There are already no import tariffs on foreign cars into Japan.
The British "premium" brands are never going to sell more than tiny numbers in Japan because they are simply too big for most Japanese roads and garages (3 Series come with different door handles in Japan to make them 20mm narrower) and they won't invest the money to provide the sort of dealership experience expected in Japan.
Plenty of Jap-spec S-classes and G-Wagens end up in the sandpit, so the space issue can't be too bad for the purchasers of premium cars. Weirdly, they're left hand drive too! I agree it's probably more of a problem at the 3-series level, where the average Japanese middle-class garage is too small. No European or American manufacturers make the JDM kai cars that make up the majority of Japanese sales.
Yeah, I may have led a sheltered life but I don't think many people here have garages? Generally just a parking space, and some twats drive humvees around the place, so I don't think it's the width that's stopping most people. Mrs In Tokyo looked at getting a Land Rover but it was mainly the price that put her off. (Maybe also me telling her you shouldn't trust something built by British people).
PS Kei cars are pretty great and much cheaper to run but I don't think they're a majority. I guess the spec is basically a non-tariff barrier. I have a Copen which is a totally awesome car but it's also slightly ridiculous to have a 0.6 litre engine (to pass the kei regulations) then put a turbo in it. When they used to sell the previous model in Britain they put in like 1.3 litre or something less outrageously teensy.
On topic - a bad performance at PMQs does not matter much, and definitely doesn't move the needle on Boris making it to 2024.
Wishful thinking from Mr. Smithson I suspect.
Boris has a lead in polls, a massive majority and is about to claim credit for an economic recovery which was both inevitable and yet somehow not foreseen by much of the media.
No European or American manufacturers make the JDM kai cars that make up the majority of Japanese sales.
Smart made a kei car model in France for Japan. I think they sold two.
Somebody once told me that a Caterham Seven is technically a kei car too but the person who told me owns a Seven so he is obviously brain damaged and can be ignored.
Doesn't it have to have a 600cc engine to be a kei car? Maybe you can get a kit Seven and put a bike engine in it, it's probably small enough to qualify, if a rather mad choice!
Seven 160 comes with an IL3 600cc Suzuki motor from a kei.
- Minimum wage, which disincentivises low-skilled from upskilling themselves
This is a remarkable comment. I mean, if the minimum wage was set a level that say 50% of the population were on it and the lowest skilled/paid had no realistic prospect of ever obtaining a job that was higher paid then I could see the argument. But I know of no companies that have a minimum wage job and then the next job up also at minimum wage - it doesn't work, no one would want the next job up. Instead, pay rises a bit in the next job up to differentiate from the lowest paid job. There's still and incentive to progress and the worst off get something approaching a living wage.
Do you think people have to actually be starving to want to progress (ignoring that if there was no minimum wage we'd probably just have higher benefits to make up the difference). I'd rather employers pay than the state.
I very much approve of the NMW and think the current levels are about right.
But the examples do exist where the gaps between zero responsibility and significant responsibility is less than £1 per hour. An example would be a mini supermarket duty manager and shelf stacker. Little chance of further promotion and a small pay gap makes shelf stacker the better job.
The issues solved by NMW far outweigh the issues around this though.
Funnily enough, I have experience of that scenario - as an 6th form student I had a Saturday job at a small Co-Op. Sunday duty manager job was similar to how you described, barely above shop floor pay. No one wanted to do it, so the real store manager (not duty manager, the person in charge of the shop overall/all decisions in shop) fiddled the books so we put down extra hours and got effectively paid 1.5 times the shop floor pay. Either the pay gap, even if small, is incentive enough or the employer has to find a way to produce the incentive - they need managers, up the pay.
Obviously there comes a point at which some of these stores become non-viable, in theory. But then you look at the Scandinavian countries, which still manage to have coffee shops (with very expensive coffee because the workers get paid more).
The opposite of this is to minimise the number of hours paid for with minimum wage jobs. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing as long as total employment holds up.
The real reason for higher minimum wages however is that governments can outsource their social security obligations to employers. Landing employers with this charge was one of Johnson's big claims at the last election (he didn't quite put it that way ... lol)
I have a similar anecdote with car rental. Car rental agent is an attractive minimum wage job if you are a people person. You deal with an interesting product and interact with customers in a much more engaging way than, say, in a call centre. Car rental manager is a shitty job. You have to deal with staffing and turn up if you can't get someone for a shift; you have to face angry customers when something goes wrong and deal with them crashing the cars and so on. Most of your additional pay is the form of bonus, which depends on your staff selling enough upgrades. So people come in as counter clerks, enjoy it and do a good job, get promoted to manager and leave within six months.
On the car rental manager issue, I take the point, but what's the solution? 1. Raise manager pay? Seems to me that a more motivated manager retained for longer would have some additional value, but maybe I'm wrong. 2. Reduce minimum wage so agents get paid less, increasing the gap? Manager is still a shitty job at shitty pay. Unless the people who leave within 6 months are going back to being car agents/minimum wage elsewhere, they'll still leave. 3. Keep status quo? Maybe that works for the rental companies. If so, fine for them.
Presumably option 3 does work for the rental companies, or they'd pay managers better to keep them longer. So if you reduce minimum wage (option 2) what makes you think that rental manager pay would not also drop down to be the same amount above rental agent that it is now?
On the point about outsourcing social security obligations - why should governments subsidise businesses? Or, to put it another way, why should companies that pay more subsidise, through taxes, companies that pay less?
I am trying to find an equivalent to the infection survey that ONS is running for England & Wales, for Scotland. Anyone got a link?
Case numbers (the reported ones) are misleading for England and Wales - where the infection rate in the population in general is either stable or in a slight decline.
Actually whilst I am mostly being snarky that tracking data if you follow the link is REALLY interesting.
On July 20th the national polling average was approx a 9 point lead, the best Biden has had since getting the nom and mostly based on Trump's polling being at his nadir. However in Morning Consult Wisconsin data on the 20th of July the gap was at it's smallest 2 points with Trump at his highest polling in the state, and based on a consistent climb over the preceding 10 days.
That is hugely important. There is a fundamental assumption built into most analysis that there is some form of universal swing even if it is dampened/enhanced across the states.
If there is counter-national swing then that chucks it all out of the window,
Yes, there's likely to be swings in many different directions in different States. For example a focus on law and order will see certain states move to Trump and others to Biden, ditto if the economy or virus is the main focus of the short campaign.
The danger for those of us betting, is that the national polls don't pick up the nuances of the swings in the key states. We know Biden is piling up votes in California, even more so than Hilary did, but he only needs a 1% swing in the Mid West to take a number of states there.
Traditionally, state-level polling has been rubbish in the USA, with key demographics missed and political activists over-represented in online samples.
There's also an ongoing issue with spam phone calls and political robocalls in the US, most people won't pick up the phone to an unknown number and those that do are unrepresentative of the population.
This is true but only to an extent. Nate Silver has done some analysis showing a 5 popular point lead would mean near-certain victory for Biden. If the lead goes down to 2-3 points then it's a tossup.
It's important to remember that Trump's victory in 2016 was a bit of a fluke and came down to having votes in *exactly* the right places. No reason to believe he will be as lucky this time.
I do agree with you though that the state level polling is often rubbish - some of the sample sizes are laughably small (e.g. the Monmouth poll for PA had 400 respondents!). BUt even in 2016 the national level polling was pretty good.
Grocery Industry Brexit Webinar update from the IGD Chief Economist: 1. Trade talks are not going well. 16th October's EU Council meeting is the absolute drop dead date for a deal, and our objectives remain mutually incompatible and neither is compromising enough to get a deal. 2. The economic shock will now happen regardless, obviously far worse with no deal. An asymmetrical impact will hit blue collar / manufacturing very hard 3. Government have a thing delightfully called BOM - Border Operating Model. A significant number of people through the supply chain will need to spend a lot of time managing the process. Cost in time plus cost of customs declarations, inspection costs etc etc 4. Three phases of BOM changes. Food groceries high risk items on a number of measures so impacted hard from day 1. 5. A lot of EU imported food comes on EU vehicles - will become very uncertain if economically viable for all of them. Currently mixed loads and backhaul - very difficult with new paperwork and checks 6. Vehicles and drivers will need a "Kent Access Permit" having uploaded everything via the app on the new Goods Vehicle Movement Service (which doesn't exist) - the driver, not the company, will be fined £000s for not having a Kent Access Permit or having the details wrong.
It’s bound to happen to some extent, there was talk of shutting down other parts of the economy to balance the increases, who’s going to shut the pubs and tell people to work from home.
Actually whilst I am mostly being snarky that tracking data if you follow the link is REALLY interesting.
On July 20th the national polling average was approx a 9 point lead, the best Biden has had since getting the nom and mostly based on Trump's polling being at his nadir. However in Morning Consult Wisconsin data on the 20th of July the gap was at it's smallest 2 points with Trump at his highest polling in the state, and based on a consistent climb over the preceding 10 days.
That is hugely important. There is a fundamental assumption built into most analysis that there is some form of universal swing even if it is dampened/enhanced across the states.
If there is counter-national swing then that chucks it all out of the window,
Yes, there's likely to be swings in many different directions in different States. For example a focus on law and order will see certain states move to Trump and others to Biden, ditto if the economy or virus is the main focus of the short campaign.
The danger for those of us betting, is that the national polls don't pick up the nuances of the swings in the key states. We know Biden is piling up votes in California, even more so than Hilary did, but he only needs a 1% swing in the Mid West to take a number of states there.
Traditionally, state-level polling has been rubbish in the USA, with key demographics missed and political activists over-represented in online samples.
There's also an ongoing issue with spam phone calls and political robocalls in the US, most people won't pick up the phone to an unknown number and those that do are unrepresentative of the population.
This is true but only to an extent. Nate Silver has done some analysis showing a 5 popular point lead would mean near-certain victory for Biden. If the lead goes down to 2-3 points then it's a tossup.
It's important to remember that Trump's victory in 2016 was a bit of a fluke and came down to having votes in *exactly* the right places. No reason to believe he will be as lucky this time.
I do agree with you though that the state level polling is often rubbish - some of the sample sizes are laughably small (e.g. the Monmouth poll for PA had 400 respondents!). BUt even in 2016 the national level polling was pretty good.
Many US polls have small sample sizes and individually they're less rigourous than ours. That's why the polling average is so key. One interesting point is that Nate's model has AZ as Biden's least probable current likely gain. With the consistently good polls emerging from there it could head back in the snake.
On the car rental manager issue, I take the point, but what's the solution? 1. Raise manager pay? Seems to me that a more motivated manager retained for longer would have some additional value, but maybe I'm wrong. 2. Reduce minimum wage so agents get paid less, increasing the gap? Manager is still a shitty job at shitty pay. Unless the people who leave within 6 months are going back to being car agents/minimum wage elsewhere, they'll still leave. 3. Keep status quo? Maybe that works for the rental companies. If so, fine for them.
Presumably option 3 does work for the rental companies, or they'd pay managers better to keep them longer. So if you reduce minimum wage (option 2) what makes you think that rental manager pay would not also drop down to be the same amount above rental agent that it is now?
On the point about outsourcing social security obligations - why should governments subsidise businesses? Or, to put it another way, why should companies that pay more subsidise, through taxes, companies that pay less?
This is a valid point, but one we can turn around. Why should it be the responsibility of employers to ensure people have enough to live on, providing they pay the market rate for the job? That kind of social security is rightly the responsibility of governments. The fact is, governments will happily up minimum wage because they can sell it as the government delivering for the people, while not having to pay for any of it.
On car rental management, I think it's a mixture of (1) and (3) and mainly that managers' basic pay needs to be increased so that they are no longer dependent on bonus for upgrades that they don't directly control. The agent gets a smaller bonus, but what if they don't do the upsell? The manager still needs that agent to be at the counter.
As I have said almost from the start Locking down is easy, re-opening is hard. I thought it recklessly fool hardy going for full School reopening in August. I would have much preferred blended learning to begin with to see if any CV-19 clusters swept through a class before reopenig full after the mid-term break.
Going for full re-opening straight away seems like a huge gamble and goes completely counter to the "Over Cautious Sturgeon" narrative.
- Minimum wage, which disincentivises low-skilled from upskilling themselves
This is a remarkable comment. I mean, if the minimum wage was set a level that say 50% of the population were on it and the lowest skilled/paid had no realistic prospect of ever obtaining a job that was higher paid then I could see the argument. But I know of no companies that have a minimum wage job and then the next job up also at minimum wage - it doesn't work, no one would want the next job up. Instead, pay rises a bit in the next job up to differentiate from the lowest paid job. There's still and incentive to progress and the worst off get something approaching a living wage.
Do you think people have to actually be starving to want to progress (ignoring that if there was no minimum wage we'd probably just have higher benefits to make up the difference). I'd rather employers pay than the state.
I very much approve of the NMW and think the current levels are about right.
But the examples do exist where the gaps between zero responsibility and significant responsibility is less than £1 per hour. An example would be a mini supermarket duty manager and shelf stacker. Little chance of further promotion and a small pay gap makes shelf stacker the better job.
The issues solved by NMW far outweigh the issues around this though.
Funnily enough, I have experience of that scenario - as an 6th form student I had a Saturday job at a small Co-Op. Sunday duty manager job was similar to how you described, barely above shop floor pay. No one wanted to do it, so the real store manager (not duty manager, the person in charge of the shop overall/all decisions in shop) fiddled the books so we put down extra hours and got effectively paid 1.5 times the shop floor pay. Either the pay gap, even if small, is incentive enough or the employer has to find a way to produce the incentive - they need managers, up the pay.
Obviously there comes a point at which some of these stores become non-viable, in theory. But then you look at the Scandinavian countries, which still manage to have coffee shops (with very expensive coffee because the workers get paid more).
The opposite of this is to minimise the number of hours paid for with minimum wage jobs. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing as long as total employment holds up.
The real reason for higher minimum wages however is that governments can outsource their social security obligations to employers. Landing employers with this charge was one of Johnson's big claims at the last election (he didn't quite put it that way ... lol)
I have a similar anecdote with car rental. Car rental agent is an attractive minimum wage job if you are a people person. You deal with an interesting product and interact with customers in a much more engaging way than, say, in a call centre. Car rental manager is a shitty job. You have to deal with staffing and turn up if you can't get someone for a shift; you have to face angry customers when something goes wrong and deal with them crashing the cars and so on. Most of your additional pay is the form of bonus, which depends on your staff selling enough upgrades. So people come in as counter clerks, enjoy it and do a good job, get promoted to manager and leave within six months.
On the car rental manager issue, I take the point, but what's the solution? 1. Raise manager pay? Seems to me that a more motivated manager retained for longer would have some additional value, but maybe I'm wrong. 2. Reduce minimum wage so agents get paid less, increasing the gap? Manager is still a shitty job at shitty pay. Unless the people who leave within 6 months are going back to being car agents/minimum wage elsewhere, they'll still leave. 3. Keep status quo? Maybe that works for the rental companies. If so, fine for them.
Presumably option 3 does work for the rental companies, or they'd pay managers better to keep them longer. So if you reduce minimum wage (option 2) what makes you think that rental manager pay would not also drop down to be the same amount above rental agent that it is now?
On the point about outsourcing social security obligations - why should governments subsidise businesses? Or, to put it another way, why should companies that pay more subsidise, through taxes, companies that pay less?
Manager of a car rental outlet is a really sh!tty job. You’re paid mostly on commission, for the upgrades no-one wants and finding ‘damage’ on returns. Most of the big chains work on a franchise model, so your boss is a local franchisee and not the large multinational company whose name is on the door.
On topic - a bad performance at PMQs does not matter much, and definitely doesn't move the needle on Boris making it to 2024.
Wishful thinking from Mr. Smithson I suspect.
Boris has a lead in polls, a massive majority and is about to claim credit for an economic recovery which was both inevitable and yet somehow not foreseen by much of the media.
Boris doesn't have a lead in the "polls". He is 22 points behind in the approval ratings
Actually whilst I am mostly being snarky that tracking data if you follow the link is REALLY interesting.
On July 20th the national polling average was approx a 9 point lead, the best Biden has had since getting the nom and mostly based on Trump's polling being at his nadir. However in Morning Consult Wisconsin data on the 20th of July the gap was at it's smallest 2 points with Trump at his highest polling in the state, and based on a consistent climb over the preceding 10 days.
That is hugely important. There is a fundamental assumption built into most analysis that there is some form of universal swing even if it is dampened/enhanced across the states.
If there is counter-national swing then that chucks it all out of the window,
Yes, there's likely to be swings in many different directions in different States. For example a focus on law and order will see certain states move to Trump and others to Biden, ditto if the economy or virus is the main focus of the short campaign.
The danger for those of us betting, is that the national polls don't pick up the nuances of the swings in the key states. We know Biden is piling up votes in California, even more so than Hilary did, but he only needs a 1% swing in the Mid West to take a number of states there.
Traditionally, state-level polling has been rubbish in the USA, with key demographics missed and political activists over-represented in online samples.
There's also an ongoing issue with spam phone calls and political robocalls in the US, most people won't pick up the phone to an unknown number and those that do are unrepresentative of the population.
This is true but only to an extent. Nate Silver has done some analysis showing a 5 popular point lead would mean near-certain victory for Biden. If the lead goes down to 2-3 points then it's a tossup.
It's important to remember that Trump's victory in 2016 was a bit of a fluke and came down to having votes in *exactly* the right places. No reason to believe he will be as lucky this time.
I do agree with you though that the state level polling is often rubbish - some of the sample sizes are laughably small (e.g. the Monmouth poll for PA had 400 respondents!). BUt even in 2016 the national level polling was pretty good.
Yup, the thing is that the votes have to show up *somewhere*. If it's cities... well, WI and PA also have cities. If Biden is getting killed in the mid-West despite having a big national lead then he's probably doing OK in Florida and Arizona, and if he just gains those two then he wins.
As I have said almost from the start Locking down is easy, re-opening is hard. I thought it recklessly fool hardy going for full School reopening in August. I would have much preferred blended learning to begin with to see if any CV-19 clusters swept through a class before reopenig full after the mid-term break.
Going for full re-opening straight away seems like a huge gamble and goes completely counter to the "Over Cautious Sturgeon" narrative.
It will be no different in England in terms of infection growth.
On topic - a bad performance at PMQs does not matter much, and definitely doesn't move the needle on Boris making it to 2024.
Wishful thinking from Mr. Smithson I suspect.
Boris has a lead in polls, a massive majority and is about to claim credit for an economic recovery which was both inevitable and yet somehow not foreseen by much of the media.
Boris doesn't have a lead in the "polls". He is 22 points behind in the approval ratings
Boris actual approval on today's poll is 42% v 36% for Starmer
I am trying to find an equivalent to the infection survey that ONS is running for England & Wales, for Scotland. Anyone got a link?
Case numbers (the reported ones) are misleading for England and Wales - where the infection rate in the population in general is either stable or in a slight decline.
There was a public health "expert" from a university on the radio this morning talking about problems with testing, and one of her complaints was that "we need to use testing to estimate the prevalence in the population" or words to that effect. She appeared to be unaware that the ONS is doing just that. This incorrect criticism of the goverment was not corrected by the interviewer, who I'm fairly sure hadn't a clue what she was talking about. The whole "news" item was a waste of time and ultimately misleading.
I think if we had a US style vote tomorrow it'd be President Keir with a Tory lower house. Probably NOM in an upper house given how soft the Tory majority was on a regional basis.
Grocery Industry Brexit Webinar update: 7. NI Protocol. All digital admin, all on NI side. EU tariffs payable to ship intra-UK on goods "at risk" of onward shipping into ROI - food groceries almost certain to be covered. Significant risk to viability of current GB/NI logistics model 8. Skilled workers - very unlikely that most of the EU people employed in the industry would be allowed in as won't earn enough points 9. Business timetable expected to be far tighter than the government's timetable - late issue of guidance (as done repeatedly over schools / Covid) will be very bad for business 10. UK Labour market weak and expected to worsen. Covid significantly reduces the UK's ability to absorb Brexit costs even if a deal is produced. OBR forecasted 12% unemployment, OECD 14% - so people won't be able to absorb rising prices. Wage growth has gone negative. However very low inflation has helped, and was heavily driven by fuel savings caused by lockdown and changes to working practices. 11. Retail demand has been delivered through explosive growth in high cost to serve online. Sales turnover delivers less profit than previously.
The next election is due on 2nd May 2024 unless the FTPA is replaced.That is 3 years and 8 months ahead - so we may be as close to Polling Day as the beginning of January 2017.
I am trying to find an equivalent to the infection survey that ONS is running for England & Wales, for Scotland. Anyone got a link?
Case numbers (the reported ones) are misleading for England and Wales - where the infection rate in the population in general is either stable or in a slight decline.
There was a public health "expert" from a university on the radio this morning talking about problems with testing, and one of her complaints was that "we need to use testing to estimate the prevalence in the population" or words to that effect. She appeared to be unaware that the ONS is doing just that. This incorrect criticism of the goverment was not corrected by the interviewer, who I'm fairly sure hadn't a clue what she was talking about. The whole "news" item was a waste of time and ultimately misleading.
Don't forget that even journalists were unaware of the existence of the ONS early on in the outbreak.
The next election is due on 2nd May 2024 unless the FTPA is replaced.That is 3 years and 8 months ahead - so we may be as close to Polling Day as the beginning of January 2017.
I think it's very unlikely the FTPA won't be replaced, especially after what Johnson went through before the election.
Grocery Industry Brexit Webinar update: 7. NI Protocol. All digital admin, all on NI side. EU tariffs payable to ship intra-UK on goods "at risk" of onward shipping into ROI - food groceries almost certain to be covered. Significant risk to viability of current GB/NI logistics model 8. Skilled workers - very unlikely that most of the EU people employed in the industry would be allowed in as won't earn enough points 9. Business timetable expected to be far tighter than the government's timetable - late issue of guidance (as done repeatedly over schools / Covid) will be very bad for business 10. UK Labour market weak and expected to worsen. Covid significantly reduces the UK's ability to absorb Brexit costs even if a deal is produced. OBR forecasted 12% unemployment, OECD 14% - so people won't be able to absorb rising prices. Wage growth has gone negative. However very low inflation has helped, and was heavily driven by fuel savings caused by lockdown and changes to working practices. 11. Retail demand has been delivered through explosive growth in high cost to serve online. Sales turnover delivers less profit than previously.
More to follow
Interesting points. Particularly point 10. Savings in transport costs due to WFH can be recycled into additional Brexit costs.
So SKS was happy with a 80 seat tory majority and a potential hard Brexit?. I think SKS thought he could prevent Brexit. He thought that he could go against a democratic vote. It did not take a rocket scientist to realise the resentment that was building up. SKS was fuelled by a compliant media which loved hearing his views on why Brexit was bad, while all the time people were shouting at the TV with anger that their vote to leave was not being respected. The Tories were completely split, if he had agreed to Mays deal the tories would have split in two. Boris would not be PM. As I said earlier it was the worst piece of political judgement in decades, all fueled by his ego and blinkered view.
The Tories did split.
They hoofed out the 21 with a modicum of integrity who knew Brexit will be a disaster, and all the rest knuckled under to serve the Glorious Rentier Reich.
Principles be damned, stay in power, and faces down in the trough.
It is what the Tory party does. For the rest of our lives...
I am trying to find an equivalent to the infection survey that ONS is running for England & Wales, for Scotland. Anyone got a link?
Case numbers (the reported ones) are misleading for England and Wales - where the infection rate in the population in general is either stable or in a slight decline.
There was a public health "expert" from a university on the radio this morning talking about problems with testing, and one of her complaints was that "we need to use testing to estimate the prevalence in the population" or words to that effect. She appeared to be unaware that the ONS is doing just that. This incorrect criticism of the goverment was not corrected by the interviewer, who I'm fairly sure hadn't a clue what she was talking about. The whole "news" item was a waste of time and ultimately misleading.
I sent this following to my journalist friend (mentioned previously)
screen grab from ONS report.
She actually couldn't process it for a while. Until she read this
I am trying to find an equivalent to the infection survey that ONS is running for England & Wales, for Scotland. Anyone got a link?
Case numbers (the reported ones) are misleading for England and Wales - where the infection rate in the population in general is either stable or in a slight decline.
There was a public health "expert" from a university on the radio this morning talking about problems with testing, and one of her complaints was that "we need to use testing to estimate the prevalence in the population" or words to that effect. She appeared to be unaware that the ONS is doing just that. This incorrect criticism of the goverment was not corrected by the interviewer, who I'm fairly sure hadn't a clue what she was talking about. The whole "news" item was a waste of time and ultimately misleading.
Don't forget that even journalists were unaware of the existence of the ONS early on in the outbreak.
Ah yes all those questions about "why are you hiding the data?" When in most cases it was already published on ons.gov.uk before the briefings had taken place.
Johnson might go before the next election but it won't be voluntary. The party will have to remove him and they will not do this unless it becomes clear that he has become a liability rather than an asset electorally. Now if the British public has an iota of self-respect this fundamental shift in sentiment will happen. We will recover our sense of dignity and re-apply some standards regarding who gets to be our PM. At which point the polls will tell the Tory Party to act and they will act. It's the Tory Party. I rate this quite likely to occur before 2024 but less than a 50/50 chance. So Mike's bet for me needs decent odds to be value.
At the moment the Tories lead most polls and are tied at worst so Boris is going nowhere.
If however Labour build a clear poll lead, likely after a recession as furlough ends and following a WTO terms Brexit then Boris will be in danger.
Yet the Tories would still need to consider whether picking Sunak for instance and a softer Brexit and deal with the EU to win Remainers lost to Starmer Labour and the LDs will win more votes than Leavers who would go back to Farage and the Brexit Party
Yes - such would be the dilemma.
And it would be nice to see the Tories faced with a "lose lose" electoral choice for a change.
Grocery Industry Brexit Webinar update from the IGD Chief Economist: 1. Trade talks are not going well. 16th October's EU Council meeting is the absolute drop dead date for a deal, and our objectives remain mutually incompatible and neither is compromising enough to get a deal. 2. The economic shock will now happen regardless, obviously far worse with no deal. An asymmetrical impact will hit blue collar / manufacturing very hard 3. Government have a thing delightfully called BOM - Border Operating Model. A significant number of people through the supply chain will need to spend a lot of time managing the process. Cost in time plus cost of customs declarations, inspection costs etc etc 4. Three phases of BOM changes. Food groceries high risk items on a number of measures so impacted hard from day 1. 5. A lot of EU imported food comes on EU vehicles - will become very uncertain if economically viable for all of them. Currently mixed loads and backhaul - very difficult with new paperwork and checks 6. Vehicles and drivers will need a "Kent Access Permit" having uploaded everything via the app on the new Goods Vehicle Movement Service (which doesn't exist) - the driver, not the company, will be fined £000s for not having a Kent Access Permit or having the details wrong.
More will follow
The EU was created to get rid of absurdities like a "Kent Access Permit". We will see a rapid proliferation of stupid crap like this on both sides of the border. Thanks Brexit.
Grocery Industry Brexit Webinar update: 12. Grocery market forecast - "bad" or "worse"... 3 year forecast only 13. Big growth in 2020 - share of stomach swing caused by the collapse of Food Service. Expect this will swing back in 2021. However, inflation is the driver of this - strip inflation out and its still negative overall 14. Hypermarkets/ Supermarkets very low single digit growth expected. Online 59% growth - higher cost to serve than bricks and mortar 15. Brexit increasingly rising as being of interest to the public (IGD have a large panel of consumers polled). Shopper financial confidence has recovered to -16% but shoppers increasingly concerned about spending money and the future impacts of Covid & Brexit. Concern growing about availability, ethical standards and quality - more likely to try and find local food sourcing.
On the car rental manager issue, I take the point, but what's the solution? 1. Raise manager pay? Seems to me that a more motivated manager retained for longer would have some additional value, but maybe I'm wrong. 2. Reduce minimum wage so agents get paid less, increasing the gap? Manager is still a shitty job at shitty pay. Unless the people who leave within 6 months are going back to being car agents/minimum wage elsewhere, they'll still leave. 3. Keep status quo? Maybe that works for the rental companies. If so, fine for them.
Presumably option 3 does work for the rental companies, or they'd pay managers better to keep them longer. So if you reduce minimum wage (option 2) what makes you think that rental manager pay would not also drop down to be the same amount above rental agent that it is now?
On the point about outsourcing social security obligations - why should governments subsidise businesses? Or, to put it another way, why should companies that pay more subsidise, through taxes, companies that pay less?
This is a valid point, but one we can turn around. Why should it be the responsibility of employers to ensure people have enough to live on, providing they pay the market rate for the job? That kind of social security is rightly the responsibility of governments. The fact is, governments will happily up minimum wage because they can sell it as the government delivering for the people, while not having to pay for any of it.
On car rental management, I think it's a mixture of (1) and (3) and mainly that managers' basic pay needs to be increased so that they are no longer dependent on bonus for upgrades that they don't directly control. The agent gets a smaller bonus, but what if they don't do the upsell? The manager still needs that agent to be at the counter.
I think the key question is why the market rate for semi-skilled labour in the UK is at or just above minimum wage? Why has there been stagnation in the wages of Western European workers over the last 20-30 years?
On topic - a bad performance at PMQs does not matter much, and definitely doesn't move the needle on Boris making it to 2024.
Wishful thinking from Mr. Smithson I suspect.
Boris has a lead in polls, a massive majority and is about to claim credit for an economic recovery which was both inevitable and yet somehow not foreseen by much of the media.
Boris doesn't have a lead in the "polls". He is 22 points behind in the approval ratings
Actually whilst I am mostly being snarky that tracking data if you follow the link is REALLY interesting.
On July 20th the national polling average was approx a 9 point lead, the best Biden has had since getting the nom and mostly based on Trump's polling being at his nadir. However in Morning Consult Wisconsin data on the 20th of July the gap was at it's smallest 2 points with Trump at his highest polling in the state, and based on a consistent climb over the preceding 10 days.
That is hugely important. There is a fundamental assumption built into most analysis that there is some form of universal swing even if it is dampened/enhanced across the states.
If there is counter-national swing then that chucks it all out of the window,
Yes, there's likely to be swings in many different directions in different States. For example a focus on law and order will see certain states move to Trump and others to Biden, ditto if the economy or virus is the main focus of the short campaign.
The danger for those of us betting, is that the national polls don't pick up the nuances of the swings in the key states. We know Biden is piling up votes in California, even more so than Hilary did, but he only needs a 1% swing in the Mid West to take a number of states there.
Traditionally, state-level polling has been rubbish in the USA, with key demographics missed and political activists over-represented in online samples.
There's also an ongoing issue with spam phone calls and political robocalls in the US, most people won't pick up the phone to an unknown number and those that do are unrepresentative of the population.
This is true but only to an extent. Nate Silver has done some analysis showing a 5 popular point lead would mean near-certain victory for Biden. If the lead goes down to 2-3 points then it's a tossup.
It's important to remember that Trump's victory in 2016 was a bit of a fluke and came down to having votes in *exactly* the right places. No reason to believe he will be as lucky this time.
I do agree with you though that the state level polling is often rubbish - some of the sample sizes are laughably small (e.g. the Monmouth poll for PA had 400 respondents!). BUt even in 2016 the national level polling was pretty good.
Actually whilst I am mostly being snarky that tracking data if you follow the link is REALLY interesting.
On July 20th the national polling average was approx a 9 point lead, the best Biden has had since getting the nom and mostly based on Trump's polling being at his nadir. However in Morning Consult Wisconsin data on the 20th of July the gap was at it's smallest 2 points with Trump at his highest polling in the state, and based on a consistent climb over the preceding 10 days.
That is hugely important. There is a fundamental assumption built into most analysis that there is some form of universal swing even if it is dampened/enhanced across the states.
If there is counter-national swing then that chucks it all out of the window,
Yes, there's likely to be swings in many different directions in different States. For example a focus on law and order will see certain states move to Trump and others to Biden, ditto if the economy or virus is the main focus of the short campaign.
The danger for those of us betting, is that the national polls don't pick up the nuances of the swings in the key states. We know Biden is piling up votes in California, even more so than Hilary did, but he only needs a 1% swing in the Mid West to take a number of states there.
Traditionally, state-level polling has been rubbish in the USA, with key demographics missed and political activists over-represented in online samples.
There's also an ongoing issue with spam phone calls and political robocalls in the US, most people won't pick up the phone to an unknown number and those that do are unrepresentative of the population.
This is true but only to an extent. Nate Silver has done some analysis showing a 5 popular point lead would mean near-certain victory for Biden. If the lead goes down to 2-3 points then it's a tossup.
It's important to remember that Trump's victory in 2016 was a bit of a fluke and came down to having votes in *exactly* the right places. No reason to believe he will be as lucky this time.
I do agree with you though that the state level polling is often rubbish - some of the sample sizes are laughably small (e.g. the Monmouth poll for PA had 400 respondents!). BUt even in 2016 the national level polling was pretty good.
Currently the average poll lead for Biden is 7.2%
99% chance of a Biden win? Where have I heard this number before...
Actually whilst I am mostly being snarky that tracking data if you follow the link is REALLY interesting.
On July 20th the national polling average was approx a 9 point lead, the best Biden has had since getting the nom and mostly based on Trump's polling being at his nadir. However in Morning Consult Wisconsin data on the 20th of July the gap was at it's smallest 2 points with Trump at his highest polling in the state, and based on a consistent climb over the preceding 10 days.
That is hugely important. There is a fundamental assumption built into most analysis that there is some form of universal swing even if it is dampened/enhanced across the states.
If there is counter-national swing then that chucks it all out of the window,
Yes, there's likely to be swings in many different directions in different States. For example a focus on law and order will see certain states move to Trump and others to Biden, ditto if the economy or virus is the main focus of the short campaign.
The danger for those of us betting, is that the national polls don't pick up the nuances of the swings in the key states. We know Biden is piling up votes in California, even more so than Hilary did, but he only needs a 1% swing in the Mid West to take a number of states there.
Traditionally, state-level polling has been rubbish in the USA, with key demographics missed and political activists over-represented in online samples.
There's also an ongoing issue with spam phone calls and political robocalls in the US, most people won't pick up the phone to an unknown number and those that do are unrepresentative of the population.
This is true but only to an extent. Nate Silver has done some analysis showing a 5 popular point lead would mean near-certain victory for Biden. If the lead goes down to 2-3 points then it's a tossup.
It's important to remember that Trump's victory in 2016 was a bit of a fluke and came down to having votes in *exactly* the right places. No reason to believe he will be as lucky this time.
I do agree with you though that the state level polling is often rubbish - some of the sample sizes are laughably small (e.g. the Monmouth poll for PA had 400 respondents!). BUt even in 2016 the national level polling was pretty good.
Currently the average poll lead for Biden is 7.2%
99% chance of a Biden win? Where have I heard this number before...
If the polls don't change absolutely. But if the polls change then that would change.
I can't think of any time recently the polls have been out by 7%.
Politicians really aren't thinking ahead on all sides of the house here when they try and encourage a return to the old normal. Post covid we will live in a very different world with different expectations in my view.
Take for example Sars, Mers, H1N1.....we as a country more or less ignored them as far as taking precautions.
Now however once over Covid I think the next virus to come along it will be a brave government that doesn't take preemptive precautionary measures in case its another Covid event.
Therefore trying to move to a model of life where it is less disruptive of things to do so seems sensible. Imagine if when covid struck we were already mostly working at home for those jobs that can. High streets had already rebalanced around this new normal.
It would be nice if our politicians used a little foresight as I am damn sure Covid won't be the last such event in most of our lifetimes
Which is, I think, a sensible summation of the situation.
Yes, and that does mention the 100,000 a day that I keep banging on about which you can very simply estimate from deaths and the IFR, so it could even be higher still.
I'm fairly confident that rapid testing (coming on stream soon) and greater surveillance should enable us to avoid a spike of anything like the scale that occured in the spring.
On the car rental manager issue, I take the point, but what's the solution? 1. Raise manager pay? Seems to me that a more motivated manager retained for longer would have some additional value, but maybe I'm wrong. 2. Reduce minimum wage so agents get paid less, increasing the gap? Manager is still a shitty job at shitty pay. Unless the people who leave within 6 months are going back to being car agents/minimum wage elsewhere, they'll still leave. 3. Keep status quo? Maybe that works for the rental companies. If so, fine for them.
Presumably option 3 does work for the rental companies, or they'd pay managers better to keep them longer. So if you reduce minimum wage (option 2) what makes you think that rental manager pay would not also drop down to be the same amount above rental agent that it is now?
On the point about outsourcing social security obligations - why should governments subsidise businesses? Or, to put it another way, why should companies that pay more subsidise, through taxes, companies that pay less?
This is a valid point, but one we can turn around. Why should it be the responsibility of employers to ensure people have enough to live on, providing they pay the market rate for the job? That kind of social security is rightly the responsibility of governments. The fact is, governments will happily up minimum wage because they can sell it as the government delivering for the people, while not having to pay for any of it.
On car rental management, I think it's a mixture of (1) and (3) and mainly that managers' basic pay needs to be increased so that they are no longer dependent on bonus for upgrades that they don't directly control. The agent gets a smaller bonus, but what if they don't do the upsell? The manager still needs that agent to be at the counter.
I think the key question is why the market rate for semi-skilled labour in the UK is at or just above minimum wage? Why has there been stagnation in the wages of Western European workers over the last 20-30 years?
Grocery Industry Brexit Webinar update: 7. NI Protocol. All digital admin, all on NI side. EU tariffs payable to ship intra-UK on goods "at risk" of onward shipping into ROI - food groceries almost certain to be covered. Significant risk to viability of current GB/NI logistics model 8. Skilled workers - very unlikely that most of the EU people employed in the industry would be allowed in as won't earn enough points 9. Business timetable expected to be far tighter than the government's timetable - late issue of guidance (as done repeatedly over schools / Covid) will be very bad for business 10. UK Labour market weak and expected to worsen. Covid significantly reduces the UK's ability to absorb Brexit costs even if a deal is produced. OBR forecasted 12% unemployment, OECD 14% - so people won't be able to absorb rising prices. Wage growth has gone negative. However very low inflation has helped, and was heavily driven by fuel savings caused by lockdown and changes to working practices. 11. Retail demand has been delivered through explosive growth in high cost to serve online. Sales turnover delivers less profit than previously.
More to follow
Sounds like whatever is the opposite of a "bonfire of red tape". Bound to increase costs and hit living standards.
Still, it will play well psychologically with many Leavers. They want a country that is very hard for people and things to get into. This makes it feel more special for natives.
The next election is due on 2nd May 2024 unless the FTPA is replaced.That is 3 years and 8 months ahead - so we may be as close to Polling Day as the beginning of January 2017.
I think it's very unlikely the FTPA won't be replaced, especially after what Johnson went through before the election.
On that basis can Johnson gift himself a hatful of extra years?
Politicians really aren't thinking ahead on all sides of the house here when they try and encourage a return to the old normal. Post covid we will live in a very different world with different expectations in my view.
Take for example Sars, Mers, H1N1.....we as a country more or less ignored them as far as taking precautions.
Now however once over Covid I think the next virus to come along it will be a brave government that doesn't take preemptive precautionary measures in case its another Covid event.
Therefore trying to move to a model of life where it is less disruptive of things to do so seems sensible. Imagine if when covid struck we were already mostly working at home for those jobs that can. High streets had already rebalanced around this new normal.
It would be nice if our politicians used a little foresight as I am damn sure Covid won't be the last such event in most of our lifetimes
I completely agree. Something politicians really need to consider is that COVID-19 is NOT the doomsday virus. Things could have been a lot worse. We need a much greater focus on public health.
So methodologies between pollsters must be different? Opinium still outlier
Mostly noise. Conservatives somewhere between 40% and 43%, Labour somewhere between 37% and 40%. Lead somewhere between 0 and 6%.
But the Boris Boys used to get excited about 20 % leads, then 10 % leads, now it's a 6 % lead.
Erosion. You can't see it day-to-day, but it destroys mountains. Sometimes, faster than you might think.
Reminds me of the run-up to the 2019 election.
One of the interesting unknowns is whether the dynamic is more like the 2017 election (where the closure of the Conservative lead during the campaign was brutal and kept going) or 2019 (where there was a bit of a closing of the gap, but it petered out.)
The deflation of the Covid Loyalty Bounce (the one that is NOTHING AT ALL to do with anyone visiting Durham, because that's not a story) left a Conservative lead of about 7%, with individual polls scattering higher or lower. Then nothing happened for a few months. There might have been another chip in the last few weeks; too early to tell for sure.
1. Now talking about how the ports will operate. Government suggesting a smart system will allow them to prioritise certain types of short life produce. 2. Export to EU from UK. Companies will need an EU address on the actual products - an EU office would be needed for legal / consumer queries. 3. Logistics. The need to have every type of product on a vehicle inspected and paperwork issued will be a "challenge" when full vehicles in both directions essential for the industry. One item on one pallet could delay the whole load (and thus down the line delays) and the DRIVER not the company is responsible for the paperwork and gets fined if they drive their truck into Kent without the paperwork correct on their Kent Access Permit. KAP essentially creates another internal UK border for goods vehicles! 4. Admin - how will this work? The Goods Vehicle Movement Service which will control things like the KAP doesn't currently exist. Yet will be responsible for groceries movement from 1st January. 5. Consumer confidence - are consumers likely to become more concerned the closer we get to the deadline? Yes - metrics already sharply rising and the issues discussed here not yet well known.|
And thats it. Sounds like fun times ahead. Or not - experts are all wrong anyway according to spaff stains like IDS
Actually whilst I am mostly being snarky that tracking data if you follow the link is REALLY interesting.
On July 20th the national polling average was approx a 9 point lead, the best Biden has had since getting the nom and mostly based on Trump's polling being at his nadir. However in Morning Consult Wisconsin data on the 20th of July the gap was at it's smallest 2 points with Trump at his highest polling in the state, and based on a consistent climb over the preceding 10 days.
That is hugely important. There is a fundamental assumption built into most analysis that there is some form of universal swing even if it is dampened/enhanced across the states.
If there is counter-national swing then that chucks it all out of the window,
Yes, there's likely to be swings in many different directions in different States. For example a focus on law and order will see certain states move to Trump and others to Biden, ditto if the economy or virus is the main focus of the short campaign.
The danger for those of us betting, is that the national polls don't pick up the nuances of the swings in the key states. We know Biden is piling up votes in California, even more so than Hilary did, but he only needs a 1% swing in the Mid West to take a number of states there.
Traditionally, state-level polling has been rubbish in the USA, with key demographics missed and political activists over-represented in online samples.
There's also an ongoing issue with spam phone calls and political robocalls in the US, most people won't pick up the phone to an unknown number and those that do are unrepresentative of the population.
This is true but only to an extent. Nate Silver has done some analysis showing a 5 popular point lead would mean near-certain victory for Biden. If the lead goes down to 2-3 points then it's a tossup.
It's important to remember that Trump's victory in 2016 was a bit of a fluke and came down to having votes in *exactly* the right places. No reason to believe he will be as lucky this time.
I do agree with you though that the state level polling is often rubbish - some of the sample sizes are laughably small (e.g. the Monmouth poll for PA had 400 respondents!). BUt even in 2016 the national level polling was pretty good.
Currently the average poll lead for Biden is 7.2%
I think he'll win the PV by 5 or 6 and the EC by between 100 and 150.
Which is, I think, a sensible summation of the situation.
Yes, and that does mention the 100,000 a day that I keep banging on about which you can very simply estimate from deaths and the IFR, so it could even be higher still.
I'm fairly confident that rapid testing (coming on stream soon) and greater surveillance should enable us to avoid a spike of anything like the scale that occured in the spring.
The most interesting number is the 2200 per day (England and Wales) - the current estimate.
Because the cases found by testing is steadily heading up. At some point, probably in the near future, we will see the cases getting close to the estimated infection level....
The next election is due on 2nd May 2024 unless the FTPA is replaced.That is 3 years and 8 months ahead - so we may be as close to Polling Day as the beginning of January 2017.
I think it's very unlikely the FTPA won't be replaced, especially after what Johnson went through before the election.
On that basis can Johnson gift himself a hatful of extra years?
If it's repealed without replacement, yes, the present parliament would sit indefinitely.
Grocery Industry Brexit Webinar update from the IGD Chief Economist: 1. Trade talks are not going well. 16th October's EU Council meeting is the absolute drop dead date for a deal, and our objectives remain mutually incompatible and neither is compromising enough to get a deal. 2. The economic shock will now happen regardless, obviously far worse with no deal. An asymmetrical impact will hit blue collar / manufacturing very hard 3. Government have a thing delightfully called BOM - Border Operating Model. A significant number of people through the supply chain will need to spend a lot of time managing the process. Cost in time plus cost of customs declarations, inspection costs etc etc 4. Three phases of BOM changes. Food groceries high risk items on a number of measures so impacted hard from day 1. 5. A lot of EU imported food comes on EU vehicles - will become very uncertain if economically viable for all of them. Currently mixed loads and backhaul - very difficult with new paperwork and checks 6. Vehicles and drivers will need a "Kent Access Permit" having uploaded everything via the app on the new Goods Vehicle Movement Service (which doesn't exist) - the driver, not the company, will be fined £000s for not having a Kent Access Permit or having the details wrong.
More will follow
The EU was created to get rid of absurdities like a "Kent Access Permit". We will see a rapid proliferation of stupid crap like this on both sides of the border. Thanks Brexit.
If Barnier wants to stop talking about fish before October, then there’s a chance of avoiding a lot of the paperwork.
On the car rental manager issue, I take the point, but what's the solution? 1. Raise manager pay? Seems to me that a more motivated manager retained for longer would have some additional value, but maybe I'm wrong. 2. Reduce minimum wage so agents get paid less, increasing the gap? Manager is still a shitty job at shitty pay. Unless the people who leave within 6 months are going back to being car agents/minimum wage elsewhere, they'll still leave. 3. Keep status quo? Maybe that works for the rental companies. If so, fine for them.
Presumably option 3 does work for the rental companies, or they'd pay managers better to keep them longer. So if you reduce minimum wage (option 2) what makes you think that rental manager pay would not also drop down to be the same amount above rental agent that it is now?
On the point about outsourcing social security obligations - why should governments subsidise businesses? Or, to put it another way, why should companies that pay more subsidise, through taxes, companies that pay less?
This is a valid point, but one we can turn around. Why should it be the responsibility of employers to ensure people have enough to live on, providing they pay the market rate for the job? That kind of social security is rightly the responsibility of governments. The fact is, governments will happily up minimum wage because they can sell it as the government delivering for the people, while not having to pay for any of it.
On car rental management, I think it's a mixture of (1) and (3) and mainly that managers' basic pay needs to be increased so that they are no longer dependent on bonus for upgrades that they don't directly control. The agent gets a smaller bonus, but what if they don't do the upsell? The manager still needs that agent to be at the counter.
I think the key question is why the market rate for semi-skilled labour in the UK is at or just above minimum wage? Why has there been stagnation in the wages of Western European workers over the last 20-30 years?
Grocery Industry Brexit Webinar update from the IGD Chief Economist: 1. Trade talks are not going well. 16th October's EU Council meeting is the absolute drop dead date for a deal, and our objectives remain mutually incompatible and neither is compromising enough to get a deal. 2. The economic shock will now happen regardless, obviously far worse with no deal. An asymmetrical impact will hit blue collar / manufacturing very hard 3. Government have a thing delightfully called BOM - Border Operating Model. A significant number of people through the supply chain will need to spend a lot of time managing the process. Cost in time plus cost of customs declarations, inspection costs etc etc 4. Three phases of BOM changes. Food groceries high risk items on a number of measures so impacted hard from day 1. 5. A lot of EU imported food comes on EU vehicles - will become very uncertain if economically viable for all of them. Currently mixed loads and backhaul - very difficult with new paperwork and checks 6. Vehicles and drivers will need a "Kent Access Permit" having uploaded everything via the app on the new Goods Vehicle Movement Service (which doesn't exist) - the driver, not the company, will be fined £000s for not having a Kent Access Permit or having the details wrong.
More will follow
The EU was created to get rid of absurdities like a "Kent Access Permit". We will see a rapid proliferation of stupid crap like this on both sides of the border. Thanks Brexit.
If Barnier wants to stop talking about fish before October, then there’s a chance of avoiding a lot of the paperwork.
Alternatively, if Johnson wants to stop talking about fish before October, then there’s a chance of avoiding a lot of the paperwork.
Grocery Industry Brexit Webinar update from the IGD Chief Economist: 1. Trade talks are not going well. 16th October's EU Council meeting is the absolute drop dead date for a deal, and our objectives remain mutually incompatible and neither is compromising enough to get a deal. 2. The economic shock will now happen regardless, obviously far worse with no deal. An asymmetrical impact will hit blue collar / manufacturing very hard 3. Government have a thing delightfully called BOM - Border Operating Model. A significant number of people through the supply chain will need to spend a lot of time managing the process. Cost in time plus cost of customs declarations, inspection costs etc etc 4. Three phases of BOM changes. Food groceries high risk items on a number of measures so impacted hard from day 1. 5. A lot of EU imported food comes on EU vehicles - will become very uncertain if economically viable for all of them. Currently mixed loads and backhaul - very difficult with new paperwork and checks 6. Vehicles and drivers will need a "Kent Access Permit" having uploaded everything via the app on the new Goods Vehicle Movement Service (which doesn't exist) - the driver, not the company, will be fined £000s for not having a Kent Access Permit or having the details wrong.
More will follow
The EU was created to get rid of absurdities like a "Kent Access Permit". We will see a rapid proliferation of stupid crap like this on both sides of the border. Thanks Brexit.
If Barnier wants to stop talking about fish before October, then there’s a chance of avoiding a lot of the paperwork.
The next election is due on 2nd May 2024 unless the FTPA is replaced.That is 3 years and 8 months ahead - so we may be as close to Polling Day as the beginning of January 2017.
I think it's very unlikely the FTPA won't be replaced, especially after what Johnson went through before the election.
On that basis can Johnson gift himself a hatful of extra years?
If it's repealed without replacement, yes, the present parliament would sit indefinitely.
With an 80 seat majority Johnson could hang on for twenty plus years. I don't think the outcry would be anything like as loud as one might expect.
Grocery Industry Brexit Webinar update from the IGD Chief Economist: 1. Trade talks are not going well. 16th October's EU Council meeting is the absolute drop dead date for a deal, and our objectives remain mutually incompatible and neither is compromising enough to get a deal. 2. The economic shock will now happen regardless, obviously far worse with no deal. An asymmetrical impact will hit blue collar / manufacturing very hard 3. Government have a thing delightfully called BOM - Border Operating Model. A significant number of people through the supply chain will need to spend a lot of time managing the process. Cost in time plus cost of customs declarations, inspection costs etc etc 4. Three phases of BOM changes. Food groceries high risk items on a number of measures so impacted hard from day 1. 5. A lot of EU imported food comes on EU vehicles - will become very uncertain if economically viable for all of them. Currently mixed loads and backhaul - very difficult with new paperwork and checks 6. Vehicles and drivers will need a "Kent Access Permit" having uploaded everything via the app on the new Goods Vehicle Movement Service (which doesn't exist) - the driver, not the company, will be fined £000s for not having a Kent Access Permit or having the details wrong.
More will follow
The EU was created to get rid of absurdities like a "Kent Access Permit". We will see a rapid proliferation of stupid crap like this on both sides of the border. Thanks Brexit.
If Barnier wants to stop talking about fish before October, then there’s a chance of avoiding a lot of the paperwork.
On the car rental manager issue, I take the point, but what's the solution? 1. Raise manager pay? Seems to me that a more motivated manager retained for longer would have some additional value, but maybe I'm wrong. 2. Reduce minimum wage so agents get paid less, increasing the gap? Manager is still a shitty job at shitty pay. Unless the people who leave within 6 months are going back to being car agents/minimum wage elsewhere, they'll still leave. 3. Keep status quo? Maybe that works for the rental companies. If so, fine for them.
Presumably option 3 does work for the rental companies, or they'd pay managers better to keep them longer. So if you reduce minimum wage (option 2) what makes you think that rental manager pay would not also drop down to be the same amount above rental agent that it is now?
On the point about outsourcing social security obligations - why should governments subsidise businesses? Or, to put it another way, why should companies that pay more subsidise, through taxes, companies that pay less?
This is a valid point, but one we can turn around. Why should it be the responsibility of employers to ensure people have enough to live on, providing they pay the market rate for the job? That kind of social security is rightly the responsibility of governments. The fact is, governments will happily up minimum wage because they can sell it as the government delivering for the people, while not having to pay for any of it.
On car rental management, I think it's a mixture of (1) and (3) and mainly that managers' basic pay needs to be increased so that they are no longer dependent on bonus for upgrades that they don't directly control. The agent gets a smaller bonus, but what if they don't do the upsell? The manager still needs that agent to be at the counter.
I think the key question is why the market rate for semi-skilled labour in the UK is at or just above minimum wage? Why has there been stagnation in the wages of Western European workers over the last 20-30 years?
That is a question that cannot be answered.
Piketty is having a crack at it.
No - the answer is BadThink. Therefore we have no answer.
1. Now talking about how the ports will operate. Government suggesting a smart system will allow them to prioritise certain types of short life produce. 2. Export to EU from UK. Companies will need an EU address on the actual products - an EU office would be needed for legal / consumer queries. 3. Logistics. The need to have every type of product on a vehicle inspected and paperwork issued will be a "challenge" when full vehicles in both directions essential for the industry. One item on one pallet could delay the whole load (and thus down the line delays) and the DRIVER not the company is responsible for the paperwork and gets fined if they drive their truck into Kent without the paperwork correct on their Kent Access Permit. KAP essentially creates another internal UK border for goods vehicles! 4. Admin - how will this work? The Goods Vehicle Movement Service which will control things like the KAP doesn't currently exist. Yet will be responsible for groceries movement from 1st January. 5. Consumer confidence - are consumers likely to become more concerned the closer we get to the deadline? Yes - metrics already sharply rising and the issues discussed here not yet well known.|
And thats it. Sounds like fun times ahead. Or not - experts are all wrong anyway according to spaff stains like IDS
I doubt it'll be the "next" one, though. Changing Portugal's quarantine status for a FIFTH time is likely to come tomorrow lunchtime, that's if they don't get pushed into delaying next year's exams or some other Scottish inspired policy reversal in the meantime.
Can I just say as someone back in an office that I'd like to completely dissociate myself from both the Gov'ts nonsense campaign and the Detol adverts.
Grocery Industry Brexit Webinar update from the IGD Chief Economist: 1. Trade talks are not going well. 16th October's EU Council meeting is the absolute drop dead date for a deal, and our objectives remain mutually incompatible and neither is compromising enough to get a deal. 2. The economic shock will now happen regardless, obviously far worse with no deal. An asymmetrical impact will hit blue collar / manufacturing very hard 3. Government have a thing delightfully called BOM - Border Operating Model. A significant number of people through the supply chain will need to spend a lot of time managing the process. Cost in time plus cost of customs declarations, inspection costs etc etc 4. Three phases of BOM changes. Food groceries high risk items on a number of measures so impacted hard from day 1. 5. A lot of EU imported food comes on EU vehicles - will become very uncertain if economically viable for all of them. Currently mixed loads and backhaul - very difficult with new paperwork and checks 6. Vehicles and drivers will need a "Kent Access Permit" having uploaded everything via the app on the new Goods Vehicle Movement Service (which doesn't exist) - the driver, not the company, will be fined £000s for not having a Kent Access Permit or having the details wrong.
More will follow
The EU was created to get rid of absurdities like a "Kent Access Permit". We will see a rapid proliferation of stupid crap like this on both sides of the border. Thanks Brexit.
If Barnier wants to stop talking about fish before October, then there’s a chance of avoiding a lot of the paperwork.
What makes the mind boggle is what the best case scenario looks like for this. Lets assume a miracle occurs when setting up the electronics for the Goods Vehicle Movement Service. Lets assume that HMRC manages to recruit and train the army of red tape officials. So that by 1st January the system actually exists and works. Yes I know that the collected industrial knowledge of government computer schemes, IT professionals and logistics professionals just wet themselves laughing, but assume the experts are wrong.
In this best case scenario we have a truck laden with 35 double stacked pallets. Every class of item with its own separate customs declaration. Every class of item with its own standards declaration. With the costs both in time to complete plus the actual cost of the actual declaration. Logistics works on full vehicles so a lot of mixed loads exists. Trucks will need to be loaded so that they aren't mixing pallets of different standards and so that the stuff that may need inspecting is easy to access. That adds complexity space requirements and costs to the logistics operators before you even load the truck.
Truck sets off, electronic permits obtained. Arrives at the port. Has its customs forms inspected. Has its standards forms inspected. Has the actual product visually inspected as appropriate. Crosses the border onto the boat / train. How long will this take vs now and how much does that time cost? And when the inevitable human / system error occurs? Truck ends up parked for everything open inspection. Driver gets fined £300 for his Kent Access Permit being in error. More delay. More cost.
All because of a political decision to leave the EEA and CU. Save money and cut red tape they said. The opposite in reality. As this government pretends it isn't a direct continuation of the previous 10 years of Tory government can we look forward to Johnson's successor announcing they are going to save British business by cutting through this mountain of EU red tape...?
What is this Government going to achieve, beyond leaving the EU, which was in January?
Highest death toll in Europe?
Worst economic response to Covid?
The UK had the worst economic response? I thought the various schemes were viewed quite highly.
The reason for the sharp GDP drop was that the U.K. furlough scheme was one of the most generous in the world. Means that the V-shaped recovery is much more likely in the U.K. than elsewhere where furlough has been replaced by redundancy.
1. Now talking about how the ports will operate. Government suggesting a smart system will allow them to prioritise certain types of short life produce. 2. Export to EU from UK. Companies will need an EU address on the actual products - an EU office would be needed for legal / consumer queries. 3. Logistics. The need to have every type of product on a vehicle inspected and paperwork issued will be a "challenge" when full vehicles in both directions essential for the industry. One item on one pallet could delay the whole load (and thus down the line delays) and the DRIVER not the company is responsible for the paperwork and gets fined if they drive their truck into Kent without the paperwork correct on their Kent Access Permit. KAP essentially creates another internal UK border for goods vehicles! 4. Admin - how will this work? The Goods Vehicle Movement Service which will control things like the KAP doesn't currently exist. Yet will be responsible for groceries movement from 1st January. 5. Consumer confidence - are consumers likely to become more concerned the closer we get to the deadline? Yes - metrics already sharply rising and the issues discussed here not yet well known.|
And thats it. Sounds like fun times ahead. Or not - experts are all wrong anyway according to spaff stains like IDS
That second one looks difficult for a UK small importer? I guess some type of 'lettbox' accommodation address services will spring up in the EU? Whether it'll be worth the extra cost and hassle for a small volume exporter is the question.
On the car rental manager issue, I take the point, but what's the solution? 1. Raise manager pay? Seems to me that a more motivated manager retained for longer would have some additional value, but maybe I'm wrong. 2. Reduce minimum wage so agents get paid less, increasing the gap? Manager is still a shitty job at shitty pay. Unless the people who leave within 6 months are going back to being car agents/minimum wage elsewhere, they'll still leave. 3. Keep status quo? Maybe that works for the rental companies. If so, fine for them.
Presumably option 3 does work for the rental companies, or they'd pay managers better to keep them longer. So if you reduce minimum wage (option 2) what makes you think that rental manager pay would not also drop down to be the same amount above rental agent that it is now?
On the point about outsourcing social security obligations - why should governments subsidise businesses? Or, to put it another way, why should companies that pay more subsidise, through taxes, companies that pay less?
This is a valid point, but one we can turn around. Why should it be the responsibility of employers to ensure people have enough to live on, providing they pay the market rate for the job? That kind of social security is rightly the responsibility of governments. The fact is, governments will happily up minimum wage because they can sell it as the government delivering for the people, while not having to pay for any of it.
On car rental management, I think it's a mixture of (1) and (3) and mainly that managers' basic pay needs to be increased so that they are no longer dependent on bonus for upgrades that they don't directly control. The agent gets a smaller bonus, but what if they don't do the upsell? The manager still needs that agent to be at the counter.
I think the key question is why the market rate for semi-skilled labour in the UK is at or just above minimum wage? Why has there been stagnation in the wages of Western European workers over the last 20-30 years?
That is a question that cannot be answered.
The returns from neoliberal globalization, deregulation, offshoring of labour and tax avoidance concentrated increasingly in the hands of owners of capital and of professionals in tech/finance and supporting sectors?
What is this Government going to achieve, beyond leaving the EU, which was in January?
Highest death toll in Europe?
Worst economic response to Covid?
The UK had the worst economic response? I thought the various schemes were viewed quite highly.
The reason for the sharp GDP drop was that the U.K. furlough scheme was one of the most generous in the world. Means that the V-shaped recovery is much more likely in the U.K. than elsewhere where furlough has been replaced by redundancy.
Surely mass redundancies are just around the corner when furlough ends, how can this have a positive economic impact?
Grocery Industry Brexit Webinar update from the IGD Chief Economist: 1. Trade talks are not going well. 16th October's EU Council meeting is the absolute drop dead date for a deal, and our objectives remain mutually incompatible and neither is compromising enough to get a deal. 2. The economic shock will now happen regardless, obviously far worse with no deal. An asymmetrical impact will hit blue collar / manufacturing very hard 3. Government have a thing delightfully called BOM - Border Operating Model. A significant number of people through the supply chain will need to spend a lot of time managing the process. Cost in time plus cost of customs declarations, inspection costs etc etc 4. Three phases of BOM changes. Food groceries high risk items on a number of measures so impacted hard from day 1. 5. A lot of EU imported food comes on EU vehicles - will become very uncertain if economically viable for all of them. Currently mixed loads and backhaul - very difficult with new paperwork and checks 6. Vehicles and drivers will need a "Kent Access Permit" having uploaded everything via the app on the new Goods Vehicle Movement Service (which doesn't exist) - the driver, not the company, will be fined £000s for not having a Kent Access Permit or having the details wrong.
More will follow
The EU was created to get rid of absurdities like a "Kent Access Permit". We will see a rapid proliferation of stupid crap like this on both sides of the border. Thanks Brexit.
If Barnier wants to stop talking about fish before October, then there’s a chance of avoiding a lot of the paperwork.
What is this Government going to achieve, beyond leaving the EU, which was in January?
Highest death toll in Europe?
Worst economic response to Covid?
The UK had the worst economic response? I thought the various schemes were viewed quite highly.
The reason for the sharp GDP drop was that the U.K. furlough scheme was one of the most generous in the world. Means that the V-shaped recovery is much more likely in the U.K. than elsewhere where furlough has been replaced by redundancy.
Surely mass redundancies are just around the corner when furlough ends, how can this have a positive economic impact?
What is this Government going to achieve, beyond leaving the EU, which was in January?
Highest death toll in Europe?
Worst economic response to Covid?
The UK had the worst economic response? I thought the various schemes were viewed quite highly.
The reason for the sharp GDP drop was that the U.K. furlough scheme was one of the most generous in the world. Means that the V-shaped recovery is much more likely in the U.K. than elsewhere where furlough has been replaced by redundancy.
Australia's scheme must have been generous to have pushed average household income up during the lockdown?
Grocery Industry Brexit Webinar update from the IGD Chief Economist: 1. Trade talks are not going well. 16th October's EU Council meeting is the absolute drop dead date for a deal, and our objectives remain mutually incompatible and neither is compromising enough to get a deal. 2. The economic shock will now happen regardless, obviously far worse with no deal. An asymmetrical impact will hit blue collar / manufacturing very hard 3. Government have a thing delightfully called BOM - Border Operating Model. A significant number of people through the supply chain will need to spend a lot of time managing the process. Cost in time plus cost of customs declarations, inspection costs etc etc 4. Three phases of BOM changes. Food groceries high risk items on a number of measures so impacted hard from day 1. 5. A lot of EU imported food comes on EU vehicles - will become very uncertain if economically viable for all of them. Currently mixed loads and backhaul - very difficult with new paperwork and checks 6. Vehicles and drivers will need a "Kent Access Permit" having uploaded everything via the app on the new Goods Vehicle Movement Service (which doesn't exist) - the driver, not the company, will be fined £000s for not having a Kent Access Permit or having the details wrong.
More will follow
The EU was created to get rid of absurdities like a "Kent Access Permit". We will see a rapid proliferation of stupid crap like this on both sides of the border. Thanks Brexit.
If Barnier wants to stop talking about fish before October, then there’s a chance of avoiding a lot of the paperwork.
We hold all the cards.
Just a shame the game is chess, eh?
It's uno
It's a shame the game is poker and our cards include a Magic the gathering card, Master Bun the Baker's son, the top trump that can't win any battle, a pokemon card and the 2 of diamonds from a different pack. (yes I have used that joke before).
In reality I think the EU and UK both know there is no chance of a deal and are positioning the blame....
Comments
PS Kei cars are pretty great and much cheaper to run but I don't think they're a majority. I guess the spec is basically a non-tariff barrier. I have a Copen which is a totally awesome car but it's also slightly ridiculous to have a 0.6 litre engine (to pass the kei regulations) then put a turbo in it. When they used to sell the previous model in Britain they put in like 1.3 litre or something less outrageously teensy.
Wishful thinking from Mr. Smithson I suspect.
Boris has a lead in polls, a massive majority and is about to claim credit for an economic recovery which was both inevitable and yet somehow not foreseen by much of the media.
WHY? What has Putin got on Trump?
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/02/politics/trump-admin-silence-navalny-poisoning-novichok/index.html
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/09/02/nicola-sturgeon-covid-strategy-not-going-expert-warns-school/
1. Raise manager pay? Seems to me that a more motivated manager retained for longer would have some additional value, but maybe I'm wrong.
2. Reduce minimum wage so agents get paid less, increasing the gap? Manager is still a shitty job at shitty pay. Unless the people who leave within 6 months are going back to being car agents/minimum wage elsewhere, they'll still leave.
3. Keep status quo? Maybe that works for the rental companies. If so, fine for them.
Presumably option 3 does work for the rental companies, or they'd pay managers better to keep them longer. So if you reduce minimum wage (option 2) what makes you think that rental manager pay would not also drop down to be the same amount above rental agent that it is now?
On the point about outsourcing social security obligations - why should governments subsidise businesses? Or, to put it another way, why should companies that pay more subsidise, through taxes, companies that pay less?
Case numbers (the reported ones) are misleading for England and Wales - where the infection rate in the population in general is either stable or in a slight decline.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301190941110341632
It's important to remember that Trump's victory in 2016 was a bit of a fluke and came down to having votes in *exactly* the right places. No reason to believe he will be as lucky this time.
I do agree with you though that the state level polling is often rubbish - some of the sample sizes are laughably small (e.g. the Monmouth poll for PA had 400 respondents!). BUt even in 2016 the national level polling was pretty good.
1. Trade talks are not going well. 16th October's EU Council meeting is the absolute drop dead date for a deal, and our objectives remain mutually incompatible and neither is compromising enough to get a deal.
2. The economic shock will now happen regardless, obviously far worse with no deal. An asymmetrical impact will hit blue collar / manufacturing very hard
3. Government have a thing delightfully called BOM - Border Operating Model. A significant number of people through the supply chain will need to spend a lot of time managing the process. Cost in time plus cost of customs declarations, inspection costs etc etc
4. Three phases of BOM changes. Food groceries high risk items on a number of measures so impacted hard from day 1.
5. A lot of EU imported food comes on EU vehicles - will become very uncertain if economically viable for all of them. Currently mixed loads and backhaul - very difficult with new paperwork and checks
6. Vehicles and drivers will need a "Kent Access Permit" having uploaded everything via the app on the new Goods Vehicle Movement Service (which doesn't exist) - the driver, not the company, will be fined £000s for not having a Kent Access Permit or having the details wrong.
More will follow
So methodologies between pollsters must be different? Opinium still outlier
On car rental management, I think it's a mixture of (1) and (3) and mainly that managers' basic pay needs to be increased so that they are no longer dependent on bonus for upgrades that they don't directly control. The agent gets a smaller bonus, but what if they don't do the upsell? The manager still needs that agent to be at the counter.
Going for full re-opening straight away seems like a huge gamble and goes completely counter to the "Over Cautious Sturgeon" narrative.
Home working, exclusively, is down to 20% of the workforce,
7. NI Protocol. All digital admin, all on NI side. EU tariffs payable to ship intra-UK on goods "at risk" of onward shipping into ROI - food groceries almost certain to be covered. Significant risk to viability of current GB/NI logistics model
8. Skilled workers - very unlikely that most of the EU people employed in the industry would be allowed in as won't earn enough points
9. Business timetable expected to be far tighter than the government's timetable - late issue of guidance (as done repeatedly over schools / Covid) will be very bad for business
10. UK Labour market weak and expected to worsen. Covid significantly reduces the UK's ability to absorb Brexit costs even if a deal is produced. OBR forecasted 12% unemployment, OECD 14% - so people won't be able to absorb rising prices. Wage growth has gone negative. However very low inflation has helped, and was heavily driven by fuel savings caused by lockdown and changes to working practices.
11. Retail demand has been delivered through explosive growth in high cost to serve online. Sales turnover delivers less profit than previously.
More to follow
But the Boris Boys used to get excited about 20% leads, then 10% leads, now it's a 6% lead.
Erosion. You can't see it day-to-day, but it destroys mountains. Sometimes, faster than you might think.
They hoofed out the 21 with a modicum of integrity who knew Brexit will be a disaster, and all the rest knuckled under to serve the Glorious Rentier Reich.
Principles be damned, stay in power, and faces down in the trough.
It is what the Tory party does. For the rest of our lives...
screen grab from ONS report.
She actually couldn't process it for a while. Until she read this
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53869671
Which is, I think, a sensible summation of the situation.
And it would be nice to see the Tories faced with a "lose lose" electoral choice for a change.
12. Grocery market forecast - "bad" or "worse"... 3 year forecast only
13. Big growth in 2020 - share of stomach swing caused by the collapse of Food Service. Expect this will swing back in 2021. However, inflation is the driver of this - strip inflation out and its still negative overall
14. Hypermarkets/ Supermarkets very low single digit growth expected. Online 59% growth - higher cost to serve than bricks and mortar
15. Brexit increasingly rising as being of interest to the public (IGD have a large panel of consumers polled). Shopper financial confidence has recovered to -16% but shoppers increasingly concerned about spending money and the future impacts of Covid & Brexit. Concern growing about availability, ethical standards and quality - more likely to try and find local food sourcing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019_4
Is there good evidence that approval ratings are more important than party preference polling or leadership ratings?
What is this Government going to achieve, beyond leaving the EU, which was in January?
I can't think of any time recently the polls have been out by 7%.
Dozens and dozens of them.
Take for example Sars, Mers, H1N1.....we as a country more or less ignored them as far as taking precautions.
Now however once over Covid I think the next virus to come along it will be a brave government that doesn't take preemptive precautionary measures in case its another Covid event.
Therefore trying to move to a model of life where it is less disruptive of things to do so seems sensible. Imagine if when covid struck we were already mostly working at home for those jobs that can. High streets had already rebalanced around this new normal.
It would be nice if our politicians used a little foresight as I am damn sure Covid won't be the last such event in most of our lifetimes
I'm fairly confident that rapid testing (coming on stream soon) and greater surveillance should enable us to avoid a spike of anything like the scale that occured in the spring.
Still, it will play well psychologically with many Leavers. They want a country that is very hard for people and things to get into. This makes it feel more special for natives.
The deflation of the Covid Loyalty Bounce (the one that is NOTHING AT ALL to do with anyone visiting Durham, because that's not a story) left a Conservative lead of about 7%, with individual polls scattering higher or lower. Then nothing happened for a few months. There might have been another chip in the last few weeks; too early to tell for sure.
1. Now talking about how the ports will operate. Government suggesting a smart system will allow them to prioritise certain types of short life produce.
2. Export to EU from UK. Companies will need an EU address on the actual products - an EU office would be needed for legal / consumer queries.
3. Logistics. The need to have every type of product on a vehicle inspected and paperwork issued will be a "challenge" when full vehicles in both directions essential for the industry. One item on one pallet could delay the whole load (and thus down the line delays) and the DRIVER not the company is responsible for the paperwork and gets fined if they drive their truck into Kent without the paperwork correct on their Kent Access Permit. KAP essentially creates another internal UK border for goods vehicles!
4. Admin - how will this work? The Goods Vehicle Movement Service which will control things like the KAP doesn't currently exist. Yet will be responsible for groceries movement from 1st January.
5. Consumer confidence - are consumers likely to become more concerned the closer we get to the deadline? Yes - metrics already sharply rising and the issues discussed here not yet well known.|
And thats it. Sounds like fun times ahead. Or not - experts are all wrong anyway according to spaff stains like IDS
Because the cases found by testing is steadily heading up. At some point, probably in the near future, we will see the cases getting close to the estimated infection level....
https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1301447340029603842?s=21
Worst economic response to Covid?
In this best case scenario we have a truck laden with 35 double stacked pallets. Every class of item with its own separate customs declaration. Every class of item with its own standards declaration. With the costs both in time to complete plus the actual cost of the actual declaration. Logistics works on full vehicles so a lot of mixed loads exists. Trucks will need to be loaded so that they aren't mixing pallets of different standards and so that the stuff that may need inspecting is easy to access. That adds complexity space requirements and costs to the logistics operators before you even load the truck.
Truck sets off, electronic permits obtained. Arrives at the port. Has its customs forms inspected. Has its standards forms inspected. Has the actual product visually inspected as appropriate. Crosses the border onto the boat / train. How long will this take vs now and how much does that time cost? And when the inevitable human / system error occurs? Truck ends up parked for everything open inspection. Driver gets fined £300 for his Kent Access Permit being in error. More delay. More cost.
All because of a political decision to leave the EEA and CU. Save money and cut red tape they said. The opposite in reality. As this government pretends it isn't a direct continuation of the previous 10 years of Tory government can we look forward to Johnson's successor announcing they are going to save British business by cutting through this mountain of EU red tape...?
In reality I think the EU and UK both know there is no chance of a deal and are positioning the blame....