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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Oh Jeremy Corbyn

SystemSystem Posts: 11,019
edited August 2020 in General
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Oh Jeremy Corbyn

Exclusive: Corbyn's Office Ordered 2017 Election Campaign Funding Cuts For 'Moderate' Labour MPs, Ex-Campaigns Chief Revealshttps://t.co/9qXrHFj8ek

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    Corbyn, or Corbyn's office? (Echoes of Boris or Dom?).
  • Options
    DAlexanderDAlexander Posts: 815
    "this is the sort of behaviour you’d expect from Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings"

    Not really, since those two seem pretty good at winning elections.
  • Options

    "this is the sort of behaviour you’d expect from Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings"

    Not really, since those two seem pretty good at winning elections.

    I'm talking about being petulant towards people who disagree with them, for example Julian Lewis.
  • Options
    novanova Posts: 525
    I'm no fan of Corbyn, but there's definitely two sides to this story, and the rebuttal from Steve Howell, sounds plausible too.

    https://twitter.com/FromSteveHowell/status/1299723555291181057
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,989
    Corbyn wanted a majority Labour government to push through a socialist agenda, he had zero interest in diluting that by doing deals with the LDs to stop Brexit by not putting up Labour candidates in their target seats
  • Options
    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,891
    kjh said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    Icarus said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    This was the one that Boris f**ked up right at the beginning, with that rambling incoherent television address so memorably lampooned by Matt Lucas, which included announcing the supposedly clear new five-stage national alert system, and then saying we were currently at level three-and-a-half.

    It never got off the runway.

    The new system is: watch what Scotland is doing; wait a week during which ministers can build the suspense by denying or trashing the Scottish approach; do the same.

    Yes, Johnson copies Sturgeons homework then hands it in late.

    The SNP would not be anywhere near as popular without the Tories as a foil. It has been the cover for a lot of other failures.

    It is Johnson's malevolent incompetence, as outlined in the header, that will end the United Kingdom.

    The end of Transition is set to be a trainwreck too. What else can we expect?

    Yesterday’s Briefing Room on R4 is well worth a listen. It included the suggestion that a thin last minute deal might be accompanied by an “implementation period” - during which everything would stay the same as currently. As a way to extend without actually extending.
    He’ll be out of the door as quickly as Theresa May was, if he tries that one.
    But who would they replace him with?
    Rishi (= Disraeli)??????
    Traditionally the Tories love a winner. And that goes above anything else.
    Looks like Rishi plans to copy Corbyns 2019 manifesto on tax. The cycle of copying Labours manifesto is accelerating.

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1299811051924578304?s=09
    If they ramp up IHT or lower the thresholds then I'll be surprised - in a good way. But I doubt that they will. Going after estates enrages both stickbangers and their heirs in a way almost nothing else will, and is political nuclear death (as Theresa May discovered with the dementia tax.)

    The Government won't want to go after income tax, NI and VAT - too controversial, too obvious - with the caveat that they might scrap the preferential NI rate currently enjoyed by the self-employed, which is something that Sunak has hinted at in the past. They daren't touch the stickbangers, of course, so we are stuck with the wretched triple lock for the foreseeable. Hiking corporation tax at the same time as trying to get us through Brexit might be considered brave, in the Sir Humphrey sense.

    Thus, the most obvious targets are tax reliefs enjoyed by the working age population. The prime candidate is a big Brown-style raid on pensions, this time normalising reliefs at the basic rate for all contributions. The FT was suggesting earlier in the year that CGT might be rounded up to a flat rate of 28% for all assets, and my husband was also speculating just yesterday that the annual contribution limit for ISAs might be cut in half.

    Of course, the most radical measure would be to go all out with a wealth tax and pocket a one-off levy on all assets - savings, pensions, shares, property, the lot - which could potentially recoup the cost of all the extra borrowing taken out during the Plague. But I think it really would take a Corbyn Government to dare to try something like that!
    The Sunday Times is reporting this differently - with all pensions relief given at 30% thus higher than the basic rate but lower than the higher rate thus avoiding the obvious headlines of either.

    I think something like that is likely.
    Some interesting ideas.

    But they need to stop ignoring the elephant in the room, which is the £25bn+ spent on the main residence relief CGT loophole.

    That is worth more than all the rest put together.
    Careful Matt, I brought this up a few weeks ago and got absolutely minced.
    CGT on primary residence would end Sunak's chances of being elected Tory leader within about five seconds.
    Also replying to @contrarian who basically posted the same.

    You are probably right.

    Can anyone remember the impact of removing Mortgage Tax Relief which I would have thought even more dramatic.
    Lawson salami sliced it and at a time of rapidly rising house prices (which the government was seeking to cool) it had minimal impact.
    He preannounced it which accelerated the boom and then caused a subsequent bust.
    That makes no sense. Its not as if MIRAS was locked in for those who bought before a particular date. It was removed for everyone from a date. Pre-announcing it meant people could work out what their mortgage would be when it was gone and whether they could afford the house. This caused a modest dampening to the market not a boom or a subsequent bust.
    According to Wikipedia when the multiple mortgage tax relief withdrawal was announced it caused a sharp increase in house prices to beat the deadline. Lawson subsequently stated he regretted not making it effective from budget day.
    It caused a significant increase in house prices over those few months, at the same time as the economy was going into decline. House prices in the south east and especially Greater London were already somewhat overpriced. The combination of these three things lead to a house price crash that spread mich further than the SE. The housing problem persisted some years and the words negative equity became a common.

  • Options
    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Am I wrong or is that Biden/Dem split now arable assuming a 5 percent commission?
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn wanted a majority Labour government to push through a socialist agenda, he had zero interest in diluting that by doing deals with the LDs to stop Brexit by not putting up Labour candidates in their target seats

    And by doing so, has zero possibility of implementing ANY of his policies. Great job.
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    DAlexanderDAlexander Posts: 815

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,925
    Andy_JS said:
    You always post these odds without comment. And always when Trump has shortened, I assume you feel Biden is great value ?
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,150
    Ipsos did some pre- and post- convention favourability polling (no head-to-head poll as far as I can tell) and found that basically nothing happened.

    https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-08/topline-abc-ipsos-poll-aug30.pdf
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,168
    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn wanted a majority Labour government to push through a socialist agenda, he had zero interest in diluting that by doing deals with the LDs to stop Brexit by not putting up Labour candidates in their target seats

    No he didn't. He wants "power without responsibility". His life has been opposition in perpetuity, even when his party were in power he opposed.
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    40% voteshare somewhat proves that Corbyn was the major drag on Labour in GE19.

    I believe Labour would have done better with any other leader.
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    DAlexanderDAlexander Posts: 815
    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    But where has this sense come from? It doesn't seem to be reflected in any of the polls to date as far as I can see.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn wanted a majority Labour government to push through a socialist agenda, he had zero interest in diluting that by doing deals with the LDs to stop Brexit by not putting up Labour candidates in their target seats

    And the LDs would not countenance supporting a minority Corbyn government to deliver Ref2 and Remain.

    So we got what we got. This.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,925
    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    It's utter mince, it's the same horrendous logic that Kamala Harris backers were buying into for the Dem nomination.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,592
    edited August 2020
    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:
    You always post these odds without comment. And always when Trump has shortened, I assume you feel Biden is great value ?
    It's interesting that Trump is closing the gap IMO, even though the polls still have Biden ahead (although slightly less so than before).
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,168
    Andy_JS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:
    You always post these odds without comment. And always when Trump has shortened, I assume you feel Biden is great value ?
    It's interesting that Trump is closing the gap IMO, even though the polls still have Biden ahead (although slightly less so than before).
    I too have the feeling that your boy is in the ascendency.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    It's utter mince, it's the same horrendous logic that Kamala Harris backers were buying into for the Dem nomination.
    I think so too. I'm not going to start worrying unless the polls tighten significantly.
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    ClippPClippP Posts: 1,684

    "this is the sort of behaviour you’d expect from Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings"
    Not really, since those two seem pretty good at winning elections.

    Only by cheating, so that doesn´t count. I agree with Mr Eagles that Corbyn is as untrutworthy as Cummings & Johnson, and vice versa. Dishonourable scumbags the lot of them!
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    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956

    "this is the sort of behaviour you’d expect from Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings"

    Not really, since those two seem pretty good at winning elections.

    I'm talking about being petulant towards people who disagree with them, for example Julian Lewis.
    Obviously the Lewis thing was wrong, but at least Johnson/Cummings are more open in dealing with their internal opponents, like the MPs who lost the whip and then got deselected last year. Brutal perhaps, but straightforward. Trying to secretly starve your opponents of election funding is a rather more underhand tactic.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    But where has this sense come from? It doesn't seem to be reflected in any of the polls to date as far as I can see.
    Couple of polls today showing a smaller lead but it's mainly ethereal right now. There does seem to be a popular view that disorder on the streets pushes people towards Trump. But I think that might be projecting - we'll see.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,287
    Am watching England Pakistan 20/20 match live. No close catchers, plenty of boundaries, but boring, no sense of pressure.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,925
    Lord knows what Trump's price would be if there was a national poll out showing him 15% ahead today. 1.2 probably.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,208
    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    It's utter mince, it's the same horrendous logic that Kamala Harris backers were buying into for the Dem nomination.
    I think so too. I'm not going to start worrying unless the polls tighten significantly.
    There is also the feeling that the polls aren't picking up shy Trumpers or undecideds who will plum for the 'law and order' candidate at last minute.

    Plus plenty of press this weekend saying the Trump convention was outrageous and shameless and yet sadly highly effective.

    Trump also has a bucket of cash and a better social media operation.

  • Options
    Essexit said:

    "this is the sort of behaviour you’d expect from Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings"

    Not really, since those two seem pretty good at winning elections.

    I'm talking about being petulant towards people who disagree with them, for example Julian Lewis.
    Obviously the Lewis thing was wrong, but at least Johnson/Cummings are more open in dealing with their internal opponents, like the MPs who lost the whip and then got deselected last year. Brutal perhaps, but straightforward. Trying to secretly starve your opponents of election funding is a rather more underhand tactic.
    Indeed. Corbyn could have chosen to deselect those he disliked, instead.je tried to gift their seats to the Tories. What logic is there in that?
  • Options
    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956

    Essexit said:

    "this is the sort of behaviour you’d expect from Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings"

    Not really, since those two seem pretty good at winning elections.

    I'm talking about being petulant towards people who disagree with them, for example Julian Lewis.
    Obviously the Lewis thing was wrong, but at least Johnson/Cummings are more open in dealing with their internal opponents, like the MPs who lost the whip and then got deselected last year. Brutal perhaps, but straightforward. Trying to secretly starve your opponents of election funding is a rather more underhand tactic.
    Indeed. Corbyn could have chosen to deselect those he disliked, instead.je tried to gift their seats to the Tories. What logic is there in that?
    The logic is that it helps to (a) create a more ideologically pure Labour Party and (b) makes it easier to blame the right of the party for electoral defeat.
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    ClippP said:

    "this is the sort of behaviour you’d expect from Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings"
    Not really, since those two seem pretty good at winning elections.

    Only by cheating, so that doesn´t count. I agree with Mr Eagles that Corbyn is as untrutworthy as Cummings & Johnson, and vice versa. Dishonourable scumbags the lot of them!
    How did they cheat?

    I know you're a sore lower who wants to change the rules and the voting system because you're bitter that our traditional and standard system doesn't give the results you like ... But how did they cheat?
  • Options
    DAlexanderDAlexander Posts: 815
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    But where has this sense come from? It doesn't seem to be reflected in any of the polls to date as far as I can see.
    Couple of polls today showing a smaller lead but it's mainly ethereal right now. There does seem to be a popular view that disorder on the streets pushes people towards Trump. But I think that might be projecting - we'll see.
    Maybe it is punters thinking that they themselves would be put off voting for the Democrats because of the riots.

    Are there any recent polls of the type "who do you think will win?" rather than "who would you vote for?" ?

    Perhaps they would show a different trend.
  • Options
    DAlexanderDAlexander Posts: 815

    "this is the sort of behaviour you’d expect from Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings"

    Not really, since those two seem pretty good at winning elections.

    I'm talking about being petulant towards people who disagree with them, for example Julian Lewis.
    This is pretty standard behaviour for politicians isn't it?

    May got rid of Osborne when she got in and Gordon Brown wasn't exactly shy of getting rid of people he didn't like.
  • Options

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    But where has this sense come from? It doesn't seem to be reflected in any of the polls to date as far as I can see.
    Couple of polls today showing a smaller lead but it's mainly ethereal right now. There does seem to be a popular view that disorder on the streets pushes people towards Trump. But I think that might be projecting - we'll see.
    Maybe it is punters thinking that they themselves would be put off voting for the Democrats because of the riots.

    Are there any recent polls of the type "who do you think will win?" rather than "who would you vote for?" ?

    Perhaps they would show a different trend.
    When the riots are happening on Trumps watch and the riots are started by, provoked by and encouraged by white supremacist Trump supporters then why would you vote Trump because you're concerned about them?
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,360
    edited August 2020
    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Am I wrong or is that Biden/Dem split now arable assuming a 5 percent commission?
    Yes, there is an arb there except if Biden pulls out, which might be what the market is nervous about.

    ETA and you can select 2% commission if you give up some bonuses on Sportsbook.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    One might pause for a moment to consider that, despite the fact that Theresa May transpired to be hopeless, Corbyn was so much more useless in 2017 that she would almost certainly have won the election anyway, if she hadn't over-reached and proposed charging old people for something. In which case, ironically, Corbyn would almost certainly still be Labour leader and the Far Left would be preparing for "one more heave" in 2022. So much decided by such fine margins.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Scott_xP said:
    Yep, that's Greece off the travel corridor list.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,203

    "this is the sort of behaviour you’d expect from Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings"

    Not really, since those two seem pretty good at winning elections.

    I'm talking about being petulant towards people who disagree with them, for example Julian Lewis.
    This is pretty standard behaviour for politicians isn't it?

    May got rid of Osborne when she got in and Gordon Brown wasn't exactly shy of getting rid of people he didn't like.
    They sacked them. They didn’t expel them from the party.

    It was pure spite by the PM. Contrast it with how he defends others who break the rules - https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/07/16/spotting-the-difference-what-really-matters-to-johnson-when-deciding-who-is-in-or-out/.
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    It's really perverse to see people, including many here I normally respect thinking that riots in America under Trump are a reason to re-elect Trump.

    Trump has literally spent his term in the Oval Office stoking tensions, encouraging violence and responding to atrocities and bloodshed by encouraging them and saying "there's good people on both sides".

    Biden is the one calling for de-escalation and an end to the violence.

    Saying that the violence Trump has encouraged is awful so therefore people should vote Trump is bizarre to say the least.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,893

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn wanted a majority Labour government to push through a socialist agenda, he had zero interest in diluting that by doing deals with the LDs to stop Brexit by not putting up Labour candidates in their target seats

    And by doing so, has zero possibility of implementing ANY of his policies. Great job.
    Political purity was always more important to Corbyn and friends, than making the compromises necessary for winning power.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,925
    edited August 2020
    Upstate & rural NY-24
    Aug 23-25, 2020

    B/C
    GBAO*
    Balter 48%
    Katko 46%
    Balter +2

    B+
    Public Opinion Strategies*
    400 LV
    Balter 40%
    Katko 51%
    Katko +11

    Katko had a 5% majority in 2018 (22% in 2016), so doubt he'll lose it this election.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,168
    Scott_xP said:
    Blimey. The odds of a dodgy flight into Cardiff, what is the probability of that? I wasn't sure there were any flights left into Rhoose, save for Schiphol and Doha.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,893

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    But where has this sense come from? It doesn't seem to be reflected in any of the polls to date as far as I can see.
    Couple of polls today showing a smaller lead but it's mainly ethereal right now. There does seem to be a popular view that disorder on the streets pushes people towards Trump. But I think that might be projecting - we'll see.
    Maybe it is punters thinking that they themselves would be put off voting for the Democrats because of the riots.

    Are there any recent polls of the type "who do you think will win?" rather than "who would you vote for?" ?

    Perhaps they would show a different trend.
    When the riots are happening on Trumps watch and the riots are started by, provoked by and encouraged by white supremacist Trump supporters then why would you vote Trump because you're concerned about them?
    The riots are on the watch of Democrat mayors and governors, who have done nothing to stop them for three months.
  • Options
    DAlexanderDAlexander Posts: 815

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    But where has this sense come from? It doesn't seem to be reflected in any of the polls to date as far as I can see.
    Couple of polls today showing a smaller lead but it's mainly ethereal right now. There does seem to be a popular view that disorder on the streets pushes people towards Trump. But I think that might be projecting - we'll see.
    Maybe it is punters thinking that they themselves would be put off voting for the Democrats because of the riots.

    Are there any recent polls of the type "who do you think will win?" rather than "who would you vote for?" ?

    Perhaps they would show a different trend.
    When the riots are happening on Trumps watch and the riots are started by, provoked by and encouraged by white supremacist Trump supporters then why would you vote Trump because you're concerned about them?
    Maybe some people don't think that the Antifa and BLM supporters that have been rioting the last few months are actually white supremacist Trump supporters.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    F1: https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2020/08/belgium-post-race-analysis-2020.html

    Safe to say this was not a classic, although interested in certain performances.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited August 2020
    Cyclefree said:

    "this is the sort of behaviour you’d expect from Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings"

    Not really, since those two seem pretty good at winning elections.

    I'm talking about being petulant towards people who disagree with them, for example Julian Lewis.
    This is pretty standard behaviour for politicians isn't it?

    May got rid of Osborne when she got in and Gordon Brown wasn't exactly shy of getting rid of people he didn't like.
    They sacked them. They didn’t expel them from the party.

    It was pure spite by the PM. Contrast it with how he defends others who break the rules - https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/07/16/spotting-the-difference-what-really-matters-to-johnson-when-deciding-who-is-in-or-out/.
    Major expelled everyone who didn't vote for Maastricht. How is that any different at all to Boris expelling those who didn't vote for his deal in the last Parliament?
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    One might pause for a moment to consider that, despite the fact that Theresa May transpired to be hopeless, Corbyn was so much more useless in 2017 that she would almost certainly have won the election anyway, if she hadn't over-reached and proposed charging old people for something. In which case, ironically, Corbyn would almost certainly still be Labour leader and the Far Left would be preparing for "one more heave" in 2022. So much decided by such fine margins.

    It's very butterfly effect, actually. You can make a very good argument that Brexit was caused by Blair's decision not to impose immigration caps on the A8 states in 2004, and No Deal was caused by May's decision to put the dementia tax in her 2017 manifesto. Talk about unintended consequences!
  • Options
    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,891
    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    I find it quite odd that peope in Europe with no connection with polling companies think that they can predict the movement in upcoming US polls.
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    But where has this sense come from? It doesn't seem to be reflected in any of the polls to date as far as I can see.
    Couple of polls today showing a smaller lead but it's mainly ethereal right now. There does seem to be a popular view that disorder on the streets pushes people towards Trump. But I think that might be projecting - we'll see.
    Maybe it is punters thinking that they themselves would be put off voting for the Democrats because of the riots.

    Are there any recent polls of the type "who do you think will win?" rather than "who would you vote for?" ?

    Perhaps they would show a different trend.
    When the riots are happening on Trumps watch and the riots are started by, provoked by and encouraged by white supremacist Trump supporters then why would you vote Trump because you're concerned about them?
    The riots are on the watch of Democrat mayors and governors, who have done nothing to stop them for three months.
    Trump is President and has aggravated the violence by escalating it by sending in Federal Thugs to deal with a protest against Police violence. He has poured fuel on the flames rather than seek de-escalation.

    How are the Mayors meant to resolve the fact that Federal Forces are abusing their authority and escalating the violence? They can't stop that.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187

    It's really perverse to see people, including many here I normally respect thinking that riots in America under Trump are a reason to re-elect Trump.

    Trump has literally spent his term in the Oval Office stoking tensions, encouraging violence and responding to atrocities and bloodshed by encouraging them and saying "there's good people on both sides".

    Biden is the one calling for de-escalation and an end to the violence.

    Saying that the violence Trump has encouraged is awful so therefore people should vote Trump is bizarre to say the least.

    I think he's seeking to tap into something ancient and visceral that he hopes lurks in the minds of a large number of white voters - fear of the Big Black Man.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,627

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    But where has this sense come from? It doesn't seem to be reflected in any of the polls to date as far as I can see.
    Couple of polls today showing a smaller lead but it's mainly ethereal right now. There does seem to be a popular view that disorder on the streets pushes people towards Trump. But I think that might be projecting - we'll see.
    Maybe it is punters thinking that they themselves would be put off voting for the Democrats because of the riots.

    Are there any recent polls of the type "who do you think will win?" rather than "who would you vote for?" ?

    Perhaps they would show a different trend.
    When the riots are happening on Trumps watch and the riots are started by, provoked by and encouraged by white supremacist Trump supporters then why would you vote Trump because you're concerned about them?
    Don't Philip. I have only just escaped from him on the last thread. I'm exhausted.
  • Options

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    But where has this sense come from? It doesn't seem to be reflected in any of the polls to date as far as I can see.
    Couple of polls today showing a smaller lead but it's mainly ethereal right now. There does seem to be a popular view that disorder on the streets pushes people towards Trump. But I think that might be projecting - we'll see.
    Maybe it is punters thinking that they themselves would be put off voting for the Democrats because of the riots.

    Are there any recent polls of the type "who do you think will win?" rather than "who would you vote for?" ?

    Perhaps they would show a different trend.
    When the riots are happening on Trumps watch and the riots are started by, provoked by and encouraged by white supremacist Trump supporters then why would you vote Trump because you're concerned about them?
    Maybe some people don't think that the Antifa and BLM supporters that have been rioting the last few months are actually white supremacist Trump supporters.
    Only a brain-dead fool would think that BLM is operating in a vacuum and not responding to Police and Federal violence. Are people that stupid as to think BLM are protesting for shits and giggles? Surely not.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    But where has this sense come from? It doesn't seem to be reflected in any of the polls to date as far as I can see.
    Couple of polls today showing a smaller lead but it's mainly ethereal right now. There does seem to be a popular view that disorder on the streets pushes people towards Trump. But I think that might be projecting - we'll see.
    Maybe it is punters thinking that they themselves would be put off voting for the Democrats because of the riots.
    Yes. That's what I meant by projecting. There certainly is some of that.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,893

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    But where has this sense come from? It doesn't seem to be reflected in any of the polls to date as far as I can see.
    Couple of polls today showing a smaller lead but it's mainly ethereal right now. There does seem to be a popular view that disorder on the streets pushes people towards Trump. But I think that might be projecting - we'll see.
    Maybe it is punters thinking that they themselves would be put off voting for the Democrats because of the riots.

    Are there any recent polls of the type "who do you think will win?" rather than "who would you vote for?" ?

    Perhaps they would show a different trend.
    When the riots are happening on Trumps watch and the riots are started by, provoked by and encouraged by white supremacist Trump supporters then why would you vote Trump because you're concerned about them?
    The riots are on the watch of Democrat mayors and governors, who have done nothing to stop them for three months.
    Trump is President and has aggravated the violence by escalating it by sending in Federal Thugs to deal with a protest against Police violence. He has poured fuel on the flames rather than seek de-escalation.

    How are the Mayors meant to resolve the fact that Federal Forces are abusing their authority and escalating the violence? They can't stop that.
    Do you mean the federal forces in Portland, who were defending the federal courthouse after the Antifa mob set it on fire several nights running?
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    edited August 2020

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    But where has this sense come from? It doesn't seem to be reflected in any of the polls to date as far as I can see.
    Couple of polls today showing a smaller lead but it's mainly ethereal right now. There does seem to be a popular view that disorder on the streets pushes people towards Trump. But I think that might be projecting - we'll see.
    Are there any recent polls of the type "who do you think will win?" rather than "who would you vote for?" ?

    Perhaps they would show a different trend.
    No recent ones AFAIK. But, yes, those polls - who do you THINK will win? - tend to be better for Trump.

    Projecting again.
  • Options
    DAlexanderDAlexander Posts: 815
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    But where has this sense come from? It doesn't seem to be reflected in any of the polls to date as far as I can see.
    Couple of polls today showing a smaller lead but it's mainly ethereal right now. There does seem to be a popular view that disorder on the streets pushes people towards Trump. But I think that might be projecting - we'll see.
    Maybe it is punters thinking that they themselves would be put off voting for the Democrats because of the riots.

    Are there any recent polls of the type "who do you think will win?" rather than "who would you vote for?" ?

    Perhaps they would show a different trend.
    When the riots are happening on Trumps watch and the riots are started by, provoked by and encouraged by white supremacist Trump supporters then why would you vote Trump because you're concerned about them?
    The riots are on the watch of Democrat mayors and governors, who have done nothing to stop them for three months.
    Trump is President and has aggravated the violence by escalating it by sending in Federal Thugs to deal with a protest against Police violence. He has poured fuel on the flames rather than seek de-escalation.

    How are the Mayors meant to resolve the fact that Federal Forces are abusing their authority and escalating the violence? They can't stop that.
    Do you mean the federal forces in Portland, who were defending the federal courthouse after the Antifa mob set it on fire several nights running?
    Yeah I don't get it. I'm copping a lot of abuse here for suggesting that people rioting and looting should be stopped rather than allowed to continue for months unopposed. I find it utterly baffling, but there we are.

    Maybe Trump Derangement Syndrome really is a thing.
  • Options
    DAlexanderDAlexander Posts: 815
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    But where has this sense come from? It doesn't seem to be reflected in any of the polls to date as far as I can see.
    Couple of polls today showing a smaller lead but it's mainly ethereal right now. There does seem to be a popular view that disorder on the streets pushes people towards Trump. But I think that might be projecting - we'll see.
    Are there any recent polls of the type "who do you think will win?" rather than "who would you vote for?" ?

    Perhaps they would show a different trend.
    No recent ones AFAIK. But, yes, those polls - who do you THINK will win? - tend to be better for Trump.

    Projecting again.
    Yes I recall they were more accurate in 2016 and was hoping to see a few this time.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,360
    edited August 2020

    One might pause for a moment to consider that, despite the fact that Theresa May transpired to be hopeless, Corbyn was so much more useless in 2017 that she would almost certainly have won the election anyway, if she hadn't over-reached and proposed charging old people for something. In which case, ironically, Corbyn would almost certainly still be Labour leader and the Far Left would be preparing for "one more heave" in 2022. So much decided by such fine margins.

    Theresa May's dementia tax is overplayed imo and there were at least two other large factors in the 2017 election. First, parroting strong and stable is undermined by a first-week u-turn.

    Second, is the two terrorist attacks during the campaign, Normally, to be cynical, you'd expect law-and-order to aid the Tories and bombs to remind voters that Corbyn was the terrorists' friend but in this case the blue team was left making the implausible denial that cutting 20,000 police mattered.
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    But where has this sense come from? It doesn't seem to be reflected in any of the polls to date as far as I can see.
    Couple of polls today showing a smaller lead but it's mainly ethereal right now. There does seem to be a popular view that disorder on the streets pushes people towards Trump. But I think that might be projecting - we'll see.
    Maybe it is punters thinking that they themselves would be put off voting for the Democrats because of the riots.

    Are there any recent polls of the type "who do you think will win?" rather than "who would you vote for?" ?

    Perhaps they would show a different trend.
    When the riots are happening on Trumps watch and the riots are started by, provoked by and encouraged by white supremacist Trump supporters then why would you vote Trump because you're concerned about them?
    The riots are on the watch of Democrat mayors and governors, who have done nothing to stop them for three months.
    Trump is President and has aggravated the violence by escalating it by sending in Federal Thugs to deal with a protest against Police violence. He has poured fuel on the flames rather than seek de-escalation.

    How are the Mayors meant to resolve the fact that Federal Forces are abusing their authority and escalating the violence? They can't stop that.
    Do you mean the federal forces in Portland, who were defending the federal courthouse after the Antifa mob set it on fire several nights running?
    I mean the Federal Forces in Portland who seenwere attacking unarmed men and women, violating multiple laws, refusing to show ID as to who they were, attacking the media etc etc etc

    When people are protesting Police violence sending in militarised forces to beat people up is hardly going to deescalate the situation is it?

    When the protests started many people here reasonably said that there wasn't a need to protest in the UK as we aren't America. They are. There is a need to protest there and it should be met with de-escalation and reform not escalating the violence that was STARTED by the Police in the first place. The BLM protests are a response to Police violence and not causing it and Trump is pouring fuel on the flames.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,627

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    But where has this sense come from? It doesn't seem to be reflected in any of the polls to date as far as I can see.
    Couple of polls today showing a smaller lead but it's mainly ethereal right now. There does seem to be a popular view that disorder on the streets pushes people towards Trump. But I think that might be projecting - we'll see.
    Maybe it is punters thinking that they themselves would be put off voting for the Democrats because of the riots.

    Are there any recent polls of the type "who do you think will win?" rather than "who would you vote for?" ?

    Perhaps they would show a different trend.
    When the riots are happening on Trumps watch and the riots are started by, provoked by and encouraged by white supremacist Trump supporters then why would you vote Trump because you're concerned about them?
    The riots are on the watch of Democrat mayors and governors, who have done nothing to stop them for three months.
    Trump is President and has aggravated the violence by escalating it by sending in Federal Thugs to deal with a protest against Police violence. He has poured fuel on the flames rather than seek de-escalation.

    How are the Mayors meant to resolve the fact that Federal Forces are abusing their authority and escalating the violence? They can't stop that.
    Do you mean the federal forces in Portland, who were defending the federal courthouse after the Antifa mob set it on fire several nights running?
    Yeah I don't get it. I'm copping a lot of abuse here for suggesting that people rioting and looting should be stopped rather than allowed to continue for months unopposed. I find it utterly baffling, but there we are.

    Maybe Trump Derangement Syndrome really is a thing.
    I am going to regret this BUT:

    Nobody is saying they shouldn't be stopped (you ought to try reading what people post and not make up your own interpretation of it).

    They should however not be stopped by a bunch of vigilantes as you were proposing on the last thread.

    And it would help if the president actually made some conciliatory remarks rather than egging on the vigilantes in a tweet.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,334

    <

    When the riots are happening on Trumps watch and the riots are started by, provoked by and encouraged by white supremacist Trump supporters then why would you vote Trump because you're concerned about them?

    Yes, I remember as a Labour supporter worrying than Heath's "Who Governs Britain?" election during the chaos of the miners' strike would be a masterstroke, but it turned out that people said "You do, but you're not doing it very well" and removed him. In general it's hard to claim that you'll be the best choice to sort out chaos if it's occurred on your watch (especially, as you say, if you are thought to have encouraged it).
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,925
    edited August 2020
    I think punters are projecting that Trump voters are NRA card carrying Klan sympathising militiamen, and Democrats are marxist Antifa BLM supporters with anarchist sympathies.
    Most Americans are of course neither*. Those that want a quiet life will quietly vote for Biden I think.

    * Except probably those out in Portland late at night.
  • Options

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    But where has this sense come from? It doesn't seem to be reflected in any of the polls to date as far as I can see.
    Couple of polls today showing a smaller lead but it's mainly ethereal right now. There does seem to be a popular view that disorder on the streets pushes people towards Trump. But I think that might be projecting - we'll see.
    Maybe it is punters thinking that they themselves would be put off voting for the Democrats because of the riots.

    Are there any recent polls of the type "who do you think will win?" rather than "who would you vote for?" ?

    Perhaps they would show a different trend.
    When the riots are happening on Trumps watch and the riots are started by, provoked by and encouraged by white supremacist Trump supporters then why would you vote Trump because you're concerned about them?
    The riots are on the watch of Democrat mayors and governors, who have done nothing to stop them for three months.
    Trump is President and has aggravated the violence by escalating it by sending in Federal Thugs to deal with a protest against Police violence. He has poured fuel on the flames rather than seek de-escalation.

    How are the Mayors meant to resolve the fact that Federal Forces are abusing their authority and escalating the violence? They can't stop that.
    Do you mean the federal forces in Portland, who were defending the federal courthouse after the Antifa mob set it on fire several nights running?
    Yeah I don't get it. I'm copping a lot of abuse here for suggesting that people rioting and looting should be stopped rather than allowed to continue for months unopposed. I find it utterly baffling, but there we are.

    Maybe Trump Derangement Syndrome really is a thing.
    But Trump is president now. The riots are happening under Trump, not under Biden. At best Trump cannot stop them; at worst he is aggravating them.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,168
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    But where has this sense come from? It doesn't seem to be reflected in any of the polls to date as far as I can see.
    Couple of polls today showing a smaller lead but it's mainly ethereal right now. There does seem to be a popular view that disorder on the streets pushes people towards Trump. But I think that might be projecting - we'll see.
    Maybe it is punters thinking that they themselves would be put off voting for the Democrats because of the riots.

    Are there any recent polls of the type "who do you think will win?" rather than "who would you vote for?" ?

    Perhaps they would show a different trend.
    When the riots are happening on Trumps watch and the riots are started by, provoked by and encouraged by white supremacist Trump supporters then why would you vote Trump because you're concerned about them?
    The riots are on the watch of Democrat mayors and governors, who have done nothing to stop them for three months.
    Trump is President and has aggravated the violence by escalating it by sending in Federal Thugs to deal with a protest against Police violence. He has poured fuel on the flames rather than seek de-escalation.

    How are the Mayors meant to resolve the fact that Federal Forces are abusing their authority and escalating the violence? They can't stop that.
    Do you mean the federal forces in Portland, who were defending the federal courthouse after the Antifa mob set it on fire several nights running?
    So you don't think there is any political dimension on Trump's part to escalate tensions in areas after police brutality has been called out?
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187

    One might pause for a moment to consider that, despite the fact that Theresa May transpired to be hopeless, Corbyn was so much more useless in 2017 that she would almost certainly have won the election anyway, if she hadn't over-reached and proposed charging old people for something. In which case, ironically, Corbyn would almost certainly still be Labour leader and the Far Left would be preparing for "one more heave" in 2022. So much decided by such fine margins.

    It's very butterfly effect, actually. You can make a very good argument that Brexit was caused by Blair's decision not to impose immigration caps on the A8 states in 2004, and No Deal was caused by May's decision to put the dementia tax in her 2017 manifesto. Talk about unintended consequences!
    There will be a deal.

    As for what caused Brexit, yes it's fun to play that game and I suppose the ultimate, going as deep and as far back as possible, is that it was caused by Ted Heath taking us in in 1973. That was the sine qua non. Nothing lasts forever and so from that point on, Brexit was only a matter of time.
  • Options
    OT what happened to the pb safety car bet?
  • Options

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    But where has this sense come from? It doesn't seem to be reflected in any of the polls to date as far as I can see.
    Couple of polls today showing a smaller lead but it's mainly ethereal right now. There does seem to be a popular view that disorder on the streets pushes people towards Trump. But I think that might be projecting - we'll see.
    Maybe it is punters thinking that they themselves would be put off voting for the Democrats because of the riots.

    Are there any recent polls of the type "who do you think will win?" rather than "who would you vote for?" ?

    Perhaps they would show a different trend.
    When the riots are happening on Trumps watch and the riots are started by, provoked by and encouraged by white supremacist Trump supporters then why would you vote Trump because you're concerned about them?
    The riots are on the watch of Democrat mayors and governors, who have done nothing to stop them for three months.
    Trump is President and has aggravated the violence by escalating it by sending in Federal Thugs to deal with a protest against Police violence. He has poured fuel on the flames rather than seek de-escalation.

    How are the Mayors meant to resolve the fact that Federal Forces are abusing their authority and escalating the violence? They can't stop that.
    Do you mean the federal forces in Portland, who were defending the federal courthouse after the Antifa mob set it on fire several nights running?
    Yeah I don't get it. I'm copping a lot of abuse here for suggesting that people rioting and looting should be stopped rather than allowed to continue for months unopposed. I find it utterly baffling, but there we are.

    Maybe Trump Derangement Syndrome really is a thing.
    Violence by the Police started these protests and escalating violence from the authorities has only made them worse.

    Are you aware of the concept of de-escalation?

    Are you against people standing up to an authoritarian and abusive state? Normally that's considered entirely American but all concepts of liberty and states rights go out the window when you mean liberty for black people it seems.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    eristdoof said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    I find it quite odd that peope in Europe with no connection with polling companies think that they can predict the movement in upcoming US polls.
    Been quite a move too. He touched 3 quite recently. 2 now.
  • Options
    DAlexanderDAlexander Posts: 815
    kjh said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    But where has this sense come from? It doesn't seem to be reflected in any of the polls to date as far as I can see.
    Couple of polls today showing a smaller lead but it's mainly ethereal right now. There does seem to be a popular view that disorder on the streets pushes people towards Trump. But I think that might be projecting - we'll see.
    Maybe it is punters thinking that they themselves would be put off voting for the Democrats because of the riots.

    Are there any recent polls of the type "who do you think will win?" rather than "who would you vote for?" ?

    Perhaps they would show a different trend.
    When the riots are happening on Trumps watch and the riots are started by, provoked by and encouraged by white supremacist Trump supporters then why would you vote Trump because you're concerned about them?
    The riots are on the watch of Democrat mayors and governors, who have done nothing to stop them for three months.
    Trump is President and has aggravated the violence by escalating it by sending in Federal Thugs to deal with a protest against Police violence. He has poured fuel on the flames rather than seek de-escalation.

    How are the Mayors meant to resolve the fact that Federal Forces are abusing their authority and escalating the violence? They can't stop that.
    Do you mean the federal forces in Portland, who were defending the federal courthouse after the Antifa mob set it on fire several nights running?
    Yeah I don't get it. I'm copping a lot of abuse here for suggesting that people rioting and looting should be stopped rather than allowed to continue for months unopposed. I find it utterly baffling, but there we are.

    Maybe Trump Derangement Syndrome really is a thing.
    I am going to regret this BUT:

    Nobody is saying they shouldn't be stopped (you ought to try reading what people post and not make up your own interpretation of it).

    They should however not be stopped by a bunch of vigilantes as you were proposing on the last thread.

    And it would help if the president actually made some conciliatory remarks rather than egging on the vigilantes in a tweet.
    My proposal was for the police and/or government to deal with the rioters which is what I stated several times.

    Having so far refused to do that then ordinary people were left with a choice of watching their cities burning to the ground or doing something about it themselves.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187

    Andy_JS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:
    You always post these odds without comment. And always when Trump has shortened, I assume you feel Biden is great value ?
    It's interesting that Trump is closing the gap IMO, even though the polls still have Biden ahead (although slightly less so than before).
    I too have the feeling that your boy is in the ascendency.
    I truly don't.
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,714

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    But where has this sense come from? It doesn't seem to be reflected in any of the polls to date as far as I can see.
    Couple of polls today showing a smaller lead but it's mainly ethereal right now. There does seem to be a popular view that disorder on the streets pushes people towards Trump. But I think that might be projecting - we'll see.
    Maybe it is punters thinking that they themselves would be put off voting for the Democrats because of the riots.

    Are there any recent polls of the type "who do you think will win?" rather than "who would you vote for?" ?

    Perhaps they would show a different trend.
    When the riots are happening on Trumps watch and the riots are started by, provoked by and encouraged by white supremacist Trump supporters then why would you vote Trump because you're concerned about them?
    The riots are on the watch of Democrat mayors and governors, who have done nothing to stop them for three months.
    Trump is President and has aggravated the violence by escalating it by sending in Federal Thugs to deal with a protest against Police violence. He has poured fuel on the flames rather than seek de-escalation.

    How are the Mayors meant to resolve the fact that Federal Forces are abusing their authority and escalating the violence? They can't stop that.
    Do you mean the federal forces in Portland, who were defending the federal courthouse after the Antifa mob set it on fire several nights running?
    I mean the Federal Forces in Portland who seenwere attacking unarmed men and women, violating multiple laws, refusing to show ID as to who they were, attacking the media etc etc etc

    When people are protesting Police violence sending in militarised forces to beat people up is hardly going to deescalate the situation is it?

    When the protests started many people here reasonably said that there wasn't a need to protest in the UK as we aren't America. They are. There is a need to protest there and it should be met with de-escalation and reform not escalating the violence that was STARTED by the Police in the first place. The BLM protests are a response to Police violence and not causing it and Trump is pouring fuel on the flames.
    "When people are protesting Police violence sending in militarised forces to beat people up"
    Could be Belarus or Hong Kong.
  • Options

    kjh said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    But where has this sense come from? It doesn't seem to be reflected in any of the polls to date as far as I can see.
    Couple of polls today showing a smaller lead but it's mainly ethereal right now. There does seem to be a popular view that disorder on the streets pushes people towards Trump. But I think that might be projecting - we'll see.
    Maybe it is punters thinking that they themselves would be put off voting for the Democrats because of the riots.

    Are there any recent polls of the type "who do you think will win?" rather than "who would you vote for?" ?

    Perhaps they would show a different trend.
    When the riots are happening on Trumps watch and the riots are started by, provoked by and encouraged by white supremacist Trump supporters then why would you vote Trump because you're concerned about them?
    The riots are on the watch of Democrat mayors and governors, who have done nothing to stop them for three months.
    Trump is President and has aggravated the violence by escalating it by sending in Federal Thugs to deal with a protest against Police violence. He has poured fuel on the flames rather than seek de-escalation.

    How are the Mayors meant to resolve the fact that Federal Forces are abusing their authority and escalating the violence? They can't stop that.
    Do you mean the federal forces in Portland, who were defending the federal courthouse after the Antifa mob set it on fire several nights running?
    Yeah I don't get it. I'm copping a lot of abuse here for suggesting that people rioting and looting should be stopped rather than allowed to continue for months unopposed. I find it utterly baffling, but there we are.

    Maybe Trump Derangement Syndrome really is a thing.
    I am going to regret this BUT:

    Nobody is saying they shouldn't be stopped (you ought to try reading what people post and not make up your own interpretation of it).

    They should however not be stopped by a bunch of vigilantes as you were proposing on the last thread.

    And it would help if the president actually made some conciliatory remarks rather than egging on the vigilantes in a tweet.
    My proposal was for the police and/or government to deal with the rioters which is what I stated several times.

    Having so far refused to do that then ordinary people were left with a choice of watching their cities burning to the ground or doing something about it themselves.
    And how exactly do you propose to deal with the protests given that it is Police violence that started them and Police violence from Federal Forces that Trump sent in have only served to escalate the violence?

    What is your solution? More violence from the Police? Or attempt de-escalation?
  • Options
    DAlexanderDAlexander Posts: 815

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    But where has this sense come from? It doesn't seem to be reflected in any of the polls to date as far as I can see.
    Couple of polls today showing a smaller lead but it's mainly ethereal right now. There does seem to be a popular view that disorder on the streets pushes people towards Trump. But I think that might be projecting - we'll see.
    Maybe it is punters thinking that they themselves would be put off voting for the Democrats because of the riots.

    Are there any recent polls of the type "who do you think will win?" rather than "who would you vote for?" ?

    Perhaps they would show a different trend.
    When the riots are happening on Trumps watch and the riots are started by, provoked by and encouraged by white supremacist Trump supporters then why would you vote Trump because you're concerned about them?
    The riots are on the watch of Democrat mayors and governors, who have done nothing to stop them for three months.
    Trump is President and has aggravated the violence by escalating it by sending in Federal Thugs to deal with a protest against Police violence. He has poured fuel on the flames rather than seek de-escalation.

    How are the Mayors meant to resolve the fact that Federal Forces are abusing their authority and escalating the violence? They can't stop that.
    Do you mean the federal forces in Portland, who were defending the federal courthouse after the Antifa mob set it on fire several nights running?
    Yeah I don't get it. I'm copping a lot of abuse here for suggesting that people rioting and looting should be stopped rather than allowed to continue for months unopposed. I find it utterly baffling, but there we are.

    Maybe Trump Derangement Syndrome really is a thing.
    Violence by the Police started these protests and escalating violence from the authorities has only made them worse.

    Are you aware of the concept of de-escalation?

    Are you against people standing up to an authoritarian and abusive state? Normally that's considered entirely American but all concepts of liberty and states rights go out the window when you mean liberty for black people it seems.
    Protest against government violence is fine.

    Violence, rioting, looting and arson against private businesses and homes is not and needs to be stopped.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    It's utter mince, it's the same horrendous logic that Kamala Harris backers were buying into for the Dem nomination.
    I think so too. I'm not going to start worrying unless the polls tighten significantly.
    There is also the feeling that the polls aren't picking up shy Trumpers or undecideds who will plum for the 'law and order' candidate at last minute.

    Plus plenty of press this weekend saying the Trump convention was outrageous and shameless and yet sadly highly effective.

    Trump also has a bucket of cash and a better social media operation.
    Yes, I get all that. But evens is not a rational price for him unless he gets a lot closer in the polls. It doesn't as we speak look a 50/50 race. Biden is clear fav.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,168
    kinabalu said:

    One might pause for a moment to consider that, despite the fact that Theresa May transpired to be hopeless, Corbyn was so much more useless in 2017 that she would almost certainly have won the election anyway, if she hadn't over-reached and proposed charging old people for something. In which case, ironically, Corbyn would almost certainly still be Labour leader and the Far Left would be preparing for "one more heave" in 2022. So much decided by such fine margins.

    It's very butterfly effect, actually. You can make a very good argument that Brexit was caused by Blair's decision not to impose immigration caps on the A8 states in 2004, and No Deal was caused by May's decision to put the dementia tax in her 2017 manifesto. Talk about unintended consequences!
    There will be a deal.

    As for what caused Brexit, yes it's fun to play that game and I suppose the ultimate, going as deep and as far back as possible, is that it was caused by Ted Heath taking us in in 1973. That was the sine qua non. Nothing lasts forever and so from that point on, Brexit was only a matter of time.
    You need go no further back than Cameron's 2015 manifesto. Osborne told him it was a stupid idea that could end his career. Add to the mix Johnson, who thought supporting Leave in a valiant defeat would raise his stock. Last but not least Corbyn whose total dereliction of duty during the referendum, due to his perverse love of state aid for failing industries, nailed the coffin shut.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,627

    kjh said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    But where has this sense come from? It doesn't seem to be reflected in any of the polls to date as far as I can see.
    Couple of polls today showing a smaller lead but it's mainly ethereal right now. There does seem to be a popular view that disorder on the streets pushes people towards Trump. But I think that might be projecting - we'll see.
    Maybe it is punters thinking that they themselves would be put off voting for the Democrats because of the riots.

    Are there any recent polls of the type "who do you think will win?" rather than "who would you vote for?" ?

    Perhaps they would show a different trend.
    When the riots are happening on Trumps watch and the riots are started by, provoked by and encouraged by white supremacist Trump supporters then why would you vote Trump because you're concerned about them?
    The riots are on the watch of Democrat mayors and governors, who have done nothing to stop them for three months.
    Trump is President and has aggravated the violence by escalating it by sending in Federal Thugs to deal with a protest against Police violence. He has poured fuel on the flames rather than seek de-escalation.

    How are the Mayors meant to resolve the fact that Federal Forces are abusing their authority and escalating the violence? They can't stop that.
    Do you mean the federal forces in Portland, who were defending the federal courthouse after the Antifa mob set it on fire several nights running?
    Yeah I don't get it. I'm copping a lot of abuse here for suggesting that people rioting and looting should be stopped rather than allowed to continue for months unopposed. I find it utterly baffling, but there we are.

    Maybe Trump Derangement Syndrome really is a thing.
    I am going to regret this BUT:

    Nobody is saying they shouldn't be stopped (you ought to try reading what people post and not make up your own interpretation of it).

    They should however not be stopped by a bunch of vigilantes as you were proposing on the last thread.

    And it would help if the president actually made some conciliatory remarks rather than egging on the vigilantes in a tweet.
    My proposal was for the police and/or government to deal with the rioters which is what I stated several times.

    Having so far refused to do that then ordinary people were left with a choice of watching their cities burning to the ground or doing something about it themselves.
    And how exactly do you propose to deal with the protests given that it is Police violence that started them and Police violence from Federal Forces that Trump sent in have only served to escalate the violence?

    What is your solution? More violence from the Police? Or attempt de-escalation?
    Philip, I did warn you. I suggest you look at the end of the last thread, I reckon you have a lot more stamina than me but.....
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,923
    fpt
    DennisBets said:

    » show previous quotes
    But the whole point is that they didn't. The Tories and Labour are both Unionist parties, it isn't a rude word. Labour had to be the ones to campaign because the Tories are so toxic.
    The Uk media love to blow smoke up Sturgeon to highlight the obvious frailties in English politicians. The reality is the SNP are absolutely dreadful and many scottish communities have given themselves away as greedy fantasists, similar to the nice folk in Cornwall who make Billions from overpriced tourism and then thought during COVID they could tell people who owned property there they were not allowed to live there even if they had followed lockdown rules.
    These places will find they have rapidly run out of friends when the phantom recession starts really feeding.
    And it will all be the fault of middle class English men (yawn)

    you are obviously ignorant of Scotland , just anothre arsy unionist on here who imagines they pay for Scotland. Let me burst your bubble, we don't need arsehole friends like you ripping us off and telling us we are stupid.
  • Options
    DAlexanderDAlexander Posts: 815

    kjh said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    But where has this sense come from? It doesn't seem to be reflected in any of the polls to date as far as I can see.
    Couple of polls today showing a smaller lead but it's mainly ethereal right now. There does seem to be a popular view that disorder on the streets pushes people towards Trump. But I think that might be projecting - we'll see.
    Maybe it is punters thinking that they themselves would be put off voting for the Democrats because of the riots.

    Are there any recent polls of the type "who do you think will win?" rather than "who would you vote for?" ?

    Perhaps they would show a different trend.
    When the riots are happening on Trumps watch and the riots are started by, provoked by and encouraged by white supremacist Trump supporters then why would you vote Trump because you're concerned about them?
    The riots are on the watch of Democrat mayors and governors, who have done nothing to stop them for three months.
    Trump is President and has aggravated the violence by escalating it by sending in Federal Thugs to deal with a protest against Police violence. He has poured fuel on the flames rather than seek de-escalation.

    How are the Mayors meant to resolve the fact that Federal Forces are abusing their authority and escalating the violence? They can't stop that.
    Do you mean the federal forces in Portland, who were defending the federal courthouse after the Antifa mob set it on fire several nights running?
    Yeah I don't get it. I'm copping a lot of abuse here for suggesting that people rioting and looting should be stopped rather than allowed to continue for months unopposed. I find it utterly baffling, but there we are.

    Maybe Trump Derangement Syndrome really is a thing.
    I am going to regret this BUT:

    Nobody is saying they shouldn't be stopped (you ought to try reading what people post and not make up your own interpretation of it).

    They should however not be stopped by a bunch of vigilantes as you were proposing on the last thread.

    And it would help if the president actually made some conciliatory remarks rather than egging on the vigilantes in a tweet.
    My proposal was for the police and/or government to deal with the rioters which is what I stated several times.

    Having so far refused to do that then ordinary people were left with a choice of watching their cities burning to the ground or doing something about it themselves.
    And how exactly do you propose to deal with the protests given that it is Police violence that started them and Police violence from Federal Forces that Trump sent in have only served to escalate the violence?

    What is your solution? More violence from the Police? Or attempt de-escalation?
    These riots went on for months before Trump sent in the Feds, de-escalation has been tried by the local Democrat run cities and completely failed.

    What is your solution? Just leave them to it?
  • Options

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    But where has this sense come from? It doesn't seem to be reflected in any of the polls to date as far as I can see.
    Couple of polls today showing a smaller lead but it's mainly ethereal right now. There does seem to be a popular view that disorder on the streets pushes people towards Trump. But I think that might be projecting - we'll see.
    Maybe it is punters thinking that they themselves would be put off voting for the Democrats because of the riots.

    Are there any recent polls of the type "who do you think will win?" rather than "who would you vote for?" ?

    Perhaps they would show a different trend.
    When the riots are happening on Trumps watch and the riots are started by, provoked by and encouraged by white supremacist Trump supporters then why would you vote Trump because you're concerned about them?
    The riots are on the watch of Democrat mayors and governors, who have done nothing to stop them for three months.
    Trump is President and has aggravated the violence by escalating it by sending in Federal Thugs to deal with a protest against Police violence. He has poured fuel on the flames rather than seek de-escalation.

    How are the Mayors meant to resolve the fact that Federal Forces are abusing their authority and escalating the violence? They can't stop that.
    Do you mean the federal forces in Portland, who were defending the federal courthouse after the Antifa mob set it on fire several nights running?
    Yeah I don't get it. I'm copping a lot of abuse here for suggesting that people rioting and looting should be stopped rather than allowed to continue for months unopposed. I find it utterly baffling, but there we are.

    Maybe Trump Derangement Syndrome really is a thing.
    Violence by the Police started these protests and escalating violence from the authorities has only made them worse.

    Are you aware of the concept of de-escalation?

    Are you against people standing up to an authoritarian and abusive state? Normally that's considered entirely American but all concepts of liberty and states rights go out the window when you mean liberty for black people it seems.
    Protest against government violence is fine.

    Violence, rioting, looting and arson against private businesses and homes is not and needs to be stopped.
    How?

    Federal Forces have already been sent in and they have made matters worse. So what do you want? More violence or de-escalation what exactly do you want?

    Federal Forces are already there. They even attacked the Mayor.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,168
    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:
    You always post these odds without comment. And always when Trump has shortened, I assume you feel Biden is great value ?
    It's interesting that Trump is closing the gap IMO, even though the polls still have Biden ahead (although slightly less so than before).
    I too have the feeling that your boy is in the ascendency.
    I truly don't.
    I hope you are right.
  • Options

    kjh said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    But where has this sense come from? It doesn't seem to be reflected in any of the polls to date as far as I can see.
    Couple of polls today showing a smaller lead but it's mainly ethereal right now. There does seem to be a popular view that disorder on the streets pushes people towards Trump. But I think that might be projecting - we'll see.
    Maybe it is punters thinking that they themselves would be put off voting for the Democrats because of the riots.

    Are there any recent polls of the type "who do you think will win?" rather than "who would you vote for?" ?

    Perhaps they would show a different trend.
    When the riots are happening on Trumps watch and the riots are started by, provoked by and encouraged by white supremacist Trump supporters then why would you vote Trump because you're concerned about them?
    The riots are on the watch of Democrat mayors and governors, who have done nothing to stop them for three months.
    Trump is President and has aggravated the violence by escalating it by sending in Federal Thugs to deal with a protest against Police violence. He has poured fuel on the flames rather than seek de-escalation.

    How are the Mayors meant to resolve the fact that Federal Forces are abusing their authority and escalating the violence? They can't stop that.
    Do you mean the federal forces in Portland, who were defending the federal courthouse after the Antifa mob set it on fire several nights running?
    Yeah I don't get it. I'm copping a lot of abuse here for suggesting that people rioting and looting should be stopped rather than allowed to continue for months unopposed. I find it utterly baffling, but there we are.

    Maybe Trump Derangement Syndrome really is a thing.
    I am going to regret this BUT:

    Nobody is saying they shouldn't be stopped (you ought to try reading what people post and not make up your own interpretation of it).

    They should however not be stopped by a bunch of vigilantes as you were proposing on the last thread.

    And it would help if the president actually made some conciliatory remarks rather than egging on the vigilantes in a tweet.
    My proposal was for the police and/or government to deal with the rioters which is what I stated several times.

    Having so far refused to do that then ordinary people were left with a choice of watching their cities burning to the ground or doing something about it themselves.
    And how exactly do you propose to deal with the protests given that it is Police violence that started them and Police violence from Federal Forces that Trump sent in have only served to escalate the violence?

    What is your solution? More violence from the Police? Or attempt de-escalation?
    These riots went on for months before Trump sent in the Feds, de-escalation has been tried by the local Democrat run cities and completely failed.

    What is your solution? Just leave them to it?
    That's not true.

    How about trying de-escalation tactics? How about a President who appeals for calm from all sides rather than stoking violence? How about an attempt to investigate and reform the concerns about violence?

    Trump has used his federal powers and made matters worse. Time for someone else to have a go.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    But where has this sense come from? It doesn't seem to be reflected in any of the polls to date as far as I can see.
    Couple of polls today showing a smaller lead but it's mainly ethereal right now. There does seem to be a popular view that disorder on the streets pushes people towards Trump. But I think that might be projecting - we'll see.
    Maybe it is punters thinking that they themselves would be put off voting for the Democrats because of the riots.

    Are there any recent polls of the type "who do you think will win?" rather than "who would you vote for?" ?

    Perhaps they would show a different trend.
    When the riots are happening on Trumps watch and the riots are started by, provoked by and encouraged by white supremacist Trump supporters then why would you vote Trump because you're concerned about them?
    The riots are on the watch of Democrat mayors and governors, who have done nothing to stop them for three months.
    Trump is President and has aggravated the violence by escalating it by sending in Federal Thugs to deal with a protest against Police violence. He has poured fuel on the flames rather than seek de-escalation.

    How are the Mayors meant to resolve the fact that Federal Forces are abusing their authority and escalating the violence? They can't stop that.
    Do you mean the federal forces in Portland, who were defending the federal courthouse after the Antifa mob set it on fire several nights running?
    Yeah I don't get it. I'm copping a lot of abuse here for suggesting that people rioting and looting should be stopped rather than allowed to continue for months unopposed. I find it utterly baffling, but there we are.

    Maybe Trump Derangement Syndrome really is a thing.
    Violence by the Police started these protests and escalating violence from the authorities has only made them worse.

    Are you aware of the concept of de-escalation?

    Are you against people standing up to an authoritarian and abusive state? Normally that's considered entirely American but all concepts of liberty and states rights go out the window when you mean liberty for black people it seems.
    Protest against government violence is fine.

    Violence, rioting, looting and arson against private businesses and homes is not and needs to be stopped.
    How?

    Federal Forces have already been sent in and they have made matters worse. So what do you want? More violence or de-escalation what exactly do you want?

    Federal Forces are already there. They even attacked the Mayor.
    Not speaking for DA but there is little doubt in my mind that many of the Trumpster types do not particularly wish to see an end to the rioting - they want to see some heads cracked good and proper on TV by the Feds. A lot more heads, I mean.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,923
    unionists get ever more desperate , now quibbling about less than Boris's entertainment bill. what about 80B+ on a few miles of railtrack, 20B+ for a cross london tunnel , 200B+ on willy waving toys. How low can you stoop.
  • Options
    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    But where has this sense come from? It doesn't seem to be reflected in any of the polls to date as far as I can see.
    Couple of polls today showing a smaller lead but it's mainly ethereal right now. There does seem to be a popular view that disorder on the streets pushes people towards Trump. But I think that might be projecting - we'll see.
    Maybe it is punters thinking that they themselves would be put off voting for the Democrats because of the riots.

    Are there any recent polls of the type "who do you think will win?" rather than "who would you vote for?" ?

    Perhaps they would show a different trend.
    When the riots are happening on Trumps watch and the riots are started by, provoked by and encouraged by white supremacist Trump supporters then why would you vote Trump because you're concerned about them?
    The riots are on the watch of Democrat mayors and governors, who have done nothing to stop them for three months.
    Trump is President and has aggravated the violence by escalating it by sending in Federal Thugs to deal with a protest against Police violence. He has poured fuel on the flames rather than seek de-escalation.

    How are the Mayors meant to resolve the fact that Federal Forces are abusing their authority and escalating the violence? They can't stop that.
    Do you mean the federal forces in Portland, who were defending the federal courthouse after the Antifa mob set it on fire several nights running?
    Yeah I don't get it. I'm copping a lot of abuse here for suggesting that people rioting and looting should be stopped rather than allowed to continue for months unopposed. I find it utterly baffling, but there we are.

    Maybe Trump Derangement Syndrome really is a thing.
    Violence by the Police started these protests and escalating violence from the authorities has only made them worse.

    Are you aware of the concept of de-escalation?

    Are you against people standing up to an authoritarian and abusive state? Normally that's considered entirely American but all concepts of liberty and states rights go out the window when you mean liberty for black people it seems.
    Protest against government violence is fine.

    Violence, rioting, looting and arson against private businesses and homes is not and needs to be stopped.
    How?

    Federal Forces have already been sent in and they have made matters worse. So what do you want? More violence or de-escalation what exactly do you want?

    Federal Forces are already there. They even attacked the Mayor.
    Not speaking for DA but there is little doubt in my mind that many of the Trumpster types do not particularly wish to see an end to the rioting - they want to see some heads cracked good and proper on TV by the Feds. A lot more heads, I mean.
    Indeed. But the Feds have been there for months now abusing their authority and what has it done? Has it calmed things or have matters gotten worse?

    The Feds that are there encouraging violence answer to Trump not the Mayor's Office. Trump has sent the Feds in, made matters worse and is now pointing to the violence he is encouraging.

    Either POTUS can't solve this violence, in which case Biden would be no worse than Trump; or the POTUS should solve it in which case Trump has failed miserably.

    Either way, it reflects awfully on the man in charge. Which is Trump.
  • Options
    DAlexanderDAlexander Posts: 815

    kjh said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    But where has this sense come from? It doesn't seem to be reflected in any of the polls to date as far as I can see.
    Couple of polls today showing a smaller lead but it's mainly ethereal right now. There does seem to be a popular view that disorder on the streets pushes people towards Trump. But I think that might be projecting - we'll see.
    Maybe it is punters thinking that they themselves would be put off voting for the Democrats because of the riots.

    Are there any recent polls of the type "who do you think will win?" rather than "who would you vote for?" ?

    Perhaps they would show a different trend.
    When the riots are happening on Trumps watch and the riots are started by, provoked by and encouraged by white supremacist Trump supporters then why would you vote Trump because you're concerned about them?
    The riots are on the watch of Democrat mayors and governors, who have done nothing to stop them for three months.
    Trump is President and has aggravated the violence by escalating it by sending in Federal Thugs to deal with a protest against Police violence. He has poured fuel on the flames rather than seek de-escalation.

    How are the Mayors meant to resolve the fact that Federal Forces are abusing their authority and escalating the violence? They can't stop that.
    Do you mean the federal forces in Portland, who were defending the federal courthouse after the Antifa mob set it on fire several nights running?
    Yeah I don't get it. I'm copping a lot of abuse here for suggesting that people rioting and looting should be stopped rather than allowed to continue for months unopposed. I find it utterly baffling, but there we are.

    Maybe Trump Derangement Syndrome really is a thing.
    I am going to regret this BUT:

    Nobody is saying they shouldn't be stopped (you ought to try reading what people post and not make up your own interpretation of it).

    They should however not be stopped by a bunch of vigilantes as you were proposing on the last thread.

    And it would help if the president actually made some conciliatory remarks rather than egging on the vigilantes in a tweet.
    My proposal was for the police and/or government to deal with the rioters which is what I stated several times.

    Having so far refused to do that then ordinary people were left with a choice of watching their cities burning to the ground or doing something about it themselves.
    And how exactly do you propose to deal with the protests given that it is Police violence that started them and Police violence from Federal Forces that Trump sent in have only served to escalate the violence?

    What is your solution? More violence from the Police? Or attempt de-escalation?
    These riots went on for months before Trump sent in the Feds, de-escalation has been tried by the local Democrat run cities and completely failed.

    What is your solution? Just leave them to it?
    That's not true.

    How about trying de-escalation tactics? How about a President who appeals for calm from all sides rather than stoking violence? How about an attempt to investigate and reform the concerns about violence?

    Trump has used his federal powers and made matters worse. Time for someone else to have a go.
    What isn't true?

    The riots have gone on for several months and local Democrat run cities have tried endless appeasement, which has failed. Are you saying these things haven't happened?

    It's time to agree to disagree I think, we can't even agree on basic things that have clearly happened.

    Has Trump sending in the Feds made things worse? Here I'm open to be persuaded, but of course at first there will be clashes until the rioters are arrested and dispersed.
  • Options
    malcolmg said:

    unionists get ever more desperate , now quibbling about less than Boris's entertainment bill. what about 80B+ on a few miles of railtrack, 20B+ for a cross london tunnel , 200B+ on willy waving toys. How low can you stoop.
    Last I heard SNP were in favour of HS2, in fact isn't it the policy to have HS2 extended up into Scotland rather than having it cancelled?

    They want more spending on high speed rail, not less.
  • Options

    kjh said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    But where has this sense come from? It doesn't seem to be reflected in any of the polls to date as far as I can see.
    Couple of polls today showing a smaller lead but it's mainly ethereal right now. There does seem to be a popular view that disorder on the streets pushes people towards Trump. But I think that might be projecting - we'll see.
    Maybe it is punters thinking that they themselves would be put off voting for the Democrats because of the riots.

    Are there any recent polls of the type "who do you think will win?" rather than "who would you vote for?" ?

    Perhaps they would show a different trend.
    When the riots are happening on Trumps watch and the riots are started by, provoked by and encouraged by white supremacist Trump supporters then why would you vote Trump because you're concerned about them?
    The riots are on the watch of Democrat mayors and governors, who have done nothing to stop them for three months.
    Trump is President and has aggravated the violence by escalating it by sending in Federal Thugs to deal with a protest against Police violence. He has poured fuel on the flames rather than seek de-escalation.

    How are the Mayors meant to resolve the fact that Federal Forces are abusing their authority and escalating the violence? They can't stop that.
    Do you mean the federal forces in Portland, who were defending the federal courthouse after the Antifa mob set it on fire several nights running?
    Yeah I don't get it. I'm copping a lot of abuse here for suggesting that people rioting and looting should be stopped rather than allowed to continue for months unopposed. I find it utterly baffling, but there we are.

    Maybe Trump Derangement Syndrome really is a thing.
    I am going to regret this BUT:

    Nobody is saying they shouldn't be stopped (you ought to try reading what people post and not make up your own interpretation of it).

    They should however not be stopped by a bunch of vigilantes as you were proposing on the last thread.

    And it would help if the president actually made some conciliatory remarks rather than egging on the vigilantes in a tweet.
    My proposal was for the police and/or government to deal with the rioters which is what I stated several times.

    Having so far refused to do that then ordinary people were left with a choice of watching their cities burning to the ground or doing something about it themselves.
    And how exactly do you propose to deal with the protests given that it is Police violence that started them and Police violence from Federal Forces that Trump sent in have only served to escalate the violence?

    What is your solution? More violence from the Police? Or attempt de-escalation?
    These riots went on for months before Trump sent in the Feds, de-escalation has been tried by the local Democrat run cities and completely failed.

    What is your solution? Just leave them to it?
    That's not true.

    How about trying de-escalation tactics? How about a President who appeals for calm from all sides rather than stoking violence? How about an attempt to investigate and reform the concerns about violence?

    Trump has used his federal powers and made matters worse. Time for someone else to have a go.
    What isn't true?

    The riots have gone on for several months and local Democrat run cities have tried endless appeasement, which has failed. Are you saying these things haven't happened?

    It's time to agree to disagree I think, we can't even agree on basic things that have clearly happened.

    Has Trump sending in the Feds made things worse? Here I'm open to be persuaded, but of course at first there will be clashes until the rioters are arrested and dispersed.
    No it hasn't happened since the Feds have been there for months.

    What has Trump done in these months that has made things better?

    And what has the President of the United States of America done to deescalate matters?
  • Options

    malcolmg said:

    unionists get ever more desperate , now quibbling about less than Boris's entertainment bill. what about 80B+ on a few miles of railtrack, 20B+ for a cross london tunnel , 200B+ on willy waving toys. How low can you stoop.
    Last I heard SNP were in favour of HS2, in fact isn't it the policy to have HS2 extended up into Scotland rather than having it cancelled?

    They want more spending on high speed rail, not less.
    Plus under Barnett HS2 is classed as English expenditure and the Scots get Barnett consequentials from it.

    Which Malcolm 100% knows.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Upstate & rural NY-24
    Aug 23-25, 2020

    B/C
    GBAO*
    Balter 48%
    Katko 46%
    Balter +2

    B+
    Public Opinion Strategies*
    400 LV
    Balter 40%
    Katko 51%
    Katko +11

    Katko had a 5% majority in 2018 (22% in 2016), so doubt he'll lose it this election.

    I don't know, his majority was a mere 22 points at the last presidential election.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,592

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    But where has this sense come from? It doesn't seem to be reflected in any of the polls to date as far as I can see.
    Couple of polls today showing a smaller lead but it's mainly ethereal right now. There does seem to be a popular view that disorder on the streets pushes people towards Trump. But I think that might be projecting - we'll see.
    Maybe it is punters thinking that they themselves would be put off voting for the Democrats because of the riots.

    Are there any recent polls of the type "who do you think will win?" rather than "who would you vote for?" ?

    Perhaps they would show a different trend.
    When the riots are happening on Trumps watch and the riots are started by, provoked by and encouraged by white supremacist Trump supporters then why would you vote Trump because you're concerned about them?
    Many people blame Antifa for the riots.
  • Options
    Trump fanbois thinking violence on Trump's watch and with Trump's Feds involved is a reason to vote for Trump should ask themselves 2 basic questions.
    1. Can Trump stop the violence?
    2. Why hasn't he yet?
    Either he doesn't want to end it or he can't. Neither is impressive.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Andy_JS said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Remarkably the reverse-premium for Trump is back and he is once again shorter than his party; the premium for Biden has increased.

    Biden 1.97
    Dem 1.91

    Trump 2.06
    Rep 2.08
    Why is Trump at such short odds with Biden absolutely miles ahead in the polls?
    There’s a sense afoot that Trump has the Mo. It will either be born out by the next batch of polls showing the Biden lead narrowing sharply or if not the Trump price will collapse. We await agog.
    But where has this sense come from? It doesn't seem to be reflected in any of the polls to date as far as I can see.
    Couple of polls today showing a smaller lead but it's mainly ethereal right now. There does seem to be a popular view that disorder on the streets pushes people towards Trump. But I think that might be projecting - we'll see.
    Maybe it is punters thinking that they themselves would be put off voting for the Democrats because of the riots.

    Are there any recent polls of the type "who do you think will win?" rather than "who would you vote for?" ?

    Perhaps they would show a different trend.
    When the riots are happening on Trumps watch and the riots are started by, provoked by and encouraged by white supremacist Trump supporters then why would you vote Trump because you're concerned about them?
    Many people blame Antifa for the riots.
    Many people watched the videos of peaceful demonstrators being tear gassed and baton rounded by unmarked federal officers and drew a different conclusion.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,925
    edited August 2020
    Both Reinoehl (The Portland/BLM shooter) and Rittenhouse (The Trump supporter/Kenosha shooter) will succesfully claim self defense in court I reckon.
  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    "When the final word is written on Brexit Corbyn’s contribution will not be forgotten."

    Perhaps we should set up an award for him? The Margaret Thatcher Award for Contributions to Brexit?

    He'd like that.
This discussion has been closed.