The shifting tides: voting trends since 2005 – politicalbetting.com
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Comments
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Morning all. Great piece, thanks Alastair.0
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No way I’m second0
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My preference for presenting this data would have been to show the variation for each seat relative to the average swing, but I liked the map regardless.
Back to the sock knitting...0 -
Daily COVID cases starting to rise in the US again. Up 22% in the last 14 days according to the NYT tracker.1
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What were you doing in 2005?
A Levels.
Charles Kennedy started his campaign at my college. I walked behind Jenny Scott doing a piece to camera and was disappointed when it wasn't used on the Six O'Clock News.-1 -
What was I doing in 2005?
Dealing with a sickly 5 year old who was in and out of hospital. And a 1 year old with the biorhythm of an extreme lark.
Cannot even remember the election or anything else.0 -
2005: first general election election I voted in (I was out the country for the previous two I would have been old enough to vote)0
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I was 13 in 2005.
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2005 feels like a lost paradise. And I was on an idyllic Greek island, Skyros, for the election.
*sigh*
Actually, no I wasn't, I was in London. 2001 was Greece. It just shows how the New Labour years now seem so politically uneventful, they blend into one another.2 -
That makes the rest of us feel very old!Gallowgate said:I was 13 in 2005.
Although I was reminded today that this year’s “freshers” were mostly born after 9/11.
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Yes. 1000 new cases in NY today. First time it's been four figures for agesnot_on_fire said:Daily COVID cases starting to rise in the US again. Up 22% in the last 14 days according to the NYT tracker.
https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1309859376786702336?s=200 -
There’s some people on my postgraduate course born in 1999 so I’m starting to experience feeling old!Sandpit said:
That makes the rest of us feel very old!Gallowgate said:I was 13 in 2005.
Although I was reminded today that this year’s “freshers” were mostly born after 9/11.1 -
Excellent chart - I don't know why, but I just find this colour scheme oddly appealing...
I remember watching the 2005 election results roll in with some friends, one of whom was so marrow-deep a Tory that he made me look moderate. He was absolutely convinced that Blair was about to be unceremoniously ejected from power, while the rest of us tried our best to humour him and keep him happy-drunk.
He was also 100% certain then that Britain would eventually vote to leave the EU, which made us roll our eyes even more. I mean, how wrong can one person be?!0 -
"Toward the beginning of a wise and beautifully stated essay about American partisanship and the response to Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death, the lawyer and political commentator David French wrote, “I have never in my adult life seen such a deep shudder and sense of dread pass through the American political class.”
I don’t think the shudder was confined to the political class. And the day after Ginsburg died, I felt a shudder just as deep.
That was when Trump supporters descended on a polling location in Fairfax, Va., and sought to disrupt early voting there by forming a line that voters had to circumvent and chanting, “Four more years!”
This was no rogue group. This was no random occurrence. This was an omen — and a harrowing one at that."
NYTimes0 -
It is astonishing and extremely upsetting to watch American democracy self-destruct.
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It's a testament to Tone's awesomeness that his swan song of 2005 was only a bit worse than Boris's 2019, which Boris's admirers perceive as one of the greatest political achievements in history.BluestBlue said:Excellent chart - I don't know why, but I just find this colour scheme oddly appealing...
I remember watching the 2005 election results roll in with some friends, one of whom was so marrow-deep a Tory that he made me look moderate. He was absolutely convinced that Blair was about to be unceremoniously ejected from power, while the rest of us tried our best to humour him and keep him happy-drunk.
He was also 100% certain then that Britain would eventually vote to leave the EU, which made us roll our eyes even more. I mean, how wrong can one person be?!0 -
In 2005 I was visiting my eldest son and his partner in Christchurch, New Zealand for the first time, since they emigrated in 20032
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In 2005 I'd been retired for 10 years. Doesn't seem that long ago.
Edit - just looked at my records. On 26 Sept 2005, I was just one kilo lighter than I am now.0 -
6,042 new cases in the UK. I presume weekend effect / brief respite, until the student lepers keep super spreading it.0
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Both sides are responsible for this tragedy. The insane identity politics of the American Left are as corrosive and damaging as the stupidity and aggression of the Trumpians.rottenborough said:It is astonishing and extremely upsetting to watch American democracy self-destruct.
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FFS...Anti-lockdown protesters clash with police after at least 15,000 gathered against virus restrictions in Trafalgar Square
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8775451/At-15-000-people-cram-Trafalgar-Square-Not-Consent-rally-against-lockdown.html
Lock'em up, the lot of them. I bet Piers Moron will be going nuts over this.1 -
Oh no, not a whole seven years younger than you!Gallowgate said:
There’s some people on my postgraduate course born in 1999 so I’m starting to experience feeling old!Sandpit said:
That makes the rest of us feel very old!Gallowgate said:I was 13 in 2005.
Although I was reminded today that this year’s “freshers” were mostly born after 9/11.
(I’m 14 years older than you, and still feel young).1 -
2005 I was Divisional MD of an automotive multinational with 2000 reportables in four countries
Spent too much time travelling and not enough with the family
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Best rated comments underneath very much in favour of the protests.FrancisUrquhart said:FFS...Anti-lockdown protesters clash with police after at least 15,000 gathered against virus restrictions in Trafalgar Square
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8775451/At-15-000-people-cram-Trafalgar-Square-Not-Consent-rally-against-lockdown.html
Lock'em up, the lot of them. I bet Piers Moron will be going nuts over this.
Where is the Law and Order outrage?0 -
Interesting article by Alastair.
It raises the interesting questions: what were the causes of this differential swing, and what should the two main parties try to do to improve their positions in the light of it?0 -
I fear for when we actually go into Lockdown Harder....
https://twitter.com/themetskipper/status/1309878062310457344?s=200 -
Yes, on one side you have people demanding that Black people be treated as full human being with rights and on the other side you have a proto-fascist.LadyG said:
Both sides are responsible for this tragedy. The insane identity politics of the American Left are as corrosive and damaging as the stupidity and aggression of the Trumpians.rottenborough said:It is astonishing and extremely upsetting to watch American democracy self-destruct.
Both sides clearly to blame.
FFS, get a grip.5 -
What exactly do you mean by the American left? Mainstream Dems are by and large slightly to the right of David Cameron.LadyG said:
Both sides are responsible for this tragedy. The insane identity politics of the American Left are as corrosive and damaging as the stupidity and aggression of the Trumpians.rottenborough said:It is astonishing and extremely upsetting to watch American democracy self-destruct.
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Top of the league again.
Get in.0 -
Meanwhile, in Scotland, it's not going well:
https://twitter.com/L_A_Kelly/status/1309842657607405568
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As you say, Blair's swansong.Stark_Dawning said:
It's a testament to Tone's awesomeness that his swan song of 2005 was only a bit worse than Boris's 2019, which Boris's admirers perceive as one of the greatest political achievements in history.BluestBlue said:Excellent chart - I don't know why, but I just find this colour scheme oddly appealing...
I remember watching the 2005 election results roll in with some friends, one of whom was so marrow-deep a Tory that he made me look moderate. He was absolutely convinced that Blair was about to be unceremoniously ejected from power, while the rest of us tried our best to humour him and keep him happy-drunk.
He was also 100% certain then that Britain would eventually vote to leave the EU, which made us roll our eyes even more. I mean, how wrong can one person be?!
This could be just the start of the Johnson revolution, he has only been in office for a year. Johnson needs to pull his finger out for that to come to passs however.0 -
Fingers crossed for a few more £10k fines. Eventually people will get the hint and stop organising large gatherings.FrancisUrquhart said:
I’d like to think I was pretty high up on the libertarian scale on this forum, but things like wars and pandemics require a different approach. How many of these idiots will visit parents and grandparents in the coming days and weeks?1 -
Highly unusual level of National GOP interaction with the Alaska senate race.0
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I fear this movement is turning into a bit of a QAnon type thing. I wonder if the usual suspects are involved in amplifying it?Sandpit said:
Fingers crossed for a few more £10k fines. Eventually people will get the hint and stop organising large gatherings.FrancisUrquhart said:
I’d like to think I was pretty high up on the libertarian scale on this forum, but things like wars and pandemics require a different approach. How many of these idiots will visit parents and grandparents in the coming days and weeks?0 -
Growth in new hospitalisations down for the first time since the start of this second wave. That's got to be good news, hopefully it isn't a blip or statistical quirk either. It also lines up with the introduction of the rule of six.0
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Great game of rugby between the Exeter First Nation Leaders and Toulon.0
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Delta between processing date and specimen date also looks to be coming down.0
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UK Cases by specimen date
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UK Cases by specimen date, and scaled to per 100K population
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UK case summary
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UK Hospitals
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I’m assuming there’s a social media thread somewhere that suggests everyone going to Trafalgar Sq at 4pm to protest the lockdown. I presume there’s a few people with hundreds of thousands of followers who shared the message. I also assume that the likes of Farage and Robinson are setting themselves up to at some point be prosecuted for not paying a £10k fine, and willing to take their case all the way to the Supreme Court. Hope the emergency legislation is legally watertight.FrancisUrquhart said:
I fear this movement is turning into a bit of a QAnon type thing. I wonder if the usual suspects are involved in amplifying it?Sandpit said:
Fingers crossed for a few more £10k fines. Eventually people will get the hint and stop organising large gatherings.FrancisUrquhart said:
I’d like to think I was pretty high up on the libertarian scale on this forum, but things like wars and pandemics require a different approach. How many of these idiots will visit parents and grandparents in the coming days and weeks?0 -
What was I doing in 2005? Well I was retired from the NHS although I had a part-time consultancy with a firm of Care Home Operators. And I was doing quite a lot of travelling and watching a lot of cricket.0
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UK deaths
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In 2005 I was in the same job, with the same wife and kids. New dog and cat, but that's about it. Its been a good 15 years...1
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Most of these are continuations of trends that have operated since the 1950s, and are neither unique to Britain nor universal. Car ownership grew rapidly until the 1980s and levelled off around 2000; cars allowed higher-earners to move out of cities. You also now have minority blocs strongly supporting Labour in many cities. On the other hand the old Christian sectarian divides are weaker, which seems to have hurt the Conservatives in Merseyside and the Central Belt, and hurt Liberals/Labour in parts of rural England. I would guess that the trends will continue as it becomes easier for people to live wherever they like.0
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2005: Started a new job and moved into the house I am in now0
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15 years ago I was at Cardiff university during Freshers week. What a time to be alive.0
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Did I or did I not predict this on here a couple of months ago? We will see, but I think they are correct.Scott_xP said:0 -
I've been active on this site since early 2005 - when I was into the second year of my career and pb.com really stimulated my interest in the campaign after reading about Bush/Kerry the year before - so it's bringing back lots of memories.2
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If the Republicans managed to get Amy through the Senate by the election (probably an 80% chance), and Trump win (say 33%), then the next four years will be very interesting.
And by 'very interesting', I mean 'utterly disastrous for the Republican Party'.
Repeal of the Affordable Care Act is of vital importance to 30% of the electorate, but would greatly upset a large number of voters who back Trump in other areas.
Overturning Roe vs Wade (which, by the way, would be a generally good thing) would be a similarly bad idea. Legal abortion is supported in the vast majority of US states (only the Deep South is majority opposed). Because it's been legal, it hasn't been a great motivator for voters who support it. If Roe vs Wade was overturned, it would act as a recruiting sergeant for the Left in the US - and would almost certainly result in more liberal abortion laws in the medium term.
Plus, of course, Trump would be the President facing the Coronavirus hangover, in a country where scepticism about vaccines is rampant.0 -
Fifteen years ago this week, I submitted my MA thesis and began my PhD. Graduated with Distinction.
Lot of water flowed under a lot of bridges since then. Three careers, two different degrees, four different houses.1 -
Yes, but it was the Lib Dem collapse that put Labour ahead in those years, so it's different from being behind because your own party is clapped out.Scott_xP said:1 -
Yes, I started visiting PB around 2009 which was about 2 years into my career and it also got me into gambling. It's been a nice little bonus every time there's a major political event, though I'd have liked to have done better out of the leave vote than I did. Disregarding the constituency polling in 2015 was very profitable and again last year when it showed those turncoat candidates winning in specific seats but the Lib Dems crashing nationally just as in 2015.Casino_Royale said:I've been active on this site since early 2005 - when I was into the second year of my career and pb.com really stimulated my interest in the campaign after reading about Bush/Kerry the year before - so it's bringing back lots of memories.
Most profitable betting event is now the 2019 election, I posted my forecast on here couple of weeks beforehand and bet on that basis. I think I was almost bang on the majority and about 10 seats off the final Labour tally.5 -
Can I put a complaint in of insufficient baton use ?FrancisUrquhart said:I fear for when we actually go into Lockdown Harder....
https://twitter.com/themetskipper/status/1309878062310457344?s=203 -
It's difficult to tell what's a baton and what's a camera.Pulpstar said:
Can I put a complaint in of insufficient baton use ?FrancisUrquhart said:I fear for when we actually go into Lockdown Harder....
https://twitter.com/themetskipper/status/1309878062310457344?s=200 -
One suggestion is that it's the changing demographics of places. The sort of places that younger people go to study or work have swung left, and the sort of places where older people get left behind have swung right as the young lefties move out.Richard_Nabavi said:Interesting article by Alastair.
It raises the interesting questions: what were the causes of this differential swing, and what should the two main parties try to do to improve their positions in the light of it?0 -
In fact, Bernie Sanders is *still* to the right of Boris Johnson on many issues.Mexicanpete said:
What exactly do you mean by the American left? Mainstream Dems are by and large slightly to the right of David Cameron.LadyG said:
Both sides are responsible for this tragedy. The insane identity politics of the American Left are as corrosive and damaging as the stupidity and aggression of the Trumpians.rottenborough said:It is astonishing and extremely upsetting to watch American democracy self-destruct.
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Very true.Malmesbury said:
In fact, Bernie Sanders is *still* to the right of Boris Johnson on many issues.Mexicanpete said:
What exactly do you mean by the American left? Mainstream Dems are by and large slightly to the right of David Cameron.LadyG said:
Both sides are responsible for this tragedy. The insane identity politics of the American Left are as corrosive and damaging as the stupidity and aggression of the Trumpians.rottenborough said:It is astonishing and extremely upsetting to watch American democracy self-destruct.
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2005, good times. 9632 votes and third place.3
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Superb header!0
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Did Lecturers still hold tutorials in The Woodville?MaxPB said:15 years ago I was at Cardiff university during Freshers week. What a time to be alive.
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Serve the parents and grandparents right for raising idiots. Seriously, they should be behaving defensively. It's like driving a car, the fact that the other driver was entirely in the wrong doesn’t make you any less dead.Sandpit said:
Fingers crossed for a few more £10k fines. Eventually people will get the hint and stop organising large gatherings.FrancisUrquhart said:
I’d like to think I was pretty high up on the libertarian scale on this forum, but things like wars and pandemics require a different approach. How many of these idiots will visit parents and grandparents in the coming days and weeks?1 -
Can anyone think of a country that has gone backwards on abortion rights, in recent years?rcs1000 said:If the Republicans managed to get Amy through the Senate by the election (probably an 80% chance), and Trump win (say 33%), then the next four years will be very interesting.
And by 'very interesting', I mean 'utterly disastrous for the Republican Party'.
Repeal of the Affordable Care Act is of vital importance to 30% of the electorate, but would greatly upset a large number of voters who back Trump in other areas.
Overturning Roe vs Wade (which, by the way, would be a generally good thing) would be a similarly bad idea. Legal abortion is supported in the vast majority of US states (only the Deep South is majority opposed). Because it's been legal, it hasn't been a great motivator for voters who support it. If Roe vs Wade was overturned, it would act as a recruiting sergeant for the Left in the US - and would almost certainly result in more liberal abortion laws in the medium term.
Plus, of course, Trump would be the President facing the Coronavirus hangover, in a country where scepticism about vaccines is rampant.
I think you are right about the effects. I seem to recall that in NI, a fair number of hardline republican voters (according to polling) would not back unification unless the South did something about abortion...0 -
10 points behind and the Tories shouldn't worry, erh what?
The 2010-2015 polls were widely believed to be terrible. In 2017 and 2019 Survation performed well and Opinium got it spot on in 2019.
If they show a 10 point gap, I think we can be fairly confident that is the true result. Of course a swing back is likely/possible but I somehow can't see Starmer doing much worse than Corbyn 2017 which was still 40% of the vote.0 -
Lol no, but we did have a few in The Taff because one of the PhDs couldn't get a room booked in time so he just did it in there.Mexicanpete said:
Did Lecturers still hold tutorials in The Woodville?MaxPB said:15 years ago I was at Cardiff university during Freshers week. What a time to be alive.
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Interestingly, the 2005GE was the first election I detected a change in my pre-existing assumptions of electorate behaviour - which, essentially, was Tory for middle class and Labour for working class with the fight on a central economic axis.MaxPB said:
Yes, I started visiting PB around 2009 which was about 2 years into my career and it also got me into gambling. It's been a nice little bonus every time there's a major political event, though I'd have liked to have done better out of the leave vote than I did. Disregarding the constituency polling in 2015 was very profitable and again last year when it showed those turncoat candidates winning in specific seats but the Lib Dems crashing nationally just as in 2015.Casino_Royale said:I've been active on this site since early 2005 - when I was into the second year of my career and pb.com really stimulated my interest in the campaign after reading about Bush/Kerry the year before - so it's bringing back lots of memories.
Most profitable betting event is now the 2019 election, I posted my forecast on here couple of weeks beforehand and bet on that basis. I think I was almost bang on the majority and about 10 seats off the final Labour tally.
I was working in Milton Keynes at the time with English Partnerships on new housing/infrastructure projects, and I noticed that WWC voters I worked with aged 45+ were becoming more open about their concerns about immigration and increasingly receptive to Conservative messages. This was even though they thought a Howard led Government might cut their funding as they were working for a quango.
I also noticed that the same Conservative messages were making minimal impact on middle-class professionals, who viewed the Tories then as much as they did UKIP later.
I should have paid closer attention to this at the time.4 -
I started around election 2005 under a different handle. Went away for a number of years- too busy. SeanT. was just as controversial.Casino_Royale said:I've been active on this site since early 2005 - when I was into the second year of my career and pb.com really stimulated my interest in the campaign after reading about Bush/Kerry the year before - so it's bringing back lots of memories.
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How much does a change impact voting in 2024, Keir is seemingly going for the New Labour approach advised by Brown in the foreground (and I assume) Blair in the background.
I've bet on a Hung Parliament - and am prepared to lose money yet again, as you know my recent record has been poor, although I did call 2017 and the EU Elections correctly. I've bet on Biden to be President, will see how that goes.0 -
Whose scored ?CorrectHorseBattery said:Superb header!
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Sunak has made his first massive mistake.CorrectHorseBattery said:2 -
2005 - just cashed out from selling a small consultancy to a bunch of Swedes, and gone independent contracting ag a in, working for Reuters editorial (in an IT capacity)0
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I was a couple of decades ahead of you, and Politics wasn't really a "proper" degree.MaxPB said:
Lol no, but we did have a few in The Taff because one of the PhDs couldn't get a room booked in time so he just did it in there.Mexicanpete said:
Did Lecturers still hold tutorials in The Woodville?MaxPB said:15 years ago I was at Cardiff university during Freshers week. What a time to be alive.
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"The Party's decision to enforce more measures has been a great success"
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Well it's an interesting one, will his mistakes (?) as Chancellor come back to haunt him as they did for Brown?rottenborough said:
Sunak has made his first massive mistake.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I don't doubt Sunak will get a bounce when he - presumably - takes over but I wonder if it will last. Brown's didn't last long and that's the last version of these events we have to compare to. He then was out of power three years later.
I wonder if 2024 will be a repeat of 2010.0 -
The new measures don't do anything...isam said:"The Party's decision to enforce more measures has been a great success"
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The amount of IT/Software Eng professionals here intrigues me0
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CorrectHorseBattery said:
How much does a change impact voting in 2024, Keir is seemingly going for the New Labour approach advised by Brown in the foreground (and I assume) Blair in the background.
I've bet on a Hung Parliament - and am prepared to lose money yet again, as you know my recent record has been poor, although I did call 2017 and the EU Elections correctly. I've bet on Biden to be President, will see how that goes.
Nobody can possibly have a clue about the 2024 GE, far too many variables, indeed an exceptional number of them3 -
I've bet on it regardless, put my money where my mouth is, it's money I can afford to loseBig_G_NorthWales said:CorrectHorseBattery said:How much does a change impact voting in 2024, Keir is seemingly going for the New Labour approach advised by Brown in the foreground (and I assume) Blair in the background.
I've bet on a Hung Parliament - and am prepared to lose money yet again, as you know my recent record has been poor, although I did call 2017 and the EU Elections correctly. I've bet on Biden to be President, will see how that goes.
Nobody can possibly have a clue about the 2024 GE, far too many variables, indeed an exceptional numbers of themCorrectHorseBattery said:How much does a change impact voting in 2024, Keir is seemingly going for the New Labour approach advised by Brown in the foreground (and I assume) Blair in the background.
I've bet on a Hung Parliament - and am prepared to lose money yet again, as you know my recent record has been poor, although I did call 2017 and the EU Elections correctly. I've bet on Biden to be President, will see how that goes.0 -
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It's true that universities and seaside towns have been trends in the 2000s and 2010s, but in the round, the big movers against the overall trend are Scotland, outer parts London that aren't particularly White British, and Merseyside. Furthermore, the biggest mover toward Conservatives is the midlands. None of these are explained by the Anglosphere "young v. old" political trend of the 2010s. Let's say it applies to maybe 100 seats - but not 600.Stuartinromford said:
One suggestion is that it's the changing demographics of places. The sort of places that younger people go to study or work have swung left, and the sort of places where older people get left behind have swung right as the young lefties move out.Richard_Nabavi said:Interesting article by Alastair.
It raises the interesting questions: what were the causes of this differential swing, and what should the two main parties try to do to improve their positions in the light of it?0 -
Just randomly stumbled across what students are required to do when self isolating in one Scottish University. Presumably this sort of thing is pretty common across the university sector. It's just shocking (and far worse than most ordinary people have to go through, and with far lower risk of penalty for breaching)
https://www.stir.ac.uk/coronavirus/changes-at-stirling-for-2020/making-campus-safer/how-to-self-isolate-quarantine/#d.en.1067322 -
These students should never have gone back, what a complete waste of a lifealex_ said:Just randomly stumbled across what students are required to do when self isolating in one Scottish University. It's just shocking.
https://www.stir.ac.uk/coronavirus/changes-at-stirling-for-2020/making-campus-safer/how-to-self-isolate-quarantine/#d.en.1067320 -
I think that's the point...CorrectHorseBattery said:
The new measures don't do anything...isam said:"The Party's decision to enforce more measures has been a great success"
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Oh, whooshalex_ said:
I think that's the point...CorrectHorseBattery said:
The new measures don't do anything...isam said:"The Party's decision to enforce more measures has been a great success"
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I have Sunak as a shooting star. Unless Johnson falls on his well worked sword soon, Sunak will miss the boat. I have this horrible fear that Raab could come next, although I have offset that disappointment, and there will be a drink in it for me if he does.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Well it's an interesting one, will his mistakes (?) as Chancellor come back to haunt him as they did for Brown?rottenborough said:
Sunak has made his first massive mistake.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I don't doubt Sunak will get a bounce when he - presumably - takes over but I wonder if it will last. Brown's didn't last long and that's the last version of these events we have to compare to. He then was out of power three years later.
I wonder if 2024 will be a repeat of 2010.1 -
They are not going to overturn Roe v Wade.rcs1000 said:If the Republicans managed to get Amy through the Senate by the election (probably an 80% chance), and Trump win (say 33%), then the next four years will be very interesting.
And by 'very interesting', I mean 'utterly disastrous for the Republican Party'.
Repeal of the Affordable Care Act is of vital importance to 30% of the electorate, but would greatly upset a large number of voters who back Trump in other areas.
Overturning Roe vs Wade (which, by the way, would be a generally good thing) would be a similarly bad idea. Legal abortion is supported in the vast majority of US states (only the Deep South is majority opposed). Because it's been legal, it hasn't been a great motivator for voters who support it. If Roe vs Wade was overturned, it would act as a recruiting sergeant for the Left in the US - and would almost certainly result in more liberal abortion laws in the medium term.
Plus, of course, Trump would be the President facing the Coronavirus hangover, in a country where scepticism about vaccines is rampant.
Just salami slice it to death.1 -
I think you and I think in similar ways.Mexicanpete said:
I have Sunak as a shooting star. Unless Johnson falls on his well worked sword soon, Sunak will miss the boat. I have this horrible fear that Raab could come next, although I have offset that disappointment, and there will be a drink in it for me if he does.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Well it's an interesting one, will his mistakes (?) as Chancellor come back to haunt him as they did for Brown?rottenborough said:
Sunak has made his first massive mistake.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I don't doubt Sunak will get a bounce when he - presumably - takes over but I wonder if it will last. Brown's didn't last long and that's the last version of these events we have to compare to. He then was out of power three years later.
I wonder if 2024 will be a repeat of 2010.
I wonder if it's too early for Rishi and he won't go for it. I'm not betting on it as I don't have the confidence I had with Johnson1 -
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I can't see how high unemployment is going to make the Tory Party popular0
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It did them little harm in the 1980s. Although this feels different. More like post-2008, but on steroids.CorrectHorseBattery said:I can't see how high unemployment is going to make the Tory Party popular
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Isn't the equivalent then though that they were going up against Corbyn whereas now they're going up against Wilson?Mexicanpete said:
It did them little harm in the 1980s. Although this feels different. More like post-2008, but on steroids.CorrectHorseBattery said:I can't see how high unemployment is going to make the Tory Party popular
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" How on earth does a party that can count JS Mill among its forebears end up seeking the outlaw the use of the phrase “biological man”? "
"As an outsider who runs a centrist think-tank, I’d suggest the Lib Dem aim should be something else: to make the case for a rather older idea of liberalism, one where personal freedom and responsibility go hand-in-hand and people are trusted to make their own choices within a clear set of rules."
https://unherd.com/2020/09/what-is-to-become-of-the-lib-dem-cockroaches/0 -
He has to get it soon. If the economy bombs on his watch, he will be as welcome as a fart in a spacesuit.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I think you and I think in similar ways.Mexicanpete said:
I have Sunak as a shooting star. Unless Johnson falls on his well worked sword soon, Sunak will miss the boat. I have this horrible fear that Raab could come next, although I have offset that disappointment, and there will be a drink in it for me if he does.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Well it's an interesting one, will his mistakes (?) as Chancellor come back to haunt him as they did for Brown?rottenborough said:
Sunak has made his first massive mistake.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I don't doubt Sunak will get a bounce when he - presumably - takes over but I wonder if it will last. Brown's didn't last long and that's the last version of these events we have to compare to. He then was out of power three years later.
I wonder if 2024 will be a repeat of 2010.
I wonder if it's too early for Rishi and he won't go for it. I'm not betting on it as I don't have the confidence I had with Johnson1
