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New Ipsos US polling finds HALF of Republican voters oppose the plan to fill the Supreme Court vacan

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  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    FF43 said:

    TOPPING said:

    FF43 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Just what I noticed. There is no upward blue column trend over the past few days. They've just bolted on some scary red columns.

    Not to say it wouldn't but really, we have eyes also.
    It's not flat as claimed by Dan Hodges. It could be a linear increase. Actually it looks like a sudden jump in cases in early September is hiding the normal exponential curve for epidemics, making it look more linear. In a week or so that bump will essentially disappear and we will be in the red zone.
    Ah I see. It's hiding. Gotit thanks.
    Added explanation: Increased exposure (schools, Eat out to Help out, return to offices, houseparties etc) is a one-off increase; re-infections are exponential increase.
    Aren't all those events also re-infections?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    Boris Johnson should resign after briefing we should get back to the office just a few weeks ago. What an absolute dick

    You are just being silly again

    Are you calling Sturgeon, Drakeford, Foster, Macron, Merkel and everyone else to go as this is across all the UK and even worse at present in Europe
    It's sad you're now Johnson's fanboy again, each time you flip flop just makes your next flip look even less convincing
    You really need to grow up

    I'm only stating how I see it, there's no need to be rude Big G.

    You do tend to flip flop on Johnson, you've often "lost faith" and called for him to go, before then flip flopping back to supporting him.

    Just because I have pointed that out, there's no need to respond in this way. I've only been respectful to you, please do the same for me.
    Do not confuse my support for the conservative party and government with my desire to see Boris replaced

    Both are true
    But then you just asked me to grow up and were rude to me, please apologise. I called for Johnson to go as he was saying get back to the office, I don't recall any other leader saying that.
    Please can you show me a video of Boris saying get back to the office as opposed to get back to work.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12334881/boris-johnson-get-back-to-office-on-monday/

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53942542

    https://inews.co.uk/news/analysis/coronavirus-latest-boris-johnson-workers-returning-office-lockdown-615080

    It's obvious to anyone not off the deep end, he is responsible for this
    Not one of those links contains Boris saying to get back to the office even if you can work from home.

    The BBC article claims that a get back to the office campaign would be launched next week. I said at the time to you I bet it was bullshit and so it was. Its more than a week later now, where is that campaign? As I predicted at the time, no campaign was ever launched. Which is why you're quoting media bullshit that a campaign would be launched and not quoting the actual launch of an actual campaign that was never more than the figment of some people's imagination.
    Philip, if it was the other way around, you would be calling for Keir Starmer to resign. So if you'll forgive me, I am going to take your thoughts on this with a grain of salt
    If it was the other way around I'd be quoting what Keir Starmer actually said rather than just saying he said it but unable to quote when he did, because that clear fact is he did not.

    And no quoting media garbage that he "will" say it but then we know he never does is not the same thing.

    If you can only criticise Boris for saying things he never said then obviously Boris has done a fantastic job in your eyes. Because you're incapable of finding things he's actually said or done and criticising him for that, so you're inventing fictitious things to condemn him for instead.
    Boris Johnson said get back to the office, it's as clear as day what he meant and you're just being dishonest stating otherwise.

    When it's Labour you don't think about nuance or context, so I am not going to do the same for you here. To be honest, on these kinds of issues I think neither of us contribute very much.
    The PM said no such thing.

    Someone flew a kite to the media about him possibly saying something the following week, but it never happened.
  • RobD said:

    So that Italian story was more twitter bollocks.

    (refuted by twitter)

    https://twitter.com/lucyallan/status/1304464864744796161

    DeepFake....would anybody notice if an AI answered the questions? In fact, Boris often sounds like the sort of output you get from something like GPT-3.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    Another 6-9 months of lockdown / "circuit breakers" / WFH...I can't see how places like Central London ever goes back to being the same.

    If it had been just the 3-6 months of Lockdown #1, I don't think the habit has quite yet set in of WFH etc. Well over a year of it, I think it will just become defacto standard.

    If WFH is viable why shouldn't it be standard?
    I have no issue with it. I have done it for many many years. Just saying, that a lot of major cities have large numbers of workers whose jobs revolve around supporting office workers. I think that might be changing forever.
    ...and the people losing their jobs are not all going to be EvulRichFurrrinersWhoFundTheTories
    I thought they wanted to get people back in the office to make sure their rich donor friends got their office rent payments. Or something.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    kinabalu said:

    welshowl said:

    So to sum up the two science chiefs have been sent out to bat to say:-

    1) believe us because we’re not politicians.

    2) it’s serious and going to get worse, unless we take some significant actions quickly ( thereby giving cover for whatever restrictions are about go be announced).

    3) don’t play fast and loose with the rules, especially you youngsters, who are the gateway for the disease to polish off the oldies.

    4) if you knuckle down for a few months longer there is real hope of a vaccine In the not too distant future, and the U.K. is in a good place to mass immunise quickly.

    I was struck by the positivity in the vaccine. Clearly, it’s not yet a stage three result, let alone an official certified approval, but I struggle to see why the CSO would be so relatively upbeat, if he wasn’t getting some fairly serious steers from people at the forefront of the vaccine research that thenews is highly likely to be good, and not too far off at that.

    I didn't think the vaccine stuff was positive. The timeline is slipping further and further, now they basically said the vast majority of you aren't getting it until next summer.
    June, I think, is a reasonable expectation for mass rollout. It's mine anyway. And that would be not too shabby.
    I am going to have to fork out for a Peloton aren't I....That plus a RTX 3900 and perhaps treat myself with an Xbox Series X.
    Blegh Series X. Why would you do that to yourself, especially if you're getting a 3090!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Seems a OK idea to me. Renaming Arsenal to 'Emirates Arsenal' for example - as long as the names aren't silly (and as long as the sponsorship package is worked out with what is going to happen after it expires). Isn't solving the funding crisis for TFL a priority for London?
    This is based on an idea from the Dubai Metro, where more than half the stations are sponsored by local businesses and they raised huge amounts of money doing it.

    Most are named after large businesses near the station - think Piccadilly Circus being named ‘Trocadeo’ - but the big money is for the interchange and destination stations, as the station announcers say the names every few minutes. So you’d have a line that goes from BT to Emirates, or from Barclays to JCB.

    Oh, and. you’d announce the sponsorships at the same time as a five year fare freeze.
    It's a shame the fare freeze has already occurred. It is one reason why TFL was in the mess it was in before Covid even appeared on the horizon.
    Indeed. The costs were going to keep going up, so announcing a fare freeze with no idea where the cost of the freeze was coming from was a really stupid thing to do exactly what you’d expect from Sadiq Khan.
  • I see Sporting Index are having a long lazy lie-in today.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908
    RobD said:

    So that Italian story was more twitter bollocks.

    (refuted by twitter)

    https://twitter.com/lucyallan/status/1304464864744796161

    No it's a soundstage in Italy and the ghost of Stanley Kubrick is directing this fakery so that Boris can meet with his Russian handler.
  • MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    welshowl said:

    So to sum up the two science chiefs have been sent out to bat to say:-

    1) believe us because we’re not politicians.

    2) it’s serious and going to get worse, unless we take some significant actions quickly ( thereby giving cover for whatever restrictions are about go be announced).

    3) don’t play fast and loose with the rules, especially you youngsters, who are the gateway for the disease to polish off the oldies.

    4) if you knuckle down for a few months longer there is real hope of a vaccine In the not too distant future, and the U.K. is in a good place to mass immunise quickly.

    I was struck by the positivity in the vaccine. Clearly, it’s not yet a stage three result, let alone an official certified approval, but I struggle to see why the CSO would be so relatively upbeat, if he wasn’t getting some fairly serious steers from people at the forefront of the vaccine research that thenews is highly likely to be good, and not too far off at that.

    I didn't think the vaccine stuff was positive. The timeline is slipping further and further, now they basically said the vast majority of you aren't getting it until next summer.
    June, I think, is a reasonable expectation for mass rollout. It's mine anyway. And that would be not too shabby.
    I am going to have to fork out for a Peloton aren't I....That plus a RTX 3900 and perhaps treat myself with an Xbox Series X.
    Blegh Series X. Why would you do that to yourself, especially if you're getting a 3090!
    Cos the 3090 will be crunching a load of ML stuff.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    welshowl said:

    So to sum up the two science chiefs have been sent out to bat to say:-

    1) believe us because we’re not politicians.

    2) it’s serious and going to get worse, unless we take some significant actions quickly ( thereby giving cover for whatever restrictions are about go be announced).

    3) don’t play fast and loose with the rules, especially you youngsters, who are the gateway for the disease to polish off the oldies.

    4) if you knuckle down for a few months longer there is real hope of a vaccine In the not too distant future, and the U.K. is in a good place to mass immunise quickly.

    I was struck by the positivity in the vaccine. Clearly, it’s not yet a stage three result, let alone an official certified approval, but I struggle to see why the CSO would be so relatively upbeat, if he wasn’t getting some fairly serious steers from people at the forefront of the vaccine research that thenews is highly likely to be good, and not too far off at that.

    I didn't think the vaccine stuff was positive. The timeline is slipping further and further, now they basically said the vast majority of you aren't getting it until next summer.
    June, I think, is a reasonable expectation for mass rollout. It's mine anyway. And that would be not too shabby.
    I am going to have to fork out for a Peloton aren't I....That plus a RTX 3900 and perhaps treat myself with an Xbox Series X.
    Blegh Series X. Why would you do that to yourself, especially if you're getting a 3090!
    Cos the 3090 will be crunching a load of ML stuff.
    Surely it can take a break every so often...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    RobD said:

    Another 6-9 months of lockdown / "circuit breakers" / WFH...I can't see how places like Central London ever goes back to being the same.

    If it had been just the 3-6 months of Lockdown #1, I don't think the habit has quite yet set in of WFH etc. Well over a year of it, I think it will just become defacto standard.

    If WFH is viable why shouldn't it be standard?
    I have no issue with it. I have done it for many many years. Just saying, that a lot of major cities have large numbers of workers whose jobs revolve around supporting office workers. I think that might be changing forever.
    ...and the people losing their jobs are not all going to be EvulRichFurrrinersWhoFundTheTories
    I thought they wanted to get people back in the office to make sure their rich donor friends got their office rent payments. Or something.
    The office owners will finally get permission to convert to flats - in London that has been blocked in the City for years.

    The security guards, cleaners and maintenance people will presumably just cut back a bit on the Tory donations and maybe shift to a 5* hotel for Monaco this year, instead of 6*
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Boris Johnson should resign after briefing we should get back to the office just a few weeks ago. What an absolute dick

    You are just being silly again

    Are you calling Sturgeon, Drakeford, Foster, Macron, Merkel and everyone else to go as this is across all the UK and even worse at present in Europe
    It's sad you're now Johnson's fanboy again, each time you flip flop just makes your next flip look even less convincing
    You really need to grow up

    I'm only stating how I see it, there's no need to be rude Big G.

    You do tend to flip flop on Johnson, you've often "lost faith" and called for him to go, before then flip flopping back to supporting him.

    Just because I have pointed that out, there's no need to respond in this way. I've only been respectful to you, please do the same for me.
    Do not confuse my support for the conservative party and government with my desire to see Boris replaced

    Both are true
    But then you just asked me to grow up and were rude to me, please apologise. I called for Johnson to go as he was saying get back to the office, I don't recall any other leader saying that.
    Please can you show me a video of Boris saying get back to the office as opposed to get back to work.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12334881/boris-johnson-get-back-to-office-on-monday/

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53942542

    https://inews.co.uk/news/analysis/coronavirus-latest-boris-johnson-workers-returning-office-lockdown-615080

    It's obvious to anyone not off the deep end, he is responsible for this
    Not one of those links contains Boris saying to get back to the office even if you can work from home.

    The BBC article claims that a get back to the office campaign would be launched next week. I said at the time to you I bet it was bullshit and so it was. Its more than a week later now, where is that campaign? As I predicted at the time, no campaign was ever launched. Which is why you're quoting media bullshit that a campaign would be launched and not quoting the actual launch of an actual campaign that was never more than the figment of some people's imagination.
    So Boris meant to tell all those WFH to continue to WFH?

    Good call.

    Who was he telling to get back to work?
    Anyone who wasn't working but could work in a COVID-secure environment whether that was at a workplace or at home. As he said.
    Who wasn't working but could work at home if they decided to take his advice?
    There were people who couldn't work from home who could return to work.

    That never meant that every single person including those who could work from home should return to the office.
    Give me some examples.

    Your contention was that when he said go back to work he didn't mean go back to the office/workplace.

    So give me an example.
    The millions of people still on furlough at the time.

    The message was if you can work you should work. There were still millions of people on furlough. It is extremely narcissistic to think that meant that it was those already working who could WFH that were being spoken about and not the millions on furlough. 🙄
  • glw said:

    RobD said:

    So that Italian story was more twitter bollocks.

    (refuted by twitter)

    https://twitter.com/lucyallan/status/1304464864744796161

    No it's a soundstage in Italy and the ghost of Stanley Kubrick is directing this fakery so that Boris can meet with his Russian handler.
    QAnon must be involved somewhere....Carole Conspiracy is of course all over this.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464
    Friend has just come back from Foreign Parts. Filled in the form about where she was going to be on line as requested, but it wouldn't 'send'. However, when she arrived back here, all the Border Control asked her was whether she'd filled in the form. To which she correctly answered 'yes'!
    Where she was there was a temperature control inbound at the airport and at the hotel, for daily use.No temperature control at the UK Airport.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    “If cases double every 7 days we’ll reach 49,000 cases by mid October”

    Well, derrr!

    Anyone ask what happens if cases don’t double every 7 days?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    dixiedean said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1307990810231738368

    At best, Eat Out To Help Out is going to have been a complete waste of time

    The media obsession with Eat Out To Help Out potentially being a big casual factor is a bit like the Grouse shooting stuff. Foreign holidays where people have gone partying and people rammed into pubs / beer gardens is far risker than 4 people from the same household sitting quietly having a meal in a restaurant.

    Has there been one recorded "super spreading" event from a trip to Pizza Express reported? In comparison, the media has been full of ones from 300 people rammed in a pub beer garden leading to 10s of confirmed cases and you only have to look at the rate of positive cases among the footballers returning from foreign holidays to see that was a huge problem.
    Except that round here some places were rammed with extra tables and total strangers sharing tables.
    It wasn't gentle dining. It was pile them in. Get them fed, get them out and get more in.
    Which is why they’re about to all get shut again, because they were given an inch and took a mile.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    EBRD commits to the UK for the long term even in a no deal scenario. Macron must be fuming, he's been courting them for months.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    He's got a point, hasn't he? If it's doubling every week why hasn't it been doubling every week?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Boris Johnson should resign after briefing we should get back to the office just a few weeks ago. What an absolute dick

    You are just being silly again

    Are you calling Sturgeon, Drakeford, Foster, Macron, Merkel and everyone else to go as this is across all the UK and even worse at present in Europe
    It's sad you're now Johnson's fanboy again, each time you flip flop just makes your next flip look even less convincing
    You really need to grow up

    I'm only stating how I see it, there's no need to be rude Big G.

    You do tend to flip flop on Johnson, you've often "lost faith" and called for him to go, before then flip flopping back to supporting him.

    Just because I have pointed that out, there's no need to respond in this way. I've only been respectful to you, please do the same for me.
    Do not confuse my support for the conservative party and government with my desire to see Boris replaced

    Both are true
    But then you just asked me to grow up and were rude to me, please apologise. I called for Johnson to go as he was saying get back to the office, I don't recall any other leader saying that.
    Please can you show me a video of Boris saying get back to the office as opposed to get back to work.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12334881/boris-johnson-get-back-to-office-on-monday/

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53942542

    https://inews.co.uk/news/analysis/coronavirus-latest-boris-johnson-workers-returning-office-lockdown-615080

    It's obvious to anyone not off the deep end, he is responsible for this
    Not one of those links contains Boris saying to get back to the office even if you can work from home.

    The BBC article claims that a get back to the office campaign would be launched next week. I said at the time to you I bet it was bullshit and so it was. Its more than a week later now, where is that campaign? As I predicted at the time, no campaign was ever launched. Which is why you're quoting media bullshit that a campaign would be launched and not quoting the actual launch of an actual campaign that was never more than the figment of some people's imagination.
    So Boris meant to tell all those WFH to continue to WFH?

    Good call.

    Who was he telling to get back to work?
    Anyone who wasn't working but could work in a COVID-secure environment whether that was at a workplace or at home. As he said.
    Who wasn't working but could work at home if they decided to take his advice?
    There were people who couldn't work from home who could return to work.

    That never meant that every single person including those who could work from home should return to the office.
    Give me some examples.

    Your contention was that when he said go back to work he didn't mean go back to the office/workplace.

    So give me an example.
    The millions of people still on furlough at the time.

    The message was if you can work you should work. There were still millions of people on furlough. It is extremely narcissistic to think that meant that it was those already working who could WFH that were being spoken about and not the millions on furlough. 🙄
    So when he said get back to work, he meant that the employers should stop people on furlough and get them in?

    Give me an example, a profession or job, where this would be possible and why.

    TIA
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Boris Johnson should resign after briefing we should get back to the office just a few weeks ago. What an absolute dick

    You are just being silly again

    Are you calling Sturgeon, Drakeford, Foster, Macron, Merkel and everyone else to go as this is across all the UK and even worse at present in Europe
    It's sad you're now Johnson's fanboy again, each time you flip flop just makes your next flip look even less convincing
    You really need to grow up

    I'm only stating how I see it, there's no need to be rude Big G.

    You do tend to flip flop on Johnson, you've often "lost faith" and called for him to go, before then flip flopping back to supporting him.

    Just because I have pointed that out, there's no need to respond in this way. I've only been respectful to you, please do the same for me.
    Do not confuse my support for the conservative party and government with my desire to see Boris replaced

    Both are true
    But then you just asked me to grow up and were rude to me, please apologise. I called for Johnson to go as he was saying get back to the office, I don't recall any other leader saying that.
    Please can you show me a video of Boris saying get back to the office as opposed to get back to work.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12334881/boris-johnson-get-back-to-office-on-monday/

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53942542

    https://inews.co.uk/news/analysis/coronavirus-latest-boris-johnson-workers-returning-office-lockdown-615080

    It's obvious to anyone not off the deep end, he is responsible for this
    Not one of those links contains Boris saying to get back to the office even if you can work from home.

    The BBC article claims that a get back to the office campaign would be launched next week. I said at the time to you I bet it was bullshit and so it was. Its more than a week later now, where is that campaign? As I predicted at the time, no campaign was ever launched. Which is why you're quoting media bullshit that a campaign would be launched and not quoting the actual launch of an actual campaign that was never more than the figment of some people's imagination.
    So Boris meant to tell all those WFH to continue to WFH?

    Good call.

    Who was he telling to get back to work?
    Anyone who wasn't working but could work in a COVID-secure environment whether that was at a workplace or at home. As he said.
    Who wasn't working but could work at home if they decided to take his advice?
    There were people who couldn't work from home who could return to work.

    That never meant that every single person including those who could work from home should return to the office.
    Give me some examples.

    Your contention was that when he said go back to work he didn't mean go back to the office/workplace.

    So give me an example.
    The millions of people still on furlough at the time.

    The message was if you can work you should work. There were still millions of people on furlough. It is extremely narcissistic to think that meant that it was those already working who could WFH that were being spoken about and not the millions on furlough. 🙄
    Oh FFS Philip how much of a rewrite of history are you attempting?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/coronavirus/video-2209658/Video-Workers-urged-Boris-Johnson-office.html
  • I presume furlough scheme will now definitely have to be extended, that or some sort of massive change to benefits system.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Boris Johnson should resign after briefing we should get back to the office just a few weeks ago. What an absolute dick

    You are just being silly again

    Are you calling Sturgeon, Drakeford, Foster, Macron, Merkel and everyone else to go as this is across all the UK and even worse at present in Europe
    It's sad you're now Johnson's fanboy again, each time you flip flop just makes your next flip look even less convincing
    You really need to grow up

    I'm only stating how I see it, there's no need to be rude Big G.

    You do tend to flip flop on Johnson, you've often "lost faith" and called for him to go, before then flip flopping back to supporting him.

    Just because I have pointed that out, there's no need to respond in this way. I've only been respectful to you, please do the same for me.
    Do not confuse my support for the conservative party and government with my desire to see Boris replaced

    Both are true
    But then you just asked me to grow up and were rude to me, please apologise. I called for Johnson to go as he was saying get back to the office, I don't recall any other leader saying that.
    Please can you show me a video of Boris saying get back to the office as opposed to get back to work.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12334881/boris-johnson-get-back-to-office-on-monday/

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53942542

    https://inews.co.uk/news/analysis/coronavirus-latest-boris-johnson-workers-returning-office-lockdown-615080

    It's obvious to anyone not off the deep end, he is responsible for this
    Not one of those links contains Boris saying to get back to the office even if you can work from home.

    The BBC article claims that a get back to the office campaign would be launched next week. I said at the time to you I bet it was bullshit and so it was. Its more than a week later now, where is that campaign? As I predicted at the time, no campaign was ever launched. Which is why you're quoting media bullshit that a campaign would be launched and not quoting the actual launch of an actual campaign that was never more than the figment of some people's imagination.
    So Boris meant to tell all those WFH to continue to WFH?

    Good call.

    Who was he telling to get back to work?
    Anyone who wasn't working but could work in a COVID-secure environment whether that was at a workplace or at home. As he said.
    Who wasn't working but could work at home if they decided to take his advice?
    There were people who couldn't work from home who could return to work.

    That never meant that every single person including those who could work from home should return to the office.
    Give me some examples.

    Your contention was that when he said go back to work he didn't mean go back to the office/workplace.

    So give me an example.
    The millions of people still on furlough at the time.

    The message was if you can work you should work. There were still millions of people on furlough. It is extremely narcissistic to think that meant that it was those already working who could WFH that were being spoken about and not the millions on furlough. 🙄
    So when he said get back to work, he meant that the employers should stop people on furlough and get them in?

    Give me an example, a profession or job, where this would be possible and why.

    TIA
    The statistics show that many sectors of the economy have been reopening with people getting back to work. Construction, hospitality, education and many more have been reopening and/or picking up in recent months.

    Since its a perennial favourite and you want a name then I will give you one example: My local Nando's reopened.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1307990810231738368

    At best, Eat Out To Help Out is going to have been a complete waste of time

    The media obsession with Eat Out To Help Out potentially being a big casual factor is a bit like the Grouse shooting stuff. Foreign holidays where people have gone partying and people rammed into pubs / beer gardens is far risker than 4 people from the same household sitting quietly having a meal in a restaurant.

    Has there been one recorded "super spreading" event from a trip to Pizza Express reported? In comparison, the media has been full of ones from 300 people rammed in a pub beer garden leading to 10s of confirmed cases and you only have to look at the rate of positive cases among the footballers returning from foreign holidays to see that was a huge problem.
    Except that round here some places were rammed with extra tables and total strangers sharing tables.
    It wasn't gentle dining. It was pile them in. Get them fed, get them out and get more in.
    Here too. Test and Trace has published curiously little on situations where transmissions have occurred. We can only speculate as a result.

    Unless their data is total shite, they should be able to enlighten us, and then we would get better advice and more compliance.
    They might not be tracing backwards to source, only forwards to break onward transmission. There's been some discussion of this in Ireland. This thread is interesting.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/President_MU/status/1306908075161518081
    They should be able to give figures like: X% of transmissions occurred at peoples homes, Y% imported from abroad, Z% in pubs etc.

    In order to trace, they need to give their contacts, and pubs, churches etc are required to keep a 21 day register. Why, if not for tracing purposes?

    Either their data is very poor, or it shows something that they do not want to reveal, possibly both.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464
    RobD said:

    He's got a point, hasn't he? If it's doubling every week why hasn't it been doubling every week?
    There are journalism courses at a number of Unis. Assuming anyone who takes them actually does turn the subject into a career, do the syllabi include statistics?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005

    Boris Johnson should resign after briefing we should get back to the office just a few weeks ago. What an absolute dick

    You are just being silly again

    Are you calling Sturgeon, Drakeford, Foster, Macron, Merkel and everyone else to go as this is across all the UK and even worse at present in Europe
    It's sad you're now Johnson's fanboy again, each time you flip flop just makes your next flip look even less convincing
    You really need to grow up

    I'm only stating how I see it, there's no need to be rude Big G.

    You do tend to flip flop on Johnson, you've often "lost faith" and called for him to go, before then flip flopping back to supporting him.

    Just because I have pointed that out, there's no need to respond in this way. I've only been respectful to you, please do the same for me.
    Do not confuse my support for the conservative party and government with my desire to see Boris replaced

    Both are true
    But then you just asked me to grow up and were rude to me, please apologise. I called for Johnson to go as he was saying get back to the office, I don't recall any other leader saying that.
    Please can you show me a video of Boris saying get back to the office as opposed to get back to work.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12334881/boris-johnson-get-back-to-office-on-monday/

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53942542

    https://inews.co.uk/news/analysis/coronavirus-latest-boris-johnson-workers-returning-office-lockdown-615080

    It's obvious to anyone not off the deep end, he is responsible for this
    Not one of those links contains Boris saying to get back to the office even if you can work from home.

    The BBC article claims that a get back to the office campaign would be launched next week. I said at the time to you I bet it was bullshit and so it was. Its more than a week later now, where is that campaign? As I predicted at the time, no campaign was ever launched. Which is why you're quoting media bullshit that a campaign would be launched and not quoting the actual launch of an actual campaign that was never more than the figment of some people's imagination.
    Philip, if it was the other way around, you would be calling for Keir Starmer to resign. So if you'll forgive me, I am going to take your thoughts on this with a grain of salt
    If it was the other way around I'd be quoting what Keir Starmer actually said rather than just saying he said it but unable to quote when he did, because that clear fact is he did not.

    And no quoting media garbage that he "will" say it but then we know he never does is not the same thing.

    If you can only criticise Boris for saying things he never said then obviously Boris has done a fantastic job in your eyes. Because you're incapable of finding things he's actually said or done and criticising him for that, so you're inventing fictitious things to condemn him for instead.
    Philip, I can tell you specifically that anyone working for or around the MoD has come under direct pressure, down from the Government, to physically return to the office.

    Either Boris is fine with this, or his advisers have run off the rails and are making people do things without his desire, which seems unlikely.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    edited September 2020
    alex_ said:

    “If cases double every 7 days we’ll reach 49,000 cases by mid October”

    Well, derrr!

    Anyone ask what happens if cases don’t double every 7 days?

    There is absolutely no chance of us reaching 50k cases a day by mid October. As the number of cases increase there are a series of factors which slow down the exponential element. People get more cautious and scared, there are fewer targets of opportunity for the virus, certain particularly vulnerable areas (such as care homes) will have special measures brought into effect etc.

    None of this means that we won't have a significant figure by then, quite probably at least half that figure and even 100 deaths a day a month later is something to be taken very seriously indeed. I just find it disappointing that the basic statistical models we had at the start of this (in terms of which the only people not to have had the virus by now would be anyone stuck on a space station) are still being used instead of laughed at.

    It seems that even stripping out the hyperbole this was a call to further action and that we will be hearing that from Boris tomorrow.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Boris Johnson should resign after briefing we should get back to the office just a few weeks ago. What an absolute dick

    You are just being silly again

    Are you calling Sturgeon, Drakeford, Foster, Macron, Merkel and everyone else to go as this is across all the UK and even worse at present in Europe
    It's sad you're now Johnson's fanboy again, each time you flip flop just makes your next flip look even less convincing
    You really need to grow up

    I'm only stating how I see it, there's no need to be rude Big G.

    You do tend to flip flop on Johnson, you've often "lost faith" and called for him to go, before then flip flopping back to supporting him.

    Just because I have pointed that out, there's no need to respond in this way. I've only been respectful to you, please do the same for me.
    Do not confuse my support for the conservative party and government with my desire to see Boris replaced

    Both are true
    But then you just asked me to grow up and were rude to me, please apologise. I called for Johnson to go as he was saying get back to the office, I don't recall any other leader saying that.
    Please can you show me a video of Boris saying get back to the office as opposed to get back to work.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12334881/boris-johnson-get-back-to-office-on-monday/

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53942542

    https://inews.co.uk/news/analysis/coronavirus-latest-boris-johnson-workers-returning-office-lockdown-615080

    It's obvious to anyone not off the deep end, he is responsible for this
    Not one of those links contains Boris saying to get back to the office even if you can work from home.

    The BBC article claims that a get back to the office campaign would be launched next week. I said at the time to you I bet it was bullshit and so it was. Its more than a week later now, where is that campaign? As I predicted at the time, no campaign was ever launched. Which is why you're quoting media bullshit that a campaign would be launched and not quoting the actual launch of an actual campaign that was never more than the figment of some people's imagination.
    So Boris meant to tell all those WFH to continue to WFH?

    Good call.

    Who was he telling to get back to work?
    Anyone who wasn't working but could work in a COVID-secure environment whether that was at a workplace or at home. As he said.
    Who wasn't working but could work at home if they decided to take his advice?
    There were people who couldn't work from home who could return to work.

    That never meant that every single person including those who could work from home should return to the office.
    Give me some examples.

    Your contention was that when he said go back to work he didn't mean go back to the office/workplace.

    So give me an example.
    The millions of people still on furlough at the time.

    The message was if you can work you should work. There were still millions of people on furlough. It is extremely narcissistic to think that meant that it was those already working who could WFH that were being spoken about and not the millions on furlough. 🙄
    Oh FFS Philip how much of a rewrite of history are you attempting?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/coronavirus/video-2209658/Video-Workers-urged-Boris-Johnson-office.html
    That's not saying everyone should get back. He specifically says that social distancing is important.

    He says if it is safe, have a conversation to see if it is safe and consider going back, but only if it is safe to do so.

    That is not remotely what you claimed.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:

    He's got a point, hasn't he? If it's doubling every week why hasn't it been doubling every week?
    There are journalism courses at a number of Unis. Assuming anyone who takes them actually does turn the subject into a career, do the syllabi include statistics?
    A statistic course will teach you that exponential increase doubling every week means that the numbers should..err.. double each week.
  • Boris Johnson should resign after briefing we should get back to the office just a few weeks ago. What an absolute dick

    You are just being silly again

    Are you calling Sturgeon, Drakeford, Foster, Macron, Merkel and everyone else to go as this is across all the UK and even worse at present in Europe
    It's sad you're now Johnson's fanboy again, each time you flip flop just makes your next flip look even less convincing
    You really need to grow up

    I'm only stating how I see it, there's no need to be rude Big G.

    You do tend to flip flop on Johnson, you've often "lost faith" and called for him to go, before then flip flopping back to supporting him.

    Just because I have pointed that out, there's no need to respond in this way. I've only been respectful to you, please do the same for me.
    Do not confuse my support for the conservative party and government with my desire to see Boris replaced

    Both are true
    But then you just asked me to grow up and were rude to me, please apologise. I called for Johnson to go as he was saying get back to the office, I don't recall any other leader saying that.
    Please can you show me a video of Boris saying get back to the office as opposed to get back to work.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12334881/boris-johnson-get-back-to-office-on-monday/

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53942542

    https://inews.co.uk/news/analysis/coronavirus-latest-boris-johnson-workers-returning-office-lockdown-615080

    It's obvious to anyone not off the deep end, he is responsible for this
    Not one of those links contains Boris saying to get back to the office even if you can work from home.

    The BBC article claims that a get back to the office campaign would be launched next week. I said at the time to you I bet it was bullshit and so it was. Its more than a week later now, where is that campaign? As I predicted at the time, no campaign was ever launched. Which is why you're quoting media bullshit that a campaign would be launched and not quoting the actual launch of an actual campaign that was never more than the figment of some people's imagination.
    Philip, if it was the other way around, you would be calling for Keir Starmer to resign. So if you'll forgive me, I am going to take your thoughts on this with a grain of salt
    If it was the other way around I'd be quoting what Keir Starmer actually said rather than just saying he said it but unable to quote when he did, because that clear fact is he did not.

    And no quoting media garbage that he "will" say it but then we know he never does is not the same thing.

    If you can only criticise Boris for saying things he never said then obviously Boris has done a fantastic job in your eyes. Because you're incapable of finding things he's actually said or done and criticising him for that, so you're inventing fictitious things to condemn him for instead.
    Philip, I can tell you specifically that anyone working for or around the MoD has come under direct pressure, down from the Government, to physically return to the office.

    Either Boris is fine with this, or his advisers have run off the rails and are making people do things without his desire, which seems unlikely.
    No you can't. Boris has never ever ever asked people to return to the office. Philip says so and that is the final authority on such matters
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    TOPPING said:

    FF43 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Just what I noticed. There is no upward blue column trend over the past few days. They've just bolted on some scary red columns.

    Not to say it wouldn't but really, we have eyes also.
    It's not flat as claimed by Dan Hodges. It could be a linear increase. Actually it looks like a sudden jump in cases in early September is hiding the normal exponential curve for epidemics, making it look more linear. In a week or so that bump will essentially disappear and we will be in the red zone.
    Ah I see. It's hiding. Gotit thanks.
    Added explanation: Increased exposure (schools, Eat out to Help out, return to offices, houseparties etc) is a one-off increase; re-infections are exponential increase.
    Aren't all those events also re-infections?
    After the initial bump of more infections due to restrictions being lifted, yes. Point is, this isn't a perfect system, there will be environmental factors lifting the curve up and knocking it down in places. The curve is almost certainly an exponential one at the core, because that's how epidemics work.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    RobD said:

    He's got a point, hasn't he? If it's doubling every week why hasn't it been doubling every week?
    There are journalism courses at a number of Unis. Assuming anyone who takes them actually does turn the subject into a career, do the syllabi include statistics?
    On the empirical evidence of their collective output over the past six months, no.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,885
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1307990810231738368

    At best, Eat Out To Help Out is going to have been a complete waste of time

    The media obsession with Eat Out To Help Out potentially being a big casual factor is a bit like the Grouse shooting stuff. Foreign holidays where people have gone partying and people rammed into pubs / beer gardens is far risker than 4 people from the same household sitting quietly having a meal in a restaurant.

    Has there been one recorded "super spreading" event from a trip to Pizza Express reported? In comparison, the media has been full of ones from 300 people rammed in a pub beer garden leading to 10s of confirmed cases and you only have to look at the rate of positive cases among the footballers returning from foreign holidays to see that was a huge problem.
    Except that round here some places were rammed with extra tables and total strangers sharing tables.
    It wasn't gentle dining. It was pile them in. Get them fed, get them out and get more in.
    Here too. Test and Trace has published curiously little on situations where transmissions have occurred. We can only speculate as a result.

    Unless their data is total shite, they should be able to enlighten us, and then we would get better advice and more compliance.
    They might not be tracing backwards to source, only forwards to break onward transmission. There's been some discussion of this in Ireland. This thread is interesting.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/President_MU/status/1306908075161518081
    They should be able to give figures like: X% of transmissions occurred at peoples homes, Y% imported from abroad, Z% in pubs etc.

    In order to trace, they need to give their contacts, and pubs, churches etc are required to keep a 21 day register. Why, if not for tracing purposes?

    Either their data is very poor, or it shows something that they do not want to reveal, possibly both.
    It's odd because the Scots seem able to do it. Vide reasons given for Aberdeen (pubs) and Clydeside (home meetings).
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    He's got a point, hasn't he? If it's doubling every week why hasn't it been doubling every week?
    There are journalism courses at a number of Unis. Assuming anyone who takes them actually does turn the subject into a career, do the syllabi include statistics?
    A statistic course will teach you that exponential increase doubling every week means that the numbers should..err.. double each week.
    Very true.It was clear to me when I dealt with medical reps that many had less of a grasp of statistics than a political campaigner (especially, I'm rather sad to say, a LD one.)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    He's got a point, hasn't he? If it's doubling every week why hasn't it been doubling every week?
    There are journalism courses at a number of Unis. Assuming anyone who takes them actually does turn the subject into a career, do the syllabi include statistics?
    On the empirical evidence of their collective output over the past six months, no.
    Who can forget their surprise at the existence of the ONS.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604
    I think generally people have lowered their guard somewhat in the number of people they mingle with. I know I have, even though I take precautions and follow the government rules. I observe that general relaxing in behaviour in others locally and in the media.

    We are going to have to raise our guard again and mingle less. I suspect the next government rules will be focussed on less mingling between households, particularly indoors. I can live with that, even though I live alone.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    DavidL said:

    alex_ said:

    “If cases double every 7 days we’ll reach 49,000 cases by mid October”

    Well, derrr!

    Anyone ask what happens if cases don’t double every 7 days?

    There is absolutely no chance of us reaching 50k cases a day by mid October. As the number of cases increase there are a series of factors which slow down the exponential element. People get more cautious and scared, there are fewer targets of opportunity for the virus, certain particularly vulnerable areas (such as care homes) will have special measures brought into effect etc.

    None of this means that we won't have a significant figure by then, quite probably at least half that figure and even 100 deaths a day a month later is something to be taken very seriously indeed. I just find it disappointing that the basic statistical models we had at the start of this (in terms of which the only people not to have had the virus by now would be anyone stuck on a space station) are still being used instead of laughed at.

    It seems that even stripping out the hyperbole this was a call to further action and that we will be hearing that from Boris tomorrow.
    I don't see a problem here. They are telling us that it WILL be 50K cases unless we change our behaviour. Their aim is to get us to change our behaviour.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Boris Johnson should resign after briefing we should get back to the office just a few weeks ago. What an absolute dick

    You are just being silly again

    Are you calling Sturgeon, Drakeford, Foster, Macron, Merkel and everyone else to go as this is across all the UK and even worse at present in Europe
    It's sad you're now Johnson's fanboy again, each time you flip flop just makes your next flip look even less convincing
    You really need to grow up

    I'm only stating how I see it, there's no need to be rude Big G.

    You do tend to flip flop on Johnson, you've often "lost faith" and called for him to go, before then flip flopping back to supporting him.

    Just because I have pointed that out, there's no need to respond in this way. I've only been respectful to you, please do the same for me.
    Do not confuse my support for the conservative party and government with my desire to see Boris replaced

    Both are true
    But then you just asked me to grow up and were rude to me, please apologise. I called for Johnson to go as he was saying get back to the office, I don't recall any other leader saying that.
    Please can you show me a video of Boris saying get back to the office as opposed to get back to work.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12334881/boris-johnson-get-back-to-office-on-monday/

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53942542

    https://inews.co.uk/news/analysis/coronavirus-latest-boris-johnson-workers-returning-office-lockdown-615080

    It's obvious to anyone not off the deep end, he is responsible for this
    Not one of those links contains Boris saying to get back to the office even if you can work from home.

    The BBC article claims that a get back to the office campaign would be launched next week. I said at the time to you I bet it was bullshit and so it was. Its more than a week later now, where is that campaign? As I predicted at the time, no campaign was ever launched. Which is why you're quoting media bullshit that a campaign would be launched and not quoting the actual launch of an actual campaign that was never more than the figment of some people's imagination.
    So Boris meant to tell all those WFH to continue to WFH?

    Good call.

    Who was he telling to get back to work?
    Anyone who wasn't working but could work in a COVID-secure environment whether that was at a workplace or at home. As he said.
    Who wasn't working but could work at home if they decided to take his advice?
    There were people who couldn't work from home who could return to work.

    That never meant that every single person including those who could work from home should return to the office.
    Give me some examples.

    Your contention was that when he said go back to work he didn't mean go back to the office/workplace.

    So give me an example.
    The millions of people still on furlough at the time.

    The message was if you can work you should work. There were still millions of people on furlough. It is extremely narcissistic to think that meant that it was those already working who could WFH that were being spoken about and not the millions on furlough. 🙄
    So when he said get back to work, he meant that the employers should stop people on furlough and get them in?

    Give me an example, a profession or job, where this would be possible and why.

    TIA
    The statistics show that many sectors of the economy have been reopening with people getting back to work. Construction, hospitality, education and many more have been reopening and/or picking up in recent months.

    Since its a perennial favourite and you want a name then I will give you one example: My local Nando's reopened.
    Nando's opened because it is a restaurant and they were allowed to reopen and the people returning there were in effect going back into the office.

    You said this: "Please can you show me a video of Boris saying get back to the office as opposed to get back to work."

    So in effect with Nando's that's exactly what happened. They went back to the office. Taking Boris' advice.

    Or could Nando's have reopened with all its staff working from home?

    What other examples do you have of people able to go back to work but not in the office/workplace where previously they were furloughed?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464
    Barnesian said:

    I think generally people have lowered their guard somewhat in the number of people they mingle with. I know I have, even though I take precautions and follow the government rules. I observe that general relaxing in behaviour in others locally and in the media.

    We are going to have to raise our guard again and mingle less. I suspect the next government rules will be focussed on less mingling between households, particularly indoors. I can live with that, even though I live alone.

    I agree; my U3a friends, all older are becoming more cautious again. Zoom is going to do even better. And my family is thinking seriously about how Granny and Grandpa are going to be looked after at Christmas; I'm pleased to think that it's assumed we won't be left alone.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1307990810231738368

    At best, Eat Out To Help Out is going to have been a complete waste of time

    The media obsession with Eat Out To Help Out potentially being a big casual factor is a bit like the Grouse shooting stuff. Foreign holidays where people have gone partying and people rammed into pubs / beer gardens is far risker than 4 people from the same household sitting quietly having a meal in a restaurant.

    Has there been one recorded "super spreading" event from a trip to Pizza Express reported? In comparison, the media has been full of ones from 300 people rammed in a pub beer garden leading to 10s of confirmed cases and you only have to look at the rate of positive cases among the footballers returning from foreign holidays to see that was a huge problem.
    Except that round here some places were rammed with extra tables and total strangers sharing tables.
    It wasn't gentle dining. It was pile them in. Get them fed, get them out and get more in.
    Here too. Test and Trace has published curiously little on situations where transmissions have occurred. We can only speculate as a result.

    Unless their data is total shite, they should be able to enlighten us, and then we would get better advice and more compliance.
    They might not be tracing backwards to source, only forwards to break onward transmission. There's been some discussion of this in Ireland. This thread is interesting.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/President_MU/status/1306908075161518081
    They should be able to give figures like: X% of transmissions occurred at peoples homes, Y% imported from abroad, Z% in pubs etc.

    In order to trace, they need to give their contacts, and pubs, churches etc are required to keep a 21 day register. Why, if not for tracing purposes?

    Either their data is very poor, or it shows something that they do not want to reveal, possibly both.
    It's odd because the Scots seem able to do it. Vide reasons given for Aberdeen (pubs) and Clydeside (home meetings).
    Because if the government had come out straight and said it was Eid parties and Friday prayers...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    So by far the biggest rise in cases amongst those in their 20s followed by those in their 30s, it is young people who are most ignoring the rules therefore
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited September 2020
    It's going to be pretty grim. Social distancing and avoiding indoors contact aren't too bad, for many people, in summer, especially as we have had a warm and dry summer. Queuing up outside shops in sleet and rain is a different kettle of fish altogether, and picnics in the park in December are no-one's idea of fun.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Boris Johnson should resign after briefing we should get back to the office just a few weeks ago. What an absolute dick

    You are just being silly again

    Are you calling Sturgeon, Drakeford, Foster, Macron, Merkel and everyone else to go as this is across all the UK and even worse at present in Europe
    It's sad you're now Johnson's fanboy again, each time you flip flop just makes your next flip look even less convincing
    You really need to grow up

    I'm only stating how I see it, there's no need to be rude Big G.

    You do tend to flip flop on Johnson, you've often "lost faith" and called for him to go, before then flip flopping back to supporting him.

    Just because I have pointed that out, there's no need to respond in this way. I've only been respectful to you, please do the same for me.
    Do not confuse my support for the conservative party and government with my desire to see Boris replaced

    Both are true
    But then you just asked me to grow up and were rude to me, please apologise. I called for Johnson to go as he was saying get back to the office, I don't recall any other leader saying that.
    Please can you show me a video of Boris saying get back to the office as opposed to get back to work.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12334881/boris-johnson-get-back-to-office-on-monday/

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53942542

    https://inews.co.uk/news/analysis/coronavirus-latest-boris-johnson-workers-returning-office-lockdown-615080

    It's obvious to anyone not off the deep end, he is responsible for this
    Not one of those links contains Boris saying to get back to the office even if you can work from home.

    The BBC article claims that a get back to the office campaign would be launched next week. I said at the time to you I bet it was bullshit and so it was. Its more than a week later now, where is that campaign? As I predicted at the time, no campaign was ever launched. Which is why you're quoting media bullshit that a campaign would be launched and not quoting the actual launch of an actual campaign that was never more than the figment of some people's imagination.
    So Boris meant to tell all those WFH to continue to WFH?

    Good call.

    Who was he telling to get back to work?
    Anyone who wasn't working but could work in a COVID-secure environment whether that was at a workplace or at home. As he said.
    Who wasn't working but could work at home if they decided to take his advice?
    There were people who couldn't work from home who could return to work.

    That never meant that every single person including those who could work from home should return to the office.
    Give me some examples.

    Your contention was that when he said go back to work he didn't mean go back to the office/workplace.

    So give me an example.
    The millions of people still on furlough at the time.

    The message was if you can work you should work. There were still millions of people on furlough. It is extremely narcissistic to think that meant that it was those already working who could WFH that were being spoken about and not the millions on furlough. 🙄
    No, it was go to work (if you are currently working from home). It was jokingly called "Save Pret".

    I know my memory is not what it was, but as it was less than a month ago even I can remember that.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464
    HYUFD said:

    So by far the biggest rise in cases amongst those in their 20s followed by those in their 30s, it is young people who are most ignoring the rules therefore
    It's young people who are most likely to want to have close associations with other young people outside their own households.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,434
    edited September 2020
    RobD said:

    He's got a point, hasn't he? If it's doubling every week why hasn't it been doubling every week?
    You would expect a degree of random variation in the statistics. There will also be a point at which the testing system can't test enough to keep up with the increase in the case numbers.

    But, no. The twitter journalists know better than the scientists.

    It's exactly the same with the global warming arguments - why is it colder today than yesterday? etc, et-bloody-cetera.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    alex_ said:

    “If cases double every 7 days we’ll reach 49,000 cases by mid October”

    Well, derrr!

    Anyone ask what happens if cases don’t double every 7 days?

    There is absolutely no chance of us reaching 50k cases a day by mid October. As the number of cases increase there are a series of factors which slow down the exponential element. People get more cautious and scared, there are fewer targets of opportunity for the virus, certain particularly vulnerable areas (such as care homes) will have special measures brought into effect etc.

    None of this means that we won't have a significant figure by then, quite probably at least half that figure and even 100 deaths a day a month later is something to be taken very seriously indeed. I just find it disappointing that the basic statistical models we had at the start of this (in terms of which the only people not to have had the virus by now would be anyone stuck on a space station) are still being used instead of laughed at.

    It seems that even stripping out the hyperbole this was a call to further action and that we will be hearing that from Boris tomorrow.
    I don't see a problem here. They are telling us that it WILL be 50K cases unless we change our behaviour. Their aim is to get us to change our behaviour.
    The problem is that it is not true. And therefore we are inevitably going to over react in the same way that we did with the original lockdown. If we are looking at a much more realistic, nuanced model we can also have a more realistic, nuanced response.

    We need to reinforce hand, face, space. We need to stop idiots going on foreign holidays and coming back here to spread infection by mandatory, enforced quarantine. We need to think hard about risk vectors such as public transport. We will have to accept more sport without spectators, disappointing as that is. We do need to move to more risk segmentation where some vulnerable groups are much more restricted than others.

    But we don't need to shut down all the restaurants and pubs again, we don't need to stop people going to University or school (although the former will be our biggest challenge), we don't want to close down the parts of our economy we have got moving.

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:

    So by far the biggest rise in cases amongst those in their 20s followed by those in their 30s, it is young people who are most ignoring the rules therefore
    Obviously. Who is disputing that?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    Boris Johnson should resign after briefing we should get back to the office just a few weeks ago. What an absolute dick

    You are just being silly again

    Are you calling Sturgeon, Drakeford, Foster, Macron, Merkel and everyone else to go as this is across all the UK and even worse at present in Europe
    It's sad you're now Johnson's fanboy again, each time you flip flop just makes your next flip look even less convincing
    You really need to grow up

    I'm only stating how I see it, there's no need to be rude Big G.

    You do tend to flip flop on Johnson, you've often "lost faith" and called for him to go, before then flip flopping back to supporting him.

    Just because I have pointed that out, there's no need to respond in this way. I've only been respectful to you, please do the same for me.
    Do not confuse my support for the conservative party and government with my desire to see Boris replaced

    Both are true
    Support for the government is support for Johnson.
    If you think I am going to turn against the conservative party you are going to be very disappointed
    Not bothered one way or the other Johnson is the government the two are indivisible
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1307990810231738368

    At best, Eat Out To Help Out is going to have been a complete waste of time

    The media obsession with Eat Out To Help Out potentially being a big casual factor is a bit like the Grouse shooting stuff. Foreign holidays where people have gone partying and people rammed into pubs / beer gardens is far risker than 4 people from the same household sitting quietly having a meal in a restaurant.

    Has there been one recorded "super spreading" event from a trip to Pizza Express reported? In comparison, the media has been full of ones from 300 people rammed in a pub beer garden leading to 10s of confirmed cases and you only have to look at the rate of positive cases among the footballers returning from foreign holidays to see that was a huge problem.
    Except that round here some places were rammed with extra tables and total strangers sharing tables.
    It wasn't gentle dining. It was pile them in. Get them fed, get them out and get more in.
    Here too. Test and Trace has published curiously little on situations where transmissions have occurred. We can only speculate as a result.

    Unless their data is total shite, they should be able to enlighten us, and then we would get better advice and more compliance.
    They might not be tracing backwards to source, only forwards to break onward transmission. There's been some discussion of this in Ireland. This thread is interesting.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/President_MU/status/1306908075161518081
    They should be able to give figures like: X% of transmissions occurred at peoples homes, Y% imported from abroad, Z% in pubs etc.

    In order to trace, they need to give their contacts, and pubs, churches etc are required to keep a 21 day register. Why, if not for tracing purposes?

    Either their data is very poor, or it shows something that they do not want to reveal, possibly both.
    Read the twitter thread - he goes into those sorts of issues better than I can.
  • guybrushguybrush Posts: 257
    edited September 2020
    Coming in a bit late to the discussion regarding the railways.

    Not surprising, unfortunately, to see the Tory candidate reusing the press release on Tube station sponsorship. Is that really his big vision for transport? TfL is pretty resistant to this, for a good reason. Changing all the signage, publicity materials, on train announcements across the networks gets bloody expensive. You also risk creating confusion for tourists, and in operational communication. It's been done for short periods of time before using vinyl stickers (Buxon water at London Bridge?), but those get tatty quite quickly. The sums of money involved would be a drop in the ocean compared to TfL's deficit, energies are better spent getting a long term funding settlement. But that would require grown up bi-partisan thinking from the mayorly and government, so I won't hold my breath.

    On the mainline, well, it's clear that the management contracts aren't a long term solution, but a decent stop gap for the moment. Another industry re-structure in the middle of a pandemic isn't a great idea I'd suggest. Yeah, they could transfer all the TOC employees over to the DfT. I'd expect efficiency and punctuality to slowly slide as the decent managers leave for elsewhere, and the profit motive is removed. The unions would love the opportunity to create havoc and play politics on a broader front though.

    If I was in charge, I'd move towards a devolved vertically integrated transport authority model (mini BRs, if you like) with a mix of directly operated and concessions. I'd also take this once in a lifetime opportunity to shaft the unions, do a complete reset of the IR machinery. Classify rail as an essential service, fire and re-hire new contracts BA style if required. Unions can strike if they want, lets see if anyone notices. They still think it's the 70's and have overplayed their hand in stifling change and modernisation of outdated practises. Might sound a bit harsh, but what are 80 seat Conservative majorities for?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,118
    edited September 2020
    The eggheads have this morning laid out that this is going to be a problem for at least the next 6 months.

    Whatever the government decide to do, it has to be clear and consistent (as possible) AND everybody made aware these rules are going to be set in stone for all that time. They need to be getting ahead of the curve and saying no, there won't be any skiing holidays, no there won't be any big New Year Eve piss ups etc.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    HYUFD said:

    So by far the biggest rise in cases amongst those in their 20s followed by those in their 30s, it is young people who are most ignoring the rules therefore
    Obviously. Who is disputing that?
    They are also the category least at risk, over 70s and over 80s who are much more at risk are still acting more cautiously with very little rise in cases.

    So just proceeding like that may be the way forward rather than another full lockdown
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    HYUFD said:

    So by far the biggest rise in cases amongst those in their 20s followed by those in their 30s, it is young people who are most ignoring the rules therefore
    That is unfair.
    To take obvious points:

    Young people are disproportionately employed in public facing industries and are far more exposed to the risk of infection than older people.
    Younger people inevitably took disproportionate advantage of EOTHO and other relaxations. This does not mean that they broke the rules (though some no doubt did), they simply took more risks within the rules.
    Younger people are now being encouraged to return to their studies in huge "bubbles" which are frankly not much short of nonsensical.

    The flaw in your reasoning is that compliance with the rules is sufficient to avoid infection. It isn't.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Interesting Morning Consult polling paper on Shy Trumptons (and Shy Bidenites)

    https://go.morningconsult.com/rs/850-TAA-511/images/200921_Mode_Effects_2020_Morning_Consult.pdf

    https://morningconsult.com/form/shy-trump-2020/

    N.B. Headline figures for the poll are 55/45 (online) and 56/44 (phone)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    alex_ said:

    “If cases double every 7 days we’ll reach 49,000 cases by mid October”

    Well, derrr!

    Anyone ask what happens if cases don’t double every 7 days?

    There is absolutely no chance of us reaching 50k cases a day by mid October. As the number of cases increase there are a series of factors which slow down the exponential element. People get more cautious and scared, there are fewer targets of opportunity for the virus, certain particularly vulnerable areas (such as care homes) will have special measures brought into effect etc.

    None of this means that we won't have a significant figure by then, quite probably at least half that figure and even 100 deaths a day a month later is something to be taken very seriously indeed. I just find it disappointing that the basic statistical models we had at the start of this (in terms of which the only people not to have had the virus by now would be anyone stuck on a space station) are still being used instead of laughed at.

    It seems that even stripping out the hyperbole this was a call to further action and that we will be hearing that from Boris tomorrow.
    I don't see a problem here. They are telling us that it WILL be 50K cases unless we change our behaviour. Their aim is to get us to change our behaviour.
    When it took off last time (from a low base) new daily recorded cases went from 152 on 16th March to 6,199 on 5th April. There were 3,899 new cases yesterday. We are the same. The virus is the same. There is not much immunity out there. So unless we hunker down ... BOOM.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    It's going to be pretty grim. Social distancing and avoiding indoors contact aren't too bad, for many people, in summer, especially as we have had a warm and dry summer. Queuing up outside shops in sleet and rain is a different kettle of fish altogether, and picnics in the park in December are no-one's idea of fun.

    Will nobody think of the pickpockets? They are having a hell of a time.
  • Hmm just had a thought. I wonder if this theatre is a lead-up to Boris announcing that there's going to need to be some sort of extension to the Brexit transition period? Because going into that chaos with stricter lockdown rules is going to be a nightmare.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Scott_xP said:
    As I said I can't be the only one who really resents government by Chris Whitty.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    So by far the biggest rise in cases amongst those in their 20s followed by those in their 30s, it is young people who are most ignoring the rules therefore
    That is unfair.
    To take obvious points:

    Young people are disproportionately employed in public facing industries and are far more exposed to the risk of infection than older people.
    Younger people inevitably took disproportionate advantage of EOTHO and other relaxations. This does not mean that they broke the rules (though some no doubt did), they simply took more risks within the rules.
    Younger people are now being encouraged to return to their studies in huge "bubbles" which are frankly not much short of nonsensical.

    The flaw in your reasoning is that compliance with the rules is sufficient to avoid infection. It isn't.
    Young people are also the ones most likely to have been holding house parties, congregating in groups beyond 6 etc.

    However given they have a death rate of less than 0.5% even if they get Covid that is hardly surprising, many young people are now deciding it is a miniscule risk for them so the rules can be ignored, older people however are still being much more cautious and rightly so as they at much greater risk if they do catch Covid.

    So open up universities and bars if young people want to go but make nursing homes into fortresses and ensure if they want to go out they cannot then see Grandma beyond Zoom as a result
  • I think it is probably easier to report which areas aren't in "local lockdown".
  • It's going to be pretty grim. Social distancing and avoiding indoors contact aren't too bad, for many people, in summer, especially as we have had a warm and dry summer. Queuing up outside shops in sleet and rain is a different kettle of fish altogether, and picnics in the park in December are no-one's idea of fun.

    The supermarkets (Tesco & Sainsbury's at least) have trialled a queuing system that allows you to remain in your car until it your turn to go into the shop.

    Obviously this system is reliant on people having a mobile phone and car.
  • HYUFD said:

    So by far the biggest rise in cases amongst those in their 20s followed by those in their 30s, it is young people who are most ignoring the rules therefore
    Young also most likely to work in sectors like restaurants, pubs, retail that reopened over the summer, often as a direct result of government policy. They might have picked it up at work or off housemates who got it at work. Shouldn't simply assume it's selfish behaviour on their part. Although I don't blame someone in their twenties for socialising over the summer. The government message in August was go out and have fun. And you are only young once. Just don't visit grannie.
  • TOPPING said:

    Scott_xP said:
    As I said I can't be the only one who really resents government by Chris Whitty.
    Its hardly Whitty's fault that the PM is a gutless yellow coward.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    edited September 2020
    2016 gold standard Midwest and rustbelt swing state pollster Trafalgar group has Biden 2% ahead in Pennsylvania, confirming whatever happens in November Trump will win by a smaller margin than he did against Hillary even if he is re elected and also that Biden has a better chance of EC victory than Hillary did.

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1307839016646184960?s=20

    Trafalgar still have Trump ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan in their last polls however (though they did have Biden ahead in one earlier Michigan poll)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    DavidL said:

    It's going to be pretty grim. Social distancing and avoiding indoors contact aren't too bad, for many people, in summer, especially as we have had a warm and dry summer. Queuing up outside shops in sleet and rain is a different kettle of fish altogether, and picnics in the park in December are no-one's idea of fun.

    Will nobody think of the pickpockets? They are having a hell of a time.
    Will nobody think of the lawyers defending the pickpockets?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    Put my house on the market on Thursday last week. Viewings Friday and over the weekend. Formal offer for the asking price just received :smiley:

    It's the shiny new red front door what's sold it for you.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_xP said:
    As I said I can't be the only one who really resents government by Chris Whitty.
    Its hardly Whitty's fault that the PM is a gutless yellow coward.
    That is true.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677



    I am going to have to fork out for a Peloton aren't I....

    They are garbage that will break if you can push more watts than Steven Hawking. You're better off with a Kickr Bike + Zwift.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    So by far the biggest rise in cases amongst those in their 20s followed by those in their 30s, it is young people who are most ignoring the rules therefore
    That is unfair.
    To take obvious points:

    Young people are disproportionately employed in public facing industries and are far more exposed to the risk of infection than older people.
    Younger people inevitably took disproportionate advantage of EOTHO and other relaxations. This does not mean that they broke the rules (though some no doubt did), they simply took more risks within the rules.
    Younger people are now being encouraged to return to their studies in huge "bubbles" which are frankly not much short of nonsensical.

    The flaw in your reasoning is that compliance with the rules is sufficient to avoid infection. It isn't.
    Young people are also the ones most likely to have been holding house parties, congregating in groups beyond 6 etc.

    However given they have a death rate of less than 0.5% even if they get Covid that is hardly surprising, many young people are now deciding it is a miniscule risk for them so the rules can be ignored, older people however are still being much more cautious and rightly so as they at much greater risk if they do catch Covid.

    So open up universities and bars if young people want to go but make nursing homes into fortresses and ensure if they want to go out they cannot then see Grandma beyond Zoom as a result
    I agree segmentation is the way ahead.
    Some of the house parties were an inevitable consequence of restrictions on pubs etc. So in Scotland, at least, pubs were not allowed to play music as we didn't want people shouting over it with heads in close proximity. The result was a lack of atmosphere (or actually an improvement for people like me with dodgy hearing) and people drinking in flats with music to be shouted over etc.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_xP said:
    As I said I can't be the only one who really resents government by Chris Whitty.
    Whitty and Vallance didn;t even take questions. No politician there.

    I mean, come on
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Congratulations @RochdalePioneers!
  • Pulpstar said:

    Put my house on the market on Thursday last week. Viewings Friday and over the weekend. Formal offer for the asking price just received :smiley:

    It's the shiny new red front door what's sold it for you.
    That and the new boiler and new ensuite. Had a look at selling up last year - value has gone up £25k in 14 months.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Hmm just had a thought. I wonder if this theatre is a lead-up to Boris announcing that there's going to need to be some sort of extension to the Brexit transition period? Because going into that chaos with stricter lockdown rules is going to be a nightmare.

    That would be far to sensible, what about farage?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Hmm just had a thought. I wonder if this theatre is a lead-up to Boris announcing that there's going to need to be some sort of extension to the Brexit transition period? Because going into that chaos with stricter lockdown rules is going to be a nightmare.

    Farage has discovered his anti lockdown boots and if there's an extension then he will be back big time.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,206

    MaxPB said:

    As long as they aren't making a profit it's not an issue is it?

    No you misunderstand me, the Government guarantees a profit.
    Its not "profit". They are paid a management fee. If first/MTR wasn't running the service then it may have to go to "Operator of Last Resort". Which is Arup/Ernst & Young/SNC. Who get paid a management fee.

    Its not like you get DfT's time free - thats why they outsource. And with the increasingly stupid decisions DfT have been making you really don't want the civil service running the service directly.
    Management fee is a guaranteed profit, no? They get paid, even if they do a piss poor job. In the long run they might lose the fee but they get a paid a fee.

    I just say, cut out the middle man altogether.
    1. Its costs money to manage stuff
    2. The choices are pay the incumbent a fee to run things, or pay set up costs and then pay the OLR partnership to run them, or pay set up costs to hire/staff/pay civil servants to run them
    3. The "piss poor job" is usually directly related to the cretins in the DfT. The very last people who should be in direct charge are the people responsible for the various timetable fiascos and train procurement fiascos etc
    There are two major problems with the UK railway system. One is that it's the last bastion of 70s style unionism, the other is the dead hand of the Dft trying to micromanage things it doesn't understand.

    Handing more power to the Dft is unlikely to help with either problem.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    It's going to be pretty grim. Social distancing and avoiding indoors contact aren't too bad, for many people, in summer, especially as we have had a warm and dry summer. Queuing up outside shops in sleet and rain is a different kettle of fish altogether, and picnics in the park in December are no-one's idea of fun.

    The supermarkets (Tesco & Sainsbury's at least) have trialled a queuing system that allows you to remain in your car until it your turn to go into the shop.

    Obviously this system is reliant on people having a mobile phone and car.
    My nearest Tesco hasn’t bothered with a queue for months. I haven’t been since the NE lockdown so will be interesting to see if its reintroduced.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_xP said:
    As I said I can't be the only one who really resents government by Chris Whitty.
    The government has probably learned by now that if they put politicians front and centre then all they'll get are toddler-grade questions about Perugia.
  • HYUFD said:
    He said 20,000 in a very bad year. Its normally half that.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002

    Hmm just had a thought. I wonder if this theatre is a lead-up to Boris announcing that there's going to need to be some sort of extension to the Brexit transition period? Because going into that chaos with stricter lockdown rules is going to be a nightmare.

    That is deeply, deeply cynical.

    Almost certainly.
  • Hmm just had a thought. I wonder if this theatre is a lead-up to Boris announcing that there's going to need to be some sort of extension to the Brexit transition period? Because going into that chaos with stricter lockdown rules is going to be a nightmare.

    I know Johnson is shameless at running against his previous statements, but I think the Parliamentary Conservative Party will hold him to his previous statements that a No Deal exit would represent a good result for Britain.

    Even if he wanted to extend transition they'd turf him out faster than you can say, "Graham Brady's letter box."
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_xP said:
    As I said I can't be the only one who really resents government by Chris Whitty.
    There's a significant upside with having Chris fronting things instead of Johnson, though, and that is the absence of distracting bullshit such as "world beating track and trace by next Tuesday" or "Operation Moonshot to test everybody in continuous real time by the Tuesday after" or "we're turning the tide" or "it will be all over by Christmas" etc etc.

    This allows a person watching (e.g. me) to concentrate better and to absorb and process the more important data and conclusions.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,118
    edited September 2020
    There were some interesting take aways from the presentation. Witty and Valance don't seem to be convinced by the idea of T-Cell immunity, they don't believe having had COVID and produced antibodies means you are actually immune for all that long and they don't think the virus has become less dangerous.

    If correct, all quite sobering...that basically come Christmas everybody could well be "in-play" for catching it and although improvements in treatment, still risk across the whole population.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Hmm just had a thought. I wonder if this theatre is a lead-up to Boris announcing that there's going to need to be some sort of extension to the Brexit transition period? Because going into that chaos with stricter lockdown rules is going to be a nightmare.

    That is deeply, deeply cynical.

    Almost certainly.
    Absolutely not. There cannot be any extension of the transition period regardless of the pox because unprepared no deal absolutely cannot create any problems whatsoever. So why delay?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    edited September 2020

    Hmm just had a thought. I wonder if this theatre is a lead-up to Boris announcing that there's going to need to be some sort of extension to the Brexit transition period? Because going into that chaos with stricter lockdown rules is going to be a nightmare.

    Farage has discovered his anti lockdown boots and if there's an extension then he will be back big time.
    5% of 2019 Tory voters are now voting Brexit Party according to the latest Yougov
    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1307990465065758721?s=20
  • HYUFD said:
    What point is he trying to make here? If Covid was going to kill 20k people a year without significant suppression, we wouldnt implement significant suppression. The problem is it would kill something around 100k-500k people a year if we did nothing, not 20k - this is fairly obvious from the numbers with suppression which are already much more than 20k.

    Is he just thick or does randomly spouting facts that are not relevant count for argument these days.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405

    There were some interesting take aways from the presentation. Witty and Valance don't seem to be convinced by the idea of T-Cell immunity,
    they don't believe having had COVID and produced antibodies means you are actually immune for all that long they don't think the virus has become less dangerous.

    if you can get reinfected then we have a major problems on our hands as no vaccine will work long term...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    HYUFD said:

    2016 gold standard Midwest and rustbelt swing state pollster Trafalgar group has Biden 2% ahead in Pennsylvania, confirming whatever happens in November Trump will win by a smaller margin than he did against Hillary even if he is re elected and also that Biden has a better chance of EC victory than Hillary did.

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1307839016646184960?s=20

    Trafalgar still have Trump ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan in their last polls however (though they did have Biden ahead in one earlier Michigan poll)

    Gold standard Trafalgar can't get Trump ahead in PA you say ?
  • eek said:

    There were some interesting take aways from the presentation. Witty and Valance don't seem to be convinced by the idea of T-Cell immunity,
    they don't believe having had COVID and produced antibodies means you are actually immune for all that long they don't think the virus has become less dangerous.

    if you can get reinfected then we have a major problems on our hands as no vaccine will work long term...
    I think many scientists have said that repeated regular vaccination may well be required, especially for the first generation of them.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    There were some interesting take aways from the presentation. Witty and Valance don't seem to be convinced by the idea of T-Cell immunity, they don't believe having had COVID and produced antibodies means you are actually immune for all that long and they don't think the virus has become less dangerous.

    If correct, all quite sobering...that basically come Christmas everybody could well be "in-play" for catching it and although improvements in treatment, still risk across the whole population.

    When I first posted that Whitty and Vallance's main aim is to maintain their vast and unaccountable power for as long as possible it was a bit of a kite flyer.

    They are not doing anything much to convince me otherwise though.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,052
    MaxPB said:

    EBRD commits to the UK for the long term even in a no deal scenario. Macron must be fuming, he's been courting them for months.

    Getting one over on the French like that pretty much makes leaving the EU worthwhile by itself.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    Any chance of a market on this?

    FWIW I think Boris will announce:

    * An extension to the furlough scheme;
    * restrictions on University accommodation, possibly to foreign students only;
    *another tranche of grants for the lower earning self employed.
    *The cancellation of Christmas

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    DavidL said:

    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:


    There is absolutely no chance of us reaching 50k cases a day by mid October. As the number of cases increase there are a series of factors which slow down the exponential element. People get more cautious and scared, there are fewer targets of opportunity for the virus, certain particularly vulnerable areas (such as care homes) will have special measures brought into effect etc.

    None of this means that we won't have a significant figure by then, quite probably at least half that figure and even 100 deaths a day a month later is something to be taken very seriously indeed. I just find it disappointing that the basic statistical models we had at the start of this (in terms of which the only people not to have had the virus by now would be anyone stuck on a space station) are still being used instead of laughed at.

    It seems that even stripping out the hyperbole this was a call to further action and that we will be hearing that from Boris tomorrow.

    I don't see a problem here. They are telling us that it WILL be 50K cases unless we change our behaviour. Their aim is to get us to change our behaviour.
    The problem is that it is not true. And therefore we are inevitably going to over react in the same way that we did with the original lockdown. If we are looking at a much more realistic, nuanced model we can also have a more realistic, nuanced response.

    We need to reinforce hand, face, space. We need to stop idiots going on foreign holidays and coming back here to spread infection by mandatory, enforced quarantine. We need to think hard about risk vectors such as public transport. We will have to accept more sport without spectators, disappointing as that is. We do need to move to more risk segmentation where some vulnerable groups are much more restricted than others.

    But we don't need to shut down all the restaurants and pubs again, we don't need to stop people going to University or school (although the former will be our biggest challenge), we don't want to close down the parts of our economy we have got moving.

    I am favour of a nuanced response. However from the figures I would have a gloomier take than your analysis.

    Firstly, I wouldn't say the initial lockdown was an overreaction. It was late being applied and we only got got somewhat below R=1, even in maximum lockdown. The UK had the sixth worst death rate in the world. Even so, the lockdown saved many, many lives lives.

    Because R under lockdown is only slightly less than one, we don't have a lot of headroom before we get to exponential curve territory, which we are now in again. Our choices are about how quickly we let the epidemic grow again. We do have individual and collective choices and we should be aware what they are and what the risks are. Then we need to apply those choices.
This discussion has been closed.