I am a little disappointed that Gavin Williamson's burning of seditious books in English schools has been more or less ignored. My reading is great works like Robert Tressell's "The Ragged Trousered Philanthopists" will be consigned to the dustbin. English schoolchildren under Williamson's proposals will be able to read Mein Kampf at school but not Das Kapital.
When have English schoolchildren ever read Das Kapital? When has it ever been on the syllabus?
My school, at least in the sixth form political theory special lessons (as were Hobbes, Locke and Mill), though not as the book but in precis/summary form.
Does Gavin Williamson’s dictat apply to sixth form political theory? I doubt it somehow.
He has demanded the removal of anti-Capitalist books. I would suggest that being the case, Das Kapital is the daddy!
Whilst I have been saying for yonks that Gavin Williamson is useless, I feel compelled to point out that, no, he hasn't ' demanded the removal of anti-Capitalist books'.
If you are going to criticise politicians, you really do need to get basic facts right:
“Schools should not under any circumstances use resources produced by organisations that take extreme political stances on matters.
“This is the case even if the material itself is not extreme, as the use of it could imply endorsement or support of the organisation.”
The document adds: “Extreme political stances include, but are not limited to… a publicly stated desire to abolish or overthrow democracy, capitalism, or to end free and fair elections.”
Well that is Das Kapital in the bin. The last statement is vague enough to cover all that has been discussed.
No the point is that Das Kapital can still be studied, but it can't be presented as fact to students. I meet a lot of young people who are absolutely certain that communism has absolutely no downsides because their teachers and professors all said it's never really been done properly.
Are all teachers and professors Marxists? If so, quite a change. A long time ago, but most of mine were free market fundamentalists. They didn't brainwash me into idiocy.
Andalucia gets the 'rule of 6' amidst overwhelming evidence that family gatherings this summer have been the prime cause of the second wave in the region. One town in seville gets a 14 day lockdown.
Family gatherings seem to be the issue all over, but still people bang on about beer gardens and beaches.
It looks like it`s all boiling down to the viral dose, doesn`t it. If so, masks and social distancing could suffice.
As I say - relatively mild restrictions and pretty easy to follow - but the loophole loonies are in charge.
I am a little disappointed that Gavin Williamson's burning of seditious books in English schools has been more or less ignored. My reading is great works like Robert Tressell's "The Ragged Trousered Philanthopists" will be consigned to the dustbin. English schoolchildren under Williamson's proposals will be able to read Mein Kampf at school but not Das Kapital.
When have English schoolchildren ever read Das Kapital? When has it ever been on the syllabus?
My school, at least in the sixth form political theory special lessons (as were Hobbes, Locke and Mill), though not as the book but in precis/summary form.
Does Gavin Williamson’s dictat apply to sixth form political theory? I doubt it somehow.
He has demanded the removal of anti-Capitalist books. I would suggest that being the case, Das Kapital is the daddy!
Whilst I have been saying for yonks that Gavin Williamson is useless, I feel compelled to point out that, no, he hasn't ' demanded the removal of anti-Capitalist books'.
If you are going to criticise politicians, you really do need to get basic facts right:
“Schools should not under any circumstances use resources produced by organisations that take extreme political stances on matters.
“This is the case even if the material itself is not extreme, as the use of it could imply endorsement or support of the organisation.”
The document adds: “Extreme political stances include, but are not limited to… a publicly stated desire to abolish or overthrow democracy, capitalism, or to end free and fair elections.”
"Include but are not limited to" is the key phrase though. Who decides. Who pays them to decide? Who oversees them? And, crucially, was this ever a problem? It's bollocks, and dangerous bollocks too, whatever the fine print.
You might be interesting in some of the literature that has been used in education settings. Or worried. It's a strange, strange world out there.
Well, you - as a presumably typical Tory - are always talking about sending the tanks into Scotland and the task forces to invade Spain.
I don't believe HYUFD is a "typical Tory".
Well I am more so than you are certainly
I don't claim to be typical.
I am me. I don't want to be typical.
How typical is that?
Good question.
My philosophy is one where I fundamentally believe in individualism and not communitarianism.
As such fitting in a mould as HYUFD tries to do as a "typical Tory" seems to be rather counter-intuitive to my philosophy.
Indeed you are more a Liberal or libertarian than a traditional Tory.
The Tory Party was originally the party of the monarchy, landed gentry and the Anglican church and as you are a republican atheist you can never really be a true Tory
Indeed. But the Conservatives have long appealed to traditional liberals and libertarians. If the Conservatives only won the votes of traditional landed gentry like yourself then the party would long since have faded away to being a tiny minority of the electorate.
Since the Liberal Democrats are as a truly liberal as a Democratic Republic is truly a democracy that leaves me nowhere else to go.
Well that is Das Kapital in the bin. The last statement is vague enough to cover all that has been discussed.
Only if you are blinkered enough to ignore the bit I helpfully put in bold.
Or perhaps you think it would be OK for schools to use teaching materials produced by Britain First or the Socialist Workers Party?
In context, extreme political material should be analysed and repudiated rather than sent underground. When I read political theory in University we analysed a number of modern extreme right wing American Libertarian thinkers. Robert Nozick comes to mind. Some of these academics would argue that murder was acceptable because stopping someone doing the deed was illibertarian. Mad stuff, but it was fascinating to read and argue against.
I am not for one moment suggesting ISIS handbooks should be available in school libraries, but the works of Marx and Engels, yes.
BF has a market named "Electoral College Vote H'cap" and the handicap is pitched at 48.5 in Trump`s favour. On this basis the odds are 1.93 Trump, 2.06 Biden.
So, near on a 100% book and I`ve had a very small bet on Biden at those odds.
Any views?
Basically a bet at evens that Biden will get over 293 ECVs. Seems sound enough as a bet. The various models have the 50% probability under/over line at between 330 and 350, depending on who you believe.
Well that is Das Kapital in the bin. The last statement is vague enough to cover all that has been discussed.
Only if you are blinkered enough to ignore the bit I helpfully put in bold.
Or perhaps you think it would be OK for schools to use teaching materials produced by Britain First or the Socialist Workers Party?
In context, extreme political material should be analysed and repudiated rather than sent underground. When I read political theory in University we analysed a number of modern extreme right wing American Libertarian thinkers. Robert Nozick comes to mind. Some of these academics would argue that murder was acceptable because stopping someone doing the deed was illibertarian. Mad stuff, but it was fascinating to read and argue against.
I am not for one moment suggesting ISIS handbooks should be available in school libraries, but the works of Marx and Engels, yes.
I am a little disappointed that Gavin Williamson's burning of seditious books in English schools has been more or less ignored. My reading is great works like Robert Tressell's "The Ragged Trousered Philanthopists" will be consigned to the dustbin. English schoolchildren under Williamson's proposals will be able to read Mein Kampf at school but not Das Kapital.
When have English schoolchildren ever read Das Kapital? When has it ever been on the syllabus?
My school, at least in the sixth form political theory special lessons (as were Hobbes, Locke and Mill), though not as the book but in precis/summary form.
Does Gavin Williamson’s dictat apply to sixth form political theory? I doubt it somehow.
He has demanded the removal of anti-Capitalist books. I would suggest that being the case, Das Kapital is the daddy!
Whilst I have been saying for yonks that Gavin Williamson is useless, I feel compelled to point out that, no, he hasn't ' demanded the removal of anti-Capitalist books'.
If you are going to criticise politicians, you really do need to get basic facts right:
“Schools should not under any circumstances use resources produced by organisations that take extreme political stances on matters.
“This is the case even if the material itself is not extreme, as the use of it could imply endorsement or support of the organisation.”
The document adds: “Extreme political stances include, but are not limited to… a publicly stated desire to abolish or overthrow democracy, capitalism, or to end free and fair elections.”
Replacing capitalism with an alternative economic system is not an extreme political stance.
Well that is Das Kapital in the bin. The last statement is vague enough to cover all that has been discussed.
Only if you are blinkered enough to ignore the bit I helpfully put in bold.
Or perhaps you think it would be OK for schools to use teaching materials produced by Britain First or the Socialist Workers Party?
In context, extreme political material should be analysed and repudiated rather than sent underground. When I read political theory in University we analysed a number of modern extreme right wing American Libertarian thinkers. Robert Nozick comes to mind. Some of these academics would argue that murder was acceptable because stopping someone doing the deed was illibertarian. Mad stuff, but it was fascinating to read and argue against.
I am not for one moment suggesting ISIS handbooks should be available in school libraries, but the works of Marx and Engels, yes.
Nor are the government.
“Extreme political stances include, but are not limited to… a publicly stated desire to abolish or overthrow democracy, capitalism, or to end free and fair elections.”
Andalucia gets the 'rule of 6' amidst overwhelming evidence that family gatherings this summer have been the prime cause of the second wave in the region. One town in seville gets a 14 day lockdown.
Family gatherings seem to be the issue all over, but still people bang on about beer gardens and beaches.
I do suspect that many cases do originate at parties, clubs, etc but most revellersd head back to the family at some point.
And track and trace picks up the 4 family members you infected, but not the 30 people you infected on a pub crawl.
Well, you - as a presumably typical Tory - are always talking about sending the tanks into Scotland and the task forces to invade Spain.
I don't believe HYUFD is a "typical Tory".
Well I am more so than you are certainly
I don't claim to be typical.
I am me. I don't want to be typical.
How typical is that?
Good question.
My philosophy is one where I fundamentally believe in individualism and not communitarianism.
As such fitting in a mould as HYUFD tries to do as a "typical Tory" seems to be rather counter-intuitive to my philosophy.
Indeed you are more a Liberal or libertarian than a traditional Tory.
The Tory Party was originally the party of the monarchy, landed gentry and the Anglican church and as you are a republican atheist you can never really be a true Tory
Indeed. But the Conservatives have long appealed to traditional liberals and libertarians. If the Conservatives only won the votes of traditional landed gentry like yourself then the party would long since have faded away to being a tiny minority of the electorate.
Since the Liberal Democrats are as a truly liberal as a Democratic Republic is truly a democracy that leaves me nowhere else to go.
Davey is more in the traditional Liberal mould but yes I do agree both the Tories and Labour need to appeal beyond their conservative and socialist core vote to win enough liberal support to win a general election
I wonder if it is better to face Boris or Rishi at the next GE. If he faces Boris, that means that the Tories think Boris will beat him, which means the public haven't turned on him over Brexit and lockdown. If it is Rishi, it is because the Cons have become unpopular enough to get rid of their last majority winner, so on balance it is prob best he faces the latter
Well that is Das Kapital in the bin. The last statement is vague enough to cover all that has been discussed.
Only if you are blinkered enough to ignore the bit I helpfully put in bold.
Or perhaps you think it would be OK for schools to use teaching materials produced by Britain First or the Socialist Workers Party?
In context, extreme political material should be analysed and repudiated rather than sent underground. When I read political theory in University we analysed a number of modern extreme right wing American Libertarian thinkers. Robert Nozick comes to mind. Some of these academics would argue that murder was acceptable because stopping someone doing the deed was illibertarian. Mad stuff, but it was fascinating to read and argue against.
I am not for one moment suggesting ISIS handbooks should be available in school libraries, but the works of Marx and Engels, yes.
Yes. The likes of Nozick was uber trendy at Unis in the 80s and 90s. Heavily touted by many academics. Perhaps leading to some of the loonier views in Parliament and the media nowadays?
The tories do not really fear Starmer. What they fear is a concerted, well organised and well funded attack from the right.
And here it comes courtesy of Laurence "Lozza" Fox.
A brand new political party called RECLAIM. So called because it's mission is "to reclaim British values" from the "cesspit of wokeness into which we are falling" - this last bit in quotes but is in fact my own work.
I was a bit surprised to find Richard Ayoade is Lozzas brother in Law. Not impressed by his QToutburst apparently. Oh how the establishment inter twine.
Only the BP has the professionalism, the reach, the name and the organisation to effectively challenge the tories on the right at the moment
James Forsyth has written that Farage's former acolytes are trying to get him to decide if he wants to lead. I guess he is waiting to see how brexit gets decided.
The opening for Farage is ongoing heavy migration, not Brexit.
Well, you - as a presumably typical Tory - are always talking about sending the tanks into Scotland and the task forces to invade Spain.
I don't believe HYUFD is a "typical Tory".
Well I am more so than you are certainly
I don't claim to be typical.
I am me. I don't want to be typical.
How typical is that?
Good question.
My philosophy is one where I fundamentally believe in individualism and not communitarianism.
As such fitting in a mould as HYUFD tries to do as a "typical Tory" seems to be rather counter-intuitive to my philosophy.
Indeed you are more a Liberal or libertarian than a traditional Tory.
The Tory Party was originally the party of the monarchy, landed gentry and the Anglican church and as you are a republican atheist you can never really be a true Tory
Indeed. But the Conservatives have long appealed to traditional liberals and libertarians. If the Conservatives only won the votes of traditional landed gentry like yourself then the party would long since have faded away to being a tiny minority of the electorate.
Since the Liberal Democrats are as a truly liberal as a Democratic Republic is truly a democracy that leaves me nowhere else to go.
I guess a strong libertarian might consider UKIP? For Liberals, there is the Liberal Party, but they only stand a handful of candidates. So the LibDems it continues to be for me as they are more liberal than the Conservative Party and, of course, Labour.
I agree with you that the LibDems, since the SDP infiltration I think, have steadily moved in the Labour direction. I`m hoping that Davey will reposition the party equidistant between the two major parties and redefine liberalism along J S Mill lines.
The traditional tired old quip againt voting LibDem is the "wasted vote" jibe, but those making it don`t seem to realise that all votes are wasted in FPTP when there has never in history been a constituency whose outcome has been settled by one vote.
Andalucia gets the 'rule of 6' amidst overwhelming evidence that family gatherings this summer have been the prime cause of the second wave in the region. One town in seville gets a 14 day lockdown.
Family gatherings seem to be the issue all over, but still people bang on about beer gardens and beaches.
I do suspect that many cases do originate at parties, clubs, etc but most revellersd head back to the family at some point.
And track and trace picks up the 4 family members you infected, but not the 30 people you infected on a pub crawl.
In Ireland they're now starting to put more effort into tracking back where cases were caught from so that they have the evidence to persuade people. Recent examples are:
A case in Roscommon where a publican tested positive, but didn't have symptoms so thought it was okay to open their pub for an 18th birthday party - infecting 25 others.
In County Cork, 70 of the 350 cases in the last two weeks have been traced back to restaurants and pubs.
I think to gauge this one needs also to go into the mechanisms by which Boris might be replaced and apply, not just to Conservative history, but to 2020. This, I have to say, is not necessarily about how well or badly Boris does in role, but more about his will to stay in role.
I don't see him resigning any time soon. He is rather indifferent to indignity, the sense that things are going badly is likely quite normal for him, and he has not tended to quit. If he has long COVID, a failing relationship, terrible politics, it's all grist to the mill. I don't see it.
So, the Tory party will do for him? Who are the Tory party, here? MPs who hold the Conservative whip can write a letter to the 1922 chair. And those that don't hold the whip? Truth is, Boris holds a voter suppression card here, and has shown willing to use it.
On the other hand, voter removal also applies to fending off Keir - Scotland is the key. A legal right to Sindyref2, Boris's majority to defend, soddenly gets around 50 higher.
Of course if he goes down these routes to defend his position, then it is a little like mining goodwill from the bottom.of a cliff - as you dig out one lot of disloyal Tory MPs, more drop from above until the whole edifice collapses, lose the Union, screw up Brexit so badly - perhaps Keir wins the GE anyway sans-Ecosse.
My philosophy is one where I fundamentally believe in individualism and not communitarianism.
Weren't you telling us yesterday how nations have distinct characters?
I never said that everyone in that country was uniform did I?
Yes every country is unique, just as every individual is unique. How is that contradictory?
If every individual were truly unique then a country would be simply a random collection of individuals, which would be indistinguishable from one another.
Well, you - as a presumably typical Tory - are always talking about sending the tanks into Scotland and the task forces to invade Spain.
I don't believe HYUFD is a "typical Tory".
Well I am more so than you are certainly
I don't claim to be typical.
I am me. I don't want to be typical.
How typical is that?
Good question.
My philosophy is one where I fundamentally believe in individualism and not communitarianism.
As such fitting in a mould as HYUFD tries to do as a "typical Tory" seems to be rather counter-intuitive to my philosophy.
Indeed you are more a Liberal or libertarian than a traditional Tory.
The Tory Party was originally the party of the monarchy, landed gentry and the Anglican church and as you are a republican atheist you can never really be a true Tory
Indeed. But the Conservatives have long appealed to traditional liberals and libertarians. If the Conservatives only won the votes of traditional landed gentry like yourself then the party would long since have faded away to being a tiny minority of the electorate.
Since the Liberal Democrats are as a truly liberal as a Democratic Republic is truly a democracy that leaves me nowhere else to go.
I guess a strong libertarian might consider UKIP? For Liberals, there is the Liberal Party, but they only stand a handful of candidates. So the LibDems it continues to be for me as they are more liberal than the Conservative Party and, of course, Labour.
I agree with you that the LibDems, since the SDP infiltration I think, have steadily moved in the Labour direction. I`m hoping that Davey will reposition the party equidistant between the two major parties and redefine liberalism along J S Mill lines.
The traditional tired old quip againt voting LibDem is the "wasted vote" jibe, but those making it don`t seem to realise that all votes are wasted in FPTP when there has never in history been a constituency whose outcome has been settled by one vote.
There was in Zanzibar I believe. And Winchester at the 1997 GE was by just two.
The tories do not really fear Starmer. What they fear is a concerted, well organised and well funded attack from the right.
And here it comes courtesy of Laurence "Lozza" Fox.
A brand new political party called RECLAIM. So called because it's mission is "to reclaim British values" from the "cesspit of wokeness into which we are falling" - this last bit in quotes but is in fact my own work.
I was a bit surprised to find Richard Ayoade is Lozzas brother in Law. Not impressed by his QToutburst apparently. Oh how the establishment inter twine.
Only the BP has the professionalism, the reach, the name and the organisation to effectively challenge the tories on the right at the moment
James Forsyth has written that Farage's former acolytes are trying to get him to decide if he wants to lead. I guess he is waiting to see how brexit gets decided.
The opening for Farage is ongoing heavy migration, not Brexit.
It's on lockdown I reckon
Farage was agnostic on lockdown originally. I'm not sure he's really a libertarian in that sense.
Well that is Das Kapital in the bin. The last statement is vague enough to cover all that has been discussed.
Only if you are blinkered enough to ignore the bit I helpfully put in bold.
Or perhaps you think it would be OK for schools to use teaching materials produced by Britain First or the Socialist Workers Party?
In context, extreme political material should be analysed and repudiated rather than sent underground. When I read political theory in University we analysed a number of modern extreme right wing American Libertarian thinkers. Robert Nozick comes to mind. Some of these academics would argue that murder was acceptable because stopping someone doing the deed was illibertarian. Mad stuff, but it was fascinating to read and argue against.
I am not for one moment suggesting ISIS handbooks should be available in school libraries, but the works of Marx and Engels, yes.
Yes. The likes of Nozick was uber trendy at Unis in the 80s and 90s. Heavily touted by many academics. Perhaps leading to some of the loonier views in Parliament and the media nowadays?
That seems true today with some Tory MPs believing we should be at liberty to infect our friends, neighbours and strangers with a potentially fatal virus, and our liberty is compromised if we are stopped from doing so.
Well, you - as a presumably typical Tory - are always talking about sending the tanks into Scotland and the task forces to invade Spain.
I don't believe HYUFD is a "typical Tory".
Well I am more so than you are certainly
I don't claim to be typical.
I am me. I don't want to be typical.
How typical is that?
Good question.
My philosophy is one where I fundamentally believe in individualism and not communitarianism.
As such fitting in a mould as HYUFD tries to do as a "typical Tory" seems to be rather counter-intuitive to my philosophy.
Indeed you are more a Liberal or libertarian than a traditional Tory.
The Tory Party was originally the party of the monarchy, landed gentry and the Anglican church and as you are a republican atheist you can never really be a true Tory
Indeed. But the Conservatives have long appealed to traditional liberals and libertarians. If the Conservatives only won the votes of traditional landed gentry like yourself then the party would long since have faded away to being a tiny minority of the electorate.
Since the Liberal Democrats are as a truly liberal as a Democratic Republic is truly a democracy that leaves me nowhere else to go.
I guess a strong libertarian might consider UKIP? For Liberals, there is the Liberal Party, but they only stand a handful of candidates. So the LibDems it continues to be for me as they are more liberal than the Conservative Party and, of course, Labour.
I agree with you that the LibDems, since the SDP infiltration I think, have steadily moved in the Labour direction. I`m hoping that Davey will reposition the party equidistant between the two major parties and redefine liberalism along J S Mill lines.
The traditional tired old quip againt voting LibDem is the "wasted vote" jibe, but those making it don`t seem to realise that all votes are wasted in FPTP when there has never in history been a constituency whose outcome has been settled by one vote.
The tories do not really fear Starmer. What they fear is a concerted, well organised and well funded attack from the right.
And here it comes courtesy of Laurence "Lozza" Fox.
A brand new political party called RECLAIM. So called because it's mission is "to reclaim British values" from the "cesspit of wokeness into which we are falling" - this last bit in quotes but is in fact my own work.
I was a bit surprised to find Richard Ayoade is Lozzas brother in Law. Not impressed by his QToutburst apparently. Oh how the establishment inter twine.
Only the BP has the professionalism, the reach, the name and the organisation to effectively challenge the tories on the right at the moment
James Forsyth has written that Farage's former acolytes are trying to get him to decide if he wants to lead. I guess he is waiting to see how brexit gets decided.
The opening for Farage is ongoing heavy migration, not Brexit.
It's on lockdown I reckon
Farage was agnostic on lockdown originally. I'm not sure he's really a libertarian in that sense.
Hard to say what he is other than an egotistical foghorn.
The tories do not really fear Starmer. What they fear is a concerted, well organised and well funded attack from the right.
And here it comes courtesy of Laurence "Lozza" Fox.
A brand new political party called RECLAIM. So called because it's mission is "to reclaim British values" from the "cesspit of wokeness into which we are falling" - this last bit in quotes but is in fact my own work.
I was a bit surprised to find Richard Ayoade is Lozzas brother in Law. Not impressed by his QToutburst apparently. Oh how the establishment inter twine.
Only the BP has the professionalism, the reach, the name and the organisation to effectively challenge the tories on the right at the moment
James Forsyth has written that Farage's former acolytes are trying to get him to decide if he wants to lead. I guess he is waiting to see how brexit gets decided.
The opening for Farage is ongoing heavy migration, not Brexit.
It's on lockdown I reckon
Farage was agnostic on lockdown originally. I'm not sure he's really a libertarian in that sense.
I don't think that really matters. If he is the only anti lockdown politician when public opinion turns on it, he will benefit, as would any other politician while the Westminster consensus are as united as they are.
Plenty of people suffered the first lockdown, but are not interested in respecting the second
My philosophy is one where I fundamentally believe in individualism and not communitarianism.
Weren't you telling us yesterday how nations have distinct characters?
I never said that everyone in that country was uniform did I?
Yes every country is unique, just as every individual is unique. How is that contradictory?
If every individual were truly unique then a country would be simply a random collection of individuals, which would be indistinguishable from one another.
There is no reason for that to be true, unless all individuals were random but I never said that did I?
Unique and random are two totally different concepts.
I wonder if it is better to face Boris or Rishi at the next GE. If he faces Boris, that means that the Tories think Boris will beat him, which means the public haven't turned on him over Brexit and lockdown. If it is Rishi, it is because the Cons have become unpopular enough to get rid of their last majority winner, so on balance it is prob best he faces the latter
Plus Bozo's strength is the campaign. Rishi may be as bad as May during an election campaign.
My philosophy is one where I fundamentally believe in individualism and not communitarianism.
Weren't you telling us yesterday how nations have distinct characters?
I never said that everyone in that country was uniform did I?
Yes every country is unique, just as every individual is unique. How is that contradictory?
If every individual were truly unique then a country would be simply a random collection of individuals, which would be indistinguishable from one another.
There is no reason for that to be true, unless all individuals were random but I never said that did I?
Unique and random are two totally different concepts.
So members of a nation are unique in similar ways?
I've seen that said before - is it a PB saying, or is there some special issue involved, please?
The old tales tell of someone, upsetting the Gods Of PB by posting Scottish subsamples.
The damnatio memoriae implemented against that person was so extreme that most deny it ever happened. Some say the timeline was altered so that he never existed.
Ah the Forgotten War.
Some say those in Scotland and Sweden never forget.
The reinfection survey is great news for vaccine development
“Risk of reinfection was estimated at 0.01% (95% CI: 0.01-0.02%) and incidence rate of “Risk of reinfection was estimated at 0.01% (95% CI: 0.01-0.02%) and incidence rate of reinfection was estimated at 0.36 (95% CI: 0.28-0.47) per 10,000 person-weeks. Conclusions: SARS-CoV-2 reinfection can occur but is a rare phenomenon..”
I wonder if it is better to face Boris or Rishi at the next GE. If he faces Boris, that means that the Tories think Boris will beat him, which means the public haven't turned on him over Brexit and lockdown. If it is Rishi, it is because the Cons have become unpopular enough to get rid of their last majority winner, so on balance it is prob best he faces the latter
Plus Bozo's strength is the campaign. Rishi may be as bad as May during an election campaign.
Yes, I think that is the missing part of the "Personality rating" puzzle. It's the difference a charismatic leader makes selling his or her vision during the campaign. It's easy to gain polling credibilty mid term by criticising every unpopular govt policy, it works for every LotO, but when it comes to decision time, a relative dullard struggles to get over the line
Well, you - as a presumably typical Tory - are always talking about sending the tanks into Scotland and the task forces to invade Spain.
I don't believe HYUFD is a "typical Tory".
Well I am more so than you are certainly
I don't claim to be typical.
I am me. I don't want to be typical.
How typical is that?
Good question.
My philosophy is one where I fundamentally believe in individualism and not communitarianism.
As such fitting in a mould as HYUFD tries to do as a "typical Tory" seems to be rather counter-intuitive to my philosophy.
Indeed you are more a Liberal or libertarian than a traditional Tory.
The Tory Party was originally the party of the monarchy, landed gentry and the Anglican church and as you are a republican atheist you can never really be a true Tory
Indeed. But the Conservatives have long appealed to traditional liberals and libertarians. If the Conservatives only won the votes of traditional landed gentry like yourself then the party would long since have faded away to being a tiny minority of the electorate.
Since the Liberal Democrats are as a truly liberal as a Democratic Republic is truly a democracy that leaves me nowhere else to go.
Davey is more in the traditional Liberal mould but yes I do agree both the Tories and Labour need to appeal beyond their conservative and socialist core vote to win enough liberal support to win a general election
We were reminded in one session at the recent Lib Dem Conference about the standpoint of Jo Grimond on this: I don´t like the Tories and I don´t trust Labour. Nowadays one might well add: I don´t trust the Tories either.
Poor old HY is totally confused on this. There is no way that the despicable, shambolic and oppressive Johnson-Cummings government could ever appeal to liberals.
Andalucia gets the 'rule of 6' amidst overwhelming evidence that family gatherings this summer have been the prime cause of the second wave in the region. One town in seville gets a 14 day lockdown.
Family gatherings seem to be the issue all over, but still people bang on about beer gardens and beaches.
I've seen that said before - is it a PB saying, or is there some special issue involved, please?
The old tales tell of someone, upsetting the Gods Of PB by posting Scottish subsamples.
The damnatio memoriae implemented against that person was so extreme that most deny it ever happened. Some say the timeline was altered so that he never existed.
Ah the Forgotten War.
Some say those in Scotland and Sweden never forget.
Some still pass their glass of cask strength turnip juice across a bowl of water while drinking The Toast.
I`ve already laid Starmer for Next PM a while back, £100 @ 3.01.
The other bet that stands out to me at the moment is a Lay on Labour to win a Overall Majority at next GE, which I think is ridiculously short at 4.1.
Yes.
I can see Labour getting to 290 seats with a fair wind but getting to 326 seats is very tough.
It would need a Labour resurgence in Scotland, I find that unlikely.
That is undoubtedly true. The only hope of achieving 326 is if the Tories, as incumbents, take all the blame for the economic armageddon that follows Covid (never mind no -deal Brexit).
Or a massively split right-wing vote due to Farage etc.
That's also very unlikely.
You say that - but Laurence Fox has skin in the game now with RECLAIM. If we end up with soft Brexit and a multi year lockdown that could leave millions a-fuming and a-foaming and up for grabs.
But my serious question -
What is your vaccine prognosis viz timing and impact?
I've been thinking next summer and it ends the health crisis if not the economic and financial one. But I'm feeling slightly less optimistic these last few days for some reason that I can't quite put my finger on - perhaps reading all those gloomy posts from people on yesterday evening's thread.
News networks are reporting that the Biden team has asked the Debate Commission for a break every 30 minutes this evening. Both the Commission and the Republicans said NO. Presidential debates are uninterrupted, and the networks structure their pre- and post- coverage to squeeze in more breaks to make up for it. There will be no seats for the candidates on the stage.
News networks are reporting that the Biden team has asked the Debate Commission for a break every 30 minutes this evening. Both the Commission and the Republicans said NO. Presidential debates are uninterrupted, and the networks structure their pre- and post- coverage to squeeze in more breaks to make up for it. There will be no seats for the candidates on the stage.
I wonder if it is better to face Boris or Rishi at the next GE. If he faces Boris, that means that the Tories think Boris will beat him, which means the public haven't turned on him over Brexit and lockdown. If it is Rishi, it is because the Cons have become unpopular enough to get rid of their last majority winner, so on balance it is prob best he faces the latter
Plus Bozo's strength is the campaign. Rishi may be as bad as May during an election campaign.
Yes, I think that is the missing part of the "Personality rating" puzzle. It's the difference a charismatic leader makes selling his or her vision during the campaign. It's easy to gain polling credibilty mid term by criticising every unpopular govt policy, it works for every LotO, but when it comes to decision time, a relative dullard struggles to get over the line
BF has a market named "Electoral College Vote H'cap" and the handicap is pitched at 48.5 in Trump`s favour. On this basis the odds are 1.93 Trump, 2.06 Biden.
So, near on a 100% book and I`ve had a very small bet on Biden at those odds.
Any views?
That's bang in line with Biden EC supremacy on the spreads. Mid price about 50. For me that's a buy - I'm long at 28 and not even thinking of closing out - and by similar token I think your bet at 2.06 is value. But I'm ultra TrumpToast as you know so this news will be unsurprising.
News networks are reporting that the Biden team has asked the Debate Commission for a break every 30 minutes this evening. Both the Commission and the Republicans said NO. Presidential debates are uninterrupted, and the networks structure their pre- and post- coverage to squeeze in more breaks to make up for it. There will be no seats for the candidates on the stage.
I`ve already laid Starmer for Next PM a while back, £100 @ 3.01.
The other bet that stands out to me at the moment is a Lay on Labour to win a Overall Majority at next GE, which I think is ridiculously short at 4.1.
Yes.
I can see Labour getting to 290 seats with a fair wind but getting to 326 seats is very tough.
It would need a Labour resurgence in Scotland, I find that unlikely.
That is undoubtedly true. The only hope of achieving 326 is if the Tories, as incumbents, take all the blame for the economic armageddon that follows Covid (never mind no -deal Brexit).
Or a massively split right-wing vote due to Farage etc.
That's also very unlikely.
You say that - but Laurence Fox has skin in the game now with RECLAIM. If we end up with soft Brexit and a multi year lockdown that could leave millions a-fuming and a-foaming and up for grabs.
But my serious question -
What is your vaccine prognosis viz timing and impact?
I've been thinking next summer and it ends the health crisis if not the economic and financial one. But I'm feeling slightly less optimistic these last few days for some reason that I can't quite put my finger on - perhaps reading all those gloomy posts from people on yesterday evening's thread.
Sorry, mine was one of the gloomier ones.
About Fox, if his project gets off the ground (a big if) he would be coming from a liberal perspective whereas Farage is more of a conservative I`d say. If it gets down to fight between the two to establish a new politcal force Farage would pulverise Fox into many pieces I`d suggest.
I`ve already laid Starmer for Next PM a while back, £100 @ 3.01.
The other bet that stands out to me at the moment is a Lay on Labour to win a Overall Majority at next GE, which I think is ridiculously short at 4.1.
Yes.
I can see Labour getting to 290 seats with a fair wind but getting to 326 seats is very tough.
It would need a Labour resurgence in Scotland, I find that unlikely.
That is undoubtedly true. The only hope of achieving 326 is if the Tories, as incumbents, take all the blame for the economic armageddon that follows Covid (never mind no -deal Brexit).
Or a massively split right-wing vote due to Farage etc.
That's also very unlikely.
You say that - but Laurence Fox has skin in the game now with RECLAIM. If we end up with soft Brexit and a multi year lockdown that could leave millions a-fuming and a-foaming and up for grabs.
But my serious question -
What is your vaccine prognosis viz timing and impact?
I've been thinking next summer and it ends the health crisis if not the economic and financial one. But I'm feeling slightly less optimistic these last few days for some reason that I can't quite put my finger on - perhaps reading all those gloomy posts from people on yesterday evening's thread.
Predictions are really difficult, especially about the future and especially about vaccines. "We've thrown so much money at so many, one of them has to come good" is an optimistic argument, and bear in mind that "50% effective and lasts for a year" is regarded as a success vaccinologically speaking.
I`ve already laid Starmer for Next PM a while back, £100 @ 3.01.
The other bet that stands out to me at the moment is a Lay on Labour to win a Overall Majority at next GE, which I think is ridiculously short at 4.1.
Yes.
I can see Labour getting to 290 seats with a fair wind but getting to 326 seats is very tough.
It would need a Labour resurgence in Scotland, I find that unlikely.
That is undoubtedly true. The only hope of achieving 326 is if the Tories, as incumbents, take all the blame for the economic armageddon that follows Covid (never mind no -deal Brexit).
Or a massively split right-wing vote due to Farage etc.
That's also very unlikely.
You say that - but Laurence Fox has skin in the game now with RECLAIM. If we end up with soft Brexit and a multi year lockdown that could leave millions a-fuming and a-foaming and up for grabs.
But my serious question -
What is your vaccine prognosis viz timing and impact?
I've been thinking next summer and it ends the health crisis if not the economic and financial one. But I'm feeling slightly less optimistic these last few days for some reason that I can't quite put my finger on - perhaps reading all those gloomy posts from people on yesterday evening's thread.
Predictions are really difficult, especially about the future and especially about vaccines. "We've thrown so much money at so many, one of them has to come good" is an optimistic argument, and bear in mind that "50% effective and lasts for a year" is regarded as a success vaccinologically speaking.
Also we don`t know the percentage of people that would refuse a vaccine. I know a few who would definitely refuse it. If, say, 20% of the population refused it (or never got round to having it) what effect would this have on our fight against the virus?
I`ve already laid Starmer for Next PM a while back, £100 @ 3.01.
The other bet that stands out to me at the moment is a Lay on Labour to win a Overall Majority at next GE, which I think is ridiculously short at 4.1.
Yes.
I can see Labour getting to 290 seats with a fair wind but getting to 326 seats is very tough.
It would need a Labour resurgence in Scotland, I find that unlikely.
That is undoubtedly true. The only hope of achieving 326 is if the Tories, as incumbents, take all the blame for the economic armageddon that follows Covid (never mind no -deal Brexit).
Or a massively split right-wing vote due to Farage etc.
That's also very unlikely.
You say that - but Laurence Fox has skin in the game now with RECLAIM. If we end up with soft Brexit and a multi year lockdown that could leave millions a-fuming and a-foaming and up for grabs.
But my serious question -
What is your vaccine prognosis viz timing and impact?
I've been thinking next summer and it ends the health crisis if not the economic and financial one. But I'm feeling slightly less optimistic these last few days for some reason that I can't quite put my finger on - perhaps reading all those gloomy posts from people on yesterday evening's thread.
Sorry, mine was one of the gloomier ones.
About Fox, if his project gets off the ground (a big if) he would be coming from a liberal perspective whereas Farage is more of a conservative I`d say. If it gets down to fight between the two to establish a new politcal force Farage would pulverise Fox into many pieces I`d suggest.
More likely because Farage is an experienced politician with many years of rabble rousing. Whereas Fox is that entitled Harrovian bloke off Lewis who found himself a new earner on QT.
News networks are reporting that the Biden team has asked the Debate Commission for a break every 30 minutes this evening. Both the Commission and the Republicans said NO. Presidential debates are uninterrupted, and the networks structure their pre- and post- coverage to squeeze in more breaks to make up for it. There will be no seats for the candidates on the stage.
I hope this is not true - Trump will make merry with this request - it implies a weakness/frailty in Biden.
Well, you - as a presumably typical Tory - are always talking about sending the tanks into Scotland and the task forces to invade Spain.
I don't believe HYUFD is a "typical Tory".
Well I am more so than you are certainly
I don't claim to be typical.
I am me. I don't want to be typical.
How typical is that?
Good question.
My philosophy is one where I fundamentally believe in individualism and not communitarianism.
As such fitting in a mould as HYUFD tries to do as a "typical Tory" seems to be rather counter-intuitive to my philosophy.
Indeed you are more a Liberal or libertarian than a traditional Tory.
The Tory Party was originally the party of the monarchy, landed gentry and the Anglican church and as you are a republican atheist you can never really be a true Tory
It's still the party of the landed gentry. At the risk of being crass and condescending - if you struggle to choose between Labour and Tory you ain't no landed gentry.
I`ve already laid Starmer for Next PM a while back, £100 @ 3.01.
The other bet that stands out to me at the moment is a Lay on Labour to win a Overall Majority at next GE, which I think is ridiculously short at 4.1.
Yes.
I can see Labour getting to 290 seats with a fair wind but getting to 326 seats is very tough.
It would need a Labour resurgence in Scotland, I find that unlikely.
That is undoubtedly true. The only hope of achieving 326 is if the Tories, as incumbents, take all the blame for the economic armageddon that follows Covid (never mind no -deal Brexit).
It seems that some people are wishing for Armageddon following Brexit and COVID.
The idea we might actually enter a strong growth period post transition and post vaccine seems unthinkable and unfortunate to many
It's unthinkable only because I can't see (as someone with an economics degree and a businessman) how it actually occurs...
I’d keep quiet about your businessman, or we’ll all be wanting one.
Well, you - as a presumably typical Tory - are always talking about sending the tanks into Scotland and the task forces to invade Spain.
I don't believe HYUFD is a "typical Tory".
Well I am more so than you are certainly
I don't claim to be typical.
I am me. I don't want to be typical.
How typical is that?
Good question.
My philosophy is one where I fundamentally believe in individualism and not communitarianism.
As such fitting in a mould as HYUFD tries to do as a "typical Tory" seems to be rather counter-intuitive to my philosophy.
Indeed you are more a Liberal or libertarian than a traditional Tory.
The Tory Party was originally the party of the monarchy, landed gentry and the Anglican church and as you are a republican atheist you can never really be a true Tory
Indeed. But the Conservatives have long appealed to traditional liberals and libertarians. If the Conservatives only won the votes of traditional landed gentry like yourself then the party would long since have faded away to being a tiny minority of the electorate.
Since the Liberal Democrats are as a truly liberal as a Democratic Republic is truly a democracy that leaves me nowhere else to go.
Davey is more in the traditional Liberal mould but yes I do agree both the Tories and Labour need to appeal beyond their conservative and socialist core vote to win enough liberal support to win a general election
We were reminded in one session at the recent Lib Dem Conference about the standpoint of Jo Grimond on this: I don´t like the Tories and I don´t trust Labour. Nowadays one might well add: I don´t trust the Tories either.
Poor old HY is totally confused on this. There is no way that the despicable, shambolic and oppressive Johnson-Cummings government could ever appeal to liberals.
It did for many last year when the alternative was Corbyn
I`ve already laid Starmer for Next PM a while back, £100 @ 3.01.
The other bet that stands out to me at the moment is a Lay on Labour to win a Overall Majority at next GE, which I think is ridiculously short at 4.1.
Yes.
I can see Labour getting to 290 seats with a fair wind but getting to 326 seats is very tough.
It would need a Labour resurgence in Scotland, I find that unlikely.
That is undoubtedly true. The only hope of achieving 326 is if the Tories, as incumbents, take all the blame for the economic armageddon that follows Covid (never mind no -deal Brexit).
It seems that some people are wishing for Armageddon following Brexit and COVID.
The idea we might actually enter a strong growth period post transition and post vaccine seems unthinkable and unfortunate to many
It's unthinkable only because I can't see (as someone with an economics degree and a businessman) how it actually occurs...
I’d keep quiet about your businessman, or we’ll all be wanting one.
Millennials like me are left without businessmen. Typical.
I`ve already laid Starmer for Next PM a while back, £100 @ 3.01.
The other bet that stands out to me at the moment is a Lay on Labour to win a Overall Majority at next GE, which I think is ridiculously short at 4.1.
Yes.
I can see Labour getting to 290 seats with a fair wind but getting to 326 seats is very tough.
It would need a Labour resurgence in Scotland, I find that unlikely.
That is undoubtedly true. The only hope of achieving 326 is if the Tories, as incumbents, take all the blame for the economic armageddon that follows Covid (never mind no -deal Brexit).
Or a massively split right-wing vote due to Farage etc.
That's also very unlikely.
You say that - but Laurence Fox has skin in the game now with RECLAIM. If we end up with soft Brexit and a multi year lockdown that could leave millions a-fuming and a-foaming and up for grabs.
But my serious question -
What is your vaccine prognosis viz timing and impact?
I've been thinking next summer and it ends the health crisis if not the economic and financial one. But I'm feeling slightly less optimistic these last few days for some reason that I can't quite put my finger on - perhaps reading all those gloomy posts from people on yesterday evening's thread.
Predictions are really difficult, especially about the future and especially about vaccines. "We've thrown so much money at so many, one of them has to come good" is an optimistic argument, and bear in mind that "50% effective and lasts for a year" is regarded as a success vaccinologically speaking.
Also we don`t know the percentage of people that would refuse a vaccine. I know a few who would definitely refuse it. If, say, 20% of the population refused it (or never got round to having it) what effect would this have on our fight against the virus?
Yes. Vaccines are bloody tricky things*, especially new ones designed in a hurry. The yebbuttherscience enthusiasts know that you are meant to be anti-anti-vaxxer, but being exceptionally low risk anyway I am not going to claw my way to the front of the queue when the first candidate is released. I'd rather have a BCG booster.
I never worked out what the moonshot policy was supposed to be. I actually think Osborne is slightly wrong on that point - more test capacity would be great, of course, but the more important thing is to target tests better, and particularly to trace backwards to find out where outbreaks are occurring, so as to inform policy measures.
I`ve already laid Starmer for Next PM a while back, £100 @ 3.01.
The other bet that stands out to me at the moment is a Lay on Labour to win a Overall Majority at next GE, which I think is ridiculously short at 4.1.
Yes.
I can see Labour getting to 290 seats with a fair wind but getting to 326 seats is very tough.
It would need a Labour resurgence in Scotland, I find that unlikely.
That is undoubtedly true. The only hope of achieving 326 is if the Tories, as incumbents, take all the blame for the economic armageddon that follows Covid (never mind no -deal Brexit).
Or a massively split right-wing vote due to Farage etc.
That's also very unlikely.
You say that - but Laurence Fox has skin in the game now with RECLAIM. If we end up with soft Brexit and a multi year lockdown that could leave millions a-fuming and a-foaming and up for grabs.
But my serious question -
What is your vaccine prognosis viz timing and impact?
I've been thinking next summer and it ends the health crisis if not the economic and financial one. But I'm feeling slightly less optimistic these last few days for some reason that I can't quite put my finger on - perhaps reading all those gloomy posts from people on yesterday evening's thread.
Predictions are really difficult, especially about the future and especially about vaccines. "We've thrown so much money at so many, one of them has to come good" is an optimistic argument, and bear in mind that "50% effective and lasts for a year" is regarded as a success vaccinologically speaking.
Also we don`t know the percentage of people that would refuse a vaccine. I know a few who would definitely refuse it. If, say, 20% of the population refused it (or never got round to having it) what effect would this have on our fight against the virus?
Yes. Vaccines are bloody tricky things*, especially new ones designed in a hurry. The yebbuttherscience enthusiasts know that you are meant to be anti-anti-vaxxer, but being exceptionally low risk anyway I am not going to claw my way to the front of the queue when the first candidate is released. I'd rather have a BCG booster.
*They are homeopathic, apart from anything.
I'll be at the front of the queue, so you don't have to be. You're welcome.
Well, you - as a presumably typical Tory - are always talking about sending the tanks into Scotland and the task forces to invade Spain.
Scotland is British territory, it is up to us to sort out and if we want to ban indyref2 until a generation has elapsed since 2014 that is up to us.
Gibraltar is also British territory we have a right to defend from invasion as Kuwait needed to be defended from Iraqi invasion in 1990
Who is this 'us' of whom you speak?
The UK government elected by UK voters last year and which Scotland decided by 55% to continue to have represent them in the 'once in a generation' 2014 referendum
Aka a UK government elected by a minority of UK voters holding to a position supported by a minority of Tory members, a minority of Tory voters and a minority of Scottish voters. Good luck with that.
Andalucia gets the 'rule of 6' amidst overwhelming evidence that family gatherings this summer have been the prime cause of the second wave in the region. One town in seville gets a 14 day lockdown.
Family gatherings seem to be the issue all over, but still people bang on about beer gardens and beaches.
I do suspect that many cases do originate at parties, clubs, etc but most revellersd head back to the family at some point.
And track and trace picks up the 4 family members you infected, but not the 30 people you infected on a pub crawl.
Of the countries I have visited, only Germany seems to be making effort to collect contact details; pretty much every restaurant or bar makes you fill out a form with your name, address and phone number, together with your date and time of visit.
The catch, it seems to me, is that you’ll be long gone before any symptoms come to light and you get your test result. How effective is Germany in making people who test positive then list out all the bars and restaurants they have visited, and contacting all of these to cross-reference all the other patrons at the same time?
I`ve already laid Starmer for Next PM a while back, £100 @ 3.01.
The other bet that stands out to me at the moment is a Lay on Labour to win a Overall Majority at next GE, which I think is ridiculously short at 4.1.
Yes.
I can see Labour getting to 290 seats with a fair wind but getting to 326 seats is very tough.
It would need a Labour resurgence in Scotland, I find that unlikely.
That is undoubtedly true. The only hope of achieving 326 is if the Tories, as incumbents, take all the blame for the economic armageddon that follows Covid (never mind no -deal Brexit).
Or a massively split right-wing vote due to Farage etc.
That's also very unlikely.
You say that - but Laurence Fox has skin in the game now with RECLAIM. If we end up with soft Brexit and a multi year lockdown that could leave millions a-fuming and a-foaming and up for grabs.
But my serious question -
What is your vaccine prognosis viz timing and impact?
I've been thinking next summer and it ends the health crisis if not the economic and financial one. But I'm feeling slightly less optimistic these last few days for some reason that I can't quite put my finger on - perhaps reading all those gloomy posts from people on yesterday evening's thread.
Predictions are really difficult, especially about the future and especially about vaccines. "We've thrown so much money at so many, one of them has to come good" is an optimistic argument, and bear in mind that "50% effective and lasts for a year" is regarded as a success vaccinologically speaking.
Also we don`t know the percentage of people that would refuse a vaccine. I know a few who would definitely refuse it. If, say, 20% of the population refused it (or never got round to having it) what effect would this have on our fight against the virus?
Yes. Vaccines are bloody tricky things*, especially new ones designed in a hurry. The yebbuttherscience enthusiasts know that you are meant to be anti-anti-vaxxer, but being exceptionally low risk anyway I am not going to claw my way to the front of the queue when the first candidate is released. I'd rather have a BCG booster.
*They are homeopathic, apart from anything.
I'll be at the front of the queue, so you don't have to be. You're welcome.
When we get back without you, I'll call your folks.
Well, you - as a presumably typical Tory - are always talking about sending the tanks into Scotland and the task forces to invade Spain.
I don't believe HYUFD is a "typical Tory".
Well I am more so than you are certainly
I don't claim to be typical.
I am me. I don't want to be typical.
How typical is that?
Good question.
My philosophy is one where I fundamentally believe in individualism and not communitarianism.
As such fitting in a mould as HYUFD tries to do as a "typical Tory" seems to be rather counter-intuitive to my philosophy.
Indeed you are more a Liberal or libertarian than a traditional Tory.
The Tory Party was originally the party of the monarchy, landed gentry and the Anglican church and as you are a republican atheist you can never really be a true Tory
Indeed. But the Conservatives have long appealed to traditional liberals and libertarians. If the Conservatives only won the votes of traditional landed gentry like yourself then the party would long since have faded away to being a tiny minority of the electorate.
Since the Liberal Democrats are as a truly liberal as a Democratic Republic is truly a democracy that leaves me nowhere else to go.
I guess a strong libertarian might consider UKIP? For Liberals, there is the Liberal Party, but they only stand a handful of candidates. So the LibDems it continues to be for me as they are more liberal than the Conservative Party and, of course, Labour.
I agree with you that the LibDems, since the SDP infiltration I think, have steadily moved in the Labour direction. I`m hoping that Davey will reposition the party equidistant between the two major parties and redefine liberalism along J S Mill lines.
The traditional tired old quip againt voting LibDem is the "wasted vote" jibe, but those making it don`t seem to realise that all votes are wasted in FPTP when there has never in history been a constituency whose outcome has been settled by one vote.
There is a difference between no individual vote having alone decided a contest, and it being wasted. Votes for the elected candidate aren’t wasted, since collectively they are needed to elect that person and those voters actually get represented (you could argue that a proportion of them, being the so-called ‘majority’, are wasted). All the votes for non elected candidates are of course wasted, which is one of the principal flaws in our crooked system.
I am a little disappointed that Gavin Williamson's burning of seditious books in English schools has been more or less ignored. My reading is great works like Robert Tressell's "The Ragged Trousered Philanthopists" will be consigned to the dustbin. English schoolchildren under Williamson's proposals will be able to read Mein Kampf at school but not Das Kapital.
When have English schoolchildren ever read Das Kapital? When has it ever been on the syllabus?
My school, at least in the sixth form political theory special lessons (as were Hobbes, Locke and Mill), though not as the book but in precis/summary form.
Does Gavin Williamson’s dictat apply to sixth form political theory? I doubt it somehow.
He has demanded the removal of anti-Capitalist books. I would suggest that being the case, Das Kapital is the daddy!
Whilst I have been saying for yonks that Gavin Williamson is useless, I feel compelled to point out that, no, he hasn't ' demanded the removal of anti-Capitalist books'.
If you are going to criticise politicians, you really do need to get basic facts right:
“Schools should not under any circumstances use resources produced by organisations that take extreme political stances on matters.
“This is the case even if the material itself is not extreme, as the use of it could imply endorsement or support of the organisation.”
The document adds: “Extreme political stances include, but are not limited to… a publicly stated desire to abolish or overthrow democracy, capitalism, or to end free and fair elections.”
Schools shouldn't be a place for propaganda, yes. At the same time banning material from.the classroom feels wrong. I can understand disallowing terrorist propaganda to be presented as fact in the classroom though so on balance it's a good measure. My worry is that politicians are in charge of drawing the line and it gives the ruling party of the day a lot of control over the curriculum without having to change it. How long until a future Labour government decided that all groups linked to slavery in the past should be barred from the curriculum so no more books from OUP etc...
All Government's should consider, carefully, how their future successors might play very different tunes on the instruments they are creating.
I`ve already laid Starmer for Next PM a while back, £100 @ 3.01.
The other bet that stands out to me at the moment is a Lay on Labour to win a Overall Majority at next GE, which I think is ridiculously short at 4.1.
Yes.
I can see Labour getting to 290 seats with a fair wind but getting to 326 seats is very tough.
It would need a Labour resurgence in Scotland, I find that unlikely.
That is undoubtedly true. The only hope of achieving 326 is if the Tories, as incumbents, take all the blame for the economic armageddon that follows Covid (never mind no -deal Brexit).
Or a massively split right-wing vote due to Farage etc.
That's also very unlikely.
You say that - but Laurence Fox has skin in the game now with RECLAIM. If we end up with soft Brexit and a multi year lockdown that could leave millions a-fuming and a-foaming and up for grabs.
But my serious question -
What is your vaccine prognosis viz timing and impact?
I've been thinking next summer and it ends the health crisis if not the economic and financial one. But I'm feeling slightly less optimistic these last few days for some reason that I can't quite put my finger on - perhaps reading all those gloomy posts from people on yesterday evening's thread.
Predictions are really difficult, especially about the future and especially about vaccines. "We've thrown so much money at so many, one of them has to come good" is an optimistic argument, and bear in mind that "50% effective and lasts for a year" is regarded as a success vaccinologically speaking.
Also we don`t know the percentage of people that would refuse a vaccine. I know a few who would definitely refuse it. If, say, 20% of the population refused it (or never got round to having it) what effect would this have on our fight against the virus?
In the US it is approaching half, polls suggest. There’s an item on CNN.com about it.
I think we underestimate the ability of people (particularly young people, who we are always scared of due to their youth, energy and physicality) to sniff out bullshit.
It's the "no-platforming", "safe space" and avoiding "discomfort" that I'm far more worried about than any specific text because, without it, anyone can be exposed to anything and work it out for themselves.
Yes, having your prejudices and views challenged is uncomfortable. That's precisely why they should be.
Well, you - as a presumably typical Tory - are always talking about sending the tanks into Scotland and the task forces to invade Spain.
Scotland is British territory, it is up to us to sort out and if we want to ban indyref2 until a generation has elapsed since 2014 that is up to us.
Gibraltar is also British territory we have a right to defend from invasion as Kuwait needed to be defended from Iraqi invasion in 1990
Who is this 'us' of whom you speak?
The UK government elected by UK voters last year and which Scotland decided by 55% to continue to have represent them in the 'once in a generation' 2014 referendum
Aka a UK government elected by a minority of UK voters holding to a position supported by a minority of Tory members, a minority of Tory voters and a minority of Scottish voters. Good luck with that.
Apparently Turkey just launched a direct attack on Armenia. A Turkish jet downing an Armenian jet in Armenian airspace. This could get hot quick.
Sadly in the coming war our dickless government will almost certainly side with Turkey.
Boris' great grandfather was Turkish, though he opposed the Turkish massacre of Armenians in and after WW1
That's not really the issue. I don't think people understand how much the Turkish government has ours and other Western governments by the short and curlies.
Where was the first place Boris ran off to as Foreign Minister?
Easy to say Mr Osborne. Step one involves unlimited resource of money and able people; step two entails government making a rapid agreement when agreement requires another party, the EU, to do the same when it is under no such obligation; step three requires telling the virus where it must stop in its effects, as well as the infinite resource to enforce unenforceable laws. Apart from those small difficulties George's suggestion are plain sailing.
I think we underestimate the ability of people (particularly young people, who we are always scared of due to their youth, energy and physicality) to sniff out bullshit.
It's the "no-platforming", "safe space" and avoiding "discomfort" that I'm far more worried about than any specific text because, without it, anyone can be exposed to anything and work it out for themselves.
Yes, having your prejudices and views challenged is uncomfortable. That's precisely why they should be.
Very, very well said.
Especially at universities that is precisely where challenging thoughts should be debated.
I never worked out what the moonshot policy was supposed to be. I actually think Osborne is slightly wrong on that point - more test capacity would be great, of course, but the more important thing is to target tests better, and particularly to trace backwards to find out where outbreaks are occurring, so as to inform policy measures.
The ‘moonshot’ ? Bollocks, basically.
At least one cheap, rapid antigen test is already available in bulk. The Harvard one is another, which could be manufactured very cheaply in bulk, quite quickly. The first could be deployed now.
Enough tests which give an immediate result could stop the disease in its tracks.
Osbourne is right about the resources, but they need to be spent wisely.
Yougov should employ me as a questions editor, they are fucking useless at it. Which titles? Who the fuck is Duchess Meghan anyway? If the question is about titles, isn't it a bit important to get that sort of detail right in the question itself?
I just wish they'd get the divorce in quick before Harry damages himself so badly he can't go back to his captain-generalling afterwards while Meg takes the White House.
I think we underestimate the ability of people (particularly young people, who we are always scared of due to their youth, energy and physicality) to sniff out bullshit.
It's the "no-platforming", "safe space" and avoiding "discomfort" that I'm far more worried about than any specific text because, without it, anyone can be exposed to anything and work it out for themselves.
Yes, having your prejudices and views challenged is uncomfortable. That's precisely why they should be.
I think the problem is that this type of propaganda is making it into classrooms and lecture halls and then being presented as fact by teachers and lecturers. Yes, young people have bullshit detectors but they are also impressionable and if their lecturer with years of experience presents SWP literature as fact and says that communism is great and it just hasn't really been tried properly lots of them will accept it.
This post suggests that Ladbrokes (or maybe another bookie) are running a "bingo" mention market on tonight's Presidential Debate but I haven't been able to locate this ... could Richard or another PBer kindly direct me please?
Well, you - as a presumably typical Tory - are always talking about sending the tanks into Scotland and the task forces to invade Spain.
Scotland is British territory, it is up to us to sort out and if we want to ban indyref2 until a generation has elapsed since 2014 that is up to us.
Gibraltar is also British territory we have a right to defend from invasion as Kuwait needed to be defended from Iraqi invasion in 1990
Who is this 'us' of whom you speak?
The UK government elected by UK voters last year and which Scotland decided by 55% to continue to have represent them in the 'once in a generation' 2014 referendum
Aka a UK government elected by a minority of UK voters holding to a position supported by a minority of Tory members, a minority of Tory voters and a minority of Scottish voters. Good luck with that.
This time round the SNP would not get away with vagueness about currency, the border issue will be in red flashing lights due to the Ireland problem, and a lively discussion about debt, deficit and English subsidy will be centre stage.
Cue SKS winning power in a coalition with the SNP based on a promise of a referendum which the unionists will win.
Yougov should employ me as a questions editor, they are fucking useless at it. Which titles? Who the fuck is Duchess Meghan anyway? If the question is about titles, isn't it a bit important to get that sort of detail right in the question itself?
I just wish they'd get the divorce in quick before Harry damages himself so badly he can't go back to his captain-generalling afterwards while Meg takes the White House.
Personally I would let them keep the Duke and Duchess titles but remove the HRH as they are no longer doing royal duties
Total lack of support among the over 25s already. It won't be long before they have the same resonance as the Duke and Duchess of Windsor. (Who were they? asks everyone under about 50.)
I think we underestimate the ability of people (particularly young people, who we are always scared of due to their youth, energy and physicality) to sniff out bullshit.
It's the "no-platforming", "safe space" and avoiding "discomfort" that I'm far more worried about than any specific text because, without it, anyone can be exposed to anything and work it out for themselves.
Yes, having your prejudices and views challenged is uncomfortable. That's precisely why they should be.
I think the problem is that this type of propaganda is making it into classrooms and lecture halls and then being presented as fact by teachers and lecturers. Yes, young people have bullshit detectors but they are also impressionable and if their lecturer with years of experience presents SWP literature as fact and says that communism is great and it just hasn't really been tried properly lots of them will accept it.
Also, things like XR use legitimate environmental concerns as cover to push their Marxist solutions. Again, it is the bad faith actors, as we have discussed before.
Number of people dying of COVID in the US yesterday? under 300. Population 300m plus.
Top ten killer with those numbers? really?
Are you really going to pull weekend effect numbers again. After the last time you tried it.
Shameless.
@contrarian is either stupid or deliberately trying to deceive, particularly having tried to do this previously. Maybe he should look at, oh I don't know, a typical Wednesday, Last 3 are: 1,116, 1013 and 1,211 deaths.
There's a lot of good there, but unfortunately he drops a clanger in his first point on testing.
A negative test for the Covid cannot be used as a get-out from isolation if you have symptoms or are a close contact of a positive case. It might be a false negative, or you may still be incubating the virus.
The test is used to identify more positive cases so that their contacts can also be traced and put into isolation. There have been lots of cases in Ireland of close contacts testing negative on their day zero test, going merrily about their business, and then testing positive on their day seven test - having risked spreading the infection on due to not isolating.
It's really frustrating that even someone relatively sensible, rational and one would have hoped intelligent and well-informed gets this important part of the basic public health approach of test, trace, isolate so wrong.
Sadly he's not alone. Starmer makes the same error. And yet, both have more merit than the present incumbents.
I think we underestimate the ability of people (particularly young people, who we are always scared of due to their youth, energy and physicality) to sniff out bullshit.
It's the "no-platforming", "safe space" and avoiding "discomfort" that I'm far more worried about than any specific text because, without it, anyone can be exposed to anything and work it out for themselves.
Yes, having your prejudices and views challenged is uncomfortable. That's precisely why they should be.
I think the problem is that this type of propaganda is making it into classrooms and lecture halls and then being presented as fact by teachers and lecturers. Yes, young people have bullshit detectors but they are also impressionable and if their lecturer with years of experience presents SWP literature as fact and says that communism is great and it just hasn't really been tried properly lots of them will accept it.
I imagine that university lecturers are on average left wing (not really in my field of economics TBH), but the idea that they are passing off SWP propaganda as fact is just laughable. The History Man is a great book but is a work of fiction. Banning kids from reading left leaning books is not just a chilling nod to far right dictatorships, it is also a classic example of the no platforming and cancel culture that the Right claim to hate.
Comments
If so, quite a change. A long time ago, but most of mine were free market fundamentalists.
They didn't brainwash me into idiocy.
Since the Liberal Democrats are as a truly liberal as a Democratic Republic is truly a democracy that leaves me nowhere else to go.
I am not for one moment suggesting ISIS handbooks should be available in school libraries, but the works of Marx and Engels, yes.
Are they not?
Perhaps leading to some of the loonier views in Parliament and the media nowadays?
I agree with you that the LibDems, since the SDP infiltration I think, have steadily moved in the Labour direction. I`m hoping that Davey will reposition the party equidistant between the two major parties and redefine liberalism along J S Mill lines.
The traditional tired old quip againt voting LibDem is the "wasted vote" jibe, but those making it don`t seem to realise that all votes are wasted in FPTP when there has never in history been a constituency whose outcome has been settled by one vote.
A case in Roscommon where a publican tested positive, but didn't have symptoms so thought it was okay to open their pub for an 18th birthday party - infecting 25 others.
In County Cork, 70 of the 350 cases in the last two weeks have been traced back to restaurants and pubs.
I don't see him resigning any time soon. He is rather indifferent to indignity, the sense that things are going badly is likely quite normal for him, and he has not tended to quit. If he has long COVID, a failing relationship, terrible politics, it's all grist to the mill. I don't see it.
So, the Tory party will do for him? Who are the Tory party, here? MPs who hold the Conservative whip can write a letter to the 1922 chair. And those that don't hold the whip? Truth is, Boris holds a voter suppression card here, and has shown willing to use it.
On the other hand, voter removal also applies to fending off Keir - Scotland is the key. A legal right to Sindyref2, Boris's majority to defend, soddenly gets around 50 higher.
Of course if he goes down these routes to defend his position, then it is a little like mining goodwill from the bottom.of a cliff - as you dig out one lot of disloyal Tory MPs, more drop from above until the whole edifice collapses, lose the Union, screw up Brexit so badly - perhaps Keir wins the GE anyway sans-Ecosse.
Plenty of people suffered the first lockdown, but are not interested in respecting the second
Unique and random are two totally different concepts.
Sadly in the coming war our dickless government will almost certainly side with Turkey.
Some say those in Scotland and Sweden never forget.
“Risk of reinfection was estimated at 0.01% (95% CI: 0.01-0.02%) and incidence rate of “Risk of reinfection was estimated at 0.01% (95% CI: 0.01-0.02%) and incidence rate of reinfection was estimated at 0.36 (95% CI: 0.28-0.47) per 10,000 person-weeks.
Conclusions: SARS-CoV-2 reinfection can occur but is a rare phenomenon..”
Poor old HY is totally confused on this. There is no way that the despicable, shambolic and oppressive Johnson-Cummings government could ever appeal to liberals.
But my serious question -
What is your vaccine prognosis viz timing and impact?
I've been thinking next summer and it ends the health crisis if not the economic and financial one. But I'm feeling slightly less optimistic these last few days for some reason that I can't quite put my finger on - perhaps reading all those gloomy posts from people on yesterday evening's thread.
'Tax' at 1.04 is pretty good 4% return in a day!
Also 1.25 on the two candidates not elbow-bumping, 1.05 on them not shaking hands, 1.1 on Trump not wearing a mask,
About Fox, if his project gets off the ground (a big if) he would be coming from a liberal perspective whereas Farage is more of a conservative I`d say. If it gets down to fight between the two to establish a new politcal force Farage would pulverise Fox into many pieces I`d suggest.
https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/here-are-three-concrete-steps-the-government-isn-t-taking-that-it-should-a4558731.html
Whereas Fox is that entitled Harrovian bloke off Lewis who found himself a new earner on QT.
*They are homeopathic, apart from anything.
Number of people dying of COVID in the US yesterday? under 300. Population 300m plus.
Top ten killer with those numbers? really?
The catch, it seems to me, is that you’ll be long gone before any symptoms come to light and you get your test result. How effective is Germany in making people who test positive then list out all the bars and restaurants they have visited, and contacting all of these to cross-reference all the other patrons at the same time?
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/long-shadow-1976-swine-flu-vaccine-fiasco-180961994/
Shameless.
It's the "no-platforming", "safe space" and avoiding "discomfort" that I'm far more worried about than any specific text because, without it, anyone can be exposed to anything and work it out for themselves.
Yes, having your prejudices and views challenged is uncomfortable. That's precisely why they should be.
Where was the first place Boris ran off to as Foreign Minister?
We've now hit that forecast.
Especially at universities that is precisely where challenging thoughts should be debated.
At least one cheap, rapid antigen test is already available in bulk. The Harvard one is another, which could be manufactured very cheaply in bulk, quite quickly.
The first could be deployed now.
Enough tests which give an immediate result could stop the disease in its tracks.
Osbourne is right about the resources, but they need to be spent wisely.
I just wish they'd get the divorce in quick before Harry damages himself so badly he can't go back to his captain-generalling afterwards while Meg takes the White House.
Cue SKS winning power in a coalition with the SNP based on a promise of a referendum which the unionists will win.
A negative test for the Covid cannot be used as a get-out from isolation if you have symptoms or are a close contact of a positive case. It might be a false negative, or you may still be incubating the virus.
The test is used to identify more positive cases so that their contacts can also be traced and put into isolation. There have been lots of cases in Ireland of close contacts testing negative on their day zero test, going merrily about their business, and then testing positive on their day seven test - having risked spreading the infection on due to not isolating.
It's really frustrating that even someone relatively sensible, rational and one would have hoped intelligent and well-informed gets this important part of the basic public health approach of test, trace, isolate so wrong.
Sadly he's not alone. Starmer makes the same error. And yet, both have more merit than the present incumbents.
Banning kids from reading left leaning books is not just a chilling nod to far right dictatorships, it is also a classic example of the no platforming and cancel culture that the Right claim to hate.