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2024 vision. Some 66/1 and 50/1 tips to start off your Sunday – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    eristdoof said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I'm glad the Tories acknowledge now that Johnson is not a master communicator and that in fact he is so rubbish they have to pay somebody else £100,000 a year to do the job for him.

    While also paying Cummings to do his thinking for him.

    What exactly is the point of BoZo?

    The point of Johnson is so that Cummings can get into power. It is clear that Cummings cannot get elected and certainly not win a conservative leadership challenge. Johnson is the dog, and Cummings is the flea, who wants to get into a nice warm house.
    Thankfully without the reproductive capacity
  • ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Suggests Rishi Sunak is the leader in waiting for the Tories if Labour takes and builds a consistent poll lead which it still has not done yet
    He's probably the only contender they have, the rest of the cabinet are woeful.

    I wonder if Hunt will have another go?
    Sunak, Hunt, Gove, Patel.

    Which two would go through to the membership ballot? My best guess would be Hunt and Sunak, in which case Sunak probably wins. If Hunt and Gove, Hunt wins.
    Hunt would be fishing in the same poll as Sunak ie the moderate wing of the party and is basically Sunak without the charisma or electoral appeal so it won't be him, the hard Brexit right would put up a candidate, probably Patel or Raab who would end up in the final 2 with Sunak
    You’re thinking of Party members. We’re talking about MPs, who even after last year’s purge are a lot more moderate and a lot more sensible than the membership as a whole.

    They voted in Johnson to win an election. Now he’s done that and killed off Corbynism, they’ll be looking for someone who is capable of running the country effectively. They will know perfectly well Patel and Raab don’t meet that criteria.
    Let's hope so
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited October 2020
    Stocky said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I feel sorry for her. I don`t think she`s a stunning intellect and may have acted in shock when she got the positive result (which she may have been surprised about). It left her in London, worried and wanting to get home. And realising that he was in the sh1t for being in parliament. Overall - in panic I`d say.

    There are going to be human sacrifices, as the public become increasingly resentful about what is happening and look for people to blame.

    Ferrier is just the first human sacrifice. There are more politicians that will meet the purifying fire.

    Ferrier was stupid & deserves a whopping fine. But, hounding out of office, no.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    nico679 said:

    Trump needed Covid under control and the economy rebounding quickly in the run up to the election . He got neither and the virus is now taking off again in key swing states . Regardless of whether Biden could have done much better the electorate who aren’t part of the Trump Cult are fed up and will vote accordingly .

    As elsewhere, the virus appears to be increasing in the US but the pattern has changed. The big cities and heavily populated States are still generally not so bad; it's the flyover States, previously little affected, which are beginning to feel the curse.
    First wave, part two?
  • Stocky said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I feel sorry for her. I don`t think she`s a stunning intellect and may have acted in shock when she got the positive result (which she may have been surprised about). It left her in London, worried and wanting to get home. And realising that he was in the sh1t for being in parliament. Overall - in panic I`d say.

    There are going to be human sacrifices, as the public become increasingly resentful about what is happening and look for people to blame.

    Ferrier is just the first human sacrifice. There are more politicians that will meet the purifying fire.

    Ferrier was stupid & deserves a whopping fine. But, hounding out of office, no.
    She absolutely does deserve to be kicked out of office but Cummings has ensured that won't happen.

    Of course it's interesting to see Tories once again doing a U-turn and now supporting law and order and people following the rules.

    Perhaps it's all just political point scoring and not about the right thing at all? The Tory Party is as morally bankrupt as any other party, they're just better at winning elections.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Gove would be a better PM than Johnson but of course that likely means Cummings staying around which is the real issue.

    Hunt would be the best candidate IMHO, the Starmer of the Tories. That would be an interesting election.

    Does any other Tory have the connection to the Red Wall, which I think even Johnson is starting to lose (albeit slowly) going by some polling

    There is absolutely no point the Tories changing leader right now. Let Johnson carry the can.

    Politics is brutal. Johnson behaved liked a sh1t for so long, and received no punishment.

    He is now being punished for something that is not really his fault.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    edited October 2020
    ydoethur said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Suggests Rishi Sunak is the leader in waiting for the Tories if Labour takes and builds a consistent poll lead which it still has not done yet
    He's probably the only contender they have, the rest of the cabinet are woeful.

    I wonder if Hunt will have another go?
    Sunak, Hunt, Gove, Patel.

    Which two would go through to the membership ballot? My best guess would be Hunt and Sunak, in which case Sunak probably wins. If Hunt and Gove, Hunt wins.
    Hunt would be fishing in the same poll as Sunak ie the moderate wing of the party and is basically Sunak without the charisma or electoral appeal so it won't be him, the hard Brexit right would put up a candidate, probably Patel or Raab who would end up in the final 2 with Sunak
    You know far more than I do on this, but my sense is that you are underestimating Hunt. I think he runs on a ticket with Javid as chancellor. This would appeal to sufficient MPs to get through that aspect and then to the membership as a solid, capable solution. Sunak, I hear, is pissing off a lot of MPs who have taken to referring to him as "the boy from accounts".
    Can we all please remember that we are not Yanks. Our politicians do not ‘run’ for office, they ‘stand’ for it.

    Although I would love to see Donald Trump and Joe Biden both literally running across America to get to Pennsylvania Avenue, so we could have President Harris.
    Opps, yes thanks, fellow pedant. As long as you are consistent and tell Kinabalu off for using z`s in the place of s`s.
  • Lockdown harder....

    BBC News - Covid: Second national lockdown possible, says top UK scientist
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54498191
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Suggests Rishi Sunak is the leader in waiting for the Tories if Labour takes and builds a consistent poll lead which it still has not done yet
    He's probably the only contender they have, the rest of the cabinet are woeful.

    I wonder if Hunt will have another go?
    Sunak, Hunt, Gove, Patel.

    Which two would go through to the membership ballot? My best guess would be Hunt and Sunak, in which case Sunak probably wins. If Hunt and Gove, Hunt wins.
    Hunt would be fishing in the same poll as Sunak ie the moderate wing of the party and is basically Sunak without the charisma or electoral appeal so it won't be him, the hard Brexit right would put up a candidate, probably Patel or Raab who would end up in the final 2 with Sunak
    You know far more than I do on this, but my sense is that you are underestimating Hunt. I think he runs on a ticket with Javid as chancellor. This would appeal to sufficient MPs to get through that aspect and then to the membership as a solid, capable solution. Sunak, I hear, is pissing off a lot of MPs who have taken to referring to him as "the boy from accounts".
    Can we all please remember that we are not Yanks. Our politicians do not ‘run’ for office, they ‘stand’ for it.

    Although I would love to see Donald Trump and Joe Biden both literally running across America to get to Pennsylvania Avenue, so we could have President Harris.
    Opps, yes thanks, fellow pedant. As long as you are consistent and tell Kinabalu off for using z`s in the place of s`s.
    Has he? Disgusting, he’ll be having pizzas with pineapple on them next.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,052
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    I'd wondered about this. Is it really just the media whipping up a fringe view to object to, say, the North getting tougher restrictions while its higher there?
    People generally want tighter restrictions on others and to keep their own job. Those views are not a good basis for fair or effective governance.
    I'm not saying simply following what people vaguely say they want is necessarily a good idea. But it is important to note if people are generally supportive when others are claiming on their behalf that they are not. The actual arguments may still run counter to what people claim they support, and should be followed if so, but we do need to at least know what they think as best we can.
    Yes it is fairly clear that people are generally in favour of more restrictions. What would be more telling is how many want to restrict activities that they have themselves participated in or benefit from:

    How many restaurant goers want to restrict restaurants?
    How many people who are travelling abroad want to restrict foreign travel?
    How many single people want social gatherings limited to two households?
    How many people using public transport for their job want to restrict public transport?
    How many people working in the hotel industry want to restrict hotel stays?

    It is trivially easy to support restrictions on the things others do, and wanting to keep the things that are important to you or your own job open. It is not surprising that is where most people are.
    As ever in our politics, we suffer from a majority being economically inactive.
    More generally with a majority taking out of the system and not putting in. Raising the threshold at which people pay income tax has hugely contributed to that. I think there's a case for increasing UC but making it taxable, like other forms of income, so that even the poorest have a stake in keeping taxes low. As it is, we are putting more and more of a burden on the productive and enterprising members of society.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Suggests Rishi Sunak is the leader in waiting for the Tories if Labour takes and builds a consistent poll lead which it still has not done yet
    It does. He needs taking down asap.
    The way the Tories do internal opposition so that the natural successor as PM is always seen as someone within the Conservative Party is really quite brilliant, when you think about it...
    Well, May to Johnson, yes. But Cameron to May? Thatch to Major? Harder to see there.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,400

    Gove would be a better PM than Johnson but of course that likely means Cummings staying around which is the real issue.

    Hunt would be the best candidate IMHO, the Starmer of the Tories. That would be an interesting election.

    Does any other Tory have the connection to the Red Wall, which I think even Johnson is starting to lose (albeit slowly) going by some polling

    There is absolutely no point the Tories changing leader right now. Let Johnson carry the can.

    Politics is brutal. Johnson behaved liked a sh1t for so long, and received no punishment.

    He is now being punished for something that is not really his fault.
    Being utterly incompetent and unsuitable for the job he has spent his entire life work towards is not his fault?

    It's an argument but not one that stands up to any scrutiny.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    Stocky said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I feel sorry for her. I don`t think she`s a stunning intellect and may have acted in shock when she got the positive result (which she may have been surprised about). It left her in London, worried and wanting to get home. And realising that he was in the sh1t for being in parliament. Overall - in panic I`d say.

    There are going to be human sacrifices, as the public become increasingly resentful about what is happening and look for people to blame.

    Ferrier is just the first human sacrifice. There are more politicians that will meet the purifying fire.

    Ferrier was stupid & deserves a whopping fine. But, hounding out of office, no.
    She absolutely does deserve to be kicked out of office but Cummings has ensured that won't happen.

    Of course it's interesting to see Tories once again doing a U-turn and now supporting law and order and people following the rules.

    Perhaps it's all just political point scoring and not about the right thing at all? The Tory Party is as morally bankrupt as any other party, they're just better at winning elections.
    You can’t ‘kick an MP out of office’ unless they are convicted of an offence carrying a twelve month prison sentence.

    If she’s fined, however, that will presumably initiate a recall petition and I have no doubt she would be recalled and thrashed under those circumstances.

    The question might be whether, if she stood, she would split the nationalist vote. But frankly, from what I know I doubt if many people would vote for her.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    ydoethur said:

    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Suggests Rishi Sunak is the leader in waiting for the Tories if Labour takes and builds a consistent poll lead which it still has not done yet
    He's probably the only contender they have, the rest of the cabinet are woeful.

    I wonder if Hunt will have another go?
    Sunak, Hunt, Gove, Patel.

    Which two would go through to the membership ballot? My best guess would be Hunt and Sunak, in which case Sunak probably wins. If Hunt and Gove, Hunt wins.
    Hunt would be fishing in the same poll as Sunak ie the moderate wing of the party and is basically Sunak without the charisma or electoral appeal so it won't be him, the hard Brexit right would put up a candidate, probably Patel or Raab who would end up in the final 2 with Sunak
    You know far more than I do on this, but my sense is that you are underestimating Hunt. I think he runs on a ticket with Javid as chancellor. This would appeal to sufficient MPs to get through that aspect and then to the membership as a solid, capable solution. Sunak, I hear, is pissing off a lot of MPs who have taken to referring to him as "the boy from accounts".
    Can we all please remember that we are not Yanks. Our politicians do not ‘run’ for office, they ‘stand’ for it.

    Although I would love to see Donald Trump and Joe Biden both literally running across America to get to Pennsylvania Avenue, so we could have President Harris.
    Opps, yes thanks, fellow pedant. As long as you are consistent and tell Kinabalu off for using z`s in the place of s`s.
    Has he? Disgusting, he’ll be having pizzas with pineapple on them next.
    How about when Americans say "oftentimes"? "I go to the park oftentimes" - Ahh.

    Americans: we already have a word for "oftentimes". It`s often.
  • eek said:

    Gove would be a better PM than Johnson but of course that likely means Cummings staying around which is the real issue.

    Hunt would be the best candidate IMHO, the Starmer of the Tories. That would be an interesting election.

    Does any other Tory have the connection to the Red Wall, which I think even Johnson is starting to lose (albeit slowly) going by some polling

    There is absolutely no point the Tories changing leader right now. Let Johnson carry the can.

    Politics is brutal. Johnson behaved liked a sh1t for so long, and received no punishment.

    He is now being punished for something that is not really his fault.
    Being utterly incompetent and unsuitable for the job he has spent his entire life work towards is not his fault?

    It's an argument but not one that stands up to any scrutiny.
    Is it his fault he fails upwards?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Lockdown harder....

    BBC News - Covid: Second national lockdown possible, says top UK scientist
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54498191

    I would not worry. Based on past performance we will all get at least a week's notice beforehand ;)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    Lockdown harder....

    BBC News - Covid: Second national lockdown possible, says top UK scientist
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54498191

    Second Great Depression is nailed on if we do that again.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    Lockdown harder....

    BBC News - Covid: Second national lockdown possible, says top UK scientist
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54498191

    I would not worry. Based on past performance we will all get at least a week's notice beforehand ;)
    How long will we get for Lockdown with a Vengeance?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    Lockdown harder....

    BBC News - Covid: Second national lockdown possible, says top UK scientist
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54498191

    Second Great Depression is nailed on if we do that again.
    At risk of being picky, it would be the Third Great Depression.
  • RobD said:

    nico679 said:

    Trump needed Covid under control and the economy rebounding quickly in the run up to the election . He got neither and the virus is now taking off again in key swing states . Regardless of whether Biden could have done much better the electorate who aren’t part of the Trump Cult are fed up and will vote accordingly .

    As elsewhere, the virus appears to be increasing in the US but the pattern has changed. The big cities and heavily populated States are still generally not so bad; it's the flyover States, previously little affected, which are beginning to feel the curse.
    First wave, part two?
    Fauci indicated a while bck that the first wave in the US had never ended and I think that's right. At least in this country we did see cases drop to very low levels for a while. The States has never got anywhere that position. You wonder if it ever will.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,400
    Stocky said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I feel sorry for her. I don`t think she`s a stunning intellect and may have acted in shock when she got the positive result (which she may have been surprised about). It left her in London, worried and wanting to get home. And realising that he was in the sh1t for being in parliament. Overall - in panic I`d say.

    On the other hand - she`s now clinging on for the financial benefits - and I do mark her down for that.
    If she had the test in London that argument works. If she had the test in Scotland then you wait there for your results.

    We missed visiting Child B as Child A had a Covid test and we couldn't sensible leave the house until we got the test result.
  • Fishing said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    I'd wondered about this. Is it really just the media whipping up a fringe view to object to, say, the North getting tougher restrictions while its higher there?
    People generally want tighter restrictions on others and to keep their own job. Those views are not a good basis for fair or effective governance.
    I'm not saying simply following what people vaguely say they want is necessarily a good idea. But it is important to note if people are generally supportive when others are claiming on their behalf that they are not. The actual arguments may still run counter to what people claim they support, and should be followed if so, but we do need to at least know what they think as best we can.
    Yes it is fairly clear that people are generally in favour of more restrictions. What would be more telling is how many want to restrict activities that they have themselves participated in or benefit from:

    How many restaurant goers want to restrict restaurants?
    How many people who are travelling abroad want to restrict foreign travel?
    How many single people want social gatherings limited to two households?
    How many people using public transport for their job want to restrict public transport?
    How many people working in the hotel industry want to restrict hotel stays?

    It is trivially easy to support restrictions on the things others do, and wanting to keep the things that are important to you or your own job open. It is not surprising that is where most people are.
    As ever in our politics, we suffer from a majority being economically inactive.
    More generally with a majority taking out of the system and not putting in. Raising the threshold at which people pay income tax has hugely contributed to that. I think there's a case for increasing UC but making it taxable, like other forms of income, so that even the poorest have a stake in keeping taxes low. As it is, we are putting more and more of a burden on the productive and enterprising members of society.
    Interesting post, I instinctively favour taking the low paid out of income tax through the threshold but you might be right in terms of mental accounting. The low paid do pay plenty of other taxes, so the burden is very much shared with them.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Stocky said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I feel sorry for her. I don`t think she`s a stunning intellect and may have acted in shock when she got the positive result (which she may have been surprised about). It left her in London, worried and wanting to get home. And realising that he was in the sh1t for being in parliament. Overall - in panic I`d say.

    There are going to be human sacrifices, as the public become increasingly resentful about what is happening and look for people to blame.

    Ferrier is just the first human sacrifice. There are more politicians that will meet the purifying fire.

    Ferrier was stupid & deserves a whopping fine. But, hounding out of office, no.
    She absolutely does deserve to be kicked out of office but Cummings has ensured that won't happen.

    Of course it's interesting to see Tories once again doing a U-turn and now supporting law and order and people following the rules.

    Perhaps it's all just political point scoring and not about the right thing at all? The Tory Party is as morally bankrupt as any other party, they're just better at winning elections.
    I'd be careful. Politicians have all parties have broken lockdown rules.

    I am inclined to grant a bit of leeway, whether the politician is Stephen Kinnock, Vaughan Gething, Margaret Ferrier or Dominic Cummings.

    I am certainly not interested in orchestrating human sacrifices.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,411
    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Suggests Rishi Sunak is the leader in waiting for the Tories if Labour takes and builds a consistent poll lead which it still has not done yet
    He's probably the only contender they have, the rest of the cabinet are woeful.

    I wonder if Hunt will have another go?
    Sunak, Hunt, Gove, Patel.

    Which two would go through to the membership ballot? My best guess would be Hunt and Sunak, in which case Sunak probably wins. If Hunt and Gove, Hunt wins.
    Hunt would be fishing in the same poll as Sunak ie the moderate wing of the party and is basically Sunak without the charisma or electoral appeal so it won't be him, the hard Brexit right would put up a candidate, probably Patel or Raab who would end up in the final 2 with Sunak
    You know far more than I do on this, but my sense is that you are underestimating Hunt. I think he runs on a ticket with Javid as chancellor. This would appeal to sufficient MPs to get through that aspect and then to the membership as a solid, capable solution. Sunak, I hear, is pissing off a lot of MPs who have taken to referring to him as "the boy from accounts".
    Can we all please remember that we are not Yanks. Our politicians do not ‘run’ for office, they ‘stand’ for it.

    Although I would love to see Donald Trump and Joe Biden both literally running across America to get to Pennsylvania Avenue, so we could have President Harris.
    Opps, yes thanks, fellow pedant. As long as you are consistent and tell Kinabalu off for using z`s in the place of s`s.
    Has he? Disgusting, he’ll be having pizzas with pineapple on them next.
    How about when Americans say "oftentimes"? "I go to the park oftentimes" - Ahh.

    Americans: we already have a word for "oftentimes". It`s often.
    Like most Americanisms it is simply archaic. Oftentimes it is us who have changed the language and they've kept it the same.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gove would be a better PM than Johnson but of course that likely means Cummings staying around which is the real issue.

    Hunt would be the best candidate IMHO, the Starmer of the Tories. That would be an interesting election.

    Does any other Tory have the connection to the Red Wall, which I think even Johnson is starting to lose (albeit slowly) going by some polling

    Hunt v Starmer would be the most boring election in history, have we ever had 2 duller party leaders at a general election as those 2 would be? Competence maybe but charisma 0
    Yeah, who needs competence when we can have charisma! It's only government, after all.
    I expect Farage though would make headway against those 2, particularly amongst working class voters
    And if everything goes really pear, economic meltdown and social unrest on a scale that makes people fear for the very fabric of England, somebody else awaits, a man poised to take the baton from a fading "eyes on cashing out" Farage and run further with it than even that redoubtable populist campaigner ever managed. Lozza Fox.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    To communicate effectively she needs a coherent message she can deliver. The "govt" changing their minds every other day will not give her a lot to work with.

    Nonetheless, perhaps she can present total cr*p in a professional manner without the bumbling bluster we have become accustomed to....

    It was suggested they want this to be like the Whitehouse press briefings.

    Like those, I expect Ms Stratton will be able to stand behind a podium and claim Black is White in a very professional manner.

    Whether that helps with good governance is not immediately obvious.
    From what I have seen of WH breifings, it is not something I would want replicated here. Or do you mean Obama-era Press Breifings?
    Or indeed Mary Whitehouse press briefings?
    These days the Mary Whitehouse moral restraints have been embraced by quite a large chunk of feminists.
    I will just point out that the core message of feminism is equal opportunity regardless of gender.

    Mary Whitehouse's moral escapades had more to do with prurience, religion and social conservatism. She was against feminism, children's rights and gay rights.

    In short, she was a social dinosaur, not an advocate of progress...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    edited October 2020

    Stocky said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I feel sorry for her. I don`t think she`s a stunning intellect and may have acted in shock when she got the positive result (which she may have been surprised about). It left her in London, worried and wanting to get home. And realising that he was in the sh1t for being in parliament. Overall - in panic I`d say.

    There are going to be human sacrifices, as the public become increasingly resentful about what is happening and look for people to blame.

    Ferrier is just the first human sacrifice. There are more politicians that will meet the purifying fire.

    Ferrier was stupid & deserves a whopping fine. But, hounding out of office, no.
    She absolutely does deserve to be kicked out of office but Cummings has ensured that won't happen.

    Of course it's interesting to see Tories once again doing a U-turn and now supporting law and order and people following the rules.

    Perhaps it's all just political point scoring and not about the right thing at all? The Tory Party is as morally bankrupt as any other party, they're just better at winning elections.
    I'd be careful. Politicians have all parties have broken lockdown rules.

    I am inclined to grant a bit of leeway, whether the politician is Stephen Kinnock, Vaughan Gething, Margaret Ferrier or Dominic Cummings.

    I am certainly not interested in orchestrating human sacrifices.
    No special fan of the Kinnocks, but Stephen Kinnock did not break lockdown rules. There was confusion as South Wales Police, who are not very bright, thought he was in South Wales and had driven to London. In fact he was in London and had popped round his parents’ place to deliver food, staying at distance.

    It was Rosie Duffield MP who screwed up for Labour.

    As for Vaughan Gething, he’s so useless he should have resigned anyway. He makes Leighton Andrews look like a model of probity, intelligence and politeness.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,718
    edited October 2020
    ydoethur said:

    Lockdown harder....

    BBC News - Covid: Second national lockdown possible, says top UK scientist
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54498191

    I would not worry. Based on past performance we will all get at least a week's notice beforehand ;)
    How long will we get for Lockdown with a Vengeance?
    Could it be a Christmas Movie?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    edited October 2020
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Lockdown harder....

    BBC News - Covid: Second national lockdown possible, says top UK scientist
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54498191

    I would not worry. Based on past performance we will all get at least a week's notice beforehand ;)
    How long will we get for Lockdown with a Vengeance?
    Could it be a Christmas Movie?
    Wa-hey, controversy!

    Edit - speaking of which, I haven’t had to put my heating on yet (I accidentally turned it on for half an hour this morning). I think this is the latest I’ve not needed it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    nico679 said:

    Trump needed Covid under control and the economy rebounding quickly in the run up to the election . He got neither and the virus is now taking off again in key swing states . Regardless of whether Biden could have done much better the electorate who aren’t part of the Trump Cult are fed up and will vote accordingly .

    Where I am atm -

    Biden close 20%
    Biden easy 40%
    Biden BIG 25%
    Trump close 10%
    Trump easy 4%
    Trump BIG 1%

    Only risk? Joe gets sick.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,131
    An unusual move - oh to be a fly on the wall for this meeting.

    Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has held an unexpected meeting with political opponents in the jail where they are currently detained.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54496233
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,411
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gove would be a better PM than Johnson but of course that likely means Cummings staying around which is the real issue.

    Hunt would be the best candidate IMHO, the Starmer of the Tories. That would be an interesting election.

    Does any other Tory have the connection to the Red Wall, which I think even Johnson is starting to lose (albeit slowly) going by some polling

    Hunt v Starmer would be the most boring election in history, have we ever had 2 duller party leaders at a general election as those 2 would be? Competence maybe but charisma 0
    Yeah, who needs competence when we can have charisma! It's only government, after all.
    I expect Farage though would make headway against those 2, particularly amongst working class voters
    And if everything goes really pear, economic meltdown and social unrest on a scale that makes people fear for the very fabric of England, somebody else awaits, a man poised to take the baton from a fading "eyes on cashing out" Farage and run further with it than even that redoubtable populist campaigner ever managed. Lozza Fox.
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gove would be a better PM than Johnson but of course that likely means Cummings staying around which is the real issue.

    Hunt would be the best candidate IMHO, the Starmer of the Tories. That would be an interesting election.

    Does any other Tory have the connection to the Red Wall, which I think even Johnson is starting to lose (albeit slowly) going by some polling

    Hunt v Starmer would be the most boring election in history, have we ever had 2 duller party leaders at a general election as those 2 would be? Competence maybe but charisma 0
    Yeah, who needs competence when we can have charisma! It's only government, after all.
    I expect Farage though would make headway against those 2, particularly amongst working class voters
    And if everything goes really pear, economic meltdown and social unrest on a scale that makes people fear for the very fabric of England, somebody else awaits, a man poised to take the baton from a fading "eyes on cashing out" Farage and run further with it than even that redoubtable populist campaigner ever managed. Lozza Fox.
    On the subject of archaicism.
    Haven't seen pear shaped for many a year.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,718

    RobD said:

    nico679 said:

    Trump needed Covid under control and the economy rebounding quickly in the run up to the election . He got neither and the virus is now taking off again in key swing states . Regardless of whether Biden could have done much better the electorate who aren’t part of the Trump Cult are fed up and will vote accordingly .

    As elsewhere, the virus appears to be increasing in the US but the pattern has changed. The big cities and heavily populated States are still generally not so bad; it's the flyover States, previously little affected, which are beginning to feel the curse.
    First wave, part two?
    Fauci indicated a while bck that the first wave in the US had never ended and I think that's right. At least in this country we did see cases drop to very low levels for a while. The States has never got anywhere that position. You wonder if it ever will.
    I think that waves go by cities rather than nations, so some are only getting their true first waves now.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    I'd wondered about this. Is it really just the media whipping up a fringe view to object to, say, the North getting tougher restrictions while its higher there?
    People generally want tighter restrictions on others and to keep their own job. Those views are not a good basis for fair or effective governance.
    I'm not saying simply following what people vaguely say they want is necessarily a good idea. But it is important to note if people are generally supportive when others are claiming on their behalf that they are not. The actual arguments may still run counter to what people claim they support, and should be followed if so, but we do need to at least know what they think as best we can.
    Yes it is fairly clear that people are generally in favour of more restrictions. What would be more telling is how many want to restrict activities that they have themselves participated in or benefit from:

    How many restaurant goers want to restrict restaurants?
    How many people who are travelling abroad want to restrict foreign travel?
    How many single people want social gatherings limited to two households?
    How many people using public transport for their job want to restrict public transport?
    How many people working in the hotel industry want to restrict hotel stays?

    It is trivially easy to support restrictions on the things others do, and wanting to keep the things that are important to you or your own job open. It is not surprising that is where most people are.
    I don't agree. The case for restrictions is that the person who would otherwise do whatever is restricted will acquire the infection "and pass it on". If people on an island with no connection to the mainland unanimously wish to do anything at all we can be relaxed about it - infect each other, have orgies together, go ahead! But in practice we are all dependent on what those we may come into contact with are doing.

    On your basis, I'd think that every restriction would be rejected - it's a "let it rip" scenario.
    I am not suggesting "let it rip" at all. I was making the point that of course people are in favour of restrictions that don't impact them but might give them a chance of living longer. Also that the polling that shows that, doesn't tell us anything interesting or anything that should guide the level of restrictions that are needed.

    A good government should be implementing a balance of the most effective and least harmful restrictions needed to control the virus. If that means closing pubs so be it, but we definitely shouldn't close pubs simply because people who don't use them are happy to see them closed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,131
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Lockdown harder....

    BBC News - Covid: Second national lockdown possible, says top UK scientist
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54498191

    I would not worry. Based on past performance we will all get at least a week's notice beforehand ;)
    How long will we get for Lockdown with a Vengeance?
    Could it be a Christmas Movie?
    Wa-hey, controversy!

    Edit - speaking of which, I haven’t had to put my heating on yet (I accidentally turned it on for half an hour this morning). I think this is the latest I’ve not needed it.
    I always try to hold out until at least November because I'm well hard. Also stingy.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    dixiedean said:

    On the subject of archaicism.
    Haven't seen pear shaped for many a year.

    :smile: - Oh no, means I'm off the pace. But I've always liked it so will keep in my locker.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    edited October 2020
    I see in the Sunday Telegraph, that our post-Brexit "Openness to the World" includes building a wall in the channel made out of err.... fishing nets.

    Apparently when we catch migrants we will land them in France.

    The French are already warning that we have exceeded the quota for catching Migrants and they cannot accept any we catch.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    edited October 2020
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Lockdown harder....

    BBC News - Covid: Second national lockdown possible, says top UK scientist
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54498191

    I would not worry. Based on past performance we will all get at least a week's notice beforehand ;)
    How long will we get for Lockdown with a Vengeance?
    Could it be a Christmas Movie?
    Wa-hey, controversy!

    Edit - speaking of which, I haven’t had to put my heating on yet (I accidentally turned it on for half an hour this morning). I think this is the latest I’ve not needed it.
    I always try to hold out until at least November because I'm well hard. Also stingy.
    Likewise.

    At the moment, I’m lighting the stove when it’s chilly and that keeps the whole house warm due to a central chimney. And as all the wood I got came from a dismantled shed and a new extension being built, that’s not costing me anything.

    But I’ve not got this deep into October without needing some heat in the mornings.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,718
    Long chat with Fox jr2 last night.

    He is rather enjoying his course, seems to be studying hard and learning quite a bit. University online is suiting him. He reckons online lectures are better as can go over them again for missed bits, seminars are a bit stilted on Teams, between technical issues and the students not meeting face to face. His acting group is planning a production for next summer.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    I see in the Sunday Telegraph, that our post-Brexit "Openness to the World" includes building a wall in the channel made out of err.... fishing nets.

    Apparently when we catch migrants we will land them in France.

    The French are already warning that we have exceeded the quota for catching Migrants and they cannot accept any we catch.

    Playing the same old tuna.

    It’s the sole one they have.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    isam said:
    Looks like there is life in Peckham.

    Nice clip anyway. Good to see a bit of street cricket rather than any aggro.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Despatch from the front line:

    Realised at 9 pm last night I'd been coughing for a couple of days. Internet offers drive through test 10 miles away in Plymouth, half hour time slots available any time today. Just been along, two cars in front of me in the queue, all done and dusted within 15 minutes.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,718
    edited October 2020
    kle4 said:

    An unusual move - oh to be a fly on the wall for this meeting.

    Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has held an unexpected meeting with political opponents in the jail where they are currently detained.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54496233

    He is toast then. Just negotiating his retirement exile.
  • HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Suggests Rishi Sunak is the leader in waiting for the Tories if Labour takes and builds a consistent poll lead which it still has not done yet
    He's probably the only contender they have, the rest of the cabinet are woeful.

    I wonder if Hunt will have another go?
    Sunak, Hunt, Gove, Patel.

    Which two would go through to the membership ballot? My best guess would be Hunt and Sunak, in which case Sunak probably wins. If Hunt and Gove, Hunt wins.
    Hunt would be fishing in the same poll as Sunak ie the moderate wing of the party and is basically Sunak without the charisma or electoral appeal so it won't be him, the hard Brexit right would put up a candidate, probably Patel or Raab who would end up in the final 2 with Sunak
    You know far more than I do on this, but my sense is that you are underestimating Hunt. I think he runs on a ticket with Javid as chancellor. This would appeal to sufficient MPs to get through that aspect and then to the membership as a solid, capable solution. Sunak, I hear, is pissing off a lot of MPs who have taken to referring to him as "the boy from accounts".
    You can get Sunak or Hunt in the final round, you cannot get both as they are both mainly fishing in the same pool of moderate MPs
    Is Sunak that moderate?

    On Brexit, yes, he'd not drive the Brexit Bus off the White Cliffs of Dover.

    But on, say, economics, who is the real Rishi? The furlough man, or the one who wanted everyone to go back to work?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    QAnon has hit Germany:



    "Early in the pandemic, as thousands of American troops began NATO maneuvers in Germany, Attila Hildmann did a quick YouTube search to see what it was all about. He quickly came across videos posted by German followers of QAnon.

    In their telling, this was no NATO exercise. It was a covert operation by President Trump to liberate Germany from Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government — something they applauded."

    "Two weeks later, in the middle of the lockdown, the German pop star Xavier Naidoo, a former judge on Germany’s equivalent of “American Idol,” joined a QAnon group and posted a tearful YouTube video in which he told his followers about children being liberated from underground prisons. "


    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/11/world/europe/qanon-is-thriving-in-germany-the-extreme-right-is-delighted.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    IshmaelZ said:

    Despatch from the front line:

    Realised at 9 pm last night I'd been coughing for a couple of days. Internet offers drive through test 10 miles away in Plymouth, half hour time slots available any time today. Just been along, two cars in front of me in the queue, all done and dusted within 15 minutes.

    Good luck!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    edited October 2020
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    An unusual move - oh to be a fly on the wall for this meeting.

    Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has held an unexpected meeting with political opponents in the jail where they are currently detained.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54496233

    He is toast then. Just negotiating his retirement exile.
    Maybe a sign Putin is tacking into the wind? Can’t imagine Lukashenko would be talking if he thought he had Moscow’s unequivocal backing.

    I do hope he’s toast. Man’s an utter bastard.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Despatch from the front line:

    Realised at 9 pm last night I'd been coughing for a couple of days. Internet offers drive through test 10 miles away in Plymouth, half hour time slots available any time today. Just been along, two cars in front of me in the queue, all done and dusted within 15 minutes.

    Good luck!
    Thank you. I don't see where I'd have caught it and there is nothing unusual about the cough, but the algorithm says have cough>get tested, with no scope for auto-triage, so I thought I'd stick to the rules.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited October 2020
    Best wishes to you @IshmaelZ, hope it all turns out ok
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,463
    IshmaelZ said:

    Despatch from the front line:

    Realised at 9 pm last night I'd been coughing for a couple of days. Internet offers drive through test 10 miles away in Plymouth, half hour time slots available any time today. Just been along, two cars in front of me in the queue, all done and dusted within 15 minutes.

    Best of, when do you expect the result?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Despatch from the front line:

    Realised at 9 pm last night I'd been coughing for a couple of days. Internet offers drive through test 10 miles away in Plymouth, half hour time slots available any time today. Just been along, two cars in front of me in the queue, all done and dusted within 15 minutes.

    Best of, when do you expect the result?
    Thank you. 24-48 hours they say. This is purely precautionary though (but then I've said that before and it urned out to be anything but...)
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Best wishes to you @IshmaelZ, hope it all turns out ok

    Thank you. As I say, this is abundance of caution stuff (though West Devon doesn't feel as bulletproof as it did, there's rumours of a superspreader at the pasty shop in Tavistock).

    I was slightly surprised to see so little business being done at the test centre, was thinking they might be sending people down from the plague-ridden hell of Exeter.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    edited October 2020
    I must admit I’m starting to feel very lonely now, as an adult living on their own. Sad times.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,805
    For anyone interested the Worldometer now has a new projection date for the USA of 1/2/21 of 395K deaths.

    The previous projected date was 1/1/21 and if you plot that on the graph it is showing a projection of 323K now. The big difference is because it is projecting deaths to increase to 2K - 2.5K per day in January.

    Worth noting however that the 1/1/21 projected total peaked at 415K deaths and has dropped numerous times since to the current 323K projection.

    Cases seem to have hit the bottom of the curve and are now on the way up again. Deaths are on a very shallow downward curve - To all intents and purposes flat with mid week daily death figures in the 900s

  • Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    And as well as hiring someone to do his talking and thinking for him, BoZo also wants to hire someone to do the rest of his day job for him...

    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1315202835571716104

    He's gone full Radovan Karadic with the hair. He has analogous lack of moral restraint too.
    Karadzic possibly the better writer tho'..
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    No messing in today's leader in the Telegraph:


    "Above all, [Johnson] needs to spell out his Covid exit strategy. Britain’s economy and society cannot face another six months of the current madness. "
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,390
    On Allegra Stratton, I think it's a really interesting appointment. She's extremely able. She is also part of the (liberal) metropolitan elite: educated at Latymer then Cambridge, lives in Islington, worked for the BBC among others, married to the political editor of the Spectator (with Sunak his best man). She's part of the Islington establishment, and I reckon she's a bit of a centrist and not very right wing, unless she's changed. So it's brave of her to take the job, but it may end in tears. It suggests Boris does want to communicate a 'softer', more liberal, modern take, which may not please folk like Patel, Cummings and the ERG wing of the party. Watch this space, I reckon.
  • DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    My serious expectation is that by 2024 President Harris will be in office and unchallengeable on the Democratic side. I simply don't see Biden being able to do 4 years of such a tough job at his age. That make Buttigieg a non starter (although he may well be VP by then).
    On the Republican side you'd like to think that a wave of moral revulsion would overcome the Republicans as has happened for at least some in Labour post Corbyn. But maybe not, there is something in the symptom and not a cause point. But if they go down that road again I don't see them winning in 2024.

    I think there’s a chance if the party engaging in civil war, especially as there is no obvious strong unifying candidate.
    I presume you mean the republicans? And yes, small state, low tax, pro business, moderate Republicans must be feeling as politically homeless now as sane centre left voters did with Corbyn. If the Republicans are going to carry on down the racist, xenophobic, gun crazy, chaotic path that Trump has followed a new party may well spring up.
    The problem with the 'small state, low tax, pro business, moderate Republicans' is that they were rarely moderate.

    Rather they were extremists for low taxes (and regulations) on the rich and big business plus a liking for Middle Eastern warmongering.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,718
    IshmaelZ said:

    Despatch from the front line:

    Realised at 9 pm last night I'd been coughing for a couple of days. Internet offers drive through test 10 miles away in Plymouth, half hour time slots available any time today. Just been along, two cars in front of me in the queue, all done and dusted within 15 minutes.

    A colleague tested positive this week, seemingly caught it off his kids. Next door neighbour has 1 kid at Leeds and 1 at Nottingham University down with it too.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    I must admit I’m starting to feel very lonely now, as an adult living on their own. Sad times.

    Sorry to hear that. Grim times. Hopefully the bants on here will help in a small way.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1315245976186220545

    This. 100x this.

    There is no exit strategy. It is all about waiting for a vaccine that might not come next year or be only partially effective.
  • kinabalu said:

    isam said:
    Looks like there is life in Peckham.

    Nice clip anyway. Good to see a bit of street cricket rather than any aggro.
    Its interesting how the rise and fall of the West Indies cricket team was mirrored by the rise and fall of English cricketers of West Indian heritage.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Despatch from the front line:

    Realised at 9 pm last night I'd been coughing for a couple of days. Internet offers drive through test 10 miles away in Plymouth, half hour time slots available any time today. Just been along, two cars in front of me in the queue, all done and dusted within 15 minutes.

    A colleague tested positive this week, seemingly caught it off his kids. Next door neighbour has 1 kid at Leeds and 1 at Nottingham University down with it too.
    You'd be lucky to not get it at Nottingham uni.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    On Allegra Stratton, I think it's a really interesting appointment. She's extremely able. She is also part of the (liberal) metropolitan elite: educated at Latymer then Cambridge, lives in Islington, worked for the BBC among others, married to the political editor of the Spectator (with Sunak his best man). She's part of the Islington establishment, and I reckon she's a bit of a centrist and not very right wing, unless she's changed. So it's brave of her to take the job, but it may end in tears. It suggests Boris does want to communicate a 'softer', more liberal, modern take, which may not please folk like Patel, Cummings and the ERG wing of the party. Watch this space, I reckon.

    Boris is part of the metropolitan, liberal elite! It isn't a surprise he appoints similar people - Political tribalists don't like to admit this because it means acknowledging to themselves they are on the same page as him a lot of things, and it feels better to have someone to project their hate on, esp if you can throw in a bit of class war.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    eek said:

    Gove would be a better PM than Johnson but of course that likely means Cummings staying around which is the real issue.

    Hunt would be the best candidate IMHO, the Starmer of the Tories. That would be an interesting election.

    Does any other Tory have the connection to the Red Wall, which I think even Johnson is starting to lose (albeit slowly) going by some polling

    There is absolutely no point the Tories changing leader right now. Let Johnson carry the can.

    Politics is brutal. Johnson behaved liked a sh1t for so long, and received no punishment.

    He is now being punished for something that is not really his fault.
    Being utterly incompetent and unsuitable for the job he has spent his entire life work towards is not his fault?

    It's an argument but not one that stands up to any scrutiny.
    Of course it does.

    If someone is incompetent in the job, it is the fault of the selection committee.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    IshmaelZ said:

    Best wishes to you @IshmaelZ, hope it all turns out ok

    Thank you. As I say, this is abundance of caution stuff (though West Devon doesn't feel as bulletproof as it did, there's rumours of a superspreader at the pasty shop in Tavistock).

    I was slightly surprised to see so little business being done at the test centre, was thinking they might be sending people down from the plague-ridden hell of Exeter.
    It is probably the local test centre for Aberdeen. Exeter residents have to go to Ipswich for testing ... ;)
  • TresTres Posts: 2,702

    On Allegra Stratton, I think it's a really interesting appointment. She's extremely able. She is also part of the (liberal) metropolitan elite: educated at Latymer then Cambridge, lives in Islington, worked for the BBC among others, married to the political editor of the Spectator (with Sunak his best man). She's part of the Islington establishment, and I reckon she's a bit of a centrist and not very right wing, unless she's changed. So it's brave of her to take the job, but it may end in tears. It suggests Boris does want to communicate a 'softer', more liberal, modern take, which may not please folk like Patel, Cummings and the ERG wing of the party. Watch this space, I reckon.

    It tells us a lot more about Stratton than it does about Johnson.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    I must admit I’m starting to feel very lonely now, as an adult living on their own. Sad times.

    I am always happy to talk if you feel you need to
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:
    Looks like there is life in Peckham.

    Nice clip anyway. Good to see a bit of street cricket rather than any aggro.
    Its interesting how the rise and fall of the West Indies cricket team was mirrored by the rise and fall of English cricketers of West Indian heritage.
    The pull of big money football and hoops?
  • isam said:

    On Allegra Stratton, I think it's a really interesting appointment. She's extremely able. She is also part of the (liberal) metropolitan elite: educated at Latymer then Cambridge, lives in Islington, worked for the BBC among others, married to the political editor of the Spectator (with Sunak his best man). She's part of the Islington establishment, and I reckon she's a bit of a centrist and not very right wing, unless she's changed. So it's brave of her to take the job, but it may end in tears. It suggests Boris does want to communicate a 'softer', more liberal, modern take, which may not please folk like Patel, Cummings and the ERG wing of the party. Watch this space, I reckon.

    Boris is part of the metropolitan, liberal elite! It isn't a surprise he appoints similar people - Political tribalists don't like to admit this because it means acknowledging to themselves they are on the same page as him a lot of things, and it feels better to have someone to project their hate on, esp if you can throw in a bit of class war.
    I don't agree with Johnson on basically anything and I am part of the "liberal elite"
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366
    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Despatch from the front line:

    Realised at 9 pm last night I'd been coughing for a couple of days. Internet offers drive through test 10 miles away in Plymouth, half hour time slots available any time today. Just been along, two cars in front of me in the queue, all done and dusted within 15 minutes.

    A colleague tested positive this week, seemingly caught it off his kids. Next door neighbour has 1 kid at Leeds and 1 at Nottingham University down with it too.
    Press reports of problems getting tests have ceased.

    One of the annoyances of problem-only reporting is that we are left assuming. Can we assume that schools are chugging along ok? or is it that schools in areas where the high end journalists live are ok?

    The reason for the shortage of tests and the reason for the reduction in apparent problems is clear from the data at https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

    At one stage tests *exceeded* capacity. Interestingly, this was as test capacity was being increased - for a brief period, demand increased faster than supply. Capacity has continued to increased and demand seems to have levelled off at a new, higher level.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Best wishes to you @IshmaelZ, hope it all turns out ok

    Thank you. As I say, this is abundance of caution stuff (though West Devon doesn't feel as bulletproof as it did, there's rumours of a superspreader at the pasty shop in Tavistock).

    I was slightly surprised to see so little business being done at the test centre, was thinking they might be sending people down from the plague-ridden hell of Exeter.
    It is probably the local test centre for Aberdeen. Exeter residents have to go to Ipswich for testing ... ;)
    Good point.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    tlg86 said:
    I’m sure you can imagine what I think of this.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,805

    I must admit I’m starting to feel very lonely now, as an adult living on their own. Sad times.

    Sorry to hear that Gallowgate. I wish I could help.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:
    Looks like there is life in Peckham.

    Nice clip anyway. Good to see a bit of street cricket rather than any aggro.
    Its interesting how the rise and fall of the West Indies cricket team was mirrored by the rise and fall of English cricketers of West Indian heritage.
    The pull of big money football and hoops?
    I was told by people in Barbados it was street tennis that had eclipsed cricket, more money and more exciting for the youngsters.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    tlg86 said:
    I’m sure you can imagine what I think of this.
    It probably won't happen, but it doesn't matter. We now know for sure what the owners of those six clubs think. They're an utter disgrace.
  • BBC News - Covid in Scotland: 'No guarantee' pubs will reopen in two weeks
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54498235

    The idea 2 weeks will do the trick is for the birds.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,905

    isam said:

    On Allegra Stratton, I think it's a really interesting appointment. She's extremely able. She is also part of the (liberal) metropolitan elite: educated at Latymer then Cambridge, lives in Islington, worked for the BBC among others, married to the political editor of the Spectator (with Sunak his best man). She's part of the Islington establishment, and I reckon she's a bit of a centrist and not very right wing, unless she's changed. So it's brave of her to take the job, but it may end in tears. It suggests Boris does want to communicate a 'softer', more liberal, modern take, which may not please folk like Patel, Cummings and the ERG wing of the party. Watch this space, I reckon.

    Boris is part of the metropolitan, liberal elite! It isn't a surprise he appoints similar people - Political tribalists don't like to admit this because it means acknowledging to themselves they are on the same page as him a lot of things, and it feels better to have someone to project their hate on, esp if you can throw in a bit of class war.
    I don't agree with Johnson on basically anything and I am part of the "liberal elite"
    Johnson may be elite - in the sense that he thinks he is untouchable - but there is no ay that he is liberal. He is as self-centred as they make them.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    BBC News - Covid in Scotland: 'No guarantee' pubs will reopen in two weeks
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54498235

    The idea 2 weeks will do the trick is for the birds.

    Good chance they won't reopen until 2021. By which time half will be bankrupt
  • eekeek Posts: 28,400
    LadyG said:

    BBC News - Covid in Scotland: 'No guarantee' pubs will reopen in two weeks
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54498235

    The idea 2 weeks will do the trick is for the birds.

    Good chance they won't reopen until 2021. By which time half will be bankrupt
    Half?, most will be.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    I must admit I’m starting to feel very lonely now, as an adult living on their own. Sad times.

    Sorry to hear that, it must be very difficult to be in that situation. What to suggest? As much fresh air as possible? Cycling for hours is a nice remedy I found. Listening to podcasts in the countryside, if you live near any
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366
    kjh said:

    I must admit I’m starting to feel very lonely now, as an adult living on their own. Sad times.

    Sorry to hear that Gallowgate. I wish I could help.
    One thing that seems to help is getting out of the house. Even walking along and seeing people on the other side of the road is something. I've a few friends in the on-their-own-in-a-small-flat situation and they all seem to find this helps.

    Mind you, families are succumbing to cabin fever a bit as well. Because it is no longer summer holiday weather outside, quite a few people are back to staying in all the time.
  • kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:
    Looks like there is life in Peckham.

    Nice clip anyway. Good to see a bit of street cricket rather than any aggro.
    Its interesting how the rise and fall of the West Indies cricket team was mirrored by the rise and fall of English cricketers of West Indian heritage.
    The pull of big money football and hoops?
    Sure, but can you see Viv Richards as a basketball player or Devon Malcolm as a footballer ?

    Few sportsmen are professional standard at more than one sport.
  • Johnson is a populist, he's part of the elite and he goes where the wind blows.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,131

    I must admit I’m starting to feel very lonely now, as an adult living on their own. Sad times.

    I feel for you. I have a very very limited social circle in any case, but at least I'm trapped inside with another person who doesn't completely drive me nuts.

    isam said:

    On Allegra Stratton, I think it's a really interesting appointment. She's extremely able. She is also part of the (liberal) metropolitan elite: educated at Latymer then Cambridge, lives in Islington, worked for the BBC among others, married to the political editor of the Spectator (with Sunak his best man). She's part of the Islington establishment, and I reckon she's a bit of a centrist and not very right wing, unless she's changed. So it's brave of her to take the job, but it may end in tears. It suggests Boris does want to communicate a 'softer', more liberal, modern take, which may not please folk like Patel, Cummings and the ERG wing of the party. Watch this space, I reckon.

    Boris is part of the metropolitan, liberal elite! It isn't a surprise he appoints similar people - Political tribalists don't like to admit this because it means acknowledging to themselves they are on the same page as him a lot of things, and it feels better to have someone to project their hate on, esp if you can throw in a bit of class war.
    I don't agree with Johnson on basically anything and I am part of the "liberal elite"
    People tend to forget how the 'elite' can actually be pretty diverse, hence rather ludicrous attempts by some in it to paint themselves as not part of it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366

    isam said:

    On Allegra Stratton, I think it's a really interesting appointment. She's extremely able. She is also part of the (liberal) metropolitan elite: educated at Latymer then Cambridge, lives in Islington, worked for the BBC among others, married to the political editor of the Spectator (with Sunak his best man). She's part of the Islington establishment, and I reckon she's a bit of a centrist and not very right wing, unless she's changed. So it's brave of her to take the job, but it may end in tears. It suggests Boris does want to communicate a 'softer', more liberal, modern take, which may not please folk like Patel, Cummings and the ERG wing of the party. Watch this space, I reckon.

    Boris is part of the metropolitan, liberal elite! It isn't a surprise he appoints similar people - Political tribalists don't like to admit this because it means acknowledging to themselves they are on the same page as him a lot of things, and it feels better to have someone to project their hate on, esp if you can throw in a bit of class war.
    I don't agree with Johnson on basically anything and I am part of the "liberal elite"
    Lockdowns?
    Financial support for people effected by COVID?
    International aid being spent on COVID vaccines for poorer countries?

    One thing about adversarial politics is that it is very easy to ignore the things you agree with your opponent on, and concentrate on the differences.
  • Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Despatch from the front line:

    Realised at 9 pm last night I'd been coughing for a couple of days. Internet offers drive through test 10 miles away in Plymouth, half hour time slots available any time today. Just been along, two cars in front of me in the queue, all done and dusted within 15 minutes.

    A colleague tested positive this week, seemingly caught it off his kids. Next door neighbour has 1 kid at Leeds and 1 at Nottingham University down with it too.
    You'd be lucky to not get it at Nottingham uni.
    My old stomping grounds. Main part of social life there was a challenge called Campus 14 ... A challenge to in 4 hours do a bar crawl of the 13 bars on campus and have a drink in all of them, 2 in the final bar which was formerly 2 bars. The challenge was "officially" banned in my second year but everyone still did it.

    I wonder if people have still been doing Campus 14 this year? Besides the usual alcohol concerns, nothing could encourage the spread of COVID more.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    My serious expectation is that by 2024 President Harris will be in office and unchallengeable on the Democratic side. I simply don't see Biden being able to do 4 years of such a tough job at his age. That make Buttigieg a non starter (although he may well be VP by then).
    On the Republican side you'd like to think that a wave of moral revulsion would overcome the Republicans as has happened for at least some in Labour post Corbyn. But maybe not, there is something in the symptom and not a cause point. But if they go down that road again I don't see them winning in 2024.

    I think there’s a chance if the party engaging in civil war, especially as there is no obvious strong unifying candidate.
    I presume you mean the republicans? And yes, small state, low tax, pro business, moderate Republicans must be feeling as politically homeless now as sane centre left voters did with Corbyn. If the Republicans are going to carry on down the racist, xenophobic, gun crazy, chaotic path that Trump has followed a new party may well spring up.
    The problem with the 'small state, low tax, pro business, moderate Republicans' is that they were rarely moderate.

    Rather they were extremists for low taxes (and regulations) on the rich and big business plus a liking for Middle Eastern warmongering.
    Not always, Bush Snr raised taxes on the rich as President to close the deficit and only took action to liberate Kuwait with UN support
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,905

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Suggests Rishi Sunak is the leader in waiting for the Tories if Labour takes and builds a consistent poll lead which it still has not done yet
    He's probably the only contender they have, the rest of the cabinet are woeful.

    I wonder if Hunt will have another go?
    Sunak, Hunt, Gove, Patel.

    Which two would go through to the membership ballot? My best guess would be Hunt and Sunak, in which case Sunak probably wins. If Hunt and Gove, Hunt wins.
    Hunt would be fishing in the same poll as Sunak ie the moderate wing of the party and is basically Sunak without the charisma or electoral appeal so it won't be him, the hard Brexit right would put up a candidate, probably Patel or Raab who would end up in the final 2 with Sunak
    You know far more than I do on this, but my sense is that you are underestimating Hunt. I think he runs on a ticket with Javid as chancellor. This would appeal to sufficient MPs to get through that aspect and then to the membership as a solid, capable solution. Sunak, I hear, is pissing off a lot of MPs who have taken to referring to him as "the boy from accounts".
    You can get Sunak or Hunt in the final round, you cannot get both as they are both mainly fishing in the same pool of moderate MPs
    Is Sunak that moderate?

    On Brexit, yes, he'd not drive the Brexit Bus off the White Cliffs of Dover.

    But on, say, economics, who is the real Rishi? The furlough man, or the one who wanted everyone to go back to work?
    He is whatever Cummings wants him to be at the time. His advisers are all Cummings stooges. No point in counting on Sunak for anything.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    I think we need Bad dad Boris on Monday....but we won't.

    https://twitter.com/CrimeLdn/status/1315231062776184833?s=19

    Some of the young people in this country are absolute idiots.

    This is why we need actual rules and why the Swedish model would not work.
    They're not idiots. They're young. They've given up six months of precious young life already, and now they just think Fuck it, I'm not going to die of it, I refuse to have a living death because of it

    The idea you can stop young humans drinking, dancing, kissing, embracing, socialising, falling in love, for month after month, is nuts.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    ClippP said:

    isam said:

    On Allegra Stratton, I think it's a really interesting appointment. She's extremely able. She is also part of the (liberal) metropolitan elite: educated at Latymer then Cambridge, lives in Islington, worked for the BBC among others, married to the political editor of the Spectator (with Sunak his best man). She's part of the Islington establishment, and I reckon she's a bit of a centrist and not very right wing, unless she's changed. So it's brave of her to take the job, but it may end in tears. It suggests Boris does want to communicate a 'softer', more liberal, modern take, which may not please folk like Patel, Cummings and the ERG wing of the party. Watch this space, I reckon.

    Boris is part of the metropolitan, liberal elite! It isn't a surprise he appoints similar people - Political tribalists don't like to admit this because it means acknowledging to themselves they are on the same page as him a lot of things, and it feels better to have someone to project their hate on, esp if you can throw in a bit of class war.
    I don't agree with Johnson on basically anything and I am part of the "liberal elite"
    Johnson may be elite - in the sense that he thinks he is untouchable - but there is no ay that he is liberal. He is as self-centred as they make them.
    I dunno. He’s pretty liberal with his sexual favours.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,131
    tlg86 said:


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/54499998
    It is also planned that, as well as the 'big six', ever-present league member Everton, West Ham United and Southampton - ninth and 11th respectively in the list of clubs who have featured in the most Premier League seasons - would be granted special status.

    If six of those nine clubs vote in favour of a proposal, it would be enough to get it passed.

    There is no mention of Aston Villa and Newcastle United, both of whom have featured in more Premier League campaigns than Manchester City.


    I don't understand why these plans require a reduction in the size of the league. And the voting changes seem entirely self serving and hard to justify.
  • Man Utd and Liverpool put forward a joint proposal to reduce the Premier League to 18 teams and the clubs to have much more say on matters including the league cup and in return will support the lower leagues with 250 million

    Seems it has support and looks like the start of something good for all football

    Well done to the two of them
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Not quite as blatant as his original plagiarism, but Biden channeling his inner Kinnock again with this level of pre-election triumphalism.

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-chicanery-polls-only-way-he-could-lose-election
This discussion has been closed.