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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson can’t go on being as dire at PMQs as he was yesterday
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson can’t go on being as dire at PMQs as he was yesterday
I first began reporting professionally as a journalist on PMQs in 1972 when I was part of the small team that produced the “Today in Parliament” programme for BBC Radio 4. Three years later I was one of the editors that handled the parliamentary broadcasting experiment that was the forerunner of the proceedings of the House being broadcast on radio and then later television.
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I am struck by the headlines on the BBC this morning about the Govt “overseeing the demise of U.K. aviation”. Which they quite clearly are. But they don’t care. Because they have a line to parrot, that they have “offered unprecedented support to the sector”. It’s just tin eared to the point of irrelevance. If at the end of it there is actually no U.K. aviation industry the so what? Not their responsibility guv.
His consistently utterly lamentable performances at PMQs are nothing short of embarrassing, which is all the more surprising, given his background as an Oxford Classics Scholar and his highly successful earlier career as a political journalist, prior to entering the fray himself, when he had a reputation as being exceptionally bright, not least when it came to thinking on his feet.
Where I am perhaps somewhat at odds with Mike Smithson's thinking is that I tend towards the Macbeth school of thought in that "If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well It were done quickly". I really don't see any point in prolonging the agony to the point where Boris might even become a figure of ridicule.
I therefore tend to agree with swing_voter below and take the view that he will depart sooner rather than later. I have therefore previously loaded on his ceasing to be Prime Minister during 2021, with a much smaller amount having been wagered on him going this year, by way of insurance, although it is already almost too late for this to be the case. Doubtless, when the time comes, the explanation that he is retiring on account of ill-health will doubtless be provided as the reason for his stepping-down.
Over there is a president who makes more outrageous comments than Johnson’s IRA smear, and piles up the bullshit, bluster and waffle, on a daily basis. And his party follow him slavishly.
I’m have a very low view of the current Tory party, but they do not yet approach the sheer degradation of the Republicans.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/02/trump-vote-twice-voter-fraud-408007
President Donald Trump encouraged North Carolina residents to attempt to vote both via the mail and in person, seemingly urging them to commit voter fraud as a test of mail-in voting systems in a trip to the state on Wednesday.
“They are going to have to check their vote by going to the poll and voting that way because if it tabulates, then they won’t be able to do that,” he said in an interview with the Wilmington, N.C.-based WECT. “So let them send it in, and let them go vote. And if their system is as good as they say it is, then obviously they won’t be able to vote. If it isn’t tabulated, they will be able to vote. So that’s the way it is, and that’s what they should do.”..
.... Under North Carolina state law, it is a felony “for any person with intent to commit a fraud to register or vote at more than one precinct or more than one time, or to induce another to do so.” Voting more than once is also illegal under federal law.
Another advantage Trump has is that he doesn't radiate self-hatred.
https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1301223414011658241
Who would want to be PM at a time like this?
- recession will be milder than previously predicted
- recovery during 2021 and 2022
- no big government stimulation will be required
- GNP will fall 3.2% this year, followed by growth of 4.1% in 2021 and 2% in 2022
- unemployment will stabilise mid-2021
- house prices will rise 6% this year
Coronavirus testing rationed amid outbreaks
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53990068
...The government has pledged to increase its capacity to 500,000 tests a day by the end of October.
Currently, it says, testing capacity is about 350,000 a day - but only just over half of that is being used.
Daily testing has only broken 200,000 on one day, despite the government hailing reaching its target of having that level of capacity at the end of May.
The DHSC stressed that booking slots were added in the evening for morning appointments and in the morning for afternoon appointments, so more local slots might become available through the day.
The website states: "This service is currently very busy. If you are unable to book a test now or the location and time is not convenient for you, please try again in a few hours when more tests should be available...
These cheap, rapid mass tests need deployed as soon as possible.
They don’t have to be 100% accurate.
... The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) said it was investing £500m in existing trials of new tests including a rapid 20 minute test and a saliva-based test. These will be trialled on groups of people including staff and students at the University of Southampton and four Southampton schools...
Mr. Voter, I like the idea of the incumbent leaving promptly but given his ambition appears to be the sun around which all else revolves I'll believe he's resigned when I see it.
https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1301279928579751937?s=19
The IRA thing sounded desperate and gave SKS one of his better ripostes. The Speaker has clearly decided that the "take no lectures " nonsense is not an answer to the question at all which is surely right but seems a tightening of the behaviour we saw before the recess.
Boris, when well, is quick on his feet. He has never been one for detail or "homework" but he had a quick mind that normally brought an adequate response. Its what made him a good debater. He really struggled to answer the various questions, not just from SKS, about the end of furlough. There was a painful lack of clarity in his thinking.
I fear that he is not going to recover. Giving him some time to get over a serious illness was fair enough but he is not doing so. Before the recess he seemed to be getting the hang of SKS with his portentous overly wordy style and regularly got the better of him. Yesterday was like he had forgotten how. It is not a good sign.
Now Sweden's massive public sector (which is... decoupled... from the private sector) cushions it somewhat. But the reality is that consumer spending fell more than neighbours, while the recovery has been more muted.
If I have to choose between the forecasts of Nordea (the Lloyds TSB of Sweden) and Markit, I know which one I'll choose. (Worth noting that neither Svenska Handelsbank and SEB share Nordea's rose tinted glasses).
Does anyone seriously expect anything other than continuous omni- incompetence over the next year? Even the braying dolts on the Tory backbenches can see what an oaf that they have leading them.
My money is on Q3 next year to be replaced for the party conference, and for it to be Priti or Hunt. I just hope that the damage to the Tory party from such events considerably surpasses the damage to the country from the ship of fools.
https://twitter.com/DSNickBailey/status/1301262427347132423?s=20
https://twitter.com/SarahBailey3/status/1301261209572986881?s=20
So what happened yesterday that was so bad? He didn't know the detail, refused to answer and resorted to waffle and insults. None of this is new. Its now clear that Williamson has been caught lying through his teeth over the exams fiasco - doesn't matter. Patel leaves the door wide open for our take back control borders to allow anyone to waltz in unchecked and undocumented, even now. Doesn't matter. Sebastian Fox lectures workers on the need to return to the office. From home. Doesn't matter. Lets not even mention the Brexit asteroid hurtling towards us.
None of it matters. Because this is a post-fact world. However bad Shagger may be, the alternative was Jezbollah. So whatever happens, it isn't as bad - as Johnson rightly pointed out yesterday - as Corbyn would have made it. The ultimate get out of jail free card for the Tories. Yes we have ruined the education of your children. Left millions of you with no financial support at all as we close your industry down. Knackered our prospects for the decade. Haven't bothered to get anything ready for the moment of national self-harm. We're clueless, uncaring, incompetent. But the alternative was Corbyn.
Still, it's a useful fiction both for his supporters and his opponents.
I suspect you mistake Johnson sometimes avoiding an absolute drubbing with a victory.
The idea that he's 'fast on his feet' or verbally quick is a myth.
https://twitter.com/scottlgreer/status/1301177078738542592
But we already know the answer
𝘾𝙇𝘼𝙉𝘿𝙀𝙎𝙏𝙄𝙉𝙀 𝘾𝙃𝘼𝙉𝙉𝙀𝙇 𝙏𝙃𝙍𝙀𝘼𝙏 𝘾𝙊𝙈𝙈𝘼𝙉𝘿𝙀𝙍
The short term damage of abandoning PMQs would be quickly offset by no more reporting of weekly Wednesday humiliations.
Of course it's the sort of thing that won't impinge until he does it on TV. If he ever gets himself on TV again, other than doing something 'clever'.
Re: Trafalgar, what pollsters say about their methods is interesting, but they all should surely believe in their own methodology and be able to make a case for it, but such cases are always a bit speculative and need to be taken with a pinch of salt. Trafalgar don't really have any track record to speak of in presidential elections, and the record they do have isn't that great, so I don't see any reason to give any extra weight to this one pollster.
Of course if you are a bit on one side or the other of where most pollsters are, pure chance is going to give you a decent probability of looking good, and a decent probability of looking bad. That seems to be the simplest explanation of Trafalgar doing OK in 2016, and quite badly in 2018.
Anecdata: Nordea is right regarding house-prices. Villas and semis are selling like hot-cakes in our leafy suburb. Bids far above asking price are coming in straight after the first viewing. If you want a property you have to bid very aggressively indeed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUDEpqyJ-_w
How the hell have Britain and America ended up with leaders who are totally unfit for office?
In particular, we know from examples on this site that people who had the deepest reservations about Boris backed him because they wanted to win. They won; being governed by an inadequate was always part of the deal.
(not a high bar, I know, but worth noting)
Or more pungently..
Hard to be credible though.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0x1k6p8PJU
As for abolishing PMQs... the weekly humiliation doesn't cut through (except with Conservative MPs), but trying to abolish it surely would.
Although...perhaps Starmer should avoid drinking the tea when he is invited for briefings at Downing Street.
Crete and Zante both clubbers islands too.
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1301415703677992960?s=09
And no simply saying England is 90% so who cares about them isn't an answr?
What matters is more that the perception that the Government is incompetent has cut through. That makes it harder for Rishi to argue that tax rises are necessary (though they may well be), because people will say "They wouldn't be if if you weren't all so useless".
But Trump is worse than Bush Jnr. He's the worst President of all time except for his hero Andrew Jackson.
https://twitter.com/gdog2010_john/status/1301287764244205570?s=19
The current situation will see Britain continue to disappear down the plughole.
We'll be looking at omni-incompetent.
I would have suggested different grades, say W, V, X, Y, Z to make the point they are different from normal years and allowed the inflation.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53990068
I need a virus test, so I'll just pop in the car and head up the A1 for 100 miles.
There is going to be a lot of anger on all sides and total failure by both the EU and UK negotiators
But even pre Iraq, asymmetric devolution was constitutional vandalism that is leading inevitably to the destruction of the UK as a state, when it was designed to kill nationalism stone dead.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
which is where he was when they introduced the forecast about 3 weeks ago
I think it's a shame they aren't doing a nowcast this year, which would give us an idea of what the model would say if the polls are like they are today on election day. This is the more robust part of the model, compared to the "uncertainty" they add because of the time til the election which is basically informed guesswork.
1. Iraq
2. Asymmetric devolution
3: Led to Brexit (no controls on A10 and pushing through with Lisbon against his own manifesto)
Then it would all be down to the Al Gore Rhythm......
Its like one of the letters you get from a parking ticket company when they are trying to extort money from you.
Unpleasant though he is, I am not sure what sort of credible strategy there could be to exit Uncle Vova.
https://www.msnbc.com/11th-hour/watch/new-polls-biden-leads-trump-nationwide-and-in-key-battleground-states-91054149917
Spoiler - only by 0.2%.
Legally, I cannot meet Fox jr and his partner anywhere but a pub, restaurant or park*. This has been the case for 6 months now.
* or a flight to Crete...
That said I think hes safe for a long time and there will be a vast overreaction as Tory polling slips behind labour.
- Careless and complacent financial regulation which led to the 2008 crash
- Culture of dodgy dossiers, spin and the death of David Kelly
- Minimum wage, which disincentivises low-skilled from upskilling themselves
- High property prices, so that houses are unaffordable for the young anywhere people actually want to live
- Gordon Brown
etc. etc.
If he feels the rules aren't working for him, he will try and change the rules. If he feels someone is disloyal to him he will get someone loyal. Competence doesn't matter. It's all about him.
He has no sense of duty, honour or integrity - all the things that matter.
He must go.