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2024 vision. Some 66/1 and 50/1 tips to start off your Sunday – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,995
    Alistair said:

    Scott_xP said:
    That's like literally the entire argument that Salmondistas have made. The SNP should not have investigated the allegations.
    Comrade Delt-aye.
  • Options
    Scott_xP said:

    I understood it was always planned for January

    Probably true, which reinforces the point it's a Brexit ploy, not a Covid one.
    I am sure it is a post-Brexit innovation but I do rate Allegra Stratton, especially when considering her c.v.

    Indeed I was surprised she accepted the post but time will tell whether she succeeds
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,921

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    An imaginative defence from Ms Ferrier, now blaming the virus itself for making her act “out of character”

    Off topic

    Genius from Nippy. Ferrier has been chucked out of the party and encouraged to apply to the Chiltern Hundreds. She won't go! Once all this Covid nonsense has subsided, she can quietly return to the fold under the cover of darkness.
    SNP are not like the Tories, her tea is out from SNP perspective but looks like she is going to stick it out and get paid till 2024 and pick up the expenses, pension etc. She could join the Tories and no-one would notice the difference, would be among friends.
    PS; Sturgeon will be needing a job soon herself.
    I am not sure what you mean by your P.S. statement.

    Ferrier would be also better advised to STFU and not speak to the Scottish Sun.
    Sturgeon is in the crap with her failed attempt to put Salmond out of politics. The lies and cover ups are unravelling, her husband's involvement along with the unionist civil servants etc are all coming home to roost.
    Ferrier should indeed stay quiet , given she is 60 , sticking it out for next 4 years will take her close to retirement and be worth in region of half a million, nice job being an MP, any other profession you would be out on your ear.
    I see the attraction of Nicola. Nicola calmly attracts voters not necessarily of the independence faith.

    I don't see Salmond as the political titan he see himself to be. He is a Poundland Trotskyist Trump or Johnson. If anyone can derail the SNP he is your man.
    They tried to have him locked up for nothing, I hope they get what they deserve, though they are more likely to make more millions instead.
    I followed the case, and I was surprised by the verdict.

    I personally have no desire to see Salmond lynched. At the very least, however, he appeared to be unacceptably predatory. He displayed the same behaviour towards women we rightly call out from Trump and Johnson.
    He was cleared on all accounts and the complainants were shown to be either liars or had been egged into making complaints. fact he was snogging a few people at work is not a crime. They were no 20 year olds , all were very senior politicians or civil servants. Retrospective changing of rules, coaching of complainants , whatsapp groups colluding on stories and worse do not look very good. Lots to still come out and the defense witnesses were not reported , jury knew they were being lied to and reached the verdict accordingly.
    Typical establishment stitch up and he is damned regardless of outcome as the tame media had him sentenced before it got to court. Your post proves it , you know nothing of the details that were really discussed in court but have him labelled. Appearances are not always what they seem.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,989
    If Trump wins then Buttigieg would certainly go to the top of the pack for the Democratic nomination in 2024 and would seek to take office on a wave of change as the first openly gay President as Obama did as the first black President.

    If Biden wins however either he or Harris will almost certainly be Democratic nominee. If Biden wins big in November he may fancy himself as a Democratic Reagan and run again while if he steps aside due to age then Vice President Harris will be the strong favourite for the nomination.

    On the GOP side Cotton may be in the mix but Pence should still be favourite, if Trump wins as the incumbent Vice President he will be the frontrunner given Trump would be constitutionally barred from running again and even if Trump loses remember last time a President lost the White House after only one term of his party in the Oval Office, Carter in 1980, his Vice President Mondale won the Democratic nomination in 1984.
  • Options
    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Scott_xP said:
    Yep, this is the 'Get Covid Done' election in all but name. Whether Biden or any US President can achieve it quickly is debatable, but at this moment most Americans are fed up, and prepared to vote accordingly.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,995
    You can tell Salmond's a wrong un because he's one of these blokes with a weird motherwife like Macron and Mark Webber.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,913

    I am sure it is a post-Brexit innovation but I do rate Allegra Stratton, especially when considering her c.v.

    Indeed I was surprised she accepted the post but time will tell whether she succeeds

    There is an entertaining take on her first appearance in the The Times

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1314832503685996545
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274

    Scott_xP said:

    I understood it was always planned for January

    Probably true, which reinforces the point it's a Brexit ploy, not a Covid one.
    I am sure it is a post-Brexit innovation but I do rate Allegra Stratton, especially when considering her c.v.

    Indeed I was surprised she accepted the post but time will tell whether she succeeds
    I met her once; she seemed a very nice person. Surprising that she appears to have sold out to the clown.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,262
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    My serious expectation is that by 2024 President Harris will be in office and unchallengeable on the Democratic side. I simply don't see Biden being able to do 4 years of such a tough job at his age. That make Buttigieg a non starter (although he may well be VP by then).
    On the Republican side you'd like to think that a wave of moral revulsion would overcome the Republicans as has happened for at least some in Labour post Corbyn. But maybe not, there is something in the symptom and not a cause point. But if they go down that road again I don't see them winning in 2024.

    I think there’s a chance if the party engaging in civil war, especially as there is no obvious strong unifying candidate.
    I presume you mean the republicans? And yes, small state, low tax, pro business, moderate Republicans must be feeling as politically homeless now as sane centre left voters did with Corbyn. If the Republicans are going to carry on down the racist, xenophobic, gun crazy, chaotic path that Trump has followed a new party may well spring up.
    What, Change US ? :smile:
    I honestly think it would be a lot easier in the US than it is here. The parties in the US are far more ramshackle and less important than the individual candidates. Trump has remade the Republican party in his own image but most Presidents do the same.

    A new party backed by someone like Bezos or Gates so that money is no object would find the GOP easy meat. Here the loyalty to the party is much, much stronger making a breakaway more difficult. In the US there are now more people registered as Independents than there are Republican. These are deep and well stocked waters in which to fish.

    If Biden's Presidency turns shambolic, which lets face it is pretty likely, weakening the Dems the time will be ripe for a new force. The US is in desperate need of a fresh start in the same way as Macron did with En Marche in France.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,921
    Alistair said:

    Scott_xP said:
    That's like literally the entire argument that Salmondistas have made. The SNP should not have investigated the allegations.
    They should have been handled by the courts, retrospectively changing the rules and coaching people to complain is not what the Government and civil service should have been doing. If they had any real complaints they should have gone to the police, not had the police come and solicit them.
    Court case showed very clearly that there was no case and amazing that some of the participants did not end up in jail for blatantly lying says it all.
    All that money wasted on lawyers ,police , etc and it took the 15 jurors to see it.
  • Options

    Lisa Nandy struggling on Marr

    How, say?
    Marr called her out for not voting against these measures while condemning them

    She struggled during the interview as much as many other politicians, principally due to the complexity of the subject
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,164
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    An imaginative defence from Ms Ferrier, now blaming the virus itself for making her act “out of character”

    Off topic

    Genius from Nippy. Ferrier has been chucked out of the party and encouraged to apply to the Chiltern Hundreds. She won't go! Once all this Covid nonsense has subsided, she can quietly return to the fold under the cover of darkness.
    SNP are not like the Tories, her tea is out from SNP perspective but looks like she is going to stick it out and get paid till 2024 and pick up the expenses, pension etc. She could join the Tories and no-one would notice the difference, would be among friends.
    PS; Sturgeon will be needing a job soon herself.
    I am not sure what you mean by your P.S. statement.

    Ferrier would be also better advised to STFU and not speak to the Scottish Sun.
    Sturgeon is in the crap with her failed attempt to put Salmond out of politics. The lies and cover ups are unravelling, her husband's involvement along with the unionist civil servants etc are all coming home to roost.
    Ferrier should indeed stay quiet , given she is 60 , sticking it out for next 4 years will take her close to retirement and be worth in region of half a million, nice job being an MP, any other profession you would be out on your ear.
    I see the attraction of Nicola. Nicola calmly attracts voters not necessarily of the independence faith.

    I don't see Salmond as the political titan he see himself to be. He is a Poundland Trotskyist Trump or Johnson. If anyone can derail the SNP he is your man.
    They tried to have him locked up for nothing, I hope they get what they deserve, though they are more likely to make more millions instead.
    I followed the case, and I was surprised by the verdict.

    I personally have no desire to see Salmond lynched. At the very least, however, he appeared to be unacceptably predatory. He displayed the same behaviour towards women we rightly call out from Trump and Johnson.
    He was cleared on all accounts and the complainants were shown to be either liars or had been egged into making complaints. fact he was snogging a few people at work is not a crime. They were no 20 year olds , all were very senior politicians or civil servants. Retrospective changing of rules, coaching of complainants , whatsapp groups colluding on stories and worse do not look very good. Lots to still come out and the defense witnesses were not reported , jury knew they were being lied to and reached the verdict accordingly.
    Typical establishment stitch up and he is damned regardless of outcome as the tame media had him sentenced before it got to court. Your post proves it , you know nothing of the details that were really discussed in court but have him labelled. Appearances are not always what they seem.
    The first part of your first paragraph is almost the defence that " they were wearing a short skirt so they were asking for it". I would feel very uncomfortable with excusing Salmond's behaviour, even if everything else you say turns out to be true.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,921

    Alistair said:

    The Progress Scot poll is out (they ask a weird 1-10 how Unionist/Independencey are you question)

    https://twitter.com/progressscot/status/1315185527583322112?s=19

    Presumably 10 on the independence scale is those who thought Braveheart was a documentary?
    That was only English people, I assume the poll was done in Scotland where people are more realistic.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,599
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    An imaginative defence from Ms Ferrier, now blaming the virus itself for making her act “out of character”

    Off topic

    Genius from Nippy. Ferrier has been chucked out of the party and encouraged to apply to the Chiltern Hundreds. She won't go! Once all this Covid nonsense has subsided, she can quietly return to the fold under the cover of darkness.
    SNP are not like the Tories, her tea is out from SNP perspective but looks like she is going to stick it out and get paid till 2024 and pick up the expenses, pension etc. She could join the Tories and no-one would notice the difference, would be among friends.
    PS; Sturgeon will be needing a job soon herself.
    I am not sure what you mean by your P.S. statement.

    Ferrier would be also better advised to STFU and not speak to the Scottish Sun.
    Sturgeon is in the crap with her failed attempt to put Salmond out of politics. The lies and cover ups are unravelling, her husband's involvement along with the unionist civil servants etc are all coming home to roost.
    Ferrier should indeed stay quiet , given she is 60 , sticking it out for next 4 years will take her close to retirement and be worth in region of half a million, nice job being an MP, any other profession you would be out on your ear.
    I see the attraction of Nicola. Nicola calmly attracts voters not necessarily of the independence faith.

    I don't see Salmond as the political titan he see himself to be. He is a Poundland Trotskyist Trump or Johnson. If anyone can derail the SNP he is your man.
    They tried to have him locked up for nothing, I hope they get what they deserve, though they are more likely to make more millions instead.
    I followed the case, and I was surprised by the verdict.

    I personally have no desire to see Salmond lynched. At the very least, however, he appeared to be unacceptably predatory. He displayed the same behaviour towards women we rightly call out from Trump and Johnson.
    He was cleared on all accounts and the complainants were shown to be either liars or had been egged into making complaints. fact he was snogging a few people at work is not a crime. They were no 20 year olds , all were very senior politicians or civil servants. Retrospective changing of rules, coaching of complainants , whatsapp groups colluding on stories and worse do not look very good. Lots to still come out and the defense witnesses were not reported , jury knew they were being lied to and reached the verdict accordingly.
    Typical establishment stitch up and he is damned regardless of outcome as the tame media had him sentenced before it got to court. Your post proves it , you know nothing of the details that were really discussed in court but have him labelled. Appearances are not always what they seem.
    I have no particular axe to grind on the Salmond/Sturgeon feud, but it does look to me that we may wind up with Salmond doing enough to bring down Sturgeon. It would be ironic indeed if Salmond brought down Scottish Independence with her too. It is quite possible that he winds up maintaining the Union as a result.
  • Options
    nico679 said:

    Quite amazing stat from the new ABC/Washington Post poll.

    Voting early/mail 58% Biden leads 70% to 26% in that group.

    Election Day 40% Trump leads 64% to 32%

    In the overall poll Biden leads 54% to 42%

    Does anyone have an estimate of vote shares counted on election night as opposed to cast on election day?
  • Options
    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    IanB2 said:

    Rawnsley: "We are heading into what threatens to be a bleak winter, not with a spirit of national unity but with divisions on stark display. Between north and south. Between young and old. Between lives and livelihoods. Between those (a shrivelling band) who still invest faith in Mr Johnson and those (a now much larger group) who don’t. Between government and opposition. Between scientist and scientist. Between Westminster and local government. Between cabinet member and cabinet member. And between prime minister and his own party."

    "The tide of infection is swelling again and the government still has not built sea walls anything like capable of holding it back. At the heart of that failure is the lack of an adequate regime for testing, tracing and isolating. That, along with all the other blunders, has cost the government trust, credibility and authority."

    "This weekend’s mess of cabinet wrangling, prime ministerial indecision and muddled messaging is over the plan to split England into three tiers, with differing severities of restriction depending on the region. This scheme leaked days ago, but it still has not been officially launched because the cabinet is split."

    “Boris is getting into a perfect storm,” remarks one senior Tory.

    "The big concern is that decision-making is being distorted by Number 10’s party management problems and that will result in bad outcomes. Several independent sources tell me the process has become polluted by Mr Johnson’s fright of revolt by the Tory right. There is now no obvious decision that Mr Johnson can take that will keep all of his party happy, arrest the resurgence of the virus and reunify the country. Whatever he does now, there will be no consensus behind it."

    Andrew Rawnsley, the head boy at his minor public school, Cambridge .... the rest of the trajectory writes itself.

    Does he still have the poster for the boyband with lead singer Tony Blair up in his bedroom ?

    I note the article consists entirely of unattributed briefings. As does almost every other article Rawnsley has ever written since his great idol fell.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,989
    Alistair said:

    The Progress Scot poll is out (they ask a weird 1-10 how Unionist/Independencey are you question)

    https://twitter.com/progressscot/status/1315185527583322112?s=19

    So just 28% of Scots fully support Scotland becoming an independent nation on that poll when you read the detail rather than the nationalist propoganda
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274

    Lisa Nandy struggling on Marr

    How, say?
    Marr called her out for not voting against these measures while condemning them

    She struggled during the interview as much as many other politicians, principally due to the complexity of the subject
    Its not the subject so much as their interests. Leading politicians' - both government and opposition - heads are so full of personal interest, party political interest, factional interest, how things will play with voters and the media - that none of them are sitting down to map out a steady and potentially optimum path for the country.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,977
    Scott_xP said:
    Couldn't see the shaft of light from heaven illuminating him, although obviously it has.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,921

    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    An imaginative defence from Ms Ferrier, now blaming the virus itself for making her act “out of character”

    Off topic

    Genius from Nippy. Ferrier has been chucked out of the party and encouraged to apply to the Chiltern Hundreds. She won't go! Once all this Covid nonsense has subsided, she can quietly return to the fold under the cover of darkness.
    SNP are not like the Tories, her tea is out from SNP perspective but looks like she is going to stick it out and get paid till 2024 and pick up the expenses, pension etc. She could join the Tories and no-one would notice the difference, would be among friends.
    Could get a recall petition. Maybe a tad difficult to organise while under lockdown, but by no means impossible.

    And Good Morning to everyone.
    Morning OKC, what amazes me is the amount of people who are stupid and ignorant enough to think Sturgeon can sack Ferrier. The UK really is full of thick uneducated people, most depressing.
  • Options
    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited October 2020

    IanB2 said:

    Rawnsley: "We are heading into what threatens to be a bleak winter, not with a spirit of national unity but with divisions on stark display. Between north and south. Between young and old. Between lives and livelihoods. Between those (a shrivelling band) who still invest faith in Mr Johnson and those (a now much larger group) who don’t. Between government and opposition. Between scientist and scientist. Between Westminster and local government. Between cabinet member and cabinet member. And between prime minister and his own party."

    "The tide of infection is swelling again and the government still has not built sea walls anything like capable of holding it back. At the heart of that failure is the lack of an adequate regime for testing, tracing and isolating. That, along with all the other blunders, has cost the government trust, credibility and authority."

    "This weekend’s mess of cabinet wrangling, prime ministerial indecision and muddled messaging is over the plan to split England into three tiers, with differing severities of restriction depending on the region. This scheme leaked days ago, but it still has not been officially launched because the cabinet is split."

    “Boris is getting into a perfect storm,” remarks one senior Tory.

    "The big concern is that decision-making is being distorted by Number 10’s party management problems and that will result in bad outcomes. Several independent sources tell me the process has become polluted by Mr Johnson’s fright of revolt by the Tory right. There is now no obvious decision that Mr Johnson can take that will keep all of his party happy, arrest the resurgence of the virus and reunify the country. Whatever he does now, there will be no consensus behind it."

    Andrew Rawnsley, the head boy at his minor public school, Cambridge .... the rest of the trajectory writes itself.

    Does he still have the poster for the boyband with lead singer Tony Blair up in his bedroom ?

    I note the article consists entirely of unattributed briefings. As does almost every other article Rawnsley has ever written since his great idol fell.
    Indeed. What could possibly be more divisive for the nation than his shitty 'journalism'?
  • Options
    HYUFD said:
    And this is where many conservative mps are not in step with the public and where, ironically, Boris is
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274

    IanB2 said:

    Rawnsley: "We are heading into what threatens to be a bleak winter, not with a spirit of national unity but with divisions on stark display. Between north and south. Between young and old. Between lives and livelihoods. Between those (a shrivelling band) who still invest faith in Mr Johnson and those (a now much larger group) who don’t. Between government and opposition. Between scientist and scientist. Between Westminster and local government. Between cabinet member and cabinet member. And between prime minister and his own party."

    "The tide of infection is swelling again and the government still has not built sea walls anything like capable of holding it back. At the heart of that failure is the lack of an adequate regime for testing, tracing and isolating. That, along with all the other blunders, has cost the government trust, credibility and authority."

    "This weekend’s mess of cabinet wrangling, prime ministerial indecision and muddled messaging is over the plan to split England into three tiers, with differing severities of restriction depending on the region. This scheme leaked days ago, but it still has not been officially launched because the cabinet is split."

    “Boris is getting into a perfect storm,” remarks one senior Tory.

    "The big concern is that decision-making is being distorted by Number 10’s party management problems and that will result in bad outcomes. Several independent sources tell me the process has become polluted by Mr Johnson’s fright of revolt by the Tory right. There is now no obvious decision that Mr Johnson can take that will keep all of his party happy, arrest the resurgence of the virus and reunify the country. Whatever he does now, there will be no consensus behind it."

    Andrew Rawnsley, the head boy at his minor public school, Cambridge .... the rest of the trajectory writes itself.

    Does he still have the poster for the boyband with lead singer Tony Blair up in his bedroom ?

    I note the article consists entirely of unattributed briefings. As does almost every other article Rawnsley has ever written since his great idol fell.
    Someone who senior politicians trust and speak to off the record regularly reports their real opinions to the rest of us, and that's of no value?
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,921
    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_xP said:
    That's like literally the entire argument that Salmondistas have made. The SNP should not have investigated the allegations.
    Is there a prescriptive period on collusion? She seems to have been more than content to do so whilst he was leader and she was the loyal deputy.

    Even by Scottish standards it is truly astonishing that her husband is still in post. Its almost as if she needs him to cover her back for her.
    Hard to see how they can survive , but they are going to keep filling their boots and brass neck it for as long as possible it seems.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,651
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:
    She looked very shifty in that interview with Sophy
    she has been lying through her teeth on it , she is up to her neck in the plot with the Head of Civil service and associated partners, can only be a matter of time as the details are unravelling and lies are getting harder and harder to justify.
    If she does go, who do you think will replace her?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725

    Are we expecting a vacancy on the Democrat side? Assuming Biden wins next month, even if he serves a full term, surely VP Harris will inherit the top slot. Though as the header implies, Mayor Pete might make sense as a trading bet.

    I cannot see them wanting to miss out on having a female candidate again. Mayor Pete thrust himself onto the scene very effectively and now has time to wait.
  • Options
    IanB2 said:

    Lisa Nandy struggling on Marr

    How, say?
    Marr called her out for not voting against these measures while condemning them

    She struggled during the interview as much as many other politicians, principally due to the complexity of the subject
    Its not the subject so much as their interests. Leading politicians' - both government and opposition - heads are so full of personal interest, party political interest, factional interest, how things will play with voters and the media - that none of them are sitting down to map out a steady and potentially optimum path for the country.
    I agree 100%
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,977
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    An imaginative defence from Ms Ferrier, now blaming the virus itself for making her act “out of character”

    Off topic

    Genius from Nippy. Ferrier has been chucked out of the party and encouraged to apply to the Chiltern Hundreds. She won't go! Once all this Covid nonsense has subsided, she can quietly return to the fold under the cover of darkness.
    SNP are not like the Tories, her tea is out from SNP perspective but looks like she is going to stick it out and get paid till 2024 and pick up the expenses, pension etc. She could join the Tories and no-one would notice the difference, would be among friends.
    Could get a recall petition. Maybe a tad difficult to organise while under lockdown, but by no means impossible.

    And Good Morning to everyone.
    Morning OKC, what amazes me is the amount of people who are stupid and ignorant enough to think Sturgeon can sack Ferrier. The UK really is full of thick uneducated people, most depressing.
    Indeed; Blackford can withdraw the whip, and I suppose she could be expelled from the SNP, but that presumably would involve some right of appeal.
    And in any event that wouldn't be down to 'just Sturgeon'. Indeed, I would expect it wasn't 'just' any individual.
    As you rightly point out Sturgeon is nothing to do with Westminster.
  • Options
    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Rawnsley: "We are heading into what threatens to be a bleak winter, not with a spirit of national unity but with divisions on stark display. Between north and south. Between young and old. Between lives and livelihoods. Between those (a shrivelling band) who still invest faith in Mr Johnson and those (a now much larger group) who don’t. Between government and opposition. Between scientist and scientist. Between Westminster and local government. Between cabinet member and cabinet member. And between prime minister and his own party."

    "The tide of infection is swelling again and the government still has not built sea walls anything like capable of holding it back. At the heart of that failure is the lack of an adequate regime for testing, tracing and isolating. That, along with all the other blunders, has cost the government trust, credibility and authority."

    "This weekend’s mess of cabinet wrangling, prime ministerial indecision and muddled messaging is over the plan to split England into three tiers, with differing severities of restriction depending on the region. This scheme leaked days ago, but it still has not been officially launched because the cabinet is split."

    “Boris is getting into a perfect storm,” remarks one senior Tory.

    "The big concern is that decision-making is being distorted by Number 10’s party management problems and that will result in bad outcomes. Several independent sources tell me the process has become polluted by Mr Johnson’s fright of revolt by the Tory right. There is now no obvious decision that Mr Johnson can take that will keep all of his party happy, arrest the resurgence of the virus and reunify the country. Whatever he does now, there will be no consensus behind it."

    Andrew Rawnsley, the head boy at his minor public school, Cambridge .... the rest of the trajectory writes itself.

    Does he still have the poster for the boyband with lead singer Tony Blair up in his bedroom ?

    I note the article consists entirely of unattributed briefings. As does almost every other article Rawnsley has ever written since his great idol fell.
    Someone who senior politicians trust and speak to off the record regularly reports their real opinions to the rest of us, and that's of no value?
    Not really.

    Did Andrew dictate that sentence to you?
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,921

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    An imaginative defence from Ms Ferrier, now blaming the virus itself for making her act “out of character”

    Off topic

    Genius from Nippy. Ferrier has been chucked out of the party and encouraged to apply to the Chiltern Hundreds. She won't go! Once all this Covid nonsense has subsided, she can quietly return to the fold under the cover of darkness.
    SNP are not like the Tories, her tea is out from SNP perspective but looks like she is going to stick it out and get paid till 2024 and pick up the expenses, pension etc. She could join the Tories and no-one would notice the difference, would be among friends.
    PS; Sturgeon will be needing a job soon herself.
    I am not sure what you mean by your P.S. statement.

    Ferrier would be also better advised to STFU and not speak to the Scottish Sun.
    Sturgeon is in the crap with her failed attempt to put Salmond out of politics. The lies and cover ups are unravelling, her husband's involvement along with the unionist civil servants etc are all coming home to roost.
    Ferrier should indeed stay quiet , given she is 60 , sticking it out for next 4 years will take her close to retirement and be worth in region of half a million, nice job being an MP, any other profession you would be out on your ear.
    I see the attraction of Nicola. Nicola calmly attracts voters not necessarily of the independence faith.

    I don't see Salmond as the political titan he see himself to be. He is a Poundland Trotskyist Trump or Johnson. If anyone can derail the SNP he is your man.
    They tried to have him locked up for nothing, I hope they get what they deserve, though they are more likely to make more millions instead.
    I followed the case, and I was surprised by the verdict.

    I personally have no desire to see Salmond lynched. At the very least, however, he appeared to be unacceptably predatory. He displayed the same behaviour towards women we rightly call out from Trump and Johnson.
    He was cleared on all accounts and the complainants were shown to be either liars or had been egged into making complaints. fact he was snogging a few people at work is not a crime. They were no 20 year olds , all were very senior politicians or civil servants. Retrospective changing of rules, coaching of complainants , whatsapp groups colluding on stories and worse do not look very good. Lots to still come out and the defense witnesses were not reported , jury knew they were being lied to and reached the verdict accordingly.
    Typical establishment stitch up and he is damned regardless of outcome as the tame media had him sentenced before it got to court. Your post proves it , you know nothing of the details that were really discussed in court but have him labelled. Appearances are not always what they seem.
    The first part of your first paragraph is almost the defence that " they were wearing a short skirt so they were asking for it". I would feel very uncomfortable with excusing Salmond's behaviour, even if everything else you say turns out to be true.
    I am not commenting on his behaviour as I have no idea what he was like or up to. However I find it hard to believe 9 very senior politicians and civil servants were cowed into something and waited years and years to say anything, none were low level people who would be scared to speak out. As I said you have him as guilty whereas a jury of his peers with the real facts showed he was innocent of all charges. You should not depend on the daily Mail for your facts.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    IanB2 said:

    Rawnsley: "We are heading into what threatens to be a bleak winter, not with a spirit of national unity but with divisions on stark display. Between north and south. Between young and old. Between lives and livelihoods. Between those (a shrivelling band) who still invest faith in Mr Johnson and those (a now much larger group) who don’t. Between government and opposition. Between scientist and scientist. Between Westminster and local government. Between cabinet member and cabinet member. And between prime minister and his own party."

    "The tide of infection is swelling again and the government still has not built sea walls anything like capable of holding it back. At the heart of that failure is the lack of an adequate regime for testing, tracing and isolating. That, along with all the other blunders, has cost the government trust, credibility and authority."

    "This weekend’s mess of cabinet wrangling, prime ministerial indecision and muddled messaging is over the plan to split England into three tiers, with differing severities of restriction depending on the region. This scheme leaked days ago, but it still has not been officially launched because the cabinet is split."

    “Boris is getting into a perfect storm,” remarks one senior Tory.

    "The big concern is that decision-making is being distorted by Number 10’s party management problems and that will result in bad outcomes. Several independent sources tell me the process has become polluted by Mr Johnson’s fright of revolt by the Tory right. There is now no obvious decision that Mr Johnson can take that will keep all of his party happy, arrest the resurgence of the virus and reunify the country. Whatever he does now, there will be no consensus behind it."

    A long piece which could have been left at just the final sentence. Or final two to be safe.

    Pretty much everyone expected a second wave and the places that had a bad first wave, like us and Spain, look like having a bad second one too. But that won't help the government bluster through.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,333

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I think Shadsy knows what he's doing.

    If Biden loses then Mayor Pete is better than 66/1 but he still has a total lack of experience, and there's plenty of time for a competitor to show up.

    If Biden wins then he presumably gets an administration job where he gets to shine but he has to somehow get past Kamala. She's the presumptive successor to Biden but Pete can't really run against Biden's record (unless he picks a fight and strategically flounces) so it's not at all clear how he dislodges her. And this all assumes Biden steps aside: He's been running for president for decades, I doubt he'd give it up just because he's old.

    I don’t think Harris is a cert for the Dem nomination in 2024 unless she is President at the time. She isn’t the most popular of candidates, as we saw in the primaries.
    She's not a dead cert, but if she wants to represent the Biden Continuation lane I think she'll be hard to shift from it. The obvious way to run against her is from the left, which is very much where Mayor Pete isn't.
    Fair point. But the ongoing popularity of Sanders doesn’t say much for the vitality of the younger members of the American left wing.
    There's AOC for starters, but alternatively any ambitious Dem from outside the administration could run to the left of the (hypothetical) Biden administration, it won't be hard to find things that are popular among Dems that Biden/Harris didn't get done.
    Definitely. There are plenty of vaguely centre-left Democrats who would be up for seeming more left if it might get them the nomination. And I agree with Edmund's rationale for AOC to have a go. It'd be fun, too, and no more implausible than Bernie, who isn't a Democrat, is a socialist, honeymooned in the USSR, and nearly won.

    Is there is a poll on how Sanders would be doing vs Trump right now? Pretty close, I suspect.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,262
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_xP said:
    That's like literally the entire argument that Salmondistas have made. The SNP should not have investigated the allegations.
    Is there a prescriptive period on collusion? She seems to have been more than content to do so whilst he was leader and she was the loyal deputy.

    Even by Scottish standards it is truly astonishing that her husband is still in post. Its almost as if she needs him to cover her back for her.
    Hard to see how they can survive , but they are going to keep filling their boots and brass neck it for as long as possible it seems.
    If he goes, and he surely must, her position will be much less comfortable than it has been to date. He is where this battle between the Sturgeon acolytes and the Salmondistas will be fought, not Edinburgh Central. Its not great territory for her to fight on.
  • Options
    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    Scott_xP said:
    Oh dear ... naive faith in the supernatural power of politicians.

    We should have used the months from mid spring to August to move towards herd immunity.

    Tegnell now thinks Sweden still isn't there but at least they have a policy to help them live with the virus indefinitely. So apparently does Japan. (Neither country has locked people up.)

    The UK will be up shit creek without a paddle by late winter 2021 when it's clearer to mug politicians that a properly-tested, i.e. 'safe' vaccine is still at least 18 months away. More likely, two years

    https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/10/10/a-sars-cov2-vaccine-dont-hold-your-breath/#comments
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Rawnsley: "We are heading into what threatens to be a bleak winter, not with a spirit of national unity but with divisions on stark display. Between north and south. Between young and old. Between lives and livelihoods. Between those (a shrivelling band) who still invest faith in Mr Johnson and those (a now much larger group) who don’t. Between government and opposition. Between scientist and scientist. Between Westminster and local government. Between cabinet member and cabinet member. And between prime minister and his own party."

    "The tide of infection is swelling again and the government still has not built sea walls anything like capable of holding it back. At the heart of that failure is the lack of an adequate regime for testing, tracing and isolating. That, along with all the other blunders, has cost the government trust, credibility and authority."

    "This weekend’s mess of cabinet wrangling, prime ministerial indecision and muddled messaging is over the plan to split England into three tiers, with differing severities of restriction depending on the region. This scheme leaked days ago, but it still has not been officially launched because the cabinet is split."

    “Boris is getting into a perfect storm,” remarks one senior Tory.

    "The big concern is that decision-making is being distorted by Number 10’s party management problems and that will result in bad outcomes. Several independent sources tell me the process has become polluted by Mr Johnson’s fright of revolt by the Tory right. There is now no obvious decision that Mr Johnson can take that will keep all of his party happy, arrest the resurgence of the virus and reunify the country. Whatever he does now, there will be no consensus behind it."

    Andrew Rawnsley, the head boy at his minor public school, Cambridge .... the rest of the trajectory writes itself.

    Does he still have the poster for the boyband with lead singer Tony Blair up in his bedroom ?

    I note the article consists entirely of unattributed briefings. As does almost every other article Rawnsley has ever written since his great idol fell.
    Someone who senior politicians trust and speak to off the record regularly reports their real opinions to the rest of us, and that's of no value?
    Not really.

    Did Andrew dictate that sentence to you?
    The detail of the three-tier English lockdown heading our way remains under wraps because Cabinet members are fighting tooth and nail over it. No Cabinet member is going to admit that on the record.

    I'd rather have it put into the public domain so that we can assess the situation for ourselves, than simply and rather childishly slag off the reporter.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,921
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    The Progress Scot poll is out (they ask a weird 1-10 how Unionist/Independencey are you question)

    https://twitter.com/progressscot/status/1315185527583322112?s=19

    So just 28% of Scots fully support Scotland becoming an independent nation on that poll when you read the detail rather than the nationalist propoganda
    Even by your standards that is a completely barking reading of the facts
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,921
    Foxy said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    An imaginative defence from Ms Ferrier, now blaming the virus itself for making her act “out of character”

    Off topic

    Genius from Nippy. Ferrier has been chucked out of the party and encouraged to apply to the Chiltern Hundreds. She won't go! Once all this Covid nonsense has subsided, she can quietly return to the fold under the cover of darkness.
    SNP are not like the Tories, her tea is out from SNP perspective but looks like she is going to stick it out and get paid till 2024 and pick up the expenses, pension etc. She could join the Tories and no-one would notice the difference, would be among friends.
    PS; Sturgeon will be needing a job soon herself.
    I am not sure what you mean by your P.S. statement.

    Ferrier would be also better advised to STFU and not speak to the Scottish Sun.
    Sturgeon is in the crap with her failed attempt to put Salmond out of politics. The lies and cover ups are unravelling, her husband's involvement along with the unionist civil servants etc are all coming home to roost.
    Ferrier should indeed stay quiet , given she is 60 , sticking it out for next 4 years will take her close to retirement and be worth in region of half a million, nice job being an MP, any other profession you would be out on your ear.
    I see the attraction of Nicola. Nicola calmly attracts voters not necessarily of the independence faith.

    I don't see Salmond as the political titan he see himself to be. He is a Poundland Trotskyist Trump or Johnson. If anyone can derail the SNP he is your man.
    They tried to have him locked up for nothing, I hope they get what they deserve, though they are more likely to make more millions instead.
    I followed the case, and I was surprised by the verdict.

    I personally have no desire to see Salmond lynched. At the very least, however, he appeared to be unacceptably predatory. He displayed the same behaviour towards women we rightly call out from Trump and Johnson.
    He was cleared on all accounts and the complainants were shown to be either liars or had been egged into making complaints. fact he was snogging a few people at work is not a crime. They were no 20 year olds , all were very senior politicians or civil servants. Retrospective changing of rules, coaching of complainants , whatsapp groups colluding on stories and worse do not look very good. Lots to still come out and the defense witnesses were not reported , jury knew they were being lied to and reached the verdict accordingly.
    Typical establishment stitch up and he is damned regardless of outcome as the tame media had him sentenced before it got to court. Your post proves it , you know nothing of the details that were really discussed in court but have him labelled. Appearances are not always what they seem.
    I have no particular axe to grind on the Salmond/Sturgeon feud, but it does look to me that we may wind up with Salmond doing enough to bring down Sturgeon. It would be ironic indeed if Salmond brought down Scottish Independence with her too. It is quite possible that he winds up maintaining the Union as a result.
    Sturgeon has no intention of having a referendum.
  • Options
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Rawnsley: "We are heading into what threatens to be a bleak winter, not with a spirit of national unity but with divisions on stark display. Between north and south. Between young and old. Between lives and livelihoods. Between those (a shrivelling band) who still invest faith in Mr Johnson and those (a now much larger group) who don’t. Between government and opposition. Between scientist and scientist. Between Westminster and local government. Between cabinet member and cabinet member. And between prime minister and his own party."

    "The tide of infection is swelling again and the government still has not built sea walls anything like capable of holding it back. At the heart of that failure is the lack of an adequate regime for testing, tracing and isolating. That, along with all the other blunders, has cost the government trust, credibility and authority."

    "This weekend’s mess of cabinet wrangling, prime ministerial indecision and muddled messaging is over the plan to split England into three tiers, with differing severities of restriction depending on the region. This scheme leaked days ago, but it still has not been officially launched because the cabinet is split."

    “Boris is getting into a perfect storm,” remarks one senior Tory.

    "The big concern is that decision-making is being distorted by Number 10’s party management problems and that will result in bad outcomes. Several independent sources tell me the process has become polluted by Mr Johnson’s fright of revolt by the Tory right. There is now no obvious decision that Mr Johnson can take that will keep all of his party happy, arrest the resurgence of the virus and reunify the country. Whatever he does now, there will be no consensus behind it."

    Andrew Rawnsley, the head boy at his minor public school, Cambridge .... the rest of the trajectory writes itself.

    Does he still have the poster for the boyband with lead singer Tony Blair up in his bedroom ?

    I note the article consists entirely of unattributed briefings. As does almost every other article Rawnsley has ever written since his great idol fell.
    Someone who senior politicians trust and speak to off the record regularly reports their real opinions to the rest of us, and that's of no value?
    Is there anything to stop a random journalist just consistently making up quotes from sources? I assume very little?
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Rawnsley: "We are heading into what threatens to be a bleak winter, not with a spirit of national unity but with divisions on stark display. Between north and south. Between young and old. Between lives and livelihoods. Between those (a shrivelling band) who still invest faith in Mr Johnson and those (a now much larger group) who don’t. Between government and opposition. Between scientist and scientist. Between Westminster and local government. Between cabinet member and cabinet member. And between prime minister and his own party."

    "The tide of infection is swelling again and the government still has not built sea walls anything like capable of holding it back. At the heart of that failure is the lack of an adequate regime for testing, tracing and isolating. That, along with all the other blunders, has cost the government trust, credibility and authority."

    "This weekend’s mess of cabinet wrangling, prime ministerial indecision and muddled messaging is over the plan to split England into three tiers, with differing severities of restriction depending on the region. This scheme leaked days ago, but it still has not been officially launched because the cabinet is split."

    “Boris is getting into a perfect storm,” remarks one senior Tory.

    "The big concern is that decision-making is being distorted by Number 10’s party management problems and that will result in bad outcomes. Several independent sources tell me the process has become polluted by Mr Johnson’s fright of revolt by the Tory right. There is now no obvious decision that Mr Johnson can take that will keep all of his party happy, arrest the resurgence of the virus and reunify the country. Whatever he does now, there will be no consensus behind it."

    A long piece which could have been left at just the final sentence. Or final two to be safe.

    Pretty much everyone expected a second wave and the places that had a bad first wave, like us and Spain, look like having a bad second one too. But that won't help the government bluster through.
    Sky breaking

    Ireland reporting more than 1,000 new cases and 3 deaths, highest since April
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,973
    edited October 2020
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    There is now no obvious decision that Mr Johnson can take that will keep all of his party happy, arrest the resurgence of the virus and reunify the country. Whatever he does now, there will be no consensus behind it."

    A long piece which could have been left at just the final sentence. Or final two to be safe.

    Pretty much everyone expected a second wave and the places that had a bad first wave, like us and Spain, look like having a bad second one too. But that won't help the government bluster through.
    Boris lost all moral authority when Cummings wasn't told to resign and reluctantly allowed to stay (and I use that approach as that is the approach anyone who was actually clever and devious would have used to fix the nightmare that was that screw up).

    So we enter wave 2 with a track and trace system that isn't fast enough alongside a testing system that doesn't have enough capacity and zero excess capacity and while both these items were probably unavoidable Boris will cop the blame because he can't blame anyone else.

    Meanwhile Boris is distracted by and using Brexit as a distraction.

    The end result is that Boris is going to eventually be toast as he has zero chances of recovering from the coming crises but he will probably remain in power destroying his long term reputation day by day.

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,989

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I think Shadsy knows what he's doing.

    If Biden loses then Mayor Pete is better than 66/1 but he still has a total lack of experience, and there's plenty of time for a competitor to show up.

    If Biden wins then he presumably gets an administration job where he gets to shine but he has to somehow get past Kamala. She's the presumptive successor to Biden but Pete can't really run against Biden's record (unless he picks a fight and strategically flounces) so it's not at all clear how he dislodges her. And this all assumes Biden steps aside: He's been running for president for decades, I doubt he'd give it up just because he's old.

    I don’t think Harris is a cert for the Dem nomination in 2024 unless she is President at the time. She isn’t the most popular of candidates, as we saw in the primaries.
    She's not a dead cert, but if she wants to represent the Biden Continuation lane I think she'll be hard to shift from it. The obvious way to run against her is from the left, which is very much where Mayor Pete isn't.
    Fair point. But the ongoing popularity of Sanders doesn’t say much for the vitality of the younger members of the American left wing.
    There's AOC for starters, but alternatively any ambitious Dem from outside the administration could run to the left of the (hypothetical) Biden administration, it won't be hard to find things that are popular among Dems that Biden/Harris didn't get done.
    Definitely. There are plenty of vaguely centre-left Democrats who would be up for seeming more left if it might get them the nomination. And I agree with Edmund's rationale for AOC to have a go. It'd be fun, too, and no more implausible than Bernie, who isn't a Democrat, is a socialist, honeymooned in the USSR, and nearly won.

    Is there is a poll on how Sanders would be doing vs Trump right now? Pretty close, I suspect.
    A Morning Consult poll from April had Sanders 45% and Trump 43% but Biden 46% and Trump 42%.

    So Sanders would likely be doing worse than Biden but still competitive

    https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    edited October 2020
    With Americans only officially starting to pick their presidential candidates a year or so out ("only!"), I wonder if that could slow up any coherent response to Trump should he lose.

    I mean, sure, there are midterms and various other events, to give indications, but the shell we say more traditional republican leadership may get a confused picture as to whether the base wants Trump 2.0 or if they will do a Labour in picking Starmer, until they get to the primaries again. After all, they seemed surprised he got it in the first place .
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,921

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:
    She looked very shifty in that interview with Sophy
    she has been lying through her teeth on it , she is up to her neck in the plot with the Head of Civil service and associated partners, can only be a matter of time as the details are unravelling and lies are getting harder and harder to justify.
    If she does go, who do you think will replace her?
    No idea , will be like ferrets in a sack. I think a clearout at the top is needed, too many weak yes persons and they have packed the NEC with ex labour freeloaders and career politicians. They are not interested in independence , just their own pet agendas and pockets. For me the only ones I see with talent are Cherry and Whitford , I like Forbes but nowhere near enough experience.
    Big clear out needed.
    Bit like Brown did with Labour in making sure competition was nobbled or got rid of. The conference could be interesting as the natives are very restless.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,989
    kle4 said:

    With Americans only officially starting to pick their presidential candidates a year or so out ("only!"), I wonder if that could slow up any coherent response to Trump should he lose.

    I mean, sure, there are midterms and various other events, to give indications, but the shell we say more traditional republican leadership may get a confused picture as to whether the base wants Trump 2.0 or if they will do a Labour in picking Starmer.

    Starmer only became Labour leader after 4 consecutive Labour defeats not 1
  • Options
    So Stratton got the job because she’s friends with Cummings. I am shocked
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    Re Header. Subject to price, obviously, but I'm not looking past the obvious for WH2024. Glass ceiling finally shattered. Kamala Harris.
  • Options
    As this is a government by opinion poll we’ll be seeing another lockdown

    https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1315182698969923584
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,921
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_xP said:
    That's like literally the entire argument that Salmondistas have made. The SNP should not have investigated the allegations.
    Is there a prescriptive period on collusion? She seems to have been more than content to do so whilst he was leader and she was the loyal deputy.

    Even by Scottish standards it is truly astonishing that her husband is still in post. Its almost as if she needs him to cover her back for her.
    Hard to see how they can survive , but they are going to keep filling their boots and brass neck it for as long as possible it seems.
    If he goes, and he surely must, her position will be much less comfortable than it has been to date. He is where this battle between the Sturgeon acolytes and the Salmondistas will be fought, not Edinburgh Central. Its not great territory for her to fight on.
    How he has brazened it out till now is amazing and he has to be dead man walking. The other debacle where it seems certain she was economical with the truth is unravelling and will surely do for her as well.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    malcolmg said:

    Foxy said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    An imaginative defence from Ms Ferrier, now blaming the virus itself for making her act “out of character”

    Off topic

    Genius from Nippy. Ferrier has been chucked out of the party and encouraged to apply to the Chiltern Hundreds. She won't go! Once all this Covid nonsense has subsided, she can quietly return to the fold under the cover of darkness.
    SNP are not like the Tories, her tea is out from SNP perspective but looks like she is going to stick it out and get paid till 2024 and pick up the expenses, pension etc. She could join the Tories and no-one would notice the difference, would be among friends.
    PS; Sturgeon will be needing a job soon herself.
    I am not sure what you mean by your P.S. statement.

    Ferrier would be also better advised to STFU and not speak to the Scottish Sun.
    Sturgeon is in the crap with her failed attempt to put Salmond out of politics. The lies and cover ups are unravelling, her husband's involvement along with the unionist civil servants etc are all coming home to roost.
    Ferrier should indeed stay quiet , given she is 60 , sticking it out for next 4 years will take her close to retirement and be worth in region of half a million, nice job being an MP, any other profession you would be out on your ear.
    I see the attraction of Nicola. Nicola calmly attracts voters not necessarily of the independence faith.

    I don't see Salmond as the political titan he see himself to be. He is a Poundland Trotskyist Trump or Johnson. If anyone can derail the SNP he is your man.
    They tried to have him locked up for nothing, I hope they get what they deserve, though they are more likely to make more millions instead.
    I followed the case, and I was surprised by the verdict.

    I personally have no desire to see Salmond lynched. At the very least, however, he appeared to be unacceptably predatory. He displayed the same behaviour towards women we rightly call out from Trump and Johnson.
    He was cleared on all accounts and the complainants were shown to be either liars or had been egged into making complaints. fact he was snogging a few people at work is not a crime. They were no 20 year olds , all were very senior politicians or civil servants. Retrospective changing of rules, coaching of complainants , whatsapp groups colluding on stories and worse do not look very good. Lots to still come out and the defense witnesses were not reported , jury knew they were being lied to and reached the verdict accordingly.
    Typical establishment stitch up and he is damned regardless of outcome as the tame media had him sentenced before it got to court. Your post proves it , you know nothing of the details that were really discussed in court but have him labelled. Appearances are not always what they seem.
    I have no particular axe to grind on the Salmond/Sturgeon feud, but it does look to me that we may wind up with Salmond doing enough to bring down Sturgeon. It would be ironic indeed if Salmond brought down Scottish Independence with her too. It is quite possible that he winds up maintaining the Union as a result.
    Sturgeon has no intention of having a referendum.
    Does she need one? Apparently support for it is growing day by day so it will happen at some point and probably win so no need to rush, just keep pressure on the UK government until they break .
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I think Shadsy knows what he's doing.

    If Biden loses then Mayor Pete is better than 66/1 but he still has a total lack of experience, and there's plenty of time for a competitor to show up.

    If Biden wins then he presumably gets an administration job where he gets to shine but he has to somehow get past Kamala. She's the presumptive successor to Biden but Pete can't really run against Biden's record (unless he picks a fight and strategically flounces) so it's not at all clear how he dislodges her. And this all assumes Biden steps aside: He's been running for president for decades, I doubt he'd give it up just because he's old.

    I don’t think Harris is a cert for the Dem nomination in 2024 unless she is President at the time. She isn’t the most popular of candidates, as we saw in the primaries.
    She's not a dead cert, but if she wants to represent the Biden Continuation lane I think she'll be hard to shift from it. The obvious way to run against her is from the left, which is very much where Mayor Pete isn't.
    Fair point. But the ongoing popularity of Sanders doesn’t say much for the vitality of the younger members of the American left wing.
    There's AOC for starters, but alternatively any ambitious Dem from outside the administration could run to the left of the (hypothetical) Biden administration, it won't be hard to find things that are popular among Dems that Biden/Harris didn't get done.
    Definitely. There are plenty of vaguely centre-left Democrats who would be up for seeming more left if it might get them the nomination. And I agree with Edmund's rationale for AOC to have a go. It'd be fun, too, and no more implausible than Bernie, who isn't a Democrat, is a socialist, honeymooned in the USSR, and nearly won.

    Is there is a poll on how Sanders would be doing vs Trump right now? Pretty close, I suspect.
    No landslide - as Biden is poised for - but I think Sanders would have beaten Trump.
  • Options
    @TSE Vanilla loading incredibly slowly on iPhone 11 Pro again.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,893

    Betting Post

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: backed Verstappen to win each way at 4.5 (4.6 with boost). I was somewhat tempted to just back him for the win outright. Looked very impressive in qualifying and the Red Bull's usually closer in race trim.

    Incidentally, happened to see the start time is apparently 1.10pm, an hour earlier than usual.

    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2020/10/germany-pre-race-2020.html

    I’m on Hulkenburg at 3 for a points finish, Hamilton 1.13 for points (for the 44th time in a row), Bottas 3 for the win from pole, and 1.31 on a safety car - all Betfair exchange.
  • Options

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh dear ... naive faith in the supernatural power of politicians.

    We should have used the months from mid spring to August to move towards herd immunity.

    Tegnell now thinks Sweden still isn't there but at least they have a policy to help them live with the virus indefinitely. So apparently does Japan. (Neither country has locked people up.)

    The UK will be up shit creek without a paddle by late winter 2021 when it's clearer to mug politicians that a properly-tested, i.e. 'safe' vaccine is still at least 18 months away. More likely, two years

    https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/10/10/a-sars-cov2-vaccine-dont-hold-your-breath/#comments
    Written by a GP who does not understand clinical trials. Contains errors of facts as well as errors of interpretation.

    Ignore.

    --AS
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    An imaginative defence from Ms Ferrier, now blaming the virus itself for making her act “out of character”

    Off topic

    Genius from Nippy. Ferrier has been chucked out of the party and encouraged to apply to the Chiltern Hundreds. She won't go! Once all this Covid nonsense has subsided, she can quietly return to the fold under the cover of darkness.
    SNP are not like the Tories, her tea is out from SNP perspective but looks like she is going to stick it out and get paid till 2024 and pick up the expenses, pension etc. She could join the Tories and no-one would notice the difference, would be among friends.
    PS; Sturgeon will be needing a job soon herself.
    I am not sure what you mean by your P.S. statement.

    Ferrier would be also better advised to STFU and not speak to the Scottish Sun.
    Sturgeon is in the crap with her failed attempt to put Salmond out of politics. The lies and cover ups are unravelling, her husband's involvement along with the unionist civil servants etc are all coming home to roost.
    Ferrier should indeed stay quiet , given she is 60 , sticking it out for next 4 years will take her close to retirement and be worth in region of half a million, nice job being an MP, any other profession you would be out on your ear.
    I see the attraction of Nicola. Nicola calmly attracts voters not necessarily of the independence faith.

    I don't see Salmond as the political titan he see himself to be. He is a Poundland Trotskyist Trump or Johnson. If anyone can derail the SNP he is your man.
    They tried to have him locked up for nothing, I hope they get what they deserve, though they are more likely to make more millions instead.
    I followed the case, and I was surprised by the verdict.

    I personally have no desire to see Salmond lynched. At the very least, however, he appeared to be unacceptably predatory. He displayed the same behaviour towards women we rightly call out from Trump and Johnson.
    He was cleared on all accounts and the complainants were shown to be either liars or had been egged into making complaints. fact he was snogging a few people at work is not a crime. They were no 20 year olds , all were very senior politicians or civil servants. Retrospective changing of rules, coaching of complainants , whatsapp groups colluding on stories and worse do not look very good. Lots to still come out and the defense witnesses were not reported , jury knew they were being lied to and reached the verdict accordingly.
    Typical establishment stitch up and he is damned regardless of outcome as the tame media had him sentenced before it got to court. Your post proves it , you know nothing of the details that were really discussed in court but have him labelled. Appearances are not always what they seem.
    The first part of your first paragraph is almost the defence that " they were wearing a short skirt so they were asking for it". I would feel very uncomfortable with excusing Salmond's behaviour, even if everything else you say turns out to be true.
    I am not commenting on his behaviour as I have no idea what he was like or up to. However I find it hard to believe 9 very senior politicians and civil servants were cowed into something and waited years and years to say anything, none were low level people who would be scared to speak out. As I said you have him as guilty whereas a jury of his peers with the real facts showed he was innocent of all charges. You should not depend on the daily Mail for your facts.
    Wasn't one of the charges not proven rather than not guilty? Though that people will of course assume that means guilty is a reason that's an odd option to have.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Extraordinary that with almost every country in Europe struggling with rising case numbers, with tensions between central and local control, public disquiet over liberty restrictions, majority public opinion support for tough measures etc. etc., media here are still trying to convince themselves that uniquely the UK government has got things wrong. Which proves that around 90% of the criticism is pure political point scoring - also the same as everywhere else.
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    So Stratton got the job because she’s friends with Cummings. I am shocked

    Does being friends with Cummings give automatic entry to the misfits and weirdos path?
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,284
    edited October 2020

    So Stratton got the job because she’s friends with Cummings. I am shocked

    Allegra Stratton got the post because she has succeeded as director of strategic communications for Rishi Sunak and has a first class c.v

    And apparently wants to do it

    And here's the thing, she will be very good at it
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    HYUFD said:
    I'd wondered about this. Is it really just the media whipping up a fringe view to object to, say, the North getting tougher restrictions while its higher there?
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Rawnsley: "We are heading into what threatens to be a bleak winter, not with a spirit of national unity but with divisions on stark display. Between north and south. Between young and old. Between lives and livelihoods. Between those (a shrivelling band) who still invest faith in Mr Johnson and those (a now much larger group) who don’t. Between government and opposition. Between scientist and scientist. Between Westminster and local government. Between cabinet member and cabinet member. And between prime minister and his own party."

    "The tide of infection is swelling again and the government still has not built sea walls anything like capable of holding it back. At the heart of that failure is the lack of an adequate regime for testing, tracing and isolating. That, along with all the other blunders, has cost the government trust, credibility and authority."

    "This weekend’s mess of cabinet wrangling, prime ministerial indecision and muddled messaging is over the plan to split England into three tiers, with differing severities of restriction depending on the region. This scheme leaked days ago, but it still has not been officially launched because the cabinet is split."

    “Boris is getting into a perfect storm,” remarks one senior Tory.

    "The big concern is that decision-making is being distorted by Number 10’s party management problems and that will result in bad outcomes. Several independent sources tell me the process has become polluted by Mr Johnson’s fright of revolt by the Tory right. There is now no obvious decision that Mr Johnson can take that will keep all of his party happy, arrest the resurgence of the virus and reunify the country. Whatever he does now, there will be no consensus behind it."

    A long piece which could have been left at just the final sentence. Or final two to be safe.

    Pretty much everyone expected a second wave and the places that had a bad first wave, like us and Spain, look like having a bad second one too. But that won't help the government bluster through.
    If you believe the figures then it looks like Spain has peaked whereas the UK is still on the rise. Since the original lockdown almost everywhere has kept the pubs and restaurants open with restrictions, the night life and live music industry is dead. The most notable difference seems to be that most areas don’t change the rules like their underpants and people know what they are. Still very early days but it’s looking like we won’t see the children at Christmas or anytime soon what with treatment cycles and quarantine requirements and a potential total ban on foreign travel into the UK. Just a note on 0.2% of spanish infections have come through Madrid airport!
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,208

    So Stratton got the job because she’s friends with Cummings. I am shocked

    Allegra Stratton got the post because she has succeeded as director of strategic communications for Rishi Sunak and has a first class c.v

    And apparently wants to do it

    And here's the thing, she will be very good at it
    Wants to do it seems to the key on this one.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    There is now no obvious decision that Mr Johnson can take that will keep all of his party happy, arrest the resurgence of the virus and reunify the country. Whatever he does now, there will be no consensus behind it."

    A long piece which could have been left at just the final sentence. Or final two to be safe.

    Pretty much everyone expected a second wave and the places that had a bad first wave, like us and Spain, look like having a bad second one too. But that won't help the government bluster through.
    Boris lost all moral authority when Cummings wasn't told to resign and reluctantly allowed to stay (and I use that approach as that is the approach anyone who was actually clever and devious would have used to fix the nightmare that was that screw up).

    So we enter wave 2 with a track and trace system that isn't fast enough alongside a testing system that doesn't have enough capacity and zero excess capacity and while both these items were probably unavoidable Boris will cop the blame because he can't blame anyone else.

    Meanwhile Boris is distracted by and using Brexit as a distraction.

    The end result is that Boris is going to eventually be toast as he has zero chances of recovering from the coming crises but he will probably remain in power destroying his long term reputation day by day.
    This is imo accurate and fair. Our response to coronavirus has lacked focus -

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/10/continual-local-lockdowns-answer-covid-control
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_xP said:
    That's like literally the entire argument that Salmondistas have made. The SNP should not have investigated the allegations.
    Is there a prescriptive period on collusion? She seems to have been more than content to do so whilst he was leader and she was the loyal deputy.

    Even by Scottish standards it is truly astonishing that her husband is still in post. Its almost as if she needs him to cover her back for her.
    Hard to see how they can survive , but they are going to keep filling their boots and brass neck it for as long as possible it seems.
    If he goes, and he surely must, her position will be much less comfortable than it has been to date. He is where this battle between the Sturgeon acolytes and the Salmondistas will be fought, not Edinburgh Central. Its not great territory for her to fight on.
    How he has brazened it out till now is amazing and he has to be dead man walking. The other debacle where it seems certain she was economical with the truth is unravelling and will surely do for her as well.
    What sort of reactions do you expect from them to distract people from it?
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,735
    edited October 2020
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    I'd wondered about this. Is it really just the media whipping up a fringe view to object to, say, the North getting tougher restrictions while its higher there?
    People generally want tighter restrictions on others and to keep their own job. Those views are not a good basis for fair or effective governance.
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    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    I'd wondered about this. Is it really just the media whipping up a fringe view to object to, say, the North getting tougher restrictions while its higher there?
    I actually believe the public are scared of covid and put health before wealth

    I do not know how you change that opinion
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725

    As this is a government by opinion poll we’ll be seeing another lockdown

    https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1315182698969923584

    A lockdown has been anticipated for quite some time, see things like that cartoon about as many local lockdowns as it takes.

    Frankly I'm not particularly concerned what sways them to action as much as the action itself. If a lockdown is the right option - phased or not - then it doesn't matter why.
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    So Stratton got the job because she’s friends with Cummings. I am shocked

    Allegra Stratton got the post because she has succeeded as director of strategic communications for Rishi Sunak and has a first class c.v

    And apparently wants to do it

    And here's the thing, she will be very good at it
    You think we will see good communication from the government in 2021? Or that it will be better than it has been in 2020 but still pretty poor?

    I think the first is an impossible task for any spin doctor or whatever her new role is called. The second should be easy to get to.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,164
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    An imaginative defence from Ms Ferrier, now blaming the virus itself for making her act “out of character”

    Off topic

    Genius from Nippy. Ferrier has been chucked out of the party and encouraged to apply to the Chiltern Hundreds. She won't go! Once all this Covid nonsense has subsided, she can quietly return to the fold under the cover of darkness.
    SNP are not like the Tories, her tea is out from SNP perspective but looks like she is going to stick it out and get paid till 2024 and pick up the expenses, pension etc. She could join the Tories and no-one would notice the difference, would be among friends.
    PS; Sturgeon will be needing a job soon herself.
    I am not sure what you mean by your P.S. statement.

    Ferrier would be also better advised to STFU and not speak to the Scottish Sun.
    Sturgeon is in the crap with her failed attempt to put Salmond out of politics. The lies and cover ups are unravelling, her husband's involvement along with the unionist civil servants etc are all coming home to roost.
    Ferrier should indeed stay quiet , given she is 60 , sticking it out for next 4 years will take her close to retirement and be worth in region of half a million, nice job being an MP, any other profession you would be out on your ear.
    I see the attraction of Nicola. Nicola calmly attracts voters not necessarily of the independence faith.

    I don't see Salmond as the political titan he see himself to be. He is a Poundland Trotskyist Trump or Johnson. If anyone can derail the SNP he is your man.
    They tried to have him locked up for nothing, I hope they get what they deserve, though they are more likely to make more millions instead.
    I followed the case, and I was surprised by the verdict.

    I personally have no desire to see Salmond lynched. At the very least, however, he appeared to be unacceptably predatory. He displayed the same behaviour towards women we rightly call out from Trump and Johnson.
    He was cleared on all accounts and the complainants were shown to be either liars or had been egged into making complaints. fact he was snogging a few people at work is not a crime. They were no 20 year olds , all were very senior politicians or civil servants. Retrospective changing of rules, coaching of complainants , whatsapp groups colluding on stories and worse do not look very good. Lots to still come out and the defense witnesses were not reported , jury knew they were being lied to and reached the verdict accordingly.
    Typical establishment stitch up and he is damned regardless of outcome as the tame media had him sentenced before it got to court. Your post proves it , you know nothing of the details that were really discussed in court but have him labelled. Appearances are not always what they seem.
    The first part of your first paragraph is almost the defence that " they were wearing a short skirt so they were asking for it". I would feel very uncomfortable with excusing Salmond's behaviour, even if everything else you say turns out to be true.
    I am not commenting on his behaviour as I have no idea what he was like or up to. However I find it hard to believe 9 very senior politicians and civil servants were cowed into something and waited years and years to say anything, none were low level people who would be scared to speak out. As I said you have him as guilty whereas a jury of his peers with the real facts showed he was innocent of all charges. You should not depend on the daily Mail for your facts.
    I would like to think I am slightly more sophisticated than someone who is reliant on the Daily Mail.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,208

    As this is a government by opinion poll we’ll be seeing another lockdown

    https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1315182698969923584

    It is too late to close the unis, sending them home will make things worse, at least until students have herd immunity.

    My nearest city Nottingham will probably go into the strictest lockdown on Monday even though all the + cases are in the three postcodes where there is massive student presence.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. Sandpit, I did consider the Hulkenberg points bet but he starts last and, whilst a good driver with a good car, he's going to take about a dozen laps to get up to speed, and that if he does a great job.

    It's far from impossible but the odds don't appeal to me.
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    So Stratton got the job because she’s friends with Cummings. I am shocked

    Allegra Stratton got the post because she has succeeded as director of strategic communications for Rishi Sunak and has a first class c.v

    And apparently wants to do it

    And here's the thing, she will be very good at it
    You think we will see good communication from the government in 2021? Or that it will be better than it has been in 2020 but still pretty poor?

    I think the first is an impossible task for any spin doctor or whatever her new role is called. The second should be easy to get to.
    I was surprised she took on the appointment but those that underestimate her may be in for a big surprise
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,913

    And here's the thing, she will be very good at it

    Remains to be seen.

    She is undoubtedly very talented, but rolling the turd that is this Government's record in glitter every day may be beyond even her skills.
  • Options

    As this is a government by opinion poll we’ll be seeing another lockdown

    https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1315182698969923584

    It is too late to close the unis, sending them home will make things worse, at least until students have herd immunity.

    My nearest city Nottingham will probably go into the strictest lockdown on Monday even though all the + cases are in the three postcodes where there is massive student presence.
    Yet another example of how pathetically we treat our young adults:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54486269

    And then we blame them.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    I'd wondered about this. Is it really just the media whipping up a fringe view to object to, say, the North getting tougher restrictions while its higher there?
    I actually believe the public are scared of covid and put health before wealth

    I do not know how you change that opinion
    It will change on its own as the latter bites more and more. That we don't yet have mass unemployment is one reason people still back such prioritisation. But more and more politicians, commentators, businesses and public will shift, as some already have.

    However, those that have shifted need to recognise where the public currently are, and stop pretending harsh measures, even if wrong and not scrutinised enough, are not presently what the country wants, though specificities may be disagreed upon.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,262
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:
    She looked very shifty in that interview with Sophy
    she has been lying through her teeth on it , she is up to her neck in the plot with the Head of Civil service and associated partners, can only be a matter of time as the details are unravelling and lies are getting harder and harder to justify.
    If she does go, who do you think will replace her?
    No idea , will be like ferrets in a sack. I think a clearout at the top is needed, too many weak yes persons and they have packed the NEC with ex labour freeloaders and career politicians. They are not interested in independence , just their own pet agendas and pockets. For me the only ones I see with talent are Cherry and Whitford , I like Forbes but nowhere near enough experience.
    Big clear out needed.
    Bit like Brown did with Labour in making sure competition was nobbled or got rid of. The conference could be interesting as the natives are very restless.
    Don't know much about Whitford but she is once again in the wrong Parliament to be of much use at present. I can see a real exodus from Westminster amongst the ambitious SNP MPs who must be panicking that a vacancy at the very top might arise while they are stuck down south.
    Cherry is the most obviously frustrated but Whitford, Blackford and Black are all likely to feel the same.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,164

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    I'd wondered about this. Is it really just the media whipping up a fringe view to object to, say, the North getting tougher restrictions while its higher there?
    I actually believe the public are scared of covid and put health before wealth

    I do not know how you change that opinion
    I am with you BigG. although there is much bravado on this site suggesting be we are wrong, despite opinion polling.
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    So Stratton got the job because she’s friends with Cummings. I am shocked

    Allegra Stratton got the post because she has succeeded as director of strategic communications for Rishi Sunak and has a first class c.v

    And apparently wants to do it

    And here's the thing, she will be very good at it
    You think we will see good communication from the government in 2021? Or that it will be better than it has been in 2020 but still pretty poor?

    I think the first is an impossible task for any spin doctor or whatever her new role is called. The second should be easy to get to.
    I was surprised she took on the appointment but those that underestimate her may be in for a big surprise
    I know nothing about her so not underestimating her at all. I have seen enough from Johnson to know that he doesnt want communications to be clear and accurate. He wants a mix of sunny optimism, bluster, culture wars, anti EU, low detail and as little scrutiny as he can get away with. It makes good government communication impossible to achieve.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    I'd wondered about this. Is it really just the media whipping up a fringe view to object to, say, the North getting tougher restrictions while its higher there?
    People generally want tighter restrictions on others and to keep their own job. Those views are not a good basis for fair or effective governance.
    I'm not saying simply following what people vaguely say they want is necessarily a good idea. But it is important to note if people are generally supportive when others are claiming on their behalf that they are not. The actual arguments may still run counter to what people claim they support, and should be followed if so, but we do need to at least know what they think as best we can.
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    So Stratton got the job because she’s friends with Cummings. I am shocked

    Allegra Stratton got the post because she has succeeded as director of strategic communications for Rishi Sunak and has a first class c.v

    And apparently wants to do it

    And here's the thing, she will be very good at it
    You think we will see good communication from the government in 2021? Or that it will be better than it has been in 2020 but still pretty poor?

    I think the first is an impossible task for any spin doctor or whatever her new role is called. The second should be easy to get to.
    I was surprised she took on the appointment but those that underestimate her may be in for a big surprise
    I know nothing about her so not underestimating her at all. I have seen enough from Johnson to know that he doesnt want communications to be clear and accurate. He wants a mix of sunny optimism, bluster, culture wars, anti EU, low detail and as little scrutiny as he can get away with. It makes good government communication impossible to achieve.
    She has an interesting history as outlined on Wikipedia
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    So Stratton got the job because she’s friends with Cummings. I am shocked

    Allegra Stratton got the post because she has succeeded as director of strategic communications for Rishi Sunak and has a first class c.v

    And apparently wants to do it

    And here's the thing, she will be very good at it
    You think we will see good communication from the government in 2021? Or that it will be better than it has been in 2020 but still pretty poor?

    I think the first is an impossible task for any spin doctor or whatever her new role is called. The second should be easy to get to.
    I was surprised she took on the appointment but those that underestimate her may be in for a big surprise
    I know nothing about her so not underestimating her at all. I have seen enough from Johnson to know that he doesnt want communications to be clear and accurate. He wants a mix of sunny optimism, bluster, culture wars, anti EU, low detail and as little scrutiny as he can get away with. It makes good government communication impossible to achieve.
    Why do they need a person such as this, they are in charge, they should communicate and face the questions. The Great Communicator is so good he needs a spokesperson or to put differently he needS to be removed from Communicating because he’s so good.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    The Progress Scot poll is out (they ask a weird 1-10 how Unionist/Independencey are you question)

    https://twitter.com/progressscot/status/1315185527583322112?s=19

    So just 28% of Scots fully support Scotland becoming an independent nation on that poll when you read the detail rather than the nationalist propoganda
    And just 28% fully support staying in the union.
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    nichomar said:

    So Stratton got the job because she’s friends with Cummings. I am shocked

    Allegra Stratton got the post because she has succeeded as director of strategic communications for Rishi Sunak and has a first class c.v

    And apparently wants to do it

    And here's the thing, she will be very good at it
    You think we will see good communication from the government in 2021? Or that it will be better than it has been in 2020 but still pretty poor?

    I think the first is an impossible task for any spin doctor or whatever her new role is called. The second should be easy to get to.
    I was surprised she took on the appointment but those that underestimate her may be in for a big surprise
    I know nothing about her so not underestimating her at all. I have seen enough from Johnson to know that he doesnt want communications to be clear and accurate. He wants a mix of sunny optimism, bluster, culture wars, anti EU, low detail and as little scrutiny as he can get away with. It makes good government communication impossible to achieve.
    Why do they need a person such as this, they are in charge, they should communicate and face the questions. The Great Communicator is so good he needs a spokesperson or to put differently he needS to be removed from Communicating because he’s so good.
    Every government needs good communicators and she has all the hallmarks of being a success

    The government opponents do seem very exercised by her appointment
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,208
    "Tory backbenchers tell me that they have given up trying to discuss these matters with Boris Johnson because he simply will not entertain the possibility that the Whitty approach might be flawed, or even susceptible to critical reservations. His commitment to lockdown as the only possible solution is, one said, “ideological”. "

    Janet Daley in Telegraph.
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    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    I'd wondered about this. Is it really just the media whipping up a fringe view to object to, say, the North getting tougher restrictions while its higher there?
    People generally want tighter restrictions on others and to keep their own job. Those views are not a good basis for fair or effective governance.
    I'm not saying simply following what people vaguely say they want is necessarily a good idea. But it is important to note if people are generally supportive when others are claiming on their behalf that they are not. The actual arguments may still run counter to what people claim they support, and should be followed if so, but we do need to at least know what they think as best we can.
    Yes it is fairly clear that people are generally in favour of more restrictions. What would be more telling is how many want to restrict activities that they have themselves participated in or benefit from:

    How many restaurant goers want to restrict restaurants?
    How many people who are travelling abroad want to restrict foreign travel?
    How many single people want social gatherings limited to two households?
    How many people using public transport for their job want to restrict public transport?
    How many people working in the hotel industry want to restrict hotel stays?

    It is trivially easy to support restrictions on the things others do, and wanting to keep the things that are important to you or your own job open. It is not surprising that is where most people are.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Is Stratton the one who did the piece about an unemployed mother living on benefits as a lifestyle choice but then it turned out she was working full time?
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,713

    "Tory backbenchers tell me that they have given up trying to discuss these matters with Boris Johnson because he simply will not entertain the possibility that the Whitty approach might be flawed, or even susceptible to critical reservations. His commitment to lockdown as the only possible solution is, one said, “ideological”. "

    Janet Daley in Telegraph.

    Well of course it's pig-headed to listen to a scientist when you could listen to an elected politician who is being badgered by his constituents.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,913

    Every government needs good communicators

    Yes, and in a Parliamentary democracy we expect them to be elected.

    That none of the current crop can communicate effectively is not in her favour
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    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    "Tory backbenchers tell me that they have given up trying to discuss these matters with Boris Johnson because he simply will not entertain the possibility that the Whitty approach might be flawed, or even susceptible to critical reservations. His commitment to lockdown as the only possible solution is, one said, “ideological”. "

    Janet Daley in Telegraph.

    How very dare he listen to the Chief Medical Officer for pandemic advice rather than the Member for Nether Bumbleton?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,574

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Rawnsley: "We are heading into what threatens to be a bleak winter, not with a spirit of national unity but with divisions on stark display. Between north and south. Between young and old. Between lives and livelihoods. Between those (a shrivelling band) who still invest faith in Mr Johnson and those (a now much larger group) who don’t. Between government and opposition. Between scientist and scientist. Between Westminster and local government. Between cabinet member and cabinet member. And between prime minister and his own party."

    "The tide of infection is swelling again and the government still has not built sea walls anything like capable of holding it back. At the heart of that failure is the lack of an adequate regime for testing, tracing and isolating. That, along with all the other blunders, has cost the government trust, credibility and authority."

    "This weekend’s mess of cabinet wrangling, prime ministerial indecision and muddled messaging is over the plan to split England into three tiers, with differing severities of restriction depending on the region. This scheme leaked days ago, but it still has not been officially launched because the cabinet is split."

    “Boris is getting into a perfect storm,” remarks one senior Tory.

    "The big concern is that decision-making is being distorted by Number 10’s party management problems and that will result in bad outcomes. Several independent sources tell me the process has become polluted by Mr Johnson’s fright of revolt by the Tory right. There is now no obvious decision that Mr Johnson can take that will keep all of his party happy, arrest the resurgence of the virus and reunify the country. Whatever he does now, there will be no consensus behind it."

    Andrew Rawnsley, the head boy at his minor public school, Cambridge .... the rest of the trajectory writes itself.

    Does he still have the poster for the boyband with lead singer Tony Blair up in his bedroom ?

    I note the article consists entirely of unattributed briefings. As does almost every other article Rawnsley has ever written since his great idol fell.
    Someone who senior politicians trust and speak to off the record regularly reports their real opinions to the rest of us, and that's of no value?
    Is there anything to stop a random journalist just consistently making up quotes from sources? I assume very little?
    Only if, like Boris, they get sacked ?
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    Scott_xP said:

    Every government needs good communicators

    Yes, and in a Parliamentary democracy we expect them to be elected.

    That none of the current crop can communicate effectively is not in her favour
    To communicate effectively she needs a coherent message she can deliver. The "govt" changing their minds every other day will not give her a lot to work with.

    Nonetheless, perhaps she can present total cr*p in a professional manner without the bumbling bluster we have become accustomed to....
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,913
    Alistair said:

    Is Stratton the one who did the piece about an unemployed mother living on benefits as a lifestyle choice but then it turned out she was working full time?

    Allegedly, yes
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,262
    Scott_xP said:
    Presumably at one of these meetings that she doesn't really remember.
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    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    nichomar said:

    So Stratton got the job because she’s friends with Cummings. I am shocked

    Allegra Stratton got the post because she has succeeded as director of strategic communications for Rishi Sunak and has a first class c.v

    And apparently wants to do it

    And here's the thing, she will be very good at it
    You think we will see good communication from the government in 2021? Or that it will be better than it has been in 2020 but still pretty poor?

    I think the first is an impossible task for any spin doctor or whatever her new role is called. The second should be easy to get to.
    I was surprised she took on the appointment but those that underestimate her may be in for a big surprise
    I know nothing about her so not underestimating her at all. I have seen enough from Johnson to know that he doesnt want communications to be clear and accurate. He wants a mix of sunny optimism, bluster, culture wars, anti EU, low detail and as little scrutiny as he can get away with. It makes good government communication impossible to achieve.
    Why do they need a person such as this, they are in charge, they should communicate and face the questions. The Great Communicator is so good he needs a spokesperson or to put differently he needS to be removed from Communicating because he’s so good.
    Every government needs good communicators and she has all the hallmarks of being a success

    The government opponents do seem very exercised by her appointment
    Because they know she's going to be bloody good at her job :smile:
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