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The shifting tides: voting trends since 2005 – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 26 in General
The shifting tides: voting trends since 2005 – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 33,190
    Morning all. Great piece, thanks Alastair.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,096
    No way I’m second
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 2,004
    My preference for presenting this data would have been to show the variation for each seat relative to the average swing, but I liked the map regardless.

    Back to the sock knitting...
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,694
    Daily COVID cases starting to rise in the US again. Up 22% in the last 14 days according to the NYT tracker.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 15,207
    What were you doing in 2005?

    A Levels.

    Charles Kennedy started his campaign at my college. I walked behind Jenny Scott doing a piece to camera and was disappointed when it wasn't used on the Six O'Clock News.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,776
    What was I doing in 2005?
    Dealing with a sickly 5 year old who was in and out of hospital. And a 1 year old with the biorhythm of an extreme lark.
    Cannot even remember the election or anything else.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 33,190
    2005: first general election election I voted in (I was out the country for the previous two I would have been old enough to vote)
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 10,706
    I was 13 in 2005. :)
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 1,928
    edited September 26
    2005 feels like a lost paradise. And I was on an idyllic Greek island, Skyros, for the election.

    *sigh*


    Actually, no I wasn't, I was in London. 2001 was Greece. It just shows how the New Labour years now seem so politically uneventful, they blend into one another.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,844
    edited September 26

    I was 13 in 2005. :)

    That makes the rest of us feel very old!

    Although I was reminded today that this year’s “freshers” were mostly born after 9/11. :o
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 1,928

    Daily COVID cases starting to rise in the US again. Up 22% in the last 14 days according to the NYT tracker.

    Yes. 1000 new cases in NY today. First time it's been four figures for ages

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 10,706
    Sandpit said:

    I was 13 in 2005. :)

    That makes the rest of us feel very old!

    Although I was reminded today that this year’s “freshers” were mostly born after 9/11. :o
    There’s some people on my postgraduate course born in 1999 so I’m starting to experience feeling old!
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 2,498
    Excellent chart - I don't know why, but I just find this colour scheme oddly appealing...

    I remember watching the 2005 election results roll in with some friends, one of whom was so marrow-deep a Tory that he made me look moderate. He was absolutely convinced that Blair was about to be unceremoniously ejected from power, while the rest of us tried our best to humour him and keep him happy-drunk.

    He was also 100% certain then that Britain would eventually vote to leave the EU, which made us roll our eyes even more. I mean, how wrong can one person be?!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 36,727
    "Toward the beginning of a wise and beautifully stated essay about American partisanship and the response to Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death, the lawyer and political commentator David French wrote, “I have never in my adult life seen such a deep shudder and sense of dread pass through the American political class.”

    I don’t think the shudder was confined to the political class. And the day after Ginsburg died, I felt a shudder just as deep.

    That was when Trump supporters descended on a polling location in Fairfax, Va., and sought to disrupt early voting there by forming a line that voters had to circumvent and chanting, “Four more years!”

    This was no rogue group. This was no random occurrence. This was an omen — and a harrowing one at that."

    NYTimes
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 36,727
    It is astonishing and extremely upsetting to watch American democracy self-destruct.



  • Excellent chart - I don't know why, but I just find this colour scheme oddly appealing...

    I remember watching the 2005 election results roll in with some friends, one of whom was so marrow-deep a Tory that he made me look moderate. He was absolutely convinced that Blair was about to be unceremoniously ejected from power, while the rest of us tried our best to humour him and keep him happy-drunk.

    He was also 100% certain then that Britain would eventually vote to leave the EU, which made us roll our eyes even more. I mean, how wrong can one person be?!

    It's a testament to Tone's awesomeness that his swan song of 2005 was only a bit worse than Boris's 2019, which Boris's admirers perceive as one of the greatest political achievements in history.
  • In 2005 I was visiting my eldest son and his partner in Christchurch, New Zealand for the first time, since they emigrated in 2003
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 6,513
    edited September 26
    In 2005 I'd been retired for 10 years. Doesn't seem that long ago.
    Edit - just looked at my records. On 26 Sept 2005, I was just one kilo lighter than I am now.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,487
    edited September 26
    6,042 new cases in the UK. I presume weekend effect / brief respite, until the student lepers keep super spreading it.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 1,928

    It is astonishing and extremely upsetting to watch American democracy self-destruct.



    Both sides are responsible for this tragedy. The insane identity politics of the American Left are as corrosive and damaging as the stupidity and aggression of the Trumpians.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,487
    edited September 26
    FFS...Anti-lockdown protesters clash with police after at least 15,000 gathered against virus restrictions in Trafalgar Square

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8775451/At-15-000-people-cram-Trafalgar-Square-Not-Consent-rally-against-lockdown.html

    Lock'em up, the lot of them. I bet Piers Moron will be going nuts over this.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,844
    edited September 26

    Sandpit said:

    I was 13 in 2005. :)

    That makes the rest of us feel very old!

    Although I was reminded today that this year’s “freshers” were mostly born after 9/11. :o
    There’s some people on my postgraduate course born in 1999 so I’m starting to experience feeling old!
    Oh no, not a whole seven years younger than you!

    (I’m 14 years older than you, and still feel young).
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,154
    2005 I was Divisional MD of an automotive multinational with 2000 reportables in four countries

    Spent too much time travelling and not enough with the family
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,776

    FFS...Anti-lockdown protesters clash with police after at least 15,000 gathered against virus restrictions in Trafalgar Square

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8775451/At-15-000-people-cram-Trafalgar-Square-Not-Consent-rally-against-lockdown.html

    Lock'em up, the lot of them. I bet Piers Moron will be going nuts over this.

    Best rated comments underneath very much in favour of the protests.
    Where is the Law and Order outrage?
  • Interesting article by Alastair.

    It raises the interesting questions: what were the causes of this differential swing, and what should the two main parties try to do to improve their positions in the light of it?
  • I fear for when we actually go into Lockdown Harder....

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,191
    LadyG said:

    It is astonishing and extremely upsetting to watch American democracy self-destruct.



    Both sides are responsible for this tragedy. The insane identity politics of the American Left are as corrosive and damaging as the stupidity and aggression of the Trumpians.
    What exactly do you mean by the American left? Mainstream Dems are by and large slightly to the right of David Cameron.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,776
    Top of the league again.
    Get in.
  • Meanwhile, in Scotland, it's not going well:


  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,191

    Excellent chart - I don't know why, but I just find this colour scheme oddly appealing...

    I remember watching the 2005 election results roll in with some friends, one of whom was so marrow-deep a Tory that he made me look moderate. He was absolutely convinced that Blair was about to be unceremoniously ejected from power, while the rest of us tried our best to humour him and keep him happy-drunk.

    He was also 100% certain then that Britain would eventually vote to leave the EU, which made us roll our eyes even more. I mean, how wrong can one person be?!

    It's a testament to Tone's awesomeness that his swan song of 2005 was only a bit worse than Boris's 2019, which Boris's admirers perceive as one of the greatest political achievements in history.
    As you say, Blair's swansong.

    This could be just the start of the Johnson revolution, he has only been in office for a year. Johnson needs to pull his finger out for that to come to passs however.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,844
    Fingers crossed for a few more £10k fines. Eventually people will get the hint and stop organising large gatherings.

    I’d like to think I was pretty high up on the libertarian scale on this forum, but things like wars and pandemics require a different approach. How many of these idiots will visit parents and grandparents in the coming days and weeks?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 17,396
    Highly unusual level of National GOP interaction with the Alaska senate race.
  • Sandpit said:

    Fingers crossed for a few more £10k fines. Eventually people will get the hint and stop organising large gatherings.

    I’d like to think I was pretty high up on the libertarian scale on this forum, but things like wars and pandemics require a different approach. How many of these idiots will visit parents and grandparents in the coming days and weeks?
    I fear this movement is turning into a bit of a QAnon type thing. I wonder if the usual suspects are involved in amplifying it?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,244
    Growth in new hospitalisations down for the first time since the start of this second wave. That's got to be good news, hopefully it isn't a blip or statistical quirk either. It also lines up with the introduction of the rule of six.
  • Great game of rugby between the Exeter First Nation Leaders and Toulon.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 6,513
    MaxPB said:

    Growth in new hospitalisations down for the first time since the start of this second wave. That's got to be good news, hopefully it isn't a blip or statistical quirk either. It also lines up with the introduction of the rule of six.


  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 6,513

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,244
    Delta between processing date and specimen date also looks to be coming down.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 7,672
    UK Cases by specimen date

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 7,672
    UK Cases by specimen date, and scaled to per 100K population

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 7,672
    UK case summary

    image
    image
    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 7,672
    UK Hospitals

    image
    image
    image
    image
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,844

    Sandpit said:

    Fingers crossed for a few more £10k fines. Eventually people will get the hint and stop organising large gatherings.

    I’d like to think I was pretty high up on the libertarian scale on this forum, but things like wars and pandemics require a different approach. How many of these idiots will visit parents and grandparents in the coming days and weeks?
    I fear this movement is turning into a bit of a QAnon type thing. I wonder if the usual suspects are involved in amplifying it?
    I’m assuming there’s a social media thread somewhere that suggests everyone going to Trafalgar Sq at 4pm to protest the lockdown. I presume there’s a few people with hundreds of thousands of followers who shared the message. I also assume that the likes of Farage and Robinson are setting themselves up to at some point be prosecuted for not paying a £10k fine, and willing to take their case all the way to the Supreme Court. Hope the emergency legislation is legally watertight.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,033
    What was I doing in 2005? Well I was retired from the NHS although I had a part-time consultancy with a firm of Care Home Operators. And I was doing quite a lot of travelling and watching a lot of cricket.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 7,672
    UK deaths

    image
    image
    image
    image
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,846
    In 2005 I was in the same job, with the same wife and kids. New dog and cat, but that's about it. Its been a good 15 years...
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,574
    Most of these are continuations of trends that have operated since the 1950s, and are neither unique to Britain nor universal. Car ownership grew rapidly until the 1980s and levelled off around 2000; cars allowed higher-earners to move out of cities. You also now have minority blocs strongly supporting Labour in many cities. On the other hand the old Christian sectarian divides are weaker, which seems to have hurt the Conservatives in Merseyside and the Central Belt, and hurt Liberals/Labour in parts of rural England. I would guess that the trends will continue as it becomes easier for people to live wherever they like.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 7,887
    2005: Started a new job and moved into the house I am in now
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,244
    15 years ago I was at Cardiff university during Freshers week. What a time to be alive.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 36,727
    Scott_xP said:
    Did I or did I not predict this on here a couple of months ago? We will see, but I think they are correct.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 37,638
    I've been active on this site since early 2005 - when I was into the second year of my career and pb.com really stimulated my interest in the campaign after reading about Bush/Kerry the year before - so it's bringing back lots of memories.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 33,190
    If the Republicans managed to get Amy through the Senate by the election (probably an 80% chance), and Trump win (say 33%), then the next four years will be very interesting.

    And by 'very interesting', I mean 'utterly disastrous for the Republican Party'.

    Repeal of the Affordable Care Act is of vital importance to 30% of the electorate, but would greatly upset a large number of voters who back Trump in other areas.

    Overturning Roe vs Wade (which, by the way, would be a generally good thing) would be a similarly bad idea. Legal abortion is supported in the vast majority of US states (only the Deep South is majority opposed). Because it's been legal, it hasn't been a great motivator for voters who support it. If Roe vs Wade was overturned, it would act as a recruiting sergeant for the Left in the US - and would almost certainly result in more liberal abortion laws in the medium term.

    Plus, of course, Trump would be the President facing the Coronavirus hangover, in a country where scepticism about vaccines is rampant.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 32,060
    Fifteen years ago this week, I submitted my MA thesis and began my PhD. Graduated with Distinction.

    Lot of water flowed under a lot of bridges since then. Three careers, two different degrees, four different houses.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,638
    Scott_xP said:
    Yes, but it was the Lib Dem collapse that put Labour ahead in those years, so it's different from being behind because your own party is clapped out.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,066

    I fear for when we actually go into Lockdown Harder....

    Can I put a complaint in of insufficient baton use ?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,638
    Pulpstar said:

    I fear for when we actually go into Lockdown Harder....

    Can I put a complaint in of insufficient baton use ?
    It's difficult to tell what's a baton and what's a camera.
  • Interesting article by Alastair.

    It raises the interesting questions: what were the causes of this differential swing, and what should the two main parties try to do to improve their positions in the light of it?

    One suggestion is that it's the changing demographics of places. The sort of places that younger people go to study or work have swung left, and the sort of places where older people get left behind have swung right as the young lefties move out.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 7,672

    LadyG said:

    It is astonishing and extremely upsetting to watch American democracy self-destruct.



    Both sides are responsible for this tragedy. The insane identity politics of the American Left are as corrosive and damaging as the stupidity and aggression of the Trumpians.
    What exactly do you mean by the American left? Mainstream Dems are by and large slightly to the right of David Cameron.
    In fact, Bernie Sanders is *still* to the right of Boris Johnson on many issues.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,191

    LadyG said:

    It is astonishing and extremely upsetting to watch American democracy self-destruct.



    Both sides are responsible for this tragedy. The insane identity politics of the American Left are as corrosive and damaging as the stupidity and aggression of the Trumpians.
    What exactly do you mean by the American left? Mainstream Dems are by and large slightly to the right of David Cameron.
    In fact, Bernie Sanders is *still* to the right of Boris Johnson on many issues.
    Very true.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 15,142
    2005, good times. 9632 votes and third place.
  • Superb header!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,191
    MaxPB said:

    15 years ago I was at Cardiff university during Freshers week. What a time to be alive.

    Did Lecturers still hold tutorials in The Woodville?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 3,891
    Sandpit said:

    Fingers crossed for a few more £10k fines. Eventually people will get the hint and stop organising large gatherings.

    I’d like to think I was pretty high up on the libertarian scale on this forum, but things like wars and pandemics require a different approach. How many of these idiots will visit parents and grandparents in the coming days and weeks?
    Serve the parents and grandparents right for raising idiots. Seriously, they should be behaving defensively. It's like driving a car, the fact that the other driver was entirely in the wrong doesn’t make you any less dead.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 7,672
    rcs1000 said:

    If the Republicans managed to get Amy through the Senate by the election (probably an 80% chance), and Trump win (say 33%), then the next four years will be very interesting.

    And by 'very interesting', I mean 'utterly disastrous for the Republican Party'.

    Repeal of the Affordable Care Act is of vital importance to 30% of the electorate, but would greatly upset a large number of voters who back Trump in other areas.

    Overturning Roe vs Wade (which, by the way, would be a generally good thing) would be a similarly bad idea. Legal abortion is supported in the vast majority of US states (only the Deep South is majority opposed). Because it's been legal, it hasn't been a great motivator for voters who support it. If Roe vs Wade was overturned, it would act as a recruiting sergeant for the Left in the US - and would almost certainly result in more liberal abortion laws in the medium term.

    Plus, of course, Trump would be the President facing the Coronavirus hangover, in a country where scepticism about vaccines is rampant.

    Can anyone think of a country that has gone backwards on abortion rights, in recent years?

    I think you are right about the effects. I seem to recall that in NI, a fair number of hardline republican voters (according to polling) would not back unification unless the South did something about abortion...
  • 10 points behind and the Tories shouldn't worry, erh what?

    The 2010-2015 polls were widely believed to be terrible. In 2017 and 2019 Survation performed well and Opinium got it spot on in 2019.

    If they show a 10 point gap, I think we can be fairly confident that is the true result. Of course a swing back is likely/possible but I somehow can't see Starmer doing much worse than Corbyn 2017 which was still 40% of the vote.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,244

    MaxPB said:

    15 years ago I was at Cardiff university during Freshers week. What a time to be alive.

    Did Lecturers still hold tutorials in The Woodville?
    Lol no, but we did have a few in The Taff because one of the PhDs couldn't get a room booked in time so he just did it in there.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 37,638
    MaxPB said:

    I've been active on this site since early 2005 - when I was into the second year of my career and pb.com really stimulated my interest in the campaign after reading about Bush/Kerry the year before - so it's bringing back lots of memories.

    Yes, I started visiting PB around 2009 which was about 2 years into my career and it also got me into gambling. It's been a nice little bonus every time there's a major political event, though I'd have liked to have done better out of the leave vote than I did. Disregarding the constituency polling in 2015 was very profitable and again last year when it showed those turncoat candidates winning in specific seats but the Lib Dems crashing nationally just as in 2015.

    Most profitable betting event is now the 2019 election, I posted my forecast on here couple of weeks beforehand and bet on that basis. I think I was almost bang on the majority and about 10 seats off the final Labour tally.
    Interestingly, the 2005GE was the first election I detected a change in my pre-existing assumptions of electorate behaviour - which, essentially, was Tory for middle class and Labour for working class with the fight on a central economic axis.

    I was working in Milton Keynes at the time with English Partnerships on new housing/infrastructure projects, and I noticed that WWC voters I worked with aged 45+ were becoming more open about their concerns about immigration and increasingly receptive to Conservative messages. This was even though they thought a Howard led Government might cut their funding as they were working for a quango.

    I also noticed that the same Conservative messages were making minimal impact on middle-class professionals, who viewed the Tories then as much as they did UKIP later.

    I should have paid closer attention to this at the time.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,191

    I've been active on this site since early 2005 - when I was into the second year of my career and pb.com really stimulated my interest in the campaign after reading about Bush/Kerry the year before - so it's bringing back lots of memories.

    I started around election 2005 under a different handle. Went away for a number of years- too busy. SeanT. was just as controversial.
  • How much does a change impact voting in 2024, Keir is seemingly going for the New Labour approach advised by Brown in the foreground (and I assume) Blair in the background.

    I've bet on a Hung Parliament - and am prepared to lose money yet again, as you know my recent record has been poor, although I did call 2017 and the EU Elections correctly. I've bet on Biden to be President, will see how that goes.
  • Superb header!

    Whose scored ?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 36,727
    Sunak has made his first massive mistake.
  • 2005 - just cashed out from selling a small consultancy to a bunch of Swedes, and gone independent contracting ag a in, working for Reuters editorial (in an IT capacity)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,191
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    15 years ago I was at Cardiff university during Freshers week. What a time to be alive.

    Did Lecturers still hold tutorials in The Woodville?
    Lol no, but we did have a few in The Taff because one of the PhDs couldn't get a room booked in time so he just did it in there.
    I was a couple of decades ahead of you, and Politics wasn't really a "proper" degree.
  • isamisam Posts: 34,038
    "The Party's decision to enforce more measures has been a great success"


  • Well it's an interesting one, will his mistakes (?) as Chancellor come back to haunt him as they did for Brown?

    I don't doubt Sunak will get a bounce when he - presumably - takes over but I wonder if it will last. Brown's didn't last long and that's the last version of these events we have to compare to. He then was out of power three years later.

    I wonder if 2024 will be a repeat of 2010.
  • isam said:

    "The Party's decision to enforce more measures has been a great success"


    The new measures don't do anything...
  • The amount of IT/Software Eng professionals here intrigues me
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 36,380
    edited September 26

    How much does a change impact voting in 2024, Keir is seemingly going for the New Labour approach advised by Brown in the foreground (and I assume) Blair in the background.

    I've bet on a Hung Parliament - and am prepared to lose money yet again, as you know my recent record has been poor, although I did call 2017 and the EU Elections correctly. I've bet on Biden to be President, will see how that goes.


    Nobody can possibly have a clue about the 2024 GE, far too many variables, indeed an exceptional number of them
  • How much does a change impact voting in 2024, Keir is seemingly going for the New Labour approach advised by Brown in the foreground (and I assume) Blair in the background.

    I've bet on a Hung Parliament - and am prepared to lose money yet again, as you know my recent record has been poor, although I did call 2017 and the EU Elections correctly. I've bet on Biden to be President, will see how that goes.

    How much does a change impact voting in 2024, Keir is seemingly going for the New Labour approach advised by Brown in the foreground (and I assume) Blair in the background.

    I've bet on a Hung Parliament - and am prepared to lose money yet again, as you know my recent record has been poor, although I did call 2017 and the EU Elections correctly. I've bet on Biden to be President, will see how that goes.

    Nobody can possibly have a clue about the 2024 GE, far too many variables, indeed an exceptional numbers of them
    I've bet on it regardless, put my money where my mouth is, it's money I can afford to lose
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,574
    edited September 26

    Interesting article by Alastair.

    It raises the interesting questions: what were the causes of this differential swing, and what should the two main parties try to do to improve their positions in the light of it?

    One suggestion is that it's the changing demographics of places. The sort of places that younger people go to study or work have swung left, and the sort of places where older people get left behind have swung right as the young lefties move out.
    It's true that universities and seaside towns have been trends in the 2000s and 2010s, but in the round, the big movers against the overall trend are Scotland, outer parts London that aren't particularly White British, and Merseyside. Furthermore, the biggest mover toward Conservatives is the midlands. None of these are explained by the Anglosphere "young v. old" political trend of the 2010s. Let's say it applies to maybe 100 seats - but not 600.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,155
    edited September 26
    Just randomly stumbled across what students are required to do when self isolating in one Scottish University. Presumably this sort of thing is pretty common across the university sector. It's just shocking (and far worse than most ordinary people have to go through, and with far lower risk of penalty for breaching)

    https://www.stir.ac.uk/coronavirus/changes-at-stirling-for-2020/making-campus-safer/how-to-self-isolate-quarantine/#d.en.106732
  • alex_ said:

    Just randomly stumbled across what students are required to do when self isolating in one Scottish University. It's just shocking.

    https://www.stir.ac.uk/coronavirus/changes-at-stirling-for-2020/making-campus-safer/how-to-self-isolate-quarantine/#d.en.106732

    These students should never have gone back, what a complete waste of a life
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,155

    isam said:

    "The Party's decision to enforce more measures has been a great success"


    The new measures don't do anything...
    I think that's the point...
  • alex_ said:

    isam said:

    "The Party's decision to enforce more measures has been a great success"


    The new measures don't do anything...
    I think that's the point...
    Oh, whoosh
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,191

    Well it's an interesting one, will his mistakes (?) as Chancellor come back to haunt him as they did for Brown?

    I don't doubt Sunak will get a bounce when he - presumably - takes over but I wonder if it will last. Brown's didn't last long and that's the last version of these events we have to compare to. He then was out of power three years later.

    I wonder if 2024 will be a repeat of 2010.
    I have Sunak as a shooting star. Unless Johnson falls on his well worked sword soon, Sunak will miss the boat. I have this horrible fear that Raab could come next, although I have offset that disappointment, and there will be a drink in it for me if he does.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 25,915
    rcs1000 said:

    If the Republicans managed to get Amy through the Senate by the election (probably an 80% chance), and Trump win (say 33%), then the next four years will be very interesting.

    And by 'very interesting', I mean 'utterly disastrous for the Republican Party'.

    Repeal of the Affordable Care Act is of vital importance to 30% of the electorate, but would greatly upset a large number of voters who back Trump in other areas.

    Overturning Roe vs Wade (which, by the way, would be a generally good thing) would be a similarly bad idea. Legal abortion is supported in the vast majority of US states (only the Deep South is majority opposed). Because it's been legal, it hasn't been a great motivator for voters who support it. If Roe vs Wade was overturned, it would act as a recruiting sergeant for the Left in the US - and would almost certainly result in more liberal abortion laws in the medium term.

    Plus, of course, Trump would be the President facing the Coronavirus hangover, in a country where scepticism about vaccines is rampant.

    They are not going to overturn Roe v Wade.
    Just salami slice it to death.
  • Well it's an interesting one, will his mistakes (?) as Chancellor come back to haunt him as they did for Brown?

    I don't doubt Sunak will get a bounce when he - presumably - takes over but I wonder if it will last. Brown's didn't last long and that's the last version of these events we have to compare to. He then was out of power three years later.

    I wonder if 2024 will be a repeat of 2010.
    I have Sunak as a shooting star. Unless Johnson falls on his well worked sword soon, Sunak will miss the boat. I have this horrible fear that Raab could come next, although I have offset that disappointment, and there will be a drink in it for me if he does.
    I think you and I think in similar ways.

    I wonder if it's too early for Rishi and he won't go for it. I'm not betting on it as I don't have the confidence I had with Johnson
  • I can't see how high unemployment is going to make the Tory Party popular
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,191

    I can't see how high unemployment is going to make the Tory Party popular

    It did them little harm in the 1980s. Although this feels different. More like post-2008, but on steroids.
  • I can't see how high unemployment is going to make the Tory Party popular

    It did them little harm in the 1980s. Although this feels different. More like post-2008, but on steroids.
    Isn't the equivalent then though that they were going up against Corbyn whereas now they're going up against Wilson?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 36,727
    " How on earth does a party that can count JS Mill among its forebears end up seeking the outlaw the use of the phrase “biological man”? "

    "As an outsider who runs a centrist think-tank, I’d suggest the Lib Dem aim should be something else: to make the case for a rather older idea of liberalism, one where personal freedom and responsibility go hand-in-hand and people are trusted to make their own choices within a clear set of rules."

    https://unherd.com/2020/09/what-is-to-become-of-the-lib-dem-cockroaches/
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,191

    Well it's an interesting one, will his mistakes (?) as Chancellor come back to haunt him as they did for Brown?

    I don't doubt Sunak will get a bounce when he - presumably - takes over but I wonder if it will last. Brown's didn't last long and that's the last version of these events we have to compare to. He then was out of power three years later.

    I wonder if 2024 will be a repeat of 2010.
    I have Sunak as a shooting star. Unless Johnson falls on his well worked sword soon, Sunak will miss the boat. I have this horrible fear that Raab could come next, although I have offset that disappointment, and there will be a drink in it for me if he does.
    I think you and I think in similar ways.

    I wonder if it's too early for Rishi and he won't go for it. I'm not betting on it as I don't have the confidence I had with Johnson
    He has to get it soon. If the economy bombs on his watch, he will be as welcome as a fart in a spacesuit.
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