My daughter went to a pizza restaurant on Wednesday night. The restaurant has now been closed as a result of a Covid case or cases being linked back there. No contact yet from track and trace although details were left. Should she: (a) be isolating (and if so should we all be isolating too)? (b) have a test? (c) meet her 84 year old grandma for lunch today as planned?
I am genuinely asking. I have been following this more closely than most, I have been looking online for advice and I really don't know which doesn't say much about government messaging.
I made the point earlier in the week that this place has regressed from being a balanced mix to an overwhelming pro EU, anti Boris abbatoir. No problem with that I'm not pro Boris but it makes for very dull, one sided conversation.
I log on 2 or 3 days later and see more of the same in a header from Alastair Meeks.
Mr Smithson this is your site and your prerogative but you might wonder why the number of posters and contributions has fallen.
I think the problem has been that a number of vocal leavers - say @MaxPB, @Casino_Royale, @Richard_Tyndall, @DavidL and myself - have found ourselves in the position of criticising the government over their proposed Internal Markets Bill.
So, I don't think the issue is that Leavers have left the site (are there any that you can think of that were here three months ago, that are not here now?), but more the government is behaving in an incompetent and self defeating manner.
I have been very vocal in condemning Boris on this to the extent I believe he should resign and I absolutely agree HMG is behaving in an incompetent and self defeating manner.
However, I still want the divorce from the EU confirmed at the end of the year and continue as a conservative party member
What part of our vassal state-age are you willing to retain in order to get a deal? 🤓
I want an amicable divorce but if not it will be no deal
You were never going to get an amicable divorce. We are going from colleagues to competitors.
Yanis Varoufakis warned of this right at the start - drawing on his experience with the Greek clash with the EU a few years ago. They are brutal to deal with.
Alfie, from Peaky Blinders, sums it up nicely: "Big fucks small always, actually. There is a fight going on out there between big and small. Big will fuck small."
My daughter went to a pizza restaurant in Glasgow on Wednesday night with friends. The restaurant has now been closed as a result of a Covid case or cases being linked back there. No contact yet from track and trace although details were left. Should she: (a) be isolating (and if so should we all be isolating too)? (b) have a test? (c) meet her 84 year old grandma for lunch today as planned?
I am genuinely asking. I have been following this more closely than most, I have been looking online for advice and I really don't know which doesn't say much about government messaging.
I made the point earlier in the week that this place has regressed from being a balanced mix to an overwhelming pro EU, anti Boris abbatoir. No problem with that I'm not pro Boris but it makes for very dull, one sided conversation.
I log on 2 or 3 days later and see more of the same in a header from Alastair Meeks.
Mr Smithson this is your site and your prerogative but you might wonder why the number of posters and contributions has fallen.
I have been on and off here since 2005. I can't see much difference in opinion tbh. Unpopular incumbency will be dealt the harshest hand, but isn't that always the way?
Keep up the good work.
The major difference, I’ve been around since 2005 as well is the reduction in active, vocal Lib Dems, reflecting the outside world. There does appear to be more people pushing strict party lines rather than opinion. It still remains an excellent window into how middle class, professional UK thinks with a good spread of views from other countries. I doubt there is anywhere like it and all the views help the punter to decide how they view the offered odds.
You started about the same time as me. We've seen the balance change many times and in many ways over that time but I agree that it remains an outstanding forum for varied and intelligent discussion.
Are you implying that we occasionally go off topic? Moderators please!
The silver lining if you're GOP is you could say the Democrats are just getting their vote out early. But I'd still say this is good thus far for the blue team.
And you can still get Biden at 11/10 to win the State. This is remarkable given that he has a small but steady lead in the polls there.
Those 2016 non voters seem to be turning out too. It might be more like the 2018 midterms. Difficult to be sure with the pandemic and all, but hopefully a Biden landslide. A clear victory is needed.
The silver lining if you're GOP is you could say the Democrats are just getting their vote out early. But I'd still say this is good thus far for the blue team.
The silver lining if you're GOP is you could say the Democrats are just getting their vote out early. But I'd still say this is good thus far for the blue team.
And you can still get Biden at 11/10 to win the State. This is remarkable given that he has a small but steady lead in the polls there.
It's very early though. I'm going to do some more analysis on how the partisan lean in 2016 translated to the ultimate outcome. One thing I'm assuming is that relatively few people have changed their mind so broadly speaking it's a turnout game
Biden is favoured to win the election 75% of the time - that's up from 69% last time I looked.
The math is blissfully simple. He should be 3/1 on. You can back him at 5/4 on (the Party) or 6/5 on (the man himself). You won't often see better betting opportunities than that.
Agreed.
Back in the days when I was punting semi-professionally I generally wanted a 10% edge on any bet. It's 20% plus here, depending on how you calculate it. You don't often see that. A serious punter would not just want to bet but feel they had to.
I made the point earlier in the week that this place has regressed from being a balanced mix to an overwhelming pro EU, anti Boris abbatoir. No problem with that I'm not pro Boris but it makes for very dull, one sided conversation.
I log on 2 or 3 days later and see more of the same in a header from Alastair Meeks.
Mr Smithson this is your site and your prerogative but you might wonder why the number of posters and contributions has fallen.
I think the problem has been that a number of vocal leavers - say @MaxPB, @Casino_Royale, @Richard_Tyndall, @DavidL and myself - have found ourselves in the position of criticising the government over their proposed Internal Markets Bill.
So, I don't think the issue is that Leavers have left the site (are there any that you can think of that were here three months ago, that are not here now?), but more the government is behaving in an incompetent and self defeating manner.
I have been very vocal in condemning Boris on this to the extent I believe he should resign and I absolutely agree HMG is behaving in an incompetent and self defeating manner.
However, I still want the divorce from the EU confirmed at the end of the year and continue as a conservative party member
Therefor HMG and the PM will take your continued membership as 100% support for their actions.
The silver lining if you're GOP is you could say the Democrats are just getting their vote out early. But I'd still say this is good thus far for the blue team.
And you can still get Biden at 11/10 to win the State. This is remarkable given that he has a small but steady lead in the polls there.
I got burnt on North Carolina by failing to keep checking the early data totals, they started off well for Clinton but then tailed off.
With the 10x increase in absentee ballots it will be impossible to check this year.
My daughter went to a pizza restaurant on Wednesday night. The restaurant has now been closed as a result of a Covid case or cases being linked back there. No contact yet from track and trace although details were left. Should she: (a) be isolating (and if so should we all be isolating too)? (b) have a test? (c) meet her 84 year old grandma for lunch today as planned?
I am genuinely asking. I have been following this more closely than most, I have been looking online for advice and I really don't know which doesn't say much about government messaging.
I would hold off meeting grandma, it is a bit soon for symptoms to show. Otherwise await T and T.
Interesting but a little lop sided. Mr Meeks does not give enough credit for the fact that overwhelmingly UK people are moderate centrists and a fortiori so are a good number of Brexit voters.
A decent comparison is Scottish nationalism. They are very like Brexit voters - moderate, decent, tolerant, filled with ideals and principle, wedded to long term solutions and the history of national identity spurring them on to moderate but deeply held political conviction. For myself I agree with their Brexiteer mirror images, and disagree with the SNP.
For those who genuinely preferred UK independence to being in the EU there was no choice but to vote for and with all sorts of oddities - naturally. Just as moderate Scottish independence supporters have no choice but to support the SNP with all its evasions, contradictions and weaknesses.
Mr Meeks makes good and interesting points but his argument is not helped by partisan caricature.
I don't think the SNP comparison is valid because while SNP voters are spread across the spectrum on social issues like immigration, law and order, feminism etc (and I am guessing are more liberal than Unionists on average given the difference in age profile) there is overwhelming evidence that Leave voters skew sharply to the right on these questions (eg https://britainthinks.com/pdfs/Leavers-and-Remainers-true-tribes-or-trite-tropes-Autosaved.pdf). For instance, the best predictor of Leave vs Remain is views on the death penalty. Leavers are not, on average, centrist moderates who just happen to dislike the EU, although of course some are.
My contention is simply this: Anyone who thinks that millions of UK people are extremists is just wrong. They aren't. Overwhelmingly they are moderates. Therefore Brexit supporters are by and large moderates or centrists. All our analysis must take account of this boring logic and ignoring it is to declare war on reality. Mr Meeks is a prime example of a first rate commentator vitiated by this weakness.
I made the point earlier in the week that this place has regressed from being a balanced mix to an overwhelming pro EU, anti Boris abbatoir. No problem with that I'm not pro Boris but it makes for very dull, one sided conversation.
I log on 2 or 3 days later and see more of the same in a header from Alastair Meeks.
Mr Smithson this is your site and your prerogative but you might wonder why the number of posters and contributions has fallen.
I think the problem has been that a number of vocal leavers - say @MaxPB, @Casino_Royale, @Richard_Tyndall, @DavidL and myself - have found ourselves in the position of criticising the government over their proposed Internal Markets Bill.
So, I don't think the issue is that Leavers have left the site (are there any that you can think of that were here three months ago, that are not here now?), but more the government is behaving in an incompetent and self defeating manner.
I have been very vocal in condemning Boris on this to the extent I believe he should resign and I absolutely agree HMG is behaving in an incompetent and self defeating manner.
However, I still want the divorce from the EU confirmed at the end of the year and continue as a conservative party member
Well yes. And this is the bit I find most objectionable, it's a "all people who are not with me are against me" attitude. If you don't back us passing a stupid law, then you must be a closet Remainer.
I am not the biggest Boris fan. I thought him better than May, but have never loved the "lovable rogue" image he's created for himself.
But the slipshod way that the Internal Markets Bill has been drafted (being incompatible with our membership of a bunch of international bodeies), that it has been released at a time when the UK is trying to replicate existing tax treaties with individual EU states, make me rather cross.
If you think the EU is being unreasonable, then say so and withdraw from the Withdrawal Agreement. Don't attempt to make domestic law incompatible with Treaty Obligations. Because that's just being a wanker.
Completely agree. If he really wanted to up the ante because he was frustrated by what he perceives as EU intransigence there were a series of "honourable" ways that this could have been done without damaging our long term credibility. This bill was not one of them.
Biden is favoured to win the election 75% of the time - that's up from 69% last time I looked.
The math is blissfully simple. He should be 3/1 on. You can back him at 5/4 on (the Party) or 6/5 on (the man himself). You won't often see better betting opportunities than that.
I don't think people are going to lose much sleep on the legal consequences of breaking the rule of 6. Who in practical terms is going to enforce it? Besides which people aren't as stupid as the government, they can see the absurdity of what has been put forward.
Let me give you an example. There are several of us leaving my company next month. Ordinarily we'd have a big piss up. But rule of 6 says that having spent all day working together it is unsafe and illegal to go down the pub. So the proposed solution is to have the piss up in the office (as used to be the tradition when I was a junior advertising sales bod in the magazine industry 20 years ago).
If you wish to act selfishly and in defiance of a public health crisis you will contribute to the continuation of this destructive disease to the detriment of the health and economy of our nation
I won't be. It is absolutely legal for more than 6 of us to be in office and factory. My point about others is that the evening down the pub that 5 of us have organised next week will absolutely breech the rule of 6. Because there will be more than 6 people in the pub. "Ah but you won't be socially mixing" says the government. Which as anyone who has ever been in a pub knows is bollocks.
The new rules are a nonsense. The local high schools tip their kids out who all walk home in a large group, albeit a smaller group than then have spent all day in. That is legal and safe But if they start playing football as they cross the park? Apparently they are acting "selfishly and in defiance of a public health crisis".
Its. Bollocks. Mate.
In defence of the government, it is impossible to give advice that is both straightforward and deals correctly with every possible circumstance!
Hardly: "Transmission of the virus in enclosed spaces and close proximity means that we are going to have to reinstate some of the measures previously lifted. You MUST maintain 2m distancing from each other at all times. In addition you must now wear a mask at all times when you inside any building that isn't your home or on public transport and in taxis."
Done. No inconsistencies. No absurdities. Stay the hell away from each other and wear a mask.
No exception for family members? The missus isn't going to be pleased when I tell her she's sleeping on the sofa.
If you think the EU is being unreasonable, then say so and withdraw from the Withdrawal Agreement. Don't attempt to make domestic law incompatible with Treaty Obligations. Because that's just being a wanker.
But "wanker" is BoZo's USP
Brexiteers wanted him to blow things up. Only now are they concerned about exactly what will be left after the explosion
Brought to you by friend of the Leopards Eating Faces Party...
It doesn't seem to be merely age of infection that is behind the current low mortality. In this recent German study, mortality was down in all age groups:
Here in Wales masks are still not mandatory. I would like Mark Drakeford and Vaughan Gethin to be made aware of the finding.
Is Wales experiencing a particular resurgence compared to the rest of the UK? Or are the vast majority wearing masks without being asked?
Rates are high to the point of being worrisome in the area of South East Wales , mainly North of the M4. Caerphilly, RCT, Merthyr and Newport is looking dodgy too. Local lockdown in Caerphilly already expect RCT and Merthyr by the weekend.
If you think the EU is being unreasonable, then say so and withdraw from the Withdrawal Agreement. Don't attempt to make domestic law incompatible with Treaty Obligations. Because that's just being a wanker.
But "wanker" is BoZo's USP
Brexiteers wanted him to blow things up. Only now are they concerned about exactly what will be left after the explosion
Brought to you by friend of the Leopards Eating Faces Party...
He was only supposed to blow the f*****g door off.
My daughter went to a pizza restaurant in Glasgow on Wednesday night with friends. The restaurant has now been closed as a result of a Covid case or cases being linked back there. No contact yet from track and trace although details were left. Should she: (a) be isolating (and if so should we all be isolating too)? (b) have a test? (c) meet her 84 year old grandma for lunch today as planned?
I am genuinely asking. I have been following this more closely than most, I have been looking online for advice and I really don't know which doesn't say much about government messaging.
a) no b) no, as she has no symptoms c) Depends on grandma. Explain full facts to her and let her decide. If I were grandma I`d want to see my granddaugher and put quality of life over quantity at the age of 84.
My daughter went to a pizza restaurant on Wednesday night. The restaurant has now been closed as a result of a Covid case or cases being linked back there. No contact yet from track and trace although details were left. Should she: (a) be isolating (and if so should we all be isolating too)? (b) have a test? (c) meet her 84 year old grandma for lunch today as planned?
I am genuinely asking. I have been following this more closely than most, I have been looking online for advice and I really don't know which doesn't say much about government messaging.
I would hold off meeting grandma, it is a bit soon for symptoms to show. Otherwise await T and T.
I made the point earlier in the week that this place has regressed from being a balanced mix to an overwhelming pro EU, anti Boris abbatoir. No problem with that I'm not pro Boris but it makes for very dull, one sided conversation.
I log on 2 or 3 days later and see more of the same in a header from Alastair Meeks.
Mr Smithson this is your site and your prerogative but you might wonder why the number of posters and contributions has fallen.
I think the problem has been that a number of vocal leavers - say @MaxPB, @Casino_Royale, @Richard_Tyndall, @DavidL and myself - have found ourselves in the position of criticising the government over their proposed Internal Markets Bill.
So, I don't think the issue is that Leavers have left the site (are there any that you can think of that were here three months ago, that are not here now?), but more the government is behaving in an incompetent and self defeating manner.
I have been very vocal in condemning Boris on this to the extent I believe he should resign and I absolutely agree HMG is behaving in an incompetent and self defeating manner.
However, I still want the divorce from the EU confirmed at the end of the year and continue as a conservative party member
What part of our vassal state-age are you willing to retain in order to get a deal? 🤓
I want an amicable divorce but if not it will be no deal
You were never going to get an amicable divorce. We are going from colleagues to competitors.
Yanis Varoufakis warned of this right at the start - drawing on his experience with the Greek clash with the EU a few years ago. They are brutal to deal with.
Alfie, from Peaky Blinders, sums it up nicely: "Big fucks small always, actually. There is a fight going on out there between big and small. Big will fuck small."
Yanis turned up at the IMF and said
"The EU are being so unreasonable, can you help me."
The IMF then demanded massively more than the EU. Indeed, the EU basically forced the IMF to agree to more generous terms with Greece than were in their remit. See George Papaconstantinou's excellent Game Over. (And indeed, the IMF's own board meeting minutes.)
Interesting but a little lop sided. Mr Meeks does not give enough credit for the fact that overwhelmingly UK people are moderate centrists and a fortiori so are a good number of Brexit voters.
A decent comparison is Scottish nationalism. They are very like Brexit voters - moderate, decent, tolerant, filled with ideals and principle, wedded to long term solutions and the history of national identity spurring them on to moderate but deeply held political conviction. For myself I agree with their Brexiteer mirror images, and disagree with the SNP.
For those who genuinely preferred UK independence to being in the EU there was no choice but to vote for and with all sorts of oddities - naturally. Just as moderate Scottish independence supporters have no choice but to support the SNP with all its evasions, contradictions and weaknesses.
Mr Meeks makes good and interesting points but his argument is not helped by partisan caricature.
Yes. One of the main reasons for voting Leave among people who I've spoken to was simply the £350m for the NHS. Many of them didn't have particularly strong feelings either way about the EU or immigration and didn't know or care about things like free trade.
Christ, the cynical nastiness of that NHS shit and the drooling stupidity of those duped by it.
Let's confiscate all the property of the Jews and give the proceeds to the NHS. Let's reintroduce hanging and give the money we spend on life imprisonment to the NHS.
Willing the end is willing the means. In hindsight (in my case, others saw this at the time) the proper response to the referendum was OK I'd quite like in some ways to leave the EU, but not if it entails my allying myself in any way with this parcel of shits.
My daughter went to a pizza restaurant on Wednesday night. The restaurant has now been closed as a result of a Covid case or cases being linked back there. No contact yet from track and trace although details were left. Should she: (a) be isolating (and if so should we all be isolating too)? (b) have a test? (c) meet her 84 year old grandma for lunch today as planned?
I am genuinely asking. I have been following this more closely than most, I have been looking online for advice and I really don't know which doesn't say much about government messaging.
I would hold off meeting grandma, it is a bit soon for symptoms to show. Otherwise await T and T.
Restaurants again...
No masks when you are eating. Social groupings. Alcohol. It's hardly surprising. But do we really want to give up on them?
The silver lining if you're GOP is you could say the Democrats are just getting their vote out early. But I'd still say this is good thus far for the blue team.
The silver lining if you're GOP is you could say the Democrats are just getting their vote out early. But I'd still say this is good thus far for the blue team.
And you can still get Biden at 11/10 to win the State. This is remarkable given that he has a small but steady lead in the polls there.
It's very early though. I'm going to do some more analysis on how the partisan lean in 2016 translated to the ultimate outcome. One thing I'm assuming is that relatively few people have changed their mind so broadly speaking it's a turnout game
Sabato reckons minds are made up and not likely to change during final 50 day stretch of campaign if that helps your calcs.
My daughter went to a pizza restaurant on Wednesday night. The restaurant has now been closed as a result of a Covid case or cases being linked back there. No contact yet from track and trace although details were left. Should she: (a) be isolating (and if so should we all be isolating too)? (b) have a test? (c) meet her 84 year old grandma for lunch today as planned?
I am genuinely asking. I have been following this more closely than most, I have been looking online for advice and I really don't know which doesn't say much about government messaging.
I think you should all isolate pending a test and most definitely not see Grandma for 14 days
My son's 8 year old daughter had a cold and loss of taste and she has had to leave school with her 6 year of brother and the family to have a test and go into quarantine until her test results are known
I don't think people are going to lose much sleep on the legal consequences of breaking the rule of 6. Who in practical terms is going to enforce it? Besides which people aren't as stupid as the government, they can see the absurdity of what has been put forward.
Let me give you an example. There are several of us leaving my company next month. Ordinarily we'd have a big piss up. But rule of 6 says that having spent all day working together it is unsafe and illegal to go down the pub. So the proposed solution is to have the piss up in the office (as used to be the tradition when I was a junior advertising sales bod in the magazine industry 20 years ago).
If you wish to act selfishly and in defiance of a public health crisis you will contribute to the continuation of this destructive disease to the detriment of the health and economy of our nation
I won't be. It is absolutely legal for more than 6 of us to be in office and factory. My point about others is that the evening down the pub that 5 of us have organised next week will absolutely breech the rule of 6. Because there will be more than 6 people in the pub. "Ah but you won't be socially mixing" says the government. Which as anyone who has ever been in a pub knows is bollocks.
The new rules are a nonsense. The local high schools tip their kids out who all walk home in a large group, albeit a smaller group than then have spent all day in. That is legal and safe But if they start playing football as they cross the park? Apparently they are acting "selfishly and in defiance of a public health crisis".
Its. Bollocks. Mate.
In defence of the government, it is impossible to give advice that is both straightforward and deals correctly with every possible circumstance!
Hardly: "Transmission of the virus in enclosed spaces and close proximity means that we are going to have to reinstate some of the measures previously lifted. You MUST maintain 2m distancing from each other at all times. In addition you must now wear a mask at all times when you inside any building that isn't your home or on public transport and in taxis."
Done. No inconsistencies. No absurdities. Stay the hell away from each other and wear a mask.
No exception for family members? The missus isn't going to be pleased when I tell her she's sleeping on the sofa.
Now there's an optimist at work. The missus on the sofa? Ha!
The silver lining if you're GOP is you could say the Democrats are just getting their vote out early. But I'd still say this is good thus far for the blue team.
The silver lining if you're GOP is you could say the Democrats are just getting their vote out early. But I'd still say this is good thus far for the blue team.
And you can still get Biden at 11/10 to win the State. This is remarkable given that he has a small but steady lead in the polls there.
It's very early though. I'm going to do some more analysis on how the partisan lean in 2016 translated to the ultimate outcome. One thing I'm assuming is that relatively few people have changed their mind so broadly speaking it's a turnout game
What are the vertical scale units? The numbers are not whole so it's not actually numbers of people - 100s?
My daughter went to a pizza restaurant in Glasgow on Wednesday night with friends. The restaurant has now been closed as a result of a Covid case or cases being linked back there. No contact yet from track and trace although details were left. Should she: (a) be isolating (and if so should we all be isolating too)? (b) have a test? (c) meet her 84 year old grandma for lunch today as planned?
I am genuinely asking. I have been following this more closely than most, I have been looking online for advice and I really don't know which doesn't say much about government messaging.
The problem with CV19 is that you are most infectious before you have symptoms. So I'd go with No, Yes, No.
I don't think people are going to lose much sleep on the legal consequences of breaking the rule of 6. Who in practical terms is going to enforce it? Besides which people aren't as stupid as the government, they can see the absurdity of what has been put forward.
Let me give you an example. There are several of us leaving my company next month. Ordinarily we'd have a big piss up. But rule of 6 says that having spent all day working together it is unsafe and illegal to go down the pub. So the proposed solution is to have the piss up in the office (as used to be the tradition when I was a junior advertising sales bod in the magazine industry 20 years ago).
If you wish to act selfishly and in defiance of a public health crisis you will contribute to the continuation of this destructive disease to the detriment of the health and economy of our nation
I won't be. It is absolutely legal for more than 6 of us to be in office and factory. My point about others is that the evening down the pub that 5 of us have organised next week will absolutely breech the rule of 6. Because there will be more than 6 people in the pub. "Ah but you won't be socially mixing" says the government. Which as anyone who has ever been in a pub knows is bollocks.
The new rules are a nonsense. The local high schools tip their kids out who all walk home in a large group, albeit a smaller group than then have spent all day in. That is legal and safe But if they start playing football as they cross the park? Apparently they are acting "selfishly and in defiance of a public health crisis".
Its. Bollocks. Mate.
In defence of the government, it is impossible to give advice that is both straightforward and deals correctly with every possible circumstance!
Hardly: "Transmission of the virus in enclosed spaces and close proximity means that we are going to have to reinstate some of the measures previously lifted. You MUST maintain 2m distancing from each other at all times. In addition you must now wear a mask at all times when you inside any building that isn't your home or on public transport and in taxis."
Done. No inconsistencies. No absurdities. Stay the hell away from each other and wear a mask.
No exception for family members? The missus isn't going to be pleased when I tell her she's sleeping on the sofa.
Sorry, 2m distancing outside the home. As opposed to 0m+ at the moment. yes I know its "1m+" but the "+" has meant that so many are just ignoring distancing completely. Outside my daughter's school as one example. "Please stop congregating in large numbers" has been emailed out to parents. Who are ignoring it. On Monday they would be breaking the law if they were in the park or someone's garden, but blocking the pavement outside a school? Education's exempt innit?
I don't think people are going to lose much sleep on the legal consequences of breaking the rule of 6. Who in practical terms is going to enforce it? Besides which people aren't as stupid as the government, they can see the absurdity of what has been put forward.
Let me give you an example. There are several of us leaving my company next month. Ordinarily we'd have a big piss up. But rule of 6 says that having spent all day working together it is unsafe and illegal to go down the pub. So the proposed solution is to have the piss up in the office (as used to be the tradition when I was a junior advertising sales bod in the magazine industry 20 years ago).
If you wish to act selfishly and in defiance of a public health crisis you will contribute to the continuation of this destructive disease to the detriment of the health and economy of our nation
I won't be. It is absolutely legal for more than 6 of us to be in office and factory. My point about others is that the evening down the pub that 5 of us have organised next week will absolutely breech the rule of 6. Because there will be more than 6 people in the pub. "Ah but you won't be socially mixing" says the government. Which as anyone who has ever been in a pub knows is bollocks.
The new rules are a nonsense. The local high schools tip their kids out who all walk home in a large group, albeit a smaller group than then have spent all day in. That is legal and safe But if they start playing football as they cross the park? Apparently they are acting "selfishly and in defiance of a public health crisis".
Its. Bollocks. Mate.
In defence of the government, it is impossible to give advice that is both straightforward and deals correctly with every possible circumstance!
Hardly: "Transmission of the virus in enclosed spaces and close proximity means that we are going to have to reinstate some of the measures previously lifted. You MUST maintain 2m distancing from each other at all times. In addition you must now wear a mask at all times when you inside any building that isn't your home or on public transport and in taxis."
Done. No inconsistencies. No absurdities. Stay the hell away from each other and wear a mask.
No exception for family members? The missus isn't going to be pleased when I tell her she's sleeping on the sofa.
Interesting (and unusual) power dynamic in your household!
The silver lining if you're GOP is you could say the Democrats are just getting their vote out early. But I'd still say this is good thus far for the blue team.
And you can still get Biden at 11/10 to win the State. This is remarkable given that he has a small but steady lead in the polls there.
I got burnt on North Carolina by failing to keep checking the early data totals, they started off well for Clinton but then tailed off.
With the 10x increase in absentee ballots it will be impossible to check this year.
It's no 'gimme' but the point of Pulpstar's post was that the risk level is relatively low. If I were doing a tissue on this event I'd make Biden 4/6, so meeting my 10% threshold comfortably.
Biden is favoured to win the election 75% of the time - that's up from 69% last time I looked.
The math is blissfully simple. He should be 3/1 on. You can back him at 5/4 on (the Party) or 6/5 on (the man himself). You won't often see better betting opportunities than that.
Agreed.
Back in the days when I was punting semi-professionally I generally wanted a 10% edge on any bet. It's 20% plus here, depending on how you calculate it. You don't often see that. A serious punter would not just want to bet but feel they had to.
There's even a tremendous partial hedge available on Betfair - 6/1 on Trump 270-299 EV. That does, of course, leave the electoral college tie uncovered, but the lay Trump and hedge the narrow Trump win must be the best bet available in years.
I made the point earlier in the week that this place has regressed from being a balanced mix to an overwhelming pro EU, anti Boris abbatoir. No problem with that I'm not pro Boris but it makes for very dull, one sided conversation.
I log on 2 or 3 days later and see more of the same in a header from Alastair Meeks.
Mr Smithson this is your site and your prerogative but you might wonder why the number of posters and contributions has fallen.
I think the problem has been that a number of vocal leavers - say @MaxPB, @Casino_Royale, @Richard_Tyndall, @DavidL and myself - have found ourselves in the position of criticising the government over their proposed Internal Markets Bill.
So, I don't think the issue is that Leavers have left the site (are there any that you can think of that were here three months ago, that are not here now?), but more the government is behaving in an incompetent and self defeating manner.
Indeed, to say that I'm suddenly pro-EU because I don't want the government to break the law is absolutely ridiculous.
It is but it's more likely we'll be added to the list of turncoats and traitors (and then subsequently ignored) rather than listened to.
My daughter went to a pizza restaurant on Wednesday night. The restaurant has now been closed as a result of a Covid case or cases being linked back there. No contact yet from track and trace although details were left. Should she: (a) be isolating (and if so should we all be isolating too)? (b) have a test? (c) meet her 84 year old grandma for lunch today as planned?
I am genuinely asking. I have been following this more closely than most, I have been looking online for advice and I really don't know which doesn't say much about government messaging.
I would hold off meeting grandma, it is a bit soon for symptoms to show. Otherwise await T and T.
Restaurants again...
No masks when you are eating. Social groupings. Alcohol. It's hardly surprising. But do we really want to give up on them?
I eat out two or three Times a week, I go at 6:30 because no one else does if dinner or 12:30 for lunch. I’m not sure what I’ll do if others catch on to the idea, but this is spain and peak eating is 14:00 and 21:00 and I don’t see that changing.
The sad thing is that my wife is very conscious that her mother (who is a widow) is really starting to struggle with the lockdown and shielding. She is repeating herself more and more, she is getting more confused and she is not happy. My wife has been trying to get her out more by being a taxi for her so that she is less isolated and the lunch today was a part of that. We will cancel but there are no great solutions to this virus and no cost free options.
Biden is favoured to win the election 75% of the time - that's up from 69% last time I looked.
The math is blissfully simple. He should be 3/1 on. You can back him at 5/4 on (the Party) or 6/5 on (the man himself). You won't often see better betting opportunities than that.
Agreed.
Back in the days when I was punting semi-professionally I generally wanted a 10% edge on any bet. It's 20% plus here, depending on how you calculate it. You don't often see that. A serious punter would not just want to bet but feel they had to.
Excellent post, PTP you are an example to us all. I love the professional punter mentality and we should see more of it on this site.
(Edit: I have my biggest bet - by far - running at the moment: a lay on Trump, mostly back from Jan so at good odds. Well into four figures. )
Articles like that make me want to become a Remainer. Having worked in finance (prior to starting my auto insurance business) for twenty years, including stints at Goldman and managing a six billion dollar mutual fund, I have met many of the players.
I've also argued on this site for us to leave.
The description of the ECB's actions in that piece are deeply misleading, because it had two conflicting requirements baked into its constitution. There was no way to avoid being in breach of its requirements.
Now, you can take action with what it did - and bear in mind that it got minuted sign off from every government in the Eurozone - but you can't criticise it for behaving as it did, without recognising that failure to do so would have also led it to be in breach of its constitution.
Biden is favoured to win the election 75% of the time - that's up from 69% last time I looked.
The math is blissfully simple. He should be 3/1 on. You can back him at 5/4 on (the Party) or 6/5 on (the man himself). You won't often see better betting opportunities than that.
Agreed.
Back in the days when I was punting semi-professionally I generally wanted a 10% edge on any bet. It's 20% plus here, depending on how you calculate it. You don't often see that. A serious punter would not just want to bet but feel they had to.
There's even a tremendous partial hedge available on Betfair - 6/1 on Trump 270-299 EV. That does, of course, leave the electoral college tie uncovered, but the lay Trump and hedge the narrow Trump win must be the best bet available in years.
The sad thing is that my wife is very conscious that her mother (who is a widow) is really starting to struggle with the lockdown and shielding. She is repeating herself more and more, she is getting more confused and she is not happy. My wife has been trying to get her out more by being a taxi for her so that she is less isolated and the lunch today was a part of that. We will cancel but there are no great solutions to this virus and no cost free options.
It is so hard and even cruel, and it is why I get angry when people act selfishly and defiantly against covid public health measures
I made the point earlier in the week that this place has regressed from being a balanced mix to an overwhelming pro EU, anti Boris abbatoir. No problem with that I'm not pro Boris but it makes for very dull, one sided conversation.
I log on 2 or 3 days later and see more of the same in a header from Alastair Meeks.
Mr Smithson this is your site and your prerogative but you might wonder why the number of posters and contributions has fallen.
I think the problem has been that a number of vocal leavers - say @MaxPB, @Casino_Royale, @Richard_Tyndall, @DavidL and myself - have found ourselves in the position of criticising the government over their proposed Internal Markets Bill.
So, I don't think the issue is that Leavers have left the site (are there any that you can think of that were here three months ago, that are not here now?), but more the government is behaving in an incompetent and self defeating manner.
I have been very vocal in condemning Boris on this to the extent I believe he should resign and I absolutely agree HMG is behaving in an incompetent and self defeating manner.
However, I still want the divorce from the EU confirmed at the end of the year and continue as a conservative party member
Well yes. And this is the bit I find most objectionable, it's a "all people who are not with me are against me" attitude. If you don't back us passing a stupid law, then you must be a closet Remainer.
I am not the biggest Boris fan. I thought him better than May, but have never loved the "lovable rogue" image he's created for himself.
But the slipshod way that the Internal Markets Bill has been drafted (being incompatible with our membership of a bunch of international bodeies), that it has been released at a time when the UK is trying to replicate existing tax treaties with individual EU states, make me rather cross.
If you think the EU is being unreasonable, then say so and withdraw from the Withdrawal Agreement. Don't attempt to make domestic law incompatible with Treaty Obligations. Because that's just being a wanker.
Also, the closest Remainers are more likely to be the ones supporting it since such madness is far more likely to blow up the UK's reputation and ability to make a success of Brexit, potentially catapulting back into the EU out of desperation (Euro, EU army, social and fiscal union, crime & justice increasingly centralised, full federalis, free blue and gold star flags for kids, the works..) in less than 10 years.
You want British independence to stick?
You have to do it sensibly, sustainably and moderately so it beds in safely and a new consensus is built.
My daughter went to a pizza restaurant in Glasgow on Wednesday night with friends. The restaurant has now been closed as a result of a Covid case or cases being linked back there. No contact yet from track and trace although details were left. Should she: (a) be isolating (and if so should we all be isolating too)? (b) have a test? (c) meet her 84 year old grandma for lunch today as planned?
I am genuinely asking. I have been following this more closely than most, I have been looking online for advice and I really don't know which doesn't say much about government messaging.
The problem with CV19 is that you are most infectious before you have symptoms. So I'd go with No, Yes, No.
She is explicitly not meeting the criteria for having a test. One of the government's complaints (albeit they are probably making up figures of the extent to fit to capacity limitatations) is that too many people are going for tests who aren't eligible.
All she knows, until contacted by test and trace (which will probably never happen - it's unlikely that the source of the outbreak will have been diners on Wednesday night!) is that she has been in a restaurant which has a link to a number of COVID cases in the recent past.
My understanding is that Test and Trace will only contact people who have been in a source venue during relevant time periods, and might therefore be at risk of having come into contact with infected individuals. The exception might be if cases have been linked back to members of staff, obviously.
The sad thing is that my wife is very conscious that her mother (who is a widow) is really starting to struggle with the lockdown and shielding. She is repeating herself more and more, she is getting more confused and she is not happy. My wife has been trying to get her out more by being a taxi for her so that she is less isolated and the lunch today was a part of that. We will cancel but there are no great solutions to this virus and no cost free options.
Interesting but a little lop sided. Mr Meeks does not give enough credit for the fact that overwhelmingly UK people are moderate centrists and a fortiori so are a good number of Brexit voters.
A decent comparison is Scottish nationalism. They are very like Brexit voters - moderate, decent, tolerant, filled with ideals and principle, wedded to long term solutions and the history of national identity spurring them on to moderate but deeply held political conviction. For myself I agree with their Brexiteer mirror images, and disagree with the SNP.
For those who genuinely preferred UK independence to being in the EU there was no choice but to vote for and with all sorts of oddities - naturally. Just as moderate Scottish independence supporters have no choice but to support the SNP with all its evasions, contradictions and weaknesses.
Mr Meeks makes good and interesting points but his argument is not helped by partisan caricature.
Yes. One of the main reasons for voting Leave among people who I've spoken to was simply the £350m for the NHS. Many of them didn't have particularly strong feelings either way about the EU or immigration and didn't know or care about things like free trade.
Christ, the cynical nastiness of that NHS shit and the drooling stupidity of those duped by it.
Let's confiscate all the property of the Jews and give the proceeds to the NHS. Let's reintroduce hanging and give the money we spend on life imprisonment to the NHS.
Willing the end is willing the means. In hindsight (in my case, others saw this at the time) the proper response to the referendum was OK I'd quite like in some ways to leave the EU, but not if it entails my allying myself in any way with this parcel of shits.
That's a bit harsh. Many people simply don't care very much about politics and therefore aren't prepared to devote much brain space to it, even if they are reasonably smart in other areas of life. Their reasoning doesn't go much further than: "Give £350 to the NHS instead of the EU? Yes, that sounds like a good idea. The NHS certainly needs it!"
Yes, it was irresponsible of people not to think more about the consequences of their vote, but the main blame lies with the people who deceived them. And one thing people dislike very much is being deceived, hence the efforts currently underway to reassign the blame for the upcoming chaos.
The sad thing is that my wife is very conscious that her mother (who is a widow) is really starting to struggle with the lockdown and shielding. She is repeating herself more and more, she is getting more confused and she is not happy. My wife has been trying to get her out more by being a taxi for her so that she is less isolated and the lunch today was a part of that. We will cancel but there are no great solutions to this virus and no cost free options.
Yes, it is sad and difficult. I would think it reasonable to meet, minus grand daughter.
2 covid cases again at my Mother in Laws nursing home, after 6 weeks clear, so all confined to rooms again.
Biden is favoured to win the election 75% of the time - that's up from 69% last time I looked.
The math is blissfully simple. He should be 3/1 on. You can back him at 5/4 on (the Party) or 6/5 on (the man himself). You won't often see better betting opportunities than that.
Agreed.
Back in the days when I was punting semi-professionally I generally wanted a 10% edge on any bet. It's 20% plus here, depending on how you calculate it. You don't often see that. A serious punter would not just want to bet but feel they had to.
Excellent post, PTP you are an example to us all. I love the professional punter mentality and we should see more of it on this site.
(Edit: I have my biggest bet - by far - running at the moment: a lay on Trump, mostly back from Jan so at good odds. Well into four figures. )
Wow, a fan! Thank you kind Sir. Made my day.
Time to go do something useful. Play nicely everyone.
I made the point earlier in the week that this place has regressed from being a balanced mix to an overwhelming pro EU, anti Boris abbatoir. No problem with that I'm not pro Boris but it makes for very dull, one sided conversation.
I log on 2 or 3 days later and see more of the same in a header from Alastair Meeks.
Mr Smithson this is your site and your prerogative but you might wonder why the number of posters and contributions has fallen.
I think the problem has been that a number of vocal leavers - say @MaxPB, @Casino_Royale, @Richard_Tyndall, @DavidL and myself - have found ourselves in the position of criticising the government over their proposed Internal Markets Bill.
So, I don't think the issue is that Leavers have left the site (are there any that you can think of that were here three months ago, that are not here now?), but more the government is behaving in an incompetent and self defeating manner.
I have been very vocal in condemning Boris on this to the extent I believe he should resign and I absolutely agree HMG is behaving in an incompetent and self defeating manner.
However, I still want the divorce from the EU confirmed at the end of the year and continue as a conservative party member
Well yes. And this is the bit I find most objectionable, it's a "all people who are not with me are against me" attitude. If you don't back us passing a stupid law, then you must be a closet Remainer.
I am not the biggest Boris fan. I thought him better than May, but have never loved the "lovable rogue" image he's created for himself.
But the slipshod way that the Internal Markets Bill has been drafted (being incompatible with our membership of a bunch of international bodeies), that it has been released at a time when the UK is trying to replicate existing tax treaties with individual EU states, make me rather cross.
If you think the EU is being unreasonable, then say so and withdraw from the Withdrawal Agreement. Don't attempt to make domestic law incompatible with Treaty Obligations. Because that's just being a wanker.
Also, the closest Remainers are more likely to be the ones supporting it since such madness is far more likely to blow up the UK's reputation and ability to make a success of Brexit, potentially catapulting back into the EU out of desperation (Euro, EU army, social and fiscal union, crime & justice increasingly centralised, full federalis, free blue and gold star flags for kids, the works..) in less than 10 years.
You want British independence to stick?
You have to do it sensibly, sustainably and moderately so it beds in safely and a new consensus is built.
I don't think we'll end up back in the EU. But I agree that there are a number of Remainers rubbing their hands at the fact that the UK has managed to screw up relations with the rest of the world.
@DavidL probably better not to meet Grandma if possible. Better safe than sorry!
Have the discharged you yet or are you waiting on the consultant and pharmacy?
Consultant this morning has said I can go home today. I guess I now have to let the cogs turn (very slowly)!
My news was far better than expected, the tumors are shrinking which was a surprise as they had led me to expect only spread limitation. The negative is I now have a thrombosis in the abdomen, apparently not unusual, and have to inject myself Every day for the next three months.
Thinking about the current situation I'm a bit confused.
I thought the withdrawal agreement was based upon a trade deal being struck? Is this not the case?
Of course not, particularly the NI Ireland backstop. The legal provisions of the withdrawal agreement were based upon a deal NOT being struck. That was the whole point of it! And why the EU insisted on it being sorted before commencing trade negotiations.
Of course the political declaration was linked to future trade deals, in the sense that it was designed to create a framework for those talks. But if those talks break down, it doesn't invalidate the legal provisions.
Jesus Christ, i wonder if some people follow this at all!!!
I think the real problem is this: Boris wants a deal and would sorely like to seal this one. But, he knows that compromising on State Aid would precipitate Cummings resignation and he can't survive as PM without him.
So he's stuck. He'll follow the path of least resistance in the short-term. That means No Deal, I'm afraid, because it kicks the problem on 4 months and he can hope something turns up in the meantime and bullshit his way through.
The only alternative I can think of is that he feels at serious risk of being ejected from office by his MPs so he realises he has to act now or lose in ignominy.
Interesting but a little lop sided. Mr Meeks does not give enough credit for the fact that overwhelmingly UK people are moderate centrists and a fortiori so are a good number of Brexit voters.
A decent comparison is Scottish nationalism. They are very like Brexit voters - moderate, decent, tolerant, filled with ideals and principle, wedded to long term solutions and the history of national identity spurring them on to moderate but deeply held political conviction. For myself I agree with their Brexiteer mirror images, and disagree with the SNP.
For those who genuinely preferred UK independence to being in the EU there was no choice but to vote for and with all sorts of oddities - naturally. Just as moderate Scottish independence supporters have no choice but to support the SNP with all its evasions, contradictions and weaknesses.
Mr Meeks makes good and interesting points but his argument is not helped by partisan caricature.
I don't think the SNP comparison is valid because while SNP voters are spread across the spectrum on social issues like immigration, law and order, feminism etc (and I am guessing are more liberal than Unionists on average given the difference in age profile) there is overwhelming evidence that Leave voters skew sharply to the right on these questions (eg https://britainthinks.com/pdfs/Leavers-and-Remainers-true-tribes-or-trite-tropes-Autosaved.pdf). For instance, the best predictor of Leave vs Remain is views on the death penalty. Leavers are not, on average, centrist moderates who just happen to dislike the EU, although of course some are.
My contention is simply this: Anyone who thinks that millions of UK people are extremists is just wrong. They aren't. Overwhelmingly they are moderates. Therefore Brexit supporters are by and large moderates or centrists. All our analysis must take account of this boring logic and ignoring it is to declare war on reality. Mr Meeks is a prime example of a first rate commentator vitiated by this weakness.
I guess it depends how you define extremist. There are 65 million people in the UK, I would guess that millions of them have opinions that some people on here would class as extreme. It's certainly not the case that Leave voters have an opinion profile that matches the distribution of the population as a whole: they skew sharply to the right on a whole range of issues (eg Leave voters are much more likely to think that wolf whistling is OK according to polling - I wonder if you think that is an extremist view?). Independence supporters in Scotland simply don't have the same characteristics on average, so I think your comparison there is way off.
Interesting but a little lop sided. Mr Meeks does not give enough credit for the fact that overwhelmingly UK people are moderate centrists and a fortiori so are a good number of Brexit voters.
A decent comparison is Scottish nationalism. They are very like Brexit voters - moderate, decent, tolerant, filled with ideals and principle, wedded to long term solutions and the history of national identity spurring them on to moderate but deeply held political conviction. For myself I agree with their Brexiteer mirror images, and disagree with the SNP.
For those who genuinely preferred UK independence to being in the EU there was no choice but to vote for and with all sorts of oddities - naturally. Just as moderate Scottish independence supporters have no choice but to support the SNP with all its evasions, contradictions and weaknesses.
Mr Meeks makes good and interesting points but his argument is not helped by partisan caricature.
Yes. One of the main reasons for voting Leave among people who I've spoken to was simply the £350m for the NHS. Many of them didn't have particularly strong feelings either way about the EU or immigration and didn't know or care about things like free trade.
Christ, the cynical nastiness of that NHS shit and the drooling stupidity of those duped by it.
Let's confiscate all the property of the Jews and give the proceeds to the NHS. Let's reintroduce hanging and give the money we spend on life imprisonment to the NHS.
Willing the end is willing the means. In hindsight (in my case, others saw this at the time) the proper response to the referendum was OK I'd quite like in some ways to leave the EU, but not if it entails my allying myself in any way with this parcel of shits.
That's a bit harsh. Many people simply don't care very much about politics and therefore aren't prepared to devote much brain space to it, even if they are reasonably smart in other areas of life. Their reasoning doesn't go much further than: "Give £350 to the NHS instead of the EU? Yes, that sounds like a good idea. The NHS certainly needs it!"
Yes, it was irresponsible of people not to think more about the consequences of their vote, but the main blame lies with the people who deceived them. And one thing people dislike very much is being deceived, hence the efforts currently underway to reassign the blame for the upcoming chaos.
The biggest divide in the country is between those of us interested in the intricacies, and the general public who only pay real attention for a few weeks at election times. We are vastly different tribes than the perceived Leavers vs Remainers or Left vs Right.
My daughter went to a pizza restaurant in Glasgow on Wednesday night with friends. The restaurant has now been closed as a result of a Covid case or cases being linked back there. No contact yet from track and trace although details were left. Should she: (a) be isolating (and if so should we all be isolating too)? (b) have a test? (c) meet her 84 year old grandma for lunch today as planned?
I am genuinely asking. I have been following this more closely than most, I have been looking online for advice and I really don't know which doesn't say much about government messaging.
a) no b) no, as she has no symptoms c) Depends on grandma. Explain full facts to her and let her decide. If I were grandma I`d want to see my granddaugher and put quality of life over quantity at the age of 84.
We've made the decision for her. It's not just her. If anything happened to grandma my daughter would find that almost impossible to live with.
Switzerland has cantons in between the voters and the laws, to pass a law you need some minimum agreement at the level of the cantons. Is Switzerland not a democracy?
Biden is favoured to win the election 75% of the time - that's up from 69% last time I looked.
The math is blissfully simple. He should be 3/1 on. You can back him at 5/4 on (the Party) or 6/5 on (the man himself). You won't often see better betting opportunities than that.
I think Con most seats at the last election was the biggest short price favourite I've seen (outside of SNP constituency bets in 2015)
Switzerland has cantons in between the voters and the laws, to pass a law you need some minimum agreement at the level of the cantons. Is Switzerland not a democracy?
Switzerland is a democracy.
The UK is not.
? You a fan of direct democracy then? Look where that has got us.
My daughter went to a pizza restaurant in Glasgow on Wednesday night with friends. The restaurant has now been closed as a result of a Covid case or cases being linked back there. No contact yet from track and trace although details were left. Should she: (a) be isolating (and if so should we all be isolating too)? (b) have a test? (c) meet her 84 year old grandma for lunch today as planned?
I am genuinely asking. I have been following this more closely than most, I have been looking online for advice and I really don't know which doesn't say much about government messaging.
a) no b) no, as she has no symptoms c) Depends on grandma. Explain full facts to her and let her decide. If I were grandma I`d want to see my granddaugher and put quality of life over quantity at the age of 84.
We've made the decision for her. It's not just her. If anything happened to grandma my daughter would find that almost impossible to live with.
Oh, in that case DEFINITELY don`t visit grandma. I assumed from your original post that grandaughter wanted to attend.
I made the point earlier in the week that this place has regressed from being a balanced mix to an overwhelming pro EU, anti Boris abbatoir. No problem with that I'm not pro Boris but it makes for very dull, one sided conversation.
I log on 2 or 3 days later and see more of the same in a header from Alastair Meeks.
Mr Smithson this is your site and your prerogative but you might wonder why the number of posters and contributions has fallen.
I think the problem has been that a number of vocal leavers - say @MaxPB, @Casino_Royale, @Richard_Tyndall, @DavidL and myself - have found ourselves in the position of criticising the government over their proposed Internal Markets Bill.
So, I don't think the issue is that Leavers have left the site (are there any that you can think of that were here three months ago, that are not here now?), but more the government is behaving in an incompetent and self defeating manner.
I have been very vocal in condemning Boris on this to the extent I believe he should resign and I absolutely agree HMG is behaving in an incompetent and self defeating manner.
However, I still want the divorce from the EU confirmed at the end of the year and continue as a conservative party member
Well yes. And this is the bit I find most objectionable, it's a "all people who are not with me are against me" attitude. If you don't back us passing a stupid law, then you must be a closet Remainer.
I am not the biggest Boris fan. I thought him better than May, but have never loved the "lovable rogue" image he's created for himself.
But the slipshod way that the Internal Markets Bill has been drafted (being incompatible with our membership of a bunch of international bodeies), that it has been released at a time when the UK is trying to replicate existing tax treaties with individual EU states, make me rather cross.
If you think the EU is being unreasonable, then say so and withdraw from the Withdrawal Agreement. Don't attempt to make domestic law incompatible with Treaty Obligations. Because that's just being a wanker.
Also, the closest Remainers are more likely to be the ones supporting it since such madness is far more likely to blow up the UK's reputation and ability to make a success of Brexit, potentially catapulting back into the EU out of desperation (Euro, EU army, social and fiscal union, crime & justice increasingly centralised, full federalis, free blue and gold star flags for kids, the works..) in less than 10 years.
You want British independence to stick?
You have to do it sensibly, sustainably and moderately so it beds in safely and a new consensus is built.
I don't think we'll end up back in the EU. But I agree that there are a number of Remainers rubbing their hands at the fact that the UK has managed to screw up relations with the rest of the world.
Oh, we could.
We certainly could.
Up until last week I thought that wouldn't happen (we'd build a full FTA, Starmer would probably add bits to it in future and that would be that) but as of this week I could see everything turning on its head quickly if we don't change course soon.
@DavidL probably better not to meet Grandma if possible. Better safe than sorry!
Have the discharged you yet or are you waiting on the consultant and pharmacy?
Consultant this morning has said I can go home today. I guess I now have to let the cogs turn (very slowly)!
My news was far better than expected, the tumors are shrinking which was a surprise as they had led me to expect only spread limitation. The negative is I now have a thrombosis in the abdomen, apparently not unusual, and have to inject myself Every day for the next three months.
I had to inject myself with blood thinners for 4 weeks after my bowel surgery. Is it the same stuff for you? They’re not too bad.
Great news on the tumours though! Fingers crossed they keep shrinking.
I made the point earlier in the week that this place has regressed from being a balanced mix to an overwhelming pro EU, anti Boris abbatoir. No problem with that I'm not pro Boris but it makes for very dull, one sided conversation.
I log on 2 or 3 days later and see more of the same in a header from Alastair Meeks.
Mr Smithson this is your site and your prerogative but you might wonder why the number of posters and contributions has fallen.
I think the problem has been that a number of vocal leavers - say @MaxPB, @Casino_Royale, @Richard_Tyndall, @DavidL and myself - have found ourselves in the position of criticising the government over their proposed Internal Markets Bill.
So, I don't think the issue is that Leavers have left the site (are there any that you can think of that were here three months ago, that are not here now?), but more the government is behaving in an incompetent and self defeating manner.
I have been very vocal in condemning Boris on this to the extent I believe he should resign and I absolutely agree HMG is behaving in an incompetent and self defeating manner.
However, I still want the divorce from the EU confirmed at the end of the year and continue as a conservative party member
Well yes. And this is the bit I find most objectionable, it's a "all people who are not with me are against me" attitude. If you don't back us passing a stupid law, then you must be a closet Remainer.
I am not the biggest Boris fan. I thought him better than May, but have never loved the "lovable rogue" image he's created for himself.
But the slipshod way that the Internal Markets Bill has been drafted (being incompatible with our membership of a bunch of international bodeies), that it has been released at a time when the UK is trying to replicate existing tax treaties with individual EU states, make me rather cross.
If you think the EU is being unreasonable, then say so and withdraw from the Withdrawal Agreement. Don't attempt to make domestic law incompatible with Treaty Obligations. Because that's just being a wanker.
Also, the closest Remainers are more likely to be the ones supporting it since such madness is far more likely to blow up the UK's reputation and ability to make a success of Brexit, potentially catapulting back into the EU out of desperation (Euro, EU army, social and fiscal union, crime & justice increasingly centralised, full federalis, free blue and gold star flags for kids, the works..) in less than 10 years.
You want British independence to stick?
You have to do it sensibly, sustainably and moderately so it beds in safely and a new consensus is built.
I don't think we'll end up back in the EU. But I agree that there are a number of Remainers rubbing their hands at the fact that the UK has managed to screw up relations with the rest of the world.
I wouldn't say I am rubbing my hands but I would rather that Brexit failed quickly than slowly. I don't believe it can succeed so I am not going to pretend that I am hoping it will be a success, in the same way that I am not going to pretend that I wished Santa was real. Obviously, I think it is desperately sad that our country's reputation and prosperity is being trashed in this way, but it's not a surprise to me that it is happening since as I have explained before I think it is a logical consequence of the Brexit vote and the Tory decision to leave the single market.
Thinking about the current situation I'm a bit confused.
I thought the withdrawal agreement was based upon a trade deal being struck? Is this not the case?
Of course not, particularly the NI Ireland backstop. The legal provisions of the withdrawal agreement were based upon a deal NOT being struck. That was the whole point of it! And why the EU insisted on it being sorted before commencing trade negotiations.
Of course the political declaration was linked to future trade deals, in the sense that it was designed to create a framework for those talks. But if those talks break down, it doesn't invalidate the legal provisions.
Jesus Christ, i wonder if some people follow this at all!!!
Not following or understanding doesnt stop them having strong opinions and being critical of others views!
I made the point earlier in the week that this place has regressed from being a balanced mix to an overwhelming pro EU, anti Boris abbatoir. No problem with that I'm not pro Boris but it makes for very dull, one sided conversation.
I log on 2 or 3 days later and see more of the same in a header from Alastair Meeks.
Mr Smithson this is your site and your prerogative but you might wonder why the number of posters and contributions has fallen.
I think the problem has been that a number of vocal leavers - say @MaxPB, @Casino_Royale, @Richard_Tyndall, @DavidL and myself - have found ourselves in the position of criticising the government over their proposed Internal Markets Bill.
So, I don't think the issue is that Leavers have left the site (are there any that you can think of that were here three months ago, that are not here now?), but more the government is behaving in an incompetent and self defeating manner.
I have been very vocal in condemning Boris on this to the extent I believe he should resign and I absolutely agree HMG is behaving in an incompetent and self defeating manner.
However, I still want the divorce from the EU confirmed at the end of the year and continue as a conservative party member
Well yes. And this is the bit I find most objectionable, it's a "all people who are not with me are against me" attitude. If you don't back us passing a stupid law, then you must be a closet Remainer.
I am not the biggest Boris fan. I thought him better than May, but have never loved the "lovable rogue" image he's created for himself.
But the slipshod way that the Internal Markets Bill has been drafted (being incompatible with our membership of a bunch of international bodeies), that it has been released at a time when the UK is trying to replicate existing tax treaties with individual EU states, make me rather cross.
If you think the EU is being unreasonable, then say so and withdraw from the Withdrawal Agreement. Don't attempt to make domestic law incompatible with Treaty Obligations. Because that's just being a wanker.
Also, the closest Remainers are more likely to be the ones supporting it since such madness is far more likely to blow up the UK's reputation and ability to make a success of Brexit, potentially catapulting back into the EU out of desperation (Euro, EU army, social and fiscal union, crime & justice increasingly centralised, full federalis, free blue and gold star flags for kids, the works..) in less than 10 years.
You want British independence to stick?
You have to do it sensibly, sustainably and moderately so it beds in safely and a new consensus is built.
There is no sensible, sustainable and moderate Brexit. The sensible ones are simply not sustainable. The extreme position is always in the driving seat, as @AlastairMeeks covers in the header. That goes for Rejoiners too. Quasi-EEA will be in manifestos next GE, I expect, but seen by both Leavers and Remainers as a way back to full membership.
Thinking about the current situation I'm a bit confused.
I thought the withdrawal agreement was based upon a trade deal being struck? Is this not the case?
No it isn’t.
So how is the deal that was signed any different to the backstop that May had negotiated?
Sigh.
The NI Protocol was intended to protect the Good Friday Agreement. in the event of a no deal outcome by preventing the establishment of a hard border infrastructure on the island of Ireland. The EU's original proposal was for Northern Ireland to effectively stay within the SIngle Market and customs union and subject to EU jurisdiction, with the customs border effectively transferred to the Irish Sea. May declared that unacceptable, stating that no UK Prime Minister could ever sign up to that and negotiated an alternative. It was also completely unacceptable to the DUP.
May's proposal was that in the event of no deal the whole of the UK would stay within the customs union (although i believe with NI also staying within the Single Market). The quid pro quo was that the UK wouldn't have to pay anything for this. This was rejected by Brexiteers because they thought it would restrict the UK's ability to do trade deals outside of the EU (and would still subject the UK as a whole to a measure of ECJ oversight). They didn't accept that the quid pro quo would incentivise the EU not to make the arrangements permanent.
Having had this rejected, Boris basically then signed up to the EU's original proposal (border in the Irish Sea), with some token safeguards which involved the ongoing consent of the Northern Irish people.
He's now decided that he agrees with May that "no PM could sign up to a border in the Irish Sea", even though he was told at the time that that was explicitly what he was doing, and is trying to repudiate the whole agreement. Creating the whole problem of the Irish border and breaches of GFA all over again.
@DavidL probably better not to meet Grandma if possible. Better safe than sorry!
Have the discharged you yet or are you waiting on the consultant and pharmacy?
Consultant this morning has said I can go home today. I guess I now have to let the cogs turn (very slowly)!
My news was far better than expected, the tumors are shrinking which was a surprise as they had led me to expect only spread limitation. The negative is I now have a thrombosis in the abdomen, apparently not unusual, and have to inject myself Every day for the next three months.
I had to inject myself with blood thinners for 4 weeks after my bowel surgery. Is it the same stuff for you? They’re not too bad.
Great news on the tumours though! Fingers crossed they keep shrinking.
A form of heparin BEMIPARINA 359 euros worth ! I pay 4.24
Biden is favoured to win the election 75% of the time - that's up from 69% last time I looked.
The math is blissfully simple. He should be 3/1 on. You can back him at 5/4 on (the Party) or 6/5 on (the man himself). You won't often see better betting opportunities than that.
Agreed.
Back in the days when I was punting semi-professionally I generally wanted a 10% edge on any bet. It's 20% plus here, depending on how you calculate it. You don't often see that. A serious punter would not just want to bet but feel they had to.
There's even a tremendous partial hedge available on Betfair - 6/1 on Trump 270-299 EV. That does, of course, leave the electoral college tie uncovered, but the lay Trump and hedge the narrow Trump win must be the best bet available in years.
Noted with thanks and acted upon, Nigel.
You're welcome (though for the sake of full disclosure, it was at briefly at 7.6 last night when I stumbled across it). This is by some way my biggest bet since Obama's first win. I got burned on Clinton last time, but only for small amounts.
I think the real problem is this: Boris wants a deal and would sorely like to seal this one. But, he knows that compromising on State Aid would precipitate Cummings resignation and he can't survive as PM without him.
So he's stuck. He'll follow the path of least resistance in the short-term. That means No Deal, I'm afraid, because it kicks the problem on 4 months and he can hope something turns up in the meantime and bullshit his way through.
The only alternative I can think of is that he feels at serious risk of being ejected from office by his MPs so he realises he has to act now or lose in ignominy.
Not holding my breath on that one.
Boris has essentially 2 choices.
He can go down the road of no deal which means that the default provisions of the WA will apply but these are very limited and would leave large areas of trade not covered at all. There would be some disruption and no doubt further deals and arrangements over time but we could live with this and, frankly, we have more important things to worry about.
Or he can agree a deal with LPF provisions which, let's face it, we have tended to apply a lot more rigorously than almost anyone else in the EU anyway.
I would have been tempted by the first but gone for the second. What we should not do (even although we can) is trash our reputation for reliability and trust by seeking to disapply the WA signed earlier this year. As I said yesterday the price is far too high.
I may also say that Boris and or Cummings has contrived to engage where his troops are once again marching steeply uphill against fortified emplacements. I really don't get why he did not select more even territory, a level playing field, even.
I made the point earlier in the week that this place has regressed from being a balanced mix to an overwhelming pro EU, anti Boris abbatoir. No problem with that I'm not pro Boris but it makes for very dull, one sided conversation.
I log on 2 or 3 days later and see more of the same in a header from Alastair Meeks.
Mr Smithson this is your site and your prerogative but you might wonder why the number of posters and contributions has fallen.
I think the problem has been that a number of vocal leavers - say @MaxPB, @Casino_Royale, @Richard_Tyndall, @DavidL and myself - have found ourselves in the position of criticising the government over their proposed Internal Markets Bill.
So, I don't think the issue is that Leavers have left the site (are there any that you can think of that were here three months ago, that are not here now?), but more the government is behaving in an incompetent and self defeating manner.
I have been very vocal in condemning Boris on this to the extent I believe he should resign and I absolutely agree HMG is behaving in an incompetent and self defeating manner.
However, I still want the divorce from the EU confirmed at the end of the year and continue as a conservative party member
Well yes. And this is the bit I find most objectionable, it's a "all people who are not with me are against me" attitude. If you don't back us passing a stupid law, then you must be a closet Remainer.
I am not the biggest Boris fan. I thought him better than May, but have never loved the "lovable rogue" image he's created for himself.
But the slipshod way that the Internal Markets Bill has been drafted (being incompatible with our membership of a bunch of international bodeies), that it has been released at a time when the UK is trying to replicate existing tax treaties with individual EU states, make me rather cross.
If you think the EU is being unreasonable, then say so and withdraw from the Withdrawal Agreement. Don't attempt to make domestic law incompatible with Treaty Obligations. Because that's just being a wanker.
Also, the closest Remainers are more likely to be the ones supporting it since such madness is far more likely to blow up the UK's reputation and ability to make a success of Brexit, potentially catapulting back into the EU out of desperation (Euro, EU army, social and fiscal union, crime & justice increasingly centralised, full federalis, free blue and gold star flags for kids, the works..) in less than 10 years.
You want British independence to stick?
You have to do it sensibly, sustainably and moderately so it beds in safely and a new consensus is built.
There is no sensible, sustainable and moderate Brexit. The sensible ones are simply not sustainable. The extreme position is always in the driving seat, as @AlastairMeeks covers in the header. That goes for Rejoiners too. Quasi-EEA will be in manifestos next GE, I expect, but seen by both Leavers and Remainers as a way back to full membership.
Completely disagree. This is just confirmation bias on your part.
A good close collaborative FTA with the EU is there *RIGHT NOW* for the taking.
It needs 6-18 months of transition and bedding in and then we're all set to go.
You don't want it to be of course (which is why you're secretly glad that a few key loons in Government are trying to blow it up) but that's quite a separate matter.
@DavidL probably better not to meet Grandma if possible. Better safe than sorry!
Have the discharged you yet or are you waiting on the consultant and pharmacy?
Consultant this morning has said I can go home today. I guess I now have to let the cogs turn (very slowly)!
My news was far better than expected, the tumors are shrinking which was a surprise as they had led me to expect only spread limitation. The negative is I now have a thrombosis in the abdomen, apparently not unusual, and have to inject myself Every day for the next three months.
I had to inject myself with blood thinners for 4 weeks after my bowel surgery. Is it the same stuff for you? They’re not too bad.
Great news on the tumours though! Fingers crossed they keep shrinking.
A form of heparin BEMIPARINA 359 euros worth ! I pay 4.24
Yes great news.
My cousin with Breast Ca had soft tissue metastases 4 years ago, but also a great response to chemo, and looks her usual self. Not out of the woods, but great news. Where there is life there is hope.
I made the point earlier in the week that this place has regressed from being a balanced mix to an overwhelming pro EU, anti Boris abbatoir. No problem with that I'm not pro Boris but it makes for very dull, one sided conversation.
I log on 2 or 3 days later and see more of the same in a header from Alastair Meeks.
Mr Smithson this is your site and your prerogative but you might wonder why the number of posters and contributions has fallen.
I think the problem has been that a number of vocal leavers - say @MaxPB, @Casino_Royale, @Richard_Tyndall, @DavidL and myself - have found ourselves in the position of criticising the government over their proposed Internal Markets Bill.
So, I don't think the issue is that Leavers have left the site (are there any that you can think of that were here three months ago, that are not here now?), but more the government is behaving in an incompetent and self defeating manner.
I have been very vocal in condemning Boris on this to the extent I believe he should resign and I absolutely agree HMG is behaving in an incompetent and self defeating manner.
However, I still want the divorce from the EU confirmed at the end of the year and continue as a conservative party member
Well yes. And this is the bit I find most objectionable, it's a "all people who are not with me are against me" attitude. If you don't back us passing a stupid law, then you must be a closet Remainer.
I am not the biggest Boris fan. I thought him better than May, but have never loved the "lovable rogue" image he's created for himself.
But the slipshod way that the Internal Markets Bill has been drafted (being incompatible with our membership of a bunch of international bodeies), that it has been released at a time when the UK is trying to replicate existing tax treaties with individual EU states, make me rather cross.
If you think the EU is being unreasonable, then say so and withdraw from the Withdrawal Agreement. Don't attempt to make domestic law incompatible with Treaty Obligations. Because that's just being a wanker.
Also, the closest Remainers are more likely to be the ones supporting it since such madness is far more likely to blow up the UK's reputation and ability to make a success of Brexit, potentially catapulting back into the EU out of desperation (Euro, EU army, social and fiscal union, crime & justice increasingly centralised, full federalis, free blue and gold star flags for kids, the works..) in less than 10 years.
You want British independence to stick?
You have to do it sensibly, sustainably and moderately so it beds in safely and a new consensus is built.
I don't think we'll end up back in the EU. But I agree that there are a number of Remainers rubbing their hands at the fact that the UK has managed to screw up relations with the rest of the world.
I would have thought myself to have been guilty of that in the event. But as it has come to pass I am not.
I held out the hope that the whole project could be curtailed, but on Johnson's magnificent victory I realised the game was up. I have accepted we have left. Little will convince me it was a great idea, but we are where we are.
I am nonetheless troubled that it is now evident even enthusiastic Leavers weren't entirely sure, for what they were enthusiastic. It thus frustrates me when our trading relationship with the rest of the world looks bleak the enthusiasts then decide to apportion blame for why we left. It was Blair! It was Starmer! No! Get a grip, get a deal. If it is necessary extend the transition period, use Covid as a cover if needed. My childrens' futures depend on it.
MoM GDP up 6.6%, UK economy now 11.7% smaller than in Feb. Recovery looks extremely V shaped. We're on track to recover around 95% of GDP before the end of the year, even with this new lockdown.
Max, can you give a source for that? Is that not somewhat less of a recovery than your office was forecasting?
Not significantly different, we expect August to be better and then September to be quite significantly worse but still positive and then Q4 to be slightly negative overall.
Overall economic capacity will be hit in mid October IMO and then the gains from there will have to be organic rather than recovering what has been lost.
I made the point earlier in the week that this place has regressed from being a balanced mix to an overwhelming pro EU, anti Boris abbatoir. No problem with that I'm not pro Boris but it makes for very dull, one sided conversation.
I log on 2 or 3 days later and see more of the same in a header from Alastair Meeks.
Mr Smithson this is your site and your prerogative but you might wonder why the number of posters and contributions has fallen.
I think the problem has been that a number of vocal leavers - say @MaxPB, @Casino_Royale, @Richard_Tyndall, @DavidL and myself - have found ourselves in the position of criticising the government over their proposed Internal Markets Bill.
So, I don't think the issue is that Leavers have left the site (are there any that you can think of that were here three months ago, that are not here now?), but more the government is behaving in an incompetent and self defeating manner.
I have been very vocal in condemning Boris on this to the extent I believe he should resign and I absolutely agree HMG is behaving in an incompetent and self defeating manner.
However, I still want the divorce from the EU confirmed at the end of the year and continue as a conservative party member
Well yes. And this is the bit I find most objectionable, it's a "all people who are not with me are against me" attitude. If you don't back us passing a stupid law, then you must be a closet Remainer.
I am not the biggest Boris fan. I thought him better than May, but have never loved the "lovable rogue" image he's created for himself.
But the slipshod way that the Internal Markets Bill has been drafted (being incompatible with our membership of a bunch of international bodeies), that it has been released at a time when the UK is trying to replicate existing tax treaties with individual EU states, make me rather cross.
If you think the EU is being unreasonable, then say so and withdraw from the Withdrawal Agreement. Don't attempt to make domestic law incompatible with Treaty Obligations. Because that's just being a wanker.
Also, the closest Remainers are more likely to be the ones supporting it since such madness is far more likely to blow up the UK's reputation and ability to make a success of Brexit, potentially catapulting back into the EU out of desperation (Euro, EU army, social and fiscal union, crime & justice increasingly centralised, full federalis, free blue and gold star flags for kids, the works..) in less than 10 years.
You want British independence to stick?
You have to do it sensibly, sustainably and moderately so it beds in safely and a new consensus is built.
Moonshot Boris doesn't do sensible, sustainable or moderate. And is advised by a Leninist in a hurry.
What part of our vassal state-age are you willing to retain in order to get a deal? 🤓
I want an amicable divorce but if not it will be no deal
I don't think you (or anyone) should be bullied here - you are of course entitled to belong to any party you like. But I recognise a mirror of myself - you waver from time to time, but basically alweays find a reason to stay loyal in the end.
In a marriage, that's an excellent quality. As a party member, I have occasionally had doubts (in my case during latter-day Tony, much as I like his style and intellect). But we all jhave to decide these things for ourselves.
I made the point earlier in the week that this place has regressed from being a balanced mix to an overwhelming pro EU, anti Boris abbatoir. No problem with that I'm not pro Boris but it makes for very dull, one sided conversation.
I log on 2 or 3 days later and see more of the same in a header from Alastair Meeks.
Mr Smithson this is your site and your prerogative but you might wonder why the number of posters and contributions has fallen.
I think the problem has been that a number of vocal leavers - say @MaxPB, @Casino_Royale, @Richard_Tyndall, @DavidL and myself - have found ourselves in the position of criticising the government over their proposed Internal Markets Bill.
So, I don't think the issue is that Leavers have left the site (are there any that you can think of that were here three months ago, that are not here now?), but more the government is behaving in an incompetent and self defeating manner.
I have been very vocal in condemning Boris on this to the extent I believe he should resign and I absolutely agree HMG is behaving in an incompetent and self defeating manner.
However, I still want the divorce from the EU confirmed at the end of the year and continue as a conservative party member
Well yes. And this is the bit I find most objectionable, it's a "all people who are not with me are against me" attitude. If you don't back us passing a stupid law, then you must be a closet Remainer.
I am not the biggest Boris fan. I thought him better than May, but have never loved the "lovable rogue" image he's created for himself.
But the slipshod way that the Internal Markets Bill has been drafted (being incompatible with our membership of a bunch of international bodeies), that it has been released at a time when the UK is trying to replicate existing tax treaties with individual EU states, make me rather cross.
If you think the EU is being unreasonable, then say so and withdraw from the Withdrawal Agreement. Don't attempt to make domestic law incompatible with Treaty Obligations. Because that's just being a wanker.
Also, the closest Remainers are more likely to be the ones supporting it since such madness is far more likely to blow up the UK's reputation and ability to make a success of Brexit, potentially catapulting back into the EU out of desperation (Euro, EU army, social and fiscal union, crime & justice increasingly centralised, full federalis, free blue and gold star flags for kids, the works..) in less than 10 years.
You want British independence to stick?
You have to do it sensibly, sustainably and moderately so it beds in safely and a new consensus is built.
There is no sensible, sustainable and moderate Brexit. The sensible ones are simply not sustainable. The extreme position is always in the driving seat, as @AlastairMeeks covers in the header. That goes for Rejoiners too. Quasi-EEA will be in manifestos next GE, I expect, but seen by both Leavers and Remainers as a way back to full membership.
Completely disagree. This is just confirmation bias on your part.
A good close collaborative FTA with the EU is there *RIGHT NOW* for the taking.
It needs 6-18 months of transition and bedding in and then we're all set to go.
You don't want it to be of course (which is why you're secretly glad that a few key loons in Government are trying to blow it up) but that's quite a separate matter.
Giving in on fishing, state aid, Irish sea customs etc is doable, but not sustainable. The Faragists would be apoplectic.
Catching up with some things, can anyone confirm that this Andrew Murray quote from the Maguire / Pogrund book is accurate:
"He is very empathetic, Jeremy, but he’s empathetic with the poor, the disadvantaged, the migrant, the marginalised, the people at the bottom of the heap. Happily, that is not the Jewish community in Britain today."
Source is Harry's Place, who normally get that sort of straight sourcing thing right.
@DavidL probably better not to meet Grandma if possible. Better safe than sorry!
Have the discharged you yet or are you waiting on the consultant and pharmacy?
Consultant this morning has said I can go home today. I guess I now have to let the cogs turn (very slowly)!
My news was far better than expected, the tumors are shrinking which was a surprise as they had led me to expect only spread limitation. The negative is I now have a thrombosis in the abdomen, apparently not unusual, and have to inject myself Every day for the next three months.
I had to inject myself with blood thinners for 4 weeks after my bowel surgery. Is it the same stuff for you? They’re not too bad.
Great news on the tumours though! Fingers crossed they keep shrinking.
A form of heparin BEMIPARINA 359 euros worth ! I pay 4.24
Yes great news.
My cousin with Breast Ca had soft tissue metastases 4 years ago, but also a great response to chemo, and looks her usual self. Not out of the woods, but great news. Where there is life there is hope.
Thanks I’m actually sat in the chemo suite now, the bio therapy has gone in and we’ve moved on to the chemo, another two and a half hours should do it. There are 48 stations here and are 80% occupied, I was shocked the first time I came at how prevalent cancer was, they must be treating 400/week most on 2 or 3 week cycles Without counting those on tablets. No sign of any Covid slow down and feel quite safe as everybody gets covid tested in the routine blood tests done two days before treatment.
I made the point earlier in the week that this place has regressed from being a balanced mix to an overwhelming pro EU, anti Boris abbatoir. No problem with that I'm not pro Boris but it makes for very dull, one sided conversation.
I log on 2 or 3 days later and see more of the same in a header from Alastair Meeks.
Mr Smithson this is your site and your prerogative but you might wonder why the number of posters and contributions has fallen.
I think the problem has been that a number of vocal leavers - say @MaxPB, @Casino_Royale, @Richard_Tyndall, @DavidL and myself - have found ourselves in the position of criticising the government over their proposed Internal Markets Bill.
So, I don't think the issue is that Leavers have left the site (are there any that you can think of that were here three months ago, that are not here now?), but more the government is behaving in an incompetent and self defeating manner.
Indeed, to say that I'm suddenly pro-EU because I don't want the government to break the law is absolutely ridiculous.
A good student of history should know that a revolution will eventually devour its children. It will go more and more extreme, cutting away more and more moderates until its full chaos is unleashed.
Yes its ridiculous, but quite predictable from history. And no more ridiculous than remainers being accused of not being pro-UK either.
I made the point earlier in the week that this place has regressed from being a balanced mix to an overwhelming pro EU, anti Boris abbatoir. No problem with that I'm not pro Boris but it makes for very dull, one sided conversation.
I log on 2 or 3 days later and see more of the same in a header from Alastair Meeks.
Mr Smithson this is your site and your prerogative but you might wonder why the number of posters and contributions has fallen.
I think the problem has been that a number of vocal leavers - say @MaxPB, @Casino_Royale, @Richard_Tyndall, @DavidL and myself - have found ourselves in the position of criticising the government over their proposed Internal Markets Bill.
So, I don't think the issue is that Leavers have left the site (are there any that you can think of that were here three months ago, that are not here now?), but more the government is behaving in an incompetent and self defeating manner.
I have been very vocal in condemning Boris on this to the extent I believe he should resign and I absolutely agree HMG is behaving in an incompetent and self defeating manner.
However, I still want the divorce from the EU confirmed at the end of the year and continue as a conservative party member
Well yes. And this is the bit I find most objectionable, it's a "all people who are not with me are against me" attitude. If you don't back us passing a stupid law, then you must be a closet Remainer.
I am not the biggest Boris fan. I thought him better than May, but have never loved the "lovable rogue" image he's created for himself.
But the slipshod way that the Internal Markets Bill has been drafted (being incompatible with our membership of a bunch of international bodeies), that it has been released at a time when the UK is trying to replicate existing tax treaties with individual EU states, make me rather cross.
If you think the EU is being unreasonable, then say so and withdraw from the Withdrawal Agreement. Don't attempt to make domestic law incompatible with Treaty Obligations. Because that's just being a wanker.
Also, the closest Remainers are more likely to be the ones supporting it since such madness is far more likely to blow up the UK's reputation and ability to make a success of Brexit, potentially catapulting back into the EU out of desperation (Euro, EU army, social and fiscal union, crime & justice increasingly centralised, full federalis, free blue and gold star flags for kids, the works..) in less than 10 years.
You want British independence to stick?
You have to do it sensibly, sustainably and moderately so it beds in safely and a new consensus is built.
There is no sensible, sustainable and moderate Brexit. The sensible ones are simply not sustainable. The extreme position is always in the driving seat, as @AlastairMeeks covers in the header. That goes for Rejoiners too. Quasi-EEA will be in manifestos next GE, I expect, but seen by both Leavers and Remainers as a way back to full membership.
Completely disagree. This is just confirmation bias on your part.
A good close collaborative FTA with the EU is there *RIGHT NOW* for the taking.
It needs 6-18 months of transition and bedding in and then we're all set to go.
You don't want it to be of course (which is why you're secretly glad that a few key loons in Government are trying to blow it up) but that's quite a separate matter.
Him: The extreme position is always in the driving seat.
You: a few key loons in Government are trying to blow it up.
The FTA might be "there for the taking" but who is meant to take it when the loons are in the driving seat? You are like the Greek farmer who kept trying to teach his donkeys to live without food, but by the most incredible bad luck the donkey always died just at the moment he had almost cracked it.
I don't think we'll end up back in the EU. But I agree that there are a number of Remainers rubbing their hands at the fact that the UK has managed to screw up relations with the rest of the world.
I don't think working out something was going to be a huge mess and being proved right is exactly the same as "rubbing hands in glee".
In better news For Global Britain the UK has just signed its first Brexit trade deal with Japan. Decent deal as far as I can tell, even though the hype is in overdrive. The deal is a bit less good overall than the one it replaces.
...er.....The remain massive on here reckoned no reputable country would want to do trade deals with 'rogue state' Britain!
It normally takes a while for remainer scaremongering to turn out to be complete garbage.
Its gratifying when in this case its just a day!
Really? I said that any deal we sign will be worse than the deal we already had. Lets see the detail shall we? Yes, Nissan, Honda and Toyota have factories here their government has expressed concerns over. But those are very sunk costs...
I made the point earlier in the week that this place has regressed from being a balanced mix to an overwhelming pro EU, anti Boris abbatoir. No problem with that I'm not pro Boris but it makes for very dull, one sided conversation.
I log on 2 or 3 days later and see more of the same in a header from Alastair Meeks.
Mr Smithson this is your site and your prerogative but you might wonder why the number of posters and contributions has fallen.
I think the problem has been that a number of vocal leavers - say @MaxPB, @Casino_Royale, @Richard_Tyndall, @DavidL and myself - have found ourselves in the position of criticising the government over their proposed Internal Markets Bill.
So, I don't think the issue is that Leavers have left the site (are there any that you can think of that were here three months ago, that are not here now?), but more the government is behaving in an incompetent and self defeating manner.
I have been very vocal in condemning Boris on this to the extent I believe he should resign and I absolutely agree HMG is behaving in an incompetent and self defeating manner.
However, I still want the divorce from the EU confirmed at the end of the year and continue as a conservative party member
Well yes. And this is the bit I find most objectionable, it's a "all people who are not with me are against me" attitude. If you don't back us passing a stupid law, then you must be a closet Remainer.
I am not the biggest Boris fan. I thought him better than May, but have never loved the "lovable rogue" image he's created for himself.
But the slipshod way that the Internal Markets Bill has been drafted (being incompatible with our membership of a bunch of international bodeies), that it has been released at a time when the UK is trying to replicate existing tax treaties with individual EU states, make me rather cross.
If you think the EU is being unreasonable, then say so and withdraw from the Withdrawal Agreement. Don't attempt to make domestic law incompatible with Treaty Obligations. Because that's just being a wanker.
Also, the closest Remainers are more likely to be the ones supporting it since such madness is far more likely to blow up the UK's reputation and ability to make a success of Brexit, potentially catapulting back into the EU out of desperation (Euro, EU army, social and fiscal union, crime & justice increasingly centralised, full federalis, free blue and gold star flags for kids, the works..) in less than 10 years.
You want British independence to stick?
You have to do it sensibly, sustainably and moderately so it beds in safely and a new consensus is built.
There is no sensible, sustainable and moderate Brexit. The sensible ones are simply not sustainable. The extreme position is always in the driving seat, as @AlastairMeeks covers in the header. That goes for Rejoiners too. Quasi-EEA will be in manifestos next GE, I expect, but seen by both Leavers and Remainers as a way back to full membership.
Completely disagree. This is just confirmation bias on your part.
A good close collaborative FTA with the EU is there *RIGHT NOW* for the taking.
It needs 6-18 months of transition and bedding in and then we're all set to go.
You don't want it to be of course (which is why you're secretly glad that a few key loons in Government are trying to blow it up) but that's quite a separate matter.
Giving in on fishing, state aid, Irish sea customs etc is doable, but not sustainable. The Faragists would be apoplectic.
Yes, which is why no deal would have won in the end, the government has now said no deal to the whole world. We're lucky that the Japan trade talks were so advanced and had already been agreed before this. Deals with Canada, Australia and New Zealand are going to be tougher to sign now and a deal with the US (even in a limited capacity) looks impossible, Congress will never approve a deal with the UK while it is flouting international law.
@DavidL probably better not to meet Grandma if possible. Better safe than sorry!
Have the discharged you yet or are you waiting on the consultant and pharmacy?
Consultant this morning has said I can go home today. I guess I now have to let the cogs turn (very slowly)!
My news was far better than expected, the tumors are shrinking which was a surprise as they had led me to expect only spread limitation. The negative is I now have a thrombosis in the abdomen, apparently not unusual, and have to inject myself Every day for the next three months.
I had to inject myself with blood thinners for 4 weeks after my bowel surgery. Is it the same stuff for you? They’re not too bad.
Great news on the tumours though! Fingers crossed they keep shrinking.
A form of heparin BEMIPARINA 359 euros worth ! I pay 4.24
Yes great news.
My cousin with Breast Ca had soft tissue metastases 4 years ago, but also a great response to chemo, and looks her usual self. Not out of the woods, but great news. Where there is life there is hope.
Thanks I’m actually sat in the chemo suite now, the bio therapy has gone in and we’ve moved on to the chemo, another two and a half hours should do it. There are 48 stations here and are 80% occupied, I was shocked the first time I came at how prevalent cancer was, they must be treating 400/week most on 2 or 3 week cycles Without counting those on tablets. No sign of any Covid slow down and feel quite safe as everybody gets covid tested in the routine blood tests done two days before treatment.
Good to hear you are feeling safe and being treated well. Best of luck.
I think the real problem is this: Boris wants a deal and would sorely like to seal this one. But, he knows that compromising on State Aid would precipitate Cummings resignation and he can't survive as PM without him.
So he's stuck. He'll follow the path of least resistance in the short-term. That means No Deal, I'm afraid, because it kicks the problem on 4 months and he can hope something turns up in the meantime and bullshit his way through.
The only alternative I can think of is that he feels at serious risk of being ejected from office by his MPs so he realises he has to act now or lose in ignominy.
Not holding my breath on that one.
Boris has essentially 2 choices.
He can go down the road of no deal which means that the default provisions of the WA will apply but these are very limited and would leave large areas of trade not covered at all. There would be some disruption and no doubt further deals and arrangements over time but we could live with this and, frankly, we have more important things to worry about.
Or he can agree a deal with LPF provisions which, let's face it, we have tended to apply a lot more rigorously than almost anyone else in the EU anyway.
I would have been tempted by the first but gone for the second. What we should not do (even although we can) is trash our reputation for reliability and trust by seeking to disapply the WA signed earlier this year. As I said yesterday the price is far too high.
I may also say that Boris and or Cummings has contrived to engage where his troops are once again marching steeply uphill against fortified emplacements. I really don't get why he did not select more even territory, a level playing field, even.
The LPF provisions are utterly unacceptable.
The EU don't define just state aid as an LPF. They're also including domestic law and tax rates.
When Osborne became Chancellor he cut Corporation Tax in order to attract investment, the EU could under their proposals deign that to be 'state aid' and their courts would adjudicate that not ours.
Though rcs100 has poured cold water over the characterisation of the ECB there I like the concluding sentence: The fact that Germany, whose political establishment is irrationally committed to “ever closer union”, primarily sees itself as an EU vassal state, is no reason for the UK to accept a similar station and its duties.
Comments
Should she:
(a) be isolating (and if so should we all be isolating too)?
(b) have a test?
(c) meet her 84 year old grandma for lunch today as planned?
I am genuinely asking. I have been following this more closely than most, I have been looking online for advice and I really don't know which doesn't say much about government messaging.
Yanis Varoufakis warned of this right at the start - drawing on his experience with the Greek clash with the EU a few years ago. They are brutal to deal with.
Alfie, from Peaky Blinders, sums it up nicely: "Big fucks small always, actually. There is a fight going on out there between big and small. Big will fuck small."
Should she:
(a) be isolating (and if so should we all be isolating too)?
(b) have a test?
(c) meet her 84 year old grandma for lunch today as planned?
I am genuinely asking. I have been following this more closely than most, I have been looking online for advice and I really don't know which doesn't say much about government messaging.
https://twitter.com/Pulpstar/status/1304317637434933248
The silver lining if you're GOP is you could say the Democrats are just getting their vote out early. But I'd still say this is good thus far for the blue team. It's very early though. I'm going to do some more analysis on how the partisan lean in 2016 translated to the ultimate outcome. One thing I'm assuming is that relatively few people have changed their mind so broadly speaking it's a turnout game
With the 10x increase in absentee ballots it will be impossible to check this year.
Restaurants again...
Brexiteers wanted him to blow things up. Only now are they concerned about exactly what will be left after the explosion
Brought to you by friend of the Leopards Eating Faces Party...
b) no, as she has no symptoms
c) Depends on grandma. Explain full facts to her and let her decide. If I were grandma I`d want to see my granddaugher and put quality of life over quantity at the age of 84.
"The EU are being so unreasonable, can you help me."
The IMF then demanded massively more than the EU. Indeed, the EU basically forced the IMF to agree to more generous terms with Greece than were in their remit. See George Papaconstantinou's excellent Game Over. (And indeed, the IMF's own board meeting minutes.)
Let's confiscate all the property of the Jews and give the proceeds to the NHS. Let's reintroduce hanging and give the money we spend on life imprisonment to the NHS.
Willing the end is willing the means. In hindsight (in my case, others saw this at the time) the proper response to the referendum was OK I'd quite like in some ways to leave the EU, but not if it entails my allying myself in any way with this parcel of shits.
The partisans are really partisan.
My son's 8 year old daughter had a cold and loss of taste and she has had to leave school with her 6 year of brother and the family to have a test and go into quarantine until her test results are known
https://thecritic.co.uk/the-imperial-court-of-the-ecj/
That does, of course, leave the electoral college tie uncovered, but the lay Trump and hedge the narrow Trump win must be the best bet available in years.
(Edit: I have my biggest bet - by far - running at the moment: a lay on Trump, mostly back from Jan so at good odds. Well into four figures. )
I've also argued on this site for us to leave.
The description of the ECB's actions in that piece are deeply misleading, because it had two conflicting requirements baked into its constitution. There was no way to avoid being in breach of its requirements.
Now, you can take action with what it did - and bear in mind that it got minuted sign off from every government in the Eurozone - but you can't criticise it for behaving as it did, without recognising that failure to do so would have also led it to be in breach of its constitution.
I thought the withdrawal agreement was based upon a trade deal being struck? Is this not the case?
You want British independence to stick?
You have to do it sensibly, sustainably and moderately so it beds in safely and a new consensus is built.
All she knows, until contacted by test and trace (which will probably never happen - it's unlikely that the source of the outbreak will have been diners on Wednesday night!) is that she has been in a restaurant which has a link to a number of COVID cases in the recent past.
My understanding is that Test and Trace will only contact people who have been in a source venue during relevant time periods, and might therefore be at risk of having come into contact with infected individuals. The exception might be if cases have been linked back to members of staff, obviously.
Yes, it was irresponsible of people not to think more about the consequences of their vote, but the main blame lies with the people who deceived them. And one thing people dislike very much is being deceived, hence the efforts currently underway to reassign the blame for the upcoming chaos.
2 covid cases again at my Mother in Laws nursing home, after 6 weeks clear, so all confined to rooms again.
Time to go do something useful. Play nicely everyone.
Of course the political declaration was linked to future trade deals, in the sense that it was designed to create a framework for those talks. But if those talks break down, it doesn't invalidate the legal provisions.
Jesus Christ, i wonder if some people follow this at all!!!
So he's stuck. He'll follow the path of least resistance in the short-term. That means No Deal, I'm afraid, because it kicks the problem on 4 months and he can hope something turns up in the meantime and bullshit his way through.
The only alternative I can think of is that he feels at serious risk of being ejected from office by his MPs so he realises he has to act now or lose in ignominy.
Not holding my breath on that one.
The UK is not.
We certainly could.
Up until last week I thought that wouldn't happen (we'd build a full FTA, Starmer would probably add bits to it in future and that would be that) but as of this week I could see everything turning on its head quickly if we don't change course soon.
A "scorched earth" Brexit is extremely high risk.
Great news on the tumours though! Fingers crossed they keep shrinking.
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1304321484987473920?s=19
The NI Protocol was intended to protect the Good Friday Agreement. in the event of a no deal outcome by preventing the establishment of a hard border infrastructure on the island of Ireland. The EU's original proposal was for Northern Ireland to effectively stay within the SIngle Market and customs union and subject to EU jurisdiction, with the customs border effectively transferred to the Irish Sea. May declared that unacceptable, stating that no UK Prime Minister could ever sign up to that and negotiated an alternative. It was also completely unacceptable to the DUP.
May's proposal was that in the event of no deal the whole of the UK would stay within the customs union (although i believe with NI also staying within the Single Market). The quid pro quo was that the UK wouldn't have to pay anything for this. This was rejected by Brexiteers because they thought it would restrict the UK's ability to do trade deals outside of the EU (and would still subject the UK as a whole to a measure of ECJ oversight). They didn't accept that the quid pro quo would incentivise the EU not to make the arrangements permanent.
Having had this rejected, Boris basically then signed up to the EU's original proposal (border in the Irish Sea), with some token safeguards which involved the ongoing consent of the Northern Irish people.
He's now decided that he agrees with May that "no PM could sign up to a border in the Irish Sea", even though he was told at the time that that was explicitly what he was doing, and is trying to repudiate the whole agreement. Creating the whole problem of the Irish border and breaches of GFA all over again.
This is by some way my biggest bet since Obama's first win. I got burned on Clinton last time, but only for small amounts.
He can go down the road of no deal which means that the default provisions of the WA will apply but these are very limited and would leave large areas of trade not covered at all. There would be some disruption and no doubt further deals and arrangements over time but we could live with this and, frankly, we have more important things to worry about.
Or he can agree a deal with LPF provisions which, let's face it, we have tended to apply a lot more rigorously than almost anyone else in the EU anyway.
I would have been tempted by the first but gone for the second. What we should not do (even although we can) is trash our reputation for reliability and trust by seeking to disapply the WA signed earlier this year. As I said yesterday the price is far too high.
I may also say that Boris and or Cummings has contrived to engage where his troops are once again marching steeply uphill against fortified emplacements. I really don't get why he did not select more even territory, a level playing field, even.
It normally takes a while for remainer scaremongering to turn out to be complete garbage.
Its gratifying when in this case its just a day!
A good close collaborative FTA with the EU is there *RIGHT NOW* for the taking.
It needs 6-18 months of transition and bedding in and then we're all set to go.
You don't want it to be of course (which is why you're secretly glad that a few key loons in Government are trying to blow it up) but that's quite a separate matter.
My cousin with Breast Ca had soft tissue metastases 4 years ago, but also a great response to chemo, and looks her usual self. Not out of the woods, but great news. Where there is life there is hope.
I held out the hope that the whole project could be curtailed, but on Johnson's magnificent victory I realised the game was up. I have accepted we have left. Little will convince me it was a great idea, but we are where we are.
I am nonetheless troubled that it is now evident even enthusiastic Leavers weren't entirely sure, for what they were enthusiastic. It thus frustrates me when our trading relationship with the rest of the world looks bleak the enthusiasts then decide to apportion blame for why we left. It was Blair! It was Starmer! No! Get a grip, get a deal. If it is necessary extend the transition period, use Covid as a cover if needed. My childrens' futures depend on it.
Overall economic capacity will be hit in mid October IMO and then the gains from there will have to be organic rather than recovering what has been lost.
And is advised by a Leninist in a hurry.
In a marriage, that's an excellent quality. As a party member, I have occasionally had doubts (in my case during latter-day Tony, much as I like his style and intellect). But we all jhave to decide these things for ourselves.
Catching up with some things, can anyone confirm that this Andrew Murray quote from the Maguire / Pogrund book is accurate:
"He is very empathetic, Jeremy, but he’s empathetic with the poor, the disadvantaged, the migrant, the marginalised, the people at the bottom of the heap. Happily, that is not the Jewish community in Britain today."
Source is Harry's Place, who normally get that sort of straight sourcing thing right.
Its not the disease for a low attention world.
And brings to my mind the worries that lockdown would break down.
Yes its ridiculous, but quite predictable from history. And no more ridiculous than remainers being accused of not being pro-UK either.
You: a few key loons in Government are trying to blow it up.
The FTA might be "there for the taking" but who is meant to take it when the loons are in the driving seat? You are like the Greek farmer who kept trying to teach his donkeys to live without food, but by the most incredible bad luck the donkey always died just at the moment he had almost cracked it.
In better news For Global Britain the UK has just signed its first Brexit trade deal with Japan. Decent deal as far as I can tell, even though the hype is in overdrive. The deal is a bit less good overall than the one it replaces.
https://twitter.com/tradegovuk/status/1304320706482769920
Can't think which individual could possible have said that.
The EU don't define just state aid as an LPF. They're also including domestic law and tax rates.
When Osborne became Chancellor he cut Corporation Tax in order to attract investment, the EU could under their proposals deign that to be 'state aid' and their courts would adjudicate that not ours.
No free country could accept something like that.
The fact that Germany, whose political establishment is irrationally committed to “ever closer union”, primarily sees itself as an EU vassal state, is no reason for the UK to accept a similar station and its duties.