Wish folk would stop calling it a curfew. It is shutting the pubs at 10. A curfew is when you aren't allowed out. Usually enforced by armed patrols.
Not being able to visit other peoples houses is not lockdown either.
Indeed. We never had lockdown. My friend was trapped in Cyprus. They had to send a text to the Police to leave the house, with a reason, once a day. And wait up to an hour for permission. And be given a set route and time. That was a lockdown.
When we finally got to "lockdown", despite all the screeching about what if i am a freelance journalist will the rozzers hard stop my motor, i think the rules were pretty fair e.g alllowed out to exercise. As you say lots of places it was stay in your home, period, end of, except for food / medicine.
That was spain for quite a while but they did start to relax working restrictions after Easter. Then lost the plot in July. Madrid remains a problem compounded by differences between three levels of government who seem not to be able to come to a common agreed plan.
No official figures at weekends, Monday will show an uplift and the daily figures end up being updated when all the data is in. In many communities the rate is falling just hoping they don’t ease up on the current rules which are entirely livable with (for a 67 yo) who’s home by eight at the latest.
@MaxPB - move to Surrey, Sussex or Hampshire. You'll never see a police officer and we don't talk to our neighbours or care what they are doing.
A friend in the sticks told me the following story - the police weren't interested in a spate of garden shed/farm building robberies.
So the local hedge funding owning guy hired some rent-a-cops to patrol the village. The police then devoted considerable time and effort to harassing the rent-a-cops, claiming that they were pretending to be real policemen.
Apparently, the police finally showed up at hedge fund guys house and stated that the rent-a-cop thing was not on, and they would not stop detaining them etc. So his plan wasn't going to work and he might as well stop.... His response was "Got you down the village, hasn't it?".....
Sigh. Makes me nostalgic for the days when we used to get Reggie and Ronnie to sort out our little local difficulties. They were good value for money too. Bet we paid much less than your hedgefunder.
Apparently all they were doing was security guarding - driving round in their little car with vaguely police like paint scheme. It's not like he'd hired mercenaries or something.
But it winds the police up....
The protection racket just isn't what it used to be. Now when I were a lad......
...we would have indulged in merciless use of sarcasm, dramatic irony, hyperbole and nailing peoples heads to the floor. We were vicious. Vicious but fair.....
I'm always curious - why do people think that if you withdraw policing, the local people will just say thank you?
Like the lawyers of my acquaintance who wanted all the harassment of... shop lifters to be stopped. So there would literally nothing done to shop lifters. Now, I'm sure that many shop[ lifters are actually sad cases etc. But what do you think shop keepers will do in the circumstance?
It's almost like "policing by consent" is a contract between 2 parties.....
No official figures at weekends, Monday will show an uplift and the daily figures end up being updated when all the data is in. In many communities the rate is falling just hoping they don’t ease up on the current rules which are entirely livable with (for a 67 yo) who’s home by eight at the latest.
But that graph dropped off a cliff a few days ago by looks of it.
Wish folk would stop calling it a curfew. It is shutting the pubs at 10. A curfew is when you aren't allowed out. Usually enforced by armed patrols.
Not being able to visit other peoples houses is not lockdown either.
Indeed. We never had lockdown. My friend was trapped in Cyprus. They had to send a text to the Police to leave the house, with a reason, once a day. And wait up to an hour for permission. And be given a set route and time. That was a lockdown.
When we finally got to "lockdown", despite all the screeching about what if i am a freelance journalist will the rozzers hard stop my motor or what about my marathon training, i think the rules were pretty fair e.g alllowed out to exercise. As you say lots of places it was stay in your home, period, end of, except for food / medicine.
I've been places with real curfews. Never thought I would be glad to be *in* the car with the secret police.
My Dems Ohio bet is now in profit so very much so. Polling has been good for Biden there and the troubles the local GOP find themselves in are enourmas.
So Ohio goes, so goes the nation.
The mere fact Ohio is in play is very bad for Trump.
No official figures at weekends, Monday will show an uplift and the daily figures end up being updated when all the data is in. In many communities the rate is falling just hoping they don’t ease up on the current rules which are entirely livable with (for a 67 yo) who’s home by eight at the latest.
But that graph dropped off a cliff a few days ago by looks of it.
4,122 new cases and 114 new deaths in Spain. Data are provisional and subject to change. From Sept. 23 onward, figures for daily new cases only include cases already validated by the Ministry of Health in the daily PDF report. Since the validation process takes time to complete, additional cases are expected to be added retroactively once the weekly historical dataset revision is released by the Ministry of Health on Friday, Oct. 2. Data up to Sept. 23 reflects the latest release of the official "Historical Series of Cases by Autonomous Community" dataset released by the Ministry of Health.
Doesn’t explain the large drop I’d assume a reporting failure but it may just be topping out over the whole country.
No official figures at weekends, Monday will show an uplift and the daily figures end up being updated when all the data is in. In many communities the rate is falling just hoping they don’t ease up on the current rules which are entirely livable with (for a 67 yo) who’s home by eight at the latest.
But that graph dropped off a cliff a few days ago by looks of it.
It's a worldometers graph. About as valuable as a promise from Mike Pence.
I got my Flu Vaccine at the drive through centre today. Without a doubt this is they way they should do mass vaccination drives now. It was very efficient. Took me ten minutes from arrival to getting the jab, then I sat for fifteen minutes listening to my audiobook to make sure I didn't have any weird reaction.
My Dems Ohio bet is now in profit so very much so. Polling has been good for Biden there and the troubles the local GOP find themselves in are enourmas.
So Ohio goes, so goes the nation.
The mere fact Ohio is in play is very bad for Trump.
Ohio was supposedly in play last time.
Take a look at Trump's schedule of campaign stops. He has done 14 in person rallies - New Hampshire, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Florida, Virginia and Minnesota and multiple trips to Ohio, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. So, not only swing states he won last time but also swing states he didn't (the official explanation for doing the VA trip is that the airport is close to Northern NC to enable him to campaign to voters there but...)
Now look at the crowds that turn out for his rallies. Compare that with Biden's.
Now also compare with multiple sources - both Democrats and Republicans - claiming Biden's lead with Hispanics is less than Clinton's, and possibly the same is happening with the Black vote.
Now consider that despite amount of extra cash Biden has spent on advertising compared with Trump and he still can't see an acceleration of his lead (and possibly a fall).
I know a lot of people have a go (wrongly I think) at HYFUD for pointing out what Trafalgar and Rasmussen say but - and you are not one of them Peter - lap up every ABC / WP poll that has Biden at +10
It's one thing putting a few quid on a Biden win but going all out on him having a blowout victory at this stage looks reckless.
No official figures at weekends, Monday will show an uplift and the daily figures end up being updated when all the data is in. In many communities the rate is falling just hoping they don’t ease up on the current rules which are entirely livable with (for a 67 yo) who’s home by eight at the latest.
But that graph dropped off a cliff a few days ago by looks of it.
4,122 new cases and 114 new deaths in Spain. Data are provisional and subject to change. From Sept. 23 onward, figures for daily new cases only include cases already validated by the Ministry of Health in the daily PDF report. Since the validation process takes time to complete, additional cases are expected to be added retroactively once the weekly historical dataset revision is released by the Ministry of Health on Friday, Oct. 2. Data up to Sept. 23 reflects the latest release of the official "Historical Series of Cases by Autonomous Community" dataset released by the Ministry of Health.
Doesn’t explain the large drop I’d assume a reporting failure but it may just be topping out over the whole country.
Ah - so they are delaying reporting for reconciliation.
Betting Tip: North Carolina looks too long for Biden.
Trump has had one lead in the last 8 polls. The Dem momentum in the early.voting is maintained.
It should be a straight 50/50 at worst for Biden but you can get him @2.2 which seems a great price to me.
Correct, although personally I won't bother. If he takes S Carolina Biden wins big and I clean up on the spreads (which incidentally have moved significantly towards Biden since the value vis-a-vis Betfair was highlighted here.)
I am a simple man of modest means so I do not do Spread Betting
If you read the few lines under the picture, its the usual could, might, might, could stuff. May contain nuts, but no facts.
The i these days isn't much better than the Express for these types of headlines. The other day it was along the lines of "experts say government policy is totally wrong"...by experts they had one academic. The headline would make you think the whole of SAGE had come out and said this.
Trump is losing the plot if he thinks terminating the ACA and overturning Roe v Wade are vote winning messages . He seems to think he can expand his 46% of 2016 on that message which is delusional . His base might lap that up but it will drive even more suburban voters away .
Posted about this earlier. Apparently said algorithm says more new housing will be demanded in the leafy shires of the SE than in Northern brownfield sites. Whoever would have suspected such an extraordinary turn of events?
LOL....in the hand egg a player was just showboating his way into the endzone as he was totally in the clear and the defender got back and smashed the ball out of his hands.
So, the vaccine cavalry may not be arriving in New Year.
If true, then the new government strategy of trying to suppress the virus as far as possible until it arrives is untenable.
Quite, a structured approach to making normal life as safe as possible is needed, it shouldn’t be a free for all with no rules but the most effective Ones applied rigorously. It probably means the performing arts are stuffed as will be night clubs and there will still be restrictions around group numbers but the indiscriminate application of local shutdowns needs to end and a UK wide consistent levels established.
People who voted for the "Building houses en masse party": "Oh no I didn't think they'd build houses en masse in my county!!!" Me: "Cement mixer go brrrrr"
No official figures at weekends, Monday will show an uplift and the daily figures end up being updated when all the data is in. In many communities the rate is falling just hoping they don’t ease up on the current rules which are entirely livable with (for a 67 yo) who’s home by eight at the latest.
But that graph dropped off a cliff a few days ago by looks of it.
4,122 new cases and 114 new deaths in Spain. Data are provisional and subject to change. From Sept. 23 onward, figures for daily new cases only include cases already validated by the Ministry of Health in the daily PDF report. Since the validation process takes time to complete, additional cases are expected to be added retroactively once the weekly historical dataset revision is released by the Ministry of Health on Friday, Oct. 2. Data up to Sept. 23 reflects the latest release of the official "Historical Series of Cases by Autonomous Community" dataset released by the Ministry of Health.
Doesn’t explain the large drop I’d assume a reporting failure but it may just be topping out over the whole country.
Ah - so they are delaying reporting for reconciliation.
Yes but I’m more cynical about the numbers than I was originally I tend to judge the local situation by the control at the local health centre and hospital. It’s very relaxed at present and I get to test it twice every two weeks.
Posted about this earlier. Apparently said algorithm says more new housing will be demanded in the leafy shires of the SE than in Northern brownfield sites. Whoever would have suspected such an extraordinary turn of events?
Not sure why the algorithm is mutant. Or indeed why you need an algorithm.
My birthday today. Amongst the usual socks etc I have got Rage by Bob Woodward. Looks fun. Also got a new toy that sterilises your phone, keys etc with UV light. I remember reading a piece about the use of UV on here.
My birthday today. Amongst the usual socks etc I have got Rage by Bob Woodward. Looks fun. Also got a new toy that sterilises your phone, keys etc with UV light. I remember reading a piece about the use of UV on here.
My birthday today. Amongst the usual socks etc I have got Rage by Bob Woodward. Looks fun. Also got a new toy that sterilises your phone, keys etc with UV light. I remember reading a piece about the use of UV on here.
UV is widely used in water sterilization in the UK I believe. My kids bought me an Alexa but I assume she will,ignore me after a couple of weeks like the other women in my life (wife and three daughters) and happy birthday
If you read the few lines under the picture, its the usual could, might, might, could stuff. May contain nuts, but no facts.
The i these days isn't much better than the Express for these types of headlines. The other day it was along the lines of "experts say government policy is totally wrong"...by experts they had one academic. The headline would make you think the whole of SAGE had come out and said this.
It reminds me of the Cancer Story formula - used to get people to pick up papers. Either a Cancer! Scare! or a Cancer! Cure!. The trick was, apparently to have the headline and then walk it back from there.
My birthday today. Amongst the usual socks etc I have got Rage by Bob Woodward. Looks fun. Also got a new toy that sterilises your phone, keys etc with UV light. I remember reading a piece about the use of UV on here.
Careful with that UV device.
An embarrassing trip to A&E could result if you follow Trump's advice.
Betting Tip: North Carolina looks too long for Biden.
Trump has had one lead in the last 8 polls. The Dem momentum in the early.voting is maintained.
It should be a straight 50/50 at worst for Biden but you can get him @2.2 which seems a great price to me.
Correct, although personally I won't bother. If he takes S Carolina Biden wins big and I clean up on the spreads (which incidentally have moved significantly towards Biden since the value vis-a-vis Betfair was highlighted here.)
I am a simple man of modest means so I do not do Spread Betting
Yeah, makes me a bit nervous too, but I sold Trump at 245 EV. I think the modest losses with a Trump win are tolerable, and the upside for a Biden landslide quite attractive.
Posted about this earlier. Apparently said algorithm says more new housing will be demanded in the leafy shires of the SE than in Northern brownfield sites. Whoever would have suspected such an extraordinary turn of events?
Not sure why the algorithm is mutant. Or indeed why you need an algorithm.
An algorithm makes it "sciency". Therefore an unarguable fact of nature like the Laws of Thermodynamics. Not decided by Lefty civil servants swayed by Cultural Marxism or some such. At least that's how Dom seems to think. Methinks hundreds of Tory councillors may dissent from this orthodoxy.
Betting Tip: North Carolina looks too long for Biden.
Trump has had one lead in the last 8 polls. The Dem momentum in the early.voting is maintained.
It should be a straight 50/50 at worst for Biden but you can get him @2.2 which seems a great price to me.
The polls also show Biden doing quite well in Ohio and Iowa but almost everyone seems to think Trump will win them on the day itself. Seems to suggest that most people, on all sides, believe Trump will do better than the polls are suggesting.
Most shockingly it appears Trump was actually telling the truth about being under IRS audit for years. All the rest is what I think we all knew, he isn't anywhere near as wealthy as he says and aggressively uses every loophole possible to minimize his tax liabilities.
Wish folk would stop calling it a curfew. It is shutting the pubs at 10. A curfew is when you aren't allowed out. Usually enforced by armed patrols.
It's only half an hour earlier than closing time when I was young. No big deal.
Yes but what is the point of the 10pm closure? Is the virus afraid of the dark? Is it like not feeding gremlins after midnight? We've seen adverse side-effects but what is the desired main effect?
My birthday today. Amongst the usual socks etc I have got Rage by Bob Woodward. Looks fun. Also got a new toy that sterilises your phone, keys etc with UV light. I remember reading a piece about the use of UV on here.
UV is widely used in water sterilization in the UK I believe. My kids bought me an Alexa but I assume she will,ignore me after a couple of weeks like the other women in my life (wife and three daughters) and happy birthday
Betting Tip: North Carolina looks too long for Biden.
Trump has had one lead in the last 8 polls. The Dem momentum in the early.voting is maintained.
It should be a straight 50/50 at worst for Biden but you can get him @2.2 which seems a great price to me.
The polls also show Biden doing quite well in Ohio and Iowa but almost everyone seems to think Trump will win them on the day itself. Seems to suggest that most people, on all sides, believe Trump will do better than the polls are suggesting.
Ohio was a massive polling miss last time out. Just not as much commented on because the polls were still saying a Trump win but huge under predict.
Wish folk would stop calling it a curfew. It is shutting the pubs at 10. A curfew is when you aren't allowed out. Usually enforced by armed patrols.
It's only half an hour earlier than closing time when I was young. No big deal.
Yes but what is the point of the 10pm closure? Is the virus afraid of the dark? Is it like not feeding gremlins after midnight? We've seen adverse side-effects but what is the desired main effect?
My guess is that they were advised to shut pubs and restaurants, but feared a revolt. So thrashed out an unworkable compromise worse than either shutting or doing nothing. But that's just me.
Betting Tip: North Carolina looks too long for Biden.
Trump has had one lead in the last 8 polls. The Dem momentum in the early.voting is maintained.
It should be a straight 50/50 at worst for Biden but you can get him @2.2 which seems a great price to me.
The polls also show Biden doing quite well in Ohio and Iowa but almost everyone seems to think Trump will win them on the day itself. Seems to suggest that most people, on all sides, believe Trump will do better than the polls are suggesting.
The memories of 2016 I think are too fresh either in hurt or triumph for the majority of people. Even though the polling this time is nothing like last election so far, people are assuming a bias to Biden in state polls.
You have to enjoy the funny side of this nightmare. The funny side tonight is @MaxPB extolling the libertarian virtues of Switzerland, a country still with National Service, where you can't use a washing machine on a Sunday, or cross the road except on a green pedestrian signal even if there is not a car in sight, and where the police may visit you if your washing is hung out untidily.
You have to enjoy the funny side of this nightmare. The funny side tonight is @MaxPB extolling the libertarian virtues of Switzerland, a country still with National Service, where you can't use a washing machine on a Sunday, or cross the road except on a green pedestrian signal even if there is not a car in sight, and where the police may visit you if your washing is hung out untidily.
You have to enjoy the funny side of this nightmare. The funny side tonight is @MaxPB extolling the libertarian virtues of Switzerland, a country still with National Service, where you can't use a washing machine on a Sunday, or cross the road except on a green pedestrian signal even if there is not a car in sight, and where the police may visit you if your washing is hung out untidily.
When my brother was living in Germany he got two police cars visiting when he started mowing his lawn on a Sunday.
LOL. It is what we speculated at the time. At issue was not whether Trump was a billionaire, as Bloomberg and others discussed, but the likelihood he paid no taxes at all. Trump himself has boasted of getting huge tax concessions on his developments. I'm not sure this is not a feature of US capitalism generally ... we will bring this team/factory/development to the Great State of Wazoo but only if the state coughs up millions in subsidies, otherwise we'll try the state next door.
You have to enjoy the funny side of this nightmare. The funny side tonight is @MaxPB extolling the libertarian virtues of Switzerland, a country still with National Service, where you can't use a washing machine on a Sunday, or cross the road except on a green pedestrian signal even if there is not a car in sight, and where the police may visit you if your washing is hung out untidily.
Isn't there a law about toilet flushing?
Yes, 10pm is your deadline, I think. Although there might be an exemption for emergencies.
You have to enjoy the funny side of this nightmare. The funny side tonight is @MaxPB extolling the libertarian virtues of Switzerland, a country still with National Service, where you can't use a washing machine on a Sunday, or cross the road except on a green pedestrian signal even if there is not a car in sight, and where the police may visit you if your washing is hung out untidily.
Yesterday's funny side was two 18 year old lads saying how tough it was being locked up in a flat with two 18 year old girls.
LOL. It is what we speculated at the time. At issue was not whether Trump was a billionaire, as Bloomberg and others discussed, but the likelihood he paid no taxes at all. Trump himself has boasted of getting huge tax concessions on his developments. I'm not sure this is not a feature of US capitalism generally ... we will bring this team/factory/development to the Great State of Wazoo but only if the state coughs up millions in subsidies, otherwise we'll try the state next door.
Trump's personal taxes are uninteresting.
The juicy stuff is loan documents compared to tax submissions. How much did he value property A at when getting a loan vs how much was it valued at when paying taxes.
You have to enjoy the funny side of this nightmare. The funny side tonight is @MaxPB extolling the libertarian virtues of Switzerland, a country still with National Service, where you can't use a washing machine on a Sunday, or cross the road except on a green pedestrian signal even if there is not a car in sight, and where the police may visit you if your washing is hung out untidily.
Isn't there a law about toilet flushing?
Yes, 10pm is your deadline, I think. Although there might be an exemption for emergencies.
Well I am off to use my hard fought British freedoms to go and flush mine now :-)
Comments
https://twitter.com/carlheneghan/status/1310140806519566337
Before 3 Nov: Back 1.33, Lay 1.38
3 Nov to 19 Jan: Back 8, Lay 15
20 Jan or later: Back 5.3, Lay 8
What do people make of this?
All media commentary suggests it's almost an absolute certainty it will be before the GE. Dems can't stop it and only two Rep senators are against.
So what's the thinking? Maybe that Romney and someone else will vote to have a vote but may then vote No?
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1310305218136072194
I'm always curious - why do people think that if you withdraw policing, the local people will just say thank you?
Like the lawyers of my acquaintance who wanted all the harassment of... shop lifters to be stopped. So there would literally nothing done to shop lifters. Now, I'm sure that many shop[ lifters are actually sad cases etc. But what do you think shop keepers will do in the circumstance?
It's almost like "policing by consent" is a contract between 2 parties.....
Come to that where's that wall?
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1310321306647240705
Doesn’t explain the large drop I’d assume a reporting failure but it may just be topping out over the whole country.
I *think* https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa is the official Spanish site
Seems to be showing a similar thing.....
hmmmmm
Just what we need
If true, then the new government strategy of trying to suppress the virus as far as possible until it arrives is untenable.
Take a look at Trump's schedule of campaign stops. He has done 14 in person rallies - New Hampshire, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Florida, Virginia and Minnesota and multiple trips to Ohio, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. So, not only swing states he won last time but also swing states he didn't (the official explanation for doing the VA trip is that the airport is close to Northern NC to enable him to campaign to voters there but...)
Now look at the crowds that turn out for his rallies. Compare that with Biden's.
Now also compare with multiple sources - both Democrats and Republicans - claiming Biden's lead with Hispanics is less than Clinton's, and possibly the same is happening with the Black vote.
Now consider that despite amount of extra cash Biden has spent on advertising compared with Trump and he still can't see an acceleration of his lead (and possibly a fall).
I know a lot of people have a go (wrongly I think) at HYFUD for pointing out what Trafalgar and Rasmussen say but - and you are not one of them Peter - lap up every ABC / WP poll that has Biden at +10
It's one thing putting a few quid on a Biden win but going all out on him having a blowout victory at this stage looks reckless.
Is he trying to get letters sent in?
Lol, goodbye Boris Johnson
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byW1GExQB84
Whoever would have suspected such an extraordinary turn of events?
Me: "Cement mixer go brrrrr"
How can the shires who hate building possibly sit with the red wall that I think wants nothing but building and regeneration?
How is that going to work?
Somebody is going to get disappointed.
Also got a new toy that sterilises your phone, keys etc with UV light. I remember reading a piece about the use of UV on here.
The planning reforms are causing revolts in the shires because presumably they apply there too
Can anyone spot the problem?
An embarrassing trip to A&E could result if you follow Trump's advice.
And Happy Birthday!
Therefore an unarguable fact of nature like the Laws of Thermodynamics. Not decided by Lefty civil servants swayed by Cultural Marxism or some such.
At least that's how Dom seems to think.
Methinks hundreds of Tory councillors may dissent from this orthodoxy.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1310331314021818370?s=20
So thrashed out an unworkable compromise worse than either shutting or doing nothing.
But that's just me.
The juicy stuff is loan documents compared to tax submissions. How much did he value property A at when getting a loan vs how much was it valued at when paying taxes.