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With just 46 days to go till WH2020 Biden moves up in the betting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 18 in General
With just 46 days to go till WH2020 Biden moves up in the betting – politicalbetting.com

Latest WH2020 betting sees Biden edging up a touch. Chart of Betfair exchange from @betdatapolitics pic.twitter.com/TluKRiyx5N

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 3,891
    Au contraire, anything you do on the internet, you should assume someone is looking over your shoulder.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,694
    BIden up to 78% chance on 538 as well.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,487
    edited September 18
    BBC News - Second wave of Covid-19 coming to UK, says PM
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54212654

    Lockdown Harder...yippee ki yay mfers...
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 4,505

    BIden up to 78% chance on 538 as well.

    If it was 'Horse 2' then you'd be all over BF.

    'Biden' not so much. I just see him as a puppet man. He's not pulling his own strings.
  • Would like to point out, that the judge who just tossed a monkey wrench into Trumpsky's machinations against the United States Postal Services, sits in Yakima, Washington serving the US federal court for the Eastern District of WA.

    Would also like to point out, that this and other recent US court decisions - federal and state - demonstrate the essential role of an independent judiciary in maintaining the rule of law against executive - and legislative - machinations, manipulations and malfeasance.
  • Johnson said a second lockdown is the "last thing anybody wants" but said the current measures would need to be kept "under review".

    Give it 2 weeks...
  • Omnium said:

    BIden up to 78% chance on 538 as well.

    If it was 'Horse 2' then you'd be all over BF.

    'Biden' not so much. I just see him as a puppet man. He's not pulling his own strings.
    So who IS pulling Uncle Joe's strings? The Jesuit-Masonic conspiracy? The Tri-lateral Commission? NPR & PBS? OR the Tooth Fairy?

    Enquiring minds want to know!
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 1,540
    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I agree on the breach of law but who cares about another luvvie
    She's a lawyer. But why the anti-"Luvvie" sentiment? Do you not enjoy any form of the dramatic arts? The dislike of actors on PB is quite striking, and seems to come entirely from right of centre posters. Only ISIS brides seem to come in for more stick. One day someone will write a dissertation on it.
    It’s not about any particular profession, but rather about rich hypocrites who promote left-wing ideology in public, while insulating themselves from the effects of it in private.
    How should a person behave if they are rich and left wing?
    Thankful to the capitalist system they pretend to want to smash up, that made them rich in the first place?

    It’s really easy to say you’d be happy to pay 60% or 70% tax rates, when there’s no chance of it actually happening and millions of the woke will like you on Twitter for saying it. If Corbyn had got in you’d have seen a fair few of them ending up in Monaco or Dubai.

    I’ll believe the Luvvies are serious about wanting higher taxes, when they actually start writing the cheques voluntarily.
    Are you being serious? I only ask because it is such a stupid comment.
    I would happily pay more tax but unless all the other rich people do then it's pointless. Can you name a single person who advocated for higher taxes then avoided paying them? So far these left wing hypocrites that so enrage PB Tories seem to exist solely in their imagination.
    Didn't quite a few left wing people go out of their way to avoid inheritance taxes? The Benns spring to mind
  • FishingFishing Posts: 1,287

    Would like to point out, that the judge who just tossed a monkey wrench into Trumpsky's machinations against the United States Postal Services, sits in Yakima, Washington serving the US federal court for the Eastern District of WA.

    Would also like to point out, that this and other recent US court decisions - federal and state - demonstrate the essential role of an independent judiciary in maintaining the rule of law against executive - and legislative - machinations, manipulations and malfeasance.

    Because judges never machinate, manipulate or malfease?
  • Johnson said a second lockdown is the "last thing anybody wants" but said the current measures would need to be kept "under review".

    Give it 2 weeks...

    Yes we are clearly being buttered up for it. Get as much bog roll in as you can!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,244
    Honestly if we have a second national lockdown the key decision in this was appointing Harding to run the testing system. She's wholly unequipped and has fallen short and now we're all going to pay the price. By now we should have double the testing capacity and 1m per day by the end of November. The government needs to sack Harding and get a data modelling specialist to take over and logistics specialist to run the logistics.
  • MaxPB said:

    Honestly if we have a second national lockdown the key decision in this was appointing Harding to run the testing system. She's wholly unequipped and has fallen short and now we're all going to pay the price. By now we should have double the testing capacity and 1m per day by the end of November. The government needs to sack Harding and get a data modelling specialist to take over and logistics specialist to run the logistics.

    Im no fan of Harding or the government but realistically similar is happening in many countries she has nothing to do with. Replace her with someone competent please but I doubt if someone else was doing her job we would be able to avoid a second lockdown.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,244

    MaxPB said:

    Honestly if we have a second national lockdown the key decision in this was appointing Harding to run the testing system. She's wholly unequipped and has fallen short and now we're all going to pay the price. By now we should have double the testing capacity and 1m per day by the end of November. The government needs to sack Harding and get a data modelling specialist to take over and logistics specialist to run the logistics.

    Im no fan of Harding or the government but realistically similar is happening in many countries she has nothing to do with. Replace her with someone competent please but I doubt if someone else was doing her job we would be able to avoid a second lockdown.
    We'd be able to throw testing at the problem which reduces the number of infected people in the community as people who test positive need to self isolate. I'd also have tougher rules on that and have effective mandatory isolation with government run centres where people are moved to for a short period of time until they beat the virus.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 5,714
    edited September 18

    Johnson said a second lockdown is the "last thing anybody wants" but said the current measures would need to be kept "under review".

    Give it 2 weeks...

    "Circuit break" is, of course, a euphemism for lockdown anyway. It is impossible to know from one day to the next what this lot are going to do - I was predicting about 48 hours ago that the economy would be salami sliced to death, but it looks like they're just going to stick a loaded revolver to its head and decorate the walls with its grey matter.

    Right now, the most likely scenario would appear to be a near-total shutdown of hospitality in about 7-10 days' time, lasting until next Spring. That'll completely eradicate the entire sector, except for takeaway restaurants, and put the unemployment rate up to (at a guess) around 6-6.5 million. If that doesn't successfully stem the octogenarian holocaust then we'll be on to a repeat of April only lasting until there's a vaccine, in which case we might all just as well reach for the whisky and painkillers and be done with it.
  • Fishing said:

    Would like to point out, that the judge who just tossed a monkey wrench into Trumpsky's machinations against the United States Postal Services, sits in Yakima, Washington serving the US federal court for the Eastern District of WA.

    Would also like to point out, that this and other recent US court decisions - federal and state - demonstrate the essential role of an independent judiciary in maintaining the rule of law against executive - and legislative - machinations, manipulations and malfeasance.

    Because judges never machinate, manipulate or malfease?
    I think that's the whole point.
  • Fishing said:

    Would like to point out, that the judge who just tossed a monkey wrench into Trumpsky's machinations against the United States Postal Services, sits in Yakima, Washington serving the US federal court for the Eastern District of WA.

    Would also like to point out, that this and other recent US court decisions - federal and state - demonstrate the essential role of an independent judiciary in maintaining the rule of law against executive - and legislative - machinations, manipulations and malfeasance.

    Because judges never machinate, manipulate or malfease?
    Never say never! However, an independent judiciary IS a check on the other two branches.

    THEIR check on the judiciary, is the power to appoint & confirm judges, to make & enforce laws, and to set the parameters (within the Constitution) of judicial review.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 4,505
    edited September 18

    Omnium said:

    BIden up to 78% chance on 538 as well.

    If it was 'Horse 2' then you'd be all over BF.

    'Biden' not so much. I just see him as a puppet man. He's not pulling his own strings.
    So who IS pulling Uncle Joe's strings? The Jesuit-Masonic conspiracy? The Tri-lateral Commission? NPR & PBS? OR the Tooth Fairy?

    Enquiring minds want to know!
    Oh no idea. Almost certainly younger Biden-like figures. I'm reasonably sure (edit) he's representing his own views, but that representation isn't his own.
  • Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    BIden up to 78% chance on 538 as well.

    If it was 'Horse 2' then you'd be all over BF.

    'Biden' not so much. I just see him as a puppet man. He's not pulling his own strings.
    So who IS pulling Uncle Joe's strings? The Jesuit-Masonic conspiracy? The Tri-lateral Commission? NPR & PBS? OR the Tooth Fairy?

    Enquiring minds want to know!
    Oh no idea. Almost certainly younger Biden-like figures. I'm reasonably he's representing his own views, but that representation isn't his own.
    So far 2020 has proved to be a year where underestimating Joe Biden is a popular activity, but NOT productive OR profitable.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 15,142
    There will be no national lockdown, just repeated circuit breakers across all regions.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,244
    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    Honestly if we have a second national lockdown the key decision in this was appointing Harding to run the testing system. She's wholly unequipped and has fallen short and now we're all going to pay the price. By now we should have double the testing capacity and 1m per day by the end of November. The government needs to sack Harding and get a data modelling specialist to take over and logistics specialist to run the logistics.

    Im no fan of Harding or the government but realistically similar is happening in many countries she has nothing to do with. Replace her with someone competent please but I doubt if someone else was doing her job we would be able to avoid a second lockdown.
    I wish it was as simple as firing Harding, or replacing Johnson, but I honestly blame the public most fo all. There are simply way too many people who since the beginning of July, and to an extent before then, who are not complying with the generally simple and reasonable measures that are required of us.
    That's not entirely true, we're importing thousands of cases per week from red list countries outside of Europe. A new PM may actually step up and tell the travel industry the new normal is Europe only until there's a reliable vaccine. We need to close the nation to arrivals from everywhere outside of Europe and have very, very tough quarantine measures for arrivals from Europe. I'm talking ankle tag tracking and £10k fines for breaking it. Over time we can figure out a testing system that works for incoming arrivals from outside of Europe but for now this is a huge source of new cases that we don't have any need to take in.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 1,371
    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    A lot of money going on Biden. Now down to 1.81 on Betfair.

    They better hope the poll average is right, if Rasmussen is right on the popular vote and Trafalgar is right on the Midwest swing states as they were in 2016 they are stuffed
    I think you are probably right: at this point in 2016 Rasmussen had Trump 5% ahead of Clinton, actual result Clinton 2% ahead of Trump. The latest Rasmussen poll has Trump-Biden even, so if Rasmussen are as right as in 2016 Biden will win by 7%, which is probably a good estimate for now.
    The latest Rasmussen has Trump 1% ahead, on September 12th to 13th Rasmussen had Trump 2% ahead on September 27th to 29th Rasmussen had Hillary 1% ahead

    https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/election_2016_white_house_watch_trends
    Rasmussen Sept 20 to 21st 2016 Trump 5 ahead of Clinton. The election this year is 5 days earlier than in 2016 so the equivalent dates are 15th to 16th September. The latest Rasmussen polling sampling ended 15th September. 538 has that poll as "Even" rather than Trump 1% ahead because I believe 538 look at the numbers to one decimal place, so it's only a rounding error that makes you think it has Trump 1% ahead.

    So like I said if you're going to follow (IMHO) ridiculous theory that this election is going to follow how one pollster polled 2016 it is pointing to Biden winning by 7%.
  • spire2spire2 Posts: 183

    Johnson said a second lockdown is the "last thing anybody wants" but said the current measures would need to be kept "under review".

    Give it 2 weeks...

    "Circuit break" is, of course, a euphemism for lockdown anyway. It is impossible to know from one day to the next what this lot are going to do - I was predicting about 48 hours ago that the economy would be salami sliced to death, but it looks like they're just going to stick a loaded revolver to its head and decorate the walls with its grey matter.

    Right now, the most likely scenario would appear to be a near-total shutdown of hospitality in about 7-10 days' time, lasting until next Spring. That'll completely eradicate the entire sector, except for takeaway restaurants, and put the unemployment rate up to (at a guess) around 6-6.5 million. If that doesn't successfully stem the octogenarian holocaust then we'll be on to a repeat of April only lasting until there's a vaccine, in which case we might all just as well reach for the whisky and painkillers and be done with it.
    I know things don't look good but I think you could do with taking a few days away from watching the news. You sound as though you think theres no future
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 4,505

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    BIden up to 78% chance on 538 as well.

    If it was 'Horse 2' then you'd be all over BF.

    'Biden' not so much. I just see him as a puppet man. He's not pulling his own strings.
    So who IS pulling Uncle Joe's strings? The Jesuit-Masonic conspiracy? The Tri-lateral Commission? NPR & PBS? OR the Tooth Fairy?

    Enquiring minds want to know!
    Oh no idea. Almost certainly younger Biden-like figures. I'm reasonably he's representing his own views, but that representation isn't his own.
    So far 2020 has proved to be a year where underestimating Joe Biden is a popular activity, but NOT productive OR profitable.
    Yes. I'm hugely all red because of underestimating Biden (but mainly having a flyer on Gabbard). I did underestimate him for a reason though.

  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,694
    Jonathan said:

    There will be no national lockdown, just repeated circuit breakers across all regions.

    In a very limited and specific way
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Honestly if we have a second national lockdown the key decision in this was appointing Harding to run the testing system. She's wholly unequipped and has fallen short and now we're all going to pay the price. By now we should have double the testing capacity and 1m per day by the end of November. The government needs to sack Harding and get a data modelling specialist to take over and logistics specialist to run the logistics.

    Im no fan of Harding or the government but realistically similar is happening in many countries she has nothing to do with. Replace her with someone competent please but I doubt if someone else was doing her job we would be able to avoid a second lockdown.
    We'd be able to throw testing at the problem which reduces the number of infected people in the community as people who test positive need to self isolate. I'd also have tougher rules on that and have effective mandatory isolation with government run centres where people are moved to for a short period of time until they beat the virus.
    It is very curious that we expect people to quarantine from their family at home, when we know that for a very significant proportion of the population that is impossible due to lack of space.

    We should definitely have facilities available where people can isolate away from their household, not sure I would make them mandatory, but they would be a big help for many.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,244

    Johnson said a second lockdown is the "last thing anybody wants" but said the current measures would need to be kept "under review".

    Give it 2 weeks...

    "Circuit break" is, of course, a euphemism for lockdown anyway. It is impossible to know from one day to the next what this lot are going to do - I was predicting about 48 hours ago that the economy would be salami sliced to death, but it looks like they're just going to stick a loaded revolver to its head and decorate the walls with its grey matter.

    Right now, the most likely scenario would appear to be a near-total shutdown of hospitality in about 7-10 days' time, lasting until next Spring. That'll completely eradicate the entire sector, except for takeaway restaurants, and put the unemployment rate up to (at a guess) around 6-6.5 million. If that doesn't successfully stem the octogenarian holocaust then we'll be on to a repeat of April only lasting until there's a vaccine, in which case we might all just as well reach for the whisky and painkillers and be done with it.
    I don't think it's as bad as all that. From what I can see the government will avoid shutting down industry at basically any cost. Any lockdown is going to be "stop going to granny's house you fucking idiots, you're going to kill her".
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,076
    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    Honestly if we have a second national lockdown the key decision in this was appointing Harding to run the testing system. She's wholly unequipped and has fallen short and now we're all going to pay the price. By now we should have double the testing capacity and 1m per day by the end of November. The government needs to sack Harding and get a data modelling specialist to take over and logistics specialist to run the logistics.

    Im no fan of Harding or the government but realistically similar is happening in many countries she has nothing to do with. Replace her with someone competent please but I doubt if someone else was doing her job we would be able to avoid a second lockdown.
    I wish it was as simple as firing Harding, or replacing Johnson, but I honestly blame the public most fo all. There are simply way too many people who since the beginning of July, and to an extent before then, who are not complying with the generally simple and reasonable measures that are required of us.
    The biggest difference I notice between Italy/Germany and back home is that in both of the former, mask wearing has been near universally adopted, by everyone where it’s required, and by many even when it isn’t. I don’t detect any of the surly resistance that we see in the UK and worse in the US. Here, it’s simply become a social norm and everyone is doing their bit.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,244
    edited September 18

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Honestly if we have a second national lockdown the key decision in this was appointing Harding to run the testing system. She's wholly unequipped and has fallen short and now we're all going to pay the price. By now we should have double the testing capacity and 1m per day by the end of November. The government needs to sack Harding and get a data modelling specialist to take over and logistics specialist to run the logistics.

    Im no fan of Harding or the government but realistically similar is happening in many countries she has nothing to do with. Replace her with someone competent please but I doubt if someone else was doing her job we would be able to avoid a second lockdown.
    We'd be able to throw testing at the problem which reduces the number of infected people in the community as people who test positive need to self isolate. I'd also have tougher rules on that and have effective mandatory isolation with government run centres where people are moved to for a short period of time until they beat the virus.
    It is very curious that we expect people to quarantine from their family at home, when we know that for a very significant proportion of the population that is impossible due to lack of space.

    We should definitely have facilities available where people can isolate away from their household, not sure I would make them mandatory, but they would be a big help for many.
    It should absolutely be mandatory, fuck the libertarians, let them scream all they want. We've got to move to a system that assumes no one is isolating properly and aren't wearing masks properly (or at all) and aren't social distancing during home visits with friends and family. That plus red list incoming travellers are the source of the second wave. We can fix the first, third and last issues fairly easily IMO and any cost of it is massively cheaper than a second lockdown which will cost 10% of GDP that we will find it difficult to recover.
  • glwglw Posts: 6,699
    MaxPB said:

    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    Honestly if we have a second national lockdown the key decision in this was appointing Harding to run the testing system. She's wholly unequipped and has fallen short and now we're all going to pay the price. By now we should have double the testing capacity and 1m per day by the end of November. The government needs to sack Harding and get a data modelling specialist to take over and logistics specialist to run the logistics.

    Im no fan of Harding or the government but realistically similar is happening in many countries she has nothing to do with. Replace her with someone competent please but I doubt if someone else was doing her job we would be able to avoid a second lockdown.
    I wish it was as simple as firing Harding, or replacing Johnson, but I honestly blame the public most fo all. There are simply way too many people who since the beginning of July, and to an extent before then, who are not complying with the generally simple and reasonable measures that are required of us.
    That's not entirely true, we're importing thousands of cases per week from red list countries outside of Europe. A new PM may actually step up and tell the travel industry the new normal is Europe only until there's a reliable vaccine. We need to close the nation to arrivals from everywhere outside of Europe and have very, very tough quarantine measures for arrivals from Europe. I'm talking ankle tag tracking and £10k fines for breaking it. Over time we can figure out a testing system that works for incoming arrivals from outside of Europe but for now this is a huge source of new cases that we don't have any need to take in.
    Measures that tough would be a de facto ban. So you might as well ban* overseas travel, except for demonstrably necessary or humanitarian reasons, and save the money on tagging a couple of hundred thousand people a day. The airlines are toast until there's a vaccine or an exceptionally good and rapid test.

    * I'd bring in the same sort of measures as Australia right now.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 5,714
    spire2 said:

    Johnson said a second lockdown is the "last thing anybody wants" but said the current measures would need to be kept "under review".

    Give it 2 weeks...

    "Circuit break" is, of course, a euphemism for lockdown anyway. It is impossible to know from one day to the next what this lot are going to do - I was predicting about 48 hours ago that the economy would be salami sliced to death, but it looks like they're just going to stick a loaded revolver to its head and decorate the walls with its grey matter.

    Right now, the most likely scenario would appear to be a near-total shutdown of hospitality in about 7-10 days' time, lasting until next Spring. That'll completely eradicate the entire sector, except for takeaway restaurants, and put the unemployment rate up to (at a guess) around 6-6.5 million. If that doesn't successfully stem the octogenarian holocaust then we'll be on to a repeat of April only lasting until there's a vaccine, in which case we might all just as well reach for the whisky and painkillers and be done with it.
    I know things don't look good but I think you could do with taking a few days away from watching the news. You sound as though you think theres no future
    I have already been thinking the same thing myself. Frankly, I don't think there is much of a future to look forward to, and I also think that's a rational position to adopt. If the only solution to this full spectrum catastrophe (or, at any rate, the only one anybody in authority will contemplate) is continuous rolling lockdowns then the only people who have a means of escape are those so rich that they can simply pack their Louis Vuitton valises and go somewhere less shit, i.e. just about anywhere other than this disintegrating rubbish dump of a country. The rest of us are completely, permanently, terminally screwed.

    OTOH there is absolutely nothing I can do about any of this, so what's the point in taking any interest in any of it? The world is, for the most part, a truly awful place. It's arguably better to remain in ignorance.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 4,505

    spire2 said:

    Johnson said a second lockdown is the "last thing anybody wants" but said the current measures would need to be kept "under review".

    Give it 2 weeks...

    "Circuit break" is, of course, a euphemism for lockdown anyway. It is impossible to know from one day to the next what this lot are going to do - I was predicting about 48 hours ago that the economy would be salami sliced to death, but it looks like they're just going to stick a loaded revolver to its head and decorate the walls with its grey matter.

    Right now, the most likely scenario would appear to be a near-total shutdown of hospitality in about 7-10 days' time, lasting until next Spring. That'll completely eradicate the entire sector, except for takeaway restaurants, and put the unemployment rate up to (at a guess) around 6-6.5 million. If that doesn't successfully stem the octogenarian holocaust then we'll be on to a repeat of April only lasting until there's a vaccine, in which case we might all just as well reach for the whisky and painkillers and be done with it.
    I know things don't look good but I think you could do with taking a few days away from watching the news. You sound as though you think theres no future
    I have already been thinking the same thing myself. Frankly, I don't think there is much of a future to look forward to, and I also think that's a rational position to adopt. If the only solution to this full spectrum catastrophe (or, at any rate, the only one anybody in authority will contemplate) is continuous rolling lockdowns then the only people who have a means of escape are those so rich that they can simply pack their Louis Vuitton valises and go somewhere less shit, i.e. just about anywhere other than this disintegrating rubbish dump of a country. The rest of us are completely, permanently, terminally screwed.

    OTOH there is absolutely nothing I can do about any of this, so what's the point in taking any interest in any of it? The world is, for the most part, a truly awful place. It's arguably better to remain in ignorance.
    Nonsense.

    The world, for the most part, is a truly wonderful place.

    I suspect you're referring to humanity - as Douglas Adams said - one hears mixed reports.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,244
    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    Honestly if we have a second national lockdown the key decision in this was appointing Harding to run the testing system. She's wholly unequipped and has fallen short and now we're all going to pay the price. By now we should have double the testing capacity and 1m per day by the end of November. The government needs to sack Harding and get a data modelling specialist to take over and logistics specialist to run the logistics.

    Im no fan of Harding or the government but realistically similar is happening in many countries she has nothing to do with. Replace her with someone competent please but I doubt if someone else was doing her job we would be able to avoid a second lockdown.
    I wish it was as simple as firing Harding, or replacing Johnson, but I honestly blame the public most fo all. There are simply way too many people who since the beginning of July, and to an extent before then, who are not complying with the generally simple and reasonable measures that are required of us.
    That's not entirely true, we're importing thousands of cases per week from red list countries outside of Europe. A new PM may actually step up and tell the travel industry the new normal is Europe only until there's a reliable vaccine. We need to close the nation to arrivals from everywhere outside of Europe and have very, very tough quarantine measures for arrivals from Europe. I'm talking ankle tag tracking and £10k fines for breaking it. Over time we can figure out a testing system that works for incoming arrivals from outside of Europe but for now this is a huge source of new cases that we don't have any need to take in.
    Measures that tough would be a de facto ban. So you might as well ban* overseas travel, except for demonstrably necessary or humanitarian reasons, and save the money on tagging a couple of hundred thousand people a day. The airlines are toast until there's a vaccine or an exceptionally good and rapid test.

    * I'd bring in the same sort of measures as Australia right now.
    I think collectively Europe should have had a single travel and quarantine policy for non-European countries. Acting separately we all had exemptions for different countries and loose quarantine rules (ours especially so) and the ease of travel in Europe by plane, boat, car and train means that our virus measures are as porous as the weakest measures.

    It's genuinely one area that acting collectively makes a lot of sense, but we didn't. We all took different individual measures and it hasn't worked and all of Europe is facing a ruinous second wave.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 33,190
    MaxPB said:

    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    Honestly if we have a second national lockdown the key decision in this was appointing Harding to run the testing system. She's wholly unequipped and has fallen short and now we're all going to pay the price. By now we should have double the testing capacity and 1m per day by the end of November. The government needs to sack Harding and get a data modelling specialist to take over and logistics specialist to run the logistics.

    Im no fan of Harding or the government but realistically similar is happening in many countries she has nothing to do with. Replace her with someone competent please but I doubt if someone else was doing her job we would be able to avoid a second lockdown.
    I wish it was as simple as firing Harding, or replacing Johnson, but I honestly blame the public most fo all. There are simply way too many people who since the beginning of July, and to an extent before then, who are not complying with the generally simple and reasonable measures that are required of us.
    That's not entirely true, we're importing thousands of cases per week from red list countries outside of Europe. A new PM may actually step up and tell the travel industry the new normal is Europe only until there's a reliable vaccine. We need to close the nation to arrivals from everywhere outside of Europe and have very, very tough quarantine measures for arrivals from Europe. I'm talking ankle tag tracking and £10k fines for breaking it. Over time we can figure out a testing system that works for incoming arrivals from outside of Europe but for now this is a huge source of new cases that we don't have any need to take in.
    I would suggest that we do exactly what the Chinese do, and for people (yes, including Brits) arriving from higher risk areas have the staying at airport hotels and being checked every 48 hours. It seems madness to allow me to fly in from the US and then jump on the Heathrow Express or the tube or in a taxi, without any kind of testing at all.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 35,161
    nichomar said:

    Mask wearing reality
    Unless your job mandates wearing a mask the reality is you spend very little time in one, today I’ve had to wear mine on four occasions for a total of 15 mins. The longest mask wearing day is hospital treatment day which will be seven hours continuous with about 15 mins outside of that. I’m surprised anyone would go on public transport without one, I have some sympathy for bar and shop workers who have to wear them throughout their shift but given the range of people the encounter it makes perfect sense. I really don’t understand what circumstances wearing a mask is an imposition and an infringement of liberties.

    +1
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,244
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    Honestly if we have a second national lockdown the key decision in this was appointing Harding to run the testing system. She's wholly unequipped and has fallen short and now we're all going to pay the price. By now we should have double the testing capacity and 1m per day by the end of November. The government needs to sack Harding and get a data modelling specialist to take over and logistics specialist to run the logistics.

    Im no fan of Harding or the government but realistically similar is happening in many countries she has nothing to do with. Replace her with someone competent please but I doubt if someone else was doing her job we would be able to avoid a second lockdown.
    I wish it was as simple as firing Harding, or replacing Johnson, but I honestly blame the public most fo all. There are simply way too many people who since the beginning of July, and to an extent before then, who are not complying with the generally simple and reasonable measures that are required of us.
    That's not entirely true, we're importing thousands of cases per week from red list countries outside of Europe. A new PM may actually step up and tell the travel industry the new normal is Europe only until there's a reliable vaccine. We need to close the nation to arrivals from everywhere outside of Europe and have very, very tough quarantine measures for arrivals from Europe. I'm talking ankle tag tracking and £10k fines for breaking it. Over time we can figure out a testing system that works for incoming arrivals from outside of Europe but for now this is a huge source of new cases that we don't have any need to take in.
    I would suggest that we do exactly what the Chinese do, and for people (yes, including Brits) arriving from higher risk areas have the staying at airport hotels and being checked every 48 hours. It seems madness to allow me to fly in from the US and then jump on the Heathrow Express or the tube or in a taxi, without any kind of testing at all.
    Yes, it's a major source of new virus cases. I saw your reply to my email, I'm working on the piece this weekend, hopefully it's interesting.
  • After failed attempt of Andrew Neil interview with Anders yesterday, he has done it today...

  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 5,714
    MaxPB said:

    Johnson said a second lockdown is the "last thing anybody wants" but said the current measures would need to be kept "under review".

    Give it 2 weeks...

    "Circuit break" is, of course, a euphemism for lockdown anyway. It is impossible to know from one day to the next what this lot are going to do - I was predicting about 48 hours ago that the economy would be salami sliced to death, but it looks like they're just going to stick a loaded revolver to its head and decorate the walls with its grey matter.

    Right now, the most likely scenario would appear to be a near-total shutdown of hospitality in about 7-10 days' time, lasting until next Spring. That'll completely eradicate the entire sector, except for takeaway restaurants, and put the unemployment rate up to (at a guess) around 6-6.5 million. If that doesn't successfully stem the octogenarian holocaust then we'll be on to a repeat of April only lasting until there's a vaccine, in which case we might all just as well reach for the whisky and painkillers and be done with it.
    I don't think it's as bad as all that. From what I can see the government will avoid shutting down industry at basically any cost. Any lockdown is going to be "stop going to granny's house you fucking idiots, you're going to kill her".
    From what I can see the Government will fly into a blind panic at the first sign of any resurgence of the disease. Because that's what has already started.

    The path from orders to stop socialising with almost everybody and blanket closures of pubs and restaurants at 10pm to the full-scale eradication of hospitality venues is very short and very easy. The millions of sacked workers will simply be dumped on benefits and left to rot. Nothing counts at all anymore except fighting the virus.
  • In Northumberland on holiday. Everyone going about their business as usual today despite lockdown regs hitting earlier. Tourist places been v busy all week. Now enjoying a couple of local ales being in one of the Corbridge pubs tonight. Keep calm and carry on!
  • FishingFishing Posts: 1,287

    Fishing said:

    Would like to point out, that the judge who just tossed a monkey wrench into Trumpsky's machinations against the United States Postal Services, sits in Yakima, Washington serving the US federal court for the Eastern District of WA.

    Would also like to point out, that this and other recent US court decisions - federal and state - demonstrate the essential role of an independent judiciary in maintaining the rule of law against executive - and legislative - machinations, manipulations and malfeasance.

    Because judges never machinate, manipulate or malfease?
    Never say never! However, an independent judiciary IS a check on the other two branches.

    THEIR check on the judiciary, is the power to appoint & confirm judges, to make & enforce laws, and to set the parameters (within the Constitution) of judicial review.
    If you need that kind of check then you've got the wrong executive and the wrong legislators. Elections are the cure.

    And all too often unelected, unaccountable judges with their own agendas twist the law and frustrate the decisions of the democratically elected branches.

    That's why Europeans are much more reluctant to have what the French disparagingly call a gouvernement des juges than Americans are.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 4,713
    edited September 18
    There is still some low hanging fruit on masks for HMG's messaging teams; many people still treat them as a magic talisman.
    a) cover the nose
    b) mobile phones will pick up your voice fine through the mask
    c) don't stop for a chat inside shops
    d) don't pace up and down while on the phone

    ETA compliance round here is generally good but it is the details people sometimes get wrong.
  • Andrew Neil not holding back on Anders...he asks some difficult questions of Sweden's approach.
  • Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    BIden up to 78% chance on 538 as well.

    If it was 'Horse 2' then you'd be all over BF.

    'Biden' not so much. I just see him as a puppet man. He's not pulling his own strings.
    So who IS pulling Uncle Joe's strings? The Jesuit-Masonic conspiracy? The Tri-lateral Commission? NPR & PBS? OR the Tooth Fairy?

    Enquiring minds want to know!
    Oh no idea. Almost certainly younger Biden-like figures. I'm reasonably he's representing his own views, but that representation isn't his own.
    So far 2020 has proved to be a year where underestimating Joe Biden is a popular activity, but NOT productive OR profitable.
    Yes. I'm hugely all red because of underestimating Biden (but mainly having a flyer on Gabbard). I did underestimate him for a reason though.

    Your's truly also underestimated Uncle Joe early this year (but am too chicken to put cash on the barrel head!)

    As for Tulsi, think she was worth a bit of a fling. She reminds me of a woman or two I dated way back when: extremely attractive in many ways BUT when you actually go on your dream date, turns out she's more than a wee bit crazy.

    Then if you have any sense, you flee for the hills!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 78,329
    Depends what polls you look at, one national online poll yesterday had just a 2% Biden lead for example and Rasmussen even has Trump 1% ahead.


    The House race is also going to be closer than 2018, Dornsife has just a 4% Democratic lead compared to the 8% winning margin they had in 2018 so the GOP could pick up many House seats even if Trump loses
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 25,915
    MaxPB said:

    Honestly if we have a second national lockdown the key decision in this was appointing Harding to run the testing system. She's wholly unequipped and has fallen short and now we're all going to pay the price. By now we should have double the testing capacity and 1m per day by the end of November. The government needs to sack Harding and get a data modelling specialist to take over and logistics specialist to run the logistics.

    While I don't think it quite as simple as that, there's little doubt that we've squandered the last two or three months in preparing for what's happening. And it's the major factor in losing control of the infection again.
    Deciding completely to reorganise PHE at the same time was a predictable distraction (whatever the failings of that organisation).

    Quibbles aside, I agree with you.

    Regarding rapid testing, something like this would be a solution for replacing PCR (it is, of course, a novel technology, and not yet available for immediate rollout) - it's pretty well as accurate, and massively simpler.

    Sensitive fluorescence detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in clinical samples via one-pot isothermal ligation and transcription
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41551-020-00617-5
    ...Here, we report a highly sensitive and specific one-pot assay for the fluorescence-based detection of RNA from pathogens. The assay, which can be performed within 30–50 min of incubation time and can reach a limit of detection of 0.1-attomolar RNA concentration, relies on a sustained isothermal reaction cascade producing an RNA aptamer that binds to a fluorogenic dye. The RNA aptamer is transcribed by the T7 RNA polymerase from the ligation product of a promoter DNA probe and a reporter DNA probe that hybridize with the target single-stranded RNA sequence via the SplintR ligase (a Chlorella virus DNA ligase). In 40 nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 samples, the assay reached positive and negative predictive values of 95 and 100%, respectively...

    Pooled testing, of course, has been a realistic solution for months now, and would have been particularly useful on easily defined groups (school or university classes; incoming flights etc.).
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,776
    edited September 18
    OldBasing said:

    In Northumberland on holiday. Everyone going about their business as usual today despite lockdown regs hitting earlier. Tourist places been v busy all week. Now enjoying a couple of local ales being in one of the Corbridge pubs tonight. Keep calm and carry on!

    Ooh which one? Bull, Angel, Dyvels?
    Enjoy!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 25,915
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    Honestly if we have a second national lockdown the key decision in this was appointing Harding to run the testing system. She's wholly unequipped and has fallen short and now we're all going to pay the price. By now we should have double the testing capacity and 1m per day by the end of November. The government needs to sack Harding and get a data modelling specialist to take over and logistics specialist to run the logistics.

    Im no fan of Harding or the government but realistically similar is happening in many countries she has nothing to do with. Replace her with someone competent please but I doubt if someone else was doing her job we would be able to avoid a second lockdown.
    I wish it was as simple as firing Harding, or replacing Johnson, but I honestly blame the public most fo all. There are simply way too many people who since the beginning of July, and to an extent before then, who are not complying with the generally simple and reasonable measures that are required of us.
    That's not entirely true, we're importing thousands of cases per week from red list countries outside of Europe. A new PM may actually step up and tell the travel industry the new normal is Europe only until there's a reliable vaccine. We need to close the nation to arrivals from everywhere outside of Europe and have very, very tough quarantine measures for arrivals from Europe. I'm talking ankle tag tracking and £10k fines for breaking it. Over time we can figure out a testing system that works for incoming arrivals from outside of Europe but for now this is a huge source of new cases that we don't have any need to take in.
    I would suggest that we do exactly what the Chinese do, and for people (yes, including Brits) arriving from higher risk areas have the staying at airport hotels and being checked every 48 hours. It seems madness to allow me to fly in from the US and then jump on the Heathrow Express or the tube or in a taxi, without any kind of testing at all.
    Particularly as airport hotels must have mainly vacant rooms.
    You could even run trials of some of the new testing modalities onsite.

    I had (stupidly) assumed that all sorts of stuff like this would have been done over the summer when our laboratories were relatively unstressed.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,096
    What is it about human nature that when some people see a rule they have to push it to the limit and beyond, could they not see that by not sticking to the rules they risked losing the very freedoms they were abusing, everybody seemed desperate to find loopholes to fit their needs and the end result will be far more restrictions than were initially proposed. Are people I’ll informed, not terribly bright or just anarchists by nature?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 37,638
    FPT - Scotland in Union weren't trying exclusively to test opinion on the referendum question: they were testing the salience of some of their campaigning hypotheses.

    That's what makes it interesting.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 1,540
    nichomar said:

    What is it about human nature that when some people see a rule they have to push it to the limit and beyond, could they not see that by not sticking to the rules they risked losing the very freedoms they were abusing, everybody seemed desperate to find loopholes to fit their needs and the end result will be far more restrictions than were initially proposed. Are people I’ll informed, not terribly bright or just anarchists by nature?

    Maybe we just see our government as clueless cretins who don't have a clue when stupid people tell me to jump of a cliff I say "hell no" how about you?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 17,396
    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    Honestly if we have a second national lockdown the key decision in this was appointing Harding to run the testing system. She's wholly unequipped and has fallen short and now we're all going to pay the price. By now we should have double the testing capacity and 1m per day by the end of November. The government needs to sack Harding and get a data modelling specialist to take over and logistics specialist to run the logistics.

    Im no fan of Harding or the government but realistically similar is happening in many countries she has nothing to do with. Replace her with someone competent please but I doubt if someone else was doing her job we would be able to avoid a second lockdown.
    I wish it was as simple as firing Harding, or replacing Johnson, but I honestly blame the public most fo all. There are simply way too many people who since the beginning of July, and to an extent before then, who are not complying with the generally simple and reasonable measures that are required of us.
    I cannot blame the public. Restrictions were eased far too fast. Every impression was given, especially by Boris, that it was all returning to normal.

    The one thing that Sweden has unequivocally got right is the mindset that the restrictions they have put in place are for the long haul. The British and Scottish governments have bithbelseemingly been petrified of coming out and plainly stating the restrictions were going to be in place for a time frame measurable in months and years rather than their pretence that it would be for weeks.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,776
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    Honestly if we have a second national lockdown the key decision in this was appointing Harding to run the testing system. She's wholly unequipped and has fallen short and now we're all going to pay the price. By now we should have double the testing capacity and 1m per day by the end of November. The government needs to sack Harding and get a data modelling specialist to take over and logistics specialist to run the logistics.

    Im no fan of Harding or the government but realistically similar is happening in many countries she has nothing to do with. Replace her with someone competent please but I doubt if someone else was doing her job we would be able to avoid a second lockdown.
    I wish it was as simple as firing Harding, or replacing Johnson, but I honestly blame the public most fo all. There are simply way too many people who since the beginning of July, and to an extent before then, who are not complying with the generally simple and reasonable measures that are required of us.
    That's not entirely true, we're importing thousands of cases per week from red list countries outside of Europe. A new PM may actually step up and tell the travel industry the new normal is Europe only until there's a reliable vaccine. We need to close the nation to arrivals from everywhere outside of Europe and have very, very tough quarantine measures for arrivals from Europe. I'm talking ankle tag tracking and £10k fines for breaking it. Over time we can figure out a testing system that works for incoming arrivals from outside of Europe but for now this is a huge source of new cases that we don't have any need to take in.
    I would suggest that we do exactly what the Chinese do, and for people (yes, including Brits) arriving from higher risk areas have the staying at airport hotels and being checked every 48 hours. It seems madness to allow me to fly in from the US and then jump on the Heathrow Express or the tube or in a taxi, without any kind of testing at all.
    Particularly as airport hotels must have mainly vacant rooms.
    You could even run trials of some of the new testing modalities onsite.

    I had (stupidly) assumed that all sorts of stuff like this would have been done over the summer when our laboratories were relatively unstressed.
    That time was profitably spent coming up with stunts to pick fights with the EU.
    The empty airport hotels have been discussed on here for at least 4 months.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,776
    nichomar said:

    What is it about human nature that when some people see a rule they have to push it to the limit and beyond, could they not see that by not sticking to the rules they risked losing the very freedoms they were abusing, everybody seemed desperate to find loopholes to fit their needs and the end result will be far more restrictions than were initially proposed. Are people I’ll informed, not terribly bright or just anarchists by nature?

    That attitude comes from the very top. Nudge theory in action.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,096
    Pagan2 said:

    nichomar said:

    What is it about human nature that when some people see a rule they have to push it to the limit and beyond, could they not see that by not sticking to the rules they risked losing the very freedoms they were abusing, everybody seemed desperate to find loopholes to fit their needs and the end result will be far more restrictions than were initially proposed. Are people I’ll informed, not terribly bright or just anarchists by nature?

    Maybe we just see our government as clueless cretins who don't have a clue when stupid people tell me to jump of a cliff I say "hell no" how about you?
    But they weren’t told to jump off a cliff they were told to socially distance etc none of which was overbearing but no they had to congregate in large numbers in the street, ignore mask wearing and behave as if there wasn’t a problem.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 25,915
    When do we get the next Texas poll ?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 10,706
    edited September 18
    @nichomar there’s no requirement for shop workers, waiting staff, etc to wear masks in the England. In fact in my experience restaurant workers are by and large universally not wearing them.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 25,915
    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    Honestly if we have a second national lockdown the key decision in this was appointing Harding to run the testing system. She's wholly unequipped and has fallen short and now we're all going to pay the price. By now we should have double the testing capacity and 1m per day by the end of November. The government needs to sack Harding and get a data modelling specialist to take over and logistics specialist to run the logistics.

    Im no fan of Harding or the government but realistically similar is happening in many countries she has nothing to do with. Replace her with someone competent please but I doubt if someone else was doing her job we would be able to avoid a second lockdown.
    I wish it was as simple as firing Harding, or replacing Johnson, but I honestly blame the public most fo all. There are simply way too many people who since the beginning of July, and to an extent before then, who are not complying with the generally simple and reasonable measures that are required of us.
    That's not entirely true, we're importing thousands of cases per week from red list countries outside of Europe. A new PM may actually step up and tell the travel industry the new normal is Europe only until there's a reliable vaccine. We need to close the nation to arrivals from everywhere outside of Europe and have very, very tough quarantine measures for arrivals from Europe. I'm talking ankle tag tracking and £10k fines for breaking it. Over time we can figure out a testing system that works for incoming arrivals from outside of Europe but for now this is a huge source of new cases that we don't have any need to take in.
    I would suggest that we do exactly what the Chinese do, and for people (yes, including Brits) arriving from higher risk areas have the staying at airport hotels and being checked every 48 hours. It seems madness to allow me to fly in from the US and then jump on the Heathrow Express or the tube or in a taxi, without any kind of testing at all.
    Particularly as airport hotels must have mainly vacant rooms.
    You could even run trials of some of the new testing modalities onsite.

    I had (stupidly) assumed that all sorts of stuff like this would have been done over the summer when our laboratories were relatively unstressed.
    That time was profitably spent coming up with stunts to pick fights with the EU.
    The empty airport hotels have been discussed on here for at least 4 months.
    I know.
    As with many good ideas.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,096

    @nichomar there’s no requirement for shop workers, waiting staff, etc to wear masks in the England. In fact in my experience restaurant workers are by and large universally not wearing them.

    I know, was amazed they don’t have to and don’t wear them voluntarily, it actually makes mask wearing by customers far less effective.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,244
    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    Honestly if we have a second national lockdown the key decision in this was appointing Harding to run the testing system. She's wholly unequipped and has fallen short and now we're all going to pay the price. By now we should have double the testing capacity and 1m per day by the end of November. The government needs to sack Harding and get a data modelling specialist to take over and logistics specialist to run the logistics.

    While I don't think it quite as simple as that, there's little doubt that we've squandered the last two or three months in preparing for what's happening. And it's the major factor in losing control of the infection again.
    Deciding completely to reorganise PHE at the same time was a predictable distraction (whatever the failings of that organisation).

    Quibbles aside, I agree with you.

    Regarding rapid testing, something like this would be a solution for replacing PCR (it is, of course, a novel technology, and not yet available for immediate rollout) - it's pretty well as accurate, and massively simpler.

    Sensitive fluorescence detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in clinical samples via one-pot isothermal ligation and transcription
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41551-020-00617-5
    ...Here, we report a highly sensitive and specific one-pot assay for the fluorescence-based detection of RNA from pathogens. The assay, which can be performed within 30–50 min of incubation time and can reach a limit of detection of 0.1-attomolar RNA concentration, relies on a sustained isothermal reaction cascade producing an RNA aptamer that binds to a fluorogenic dye. The RNA aptamer is transcribed by the T7 RNA polymerase from the ligation product of a promoter DNA probe and a reporter DNA probe that hybridize with the target single-stranded RNA sequence via the SplintR ligase (a Chlorella virus DNA ligase). In 40 nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 samples, the assay reached positive and negative predictive values of 95 and 100%, respectively...

    Pooled testing, of course, has been a realistic solution for months now, and would have been particularly useful on easily defined groups (school or university classes; incoming flights etc.).
    Yes I'm definitely over simplifying it, but essentially I think that decision to put Harding in charge is going to lead to a second national lockdown. The problem is that she just doesn't seem to understand anything about the subject. I'm sure she can regurgitate the brief on demand for select committees but as you said yesterday, I'd like her to explain in detail the pros and cons of pooled testing, situations where it would be useful and where it shouldn't be used. I have little doubt she would be able to regurgitate the notes but wouldn't be able to define the situations at all because of a lack of understanding.

    The same is true for data modelling. A good model would have predicted roughly where the hotspots were going to pop up and prepared testing centres nearby and added capacity to temporary local processing while the lighthouses were ramped up. Again, it's a lack of understanding that is holding us back here as a nation. Someone who understands it would have looked at the idiotic sage briefing on demand not increasing very much and told them to go back to the drawing board. She doesn't understand it so just blithely accepted it. As I said yesterday, politicians have some excuse in that they aren't expected to know these things, but she's in charge of a public health body in the middle of a pandemic, a deep understanding of data modelling is a bare minimum expectation. A second in command who has extensive logistics experience and short term deployment of limited resources (someone from the army, probably) should be a necessity too at least until the pandemic has passed.

    We've been badly let down by the government and all of us are going to pay for it in the next few years.

    As to the test type, it looks very interesting, but ultimately it's not going to be ready so we just need to ramp up PCR testing until such time it can be replaced with something else.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 1,540
    nichomar said:

    Pagan2 said:

    nichomar said:

    What is it about human nature that when some people see a rule they have to push it to the limit and beyond, could they not see that by not sticking to the rules they risked losing the very freedoms they were abusing, everybody seemed desperate to find loopholes to fit their needs and the end result will be far more restrictions than were initially proposed. Are people I’ll informed, not terribly bright or just anarchists by nature?

    Maybe we just see our government as clueless cretins who don't have a clue when stupid people tell me to jump of a cliff I say "hell no" how about you?
    But they weren’t told to jump off a cliff they were told to socially distance etc none of which was overbearing but no they had to congregate in large numbers in the street, ignore mask wearing and behave as if there wasn’t a problem.
    No
    they were told to go on foreign holidays
    they were told to return to the office even if they could work from home
    they were told to go out to pubs
    they were told to go out to restaurants

    I socially distance perfectly well, I do none of those things, now I have restrictions put on me so people can make money from people doing those things....they can bugger off
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 4,505

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    BIden up to 78% chance on 538 as well.

    If it was 'Horse 2' then you'd be all over BF.

    'Biden' not so much. I just see him as a puppet man. He's not pulling his own strings.
    So who IS pulling Uncle Joe's strings? The Jesuit-Masonic conspiracy? The Tri-lateral Commission? NPR & PBS? OR the Tooth Fairy?

    Enquiring minds want to know!
    Oh no idea. Almost certainly younger Biden-like figures. I'm reasonably he's representing his own views, but that representation isn't his own.
    So far 2020 has proved to be a year where underestimating Joe Biden is a popular activity, but NOT productive OR profitable.
    Yes. I'm hugely all red because of underestimating Biden (but mainly having a flyer on Gabbard). I did underestimate him for a reason though.

    Your's truly also underestimated Uncle Joe early this year (but am too chicken to put cash on the barrel head!)

    As for Tulsi, think she was worth a bit of a fling. She reminds me of a woman or two I dated way back when: extremely attractive in many ways BUT when you actually go on your dream date, turns out she's more than a wee bit crazy.

    Then if you have any sense, you flee for the hills!
    Well "She reminds me of a woman or two I dated way back when", hats off.

    I liked her as a possible Presidential candidate because she would so clearly have broken the mold. My feeling was that doing so was Trump's trick, and that a winning Democrat candidate would have to do much the same.

    Nonetheless it's certainly Joe, and I really can't see it. (I'll lose whatever happens - have no great swing)
  • FPT - Scotland in Union weren't trying exclusively to test opinion on the referendum question: they were testing the salience of some of their campaigning hypotheses.

    That's what makes it interesting.

    Scotland in union are a total and utter irrelevance and their voodoo poll tells us the square root of nothing
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 5,714
    From the Beeb - how the imminent second national lockdown will be (as widely predicted) dressed up as not national and not a lockdown really:

    A new “three tier” approach to coronavirus restrictions has been discussed by Health Secretary Matt Hancock and government officials, the BBC understands.

    The system would involve three tiers - the first of which is the level of measures in most places across England now, with social distancing the primary key aspect.

    The second tier would involve what is currently imposed in the North East of England - curfews on hospitality venues and a ban on meeting with other households.

    The final third tier would involve stricter lockdown measures.

    It’s thought it is likely “tier two” may be put in place across the UK - albeit framed in a region-by-region basis rather than as a “national curfew".

    The system was discussed at a meeting chaired by the health secretary, and attended by England’s Chief Medical Officer Prof Chris Whitty, his two deputy chief medical officers, the head of the Test and Trace programme, Dido Harding, and local public health officials.


    "Tier three" presumably comes about five minutes, and a considerable amount of further panic, after the implementation of "tier two."
  • So with "lockdown harder" incoming, when should we expect "lockdown with a vengeance", complete with Boris wandering the streets of Tower Hamlets wearing a sandwich containing a racist message?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 10,706
    nichomar said:

    @nichomar there’s no requirement for shop workers, waiting staff, etc to wear masks in the England. In fact in my experience restaurant workers are by and large universally not wearing them.

    I know, was amazed they don’t have to and don’t wear them voluntarily, it actually makes mask wearing by customers far less effective.
    Yeah I don’t understand it either. Being a waiter in a restaurant seems to be such a high risks activity as customers wont be wearing their masks whilst sitting at tables.
  • Alistair said:

    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    Honestly if we have a second national lockdown the key decision in this was appointing Harding to run the testing system. She's wholly unequipped and has fallen short and now we're all going to pay the price. By now we should have double the testing capacity and 1m per day by the end of November. The government needs to sack Harding and get a data modelling specialist to take over and logistics specialist to run the logistics.

    Im no fan of Harding or the government but realistically similar is happening in many countries she has nothing to do with. Replace her with someone competent please but I doubt if someone else was doing her job we would be able to avoid a second lockdown.
    I wish it was as simple as firing Harding, or replacing Johnson, but I honestly blame the public most fo all. There are simply way too many people who since the beginning of July, and to an extent before then, who are not complying with the generally simple and reasonable measures that are required of us.
    I cannot blame the public. Restrictions were eased far too fast. Every impression was given, especially by Boris, that it was all returning to normal.

    The one thing that Sweden has unequivocally got right is the mindset that the restrictions they have put in place are for the long haul. The British and Scottish governments have bithbelseemingly been petrified of coming out and plainly stating the restrictions were going to be in place for a time frame measurable in months and years rather than their pretence that it would be for weeks.
    Have to say the inference I took from Scottish government position was that it was going to be a long haul.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 36,727
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    Honestly if we have a second national lockdown the key decision in this was appointing Harding to run the testing system. She's wholly unequipped and has fallen short and now we're all going to pay the price. By now we should have double the testing capacity and 1m per day by the end of November. The government needs to sack Harding and get a data modelling specialist to take over and logistics specialist to run the logistics.

    While I don't think it quite as simple as that, there's little doubt that we've squandered the last two or three months in preparing for what's happening. And it's the major factor in losing control of the infection again.
    Deciding completely to reorganise PHE at the same time was a predictable distraction (whatever the failings of that organisation).

    Quibbles aside, I agree with you.

    Regarding rapid testing, something like this would be a solution for replacing PCR (it is, of course, a novel technology, and not yet available for immediate rollout) - it's pretty well as accurate, and massively simpler.

    Sensitive fluorescence detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in clinical samples via one-pot isothermal ligation and transcription
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41551-020-00617-5
    ...Here, we report a highly sensitive and specific one-pot assay for the fluorescence-based detection of RNA from pathogens. The assay, which can be performed within 30–50 min of incubation time and can reach a limit of detection of 0.1-attomolar RNA concentration, relies on a sustained isothermal reaction cascade producing an RNA aptamer that binds to a fluorogenic dye. The RNA aptamer is transcribed by the T7 RNA polymerase from the ligation product of a promoter DNA probe and a reporter DNA probe that hybridize with the target single-stranded RNA sequence via the SplintR ligase (a Chlorella virus DNA ligase). In 40 nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 samples, the assay reached positive and negative predictive values of 95 and 100%, respectively...

    Pooled testing, of course, has been a realistic solution for months now, and would have been particularly useful on easily defined groups (school or university classes; incoming flights etc.).
    Yes I'm definitely over simplifying it, but essentially I think that decision to put Harding in charge is going to lead to a second national lockdown. The problem is that she just doesn't seem to understand anything about the subject. I'm sure she can regurgitate the brief on demand for select committees but as you said yesterday, I'd like her to explain in detail the pros and cons of pooled testing, situations where it would be useful and where it shouldn't be used. I have little doubt she would be able to regurgitate the notes but wouldn't be able to define the situations at all because of a lack of understanding.

    The same is true for data modelling. A good model would have predicted roughly where the hotspots were going to pop up and prepared testing centres nearby and added capacity to temporary local processing while the lighthouses were ramped up. Again, it's a lack of understanding that is holding us back here as a nation. Someone who understands it would have looked at the idiotic sage briefing on demand not increasing very much and told them to go back to the drawing board. She doesn't understand it so just blithely accepted it. As I said yesterday, politicians have some excuse in that they aren't expected to know these things, but she's in charge of a public health body in the middle of a pandemic, a deep understanding of data modelling is a bare minimum expectation. A second in command who has extensive logistics experience and short term deployment of limited resources (someone from the army, probably) should be a necessity too at least until the pandemic has passed.

    We've been badly let down by the government and all of us are going to pay for it in the next few years.

    As to the test type, it looks very interesting, but ultimately it's not going to be ready so we just need to ramp up PCR testing until such time it can be replaced with something else.
    "Someone who understands it would have looked at the idiotic sage briefing on demand not increasing very much and told them to go back to the drawing board."

    As I said yesterday, anyone with a modicum of common sense would have queried the model.
  • glwglw Posts: 6,699
    Alistair said:

    I cannot blame the public. Restrictions were eased far too fast. Every impression was given, especially by Boris, that it was all returning to normal.

    The one thing that Sweden has unequivocally got right is the mindset that the restrictions they have put in place are for the long haul. The British and Scottish governments have bithbelseemingly been petrified of coming out and plainly stating the restrictions were going to be in place for a time frame measurable in months and years rather than their pretence that it would be for weeks.

    I still blame the public, because there is a moral obligation to follow the rules and laws, but I do think you have a point about how the restrictions were framed. Most of the talk has been about temporary measures, easing restrictions, and opening up. Not enough has been said about the necessity of maintaining some of the measures until there is a vaccine or effective treatment, and particulary emphasising that it could be several years until that occurs. Of course a whole load of dopes took the end of lockdown to be the end of the whole problem.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 14,967
    edited September 18
    Trump is still too short. Only thing stopping me doing even more on betfair or the spreads is lack of bottle.
  • glwglw Posts: 6,699
    dixiedean said:

    nichomar said:

    What is it about human nature that when some people see a rule they have to push it to the limit and beyond, could they not see that by not sticking to the rules they risked losing the very freedoms they were abusing, everybody seemed desperate to find loopholes to fit their needs and the end result will be far more restrictions than were initially proposed. Are people I’ll informed, not terribly bright or just anarchists by nature?

    That attitude comes from the very top. Nudge theory in action.
    We'd be doing a lot better I think if Boris had kicked the bucket. Mind you I also believe that COVID-19 isn't quite deadly enough to really frighten the public into taking it very seriously.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 1,994
    edited September 18
    HYUFD said:
    One factor for all the states above (and also Iowa & Minnesota) is decision by Big Ten collegiate athletic conference to start playing football (and some other sports of lesser public interest) this Fall, thus reversing previous call to NOT to play the 2020 season.

    HUGE deal esp. in Ohio and Michigan, where among other gridiron contests the annual Michigan v. Ohio State game pitting Wolverines of MU against Buckeyes of OSU is a REALLY big deal. So much so, that many citizens of both states could NOT tell you the name of their congressman, or even their governor - but would instantly recognize the names of the two most iconic coaches Woody Hayes of Ohio State (1951-78) and: Bo Schembechler of Michigan (1969-89).

    Fast-forwarding back to 2020, think Big Ten's reversal and decision to slap the pigskin around is going to give Trumpksy a small bit of lift among hard-core football fans. Most of whom (the White ones anyway) were likely Trumpsky voters BUT some have blamed our Fearless Leader for the situation (wonder why?) which is why he's been rabid (as per usual) urging the Big Ten to blow the whistle and play (foot)ball.

    Again, impact is most significant in Ohio and Michigan. My guess helps Trumpsky hold Buckeye State but NOT enough to beat Biden in Wolverine State.
  • So with "lockdown harder" incoming, when should we expect "lockdown with a vengeance", complete with Boris wandering the streets of Tower Hamlets wearing a sandwich containing a racist message?

    Can we pretend lock down harder 4 and 5 never happened?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 4,505

    Alistair said:

    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    Honestly if we have a second national lockdown the key decision in this was appointing Harding to run the testing system. She's wholly unequipped and has fallen short and now we're all going to pay the price. By now we should have double the testing capacity and 1m per day by the end of November. The government needs to sack Harding and get a data modelling specialist to take over and logistics specialist to run the logistics.

    Im no fan of Harding or the government but realistically similar is happening in many countries she has nothing to do with. Replace her with someone competent please but I doubt if someone else was doing her job we would be able to avoid a second lockdown.
    I wish it was as simple as firing Harding, or replacing Johnson, but I honestly blame the public most fo all. There are simply way too many people who since the beginning of July, and to an extent before then, who are not complying with the generally simple and reasonable measures that are required of us.
    I cannot blame the public. Restrictions were eased far too fast. Every impression was given, especially by Boris, that it was all returning to normal.

    The one thing that Sweden has unequivocally got right is the mindset that the restrictions they have put in place are for the long haul. The British and Scottish governments have bithbelseemingly been petrified of coming out and plainly stating the restrictions were going to be in place for a time frame measurable in months and years rather than their pretence that it would be for weeks.
    Have to say the inference I took from Scottish government position was that it was going to be a long haul.
    When (and I think it is when rather than if) Scottish Independence arrives there will be a few SNP MP's and MSP's that will regret it.

    Sort of weird that the SNP is basically on a suicide mission. I presume you'll found the Scottish Whigs on day one post your elegant decline from the system?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 7,479
    Evening all :)

    More American polls to digest this evening.

    NPR/PBS/Marist have Biden leading 52-43 in a straight match with Trump but include other candidates and it becomes a 49-41 lead (not as reported on RCP).

    http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_202009171415.pdf

    A poll sample of 964 registered voters with a 3.8% Margin of Error.

    Independents split 50-33 to Biden - among White voters it's tied at 46 and while Trump leads 46-41 in the South, he's well behind elsewhere.

    The NY Times/Siena polls show a continuing dead heat in North Carolina but Biden is up 49-40 in Arizona and 17 up in Maine but CD2 remains very tight with Biden up two compared with a nine point in a Quinnipiac poll on Wednesday.

    Finally, an EPIC/MRA poll puts Biden up 48-40 in Michigan.

    https://www.woodtv.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/51/2020/09/September-Statewide-EPIC-MRA-poll-091820.pdf

    A sample of 600 and an MoE of 4%. Interesting in that among Trump supporters, three quarters are voting FOR Biden and only a fifth AGAINST Biden while among Biden supporters less than half (46%) are voting FOR Biden and 40% AGAINST Trump.

    On that, you'd reckon Michigan a Republican state were it not for Trump. The incumbent Democrat Seantor leads his Republican challenger 45-41. Only a single Trafalgar poll in mid August put the Republican up a point.

    RCP call it a toss-up in their Senate projections which currently have 47 for the GOP and 46 for the Dems and 7 Toss-Ups of which six are held by Republicans.

    This is very close - I think the Democrats could win four of the seven which would give them 50 while the Republicans look to win two leaving them on 49 and Iowa on a knife edge.

  • TresTres Posts: 171
    Exciting news everyone. Gone with the Wind is on TCM as I write!!!!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,990
    edited September 18
    Summary of latest fiverthirtyeight and Economist ECV probabilities (downloaded a few minutes ago):

    538 Economist
    -------------------------------------------

    Probability of Biden win 77% 86%
    Probability of Trump win 23% 14%

    Median of probability distribution
    (i.e. 50% of the distribution is above/below this value):
    Biden ECVs: 333 335
    Trump ECVs: 205 203

    Expected value of probability distribution
    (i.e. fair value for spread bets):
    Biden ECVs: 331 331
    Trump ECVs: 207 207

    Probability by Ladbrokes band
    Biden 400+ 24% 9%
    Biden 350-399 19% 33%
    Biden 300-349 21% 32%
    Biden 270-299 13% 12%
    Trump 270-299 9% 7%
    Trump 300-349 11% 6%
    Trump 350-399 3% 0%
    Trump 400+ 0% 0%
    They are very close now in their central forecasts, but 538 still has a wider tail to its distribution.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 2,498
    Tres said:

    Exciting news everyone. Gone with the Wind is on TCM as I write!!!!

    Turner Cancelled Movies? :wink:
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 223
    Pulpstar said:
    How would Warren and Sanders be polling in those states ? Biden is an underwhelming nominee , gaffe prone but could be in the right place at the right time and importantly has improved on Clinton’s numbers with white voters.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,638

    So with "lockdown harder" incoming, when should we expect "lockdown with a vengeance", complete with Boris wandering the streets of Tower Hamlets wearing a sandwich containing a racist message?

    Is Lockdown a Christmas movie?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 1,015
    The testing system is just a distraction from the reality, which is that in many circumstances you were infectious before you had the symptoms and thus before you got the test at which point it's effectively too late, you missed the window to stop it moving on and even if you retrospectively try and get most of the people who you were in contact with you're still already behind the 8-ball in terms of the transmission of the virus as those other people have already been in contact with more people. There's a very narrow window in which the "whack-a-mole" analogy actually works in reality and trying to stay within that window was never going to happen.

    And in many other cases you were entirely asymptomatic so you already passed it on without potentially even knowing.

    The truth is that running about telling people to wash their hands a bit more and put a little bit more distance and wear some flimsy face coverings are not bad things to suggest but they are not remotely magic bullets. They are firing paperclips at a fighter jet. They are a panacea designed to look like concrete remedial action. I am convinced they are all only rounding errors on the "natural" R number of the virus.

    The only thing that has been demonstrably effective is full lockdown, with everything shut, for an extended period. Anything less than that isn't enough and anything that is insufficiently effective to get the R < 1 is almost not worth it, because then you are massively harming your economy without getting the virus to stop growing exponentially anyway which only pushes the problem back a few more weeks, when you need to have a bigger lockdown anyway.

    My gut feeling is that balanced across case numbers and the economy, the better idea would have been 3-4 months ago to plan for a scheduled longer second national lockdown with much more normality than what we had in between - go big and binary on it rather than the continual half-and-half wishy-washy compromise which only simultaneously suppresses your economy but also isn't enough to stop case numbers growing quickly.

    If you're going to do massive harm to the economy then you simply must get the cases squashed to mean it was worthwhile. I think the danger now is that there won't be the same level of support (e.g. furlough etc.) in the instance of a second lockdown, it will be shorter and not necessarily so uniformly applied and not so wide-reaching, so subsequent lockdowns will suffer from diminishing returns - increasingly ineffective at reducing cases but all the while still being as economically damaging, if not more so, than first time round.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 6,933
    edited September 18

    Alistair said:

    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    Honestly if we have a second national lockdown the key decision in this was appointing Harding to run the testing system. She's wholly unequipped and has fallen short and now we're all going to pay the price. By now we should have double the testing capacity and 1m per day by the end of November. The government needs to sack Harding and get a data modelling specialist to take over and logistics specialist to run the logistics.

    Im no fan of Harding or the government but realistically similar is happening in many countries she has nothing to do with. Replace her with someone competent please but I doubt if someone else was doing her job we would be able to avoid a second lockdown.
    I wish it was as simple as firing Harding, or replacing Johnson, but I honestly blame the public most fo all. There are simply way too many people who since the beginning of July, and to an extent before then, who are not complying with the generally simple and reasonable measures that are required of us.
    I cannot blame the public. Restrictions were eased far too fast. Every impression was given, especially by Boris, that it was all returning to normal.

    The one thing that Sweden has unequivocally got right is the mindset that the restrictions they have put in place are for the long haul. The British and Scottish governments have bithbelseemingly been petrified of coming out and plainly stating the restrictions were going to be in place for a time frame measurable in months and years rather than their pretence that it would be for weeks.
    Have to say the inference I took from Scottish government position was that it was going to be a long haul.
    The tone of the briefings from Mr Johnson and Ms Sturgeon has been very different, usually. Where one is falling over himself [edit] for instance to extol the new freedoms to get pished in public the other has tended to make it clear how reluctant she is to loosen up given the concerns in question. The new restrictions will be much less of a shock in her jurisdiction, that is for sure.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,244

    So with "lockdown harder" incoming, when should we expect "lockdown with a vengeance", complete with Boris wandering the streets of Tower Hamlets wearing a sandwich containing a racist message?

    Is Lockdown a Christmas movie?
    No one can say, Christmas is cancelled.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,431
    Govt continuing its trail of unforced blunders and incompetence.

    Bizarre to me that there is private testing capacity available. If there is a national emergency on, shouldn't we be buying/nationalizing that?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,006
    nichomar said:

    Mask wearing reality
    Unless your job mandates wearing a mask the reality is you spend very little time in one, today I’ve had to wear mine on four occasions for a total of 15 mins. The longest mask wearing day is hospital treatment day which will be seven hours continuous with about 15 mins outside of that. I’m surprised anyone would go on public transport without one, I have some sympathy for bar and shop workers who have to wear them throughout their shift but given the range of people the encounter it makes perfect sense. I really don’t understand what circumstances wearing a mask is an imposition and an infringement of liberties.

    You are banging your head against a brick wall Nichomar. I don't come on here much these days as I really cannot stomach the non-stop stream of drivel and misinformation from the likes of Nerys.

    Instead I have decided to sit back and watch with growing amusement as this "Government of all the Brexit Talents" lurches from one cock up to the next. As entertaining as it was predicable.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,244
    rkrkrk said:

    Govt continuing its trail of unforced blunders and incompetence.

    Bizarre to me that there is private testing capacity available. If there is a national emergency on, shouldn't we be buying/nationalizing that?

    Most of it is keeping sports going and testing various entry methods at Heathrow.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 17,396

    Alistair said:

    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    Honestly if we have a second national lockdown the key decision in this was appointing Harding to run the testing system. She's wholly unequipped and has fallen short and now we're all going to pay the price. By now we should have double the testing capacity and 1m per day by the end of November. The government needs to sack Harding and get a data modelling specialist to take over and logistics specialist to run the logistics.

    Im no fan of Harding or the government but realistically similar is happening in many countries she has nothing to do with. Replace her with someone competent please but I doubt if someone else was doing her job we would be able to avoid a second lockdown.
    I wish it was as simple as firing Harding, or replacing Johnson, but I honestly blame the public most fo all. There are simply way too many people who since the beginning of July, and to an extent before then, who are not complying with the generally simple and reasonable measures that are required of us.
    I cannot blame the public. Restrictions were eased far too fast. Every impression was given, especially by Boris, that it was all returning to normal.

    The one thing that Sweden has unequivocally got right is the mindset that the restrictions they have put in place are for the long haul. The British and Scottish governments have bithbelseemingly been petrified of coming out and plainly stating the restrictions were going to be in place for a time frame measurable in months and years rather than their pretence that it would be for weeks.
    Have to say the inference I took from Scottish government position was that it was going to be a long haul.
    To begin with I think the Scottish Gov's messaging on this was better but when they started opening up it was far too positive. The suprise release of shielding restrictions ahead of schedule was a big signal that it was "all over".
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,096
    OllyT said:

    nichomar said:

    Mask wearing reality
    Unless your job mandates wearing a mask the reality is you spend very little time in one, today I’ve had to wear mine on four occasions for a total of 15 mins. The longest mask wearing day is hospital treatment day which will be seven hours continuous with about 15 mins outside of that. I’m surprised anyone would go on public transport without one, I have some sympathy for bar and shop workers who have to wear them throughout their shift but given the range of people the encounter it makes perfect sense. I really don’t understand what circumstances wearing a mask is an imposition and an infringement of liberties.

    You are banging your head against a brick wall Nichomar. I don't come on here much these days as I really cannot stomach the non-stop stream of drivel and misinformation from the likes of Nerys.

    Instead I have decided to sit back and watch with growing amusement as this "Government of all the Brexit Talents" lurches from one cock up to the next. As entertaining as it was predicable.
    It’s my nightly dose of masochism!
  • nico679 said:

    Pulpstar said:
    How would Warren and Sanders be polling in those states ? Biden is an underwhelming nominee , gaffe prone but could be in the right place at the right time and importantly has improved on Clinton’s numbers with white voters.
    Unless the cross-tables reveal some bad assumptions, these are devastating numbers for Trump. Don't have time to look at them tonite. Will be interested in what other PBers make of them.

    Is it these polls that Betfair has reacted to? It's not a massive move, but much more than e've seen for some time.
  • glwglw Posts: 6,699

    The truth is that running about telling people to wash their hands a bit more and put a little bit more distance and wear some flimsy face coverings are not bad things to suggest but they are not remotely magic bullets. They are firing paperclips at a fighter jet. They are a panacea designed to look like concrete remedial action. I am convinced they are all only rounding errors on the "natural" R number of the virus.

    Even small reductions in transmission add up over the course of a pandemic. You might not stop it occuring, but it might be the difference between 50,000 or a 100,000 more deaths by next spring.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 42,596

    Alistair said:

    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    Honestly if we have a second national lockdown the key decision in this was appointing Harding to run the testing system. She's wholly unequipped and has fallen short and now we're all going to pay the price. By now we should have double the testing capacity and 1m per day by the end of November. The government needs to sack Harding and get a data modelling specialist to take over and logistics specialist to run the logistics.

    Im no fan of Harding or the government but realistically similar is happening in many countries she has nothing to do with. Replace her with someone competent please but I doubt if someone else was doing her job we would be able to avoid a second lockdown.
    I wish it was as simple as firing Harding, or replacing Johnson, but I honestly blame the public most fo all. There are simply way too many people who since the beginning of July, and to an extent before then, who are not complying with the generally simple and reasonable measures that are required of us.
    I cannot blame the public. Restrictions were eased far too fast. Every impression was given, especially by Boris, that it was all returning to normal.

    The one thing that Sweden has unequivocally got right is the mindset that the restrictions they have put in place are for the long haul. The British and Scottish governments have bithbelseemingly been petrified of coming out and plainly stating the restrictions were going to be in place for a time frame measurable in months and years rather than their pretence that it would be for weeks.
    Have to say the inference I took from Scottish government position was that it was going to be a long haul.
    The Guernsey CMO said in an unguarded moment that we could be living with COVID for "decades".

    On "Circuit Breaker" the first usage of it was AFAIK in Singapore - what they did we'd call "lock down":

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Singapore_circuit_breaker_measures
  • spire2spire2 Posts: 183
    Any odds on first conservative MP/ special advisor filmed ignoring new regulations?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 5,714

    nichomar said:

    @nichomar there’s no requirement for shop workers, waiting staff, etc to wear masks in the England. In fact in my experience restaurant workers are by and large universally not wearing them.

    I know, was amazed they don’t have to and don’t wear them voluntarily, it actually makes mask wearing by customers far less effective.
    Yeah I don’t understand it either. Being a waiter in a restaurant seems to be such a high risks activity as customers wont be wearing their masks whilst sitting at tables.
    People who wait tables in restaurants are by and large youngsters who are unlikely to suffer badly even if they catch the disease - the likelihood of which is low in the first instance, since they're not taking part in prolonged social interaction with their clientele. They're stood over them for thirty seconds or a minute at a time whilst they take orders, distribute and collect plates.

    I would also venture to suggest that you do not work in an occupation where you are made to spend eight hours a day, five days a week in one of these gags. It's all very well declaring that these impositions are something that other people should suffer for long periods every day for their own good when you only have to put up with one for twenty minutes twice a week to do the shopping.

    FWIW, mask adoption by staff in hospitality venues does indeed seem variable. I've been to three since they re-opened - one without masks, another that definitely had masks or visors everywhere, and a third where I think they may have been using visors, but I'm so used to seeing them by now that I don't quite recall. However, I expect these differences in approach will soon be ironed out when a blanket order enforcing masks in workplaces comes into effect. It's surely only a matter of time?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 17,396

    nico679 said:

    Pulpstar said:
    How would Warren and Sanders be polling in those states ? Biden is an underwhelming nominee , gaffe prone but could be in the right place at the right time and importantly has improved on Clinton’s numbers with white voters.
    Unless the cross-tables reveal some bad assumptions, these are devastating numbers for Trump. Don't have time to look at them tonite. Will be interested in what other PBers make of them.

    Is it these polls that Betfair has reacted to? It's not a massive move, but much more than e've seen for some time.
    Civiqs have a pretty big Dem lean IIRC.
  • So with "lockdown harder" incoming, when should we expect "lockdown with a vengeance", complete with Boris wandering the streets of Tower Hamlets wearing a sandwich containing a racist message?

    Is Lockdown a Christmas movie?
    Of course....
  • Talking of masks in restaurants, I went to quite a swanky restaurant in London this week. The staff were wearing rather fancy perspex masks, but they weren't just the single-sheet visor type you see quite often (which I imagine are very ineffective), they had an inner part and filter.

    It was rather funny when, as we were leaving, the waiter tried to blow out a candle with his mask on. He was rather puzzled that nothing seemed to happen.
This discussion has been closed.