I read all this stuff on here about the US voting system - dodgy machines, faithless electors, ECV skewing the popular vote, gerrymanding on an industrial scale, etc etc.
I am not sure that they have any right to call themselves a democracy. The whole thing strikes me as a monied stitch-up verging on the farcical ...
Don't forget taking months to work out how many votes were actually cast and were valid. I really think that the UN should offer third country monitors from more mature, functioning democracies to give guidance and stop the more egregious cheating. Especially this time around.
When I saw law & order, I mean law & order. In other words, it's the most basic duty of Government to avoid anarchy and ensure fair and just administration of the law and to maintain public order and safety on the streets. There's nothing political or partisan about it - all lawlessness should be dealt with equally.
It may have more partisan connotations in the States more akin to "sticking the boot in", which might account for that poll.
Some might say (face it, we all would) that equality before the law is a vital part of ensuring fair and just administration of the law, and the USA is clearly failing in this.
Whether there is a deal or not comes down entirely to whether Johnson thinks he needs Brexit to be some kind of success or whether he reckons blaming the failure of Brexit on the EU works equally well for him.
The Tories are above 40% because - well everyone knows tax rises are coming. People are just hoping those tax rises won't disproportionately affect them. Soon as the tax rises hit the Tories are sub 40 with Labour taking a lead I think.
Which is why Tory MPs will likely vote down any budget with significant tax rises
If they do that, does is mean the end of the Johnson experiment? And of Cummings too?
And if he does not get way with tax changes, will Sunak resign?
What are the current regulatory barriers to doing either of those things?
This is just disingenuous claptrap.
I'd hazard a guess at GDPR consent issues. The end user would need to formally consent to individual venues using their data before their ID could be checked.
I'm not in favour of this Orwellian sounding system, however, I'd be surprised if it could be implemented under current data rules.
Whether there is a deal or not comes down entirely to whether Johnson thinks he needs Brexit to be some kind of success or whether he reckons blaming the failure of Brexit on the EU works equally well for him.
Brexit will be a success either way.
The economic consequences of a deal or no deal are a rounding error compared to what is being done about COVID.
ID cards are not necessarily a bad idea but of course it's Cummings so what he really wants is to mine our data and give the contracts to his friends
No, ID cards are a terrible idea.
A single sign on for government services is a good idea, providing that Ms @Cyclefree or a well-known privacy advocate is involved in setting it up to avoid the big database.
As pointed out upthread, we already have one.
As for ID cards, the reasons government want them is because they want the data, to monitor and surveil us and, most likely to monetise and sell it.
And as far as my data is concerned, they can fuck right off.
I was against Blair’s monstrous ID cards idea and I’m not going to go for this Brexit-Tory one either.
The Tories are above 40% because - well everyone knows tax rises are coming. People are just hoping those tax rises won't disproportionately affect them. Soon as the tax rises hit the Tories are sub 40 with Labour taking a lead I think.
Which is why Tory MPs will likely vote down any budget with significant tax rises
If they do that, does is mean the end of the Johnson experiment? And of Cummings too?
And if he does not get way with tax changes, will Sunak resign?
I look forward to the reply from young HY...
HYUFD is full of s**t.
The Tories will vote through Sunak's budget, whatever it is. And if there are tax changes then HYUFD will be cheering them on, whatever they are.
In which case Williamson made the right choice. Unless you wanted to see an even bigger than usual gap between the independent sector (who would have been least affected by this) and state schools, particularly those in poorer areas where all too many students would have had little or no access to any online learning, let alone well resourced and careful targeted e-lessons.
ID cards are not necessarily a bad idea but of course it's Cummings so what he really wants is to mine our data and give the contracts to his friends
No, ID cards are a terrible idea.
A single sign on for government services is a good idea, providing that Ms @Cyclefree or a well-known privacy advocate is involved in setting it up to avoid the big database.
As pointed out upthread, we already have one.
As for ID cards, the reasons government want them is because they want the data, to monitor and surveil us and, most likely to monetise and sell it.
And as far as my data is concerned, they can fuck right off.
I was against Blair’s monstrous ID cards idea and I’m not going to go for this Brexit-Tory one either.
No doubt people will say it's completely different, but I remember one Boris Johnson being very opposed.
I remember the day after the bombings Red Ken made a point of being seen on the Tube. It was one of the more impressive things he did. Ministers (and the current Mayor) really should be doing the same. Now.
They recently replayed Livingstone being interviewed after the bombings on an R4 prog about the Olympic bid and it was genuinely impressive and moving, probably his high point. Hard to believe now that he was an extremely talented politician.
It would be unethical for an exchange to allow a person to offer a bet, and to tell a potential taker of the bet how much they will receive if successful, when the exchange knows there is literally zero probability of them paying out to the taker of the bet.
Well that's what they effectively did with the Theresa May exit date market.
What an absolute dumpster fire that market was. All Betfair needs to do is avoid creating a false market, they failed miserably on that occasion.
I didn't think it was possible for Betfair to screw up a bet more than when they voided the year of the next election market in 2011 but they achieved it with the Theresa May exit date market and then some.
The Tories are above 40% because - well everyone knows tax rises are coming. People are just hoping those tax rises won't disproportionately affect them. Soon as the tax rises hit the Tories are sub 40 with Labour taking a lead I think.
Which is why Tory MPs will likely vote down any budget with significant tax rises
If they do that, does is mean the end of the Johnson experiment? And of Cummings too?
And if he does not get way with tax changes, will Sunak resign?
I look forward to the reply from young HY...
No, not necessarily but Tory MPs, especially newly elected ones now see themselves as closer to US Congressmen then voting fodder ie they will put what their voters want not what No 10 and 11 wants first
Whether there is a deal or not comes down entirely to whether Johnson thinks he needs Brexit to be some kind of success or whether he reckons blaming the failure of Brexit on the EU works equally well for him.
Brexit will be a success either way.
The economic consequences of a deal or no deal are a rounding error compared to what is being done about COVID.
The Tories are above 40% because - well everyone knows tax rises are coming. People are just hoping those tax rises won't disproportionately affect them. Soon as the tax rises hit the Tories are sub 40 with Labour taking a lead I think.
Which is why Tory MPs will likely vote down any budget with significant tax rises
If they do that, does is mean the end of the Johnson experiment? And of Cummings too?
And if he does not get way with tax changes, will Sunak resign?
I look forward to the reply from young HY...
No, not necessarily but Tory MPs, especially newly elected ones now see themselves as closer to US Congressmen then voting fodder ie they will put what their voters want not what No 10 and 11 wants first
Have Labour in recent memory actually been against tax rises whilst Tories have been for?
Arguably under Blair from 1992 to 1997 in regards to VAT and Lamont's tax rises did not exactly work out well for the Tories.
Similarly when Bush Snr broke his 'read my lips, no new taxes pledge' plenty of Bush 1988 voters switched to Clinton or Perot in 1992 and Bush was beaten
Just seen some new forecasts come through for Q3. City consensus looks like 17%, European and American banks closer to 15%, UK banks (and UK branches of European banks) closer to 20%. There isn't usually such a big spread but I think European banks especially have underestimated the scale of WFH in the UK and are misunderstanding the real-time indicators showing that public transport use is still only 55% of the prior year.
One of our guys thinks that the £500m EOTHO spend has got close to a 9x economic multiplier based on transaction data we've received from POS and merchant services companies. He says it's the single most successful economic policy of the last 50 years. He thinks the chancellor should extend it for non franchise restaurants with 50 or fewer locations until the end of the year, essentially locking out the big chains like McDonalds and KFC but allowing smaller chains and independents to continue benefiting. It would also cut the cost of the policy by 50-60%.
July GDP data is going to be a very big day for the UK, it should show that the UK is currently the fastest growing global economy and is having the best bounceback and give us a sense of where we're headed by December.
I presume we have another week or so to wait for that?
Found the data on transport usage -
Food for thought among the London centric, I think
Wow so pretty much back at 100% for most of the country.
And people were claiming here yesterday that Boris was lying for saying that huge numbers of people had gone back to work. I said here that the roads seem as busy as they were preCOVID and this demonstrates it.
The country exists outside of London not that you'd know it from people saying "look at this empty Tube, nobody is working!"
But the buses are empty in the bits of Islington that Guardian columnists aspire to live in.
Not many journalists can realistically aspire to live in Islington. You need to have serious inherited wealth to live there, like Dominic Cummings or Boris Johnson* * until his wife threw him out.
Just been watching PMQ's. The Prime Ministers performance must rank as the most pathetic, embarressing, incompetent, unprofessional and worrying that I have ever seen. He is clearly completely out of his depth. I cannot see him surviving much longer. There must be someone on the Government benches he could speak up for th government, he just blunders and tries to spread confusion, but has met the wrong person in Starmer. The IRA reference was quite despicable.
What was despicable was the Labour party continuing to tolerate Corbyn and then electing him leader despite his collaboration with the IRA. As someone who chose to be on his front bench, as opposed to those who stayed on the back benches, SKS does have to justify that even although his own record in anti-terrorism is clearly a lot stronger than Boris's.
Given Boris has a Revolutionary Communist Party member as a senior advisor and just elevated another to the Lords I think that is beyond dodgy ground for Johnson to get on to.
Not to mention the Gover's recent talks with George United Ireland Galloway to save the Union, though tbf the Tories are running away from that as fast as their fat little legs will carry them.
The Tories are above 40% because - well everyone knows tax rises are coming. People are just hoping those tax rises won't disproportionately affect them. Soon as the tax rises hit the Tories are sub 40 with Labour taking a lead I think.
Which is why Tory MPs will likely vote down any budget with significant tax rises
If they do that, does is mean the end of the Johnson experiment? And of Cummings too?
And if he does not get way with tax changes, will Sunak resign?
I look forward to the reply from young HY...
No, not necessarily but Tory MPs, especially newly elected ones now see themselves as closer to US Congressmen then voting fodder ie they will put what their voters want not what No 10 and 11 wants first
Do you think that Cummings and Johnson have taken this factor into account when they go in for their war-gaming?
I remember the day after the bombings Red Ken made a point of being seen on the Tube. It was one of the more impressive things he did. Ministers (and the current Mayor) really should be doing the same. Now.
They recently replayed Livingstone being interviewed after the bombings on an R4 prog about the Olympic bid and it was genuinely impressive and moving, probably his high point. Hard to believe now that he was an extremely talented politician.
I agree it was his high point. Genuine leadership. In short supply right now, unfortunately.
Of course, do you know who else was also an extremely talented politician?
So that's the Tory plan, Brexit can't be a failure, just blame it on COVID instead
Brexit wasn't about quibbling over 0.1% of GDP - Brexit was about taking back control of our laws, money, courts and borders.
If the UK signs up to a deal that signs away our control then Brexit will be a failure. If the UK doesn't then Brexit will be a success - even if GDP is 0.1% lower.
The Tories are above 40% because - well everyone knows tax rises are coming. People are just hoping those tax rises won't disproportionately affect them. Soon as the tax rises hit the Tories are sub 40 with Labour taking a lead I think.
Which is why Tory MPs will likely vote down any budget with significant tax rises
If they do that, does is mean the end of the Johnson experiment? And of Cummings too?
And if he does not get way with tax changes, will Sunak resign?
I look forward to the reply from young HY...
No, not necessarily but Tory MPs, especially newly elected ones now see themselves as closer to US Congressmen then voting fodder ie they will put what their voters want not what No 10 and 11 wants first
Do you think that Cummings and Johnson have taken this factor into account when they go in for their war-gaming?
Probably not but they will soon find out, though it seems the Treasury most keen on tax rises
I remember the day after the bombings Red Ken made a point of being seen on the Tube. It was one of the more impressive things he did. Ministers (and the current Mayor) really should be doing the same. Now.
They recently replayed Livingstone being interviewed after the bombings on an R4 prog about the Olympic bid and it was genuinely impressive and moving, probably his high point. Hard to believe now that he was an extremely talented politician.
I agree it was his high point. Genuine leadership. In short supply right now, unfortunately.
Of course, do you know who else was also an extremely talented politician?
Whether there is a deal or not comes down entirely to whether Johnson thinks he needs Brexit to be some kind of success or whether he reckons blaming the failure of Brexit on the EU works equally well for him.
Brexit will be a success either way.
The economic consequences of a deal or no deal are a rounding error compared to what is being done about COVID.
Experts, schmexperts. FWIW they don't agree with you. Consensus GDP predictions for Covid are -10% this year; +7% next year, ie implied Covid hit by end 2021 of -3%.
Brexit No Deal consensus is -8% on top of the 3% already lost since the referendum. ie a total Brexit hit of -11%
There is quite a lot of downside risk to both those predictions and I haven't seen studies into the conflation of both Brexit and Covid. Also both have negative consequences that go beyond economics. Particularly Brexit.
The Tories are above 40% because - well everyone knows tax rises are coming. People are just hoping those tax rises won't disproportionately affect them. Soon as the tax rises hit the Tories are sub 40 with Labour taking a lead I think.
Which is why Tory MPs will likely vote down any budget with significant tax rises
If they do that, does is mean the end of the Johnson experiment? And of Cummings too?
And if he does not get way with tax changes, will Sunak resign?
I look forward to the reply from young HY...
No, not necessarily but Tory MPs, especially newly elected ones now see themselves as closer to US Congressmen then voting fodder ie they will put what their voters want not what No 10 and 11 wants first
And then be deselected right?
Not by their local associations no, their local parties will be right behind them.
Same problem Blair had with the over 100 Labour MPs who voted against the Iraq War, local CLPs backed them
The Tories are above 40% because - well everyone knows tax rises are coming. People are just hoping those tax rises won't disproportionately affect them. Soon as the tax rises hit the Tories are sub 40 with Labour taking a lead I think.
Which is why Tory MPs will likely vote down any budget with significant tax rises
Doesn't a budget being voted down lead to the government falling?
I remember the day after the bombings Red Ken made a point of being seen on the Tube. It was one of the more impressive things he did. Ministers (and the current Mayor) really should be doing the same. Now.
They recently replayed Livingstone being interviewed after the bombings on an R4 prog about the Olympic bid and it was genuinely impressive and moving, probably his high point. Hard to believe now that he was an extremely talented politician.
I agree it was his high point. Genuine leadership. In short supply right now, unfortunately.
Of course, do you know who else was also an extremely talented politician?
The Tories are above 40% because - well everyone knows tax rises are coming. People are just hoping those tax rises won't disproportionately affect them. Soon as the tax rises hit the Tories are sub 40 with Labour taking a lead I think.
Which is why Tory MPs will likely vote down any budget with significant tax rises
Doesn't a budget being voted down lead to the government falling?
No as they would still vote for the government on a no confidence vote
Just seen some new forecasts come through for Q3. City consensus looks like 17%, European and American banks closer to 15%, UK banks (and UK branches of European banks) closer to 20%. There isn't usually such a big spread but I think European banks especially have underestimated the scale of WFH in the UK and are misunderstanding the real-time indicators showing that public transport use is still only 55% of the prior year.
One of our guys thinks that the £500m EOTHO spend has got close to a 9x economic multiplier based on transaction data we've received from POS and merchant services companies. He says it's the single most successful economic policy of the last 50 years. He thinks the chancellor should extend it for non franchise restaurants with 50 or fewer locations until the end of the year, essentially locking out the big chains like McDonalds and KFC but allowing smaller chains and independents to continue benefiting. It would also cut the cost of the policy by 50-60%.
July GDP data is going to be a very big day for the UK, it should show that the UK is currently the fastest growing global economy and is having the best bounceback and give us a sense of where we're headed by December.
I presume we have another week or so to wait for that?
Found the data on transport usage -
Food for thought among the London centric, I think
Wow so pretty much back at 100% for most of the country.
And people were claiming here yesterday that Boris was lying for saying that huge numbers of people had gone back to work. I said here that the roads seem as busy as they were preCOVID and this demonstrates it.
The country exists outside of London not that you'd know it from people saying "look at this empty Tube, nobody is working!"
But the buses are empty in the bits of Islington that Guardian columnists aspire to live in.
Not many journalists can realistically aspire to live in Islington. You need to have serious inherited wealth to live there, like Dominic Cummings or Boris Johnson* * until his wife threw him out.
But they go to the pubs there and dream. And then go and write columns on the horrors of living in zone 4.
Whether there is a deal or not comes down entirely to whether Johnson thinks he needs Brexit to be some kind of success or whether he reckons blaming the failure of Brexit on the EU works equally well for him.
Brexit will be a success either way.
The economic consequences of a deal or no deal are a rounding error compared to what is being done about COVID.
Experts, schmexperts. FWIW they don't agree with you. Consensus GDP predictions for Covid are -10% this year; +7% next year, ie implied Covid hit by end 2021 of -3%.
Brexit No Deal consensus is -8% on top of the 3% already lost since the referendum. ie a total Brexit hit of -11%
There is quite a lot of downside risk to both those predictions and I haven't seen studies into the conflation of both Brexit and Covid. Also both have negative consequences that go beyond economics. Particularly Brexit.
The Tories are above 40% because - well everyone knows tax rises are coming. People are just hoping those tax rises won't disproportionately affect them. Soon as the tax rises hit the Tories are sub 40 with Labour taking a lead I think.
Which is why Tory MPs will likely vote down any budget with significant tax rises
Doesn't a budget being voted down lead to the government falling?
Tory MPs who wish to remain as Tory MPs will not vote down a Sunak budget. Starmer's opposition to tax rises is risky. It will be very difficult for Labour to oppose tax rises on eg Capital Gains, or oppose restrictions on higher rate relief on pensions contributions.
The Tories are above 40% because - well everyone knows tax rises are coming. People are just hoping those tax rises won't disproportionately affect them. Soon as the tax rises hit the Tories are sub 40 with Labour taking a lead I think.
Which is why Tory MPs will likely vote down any budget with significant tax rises
If they do that, does is mean the end of the Johnson experiment? And of Cummings too?
And if he does not get way with tax changes, will Sunak resign?
I look forward to the reply from young HY...
No, not necessarily but Tory MPs, especially newly elected ones now see themselves as closer to US Congressmen then voting fodder ie they will put what their voters want not what No 10 and 11 wants first
Do you think that Cummings and Johnson have taken this factor into account when they go in for their war-gaming?
Hmm... I think that they might want to ask those remainers such as Philip Hammond, Oliver Letwin and Dominic Grieve how that goes.
The Tories are above 40% because - well everyone knows tax rises are coming. People are just hoping those tax rises won't disproportionately affect them. Soon as the tax rises hit the Tories are sub 40 with Labour taking a lead I think.
Which is why Tory MPs will likely vote down any budget with significant tax rises
If they do that, does is mean the end of the Johnson experiment? And of Cummings too?
And if he does not get way with tax changes, will Sunak resign?
I look forward to the reply from young HY...
No, not necessarily but Tory MPs, especially newly elected ones now see themselves as closer to US Congressmen then voting fodder ie they will put what their voters want not what No 10 and 11 wants first
And then be deselected right?
Not by their local associations no, their local parties will be right behind them.
Same problem Blair had with the over 100 Labour MPs who voted against the Iraq War, local CLPs backed them
But the party would withdraw the whip and kick them out of the party, right?
The Tories are above 40% because - well everyone knows tax rises are coming. People are just hoping those tax rises won't disproportionately affect them. Soon as the tax rises hit the Tories are sub 40 with Labour taking a lead I think.
Which is why Tory MPs will likely vote down any budget with significant tax rises
Doesn't a budget being voted down lead to the government falling?
No as they would still vote for the government on a no confidence vote
Maybe, maybe not.
They wouldn't have the Tory whip after voting down the budget. 🙄
The Tories are above 40% because - well everyone knows tax rises are coming. People are just hoping those tax rises won't disproportionately affect them. Soon as the tax rises hit the Tories are sub 40 with Labour taking a lead I think.
Which is why Tory MPs will likely vote down any budget with significant tax rises
If they do that, does is mean the end of the Johnson experiment? And of Cummings too?
And if he does not get way with tax changes, will Sunak resign?
I look forward to the reply from young HY...
No, not necessarily but Tory MPs, especially newly elected ones now see themselves as closer to US Congressmen then voting fodder ie they will put what their voters want not what No 10 and 11 wants first
And then be deselected right?
Not by their local associations no, their local parties will be right behind them.
Same problem Blair had with the over 100 Labour MPs who voted against the Iraq War, local CLPs backed them
But the party would withdraw the whip and kick them out of the party, right?
Of course! Any party would, Boris would definitely have the confidence to do so.
Just seen some new forecasts come through for Q3. City consensus looks like 17%, European and American banks closer to 15%, UK banks (and UK branches of European banks) closer to 20%. There isn't usually such a big spread but I think European banks especially have underestimated the scale of WFH in the UK and are misunderstanding the real-time indicators showing that public transport use is still only 55% of the prior year.
One of our guys thinks that the £500m EOTHO spend has got close to a 9x economic multiplier based on transaction data we've received from POS and merchant services companies. He says it's the single most successful economic policy of the last 50 years. He thinks the chancellor should extend it for non franchise restaurants with 50 or fewer locations until the end of the year, essentially locking out the big chains like McDonalds and KFC but allowing smaller chains and independents to continue benefiting. It would also cut the cost of the policy by 50-60%.
July GDP data is going to be a very big day for the UK, it should show that the UK is currently the fastest growing global economy and is having the best bounceback and give us a sense of where we're headed by December.
I presume we have another week or so to wait for that?
Found the data on transport usage -
Food for thought among the London centric, I think
Wow so pretty much back at 100% for most of the country.
And people were claiming here yesterday that Boris was lying for saying that huge numbers of people had gone back to work. I said here that the roads seem as busy as they were preCOVID and this demonstrates it.
The country exists outside of London not that you'd know it from people saying "look at this empty Tube, nobody is working!"
But the buses are empty in the bits of Islington that Guardian columnists aspire to live in.
Not many journalists can realistically aspire to live in Islington. You need to have serious inherited wealth to live there, like Dominic Cummings or Boris Johnson* * until his wife threw him out.
But they go to the pubs there and dream. And then go and write columns on the horrors of living in zone 4.
Do they? I've never read one. Don't understand why anyone would want to live north of the river anyway.
The Tories are above 40% because - well everyone knows tax rises are coming. People are just hoping those tax rises won't disproportionately affect them. Soon as the tax rises hit the Tories are sub 40 with Labour taking a lead I think.
Which is why Tory MPs will likely vote down any budget with significant tax rises
If they do that, does is mean the end of the Johnson experiment? And of Cummings too?
And if he does not get way with tax changes, will Sunak resign?
I look forward to the reply from young HY...
No, not necessarily but Tory MPs, especially newly elected ones now see themselves as closer to US Congressmen then voting fodder ie they will put what their voters want not what No 10 and 11 wants first
And then be deselected right?
Not by their local associations no, their local parties will be right behind them.
Same problem Blair had with the over 100 Labour MPs who voted against the Iraq War, local CLPs backed them
But the party would withdraw the whip and kick them out of the party, right?
It couldn't if over 100 MPs rebelled as it would no longer have a majority and if big taxes were proposed the rebellion would be that big if not bigger
I remember the day after the bombings Red Ken made a point of being seen on the Tube. It was one of the more impressive things he did. Ministers (and the current Mayor) really should be doing the same. Now.
They recently replayed Livingstone being interviewed after the bombings on an R4 prog about the Olympic bid and it was genuinely impressive and moving, probably his high point. Hard to believe now that he was an extremely talented politician.
I agree it was his high point. Genuine leadership. In short supply right now, unfortunately.
Of course, do you know who else was also an extremely talented politician?
King William the Lion?
Nah, he made the mistake of taking on Henry II. Never a good idea.
The Tories are above 40% because - well everyone knows tax rises are coming. People are just hoping those tax rises won't disproportionately affect them. Soon as the tax rises hit the Tories are sub 40 with Labour taking a lead I think.
Which is why Tory MPs will likely vote down any budget with significant tax rises
If they do that, does is mean the end of the Johnson experiment? And of Cummings too?
And if he does not get way with tax changes, will Sunak resign?
I look forward to the reply from young HY...
No, not necessarily but Tory MPs, especially newly elected ones now see themselves as closer to US Congressmen then voting fodder ie they will put what their voters want not what No 10 and 11 wants first
And then be deselected right?
Not by their local associations no, their local parties will be right behind them.
Same problem Blair had with the over 100 Labour MPs who voted against the Iraq War, local CLPs backed them
But the party would withdraw the whip and kick them out of the party, right?
It couldn't if over 100 MPs rebelled as it would no longer have a majority and if big taxes were proposed the rebellion would be that big if not bigger
You are delusional. When have MPs ever voted down a budget and kept the whip? This is nonsense, you don't vote against your party on confidence or supply - no ifs or buts.
If tax rises are proposed MPs may grumble, they will brief the press, but they will go through the appropriate lobby as they have to do so.
Party in charge of previous policy of allowing leopards to eat faces cries piteously 'Why won't you support us in our fight to stop leopards eating faces?'
The Tories are above 40% because - well everyone knows tax rises are coming. People are just hoping those tax rises won't disproportionately affect them. Soon as the tax rises hit the Tories are sub 40 with Labour taking a lead I think.
Which is why Tory MPs will likely vote down any budget with significant tax rises
If they do that, does is mean the end of the Johnson experiment? And of Cummings too?
And if he does not get way with tax changes, will Sunak resign?
I look forward to the reply from young HY...
No, not necessarily but Tory MPs, especially newly elected ones now see themselves as closer to US Congressmen then voting fodder ie they will put what their voters want not what No 10 and 11 wants first
And then be deselected right?
Not by their local associations no, their local parties will be right behind them.
Same problem Blair had with the over 100 Labour MPs who voted against the Iraq War, local CLPs backed them
But the party would withdraw the whip and kick them out of the party, right?
It couldn't if over 100 MPs rebelled as it would no longer have a majority and if big taxes were proposed the rebellion would be that big if not bigger
Surely more likely that Graham Brady's postman develops a hernia before it gets that far. But if Boris and Rishi are both personae non gratae, who takes over?
The Tories are above 40% because - well everyone knows tax rises are coming. People are just hoping those tax rises won't disproportionately affect them. Soon as the tax rises hit the Tories are sub 40 with Labour taking a lead I think.
Which is why Tory MPs will likely vote down any budget with significant tax rises
If they do that, does is mean the end of the Johnson experiment? And of Cummings too?
And if he does not get way with tax changes, will Sunak resign?
I look forward to the reply from young HY...
No, not necessarily but Tory MPs, especially newly elected ones now see themselves as closer to US Congressmen then voting fodder ie they will put what their voters want not what No 10 and 11 wants first
And then be deselected right?
Not by their local associations no, their local parties will be right behind them. Same problem Blair had with the over 100 Labour MPs who voted against the Iraq War, local CLPs backed them
Hang on, young HY... You are talking about the Conservative Party.... The only thing that matters is what the Great Leader wants, and I am pretty sure that Cummings will be in vengeful mode.
In the good old days, the local Conservative Association used to be a force to be reckoned with. But not now, surely?
Sorry to be obtuse, but just why is the Common Fisheries Policy so hated? Looks to me as though it's an effort to share out stocks reasonably fairly, although obviously various species of fish swim in different waters, due to temperature, food specials and so on.
Whether there is a deal or not comes down entirely to whether Johnson thinks he needs Brexit to be some kind of success or whether he reckons blaming the failure of Brexit on the EU works equally well for him.
Brexit will be a success either way.
The economic consequences of a deal or no deal are a rounding error compared to what is being done about COVID.
Experts, schmexperts. FWIW they don't agree with you. Consensus GDP predictions for Covid are -10% this year; +7% next year, ie implied Covid hit by end 2021 of -3%.
Brexit No Deal consensus is -8% on top of the 3% already lost since the referendum. ie a total Brexit hit of -11%
There is quite a lot of downside risk to both those predictions and I haven't seen studies into the conflation of both Brexit and Covid. Also both have negative consequences that go beyond economics. Particularly Brexit.
Sorry don't have time to dig out the sources.
Yes and I say -8% is complete and total bullshit.
It depends partly on whether you are talking about real or nominal GDP. The expectation is that prices will go up after Brexit due to extra costs in the UK market, which will hit real GDP. Our wages can buy less stuff.
The Tories are above 40% because - well everyone knows tax rises are coming. People are just hoping those tax rises won't disproportionately affect them. Soon as the tax rises hit the Tories are sub 40 with Labour taking a lead I think.
Which is why Tory MPs will likely vote down any budget with significant tax rises
If they do that, does is mean the end of the Johnson experiment? And of Cummings too?
And if he does not get way with tax changes, will Sunak resign?
I look forward to the reply from young HY...
No, not necessarily but Tory MPs, especially newly elected ones now see themselves as closer to US Congressmen then voting fodder ie they will put what their voters want not what No 10 and 11 wants first
Do you think that Cummings and Johnson have taken this factor into account when they go in for their war-gaming?
Hmm... I think that they might want to ask those remainers such as Philip Hammond, Oliver Letwin and Dominic Grieve how that goes.
Yes. Boris has shown from the start he means business.
What are the current regulatory barriers to doing either of those things?
This is just disingenuous claptrap.
There are still people without internet access or mobile phones. And public libraries are being closed. The barriers aren't regulatory but practical.
I wasn’t talking about the regulatory barriers to using digital cards but to buying a drink or registering with a GP. There is no barrier to any adult over 18 buying a drink. Nor to getting a doctor.
This is creating pretend problems to which they can then sell this so-called “solution”.
Sorry to be obtuse, but just why is the Common Fisheries Policy so hated? Looks to me as though it's an effort to share out stocks reasonably fairly, although obviously various species of fish swim in different waters, due to temperature, food specials and so on.
Because it shares out our stocks between multiple nations.
When else do you ever see a nation's sovereign natural resource get shared out between countries? We don't share the North Sea Oil between the whole of Europe, why do we share our fish?
Sorry to be obtuse, but just why is the Common Fisheries Policy so hated? Looks to me as though it's an effort to share out stocks reasonably fairly, although obviously various species of fish swim in different waters, due to temperature, food specials and so on.
It's also irrelevant, it literally doesn't matter to us, it makes up a fraction of our GDP. It is bizarre so much attention is given to it
The Tories are above 40% because - well everyone knows tax rises are coming. People are just hoping those tax rises won't disproportionately affect them. Soon as the tax rises hit the Tories are sub 40 with Labour taking a lead I think.
Which is why Tory MPs will likely vote down any budget with significant tax rises
If they do that, does is mean the end of the Johnson experiment? And of Cummings too?
And if he does not get way with tax changes, will Sunak resign?
I look forward to the reply from young HY...
No, not necessarily but Tory MPs, especially newly elected ones now see themselves as closer to US Congressmen then voting fodder ie they will put what their voters want not what No 10 and 11 wants first
Do you think that Cummings and Johnson have taken this factor into account when they go in for their war-gaming?
Hmm... I think that they might want to ask those remainers such as Philip Hammond, Oliver Letwin and Dominic Grieve how that goes.
And yet I imagine the reaction of those threatened with expulsion if they carried out such an action would be very different to their reaction to what happened with that lot .
The Tories are above 40% because - well everyone knows tax rises are coming. People are just hoping those tax rises won't disproportionately affect them. Soon as the tax rises hit the Tories are sub 40 with Labour taking a lead I think.
Which is why Tory MPs will likely vote down any budget with significant tax rises
If they do that, does is mean the end of the Johnson experiment? And of Cummings too?
And if he does not get way with tax changes, will Sunak resign?
I look forward to the reply from young HY...
No, not necessarily but Tory MPs, especially newly elected ones now see themselves as closer to US Congressmen then voting fodder ie they will put what their voters want not what No 10 and 11 wants first
And then be deselected right?
Not by their local associations no, their local parties will be right behind them.
Same problem Blair had with the over 100 Labour MPs who voted against the Iraq War, local CLPs backed them
But the party would withdraw the whip and kick them out of the party, right?
It couldn't if over 100 MPs rebelled as it would no longer have a majority and if big taxes were proposed the rebellion would be that big if not bigger
You are delusional. When have MPs ever voted down a budget and kept the whip? This is nonsense, you don't vote against your party on confidence or supply - no ifs or buts.
If tax rises are proposed MPs may grumble, they will brief the press, but they will go through the appropriate lobby as they have to do so.
Labour did in the Iraq War vote as the rebellion was so big they could not remove the whip from over rebel 100 MPs, if there were big tax rises the rebellion would match it, Tory MPs will not vote for political suicide in their own seats with their core voters
No, voting down a big tax rising budget which would be a left wing budget not a Tory budget anyway
Horse do you see why I call him a "blue Corbynite"? He does not represent me or the party any more than Corbynites represent you.
If you think keeping taxes low does not represent the views of most Tories you really are better off in the LDs or even Starmer Labour
I think taxes and deficits need to be kept low.
In order to keep the deficit low, which in the long term keeps taxes low, sometimes tax rises are necessary. Every Tory Chancellor worth their salt has had to increase taxes sometimes. Because sometimes its necessary - or sometimes it can balance out a tax cut elsewhere.
The Tories are above 40% because - well everyone knows tax rises are coming. People are just hoping those tax rises won't disproportionately affect them. Soon as the tax rises hit the Tories are sub 40 with Labour taking a lead I think.
Which is why Tory MPs will likely vote down any budget with significant tax rises
If they do that, does is mean the end of the Johnson experiment? And of Cummings too?
And if he does not get way with tax changes, will Sunak resign?
I look forward to the reply from young HY...
No, not necessarily but Tory MPs, especially newly elected ones now see themselves as closer to US Congressmen then voting fodder ie they will put what their voters want not what No 10 and 11 wants first
And then be deselected right?
Not by their local associations no, their local parties will be right behind them.
Same problem Blair had with the over 100 Labour MPs who voted against the Iraq War, local CLPs backed them
But the party would withdraw the whip and kick them out of the party, right?
It couldn't if over 100 MPs rebelled as it would no longer have a majority and if big taxes were proposed the rebellion would be that big if not bigger
Surely more likely that Graham Brady's postman develops a hernia before it gets that far. But if Boris and Rishi are both personae non gratae, who takes over?
Irrelevant, it would be about policy not personality, we are moving more to a US system where MPs in the legislature see themselves as separate from the executive
The Tories are above 40% because - well everyone knows tax rises are coming. People are just hoping those tax rises won't disproportionately affect them. Soon as the tax rises hit the Tories are sub 40 with Labour taking a lead I think.
Which is why Tory MPs will likely vote down any budget with significant tax rises
If they do that, does is mean the end of the Johnson experiment? And of Cummings too?
And if he does not get way with tax changes, will Sunak resign?
I look forward to the reply from young HY...
No, not necessarily but Tory MPs, especially newly elected ones now see themselves as closer to US Congressmen then voting fodder ie they will put what their voters want not what No 10 and 11 wants first
And then be deselected right?
Not by their local associations no, their local parties will be right behind them.
Same problem Blair had with the over 100 Labour MPs who voted against the Iraq War, local CLPs backed them
But the party would withdraw the whip and kick them out of the party, right?
It couldn't if over 100 MPs rebelled as it would no longer have a majority and if big taxes were proposed the rebellion would be that big if not bigger
You are delusional. When have MPs ever voted down a budget and kept the whip? This is nonsense, you don't vote against your party on confidence or supply - no ifs or buts.
If tax rises are proposed MPs may grumble, they will brief the press, but they will go through the appropriate lobby as they have to do so.
Labour did in the Iraq War vote as the rebellion was so big they could not remove the whip from over rebel 100 MPs, if there were big tax rises the rebellion would match it, Tory MPs will not vote for political suicide in their own seats with their core voters
The Iraq War rebellion wasn't a confidence and supply issue.
The Tories are above 40% because - well everyone knows tax rises are coming. People are just hoping those tax rises won't disproportionately affect them. Soon as the tax rises hit the Tories are sub 40 with Labour taking a lead I think.
Which is why Tory MPs will likely vote down any budget with significant tax rises
If they do that, does is mean the end of the Johnson experiment? And of Cummings too?
And if he does not get way with tax changes, will Sunak resign?
I look forward to the reply from young HY...
No, not necessarily but Tory MPs, especially newly elected ones now see themselves as closer to US Congressmen then voting fodder ie they will put what their voters want not what No 10 and 11 wants first
And then be deselected right?
Not by their local associations no, their local parties will be right behind them. Same problem Blair had with the over 100 Labour MPs who voted against the Iraq War, local CLPs backed them
Hang on, young HY... You are talking about the Conservative Party.... The only thing that matters is what the Great Leader wants, and I am pretty sure that Cummings will be in vengeful mode.
In the good old days, the local Conservative Association used to be a force to be reckoned with. But not now, surely?
The local Association selects the candidates and provides the groundtroops, Cummings will be told to sod off if he tried to impose a tax rising candidate on them
Just seen some new forecasts come through for Q3. City consensus looks like 17%, European and American banks closer to 15%, UK banks (and UK branches of European banks) closer to 20%. There isn't usually such a big spread but I think European banks especially have underestimated the scale of WFH in the UK and are misunderstanding the real-time indicators showing that public transport use is still only 55% of the prior year.
One of our guys thinks that the £500m EOTHO spend has got close to a 9x economic multiplier based on transaction data we've received from POS and merchant services companies. He says it's the single most successful economic policy of the last 50 years. He thinks the chancellor should extend it for non franchise restaurants with 50 or fewer locations until the end of the year, essentially locking out the big chains like McDonalds and KFC but allowing smaller chains and independents to continue benefiting. It would also cut the cost of the policy by 50-60%.
July GDP data is going to be a very big day for the UK, it should show that the UK is currently the fastest growing global economy and is having the best bounceback and give us a sense of where we're headed by December.
I presume we have another week or so to wait for that?
Found the data on transport usage -
Food for thought among the London centric, I think
Wow so pretty much back at 100% for most of the country.
And people were claiming here yesterday that Boris was lying for saying that huge numbers of people had gone back to work. I said here that the roads seem as busy as they were preCOVID and this demonstrates it.
The country exists outside of London not that you'd know it from people saying "look at this empty Tube, nobody is working!"
But the buses are empty in the bits of Islington that Guardian columnists aspire to live in.
Not many journalists can realistically aspire to live in Islington. You need to have serious inherited wealth to live there, like Dominic Cummings or Boris Johnson* * until his wife threw him out.
But they go to the pubs there and dream. And then go and write columns on the horrors of living in zone 4.
Do they? I've never read one. Don't understand why anyone would want to live north of the river anyway.
I'd have to dig - there was a hilarious one, not long ago, about how the writer felt his precious middle class status was slipping. He could only afford to live in a flat in a "bad" area, and his daughter was speaking in a "common" accent, picked up at the local school.
Even he was trying to justify staying in London - he was a writer and had no actual desk to go to.....
Sorry to be obtuse, but just why is the Common Fisheries Policy so hated? Looks to me as though it's an effort to share out stocks reasonably fairly, although obviously various species of fish swim in different waters, due to temperature, food specials and so on.
It's also irrelevant, it literally doesn't matter to us, it makes up a fraction of our GDP. It is bizarre so much attention is given to it
If its irrelevant then the EU have no reason to keep pressing the issue and can drop it and move on.
The Tories are above 40% because - well everyone knows tax rises are coming. People are just hoping those tax rises won't disproportionately affect them. Soon as the tax rises hit the Tories are sub 40 with Labour taking a lead I think.
Which is why Tory MPs will likely vote down any budget with significant tax rises
If they do that, does is mean the end of the Johnson experiment? And of Cummings too?
And if he does not get way with tax changes, will Sunak resign?
I look forward to the reply from young HY...
No, not necessarily but Tory MPs, especially newly elected ones now see themselves as closer to US Congressmen then voting fodder ie they will put what their voters want not what No 10 and 11 wants first
And then be deselected right?
Not by their local associations no, their local parties will be right behind them.
Same problem Blair had with the over 100 Labour MPs who voted against the Iraq War, local CLPs backed them
But the party would withdraw the whip and kick them out of the party, right?
It couldn't if over 100 MPs rebelled as it would no longer have a majority and if big taxes were proposed the rebellion would be that big if not bigger
You are delusional. When have MPs ever voted down a budget and kept the whip? This is nonsense, you don't vote against your party on confidence or supply - no ifs or buts.
If tax rises are proposed MPs may grumble, they will brief the press, but they will go through the appropriate lobby as they have to do so.
Labour did in the Iraq War vote as the rebellion was so big they could not remove the whip from over rebel 100 MPs, if there were big tax rises the rebellion would match it, Tory MPs will not vote for political suicide in their own seats with their core voters
The Iraq War rebellion wasn't a confidence and supply issue.
The Tories are above 40% because - well everyone knows tax rises are coming. People are just hoping those tax rises won't disproportionately affect them. Soon as the tax rises hit the Tories are sub 40 with Labour taking a lead I think.
Which is why Tory MPs will likely vote down any budget with significant tax rises
If they do that, does is mean the end of the Johnson experiment? And of Cummings too?
And if he does not get way with tax changes, will Sunak resign?
I look forward to the reply from young HY...
No, not necessarily but Tory MPs, especially newly elected ones now see themselves as closer to US Congressmen then voting fodder ie they will put what their voters want not what No 10 and 11 wants first
Do you think that Cummings and Johnson have taken this factor into account when they go in for their war-gaming?
Hmm... I think that they might want to ask those remainers such as Philip Hammond, Oliver Letwin and Dominic Grieve how that goes.
And yet I imagine the reaction of those threatened with expulsion if they carried out such an action would be very different to their reaction to what happened with that lot .
Possibly. Getting elected on a policy of implementing Brexit and then paralysing it for more than 2 years was at the outer edges of extremism.
A Tory pointing out that there was nothing in the manifesto about increasing taxes has a better case.
FWIW I think that the plan will be to get us back on a road to economic stability so that the debt/GDP ratio can improve over time so immediate large tax rises are not going to be necessary.
Noting the prior discussion on UK Q3 GDP growth, worth pointing out that growth in Q3 is mostly a function of how big the decline in GDP was in Q2 (ie the deeper the hole, the bigger is the climb out of it). Recall that UK GDP fell 20% in Q2, vs 9% in the US, 8% in Japan and 12% in the euro area. So yes, we should get some strong data for July next Friday and for Q3 as a whole (I currently expect 16% for Q3) but don't kid yourself that this is anything to crow about.
If Trump does win in the EC, but loses the national vote by 2-3%, how sustainable is this? In a national vote for a national president, with effectively a 2 party system, that the party that keeps getting millions fewer votes keeps winning?
Add to that the gerrymandered House and Senate, and the highly political judiciary stuffed with increasingly out of touch with majority opinion ultra-conservative judges - isn't it a recipe for the disenfranchised majority getting extremely pissed off?
It's entirely sustainable. The Democrats if that happens will need to target states other than California.
That is the system working by design and not a flaw.
It IS a flaw, and plenty of Americans hate it quite understandably. The fact that you think it is a good system doesn't make it one. None of the better democracies use such a stupid system, and I don't see any country racing to copy it. That might tell you something.
We use an equivalent one in the U.K.
Fundamentally it represents communities not individuals.
You disagree. Fine. But it’s not stupid
The Electoral College is stupid (if you like it, fine, but it is still stupid). And we do not use an equivalent one in the UK.
I agree. The electoral college is stupid. I don't know anybody who would set it up as it is now if they were starting from scratch.
Our electoral system is not perfect either, as constituencies are not equal-sized. The Outer Hebridies has 21k and the Isle of Wight has 105k. So an OH vote is worth 5x what an Isle of Wight vote is worth.
But Wyoming has one EC vote per 190k people while CA has one per 1.4m, a 7x disparity. So our system is better, from tha point of view.
If we finally get around to eqalising constituency sizes, of course, that's another matter.
Even if constituency sizes were equalised, most votes would still be worth absolutely nothing under the wretched FPTP.
The Tories are above 40% because - well everyone knows tax rises are coming. People are just hoping those tax rises won't disproportionately affect them. Soon as the tax rises hit the Tories are sub 40 with Labour taking a lead I think.
Which is why Tory MPs will likely vote down any budget with significant tax rises
If they do that, does is mean the end of the Johnson experiment? And of Cummings too?
And if he does not get way with tax changes, will Sunak resign?
I look forward to the reply from young HY...
No, not necessarily but Tory MPs, especially newly elected ones now see themselves as closer to US Congressmen then voting fodder ie they will put what their voters want not what No 10 and 11 wants first
And then be deselected right?
Not by their local associations no, their local parties will be right behind them.
Same problem Blair had with the over 100 Labour MPs who voted against the Iraq War, local CLPs backed them
But the party would withdraw the whip and kick them out of the party, right?
It couldn't if over 100 MPs rebelled as it would no longer have a majority and if big taxes were proposed the rebellion would be that big if not bigger
You are delusional. When have MPs ever voted down a budget and kept the whip? This is nonsense, you don't vote against your party on confidence or supply - no ifs or buts.
If tax rises are proposed MPs may grumble, they will brief the press, but they will go through the appropriate lobby as they have to do so.
Labour did in the Iraq War vote as the rebellion was so big they could not remove the whip from over rebel 100 MPs, if there were big tax rises the rebellion would match it, Tory MPs will not vote for political suicide in their own seats with their core voters
The Iraq War rebellion wasn't a confidence and supply issue.
The budget is.
Not in itself
WHAT!?
What do you think the "supply" in "confidence and supply" refers to?
No, voting down a big tax rising budget which would be a left wing budget not a Tory budget anyway
Horse do you see why I call him a "blue Corbynite"? He does not represent me or the party any more than Corbynites represent you.
If you think keeping taxes low does not represent the views of most Tories you really are better off in the LDs or even Starmer Labour
I think taxes and deficits need to be kept low.
In order to keep the deficit low, which in the long term keeps taxes low, sometimes tax rises are necessary. Every Tory Chancellor worth their salt has had to increase taxes sometimes. Because sometimes its necessary - or sometimes it can balance out a tax cut elsewhere.
The Tory manifesto promised not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT, certainly if any of those were raised the rebellion from Tory MPs would be triple figures
The Tories are above 40% because - well everyone knows tax rises are coming. People are just hoping those tax rises won't disproportionately affect them. Soon as the tax rises hit the Tories are sub 40 with Labour taking a lead I think.
Which is why Tory MPs will likely vote down any budget with significant tax rises
If they do that, does is mean the end of the Johnson experiment? And of Cummings too?
And if he does not get way with tax changes, will Sunak resign?
I look forward to the reply from young HY...
No, not necessarily but Tory MPs, especially newly elected ones now see themselves as closer to US Congressmen then voting fodder ie they will put what their voters want not what No 10 and 11 wants first
And then be deselected right?
Not by their local associations no, their local parties will be right behind them. Same problem Blair had with the over 100 Labour MPs who voted against the Iraq War, local CLPs backed them
Hang on, young HY... You are talking about the Conservative Party.... The only thing that matters is what the Great Leader wants, and I am pretty sure that Cummings will be in vengeful mode.
In the good old days, the local Conservative Association used to be a force to be reckoned with. But not now, surely?
The local Association selects the candidates and provides the groundtroops, Cummings will be told to sod off if he tried to impose a tax rising candidate on them
Remember back to May losing votes by majorities of 200 or so ? She always won the confidence votes. They're almost impossible for Governments to lose. Corbyn was the only one with rebels in those.
No, voting down a big tax rising budget which would be a left wing budget not a Tory budget anyway
Horse do you see why I call him a "blue Corbynite"? He does not represent me or the party any more than Corbynites represent you.
If you think keeping taxes low does not represent the views of most Tories you really are better off in the LDs or even Starmer Labour
I think taxes and deficits need to be kept low.
In order to keep the deficit low, which in the long term keeps taxes low, sometimes tax rises are necessary. Every Tory Chancellor worth their salt has had to increase taxes sometimes. Because sometimes its necessary - or sometimes it can balance out a tax cut elsewhere.
The Tory manifesto promised not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT, certainly if any of those were raised the rebellion from Tory MPs would be triple figures
The Government will want to stick to that plan but if they deem a tax rise necessary then it will be voted for by anyone holding the whip and anyone who doesn't would lose the whip.
Just seen some new forecasts come through for Q3. City consensus looks like 17%, European and American banks closer to 15%, UK banks (and UK branches of European banks) closer to 20%. There isn't usually such a big spread but I think European banks especially have underestimated the scale of WFH in the UK and are misunderstanding the real-time indicators showing that public transport use is still only 55% of the prior year.
One of our guys thinks that the £500m EOTHO spend has got close to a 9x economic multiplier based on transaction data we've received from POS and merchant services companies. He says it's the single most successful economic policy of the last 50 years. He thinks the chancellor should extend it for non franchise restaurants with 50 or fewer locations until the end of the year, essentially locking out the big chains like McDonalds and KFC but allowing smaller chains and independents to continue benefiting. It would also cut the cost of the policy by 50-60%.
July GDP data is going to be a very big day for the UK, it should show that the UK is currently the fastest growing global economy and is having the best bounceback and give us a sense of where we're headed by December.
I presume we have another week or so to wait for that?
Found the data on transport usage -
Food for thought among the London centric, I think
Wow so pretty much back at 100% for most of the country.
And people were claiming here yesterday that Boris was lying for saying that huge numbers of people had gone back to work. I said here that the roads seem as busy as they were preCOVID and this demonstrates it.
The country exists outside of London not that you'd know it from people saying "look at this empty Tube, nobody is working!"
But the buses are empty in the bits of Islington that Guardian columnists aspire to live in.
Not many journalists can realistically aspire to live in Islington. You need to have serious inherited wealth to live there, like Dominic Cummings or Boris Johnson* * until his wife threw him out.
But they go to the pubs there and dream. And then go and write columns on the horrors of living in zone 4.
Do they? I've never read one. Don't understand why anyone would want to live north of the river anyway.
I'd have to dig - there was a hilarious one, not long ago, about how the writer felt his precious middle class status was slipping. He could only afford to live in a flat in a "bad" area, and his daughter was speaking in a "common" accent, picked up at the local school.
Even he was trying to justify staying in London - he was a writer and had no actual desk to go to.....
Ha ha my son is full on South London - innit tho fam.
The Tories are above 40% because - well everyone knows tax rises are coming. People are just hoping those tax rises won't disproportionately affect them. Soon as the tax rises hit the Tories are sub 40 with Labour taking a lead I think.
Which is why Tory MPs will likely vote down any budget with significant tax rises
If they do that, does is mean the end of the Johnson experiment? And of Cummings too?
And if he does not get way with tax changes, will Sunak resign?
I look forward to the reply from young HY...
No, not necessarily but Tory MPs, especially newly elected ones now see themselves as closer to US Congressmen then voting fodder ie they will put what their voters want not what No 10 and 11 wants first
And then be deselected right?
Not by their local associations no, their local parties will be right behind them.
Same problem Blair had with the over 100 Labour MPs who voted against the Iraq War, local CLPs backed them
But the party would withdraw the whip and kick them out of the party, right?
It couldn't if over 100 MPs rebelled as it would no longer have a majority and if big taxes were proposed the rebellion would be that big if not bigger
You are delusional. When have MPs ever voted down a budget and kept the whip? This is nonsense, you don't vote against your party on confidence or supply - no ifs or buts.
If tax rises are proposed MPs may grumble, they will brief the press, but they will go through the appropriate lobby as they have to do so.
Labour did in the Iraq War vote as the rebellion was so big they could not remove the whip from over rebel 100 MPs, if there were big tax rises the rebellion would match it, Tory MPs will not vote for political suicide in their own seats with their core voters
The Iraq War rebellion wasn't a confidence and supply issue.
The budget is.
Not in itself
WHAT!?
What do you think the "supply" in "confidence and supply" refers to?
Legally a loss of supply is still not a vote of confidence, the government can then amend the budget, if it loses a vote of no confidence however an election has to be called by the monarch
The Tories are above 40% because - well everyone knows tax rises are coming. People are just hoping those tax rises won't disproportionately affect them. Soon as the tax rises hit the Tories are sub 40 with Labour taking a lead I think.
Which is why Tory MPs will likely vote down any budget with significant tax rises
If they do that, does is mean the end of the Johnson experiment? And of Cummings too?
And if he does not get way with tax changes, will Sunak resign?
I look forward to the reply from young HY...
No, not necessarily but Tory MPs, especially newly elected ones now see themselves as closer to US Congressmen then voting fodder ie they will put what their voters want not what No 10 and 11 wants first
Do you think that Cummings and Johnson have taken this factor into account when they go in for their war-gaming?
Hmm... I think that they might want to ask those remainers such as Philip Hammond, Oliver Letwin and Dominic Grieve how that goes.
And yet I imagine the reaction of those threatened with expulsion if they carried out such an action would be very different to their reaction to what happened with that lot .
Possibly. Getting elected on a policy of implementing Brexit and then paralysing it for more than 2 years was at the outer edges of extremism.
A Tory pointing out that there was nothing in the manifesto about increasing taxes has a better case.
FWIW I think that the plan will be to get us back on a road to economic stability so that the debt/GDP ratio can improve over time so immediate large tax rises are not going to be necessary.
I agree wholeheartedly.
I doubt large tax rises are necessary, I doubt they'll be productive. But if Sunak thinks there's a need to do one - and likely it might be things like cleaning up exemptions to raise money without raising rates if he does - then anyone who holds the whip would have to vote for it.
The only way for anyone who holds the whip to avoid voting for it would be to send a letter to Mr Brady. But unless that succeeds, if it comes to a vote on the Budget the rules are clear - vote for the Budget or lose the whip. Twas always thus.
Comments
And if he does not get way with tax changes, will Sunak resign?
I look forward to the reply from young HY...
I'm not in favour of this Orwellian sounding system, however, I'd be surprised if it could be implemented under current data rules.
I think human trials with at least one intranasal vaccine are planned this autumn.
The economic consequences of a deal or no deal are a rounding error compared to what is being done about COVID.
As for ID cards, the reasons government want them is because they want the data, to monitor and surveil us and, most likely to monetise and sell it.
And as far as my data is concerned, they can fuck right off.
I was against Blair’s monstrous ID cards idea and I’m not going to go for this Brexit-Tory one either.
The Tories will vote through Sunak's budget, whatever it is. And if there are tax changes then HYUFD will be cheering them on, whatever they are.
https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1301048452672040961?s=21
Similarly when Bush Snr broke his 'read my lips, no new taxes pledge' plenty of Bush 1988 voters switched to Clinton or Perot in 1992 and Bush was beaten
* until his wife threw him out.
I agree it was his high point. Genuine leadership. In short supply right now, unfortunately.
Of course, do you know who else was also an extremely talented politician?
Austerity!
If the UK signs up to a deal that signs away our control then Brexit will be a failure. If the UK doesn't then Brexit will be a success - even if GDP is 0.1% lower.
And some of those people need government services more than most (the unemployed, homeless, mentally ill, etc.
Brexit No Deal consensus is -8% on top of the 3% already lost since the referendum. ie a total Brexit hit of -11%
There is quite a lot of downside risk to both those predictions and I haven't seen studies into the conflation of both Brexit and Covid. Also both have negative consequences that go beyond economics. Particularly Brexit.
Sorry don't have time to dig out the sources.
Same problem Blair had with the over 100 Labour MPs who voted against the Iraq War, local CLPs backed them
https://twitter.com/Jackson_Carlaw/status/1301144927531945985?s=20
https://twitter.com/HeatherWheeler/status/1301151182627500035?s=20
They wouldn't have the Tory whip after voting down the budget. 🙄
Voting down a Tory budget, are you mad
No MP votes down their government's budget and keeps the whip. He does go off on delusions sometimes.
If tax rises are proposed MPs may grumble, they will brief the press, but they will go through the appropriate lobby as they have to do so.
In the good old days, the local Conservative Association used to be a force to be reckoned with. But not now, surely?
This is creating pretend problems to which they can then sell this so-called “solution”.
When else do you ever see a nation's sovereign natural resource get shared out between countries? We don't share the North Sea Oil between the whole of Europe, why do we share our fish?
In order to keep the deficit low, which in the long term keeps taxes low, sometimes tax rises are necessary. Every Tory Chancellor worth their salt has had to increase taxes sometimes. Because sometimes its necessary - or sometimes it can balance out a tax cut elsewhere.
The budget is.
Even he was trying to justify staying in London - he was a writer and had no actual desk to go to.....
But you are right, the Corbynites no longer represent me. The majority of Labour MPs and members represent me, we voted for Keir in a landslide
A Tory pointing out that there was nothing in the manifesto about increasing taxes has a better case.
FWIW I think that the plan will be to get us back on a road to economic stability so that the debt/GDP ratio can improve over time so immediate large tax rises are not going to be necessary.
What do you think the "supply" in "confidence and supply" refers to?
https://www.conservatives.com/our-plan
https://twitter.com/MrJohnNicolson/status/1301126412833820673?s=20
She always won the confidence votes. They're almost impossible for Governments to lose. Corbyn was the only one with rebels in those.
The Government will want to stick to that plan but if they deem a tax rise necessary then it will be voted for by anyone holding the whip and anyone who doesn't would lose the whip.
Headline - 7
7 days - 5
Yesterday - 1
I doubt large tax rises are necessary, I doubt they'll be productive. But if Sunak thinks there's a need to do one - and likely it might be things like cleaning up exemptions to raise money without raising rates if he does - then anyone who holds the whip would have to vote for it.
The only way for anyone who holds the whip to avoid voting for it would be to send a letter to Mr Brady. But unless that succeeds, if it comes to a vote on the Budget the rules are clear - vote for the Budget or lose the whip. Twas always thus.