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New Ipsos US polling finds HALF of Republican voters oppose the plan to fill the Supreme Court vacan

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    TOPPING said:

    I really dislike government by Chris Whitty.

    Yup, firstly you shouldn't be sending a boffin out to explain things when it's ministers who make the decisions, and secondly if you are going with a boffin, best not to go with the one whose initial response was a world-class failure.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,905
    Watched the briefing. Amazing how misleading ITVs subtitles were.

    Then they cut away to 2 journalists who immediately mistate facts about the presentations.

    Doesn't fill me with confidence.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,902
    I think it was @isam who asked a good question the other day: where is the critique of covid policy from the left?

    He's right that most of the critique has been from rightwing commentators (although not necessarily from a party-political / overtly rightwing standpoint).

    Thought it was interesting too see these two pieces in the Guardian, from Zoe Williams and John Harris.

    Straws in the wind?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/sep/21/coronavirus-government-liberties-tories-police-powers-laws

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/sep/21/would-you-shop-your-neighbour-rule-of-six-expose-everyones-true-nature
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    That makes absolutely zero sense, the current selection process cannot be a proxy war between the Cherry and Sturgeon factions.

    Robertson is obviously a Sturgeon ally, Biagi is so far from the Cherry/Salmondite camp as impossible to see from a telescope.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,382
    edited September 2020

    MaxPB said:

    As long as they aren't making a profit it's not an issue is it?

    No you misunderstand me, the Government guarantees a profit.
    Its not "profit". They are paid a management fee. If first/MTR wasn't running the service then it may have to go to "Operator of Last Resort". Which is Arup/Ernst & Young/SNC. Who get paid a management fee.

    Its not like you get DfT's time free - thats why they outsource. And with the increasingly stupid decisions DfT have been making you really don't want the civil service running the service directly.
    Management fee is a guaranteed profit, no? They get paid, even if they do a piss poor job. In the long run they might lose the fee but they get a paid a fee.

    I just say, cut out the middle man altogether.
    No its not.

    And there will be fees paid even if it is brought in house. Indeed the fees may cost even more by bringing it into State control.
    It is a guaranteed profit, at least in the short term.

    We're paying them a fee to run it, what's the point? Just don't pay the fee and run it ourselves.
    No it isn't.

    They make a profit if they run it for less than they get paid.

    Unless it is a cost+ contract.

    The reason so many privatisations are so successful is because the operators are far better at running things than the Govt, and the politicians who interfere for their own or their supporters' / masters' benefit are more sidelined.

    Can you imagine what a disaster a nationalised rail would be if it were subject to interference from the stoneage politics of the rail union bosses?
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    nichomar said:

    Boris Johnson should resign after briefing we should get back to the office just a few weeks ago. What an absolute dick

    You are just being silly again

    Are you calling Sturgeon, Drakeford, Foster, Macron, Merkel and everyone else to go as this is across all the UK and even worse at present in Europe
    It's sad you're now Johnson's fanboy again, each time you flip flop just makes your next flip look even less convincing
    You really need to grow up

    I'm only stating how I see it, there's no need to be rude Big G.

    You do tend to flip flop on Johnson, you've often "lost faith" and called for him to go, before then flip flopping back to supporting him.

    Just because I have pointed that out, there's no need to respond in this way. I've only been respectful to you, please do the same for me.
    Do not confuse my support for the conservative party and government with my desire to see Boris replaced

    Both are true
    Support for the government is support for Johnson.
    If you think I am going to turn against the conservative party you are going to be very disappointed
    Then that rather undermines you when you talk about wanting to get rid of Johnson.

    I admire your posts and I find them interesting - I note you still didn't apologise to me but that's fine - but I do think you're really a bit dishonest at times.
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    Allowing people to go on foreign holidays over the summer is now looking like an enormous mistake. It may have been crowd-pleasing but it will end up costing the government far more than it would have to simply prop up the travel industry for a few months.

    Yes but people got to go on holiday.
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    Eat Out To Help Out, I am afraid, has been a very poor decision in hindsight.

    They will have reintroduced by this time next week.

    There is no guiding strategy. It's whatever Johnson has heard last.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209

    This format has caused panic amongst the journalist who have no knowledge of the science and just want it to be political

    That's because it's all political.
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    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    As long as they aren't making a profit it's not an issue is it?

    No you misunderstand me, the Government guarantees a profit.
    Its not "profit". They are paid a management fee. If first/MTR wasn't running the service then it may have to go to "Operator of Last Resort". Which is Arup/Ernst & Young/SNC. Who get paid a management fee.

    Its not like you get DfT's time free - thats why they outsource. And with the increasingly stupid decisions DfT have been making you really don't want the civil service running the service directly.
    Management fee is a guaranteed profit, no? They get paid, even if they do a piss poor job. In the long run they might lose the fee but they get a paid a fee.

    I just say, cut out the middle man altogether.
    No its not.

    And there will be fees paid even if it is brought in house. Indeed the fees may cost even more by bringing it into State control.
    It is a guaranteed profit, at least in the short term.

    We're paying them a fee to run it, what's the point? Just don't pay the fee and run it ourselves.
    No it isn't.

    They make a profit if they run it for less than they get paid.

    Unless it is a cost+ contract.

    The reason so many privatisations are so successful is because the operators are far better at running things than the Govt, and the politicians who interfere for their own or their supporters' / masters' benefit are more sidelined.
    Oh yes, the railways have been a huge success under privatisation, lol.

    They make a guaranteed profit, they get paid a fee by the Government under the new model, which means there is absolutely no incentive to improve.

    This will do nothing, the service will continue to be piss poor.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209
    edited September 2020

    TOPPING said:

    I really dislike government by Chris Whitty.

    Why may I ask (politely) when they are making their advice and knowledge transparent to everyone
    Imagine the topic was smoking. What would be the outcome/recommendation of the Chief Medical Officer of a press conference about smoking? A total ban is my guess.
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    nichomar said:

    Boris Johnson should resign after briefing we should get back to the office just a few weeks ago. What an absolute dick

    You are just being silly again

    Are you calling Sturgeon, Drakeford, Foster, Macron, Merkel and everyone else to go as this is across all the UK and even worse at present in Europe
    It's sad you're now Johnson's fanboy again, each time you flip flop just makes your next flip look even less convincing
    You really need to grow up

    I'm only stating how I see it, there's no need to be rude Big G.

    You do tend to flip flop on Johnson, you've often "lost faith" and called for him to go, before then flip flopping back to supporting him.

    Just because I have pointed that out, there's no need to respond in this way. I've only been respectful to you, please do the same for me.
    Do not confuse my support for the conservative party and government with my desire to see Boris replaced

    Both are true
    Support for the government is support for Johnson.
    If you think I am going to turn against the conservative party you are going to be very disappointed
    Then that rather undermines you when you talk about wanting to get rid of Johnson.

    I admire your posts and I find them interesting - I note you still didn't apologise to me but that's fine - but I do think you're really a bit dishonest at times.
    I was going to apologise Horse but when you said I am a bit dishonest at times does make it harder as I have never been dishonest in my life
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited September 2020

    Boris Johnson should resign after briefing we should get back to the office just a few weeks ago. What an absolute dick

    You are just being silly again

    Are you calling Sturgeon, Drakeford, Foster, Macron, Merkel and everyone else to go as this is across all the UK and even worse at present in Europe
    It's sad you're now Johnson's fanboy again, each time you flip flop just makes your next flip look even less convincing
    You really need to grow up

    I'm only stating how I see it, there's no need to be rude Big G.

    You do tend to flip flop on Johnson, you've often "lost faith" and called for him to go, before then flip flopping back to supporting him.

    Just because I have pointed that out, there's no need to respond in this way. I've only been respectful to you, please do the same for me.
    Do not confuse my support for the conservative party and government with my desire to see Boris replaced

    Both are true
    But then you just asked me to grow up and were rude to me, please apologise. I called for Johnson to go as he was saying get back to the office, I don't recall any other leader saying that.
    Please can you show me a video of Boris saying get back to the office as opposed to get back to work.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12334881/boris-johnson-get-back-to-office-on-monday/

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53942542

    https://inews.co.uk/news/analysis/coronavirus-latest-boris-johnson-workers-returning-office-lockdown-615080

    It's obvious to anyone not off the deep end, he is responsible for this
    Not one of those links contains Boris saying to get back to the office even if you can work from home.

    The BBC article claims that a get back to the office campaign would be launched next week. I said at the time to you I bet it was bullshit and so it was. Its more than a week later now, where is that campaign? As I predicted at the time, no campaign was ever launched. Which is why you're quoting media bullshit that a campaign would be launched and not quoting the actual launch of an actual campaign that was never more than the figment of some people's imagination.
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    Boris Johnson should resign after briefing we should get back to the office just a few weeks ago. What an absolute dick

    You are just being silly again

    Are you calling Sturgeon, Drakeford, Foster, Macron, Merkel and everyone else to go as this is across all the UK and even worse at present in Europe
    It's sad you're now Johnson's fanboy again, each time you flip flop just makes your next flip look even less convincing
    You really need to grow up

    I'm only stating how I see it, there's no need to be rude Big G.

    You do tend to flip flop on Johnson, you've often "lost faith" and called for him to go, before then flip flopping back to supporting him.

    Just because I have pointed that out, there's no need to respond in this way. I've only been respectful to you, please do the same for me.
    Do not confuse my support for the conservative party and government with my desire to see Boris replaced

    Both are true
    But then you just asked me to grow up and were rude to me, please apologise. I called for Johnson to go as he was saying get back to the office, I don't recall any other leader saying that.
    Please can you show me a video of Boris saying get back to the office as opposed to get back to work.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12334881/boris-johnson-get-back-to-office-on-monday/

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53942542

    https://inews.co.uk/news/analysis/coronavirus-latest-boris-johnson-workers-returning-office-lockdown-615080

    It's obvious to anyone not off the deep end, he is responsible for this
    And across the rest of the UK and Europe

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    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1307990810231738368

    At best, Eat Out To Help Out is going to have been a complete waste of time
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,216

    Argh

    https://twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/1307983214489808896

    We knew this was going to happen, look across the Channel. And the Government tried to get people back to the office instead.

    "10 times the previous peak" is grade one horseshit. We know that at the time of the previous peak we were only testing hospitalizations (and ministers, royalty and senior government advisers).

    We almost certainly had ~100k cases a day at the last peak, but couldn't count them. So, it might be half the previous peak.
    I think they tried to mitigate the innumerate analysis that with the line about 200 deaths per day would be consistent with this # of cases.
    But multiplying any number I find by any other number Is Journalism!!!
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    See you on the other side of lockdown then everyone...
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    nichomar said:

    Boris Johnson should resign after briefing we should get back to the office just a few weeks ago. What an absolute dick

    You are just being silly again

    Are you calling Sturgeon, Drakeford, Foster, Macron, Merkel and everyone else to go as this is across all the UK and even worse at present in Europe
    It's sad you're now Johnson's fanboy again, each time you flip flop just makes your next flip look even less convincing
    You really need to grow up

    I'm only stating how I see it, there's no need to be rude Big G.

    You do tend to flip flop on Johnson, you've often "lost faith" and called for him to go, before then flip flopping back to supporting him.

    Just because I have pointed that out, there's no need to respond in this way. I've only been respectful to you, please do the same for me.
    Do not confuse my support for the conservative party and government with my desire to see Boris replaced

    Both are true
    Support for the government is support for Johnson.
    If you think I am going to turn against the conservative party you are going to be very disappointed
    Then that rather undermines you when you talk about wanting to get rid of Johnson.

    I admire your posts and I find them interesting - I note you still didn't apologise to me but that's fine - but I do think you're really a bit dishonest at times.
    I was going to apologise Horse but when you said I am a bit dishonest at times does make it harder as I have never been dishonest in my life
    I think you are dishonest when you state you're losing faith in the PM and the Government, when you're not really.

    I don't want to fall out with you as I consider you a top bloke normally, so consider my thoughts closed/irrelevant.
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    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1307990810231738368

    At best, Eat Out To Help Out is going to have been a complete waste of time

    Disagree- it got money into the economy, and it made a lot of people feel pretty good in terms of a treat.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    https://twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/1307983214489808896

    We knew this was going to happen, look across the Channel. And the Government tried to get people back to the office instead.

    Rayner is being misleading there, the previous peak is estimated to be around 130,000 infections per day. Comparing forecasts to old tests is almost completely useless.
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    Boris Johnson should resign after briefing we should get back to the office just a few weeks ago. What an absolute dick

    You are just being silly again

    Are you calling Sturgeon, Drakeford, Foster, Macron, Merkel and everyone else to go as this is across all the UK and even worse at present in Europe
    It's sad you're now Johnson's fanboy again, each time you flip flop just makes your next flip look even less convincing
    You really need to grow up

    I'm only stating how I see it, there's no need to be rude Big G.

    You do tend to flip flop on Johnson, you've often "lost faith" and called for him to go, before then flip flopping back to supporting him.

    Just because I have pointed that out, there's no need to respond in this way. I've only been respectful to you, please do the same for me.
    Do not confuse my support for the conservative party and government with my desire to see Boris replaced

    Both are true
    But then you just asked me to grow up and were rude to me, please apologise. I called for Johnson to go as he was saying get back to the office, I don't recall any other leader saying that.
    Please can you show me a video of Boris saying get back to the office as opposed to get back to work.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12334881/boris-johnson-get-back-to-office-on-monday/

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53942542

    https://inews.co.uk/news/analysis/coronavirus-latest-boris-johnson-workers-returning-office-lockdown-615080

    It's obvious to anyone not off the deep end, he is responsible for this
    Not one of those links contains Boris saying to get back to the office even if you can work from home.

    The BBC article claims that a get back to the office campaign would be launched next week. I said at the time to you I bet it was bullshit and so it was. Its more than a week later now, where is that campaign? As I predicted at the time, no campaign was ever launched. Which is why you're quoting media bullshit that a campaign would be launched and not quoting the actual launch of an actual campaign that was never more than the figment of some people's imagination.
    Philip, if it was the other way around, you would be calling for Keir Starmer to resign. So if you'll forgive me, I am going to take your thoughts on this with a grain of salt
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited September 2020

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1307990810231738368

    At best, Eat Out To Help Out is going to have been a complete waste of time

    The media obsession with Eat Out To Help Out potentially being a big casual factor is a bit like the Grouse shooting stuff. Foreign holidays where people have gone partying and people rammed into pubs / beer gardens is far risker than 4 people from the same household sitting quietly having a meal in a restaurant.

    Has there been one recorded "super spreading" event from a trip to Pizza Express reported? In comparison, the media has been full of ones from 300 people rammed in a pub beer garden leading to 10s of confirmed cases and you only have to look at the rate of positive cases among the footballers returning from foreign holidays to see that was a huge problem.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,043
    MaxPB said:

    Eat Out To Help Out, I am afraid, has been a very poor decision in hindsight.

    That's not the source of transmission though, it's large groups of people in houses that are the problem. House parties and religious gatherings are responsible for this.
    In Perugia? In Westminster Abbey? On the same weekend.
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    Seems a OK idea to me. Renaming Arsenal to 'Emirates Arsenal' for example - as long as the names aren't silly (and as long as the sponsorship package is worked out with what is going to happen after it expires). Isn't solving the funding crisis for TFL a priority for London?
    You could extend the principle to the names of all sorts of things. Parliamentary constituency names, for example.

    Epsom and Ewell could become Hutchison Port. Although, it's possible that some companies might object that, having bought the member, it's unfair to ask them to pay for the constituency name too.
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    So, I couldn't face watching it.

    Did any proper journalist ask them what the False Positive Rate is on the PCR test?
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940
    Having difficulty explaining to journalists the difference between an extrapolation and a prediction.
    Re the Left.
    Harriet Harman calls £10k fines "Draconian".
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209
    Just what I noticed. There is no upward blue column trend over the past few days. They've just bolted on some scary red columns.

    Not to say it wouldn't but really, we have eyes also.
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    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I really dislike government by Chris Whitty.

    Why may I ask (politely) when they are making their advice and knowledge transparent to everyone
    Imagine the topic was smoking. What would be the outcome/recommendation of the Chief Medical Officer of a press conference about smoking? A total ban is my guess.
    Thank you for your reply but to be honest this is a pandemic with far more serious implications
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    So, I couldn't face watching it.

    Did any proper journalist ask them what the False Positive Rate is on the PCR test?

    Shouldn't they have asked if the false positive rate had changed?
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,043

    nichomar said:

    Boris Johnson should resign after briefing we should get back to the office just a few weeks ago. What an absolute dick

    You are just being silly again

    Are you calling Sturgeon, Drakeford, Foster, Macron, Merkel and everyone else to go as this is across all the UK and even worse at present in Europe
    It's sad you're now Johnson's fanboy again, each time you flip flop just makes your next flip look even less convincing
    You really need to grow up

    I'm only stating how I see it, there's no need to be rude Big G.

    You do tend to flip flop on Johnson, you've often "lost faith" and called for him to go, before then flip flopping back to supporting him.

    Just because I have pointed that out, there's no need to respond in this way. I've only been respectful to you, please do the same for me.
    Do not confuse my support for the conservative party and government with my desire to see Boris replaced

    Both are true
    Support for the government is support for Johnson.
    If you think I am going to turn against the conservative party you are going to be very disappointed
    Then that rather undermines you when you talk about wanting to get rid of Johnson.

    I admire your posts and I find them interesting - I note you still didn't apologise to me but that's fine - but I do think you're really a bit dishonest at times.
    I was going to apologise Horse but when you said I am a bit dishonest at times does make it harder as I have never been dishonest in my life
    I think you are dishonest when you state you're losing faith in the PM and the Government, when you're not really.

    I don't want to fall out with you as I consider you a top bloke normally, so consider my thoughts closed/irrelevant.
    Perhaps the word you were looking for is inconsistent.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,382

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1307990810231738368

    At best, Eat Out To Help Out is going to have been a complete waste of time

    I would say it will have put some working capital back into businesses to help them survive the winter, and into the pockets of all the staff involved, and saved a considerable amount on furlough payments, and generated a lot of extra tax.

    I have seen no evidence whether EOTHO has led to increased COVID transmission, but with 35 million Rishi-on-a-Dishy dinners of which I had three, there should be some evidence somewhere.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    edited September 2020
    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    There must be conservatives on the supreme court who are worried that the majority of americans lose all faith in the supreme court as an institution who must be against pushing through a nomination.

    There is one - Roberts.
    Thomas and Alito ? You’re joking. Kavanaugh clearly doesn’t give much of a damn about public opinion; Gorsuch, unlikely, but time will tell.

    If the Republicans seat another Justice after what they pulled with Garland, because it’s ‘within their rights’, I think it almost certain a Democratic Senate majority will expand the court, since that is equally ‘within their rights’.

    On the second point, even Senate moderates agree.

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/for-mitch-mcconnell-keeping-his-senate-majority-matters-more-than-the-supreme-court
    ... Senator Tim Kaine, of Virginia, who is ordinarily a mainstream Democrat, has said he could support enlarging the court as a tactic, if the Republicans force a confirmation vote...
    Doubt Dems would get 50 senators lined up on that.

    I think it's a pretty simple decision for a man with no scruples. Mitch is going to make sure there's a conservative majority.
    Why do you doubt that? Seems to be an increasingly mainstream view in the Democratic Party. The GOP has been trampling on conventions for years, now its time for the Dems to play dirty otherwise their legislative agenda will just be picked apart by the court for years to come.
    Oh I agree that the democrats *should* wake up and realize they are playing by rules the other side have been ignoring for years. But they aren't going to.

    Biden said he wouldn't try it last year. Even if he changes his mind, they would need to win the Senate AND have basically all Democratic senators on board. The likes of Joe Manchin are just not going to go along with it.

    https://iowastartingline.com/2019/07/05/joe-biden-interview-talk-about-the-future-in-dem-primary/
    And even if the Dems manage to get a senate "majority" that doesn't depend on the likes of Joe Manchin, it's unlikely to last long:
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-senates-rural-skew-makes-it-very-hard-for-democrats-to-win-the-supreme-court/
    is well-worth reading.

    The conservative minority in america effectively has a blocking majority in the Senate, it's effectively the same as the 19th Century conservative blocking majority in the House of Lords, which only (mostly) ended when the Liberals won general elections fought on the issue of reducing the power of the HoL in 1910, and passed the subsequent 1911 Parliament Act.

    It's hard to see how the US can become a democracy though.
    Hardly, the Democrats had a huge Senate majority of 57 to just 41 for the Republicans as recently as 2008.

    The fact West Virginia is a socially conservative state that only elects socially conservative Democrats, a similar situation to most border and southern states, does not mean the Democrats cannot get a big majority there however it simply reflects the fact that most Americans are not social liberals, that is not a problem of democracy however
    Totally wrong.
    And: try reading the article.
    "Because there are a lot of largely rural, low-population states, the average state — which reflects the composition of the Senate — has 35 percent of its population in rural areas and only 14 percent in urban core areas, even though the country as a whole — including dense, high-population states like New York, Texas and California — has about 25 percent of the population in each group. That’s a pretty serious skew. It means that the Senate, de facto, has two or three times as much rural representation as urban core representation … even though there are actually about an equal number of voters in each bucket nationwide.

    And of course, this has all sorts of other downstream consequences. Since rural areas tend to be whiter, it means the Senate represents a whiter population, too. In the U.S. as a whole, 60 percent of the population is non-Hispanic white and 40 percent of the population is nonwhite.1 But in the average state, 68 percent of people are white and 32 percent are nonwhite."

    "the Senate is effectively 6 to 7 percentage points redder than the country as a whole, which means that Democrats are likely to win it only in the event of a near-landslide in their favor nationally. That’s likely to make the Republican majority on the Supreme Court pretty durable."

    not only is the Senate anti-democratic, it is also anti-democratic in a racist way.
    So what, the House seats are allocated on the basis of population and had a Republican majority from 2010 to 2018 including from 2010 to 2014 when the Senate had a Democratic majority. So the idea the Democrats can never win the Senate is absurd.

    All you are posting is left liberal whining, totally ignoring the balance of power the founding fathers put into the US constitution to ensure no state was ignored and all states gained equal representation in the Senate and contributed, even if the House seats were determined by population, with the EC being a halfway house, with EC votes awarded by population but every state getting a minimal representation of electors.

    California for example has 53 US Representatives, Wyoming just 1.

    I know you worship the "founding fathers" as god-like beings, but I don't, and your account of their motivation is just stupid propaganda.

    The House also has a pro-Republican bias due to gerrymandering and Democrat voter inefficiency, it does not have PR, or even remotely reasonable boundaries in many cases. So your "point" about the House is moronic.

    Are you disputing the facts in the 538 article about the Senate? And if so which ones? I'd love to hear your expertise.
    It doesn't matter. The system is the system what is whinging about it going to achieve?

    To change the system can't be done with a majority of the House as happened in the UK with the Parliament Actin the Commons. To change the system requires the consent of two-thirds of the States and those States are never under any circumstances going to agree to that.

    The Democrats need to find a way of appealing more to the other States - they did when they won a massive majority of the Senate only a few years ago. Whinging about the system won't achieve change.
    What on earth makes you think that me pointing out certain facts on this forum is going to "achieve change"? Like I said, it's hard to see how the US becomes a democracy.

    Obviously these facts are uncomfortable for certain posters on here, but they remain facts.

    Anyone who uses the word "whinging" to describe facts or opinions they don't like obviously has nothing useful to say.
    I apologise for the intemperate language, but the point behind it remains.

    I want the Democrats to win - or more importantly I want Trump's GOP to be smashed. But many who support the Democrats seem to think that saying that it is "so unfair" like a Harry Enfield Kevin and Perry sketch is more productive than the Democrats actually figuring out how to win in the States they need to win in.

    The USA is a Democracy, it is a Federal Democracy of States though. The Democrats need to figure out how to win across the Federation and not just in the high populace States.
    OK, but I am not in the US, nor posting on a US forum, so whatever I write is hardly likely to be productive nor unproductive. My opinion remains that the US is a highly flawed democracy, certainly compared to the least-flawed democracies (eg Scandinavian countries), and that the way an increasingly small minority can keep a majority in the Senate is part of the problem. This does not constitute advice to the Dems on how to win the next election!
    The whole of the population of Scandinavia combined is smaller than the population of the US states of California, Texas or Florida.

    Sweden is the same size as Michigan, Denmark or Norway are the same size as Maryland or Wisconsin so it is not a like for like comparison.

    The EU is more the equivalent of the US than Scandinavia is
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    TOPPING said:

    Just what I noticed. There is no upward blue column trend over the past few days. They've just bolted on some scary red columns.

    Not to say it wouldn't but really, we have eyes also.
    Yeah, I've noticed that too. It has gone up, but not a sustained exponential growth over the last two weeks. So there is some hope.
  • Options
    RobD said:

    So, I couldn't face watching it.

    Did any proper journalist ask them what the False Positive Rate is on the PCR test?

    Shouldn't they have asked if the false positive rate had changed?
    Asking anything at all about it would be a start frankly.
  • Options

    nichomar said:

    Boris Johnson should resign after briefing we should get back to the office just a few weeks ago. What an absolute dick

    You are just being silly again

    Are you calling Sturgeon, Drakeford, Foster, Macron, Merkel and everyone else to go as this is across all the UK and even worse at present in Europe
    It's sad you're now Johnson's fanboy again, each time you flip flop just makes your next flip look even less convincing
    You really need to grow up

    I'm only stating how I see it, there's no need to be rude Big G.

    You do tend to flip flop on Johnson, you've often "lost faith" and called for him to go, before then flip flopping back to supporting him.

    Just because I have pointed that out, there's no need to respond in this way. I've only been respectful to you, please do the same for me.
    Do not confuse my support for the conservative party and government with my desire to see Boris replaced

    Both are true
    Support for the government is support for Johnson.
    If you think I am going to turn against the conservative party you are going to be very disappointed
    Then that rather undermines you when you talk about wanting to get rid of Johnson.

    I admire your posts and I find them interesting - I note you still didn't apologise to me but that's fine - but I do think you're really a bit dishonest at times.
    I was going to apologise Horse but when you said I am a bit dishonest at times does make it harder as I have never been dishonest in my life
    I think you are dishonest when you state you're losing faith in the PM and the Government, when you're not really.

    I don't want to fall out with you as I consider you a top bloke normally, so consider my thoughts closed/irrelevant.
    Perhaps the word you were looking for is inconsistent.
    Yeah that fits better. Consider that my thought and I will make no more mention of it
  • Options

    Boris Johnson should resign after briefing we should get back to the office just a few weeks ago. What an absolute dick

    You are just being silly again

    Are you calling Sturgeon, Drakeford, Foster, Macron, Merkel and everyone else to go as this is across all the UK and even worse at present in Europe
    It's sad you're now Johnson's fanboy again, each time you flip flop just makes your next flip look even less convincing
    You really need to grow up

    I'm only stating how I see it, there's no need to be rude Big G.

    You do tend to flip flop on Johnson, you've often "lost faith" and called for him to go, before then flip flopping back to supporting him.

    Just because I have pointed that out, there's no need to respond in this way. I've only been respectful to you, please do the same for me.
    Do not confuse my support for the conservative party and government with my desire to see Boris replaced

    Both are true
    But then you just asked me to grow up and were rude to me, please apologise. I called for Johnson to go as he was saying get back to the office, I don't recall any other leader saying that.
    Please can you show me a video of Boris saying get back to the office as opposed to get back to work.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12334881/boris-johnson-get-back-to-office-on-monday/

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53942542

    https://inews.co.uk/news/analysis/coronavirus-latest-boris-johnson-workers-returning-office-lockdown-615080

    It's obvious to anyone not off the deep end, he is responsible for this
    Not one of those links contains Boris saying to get back to the office even if you can work from home.

    The BBC article claims that a get back to the office campaign would be launched next week. I said at the time to you I bet it was bullshit and so it was. Its more than a week later now, where is that campaign? As I predicted at the time, no campaign was ever launched. Which is why you're quoting media bullshit that a campaign would be launched and not quoting the actual launch of an actual campaign that was never more than the figment of some people's imagination.
    Philip, if it was the other way around, you would be calling for Keir Starmer to resign. So if you'll forgive me, I am going to take your thoughts on this with a grain of salt
    If it was the other way around I'd be quoting what Keir Starmer actually said rather than just saying he said it but unable to quote when he did, because that clear fact is he did not.

    And no quoting media garbage that he "will" say it but then we know he never does is not the same thing.

    If you can only criticise Boris for saying things he never said then obviously Boris has done a fantastic job in your eyes. Because you're incapable of finding things he's actually said or done and criticising him for that, so you're inventing fictitious things to condemn him for instead.
  • Options

    Boris Johnson should resign after briefing we should get back to the office just a few weeks ago. What an absolute dick

    You are just being silly again

    Are you calling Sturgeon, Drakeford, Foster, Macron, Merkel and everyone else to go as this is across all the UK and even worse at present in Europe
    It's sad you're now Johnson's fanboy again, each time you flip flop just makes your next flip look even less convincing
    You really need to grow up

    I'm only stating how I see it, there's no need to be rude Big G.

    You do tend to flip flop on Johnson, you've often "lost faith" and called for him to go, before then flip flopping back to supporting him.

    Just because I have pointed that out, there's no need to respond in this way. I've only been respectful to you, please do the same for me.
    Do not confuse my support for the conservative party and government with my desire to see Boris replaced

    Both are true
    But then you just asked me to grow up and were rude to me, please apologise. I called for Johnson to go as he was saying get back to the office, I don't recall any other leader saying that.
    Please can you show me a video of Boris saying get back to the office as opposed to get back to work.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12334881/boris-johnson-get-back-to-office-on-monday/

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53942542

    https://inews.co.uk/news/analysis/coronavirus-latest-boris-johnson-workers-returning-office-lockdown-615080

    It's obvious to anyone not off the deep end, he is responsible for this
    Not one of those links contains Boris saying to get back to the office even if you can work from home.

    The BBC article claims that a get back to the office campaign would be launched next week. I said at the time to you I bet it was bullshit and so it was. Its more than a week later now, where is that campaign? As I predicted at the time, no campaign was ever launched. Which is why you're quoting media bullshit that a campaign would be launched and not quoting the actual launch of an actual campaign that was never more than the figment of some people's imagination.
    Philip, if it was the other way around, you would be calling for Keir Starmer to resign. So if you'll forgive me, I am going to take your thoughts on this with a grain of salt
    If it was the other way around I'd be quoting what Keir Starmer actually said rather than just saying he said it but unable to quote when he did, because that clear fact is he did not.

    And no quoting media garbage that he "will" say it but then we know he never does is not the same thing.

    If you can only criticise Boris for saying things he never said then obviously Boris has done a fantastic job in your eyes. Because you're incapable of finding things he's actually said or done and criticising him for that, so you're inventing fictitious things to condemn him for instead.
    Boris Johnson said get back to the office, it's as clear as day what he meant and you're just being dishonest stating otherwise.

    When it's Labour you don't think about nuance or context, so I am not going to do the same for you here. To be honest, on these kinds of issues I think neither of us contribute very much.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,382

    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    As long as they aren't making a profit it's not an issue is it?

    No you misunderstand me, the Government guarantees a profit.
    Its not "profit". They are paid a management fee. If first/MTR wasn't running the service then it may have to go to "Operator of Last Resort". Which is Arup/Ernst & Young/SNC. Who get paid a management fee.

    Its not like you get DfT's time free - thats why they outsource. And with the increasingly stupid decisions DfT have been making you really don't want the civil service running the service directly.
    Management fee is a guaranteed profit, no? They get paid, even if they do a piss poor job. In the long run they might lose the fee but they get a paid a fee.

    I just say, cut out the middle man altogether.
    No its not.

    And there will be fees paid even if it is brought in house. Indeed the fees may cost even more by bringing it into State control.
    It is a guaranteed profit, at least in the short term.

    We're paying them a fee to run it, what's the point? Just don't pay the fee and run it ourselves.
    No it isn't.

    They make a profit if they run it for less than they get paid.

    Unless it is a cost+ contract.

    The reason so many privatisations are so successful is because the operators are far better at running things than the Govt, and the politicians who interfere for their own or their supporters' / masters' benefit are more sidelined.
    Oh yes, the railways have been a huge success under privatisation, lol.

    They make a guaranteed profit, they get paid a fee by the Government under the new model, which means there is absolutely no incentive to improve.

    This will do nothing, the service will continue to be piss poor.
    If you look at the data - eg EU comparisons of performance and service levels across countries, none of those claims are accurate. Don't fall for the guff.

    And no - a further assertion does not turn a management fee into a guaranteed profit.

    Profit is revenue minus costs, not just revenue :smile: .
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1307990810231738368

    At best, Eat Out To Help Out is going to have been a complete waste of time

    The media obsession with Eat Out To Help Out potentially being a big casual factor is a bit like the Grouse shooting stuff. Foreign holidays where people have gone partying and people rammed into pubs / beer gardens is far risker than 4 people from the same household sitting quietly having a meal in a restaurant.

    Has there been one recorded "super spreading" event from a trip to Pizza Express reported? In comparison, the media has been full of ones from 300 people rammed in a pub beer garden leading to 10s of confirmed cases and you only have to look at the rate of positive cases among the footballers returning from foreign holidays to see that was a huge problem.
    Except that round here some places were rammed with extra tables and total strangers sharing tables.
    It wasn't gentle dining. It was pile them in. Get them fed, get them out and get more in.
  • Options
    RobD said:

    So, I couldn't face watching it.

    Did any proper journalist ask them what the False Positive Rate is on the PCR test?

    Shouldn't they have asked if the false positive rate had changed?
    They covered it and explained clearly that this is bunk.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209

    Boris Johnson should resign after briefing we should get back to the office just a few weeks ago. What an absolute dick

    You are just being silly again

    Are you calling Sturgeon, Drakeford, Foster, Macron, Merkel and everyone else to go as this is across all the UK and even worse at present in Europe
    It's sad you're now Johnson's fanboy again, each time you flip flop just makes your next flip look even less convincing
    You really need to grow up

    I'm only stating how I see it, there's no need to be rude Big G.

    You do tend to flip flop on Johnson, you've often "lost faith" and called for him to go, before then flip flopping back to supporting him.

    Just because I have pointed that out, there's no need to respond in this way. I've only been respectful to you, please do the same for me.
    Do not confuse my support for the conservative party and government with my desire to see Boris replaced

    Both are true
    But then you just asked me to grow up and were rude to me, please apologise. I called for Johnson to go as he was saying get back to the office, I don't recall any other leader saying that.
    Please can you show me a video of Boris saying get back to the office as opposed to get back to work.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12334881/boris-johnson-get-back-to-office-on-monday/

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53942542

    https://inews.co.uk/news/analysis/coronavirus-latest-boris-johnson-workers-returning-office-lockdown-615080

    It's obvious to anyone not off the deep end, he is responsible for this
    Not one of those links contains Boris saying to get back to the office even if you can work from home.

    The BBC article claims that a get back to the office campaign would be launched next week. I said at the time to you I bet it was bullshit and so it was. Its more than a week later now, where is that campaign? As I predicted at the time, no campaign was ever launched. Which is why you're quoting media bullshit that a campaign would be launched and not quoting the actual launch of an actual campaign that was never more than the figment of some people's imagination.
    So Boris meant to tell all those WFH to continue to WFH?

    Good call.

    Who was he telling to get back to work?
  • Options
    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited September 2020
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    As long as they aren't making a profit it's not an issue is it?

    No you misunderstand me, the Government guarantees a profit.
    Its not "profit". They are paid a management fee. If first/MTR wasn't running the service then it may have to go to "Operator of Last Resort". Which is Arup/Ernst & Young/SNC. Who get paid a management fee.

    Its not like you get DfT's time free - thats why they outsource. And with the increasingly stupid decisions DfT have been making you really don't want the civil service running the service directly.
    Management fee is a guaranteed profit, no? They get paid, even if they do a piss poor job. In the long run they might lose the fee but they get a paid a fee.

    I just say, cut out the middle man altogether.
    No its not.

    And there will be fees paid even if it is brought in house. Indeed the fees may cost even more by bringing it into State control.
    It is a guaranteed profit, at least in the short term.

    We're paying them a fee to run it, what's the point? Just don't pay the fee and run it ourselves.
    No it isn't.

    They make a profit if they run it for less than they get paid.

    Unless it is a cost+ contract.

    The reason so many privatisations are so successful is because the operators are far better at running things than the Govt, and the politicians who interfere for their own or their supporters' / masters' benefit are more sidelined.
    Oh yes, the railways have been a huge success under privatisation, lol.

    They make a guaranteed profit, they get paid a fee by the Government under the new model, which means there is absolutely no incentive to improve.

    This will do nothing, the service will continue to be piss poor.
    If you look at the data - eg EU comparisons of performance and service levels across countries, none of those claims are accurate. Don't fall for the guff.

    And no - a further assertion does not turn a management fee into a guaranteed profit.

    Profit is revenue minus costs, not just revenue :smile: .
    The railways are piss poor, that's my experience, that is what I think.

    If you are guaranteeing a payment to an operator, you are guaranteeing a profit. If they lose money elsewhere it's really irrelevant in this context.

    What I take issue with is the payment itself, it's a complete waste of time paying a company money to run something which we're now going to basically run ourselves but still pay someone else to.

    The privatised system is a failure. And this change is barely a change at all.

    Either privatise it completely and remove state involvement or nationalise it and run it properly. I don't much mind.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,584
    TOPPING said:

    Just what I noticed. There is no upward blue column trend over the past few days. They've just bolted on some scary red columns.

    Not to say it wouldn't but really, we have eyes also.
    It's Monday today - of course there is a lag.
  • Options

    Boris Johnson should resign after briefing we should get back to the office just a few weeks ago. What an absolute dick

    You are just being silly again

    Are you calling Sturgeon, Drakeford, Foster, Macron, Merkel and everyone else to go as this is across all the UK and even worse at present in Europe
    It's sad you're now Johnson's fanboy again, each time you flip flop just makes your next flip look even less convincing
    You really need to grow up

    I'm only stating how I see it, there's no need to be rude Big G.

    You do tend to flip flop on Johnson, you've often "lost faith" and called for him to go, before then flip flopping back to supporting him.

    Just because I have pointed that out, there's no need to respond in this way. I've only been respectful to you, please do the same for me.
    Do not confuse my support for the conservative party and government with my desire to see Boris replaced

    Both are true
    But then you just asked me to grow up and were rude to me, please apologise. I called for Johnson to go as he was saying get back to the office, I don't recall any other leader saying that.
    Please can you show me a video of Boris saying get back to the office as opposed to get back to work.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12334881/boris-johnson-get-back-to-office-on-monday/

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53942542

    https://inews.co.uk/news/analysis/coronavirus-latest-boris-johnson-workers-returning-office-lockdown-615080

    It's obvious to anyone not off the deep end, he is responsible for this
    Not one of those links contains Boris saying to get back to the office even if you can work from home.

    The BBC article claims that a get back to the office campaign would be launched next week. I said at the time to you I bet it was bullshit and so it was. Its more than a week later now, where is that campaign? As I predicted at the time, no campaign was ever launched. Which is why you're quoting media bullshit that a campaign would be launched and not quoting the actual launch of an actual campaign that was never more than the figment of some people's imagination.
    Philip, if it was the other way around, you would be calling for Keir Starmer to resign. So if you'll forgive me, I am going to take your thoughts on this with a grain of salt
    If it was the other way around I'd be quoting what Keir Starmer actually said rather than just saying he said it but unable to quote when he did, because that clear fact is he did not.

    And no quoting media garbage that he "will" say it but then we know he never does is not the same thing.

    If you can only criticise Boris for saying things he never said then obviously Boris has done a fantastic job in your eyes. Because you're incapable of finding things he's actually said or done and criticising him for that, so you're inventing fictitious things to condemn him for instead.
    Boris Johnson said get back to the office, it's as clear as day what he meant and you're just being dishonest stating otherwise.

    When it's Labour you don't think about nuance or context, so I am not going to do the same for you here. To be honest, on these kinds of issues I think neither of us contribute very much.
    If he said it please put up a video clip of him saying it. You're being dishonest, he never said it.

    If I was claiming Keir Starmer said it I'd be able to put up a YouTube clip of him saying it.
  • Options

    I wonder if that conference wasn't in part to push Number 10 into action

    You don't half talk some rubbish some of the time. The two eggheads aren't freelancing this presentation, it was held in Number 10 and will have all been agreed by the PM / Hancock (and probably Big Dom). It is clearly the precursor to enable Boris to say "listening to the science, I am unfortunately going to have to announce a number of new long term restrictions".
    Thank you, I do try.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I really dislike government by Chris Whitty.

    Why may I ask (politely) when they are making their advice and knowledge transparent to everyone
    Imagine the topic was smoking. What would be the outcome/recommendation of the Chief Medical Officer of a press conference about smoking? A total ban is my guess.
    Thank you for your reply but to be honest this is a pandemic with far more serious implications
    You are asking scientists/medics to tell you what they think about a particular health issue. So they are going to say what it would take to make the issue go away.

    Same with driving or smoking or mountain climbing or...or...

    Every decision is political.
  • Options
    TOPPING said:

    Boris Johnson should resign after briefing we should get back to the office just a few weeks ago. What an absolute dick

    You are just being silly again

    Are you calling Sturgeon, Drakeford, Foster, Macron, Merkel and everyone else to go as this is across all the UK and even worse at present in Europe
    It's sad you're now Johnson's fanboy again, each time you flip flop just makes your next flip look even less convincing
    You really need to grow up

    I'm only stating how I see it, there's no need to be rude Big G.

    You do tend to flip flop on Johnson, you've often "lost faith" and called for him to go, before then flip flopping back to supporting him.

    Just because I have pointed that out, there's no need to respond in this way. I've only been respectful to you, please do the same for me.
    Do not confuse my support for the conservative party and government with my desire to see Boris replaced

    Both are true
    But then you just asked me to grow up and were rude to me, please apologise. I called for Johnson to go as he was saying get back to the office, I don't recall any other leader saying that.
    Please can you show me a video of Boris saying get back to the office as opposed to get back to work.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12334881/boris-johnson-get-back-to-office-on-monday/

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53942542

    https://inews.co.uk/news/analysis/coronavirus-latest-boris-johnson-workers-returning-office-lockdown-615080

    It's obvious to anyone not off the deep end, he is responsible for this
    Not one of those links contains Boris saying to get back to the office even if you can work from home.

    The BBC article claims that a get back to the office campaign would be launched next week. I said at the time to you I bet it was bullshit and so it was. Its more than a week later now, where is that campaign? As I predicted at the time, no campaign was ever launched. Which is why you're quoting media bullshit that a campaign would be launched and not quoting the actual launch of an actual campaign that was never more than the figment of some people's imagination.
    So Boris meant to tell all those WFH to continue to WFH?

    Good call.

    Who was he telling to get back to work?
    Anyone who wasn't working but could work in a COVID-secure environment whether that was at a workplace or at home. As he said.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    Just what I noticed. There is no upward blue column trend over the past few days. They've just bolted on some scary red columns.

    Not to say it wouldn't but really, we have eyes also.
    It's Monday today - of course there is a lag.
    The point wasn't about the last few days though, it's jumped up about two weeks ago but hasn't increased at the same rate since then. I think the same is seen in the positivity data, too.
  • Options
    Well I am glad I bought those clippers a few months ago and got handy using them, because another 6 months without a haircut could have had me requiring a Gareth Bale style man-bun !!!!

    TBH, I am not sure I will be heading back to the barbers regardless of COVID, for a standard short back and sides clipper type cut, I reckon I have it cracked.
  • Options
    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited September 2020
    Man who thinks he's massively owning the Daily Mail by tweeting about it all day for a decade doesn't realize that he's become its most devoted reader until he has to quit for the sake of his own sanity.

    A hard lesson, but a valuable one...
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Just what I noticed. There is no upward blue column trend over the past few days. They've just bolted on some scary red columns.

    Not to say it wouldn't but really, we have eyes also.
    Yeah, I've noticed that too. It has gone up, but not a sustained exponential growth over the last two weeks. So there is some hope.
    Tests are a lagging indicator, they are showing infections that will have occured going back a week or so. It's possible infections have slowed a bit as perhaps people are taking mitigation a bit more seriously over the last week or two, but I'd want to see several weeks of results before I'd start believing in a new plateau having been reached.
  • Options
    I need to rename my account to RubbishHorseBattery
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209
    edited September 2020
    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Just what I noticed. There is no upward blue column trend over the past few days. They've just bolted on some scary red columns.

    Not to say it wouldn't but really, we have eyes also.
    Yeah, I've noticed that too. It has gone up, but not a sustained exponential growth over the last two weeks. So there is some hope.
    Except now we are going to have a lockdown and they will say "look, lockdowns work - by having one we avoided those nasty red columns".
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,504
    dixiedean said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1307990810231738368

    At best, Eat Out To Help Out is going to have been a complete waste of time

    The media obsession with Eat Out To Help Out potentially being a big casual factor is a bit like the Grouse shooting stuff. Foreign holidays where people have gone partying and people rammed into pubs / beer gardens is far risker than 4 people from the same household sitting quietly having a meal in a restaurant.

    Has there been one recorded "super spreading" event from a trip to Pizza Express reported? In comparison, the media has been full of ones from 300 people rammed in a pub beer garden leading to 10s of confirmed cases and you only have to look at the rate of positive cases among the footballers returning from foreign holidays to see that was a huge problem.
    Except that round here some places were rammed with extra tables and total strangers sharing tables.
    It wasn't gentle dining. It was pile them in. Get them fed, get them out and get more in.
    Here too. Test and Trace has published curiously little on situations where transmissions have occurred. We can only speculate as a result.

    Unless their data is total shite, they should be able to enlighten us, and then we would get better advice and more compliance.
  • Options
    Another 6-9 months of lockdown / "circuit breakers" / WFH...I can't see how places like Central London ever goes back to being the same.

    If it had been just the 3-6 months of Lockdown #1, I don't think the habit has quite yet set in of WFH etc. Well over a year of it, I think it will just become defacto standard.
  • Options

    I wonder if that conference wasn't in part to push Number 10 into action

    You don't half talk some rubbish some of the time. The two eggheads aren't freelancing this presentation, it was held in Number 10 and will have all been agreed by the PM / Hancock (and probably Big Dom). It is clearly the precursor to enable Boris to say "listening to the science, I am unfortunately going to have to announce a number of new long term restrictions".
    Cute politics to prepare the pitch, but maybe not wise government.
    If incfections are doubling every week (and the ZOE app data imply that, which is ominous in terms of how effective test'n'trace is... maybe it is creaking under the current load) then that's a 10% increase a day.

    Whatever needs doing, it's much better to do it quickly.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,839
    edited September 2020

    Seems a OK idea to me. Renaming Arsenal to 'Emirates Arsenal' for example - as long as the names aren't silly (and as long as the sponsorship package is worked out with what is going to happen after it expires). Isn't solving the funding crisis for TFL a priority for London?
    This is based on an idea from the Dubai Metro, where more than half the stations are sponsored by local businesses and they raised huge amounts of money doing it.

    Most are named after large businesses near the station - think Piccadilly Circus being named ‘Trocadeo’ - but the big money is for the interchange and destination stations, as the station announcers say the names every few minutes. So you’d have a line that goes from BT to Emirates, or from Barclays to JCB.

    Oh, and. you’d announce the sponsorships at the same time as a five year fare freeze.
  • Options

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    As long as they aren't making a profit it's not an issue is it?

    No you misunderstand me, the Government guarantees a profit.
    Its not "profit". They are paid a management fee. If first/MTR wasn't running the service then it may have to go to "Operator of Last Resort". Which is Arup/Ernst & Young/SNC. Who get paid a management fee.

    Its not like you get DfT's time free - thats why they outsource. And with the increasingly stupid decisions DfT have been making you really don't want the civil service running the service directly.
    Management fee is a guaranteed profit, no? They get paid, even if they do a piss poor job. In the long run they might lose the fee but they get a paid a fee.

    I just say, cut out the middle man altogether.
    No its not.

    And there will be fees paid even if it is brought in house. Indeed the fees may cost even more by bringing it into State control.
    It is a guaranteed profit, at least in the short term.

    We're paying them a fee to run it, what's the point? Just don't pay the fee and run it ourselves.
    No it isn't.

    They make a profit if they run it for less than they get paid.

    Unless it is a cost+ contract.

    The reason so many privatisations are so successful is because the operators are far better at running things than the Govt, and the politicians who interfere for their own or their supporters' / masters' benefit are more sidelined.
    Oh yes, the railways have been a huge success under privatisation, lol.

    They make a guaranteed profit, they get paid a fee by the Government under the new model, which means there is absolutely no incentive to improve.

    This will do nothing, the service will continue to be piss poor.
    If you look at the data - eg EU comparisons of performance and service levels across countries, none of those claims are accurate. Don't fall for the guff.

    And no - a further assertion does not turn a management fee into a guaranteed profit.

    Profit is revenue minus costs, not just revenue :smile: .
    The railways are piss poor, that's my experience, that is what I think.

    If you are guaranteeing a payment to an operator, you are guaranteeing a profit. If they lose money elsewhere it's really irrelevant in this context.

    What I take issue with is the payment itself, it's a complete waste of time paying a company money to run something which we're now going to basically run ourselves but still pay someone else to.

    The privatised system is a failure. And this change is barely a change at all.

    Either privatise it completely and remove state involvement or nationalise it and run it properly. I don't much mind.
    When I commuted by rail from Berwick to Edinburgh and back every day in the 1960's British Railways was a disaster and had you the experience of rail nationalisation you may not be so sure it will be a success
  • Options

    I wonder if that conference wasn't in part to push Number 10 into action

    You don't half talk some rubbish some of the time. The two eggheads aren't freelancing this presentation, it was held in Number 10 and will have all been agreed by the PM / Hancock (and probably Big Dom). It is clearly the precursor to enable Boris to say "listening to the science, I am unfortunately going to have to announce a number of new long term restrictions".
    I am sure there is an element of them wanting to push Number 10 into action, once they're actually out there they can say what they like.

    And thank God too, Number 10 are very poor at making a consistent decision on anything.

    The reality is that we came too quickly out of the first lockdown, we should have kept in place more measures.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209

    TOPPING said:

    Boris Johnson should resign after briefing we should get back to the office just a few weeks ago. What an absolute dick

    You are just being silly again

    Are you calling Sturgeon, Drakeford, Foster, Macron, Merkel and everyone else to go as this is across all the UK and even worse at present in Europe
    It's sad you're now Johnson's fanboy again, each time you flip flop just makes your next flip look even less convincing
    You really need to grow up

    I'm only stating how I see it, there's no need to be rude Big G.

    You do tend to flip flop on Johnson, you've often "lost faith" and called for him to go, before then flip flopping back to supporting him.

    Just because I have pointed that out, there's no need to respond in this way. I've only been respectful to you, please do the same for me.
    Do not confuse my support for the conservative party and government with my desire to see Boris replaced

    Both are true
    But then you just asked me to grow up and were rude to me, please apologise. I called for Johnson to go as he was saying get back to the office, I don't recall any other leader saying that.
    Please can you show me a video of Boris saying get back to the office as opposed to get back to work.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12334881/boris-johnson-get-back-to-office-on-monday/

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53942542

    https://inews.co.uk/news/analysis/coronavirus-latest-boris-johnson-workers-returning-office-lockdown-615080

    It's obvious to anyone not off the deep end, he is responsible for this
    Not one of those links contains Boris saying to get back to the office even if you can work from home.

    The BBC article claims that a get back to the office campaign would be launched next week. I said at the time to you I bet it was bullshit and so it was. Its more than a week later now, where is that campaign? As I predicted at the time, no campaign was ever launched. Which is why you're quoting media bullshit that a campaign would be launched and not quoting the actual launch of an actual campaign that was never more than the figment of some people's imagination.
    So Boris meant to tell all those WFH to continue to WFH?

    Good call.

    Who was he telling to get back to work?
    Anyone who wasn't working but could work in a COVID-secure environment whether that was at a workplace or at home. As he said.
    Who wasn't working but could work at home if they decided to take his advice?
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209

    Well I am glad I bought those clippers a few months ago and got handy using them, because another 6 months without a haircut could have had me requiring a Gareth Bale style man-bun !!!!

    TBH, I am not sure I will be heading back to the barbers regardless of COVID, for a standard short back and sides clipper type cut, I reckon I have it cracked.

    Have you seen the back of your head??
  • Options

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    As long as they aren't making a profit it's not an issue is it?

    No you misunderstand me, the Government guarantees a profit.
    Its not "profit". They are paid a management fee. If first/MTR wasn't running the service then it may have to go to "Operator of Last Resort". Which is Arup/Ernst & Young/SNC. Who get paid a management fee.

    Its not like you get DfT's time free - thats why they outsource. And with the increasingly stupid decisions DfT have been making you really don't want the civil service running the service directly.
    Management fee is a guaranteed profit, no? They get paid, even if they do a piss poor job. In the long run they might lose the fee but they get a paid a fee.

    I just say, cut out the middle man altogether.
    No its not.

    And there will be fees paid even if it is brought in house. Indeed the fees may cost even more by bringing it into State control.
    It is a guaranteed profit, at least in the short term.

    We're paying them a fee to run it, what's the point? Just don't pay the fee and run it ourselves.
    No it isn't.

    They make a profit if they run it for less than they get paid.

    Unless it is a cost+ contract.

    The reason so many privatisations are so successful is because the operators are far better at running things than the Govt, and the politicians who interfere for their own or their supporters' / masters' benefit are more sidelined.
    Oh yes, the railways have been a huge success under privatisation, lol.

    They make a guaranteed profit, they get paid a fee by the Government under the new model, which means there is absolutely no incentive to improve.

    This will do nothing, the service will continue to be piss poor.
    If you look at the data - eg EU comparisons of performance and service levels across countries, none of those claims are accurate. Don't fall for the guff.

    And no - a further assertion does not turn a management fee into a guaranteed profit.

    Profit is revenue minus costs, not just revenue :smile: .
    The railways are piss poor, that's my experience, that is what I think.

    If you are guaranteeing a payment to an operator, you are guaranteeing a profit. If they lose money elsewhere it's really irrelevant in this context.

    What I take issue with is the payment itself, it's a complete waste of time paying a company money to run something which we're now going to basically run ourselves but still pay someone else to.

    The privatised system is a failure. And this change is barely a change at all.

    Either privatise it completely and remove state involvement or nationalise it and run it properly. I don't much mind.
    When I commuted by rail from Berwick to Edinburgh and back every day in the 1960's British Railways was a disaster and had you the experience of rail nationalisation you may not be so sure it will be a success
    British Rail was a disaster, the privatised system is a disaster.
  • Options
    Must get back to work, it's been a pleasure as always
  • Options

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    As long as they aren't making a profit it's not an issue is it?

    No you misunderstand me, the Government guarantees a profit.
    Its not "profit". They are paid a management fee. If first/MTR wasn't running the service then it may have to go to "Operator of Last Resort". Which is Arup/Ernst & Young/SNC. Who get paid a management fee.

    Its not like you get DfT's time free - thats why they outsource. And with the increasingly stupid decisions DfT have been making you really don't want the civil service running the service directly.
    Management fee is a guaranteed profit, no? They get paid, even if they do a piss poor job. In the long run they might lose the fee but they get a paid a fee.

    I just say, cut out the middle man altogether.
    No its not.

    And there will be fees paid even if it is brought in house. Indeed the fees may cost even more by bringing it into State control.
    It is a guaranteed profit, at least in the short term.

    We're paying them a fee to run it, what's the point? Just don't pay the fee and run it ourselves.
    No it isn't.

    They make a profit if they run it for less than they get paid.

    Unless it is a cost+ contract.

    The reason so many privatisations are so successful is because the operators are far better at running things than the Govt, and the politicians who interfere for their own or their supporters' / masters' benefit are more sidelined.
    Oh yes, the railways have been a huge success under privatisation, lol.

    They make a guaranteed profit, they get paid a fee by the Government under the new model, which means there is absolutely no incentive to improve.

    This will do nothing, the service will continue to be piss poor.
    If you look at the data - eg EU comparisons of performance and service levels across countries, none of those claims are accurate. Don't fall for the guff.

    And no - a further assertion does not turn a management fee into a guaranteed profit.

    Profit is revenue minus costs, not just revenue :smile: .
    The railways are piss poor, that's my experience, that is what I think.

    If you are guaranteeing a payment to an operator, you are guaranteeing a profit. If they lose money elsewhere it's really irrelevant in this context.

    What I take issue with is the payment itself, it's a complete waste of time paying a company money to run something which we're now going to basically run ourselves but still pay someone else to.

    The privatised system is a failure. And this change is barely a change at all.

    Either privatise it completely and remove state involvement or nationalise it and run it properly. I don't much mind.
    When I commuted by rail from Berwick to Edinburgh and back every day in the 1960's British Railways was a disaster and had you the experience of rail nationalisation you may not be so sure it will be a success
    British Rail was a disaster, the privatised system is a disaster.
    And so a hybrid system would be the resolution
  • Options

    I need to rename my account to RubbishHorseBattery

    No do not do that
  • Options
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Boris Johnson should resign after briefing we should get back to the office just a few weeks ago. What an absolute dick

    You are just being silly again

    Are you calling Sturgeon, Drakeford, Foster, Macron, Merkel and everyone else to go as this is across all the UK and even worse at present in Europe
    It's sad you're now Johnson's fanboy again, each time you flip flop just makes your next flip look even less convincing
    You really need to grow up

    I'm only stating how I see it, there's no need to be rude Big G.

    You do tend to flip flop on Johnson, you've often "lost faith" and called for him to go, before then flip flopping back to supporting him.

    Just because I have pointed that out, there's no need to respond in this way. I've only been respectful to you, please do the same for me.
    Do not confuse my support for the conservative party and government with my desire to see Boris replaced

    Both are true
    But then you just asked me to grow up and were rude to me, please apologise. I called for Johnson to go as he was saying get back to the office, I don't recall any other leader saying that.
    Please can you show me a video of Boris saying get back to the office as opposed to get back to work.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12334881/boris-johnson-get-back-to-office-on-monday/

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53942542

    https://inews.co.uk/news/analysis/coronavirus-latest-boris-johnson-workers-returning-office-lockdown-615080

    It's obvious to anyone not off the deep end, he is responsible for this
    Not one of those links contains Boris saying to get back to the office even if you can work from home.

    The BBC article claims that a get back to the office campaign would be launched next week. I said at the time to you I bet it was bullshit and so it was. Its more than a week later now, where is that campaign? As I predicted at the time, no campaign was ever launched. Which is why you're quoting media bullshit that a campaign would be launched and not quoting the actual launch of an actual campaign that was never more than the figment of some people's imagination.
    So Boris meant to tell all those WFH to continue to WFH?

    Good call.

    Who was he telling to get back to work?
    Anyone who wasn't working but could work in a COVID-secure environment whether that was at a workplace or at home. As he said.
    Who wasn't working but could work at home if they decided to take his advice?
    There were people who couldn't work from home who could return to work.

    That never meant that every single person including those who could work from home should return to the office.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1307990810231738368

    At best, Eat Out To Help Out is going to have been a complete waste of time

    The media obsession with Eat Out To Help Out potentially being a big casual factor is a bit like the Grouse shooting stuff. Foreign holidays where people have gone partying and people rammed into pubs / beer gardens is far risker than 4 people from the same household sitting quietly having a meal in a restaurant.

    Has there been one recorded "super spreading" event from a trip to Pizza Express reported? In comparison, the media has been full of ones from 300 people rammed in a pub beer garden leading to 10s of confirmed cases and you only have to look at the rate of positive cases among the footballers returning from foreign holidays to see that was a huge problem.
    Except that round here some places were rammed with extra tables and total strangers sharing tables.
    It wasn't gentle dining. It was pile them in. Get them fed, get them out and get more in.
    Here too. Test and Trace has published curiously little on situations where transmissions have occurred. We can only speculate as a result.

    Unless their data is total shite, they should be able to enlighten us, and then we would get better advice and more compliance.
    And of course the most egregious places were the ones not doing any or token, voluntary track and trace. So there is no reliable data.
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,800
    One thing I like.

    The starting on Monday morning means the cycle of restriction doesn't drag over a weekend. If we can have any restrictions properly announced (with supporting papers all ready please) to be in effect from Wednesday and in law soon post- this, it'll save the 'weekend before' spiking effect.

    Then any lifting of regs to be effective on a Monday.

    The other left-field thing one might consider to help going into the winter is suspend the clocks going back this year only, perhaps even put them forward - to support outdoor daylight interactions in the evening. But do that now. (I'm not normally one for tiresome clock change debate, but I feel it could help this year)
  • Options
    TOPPING said:

    Well I am glad I bought those clippers a few months ago and got handy using them, because another 6 months without a haircut could have had me requiring a Gareth Bale style man-bun !!!!

    TBH, I am not sure I will be heading back to the barbers regardless of COVID, for a standard short back and sides clipper type cut, I reckon I have it cracked.

    Have you seen the back of your head??
    There are these magical things called mirrors....revolutionary they are. Mrs U complimented me on my handy work, and she is notoriously hard to impress.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    So to sum up the two science chiefs have been sent out to bat to say:-

    1) believe us because we’re not politicians.

    2) it’s serious and going to get worse, unless we take some significant actions quickly ( thereby giving cover for whatever restrictions are about go be announced).

    3) don’t play fast and loose with the rules, especially you youngsters, who are the gateway for the disease to polish off the oldies.

    4) if you knuckle down for a few months longer there is real hope of a vaccine In the not too distant future, and the U.K. is in a good place to mass immunise quickly.

    I was struck by the positivity in the vaccine. Clearly, it’s not yet a stage three result, let alone an official certified approval, but I struggle to see why the CSO would be so relatively upbeat, if he wasn’t getting some fairly serious steers from people at the forefront of the vaccine research that thenews is highly likely to be good, and not too far off at that.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,932
    Sandpit said:

    Seems a OK idea to me. Renaming Arsenal to 'Emirates Arsenal' for example - as long as the names aren't silly (and as long as the sponsorship package is worked out with what is going to happen after it expires). Isn't solving the funding crisis for TFL a priority for London?
    This is based on an idea from the Dubai Metro, where more than half the stations are sponsored by local businesses and they raised huge amounts of money doing it.

    Most are named after large businesses near the station - think Piccadilly Circus being named ‘Trocadeo’ - but the big money is for the interchange and destination stations, as the station announcers say the names every few minutes. So you’d have a line that goes from BT to Emirates, or from Barclays to JCB.

    Oh, and. you’d announce the sponsorships at the same time as a five year fare freeze.
    It's a shame the fare freeze has already occurred. It is one reason why TFL was in the mess it was in before Covid even appeared on the horizon.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,382
    edited September 2020

    Well I am glad I bought those clippers a few months ago and got handy using them, because another 6 months without a haircut could have had me requiring a Gareth Bale style man-bun !!!!

    TBH, I am not sure I will be heading back to the barbers regardless of COVID, for a standard short back and sides clipper type cut, I reckon I have it cracked.

    Don't you think you would be quite fetching as Samson?

    Just think of all those Atlas Stones you could have lifted.

    Cup and Ball for Geoff Capes types. Though these two look quite miserable.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RqETaG2RuLE
  • Options
    welshowl said:

    So to sum up the two science chiefs have been sent out to bat to say:-

    1) believe us because we’re not politicians.

    2) it’s serious and going to get worse, unless we take some significant actions quickly ( thereby giving cover for whatever restrictions are about go be announced).

    3) don’t play fast and loose with the rules, especially you youngsters, who are the gateway for the disease to polish off the oldies.

    4) if you knuckle down for a few months longer there is real hope of a vaccine In the not too distant future, and the U.K. is in a good place to mass immunise quickly.

    I was struck by the positivity in the vaccine. Clearly, it’s not yet a stage three result, let alone an official certified approval, but I struggle to see why the CSO would be so relatively upbeat, if he wasn’t getting some fairly serious steers from people at the forefront of the vaccine research that thenews is highly likely to be good, and not too far off at that.

    I didn't think the vaccine stuff was positive. The timeline is slipping further and further, now they basically said the vast majority of you aren't getting it until next summer.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,134
    I had wondered where Henrietta had gone in the last few months. Now I see she must have been hired by Whitty for her exponential expertise.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    glw said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Just what I noticed. There is no upward blue column trend over the past few days. They've just bolted on some scary red columns.

    Not to say it wouldn't but really, we have eyes also.
    Yeah, I've noticed that too. It has gone up, but not a sustained exponential growth over the last two weeks. So there is some hope.
    Tests are a lagging indicator, they are showing infections that will have occured going back a week or so. It's possible infections have slowed a bit as perhaps people are taking mitigation a bit more seriously over the last week or two, but I'd want to see several weeks of results before I'd start believing in a new plateau having been reached.
    Good point, and agreed that it isn't an excuse not to do anything.
  • Options

    Another 6-9 months of lockdown / "circuit breakers" / WFH...I can't see how places like Central London ever goes back to being the same.

    If it had been just the 3-6 months of Lockdown #1, I don't think the habit has quite yet set in of WFH etc. Well over a year of it, I think it will just become defacto standard.

    If WFH is viable why shouldn't it be standard?
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,691
    edited September 2020
    TOPPING said:

    Just what I noticed. There is no upward blue column trend over the past few days. They've just bolted on some scary red columns.

    Not to say it wouldn't but really, we have eyes also.
    It's not flat as claimed by Dan Hodges. It could be a linear increase. Actually it looks like a sudden jump in cases in early September is hiding the normal exponential curve for epidemics, making it look more linear. In a week or so that bump will essentially disappear and we will be in the red zone.

    Explanation of this. Increased exposure (schools, Eat out to Help out, return to offices, houseparties etc) is a one-off increase; re-infections are exponential increase.
  • Options

    Another 6-9 months of lockdown / "circuit breakers" / WFH...I can't see how places like Central London ever goes back to being the same.

    If it had been just the 3-6 months of Lockdown #1, I don't think the habit has quite yet set in of WFH etc. Well over a year of it, I think it will just become defacto standard.

    If WFH is viable why shouldn't it be standard?
    I have no issue with it. I have done it for many many years. Just saying, that a lot of major cities have large numbers of workers whose jobs revolve around supporting office workers. I think that might be changing forever.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,839

    This format has caused panic amongst the journalist who have no knowledge of the science and just want it to be political

    Which is exactly why they’ve done it this way. Good call.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Eat Out To Help Out, I am afraid, has been a very poor decision in hindsight.

    Can't get excited about that, or going back to the office, or foreign holidays. We were bound to stick our noses out to see if it was safe to come out yet.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Boris Johnson should resign after briefing we should get back to the office just a few weeks ago. What an absolute dick

    You are just being silly again

    Are you calling Sturgeon, Drakeford, Foster, Macron, Merkel and everyone else to go as this is across all the UK and even worse at present in Europe
    It's sad you're now Johnson's fanboy again, each time you flip flop just makes your next flip look even less convincing
    You really need to grow up

    I'm only stating how I see it, there's no need to be rude Big G.

    You do tend to flip flop on Johnson, you've often "lost faith" and called for him to go, before then flip flopping back to supporting him.

    Just because I have pointed that out, there's no need to respond in this way. I've only been respectful to you, please do the same for me.
    Do not confuse my support for the conservative party and government with my desire to see Boris replaced

    Both are true
    But then you just asked me to grow up and were rude to me, please apologise. I called for Johnson to go as he was saying get back to the office, I don't recall any other leader saying that.
    Please can you show me a video of Boris saying get back to the office as opposed to get back to work.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12334881/boris-johnson-get-back-to-office-on-monday/

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53942542

    https://inews.co.uk/news/analysis/coronavirus-latest-boris-johnson-workers-returning-office-lockdown-615080

    It's obvious to anyone not off the deep end, he is responsible for this
    Not one of those links contains Boris saying to get back to the office even if you can work from home.

    The BBC article claims that a get back to the office campaign would be launched next week. I said at the time to you I bet it was bullshit and so it was. Its more than a week later now, where is that campaign? As I predicted at the time, no campaign was ever launched. Which is why you're quoting media bullshit that a campaign would be launched and not quoting the actual launch of an actual campaign that was never more than the figment of some people's imagination.
    So Boris meant to tell all those WFH to continue to WFH?

    Good call.

    Who was he telling to get back to work?
    Anyone who wasn't working but could work in a COVID-secure environment whether that was at a workplace or at home. As he said.
    Who wasn't working but could work at home if they decided to take his advice?
    There were people who couldn't work from home who could return to work.

    That never meant that every single person including those who could work from home should return to the office.
    Give me some examples.

    Your contention was that when he said go back to work he didn't mean go back to the office/workplace.

    So give me an example.
  • Options
    RobD said:

    glw said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Just what I noticed. There is no upward blue column trend over the past few days. They've just bolted on some scary red columns.

    Not to say it wouldn't but really, we have eyes also.
    Yeah, I've noticed that too. It has gone up, but not a sustained exponential growth over the last two weeks. So there is some hope.
    Tests are a lagging indicator, they are showing infections that will have occured going back a week or so. It's possible infections have slowed a bit as perhaps people are taking mitigation a bit more seriously over the last week or two, but I'd want to see several weeks of results before I'd start believing in a new plateau having been reached.
    Good point, and agreed that it isn't an excuse not to do anything.
    One thing that struck me from a recent Sam Harris episode with a Siddhartha Mukherjee about how a general flaw in the reaction to this pandemic. Due to the nature of this virus, testing needs to focused on finding the virus, not waiting for people with the virus coming to get tests for confirmation.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209

    TOPPING said:

    Well I am glad I bought those clippers a few months ago and got handy using them, because another 6 months without a haircut could have had me requiring a Gareth Bale style man-bun !!!!

    TBH, I am not sure I will be heading back to the barbers regardless of COVID, for a standard short back and sides clipper type cut, I reckon I have it cracked.

    Have you seen the back of your head??
    There are these magical things called mirrors....revolutionary they are. Mrs U complimented me on my handy work, and she is notoriously hard to impress.
    She didn't want to kick a man when he's down.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209
    FF43 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Just what I noticed. There is no upward blue column trend over the past few days. They've just bolted on some scary red columns.

    Not to say it wouldn't but really, we have eyes also.
    It's not flat as claimed by Dan Hodges. It could be a linear increase. Actually it looks like a sudden jump in cases in early September is hiding the normal exponential curve for epidemics, making it look more linear. In a week or so that bump will essentially disappear and we will be in the red zone.
    Ah I see. It's hiding. Gotit thanks.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited September 2020
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Well I am glad I bought those clippers a few months ago and got handy using them, because another 6 months without a haircut could have had me requiring a Gareth Bale style man-bun !!!!

    TBH, I am not sure I will be heading back to the barbers regardless of COVID, for a standard short back and sides clipper type cut, I reckon I have it cracked.

    Have you seen the back of your head??
    There are these magical things called mirrors....revolutionary they are. Mrs U complimented me on my handy work, and she is notoriously hard to impress.
    She didn't want to kick a man when he's down.
    Nah, Mrs U would be the first to whack you in the balls if you messed something up...harsh lady Mrs U.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,079

    welshowl said:

    So to sum up the two science chiefs have been sent out to bat to say:-

    1) believe us because we’re not politicians.

    2) it’s serious and going to get worse, unless we take some significant actions quickly ( thereby giving cover for whatever restrictions are about go be announced).

    3) don’t play fast and loose with the rules, especially you youngsters, who are the gateway for the disease to polish off the oldies.

    4) if you knuckle down for a few months longer there is real hope of a vaccine In the not too distant future, and the U.K. is in a good place to mass immunise quickly.

    I was struck by the positivity in the vaccine. Clearly, it’s not yet a stage three result, let alone an official certified approval, but I struggle to see why the CSO would be so relatively upbeat, if he wasn’t getting some fairly serious steers from people at the forefront of the vaccine research that thenews is highly likely to be good, and not too far off at that.

    I didn't think the vaccine stuff was positive. The timeline is slipping further and further, now they basically said the vast majority of you aren't getting it until next summer.
    June, I think, is a reasonable expectation for mass rollout. It's mine anyway. And that would be not too shabby.
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    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    As long as they aren't making a profit it's not an issue is it?

    No you misunderstand me, the Government guarantees a profit.
    Its not "profit". They are paid a management fee. If first/MTR wasn't running the service then it may have to go to "Operator of Last Resort". Which is Arup/Ernst & Young/SNC. Who get paid a management fee.

    Its not like you get DfT's time free - thats why they outsource. And with the increasingly stupid decisions DfT have been making you really don't want the civil service running the service directly.
    Management fee is a guaranteed profit, no? They get paid, even if they do a piss poor job. In the long run they might lose the fee but they get a paid a fee.

    I just say, cut out the middle man altogether.
    No its not.

    And there will be fees paid even if it is brought in house. Indeed the fees may cost even more by bringing it into State control.
    It is a guaranteed profit, at least in the short term.

    We're paying them a fee to run it, what's the point? Just don't pay the fee and run it ourselves.
    No it isn't.

    They make a profit if they run it for less than they get paid.

    Unless it is a cost+ contract.

    The reason so many privatisations are so successful is because the operators are far better at running things than the Govt, and the politicians who interfere for their own or their supporters' / masters' benefit are more sidelined.
    Oh yes, the railways have been a huge success under privatisation, lol.

    They make a guaranteed profit, they get paid a fee by the Government under the new model, which means there is absolutely no incentive to improve.

    This will do nothing, the service will continue to be piss poor.
    Not sure you can see past "privatised" ="bad" or more entertainingly "profit" = "bad". The service will be directed by contract. As frankly it largely has been for yonks. Thats what a management contract is - if the client wants 3 services I do 3, if they want 30 I do 30. On a management contract there is zero incentive to cut corners or save cash - you get paid the same regardless. Which is the direct opposite of what you are suggesting.

    Where you are right is "there is absolutely no incentive to improve". There will be Key Performance Indicators built into the contract. There is no incentive in spending money to significantly beat these KPIs as (a) thats not what the client requires and (b) not what the client is paying for.

    If by improved service you mean more trains or longer trains or lower fares all of these things have been directly in the DfTs remit already and that doesn't change. If you want more services then your complaint should go to the person setting the contract.
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    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1307990810231738368

    At best, Eat Out To Help Out is going to have been a complete waste of time

    The media obsession with Eat Out To Help Out potentially being a big casual factor is a bit like the Grouse shooting stuff. Foreign holidays where people have gone partying and people rammed into pubs / beer gardens is far risker than 4 people from the same household sitting quietly having a meal in a restaurant.

    Has there been one recorded "super spreading" event from a trip to Pizza Express reported? In comparison, the media has been full of ones from 300 people rammed in a pub beer garden leading to 10s of confirmed cases and you only have to look at the rate of positive cases among the footballers returning from foreign holidays to see that was a huge problem.
    Except that round here some places were rammed with extra tables and total strangers sharing tables.
    It wasn't gentle dining. It was pile them in. Get them fed, get them out and get more in.
    Here too. Test and Trace has published curiously little on situations where transmissions have occurred. We can only speculate as a result.

    Unless their data is total shite, they should be able to enlighten us, and then we would get better advice and more compliance.
    They might not be tracing backwards to source, only forwards to break onward transmission. There's been some discussion of this in Ireland. This thread is interesting.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/President_MU/status/1306908075161518081
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    So that Italian story was more twitter bollocks.

    (refuted by twitter)

    https://twitter.com/lucyallan/status/1304464864744796161
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    welshowl said:

    So to sum up the two science chiefs have been sent out to bat to say:-

    1) believe us because we’re not politicians.

    2) it’s serious and going to get worse, unless we take some significant actions quickly ( thereby giving cover for whatever restrictions are about go be announced).

    3) don’t play fast and loose with the rules, especially you youngsters, who are the gateway for the disease to polish off the oldies.

    4) if you knuckle down for a few months longer there is real hope of a vaccine In the not too distant future, and the U.K. is in a good place to mass immunise quickly.

    I was struck by the positivity in the vaccine. Clearly, it’s not yet a stage three result, let alone an official certified approval, but I struggle to see why the CSO would be so relatively upbeat, if he wasn’t getting some fairly serious steers from people at the forefront of the vaccine research that thenews is highly likely to be good, and not too far off at that.

    I didn't think the vaccine stuff was positive. The timeline is slipping further and further, now they basically said the vast majority of you aren't getting it until next summer.
    Disagree. Think that’s probably the first time ( at least to my recall) someone of the stature of the CSO has mentioned “before the end of the year”, even if only for limited numbers ( presumably health care workers etc).

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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,691
    TOPPING said:

    FF43 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Just what I noticed. There is no upward blue column trend over the past few days. They've just bolted on some scary red columns.

    Not to say it wouldn't but really, we have eyes also.
    It's not flat as claimed by Dan Hodges. It could be a linear increase. Actually it looks like a sudden jump in cases in early September is hiding the normal exponential curve for epidemics, making it look more linear. In a week or so that bump will essentially disappear and we will be in the red zone.
    Ah I see. It's hiding. Gotit thanks.
    Added explanation: Increased exposure (schools, Eat out to Help out, return to offices, houseparties etc) is a one-off increase; re-infections are exponential increase.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,216

    Another 6-9 months of lockdown / "circuit breakers" / WFH...I can't see how places like Central London ever goes back to being the same.

    If it had been just the 3-6 months of Lockdown #1, I don't think the habit has quite yet set in of WFH etc. Well over a year of it, I think it will just become defacto standard.

    If WFH is viable why shouldn't it be standard?
    I have no issue with it. I have done it for many many years. Just saying, that a lot of major cities have large numbers of workers whose jobs revolve around supporting office workers. I think that might be changing forever.
    ...and the people losing their jobs are not all going to be EvulRichFurrrinersWhoFundTheTories
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited September 2020
    kinabalu said:

    welshowl said:

    So to sum up the two science chiefs have been sent out to bat to say:-

    1) believe us because we’re not politicians.

    2) it’s serious and going to get worse, unless we take some significant actions quickly ( thereby giving cover for whatever restrictions are about go be announced).

    3) don’t play fast and loose with the rules, especially you youngsters, who are the gateway for the disease to polish off the oldies.

    4) if you knuckle down for a few months longer there is real hope of a vaccine In the not too distant future, and the U.K. is in a good place to mass immunise quickly.

    I was struck by the positivity in the vaccine. Clearly, it’s not yet a stage three result, let alone an official certified approval, but I struggle to see why the CSO would be so relatively upbeat, if he wasn’t getting some fairly serious steers from people at the forefront of the vaccine research that thenews is highly likely to be good, and not too far off at that.

    I didn't think the vaccine stuff was positive. The timeline is slipping further and further, now they basically said the vast majority of you aren't getting it until next summer.
    June, I think, is a reasonable expectation for mass rollout. It's mine anyway. And that would be not too shabby.
    I am going to have to fork out for a Peloton aren't I....That plus a RTX 3900 and perhaps treat myself with an Xbox Series X.
This discussion has been closed.