% of income earners have paid a greater proportion of the total income tax yield in every year of this government than in any year of the previous Labour government(s).

    The proportions for the Coalition are (2009-10) 26.5%, (2010-11) 25.0%, (2011-12) 27.4% and (2012-13) 26.5% (last two figures latest estimates).

    The highest share recorded under Labour since 1999-2000 is 24.4% in (2007-8) although the figures for the following year are missing from the series.

    Of course, all these figures are pre-implementation of the 45% top rate of income tax and do not take into account changes in tax reliefs and other taxes.

    It may be a starting point though in your battle with tim. Download link for the curious or obsessive: http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/statistics/tax-statistics/table2-4.xls


    The big unknown is the behavioral response to the rate increase and cut. That was why Darling made it temporary in the first place: he wanted people to feel like their increase was justified. Osborne wants them to feel like they've been done a favour by the government and owe it the correct payment of their remaining taxes.

    Anyway, the argument isn't with anyone in particular. It's about being informed.
  • Peter_2Peter_2 Posts: 146
    SouthamObserver Posts: 436
    5:48PM

    Just look at the demographic shift in seats like Brent North, Ealing North, etc.

    Maybe I am wrong, and they all vote Tory. But I doubt it.

    ps-EU immigrants mostly cannot vote in GEs.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,313
    From Charles Moore's Thatcher bio

    Gordon Reece, the public relations guru who had worked for the Conservative party since the early 1970s, was instrumental in transforming Mrs Thatcher’s presentational skills, including her voice.

    She, however, was a little slow in realising Reece’s full importance. That was certainly his opinion.

    In 1981, she offered him the CBE. He wrote back, with icy anger: “It is my

    view that with the exception of yourself, no member of the Conservative Party contributed more effectively to the result of the 1979 election than I did ... Not that such services demand a knighthood ... But I respectfully suggest that that or nothing were the alternatives ... I am conscious of the honourable estate of the CBE. In the circumstances I would prefer not to accept it.”

    Reece was eventually rewarded with a knighthood in 1986.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Peter_2 said:

    SouthamObserver Posts: 436
    5:48PM

    Just look at the demographic shift in seats like Brent North, Ealing North, etc.

    Maybe I am wrong, and they all vote Tory. But I doubt it.

    ps-EU immigrants mostly cannot vote in GEs.

    Why is the political affiliation of the immigrants relevant? Do you mean to say it's someway unfair that Labour disproportionately attracted would-be Labour voters into the country? Even as a Tory, I can't say I agree. If I could, I would convince them to vote Conservative, but that's not the point.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,950
    Peter_2 said:

    AndyJS Posts: 397
    5:37PM

    Has anyone from NuLabour apologised yet for importing millions of third world Labour voters? Thought not. (ps as they're non white it's racist...)

    When I first arrived in this country, I knew not a word of English! Probably because I was only four months old!!!

    PS. I only ever voted Labour at a GE in 1997, and at Locals in 1998.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    @Avery

    Export a million Tory/UKIP voting pensioners to Spain's empty houses, bring in a mililion Eastern Europeans of working age, even Obsorne might get some economic growth

    Give Spain 100k long term unemployed to knock down all the houses on the proviso they don't return them.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Grandiose said:

    AveryLP said:

    Neil said:

    @Grandiose

    Ah, yes, but try combining the impacts of all the measures from all their budgets! I know it's hard because I spent an afternoon trying to do it when tim claimed that Osborne was favouring his privileged family and friends with his Budget decisions.

    There is a spreadsheet downloadable from the HMRC site entitled "Shares of total income (before and after tax) and income tax for percentile groups, 1999-00 to 2012-13".

    It shows that the top 1% of income earners have paid a greater proportion of the total income tax yield in every year of this government than in any year of the previous Labour government(s).

    The proportions for the Coalition are (2009-10) 26.5%, (2010-11) 25.0%, (2011-12) 27.4% and (2012-13) 26.5% (last two figures latest estimates).

    The highest share recorded under Labour since 1999-2000 is 24.4% in (2007-8) although the figures for the following year are missing from the series.

    Of course, all these figures are pre-implementation of the 45% top rate of income tax and do not take into account changes in tax reliefs and other taxes.

    It may be a starting point though in your battle with tim. Download link for the curious or obsessive: http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/statistics/tax-statistics/table2-4.xls



    Anyway, the argument isn't with anyone in particular. It's about being informed.
    Grandiose.

    When tim's involved it is much more than being informed. It is about being armed and equipped for battle.

  • On topic, we need polling, can't see UKIP polling 40% plus, if Labour hold their share from last time, that would mean the Tory and LD share would shrink to 8% from over 35% last time around.

    Backing the two ranges from 20 to 40 looks the way to go.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,661
    Peter_2 said:

    SouthamObserver Posts: 436
    5:48PM

    Just look at the demographic shift in seats like Brent North, Ealing North, etc.

    Maybe I am wrong, and they all vote Tory. But I doubt it.

    ps-EU immigrants mostly cannot vote in GEs.

    And how many of these voters are brown-skinned immigrants who arrived in the country after 1997?

    The number of brown-skinned immigrants in Scotland is relatively low, but it was only there that Labour's vote went up in 2010. It is also the case that immigrants are actually the least likely to vote in elections

  • Off topic, is the first time Godwin's law applies to the main text of the comment piece and not the comments section?

    From Margaret Thatcher to the Nazis: let's not go down memorial lane

    So the Iron Lady had a hero's sendoff. But twisting the public's memory can never end well – just look at the Third Reich

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/artanddesign/jonathanjonesblog/2013/apr/22/margaret-thatcher-nazi-memorials
  • Peter_2 said:

    AndyJS Posts: 397
    5:37PM

    Has anyone from NuLabour apologised yet for importing millions of third world Labour voters? Thought not. (ps as they're non white it's racist...)

    When I first arrived in this country, I knew not a word of English! Probably because I was only four months old!!!

    PS. I only ever voted Labour at a GE in 1997, and at Locals in 1998.
    Your English is very impressive for a Southerner.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,950
    Grandiose said:

    Peter_2 said:

    SouthamObserver Posts: 436
    5:48PM

    Just look at the demographic shift in seats like Brent North, Ealing North, etc.

    Maybe I am wrong, and they all vote Tory. But I doubt it.

    ps-EU immigrants mostly cannot vote in GEs.

    Why is the political affiliation of the immigrants relevant? Do you mean to say it's someway unfair that Labour disproportionately attracted would-be Labour voters into the country? Even as a Tory, I can't say I agree. If I could, I would convince them to vote Conservative, but that's not the point.

    I made a start on this at the weekend:


    Seat |Census 2011 White British| 2010 GE Lab vote
    Barking|46|54
    Bethnal Green|34|43
    Ilford North|44|34
    Ilford South|17|49
  • PS this Business for Britain advert is really pissing me off, especially on an iPhone.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    edited April 2013
    @tim
    tim said:

    @Sam

    It's hardly smearing Powell by pointing out that the 10% of the British were already descended from immigrants when he made his prediction that 10% of the British would be descended from immigrants in 30 years time.

    It simply points out that he was interested in skin colour not immigration, as he didn't include the descendants of white immigrants in his considerations

    You know full well that the conversation at that time concerned immigration from the Carribean and Asia, and the predictions Powell made was for the amount of immigrants/descendents from that part of the world. The motivation for his speech is something we disagree on but irrelevant to the fact he was correct (*EDIT* correct on the number of "Commonwealth" immigrants). That you have to introduce an argument concerning the skin colour of the immigrants/Irish immigrants rather than admit he was right, proves my point.

    I dont understand why pro immigration people try to pretend that the numbers will not be as big as they always turn out to be. Being pro immigration is a reasonable enough position, why not just say " There will be hundreds of thousands of immigrants, and it will be for the greater good" rather than pretend there wont be very many, then switch the argument when there are?

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,950

    Peter_2 said:

    AndyJS Posts: 397
    5:37PM

    Has anyone from NuLabour apologised yet for importing millions of third world Labour voters? Thought not. (ps as they're non white it's racist...)

    When I first arrived in this country, I knew not a word of English! Probably because I was only four months old!!!

    PS. I only ever voted Labour at a GE in 1997, and at Locals in 1998.
    Your English is very impressive for a Southerner.
    Thank you TSE. I could even understand your northern accent at DD's on Friday :)
  • Peter_2Peter_2 Posts: 146
    SO

    Immigrants are less likely to vote because EU immigrants can, on the whole, not vote. So a significant proportion are, or do not want to become, eligible.

    NuLabour handed out passports and so full voting rights like confetti to Third world immigrants. Figures are easily available, look them up. All Third world Commonwealth immigrants can also vote in GEs. A disgrace where there are no reciprocal rights.

    It would be an insult to Mandie to suppose he was not aware this would produce a Labour voting block.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Neil said:

    @tim

    At least Farage probably knows he's talking rubbish. I suspect others may believe it.

    Farage hasn't said that many will come, just that that many intend to come. Isn't that a fair representation of the question asked?
This discussion has been closed.