No, there will be no hard border with Eire and no border in the Irish Sea under this government. Boris will block indyref2 and if Scotland goes under no deal to rejoin EU that means tariffs on Scottish exports to England and vice versa
How do you arrive at no border with Northern Ireland or Ireland, but a border with Scotland?
As if Scotland leaves the UK to rejoin the EU/EEA it will have to face the same tariffs the rest of the EU/EEA (including the Republic of Ireland) will face on export of their goods and services to England and Wales after a no trade deal Brexit.
Northern Ireland remains part of the UK so the UK government will minimise any border from GB to NI and from NI to Eire under the GFA
No, there will be no hard border with Eire and no border in the Irish Sea under this government. Boris will block indyref2 and if Scotland goes under no deal to rejoin EU that means tariffs on Scottish exports to England and vice versa
How do you arrive at no border with Northern Ireland or Ireland, but a border with Scotland?
As if Scotland leaves the UK to rejoin the EU it will have to face the same tariffs the rest of the EU/EEA (including the Republic of Ireland) will face on export of their goods to England and Wales after a no trade deal Brexit.
Northern Ireland remains part of the UK so the UK government will minimise any border from GB to NI
I have to say I don't think I can recall anything the goverment has done before that has so little support on here. Even the prorogation had more support. Well done Boris, you are setting new records.
No, there will be no hard border with Eire and no border in the Irish Sea under this government. Boris will block indyref2 and if Scotland goes under no deal to rejoin EU that means tariffs on Scottish exports to England and vice versa
How do you arrive at no border with Northern Ireland or Ireland, but a border with Scotland?
As if Scotland leaves the UK to rejoin the EU/EEA it will have to face the same tariffs the rest of the EU/EEA (including the Republic of Ireland) will face on export of their goods and services to England and Wales after a no trade deal Brexit.
Northern Ireland remains part of the UK so the UK government will minimise any border from GB to NI and from NI to Eire under the GFA
By default, yes. It's possible that losing at least two of your constituent nations AND becoming a rogue state as it did yesterday MIGHT shock England into deciding things can be handled better. So it joins EEA equivalent...
Blackford: The PM is a liar Speaker: I ask you to withdraw it Blackford: I do not withdraw it Speaker: I accept that you have withdrawn it.
Eh?
The Speaker could have named Blackford - but that would have simply helped the nationalist grievance mongers, so it was probably the least worst option...
Running scared so prefer to add another lie to the circus
No, there will be no hard border with Eire and no border in the Irish Sea under this government. Boris will block indyref2 and if Scotland goes under no deal to rejoin EU that means tariffs on Scottish exports to England and vice versa
How do you arrive at no border with Northern Ireland or Ireland, but a border with Scotland?
As if Scotland leaves the UK to rejoin the EU/EEA it will have to face the same tariffs the rest of the EU/EEA (including the Republic of Ireland) will face on export of their goods and services to England and Wales after a no trade deal Brexit.
Northern Ireland remains part of the UK so the UK government will minimise any border from GB to NI and from NI to Eire under the GFA
By default, yes. It's possible that losing at least two of your constituent nations AND becoming a rogue state as it did yesterday MIGHT shock England into deciding things can be handled better. So it joins EEA equivalent...
I've long believed that if you exhaust all the available options and requirements — respect the referendum, maintain the Union, no internal borders, frictionless trade with the EU — we would in a rational world come around to joining the EEA through EFTA or via a bespoke agreement. Perhaps Keir will do that when he becomes PM?
No, there will be no hard border with Eire and no border in the Irish Sea under this government. Boris will block indyref2 and if Scotland goes under no deal to rejoin EU that means tariffs on Scottish exports to England and vice versa
How do you arrive at no border with Northern Ireland or Ireland, but a border with Scotland?
As if Scotland leaves the UK to rejoin the EU/EEA it will have to face the same tariffs the rest of the EU/EEA (including the Republic of Ireland) will face on export of their goods and services to England and Wales after a no trade deal Brexit.
Northern Ireland remains part of the UK so the UK government will minimise any border from GB to NI and from NI to Eire under the GFA
And of course vice versa. Mind it'll bring back the days of the Border Reivers, smuggling across the Cheviots.
No, there will be no hard border with Eire and no border in the Irish Sea under this government. Boris will block indyref2 and if Scotland goes under no deal to rejoin EU that means tariffs on Scottish exports to England and vice versa
How do you arrive at no border with Northern Ireland or Ireland, but a border with Scotland?
As if Scotland leaves the UK to rejoin the EU/EEA it will have to face the same tariffs the rest of the EU/EEA (including the Republic of Ireland) will face on export of their goods and services to England and Wales after a no trade deal Brexit.
Northern Ireland remains part of the UK so the UK government will minimise any border from GB to NI and from NI to Eire under the GFA
By default, yes. It's possible that losing at least two of your constituent nations AND becoming a rogue state as it did yesterday MIGHT shock England into deciding things can be handled better. So it joins EEA equivalent...
Actually if Scotland goes it increases the chances England and Wales will never rejoin the EEA as without Scotland the Leave majority would be much bigger in the remainder of the UK and that would be even more pronounced if NI left too, England and Wales both having voted Leave. Plus all the SNP MPs would go from Westminster who Starmer probably needs to back him to become PM and shift to a soft Brexit deal with the EU
That's a nowcast, I think if the idiot rioters keep going then WI flips.
Although this isn't a crazy map as a possible outcome if the race narrows (and you could make an argument it will probably narrow as we approach the line as Trump is a pretty formidable campaigner), it seems harsh on Biden if you mean right now. I'd see this more as a forecast than a nowcast.
The most recent four polls in North Carolina show a narrow Biden lead, averages tend to show a narrow lead for him in Florida, and no pollsters have anything but a Biden lead in Arizona just now (some fairly big, some smaller). It's going against the evidence to say Biden right now doesn't have a narrow lead in at least one or two of those.
No, there will be no hard border with Eire and no border in the Irish Sea under this government. Boris will block indyref2 and if Scotland goes under no deal to rejoin EU that means tariffs on Scottish exports to England and vice versa
How do you arrive at no border with Northern Ireland or Ireland, but a border with Scotland?
As if Scotland leaves the UK to rejoin the EU/EEA it will have to face the same tariffs the rest of the EU/EEA (including the Republic of Ireland) will face on export of their goods and services to England and Wales after a no trade deal Brexit.
Northern Ireland remains part of the UK so the UK government will minimise any border from GB to NI and from NI to Eire under the GFA
By default, yes. It's possible that losing at least two of your constituent nations AND becoming a rogue state as it did yesterday MIGHT shock England into deciding things can be handled better. So it joins EEA equivalent...
I've long believed that if you exhaust all the available options and requirements — respect the referendum, maintain the Union, no internal borders, frictionless trade with the EU — we would in a rational world come around to joining the EEA through EFTA or via a bespoke agreement. Perhaps Keir will do that when he becomes PM?
No, there will be no hard border with Eire and no border in the Irish Sea under this government. Boris will block indyref2 and if Scotland goes under no deal to rejoin EU that means tariffs on Scottish exports to England and vice versa
How do you arrive at no border with Northern Ireland or Ireland, but a border with Scotland?
As if Scotland leaves the UK to rejoin the EU/EEA it will have to face the same tariffs the rest of the EU/EEA (including the Republic of Ireland) will face on export of their goods and services to England and Wales after a no trade deal Brexit.
Northern Ireland remains part of the UK so the UK government will minimise any border from GB to NI and from NI to Eire under the GFA
By default, yes. It's possible that losing at least two of your constituent nations AND becoming a rogue state as it did yesterday MIGHT shock England into deciding things can be handled better. So it joins EEA equivalent...
Actually if Scotland goes it increases the chances England and Wales will never rejoin the EEA as without Scotland the Leave majority would be much bigger in the remainder of the UK and that would be even more pronounced if NI left too, England and Wales both having voted Leave. Plus all the SNP MPs would go from Westminster who Starmer probably needs to back him to become PM and shift to a soft Brexit deal with the EU
The Leave majority *now* compared to the Leave majority after a year of “no deal” is impossible to compare.
That's a nowcast, I think if the idiot rioters keep going then WI flips.
Although this isn't a crazy map as a possible outcome if the race narrows (and you could make an argument it will probably narrow as we approach the line as Trump is a pretty formidable campaigner), it seems harsh on Biden if you mean right now. I'd see this more as a forecast than a nowcast.
The most recent four polls in North Carolina show a narrow Biden lead, averages tend to show a narrow lead for him in Florida, and no pollsters have anything but a Biden lead in Arizona just now (some fairly big, some smaller). It's going against the evidence to say Biden right now doesn't have a narrow lead in at least one or two of those.
I'm allocating a majority of DKs to Trump as shy voters.
No, there will be no hard border with Eire and no border in the Irish Sea under this government. Boris will block indyref2 and if Scotland goes under no deal to rejoin EU that means tariffs on Scottish exports to England and vice versa
How do you arrive at no border with Northern Ireland or Ireland, but a border with Scotland?
As if Scotland leaves the UK to rejoin the EU/EEA it will have to face the same tariffs the rest of the EU/EEA (including the Republic of Ireland) will face on export of their goods and services to England and Wales after a no trade deal Brexit.
Northern Ireland remains part of the UK so the UK government will minimise any border from GB to NI and from NI to Eire under the GFA
By default, yes. It's possible that losing at least two of your constituent nations AND becoming a rogue state as it did yesterday MIGHT shock England into deciding things can be handled better. So it joins EEA equivalent...
I've long believed that if you exhaust all the available options and requirements — respect the referendum, maintain the Union, no internal borders, frictionless trade with the EU — we would in a rational world come around to joining the EEA through EFTA or via a bespoke agreement. Perhaps Keir will do that when he becomes PM?
Me too... I always assumed the UK would end up in a form of the Vassal State for the reasons you give. It would contradict the reasons for Brexiting in the first place - taking back control, which is why it hasn't happened yet. I didn't expect Johnson's curve ball on the choosing a Withdrawal Agreement with an Irish Sea border. Given where we are now, I am much more pessimistic of it all going horribly wrong.
Key thing though is all this nonsense was set up by that fateful referendum decision in June 2016.
No, there will be no hard border with Eire and no border in the Irish Sea under this government. Boris will block indyref2 and if Scotland goes under no deal to rejoin EU that means tariffs on Scottish exports to England and vice versa
How do you arrive at no border with Northern Ireland or Ireland, but a border with Scotland?
As if Scotland leaves the UK to rejoin the EU/EEA it will have to face the same tariffs the rest of the EU/EEA (including the Republic of Ireland) will face on export of their goods and services to England and Wales after a no trade deal Brexit.
Northern Ireland remains part of the UK so the UK government will minimise any border from GB to NI and from NI to Eire under the GFA
By default, yes. It's possible that losing at least two of your constituent nations AND becoming a rogue state as it did yesterday MIGHT shock England into deciding things can be handled better. So it joins EEA equivalent...
Actually if Scotland goes it increases the chances England and Wales will never rejoin the EEA as without Scotland the Leave majority would be much bigger in the remainder of the UK and that would be even more pronounced if NI left too, England and Wales both having voted Leave. Plus all the SNP MPs would go from Westminster who Starmer probably needs to back him to become PM and shift to a soft Brexit deal with the EU
The Leave majority *now* compared to the Leave majority after a year of “no deal” is impossible to compare.
Under FPTP it only needs 40-45% for a majority for No Deal for ever, not even 50%+ as in the referendum.
No, there will be no hard border with Eire and no border in the Irish Sea under this government. Boris will block indyref2 and if Scotland goes under no deal to rejoin EU that means tariffs on Scottish exports to England and vice versa
How do you arrive at no border with Northern Ireland or Ireland, but a border with Scotland?
As if Scotland leaves the UK to rejoin the EU/EEA it will have to face the same tariffs the rest of the EU/EEA (including the Republic of Ireland) will face on export of their goods and services to England and Wales after a no trade deal Brexit.
Northern Ireland remains part of the UK so the UK government will minimise any border from GB to NI and from NI to Eire under the GFA
By default, yes. It's possible that losing at least two of your constituent nations AND becoming a rogue state as it did yesterday MIGHT shock England into deciding things can be handled better. So it joins EEA equivalent...
Actually if Scotland goes it increases the chances England and Wales will never rejoin the EEA as without Scotland the Leave majority would be much bigger in the remainder of the UK and that would be even more pronounced if NI left too, England and Wales both having voted Leave. Plus all the SNP MPs would go from Westminster who Starmer probably needs to back him to become PM and shift to a soft Brexit deal with the EU
The Leave majority *now* compared to the Leave majority after a year of “no deal” is impossible to compare.
Under FPTP it only needs 40-45% for a majority for No Deal for ever, not even 50%+ as in the referendum.
England voted 53.4% Leave, Wales 52.5% Leave
I repeat my previous comment.
The Leave majority *now* compared to the Leave majority after a year of “no deal” is impossible to compare.
No, there will be no hard border with Eire and no border in the Irish Sea under this government. Boris will block indyref2 and if Scotland goes under no deal to rejoin EU that means tariffs on Scottish exports to England and vice versa
How do you arrive at no border with Northern Ireland or Ireland, but a border with Scotland?
As if Scotland leaves the UK to rejoin the EU/EEA it will have to face the same tariffs the rest of the EU/EEA (including the Republic of Ireland) will face on export of their goods and services to England and Wales after a no trade deal Brexit.
Northern Ireland remains part of the UK so the UK government will minimise any border from GB to NI and from NI to Eire under the GFA
By default, yes. It's possible that losing at least two of your constituent nations AND becoming a rogue state as it did yesterday MIGHT shock England into deciding things can be handled better. So it joins EEA equivalent...
Actually if Scotland goes it increases the chances England and Wales will never rejoin the EEA as without Scotland the Leave majority would be much bigger in the remainder of the UK and that would be even more pronounced if NI left too, England and Wales both having voted Leave. Plus all the SNP MPs would go from Westminster who Starmer probably needs to back him to become PM and shift to a soft Brexit deal with the EU
The Leave majority *now* compared to the Leave majority after a year of “no deal” is impossible to compare.
Nothing is possible to compare without a Tardis. If we go to no deal now then that doesn't last forever - if after a couple of years people are happy with the arrangements then the next election will be fought on non-Brexit issues and life will move on. If people are unhappy a party can put a manifesto pledge to change arrangements.
Dem 368171 (+9548) GOP 116852 (+4619) IND 223278 (+7478)
There were 45637 ballots total requested at the same point in 2016.
Trump has really shot himself in his foot with his attitude to postal ballots, hasn't he?
Unless, I suppose, GOP people really do vote in person while his lawyers can ensure a couple of percent of the (much more Democrat) postal vote is excluded on various technicalities.
I'd assume he can't target individual Democrat votes for exclusion (i.e. it's blind to who was actually voted for), but his lawyers can generally target postal votes if he is confident that means excluding far more Democrats than Republicans in practice.
It's the same with making it hard for particular communities to register or suppressing black turnout via social media fake news - yes, he'll lose a few votes himself that way, but that's fine as long as the group he is targeting is mainly (albeit not exclusively) Democrat.
No, there will be no hard border with Eire and no border in the Irish Sea under this government. Boris will block indyref2 and if Scotland goes under no deal to rejoin EU that means tariffs on Scottish exports to England and vice versa
How do you arrive at no border with Northern Ireland or Ireland, but a border with Scotland?
As if Scotland leaves the UK to rejoin the EU/EEA it will have to face the same tariffs the rest of the EU/EEA (including the Republic of Ireland) will face on export of their goods and services to England and Wales after a no trade deal Brexit.
Northern Ireland remains part of the UK so the UK government will minimise any border from GB to NI and from NI to Eire under the GFA
By default, yes. It's possible that losing at least two of your constituent nations AND becoming a rogue state as it did yesterday MIGHT shock England into deciding things can be handled better. So it joins EEA equivalent...
Actually if Scotland goes it increases the chances England and Wales will never rejoin the EEA as without Scotland the Leave majority would be much bigger in the remainder of the UK and that would be even more pronounced if NI left too, England and Wales both having voted Leave. Plus all the SNP MPs would go from Westminster who Starmer probably needs to back him to become PM and shift to a soft Brexit deal with the EU
The Leave majority *now* compared to the Leave majority after a year of “no deal” is impossible to compare.
Nothing is possible to compare without a Tardis. If we go to no deal now then that doesn't last forever - if after a couple of years people are happy with the arrangements then the next election will be fought on non-Brexit issues and life will move on. If people are unhappy a party can put a manifesto pledge to change arrangements.
Timetable for larger audiences and returns to stadiums of audiences to be revised but Boris makes clear no new lockdown, aim to avoid a second lockdown and schools and businesses to stay open Covid secure
No, there will be no hard border with Eire and no border in the Irish Sea under this government. Boris will block indyref2 and if Scotland goes under no deal to rejoin EU that means tariffs on Scottish exports to England and vice versa
How do you arrive at no border with Northern Ireland or Ireland, but a border with Scotland?
As if Scotland leaves the UK to rejoin the EU/EEA it will have to face the same tariffs the rest of the EU/EEA (including the Republic of Ireland) will face on export of their goods and services to England and Wales after a no trade deal Brexit.
Northern Ireland remains part of the UK so the UK government will minimise any border from GB to NI and from NI to Eire under the GFA
By default, yes. It's possible that losing at least two of your constituent nations AND becoming a rogue state as it did yesterday MIGHT shock England into deciding things can be handled better. So it joins EEA equivalent...
I've long believed that if you exhaust all the available options and requirements — respect the referendum, maintain the Union, no internal borders, frictionless trade with the EU — we would in a rational world come around to joining the EEA through EFTA or via a bespoke agreement. Perhaps Keir will do that when he becomes PM?
Me too... I always assumed the UK would end up in a form of the Vassal State for the reasons you give. It would contradict the reasons for Brexiting in the first place - taking back control, which is why it hasn't happened yet. I didn't expect Johnson's curve ball on the choosing a Withdrawal Agreement with an Irish Sea border. Given where we are now, I am much more pessimistic of it all going horribly wrong.
Key thing though is all this nonsense was set up by that fateful referendum decision in June 2016.
Surely there’s a mention to the blatant reneging on a referendum on the European Constitution ( conveniently renamed the Lisbon Treaty of course).
Had that been honoured, after all three main UK parties backed it at the 2005 election, there would’ve been the chance for the voters to actually a say on the direction of European travel. And had the voters said “no thanks” ( and I think they would have ) it would’ve actually been a signal to change direction.
Alas no. They ran from the voters, and doubled down, and let the pressure build.
Dem 368171 (+9548) GOP 116852 (+4619) IND 223278 (+7478)
There were 45637 ballots total requested at the same point in 2016.
Trump has really shot himself in his foot with his attitude to postal ballots, hasn't he?
Unless, I suppose, GOP people really do vote in person while his lawyers can ensure a couple of percent of the (much more Democrat) postal vote is excluded on various technicalities.
I'd assume he can't target individual Democrat votes for exclusion (i.e. it's blind to who was actually voted for), but his lawyers can generally target postal votes if he is confident that means excluding far more Democrats than Republicans in practice.
It's the same with making it hard for particular communities to register or suppressing black turnout via social media fake news - yes, he'll lose a few votes himself that way, but that's fine as long as the group he is targeting is mainly (albeit not exclusively) Democrat.
The Dems have the Governorship of North Carolina now though.
That's a nowcast, I think if the idiot rioters keep going then WI flips.
Although this isn't a crazy map as a possible outcome if the race narrows (and you could make an argument it will probably narrow as we approach the line as Trump is a pretty formidable campaigner), it seems harsh on Biden if you mean right now. I'd see this more as a forecast than a nowcast.
The most recent four polls in North Carolina show a narrow Biden lead, averages tend to show a narrow lead for him in Florida, and no pollsters have anything but a Biden lead in Arizona just now (some fairly big, some smaller). It's going against the evidence to say Biden right now doesn't have a narrow lead in at least one or two of those.
I'm allocating a majority of DKs to Trump as shy voters.
Historically, the evidence has tended to be that late undecideds break disproportionately for challengers rather than incumbents.
There's some debate over that - some say it's a null effect and it's basically 50/50 - but there doesn't seem to be a lot of evidence of the opposite effect.
Dem 368171 (+9548) GOP 116852 (+4619) IND 223278 (+7478)
There were 45637 ballots total requested at the same point in 2016.
@Pulpstar Do you know you can get the returns as well? So you can see on what date everyone who has requestesd a ballot has returned it.
So 791 Registered Democrats have returned a valid ballot Only 179 Registered GOP have returned a ballot 367 Independent, Libertarian or Greens have returned a ballot
The North Carolina data is bonkers open. I'm getting this data from a spread sheet with names and addresses. This is all cross referencable with previous elections so you can track relative performance.
Dem 368171 (+9548) GOP 116852 (+4619) IND 223278 (+7478)
There were 45637 ballots total requested at the same point in 2016.
@Pulpstar Do you know you can get the returns as well? So you can see on what date everyone who has requestesd a ballot has returned it.
So 791 Registered Democrats have returned a valid ballot Only 179 Registered GOP have returned a ballot 367 Independent, Libertarian or Greens have returned a ballot
The North Carolina data is bonkers open. I'm getting this data from a spread sheet with names and addresses. This is all cross referencable with previous elections so you can track relative performance.
Can you compare how these voters have switched since 2016?
The ideal test would be one you can do at home and takes a few minutes without having to send it to a lab. I wonder if that is even feasible?
Like a pregnancy test? Not sure I see why not, in principle.
Yeah. If there was you could imagine the government providing everyone with enough for a test every few days/week. That'd really help keep outbreaks small.
No, there will be no hard border with Eire and no border in the Irish Sea under this government. Boris will block indyref2 and if Scotland goes under no deal to rejoin EU that means tariffs on Scottish exports to England and vice versa
How do you arrive at no border with Northern Ireland or Ireland, but a border with Scotland?
As if Scotland leaves the UK to rejoin the EU/EEA it will have to face the same tariffs the rest of the EU/EEA (including the Republic of Ireland) will face on export of their goods and services to England and Wales after a no trade deal Brexit.
Northern Ireland remains part of the UK so the UK government will minimise any border from GB to NI and from NI to Eire under the GFA
By default, yes. It's possible that losing at least two of your constituent nations AND becoming a rogue state as it did yesterday MIGHT shock England into deciding things can be handled better. So it joins EEA equivalent...
I've long believed that if you exhaust all the available options and requirements — respect the referendum, maintain the Union, no internal borders, frictionless trade with the EU — we would in a rational world come around to joining the EEA through EFTA or via a bespoke agreement. Perhaps Keir will do that when he becomes PM?
Me too... I always assumed the UK would end up in a form of the Vassal State for the reasons you give. It would contradict the reasons for Brexiting in the first place - taking back control, which is why it hasn't happened yet. I didn't expect Johnson's curve ball on the choosing a Withdrawal Agreement with an Irish Sea border. Given where we are now, I am much more pessimistic of it all going horribly wrong.
Key thing though is all this nonsense was set up by that fateful referendum decision in June 2016.
EEA is what all the logic points to, even now. And it's in the UK's interest to go there directly, rather than via 3-5-10 years of circling round the plughole of trying to do something else. And if EEA+/- is the endpoint, then it simply isn't compatible with Dom's Master Plan, so we might as well not bother with that.
I get the visceral need some have for a clean break, the freedom and culture always trump economics idea. (Though that's much easier to say early in the 21st century, when life, even at the bottom of the UK heap, is better than it is for many around the world.) But without wishing it, I forsee a huge humiliation a'coming. Accepting that we have to do this damn silly thing, do we really have to do it in this damn silly way?
Dem 368171 (+9548) GOP 116852 (+4619) IND 223278 (+7478)
There were 45637 ballots total requested at the same point in 2016.
@Pulpstar Do you know you can get the returns as well? So you can see on what date everyone who has requestesd a ballot has returned it.
So 791 Registered Democrats have returned a valid ballot Only 179 Registered GOP have returned a ballot 367 Independent, Libertarian or Greens have returned a ballot
The North Carolina data is bonkers open. I'm getting this data from a spread sheet with names and addresses. This is all cross referencable with previous elections so you can track relative performance.
That's worse than 18th C stuff, before the secret ballot. We had a discussion the other day about how the US needed taking aside and showing how a real democracy worked.
Dem 368171 (+9548) GOP 116852 (+4619) IND 223278 (+7478)
There were 45637 ballots total requested at the same point in 2016.
@Pulpstar Do you know you can get the returns as well? So you can see on what date everyone who has requestesd a ballot has returned it.
So 791 Registered Democrats have returned a valid ballot Only 179 Registered GOP have returned a ballot 367 Independent, Libertarian or Greens have returned a ballot
The North Carolina data is bonkers open. I'm getting this data from a spread sheet with names and addresses. This is all cross referencable with previous elections so you can track relative performance.
I've got the same data but from an aggregated dataset. 5 columns, First is Civi/Mili/One-stop/Overseas. 2nd is party affiliation, 3rd is gender (2 white republicans of undesignated gender have returned ballots), 4th is race, 5th is tally.
I'm all for electoral reform but what on earth is the point in having AV for the American Presidency??? Congress, I can understand, but in a two-party system when electing to a single office..?
It makes perfect sense, as it is not a de jure two-party system, only de facto. Nice to be able to vote green or libertarian (or even one of the crazy not-so-closet fascists) and still have a say.
Better than the shit sandwich we get on this side of the water, at least.
Dem 368171 (+9548) GOP 116852 (+4619) IND 223278 (+7478)
There were 45637 ballots total requested at the same point in 2016.
@Pulpstar Do you know you can get the returns as well? So you can see on what date everyone who has requestesd a ballot has returned it.
So 791 Registered Democrats have returned a valid ballot Only 179 Registered GOP have returned a ballot 367 Independent, Libertarian or Greens have returned a ballot
The North Carolina data is bonkers open. I'm getting this data from a spread sheet with names and addresses. This is all cross referencable with previous elections so you can track relative performance.
That's worse than 18th C stuff, before the secret ballot. We had a discussion the other day about how the US needed taking aside and showing how a real democracy worked.
So the government can impose a whole new strata of policing, drawn from people who may have no training, without let or sanction?
No, there will be no hard border with Eire and no border in the Irish Sea under this government. Boris will block indyref2 and if Scotland goes under no deal to rejoin EU that means tariffs on Scottish exports to England and vice versa
Dem 368171 (+9548) GOP 116852 (+4619) IND 223278 (+7478)
There were 45637 ballots total requested at the same point in 2016.
@Pulpstar Do you know you can get the returns as well? So you can see on what date everyone who has requestesd a ballot has returned it.
So 791 Registered Democrats have returned a valid ballot Only 179 Registered GOP have returned a ballot 367 Independent, Libertarian or Greens have returned a ballot
The North Carolina data is bonkers open. I'm getting this data from a spread sheet with names and addresses. This is all cross referencable with previous elections so you can track relative performance.
That's worse than 18th C stuff, before the secret ballot. We had a discussion the other day about how the US needed taking aside and showing how a real democracy worked.
So the government can impose a whole new strata of policing, drawn from people who may have no training, without let or sanction?
Dem 368171 (+9548) GOP 116852 (+4619) IND 223278 (+7478)
There were 45637 ballots total requested at the same point in 2016.
@Pulpstar Do you know you can get the returns as well? So you can see on what date everyone who has requestesd a ballot has returned it.
So 791 Registered Democrats have returned a valid ballot Only 179 Registered GOP have returned a ballot 367 Independent, Libertarian or Greens have returned a ballot
The North Carolina data is bonkers open. I'm getting this data from a spread sheet with names and addresses. This is all cross referencable with previous elections so you can track relative performance.
Can you compare how these voters have switched since 2016?
We could then calculate the swing since 2016?
Obviously we can't see how they voted but we can check to see who has switched registration. We can also compare the response rate of people who requested a postal vote in 2016 vs the exact same people who have requested a postal vote in 2020.
Dem 368171 (+9548) GOP 116852 (+4619) IND 223278 (+7478)
There were 45637 ballots total requested at the same point in 2016.
@Pulpstar Do you know you can get the returns as well? So you can see on what date everyone who has requestesd a ballot has returned it.
So 791 Registered Democrats have returned a valid ballot Only 179 Registered GOP have returned a ballot 367 Independent, Libertarian or Greens have returned a ballot
The North Carolina data is bonkers open. I'm getting this data from a spread sheet with names and addresses. This is all cross referencable with previous elections so you can track relative performance.
Can you compare how these voters have switched since 2016?
We could then calculate the swing since 2016?
Obviously we can't see how they voted but we can check to see who has switched registration. We can also compare the response rate of people who requested a postal vote in 2016 vs the exact same people who have requested a postal vote in 2020.
The ideal test would be one you can do at home and takes a few minutes without having to send it to a lab. I wonder if that is even feasible?
Like a pregnancy test? Not sure I see why not, in principle.
Pregnancy tests are much simpler than Covid tests as it's just a test for a hormone in the unprocessed urine. Conveniently, there's a particular hormone which is only present when a woman is pregnant, so it's fairly simple to get a chemical which reacts with that hormone but not with other stuff commonly present in pee.
However, it's not that simple with Covid - there's quite a lot of processing involved to extract and chemically process the RNA before you even get to test.
Comments
That's a nowcast, I think if the idiot rioters keep going then WI flips.
They would have extended.
BoZo said no
Self-inflicted
There seem to be quite a lot of people who don't understand that what is constitutionally possible is not necessarily justifiable.
That’s such a weirdly worded question.
I expect you will never find peace on brexit
Whenever I log on including day or anytime of the night and early morning 24/7 your anti brexit posts absolutely dominate
Time to get a life
Northern Ireland remains part of the UK so the UK government will minimise any border from GB to NI and from NI to Eire under the GFA
Dem 368171 (+9548)
GOP 116852 (+4619)
IND 223278 (+7478)
There were 45637 ballots total requested at the same point in 2016.
Sadly.
Mind it'll bring back the days of the Border Reivers, smuggling across the Cheviots.
The most recent four polls in North Carolina show a narrow Biden lead, averages tend to show a narrow lead for him in Florida, and no pollsters have anything but a Biden lead in Arizona just now (some fairly big, some smaller). It's going against the evidence to say Biden right now doesn't have a narrow lead in at least one or two of those.
Dem 791, GOP 129, Others 367.
Some good news for Trump though, NC GOP registered military have outreturned their ballots so far 24 to 16 for the Democrats.
Key thing though is all this nonsense was set up by that fateful referendum decision in June 2016.
England voted 53.4% Leave, Wales 52.5% Leave
The Leave majority *now* compared to the Leave majority after a year of “no deal” is impossible to compare.
We don’t know what the future holds.
I'd assume he can't target individual Democrat votes for exclusion (i.e. it's blind to who was actually voted for), but his lawyers can generally target postal votes if he is confident that means excluding far more Democrats than Republicans in practice.
It's the same with making it hard for particular communities to register or suppressing black turnout via social media fake news - yes, he'll lose a few votes himself that way, but that's fine as long as the group he is targeting is mainly (albeit not exclusively) Democrat.
It will be interesting how the other parts of the union react
Had that been honoured, after all three main UK parties backed it at the 2005 election, there would’ve been the chance for the voters to actually a say on the direction of European travel. And had the voters said “no thanks” ( and I think they would have ) it would’ve actually been a signal to change direction.
Alas no. They ran from the voters, and doubled down, and let the pressure build.
There's some debate over that - some say it's a null effect and it's basically 50/50 - but there doesn't seem to be a lot of evidence of the opposite effect.
So 791 Registered Democrats have returned a valid ballot
Only 179 Registered GOP have returned a ballot
367 Independent, Libertarian or Greens have returned a ballot
The North Carolina data is bonkers open. I'm getting this data from a spread sheet with names and addresses. This is all cross referencable with previous elections so you can track relative performance.
We could then calculate the swing since 2016?
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-latest-on-republican-efforts-to-make-it-harder-to-vote/
I get the visceral need some have for a clean break, the freedom and culture always trump economics idea. (Though that's much easier to say early in the 21st century, when life, even at the bottom of the UK heap, is better than it is for many around the world.) But without wishing it, I forsee a huge humiliation a'coming. Accepting that we have to do this damn silly thing, do we really have to do it in this damn silly way?
Those freedoms you gave up?
You aren't getting them back.
Better than the shit sandwich we get on this side of the water, at least.
Is this North Korea?
https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1303717240945160192
https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1303717658727272448
Hands - Face - Facepalm
Only in Edinburgh.
Get a circus
The Freedoms we had are not coming back. Indeed, more are being taken away.
Did somebody just reach up his trouser leg?
Yet again the communications "experts" can't communicate a simple message
However, it's not that simple with Covid - there's quite a lot of processing involved to extract and chemically process the RNA before you even get to test.