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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,608

    Dems starting to panic about complacency factor.

    https://twitter.com/donwinslow/status/1299836495092527105?s=21
    How do you market a near 80-year old guy, whose onset of dementia at least has one benefit - that of people forgetting how creepy he used to be?

    Way to go Dems - you are going to inflict 4 more years of Trump on the planet.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    The

    kle4 said:

    I must say that the imminent american election, with all the bitterness and dodgy dealing, suddenly felt like the wrong time for me to have read a trilogy set during the fall of the Roman Republic. Far too tempting to see signs of terminal decline in institutions as a result.

    I was doing my usual browse through the latest reports of doom and disaster in the newspapers earlier this week, and chanced upon an article about Stoicism and the writings of the Emperor Marcus Aurelius. I've now ordered a copy of the Meditations and an accompanying analysis.

    If the world is going to shit (well, we know it's going to shit, it's merely a question of how badly) then thinking about how to endure disasters that are almost entirely out of one's own control would seem wise.
    I don't agree that it's going to shit at all - it's moving forward as it always has done.
    When someone tells you the world is going to shit, it's fun to ask them what year they would like to be transported back to. Maybe they would have been happier before the end of rationing, or the elimination of smallpox, or the discovery of penicillin. Or maybe they would have liked 1919, or 1649, or maybe the fun and laughter of 1347 ? Presumably longer life, modern medicine, travel and education mean little besides the warm comfort of 'the good old days'.

    So come on folks, what year would you *really* like to be living in?
    Not much of an argument, though. For one thing, we've all had the misfortune to be born before the elimination of cancer, or for that matter covid-19. Neither fact keeps me awake at night. For another, "is going to shit" doesn't imply that we have got there yet. Since the second world war tens of millions of people at least have lived in conditions where, yes, flipping back to any of the dates you mention couldn't have made things worse. How do you know we aren't headed that way?
    I'm not sure that you comprehend the levels of progress that human society have made. The homeless on the street have better medical care and life expectancy than Kings of England in the range of dates above.

    Have you ever seen the following?

    https://ourworldindata.org/exports/GDP-per-capita-in-the-uk-since-1270_v6_850x600.svg
    Thought experiment: imagine advancing that argument in Cambodia in 1976, Rwanda in 1994, China in 1960, ...
  • Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    "this is the sort of behaviour you’d expect from Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings"

    Not really, since those two seem pretty good at winning elections.

    I'm talking about being petulant towards people who disagree with them, for example Julian Lewis.
    This is pretty standard behaviour for politicians isn't it?

    May got rid of Osborne when she got in and Gordon Brown wasn't exactly shy of getting rid of people he didn't like.
    They sacked them. They didn’t expel them from the party.

    It was pure spite by the PM. Contrast it with how he defends others who break the rules - https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/07/16/spotting-the-difference-what-really-matters-to-johnson-when-deciding-who-is-in-or-out/.
    Major expelled everyone who didn't vote for Maastricht. How is that any different at all to Boris expelling those who didn't vote for his deal in the last Parliament?
    Cyclefree agreed with Major
    It is not actually true, is it?
    It is true.
    Who are we talking about then? A number of Maastricht rebels had the whip withdrawn but were back in time for the election.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maastricht_Rebels#Rebels_who_had_whip_withdrawn
    Rupert Allason was the only one who abstained when it was a confidence vote (and he was overseas) and he had the whip removed for a year as a result. No other MPs rebelled in that vote and none at all voted with the opposition.

    The 20 or so who voted with the opposition when Boris repeated Major's trick were more extreme than even the likes of Bill Cash etc who with Maastricht refused to rebel at that point.
    So Major sacked no MPs?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599
    dr_spyn said:
    It seems a bit partial to target him in particular.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    @Andy_JS

    It does look rather like a case of rounding up one of the usual suspects.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482
    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Charles said:

    You are saying he should have got what he wanted with no consequences.

    I anticipate with relish the day BoZo reaps the consequences of "getting what he wanted"...
    You might be happier if you didn't spend so much of your time wishing misfortune on an individual or set of individuals.
    Don’t be silly. Learning that your actions have consequences for you is essential to becoming a functioning adult.

    Having a 55-year old man with the moral maturity of a 5-year old as our PM is our misfortune not his.

    The

    kle4 said:

    I must say that the imminent american election, with all the bitterness and dodgy dealing, suddenly felt like the wrong time for me to have read a trilogy set during the fall of the Roman Republic. Far too tempting to see signs of terminal decline in institutions as a result.

    I was doing my usual browse through the latest reports of doom and disaster in the newspapers earlier this week, and chanced upon an article about Stoicism and the writings of the Emperor Marcus Aurelius. I've now ordered a copy of the Meditations and an accompanying analysis.

    If the world is going to shit (well, we know it's going to shit, it's merely a question of how badly) then thinking about how to endure disasters that are almost entirely out of one's own control would seem wise.
    I don't agree that it's going to shit at all - it's moving forward as it always has done.
    When someone tells you the world is going to shit, it's fun to ask them what year they would like to be transported back to. Maybe they would have been happier before the end of rationing, or the elimination of smallpox, or the discovery of penicillin. Or maybe they would have liked 1919, or 1649, or maybe the fun and laughter of 1347 ? Presumably longer life, modern medicine, travel and education mean little besides the warm comfort of 'the good old days'.

    So come on folks, what year would you *really* like to be living in?
    At this point I’d take 2015 and pray like mad that various actors here, in Europe and in the US took different decisions.....
    I'm not being silly. Regardless of the situation, it is foolish to invest time and attention on a perceived unhappy state of affairs that you cannot control.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Scott_xP said:
    Looks like the kite flying mission is going fully to plan. Get all the moaning and complaining out in the open; see which bits don't get the full double barrel; count the malcontents and size up the Commons majority.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599
    dr_spyn said:

    @Andy_JS

    It does look rather like a case of rounding up one of the usual suspects.

    Whether someone gets fined shouldn't depend on the merits of why they're protesting, to state the obvious.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Andy_JS said:

    dr_spyn said:
    It seems a bit partial to target him in particular.
    I'm sure his brother can do another crowdfund campaign.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited August 2020
    Will The Met use that fixed Penalty Notice and that section of legislation for Extinction Rebellion's next London stunt?

    “One individual has been reported under the new legislation, and that a fixed penalty notice would be issued for £10,000 for the offence of holding a gathering of more than 30 people in an outdoor public place contrary to regulations 5B(1), (2)(b)(iii) and 8(1) and (4) of the Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (No.2) (England) Regulations 2020."
    Daily Mirror
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Biden: 2.

    Trump: 2.02

    Close to switch over
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482
    dr_spyn said:

    Will The Met use that fixed Penalty Notice and that section of legislation for Extinction Rebellion's next London stunt?

    It seems very vindictive. Not impressed.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002

    Looks like the kite flying mission is going fully to plan. Get all the moaning and complaining out in the open; see which bits don't get the full double barrel; count the malcontents and size up the Commons majority.

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1300172604490371079
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    There is £120K sat waiting for Trump at 1.47
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Scott_xP said:

    Looks like the kite flying mission is going fully to plan. Get all the moaning and complaining out in the open; see which bits don't get the full double barrel; count the malcontents and size up the Commons majority.

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1300172604490371079
    I doubt any of the people who benefit from the 40% tax relief on pensions contributions read the Daily Express, outside the Editorial Suite.....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Scott_xP said:

    Looks like the kite flying mission is going fully to plan. Get all the moaning and complaining out in the open; see which bits don't get the full double barrel; count the malcontents and size up the Commons majority.

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1300172604490371079
    Getting boring this pension rate thing. We had this kite only a few months ago and a load of outrage at the thought of the well off being hit by a rationalisation of the rebate.

    Has Sunak finally grown a pair on this perennial?

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999

    Dems starting to panic about complacency factor.

    https://twitter.com/donwinslow/status/1299836495092527105?s=21
    How do you market a near 80-year old guy, whose onset of dementia at least has one benefit - that of people forgetting how creepy he used to be?

    Way to go Dems - you are going to inflict 4 more years of Trump on the planet.
    I see the narrative of blaming both Biden & 4 more years of Trump on the left is well under way. I note none of you lads are taking any responsibility for Trump in the first place.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,317

    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Charles said:

    You are saying he should have got what he wanted with no consequences.

    I anticipate with relish the day BoZo reaps the consequences of "getting what he wanted"...
    You might be happier if you didn't spend so much of your time wishing misfortune on an individual or set of individuals.
    Don’t be silly. Learning that your actions have consequences for you is essential to becoming a functioning adult.

    Having a 55-year old man with the moral maturity of a 5-year old as our PM is our misfortune not his.

    The

    kle4 said:

    I must say that the imminent american election, with all the bitterness and dodgy dealing, suddenly felt like the wrong time for me to have read a trilogy set during the fall of the Roman Republic. Far too tempting to see signs of terminal decline in institutions as a result.

    I was doing my usual browse through the latest reports of doom and disaster in the newspapers earlier this week, and chanced upon an article about Stoicism and the writings of the Emperor Marcus Aurelius. I've now ordered a copy of the Meditations and an accompanying analysis.

    If the world is going to shit (well, we know it's going to shit, it's merely a question of how badly) then thinking about how to endure disasters that are almost entirely out of one's own control would seem wise.
    I don't agree that it's going to shit at all - it's moving forward as it always has done.
    When someone tells you the world is going to shit, it's fun to ask them what year they would like to be transported back to. Maybe they would have been happier before the end of rationing, or the elimination of smallpox, or the discovery of penicillin. Or maybe they would have liked 1919, or 1649, or maybe the fun and laughter of 1347 ? Presumably longer life, modern medicine, travel and education mean little besides the warm comfort of 'the good old days'.

    So come on folks, what year would you *really* like to be living in?
    At this point I’d take 2015 and pray like mad that various actors here, in Europe and in the US took different decisions.....
    I'm not being silly. Regardless of the situation, it is foolish to invest time and attention on a perceived unhappy state of affairs that you cannot control.
    Well, that’s the Take Back Control slogan buggered then.

    We do have a whole series of mechanisms to hold the PM to account and in a democracy we have every right to hold him accountable.

    What you should be bothered about is not those who try to do this but the PM who thinks that he should not be held responsible for anything and should be able to avoid the consequences of his actions.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Scott_xP said:
    V. true. Labor Day is traditionally when the voters actually start to tune in.
  • Out of interest - what are the specifics of the threatened 'pension raid' - is it reducing the annual allowance again or something more radical / harder to implement?
  • ""We've dressed up in our best and are prepared to go down like gentlemen." - Benjamin Guggenheim, April 15, 1912.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Biden: 2.

    Trump: 2.02

    Close to switch over

    Bonkers.

    I thought the 2.5 I got on the Dems Was nuts back a whole. Ago but this!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599

    Biden: 2.

    Trump: 2.02

    Close to switch over

    Does anyone remember 2012 when Mitt Romney inexplicably came close to matching Obama in the betting stakes?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    Out of interest - what are the specifics of the threatened 'pension raid' - is it reducing the annual allowance again or something more radical / harder to implement?

    Rumours of making 30% the rate for offset against income tax. So basic rates peeps gain and higher rates lose.

    The latter is a set which overlaps considerably with journalists and editors.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1300164706007740416?s=19

    But why won't he condemn the violence?

    Why? Why?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The

    kle4 said:

    I must say that the imminent american election, with all the bitterness and dodgy dealing, suddenly felt like the wrong time for me to have read a trilogy set during the fall of the Roman Republic. Far too tempting to see signs of terminal decline in institutions as a result.

    I was doing my usual browse through the latest reports of doom and disaster in the newspapers earlier this week, and chanced upon an article about Stoicism and the writings of the Emperor Marcus Aurelius. I've now ordered a copy of the Meditations and an accompanying analysis.

    If the world is going to shit (well, we know it's going to shit, it's merely a question of how badly) then thinking about how to endure disasters that are almost entirely out of one's own control would seem wise.
    I don't agree that it's going to shit at all - it's moving forward as it always has done.
    When someone tells you the world is going to shit, it's fun to ask them what year they would like to be transported back to. Maybe they would have been happier before the end of rationing, or the elimination of smallpox, or the discovery of penicillin. Or maybe they would have liked 1919, or 1649, or maybe the fun and laughter of 1347 ? Presumably longer life, modern medicine, travel and education mean little besides the warm comfort of 'the good old days'.

    So come on folks, what year would you *really* like to be living in?
    Not much of an argument, though. For one thing, we've all had the misfortune to be born before the elimination of cancer, or for that matter covid-19. Neither fact keeps me awake at night. For another, "is going to shit" doesn't imply that we have got there yet. Since the second world war tens of millions of people at least have lived in conditions where, yes, flipping back to any of the dates you mention couldn't have made things worse. How do you know we aren't headed that way?
    I'm not sure that you comprehend the levels of progress that human society have made. The homeless on the street have better medical care and life expectancy than Kings of England in the range of dates above.

    Have you ever seen the following?

    https://ourworldindata.org/exports/GDP-per-capita-in-the-uk-since-1270_v6_850x600.svg
    Thought experiment: imagine advancing that argument in Cambodia in 1976, Rwanda in 1994, China in 1960, ...
    In Cambodia, Rwanda and China the people in power, quite deliberately*, turned the clock back.

    Even so, they merely managed to recreate the horror of the Middle Ages**. Which was really, really horrible for nearly everyone.

    *You can argue about intention with China
    **1/3rd of the population dies, or is slaughter by lunatics. This is what in the Middle Ages, we called an Interesting Episode....
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,317
    The issue with tax rises is not whether they should be done. At some point, all this spending is going to have be paid for. But whether now is the time to do them.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Andy_JS said:

    Biden: 2.

    Trump: 2.02

    Close to switch over

    Does anyone remember 2012 when Mitt Romney inexplicably came close to matching Obama in the betting stakes?
    Boy do I ever. Absolute genuine nonsense odds.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Andy_JS said:
    Here we go.

    Trump campaign trying to bend the market to their man??
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002
    Alistair said:

    But why won't he condemn the violence?

    Why? Why?

    https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1300175360080969729
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599

    Andy_JS said:
    Here we go.

    Trump campaign trying to bend the market to their man??
    Of course the ironic thing is that this type of betting is illegal in the US — (I think, unless they've changed the law recently).
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Cyclefree said:

    The issue with tax rises is not whether they should be done. At some point, all this spending is going to have be paid for. But whether now is the time to do them.

    A well worn tactic is to brief a load of eye watering hits on the rich and middle classes and then everyone relaxes on Budget Day when most of it doesn't happen and the stuff the Treasury really want gets nodded through.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Here we go.

    Trump campaign trying to bend the market to their man??
    Of course the ironic thing is that this type of betting is illegal in the US — (I think, unless they've changed the law recently).
    I'm not sure legality is a factor that weighs too heavily in Trump world.
  • The

    kle4 said:

    I must say that the imminent american election, with all the bitterness and dodgy dealing, suddenly felt like the wrong time for me to have read a trilogy set during the fall of the Roman Republic. Far too tempting to see signs of terminal decline in institutions as a result.

    I was doing my usual browse through the latest reports of doom and disaster in the newspapers earlier this week, and chanced upon an article about Stoicism and the writings of the Emperor Marcus Aurelius. I've now ordered a copy of the Meditations and an accompanying analysis.

    If the world is going to shit (well, we know it's going to shit, it's merely a question of how badly) then thinking about how to endure disasters that are almost entirely out of one's own control would seem wise.
    I don't agree that it's going to shit at all - it's moving forward as it always has done.
    When someone tells you the world is going to shit, it's fun to ask them what year they would like to be transported back to. Maybe they would have been happier before the end of rationing, or the elimination of smallpox, or the discovery of penicillin. Or maybe they would have liked 1919, or 1649, or maybe the fun and laughter of 1347 ? Presumably longer life, modern medicine, travel and education mean little besides the warm comfort of 'the good old days'.

    So come on folks, what year would you *really* like to be living in?
    September 10, 2001 would do me.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Way to go Dems - you are going to inflict 4 more years of Trump on the planet.

    I said once before that my hope for getting rid of Trump is placed on Term Limits rather than the Dems.
  • I remember the hatred Corbyn got for proposing to increase corporation tax lol
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,608
    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Biden: 2.

    Trump: 2.02

    Close to switch over

    Does anyone remember 2012 when Mitt Romney inexplicably came close to matching Obama in the betting stakes?
    Are these odds on Trump nonsense?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    I remember the hatred Corbyn got for proposing to increase corporation tax lol

    They will turn on Sunak if he tries to take their money away from them. They needs to polish the precious.... ;)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,608

    Way to go Dems - you are going to inflict 4 more years of Trump on the planet.

    I said once before that my hope for getting rid of Trump is placed on Term Limits rather than the Dems.
    And even that has risks....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    Way to go Dems - you are going to inflict 4 more years of Trump on the planet.

    I said once before that my hope for getting rid of Trump is placed on Term Limits rather than the Dems.
    And even that has risks....
    ivanka says 'hi'
  • Seems like the license fee really may well be on the way out
  • What will PB Tories complain about then???
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    interesting primary going on in Mass.

    Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) on Sunday endorsed his former colleague, Rep. Joe Kennedy III (D-Mass.) in his primary challenge to Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.).

    https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/514351-orourke-endorses-kennedy-for-senate-a-champion-for-the-values-were-most-proud
  • Prisons should be for dangerous people, I agree. What about decriminalising cannabis next or is that somehow going to be ignored
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    Seems like the license fee really may well be on the way out

    “One in 12 magistrates court cases are for non-payment of TV licences"

    Telegraph.

    If that is correct, seems a tad crazy to be chasing people and blocking courts like this.
  • The Conservatives didn't have a 26% lead when May was forced out.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Biden: 2.

    Trump: 2.02

    Close to switch over

    Does anyone remember 2012 when Mitt Romney inexplicably came close to matching Obama in the betting stakes?
    Are these odds on Trump nonsense?
    If you think the polls are remotely accurate then these odds are absurd even if the polls tighten by 3 points.
  • I don't see how the BBC wins over Leavers. Unless it starts saying bad news is good news, how is it supposed to win?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Betfair exchange has a "Will Next President Lose the popular vote" market and I am trying to work out the correct implied odds given the candidate odds and my brain isn't working.
  • The

    kle4 said:

    I must say that the imminent american election, with all the bitterness and dodgy dealing, suddenly felt like the wrong time for me to have read a trilogy set during the fall of the Roman Republic. Far too tempting to see signs of terminal decline in institutions as a result.

    I was doing my usual browse through the latest reports of doom and disaster in the newspapers earlier this week, and chanced upon an article about Stoicism and the writings of the Emperor Marcus Aurelius. I've now ordered a copy of the Meditations and an accompanying analysis.

    If the world is going to shit (well, we know it's going to shit, it's merely a question of how badly) then thinking about how to endure disasters that are almost entirely out of one's own control would seem wise.
    I don't agree that it's going to shit at all - it's moving forward as it always has done.
    When someone tells you the world is going to shit, it's fun to ask them what year they would like to be transported back to. Maybe they would have been happier before the end of rationing, or the elimination of smallpox, or the discovery of penicillin. Or maybe they would have liked 1919, or 1649, or maybe the fun and laughter of 1347 ? Presumably longer life, modern medicine, travel and education mean little besides the warm comfort of 'the good old days'.

    So come on folks, what year would you *really* like to be living in?
    September 10, 2001 would do me.
    The 2001 as predicted in the film looked quite good as well.

    What we have now is neither as good as we hoped nor as bad as we feared.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    I don't see how the BBC wins over Leavers. Unless it starts saying bad news is good news, how is it supposed to win?

    Easy. They report on the booming sales of concrete suppliers in the Kent area, as the lorry parks get built.

    Or, the number of apprentice customs agents.
  • Andy_JS said:
    Yet the Biden premium remains.

    Biden 2
    Dem 1.96

    Trump 2.02
    Rep 2.02
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Biden can only win while also winning the popular vote. Their is no way for him to win otherwise. So any deviation for the candidate odds comes from trump.

    So what is Trump's odds of winning whilst also winning the popular vote?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    The

    kle4 said:

    I must say that the imminent american election, with all the bitterness and dodgy dealing, suddenly felt like the wrong time for me to have read a trilogy set during the fall of the Roman Republic. Far too tempting to see signs of terminal decline in institutions as a result.

    I was doing my usual browse through the latest reports of doom and disaster in the newspapers earlier this week, and chanced upon an article about Stoicism and the writings of the Emperor Marcus Aurelius. I've now ordered a copy of the Meditations and an accompanying analysis.

    If the world is going to shit (well, we know it's going to shit, it's merely a question of how badly) then thinking about how to endure disasters that are almost entirely out of one's own control would seem wise.
    I don't agree that it's going to shit at all - it's moving forward as it always has done.
    When someone tells you the world is going to shit, it's fun to ask them what year they would like to be transported back to. Maybe they would have been happier before the end of rationing, or the elimination of smallpox, or the discovery of penicillin. Or maybe they would have liked 1919, or 1649, or maybe the fun and laughter of 1347 ? Presumably longer life, modern medicine, travel and education mean little besides the warm comfort of 'the good old days'.

    So come on folks, what year would you *really* like to be living in?
    September 10, 2001 would do me.
    That's not a great day to pick. Too late to stop 9/11, that's for sure.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599

    Andy_JS said:
    Yet the Biden premium remains.

    Biden 2
    Dem 1.96

    Trump 2.02
    Rep 2.02
    Interesting in a theoretical sense. Practically speaking you'd have to place a huge amount of money to make any significant profits from the difference.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    You can currently lay Hilary Clinton as the popular vote winner.

    This fucking election man, what even.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599
    New thread.
  • The market might soon be deciding that if people are working from home they can be working from home in lower cost areas and lower cost countries.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Yet the Biden premium remains.

    Biden 2
    Dem 1.96

    Trump 2.02
    Rep 2.02
    Interesting in a theoretical sense. Practically speaking you'd have to place a huge amount of money to make any significant profits from the difference.
    People will bet huge amounts if this 4- or 5-basis points Biden premium is still there at the beginning of November. In-running punters play at 1.04 and shorter in every horse race. We saw the same thing happen with Trump, Biden and Pence in the nomination markets.

    The point is, this premium implies there is a chance Biden will pull out before the election (and possibly some weeks before, since it will take time to print ballot papers with his replacement). Tbh I doubt "the market" knows anything but then, nor do I.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,929
    edited August 2020
This discussion has been closed.