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With just 46 days to go till WH2020 Biden moves up in the betting – politicalbetting.com
With just 46 days to go till WH2020 Biden moves up in the betting – politicalbetting.com
Latest WH2020 betting sees Biden edging up a touch. Chart of Betfair exchange from @betdatapolitics pic.twitter.com/TluKRiyx5N
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54212654
Lockdown Harder...yippee ki yay mfers...
'Biden' not so much. I just see him as a puppet man. He's not pulling his own strings.
Would also like to point out, that this and other recent US court decisions - federal and state - demonstrate the essential role of an independent judiciary in maintaining the rule of law against executive - and legislative - machinations, manipulations and malfeasance.
Give it 2 weeks...
Enquiring minds want to know!
Right now, the most likely scenario would appear to be a near-total shutdown of hospitality in about 7-10 days' time, lasting until next Spring. That'll completely eradicate the entire sector, except for takeaway restaurants, and put the unemployment rate up to (at a guess) around 6-6.5 million. If that doesn't successfully stem the octogenarian holocaust then we'll be on to a repeat of April only lasting until there's a vaccine, in which case we might all just as well reach for the whisky and painkillers and be done with it.
THEIR check on the judiciary, is the power to appoint & confirm judges, to make & enforce laws, and to set the parameters (within the Constitution) of judicial review.
So like I said if you're going to follow (IMHO) ridiculous theory that this election is going to follow how one pollster polled 2016 it is pointing to Biden winning by 7%.
We should definitely have facilities available where people can isolate away from their household, not sure I would make them mandatory, but they would be a big help for many.
* I'd bring in the same sort of measures as Australia right now.
OTOH there is absolutely nothing I can do about any of this, so what's the point in taking any interest in any of it? The world is, for the most part, a truly awful place. It's arguably better to remain in ignorance.
The world, for the most part, is a truly wonderful place.
I suspect you're referring to humanity - as Douglas Adams said - one hears mixed reports.
It's genuinely one area that acting collectively makes a lot of sense, but we didn't. We all took different individual measures and it hasn't worked and all of Europe is facing a ruinous second wave.
Unless your job mandates wearing a mask the reality is you spend very little time in one, today I’ve had to wear mine on four occasions for a total of 15 mins. The longest mask wearing day is hospital treatment day which will be seven hours continuous with about 15 mins outside of that. I’m surprised anyone would go on public transport without one, I have some sympathy for bar and shop workers who have to wear them throughout their shift but given the range of people the encounter it makes perfect sense. I really don’t understand what circumstances wearing a mask is an imposition and an infringement of liberties.
https://youtu.be/6C99MtK4ogM
The path from orders to stop socialising with almost everybody and blanket closures of pubs and restaurants at 10pm to the full-scale eradication of hospitality venues is very short and very easy. The millions of sacked workers will simply be dumped on benefits and left to rot. Nothing counts at all anymore except fighting the virus.
And all too often unelected, unaccountable judges with their own agendas twist the law and frustrate the decisions of the democratically elected branches.
That's why Europeans are much more reluctant to have what the French disparagingly call a gouvernement des juges than Americans are.
a) cover the nose
b) mobile phones will pick up your voice fine through the mask
c) don't stop for a chat inside shops
d) don't pace up and down while on the phone
ETA compliance round here is generally good but it is the details people sometimes get wrong.
As for Tulsi, think she was worth a bit of a fling. She reminds me of a woman or two I dated way back when: extremely attractive in many ways BUT when you actually go on your dream date, turns out she's more than a wee bit crazy.
Then if you have any sense, you flee for the hills!
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1306773821068902401?s=20
The House race is also going to be closer than 2018, Dornsife has just a 4% Democratic lead compared to the 8% winning margin they had in 2018 so the GOP could pick up many House seats even if Trump loses
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1306778158016999431?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1307012637901959171?s=20
Deciding completely to reorganise PHE at the same time was a predictable distraction (whatever the failings of that organisation).
Quibbles aside, I agree with you.
Regarding rapid testing, something like this would be a solution for replacing PCR (it is, of course, a novel technology, and not yet available for immediate rollout) - it's pretty well as accurate, and massively simpler.
Sensitive fluorescence detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in clinical samples via one-pot isothermal ligation and transcription
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41551-020-00617-5
...Here, we report a highly sensitive and specific one-pot assay for the fluorescence-based detection of RNA from pathogens. The assay, which can be performed within 30–50 min of incubation time and can reach a limit of detection of 0.1-attomolar RNA concentration, relies on a sustained isothermal reaction cascade producing an RNA aptamer that binds to a fluorogenic dye. The RNA aptamer is transcribed by the T7 RNA polymerase from the ligation product of a promoter DNA probe and a reporter DNA probe that hybridize with the target single-stranded RNA sequence via the SplintR ligase (a Chlorella virus DNA ligase). In 40 nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 samples, the assay reached positive and negative predictive values of 95 and 100%, respectively...
Pooled testing, of course, has been a realistic solution for months now, and would have been particularly useful on easily defined groups (school or university classes; incoming flights etc.).
Enjoy!
You could even run trials of some of the new testing modalities onsite.
I had (stupidly) assumed that all sorts of stuff like this would have been done over the summer when our laboratories were relatively unstressed.
That's what makes it interesting.
The one thing that Sweden has unequivocally got right is the mindset that the restrictions they have put in place are for the long haul. The British and Scottish governments have bithbelseemingly been petrified of coming out and plainly stating the restrictions were going to be in place for a time frame measurable in months and years rather than their pretence that it would be for weeks.
The empty airport hotels have been discussed on here for at least 4 months.
As with many good ideas.
The same is true for data modelling. A good model would have predicted roughly where the hotspots were going to pop up and prepared testing centres nearby and added capacity to temporary local processing while the lighthouses were ramped up. Again, it's a lack of understanding that is holding us back here as a nation. Someone who understands it would have looked at the idiotic sage briefing on demand not increasing very much and told them to go back to the drawing board. She doesn't understand it so just blithely accepted it. As I said yesterday, politicians have some excuse in that they aren't expected to know these things, but she's in charge of a public health body in the middle of a pandemic, a deep understanding of data modelling is a bare minimum expectation. A second in command who has extensive logistics experience and short term deployment of limited resources (someone from the army, probably) should be a necessity too at least until the pandemic has passed.
We've been badly let down by the government and all of us are going to pay for it in the next few years.
As to the test type, it looks very interesting, but ultimately it's not going to be ready so we just need to ramp up PCR testing until such time it can be replaced with something else.
they were told to go on foreign holidays
they were told to return to the office even if they could work from home
they were told to go out to pubs
they were told to go out to restaurants
I socially distance perfectly well, I do none of those things, now I have restrictions put on me so people can make money from people doing those things....they can bugger off
I liked her as a possible Presidential candidate because she would so clearly have broken the mold. My feeling was that doing so was Trump's trick, and that a winning Democrat candidate would have to do much the same.
Nonetheless it's certainly Joe, and I really can't see it. (I'll lose whatever happens - have no great swing)
A new “three tier” approach to coronavirus restrictions has been discussed by Health Secretary Matt Hancock and government officials, the BBC understands.
The system would involve three tiers - the first of which is the level of measures in most places across England now, with social distancing the primary key aspect.
The second tier would involve what is currently imposed in the North East of England - curfews on hospitality venues and a ban on meeting with other households.
The final third tier would involve stricter lockdown measures.
It’s thought it is likely “tier two” may be put in place across the UK - albeit framed in a region-by-region basis rather than as a “national curfew".
The system was discussed at a meeting chaired by the health secretary, and attended by England’s Chief Medical Officer Prof Chris Whitty, his two deputy chief medical officers, the head of the Test and Trace programme, Dido Harding, and local public health officials.
"Tier three" presumably comes about five minutes, and a considerable amount of further panic, after the implementation of "tier two."
As I said yesterday, anyone with a modicum of common sense would have queried the model.
HUGE deal esp. in Ohio and Michigan, where among other gridiron contests the annual Michigan v. Ohio State game pitting Wolverines of MU against Buckeyes of OSU is a REALLY big deal. So much so, that many citizens of both states could NOT tell you the name of their congressman, or even their governor - but would instantly recognize the names of the two most iconic coaches Woody Hayes of Ohio State (1951-78) and: Bo Schembechler of Michigan (1969-89).
Fast-forwarding back to 2020, think Big Ten's reversal and decision to slap the pigskin around is going to give Trumpksy a small bit of lift among hard-core football fans. Most of whom (the White ones anyway) were likely Trumpsky voters BUT some have blamed our Fearless Leader for the situation (wonder why?) which is why he's been rabid (as per usual) urging the Big Ten to blow the whistle and play (foot)ball.
Again, impact is most significant in Ohio and Michigan. My guess helps Trumpsky hold Buckeye State but NOT enough to beat Biden in Wolverine State.
Sort of weird that the SNP is basically on a suicide mission. I presume you'll found the Scottish Whigs on day one post your elegant decline from the system?
More American polls to digest this evening.
NPR/PBS/Marist have Biden leading 52-43 in a straight match with Trump but include other candidates and it becomes a 49-41 lead (not as reported on RCP).
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_202009171415.pdf
A poll sample of 964 registered voters with a 3.8% Margin of Error.
Independents split 50-33 to Biden - among White voters it's tied at 46 and while Trump leads 46-41 in the South, he's well behind elsewhere.
The NY Times/Siena polls show a continuing dead heat in North Carolina but Biden is up 49-40 in Arizona and 17 up in Maine but CD2 remains very tight with Biden up two compared with a nine point in a Quinnipiac poll on Wednesday.
Finally, an EPIC/MRA poll puts Biden up 48-40 in Michigan.
https://www.woodtv.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/51/2020/09/September-Statewide-EPIC-MRA-poll-091820.pdf
A sample of 600 and an MoE of 4%. Interesting in that among Trump supporters, three quarters are voting FOR Biden and only a fifth AGAINST Biden while among Biden supporters less than half (46%) are voting FOR Biden and 40% AGAINST Trump.
On that, you'd reckon Michigan a Republican state were it not for Trump. The incumbent Democrat Seantor leads his Republican challenger 45-41. Only a single Trafalgar poll in mid August put the Republican up a point.
RCP call it a toss-up in their Senate projections which currently have 47 for the GOP and 46 for the Dems and 7 Toss-Ups of which six are held by Republicans.
This is very close - I think the Democrats could win four of the seven which would give them 50 while the Republicans look to win two leaving them on 49 and Iowa on a knife edge.
They are very close now in their central forecasts, but 538 still has a wider tail to its distribution.
And in many other cases you were entirely asymptomatic so you already passed it on without potentially even knowing.
The truth is that running about telling people to wash their hands a bit more and put a little bit more distance and wear some flimsy face coverings are not bad things to suggest but they are not remotely magic bullets. They are firing paperclips at a fighter jet. They are a panacea designed to look like concrete remedial action. I am convinced they are all only rounding errors on the "natural" R number of the virus.
The only thing that has been demonstrably effective is full lockdown, with everything shut, for an extended period. Anything less than that isn't enough and anything that is insufficiently effective to get the R < 1 is almost not worth it, because then you are massively harming your economy without getting the virus to stop growing exponentially anyway which only pushes the problem back a few more weeks, when you need to have a bigger lockdown anyway.
My gut feeling is that balanced across case numbers and the economy, the better idea would have been 3-4 months ago to plan for a scheduled longer second national lockdown with much more normality than what we had in between - go big and binary on it rather than the continual half-and-half wishy-washy compromise which only simultaneously suppresses your economy but also isn't enough to stop case numbers growing quickly.
If you're going to do massive harm to the economy then you simply must get the cases squashed to mean it was worthwhile. I think the danger now is that there won't be the same level of support (e.g. furlough etc.) in the instance of a second lockdown, it will be shorter and not necessarily so uniformly applied and not so wide-reaching, so subsequent lockdowns will suffer from diminishing returns - increasingly ineffective at reducing cases but all the while still being as economically damaging, if not more so, than first time round.
Bizarre to me that there is private testing capacity available. If there is a national emergency on, shouldn't we be buying/nationalizing that?
Instead I have decided to sit back and watch with growing amusement as this "Government of all the Brexit Talents" lurches from one cock up to the next. As entertaining as it was predicable.
Is it these polls that Betfair has reacted to? It's not a massive move, but much more than e've seen for some time.
On "Circuit Breaker" the first usage of it was AFAIK in Singapore - what they did we'd call "lock down":
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Singapore_circuit_breaker_measures
I would also venture to suggest that you do not work in an occupation where you are made to spend eight hours a day, five days a week in one of these gags. It's all very well declaring that these impositions are something that other people should suffer for long periods every day for their own good when you only have to put up with one for twenty minutes twice a week to do the shopping.
FWIW, mask adoption by staff in hospitality venues does indeed seem variable. I've been to three since they re-opened - one without masks, another that definitely had masks or visors everywhere, and a third where I think they may have been using visors, but I'm so used to seeing them by now that I don't quite recall. However, I expect these differences in approach will soon be ironed out when a blanket order enforcing masks in workplaces comes into effect. It's surely only a matter of time?
https://twitter.com/RussVought45/status/1306386119412641795?s=19
It was rather funny when, as we were leaving, the waiter tried to blow out a candle with his mask on. He was rather puzzled that nothing seemed to happen.