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Order of succession. The odds against Sir Keir Starmer being next Prime Minister – politicalbetting.
Order of succession. The odds against Sir Keir Starmer being next Prime Minister – politicalbetting.com
Labour supporters were euphoric at the weekend with the news of the first opinion poll in over a year showing them in the lead. Is this a temporary highpoint or the start of a trend? Might Labour be on course to win the next general election?
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Oh and yes - SKS isn't the next PM the Tories will be replacing Boris some point in the next 12 months.
I blame @rcs1000
https://twitter.com/AlistairHaimes/status/1310902945999998976
What restrictions are required? is the question. Unless you belong to the party-like-nothing-is-happening brigade.
Note that the "Swedish Solution" involves restrictions as well - just different ones.
'China Virus' £30 @ 1.73
'Climate Change' £30@1.33
'Law and Order' £30@1.44
'Putin' £25@2.0
.. but I've also sold 'China Virus' £5 a mention at 5 on Sporting Index (they have spreads on the number of times a few phrases/words are used).
https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1223695770085396481
COVID 19 is not even in the top ten of UK killers right now.
A handful of deaths a day. Most of those who get it have no symptoms.
Why should students have best years of their lives ruined so a person of 80 or more with two co-morbidities can eke out a few more months of life?
- When does/did production start for each of the vaccines orders by the government?
- What is the production rate for each vaccine?
- What is the projected delivery time for x amount of each vaccine? - assuming production ramp ups etc, when will x amount of vaccine actually be ready?
Make no mistake. They will always find an excuse. We will be living like this until we decide to break out of it.
https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1310426174091333633
Back to normal next summer is probably a bit optimistic (not utterly impossible).
On the other hand, the UK seems better provided with contracted supplies of various alternatives than most other countries, so we will be ahead of the rest of the world.
A companion of mass, cheap antigen testing (which I think is more immediately significant than vaccines) followed by large scale vaccine rollout starting next year (and, FWIW, I have a fairly high degree of confidence that at least one of the vaccines will prove very effective) ought to see a return to normal(ish) life next year.
And remember that the better the coverage of your testing, the better targeted the initial vaccination program will be (it will take quite some time to vaccinate everyone).
Indeed, may even be "minimal cases" rather than "deaths", where cases actually means positive test result.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=41&LAB=38&LIB=6&Brexit=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=20.5&SCOTLAB=17.4&SCOTLIB=5.5&SCOTBrexit=1.1&SCOTGreen=1.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=53.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019
All the red kippers have already peeled off to the Tories, and have no intention of returning to Labour, so those would be easy pickings for The New Blackshirts. Not many voters remaining loyal to Labour in 2019 are likely to go down that road.
Corporations and high earners will also not like his proposed corporation tax and capital gains tax rise and he will clearly be pro union rather than business
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/5l5pygu8gt/TimesResults_200924_VI_Trackers_W.pdf
(Except in the US sense, where anything that isn't Republican policy of the day is so described. And, of course, Eisenhower's polices, for example, might have been more accurately described as such...)
I was also a member at Aberystwyth when I did my Masters which is a bit more traditional
Certainly the last time I visited, a number of years ago, lots of very impressive new buildings with corporate sponsors.
We are already being told a vaccine will not be a silver bullet by the medical establishment. We are going to need Johnson out and Cummings with him to break free of this authoritarianism. Johnson stinks of Cummings's arrogance.
A brand new political party called RECLAIM. So called because it's mission is "to reclaim British values" from the "cesspit of wokeness into which we are falling" - this last bit in quotes but is in fact my own work.
https://news.sky.com/story/laurence-fox-controversial-actor-launches-political-party-to-fight-the-culture-wars-12083457
It was hard enough for people to stick to things for 3 months. I am sure this carrot just out of reach is an approach being offered by the behavioural insight people as a way to keep people thinking I will just do this for another few weeks. Hence why the talk of back to normal for Christmas, to give people some hope.
Fantasy.
Had Major not emerged Hurd would likely have beaten Heseltine when Major went
I agree with the Header that 3/1 Starmer next PM is a pisspoor price.
Up to now I've held the view that Johnson will stick around for years - people usually do when you'd rather they didn't - but the photo of him at the top here makes me less convinced of this.
Does that look like a man on top of his brief calmly steering the ship of state through the choppiest waters encountered for 80 years? I'm not sure it does.
“One of the other issues is that people with existing mental health conditions have been abandoned with existing support services closed. See, for instance, this - https://www.ocduk.org/tag/david-veale/ - from Professor Veale in relation to OCD, a condition I know from personal experience is extremely distressing to those suffering from it and frightening to those around the sufferer.
I cannot begin to imagine how hard the last six months have been for sufferers and their families with no end in sight. And the fatality rate - ie suicides - for those with it if they do not get help is high.
There is so much hidden suffering around.”
I'm laying him too off the back of this.
He's building a wall, and Kent is going to pay for it...
Since the zero covid (lockdown until there is no more COVID) was never possible in this country, the question always was - what happens *after* the lockdown.
But in general you should be wary of any opinion poll subsample where the population is noticeably different from the overall population. The polling companies make an effort to ensure that the full sample is representative and any large discrepanceies can be weighted post hoc. For subsamples this not usually feasible.
James Forsyth has written that Farage's former acolytes are trying to get him to decide if he wants to lead. I guess he is waiting to see how brexit gets decided.
Simply - they armed the opposition to the Serbs and gave them air support. When these "allies" started committing war crime (something that was inevitable), the units in question were cut off from support and left to be slaughtered by Serb counter attacks.
Hurd specifically opposed anything being done to strength the opposition to Serb ethnic cleansing. Or indeed stop it.
His Churchillian shtick and the desire to be seen having led the "victory" over the virus in his speeches is obvious.
Britain does sell arms abroad but not regularly to one side only in the middle of a civil war to prolong the conflict
I`ve already laid Starmer for Next PM a while back, £100 @ 3.01.
The other bet that stands out to me at the moment is a Lay on Labour to win a Overall Majority at next GE, which I think is ridiculously short at 4.1.