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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov pollings finds that a majority of those sampled thi

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 9 in General
imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov pollings finds that a majority of those sampled think the Covid 19 crisis is getting worse

I find the above chart absolutely fascinating because it shows very dramatically the changes in the public’s perception of how the pandemic is going. We are not back to the May to July period but there has been a lot of movement in in the past few days. A 32% to 54% jump is massive.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 15,024
    1st
  • 2nd
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 15,024
    I see twitter quips Boris wants to call his covid marshalls safe secure marshalls.

    Or SS marshalls for short
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 9,766
    edited September 9
    FPT: @Pagan2 has no sense of humour at all for future reference, personality of a doorknob
  • Back in March I thought it would be a serious issue for a very long time in the absence of a vaccine
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 1,429

    FPT: @Pagan2 has no sense of humour at all for future reference, personality of a doorknob

    Ah sorry were you under the impression I was trying to win you over so we could go out for long skinny latte's and crushed avocado toast? I reserve the more charming nature for people I think of as friends.
  • Pagan2 said:

    FPT: @Pagan2 has no sense of humour at all for future reference, personality of a doorknob

    Ah sorry were you under the impression I was trying to win you over so we could go out for long skinny latte's and crushed avocado toast? I reserve the more charming nature for people I think of as friends.
    Oh don't worry, you're not invited to my birthday party :)

    BTW, it's lattes, no apostrophe.
  • Back in March I thought it would be a serious issue for a very long time in the absence of a vaccine

    You clearly have excellent prediction skills, what next? Do you have next week's lottery numbers?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,705
    Well, they are right, aren't they?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 744
    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    Another day, another lurch towards covid authoritarianism. Politicians read this site. Someone somewhere, please stand up against this insidious dangerous nonsense. There’s a growing body of public opinion that will hail you as a hero because right now, no one is speaking up for them.

    I'm certainly increasingly worried where this is heading and the process for ending it.

    What if a vaccine is two or more years away?
    Interesting poll

    FPT

    Many years ago I watched a docco about the Khmer Rouge. It featured a psychologist who said to the effect: give me closed borders and control of the media and in 18 months I could turn even Britain into 1970s Cambodia.

    At the time I thought what a load of nonsense. But now I’m not so sure, when I see polls like this and understand just how easy it is to sedate people’s critical and moral faculties with a bit of fear. And all for a pandemic that when all is said and done, will cause perhaps only 2 months worth of excess deaths.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 1,429
    The big huge glaring problem with these regulations is simply this. People aren't thinking ahead. It is 2022 Covid is in our rear view mirror. We got through it and breathed a sigh of relief. Suddenly a new strain of Sars hits somewhere and is in the news.

    Bang we are all on precautionary lockdown again with the precedent of the current rules as no future government will risk a rerun of Covid. These events come often enough that we will spend more time under restriction than not
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 1,457

    Well, they are right, aren't they?

    But it doesn't make them great prognosticators.

    Spanish Flu was worse in the 2nd wave. The 2nd wave is generally the grimmest. This is how these bastards work,
  • So, is Keir Starmer the next David Cameron?

    Will 2024 be a repeat of 2010?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,049
    Pagan2 said:

    The big huge glaring problem with these regulations is simply this. People aren't thinking ahead. It is 2022 Covid is in our rear view mirror. We got through it and breathed a sigh of relief. Suddenly a new strain of Sars hits somewhere and is in the news.

    Bang we are all on precautionary lockdown again with the precedent of the current rules as no future government will risk a rerun of Covid. These events come often enough that we will spend more time under restriction than not

    But as we saw in the early stages of Covid, those Asian countries that had experience with SARS all acted quickly and have performed much better.
  • So, is Keir Starmer the next David Cameron?

    Will 2024 be a repeat of 2010?

    In that he fails to get a majority?

    If we must lose then I can live with that.
  • Back in March I thought it would be a serious issue for a very long time in the absence of a vaccine

    But the balance of probabilities is that, despite the recent setback, a vaccine is likely to be available reasonably soon. Not soon enough to save Trump or Christmas 2020, but reasonably soon.

    In which case the Project Moonshot testing has a higher than average chance of turning into an expensive white elephant.
  • So, is Keir Starmer the next David Cameron?

    Will 2024 be a repeat of 2010?

    In that he fails to get a majority?

    If we must lose then I can live with that.
    I don't think anyone is suggesting Labour will win a majority in 2024, certainly not me
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 1,429

    Pagan2 said:

    FPT: @Pagan2 has no sense of humour at all for future reference, personality of a doorknob

    Ah sorry were you under the impression I was trying to win you over so we could go out for long skinny latte's and crushed avocado toast? I reserve the more charming nature for people I think of as friends.
    Oh don't worry, you're not invited to my birthday party :)

    BTW, it's lattes, no apostrophe.
    I am sure I have missed the party of the century, if the century was about 4000 bc.

    Please note before someone has a go at me as I usually get told off I didn't start on CHB
  • Pagan2 said:

    The big huge glaring problem with these regulations is simply this. People aren't thinking ahead. It is 2022 Covid is in our rear view mirror. We got through it and breathed a sigh of relief. Suddenly a new strain of Sars hits somewhere and is in the news.

    Bang we are all on precautionary lockdown again with the precedent of the current rules as no future government will risk a rerun of Covid. These events come often enough that we will spend more time under restriction than not

    Maybe we can do what East Asia has done and get used to just wearing a mask when there's a contagious virus going around and not needing a lockdown as a result?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,705
    LadyG said:

    Well, they are right, aren't they?

    But it doesn't make them great prognosticators.

    Spanish Flu was worse in the 2nd wave. The 2nd wave is generally the grimmest. This is how these bastards work,
    This particular bastard doesn't play by the rules, though.

    So far the second wave seems to be less deadly than the first. Of course the little bastard might be biding its time, to lull us into a false sense of security.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,396
    I have spent July and August on the assumption that things are going be grim next winter.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 744
    Pagan2 said:

    The big huge glaring problem with these regulations is simply this. People aren't thinking ahead. It is 2022 Covid is in our rear view mirror. We got through it and breathed a sigh of relief. Suddenly a new strain of Sars hits somewhere and is in the news.

    Bang we are all on precautionary lockdown again with the precedent of the current rules as no future government will risk a rerun of Covid. These events come often enough that we will spend more time under restriction than not

    One can only hope that by then people have realised the truth, that the global policy response to covid has by far been worse than the virus itself.

    But we can play the game another way. It’s 2022 and everyone has seen through the fog of the covid crisis and seen it for what it really was. And then Disease X really does hit. But the boy had cried wolf in 2020...

    I know it’s all a bit Species 2 but with an exciting age of space exploration finally about to dawn, I do personally worry a little bit what pathogens might come back from Mars a decade from now.
  • Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    FPT: @Pagan2 has no sense of humour at all for future reference, personality of a doorknob

    Ah sorry were you under the impression I was trying to win you over so we could go out for long skinny latte's and crushed avocado toast? I reserve the more charming nature for people I think of as friends.
    Oh don't worry, you're not invited to my birthday party :)

    BTW, it's lattes, no apostrophe.
    I am sure I have missed the party of the century, if the century was about 4000 bc.

    Please note before someone has a go at me as I usually get told off I didn't start on CHB
    And just so everyone knows because this user has a habit of lying, he responded to me first.

    But I didn't realise we were both 12 and it was "he started it".

    Who cares, maybe just lighten up a bit?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 1,429

    Pagan2 said:

    The big huge glaring problem with these regulations is simply this. People aren't thinking ahead. It is 2022 Covid is in our rear view mirror. We got through it and breathed a sigh of relief. Suddenly a new strain of Sars hits somewhere and is in the news.

    Bang we are all on precautionary lockdown again with the precedent of the current rules as no future government will risk a rerun of Covid. These events come often enough that we will spend more time under restriction than not

    Maybe we can do what East Asia has done and get used to just wearing a mask when there's a contagious virus going around and not needing a lockdown as a result?
    Heres a better idea how about we don't. The east asians mainly wear them for pollution for a start and it dehumanises people as they become just a pair of eyes with no facial expression
  • LadyG said:

    Well, they are right, aren't they?

    But it doesn't make them great prognosticators.

    Spanish Flu was worse in the 2nd wave. The 2nd wave is generally the grimmest. This is how these bastards work,
    What evidence is there that the second wave is generally grimmer? I thought the Spanish Flu was the exception not the norm - and it is combined with the fact there was general ill health and conditions at the end of the War.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 2,279
    Pagan2 said:

    The big huge glaring problem with these regulations is simply this. People aren't thinking ahead. It is 2022 Covid is in our rear view mirror. We got through it and breathed a sigh of relief. Suddenly a new strain of Sars hits somewhere and is in the news.

    Bang we are all on precautionary lockdown again with the precedent of the current rules as no future government will risk a rerun of Covid. These events come often enough that we will spend more time under restriction than not

    Or even worse, Swine flu (which infected 1/3 of the planet). We will have destroyed anything left of our economy before anyone actually notices the thing is almost totally harmless. Although imagine how many deaths swine flu would now have attributed to it had we been testing everyone and every death with a positive test having been blamed on it!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 3,302
    O/T: that poll is hugely problematic. What does "the coronavirus situation" mean?
    ust the virus, or the virus + the reaction to it? My guess is that the jump is due to people realising that furlough is coming to an end.
  • Since becoming leader Starmer has appealed to the preoccupations and priorities of the new Tory-voting, Brexit-supporting working class. His tactical silences have been notable too. There have been small but significant gestures: opposition frontbenchers taking care to tweet their respects on the anniversary of the soldier Lee Rigby’s murder; Starmer’s support for retaining “Land of Hope and Glory” and “Rule Britannia” at the Proms. And there have been larger ones, such as Starmer’s vocal opposition to the Black Lives Matter campaign to abolish the police. Starmer is positioning himself against Corbyn on cultural matters.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,779
    edited September 9
    Excellent article, with just a bit of myth-making at the very end there. Labour was never exclusively the party of working people, just as no other social democratic or socialist European party was. As is well known, it was begun and made possible by middle-class intellectuals co-operating with workers.
  • Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    The big huge glaring problem with these regulations is simply this. People aren't thinking ahead. It is 2022 Covid is in our rear view mirror. We got through it and breathed a sigh of relief. Suddenly a new strain of Sars hits somewhere and is in the news.

    Bang we are all on precautionary lockdown again with the precedent of the current rules as no future government will risk a rerun of Covid. These events come often enough that we will spend more time under restriction than not

    Maybe we can do what East Asia has done and get used to just wearing a mask when there's a contagious virus going around and not needing a lockdown as a result?
    Heres a better idea how about we don't. The east asians mainly wear them for pollution for a start and it dehumanises people as they become just a pair of eyes with no facial expression
    If the choice is a mask or a lockdown I would choose to wear a mask.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 744
    edited September 9

    Pagan2 said:

    The big huge glaring problem with these regulations is simply this. People aren't thinking ahead. It is 2022 Covid is in our rear view mirror. We got through it and breathed a sigh of relief. Suddenly a new strain of Sars hits somewhere and is in the news.

    Bang we are all on precautionary lockdown again with the precedent of the current rules as no future government will risk a rerun of Covid. These events come often enough that we will spend more time under restriction than not

    Maybe we can do what East Asia has done and get used to just wearing a mask when there's a contagious virus going around and not needing a lockdown as a result?
    I don’t think you have been paying much attention to what has been happening in Asia have you. I also get the impression you’ve not spent much time there if you think whole populations routinely wear masks when they are not themselves ill.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 2,279
    That's not a neutrally phrased question. It makes assumptions about the effect of the proposal and leads to an obvious answer. It doesn't allow for one to believe that a curfew either won't avert a second wave, or alternatively that absence of a curfew won't contribute to one.
  • Back in March I thought it would be a serious issue for a very long time in the absence of a vaccine

    You clearly have excellent prediction skills, what next? Do you have next week's lottery numbers?
    That's a little unkind of you Horse

    At my wife (81) and my (77) ages and with our underling conditions including copd, covid has always been a real concern, not just for us but our entire family, and it was evident in March that covid was not going to be defeated without a vaccine which often take years to develop

    It is therefore true that neither of us expected it to be over in six months
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,396
    I don't think this is a second wave in the normal sense of a new strain of virus. It is a first wave that was suppressed becoming unsuppressed. The reason why I think next winter will be grim is because the health system was in long term collapse anyway, each winter being less able to cope than the last. Covid on top will be extra bad.
  • Back in March I thought it would be a serious issue for a very long time in the absence of a vaccine

    You clearly have excellent prediction skills, what next? Do you have next week's lottery numbers?
    That's a little unkind of you Horse

    At my wife (81) and my (77) ages and with our underling conditions including copd, covid has always been a real concern, not just for us but our entire family, and it was evident in March that covid was not going to be defeated without a vaccine which often take years to develop

    It is therefore true that neither of us expected it to be over in six months
    It was only a joke Big G but I hope you will accept my full apology for any offence I have caused you.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 964

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    The big huge glaring problem with these regulations is simply this. People aren't thinking ahead. It is 2022 Covid is in our rear view mirror. We got through it and breathed a sigh of relief. Suddenly a new strain of Sars hits somewhere and is in the news.

    Bang we are all on precautionary lockdown again with the precedent of the current rules as no future government will risk a rerun of Covid. These events come often enough that we will spend more time under restriction than not

    Maybe we can do what East Asia has done and get used to just wearing a mask when there's a contagious virus going around and not needing a lockdown as a result?
    Heres a better idea how about we don't. The east asians mainly wear them for pollution for a start and it dehumanises people as they become just a pair of eyes with no facial expression
    If the choice is a mask or a lockdown I would choose to wear a mask.
    The reality seems to be both, though.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,396
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    The big huge glaring problem with these regulations is simply this. People aren't thinking ahead. It is 2022 Covid is in our rear view mirror. We got through it and breathed a sigh of relief. Suddenly a new strain of Sars hits somewhere and is in the news.

    Bang we are all on precautionary lockdown again with the precedent of the current rules as no future government will risk a rerun of Covid. These events come often enough that we will spend more time under restriction than not

    Maybe we can do what East Asia has done and get used to just wearing a mask when there's a contagious virus going around and not needing a lockdown as a result?
    Heres a better idea how about we don't. The east asians mainly wear them for pollution for a start and it dehumanises people as they become just a pair of eyes with no facial expression
    And here's the best idea. We practise the best possible hygiene, including wearing masks, so we can go about our business safely without being overwhelmed by an epidemic and death.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 3,302

    Back in March I thought it would be a serious issue for a very long time in the absence of a vaccine

    You clearly have excellent prediction skills, what next? Do you have next week's lottery numbers?
    That's a little unkind of you Horse

    At my wife (81) and my (77) ages and with our underling conditions including copd, covid has always been a real concern, not just for us but our entire family, and it was evident in March that covid was not going to be defeated without a vaccine which often take years to develop

    It is therefore true that neither of us expected it to be over in six months
    I`d be astonished if anyone thought it would be over in six months TBH. My working hypothesis back then was that almost all of us will get it eventually, though I now think that things are looking less inevitable in that regard than I thought.

    So overall I`m more optimistic now than I was then.
  • Irresponsible

    What do you expect from the Express?

    At least they're not saying Christmas can be saved by the Ghost of Diana.
  • So, is Keir Starmer the next David Cameron?

    Will 2024 be a repeat of 2010?

    In that he fails to get a majority?

    If we must lose then I can live with that.
    I don't think anyone is suggesting Labour will win a majority in 2024, certainly not me
    It depends on Scotland and retaining the union

    If Starmer purges Corbyn and his fellow travellers from labour and moves to the centre he has a good chance especially if Boris is still there(and I really hope he is gone long before)
  • LadyG said:

    Well, they are right, aren't they?

    But it doesn't make them great prognosticators.

    Spanish Flu was worse in the 2nd wave. The 2nd wave is generally the grimmest. This is how these bastards work,
    Is that always- or even generally- the case? Going back to conversations in Spring 2020, I think that's been debunked.

    Basically the odd dynamics of WW1 meant that the more severe strains from Wave 1 spread better (really sick soldiers were sent home) which is why Wave 2 was so horrible.

    For most infections, you'd expect Wave 2 to be less bad (and I think that happens) simply because management and treatment are better worked out, what with how clever humans are. My memory of March is government messaging being obsessed with Spanish Flu, as part of the "it's best to get people infected this summer" theory. When the Inquiry comes, that needs following up.
  • Boris Johnson believes a mass testing programme is “our only hope for avoiding a second national lockdown before a vaccine”, according to leaked official documents setting out plans for “Operation Moonshot”.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 1,429

    Irresponsible

    What do you expect from the Express?

    At least they're not saying Christmas can be saved by the Ghost of Diana.
    Diana is dead? I thought the latest theory was it was all a sham and she is shacked up in a menage a trois with lord lucan and elvis on the dark side of the moon? Perhaps I have been reading novara media too much though
  • RobDRobD Posts: 48,525
    Leaked papers show that? Wasn't it also mentioned at the rather public press conference?!
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 744
    Project Moonshot is I guess the only way Bozza can see all his progeny on Christmas Day.

    Alternatively he could grow a fucking backbone, sack Hancock, Whitty and Vallance, and start to treat the country like grown ups.
  • Boris Johnson believes a mass testing programme is “our only hope for avoiding a second national lockdown before a vaccine”, according to leaked official documents setting out plans for “Operation Moonshot”.

    The cynic in me wonders if this is serious, or if its just a case of signalling "we're going to do what it takes to sort out testing".
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,108
    Yes, closing the night time economy at 2200 is far better than a complete closure.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 48,525
    Foxy said:

    Yes, closing the night time economy at 2200 is far better than a complete closure.
    Isn't it more to disrupt large gatherings in homes?
  • If delivered, the moonshot programme would be unprecedented in scale and, as reflected by its name, is considered by some officials to be at the outer level of possibility.

    Some of the technology it would require does not yet exist.

    Here we go again
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 2,279
    Johnson's approach to government is just one long series of moonshot fantasies. God know who he thinks is going to process all these tests, and adminster and distribute all the results, let alone what health outcomes could be delivered through better use of the resources. It sounds as if he wants to turn the Country into a Covid economy, where 1 in every 3 working adults is officially employed somewhere in the COVID fight. What all these people do at the end of it, who knows?
  • Since becoming leader Starmer has appealed to the preoccupations and priorities of the new Tory-voting, Brexit-supporting working class. His tactical silences have been notable too. There have been small but significant gestures: opposition frontbenchers taking care to tweet their respects on the anniversary of the soldier Lee Rigby’s murder; Starmer’s support for retaining “Land of Hope and Glory” and “Rule Britannia” at the Proms. And there have been larger ones, such as Starmer’s vocal opposition to the Black Lives Matter campaign to abolish the police. Starmer is positioning himself against Corbyn on cultural matters.

    Unfortunately - and I mean that word genuinely - he has also made one or two very public errors which have undermined much of the work you describe. The worst was - in spite of his pronouncements - taking a knee in support of BLM. Images have a far greater impact than words and that image has damaged his reputation significantly amongst many of those he is seeking to win over.
  • Back in March I thought it would be a serious issue for a very long time in the absence of a vaccine

    You clearly have excellent prediction skills, what next? Do you have next week's lottery numbers?
    That's a little unkind of you Horse

    At my wife (81) and my (77) ages and with our underling conditions including copd, covid has always been a real concern, not just for us but our entire family, and it was evident in March that covid was not going to be defeated without a vaccine which often take years to develop

    It is therefore true that neither of us expected it to be over in six months
    It was only a joke Big G but I hope you will accept my full apology for any offence I have caused you.
    No need to apologise Horse

    But thank you
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,108

    Boris Johnson believes a mass testing programme is “our only hope for avoiding a second national lockdown before a vaccine”, according to leaked official documents setting out plans for “Operation Moonshot”.

    They are all NASA obsessed boomers aren't they?

    Mission control and now Moonshot, FFS...
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 2,279

    Boris Johnson believes a mass testing programme is “our only hope for avoiding a second national lockdown before a vaccine”, according to leaked official documents setting out plans for “Operation Moonshot”.

    For £100 billion you could just pay the entire country to stay in their homes for a month. Would probably be more effective, and have cash to spare.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 1,429
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Yes, closing the night time economy at 2200 is far better than a complete closure.
    Isn't it more to disrupt large gatherings in homes?
    How is it going to disrupt large gatherings in homes if pubs shut at 10pm it encourages people to have parties I would think and most people dont wait till 10pm to buy the booze for the house party
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,396

    LadyG said:

    Well, they are right, aren't they?

    But it doesn't make them great prognosticators.

    Spanish Flu was worse in the 2nd wave. The 2nd wave is generally the grimmest. This is how these bastards work,
    Is that always- or even generally- the case? Going back to conversations in Spring 2020, I think that's been debunked.

    Basically the odd dynamics of WW1 meant that the more severe strains from Wave 1 spread better (really sick soldiers were sent home) which is why Wave 2 was so horrible.

    For most infections, you'd expect Wave 2 to be less bad (and I think that happens) simply because management and treatment are better worked out, what with how clever humans are. My memory of March is government messaging being obsessed with Spanish Flu, as part of the "it's best to get people infected this summer" theory. When the Inquiry comes, that needs following up.
    We're still in Wave 1. Just got a little bigger.

    Talking of which, serious respect:

  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 964
    Shit starts getting serious when Christmas is threatened.

    Like the sporting calendar maybe we'll be forced to reschedule it to May, or something.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,389
    edited September 9
    1984 Election results



    1:36:30 Kerry wins MA.
    1:36:50 Biden wins Delaware ! Considered a presidential candidate in 88...
    1:42:33 Clinton elected Governor of Arkansas
  • RobDRobD Posts: 48,525
    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Yes, closing the night time economy at 2200 is far better than a complete closure.
    Isn't it more to disrupt large gatherings in homes?
    How is it going to disrupt large gatherings in homes if pubs shut at 10pm it encourages people to have parties I would think and most people dont wait till 10pm to buy the booze for the house party
    Most people are law abiding citizens. You don't need to have 100% absolute compliance in all of these measures.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 48,525
    alex_ said:

    Boris Johnson believes a mass testing programme is “our only hope for avoiding a second national lockdown before a vaccine”, according to leaked official documents setting out plans for “Operation Moonshot”.

    For £100 billion you could just pay the entire country to stay in their homes for a month. Would probably be more effective, and have cash to spare.
    What do you do next month?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,108

    So, is Keir Starmer the next David Cameron?

    Will 2024 be a repeat of 2010?

    1997 at this rate.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 3,302
    edited September 9
    moonshine said:

    Project Moonshot is I guess the only way Bozza can see all his progeny on Christmas Day.

    Alternatively he could grow a fucking backbone, sack Hancock, Whitty and Vallance, and start to treat the country like grown ups.
    The thing that gets me about today`s tightening in restrictions is that R is thought to be at 1. Therefore the virus isn`t increasing in prevalance. The increase in infections must - I think - therefore be due to testing finding a higher proportion of infected people, perhaps because testing rates are skewed toward problem areas of the country. (Unless R is, in fact, higher than 1.)
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 2,279
    RobD said:

    Leaked papers show that? Wasn't it also mentioned at the rather public press conference?!
    I don't think the press conference said anything about "National Lockdown unless we reach the moon in 6 weeks". Aren't the current limited measures supposed to be sufficient to avert a national lockdown?
  • Foxy said:

    So, is Keir Starmer the next David Cameron?

    Will 2024 be a repeat of 2010?

    1997 at this rate.
    We rarely disagree Foxy but we do here.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 21,852
    edited September 9
    Whilst I am sure she is genuine and probably also correct on the substantive issue, she is talking bull with that last comment about the GFA being treasured by the American people. The vast majority will ever even have heard of the GFA let alone have an opinion on it.

    This is a matter purely for political geeks. Unfortunately she is absolutely right that those geeks are sitting in Congress, do understand the issues and will be extremely pissed by the actions of the UK in reneging on an international treaty - particularly one involving Ireland.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 9,702
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Yes, closing the night time economy at 2200 is far better than a complete closure.
    Isn't it more to disrupt large gatherings in homes?
    Day drinking it is!
  • Since becoming leader Starmer has appealed to the preoccupations and priorities of the new Tory-voting, Brexit-supporting working class. His tactical silences have been notable too. There have been small but significant gestures: opposition frontbenchers taking care to tweet their respects on the anniversary of the soldier Lee Rigby’s murder; Starmer’s support for retaining “Land of Hope and Glory” and “Rule Britannia” at the Proms. And there have been larger ones, such as Starmer’s vocal opposition to the Black Lives Matter campaign to abolish the police. Starmer is positioning himself against Corbyn on cultural matters.

    Unfortunately - and I mean that word genuinely - he has also made one or two very public errors which have undermined much of the work you describe. The worst was - in spite of his pronouncements - taking a knee in support of BLM. Images have a far greater impact than words and that image has damaged his reputation significantly amongst many of those he is seeking to win over.
    It's a quote from the New Statesman if that wasn't clear
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 1,429
    Stocky said:

    moonshine said:

    Project Moonshot is I guess the only way Bozza can see all his progeny on Christmas Day.

    Alternatively he could grow a fucking backbone, sack Hancock, Whitty and Vallance, and start to treat the country like grown ups.
    The thing that gets me about today`s tightening in restrictions is that R is thought to be at 1. Therefore the virus isn`t increasing in prevalance. The increase in infections must - I think - therefore be due to testing finding a higher proportion of infected people, perhaps because testing rates are skewed toward problem areas of the country. (Unless R is, in fact, higher than 1.)
    oops might have slipped and hit off topic there sorry not intended

    Weren't they saying a problem with testing is symptomless people getting uneccesarilt tested. Therefore sounds to me if anything more likely to be under reporting
  • RobDRobD Posts: 48,525
    alex_ said:

    RobD said:

    Leaked papers show that? Wasn't it also mentioned at the rather public press conference?!
    I don't think the press conference said anything about "National Lockdown unless we reach the moon in 6 weeks". Aren't the current limited measures supposed to be sufficient to avert a national lockdown?
    It was mentioned as a way to get back to some semblance of normality, not as a way to avoid lockdown.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 2,279
    edited September 9
    RobD said:

    alex_ said:

    Boris Johnson believes a mass testing programme is “our only hope for avoiding a second national lockdown before a vaccine”, according to leaked official documents setting out plans for “Operation Moonshot”.

    For £100 billion you could just pay the entire country to stay in their homes for a month. Would probably be more effective, and have cash to spare.
    What do you do next month?
    If EVERYONE was at home, not exceptions for unlimited number of reasons, then you'd probably largely kill the thing off. That's what China did, after all.

    Please note - I'm not in favour of this idea. But if there's money to burn...
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 21,852
    edited September 9

    Since becoming leader Starmer has appealed to the preoccupations and priorities of the new Tory-voting, Brexit-supporting working class. His tactical silences have been notable too. There have been small but significant gestures: opposition frontbenchers taking care to tweet their respects on the anniversary of the soldier Lee Rigby’s murder; Starmer’s support for retaining “Land of Hope and Glory” and “Rule Britannia” at the Proms. And there have been larger ones, such as Starmer’s vocal opposition to the Black Lives Matter campaign to abolish the police. Starmer is positioning himself against Corbyn on cultural matters.

    Unfortunately - and I mean that word genuinely - he has also made one or two very public errors which have undermined much of the work you describe. The worst was - in spite of his pronouncements - taking a knee in support of BLM. Images have a far greater impact than words and that image has damaged his reputation significantly amongst many of those he is seeking to win over.
    It's a quote from the New Statesman if that wasn't clear
    Sorry no it wasn't. Apologies.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 1,457

    LadyG said:

    Well, they are right, aren't they?

    But it doesn't make them great prognosticators.

    Spanish Flu was worse in the 2nd wave. The 2nd wave is generally the grimmest. This is how these bastards work,
    What evidence is there that the second wave is generally grimmer? I thought the Spanish Flu was the exception not the norm - and it is combined with the fact there was general ill health and conditions at the end of the War.
    Respiratory viruses get worse in winter.

    This one kicked in, across the world, in the early spring for the northern hemisphere.

    So the 2nd round was bound to be tougher, I think. Also, 2nd rounds are often worse, overall
  • RobDRobD Posts: 48,525
    alex_ said:

    RobD said:

    alex_ said:

    Boris Johnson believes a mass testing programme is “our only hope for avoiding a second national lockdown before a vaccine”, according to leaked official documents setting out plans for “Operation Moonshot”.

    For £100 billion you could just pay the entire country to stay in their homes for a month. Would probably be more effective, and have cash to spare.
    What do you do next month?
    If EVERYONE was at home, not exceptions for unlimited number of reasons, then you'd probably largely kill the thing off. That's what China did, after all.

    Please note - I'm not in favour of this idea. But if there's money to burn...
    Everyone? How would you get food for starters?
  • Since becoming leader Starmer has appealed to the preoccupations and priorities of the new Tory-voting, Brexit-supporting working class. His tactical silences have been notable too. There have been small but significant gestures: opposition frontbenchers taking care to tweet their respects on the anniversary of the soldier Lee Rigby’s murder; Starmer’s support for retaining “Land of Hope and Glory” and “Rule Britannia” at the Proms. And there have been larger ones, such as Starmer’s vocal opposition to the Black Lives Matter campaign to abolish the police. Starmer is positioning himself against Corbyn on cultural matters.

    Unfortunately - and I mean that word genuinely - he has also made one or two very public errors which have undermined much of the work you describe. The worst was - in spite of his pronouncements - taking a knee in support of BLM. Images have a far greater impact than words and that image has damaged his reputation significantly amongst many of those he is seeking to win over.
    It's a quote from the New Statesman if that wasn't clear
    Sorry no it wasn't. Apologies.
    Only I should apologise for not being clear, I will do so.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,396
    Stocky said:

    moonshine said:

    Project Moonshot is I guess the only way Bozza can see all his progeny on Christmas Day.

    Alternatively he could grow a fucking backbone, sack Hancock, Whitty and Vallance, and start to treat the country like grown ups.
    The thing that gets me about today`s tightening in restrictions is that R is thought to be at 1. Therefore the virus isn`t increasing in prevalance. The increase in infections must - I think - therefore be due to testing finding a higher proportion of infected people, perhaps because testing rates are skewed toward problem areas of the country. (Unless R is, in fact, higher than 1.)
    R is assumed to be greater than 1 now in England, between 0.9 and 1.4 in Scotland and between 1.1 and 1.6 in Northern Ireland.
    https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/
  • alex_ said:

    Boris Johnson believes a mass testing programme is “our only hope for avoiding a second national lockdown before a vaccine”, according to leaked official documents setting out plans for “Operation Moonshot”.

    For £100 billion you could just pay the entire country to stay in their homes for a month. Would probably be more effective, and have cash to spare.
    How would that work?

    If everyone stayed at home for a month then by the end of the month we would have hundreds of thousands or millions dead. Every single person who can not look after themselves 100% perfectly, who relies upon others to survive would perish.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 3,302
    FF43 said:

    Stocky said:

    moonshine said:

    Project Moonshot is I guess the only way Bozza can see all his progeny on Christmas Day.

    Alternatively he could grow a fucking backbone, sack Hancock, Whitty and Vallance, and start to treat the country like grown ups.
    The thing that gets me about today`s tightening in restrictions is that R is thought to be at 1. Therefore the virus isn`t increasing in prevalance. The increase in infections must - I think - therefore be due to testing finding a higher proportion of infected people, perhaps because testing rates are skewed toward problem areas of the country. (Unless R is, in fact, higher than 1.)
    R is assumed to be greater than 1 now in England, between 0.9 and 1.4 in Scotland and between 1.1 and 1.6 in Northern Ireland.
    https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/
    Yes, but 0.9 - 1.1 taken over UK as a whole.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 7,001
    Donald Trump nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-54092960
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 964
    Stocky said:

    moonshine said:

    Project Moonshot is I guess the only way Bozza can see all his progeny on Christmas Day.

    Alternatively he could grow a fucking backbone, sack Hancock, Whitty and Vallance, and start to treat the country like grown ups.
    The thing that gets me about today`s tightening in restrictions is that R is thought to be at 1. Therefore the virus isn`t increasing in prevalance. The increase in infections must - I think - therefore be due to testing finding a higher proportion of infected people, perhaps because testing rates are skewed toward problem areas of the country. (Unless R is, in fact, higher than 1.)
    We were being told repeatedly at the end of the 12 week lockdown when the numbers were finally bottoming out because the country had all stayed indoors and only ventured out for food that R was still around 0.9. It never really got much less than that, nationally at least (regionally it might have been a bit lower).

    There's no way it's not more than 1 now, not with the attempts in the last couple of months to try and have most things opened up again.

    And ultimately 1.1, 1.5, does it make much difference? They're still exponential growth, just different speeds.
  • LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    Well, they are right, aren't they?

    But it doesn't make them great prognosticators.

    Spanish Flu was worse in the 2nd wave. The 2nd wave is generally the grimmest. This is how these bastards work,
    What evidence is there that the second wave is generally grimmer? I thought the Spanish Flu was the exception not the norm - and it is combined with the fact there was general ill health and conditions at the end of the War.
    Respiratory viruses get worse in winter.

    This one kicked in, across the world, in the early spring for the northern hemisphere.

    So the 2nd round was bound to be tougher, I think. Also, 2nd rounds are often worse, overall
    "Just like the flu"?
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 1,457

    Whilst I am sure she is genuine and probably also correct on the substantive issue, she is talking bull with that last comment about the GFA being treasured by the American people. The vast majority will ever even have heard of the GFA let alone have an opinion on it.

    This is a matter purely for political geeks. Unfortunately she is absolutely right that those geeks are sitting in Congress, do understand the issues and will be extremely pissed by the actions of the UK in reneging on an international treaty - particularly one involving Ireland.
    Fuck em. In the end we can say to the USA - is Ireland that important you would sacrifice you trading/military/intel/cultural relations with the UK, for a shamrock?

    If they say Yes, then let them Go Fish in the Shannon. So be it. We leave NATO, Five Eyes, and the rest. With all that means for the USA.

    If not, then let them be silent, on this.

    It's time for Britain to assume its rightful place in the world, no higher than it should be, but no lower, either. We are a major yet secondary power, we are entitled to our independence. The Yanks can do one, if they seek to bully us,
  • If delivered, the moonshot programme would be unprecedented in scale and, as reflected by its name, is considered by some officials to be at the outer level of possibility.

    Some of the technology it would require does not yet exist.

    Here we go again

    Necessity is the mother of invention.

    It wouldn't surprise me if post-COVID we get a period of sustained economic growth at pretty much record levels in recent decades.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 2,279
    edited September 9
    Andy_JS said:

    Donald Trump nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-54092960

    By Far Right Norwegian MP
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,396
    Stocky said:

    FF43 said:

    Stocky said:

    moonshine said:

    Project Moonshot is I guess the only way Bozza can see all his progeny on Christmas Day.

    Alternatively he could grow a fucking backbone, sack Hancock, Whitty and Vallance, and start to treat the country like grown ups.
    The thing that gets me about today`s tightening in restrictions is that R is thought to be at 1. Therefore the virus isn`t increasing in prevalance. The increase in infections must - I think - therefore be due to testing finding a higher proportion of infected people, perhaps because testing rates are skewed toward problem areas of the country. (Unless R is, in fact, higher than 1.)
    R is assumed to be greater than 1 now in England, between 0.9 and 1.4 in Scotland and between 1.1 and 1.6 in Northern Ireland.
    https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/
    Yes, but 0.9 - 1.1 taken over UK as a whole.
    Sorry England assumed to be greater than 1 was a comment I saw quoted on the news blog today, not from the link above, which presumably is not quite up-to-date
  • Boris Johnson believes a mass testing programme is “our only hope for avoiding a second national lockdown before a vaccine”, according to leaked official documents setting out plans for “Operation Moonshot”.

    The cynic in me wonders if this is serious, or if its just a case of signalling "we're going to do what it takes to sort out testing".
    But it's not.

    There's routine "test people who are ill, and people who they've met (whether they're ill or not), and isolate the infected, and break the chains" testing. Which the WHO have been pushing for months. Boring, ballsachingly boring. But effective against every other germy disease known to man.

    And there's Boris's Project. Everyone has a quick test every day, so they know if they have to stay home. It would be brilliant. Put all the thinking into the test device. Great if it can be done, but there's no sign that it can be.

    Like The App (whatever became of that?), this has the feel of a tech gimmick to save the government from actually thinking through the boring details of how to keep people safe. You could pay a lot of council contact tracers and bribe a lot of people to stay at home for the sums being suggested.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 2,279

    Stocky said:

    moonshine said:

    Project Moonshot is I guess the only way Bozza can see all his progeny on Christmas Day.

    Alternatively he could grow a fucking backbone, sack Hancock, Whitty and Vallance, and start to treat the country like grown ups.
    The thing that gets me about today`s tightening in restrictions is that R is thought to be at 1. Therefore the virus isn`t increasing in prevalance. The increase in infections must - I think - therefore be due to testing finding a higher proportion of infected people, perhaps because testing rates are skewed toward problem areas of the country. (Unless R is, in fact, higher than 1.)
    We were being told repeatedly at the end of the 12 week lockdown when the numbers were finally bottoming out because the country had all stayed indoors and only ventured out for food that R was still around 0.9. It never really got much less than that, nationally at least (regionally it might have been a bit lower).

    There's no way it's not more than 1 now, not with the attempts in the last couple of months to try and have most things opened up again.

    And ultimately 1.1, 1.5, does it make much difference? They're still exponential growth, just different speeds.
    Well it would do if the Government was still following the policy of "flatten the curve", "don't overwhelm the capacity of the NHS". Nobody actually knows what their objectives are any more. Any if nobody knows the objectives, how do you measure their approaches against them for effectiveness?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 3,302
    edited September 9

    Stocky said:

    moonshine said:

    Project Moonshot is I guess the only way Bozza can see all his progeny on Christmas Day.

    Alternatively he could grow a fucking backbone, sack Hancock, Whitty and Vallance, and start to treat the country like grown ups.
    The thing that gets me about today`s tightening in restrictions is that R is thought to be at 1. Therefore the virus isn`t increasing in prevalance. The increase in infections must - I think - therefore be due to testing finding a higher proportion of infected people, perhaps because testing rates are skewed toward problem areas of the country. (Unless R is, in fact, higher than 1.)
    We were being told repeatedly at the end of the 12 week lockdown when the numbers were finally bottoming out because the country had all stayed indoors and only ventured out for food that R was still around 0.9. It never really got much less than that, nationally at least (regionally it might have been a bit lower).

    There's no way it's not more than 1 now, not with the attempts in the last couple of months to try and have most things opened up again.

    And ultimately 1.1, 1.5, does it make much difference? They're still exponential growth, just different speeds.
    Well, if it is more than 1, but the majority of cases are not being picked up because there are no/only mild symptoms and so are unreported AND hospitalisations are not rising then does it matter?

    This could develop into a key question over then next few weeks. (I know hospitalisations increased last week, but from a very low base after months of dramatic falls.)
  • StockyStocky Posts: 3,302
    alex_ said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Donald Trump nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-54092960

    By Far Right Norwegian MP
    Could it still have cut-through though? Trump will no doubt use this to big himself up.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 13,639

    Boris Johnson believes a mass testing programme is “our only hope for avoiding a second national lockdown before a vaccine”, according to leaked official documents setting out plans for “Operation Moonshot”.

    The cynic in me wonders if this is serious, or if its just a case of signalling "we're going to do what it takes to sort out testing".
    But it's not.

    There's routine "test people who are ill, and people who they've met (whether they're ill or not), and isolate the infected, and break the chains" testing. Which the WHO have been pushing for months. Boring, ballsachingly boring. But effective against every other germy disease known to man.

    And there's Boris's Project. Everyone has a quick test every day, so they know if they have to stay home. It would be brilliant. Put all the thinking into the test device. Great if it can be done, but there's no sign that it can be.

    Like The App (whatever became of that?), this has the feel of a tech gimmick to save the government from actually thinking through the boring details of how to keep people safe. You could pay a lot of council contact tracers and bribe a lot of people to stay at home for the sums being suggested.
    Agreed. This is more Boris Bullshit.

    File alongside 'Oven-ready Deal' and 'World-beating App'.
  • Stocky said:

    moonshine said:

    Project Moonshot is I guess the only way Bozza can see all his progeny on Christmas Day.

    Alternatively he could grow a fucking backbone, sack Hancock, Whitty and Vallance, and start to treat the country like grown ups.
    The thing that gets me about today`s tightening in restrictions is that R is thought to be at 1. Therefore the virus isn`t increasing in prevalance. The increase in infections must - I think - therefore be due to testing finding a higher proportion of infected people, perhaps because testing rates are skewed toward problem areas of the country. (Unless R is, in fact, higher than 1.)
    I think R is higher than 1 currently, the cases in the last 3-4 days don't align with an R of 1 or the ONS survey IMO. I think the problem is that R measures and the ONS measures are reported a couple of weeks after the fact whereas the Government is responding to what it is already seeing happening.
This discussion has been closed.