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The shifting tides: voting trends since 2005 – politicalbetting.com
The shifting tides: voting trends since 2005 – politicalbetting.com
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Back to the sock knitting...
A Levels.
Charles Kennedy started his campaign at my college. I walked behind Jenny Scott doing a piece to camera and was disappointed when it wasn't used on the Six O'Clock News.
Dealing with a sickly 5 year old who was in and out of hospital. And a 1 year old with the biorhythm of an extreme lark.
Cannot even remember the election or anything else.
*sigh*
Actually, no I wasn't, I was in London. 2001 was Greece. It just shows how the New Labour years now seem so politically uneventful, they blend into one another.
Although I was reminded today that this year’s “freshers” were mostly born after 9/11.
https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1309859376786702336?s=20
I remember watching the 2005 election results roll in with some friends, one of whom was so marrow-deep a Tory that he made me look moderate. He was absolutely convinced that Blair was about to be unceremoniously ejected from power, while the rest of us tried our best to humour him and keep him happy-drunk.
He was also 100% certain then that Britain would eventually vote to leave the EU, which made us roll our eyes even more. I mean, how wrong can one person be?!
I don’t think the shudder was confined to the political class. And the day after Ginsburg died, I felt a shudder just as deep.
That was when Trump supporters descended on a polling location in Fairfax, Va., and sought to disrupt early voting there by forming a line that voters had to circumvent and chanting, “Four more years!”
This was no rogue group. This was no random occurrence. This was an omen — and a harrowing one at that."
NYTimes
Edit - just looked at my records. On 26 Sept 2005, I was just one kilo lighter than I am now.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8775451/At-15-000-people-cram-Trafalgar-Square-Not-Consent-rally-against-lockdown.html
Lock'em up, the lot of them. I bet Piers Moron will be going nuts over this.
(I’m 14 years older than you, and still feel young).
Spent too much time travelling and not enough with the family
Where is the Law and Order outrage?
It raises the interesting questions: what were the causes of this differential swing, and what should the two main parties try to do to improve their positions in the light of it?
https://twitter.com/themetskipper/status/1309878062310457344?s=20
Both sides clearly to blame.
FFS, get a grip.
Get in.
https://twitter.com/L_A_Kelly/status/1309842657607405568
This could be just the start of the Johnson revolution, he has only been in office for a year. Johnson needs to pull his finger out for that to come to passs however.
I’d like to think I was pretty high up on the libertarian scale on this forum, but things like wars and pandemics require a different approach. How many of these idiots will visit parents and grandparents in the coming days and weeks?
And by 'very interesting', I mean 'utterly disastrous for the Republican Party'.
Repeal of the Affordable Care Act is of vital importance to 30% of the electorate, but would greatly upset a large number of voters who back Trump in other areas.
Overturning Roe vs Wade (which, by the way, would be a generally good thing) would be a similarly bad idea. Legal abortion is supported in the vast majority of US states (only the Deep South is majority opposed). Because it's been legal, it hasn't been a great motivator for voters who support it. If Roe vs Wade was overturned, it would act as a recruiting sergeant for the Left in the US - and would almost certainly result in more liberal abortion laws in the medium term.
Plus, of course, Trump would be the President facing the Coronavirus hangover, in a country where scepticism about vaccines is rampant.
Lot of water flowed under a lot of bridges since then. Three careers, two different degrees, four different houses.
Most profitable betting event is now the 2019 election, I posted my forecast on here couple of weeks beforehand and bet on that basis. I think I was almost bang on the majority and about 10 seats off the final Labour tally.
I think you are right about the effects. I seem to recall that in NI, a fair number of hardline republican voters (according to polling) would not back unification unless the South did something about abortion...
The 2010-2015 polls were widely believed to be terrible. In 2017 and 2019 Survation performed well and Opinium got it spot on in 2019.
If they show a 10 point gap, I think we can be fairly confident that is the true result. Of course a swing back is likely/possible but I somehow can't see Starmer doing much worse than Corbyn 2017 which was still 40% of the vote.
I was working in Milton Keynes at the time with English Partnerships on new housing/infrastructure projects, and I noticed that WWC voters I worked with aged 45+ were becoming more open about their concerns about immigration and increasingly receptive to Conservative messages. This was even though they thought a Howard led Government might cut their funding as they were working for a quango.
I also noticed that the same Conservative messages were making minimal impact on middle-class professionals, who viewed the Tories then as much as they did UKIP later.
I should have paid closer attention to this at the time.
I've bet on a Hung Parliament - and am prepared to lose money yet again, as you know my recent record has been poor, although I did call 2017 and the EU Elections correctly. I've bet on Biden to be President, will see how that goes.
I don't doubt Sunak will get a bounce when he - presumably - takes over but I wonder if it will last. Brown's didn't last long and that's the last version of these events we have to compare to. He then was out of power three years later.
I wonder if 2024 will be a repeat of 2010.
Nobody can possibly have a clue about the 2024 GE, far too many variables, indeed an exceptional number of them
https://twitter.com/magog83/status/1309807632845344770
https://www.stir.ac.uk/coronavirus/changes-at-stirling-for-2020/making-campus-safer/how-to-self-isolate-quarantine/#d.en.106732
Just salami slice it to death.
I wonder if it's too early for Rishi and he won't go for it. I'm not betting on it as I don't have the confidence I had with Johnson
https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1309620608561414144
"As an outsider who runs a centrist think-tank, I’d suggest the Lib Dem aim should be something else: to make the case for a rather older idea of liberalism, one where personal freedom and responsibility go hand-in-hand and people are trusted to make their own choices within a clear set of rules."
https://unherd.com/2020/09/what-is-to-become-of-the-lib-dem-cockroaches/