Right of centre press noticeably backing away from Johnson in last day or two. 1922 will be dusting down their procedures shortly at this rate.
Something surely has to give.
If Boris gets replaced, it'll be by a Tory MP who will have promised the party two things: (1) diamond-hard WTO Brexit; (2) no more restrictions whatsoever on business or the public to control the virus - pure herd immunity until a vaccine arrives.
Some people may be delighted with both of those things, but be certain that is what you're wishing for, because you're going to get them.
FFS. I have lost track but I reckon it is less than a week old.
It's a total non-surprise. Like I said earlier this evening, the Government is in a complete state of panic. This ridiculous "two week circuit breaker" rubbish that's being prattled on about for October half-term could very easily turn into a full-scale, April-style lockdown that drags on for six months.
Johnson, and by extension his administration, is knackered, irrationally terrified, hopelessly incompetent and totally capricious. You don't know what they're going to come out with from one week, day or hour to the next.
I'm mostly relieved that we pre-arranged to cross the country for parental visits in September, the original rationale for which was getting both trips done before snotty, coughing kids initiated a panic and a collapse just like that we are witnessing - but the speed and scale of the total implosion we're witnessing has still taken me aback a little, although I'm trying to learn no longer to be surprised by anything that our pathetic excuse for a Government says or does. I'm travelling by train to Norfolk tomorrow, and am more than a little concerned that the public transportation network may have been shut down and police and army roadblocks mounted to stop people moving out of area before I can get back again on Tuesday.
The Government is stark staring bonkers. It's completely impossible to trust anything that they say, and you quite simply can't guess what stunt they're going to pull next.
I do hate an inaccurate metaphor. If they are planning the two week lockdown in October in advance it is a fire break, not a circuit breaker.
Also, it was plain from day one the SDP were wrong 'uns, claiming to break the mould when they meant burst the shackles, or something.
Right of centre press noticeably backing away from Johnson in last day or two. 1922 will be dusting down their procedures shortly at this rate.
Something surely has to give.
If Boris gets replaced, it'll be by a Tory MP who will have promised the party two things: (1) diamond-hard WTO Brexit; (2) no more restrictions whatsoever on business or the public to control the virus - pure herd immunity until a vaccine arrives.
Some people may be delighted with both of those things, but be certain that is what you're wishing for, because you're going to get them.
In that case, won't Cummings have to win a seat in Parliament first?
Right of centre press noticeably backing away from Johnson in last day or two. 1922 will be dusting down their procedures shortly at this rate.
Something surely has to give.
If Boris gets replaced, it'll be by a Tory MP who will have promised the party two things: (1) diamond-hard WTO Brexit; (2) no more restrictions whatsoever on business or the public to control the virus - pure herd immunity until a vaccine arrives.
Some people may be delighted with both of those things, but be certain that is what you're wishing for, because you're going to get them.
Nah. Rishi would walk it at the moment, and I think he's got more sense than that.
Assuming the coup comes later, say January as MaxPB suggests, both of those factors are likely to be moot.
Right of centre press noticeably backing away from Johnson in last day or two. 1922 will be dusting down their procedures shortly at this rate.
Something surely has to give.
If Boris gets replaced, it'll be by a Tory MP who will have promised the party two things: (1) diamond-hard WTO Brexit; (2) no more restrictions whatsoever on business or the public to control the virus - pure herd immunity until a vaccine arrives.
Some people may be delighted with both of those things, but be certain that is what you're wishing for, because you're going to get them.
They can use Johnson’s pitch to the Tory party from last time on (1). Say we’re leaving Deal or No Deal unless the EU accept our conditions, they sign up to whatever the EU wants after winning power.
Right of centre press noticeably backing away from Johnson in last day or two. 1922 will be dusting down their procedures shortly at this rate.
Something surely has to give.
If Boris gets replaced, it'll be by a Tory MP who will have promised the party two things: (1) diamond-hard WTO Brexit; (2) no more restrictions whatsoever on business or the public to control the virus - pure herd immunity until a vaccine arrives.
Some people may be delighted with both of those things, but be certain that is what you're wishing for, because you're going to get them.
Is (2) really the 1922 committee consensus? What's the evidence?
Right of centre press noticeably backing away from Johnson in last day or two. 1922 will be dusting down their procedures shortly at this rate.
Something surely has to give.
If Boris gets replaced, it'll be by a Tory MP who will have promised the party two things: (1) diamond-hard WTO Brexit; (2) no more restrictions whatsoever on business or the public to control the virus - pure herd immunity until a vaccine arrives.
Some people may be delighted with both of those things, but be certain that is what you're wishing for, because you're going to get them.
Nah. Rishi would walk it at the moment, and I think he's got more sense than that.
Assuming the coup comes later, say January as MaxPB suggests, both of those factors are likely to be moot.
That depends, the next Tory leadership final 2 are likely to be Rishi Sunak and Priti Patel, Sunak on a soft Brexit, furlough and lockdown when needed, fiscal conservatism otherwise ticket, Patel on a hard as nails Brexit and despite her authoritarian tendencies maybe an easing of lockdowns while cracking down hard on illegal immigration and criminals.
In that case Sunak could end up David Miliband to Patel's Ed Miliband, except 2 British Asians rather than 2 brothers, though I think Boris will lead the Tories into the next general election and that contest will only happen if he loses it
Are the death and hospitalisation rates climbing in line with the incidence of Covid? If not, then perhaps the precaution level could be calibrated a bit better.
I'm still in awe of the ridiculous level of detail you can get on North Carolina Voting.
I'm just cross checking one person from the 2016 file and the 2020 file.
And yes, this unaffiliated female voter in her 70s voted early in person in 2016. But this time out they requested a mail ballot at the start of the month and returned it 3 days ago.
In Lenoir County, 67 year old Ronnie Alcock has changed his registration from Dem to GOP this time round and voted early - obviously a '16 and '20 Trump voter. There's a Dem registered voter though, 90 year old Delia Alcock (Maybe she is his mum ?) who didn't vote early in 2016 and has now cast her vote. I reckon she's gone for Biden.
Are the death and hospitalisation rates climbing in line with the incidence of Covid? If not, then perhaps the precaution level could be calibrated a bit better.
If he ***** over the EU, the party will support him for years, even if the pandemic claims tens of thousands more lives.
But he's going to fuck it up.
It's one thing to Get Brexit done, but when it turns out to be shit it's a problem not just for BoZo but for the entire party machine that backed him.
Shelves empty, the M2, the M20 and the M25 all car parks, diabetics dying through insufficient insulin provisision, sniper turrets on the Northern Ireland border with the EU, Belfast and Derry in flames and still, Bluest Blue, Phillip Thompson and HYUFD will be telling us to hold firm and keep the faith.
Trump giving 13 billion dollars in aid to Puerto Rico for hurricane Maria which happened in 2017 ! Nothing of course to do with Puerto Rican voters in Florida ! This looks desperate and shows his campaign is in trouble . Trump never does anything because it’s the right thing to do but he always expects a return which he won’t get as they won’t forget his response in 2017.
He's having to chase it. And as everyone who follows football or golf knows, when you chase it you go backwards.
Pharma and the WH agreed a 150 billion dollar deal to reduce drug prices which of course the orange lunatic would tout as a huge success . The deal fell apart after the WH wanted cash cards sent to senior citizens to help them pay for drugs . CEOs feared they would be used as props by Trump and it would have been seen as overtly political, more than likely Trump would have wanted his name on the cash cards . You can smell the desperation now with Trump , he’d happily add any amount to the national debt and dish out the goodies to get elected . The fact his ego and desperation blew up a deal that could have given him some boost is delicious for sane people who want this disgusting excuse for a human being removed from the WH.
Right of centre press noticeably backing away from Johnson in last day or two. 1922 will be dusting down their procedures shortly at this rate.
Something surely has to give.
If Boris gets replaced, it'll be by a Tory MP who will have promised the party two things: (1) diamond-hard WTO Brexit; (2) no more restrictions whatsoever on business or the public to control the virus - pure herd immunity until a vaccine arrives.
Some people may be delighted with both of those things, but be certain that is what you're wishing for, because you're going to get them.
U OK Hun?
Leaving aside the fact that that's a scenario where 40+ Conservative MPs (the One Nation types who have been insufficiently purged) would surely defect, anyone with a breath of competence would be better than this.
Are the death and hospitalisation rates climbing in line with the incidence of Covid? If not, then perhaps the precaution level could be calibrated a bit better.
Are the death and hospitalisation rates climbing in line with the incidence of Covid? If not, then perhaps the precaution level could be calibrated a bit better.
Remember deaths and hospitalisations are going to lag infections by 4-6 weeks and 2-3 weeks respectively but there may be some hope that deaths will be lower in this wave if for example:
- It's a younger demographic getting the infection this time round (the government must surely have the numbers on this), and/or...
- Mask wearing is reducing the severity of infections - as suggested here:
Are the death and hospitalisation rates climbing in line with the incidence of Covid? If not, then perhaps the precaution level could be calibrated a bit better.
One can only assume the government knows the latter are. Otherwise why the panic?
I'm still in awe of the ridiculous level of detail you can get on North Carolina Voting.
I'm just cross checking one person from the 2016 file and the 2020 file.
And yes, this unaffiliated female voter in her 70s voted early in person in 2016. But this time out they requested a mail ballot at the start of the month and returned it 3 days ago.
In Lenoir County, 67 year old Ronnie Alcock has changed his registration from Dem to GOP this time round and voted early - obviously a '16 and '20 Trump voter. There's a Dem registered voter though, 90 year old Delia Alcock (Maybe she is his mum ?) who didn't vote early in 2016 and has now cast her vote. I reckon she's gone for Biden.
So what are the features you are looking for? I think I'm going to start with flipped party registrations and work from there.
Are the death and hospitalisation rates climbing in line with the incidence of Covid? If not, then perhaps the precaution level could be calibrated a bit better.
Are the death and hospitalisation rates climbing in line with the incidence of Covid? If not, then perhaps the precaution level could be calibrated a bit better.
Are the death and hospitalisation rates climbing in line with the incidence of Covid? If not, then perhaps the precaution level could be calibrated a bit better.
France worries me politically. What comes next after their Covid fiasco?
Likewise. Macron is starting to look like a less successful version of Blair: the great reformist hope who fails to deliver on his initial promise and instead fires up a culture war that he ultimately loses.
Right of centre press noticeably backing away from Johnson in last day or two. 1922 will be dusting down their procedures shortly at this rate.
Something surely has to give.
If Boris gets replaced, it'll be by a Tory MP who will have promised the party two things: (1) diamond-hard WTO Brexit; (2) no more restrictions whatsoever on business or the public to control the virus - pure herd immunity until a vaccine arrives.
Some people may be delighted with both of those things, but be certain that is what you're wishing for, because you're going to get them.
Nah. Rishi would walk it at the moment, and I think he's got more sense than that.
Assuming the coup comes later, say January as MaxPB suggests, both of those factors are likely to be moot.
That depends, the next Tory leadership final 2 are likely to be Rishi Sunak and Priti Patel, Sunak on a soft Brexit, furlough and lockdown when needed, fiscal conservatism otherwise ticket, Patel on a hard as nails Brexit and despite her authoritarian tendencies maybe an easing of lockdowns while cracking down hard on illegal immigration and criminals.
In that case Sunak could end up David Miliband to Patel's Ed Miliband, except 2 British Asians rather than 2 brothers, though I think Boris will lead the Tories into the next general election and that contest will only happen if he loses it
I respect your views, but in this instance none of what you have written really matters. The picture you have painted is of a chaotic, dysfunctional political organisation that cannot see the wood for the trees.
When do we think we will know the outcome of the US Presidential election for certain?
November 4th seems unlikely.
I think we'll know very quickly given the Biden landslide.
Given most Biden voters will be voting by mail which takes longer to count and come in while most Trump voters are voting on the day the only landslide there will be on the night will be for Trump, if it is close or even if Biden wins reasonably comfortably that result will likely not be known for several days
I'm still in awe of the ridiculous level of detail you can get on North Carolina Voting.
I'm just cross checking one person from the 2016 file and the 2020 file.
And yes, this unaffiliated female voter in her 70s voted early in person in 2016. But this time out they requested a mail ballot at the start of the month and returned it 3 days ago.
In Lenoir County, 67 year old Ronnie Alcock has changed his registration from Dem to GOP this time round and voted early - obviously a '16 and '20 Trump voter. There's a Dem registered voter though, 90 year old Delia Alcock (Maybe she is his mum ?) who didn't vote early in 2016 and has now cast her vote. I reckon she's gone for Biden.
So what are the features you are looking for? I think I'm going to start with flipped party registrations and work from there.
Are the death and hospitalisation rates climbing in line with the incidence of Covid? If not, then perhaps the precaution level could be calibrated a bit better.
When do we think we will know the outcome of the US Presidential election for certain?
November 4th seems unlikely.
I think we'll know very quickly given the Biden landslide.
Given most Biden voters will be voting by mail which takes longer to count and come in while most Trump voters are voting on the day the only landslide there will be on the night will be for Trump, if it is close or even if Biden wins reasonably comfortably that will likely not be known for several days
We'll know. North Carolina counts their ballots efficiently.
Right of centre press noticeably backing away from Johnson in last day or two. 1922 will be dusting down their procedures shortly at this rate.
Something surely has to give.
If Boris gets replaced, it'll be by a Tory MP who will have promised the party two things: (1) diamond-hard WTO Brexit; (2) no more restrictions whatsoever on business or the public to control the virus - pure herd immunity until a vaccine arrives.
Some people may be delighted with both of those things, but be certain that is what you're wishing for, because you're going to get them.
Nah. Rishi would walk it at the moment, and I think he's got more sense than that.
Assuming the coup comes later, say January as MaxPB suggests, both of those factors are likely to be moot.
That depends, the next Tory leadership final 2 are likely to be Rishi Sunak and Priti Patel, Sunak on a soft Brexit, furlough and lockdown when needed, fiscal conservatism otherwise ticket, Patel on a hard as nails Brexit and despite her authoritarian tendencies maybe an easing of lockdowns while cracking down hard on illegal immigration and criminals.
In that case Sunak could end up David Miliband to Patel's Ed Miliband, except 2 British Asians rather than 2 brothers, though I think Boris will lead the Tories into the next general election and that contest will only happen if he loses it
I respect your views, but in this instance none of what you have written really matters. The picture you have painted is of a chaotic, dysfunctional political organisation that cannot see the wood for the trees.
In 2024 the Tories will have been in power 1 year longer than Labour had been in power by 2010, so it is a perfectly plausible scenario
Are the death and hospitalisation rates climbing in line with the incidence of Covid? If not, then perhaps the precaution level could be calibrated a bit better.
France worries me politically. What comes next after their Covid fiasco?
Likewise. Macron is starting to look like a less successful version of Blair: the great reformist hope who fails to deliver on his initial promise and instead fires up a culture war that he ultimately loses.
I think Le Pen may win the first round but Macron will still win the run off in 2022, if he does not it would be Brexit and Trump x10
In the US, voting hours are short. In some states, the polls close as early as 6pm, and nowhere are they open later than about 8pm.
This makes it difficult for people working low end jobs to vote.
With unemployment so high, could we expect a lot of the newly (temporarily or not) unemployed to vote this time around? And will this benefit Trump (lots of non-College educated folk in there) or Biden (people who are unemployed don't vote for the status quo).
Are the death and hospitalisation rates climbing in line with the incidence of Covid? If not, then perhaps the precaution level could be calibrated a bit better.
France worries me politically. What comes next after their Covid fiasco?
Likewise. Macron is starting to look like a less successful version of Blair: the great reformist hope who fails to deliver on his initial promise and instead fires up a culture war that he ultimately loses.
The problem in France will be more immediate than Brexit was here (I would dispute Blair was the architect of Brexit- it couldn't have happened without direct action by Cameron and Johnson).
I find Johnson troubling, but he is a bit-part player compared to Le Pen.
But Johnson had a great day campaigning. In a lab in Oxford and on a construction site, just grafting away in a white coat, and in a hard hat. I just saw it on the news.
He can't do everything! Campaigning, managing a trade arrangement with the EU and dealing with a pandemic. Something has got to give, so why not focus on the subject at which he is best suited, campaigning?
Campaigning for what?
Doesn't matter. Pressing the flesh and doing photo ops is his happy place.
Of young women, presumably.
Boris needs to be careful - after all, his immune systems (physiological and political) HAVE been compromised.
The Conservative Party has got itself into the prettiest of pickles (well, I did try to warn them...). Obviously everyone in the party had known perfectly well for years that Boris was totally unsuited to be PM; indeed that used to be a commonly-expressed view in the party. They went for him in full knowledge of that, purely because by the time of the leadership contest they had got themselves completely obsessed with the leaving date, and his brain-dead promise of taking us out 'do or die' on the 31st October - a promise he clearly couldn't keep - was by that time literally the only thing they were prepared to hear. It was denial of reality on steroids.
Once that deadline was missed, and conveniently forgotten about, they switched their obsession to the next date, 31st January. Despite all the bravura about leaving with no deal, deeper down party members were extremely nervous about crashing out with no deal - as well they should have been. Hence the volte-face Boris managed to get away with, and hence the fact that the election was fought not only on leaving the EU on 31st Jan, but also on leaving with the famous oven-ready deal, despite what it did to NI. 11 months were bought, and squandered, not helped by the pandemic.
Fast forward to today, and the utter unsuitability of Boris to be PM can't be wished away or ignored any more; Covid-19 alone has exposed it cruelly, but even if it hadn't, the lack of progress on a EU trade deal, the childish antics of the Internal Market Bill, the next looming brain-dead deadline, the near-total lack of preparation for exit, and the general chaos of government action and messaging, leave it in no doubt.
But what to do about it? The looming disaster of crashing out with no deal is identical today to what it was in November last year. The same arguments, and the same emotional factors, apply. Having gone through all the trauma eleven months ago to avoid no deal, why would party members, or anyone else, be prepared to accept no deal this time?
There is no solution to this conundrum. Changing leader won't help, unless the new leader is proposing something different to what Boris is proposing (whatever that is), AND that something is acceptable to the party.
So I think he stays for now, unless he personally has had enough, which I doubt (although he doesn't look well). Rather than some well-executed men-in-grey-suits manoeuvre to get the party, and the country, out of the hole it has dug itself into, the chaos will continue. There is still a faint hope that Boris can pull some rabbit out of the hat on the EU - presumably by caving in and pretending it's a triumph - and that will keep spirits up for now. But the reckoning will come, as it always does when the guiding principle is denial of reality.
When do we think we will know the outcome of the US Presidential election for certain?
November 4th seems unlikely.
I think we'll know very quickly given the Biden landslide.
Given most Biden voters will be voting by mail which takes longer to count and come in while most Trump voters are voting on the day the only landslide there will be on the night will be for Trump, if it is close or even if Biden wins reasonably comfortably that will likely not be known for several days
We'll know. North Carolina counts their ballots efficiently.
Even in 2016 Trump led the national popular vote until late morning, lunchtime the next day UK time.
Unless Biden sweeps the Midwest and rustbelt swing states and wins Florida and North Carolina it is likely the results from the West will still be needed
Guardian front page: "New lockdown fears" and "Autumn Breaks Travel special"
Timing is everything.
From the direct quotation of Johnson that can be read on that page, looks like October is going to be April, but with miserable shite weather, and schools. This will continue until next Spring, I imagine.
I do hope that the DWP has started to issue P45s electronically. They probably won't have enough paper in stock to generate all those hard copies.
When do we think we will know the outcome of the US Presidential election for certain?
November 4th seems unlikely.
I think we'll know very quickly given the Biden landslide.
Given most Biden voters will be voting by mail which takes longer to count and come in while most Trump voters are voting on the day the only landslide there will be on the night will be for Trump, if it is close or even if Biden wins reasonably comfortably that will likely not be known for several days
We'll know. North Carolina counts their ballots efficiently.
Though Republican operatives DID (almost) steal a NC congressional election a few years ago.
But as for the official count and election administration, think you are correct.
Right of centre press noticeably backing away from Johnson in last day or two. 1922 will be dusting down their procedures shortly at this rate.
Something surely has to give.
If Boris gets replaced, it'll be by a Tory MP who will have promised the party two things: (1) diamond-hard WTO Brexit; (2) no more restrictions whatsoever on business or the public to control the virus - pure herd immunity until a vaccine arrives.
Some people may be delighted with both of those things, but be certain that is what you're wishing for, because you're going to get them.
Nah. Rishi would walk it at the moment, and I think he's got more sense than that.
Assuming the coup comes later, say January as MaxPB suggests, both of those factors are likely to be moot.
That depends, the next Tory leadership final 2 are likely to be Rishi Sunak and Priti Patel, Sunak on a soft Brexit, furlough and lockdown when needed, fiscal conservatism otherwise ticket, Patel on a hard as nails Brexit and despite her authoritarian tendencies maybe an easing of lockdowns while cracking down hard on illegal immigration and criminals.
In that case Sunak could end up David Miliband to Patel's Ed Miliband, except 2 British Asians rather than 2 brothers, though I think Boris will lead the Tories into the next general election and that contest will only happen if he loses it
I respect your views, but in this instance none of what you have written really matters. The picture you have painted is of a chaotic, dysfunctional political organisation that cannot see the wood for the trees.
In 2024 the Tories will have been in power 1 year longer than Labour had been in power by 2010, so it is a perfectly plausible scenario
I am not really looking as far forward as 2024, we might all be dead by then anyway if Johnson doesn't get a grip.
The last week will go down in history as the nadir for bumbling incompetence. What you are proposing, in particular a triumphant Patel will result in more of the same.
Guardian front page: "New lockdown fears" and "Autumn Breaks Travel special"
Timing is everything.
From the direct quotation of Johnson that can be read on that page, looks like October is going to be April, but with miserable shite weather, and schools. This will continue until next Spring, I imagine.
I do hope that the DWP has started to issue P45s electronically. They probably won't have enough paper in stock to generate all those hard copies.
It's probably all my fault. I have a week in a Cornish cottage booked for October.
The DWP won't be printing P45s - they are likely to be one of the few secotrs recruiting.
The Conservative Party has got itself into the prettiest of pickles (well, I did try to warn them...). Obviously everyone in the party had known perfectly well for years that Boris was totally unsuited to be PM; indeed that used to be a commonly-expressed view in the party. They went for him in full knowledge of that, purely because by the time of the leadership contest they had got themselves completely obsessed with the leaving date, and his brain-dead promise of taking us out 'do or die' on the 31st October - a promise he clearly couldn't keep - was by that time literally the only thing they were prepared to hear. It was denial of reality on steroids.
Once that deadline was missed, and conveniently forgotten about, they switched their obsession to the next date, 31st January which Macron had chosen. Despite all the bravura about leaving with no deal, deeper down party members were extremely nervous about crashing out with no deal - as well they should have been. Hence the volte-face Boris managed to get away with, and hence the fact that the election was fought not only on leaving the EU on 31st Jan, but also on leaving with the famous over-ready deal, despite what it did to NI. 11 months were bought, and squandered, not helped by the pandemic.
Fast forward to today, and the utter unsuitability of Boris to be PM can't be wished away or ignored any more; Covid-19 alone has exposed it cruelly, but even if it hadn't, the lack of progress on a EU trade deal, the childish antics of the Internal Market Bill, the next looming brain-dead deadline, the near-total lack of preparation for exit, and the general chaos of government action and messaging, leave it in no doubt.
But what to do about it? The looming disaster of crashing out with no deal is identical today to what it was in November last year. The same arguments, and the same emotional factors, apply. Having gone through all the trauma eleven months ago to avoid no deal, why would party members, or anyone else, be prepared to accept no deal this time?
There is no solution to this conundrum. Changing leader won't help, unless the new leader is proposing something different to what Boris is proposing (whatever that is), AND that something is acceptable to the party.
So I think he stays for now, unless he personally has had enough, which I doubt (although he doesn't look well). Rather than some well-executed men-in-grey-suits manoeuvre to get the party, and the country, out of the hole it has dug itself into, the chaos will continue. There is still a faint hope that Boris can pull some rabbit out of the hat on the EU - presumably by caving in and pretending it's a triumph - and that will keep spirits up for now. But the reckoning will come, as it always does when the guiding principle is denial of reality.
*Perhaps the Gov't is playing their hand better than it appears on Europe. That's probably wishful thinking though.
Pretty much anything we sign with the EU at this point I reckon the markets will love. Boris could certainly sell pretty much any detail to the country broadly. Oh Farage would cry betrayal, but t'was ever thus. I just don't understand the Gov't strategy unless it's a variant of *
The Conservative Party has got itself into the prettiest of pickles (well, I did try to warn them...). Obviously everyone in the party had known perfectly well for years that Boris was totally unsuited to be PM; indeed that used to be a commonly-expressed view in the party. They went for him in full knowledge of that, purely because by the time of the leadership contest they had got themselves completely obsessed with the leaving date, and his brain-dead promise of taking us out 'do or die' on the 31st October - a promise he clearly couldn't keep - was by that time literally the only thing they were prepared to hear. It was denial of reality on steroids.
Once that deadline was missed, and conveniently forgotten about, they switched their obsession to the next date, 31st January. Despite all the bravura about leaving with no deal, deeper down party members were extremely nervous about crashing out with no deal - as well they should have been. Hence the volte-face Boris managed to get away with, and hence the fact that the election was fought not only on leaving the EU on 31st Jan, but also on leaving with the famous oven-ready deal, despite what it did to NI. 11 months were bought, and squandered, not helped by the pandemic.
Fast forward to today, and the utter unsuitability of Boris to be PM can't be wished away or ignored any more; Covid-19 alone has exposed it cruelly, but even if it hadn't, the lack of progress on a EU trade deal, the childish antics of the Internal Market Bill, the next looming brain-dead deadline, the near-total lack of preparation for exit, and the general chaos of government action and messaging, leave it in no doubt.
But what to do about it? The looming disaster of crashing out with no deal is identical today to what it was in November last year. The same arguments, and the same emotional factors, apply. Having gone through all the trauma eleven months ago to avoid no deal, why would party members, or anyone else, be prepared to accept no deal this time?
There is no solution to this conundrum. Changing leader won't help, unless the new leader is proposing something different to what Boris is proposing (whatever that is), AND that something is acceptable to the party.
So I think he stays for now, unless he personally has had enough, which I doubt (although he doesn't look well). Rather than some well-executed men-in-grey-suits manoeuvre to get the party, and the country, out of the hole it has dug itself into, the chaos will continue. There is still a faint hope that Boris can pull some rabbit out of the hat on the EU - presumably by caving in and pretending it's a triumph - and that will keep spirits up for now. But the reckoning will come, as it always does when the guiding principle is denial of reality.
You have summed up the state of British politics in six short paragraphs.
The Conservative Party has got itself into the prettiest of pickles (well, I did try to warn them...). Obviously everyone in the party had known perfectly well for years that Boris was totally unsuited to be PM; indeed that used to be a commonly-expressed view in the party. They went for him in full knowledge of that, purely because by the time of the leadership contest they had got themselves completely obsessed with the leaving date, and his brain-dead promise of taking us out 'do or die' on the 31st October - a promise he clearly couldn't keep - was by that time literally the only thing they were prepared to hear. It was denial of reality on steroids.
Once that deadline was missed, and conveniently forgotten about, they switched their obsession to the next date, 31st January. Despite all the bravura about leaving with no deal, deeper down party members were extremely nervous about crashing out with no deal - as well they should have been. Hence the volte-face Boris managed to get away with, and hence the fact that the election was fought not only on leaving the EU on 31st Jan, but also on leaving with the famous oven-ready deal, despite what it did to NI. 11 months were bought, and squandered, not helped by the pandemic.
Fast forward to today, and the utter unsuitability of Boris to be PM can't be wished away or ignored any more; Covid-19 alone has exposed it cruelly, but even if it hadn't, the lack of progress on a EU trade deal, the childish antics of the Internal Market Bill, the next looming brain-dead deadline, the near-total lack of preparation for exit, and the general chaos of government action and messaging, leave it in no doubt.
But what to do about it? The looming disaster of crashing out with no deal is identical today to what it was in November last year. The same arguments, and the same emotional factors, apply. Having gone through all the trauma eleven months ago to avoid no deal, why would party members, or anyone else, be prepared to accept no deal this time?
There is no solution to this conundrum. Changing leader won't help, unless the new leader is proposing something different to what Boris is proposing (whatever that is), AND that something is acceptable to the party.
So I think he stays for now, unless he personally has had enough, which I doubt (although he doesn't look well). Rather than some well-executed men-in-grey-suits manoeuvre to get the party, and the country, out of the hole it has dug itself into, the chaos will continue. There is still a faint hope that Boris can pull some rabbit out of the hat on the EU - presumably by caving in and pretending it's a triumph - and that will keep spirits up for now. But the reckoning will come, as it always does when the guiding principle is denial of reality.
Boris was elected Tory leader and PM to do two things, beat Corbyn and deliver Brexit, he has already done both.
When do we think we will know the outcome of the US Presidential election for certain?
November 4th seems unlikely.
I think we'll know very quickly given the Biden landslide.
Given most Biden voters will be voting by mail which takes longer to count and come in while most Trump voters are voting on the day the only landslide there will be on the night will be for Trump, if it is close or even if Biden wins reasonably comfortably that will likely not be known for several days
We'll know. North Carolina counts their ballots efficiently.
Even in 2016 Trump led the national popular vote until late morning, lunchtime the next day UK time.
Unless Biden sweeps the Midwest and rustbelt swing states and wins Florida and North Carolina it is likely the results from the West will still be needed
Biden is going to win Washington, Oregon, California and Hawaii; Trump will win Idaho and Alaska which are the late closing western states. If any of those are remotely close, something extraordinary has happened that we'll know about earlier.
Anecdote Yesterday I had lunch with a friend who is a member of the Tory party as is his wife. He is a staunch Tory, fairly weathly, retired, sharp. He told me he voted for Johnson solely because he was a vote winner but he acknowledges he is a very poor PM. He favours Jeremy Hunt. Just saying.
The Conservative Party has got itself into the prettiest of pickles (well, I did try to warn them...). Obviously everyone in the party had known perfectly well for years that Boris was totally unsuited to be PM; indeed that used to be a commonly-expressed view in the party. They went for him in full knowledge of that, purely because by the time of the leadership contest they had got themselves completely obsessed with the leaving date, and his brain-dead promise of taking us out 'do or die' on the 31st October - a promise he clearly couldn't keep - was by that time literally the only thing they were prepared to hear. It was denial of reality on steroids.
Once that deadline was missed, and conveniently forgotten about, they switched their obsession to the next date, 31st January. Despite all the bravura about leaving with no deal, deeper down party members were extremely nervous about crashing out with no deal - as well they should have been. Hence the volte-face Boris managed to get away with, and hence the fact that the election was fought not only on leaving the EU on 31st Jan, but also on leaving with the famous oven-ready deal, despite what it did to NI. 11 months were bought, and squandered, not helped by the pandemic.
Fast forward to today, and the utter unsuitability of Boris to be PM can't be wished away or ignored any more; Covid-19 alone has exposed it cruelly, but even if it hadn't, the lack of progress on a EU trade deal, the childish antics of the Internal Market Bill, the next looming brain-dead deadline, the near-total lack of preparation for exit, and the general chaos of government action and messaging, leave it in no doubt.
But what to do about it? The looming disaster of crashing out with no deal is identical today to what it was in November last year. The same arguments, and the same emotional factors, apply. Having gone through all the trauma eleven months ago to avoid no deal, why would party members, or anyone else, be prepared to accept no deal this time?
There is no solution to this conundrum. Changing leader won't help, unless the new leader is proposing something different to what Boris is proposing (whatever that is), AND that something is acceptable to the party.
So I think he stays for now, unless he personally has had enough, which I doubt (although he doesn't look well). Rather than some well-executed men-in-grey-suits manoeuvre to get the party, and the country, out of the hole it has dug itself into, the chaos will continue. There is still a faint hope that Boris can pull some rabbit out of the hat on the EU - presumably by caving in and pretending it's a triumph - and that will keep spirits up for now. But the reckoning will come, as it always does when the guiding principle is denial of reality.
Boris was elected Tory leader and PM to do two things, beat Corbyn and deliver Brexit, he has already done both.
Anything else he does until 2024 is just a bonus
“Delivering Brexit” is only useful if its a success.
When do we think we will know the outcome of the US Presidential election for certain?
November 4th seems unlikely.
I think we'll know very quickly given the Biden landslide.
Given most Biden voters will be voting by mail which takes longer to count and come in while most Trump voters are voting on the day the only landslide there will be on the night will be for Trump, if it is close or even if Biden wins reasonably comfortably that will likely not be known for several days
We'll know. North Carolina counts their ballots efficiently.
Even in 2016 Trump led the national popular vote until late morning, lunchtime the next day UK time.
Unless Biden sweeps the Midwest and rustbelt swing states and wins Florida and North Carolina it is likely the results from the West will still be needed
Biden is going to win Washington, Oregon, California and Hawaii; Trump will win Idaho and Alaska which are the late closing western states.
Results in Nevada and Arizona and Colorado are often not confirmed until well into the next day UK time if close all are potential swing states
The Conservative Party has got itself into the prettiest of pickles (well, I did try to warn them...). Obviously everyone in the party had known perfectly well for years that Boris was totally unsuited to be PM; indeed that used to be a commonly-expressed view in the party. They went for him in full knowledge of that, purely because by the time of the leadership contest they had got themselves completely obsessed with the leaving date, and his brain-dead promise of taking us out 'do or die' on the 31st October - a promise he clearly couldn't keep - was by that time literally the only thing they were prepared to hear. It was denial of reality on steroids.
Once that deadline was missed, and conveniently forgotten about, they switched their obsession to the next date, 31st January. Despite all the bravura about leaving with no deal, deeper down party members were extremely nervous about crashing out with no deal - as well they should have been. Hence the volte-face Boris managed to get away with, and hence the fact that the election was fought not only on leaving the EU on 31st Jan, but also on leaving with the famous oven-ready deal, despite what it did to NI. 11 months were bought, and squandered, not helped by the pandemic.
Fast forward to today, and the utter unsuitability of Boris to be PM can't be wished away or ignored any more; Covid-19 alone has exposed it cruelly, but even if it hadn't, the lack of progress on a EU trade deal, the childish antics of the Internal Market Bill, the next looming brain-dead deadline, the near-total lack of preparation for exit, and the general chaos of government action and messaging, leave it in no doubt.
But what to do about it? The looming disaster of crashing out with no deal is identical today to what it was in November last year. The same arguments, and the same emotional factors, apply. Having gone through all the trauma eleven months ago to avoid no deal, why would party members, or anyone else, be prepared to accept no deal this time?
There is no solution to this conundrum. Changing leader won't help, unless the new leader is proposing something different to what Boris is proposing (whatever that is), AND that something is acceptable to the party.
So I think he stays for now, unless he personally has had enough, which I doubt (although he doesn't look well). Rather than some well-executed men-in-grey-suits manoeuvre to get the party, and the country, out of the hole it has dug itself into, the chaos will continue. There is still a faint hope that Boris can pull some rabbit out of the hat on the EU - presumably by caving in and pretending it's a triumph - and that will keep spirits up for now. But the reckoning will come, as it always does when the guiding principle is denial of reality.
Boris was elected Tory leader and PM to do two things, beat Corbyn and deliver Brexit, he has already done both.
Anything else he does until 2024 is just a bonus
Point 1- tick.
Point 2- tick...no wait untick
The bonus. An official Covid fatality figure of 41,000 people.
The Conservative Party has got itself into the prettiest of pickles (well, I did try to warn them...). Obviously everyone in the party had known perfectly well for years that Boris was totally unsuited to be PM; indeed that used to be a commonly-expressed view in the party. They went for him in full knowledge of that, purely because by the time of the leadership contest they had got themselves completely obsessed with the leaving date, and his brain-dead promise of taking us out 'do or die' on the 31st October - a promise he clearly couldn't keep - was by that time literally the only thing they were prepared to hear. It was denial of reality on steroids.
Once that deadline was missed, and conveniently forgotten about, they switched their obsession to the next date, 31st January. Despite all the bravura about leaving with no deal, deeper down party members were extremely nervous about crashing out with no deal - as well they should have been. Hence the volte-face Boris managed to get away with, and hence the fact that the election was fought not only on leaving the EU on 31st Jan, but also on leaving with the famous oven-ready deal, despite what it did to NI. 11 months were bought, and squandered, not helped by the pandemic.
Fast forward to today, and the utter unsuitability of Boris to be PM can't be wished away or ignored any more; Covid-19 alone has exposed it cruelly, but even if it hadn't, the lack of progress on a EU trade deal, the childish antics of the Internal Market Bill, the next looming brain-dead deadline, the near-total lack of preparation for exit, and the general chaos of government action and messaging, leave it in no doubt.
But what to do about it? The looming disaster of crashing out with no deal is identical today to what it was in November last year. The same arguments, and the same emotional factors, apply. Having gone through all the trauma eleven months ago to avoid no deal, why would party members, or anyone else, be prepared to accept no deal this time?
There is no solution to this conundrum. Changing leader won't help, unless the new leader is proposing something different to what Boris is proposing (whatever that is), AND that something is acceptable to the party.
So I think he stays for now, unless he personally has had enough, which I doubt (although he doesn't look well). Rather than some well-executed men-in-grey-suits manoeuvre to get the party, and the country, out of the hole it has dug itself into, the chaos will continue. There is still a faint hope that Boris can pull some rabbit out of the hat on the EU - presumably by caving in and pretending it's a triumph - and that will keep spirits up for now. But the reckoning will come, as it always does when the guiding principle is denial of reality.
Boris was elected Tory leader and PM to do two things, beat Corbyn and deliver Brexit, he has already done both.
Anything else he does until 2024 is just a bonus
Point 1- tick.
Point 2- tick...no wait untick
The bonus. An official Covid fatality figure of 41,000 people.
(Sorry for the bluntness of the final point)
1 Tick, You should thank him for having thrashed Corbyn so we now have a half decent opposition leader in Starmer.
2 Brexit was delivered in January, that was all the referendum result required, the type of Brexit was not on the ballot paper.
On Covid Boris started badly but has got better and Spain has now overtaken us on deaths per head and on current trends France and the US will overtake us on deaths per head within a month too
The Conservative Party has got itself into the prettiest of pickles (well, I did try to warn them...). Obviously everyone in the party had known perfectly well for years that Boris was totally unsuited to be PM; indeed that used to be a commonly-expressed view in the party. They went for him in full knowledge of that, purely because by the time of the leadership contest they had got themselves completely obsessed with the leaving date, and his brain-dead promise of taking us out 'do or die' on the 31st October - a promise he clearly couldn't keep - was by that time literally the only thing they were prepared to hear. It was denial of reality on steroids.
Once that deadline was missed, and conveniently forgotten about, they switched their obsession to the next date, 31st January. Despite all the bravura about leaving with no deal, deeper down party members were extremely nervous about crashing out with no deal - as well they should have been. Hence the volte-face Boris managed to get away with, and hence the fact that the election was fought not only on leaving the EU on 31st Jan, but also on leaving with the famous oven-ready deal, despite what it did to NI. 11 months were bought, and squandered, not helped by the pandemic.
Fast forward to today, and the utter unsuitability of Boris to be PM can't be wished away or ignored any more; Covid-19 alone has exposed it cruelly, but even if it hadn't, the lack of progress on a EU trade deal, the childish antics of the Internal Market Bill, the next looming brain-dead deadline, the near-total lack of preparation for exit, and the general chaos of government action and messaging, leave it in no doubt.
But what to do about it? The looming disaster of crashing out with no deal is identical today to what it was in November last year. The same arguments, and the same emotional factors, apply. Having gone through all the trauma eleven months ago to avoid no deal, why would party members, or anyone else, be prepared to accept no deal this time?
There is no solution to this conundrum. Changing leader won't help, unless the new leader is proposing something different to what Boris is proposing (whatever that is), AND that something is acceptable to the party.
So I think he stays for now, unless he personally has had enough, which I doubt (although he doesn't look well). Rather than some well-executed men-in-grey-suits manoeuvre to get the party, and the country, out of the hole it has dug itself into, the chaos will continue. There is still a faint hope that Boris can pull some rabbit out of the hat on the EU - presumably by caving in and pretending it's a triumph - and that will keep spirits up for now. But the reckoning will come, as it always does when the guiding principle is denial of reality.
The Conservative party deserves to be buried in manure for the shit it has inflicted on us. I doubt it will happen, but it deserves a crushing defeat.
When do we think we will know the outcome of the US Presidential election for certain?
November 4th seems unlikely.
I think we'll know very quickly given the Biden landslide.
Given most Biden voters will be voting by mail which takes longer to count and come in while most Trump voters are voting on the day the only landslide there will be on the night will be for Trump, if it is close or even if Biden wins reasonably comfortably that will likely not be known for several days
We'll know. North Carolina counts their ballots efficiently.
Even in 2016 Trump led the national popular vote until late morning, lunchtime the next day UK time.
Unless Biden sweeps the Midwest and rustbelt swing states and wins Florida and North Carolina it is likely the results from the West will still be needed
Biden is going to win Washington, Oregon, California and Hawaii; Trump will win Idaho and Alaska which are the late closing western states.
Results in Nevada and Arizona and Colorado are often not confirmed until well into the next day UK time if close all are potential swing states
If Biden wins Florida and North Carolina then those are all academic exercises.
Anecdote Yesterday I had lunch with a friend who is a member of the Tory party as is his wife. He is a staunch Tory, fairly weathly, retired, sharp. He told me he voted for Johnson solely because he was a vote winner but he acknowledges he is a very poor PM. He favours Jeremy Hunt. Just saying.
The problem is if Hunt had been leader we would probably still have a hung parliament, the Red Wall would still be Red, Corbyn would still be Labour leader and Brexit would still not have been delivered.
Guardian front page: "New lockdown fears" and "Autumn Breaks Travel special"
Timing is everything.
From the direct quotation of Johnson that can be read on that page, looks like October is going to be April, but with miserable shite weather, and schools. This will continue until next Spring, I imagine.
I do hope that the DWP has started to issue P45s electronically. They probably won't have enough paper in stock to generate all those hard copies.
It's probably all my fault. I have a week in a Cornish cottage booked for October.
The DWP won't be printing P45s - they are likely to be one of the few sectors recruiting.
Am I getting confused - I thought they issued P45s whenever people left work? I last changed employers in 2004; I'm hoping very much that I'm not going to end up as one of the mass casualties of the Johnsonian Depression, but one can be confident of nothing except the ultimate inevitability of death nowadays.
Anyway, I've paid a quick visit to The Graun news report about Johnson's latest remarks and this is part of what they had to say...
An announcement of fresh measures could come as soon as next Tuesday, potentially in an address to the nation by the prime minister, after plans have been rubber-stamped by cabinet.
Government sources denied any new measures would amount to a second national lockdown, which Johnson has described as the “nuclear” option.
From this I have concluded that (i) I am probably safe from being stranded at the end of my long weekend in Norfolk, as I return on Tuesday afternoon and should just about be home by the time Clown Shoes opens his trap (albeit that anything could bloody happen between now and then with these prize lunatics in charge); (ii) there is definitely going to be a second national lockdown, and (iii) it's not coming in October, it's starting at some point not very long after Clown Shoes closes his trap again.
Sorry about your doomed break next month, and all that.
The Conservative Party has got itself into the prettiest of pickles (well, I did try to warn them...). Obviously everyone in the party had known perfectly well for years that Boris was totally unsuited to be PM; indeed that used to be a commonly-expressed view in the party. They went for him in full knowledge of that, purely because by the time of the leadership contest they had got themselves completely obsessed with the leaving date, and his brain-dead promise of taking us out 'do or die' on the 31st October - a promise he clearly couldn't keep - was by that time literally the only thing they were prepared to hear. It was denial of reality on steroids.
Once that deadline was missed, and conveniently forgotten about, they switched their obsession to the next date, 31st January. Despite all the bravura about leaving with no deal, deeper down party members were extremely nervous about crashing out with no deal - as well they should have been. Hence the volte-face Boris managed to get away with, and hence the fact that the election was fought not only on leaving the EU on 31st Jan, but also on leaving with the famous oven-ready deal, despite what it did to NI. 11 months were bought, and squandered, not helped by the pandemic.
Fast forward to today, and the utter unsuitability of Boris to be PM can't be wished away or ignored any more; Covid-19 alone has exposed it cruelly, but even if it hadn't, the lack of progress on a EU trade deal, the childish antics of the Internal Market Bill, the next looming brain-dead deadline, the near-total lack of preparation for exit, and the general chaos of government action and messaging, leave it in no doubt.
But what to do about it? The looming disaster of crashing out with no deal is identical today to what it was in November last year. The same arguments, and the same emotional factors, apply. Having gone through all the trauma eleven months ago to avoid no deal, why would party members, or anyone else, be prepared to accept no deal this time?
There is no solution to this conundrum. Changing leader won't help, unless the new leader is proposing something different to what Boris is proposing (whatever that is), AND that something is acceptable to the party.
So I think he stays for now, unless he personally has had enough, which I doubt (although he doesn't look well). Rather than some well-executed men-in-grey-suits manoeuvre to get the party, and the country, out of the hole it has dug itself into, the chaos will continue. There is still a faint hope that Boris can pull some rabbit out of the hat on the EU - presumably by caving in and pretending it's a triumph - and that will keep spirits up for now. But the reckoning will come, as it always does when the guiding principle is denial of reality.
Boris was elected Tory leader and PM to do two things, beat Corbyn and deliver Brexit, he has already done both.
Anything else he does until 2024 is just a bonus
Point 1- tick.
Point 2- tick...no wait untick
The bonus. An official Covid fatality figure of 41,000 people.
(Sorry for the bluntness of the final point)
1 Tick, You should thank him for having thrashed Corbyn so we now have a half decent opposition leader in Starmer.
2 Brexit was delivered in January, that was all the referendum result required, the type of Brexit was not on the ballot paper.
On Covid Boris started badly but has got better and Spain has now overtaken us on deaths per head and on current trends France and the US will overtake us on deaths per head within a month too
I apologised as I thought my post was crass and unsympathetic.
Your post sweeps away the deaths of probably more like 60,000 people as acceptable because Spain, France and the US will have done worse by the close of business, whenever that is.
Anecdote Yesterday I had lunch with a friend who is a member of the Tory party as is his wife. He is a staunch Tory, fairly weathly, retired, sharp. He told me he voted for Johnson solely because he was a vote winner but he acknowledges he is a very poor PM. He favours Jeremy Hunt. Just saying.
The problem is if Hunt had been leader we would probably still have a hung parliament, the Red Wall would still be Red, Corbyn would still be Labour leader and Brexit would still not have been delivered.
Even if he did do Covid a bit better
Maybe. But my Tory member friend is now looking for a change of PM. And Hunt is his man.
Guardian front page: "New lockdown fears" and "Autumn Breaks Travel special"
Timing is everything.
From the direct quotation of Johnson that can be read on that page, looks like October is going to be April, but with miserable shite weather, and schools. This will continue until next Spring, I imagine.
I do hope that the DWP has started to issue P45s electronically. They probably won't have enough paper in stock to generate all those hard copies.
The lovely weather this spring made lockdown a lot more bearable than it could have been. I guess there is something to be said for
The Conservative Party has got itself into the prettiest of pickles (well, I did try to warn them...). Obviously everyone in the party had known perfectly well for years that Boris was totally unsuited to be PM; indeed that used to be a commonly-expressed view in the party. They went for him in full knowledge of that, purely because by the time of the leadership contest they had got themselves completely obsessed with the leaving date, and his brain-dead promise of taking us out 'do or die' on the 31st October - a promise he clearly couldn't keep - was by that time literally the only thing they were prepared to hear. It was denial of reality on steroids.
Once that deadline was missed, and conveniently forgotten about, they switched their obsession to the next date, 31st January. Despite all the bravura about leaving with no deal, deeper down party members were extremely nervous about crashing out with no deal - as well they should have been. Hence the volte-face Boris managed to get away with, and hence the fact that the election was fought not only on leaving the EU on 31st Jan, but also on leaving with the famous oven-ready deal, despite what it did to NI. 11 months were bought, and squandered, not helped by the pandemic.
Fast forward to today, and the utter unsuitability of Boris to be PM can't be wished away or ignored any more; Covid-19 alone has exposed it cruelly, but even if it hadn't, the lack of progress on a EU trade deal, the childish antics of the Internal Market Bill, the next looming brain-dead deadline, the near-total lack of preparation for exit, and the general chaos of government action and messaging, leave it in no doubt.
But what to do about it? The looming disaster of crashing out with no deal is identical today to what it was in November last year. The same arguments, and the same emotional factors, apply. Having gone through all the trauma eleven months ago to avoid no deal, why would party members, or anyone else, be prepared to accept no deal this time?
There is no solution to this conundrum. Changing leader won't help, unless the new leader is proposing something different to what Boris is proposing (whatever that is), AND that something is acceptable to the party.
So I think he stays for now, unless he personally has had enough, which I doubt (although he doesn't look well). Rather than some well-executed men-in-grey-suits manoeuvre to get the party, and the country, out of the hole it has dug itself into, the chaos will continue. There is still a faint hope that Boris can pull some rabbit out of the hat on the EU - presumably by caving in and pretending it's a triumph - and that will keep spirits up for now. But the reckoning will come, as it always does when the guiding principle is denial of reality.
Boris was elected Tory leader and PM to do two things, beat Corbyn and deliver Brexit, he has already done both.
Anything else he does until 2024 is just a bonus
Point 1- tick.
Point 2- tick...no wait untick
The bonus. An official Covid fatality figure of 41,000 people.
(Sorry for the bluntness of the final point)
That bonus would probably have been paid whoever was PM wouldn’t it?
When do we think we will know the outcome of the US Presidential election for certain?
November 4th seems unlikely.
I think we'll know very quickly given the Biden landslide.
Given most Biden voters will be voting by mail which takes longer to count and come in while most Trump voters are voting on the day the only landslide there will be on the night will be for Trump, if it is close or even if Biden wins reasonably comfortably that will likely not be known for several days
We'll know. North Carolina counts their ballots efficiently.
Even in 2016 Trump led the national popular vote until late morning, lunchtime the next day UK time.
Unless Biden sweeps the Midwest and rustbelt swing states and wins Florida and North Carolina it is likely the results from the West will still be needed
Biden is going to win Washington, Oregon, California and Hawaii; Trump will win Idaho and Alaska which are the late closing western states.
Results in Nevada and Arizona and Colorado are often not confirmed until well into the next day UK time if close all are potential swing states
If Biden wins Florida and North Carolina then those are all academic exercises.
Trump needs to hold Florida, North Carolina and Pennslyvania to have the election rely on Nebraska-2, Arizona and Nevada.
Anecdote Yesterday I had lunch with a friend who is a member of the Tory party as is his wife. He is a staunch Tory, fairly weathly, retired, sharp. He told me he voted for Johnson solely because he was a vote winner but he acknowledges he is a very poor PM. He favours Jeremy Hunt. Just saying.
The problem is if Hunt had been leader we would probably still have a hung parliament, the Red Wall would still be Red, Corbyn would still be Labour leader and Brexit would still not have been delivered.
Even if he did do Covid a bit better
Maybe. But my Tory member friend is now looking for a change of PM. And Hunt is his man.
He maybe but Hunt is yesterday's man, if Boris is replaced by anyone in power it will be Sunak
It's the direction in which the law commission has recommended the government moves. The government have made absolutely no moves toward implementing the recommendations.
The biggest swizz of all is that Jenrick's planning reforms grant the freeholder the right to add another two storeys to your building, if you're a leaseholder. Not you, the freeholder. An estimated windfall of 20-40bn for the UK's freeholders. And if you want to buy the freeholder out (if you are able to - for many reasons enfranchisement is a difficult if not impossible process) buying out the right to the extra two hypothetical storeys will set the leaseholder back an extra ten grand on how much enfranchisement cost before the planning reforms. Cheers, Jenrick!
If you don't like it, you can go and attend a Tory fundraiser like what they do in other democracies.
When do we think we will know the outcome of the US Presidential election for certain?
November 4th seems unlikely.
I think we'll know very quickly given the Biden landslide.
Given most Biden voters will be voting by mail which takes longer to count and come in while most Trump voters are voting on the day the only landslide there will be on the night will be for Trump, if it is close or even if Biden wins reasonably comfortably that will likely not be known for several days
We'll know. North Carolina counts their ballots efficiently.
Even in 2016 Trump led the national popular vote until late morning, lunchtime the next day UK time.
Unless Biden sweeps the Midwest and rustbelt swing states and wins Florida and North Carolina it is likely the results from the West will still be needed
Biden is going to win Washington, Oregon, California and Hawaii; Trump will win Idaho and Alaska which are the late closing western states.
Results in Nevada and Arizona and Colorado are often not confirmed until well into the next day UK time if close all are potential swing states
If Biden wins Florida and North Carolina then those are all academic exercises.
Unlikely, the Cuban vote in Florida is moving to Trump and even Romney won North Carolina
The Conservative Party has got itself into the prettiest of pickles (well, I did try to warn them...). Obviously everyone in the party had known perfectly well for years that Boris was totally unsuited to be PM; indeed that used to be a commonly-expressed view in the party. They went for him in full knowledge of that, purely because by the time of the leadership contest they had got themselves completely obsessed with the leaving date, and his brain-dead promise of taking us out 'do or die' on the 31st October - a promise he clearly couldn't keep - was by that time literally the only thing they were prepared to hear. It was denial of reality on steroids.
Once that deadline was missed, and conveniently forgotten about, they switched their obsession to the next date, 31st January. Despite all the bravura about leaving with no deal, deeper down party members were extremely nervous about crashing out with no deal - as well they should have been. Hence the volte-face Boris managed to get away with, and hence the fact that the election was fought not only on leaving the EU on 31st Jan, but also on leaving with the famous oven-ready deal, despite what it did to NI. 11 months were bought, and squandered, not helped by the pandemic.
Fast forward to today, and the utter unsuitability of Boris to be PM can't be wished away or ignored any more; Covid-19 alone has exposed it cruelly, but even if it hadn't, the lack of progress on a EU trade deal, the childish antics of the Internal Market Bill, the next looming brain-dead deadline, the near-total lack of preparation for exit, and the general chaos of government action and messaging, leave it in no doubt.
But what to do about it? The looming disaster of crashing out with no deal is identical today to what it was in November last year. The same arguments, and the same emotional factors, apply. Having gone through all the trauma eleven months ago to avoid no deal, why would party members, or anyone else, be prepared to accept no deal this time?
There is no solution to this conundrum. Changing leader won't help, unless the new leader is proposing something different to what Boris is proposing (whatever that is), AND that something is acceptable to the party.
So I think he stays for now, unless he personally has had enough, which I doubt (although he doesn't look well). Rather than some well-executed men-in-grey-suits manoeuvre to get the party, and the country, out of the hole it has dug itself into, the chaos will continue. There is still a faint hope that Boris can pull some rabbit out of the hat on the EU - presumably by caving in and pretending it's a triumph - and that will keep spirits up for now. But the reckoning will come, as it always does when the guiding principle is denial of reality.
Boris was elected Tory leader and PM to do two things, beat Corbyn and deliver Brexit, he has already done both.
Anything else he does until 2024 is just a bonus
Point 1- tick.
Point 2- tick...no wait untick
The bonus. An official Covid fatality figure of 41,000 people.
(Sorry for the bluntness of the final point)
1 Tick, You should thank him for having thrashed Corbyn so we now have a half decent opposition leader in Starmer.
2 Brexit was delivered in January, that was all the referendum result required, the type of Brexit was not on the ballot paper.
On Covid Boris started badly but has got better and Spain has now overtaken us on deaths per head and on current trends France and the US will overtake us on deaths per head within a month too
I apologised as I thought my post was crass and unsympathetic.
Your post sweeps away the deaths of probably more like 60,000 people as acceptable because Spain, France and the US will have done worse by the close of business, whenever that is.
The left attacked Boris earlier in the year for having the most deaths in Europe, so clearly they want to judge it as a league table so on that basis Boris and the UK are improving, however brutal measuring it that way may seem.
People are going to die of Covid whatever the government does, all it can do is reduce the rate of increase and total deaths
The Conservative party deserves to be buried in manure for the shit it has inflicted on us. I doubt it will happen, but it deserves a crushing defeat.
They couldn't have done it by themselves, though. They needed all the help Labour gave them.
There is some truth to that, we were bloody fools. Thankfully we’re on the right path.
But as the nation stares into the abyss yet again, the buck stops with the government. The Conservative party needs to get a grip of itself and ditch this populist, nationalist, ideological crap and remember how to govern.
Anecdote Yesterday I had lunch with a friend who is a member of the Tory party as is his wife. He is a staunch Tory, fairly weathly, retired, sharp. He told me he voted for Johnson solely because he was a vote winner but he acknowledges he is a very poor PM. He favours Jeremy Hunt. Just saying.
The problem is if Hunt had been leader we would probably still have a hung parliament, the Red Wall would still be Red, Corbyn would still be Labour leader and Brexit would still not have been delivered.
Even if he did do Covid a bit better
Maybe. But my Tory member friend is now looking for a change of PM. And Hunt is his man.
He maybe but Hunt is yesterday's man, if Boris is replaced by anyone in power it will be Sunak
Then Sunak had better get his skates on, or he's going down with the ship.
And if the polls are as wrong as 2012 Biden obliterates Trump.
True but that would require black and Hispanic turnout as big as Obama got in 2012 for Biden, if there is the same polling error as 2016 the NYT says Trump wins by 278 EC votes to 260 for Biden, though that would still be the closest EC result since 2000.
Biden would pick up Michigan, Arizona and NE02, Trump holds his other 2016 states
Guardian front page: "New lockdown fears" and "Autumn Breaks Travel special"
Timing is everything.
From the direct quotation of Johnson that can be read on that page, looks like October is going to be April, but with miserable shite weather, and schools. This will continue until next Spring, I imagine.
I do hope that the DWP has started to issue P45s electronically. They probably won't have enough paper in stock to generate all those hard copies.
The lovely weather this spring made lockdown a lot more bearable than it could have been. I guess there is something to be said for
The Conservative Party has got itself into the prettiest of pickles (well, I did try to warn them...). Obviously everyone in the party had known perfectly well for years that Boris was totally unsuited to be PM; indeed that used to be a commonly-expressed view in the party. They went for him in full knowledge of that, purely because by the time of the leadership contest they had got themselves completely obsessed with the leaving date, and his brain-dead promise of taking us out 'do or die' on the 31st October - a promise he clearly couldn't keep - was by that time literally the only thing they were prepared to hear. It was denial of reality on steroids.
Once that deadline was missed, and conveniently forgotten about, they switched their obsession to the next date, 31st January. Despite all the bravura about leaving with no deal, deeper down party members were extremely nervous about crashing out with no deal - as well they should have been. Hence the volte-face Boris managed to get away with, and hence the fact that the election was fought not only on leaving the EU on 31st Jan, but also on leaving with the famous oven-ready deal, despite what it did to NI. 11 months were bought, and squandered, not helped by the pandemic.
Fast forward to today, and the utter unsuitability of Boris to be PM can't be wished away or ignored any more; Covid-19 alone has exposed it cruelly, but even if it hadn't, the lack of progress on a EU trade deal, the childish antics of the Internal Market Bill, the next looming brain-dead deadline, the near-total lack of preparation for exit, and the general chaos of government action and messaging, leave it in no doubt.
But what to do about it? The looming disaster of crashing out with no deal is identical today to what it was in November last year. The same arguments, and the same emotional factors, apply. Having gone through all the trauma eleven months ago to avoid no deal, why would party members, or anyone else, be prepared to accept no deal this time?
There is no solution to this conundrum. Changing leader won't help, unless the new leader is proposing something different to what Boris is proposing (whatever that is), AND that something is acceptable to the party.
So I think he stays for now, unless he personally has had enough, which I doubt (although he doesn't look well). Rather than some well-executed men-in-grey-suits manoeuvre to get the party, and the country, out of the hole it has dug itself into, the chaos will continue. There is still a faint hope that Boris can pull some rabbit out of the hat on the EU - presumably by caving in and pretending it's a triumph - and that will keep spirits up for now. But the reckoning will come, as it always does when the guiding principle is denial of reality.
Boris was elected Tory leader and PM to do two things, beat Corbyn and deliver Brexit, he has already done both.
Anything else he does until 2024 is just a bonus
Point 1- tick.
Point 2- tick...no wait untick
The bonus. An official Covid fatality figure of 41,000 people.
(Sorry for the bluntness of the final point)
That bonus would probably have been paid whoever was PM wouldn’t it?
To an extent it would, although certain opinions suggest that if Johnson had been more decisive and locked down earlier more would have survived. By and large I was very supportive of the measures Johnson and his government put in place.
I am more concerned as to how we have arrived at today's news, namely that we could well be seeing a rerun, in terms of the extent of hospitalisations and hence fatalities. For that, Johnson's incompetence has been crucial. The mixed messaging, testing, go back to work, and as far as I am concerned, eat out to help out, will all have contributed IF things do go south.
The Conservative Party has got itself into the prettiest of pickles (well, I did try to warn them...). Obviously everyone in the party had known perfectly well for years that Boris was totally unsuited to be PM; indeed that used to be a commonly-expressed view in the party. They went for him in full knowledge of that, purely because by the time of the leadership contest they had got themselves completely obsessed with the leaving date, and his brain-dead promise of taking us out 'do or die' on the 31st October - a promise he clearly couldn't keep - was by that time literally the only thing they were prepared to hear. It was denial of reality on steroids.
Once that deadline was missed, and conveniently forgotten about, they switched their obsession to the next date, 31st January. Despite all the bravura about leaving with no deal, deeper down party members were extremely nervous about crashing out with no deal - as well they should have been. Hence the volte-face Boris managed to get away with, and hence the fact that the election was fought not only on leaving the EU on 31st Jan, but also on leaving with the famous oven-ready deal, despite what it did to NI. 11 months were bought, and squandered, not helped by the pandemic.
Fast forward to today, and the utter unsuitability of Boris to be PM can't be wished away or ignored any more; Covid-19 alone has exposed it cruelly, but even if it hadn't, the lack of progress on a EU trade deal, the childish antics of the Internal Market Bill, the next looming brain-dead deadline, the near-total lack of preparation for exit, and the general chaos of government action and messaging, leave it in no doubt.
But what to do about it? The looming disaster of crashing out with no deal is identical today to what it was in November last year. The same arguments, and the same emotional factors, apply. Having gone through all the trauma eleven months ago to avoid no deal, why would party members, or anyone else, be prepared to accept no deal this time?
There is no solution to this conundrum. Changing leader won't help, unless the new leader is proposing something different to what Boris is proposing (whatever that is), AND that something is acceptable to the party.
So I think he stays for now, unless he personally has had enough, which I doubt (although he doesn't look well). Rather than some well-executed men-in-grey-suits manoeuvre to get the party, and the country, out of the hole it has dug itself into, the chaos will continue. There is still a faint hope that Boris can pull some rabbit out of the hat on the EU - presumably by caving in and pretending it's a triumph - and that will keep spirits up for now. But the reckoning will come, as it always does when the guiding principle is denial of reality.
Boris was elected Tory leader and PM to do two things, beat Corbyn and deliver Brexit, he has already done both.
Anything else he does until 2024 is just a bonus
“Delivering Brexit” is only useful if its a success.
Anecdote Yesterday I had lunch with a friend who is a member of the Tory party as is his wife. He is a staunch Tory, fairly weathly, retired, sharp. He told me he voted for Johnson solely because he was a vote winner but he acknowledges he is a very poor PM. He favours Jeremy Hunt. Just saying.
The problem is if Hunt had been leader we would probably still have a hung parliament, the Red Wall would still be Red, Corbyn would still be Labour leader and Brexit would still not have been delivered.
Even if he did do Covid a bit better
Maybe. But my Tory member friend is now looking for a change of PM. And Hunt is his man.
He maybe but Hunt is yesterday's man, if Boris is replaced by anyone in power it will be Sunak
Maybe but he and his wife are members with a vote.
Sunak is obviously the favourite at the moment. Articulate and telegenic. But he is going to hit rough waters in the next six months on the economy. And concerns about health may be more important which is Hunt's strong suit. I also have no idea whether there is a racist tinge in the elderly white Tory membership?
Anyway it is just an anecdote that I thought I'd pass on for bettors on next Tory leader.
The Conservative party deserves to be buried in manure for the shit it has inflicted on us. I doubt it will happen, but it deserves a crushing defeat.
They couldn't have done it by themselves, though. They needed all the help Labour gave them.
There is some truth to that, we were bloody fools. Thankfully we’re on the right path.
But as the nation stares into the abyss yet again, the buck stops with the government. The Conservative party needs to get a grip of itself and ditch this populist, nationalist, ideological crap and remember how to govern.
Except Boris only won a majority and breached the Red Wall on a populist, nationalist ticket, that is the new Tory coalition for the foreseeable future, ditch that and they face a Major 1997 style result squeezed by Starmer and Davey on one side and Farage on the other
Anecdote Yesterday I had lunch with a friend who is a member of the Tory party as is his wife. He is a staunch Tory, fairly weathly, retired, sharp. He told me he voted for Johnson solely because he was a vote winner but he acknowledges he is a very poor PM. He favours Jeremy Hunt. Just saying.
The problem is if Hunt had been leader we would probably still have a hung parliament, the Red Wall would still be Red, Corbyn would still be Labour leader and Brexit would still not have been delivered.
Even if he did do Covid a bit better
Maybe. But my Tory member friend is now looking for a change of PM. And Hunt is his man.
He maybe but Hunt is yesterday's man, if Boris is replaced by anyone in power it will be Sunak
Maybe but he and his wife are members with a vote.
Sunak is obviously the favourite at the moment. Articulate and telegenic. But he is going to hit rough waters in the next six months on the economy. And concerns about health may be more important which is Hunt's strong suit. I also have no idea whether there is a racist tinge in the elderly white Tory membership?
Any way it is just an anecdote that I thought I'd pass on for bettors on next Tory leader.
Hunt got only a third of Tory members in 2019, he is not going to win and he was a Remainer, Sunak was a Leaver and that will remain a litmus test for the foreseeable future for the membership
The Conservative party deserves to be buried in manure for the shit it has inflicted on us. I doubt it will happen, but it deserves a crushing defeat.
They couldn't have done it by themselves, though. They needed all the help Labour gave them.
There is some truth to that, we were bloody fools. Thankfully we’re on the right path.
But as the nation stares into the abyss yet again, the buck stops with the government. The Conservative party needs to get a grip of itself and ditch this populist, nationalist, ideological crap and remember how to govern.
Except Boris only won a majority and breached the Red Wall on a populist, nationalist ticket, that is the new Tory coalition for the foreseeable future, ditch that and they face a Major 1997 style result squeezed by Starmer and Davey on one side and Farage on the other
History is littered with politicians that made promises, won elections and turned out to be utterly useless. This government is the textbook example.
Take no pride in your electoral achievements. You won power, but exercise it with all the competence of a chuckle brother. You got the keys to a Porsche, but never learned to drive so steered it into a ditch.
Guardian front page: "New lockdown fears" and "Autumn Breaks Travel special"
Timing is everything.
From the direct quotation of Johnson that can be read on that page, looks like October is going to be April, but with miserable shite weather, and schools. This will continue until next Spring, I imagine.
I do hope that the DWP has started to issue P45s electronically. They probably won't have enough paper in stock to generate all those hard copies.
The lovely weather this spring made lockdown a lot more bearable than it could have been.
The forecast for the rest of autumn is for the current settled weather to give way to westerlies, bringing wet weather from the Atlantic.
It would make a second lockdown markedly grimmer than the first.
A few weeks ago we had supper with some friends. The husband is very successful small businessman.
A mutual friend is an estate agent, and I know several conveyancing solicitors. They're off the scale busy. We just couldn't see why anyone was buying a house at the moment. News on here tonight (albeit in no way tallying with the realities down here in Dorset, as far as I can see) would suggest that we're in for a horrid autumn and winter.
So the question that I can't get away from, is:
Why the hell is the housing market booming like it is?
The Conservative party deserves to be buried in manure for the shit it has inflicted on us. I doubt it will happen, but it deserves a crushing defeat.
They couldn't have done it by themselves, though. They needed all the help Labour gave them.
There is some truth to that, we were bloody fools. Thankfully we’re on the right path.
But as the nation stares into the abyss yet again, the buck stops with the government. The Conservative party needs to get a grip of itself and ditch this populist, nationalist, ideological crap and remember how to govern.
Except Boris only won a majority and breached the Red Wall on a populist, nationalist ticket, that is the new Tory coalition for the foreseeable future, ditch that and they face a Major 1997 style result squeezed by Starmer and Davey on one side and Farage on the other
History is littered with politicians that made promises, won elections and turned out to be utterly useless. This government is the textbook example.
Take no pride in your electoral achievements. You won power, but exercise it with all the competence of a chuckle brother. You got the keys to a Porsche, but never learned to drive so steered it into a ditch.
Well done.
We won, we beat Corbyn and delivered Brexit, that was the main thing.
If you don't win elections you don't get to deliver anything, if you are a Tory even the worst Tory government is still better than the best Labour government and if you are Labour similarly even the worst Labour government is better than the best possible Tory government.
Hunt is the Tory Mitt Romney, good on paper but uncharismatic and unable to win the key swing states and seats filled with white working class voters Boris and Trump did
A few weeks ago we had supper with some friends. The husband is very successful small businessman.
A mutual friend is an estate agent, and I know several conveyancing solicitors. They're off the scake busy. We just couldn't see why anyone was buying a house at the moment. News on here tonight (albeit in no way tallying with the realities down here in Dorset, as far as I can see) would suggest that we're in for a horrid autumn and winter.
So the question that I can't get away from, is:
Why the hell is the housing market booming like it is?
People who are well off and working more from home think the good times will last forever.
A few weeks ago we had supper with some friends. The husband is very successful small businessman.
A mutual friend is an estate agent, and I know several conveyancing solicitors. They're off the scake busy. We just couldn't see why anyone was buying a house at the moment. News on here tonight (albeit in no way tallying with the realities down here in Dorset, as far as I can see) would suggest that we're in for a horrid autumn and winter.
So the question that I can't get away from, is:
Why the hell is the housing market booming like it is?
Stamp duty cut and people buying before a second lockdown. We're looking now for the same reason, think we've settled on Finchley. Sad to leave our flat in Hampstead though.
A few weeks ago we had supper with some friends. The husband is very successful small businessman.
A mutual friend is an estate agent, and I know several conveyancing solicitors. They're off the scake busy. We just couldn't see why anyone was buying a house at the moment. News on here tonight (albeit in no way tallying with the realities down here in Dorset, as far as I can see) would suggest that we're in for a horrid autumn and winter.
So the question that I can't get away from, is:
Why the hell is the housing market booming like it is?
A strange one. If I were a buyer I would hold off until next year and bag a reposession bargain. The choice of homes, I have no doubt, will be extensive.
The Conservative party deserves to be buried in manure for the shit it has inflicted on us. I doubt it will happen, but it deserves a crushing defeat.
They couldn't have done it by themselves, though. They needed all the help Labour gave them.
There is some truth to that, we were bloody fools. Thankfully we’re on the right path.
But as the nation stares into the abyss yet again, the buck stops with the government. The Conservative party needs to get a grip of itself and ditch this populist, nationalist, ideological crap and remember how to govern.
Except Boris only won a majority and breached the Red Wall on a populist, nationalist ticket, that is the new Tory coalition for the foreseeable future, ditch that and they face a Major 1997 style result squeezed by Starmer and Davey on one side and Farage on the other
History is littered with politicians that made promises, won elections and turned out to be utterly useless. This government is the textbook example.
Take no pride in your electoral achievements. You won power, but exercise it with all the competence of a chuckle brother. You got the keys to a Porsche, but never learned to drive so steered it into a ditch.
Well done.
We won, we beat Corbyn and delivered Brexit, that was the main thing.
If you don't win elections you don't get to deliver anything, if you are a Tory even the worst Tory government is still better than the best Labour government and if you are Labour similarly even the worst Labour government is better than the best possible Tory government.
Hunt is the Tory Mitt Romney, good on paper but uncharismatic and unable to win the key swing states and seats filled with white working class voters Boris and Trump did
But Johnson is a ******* disaster who likely as not will take your party to the brink of extinction. Why do you not see that?
A few weeks ago we had supper with some friends. The husband is very successful small businessman.
A mutual friend is an estate agent, and I know several conveyancing solicitors. They're off the scale busy. We just couldn't see why anyone was buying a house at the moment. News on here tonight (albeit in no way tallying with the realities down here in Dorset, as far as I can see) would suggest that we're in for a horrid autumn and winter.
So the question that I can't get away from, is:
Why the hell is the housing market booming like it is?
I would venture for the same reason our business, (mental health) is. People have had time to "stop and look around". They see what they have been too busy to notice. They reflect on mortality. And ask is this really all there is? And don't particularly like what they see. So they resolve to change. Inside and out.
The Conservative party deserves to be buried in manure for the shit it has inflicted on us. I doubt it will happen, but it deserves a crushing defeat.
They couldn't have done it by themselves, though. They needed all the help Labour gave them.
There is some truth to that, we were bloody fools. Thankfully we’re on the right path.
But as the nation stares into the abyss yet again, the buck stops with the government. The Conservative party needs to get a grip of itself and ditch this populist, nationalist, ideological crap and remember how to govern.
Except Boris only won a majority and breached the Red Wall on a populist, nationalist ticket, that is the new Tory coalition for the foreseeable future, ditch that and they face a Major 1997 style result squeezed by Starmer and Davey on one side and Farage on the other
History is littered with politicians that made promises, won elections and turned out to be utterly useless. This government is the textbook example.
Take no pride in your electoral achievements. You won power, but exercise it with all the competence of a chuckle brother. You got the keys to a Porsche, but never learned to drive so steered it into a ditch.
Well done.
We won, we beat Corbyn and delivered Brexit, that was the main thing.
If you don't win elections you don't get to deliver anything, if you are a Tory even the worst Tory government is still better than the best Labour government and if you are Labour similarly even the worst Labour government is better than the best possible Tory government.
Hunt is the Tory Mitt Romney, good on paper but uncharismatic and unable to win the key swing states and seats filled with white working class voters Boris and Trump did
But Johnson is a ******* disaster who likely as not will take your party to the brink of extinction. Why do you not see that?
The only way he will do that is by doing a deal with the EU enabling free movement and no control of our fishing waters and continued EU laws over the UK in which case the base will go to Farage.
Boris knows how to win elections for the Tories as he proved last year, you clearly do not
Comments
Some people may be delighted with both of those things, but be certain that is what you're wishing for, because you're going to get them.
Also, it was plain from day one the SDP were wrong 'uns, claiming to break the mould when they meant burst the shackles, or something.
Assuming the coup comes later, say January as MaxPB suggests, both of those factors are likely to be moot.
It's one thing to Get Brexit done, but when it turns out to be shit it's a problem not just for BoZo but for the entire party machine that backed him.
Gracious me!
In that case Sunak could end up David Miliband to Patel's Ed Miliband, except 2 British Asians rather than 2 brothers, though I think Boris will lead the Tories into the next general election and that contest will only happen if he loses it
There's a Dem registered voter though, 90 year old Delia Alcock (Maybe she is his mum ?) who didn't vote early in 2016 and has now cast her vote. I reckon she's gone for Biden.
https://twitter.com/richardhorton1/status/1306936692226613252?s=21
Pharma and the WH agreed a 150 billion dollar deal to reduce drug prices which of course the orange lunatic would tout as a huge success . The deal fell apart after the WH wanted cash cards sent to senior citizens to help them pay for drugs . CEOs feared they would be used as props by Trump and it would have been seen as overtly political, more than likely Trump would have wanted his name on the cash cards . You can smell the desperation now with Trump , he’d happily add any amount to the national debt and dish out the goodies to get elected . The fact his ego and desperation blew up a deal that could have given him some boost is delicious for sane people who want this disgusting excuse for a human being removed from the WH.
Leaving aside the fact that that's a scenario where 40+ Conservative MPs (the One Nation types who have been insufficiently purged) would surely defect, anyone with a breath of competence would be better than this.
- It's a younger demographic getting the infection this time round (the government must surely have the numbers on this), and/or...
- Mask wearing is reducing the severity of infections - as suggested here:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2026913
Otherwise why the panic?
I think I'm going to start with flipped party registrations and work from there.
Well, it will give the NHS something to do if nothing else.
https://twitter.com/Pulpstar/status/1307067115774631936
https://twitter.com/Pulpstar/status/1307068476415258626
https://twitter.com/Pulpstar/status/1307069397144604679
Timing is everything.
https://twitter.com/SteveMatthews12/status/1307061443058192384?s=19
I find Johnson troubling, but he is a bit-part player compared to Le Pen.
Once that deadline was missed, and conveniently forgotten about, they switched their obsession to the next date, 31st January. Despite all the bravura about leaving with no deal, deeper down party members were extremely nervous about crashing out with no deal - as well they should have been. Hence the volte-face Boris managed to get away with, and hence the fact that the election was fought not only on leaving the EU on 31st Jan, but also on leaving with the famous oven-ready deal, despite what it did to NI. 11 months were bought, and squandered, not helped by the pandemic.
Fast forward to today, and the utter unsuitability of Boris to be PM can't be wished away or ignored any more; Covid-19 alone has exposed it cruelly, but even if it hadn't, the lack of progress on a EU trade deal, the childish antics of the Internal Market Bill, the next looming brain-dead deadline, the near-total lack of preparation for exit, and the general chaos of government action and messaging, leave it in no doubt.
But what to do about it? The looming disaster of crashing out with no deal is identical today to what it was in November last year. The same arguments, and the same emotional factors, apply. Having gone through all the trauma eleven months ago to avoid no deal, why would party members, or anyone else, be prepared to accept no deal this time?
There is no solution to this conundrum. Changing leader won't help, unless the new leader is proposing something different to what Boris is proposing (whatever that is), AND that something is acceptable to the party.
So I think he stays for now, unless he personally has had enough, which I doubt (although he doesn't look well). Rather than some well-executed men-in-grey-suits manoeuvre to get the party, and the country, out of the hole it has dug itself into, the chaos will continue. There is still a faint hope that Boris can pull some rabbit out of the hat on the EU - presumably by caving in and pretending it's a triumph - and that will keep spirits up for now. But the reckoning will come, as it always does when the guiding principle is denial of reality.
Unless Biden sweeps the Midwest and rustbelt swing states and wins Florida and North Carolina it is likely the results from the West will still be needed
I do hope that the DWP has started to issue P45s electronically. They probably won't have enough paper in stock to generate all those hard copies.
But as for the official count and election administration, think you are correct.
The last week will go down in history as the nadir for bumbling incompetence. What you are proposing, in particular a triumphant Patel will result in more of the same.
with voters being able to cast up to 38 votes
One ballot paper, 119 candidates, 38 votes per voter.
The DWP won't be printing P45s - they are likely to be one of the few secotrs recruiting.
Pretty much anything we sign with the EU at this point I reckon the markets will love. Boris could certainly sell pretty much any detail to the country broadly. Oh Farage would cry betrayal, but t'was ever thus.
I just don't understand the Gov't strategy unless it's a variant of *
You have summed up the state of British politics in six short paragraphs.
Anything else he does until 2024 is just a bonus
Yesterday I had lunch with a friend who is a member of the Tory party as is his wife. He is a staunch Tory, fairly weathly, retired, sharp.
He told me he voted for Johnson solely because he was a vote winner but he acknowledges he is a very poor PM. He favours Jeremy Hunt. Just saying.
Point 2- tick...no wait untick
The bonus. An official Covid fatality figure of 41,000 people.
(Sorry for the bluntness of the final point)
2 Brexit was delivered in January, that was all the referendum result required, the type of Brexit was not on the ballot paper.
On Covid Boris started badly but has got better and Spain has now overtaken us on deaths per head and on current trends France and the US will overtake us on deaths per head within a month too
Even if he did do Covid a bit better
Anyway, I've paid a quick visit to The Graun news report about Johnson's latest remarks and this is part of what they had to say...
An announcement of fresh measures could come as soon as next Tuesday, potentially in an address to the nation by the prime minister, after plans have been rubber-stamped by cabinet.
Government sources denied any new measures would amount to a second national lockdown, which Johnson has described as the “nuclear” option.
From this I have concluded that (i) I am probably safe from being stranded at the end of my long weekend in Norfolk, as I return on Tuesday afternoon and should just about be home by the time Clown Shoes opens his trap (albeit that anything could bloody happen between now and then with these prize lunatics in charge); (ii) there is definitely going to be a second national lockdown, and (iii) it's not coming in October, it's starting at some point not very long after Clown Shoes closes his trap again.
Sorry about your doomed break next month, and all that.
Your post sweeps away the deaths of probably more like 60,000 people as acceptable because Spain, France and the US will have done worse by the close of business, whenever that is.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/2nrkP
People are going to die of Covid whatever the government does, all it can do is reduce the rate of increase and total deaths
But as the nation stares into the abyss yet again, the buck stops with the government. The Conservative party needs to get a grip of itself and ditch this populist, nationalist, ideological crap and remember how to govern.
I am more concerned as to how we have arrived at today's news, namely that we could well be seeing a rerun, in terms of the extent of hospitalisations and hence fatalities. For that, Johnson's incompetence has been crucial. The mixed messaging, testing, go back to work, and as far as I am concerned, eat out to help out, will all have contributed IF things do go south.
However.
Sunak is obviously the favourite at the moment. Articulate and telegenic. But he is going to hit rough waters in the next six months on the economy. And concerns about health may be more important which is Hunt's strong suit. I also have no idea whether there is a racist tinge in the elderly white Tory membership?
Anyway it is just an anecdote that I thought I'd pass on for bettors on next Tory leader.
Night all.
Take no pride in your electoral achievements. You won power, but exercise it with all the competence of a chuckle brother. You got the keys to a Porsche, but never learned to drive so steered it into a ditch.
Well done.
It would make a second lockdown markedly grimmer than the first.
A mutual friend is an estate agent, and I know several conveyancing solicitors. They're off the scale busy. We just couldn't see why anyone was buying a house at the moment. News on here tonight (albeit in no way tallying with the realities down here in Dorset, as far as I can see) would suggest that we're in for a horrid autumn and winter.
So the question that I can't get away from, is:
Why the hell is the housing market booming like it is?
If you don't win elections you don't get to deliver anything, if you are a Tory even the worst Tory government is still better than the best Labour government and if you are Labour similarly even the worst Labour government is better than the best possible Tory government.
Hunt is the Tory Mitt Romney, good on paper but uncharismatic and unable to win the key swing states and seats filled with white working class voters Boris and Trump did
People have had time to "stop and look around".
They see what they have been too busy to notice. They reflect on mortality. And ask is this really all there is?
And don't particularly like what they see. So they resolve to change.
Inside and out.
Echoing Mexicanpete, next year might finally be time to bag the pied a terre I've been wanting since I left London....
Boris knows how to win elections for the Tories as he proved last year, you clearly do not