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  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Removing a border between GB and NI will actually appease Unionists while the UK government will still keep no hard border with the Republic of Ireland to appease Nationalists
    Indeed. There are 5 not 3 options for the NI border.
    1. Risk a return to violence
    2. A hard border between GB and NI
    3. A hard border between NI and the Republic
    4. Erase the border between the UK and the EU by alignment
    5. Compromise the integrity of the border between the EU and the UK
    Once you've eliminated the impossible we have the outcome. Without either side being willing to compromise there is only one viable option.
    Exactly - a deal between the UK and the EU.

    Are you going to take my £5 bet?
    No because I think the EU will compromise if we back them into a corner. So why would I bet they won't?
    You said yesterday that you gave the chances of a deal at 20:80.

    So you are actually saying that you give the chances of a deal at 100:0.

    Glad we agree.
  • HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    I'm considering exiting the Presidential market.

    I believe the polls will tighten but not enough for Trump to win. Unlike 2016 I want to take my profit before the night, not let it ride.

    When the polls tighten the betting markets are going to massively over react in the direction of Trump.

    I will not be able to exit at a profit before election night.

    Ergo I should cash out now.

    Latest RCP Numbers

    Nationally Biden is up by 7.5% on average.

    However in the swing states it is much closer.

    In Florida Biden leads by 1.2% on average, in North Carolina by 1.5%, in Pennsylvania by 4.3%, in Michigan by 3.2%, in Wisconsin by 6.4%, in Minnesota by 5%, in Ohio by 2.4% and in Nevada by 4% and in Arizona by 5.4%.

    Trump leads by 1.7% in Iowa, by 1.3% in Georgia and by 3.5% in Texas.

    So it only takes a 2% swing nationally to Trump after the debates for example and it would be neck and neck in the EC even if Biden would still be ahead by 3.5% in the popular vote nationally

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/
    RCP used to be a great site back in the day but you really don't want to be quoting numbers like this from there any more. For instance, you quote a 3.2% lead in Michigan, but they only get that by leaving out most of the Michigan polls, much of the smallness of the lead is down to a poll from a month ago.

    Don't waste pixels on it, just use the 538 numbers. Whatever you think of their projections, they at least know how to type a poll into Excel.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_biden-6761.html
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/michigan/
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    rjk said:

    welshowl said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Removing a border between GB and NI will actually appease Unionists while the UK government will still keep no hard border with the Republic of Ireland to appease Nationalists
    Indeed. There are 5 not 3 options for the NI border.
    1. Risk a return to violence
    2. A hard border between GB and NI
    3. A hard border between NI and the Republic
    4. Erase the border between the UK and the EU by alignment
    5. Compromise the integrity of the border between the EU and the UK
    Once you've eliminated the impossible we have the outcome. Without either side being willing to compromise there is only one viable option.
    The EU have been totally absolutist about point 5 of course, even though said border is hundreds of miles from the 26 other EU countries on an island in the Atlantic Ocean.

    If you eliminated tariffs on the vast majority of trade ( as both sides wish to do), sheer shipping costs would provide a barrier for the rest of the EU and any large scale fraud would surely be relatively easily policed given you’d have very limited entry points both to and from the island of Ireland and you’d have the willing and enthusiastic cooperation of the U.K.

    Now, it involves compromising the single market in ROI a tad ( ie 1% of the single market) but you get a genuinely friendly cooperative neighbour in return.

    However, ROI abetted by the EU, went for the no compromise, let’s hope we can get Brexit reverses/softened to the point of not mattering, and sod the Brits. Fair enough it’s their perogative, but actions have consequences as M Barnier never tires of lecturing us.

    Maybe, just compromising a bit on the integrity of 1% of the Single Marjet might’ve been an option not just dismissed out of hand??
    It's also worth remembering that there are precedents for leaky borders, such as that between Norway and Sweden: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-20976887
    Yes there are the oddities that exist such as the bit of Italy you can only get to by cable car over Switzerland that is “Italian” but I believe in Swiss customs territory, or the valley in Austria which could only be accessed through Germany and was in German customs territory. There is an absolute Jackson Pollock border in Baarle Nassau between Nl/Belgium too, that was managed somehow before Benelux.

    The point is, if you are prepared to be a bit fuzzy rather than 100% absolutist, there’s ways round. But the EU has nailed itself to being 100% rules based 109% of the time in all circumstances because it has a ( totally irrational) fear of unravelling if anything is allowed to fray at all.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Removing a border between GB and NI will actually appease Unionists while the UK government will still keep no hard border with the Republic of Ireland to appease Nationalists
    Indeed. There are 5 not 3 options for the NI border.
    1. Risk a return to violence
    2. A hard border between GB and NI
    3. A hard border between NI and the Republic
    4. Erase the border between the UK and the EU by alignment
    5. Compromise the integrity of the border between the EU and the UK
    Once you've eliminated the impossible we have the outcome. Without either side being willing to compromise there is only one viable option.
    Exactly - a deal between the UK and the EU.

    Are you going to take my £5 bet?
    No because I think the EU will compromise if we back them into a corner. So why would I bet they won't?
    You said yesterday that you gave the chances of a deal at 20:80.

    So you are actually saying that you give the chances of a deal at 100:0.

    Glad we agree.
    No I put the chances of an Australian style deal at 60%
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Can we stop rerunning the past please what is done is done, who gets the blame for what happened two years ago isn’t going to shift voter opinion.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    TOPPING said:

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Removing a border between GB and NI will actually appease Unionists while the UK government will still keep no hard border with the Republic of Ireland to appease Nationalists
    Indeed. There are 5 not 3 options for the NI border.
    1. Risk a return to violence
    2. A hard border between GB and NI
    3. A hard border between NI and the Republic
    4. Erase the border between the UK and the EU by alignment
    5. Compromise the integrity of the border between the EU and the UK
    Once you've eliminated the impossible we have the outcome. Without either side being willing to compromise there is only one viable option.
    It' actually a choice between priorities. Do you prioritise Brexit and the ability to diverge from the European Union? Or do you prioritise the viability of Northern Ireland and the integrity of the United Kingdom?

    The Brexit Party (Conservative Party Holdings), CEO after takeover: B Johnson, chooses Brexit and divergence from the European Union over the interests of Northern Ireland and the integrity of the United Kingdom.

    None of us should be surprised that they make this choice, but let's be clear they are doing so.
    They say they are doing so. But even they, even they would not be as absolutely insane actually to be doing so.

    But we shall see. I have a crisp fiver ready to back up my views, if only @Philip_Thompson would respond on the matter.

    We get a deal, it will be a deal which will be a(nother) cave, and it will be spun as something completely different.

    = no hard border anywhere.
    It was always my expectation that the people running the UK would eventually give up on the Brexit contradiction of wanting control but being controlled, and then lapse into a version of the Vassal State because it's less tiring.

    This lot seem adamant however.
    There is no contradiction, we will not be controlled and we will have control.

    What kind of perverted twisted world do you think this is that free countries can be "controlled"? Do you think we will be subjected to the "EU Empire"? 🙄
    Us breaking the law is precisely because the "EU Empire" (not my term by the way) has controls on us that we as enthusiastic or press-ganged Brexiteers don't like, on principle. This will happen again and again.
    Us "breaking the law" is precisely because the EU lacks any controls on us so we can walk away. If the EU had control it would ensure we couldn't "break the law".
    You live by Mafia rules. Just saying...

    And if we do go down that route, the big guys always take out the little guys.
    Pirate code, I think ?
    If we are talking about Buccaneers' code, I don't this is it. Buccaneers are semi-official outfits that states could plausibly deny but were tolerated as long as they prey on other countries' ships and do various useful things for the home state.

    Philip is talking about doing away with the rule of law (or rather he doesn't think it's a thing anyway)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Removing a border between GB and NI will actually appease Unionists while the UK government will still keep no hard border with the Republic of Ireland to appease Nationalists
    Indeed. There are 5 not 3 options for the NI border.
    1. Risk a return to violence
    2. A hard border between GB and NI
    3. A hard border between NI and the Republic
    4. Erase the border between the UK and the EU by alignment
    5. Compromise the integrity of the border between the EU and the UK
    Once you've eliminated the impossible we have the outcome. Without either side being willing to compromise there is only one viable option.
    Exactly - a deal between the UK and the EU.

    Are you going to take my £5 bet?
    No because I think the EU will compromise if we back them into a corner. So why would I bet they won't?
    You said yesterday that you gave the chances of a deal at 20:80.

    So you are actually saying that you give the chances of a deal at 100:0.

    Glad we agree.
    No I put the chances of an Australian style deal at 60%
    An Australian deal isn't a deal.
  • Very amusing exchange on Sky:

    Kay Burley: Tony Abbott says that men are better suited to leadership roles than women do you agree?
    Grant Schapps: No; one of our greatest Prime Ministers was a woman
    Kay Burley: Probably two.

    No Kay, Schapps said greatest Prime Ministers, he meant one.

    Look 2 lines above your comment and you find "one of our greatest Prime Ministers", which indicates to me that here is a list of 'greatest Prime Ministers' which he is choosing from.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Go on Westminster, give them their "once in a generation" referendum.

    It's not as if the SNP could exactly complain. Oh, what's that you say? They can?
    That is so ironic and believable

    I am sure Malc will be along to demand they are given their referendum in the name of the Shetlander's democracy
    No one objects to Shetland or Orkeny having an independence referendum if they want one.
    Bit early in the indy ref narrative for the Shetland goes independent guff? These lads will run out of bullets if they're not careful.

    At least they're (so far) not bothering with suggesting O&S become an enclave of the glorious rUK, presumably because they've realised that a) who the fcuk would want to attach themselves to that bin fire and b) as an enclave Shetland would lose most of its offshore oil and gas rights.
    The Scottish Borders is already on the cards as an enclave for rUK, not that Boris will grant indyref2 anyway but if Shetland and Orkney want to go their own way if Scotland ever became independent fair enough
    No it's not. Of all your absolute bonkers fantasies the Scottish Borders will not vote to separate from Scotland in the event of Scottish independence.

    Source: Me, born and bred Borderer.
    Every seat in the Borders is currently held by the Tories, you are not a typical Borderer, they are called the Borders precisely because they are closer to Cumbria than to Inverness and Glasgow
    D&G 44% Tory
    DCT 46% Tory
    BRS 48% Tory

    Each seat held by less than 50%. So the typical Borderer is not a Tory voter. Peebles to Glasgow is a shorter distance than Peebles to Carlisle.

    You know nothing about the Borders.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Trump Is Running His Campaign Like He Ran His Businesses
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/09/how-donald-trump-blew-1-billion-fundraising-lead/616156/
    ...In 2016, Donald Trump’s campaign ran on a shoestring, and won. He planned a different 2020: It would be the biggest, richest, most expensive presidential campaign ever. But with just two months to go before the election, the president has burned through massive amounts of money, and now his campaign is at a cash disadvantage to the Democratic nominee, Joe Biden.

    This is an amazing feat—how did the campaign blow through nearly $1 billion to so little effect?—yet also inevitable. The Trump 2020 campaign seems to be running on the same principle as many of the president’s commercial endeavors: Trump gets richer, while other people’s money gets lit on fire...
    .
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,013
    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_xP said:

    HYUFD said:

    Now obviously Churchill was our greatest wartime PM but his elections record and domestic policy record was mixed, we wait and see what Boris' record will be policy wise over the next few years

    https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1303952478027894784
    Marry in haste; repent at leisure?
    :smile:
    Shag in haste, repent at leisure would seem more appropriate in the case of this PM.
    Evidence of repentance is thin, at best.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Nigelb said:

    Trump Is Running His Campaign Like He Ran His Businesses
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/09/how-donald-trump-blew-1-billion-fundraising-lead/616156/
    ...In 2016, Donald Trump’s campaign ran on a shoestring, and won. He planned a different 2020: It would be the biggest, richest, most expensive presidential campaign ever. But with just two months to go before the election, the president has burned through massive amounts of money, and now his campaign is at a cash disadvantage to the Democratic nominee, Joe Biden.

    This is an amazing feat—how did the campaign blow through nearly $1 billion to so little effect?—yet also inevitable. The Trump 2020 campaign seems to be running on the same principle as many of the president’s commercial endeavors: Trump gets richer, while other people’s money gets lit on fire...
    .

    It's exactly how he ran 2016. The GOP campaign had to rent space in Trump properties and paid beyond the commercial rate for the privilege of doing so,
  • FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    TOPPING said:

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Removing a border between GB and NI will actually appease Unionists while the UK government will still keep no hard border with the Republic of Ireland to appease Nationalists
    Indeed. There are 5 not 3 options for the NI border.
    1. Risk a return to violence
    2. A hard border between GB and NI
    3. A hard border between NI and the Republic
    4. Erase the border between the UK and the EU by alignment
    5. Compromise the integrity of the border between the EU and the UK
    Once you've eliminated the impossible we have the outcome. Without either side being willing to compromise there is only one viable option.
    It' actually a choice between priorities. Do you prioritise Brexit and the ability to diverge from the European Union? Or do you prioritise the viability of Northern Ireland and the integrity of the United Kingdom?

    The Brexit Party (Conservative Party Holdings), CEO after takeover: B Johnson, chooses Brexit and divergence from the European Union over the interests of Northern Ireland and the integrity of the United Kingdom.

    None of us should be surprised that they make this choice, but let's be clear they are doing so.
    They say they are doing so. But even they, even they would not be as absolutely insane actually to be doing so.

    But we shall see. I have a crisp fiver ready to back up my views, if only @Philip_Thompson would respond on the matter.

    We get a deal, it will be a deal which will be a(nother) cave, and it will be spun as something completely different.

    = no hard border anywhere.
    It was always my expectation that the people running the UK would eventually give up on the Brexit contradiction of wanting control but being controlled, and then lapse into a version of the Vassal State because it's less tiring.

    This lot seem adamant however.
    There is no contradiction, we will not be controlled and we will have control.

    What kind of perverted twisted world do you think this is that free countries can be "controlled"? Do you think we will be subjected to the "EU Empire"? 🙄
    Us breaking the law is precisely because the "EU Empire" (not my term by the way) has controls on us that we as enthusiastic or press-ganged Brexiteers don't like, on principle. This will happen again and again.
    Us "breaking the law" is precisely because the EU lacks any controls on us so we can walk away. If the EU had control it would ensure we couldn't "break the law".
    You live by Mafia rules. Just saying...

    And if we do go down that route, the big guys always take out the little guys.
    Pirate code, I think ?
    If we are talking about Buccaneers' code, I don't this is it. Buccaneers are semi-official outfits that states could plausibly deny but were tolerated as long as they prey on other countries' ships and do various useful things for the home state.

    Philip is talking about doing away with the rule of law (or rather he doesn't think it's a thing anyway)
    I think you mean Privateers don't you? Bucaneer is more of an adjective I think.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Removing a border between GB and NI will actually appease Unionists while the UK government will still keep no hard border with the Republic of Ireland to appease Nationalists
    Indeed. There are 5 not 3 options for the NI border.
    1. Risk a return to violence
    2. A hard border between GB and NI
    3. A hard border between NI and the Republic
    4. Erase the border between the UK and the EU by alignment
    5. Compromise the integrity of the border between the EU and the UK
    Once you've eliminated the impossible we have the outcome. Without either side being willing to compromise there is only one viable option.
    Exactly - a deal between the UK and the EU.

    Are you going to take my £5 bet?
    No because I think the EU will compromise if we back them into a corner. So why would I bet they won't?
    You said yesterday that you gave the chances of a deal at 20:80.

    So you are actually saying that you give the chances of a deal at 100:0.

    Glad we agree.
    No I put the chances of an Australian style deal at 60%
    An Australian deal isn't a deal.
    Or Australian...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_xP said:

    HYUFD said:

    Now obviously Churchill was our greatest wartime PM but his elections record and domestic policy record was mixed, we wait and see what Boris' record will be policy wise over the next few years

    https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1303952478027894784
    Marry in haste; repent at leisure?
    :smile:
    Shag in haste, repent at leisure would seem more appropriate in the case of this PM.
    I don't think he has sufficient self-awareness to regret anything in his past, however recent.
    I was rather thinking of his partners. But given his track record, more fools them, frankly.
    My 'children' have a friend, known since schooldays, who seemed, up his late forties to be irresistible to women, and to, generally speaking, treat them badly. My wife once asked our daughter, who was apparently impervious to his charms, and had anyway paired up with a lad in their class at about 16, what she thought his secret was. The reply was that the lothario seemed to have a particular scent, which was almost irresistible.
    No, not Lynx. One of his own!

    His father, on the other hand was a one-woman man, so far as we know.
  • Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Go on Westminster, give them their "once in a generation" referendum.

    It's not as if the SNP could exactly complain. Oh, what's that you say? They can?
    That is so ironic and believable

    I am sure Malc will be along to demand they are given their referendum in the name of the Shetlander's democracy
    No one objects to Shetland or Orkeny having an independence referendum if they want one.
    Bit early in the indy ref narrative for the Shetland goes independent guff? These lads will run out of bullets if they're not careful.

    At least they're (so far) not bothering with suggesting O&S become an enclave of the glorious rUK, presumably because they've realised that a) who the fcuk would want to attach themselves to that bin fire and b) as an enclave Shetland would lose most of its offshore oil and gas rights.
    The Scottish Borders is already on the cards as an enclave for rUK, not that Boris will grant indyref2 anyway but if Shetland and Orkney want to go their own way if Scotland ever became independent fair enough
    No it's not. Of all your absolute bonkers fantasies the Scottish Borders will not vote to separate from Scotland in the event of Scottish independence.

    Source: Me, born and bred Borderer.
    Every seat in the Borders is currently held by the Tories, you are not a typical Borderer, they are called the Borders precisely because they are closer to Cumbria than to Inverness and Glasgow
    D&G 44% Tory
    DCT 46% Tory
    BRS 48% Tory

    Each seat held by less than 50%. So the typical Borderer is not a Tory voter. Peebles to Glasgow is a shorter distance than Peebles to Carlisle.

    You know nothing about the Borders.

    I lived in Berwick for years and HYUFD's comments are as so ill-informed, he does not have a clue about the borders

    And I am a unionist
  • Nigelb said:

    Trump Is Running His Campaign Like He Ran His Businesses
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/09/how-donald-trump-blew-1-billion-fundraising-lead/616156/
    ...In 2016, Donald Trump’s campaign ran on a shoestring, and won. He planned a different 2020: It would be the biggest, richest, most expensive presidential campaign ever. But with just two months to go before the election, the president has burned through massive amounts of money, and now his campaign is at a cash disadvantage to the Democratic nominee, Joe Biden.

    This is an amazing feat—how did the campaign blow through nearly $1 billion to so little effect?—yet also inevitable. The Trump 2020 campaign seems to be running on the same principle as many of the president’s commercial endeavors: Trump gets richer, while other people’s money gets lit on fire...
    .

    Most of that $1billion is in Zuckerberg's bank account I suspect.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793
    edited September 2020
    felix said:

    IanB2 said:

    Gadfly said:

    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Good news: 20 million people have recovered from Covid-19.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    It is the ones that didn't that worry me.
    A week ago the figure was 18.4 million. 1.6 million recoveries in 7 days is pretty encouraging. Also the percentage of recoveries is rising all the time.
    In Houston over the last two months the hospital fatality rate has gone from 6% overall to 10.5%

    A quite astonishing rise
    German data suggests their death rate is declining.

    https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/declining-covid-19-case-fatality-rates-across-all-ages-analysis-of-german-data/
    Anyone have any recent stats on UK hospitalisation and ICU occupancy? We’ve been entering this second wave for well over a month now so surely the new cases should be showing up in hospitals by now?
    I'd say it took a couple of months in Spain - if not longer in some areas.
    Taking the data straight from the Government site linked earlier, and looking at the past two months (to get a trend without being swamped by the size of the March/April peaks), the England+Wales totals (Scotland not available for most recent weeks, and it's most easily compared with ONS death figures if we need to draw further comparisons) look like this (daily raw numbers and 7-day average):

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    I'm considering exiting the Presidential market.

    I believe the polls will tighten but not enough for Trump to win. Unlike 2016 I want to take my profit before the night, not let it ride.

    When the polls tighten the betting markets are going to massively over react in the direction of Trump.

    I will not be able to exit at a profit before election night.

    Ergo I should cash out now.

    Latest RCP Numbers

    Nationally Biden is up by 7.5% on average.

    However in the swing states it is much closer.

    In Florida Biden leads by 1.2% on average, in North Carolina by 1.5%, in Pennsylvania by 4.3%, in Michigan by 3.2%, in Wisconsin by 6.4%, in Minnesota by 5%, in Ohio by 2.4% and in Nevada by 4% and in Arizona by 5.4%.

    Trump leads by 1.7% in Iowa, by 1.3% in Georgia and by 3.5% in Texas.

    So it only takes a 2% swing nationally to Trump after the debates for example and it would be neck and neck in the EC even if Biden would still be ahead by 3.5% in the popular vote nationally

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/
    RCP used to be a great site back in the day but you really don't want to be quoting numbers like this from there any more. For instance, you quote a 3.2% lead in Michigan, but they only get that by leaving out most of the Michigan polls, much of the smallness of the lead is down to a poll from a month ago.

    Don't waste pixels on it, just use the 538 numbers. Whatever you think of their projections, they at least know how to type a poll into Excel.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_biden-6761.html
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/michigan/
    Thanks for raising this point Robert.

    I’ve been saying for a while that RCP is a sloppy operation. They miss polling, and even when they do capture it, capture it days late. It’s a shambles.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    F1: Vettel signs for Aston Martin next year.
    https://twitter.com/F1/status/1303951880268197888
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    I'm considering exiting the Presidential market.

    I believe the polls will tighten but not enough for Trump to win. Unlike 2016 I want to take my profit before the night, not let it ride.

    When the polls tighten the betting markets are going to massively over react in the direction of Trump.

    I will not be able to exit at a profit before election night.

    Ergo I should cash out now.

    Latest RCP Numbers

    Nationally Biden is up by 7.5% on average.

    However in the swing states it is much closer.

    In Florida Biden leads by 1.2% on average, in North Carolina by 1.5%, in Pennsylvania by 4.3%, in Michigan by 3.2%, in Wisconsin by 6.4%, in Minnesota by 5%, in Ohio by 2.4% and in Nevada by 4% and in Arizona by 5.4%.

    Trump leads by 1.7% in Iowa, by 1.3% in Georgia and by 3.5% in Texas.

    So it only takes a 2% swing nationally to Trump after the debates for example and it would be neck and neck in the EC even if Biden would still be ahead by 3.5% in the popular vote nationally

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/
    RCP used to be a great site back in the day but you really don't want to be quoting numbers like this from there any more. For instance, you quote a 3.2% lead in Michigan, but they only get that by leaving out most of the Michigan polls, much of the smallness of the lead is down to a poll from a month ago.

    Don't waste pixels on it, just use the 538 numbers. Whatever you think of their projections, they at least know how to type a poll into Excel.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_biden-6761.html
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/michigan/
    Every pollster in Michigan bar Trafalgar in 2016 had Hillary ahead anyway, every pollster in the state bar Trafalgar Group was wrong.

    Which is the only pollster with Trump still ahead in Michigan? Trafalgar
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    I'm considering exiting the Presidential market.

    I believe the polls will tighten but not enough for Trump to win. Unlike 2016 I want to take my profit before the night, not let it ride.

    When the polls tighten the betting markets are going to massively over react in the direction of Trump.

    I will not be able to exit at a profit before election night.

    Ergo I should cash out now.

    Latest RCP Numbers

    Nationally Biden is up by 7.5% on average.

    However in the swing states it is much closer.

    In Florida Biden leads by 1.2% on average, in North Carolina by 1.5%, in Pennsylvania by 4.3%, in Michigan by 3.2%, in Wisconsin by 6.4%, in Minnesota by 5%, in Ohio by 2.4% and in Nevada by 4% and in Arizona by 5.4%.

    Trump leads by 1.7% in Iowa, by 1.3% in Georgia and by 3.5% in Texas.

    So it only takes a 2% swing nationally to Trump after the debates for example and it would be neck and neck in the EC even if Biden would still be ahead by 3.5% in the popular vote nationally

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/
    RCP used to be a great site back in the day but you really don't want to be quoting numbers like this from there any more. For instance, you quote a 3.2% lead in Michigan, but they only get that by leaving out most of the Michigan polls, much of the smallness of the lead is down to a poll from a month ago.

    Don't waste pixels on it, just use the 538 numbers. Whatever you think of their projections, they at least know how to type a poll into Excel.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_biden-6761.html
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/michigan/
    Thanks for raising this point Robert.

    I’ve been saying for a while that RCP is a sloppy operation. They miss polling, and even when they do capture it, capture it days late. It’s a shambles.
    I think it was JackW who pointed out that in 2012 the RCP polling aggregations were rather, ummm, partial in which polls they left out - they had a fairly consistent habit of leaving out the more pro Obama polls.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited September 2020
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Go on Westminster, give them their "once in a generation" referendum.

    It's not as if the SNP could exactly complain. Oh, what's that you say? They can?
    That is so ironic and believable

    I am sure Malc will be along to demand they are given their referendum in the name of the Shetlander's democracy
    No one objects to Shetland or Orkeny having an independence referendum if they want one.
    Bit early in the indy ref narrative for the Shetland goes independent guff? These lads will run out of bullets if they're not careful.

    At least they're (so far) not bothering with suggesting O&S become an enclave of the glorious rUK, presumably because they've realised that a) who the fcuk would want to attach themselves to that bin fire and b) as an enclave Shetland would lose most of its offshore oil and gas rights.
    The Scottish Borders is already on the cards as an enclave for rUK, not that Boris will grant indyref2 anyway but if Shetland and Orkney want to go their own way if Scotland ever became independent fair enough
    No it's not. Of all your absolute bonkers fantasies the Scottish Borders will not vote to separate from Scotland in the event of Scottish independence.

    Source: Me, born and bred Borderer.
    Every seat in the Borders is currently held by the Tories, you are not a typical Borderer, they are called the Borders precisely because they are closer to Cumbria than to Inverness and Glasgow
    D&G 44% Tory
    DCT 46% Tory
    BRS 48% Tory

    Each seat held by less than 50%. So the typical Borderer is not a Tory voter. Peebles to Glasgow is a shorter distance than Peebles to Carlisle.

    You know nothing about the Borders.

    I said Cumbria not specifically Carlisle.

    Thanks also for confirming that 2/3 of Borders seats had a higher Tory voteshare than the 44% the Tories got UK wide and none got less then the UK Tory vote.

    If Boris grants indyref2 post a No Deal Brexit, which is unlikely and Yes wins then the Borders could be offered a choice of staying with the rUK or joining an independent Scotland.

    If they choose the latter then like the rest of Scotland they will then face tariffs on all goods and services they produce they send to England assuming Scotland then rejoins the EU
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,013



    The problem is the EU's obsession on the "integrity of the Single Market". That is incompatible with divergence, peace is not.

    We get it: the EU is for integrity, and you're against.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,013
    TOPPING said:



    An Australian deal isn't a deal.

    But it does dogwhistle nicely.

    There's a reason it's not called a Burkina Faso deal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited September 2020
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    I'm considering exiting the Presidential market.

    I believe the polls will tighten but not enough for Trump to win. Unlike 2016 I want to take my profit before the night, not let it ride.

    When the polls tighten the betting markets are going to massively over react in the direction of Trump.

    I will not be able to exit at a profit before election night.

    Ergo I should cash out now.

    Latest RCP Numbers

    Nationally Biden is up by 7.5% on average.

    However in the swing states it is much closer.

    In Florida Biden leads by 1.2% on average, in North Carolina by 1.5%, in Pennsylvania by 4.3%, in Michigan by 3.2%, in Wisconsin by 6.4%, in Minnesota by 5%, in Ohio by 2.4% and in Nevada by 4% and in Arizona by 5.4%.

    Trump leads by 1.7% in Iowa, by 1.3% in Georgia and by 3.5% in Texas.

    So it only takes a 2% swing nationally to Trump after the debates for example and it would be neck and neck in the EC even if Biden would still be ahead by 3.5% in the popular vote nationally

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/
    RCP used to be a great site back in the day but you really don't want to be quoting numbers like this from there any more. For instance, you quote a 3.2% lead in Michigan, but they only get that by leaving out most of the Michigan polls, much of the smallness of the lead is down to a poll from a month ago.

    Don't waste pixels on it, just use the 538 numbers. Whatever you think of their projections, they at least know how to type a poll into Excel.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_biden-6761.html
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/michigan/
    Thanks for raising this point Robert.

    I’ve been saying for a while that RCP is a sloppy operation. They miss polling, and even when they do capture it, capture it days late. It’s a shambles.
    I think it was JackW who pointed out that in 2012 the RCP polling aggregations were rather, ummm, partial in which polls they left out - they had a fairly consistent habit of leaving out the more pro Obama polls.
    They still had Obama ahead on average in both the popular vote and EC in 2012
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    I'm considering exiting the Presidential market.

    I believe the polls will tighten but not enough for Trump to win. Unlike 2016 I want to take my profit before the night, not let it ride.

    When the polls tighten the betting markets are going to massively over react in the direction of Trump.

    I will not be able to exit at a profit before election night.

    Ergo I should cash out now.

    Latest RCP Numbers

    Nationally Biden is up by 7.5% on average.

    However in the swing states it is much closer.

    In Florida Biden leads by 1.2% on average, in North Carolina by 1.5%, in Pennsylvania by 4.3%, in Michigan by 3.2%, in Wisconsin by 6.4%, in Minnesota by 5%, in Ohio by 2.4% and in Nevada by 4% and in Arizona by 5.4%.

    Trump leads by 1.7% in Iowa, by 1.3% in Georgia and by 3.5% in Texas.

    So it only takes a 2% swing nationally to Trump after the debates for example and it would be neck and neck in the EC even if Biden would still be ahead by 3.5% in the popular vote nationally

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/
    RCP used to be a great site back in the day but you really don't want to be quoting numbers like this from there any more. For instance, you quote a 3.2% lead in Michigan, but they only get that by leaving out most of the Michigan polls, much of the smallness of the lead is down to a poll from a month ago.

    Don't waste pixels on it, just use the 538 numbers. Whatever you think of their projections, they at least know how to type a poll into Excel.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_biden-6761.html
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/michigan/
    Thanks for raising this point Robert.

    I’ve been saying for a while that RCP is a sloppy operation. They miss polling, and even when they do capture it, capture it days late. It’s a shambles.
    I think it was JackW who pointed out that in 2012 the RCP polling aggregations were rather, ummm, partial in which polls they left out - they had a fairly consistent habit of leaving out the more pro Obama polls.
    They still had Obama ahead on average in both the popular vote and EC in 2012
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html
    Yeah but the RCP polling average lead was 0.7%. Taking the polls on Wikipedia that produced a poll with a field date ending on 3rd of November has a polling lead of 2.1%
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Go on Westminster, give them their "once in a generation" referendum.

    It's not as if the SNP could exactly complain. Oh, what's that you say? They can?
    That is so ironic and believable

    I am sure Malc will be along to demand they are given their referendum in the name of the Shetlander's democracy
    No one objects to Shetland or Orkeny having an independence referendum if they want one.
    Bit early in the indy ref narrative for the Shetland goes independent guff? These lads will run out of bullets if they're not careful.

    At least they're (so far) not bothering with suggesting O&S become an enclave of the glorious rUK, presumably because they've realised that a) who the fcuk would want to attach themselves to that bin fire and b) as an enclave Shetland would lose most of its offshore oil and gas rights.
    The Scottish Borders is already on the cards as an enclave for rUK, not that Boris will grant indyref2 anyway but if Shetland and Orkney want to go their own way if Scotland ever became independent fair enough
    No it's not. Of all your absolute bonkers fantasies the Scottish Borders will not vote to separate from Scotland in the event of Scottish independence.

    Source: Me, born and bred Borderer.
    Every seat in the Borders is currently held by the Tories, you are not a typical Borderer, they are called the Borders precisely because they are closer to Cumbria than to Inverness and Glasgow
    D&G 44% Tory
    DCT 46% Tory
    BRS 48% Tory

    Each seat held by less than 50%. So the typical Borderer is not a Tory voter. Peebles to Glasgow is a shorter distance than Peebles to Carlisle.

    You know nothing about the Borders.

    I said Cumbria not specifically Carlisle.

    Thanks also for confirming that 2/3 of Borders seats had a higher Tory voteshare than the 44% the Tories got UK wide and none got less then the UK Tory vote.

    If Boris grants indyref2 post a No Deal Brexit, which is unlikely and Yes wins then the Borders could be offered a choice of staying with the rUK or joining an independent Scotland.

    If they choose the latter then like the rest of Scotland they will then face tariffs on all goods and services they produce they send to England assuming Scotland then rejoins the EU
    😂
This discussion has been closed.