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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Poll of US servicemen and women finds Trump has lost the Milit
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Poll of US servicemen and women finds Trump has lost the Military vote. Biden has a 4% lead
Given some of the noises coming from the Oval Office at the moment this poll of men and women serving in the US military could be hugely significant for Trump who seems to have lost the support of active service troops.
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Biden 1.99
Dem 1.96
Trump 2.04
Rep 2.02
What's that about? Back in the day, we'd have started next week; never the 1st September. (Sorry for going all England-centric on pb!)
The neatest result, and the one which will despatch Trump from the Oval Office without further social media circus, would be a convincing Biden victory and I'm beginning to think it will happen.
I am backing the Trump EV market band of 180-209, which still seems value at 8.4
In normal times that would be mad, but then you hear them both speak yesterday.
That and people have bought into the narrative that Trump will rig the election or refuse to go if he loses, which means the polls don’t count.
She really needs her alone time and has found this lockdown very hard. I suspect that there is many like her.
However, the question has to be: why are so many people killed by police in the US (around 1,200 a year) compared to - say - the UK (1 in 2018, 3 in 2019)?
Most of the difference, obviously, is due to more people having guns in the US. But there's also a culture of militarisation of the police that has led to increasing death at the hands of law enforcement, even when the overall murder rate has dropped dramatically.
At least that seems to be the pattern, looking at things world-wide.
A 46% rise in the attainment gap as we acknowledge that most schools didn't even get off the ground in terms of remote learning. You can be a bit cynical about the percentage and how it is measured but there is no doubt that the majority of schools failed the majority of pupils over the summer term and have done nothing since.
There seems a consensus that the exams will have to be delayed but very little constructive thought about what happens from there in terms of University applications and entrance. As my son will be going to University at the end of this school year I am watching with a fair degree of apprehension.
If you arm a body and give them cool black kit to wear then that is militarisation isn't it? Or are you talking about the SWAT teams and special units?
The militarisation of the police is definitely a newer phenomenon, although which is the cause and which is the effect from the war on drugs is difficult to work out. The gangs are certainly heavily armed. (We can also observe this in the U.K., look at how police uniform has become much more military-looking over the years).
There’s also still one police officer killed every week in the line of duty, it’s a disproportionately dangerous job to do.
https://www.fbi.gov/news/pressrel/press-releases/fbi-releases-2019-statistics-on-law-enforcement-officers-killed-in-the-line-of-duty
If they’d done this year’s exams as scheduled, or slightly delayed, the story would have been how disadvantaged students were ‘denied’ ‘their’ place at university, because the private schools and top Acadamies could offer distance learning and everyone had a computer.
Polls here have become unreliable is that the case in US too?
https://twitter.com/johngansjr/status/1300584075137347584?s=21
Mind you the UK and US have very different rules on what is fair during an election.
In peasantry time the whole family unit worked. Even as you transition to 17th 18th centruty Those deaths include things like crashing while driving the patrol car, not during a chase.
One of the biggest improvements in police officer deaths in America was the introduction of mandatory seat belts.
Methinks Mr Cole lives 'upstairs'.
This thoughtful article in the Atlantic lays out one stark example:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/08/kyle-rittenhouse-kenosha-and-sheepdog-mentality/615805/
... But the videos themselves are insidious. Most people in the United States, allowing for wild variation in race, class, and education, are victims of violence only very rarely. Watching the videos, however, invites you to simulate violence at an extraordinary rate, much higher than we are mentally equipped to manage. (Correia himself has seen tens of thousands of them, and he posts a new one to his channel about once or twice a day.) The effect of these videos is to habituate viewers to that violence, to train them to imagine themselves in it. Training yourself to imagine something makes it seem more likely to happen, and primes your instincts to react to it—and, I suspect, initiate that violent reaction and overdo it when circumstances could be resolved more peacefully...
For example, this quite obviously has nothing to do with fearing for personal safety:
I Was a U.S. Diplomat. Customs and Border Protection Only Cared That I Was Black.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/30/black-us-diplomat-customs-border-protection-cbp-detained-harassed-325676
https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1300335931887677440?s=09
https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1300338250377289730?s=09
The words Thick as Mince spring to mind.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/health/coronavirus-testing.html?referringSource=articleShare
Trump’s route to 270 looks very much like it did last time, a lot of small wins in marginal middle states, while Biden piles them high in California and New York. Florida is still the key, if that flips to Biden he’s pretty much home.
Biden is currently 4.6% ahead in Minnesota which would be the current tipping point state (538 polling averages), the other important swing states are similar (Pennsylvania 4.7%, Florida 4.5%).
1. 4.6% ahead in polling should make you favourite, but a 4.6% polling lead at the end of August isn't terribly predictive of the result, so should only make Biden slight favourite.
2. Against that, there is the fact that the last 3 times the incumbent president has won a second term. It's a small sample but it counts for something.
3. The possibility that the economy (and the pandemic) will be doing relatively a lot better than now by November so Trump's polling will improve.
4. The speculation that the law and order issue will help Trump. It might not, but it might.
5. The momentum right now in the polls is towards Trump.
6. The possibility that the campaign will help Trump: effective social media, willingness to play dirty, Biden making gaffes, some mud thrown at Biden will stick. Trump's gaffe's and scandals are already priced in.
7. The possibility that Republican voter suppression will be more effective than ever.
All of those things are more or less speculative, but I can see the idea that one or more of them might turn out to be true is enough to overcome the small advantage that Biden gets for being about 5% ahead in the polls this far away from the election.
Personally, I give Trump less than 50% chance, not because Biden is effectively 5% ahead in the polls. But because the polls are pretty stable and there don't seem to be many undecideds. Looking again, for example, at the Minnesota 538 polling average, Biden is on 50% and hasn't been on less than 49.6% on the whole graph (starting May 19).
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/minnesota/
The approval ratings also seem to show that most people made up their minds about Trump a long time ago:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
especially if you scroll down and see how stable his negative ratings have been through his whole presidency compared to all other presidents since WW2.
A prescient article about Trump from 2016 but relevant to this year’s election. Also its analysis of how democracy can evolve into tyranny is pertinent here.
https://twitter.com/m_clem/status/1300636070816681984
Nonetheless Biden's poll lead is clear and consistent, and not altering beyond MoE over the last months.
Law and Order may not play better with the public than it does with the military. At the time of the poll tax riots, Kinnock led Thatcher by as much as 25% for example.
https://tinyurl.com/rashford
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-minnesota-could-be-the-next-midwestern-state-to-go-red/
As with the charming story of the US Diplomat harassed into unhealth by her own border officials for the crime of being an uppity black woman who doesn't know her place, the sight of people being stopped from voting by armed gangs backed by the President will demonstrate that America truly is the greatest country the world has ever known.
They will both make it.
[Amusingly, I've just laid Hillary for Next President at 300s for a few f
quid - for some, it seems hope springs eternal..]
"2. Against that, there is the fact that the last 3 times the incumbent president has won a second term. It's a small sample but it counts for something."
which is blatant cherry picking.
Cherry picking the other way you get 4 out of the last 7 incumbent presidents have won which is not nearly so impressive.
But the biggest problem with this argument is that this is a fixed "incumbency bonus" which is constant and is already included in the current poll results.
Overall though, I agree that the betting markets are probably (implicitly) assuming a high variance over the coming months, ie the polls and final results could still move quite a lot. I just don't get how it can be evens though, when all sensible "nowcast" analysis predicts a Biden win/good probability for Biden to win.
It's why I really want Biden to focus on the rust belt and thumping him in the swing states.
They know he will rig this election, refuse to go and there is a good chance that as the DOJ and so on are in his control, in the end there is nothing Biden will be able to do. The counting will stop. The ballots will be declared void. The harder end of Dems supporters will take to the streets and of course Trump will need to crack down on them with all he has at his command.
Given how precarious the situation is politically I have absolutely no idea why the US stock market is doing so well. Even in ordinary political times it tends to get a bit nervous near hand over of power. Now we have no idea whether a proper democratic election will even take place.
Kwasi, Kemi, Bim or James Cleverly would all have a better chance.
It comes off if Biden wins PV + EC or if Trump wins PV + EC.
Biden to win EC (only) is ~1.95.
So the only additional possibilities your bet covers are Trump winning PV + EC.
That doesn't seem very likely to me, and certainly not a 13% chance.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/27/the-10-most-dangerous-jobs-in-america-according-to-bls-data.html
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/money/careers/2018/01/09/workplace-fatalities-25-most-dangerous-jobs-america/1002500001/
As to sources. The second had police at number 14 and even then less than half the recorded fatalities were death by being shot which was 46 out of 102. Roughly in line with your link.
If Trump claims "boxes stuffed with fake Biden votes" he can't just over turn a result. That is a matter for the state and possibly the Supreme Court. While the members sitting on the Supreme Court are partisan they still work within the evidence available and the applicable laws. They will need to see a hell of a lot more evidence than a rumour in Florida of vote suffing retweeted by the president.
When it comes to Trump having the military on his side or not that is irrelveant (other than the votes they cast at the ballot box). Anyone who thinks that in the USA the military will keep a president in office despite having been voted out, or will support a "Democrat coup" if Trump refuses to go, are living in Lala-Land.
He's probably got 15 years at least until he's in a leadership contending position, at the earliest.
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1300703630010572802
Hillary should be 1000/1
The reason he cheats is that he thinks everyone else cheats.
He carries this line of thought into everything he does. The reason he rips off his contractors is he thinks they are trying to rip him off.
I have absolute confidence that Trump really. Does think the Dems will be ballot stuffing and fraudulently voting. And as a result he will be looking for ways to do it himself.
I would like to put some money on the "discovery" that empty office space won't just bankrupt some EvulToryDonors - that lots of low wage earners, from the poor parts of cities have just had their jobs evaporate.
He hasn't tweeted for several weeks and I know he was heading into hospital for some tests.
A few of us are concerned.
Please let me know or DM me.
And there are currently dozens of lawsuits over who can vote, how people can vote etc, many of them are listed here:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/how-to-vote-2020/