Not sure Mrs B needed the mask to cuddle her husband at the end but I saw the same thing at the tube station tonight -- a masked couple locked in passionate embrace for several minutes until their cab arrived.
Well I got suckered by Trump again! I believed it when he said he wasn't going to prepare but he was beautifully prepared and full of aggression and life. He completely overwhelmed Biden at times but as the game went on it became increasingly clear it was a strategy to avoid substantive discussion. I think he overdid it in the end but at least he stopped Biden from really nailing him on anything.
Biden was disappointing. He's not ga-ga or senile, but he is a bit slow - too slow to deal effectively with what effectively a persistent heckler. He bumbled a bit, and was curiously soft-spoken, but there were no major gaffes so job done really. Trump had to knock him out to draw, and he didn't.
I was surprised at the Betfair movements. I didn't see any reason to start topping up on Biden, but some people did. Maybe Biden did a bit more than survive then, but not with me.
"The first presidential debate concluded moments ago, and commentators are already describing the debate as a “dumpster fire” as a “shit show.”
“That was a hot mess, inside a dumpster fire, inside a train wreck,” CNN anchor Jake Tapper said. “That was the worst debate I have ever seen. It wasn’t even a debate. It was a disgrace. And it’s primarily because of President Trump.”"
I thought Trump overdid it. He went a bit too far even for some of his own supporters, (the more centrist ones). The betting market has moved in Biden's direction.
Well I got suckered by Trump again! I believed it when he said he wasn't going to prepare but he was beautifully prepared and full of aggression and life. He completely overwhelmed Biden at times but as the game went on it became increasingly clear it was a strategy to avoid substantive discussion. I think he overdid it in the end but at least he stopped Biden from really nailing him on anything.
Biden was disappointing. He's not ga-ga or senile, but he is a bit slow - too slow to deal effectively with what effectively a persistent heckler. He bumbled a bit, and was curiously soft-spoken, but there were no major gaffes so job done really. Trump had to knock him out to draw, and he didn't.
I was surprised at the Betfair movements. I didn't see any reason to start topping up on Biden, but some people did. Maybe Biden did a bit more than survive then, but not with me.
Biden now down to 1.67. I'm surprised too. But Biden had some straight to camera moments that might appeal to undecideds. Trump just bullied and I can't see him attracting undecideds though no doubt committed Trumpians cheered.
It wasn't a game changer for Trump and it needed to be. Perhaps that's why the money is going on Biden.
A big Trump win, for me. Not because he was any good - on policy substance, he was terrible - but because he bullied and hectored Biden into looking old, sad and a bit bewildered, which he is.
I fully expect Biden to win, but, my Lord, what a selection of candidates.
Tapper on CNN abandoning any pretence of neutrality. And rightly so, 4 more years of Trump and the US is probably in a civil war
I actually think it's a mistake for stations like CNN to be partisan, even though I don't support Trump. It plays into his hands because he can accuse the media of being biased, and then helps shore up his support.
I only watched the last 5 minutes. I chose sleep over this - and it looks like I made the right call. From the little I saw, and from reading the thread here, Biden did worse than I hoped but better than I feared. Thankfully it seems Trump was even worse than Biden. As the pundits are saying, “what a shit show”.
Debates live on clips afterwards, on the news and on social media. Biden wins on these. Trump telling the Proud Boys "to stand by", and this bit dissing Beau Biden:
Tapper on CNN abandoning any pretence of neutrality. And rightly so, 4 more years of Trump and the US is probably in a civil war
I actually think it's a mistake for stations like CNN to be partisan, even though I don't support Trump. It plays into his hands because he can accuse the media of being biased, and then helps shore up his support.
Glad you said that. I check CNN regularly for the news but it is hysterically partisan and that doesn't help anybody.
The move in the betting towards Biden does seem surprising given the weakness of both candidates in the debate. Based on the debate alone it feels like an over reaction in favour of Biden. Based on the fundamentals though, I think Biden should be an even shorter favourite than he currently is.
Isn’t it ridiculous that both SPIN and Spreadex are suspended for the POTUS markets. Are their traders incapable of forming an opinion? Of making a book?
The move in the betting towards Biden does seem surprising given the weakness of both candidates in the debate. Based on the debate alone it feels like an over reaction in favour of Biden. Based on the fundamentals though, I think Biden should be an even shorter favourite than he currently is.
That's the only way I can account for the market movement. You have to assume cautious punters regarded tonite as a hazard for Biden and now he's through it (kind of ok but not great) the odds are moving closer to where the poll models say they should be.
It's strange, but then it's been a strange year.
I see Villa are unbeaten in the EPL. Just how strange can things get?
The move in the betting towards Biden does seem surprising given the weakness of both candidates in the debate. Based on the debate alone it feels like an over reaction in favour of Biden. Based on the fundamentals though, I think Biden should be an even shorter favourite than he currently is.
That's the only way I can account for the market movement. You have to assume cautious punters regarded tonite as a hazard for Biden and now he's through it (kind of ok but not great) the odds are moving closer to where the poll models say they should be.
It's strange, but then it's been a strange year.
I see Villa are unbeaten in the EPL. Just how strange can things get?
Yes. That makes sense to me Peter. I cringe when I see Biden struggle and stumble. But the bar is set so low this year that a degree of forgetfulness and lack of fluency appears permissible with the electorate.
The move in the betting towards Biden does seem surprising given the weakness of both candidates in the debate. Based on the debate alone it feels like an over reaction in favour of Biden. Based on the fundamentals though, I think Biden should be an even shorter favourite than he currently is.
That's the only way I can account for the market movement. You have to assume cautious punters regarded tonite as a hazard for Biden and now he's through it (kind of ok but not great) the odds are moving closer to where the poll models say they should be.
It's strange, but then it's been a strange year.
I see Villa are unbeaten in the EPL. Just how strange can things get?
David Cameron will be pleased. West Ham mid-table too. There's some new thread action over there btw.
Went for a very plez oyster lunch with a friend in Soho today.
Oxford St, Regent St, and Soho now feel almost normal, with the added tedium of masks and queues, for sure - but normal. A lot of shoppers, plenty of traffic. Shops actually busy.
It was an agreeably warm sunny Autumn day but certainly not high summer, and yet the crowds were out. Restaurants pretty full. Bars mildly buzzing.
If we can avoid another calamitous national lockdown, we may also avoid economic Apocalypse. And the predictions of the End of London might prove premature.
You mean your predictions of the End of London?
Yes indeed. And God I hope I am about to be proved wrong.
I love this city. The greatest city in the world. Today reminded me of its incredible potential: still. London has everything: history, modernity, scale, beauty, grandeur, squalor, poverty, wealth, skyscrapers, palaces, Roman walls, the Shard, the river Thames, superb oyster houses, 25 universities, 5 royal parks, the best sport in the world, and amazing amazing people. Talent by the ton.
If it can survive Covid and power through, then I will happily eat a whole plate of humble pie (from my own recipe, and from the Groucho Club) and onwards we GO.
This week an architect/designer friend of mine was employed (at HUGE expense) to completely gut and redesign the Belgravia mansion of a famous Indian billionaire, a project expected to take 3-4 years, and cost squillions.
It may seem trivial, it is not. The ultra-rich are not deserting London. They expect to stay here, despite Covid, despite Brexit. They are voting with their non moving feet.
The rich stay in safe, successful, exciting cities. If London can remain that global attraction, then the UK economy will benefit, as a whole, and this is a serous positive for us all.
Being serious for a moment, the real issue for London will surely be changing working practices now everyone realises WFH works pretty well for many white collar jobs.
But, i think this is temporary. In the end WFH is actually quite dull. Certainly for anyone under 40, or even 50 (maybe more so if you have kids)
The commute is a pain, sure, but it thrusts you away from humdrum domesticity into THE CITY, an exciting world of social, romantic, conversational, sexual, culinary, professional, emotional opportunity. People do it because they like it, in the end, even if they whine about it.
Sitting in a house outside Reading in your pyjamas doing your job on a laptop has an appeal for a while, but long term? No. People will always want to congregate, to go where the action is, to see and be seen. To have that random chat in a pub that leads to a brilliant job, to meet someone at random in the company lobby and have a coffee and have a great idea.
Much truth here. Many people have a different identity at work to at home and for some it's empowering. At work they are Superman when at home they are Clark Kent. The commute is when they metaphorically don their cape. Take that away and you're left with something that can be quite banal. The work gets done but there's no magic.
Exactly!
I think just putting on a suit changes a person (like Superman, as you rightly say). You take off the pyjamas, and you put on a crisp white shirt and tie, and dark jacket, and you march off to work, empowered and keen and ready. And you work better as a result, rather than slobbing around at home in your dressing gown doing Zoom. Eating chocolate hobnobs.
This is one reason armies have uniforms, the mere fact of putting on your uniform stiffens the spine (and broadens the shoulders aesthetically) and creates an esprit de corps. Men look good in cavalry gear or dark suits, less so in boxer shorts and a stained hoodie.
Also see parties: men look good in full dinner jacket ensemble, women look great in sexy and expensive dresses, as against a onesie?
Cities that demand expensive dress codes will always appeal. They provide status, and mark your rise through society. For that reason, they are not going away, indeed, I think they are soon returning.
Sounding a bit like my favourite ever literary character -
“All it comes down to is this: I feel like shit but look great.”
Comments
Start: 1.78
End : 1.70
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1311133166858645506?s=21
"Most chaotic debate ever"
"May be the last debate"
Forget Sanders. Tulsi Gabbard would have steamrolled.
But draw, I suppose. Neither man did anything to change anyone's perceptions.
Biden was disappointing. He's not ga-ga or senile, but he is a bit slow - too slow to deal effectively with what effectively a persistent heckler. He bumbled a bit, and was curiously soft-spoken, but there were no major gaffes so job done really. Trump had to knock him out to draw, and he didn't.
I was surprised at the Betfair movements. I didn't see any reason to start topping up on Biden, but some people did. Maybe Biden did a bit more than survive then, but not with me.
That's Luntz's focus group and err errm *crickets*
It's like, imagine if you were watching a really terrible TV show and the way you worked the remote control was by writing an X in a box.
Big move from 1.78 at start.
Some people must have seen exit poll to some degree.
“That was a hot mess, inside a dumpster fire, inside a train wreck,” CNN anchor Jake Tapper said. “That was the worst debate I have ever seen. It wasn’t even a debate. It was a disgrace. And it’s primarily because of President Trump.”"
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/sep/29/presidential-debate-latest-news-tonight-watch-trump-biden-taxes-coronavirus-updates
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1311131311965306885?s=20
It wasn't a game changer for Trump and it needed to be. Perhaps that's why the money is going on Biden.
I fully expect Biden to win, but, my Lord, what a selection of candidates.
Hillary won the first 2016 debate by 34% so a draw or narrow loss an improvement for Trump but Biden will be pleased not to have lost any real ground.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/195923/clinton-debate-victory-larger-side-modern-debates.aspx
2 more to go and the VP debate, night all
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1311131256009170945?s=19
https://www.axios.com/donald-trump-joe-biden-debate-a03c95b1-b527-48bc-84ee-bf038d1f4cbd.html
It's strange, but then it's been a strange year.
I see Villa are unbeaten in the EPL. Just how strange can things get?
Maggie: What If The Presidential Debate Was Like the Worst Fight Your Uncles Ever Had At Thanksgiving.
Up the Villa!
Who won?
Biden 60
Trump 28
(Audience: Dem 39, Ind 36, Rep 25)
All hugely pro Biden, Biden attacks seen as fair (by miles), Trump attacks unfair (by miles).
https://twitter.com/mi2_yes/status/1311114443003027456