Dem 368171 (+9548) GOP 116852 (+4619) IND 223278 (+7478)
There were 45637 ballots total requested at the same point in 2016.
@Pulpstar Do you know you can get the returns as well? So you can see on what date everyone who has requestesd a ballot has returned it.
So 791 Registered Democrats have returned a valid ballot Only 179 Registered GOP have returned a ballot 367 Independent, Libertarian or Greens have returned a ballot
The North Carolina data is bonkers open. I'm getting this data from a spread sheet with names and addresses. This is all cross referencable with previous elections so you can track relative performance.
Can you compare how these voters have switched since 2016?
We could then calculate the swing since 2016?
Obviously we can't see how they voted but we can check to see who has switched registration. We can also compare the response rate of people who requested a postal vote in 2016 vs the exact same people who have requested a postal vote in 2020.
We must look like total imbeciles to the rest of the world right now. Good grief.
A world which has recently elected populists from Brazil to Mexico, Poland to the USA, India to the Philippines to South Africa and Greece?
We’ve agreed and signed a deal to much acclaim and boasting, won a huge majority off the back of it, and now we’ve decided it’s actually sh*t and thrown our toys out of the pram.
Populism has nothing to do with it. Boris’s “oven ready” Brexit was popular enough for him to win a 80-seat majority off the back of it. He’s now trashed his flagship policy. We look like imbeciles.
At least one prominent poster has repeatedly criticised electoral systems which are more likely to lead to coalition governments than FPTP. The justification being that parties entering into a coalition ditch certain policies over which the electorate has no say.
In the last 3 days this government has ditched an important policy, over which the electorate has no say, and this is despite a solid majority brought about by FPTP.
The difference being that ditching ones own flagship policies in this way under single party government is remarkably rare. Which is one reason why we are all talking about it. Under Coalitions it is the norm.
If you are attacking the Tories for doing this on the grounds of betraying their voters then you certainly shouldn't be touting the idea of coalitions.
Dem 368171 (+9548) GOP 116852 (+4619) IND 223278 (+7478)
There were 45637 ballots total requested at the same point in 2016.
@Pulpstar Do you know you can get the returns as well? So you can see on what date everyone who has requestesd a ballot has returned it.
So 791 Registered Democrats have returned a valid ballot Only 179 Registered GOP have returned a ballot 367 Independent, Libertarian or Greens have returned a ballot
The North Carolina data is bonkers open. I'm getting this data from a spread sheet with names and addresses. This is all cross referencable with previous elections so you can track relative performance.
That's worse than 18th C stuff, before the secret ballot. We had a discussion the other day about how the US needed taking aside and showing how a real democracy worked.
I've got that file now - Trump has a likely vote from Dublin, Ireland !
The ideal test would be one you can do at home and takes a few minutes without having to send it to a lab. I wonder if that is even feasible?
Like a pregnancy test? Not sure I see why not, in principle.
Pregnancy tests are much simpler than Covid tests as it's just a test for a hormone in the unprocessed urine. Conveniently, there's a particular hormone which is only present when a woman is pregnant, so it's fairly simple to get a chemical which reacts with that hormone but not with other stuff commonly present in pee.
However, it's not that simple with Covid - there's quite a lot of processing involved to extract and chemically process the RNA before you even get to test.
While I agree that it's not by any means simple, I suspect that it's not beyond the realms of possibility.
The government wants you to continue to slave away to pay their salaries and keep their monstrously authoritarian government afloat, just without any of the things that made life worth living.
No assembly. No protests. No seeing relatives. No seeing grandchildren. No nioghts out. No shagging. Completely masked up. With 'COVID marshalls' policing the whole thing and snitching on you to the law.
Dem 368171 (+9548) GOP 116852 (+4619) IND 223278 (+7478)
There were 45637 ballots total requested at the same point in 2016.
@Pulpstar Do you know you can get the returns as well? So you can see on what date everyone who has requestesd a ballot has returned it.
So 791 Registered Democrats have returned a valid ballot Only 179 Registered GOP have returned a ballot 367 Independent, Libertarian or Greens have returned a ballot
The North Carolina data is bonkers open. I'm getting this data from a spread sheet with names and addresses. This is all cross referencable with previous elections so you can track relative performance.
Can you compare how these voters have switched since 2016?
We could then calculate the swing since 2016?
Obviously we can't see how they voted but we can check to see who has switched registration. We can also compare the response rate of people who requested a postal vote in 2016 vs the exact same people who have requested a postal vote in 2020.
No, there will be no hard border with Eire and no border in the Irish Sea under this government. Boris will block indyref2 and if Scotland goes under no deal to rejoin EU that means tariffs on Scottish exports to England and vice versa
How do you arrive at no border with Northern Ireland or Ireland, but a border with Scotland?
As if Scotland leaves the UK to rejoin the EU/EEA it will have to face the same tariffs the rest of the EU/EEA (including the Republic of Ireland) will face on export of their goods and services to England and Wales after a no trade deal Brexit.
Northern Ireland remains part of the UK so the UK government will minimise any border from GB to NI and from NI to Eire under the GFA
By default, yes. It's possible that losing at least two of your constituent nations AND becoming a rogue state as it did yesterday MIGHT shock England into deciding things can be handled better. So it joins EEA equivalent...
I've long believed that if you exhaust all the available options and requirements — respect the referendum, maintain the Union, no internal borders, frictionless trade with the EU — we would in a rational world come around to joining the EEA through EFTA or via a bespoke agreement. Perhaps Keir will do that when he becomes PM?
Me too... I always assumed the UK would end up in a form of the Vassal State for the reasons you give. It would contradict the reasons for Brexiting in the first place - taking back control, which is why it hasn't happened yet. I didn't expect Johnson's curve ball on the choosing a Withdrawal Agreement with an Irish Sea border. Given where we are now, I am much more pessimistic of it all going horribly wrong.
Key thing though is all this nonsense was set up by that fateful referendum decision in June 2016.
EEA is what all the logic points to, even now. And it's in the UK's interest to go there directly, rather than via 3-5-10 years of circling round the plughole of trying to do something else. And if EEA+/- is the endpoint, then it simply isn't compatible with Dom's Master Plan, so we might as well not bother with that.
I get the visceral need some have for a clean break, the freedom and culture always trump economics idea. (Though that's much easier to say early in the 21st century, when life, even at the bottom of the UK heap, is better than it is for many around the world.) But without wishing it, I forsee a huge humiliation a'coming. Accepting that we have to do this damn silly thing, do we really have to do it in this damn silly way?
EEA is Norway's baby so it will be a UK equivalent if it happens. Clearly worse than EU membership: you get all the constraints with none of the influence over things that matter to you. The opposite of "taking control". However if we accept EU membership is gone for good, which almost everyone does now, it is possible to have straight trade off between self interest of a close relationship with the rest of our continent and being able to do what we like as long as it's in isolation. I always assumed we would get to this point some stage. I am no longer confident that will be as the United Kingdom.
Dem 368171 (+9548) GOP 116852 (+4619) IND 223278 (+7478)
There were 45637 ballots total requested at the same point in 2016.
@Pulpstar Do you know you can get the returns as well? So you can see on what date everyone who has requestesd a ballot has returned it.
So 791 Registered Democrats have returned a valid ballot Only 179 Registered GOP have returned a ballot 367 Independent, Libertarian or Greens have returned a ballot
The North Carolina data is bonkers open. I'm getting this data from a spread sheet with names and addresses. This is all cross referencable with previous elections so you can track relative performance.
That's worse than 18th C stuff, before the secret ballot. We had a discussion the other day about how the US needed taking aside and showing how a real democracy worked.
I've got that file now - Trump has a likely vote from Dublin, Ireland !
That voter ought to be fairly easily identifiable!
BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches
It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.
It won't happen, not a chance. If the bill does not pass Johnson will have to resign. If you are going to announce to the world that your government no longer believes in international law and then you cannot deliver on that, you are finished. Tory MPs will understand that and put their party first. It's like the GOP with Trump. The Rubicon will be crossed.
In all this fury, might I tentativelly point out that the EU are not squeaky clean. I think the UK thought it had a last resort in the form of a Canada deal, then this ...
Is this the point that relationships soured beyond repair?
As far as I can tell, the only "promise" of a Canada-style deal that the EU ever made was a Canadian flag icon on a powerpoint presentation. It seems the UK government has put an awful lot of weight on a powerpoint slide that someone put together to demonstrate a hierarchy of plausible possible deals & the red lines that would have to be crossed in order to get them.
The idea that a single powerpoint slide ever counted as some kind of guarantee that the UK could pick and choose from the list of deals on that slide according to its choice of redlines seems something of a stretch.
and @Philip_Thompson continues to whine like a child and throw his toys out of the pram every day that the EU won’t give us the same deal as Canada. It’s really quite amusing.
LOL I'm not whining, I'm smiling. I literally just said how "delighted" I am and you think that's a whine? Do I need to accompany every post with a smiley face to show you my emotions? 😁
I am in a very good mood right now about how things are proceeding. This is what I have said for YEARS the Government to do on this site. Fantastic! Well done.
The whining seems to be people unhappy about "the rule of law" when if Parliament votes for this Act to go through, then this Act will be the law. No ifs, no buts.
I’ve already explained that “the rule of law” is not what you think it is - and yet you completely ignored it.
But regardless, you have been whining every day about the EU not giving us exactly what you want. I expect you to continue to do so.
"The rule of law" is that Parliament sets the law and we vote for MPs to set it how we want it setting.
We don't vote for foreign governments. That is why international law is subordinate to domestic law.
Your ignorance is either deliberate, or surprising.
He is a troll. It is why I never respond to anything he posts.
I am not sure he is a troll, he's just mad.
Possibly... I prefer to think he just enjoys winding people up on here.
Where I part company from Philip in this direction is the problem in democracy (everything has its problems; democracy's problems are (usually) far outweighed by its benefits): the danger of the tyranny of the majority.
That's where the rule of law comes in. Strong laws, strong institutions, and democracy combined usually means that this danger can be sidestepped.
The concept that Parliament can run roughshod over everything, including law, endangers that. This is international law, which shouldn't be directly dangerous for this (ignoring, for now, that under our system, it's the tyranny of the largest plurality; not even the tyranny of the majority), but it is alarming that the Government can even say, with a straight face, that they're willing to break the law.
Reality is also that almost all offices are designed for people to work much closer to each other than is acceptable under Covid conditions. Judging by the companies I deal with they are saying that to comply with Covid constraints they will be able to get no more than 25-50% of their workforce back in.
So this idea that the majority of the population should get back into the office is simply a pipe dream.
No, there will be no hard border with Eire and no border in the Irish Sea under this government. Boris will block indyref2 and if Scotland goes under no deal to rejoin EU that means tariffs on Scottish exports to England and vice versa
How do you arrive at no border with Northern Ireland or Ireland, but a border with Scotland?
As if Scotland leaves the UK to rejoin the EU/EEA it will have to face the same tariffs the rest of the EU/EEA (including the Republic of Ireland) will face on export of their goods and services to England and Wales after a no trade deal Brexit.
Northern Ireland remains part of the UK so the UK government will minimise any border from GB to NI and from NI to Eire under the GFA
By default, yes. It's possible that losing at least two of your constituent nations AND becoming a rogue state as it did yesterday MIGHT shock England into deciding things can be handled better. So it joins EEA equivalent...
I've long believed that if you exhaust all the available options and requirements — respect the referendum, maintain the Union, no internal borders, frictionless trade with the EU — we would in a rational world come around to joining the EEA through EFTA or via a bespoke agreement. Perhaps Keir will do that when he becomes PM?
Me too... I always assumed the UK would end up in a form of the Vassal State for the reasons you give. It would contradict the reasons for Brexiting in the first place - taking back control, which is why it hasn't happened yet. I didn't expect Johnson's curve ball on the choosing a Withdrawal Agreement with an Irish Sea border. Given where we are now, I am much more pessimistic of it all going horribly wrong.
Key thing though is all this nonsense was set up by that fateful referendum decision in June 2016.
EEA is what all the logic points to, even now. And it's in the UK's interest to go there directly, rather than via 3-5-10 years of circling round the plughole of trying to do something else. And if EEA+/- is the endpoint, then it simply isn't compatible with Dom's Master Plan, so we might as well not bother with that.
I get the visceral need some have for a clean break, the freedom and culture always trump economics idea. (Though that's much easier to say early in the 21st century, when life, even at the bottom of the UK heap, is better than it is for many around the world.) But without wishing it, I forsee a huge humiliation a'coming. Accepting that we have to do this damn silly thing, do we really have to do it in this damn silly way?
EEA is Norway's baby so it will be a UK equivalent if it happens. Clearly worse than EU membership: you get all the constraints with none of the influence over things that matter to you. The opposite of "taking control". However if we accept EU membership is gone for good, which almost everyone does now, it is possible to have straight trade off between self interest of a close relationship with the rest of our continent and being able to do what we like as long as it's in isolation. I always assumed we would get to this point some stage. I am no longer confident that will be as the United Kingdom.
More likely it will only be as a United Kingdom, without Scottish MPs the chances of Starmer becoming PM and shifting to a softer EEA style Brexit are very remote, hard Brexit with a re elected Tories in England and Wales is likely
Reality is also that almost all offices are designed for people to work much closer to each other than is acceptable under Covid conditions. Judging by the companies I deal with they are saying that to comply with Covid constraints they will be able to get no more than 25-50% of their workforce back in.
So this idea that the majority of the population should get back into the office is simply a pipe dream.
It's not being in the office, so much as getting to it, surely. Looking at the trains in the Chelmsford area, social distancing is likely to be difficult, although I did hear of some research which said that one had to spend seven hours on a train to be likely to be infected. No, I don't know exactly what was meant, either.
This actually makes complete sense. People will only accept these restrictions if they believe that they are necessary and temporary - so they have to talk about changes in the near-future that will make them temporary.
If people believe that these restrictions will be permanent then they will not follow them.
The government's plan is to keep this limbo going indefinitely, until a vaccine arrives. The date for a vaccine arriving keeps on being pushed back. I no longer think the strategy is viable.
I'd prefer an elimination strategy, but even going for herd immunity will eventually be better than an endless purgatory.
We need a debate on the government's strategy, rather than the pointless carping about the minutiae of the tactics.
Since when have you needed more than 6 people to celebrate Christmas?
But in an extended family of more than 6 who gets excluded? An impossible decision to take and so the whole thing will be called off for all but a few.
Boris Johnson. The man who lied to everyone to get elected. The man who couldn't rise to the occasion when coronavirus came calling. The man who cancelled Christmas.
Since when have you needed more than 6 people to celebrate Christmas?
Where on earth do you come up with these comments.
Well I don't know about you BigG but I cannot fit many more than 6 around my dining room table anyway
We normally have 10-14 or so. There are 6 in our household alone. Which means we can have as many as 0 guests from another household at the moment.
We had been planning on having my brother-in-law plus his two children and his son's girlfriend her for Christmas; that's now been kyboshed. Pity. We always enjoy a large family Christmas.
There is a hitherto unnoticed sleeping army of "retired environmental officers?" Have they been lying dormant in some underground lair awaiting the call to arise!? This is like one of the non-Russell T Davies Torchwoods.
Since when have you needed more than 6 people to celebrate Christmas?
Where on earth do you come up with these comments.
Well I don't know about you BigG but I cannot fit many more than 6 around my dining room table anyway
We normally have 10-14 or so. There are 6 in our household alone. Which means we can have as many as 0 guests from another household at the moment.
We had been planning on having my brother-in-law plus his two children and his son's girlfriend her for Christmas; that's now been kyboshed. Pity. We always enjoy a large family Christmas.
But it does mean not seeing the in-laws. So count your blessings.
This actually makes complete sense. People will only accept these restrictions if they believe that they are necessary and temporary - so they have to talk about changes in the near-future that will make them temporary.
If people believe that these restrictions will be permanent then they will not follow them.
The government's plan is to keep this limbo going indefinitely, until a vaccine arrives. The date for a vaccine arriving keeps on being pushed back. I no longer think the strategy is viable.
I'd prefer an elimination strategy, but even going for herd immunity will eventually be better than an endless purgatory.
We need a debate on the government's strategy, rather than the pointless carping about the minutiae of the tactics.
I think the strategy (here and elsewhere) is heavily informed by the expectation of a vaccine in the first half of 2021. If a vaccine was not expected for years I think we would be going with a herd immunity approach. Let the virus spread but seek to control it within NHS capacity. As it is, the objective is to contain it well below this.
This actually makes complete sense. People will only accept these restrictions if they believe that they are necessary and temporary - so they have to talk about changes in the near-future that will make them temporary.
If people believe that these restrictions will be permanent then they will not follow them.
The government's plan is to keep this limbo going indefinitely, until a vaccine arrives. The date for a vaccine arriving keeps on being pushed back. I no longer think the strategy is viable.
I'd prefer an elimination strategy, but even going for herd immunity will eventually be better than an endless purgatory.
We need a debate on the government's strategy, rather than the pointless carping about the minutiae of the tactics.
I think the strategy (here and elsewhere) is heavily informed by the expectation of a vaccine in the first half of 2021. If a vaccine was not expected for years I think we would be going with a herd immunity approach. Let the virus spread but seek to control it within NHS capacity. As it is, the objective is to contain it well below this.
WTO Brexit in January and a vaccine in the Spring - next year should be a good year for economic growth.
Since when have you needed more than 6 people to celebrate Christmas?
But in an extended family of more than 6 who gets excluded? An impossible decision to take and so the whole thing will be called off for all but a few.
Boris Johnson. The man who lied to everyone to get elected. The man who couldn't rise to the occasion when coronavirus came calling. The man who cancelled Christmas.
We used to go for Christmas to my grandparents when they were alive with my parents but not their siblings and alternated each year so they might go the other year. There were a total of 6, 2 grandparents, 2 parents, 2 children. If there are more than 2 children then you just have to Zoom or invite a lonely neighbour
This actually makes complete sense. People will only accept these restrictions if they believe that they are necessary and temporary - so they have to talk about changes in the near-future that will make them temporary.
If people believe that these restrictions will be permanent then they will not follow them.
The government's plan is to keep this limbo going indefinitely, until a vaccine arrives. The date for a vaccine arriving keeps on being pushed back. I no longer think the strategy is viable.
I'd prefer an elimination strategy, but even going for herd immunity will eventually be better than an endless purgatory.
We need a debate on the government's strategy, rather than the pointless carping about the minutiae of the tactics.
I think the strategy (here and elsewhere) is heavily informed by the expectation of a vaccine in the first half of 2021. If a vaccine was not expected for years I think we would be going with a herd immunity approach. Let the virus spread but seek to control it within NHS capacity. As it is, the objective is to contain it well below this.
WTO Brexit in January and a vaccine in the Spring - next year should be a good year for economic growth.
This actually makes complete sense. People will only accept these restrictions if they believe that they are necessary and temporary - so they have to talk about changes in the near-future that will make them temporary.
If people believe that these restrictions will be permanent then they will not follow them.
The government's plan is to keep this limbo going indefinitely, until a vaccine arrives. The date for a vaccine arriving keeps on being pushed back. I no longer think the strategy is viable.
I'd prefer an elimination strategy, but even going for herd immunity will eventually be better than an endless purgatory.
We need a debate on the government's strategy, rather than the pointless carping about the minutiae of the tactics.
I think the strategy (here and elsewhere) is heavily informed by the expectation of a vaccine in the first half of 2021. If a vaccine was not expected for years I think we would be going with a herd immunity approach. Let the virus spread but seek to control it within NHS capacity. As it is, the objective is to contain it well below this.
WTO Brexit in January and a vaccine in the Spring - next year should be a good year for economic growth.
June, I think, for the vaccine so more early Summer. I wonder if it will immunize against Borisophilia as well as corona? You do get odd little side effects sometimes and they can be benign.
The government wants you to continue to slave away to pay their salaries and keep their monstrously authoritarian government afloat, just without any of the things that made life worth living.
No assembly. No protests. No seeing relatives. No seeing grandchildren. No nioghts out. No shagging. Completely masked up. With 'COVID marshalls' policing the whole thing and snitching on you to the law.
Its a f8cking police state.
Don;t say you weren't warned.
Nah. By being that OTT, you're making me sympathetic to Johnson, which is not my natural state. I don't need to shag more than 5 people at a time, do you? Possibly LadyG might find it cramped her style, but most of us can manage seeing relatives, partners and anyone else in groups of 6 or fewer.
Comments
https://www.ncsbe.gov/results-data
https://www.ncsbe.gov/results-data/absentee-data
https://dl.ncsbe.gov/?prefix=data/
If you are attacking the Tories for doing this on the grounds of betraying their voters then you certainly shouldn't be touting the idea of coalitions.
However, the point coming out of this conference is that HMG is talking of Spring for normality and that is new and unsurprising
Yeehaw!!
The government wants you to continue to slave away to pay their salaries and keep their monstrously authoritarian government afloat, just without any of the things that made life worth living.
No assembly. No protests. No seeing relatives. No seeing grandchildren. No nioghts out. No shagging. Completely masked up. With 'COVID marshalls' policing the whole thing and snitching on you to the law.
Its a f8cking police state.
Don;t say you weren't warned.
Probably sensible, but not popular.
That's where the rule of law comes in. Strong laws, strong institutions, and democracy combined usually means that this danger can be sidestepped.
The concept that Parliament can run roughshod over everything, including law, endangers that. This is international law, which shouldn't be directly dangerous for this (ignoring, for now, that under our system, it's the tyranny of the largest plurality; not even the tyranny of the majority), but it is alarming that the Government can even say, with a straight face, that they're willing to break the law.
So this idea that the majority of the population should get back into the office is simply a pipe dream.
64.6
It was just a mask right? oh go on just wear the mask.
Now you will be under house arrest if you do not do things the government's way.
No daily test? home prison. No vaccine? home prison. Not 'traceable' Home prison.
All policed by your friendly local COVID Marshall. Or NKVD lite for short.
No, I don't know exactly what was meant, either.
*innocent face*
https://twitter.com/paul__johnson/status/1303672349053595649
NEW THREAD
If people believe that these restrictions will be permanent then they will not follow them.
The government's plan is to keep this limbo going indefinitely, until a vaccine arrives. The date for a vaccine arriving keeps on being pushed back. I no longer think the strategy is viable.
I'd prefer an elimination strategy, but even going for herd immunity will eventually be better than an endless purgatory.
We need a debate on the government's strategy, rather than the pointless carping about the minutiae of the tactics.
Its a despots charter.
Police powers to breaking up gatherings. People being encouraged to inform on neighbours (that old gestapo tactic) A new army of snitches.
I never thought I would see anything like this in our country.
Its quite incredible.
I expect many have more and innovate the seating
And my wife and I have already accepted that we will have a smaller Xmas than before this year
Boris Johnson. The man who lied to everyone to get elected. The man who couldn't rise to the occasion when coronavirus came calling. The man who cancelled Christmas.
We had been planning on having my brother-in-law plus his two children and his son's girlfriend her for Christmas; that's now been kyboshed. Pity. We always enjoy a large family Christmas.
Have they been lying dormant in some underground lair awaiting the call to arise!?
This is like one of the non-Russell T Davies Torchwoods.
https://www.cam.ac.uk/news/cambridge-university-to-provide-weekly-coronavirus-testing-for-students-resident-in-colleges
https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1303708758036553728
But it was not independent.
Anyway, must be off.