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  • FF43 said:

    Hard, as an arch-Unionist, to argue with Nicola here:

    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1303588386935123968

    Edit: she's clearly pitching to people like me.

    Then more fool you.

    I'm a fierce critic of what Boris has done over the last 36 hours but Nicola would sieze on anything he did do or didn't do as strengthening the case for independence.

    If powers move from the EU to the UK she will say it's an insult they haven't been devolved straight to Scotland. If they stay with the EU then she'll say it strengthens the case for Scotland to have independent representation in the EU.

    The common theme is she doesn't like the UK.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Scott_xP said:

    RobD said:

    Has the same effect as a repeal, or an amendment with an exception, doesn't it? Plenty to be fussed about over the international aspect, but overriding domestic legislation occurs all the time.

    Still no

    Repeal would require votes in Parliament.

    This says ministers can break existing law whenever they like
    This also requires votes in Parliament, as it is still a bill.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Phil said:

    Stocky said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.

    It won't happen, not a chance. If the bill does not pass Johnson will have to resign. If you are going to announce to the world that your government no longer believes in international law and then you cannot deliver on that, you are finished. Tory MPs will understand that and put their party first. It's like the GOP with Trump. The Rubicon will be crossed.

    In all this fury, might I tentativelly point out that the EU are not squeaky clean. I think the UK thought it had a last resort in the form of a Canada deal, then this ...

    https://www.euronews.com/2020/02/19/uk-blasts-eu-s-barnier-for-rejecting-post-brexit-canada-style-trade-deal

    Is this the point that relationships soured beyond repair?
    As far as I can tell, the only "promise" of a Canada-style deal that the EU ever made was a Canadian flag icon on a powerpoint presentation. It seems the UK government has put an awful lot of weight on a powerpoint slide that someone put together to demonstrate a hierarchy of plausible possible deals & the red lines that would have to be crossed in order to get them.

    The idea that a single powerpoint slide ever counted as some kind of guarantee that the UK could pick and choose from the list of deals on that slide according to its choice of redlines seems something of a stretch.
    and @Philip_Thompson continues to whine like a child and throw his toys out of the pram every day that the EU won’t give us the same deal as Canada. It’s really quite amusing.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    Stocky said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.
    Thank goodness Boris got rid of the 20 like Grieve last year.
    There's a lot of "rule of law" Tory MPs though. Rule of law has formed the backbone of the party ever since its foundation, Boris is ripping that up for absolutely no gain.
    There absolutely is a gain.

    Today the Government has shown in no uncertain and absolutely unambiguous terms that the UK is a sovereign country and the EU's sovereign equal.

    Now if the EU wants to start negotiating with us as sovereign equals then they can get a deal and this all goes away.

    If the UK continues to want to treat the UK as some of subservient state in its sphere of influence then the UK has shown today it can look after itself.

    This is the nuclear deterrent and the ball is back in the EU's court now. Their choice where we go next.

    So, once you and other Brexiteers have had their wank over this, what happens then? How does this sovereignty actually improve the lives of people across the country?

    It`s improved many people`s lives already (not me). You are underestimating how happy people are that we are no longer in the EU. I was in Parliament Square 31 Jan - there were literally tears of joy. I`m with you on Brexit, but have recognised long ago thay psychological utility is every bit a valuable as monetary utility.
    Bizarre.

    When you resigned from your tennis club because they wouldn't let you play tennis on a GSX-R750 were you as exultant?
    I find it bizarre too. But there you go. Many have gained a lot from leaving the EU, even though the gain isn`t a tangible one. Remainers make the mistake again and again of ignoring the emotions of the masses of people who hated ... HATED ...
    the EU. I think "British exceptionalism" pretty much sums it up.
    I don't ignore it.

    But it is like believing in Thanos, God of The Far Lands.

    I just don't understand it and find it illogical.

    But of course each to their own. If I was a psychologist I might have a stab at trying to interpret it but I'm not so I'm left to my primal reactions.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,681
    edited September 2020
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:
    It's the right decision, even if the St Leger had led to no extra cases it would have severely weakened the new 6 person message.
    I think this was a local decision. The council had already made it clear in their latest missive that they weren't happy with it (but had been effectively overruled until now, as this was a government 'experiment').

    They labelled the event a 'critical incident' which no doubt gave them extra powers.

    https://www.doncaster.gov.uk/News/statement-from-dr-rupert-suckling-on-the-st-leger-festival-starting-today-at-doncaster-racecourse?fbclid=IwAR2mXMJqT6hrVzEC9Li8GbBIn7PDd8M5AXMu9k8ntK0rLyzSpukfk4dTfdY

    I'm not totally convinced it would have made a massive difference to Covid, but there we go.

    I bet there will be people course-side anyway...


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Barnesian said:

    If I were the EU I would state that if this legislation passes, there will be no more meetings. Agreements are pointless if the Uk is going to renege on them. Don't call us. We're busy preparing for No Deal. End of any co-operation. Period.

    Then Tories voting for the legislation wil be voting explicity for a painful No Deal and will have to live with the consequences.

    I very much hope they don't, but it's certainly possible.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    HYUFD said:
    Map only giving Biden those states where Goodwin gives him +4 or better...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.
    In reality it needs over 45 given that SF do not take their seats.
    Won't it need about 54? As the DUP will surely vote with the Government on this?
    Possibly so - though it is far from clear that the 8 DUP MPs will be in any hurry to bail out Johnson given his treatment of them a year ago. 'Revenge is a dish best served cold'. How keen would they be to be seen to prop up a PM increasingly seen as discredited - and an embarrassment - even by many of his own MPs?

    They don't hate Johnson like they hate Dublin. They will be dancing through the lobbies in support of this.

    Hitching Johnson's horses to the Unionist cart and shooting the Nationalist horses is unbelievably stupid in terms of how Northern Ireland works.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002
    HYUFD said:

    No but he can and will completely ignore the result

    No he can't

    Politically he can't

    And legally he could, until he declared breaking the law doesn't matter
  • Phil said:

    Stocky said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.

    It won't happen, not a chance. If the bill does not pass Johnson will have to resign. If you are going to announce to the world that your government no longer believes in international law and then you cannot deliver on that, you are finished. Tory MPs will understand that and put their party first. It's like the GOP with Trump. The Rubicon will be crossed.

    In all this fury, might I tentativelly point out that the EU are not squeaky clean. I think the UK thought it had a last resort in the form of a Canada deal, then this ...

    https://www.euronews.com/2020/02/19/uk-blasts-eu-s-barnier-for-rejecting-post-brexit-canada-style-trade-deal

    Is this the point that relationships soured beyond repair?
    As far as I can tell, the only "promise" of a Canada-style deal that the EU ever made was a Canadian flag icon on a powerpoint presentation. It seems the UK government has put an awful lot of weight on a powerpoint slide that someone put together to demonstrate a hierarchy of plausible possible deals & the red lines that would have to be crossed in order to get them.

    The idea that a single powerpoint slide ever counted as some kind of guarantee that the UK could pick and choose from the list of deals on that slide according to its choice of redlines seems something of a stretch.
    and @Philip_Thompson continues to whine like a child and throw his toys out of the pram every day that the EU won’t give us the same deal as Canada. It’s really quite amusing.
    LOL I'm not whining, I'm smiling. I literally just said how "delighted" I am and you think that's a whine? Do I need to accompany every post with a smiley face to show you my emotions? 😁

    I am in a very good mood right now about how things are proceeding. This is what I have said for YEARS the Government to do on this site. Fantastic! Well done. :grin:

    The whining seems to be people unhappy about "the rule of law" when if Parliament votes for this Act to go through, then this Act will be the law. No ifs, no buts.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,019
    Jonathan said:

    It is upsetting to see your country be turned into a unreliable, second-class state. A sort of rainy Russia.

    I remember when we were worried about our AAA rating.

    Long time coming though. Our structural issues go back decades, and our worthless constitutional settlement is feckin ancient. Which is the problem.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Phil said:

    Stocky said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.

    It won't happen, not a chance. If the bill does not pass Johnson will have to resign. If you are going to announce to the world that your government no longer believes in international law and then you cannot deliver on that, you are finished. Tory MPs will understand that and put their party first. It's like the GOP with Trump. The Rubicon will be crossed.

    In all this fury, might I tentativelly point out that the EU are not squeaky clean. I think the UK thought it had a last resort in the form of a Canada deal, then this ...

    https://www.euronews.com/2020/02/19/uk-blasts-eu-s-barnier-for-rejecting-post-brexit-canada-style-trade-deal

    Is this the point that relationships soured beyond repair?
    As far as I can tell, the only "promise" of a Canada-style deal that the EU ever made was a Canadian flag icon on a powerpoint presentation. It seems the UK government has put an awful lot of weight on a powerpoint slide that someone put together to demonstrate a hierarchy of plausible possible deals & the red lines that would have to be crossed in order to get them.

    The idea that a single powerpoint slide ever counted as some kind of guarantee that the UK could pick and choose from the list of deals on that slide according to its choice of redlines seems something of a stretch.
    and @Philip_Thompson continues to whine like a child and throw his toys out of the pram every day that the EU won’t give us the same deal as Canada. It’s really quite amusing.
    LOL I'm not whining, I'm smiling. I literally just said how "delighted" I am and you think that's a whine? Do I need to accompany every post with a smiley face to show you my emotions? 😁

    I am in a very good mood right now about how things are proceeding. This is what I have said for YEARS the Government to do on this site. Fantastic! Well done. :grin:

    The whining seems to be people unhappy about "the rule of law" when if Parliament votes for this Act to go through, then this Act will be the law. No ifs, no buts.
    Hail Thanos!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    Phil said:

    Stocky said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.

    It won't happen, not a chance. If the bill does not pass Johnson will have to resign. If you are going to announce to the world that your government no longer believes in international law and then you cannot deliver on that, you are finished. Tory MPs will understand that and put their party first. It's like the GOP with Trump. The Rubicon will be crossed.

    In all this fury, might I tentativelly point out that the EU are not squeaky clean. I think the UK thought it had a last resort in the form of a Canada deal, then this ...

    https://www.euronews.com/2020/02/19/uk-blasts-eu-s-barnier-for-rejecting-post-brexit-canada-style-trade-deal

    Is this the point that relationships soured beyond repair?
    As far as I can tell, the only "promise" of a Canada-style deal that the EU ever made was a Canadian flag icon on a powerpoint presentation. It seems the UK government has put an awful lot of weight on a powerpoint slide that someone put together to demonstrate a hierarchy of plausible possible deals & the red lines that would have to be crossed in order to get them.

    The idea that a single powerpoint slide ever counted as some kind of guarantee that the UK could pick and choose from the list of deals on that slide according to its choice of redlines seems something of a stretch.
    and @Philip_Thompson continues to whine like a child and throw his toys out of the pram every day that the EU won’t give us the same deal as Canada. It’s really quite amusing.
    LOL I'm not whining, I'm smiling. I literally just said how "delighted" I am and you think that's a whine? Do I need to accompany every post with a smiley face to show you my emotions? 😁

    I am in a very good mood right now about how things are proceeding. This is what I have said for YEARS the Government to do on this site. Fantastic! Well done. :grin:

    The whining seems to be people unhappy about "the rule of law" when if Parliament votes for this Act to go through, then this Act will be the law. No ifs, no buts.
    I’ve already explained that “the rule of law” is not what you think it is - and yet you completely ignored it.

    But regardless, you have been whining every day about the EU not giving us exactly what you want. I expect you to continue to do so.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    FF43 said:

    Hard, as an arch-Unionist, to argue with Nicola here:

    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1303588386935123968

    Edit: she's clearly pitching to people like me.

    Then more fool you.

    I'm a fierce critic of what Boris has done over the last 36 hours but Nicola would sieze on anything he did do or didn't do as strengthening the case for independence.

    If powers move from the EU to the UK she will say it's an insult they haven't been devolved straight to Scotland. If they stay with the EU then she'll say it strengthens the case for Scotland to have independent representation in the EU.

    The common theme is she doesn't like the UK.
    Maybe I am a fool. Johnsonian nationalism has a very limited market in Scotland. Scotland wants out and England doesn't care. I am maybe one of the few people that regrets the passing of Union.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Those essential political isshoes...

    https://thehill.com/homenews/the-memo/515584-the-memo-harris-moves-to-center-stage
    ...Harris’s comparative youth is already producing some viral moments. The Washington Post reported on Tuesday afternoon that brief video snippets of her arrival in Wisconsin the previous day, posted on Twitter by two reporters, had been viewed almost 8 million times by the following morning.

    “What sent video pinging around the internet was what was on her feet: her black, low-rise Chuck Taylor All-Stars, the classic shoe that has long been associated more closely with cultural cool than carefully managed high-profile candidacies,” the Post reported...
  • Phil said:

    Stocky said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.

    It won't happen, not a chance. If the bill does not pass Johnson will have to resign. If you are going to announce to the world that your government no longer believes in international law and then you cannot deliver on that, you are finished. Tory MPs will understand that and put their party first. It's like the GOP with Trump. The Rubicon will be crossed.

    In all this fury, might I tentativelly point out that the EU are not squeaky clean. I think the UK thought it had a last resort in the form of a Canada deal, then this ...

    https://www.euronews.com/2020/02/19/uk-blasts-eu-s-barnier-for-rejecting-post-brexit-canada-style-trade-deal

    Is this the point that relationships soured beyond repair?
    As far as I can tell, the only "promise" of a Canada-style deal that the EU ever made was a Canadian flag icon on a powerpoint presentation. It seems the UK government has put an awful lot of weight on a powerpoint slide that someone put together to demonstrate a hierarchy of plausible possible deals & the red lines that would have to be crossed in order to get them.

    The idea that a single powerpoint slide ever counted as some kind of guarantee that the UK could pick and choose from the list of deals on that slide according to its choice of redlines seems something of a stretch.
    and @Philip_Thompson continues to whine like a child and throw his toys out of the pram every day that the EU won’t give us the same deal as Canada. It’s really quite amusing.
    LOL I'm not whining, I'm smiling. I literally just said how "delighted" I am and you think that's a whine? Do I need to accompany every post with a smiley face to show you my emotions? 😁

    I am in a very good mood right now about how things are proceeding. This is what I have said for YEARS the Government to do on this site. Fantastic! Well done. :grin:

    The whining seems to be people unhappy about "the rule of law" when if Parliament votes for this Act to go through, then this Act will be the law. No ifs, no buts.
    I’ve already explained that “the rule of law” is not what you think it is - and yet you completely ignored it.

    But regardless, you have been whining every day about the EU not giving us exactly what you want. I expect you to continue to do so.
    "The rule of law" is that Parliament sets the law and we vote for MPs to set it how we want it setting.

    We don't vote for foreign governments. That is why international law is subordinate to domestic law.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    Stocky said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.
    Thank goodness Boris got rid of the 20 like Grieve last year.
    There's a lot of "rule of law" Tory MPs though. Rule of law has formed the backbone of the party ever since its foundation, Boris is ripping that up for absolutely no gain.
    There absolutely is a gain.

    Today the Government has shown in no uncertain and absolutely unambiguous terms that the UK is a sovereign country and the EU's sovereign equal.

    Now if the EU wants to start negotiating with us as sovereign equals then they can get a deal and this all goes away.

    If the UK continues to want to treat the UK as some of subservient state in its sphere of influence then the UK has shown today it can look after itself.

    This is the nuclear deterrent and the ball is back in the EU's court now. Their choice where we go next.

    So, once you and other Brexiteers have had their wank over this, what happens then? How does this sovereignty actually improve the lives of people across the country?

    It`s improved many people`s lives already (not me). You are underestimating how happy people are that we are no longer in the EU. I was in Parliament Square 31 Jan - there were literally tears of joy. I`m with you on Brexit, but have recognised long ago thay psychological utility is every bit a valuable as monetary utility.

    That is the wank. As we all know, those do not go on forever. Withdrawing support for internaitonal law will have myriad consequences. First off, we are now almost certain to have no trade deal with the EU. We will also now find it much harder to get deals with other countries, Materially, therefore, the country will be less well and the economy will perform worse than would otherwise have been the case. That will impact jobs, public spending and much more besides. What's more ay an individual level, UK citizens and businesses will not be as free as they are today. All of this will have to be worked through.
    You are imo misreading the politics. I will be astonished if Johnson takes us out of the SM onto basic WTO terms and risks a border in Ireland. There will be a trade deal agreed this year or a quasi extension labelled as a deal. I'm 90% certain of this.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.
    In reality it needs over 45 given that SF do not take their seats.
    Won't it need about 54? As the DUP will surely vote with the Government on this?
    Possibly so - though it is far from clear that the 8 DUP MPs will be in any hurry to bail out Johnson given his treatment of them a year ago. 'Revenge is a dish best served cold'. How keen would they be to be seen to prop up a PM increasingly seen as discredited - and an embarrassment - even by many of his own MPs?

    They don't hate Johnson like they hate Dublin. They will be dancing through the lobbies in support of this.

    Hitching Johnson's horses to the Unionist cart and shooting the Nationalist horses is unbelievably stupid in terms of how Northern Ireland works.
    FTFY as they say.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    @Stocky these people crying in Parliament Square still expect their lives to get tangibly better as a result of this whole process. Whether it will or not remains to be seen.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002
    We fucked up cos BoZo wanted to be World King...

    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1303684278891446283
  • justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.
    In reality it needs over 45 given that SF do not take their seats.
    Won't it need about 54? As the DUP will surely vote with the Government on this?
    Possibly so - though it is far from clear that the 8 DUP MPs will be in any hurry to bail out Johnson given his treatment of them a year ago. 'Revenge is a dish best served cold'. How keen would they be to be seen to prop up a PM increasingly seen as discredited - and an embarrassment - even by many of his own MPs?

    They don't hate Johnson like they hate Dublin. They will be dancing through the lobbies in support of this.

    Hitching Johnson's horses to the Unionist cart and shooting the Nationalist horses is unbelievably stupid in terms of how Northern Ireland works.

    Of course it is. But the government is run by English nationalists who care nothing for Northern Ireland except to the extent its retention is important to the maintenance of English prestige. See, also, Scotland.

  • Stocky said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.
    Thank goodness Boris got rid of the 20 like Grieve last year.
    There's a lot of "rule of law" Tory MPs though. Rule of law has formed the backbone of the party ever since its foundation, Boris is ripping that up for absolutely no gain.
    There absolutely is a gain.

    Today the Government has shown in no uncertain and absolutely unambiguous terms that the UK is a sovereign country and the EU's sovereign equal.

    Now if the EU wants to start negotiating with us as sovereign equals then they can get a deal and this all goes away.

    If the UK continues to want to treat the UK as some of subservient state in its sphere of influence then the UK has shown today it can look after itself.

    This is the nuclear deterrent and the ball is back in the EU's court now. Their choice where we go next.

    So, once you and other Brexiteers have had their wank over this, what happens then? How does this sovereignty actually improve the lives of people across the country?

    It`s improved many people`s lives already (not me). You are underestimating how happy people are that we are no longer in the EU. I was in Parliament Square 31 Jan - there were literally tears of joy. I`m with you on Brexit, but have recognised long ago thay psychological utility is every bit a valuable as monetary utility.
    Saw a clip of this the other day. One of the banners said 'Hang the Traitors' so I'm not entirely sure happiness was the only emotion abroad in Parliament Square that night.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    edited September 2020
    Scott_xP said:

    HYUFD said:

    No but he can and will completely ignore the result

    No he can't

    Politically he can't

    And legally he could, until he declared breaking the law doesn't matter
    He can and he will, nothing he is doing ends the principle that Westminster is sovereign, including over blocking a legal indyref2 which it will continue to do while he is PM much as Rajoy completely ignored Catalonia's illegal indyref
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    Phil said:

    Stocky said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.

    It won't happen, not a chance. If the bill does not pass Johnson will have to resign. If you are going to announce to the world that your government no longer believes in international law and then you cannot deliver on that, you are finished. Tory MPs will understand that and put their party first. It's like the GOP with Trump. The Rubicon will be crossed.

    In all this fury, might I tentativelly point out that the EU are not squeaky clean. I think the UK thought it had a last resort in the form of a Canada deal, then this ...

    https://www.euronews.com/2020/02/19/uk-blasts-eu-s-barnier-for-rejecting-post-brexit-canada-style-trade-deal

    Is this the point that relationships soured beyond repair?
    As far as I can tell, the only "promise" of a Canada-style deal that the EU ever made was a Canadian flag icon on a powerpoint presentation. It seems the UK government has put an awful lot of weight on a powerpoint slide that someone put together to demonstrate a hierarchy of plausible possible deals & the red lines that would have to be crossed in order to get them.

    The idea that a single powerpoint slide ever counted as some kind of guarantee that the UK could pick and choose from the list of deals on that slide according to its choice of redlines seems something of a stretch.
    and @Philip_Thompson continues to whine like a child and throw his toys out of the pram every day that the EU won’t give us the same deal as Canada. It’s really quite amusing.
    LOL I'm not whining, I'm smiling. I literally just said how "delighted" I am and you think that's a whine? Do I need to accompany every post with a smiley face to show you my emotions? 😁

    I am in a very good mood right now about how things are proceeding. This is what I have said for YEARS the Government to do on this site. Fantastic! Well done. :grin:

    The whining seems to be people unhappy about "the rule of law" when if Parliament votes for this Act to go through, then this Act will be the law. No ifs, no buts.
    I’ve already explained that “the rule of law” is not what you think it is - and yet you completely ignored it.

    But regardless, you have been whining every day about the EU not giving us exactly what you want. I expect you to continue to do so.
    "The rule of law" is that Parliament sets the law and we vote for MPs to set it how we want it setting.

    We don't vote for foreign governments. That is why international law is subordinate to domestic law.
    It’s interesting that you’re so arrogant that you think what you decide is the “rule of law” is more authoritative than experts such as Lord Bingham.
  • kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.
    Thank goodness Boris got rid of the 20 like Grieve last year.
    There's a lot of "rule of law" Tory MPs though. Rule of law has formed the backbone of the party ever since its foundation, Boris is ripping that up for absolutely no gain.
    There absolutely is a gain.

    Today the Government has shown in no uncertain and absolutely unambiguous terms that the UK is a sovereign country and the EU's sovereign equal.

    Now if the EU wants to start negotiating with us as sovereign equals then they can get a deal and this all goes away.

    If the UK continues to want to treat the UK as some of subservient state in its sphere of influence then the UK has shown today it can look after itself.

    This is the nuclear deterrent and the ball is back in the EU's court now. Their choice where we go next.

    So, once you and other Brexiteers have had their wank over this, what happens then? How does this sovereignty actually improve the lives of people across the country?

    It`s improved many people`s lives already (not me). You are underestimating how happy people are that we are no longer in the EU. I was in Parliament Square 31 Jan - there were literally tears of joy. I`m with you on Brexit, but have recognised long ago thay psychological utility is every bit a valuable as monetary utility.

    That is the wank. As we all know, those do not go on forever. Withdrawing support for internaitonal law will have myriad consequences. First off, we are now almost certain to have no trade deal with the EU. We will also now find it much harder to get deals with other countries, Materially, therefore, the country will be less well and the economy will perform worse than would otherwise have been the case. That will impact jobs, public spending and much more besides. What's more ay an individual level, UK citizens and businesses will not be as free as they are today. All of this will have to be worked through.
    You are imo misreading the politics. I will be astonished if Johnson takes us out of the SM onto basic WTO terms and risks a border in Ireland. There will be a trade deal agreed this year or a quasi extension labelled as a deal. I'm 90% certain of this.
    90%?

    You weren't saying 90% yesterday were you?
  • FF43 said:

    Hard, as an arch-Unionist, to argue with Nicola here:

    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1303588386935123968

    Edit: she's clearly pitching to people like me.

    Then more fool you.

    I'm a fierce critic of what Boris has done over the last 36 hours but Nicola would sieze on anything he did do or didn't do as strengthening the case for independence.

    If powers move from the EU to the UK she will say it's an insult they haven't been devolved straight to Scotland. If they stay with the EU then she'll say it strengthens the case for Scotland to have independent representation in the EU.

    The common theme is she doesn't like the UK.
    You trying to influence things in Scotland by farting again?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,434
    edited September 2020

    I do think that the Tories are underplaying the possibility that delivering a No Deal on the back of their decision to renege on an international treaty they told the electorate was a triumph and the precursor to a great FTA with the EU may not prove to be immensely popular.

    The rock and hard place Johnson sits between is this. How does he find the votes to put a deal with the EU into law?

    We can assume that, in most cases, the Opposition will find fault with the specifics of the deal and vote against. In the case that the Opposition decide that the deal is worthy of support it is likely that this will trigger a challenge to Johnson's leadership - on the basis that he must have surrendered to Brussels to win the support of Remainers.

    The ERG are likely to view any meaningful compromise with the EU as surrender, to which they would prefer No Deal.

    The only way to win ERG support for a deal is to present it, at the last minute, as a victory over the EU and the Remainers. They have to be convinced that Johnson was not at all afraid of No Deal, and did not compromise in order to avoid it.

    It's not the EU that Johnson has to convince with the No Deal rhetoric, to scare them into submission, it's the ERG who need to be convinced that the EU were cowed.

    I'm not sure that the trick will work a second time. The ERG may drive us off the No Deal cliff even if Johnson doesn't want to.

  • HYUFD said:
    We had a responsible government that removed the threat of tariffs as part of Theresa May's deal. Is he calling Boris Johnson irresponsible?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    HYUFD said:
    Map only giving Biden those states where Goodwin gives him +4 or better...
    So Nevada and Pennsylvania will decide the Presidency then as both have Biden 4% or more ahead but less than 5% ahead
  • Phil said:

    Stocky said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.

    It won't happen, not a chance. If the bill does not pass Johnson will have to resign. If you are going to announce to the world that your government no longer believes in international law and then you cannot deliver on that, you are finished. Tory MPs will understand that and put their party first. It's like the GOP with Trump. The Rubicon will be crossed.

    In all this fury, might I tentativelly point out that the EU are not squeaky clean. I think the UK thought it had a last resort in the form of a Canada deal, then this ...

    https://www.euronews.com/2020/02/19/uk-blasts-eu-s-barnier-for-rejecting-post-brexit-canada-style-trade-deal

    Is this the point that relationships soured beyond repair?
    As far as I can tell, the only "promise" of a Canada-style deal that the EU ever made was a Canadian flag icon on a powerpoint presentation. It seems the UK government has put an awful lot of weight on a powerpoint slide that someone put together to demonstrate a hierarchy of plausible possible deals & the red lines that would have to be crossed in order to get them.

    The idea that a single powerpoint slide ever counted as some kind of guarantee that the UK could pick and choose from the list of deals on that slide according to its choice of redlines seems something of a stretch.
    and @Philip_Thompson continues to whine like a child and throw his toys out of the pram every day that the EU won’t give us the same deal as Canada. It’s really quite amusing.
    LOL I'm not whining, I'm smiling. I literally just said how "delighted" I am and you think that's a whine? Do I need to accompany every post with a smiley face to show you my emotions? 😁

    I am in a very good mood right now about how things are proceeding. This is what I have said for YEARS the Government to do on this site. Fantastic! Well done. :grin:

    The whining seems to be people unhappy about "the rule of law" when if Parliament votes for this Act to go through, then this Act will be the law. No ifs, no buts.
    I’ve already explained that “the rule of law” is not what you think it is - and yet you completely ignored it.

    But regardless, you have been whining every day about the EU not giving us exactly what you want. I expect you to continue to do so.
    "The rule of law" is that Parliament sets the law and we vote for MPs to set it how we want it setting.

    We don't vote for foreign governments. That is why international law is subordinate to domestic law.
    It’s interesting that you’re so arrogant that you think what you decide is the “rule of law” is more authoritative than experts such as Lord Bingham.
    Even arch Remainers like Dominic Grieve and Jolyon Maugham QC are agreeing with me on this issue.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1303601637106298883
    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1303601638549184513
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002
    HYUFD said:

    He can and he will, nothing he is doing ends the principle that Westminster is sovereign, including over blocking a legal indyref2 which it will continue to do while he is PM much as Rajoy completely ignored Catalonia's illegal indyref

    The Union is fucked, and BoZo is the father (again)
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    Phil said:

    Stocky said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.

    It won't happen, not a chance. If the bill does not pass Johnson will have to resign. If you are going to announce to the world that your government no longer believes in international law and then you cannot deliver on that, you are finished. Tory MPs will understand that and put their party first. It's like the GOP with Trump. The Rubicon will be crossed.

    In all this fury, might I tentativelly point out that the EU are not squeaky clean. I think the UK thought it had a last resort in the form of a Canada deal, then this ...

    https://www.euronews.com/2020/02/19/uk-blasts-eu-s-barnier-for-rejecting-post-brexit-canada-style-trade-deal

    Is this the point that relationships soured beyond repair?
    As far as I can tell, the only "promise" of a Canada-style deal that the EU ever made was a Canadian flag icon on a powerpoint presentation. It seems the UK government has put an awful lot of weight on a powerpoint slide that someone put together to demonstrate a hierarchy of plausible possible deals & the red lines that would have to be crossed in order to get them.

    The idea that a single powerpoint slide ever counted as some kind of guarantee that the UK could pick and choose from the list of deals on that slide according to its choice of redlines seems something of a stretch.
    and @Philip_Thompson continues to whine like a child and throw his toys out of the pram every day that the EU won’t give us the same deal as Canada. It’s really quite amusing.
    LOL I'm not whining, I'm smiling. I literally just said how "delighted" I am and you think that's a whine? Do I need to accompany every post with a smiley face to show you my emotions? 😁

    I am in a very good mood right now about how things are proceeding. This is what I have said for YEARS the Government to do on this site. Fantastic! Well done. :grin:

    The whining seems to be people unhappy about "the rule of law" when if Parliament votes for this Act to go through, then this Act will be the law. No ifs, no buts.
    I’ve already explained that “the rule of law” is not what you think it is - and yet you completely ignored it.

    But regardless, you have been whining every day about the EU not giving us exactly what you want. I expect you to continue to do so.
    "The rule of law" is that Parliament sets the law and we vote for MPs to set it how we want it setting.

    We don't vote for foreign governments. That is why international law is subordinate to domestic law.
    It’s interesting that you’re so arrogant that you think what you decide is the “rule of law” is more authoritative than experts such as Lord Bingham.
    Even arch Remainers like Dominic Grieve and Jolyon Maugham QC are agreeing with me on this issue.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1303601637106298883
    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1303601638549184513
    You’re misunderstanding. I’m not disputing that it is legal and constitutional. I’m disputing that it is compatible with the concept that is “the rule of law”.

    Parliamentary Supremacy is not the same as “the rule of law”. Read some Bingham.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    Phil said:

    Stocky said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.

    It won't happen, not a chance. If the bill does not pass Johnson will have to resign. If you are going to announce to the world that your government no longer believes in international law and then you cannot deliver on that, you are finished. Tory MPs will understand that and put their party first. It's like the GOP with Trump. The Rubicon will be crossed.

    In all this fury, might I tentativelly point out that the EU are not squeaky clean. I think the UK thought it had a last resort in the form of a Canada deal, then this ...

    https://www.euronews.com/2020/02/19/uk-blasts-eu-s-barnier-for-rejecting-post-brexit-canada-style-trade-deal

    Is this the point that relationships soured beyond repair?
    As far as I can tell, the only "promise" of a Canada-style deal that the EU ever made was a Canadian flag icon on a powerpoint presentation. It seems the UK government has put an awful lot of weight on a powerpoint slide that someone put together to demonstrate a hierarchy of plausible possible deals & the red lines that would have to be crossed in order to get them.

    The idea that a single powerpoint slide ever counted as some kind of guarantee that the UK could pick and choose from the list of deals on that slide according to its choice of redlines seems something of a stretch.
    and @Philip_Thompson continues to whine like a child and throw his toys out of the pram every day that the EU won’t give us the same deal as Canada. It’s really quite amusing.
    LOL I'm not whining, I'm smiling. I literally just said how "delighted" I am and you think that's a whine? Do I need to accompany every post with a smiley face to show you my emotions? 😁

    I am in a very good mood right now about how things are proceeding. This is what I have said for YEARS the Government to do on this site. Fantastic! Well done. :grin:

    The whining seems to be people unhappy about "the rule of law" when if Parliament votes for this Act to go through, then this Act will be the law. No ifs, no buts.
    I’ve already explained that “the rule of law” is not what you think it is - and yet you completely ignored it.

    But regardless, you have been whining every day about the EU not giving us exactly what you want. I expect you to continue to do so.
    "The rule of law" is that Parliament sets the law and we vote for MPs to set it how we want it setting.

    We don't vote for foreign governments. That is why international law is subordinate to domestic law.
    It’s interesting that you’re so arrogant that you think what you decide is the “rule of law” is more authoritative than experts such as Lord Bingham.
    https://twitter.com/laryginekar/status/1303675978200371203/photo/1
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.
    In reality it needs over 45 given that SF do not take their seats.
    Won't it need about 54? As the DUP will surely vote with the Government on this?
    Possibly so - though it is far from clear that the 8 DUP MPs will be in any hurry to bail out Johnson given his treatment of them a year ago. 'Revenge is a dish best served cold'. How keen would they be to be seen to prop up a PM increasingly seen as discredited - and an embarrassment - even by many of his own MPs?

    They don't hate Johnson like they hate Dublin. They will be dancing through the lobbies in support of this.

    Hitching Johnson's horses to the Unionist cart and shooting the Nationalist horses is unbelievably stupid in terms of how Northern Ireland works.

    Of course it is. But the government is run by English nationalists who care nothing for Northern Ireland except to the extent its retention is important to the maintenance of English prestige. See, also, Scotland.

    Do these people not understand why we have been treading on eggshells in Northern Ireland for the last 25 years? Or do they just not care if we return to the Europa Hotel in Belfast being the most dangerous place to spend a night (again) outside Afghanistan?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:

    Phil said:

    Stocky said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.

    It won't happen, not a chance. If the bill does not pass Johnson will have to resign. If you are going to announce to the world that your government no longer believes in international law and then you cannot deliver on that, you are finished. Tory MPs will understand that and put their party first. It's like the GOP with Trump. The Rubicon will be crossed.

    In all this fury, might I tentativelly point out that the EU are not squeaky clean. I think the UK thought it had a last resort in the form of a Canada deal, then this ...

    https://www.euronews.com/2020/02/19/uk-blasts-eu-s-barnier-for-rejecting-post-brexit-canada-style-trade-deal

    Is this the point that relationships soured beyond repair?
    As far as I can tell, the only "promise" of a Canada-style deal that the EU ever made was a Canadian flag icon on a powerpoint presentation. It seems the UK government has put an awful lot of weight on a powerpoint slide that someone put together to demonstrate a hierarchy of plausible possible deals & the red lines that would have to be crossed in order to get them.

    The idea that a single powerpoint slide ever counted as some kind of guarantee that the UK could pick and choose from the list of deals on that slide according to its choice of redlines seems something of a stretch.
    and @Philip_Thompson continues to whine like a child and throw his toys out of the pram every day that the EU won’t give us the same deal as Canada. It’s really quite amusing.
    LOL I'm not whining, I'm smiling. I literally just said how "delighted" I am and you think that's a whine? Do I need to accompany every post with a smiley face to show you my emotions? 😁

    I am in a very good mood right now about how things are proceeding. This is what I have said for YEARS the Government to do on this site. Fantastic! Well done. :grin:

    The whining seems to be people unhappy about "the rule of law" when if Parliament votes for this Act to go through, then this Act will be the law. No ifs, no buts.
    I’ve already explained that “the rule of law” is not what you think it is - and yet you completely ignored it.

    But regardless, you have been whining every day about the EU not giving us exactly what you want. I expect you to continue to do so.
    "The rule of law" is that Parliament sets the law and we vote for MPs to set it how we want it setting.

    We don't vote for foreign governments. That is why international law is subordinate to domestic law.
    It’s interesting that you’re so arrogant that you think what you decide is the “rule of law” is more authoritative than experts such as Lord Bingham.
    https://twitter.com/laryginekar/status/1303675978200371203/photo/1
    Why do you think i’m disagreeing with you that this is both legal and constitutional, because I’m not?
  • I do think that the Tories are underplaying the possibility that delivering a No Deal on the back of their decision to renege on an international treaty they told the electorate was a triumph and the precursor to a great FTA with the EU may not prove to be immensely popular.

    The rock and hard place Johnson sits between is this. How does he find the votes to put a deal with the EU into law?

    We can assume that, in most cases, the Opposition will find fault with the specifics of the deal and vote against. In the case that the Opposition decide that the deal is worthy of support it is likely that this will trigger a challenge to Johnson's leadership - on the basis that he must have surrendered to Brussels to win the support of Remainers.

    The ERG are likely to view any meaningful compromise with the EU as surrender, to which they would prefer No Deal.

    The only way to win ERG support for a deal is to present it, at the last minute, as a victory over the EU and the Remainers. They have to be convinced that Johnson was not at all afraid of No Deal, and did not compromise in order to avoid it.

    It's not the EU that Johnson has to convince with the No Deal rhetoric, to scare them into submission, it's the ERG who need to be convinced that the EU were cowed.

    I'm not sure that the trick will work a second time. The ERG may drive us off the No Deal cliff even if Johnson doesn't want to.

    Having given the ERG the draft of this bill it will be impossible for Johnson to row back from it. Today is one of the most significant days in modern British history. Our explicit rejection of international law is truly historic.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Map only giving Biden those states where Goodwin gives him +4 or better...
    So Nevada and Pennsylvania will decide the Presidency then as both have Biden 4% or more ahead but less than 5% ahead
    I think you are right there.

    As I say, there is a viable route without PA (it gives exactly 270) which I posted above.

    But, I think it's fairly unlikely to happen.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    Scott_xP said:

    HYUFD said:

    He can and he will, nothing he is doing ends the principle that Westminster is sovereign, including over blocking a legal indyref2 which it will continue to do while he is PM much as Rajoy completely ignored Catalonia's illegal indyref

    The Union is fucked, and BoZo is the father (again)
    The Union will remain while Boris remains PM no matter what the cost, if Starmer decides to allow a legal indyref2 if he becomes PM in 2024 is up to him
  • justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.
    In reality it needs over 45 given that SF do not take their seats.
    Won't it need about 54? As the DUP will surely vote with the Government on this?
    Possibly so - though it is far from clear that the 8 DUP MPs will be in any hurry to bail out Johnson given his treatment of them a year ago. 'Revenge is a dish best served cold'. How keen would they be to be seen to prop up a PM increasingly seen as discredited - and an embarrassment - even by many of his own MPs?

    They don't hate Johnson like they hate Dublin. They will be dancing through the lobbies in support of this.

    Hitching Johnson's horses to the Unionist cart and shooting the Nationalist horses is unbelievably stupid in terms of how Northern Ireland works.

    Of course it is. But the government is run by English nationalists who care nothing for Northern Ireland except to the extent its retention is important to the maintenance of English prestige. See, also, Scotland.

    Do these people not understand why we have been treading on eggshells in Northern Ireland for the last 25 years? Or do they just not care if we return to the Europa Hotel in Belfast being the most dangerous place to spend a night (again) outside Afghanistan?

    Fuck Northern Ireland, to paraphrase a former newspaper columnist.

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    edited September 2020
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    HYUFD said:

    He can and he will, nothing he is doing ends the principle that Westminster is sovereign, including over blocking a legal indyref2 which it will continue to do while he is PM much as Rajoy completely ignored Catalonia's illegal indyref

    The Union is fucked, and BoZo is the father (again)
    The Union will remain while Boris remains PM no matter what the cost, if Starmer decides to allow a legal indyref2 if he becomes PM in 2024 is up to him
    It might be up to him, but Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party will be at fault.

    Well done lads.
  • Phil said:

    Stocky said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.

    It won't happen, not a chance. If the bill does not pass Johnson will have to resign. If you are going to announce to the world that your government no longer believes in international law and then you cannot deliver on that, you are finished. Tory MPs will understand that and put their party first. It's like the GOP with Trump. The Rubicon will be crossed.

    In all this fury, might I tentativelly point out that the EU are not squeaky clean. I think the UK thought it had a last resort in the form of a Canada deal, then this ...

    https://www.euronews.com/2020/02/19/uk-blasts-eu-s-barnier-for-rejecting-post-brexit-canada-style-trade-deal

    Is this the point that relationships soured beyond repair?
    As far as I can tell, the only "promise" of a Canada-style deal that the EU ever made was a Canadian flag icon on a powerpoint presentation. It seems the UK government has put an awful lot of weight on a powerpoint slide that someone put together to demonstrate a hierarchy of plausible possible deals & the red lines that would have to be crossed in order to get them.

    The idea that a single powerpoint slide ever counted as some kind of guarantee that the UK could pick and choose from the list of deals on that slide according to its choice of redlines seems something of a stretch.
    and @Philip_Thompson continues to whine like a child and throw his toys out of the pram every day that the EU won’t give us the same deal as Canada. It’s really quite amusing.
    LOL I'm not whining, I'm smiling. I literally just said how "delighted" I am and you think that's a whine? Do I need to accompany every post with a smiley face to show you my emotions? 😁

    I am in a very good mood right now about how things are proceeding. This is what I have said for YEARS the Government to do on this site. Fantastic! Well done. :grin:

    The whining seems to be people unhappy about "the rule of law" when if Parliament votes for this Act to go through, then this Act will be the law. No ifs, no buts.
    I’ve already explained that “the rule of law” is not what you think it is - and yet you completely ignored it.

    But regardless, you have been whining every day about the EU not giving us exactly what you want. I expect you to continue to do so.
    "The rule of law" is that Parliament sets the law and we vote for MPs to set it how we want it setting.

    We don't vote for foreign governments. That is why international law is subordinate to domestic law.
    It’s interesting that you’re so arrogant that you think what you decide is the “rule of law” is more authoritative than experts such as Lord Bingham.
    Even arch Remainers like Dominic Grieve and Jolyon Maugham QC are agreeing with me on this issue.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1303601637106298883
    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1303601638549184513
    You’re misunderstanding. I’m not disputing that it is legal and constitutional. I’m disputing that it is compatible with the concept that is “the rule of law”.

    Parliamentary Supremacy is not the same as “the rule of law”. Read some Bingham.
    Good, if you're agreeing that this is legal and constitutional we can agree.

    I say this is legal, constitutional and the right thing to do. You say this is legal, constitutional but the wrong thing to do. That's politics.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    Stocky said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.
    Thank goodness Boris got rid of the 20 like Grieve last year.
    There's a lot of "rule of law" Tory MPs though. Rule of law has formed the backbone of the party ever since its foundation, Boris is ripping that up for absolutely no gain.
    There absolutely is a gain.

    Today the Government has shown in no uncertain and absolutely unambiguous terms that the UK is a sovereign country and the EU's sovereign equal.

    Now if the EU wants to start negotiating with us as sovereign equals then they can get a deal and this all goes away.

    If the UK continues to want to treat the UK as some of subservient state in its sphere of influence then the UK has shown today it can look after itself.

    This is the nuclear deterrent and the ball is back in the EU's court now. Their choice where we go next.

    So, once you and other Brexiteers have had their wank over this, what happens then? How does this sovereignty actually improve the lives of people across the country?

    It`s improved many people`s lives already (not me). You are underestimating how happy people are that we are no longer in the EU. I was in Parliament Square 31 Jan - there were literally tears of joy. I`m with you on Brexit, but have recognised long ago thay psychological utility is every bit a valuable as monetary utility.
    Saw a clip of this the other day. One of the banners said 'Hang the Traitors' so I'm not entirely sure happiness was the only emotion abroad in Parliament Square that night.
    No you`re right. My wife and I found it an ugly spectacle with dark undertones. We daren`t say to anyone that we both voted the other way. Farage is a dangerous man.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    We must look like total imbeciles to the rest of the world right now. Good grief.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Would be really interested to see maps from the following gamblers:

    @kinabalu

    @Pulpstar

    @Richard_Nabavi

    @Alistair

    @Casino_Royale

    @MaxPB
  • I do think that the Tories are underplaying the possibility that delivering a No Deal on the back of their decision to renege on an international treaty they told the electorate was a triumph and the precursor to a great FTA with the EU may not prove to be immensely popular.

    The rock and hard place Johnson sits between is this. How does he find the votes to put a deal with the EU into law?

    We can assume that, in most cases, the Opposition will find fault with the specifics of the deal and vote against. In the case that the Opposition decide that the deal is worthy of support it is likely that this will trigger a challenge to Johnson's leadership - on the basis that he must have surrendered to Brussels to win the support of Remainers.

    The ERG are likely to view any meaningful compromise with the EU as surrender, to which they would prefer No Deal.

    The only way to win ERG support for a deal is to present it, at the last minute, as a victory over the EU and the Remainers. They have to be convinced that Johnson was not at all afraid of No Deal, and did not compromise in order to avoid it.

    It's not the EU that Johnson has to convince with the No Deal rhetoric, to scare them into submission, it's the ERG who need to be convinced that the EU were cowed.

    I'm not sure that the trick will work a second time. The ERG may drive us off the No Deal cliff even if Johnson doesn't want to.

    Having given the ERG the draft of this bill it will be impossible for Johnson to row back from it. Today is one of the most significant days in modern British history. Our explicit rejection of international law is truly historic.

    I agree.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.
    Thank goodness Boris got rid of the 20 like Grieve last year.
    There's a lot of "rule of law" Tory MPs though. Rule of law has formed the backbone of the party ever since its foundation, Boris is ripping that up for absolutely no gain.
    There absolutely is a gain.

    Today the Government has shown in no uncertain and absolutely unambiguous terms that the UK is a sovereign country and the EU's sovereign equal.

    Now if the EU wants to start negotiating with us as sovereign equals then they can get a deal and this all goes away.

    If the UK continues to want to treat the UK as some of subservient state in its sphere of influence then the UK has shown today it can look after itself.

    This is the nuclear deterrent and the ball is back in the EU's court now. Their choice where we go next.

    So, once you and other Brexiteers have had their wank over this, what happens then? How does this sovereignty actually improve the lives of people across the country?

    It`s improved many people`s lives already (not me). You are underestimating how happy people are that we are no longer in the EU. I was in Parliament Square 31 Jan - there were literally tears of joy. I`m with you on Brexit, but have recognised long ago thay psychological utility is every bit a valuable as monetary utility.

    That is the wank. As we all know, those do not go on forever. Withdrawing support for internaitonal law will have myriad consequences. First off, we are now almost certain to have no trade deal with the EU. We will also now find it much harder to get deals with other countries, Materially, therefore, the country will be less well and the economy will perform worse than would otherwise have been the case. That will impact jobs, public spending and much more besides. What's more ay an individual level, UK citizens and businesses will not be as free as they are today. All of this will have to be worked through.
    You are imo misreading the politics. I will be astonished if Johnson takes us out of the SM onto basic WTO terms and risks a border in Ireland. There will be a trade deal agreed this year or a quasi extension labelled as a deal. I'm 90% certain of this.
    90%?

    You weren't saying 90% yesterday were you?
    Well nothing outside the laws of physics or Trump Toast is more than 99%.

    What is your % assessment of Deal vs No Deal then?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.
    In reality it needs over 45 given that SF do not take their seats.
    Won't it need about 54? As the DUP will surely vote with the Government on this?
    Possibly so - though it is far from clear that the 8 DUP MPs will be in any hurry to bail out Johnson given his treatment of them a year ago. 'Revenge is a dish best served cold'. How keen would they be to be seen to prop up a PM increasingly seen as discredited - and an embarrassment - even by many of his own MPs?

    They don't hate Johnson like they hate Dublin. They will be dancing through the lobbies in support of this.

    Hitching Johnson's horses to the Unionist cart and shooting the Nationalist horses is unbelievably stupid in terms of how Northern Ireland works.

    Of course it is. But the government is run by English nationalists who care nothing for Northern Ireland except to the extent its retention is important to the maintenance of English prestige. See, also, Scotland.

    Do these people not understand why we have been treading on eggshells in Northern Ireland for the last 25 years? Or do they just not care if we return to the Europa Hotel in Belfast being the most dangerous place to spend a night (again) outside Afghanistan?

    Fuck Northern Ireland, to paraphrase a former newspaper columnist.

    If Boris really wanted to f*** Northern Ireland he would never have signed the Withdrawal Agreement, gone straight to No Deal and started building armed border and customs posts from Foyle to Down the next day.

    However he still wants no hard border with the Republic just to minimise checks from NI to GB too
  • HYUFD said:

    Phil said:

    Stocky said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.

    It won't happen, not a chance. If the bill does not pass Johnson will have to resign. If you are going to announce to the world that your government no longer believes in international law and then you cannot deliver on that, you are finished. Tory MPs will understand that and put their party first. It's like the GOP with Trump. The Rubicon will be crossed.

    In all this fury, might I tentativelly point out that the EU are not squeaky clean. I think the UK thought it had a last resort in the form of a Canada deal, then this ...

    https://www.euronews.com/2020/02/19/uk-blasts-eu-s-barnier-for-rejecting-post-brexit-canada-style-trade-deal

    Is this the point that relationships soured beyond repair?
    As far as I can tell, the only "promise" of a Canada-style deal that the EU ever made was a Canadian flag icon on a powerpoint presentation. It seems the UK government has put an awful lot of weight on a powerpoint slide that someone put together to demonstrate a hierarchy of plausible possible deals & the red lines that would have to be crossed in order to get them.

    The idea that a single powerpoint slide ever counted as some kind of guarantee that the UK could pick and choose from the list of deals on that slide according to its choice of redlines seems something of a stretch.
    and @Philip_Thompson continues to whine like a child and throw his toys out of the pram every day that the EU won’t give us the same deal as Canada. It’s really quite amusing.
    LOL I'm not whining, I'm smiling. I literally just said how "delighted" I am and you think that's a whine? Do I need to accompany every post with a smiley face to show you my emotions? 😁

    I am in a very good mood right now about how things are proceeding. This is what I have said for YEARS the Government to do on this site. Fantastic! Well done. :grin:

    The whining seems to be people unhappy about "the rule of law" when if Parliament votes for this Act to go through, then this Act will be the law. No ifs, no buts.
    I’ve already explained that “the rule of law” is not what you think it is - and yet you completely ignored it.

    But regardless, you have been whining every day about the EU not giving us exactly what you want. I expect you to continue to do so.
    "The rule of law" is that Parliament sets the law and we vote for MPs to set it how we want it setting.

    We don't vote for foreign governments. That is why international law is subordinate to domestic law.
    It’s interesting that you’re so arrogant that you think what you decide is the “rule of law” is more authoritative than experts such as Lord Bingham.
    https://twitter.com/laryginekar/status/1303675978200371203/photo/1
    I would disagree with the idea that International Law has inspired Common Law (as opposed to modern domestic law). Common Law was around long before there was any concept of International Law. If anything it is the other way round with International Law largely being framed in terms that are based on Common Law fundamentals.

    Which is another reason why we are stupid to try and undermine it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,608

    Phil said:

    Stocky said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.

    It won't happen, not a chance. If the bill does not pass Johnson will have to resign. If you are going to announce to the world that your government no longer believes in international law and then you cannot deliver on that, you are finished. Tory MPs will understand that and put their party first. It's like the GOP with Trump. The Rubicon will be crossed.

    In all this fury, might I tentativelly point out that the EU are not squeaky clean. I think the UK thought it had a last resort in the form of a Canada deal, then this ...

    https://www.euronews.com/2020/02/19/uk-blasts-eu-s-barnier-for-rejecting-post-brexit-canada-style-trade-deal

    Is this the point that relationships soured beyond repair?
    As far as I can tell, the only "promise" of a Canada-style deal that the EU ever made was a Canadian flag icon on a powerpoint presentation. It seems the UK government has put an awful lot of weight on a powerpoint slide that someone put together to demonstrate a hierarchy of plausible possible deals & the red lines that would have to be crossed in order to get them.

    The idea that a single powerpoint slide ever counted as some kind of guarantee that the UK could pick and choose from the list of deals on that slide according to its choice of redlines seems something of a stretch.
    and @Philip_Thompson continues to whine like a child and throw his toys out of the pram every day that the EU won’t give us the same deal as Canada. It’s really quite amusing.
    LOL I'm not whining, I'm smiling. I literally just said how "delighted" I am and you think that's a whine? Do I need to accompany every post with a smiley face to show you my emotions? 😁

    I am in a very good mood right now about how things are proceeding. This is what I have said for YEARS the Government to do on this site. Fantastic! Well done. :grin:

    The whining seems to be people unhappy about "the rule of law" when if Parliament votes for this Act to go through, then this Act will be the law. No ifs, no buts.
    The people so exercised about International obligations were noticeably quiet when the French utterly ignored their International obligaion in respect of, oh, British beef for instance.

    We are doing no more than the French regulalry do without sanction.

    Rainbow Warrior, anyone?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    Phil said:

    Stocky said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.

    It won't happen, not a chance. If the bill does not pass Johnson will have to resign. If you are going to announce to the world that your government no longer believes in international law and then you cannot deliver on that, you are finished. Tory MPs will understand that and put their party first. It's like the GOP with Trump. The Rubicon will be crossed.

    In all this fury, might I tentativelly point out that the EU are not squeaky clean. I think the UK thought it had a last resort in the form of a Canada deal, then this ...

    https://www.euronews.com/2020/02/19/uk-blasts-eu-s-barnier-for-rejecting-post-brexit-canada-style-trade-deal

    Is this the point that relationships soured beyond repair?
    As far as I can tell, the only "promise" of a Canada-style deal that the EU ever made was a Canadian flag icon on a powerpoint presentation. It seems the UK government has put an awful lot of weight on a powerpoint slide that someone put together to demonstrate a hierarchy of plausible possible deals & the red lines that would have to be crossed in order to get them.

    The idea that a single powerpoint slide ever counted as some kind of guarantee that the UK could pick and choose from the list of deals on that slide according to its choice of redlines seems something of a stretch.
    and @Philip_Thompson continues to whine like a child and throw his toys out of the pram every day that the EU won’t give us the same deal as Canada. It’s really quite amusing.
    LOL I'm not whining, I'm smiling. I literally just said how "delighted" I am and you think that's a whine? Do I need to accompany every post with a smiley face to show you my emotions? 😁

    I am in a very good mood right now about how things are proceeding. This is what I have said for YEARS the Government to do on this site. Fantastic! Well done. :grin:

    The whining seems to be people unhappy about "the rule of law" when if Parliament votes for this Act to go through, then this Act will be the law. No ifs, no buts.
    I’ve already explained that “the rule of law” is not what you think it is - and yet you completely ignored it.

    But regardless, you have been whining every day about the EU not giving us exactly what you want. I expect you to continue to do so.
    "The rule of law" is that Parliament sets the law and we vote for MPs to set it how we want it setting.

    We don't vote for foreign governments. That is why international law is subordinate to domestic law.
    It’s interesting that you’re so arrogant that you think what you decide is the “rule of law” is more authoritative than experts such as Lord Bingham.
    Even arch Remainers like Dominic Grieve and Jolyon Maugham QC are agreeing with me on this issue.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1303601637106298883
    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1303601638549184513
    You’re misunderstanding. I’m not disputing that it is legal and constitutional. I’m disputing that it is compatible with the concept that is “the rule of law”.

    Parliamentary Supremacy is not the same as “the rule of law”. Read some Bingham.
    Good, if you're agreeing that this is legal and constitutional we can agree.

    I say this is legal, constitutional and the right thing to do. You say this is legal, constitutional but the wrong thing to do. That's politics.
    We were debating whether it was compatible with “the rule of law” which is a specific legal concept. Just like in our argument about economics where you told me I shouldn’t use “public good” willy nilly, you shouldn’t use “the rule of law” willy nilly.

    There’s no doubting that this is legal and constitutional, but it almost certainly is not compatible with “the rule of law” which to most legal scholars requires compliance with “international law”.
  • HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.

    It won't happen, not a chance. If the bill does not pass Johnson will have to resign. If you are going to announce to the world that your government no longer believes in international law and then you cannot deliver on that, you are finished. Tory MPs will understand that and put their party first. It's like the GOP with Trump. The Rubicon will be crossed.

    Technically as it would remove the border in the Irish sea the DUP would likely vote for the amendment, so it only needs 318 out of 365 Tory MPs to vote for it for the bill to pass if the 8 DUP MPs decide to back it

    The DUP will dance through the lobbies in support of this legislation. The Lords will reject it, of course - which eans it will not hit the statute books until some time in 2022. So the interesting bit is what happens in the meantime. The government will presumably have to abide by the law as it is.
    The Lords, as currently constituted, would be expected to block this Bill, but Cummings does not strike me as an individual who would be shy of creating a few hundred Lords Brexit if that was necessary.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    Phil said:

    Stocky said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.

    It won't happen, not a chance. If the bill does not pass Johnson will have to resign. If you are going to announce to the world that your government no longer believes in international law and then you cannot deliver on that, you are finished. Tory MPs will understand that and put their party first. It's like the GOP with Trump. The Rubicon will be crossed.

    In all this fury, might I tentativelly point out that the EU are not squeaky clean. I think the UK thought it had a last resort in the form of a Canada deal, then this ...

    https://www.euronews.com/2020/02/19/uk-blasts-eu-s-barnier-for-rejecting-post-brexit-canada-style-trade-deal

    Is this the point that relationships soured beyond repair?
    As far as I can tell, the only "promise" of a Canada-style deal that the EU ever made was a Canadian flag icon on a powerpoint presentation. It seems the UK government has put an awful lot of weight on a powerpoint slide that someone put together to demonstrate a hierarchy of plausible possible deals & the red lines that would have to be crossed in order to get them.

    The idea that a single powerpoint slide ever counted as some kind of guarantee that the UK could pick and choose from the list of deals on that slide according to its choice of redlines seems something of a stretch.
    and @Philip_Thompson continues to whine like a child and throw his toys out of the pram every day that the EU won’t give us the same deal as Canada. It’s really quite amusing.
    LOL I'm not whining, I'm smiling. I literally just said how "delighted" I am and you think that's a whine? Do I need to accompany every post with a smiley face to show you my emotions? 😁

    I am in a very good mood right now about how things are proceeding. This is what I have said for YEARS the Government to do on this site. Fantastic! Well done. :grin:

    The whining seems to be people unhappy about "the rule of law" when if Parliament votes for this Act to go through, then this Act will be the law. No ifs, no buts.
    I’ve already explained that “the rule of law” is not what you think it is - and yet you completely ignored it.

    But regardless, you have been whining every day about the EU not giving us exactly what you want. I expect you to continue to do so.
    "The rule of law" is that Parliament sets the law and we vote for MPs to set it how we want it setting.

    We don't vote for foreign governments. That is why international law is subordinate to domestic law.
    It’s interesting that you’re so arrogant that you think what you decide is the “rule of law” is more authoritative than experts such as Lord Bingham.
    Even arch Remainers like Dominic Grieve and Jolyon Maugham QC are agreeing with me on this issue.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1303601637106298883
    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1303601638549184513
    You’re misunderstanding. I’m not disputing that it is legal and constitutional. I’m disputing that it is compatible with the concept that is “the rule of law”.

    Parliamentary Supremacy is not the same as “the rule of law”. Read some Bingham.
    A sovereign parliament can vote for it to be legal to summarily execute anyone with a thick Birmingham accent. When Philip Thompson or HYUFD shoot me, they will not have broken UK law. Mad!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    edited September 2020

    We must look like total imbeciles to the rest of the world right now. Good grief.

    A world which has recently elected populists from Brazil to Mexico, Poland to the USA, India to the Philippines to South Africa and Greece?
  • Phil said:

    Stocky said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.

    It won't happen, not a chance. If the bill does not pass Johnson will have to resign. If you are going to announce to the world that your government no longer believes in international law and then you cannot deliver on that, you are finished. Tory MPs will understand that and put their party first. It's like the GOP with Trump. The Rubicon will be crossed.

    In all this fury, might I tentativelly point out that the EU are not squeaky clean. I think the UK thought it had a last resort in the form of a Canada deal, then this ...

    https://www.euronews.com/2020/02/19/uk-blasts-eu-s-barnier-for-rejecting-post-brexit-canada-style-trade-deal

    Is this the point that relationships soured beyond repair?
    As far as I can tell, the only "promise" of a Canada-style deal that the EU ever made was a Canadian flag icon on a powerpoint presentation. It seems the UK government has put an awful lot of weight on a powerpoint slide that someone put together to demonstrate a hierarchy of plausible possible deals & the red lines that would have to be crossed in order to get them.

    The idea that a single powerpoint slide ever counted as some kind of guarantee that the UK could pick and choose from the list of deals on that slide according to its choice of redlines seems something of a stretch.
    and @Philip_Thompson continues to whine like a child and throw his toys out of the pram every day that the EU won’t give us the same deal as Canada. It’s really quite amusing.
    LOL I'm not whining, I'm smiling. I literally just said how "delighted" I am and you think that's a whine? Do I need to accompany every post with a smiley face to show you my emotions? 😁

    I am in a very good mood right now about how things are proceeding. This is what I have said for YEARS the Government to do on this site. Fantastic! Well done. :grin:

    The whining seems to be people unhappy about "the rule of law" when if Parliament votes for this Act to go through, then this Act will be the law. No ifs, no buts.
    I’ve already explained that “the rule of law” is not what you think it is - and yet you completely ignored it.

    But regardless, you have been whining every day about the EU not giving us exactly what you want. I expect you to continue to do so.
    "The rule of law" is that Parliament sets the law and we vote for MPs to set it how we want it setting.

    We don't vote for foreign governments. That is why international law is subordinate to domestic law.

    Ultimately, the rule of law is what the government says it is. What makes you confident that a government which explicitly rejects international law - and seeks to emasculate the judiciary while reducing the power of Parliament to scrutinise its actions - believes in free and fair elections?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Boris Johnson's claim that the proposed legislation is necessary to prevent an "irrational interpretation of the Withdrawal Agreement" that would lead to a border in the Irish Sea is about as disingenuous and contemptible a statement he could make about the whole issue.

    Everyone knew the withdrawal agreement would create a border in the Irish Sea. It was the EU's original proposal as an alternative to a hard border on the island of Ireland. The unacceptability of the proposal was the entire reason why May rejected and came up with the alternative proposal of the UK as a whole remaining within the customs union under the backstop.

    It was pointed out by absolutely EVERYONE at the time that Johnson 'renegotiated' May's agreement that the effect of the renegotiation was to create a de facto border in the Irish sea. Even the Hard Brexiters knew it, who only voted for it on the basis that the Agreement would be subsequently ditched.

    The argument that THE CENTRAL CONSEQUENCE of Johnson's agreement is some sort of "irrational interpretation" that he rejects and needs to be legislated against is absolutely laughable. Whatever he said to some group of Conservative businessmen (and was roundly laughed at) in November.

    If Johnson rejects a border on the island of Ireland, and rejects a border down the Irish Sea, then where is the border between the UK and the EU? A border that we have allegedly left the EU to gain control of. Perhaps he's going to pull the technological solutions out of his back pocket along with his moon rocket powered by AA batteries?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    edited September 2020

    Stocky said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.
    Thank goodness Boris got rid of the 20 like Grieve last year.
    There's a lot of "rule of law" Tory MPs though. Rule of law has formed the backbone of the party ever since its foundation, Boris is ripping that up for absolutely no gain.
    There absolutely is a gain.

    Today the Government has shown in no uncertain and absolutely unambiguous terms that the UK is a sovereign country and the EU's sovereign equal.

    Now if the EU wants to start negotiating with us as sovereign equals then they can get a deal and this all goes away.

    If the UK continues to want to treat the UK as some of subservient state in its sphere of influence then the UK has shown today it can look after itself.

    This is the nuclear deterrent and the ball is back in the EU's court now. Their choice where we go next.

    So, once you and other Brexiteers have had their wank over this, what happens then? How does this sovereignty actually improve the lives of people across the country?

    It`s improved many people`s lives already (not me). You are underestimating how happy people are that we are no longer in the EU. I was in Parliament Square 31 Jan - there were literally tears of joy. I`m with you on Brexit, but have recognised long ago thay psychological utility is every bit a valuable as monetary utility.
    Saw a clip of this the other day. One of the banners said 'Hang the Traitors' so I'm not entirely sure happiness was the only emotion abroad in Parliament Square that night.
    Well, one man's guttural delight at the prospect of violence being meted out to political opponents is another man's ...
  • This feels like the day the Boris government died.
  • HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.
    In reality it needs over 45 given that SF do not take their seats.
    Won't it need about 54? As the DUP will surely vote with the Government on this?
    Possibly so - though it is far from clear that the 8 DUP MPs will be in any hurry to bail out Johnson given his treatment of them a year ago. 'Revenge is a dish best served cold'. How keen would they be to be seen to prop up a PM increasingly seen as discredited - and an embarrassment - even by many of his own MPs?

    They don't hate Johnson like they hate Dublin. They will be dancing through the lobbies in support of this.

    Hitching Johnson's horses to the Unionist cart and shooting the Nationalist horses is unbelievably stupid in terms of how Northern Ireland works.

    Of course it is. But the government is run by English nationalists who care nothing for Northern Ireland except to the extent its retention is important to the maintenance of English prestige. See, also, Scotland.

    Do these people not understand why we have been treading on eggshells in Northern Ireland for the last 25 years? Or do they just not care if we return to the Europa Hotel in Belfast being the most dangerous place to spend a night (again) outside Afghanistan?

    Fuck Northern Ireland, to paraphrase a former newspaper columnist.

    If Boris really wanted to f*** Northern Ireland he would never have signed the Withdrawal Agreement, gone straight to No Deal and started building armed border and customs posts from Foyle to Down the next day.

    However he still wants no hard border with the Republic just to minimise checks from NI to GB too

    There are any ways to fuck Northern Ireland. This legislaiotn is one of them.

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:

    We must look like total imbeciles to the rest of the world right now. Good grief.

    A world which has recently elected populists from Brazil to Mexico, Poland to the USA, India to the Philippines to South Africa and Greece?
    We’ve agreed and signed a deal to much acclaim and boasting, won a huge majority off the back of it, and now we’ve decided it’s actually sh*t and thrown our toys out of the pram.

    Populism has nothing to do with it. Boris’s “oven ready” Brexit was popular enough for him to win a 80-seat majority off the back of it. He’s now trashed his flagship policy. We look like imbeciles.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    edited September 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    As Westminster remains sovereign over whether to grant a legal indyref2 as to whether there should be a border in the Irish Sea
  • RobD said:

    .

    Scott_xP said:
    Don't acts repeal other acts all the time? The only extraordinary bit is the international bit (and that still happens from time to time, apparently?)
    The remarkable bit is that they think they can do this and the WA will still exist. It won't. By reneging on any part of it they renege on the whole.
  • kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.
    Thank goodness Boris got rid of the 20 like Grieve last year.
    There's a lot of "rule of law" Tory MPs though. Rule of law has formed the backbone of the party ever since its foundation, Boris is ripping that up for absolutely no gain.
    There absolutely is a gain.

    Today the Government has shown in no uncertain and absolutely unambiguous terms that the UK is a sovereign country and the EU's sovereign equal.

    Now if the EU wants to start negotiating with us as sovereign equals then they can get a deal and this all goes away.

    If the UK continues to want to treat the UK as some of subservient state in its sphere of influence then the UK has shown today it can look after itself.

    This is the nuclear deterrent and the ball is back in the EU's court now. Their choice where we go next.

    So, once you and other Brexiteers have had their wank over this, what happens then? How does this sovereignty actually improve the lives of people across the country?

    It`s improved many people`s lives already (not me). You are underestimating how happy people are that we are no longer in the EU. I was in Parliament Square 31 Jan - there were literally tears of joy. I`m with you on Brexit, but have recognised long ago thay psychological utility is every bit a valuable as monetary utility.

    That is the wank. As we all know, those do not go on forever. Withdrawing support for internaitonal law will have myriad consequences. First off, we are now almost certain to have no trade deal with the EU. We will also now find it much harder to get deals with other countries, Materially, therefore, the country will be less well and the economy will perform worse than would otherwise have been the case. That will impact jobs, public spending and much more besides. What's more ay an individual level, UK citizens and businesses will not be as free as they are today. All of this will have to be worked through.
    You are imo misreading the politics. I will be astonished if Johnson takes us out of the SM onto basic WTO terms and risks a border in Ireland. There will be a trade deal agreed this year or a quasi extension labelled as a deal. I'm 90% certain of this.
    90%?

    You weren't saying 90% yesterday were you?
    Well nothing outside the laws of physics or Trump Toast is more than 99%.

    What is your % assessment of Deal vs No Deal then?
    After today? I don't think the UK can blink from this, so lets say 1% chance of the UK backing down and accepting a BINO deal.

    I think this will serious piss off and anger the EU. So the question is do they feel backed into a corner and have no choice to back down, or if they feel they can't lose face and need to fight this tooth and claw.

    I'd guess:
    60% chance of a minimal, Australian-style deal.
    20% chance of the EU agreeing to a full Canada style deal.
    20% chance of No Deal at all.
    1% chance of the UK agreeing to a BINO deal

    Not adding up to 100% due to rounding.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464

    As Starmer put it weeks ago - you are the Prime Minister. You are in charge. Shagger seems to think that because SKS is asking questions that it must all be his fault somehow.

    He does look ill though. Lovely ladies of the court will be safe from his "I I knocked you up twice and lied to my wife about it" advances. A man of trust.

    He's not THAT ill is he?
  • RobD said:

    .

    Scott_xP said:
    Don't acts repeal other acts all the time? The only extraordinary bit is the international bit (and that still happens from time to time, apparently?)
    The remarkable bit is that they think they can do this and the WA will still exist. It won't. By reneging on any part of it they renege on the whole.
    Given the transition ends 31/12 and this law doesn't come into effect until 1/1 then what are we worried about losing legally?
  • This will be a process. But it is now clear where the landing zone is. Poland, Hungary and Turkey provide the template.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    alex_ said:

    Boris Johnson's claim that the proposed legislation is necessary to prevent an "irrational interpretation of the Withdrawal Agreement" that would lead to a border in the Irish Sea is about as disingenuous and contemptible a statement he could make about the whole issue.

    Everyone knew the withdrawal agreement would create a border in the Irish Sea. It was the EU's original proposal as an alternative to a hard border on the island of Ireland. The unacceptability of the proposal was the entire reason why May rejected and came up with the alternative proposal of the UK as a whole remaining within the customs union under the backstop.

    It was pointed out by absolutely EVERYONE at the time that Johnson 'renegotiated' May's agreement that the effect of the renegotiation was to create a de facto border in the Irish sea. Even the Hard Brexiters knew it, who only voted for it on the basis that the Agreement would be subsequently ditched.

    The argument that THE CENTRAL CONSEQUENCE of Johnson's agreement is some sort of "irrational interpretation" that he rejects and needs to be legislated against is absolutely laughable. Whatever he said to some group of Conservative businessmen (and was roundly laughed at) in November.

    If Johnson rejects a border on the island of Ireland, and rejects a border down the Irish Sea, then where is the border between the UK and the EU? A border that we have allegedly left the EU to gain control of. Perhaps he's going to pull the technological solutions out of his back pocket along with his moon rocket powered by AA batteries?

    I think you are overanalysing. This government WANTS to be seen to reject any legal constraint on it, particularly from Europe. Johnson was annoyed with Starmer for not challenging him in PMQs on breaking the law, so he didn't get a chance to crow about it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    edited September 2020

    HYUFD said:

    We must look like total imbeciles to the rest of the world right now. Good grief.

    A world which has recently elected populists from Brazil to Mexico, Poland to the USA, India to the Philippines to South Africa and Greece?
    We’ve agreed and signed a deal to much acclaim and boasting, won a huge majority off the back of it, and now we’ve decided it’s actually sh*t and thrown our toys out of the pram.

    Populism has nothing to do with it. Boris’s “oven ready” Brexit was popular enough for him to win a 80-seat majority off the back of it. He’s now trashed his flagship policy. We look like imbeciles.
    Boris won a majority on a commitment to regain our fishing waters and not to accept supreme EU law and if the EU refused not to extend the transition period, all that also in the winning 2019 Tory manifesto
  • Phil said:

    Stocky said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.

    It won't happen, not a chance. If the bill does not pass Johnson will have to resign. If you are going to announce to the world that your government no longer believes in international law and then you cannot deliver on that, you are finished. Tory MPs will understand that and put their party first. It's like the GOP with Trump. The Rubicon will be crossed.

    In all this fury, might I tentativelly point out that the EU are not squeaky clean. I think the UK thought it had a last resort in the form of a Canada deal, then this ...

    https://www.euronews.com/2020/02/19/uk-blasts-eu-s-barnier-for-rejecting-post-brexit-canada-style-trade-deal

    Is this the point that relationships soured beyond repair?
    As far as I can tell, the only "promise" of a Canada-style deal that the EU ever made was a Canadian flag icon on a powerpoint presentation. It seems the UK government has put an awful lot of weight on a powerpoint slide that someone put together to demonstrate a hierarchy of plausible possible deals & the red lines that would have to be crossed in order to get them.

    The idea that a single powerpoint slide ever counted as some kind of guarantee that the UK could pick and choose from the list of deals on that slide according to its choice of redlines seems something of a stretch.
    and @Philip_Thompson continues to whine like a child and throw his toys out of the pram every day that the EU won’t give us the same deal as Canada. It’s really quite amusing.
    LOL I'm not whining, I'm smiling. I literally just said how "delighted" I am and you think that's a whine? Do I need to accompany every post with a smiley face to show you my emotions? 😁

    I am in a very good mood right now about how things are proceeding. This is what I have said for YEARS the Government to do on this site. Fantastic! Well done. :grin:

    The whining seems to be people unhappy about "the rule of law" when if Parliament votes for this Act to go through, then this Act will be the law. No ifs, no buts.
    I’ve already explained that “the rule of law” is not what you think it is - and yet you completely ignored it.

    But regardless, you have been whining every day about the EU not giving us exactly what you want. I expect you to continue to do so.
    "The rule of law" is that Parliament sets the law and we vote for MPs to set it how we want it setting.

    We don't vote for foreign governments. That is why international law is subordinate to domestic law.

    Ultimately, the rule of law is what the government says it is. What makes you confident that a government which explicitly rejects international law - and seeks to emasculate the judiciary while reducing the power of Parliament to scrutinise its actions - believes in free and fair elections?
    Nothing.

    That is why we need eternal vigilance.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999
    edited September 2020
    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.
    Thank goodness Boris got rid of the 20 like Grieve last year.
    There's a lot of "rule of law" Tory MPs though. Rule of law has formed the backbone of the party ever since its foundation, Boris is ripping that up for absolutely no gain.
    There absolutely is a gain.

    Today the Government has shown in no uncertain and absolutely unambiguous terms that the UK is a sovereign country and the EU's sovereign equal.

    Now if the EU wants to start negotiating with us as sovereign equals then they can get a deal and this all goes away.

    If the UK continues to want to treat the UK as some of subservient state in its sphere of influence then the UK has shown today it can look after itself.

    This is the nuclear deterrent and the ball is back in the EU's court now. Their choice where we go next.

    So, once you and other Brexiteers have had their wank over this, what happens then? How does this sovereignty actually improve the lives of people across the country?

    It`s improved many people`s lives already (not me). You are underestimating how happy people are that we are no longer in the EU. I was in Parliament Square 31 Jan - there were literally tears of joy. I`m with you on Brexit, but have recognised long ago thay psychological utility is every bit a valuable as monetary utility.
    Saw a clip of this the other day. One of the banners said 'Hang the Traitors' so I'm not entirely sure happiness was the only emotion abroad in Parliament Square that night.
    No you`re right. My wife and I found it an ugly spectacle with dark undertones. We daren`t say to anyone that we both voted the other way. Farage is a dangerous man.
    That's what's worrying. I'm not a 'Hang the traitors' kinda guy but if I was, the moment my political aspirations were being gratified would be very much the time to give up on wanting to hang the traitors. A lot of folk seem permanently enraged at the moment, regardless of circs.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    This feels like the day the Boris government died.

    Why? It has a majority of 80 until 2024 and still even narrowly leads the polls
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Would be really interested to see maps from the following gamblers:

    @kinabalu

    @Pulpstar

    @Richard_Nabavi

    @Alistair

    @Casino_Royale

    @MaxPB

    Although I talk a big game I only have mid 3 figures on this election. My exposure limits are low.
  • This feels like the day the Boris government died.

    He’s certainly lost any blame game over No Deal, if it comes to that.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    edited September 2020
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We must look like total imbeciles to the rest of the world right now. Good grief.

    A world which has recently elected populists from Brazil to Mexico, Poland to the USA, India to the Philippines to South Africa and Greece?
    We’ve agreed and signed a deal to much acclaim and boasting, won a huge majority off the back of it, and now we’ve decided it’s actually sh*t and thrown our toys out of the pram.

    Populism has nothing to do with it. Boris’s “oven ready” Brexit was popular enough for him to win a 80-seat majority off the back of it. He’s now trashed his flagship policy. We look like imbeciles.
    Boris won a majority on a commitment to regain our fishing waters and not to accept supreme EU law and if the EU refused not to extend the transition period, all that also in the winning 2019 Tory manifesto
    Yes, we would regain our fishing waters and end the supremacy of EU law by passing the Withdrawal Agreement and “Getting Brexit Done”. The entire campaign was focused on Boris’s incredible deal to get Brexit done.

    We’ve now decided said WA is in fact rubbish. He’s trashed his flagship policy. Thanks to your idiotic party we all look like total imbeciles.
  • Phil said:

    Stocky said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.

    It won't happen, not a chance. If the bill does not pass Johnson will have to resign. If you are going to announce to the world that your government no longer believes in international law and then you cannot deliver on that, you are finished. Tory MPs will understand that and put their party first. It's like the GOP with Trump. The Rubicon will be crossed.

    In all this fury, might I tentativelly point out that the EU are not squeaky clean. I think the UK thought it had a last resort in the form of a Canada deal, then this ...

    https://www.euronews.com/2020/02/19/uk-blasts-eu-s-barnier-for-rejecting-post-brexit-canada-style-trade-deal

    Is this the point that relationships soured beyond repair?
    As far as I can tell, the only "promise" of a Canada-style deal that the EU ever made was a Canadian flag icon on a powerpoint presentation. It seems the UK government has put an awful lot of weight on a powerpoint slide that someone put together to demonstrate a hierarchy of plausible possible deals & the red lines that would have to be crossed in order to get them.

    The idea that a single powerpoint slide ever counted as some kind of guarantee that the UK could pick and choose from the list of deals on that slide according to its choice of redlines seems something of a stretch.
    and @Philip_Thompson continues to whine like a child and throw his toys out of the pram every day that the EU won’t give us the same deal as Canada. It’s really quite amusing.
    LOL I'm not whining, I'm smiling. I literally just said how "delighted" I am and you think that's a whine? Do I need to accompany every post with a smiley face to show you my emotions? 😁

    I am in a very good mood right now about how things are proceeding. This is what I have said for YEARS the Government to do on this site. Fantastic! Well done. :grin:

    The whining seems to be people unhappy about "the rule of law" when if Parliament votes for this Act to go through, then this Act will be the law. No ifs, no buts.
    I’ve already explained that “the rule of law” is not what you think it is - and yet you completely ignored it.

    But regardless, you have been whining every day about the EU not giving us exactly what you want. I expect you to continue to do so.
    "The rule of law" is that Parliament sets the law and we vote for MPs to set it how we want it setting.

    We don't vote for foreign governments. That is why international law is subordinate to domestic law.
    It’s interesting that you’re so arrogant that you think what you decide is the “rule of law” is more authoritative than experts such as Lord Bingham.
    Even arch Remainers like Dominic Grieve and Jolyon Maugham QC are agreeing with me on this issue.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1303601637106298883
    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1303601638549184513
    You’re misunderstanding. I’m not disputing that it is legal and constitutional. I’m disputing that it is compatible with the concept that is “the rule of law”.

    Parliamentary Supremacy is not the same as “the rule of law”. Read some Bingham.
    Good, if you're agreeing that this is legal and constitutional we can agree.

    I say this is legal, constitutional and the right thing to do. You say this is legal, constitutional but the wrong thing to do. That's politics.
    We were debating whether it was compatible with “the rule of law” which is a specific legal concept. Just like in our argument about economics where you told me I shouldn’t use “public good” willy nilly, you shouldn’t use “the rule of law” willy nilly.

    There’s no doubting that this is legal and constitutional, but it almost certainly is not compatible with “the rule of law” which to most legal scholars requires compliance with “international law”.
    Fair enough, if that's what it requires then I will defer to your phrasing on this concept then. I was using the phrase to mean legal and constitutional.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,707
    Starmer basically asked exactly the same question 5 times today and didn't get any more out of Boris (which wasn't much anyway) after the first go.

    I assume he was basically just running down the clock to avoid any discussion about Brexit, if not he was quite ineffective today.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    HYUFD said:

    This feels like the day the Boris government died.

    Why? It has a majority of 80 until 2024 and still even narrowly leads the polls
    Because 'feels' are obviously more important than facts... :wink:
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We must look like total imbeciles to the rest of the world right now. Good grief.

    A world which has recently elected populists from Brazil to Mexico, Poland to the USA, India to the Philippines to South Africa and Greece?
    We’ve agreed and signed a deal to much acclaim and boasting, won a huge majority off the back of it, and now we’ve decided it’s actually sh*t and thrown our toys out of the pram.

    Populism has nothing to do with it. Boris’s “oven ready” Brexit was popular enough for him to win a 80-seat majority off the back of it. He’s now trashed his flagship policy. We look like imbeciles.
    Boris won a majority on a commitment to regain our fishing waters and not to accept supreme EU law and if the EU refused not to extend the transition period, all that also in the winning 2019 Tory manifesto
    Yes, we would regain our fishing waters and end the supremacy of EU law by passing the Withdrawal Agreement and “Getting Brexit Done”. The entire campaign was focused on Boris’s incredible deal to get Brexit done.

    We’ve now decided said WA is in fact rubbish. He’s trashed his flagship policy. Thanks to your idiotic party we all look like total imbeciles.
    You don't play Chess do you? You're thinking one move at a time.

    I don't think there will be many people who supported Boris fully for what he was doing a year ago who feel imbecilic now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We must look like total imbeciles to the rest of the world right now. Good grief.

    A world which has recently elected populists from Brazil to Mexico, Poland to the USA, India to the Philippines to South Africa and Greece?
    We’ve agreed and signed a deal to much acclaim and boasting, won a huge majority off the back of it, and now we’ve decided it’s actually sh*t and thrown our toys out of the pram.

    Populism has nothing to do with it. Boris’s “oven ready” Brexit was popular enough for him to win a 80-seat majority off the back of it. He’s now trashed his flagship policy. We look like imbeciles.
    Boris won a majority on a commitment to regain our fishing waters and not to accept supreme EU law and if the EU refused not to extend the transition period, all that also in the winning 2019 Tory manifesto
    Yes, we would regain our fishing waters and end the supremacy of EU law by passing the Withdrawal Agreement and “Getting Brexit Done”. The entire campaign was focused on Boris’s incredible deal to get Brexit done.

    We’ve now decided said WA is in fact rubbish. He’s trashed his flagship policy. Thanks to your idiotic party we all look like total imbeciles.
    Yes and the Withdrawal Agreement was passed as per the Tory manifesto, the EU then refused to agree the other core promises in the Tory manifesto on fishing and ending EU law supremacy so that makes no subsequent trade deal inevitable.

    We always were willing to do a Canada style deal, the EU were not
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217

    Would be really interested to see maps from the following gamblers:

    @kinabalu

    @Pulpstar

    @Richard_Nabavi

    @Alistair

    @Casino_Royale

    @MaxPB

    Whenever I see state level polling in the US, I'm reminded of the constituency level polling by Lord Ashcroft for the 2015 UK General Election.

    It gave the LibDems an enormous amount of enthusiasm - ignore, they would say - the national polling showing us in single figures, at a constituency level we've got the votes where it counts.

    Those local polls led to some thinking the LibDems would end up with 20 or more seats rather than... oohhh... 8.

    In 2016, the state level polls were dreadful. Wisconsin, on the RCP averages, was a Clinton lead of 6.5% on the eve of the election.

    These state level poll leads gave the Clinton campaign an unwarranted sense of security.

    The national polls though, showed a sharply narrowing race. Again, using the RCP numbers Clinton's lead went from five points mid October to under two points on November 3.

    If you looked at the National polls, you would have seen that the race was tightening dramatically.

    I expect that Trump will eat into the share of DKs between now and the election. But if Biden ends up getting his current polling average (and I can't find any candidate that did not exceed their early September average in November), then it will be extremely hard for Trump to win.

    The Nate Cohen / 538 numbers say that if it's a 2-3 point lead for Biden, then it's 50/50 whether it's Trump or Biden.

    That means for this race to be genuinely 50/50, that Trump has to take a Biden lead of 7.8 points in the latest 538 poll and bring it down by five and a half points.

    Possible for sure. But far from likely.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We must look like total imbeciles to the rest of the world right now. Good grief.

    A world which has recently elected populists from Brazil to Mexico, Poland to the USA, India to the Philippines to South Africa and Greece?
    We’ve agreed and signed a deal to much acclaim and boasting, won a huge majority off the back of it, and now we’ve decided it’s actually sh*t and thrown our toys out of the pram.

    Populism has nothing to do with it. Boris’s “oven ready” Brexit was popular enough for him to win a 80-seat majority off the back of it. He’s now trashed his flagship policy. We look like imbeciles.
    Boris won a majority on a commitment to regain our fishing waters and not to accept supreme EU law and if the EU refused not to extend the transition period, all that also in the winning 2019 Tory manifesto
    Yes, we would regain our fishing waters and end the supremacy of EU law by passing the Withdrawal Agreement and “Getting Brexit Done”. The entire campaign was focused on Boris’s incredible deal to get Brexit done.

    We’ve now decided said WA is in fact rubbish. He’s trashed his flagship policy. Thanks to your idiotic party we all look like total imbeciles.
    Yes and the Withdrawal Agreement was passed as per the Tory manifesto, the EU then refused to agree the other core promises in the Tory manifesto on fishing and ending EU law supremacy so that makes no subsequent trade deal inevitable.

    We always were willing to do a Canada style deal, the EU were not
    The Conservatives were never in a position to promise something that was outside their control.

    We’re not talking about trade deals, we’re talking about Boris trashing the flagship policy off the back of which they won an 80 seat majority. The WA which Boris Johnson spent months telling us, and the world, how fantastic it was.
  • Scott_xP said:

    We fucked up cos BoZo wanted to be World King...

    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1303684278891446283

    And the big plan is to sign a new trade deal negotiated in the next few weeks? A government can't long campaign against itself.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Alistair said:

    Would be really interested to see maps from the following gamblers:

    @kinabalu

    @Pulpstar

    @Richard_Nabavi

    @Alistair

    @Casino_Royale

    @MaxPB


    Although I talk a big game I only have mid 3 figures on this election. My exposure limits are low.
    Sure, would still like to see your map – I value your analysis.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    edited September 2020

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We must look like total imbeciles to the rest of the world right now. Good grief.

    A world which has recently elected populists from Brazil to Mexico, Poland to the USA, India to the Philippines to South Africa and Greece?
    We’ve agreed and signed a deal to much acclaim and boasting, won a huge majority off the back of it, and now we’ve decided it’s actually sh*t and thrown our toys out of the pram.

    Populism has nothing to do with it. Boris’s “oven ready” Brexit was popular enough for him to win a 80-seat majority off the back of it. He’s now trashed his flagship policy. We look like imbeciles.
    Boris won a majority on a commitment to regain our fishing waters and not to accept supreme EU law and if the EU refused not to extend the transition period, all that also in the winning 2019 Tory manifesto
    Yes, we would regain our fishing waters and end the supremacy of EU law by passing the Withdrawal Agreement and “Getting Brexit Done”. The entire campaign was focused on Boris’s incredible deal to get Brexit done.

    We’ve now decided said WA is in fact rubbish. He’s trashed his flagship policy. Thanks to your idiotic party we all look like total imbeciles.
    You don't play Chess do you? You're thinking one move at a time.

    I don't think there will be many people who supported Boris fully for what he was doing a year ago who feel imbecilic now.
    They might not feel ibecillic but to the outside world we all look like imbeciles. It’s embarrassing.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    nichomar said:

    What are the rules around care homes? Are they completely locked down including staff. If the Uk wants to take note of one thing from Spain is the rapid rise in cases in care homes, whilst they maintained visitor social distancing it looks like staff are bringing in the virus.

    The other thing I note from some posters on here is the denial - 'small uptick', 'milder virus', fewer deaths' 'less in hospital' 'only affecting the young' - seems only a few weeks ago we heard it all before here in Spain.....then the time lag kicked in - more deaths, more in hospital, care home outbreaks......
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    HYUFD said:

    We must look like total imbeciles to the rest of the world right now. Good grief.

    A world which has recently elected populists from Brazil to Mexico, Poland to the USA, India to the Philippines to South Africa and Greece?
    It's not a race to the bottom.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    edited September 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    Would be really interested to see maps from the following gamblers:

    @kinabalu

    @Pulpstar

    @Richard_Nabavi

    @Alistair

    @Casino_Royale

    @MaxPB

    Whenever I see state level polling in the US, I'm reminded of the constituency level polling by Lord Ashcroft for the 2015 UK General Election.

    It gave the LibDems an enormous amount of enthusiasm - ignore, they would say - the national polling showing us in single figures, at a constituency level we've got the votes where it counts.

    Those local polls led to some thinking the LibDems would end up with 20 or more seats rather than... oohhh... 8.

    In 2016, the state level polls were dreadful. Wisconsin, on the RCP averages, was a Clinton lead of 6.5% on the eve of the election.

    These state level poll leads gave the Clinton campaign an unwarranted sense of security.

    The national polls though, showed a sharply narrowing race. Again, using the RCP numbers Clinton's lead went from five points mid October to under two points on November 3.

    If you looked at the National polls, you would have seen that the race was tightening dramatically.

    I expect that Trump will eat into the share of DKs between now and the election. But if Biden ends up getting his current polling average (and I can't find any candidate that did not exceed their early September average in November), then it will be extremely hard for Trump to win.

    The Nate Cohen / 538 numbers say that if it's a 2-3 point lead for Biden, then it's 50/50 whether it's Trump or Biden.

    That means for this race to be genuinely 50/50, that Trump has to take a Biden lead of 7.8 points in the latest 538 poll and bring it down by five and a half points.

    Possible for sure. But far from likely.
    Florida, Ohio, NC, Iowa, Arizona polls were pretty accurate in 2016, only really the Upper Midwest and Pennsylvania polls were wrong but Trafalgar group did better there
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    There was a time when International Treaties were entirely a matter for the Royal Prerogative and didn't require any legislative consent on the part of Parliament. That idea was abandoned a long time ago as it was felt that secret (or public) treaties not written into UK domestic law was perhaps not a sound basis for convincing other countries that we would honour our commitments. Well now that Parliament is potentially on the verge of showing itself willing (if whipped successfully by the Govt) to not only overturn agreements signed with the support of previous Parliaments and Governments, but actually overturn an agreement they themselves had supported enthusiastically!

    It could be noted that Treaties are still signed under the Royal Prerogative, not under the authority of Parliament. When the Queen is asked to sign this act into statute she will be effectively be breaking her personal commitment to other countries. For the first time ever. Probably not the way she wanted to go out.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002

    And the big plan is to sign a new trade deal negotiated in the next few weeks? A government can't long campaign against itself.

    My Oven Ready deal was undercooked...

    Genius.
  • I do think that the Tories are underplaying the possibility that delivering a No Deal on the back of their decision to renege on an international treaty they told the electorate was a triumph and the precursor to a great FTA with the EU may not prove to be immensely popular.

    The rock and hard place Johnson sits between is this. How does he find the votes to put a deal with the EU into law?

    We can assume that, in most cases, the Opposition will find fault with the specifics of the deal and vote against. In the case that the Opposition decide that the deal is worthy of support it is likely that this will trigger a challenge to Johnson's leadership - on the basis that he must have surrendered to Brussels to win the support of Remainers.

    The ERG are likely to view any meaningful compromise with the EU as surrender, to which they would prefer No Deal.

    The only way to win ERG support for a deal is to present it, at the last minute, as a victory over the EU and the Remainers. They have to be convinced that Johnson was not at all afraid of No Deal, and did not compromise in order to avoid it.

    It's not the EU that Johnson has to convince with the No Deal rhetoric, to scare them into submission, it's the ERG who need to be convinced that the EU were cowed.

    I'm not sure that the trick will work a second time. The ERG may drive us off the No Deal cliff even if Johnson doesn't want to.

    Having given the ERG the draft of this bill it will be impossible for Johnson to row back from it. Today is one of the most significant days in modern British history. Our explicit rejection of international law is truly historic.
    As I understand it the relevant sections only come into play if there isn't a deal, so the Bill could become law, and if the bluster works and wins ERG votes for the trade deal then it's of less immediate consequence.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    As Starmer put it weeks ago - you are the Prime Minister. You are in charge. Shagger seems to think that because SKS is asking questions that it must all be his fault somehow.

    He does look ill though. Lovely ladies of the court will be safe from his "I I knocked you up twice and lied to my wife about it" advances. A man of trust.

    He's not THAT ill is he?
    Not ill enough alas.
  • Phil said:

    Stocky said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC reporting widespread concern on the Tory backbenches

    It only needs 40 MPs to reject it, a majority of 80 can disappear quite easily as they saw with Huawei.

    It won't happen, not a chance. If the bill does not pass Johnson will have to resign. If you are going to announce to the world that your government no longer believes in international law and then you cannot deliver on that, you are finished. Tory MPs will understand that and put their party first. It's like the GOP with Trump. The Rubicon will be crossed.

    In all this fury, might I tentativelly point out that the EU are not squeaky clean. I think the UK thought it had a last resort in the form of a Canada deal, then this ...

    https://www.euronews.com/2020/02/19/uk-blasts-eu-s-barnier-for-rejecting-post-brexit-canada-style-trade-deal

    Is this the point that relationships soured beyond repair?
    As far as I can tell, the only "promise" of a Canada-style deal that the EU ever made was a Canadian flag icon on a powerpoint presentation. It seems the UK government has put an awful lot of weight on a powerpoint slide that someone put together to demonstrate a hierarchy of plausible possible deals & the red lines that would have to be crossed in order to get them.

    The idea that a single powerpoint slide ever counted as some kind of guarantee that the UK could pick and choose from the list of deals on that slide according to its choice of redlines seems something of a stretch.
    and @Philip_Thompson continues to whine like a child and throw his toys out of the pram every day that the EU won’t give us the same deal as Canada. It’s really quite amusing.
    LOL I'm not whining, I'm smiling. I literally just said how "delighted" I am and you think that's a whine? Do I need to accompany every post with a smiley face to show you my emotions? 😁

    I am in a very good mood right now about how things are proceeding. This is what I have said for YEARS the Government to do on this site. Fantastic! Well done. :grin:

    The whining seems to be people unhappy about "the rule of law" when if Parliament votes for this Act to go through, then this Act will be the law. No ifs, no buts.
    I’ve already explained that “the rule of law” is not what you think it is - and yet you completely ignored it.

    But regardless, you have been whining every day about the EU not giving us exactly what you want. I expect you to continue to do so.
    "The rule of law" is that Parliament sets the law and we vote for MPs to set it how we want it setting.

    We don't vote for foreign governments. That is why international law is subordinate to domestic law.

    Ultimately, the rule of law is what the government says it is. What makes you confident that a government which explicitly rejects international law - and seeks to emasculate the judiciary while reducing the power of Parliament to scrutinise its actions - believes in free and fair elections?
    Nothing.

    That is why we need eternal vigilance.

    Empty words.

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