In fact, the idea that a poll such as this should have an relevance shows everything that is wrong in politics and the conduct of Government today. Historically a Government would see its primary role as to govern in the interests of the nation, implementing their manifesto as much as possible, and in the knowledge that some of their actions would be necessarily unpopular, particularly in the short term, but that they would not be judged on their record in the round until 4-5 years hence. They would expect that many of their actions that were unpopular in the short term would be judged differently with the perspective of time. Indeed, where necessary, they would deliberately seek to stack controllable unpopular (but necessary) measures in the first half of the Parliament.
Backbenchers would get seriously jittery for at least 2 years - nobody seriously thought polls in the first half of Parliament were a reason to get worried - too much could change, focus on the alternatives were lacking, and in extremes there was plenty of time to change the leadership and direction if necessary.
And even if they were interested, many Governments would have killed for polling like this!
Not following a big election win!
Margaret Thatcher's first landslide election victory (144 seat majority): 9 June 1983 First opinion poll thereafter putting Labour ahead: 13 February 1984
Result of 1987 General Election: second Thatcher landslide.
Conclusion: Labour opinion poll lead a few months after massive Tory victory = totally irrelevant. Here endeth the lesson.
On the other hand, Labour did not take the lead in the 1987 Parliament until almost two years after Thatcher's win. Similarly in the 1959 Parliament , Gaitskell's Labour party did not take the lead until Autumn 1961.
*rolls eyes*
The point is that opinion polls flopping about give people something to hyperventilate over, but they have as much predictive value - especially four years out from an election - as Mystic Meg's crystal ball. Many polls in 1985 suggested that the Alliance was at approximate parity with, or even ahead of, the two large parties. Polling just four weeks prior to the 2017 election gave the Conservatives a 20pt lead.
Polling data might become relevant if Labour gains the ascendancy and holds it for a long time - long enough, perhaps, to bring disquiet about Johnson in his party to a head. Unless or until that happens, these numbers are meaningless.
If the swings are far higher in former Labour seats/Tory-Labour marginals as Curtice remarked, Johnson is losing his new supporters
I would suspect that Johnson’s “new supporters” are high in Covid scepticism - or at least sceptical about the Government’s economically destructive approach to combatting it.
36% say the BBC’s decision to have an instrumental performance of Land of Hope and Glory and Rule Britannia is bad, whereas 26% say it is a good decision.
How do they get such different answers to yesterday?
The comment on this issue has been entirely predictable and entirely depressing. It is based entirely on the basis that the justification given for the change is false. Ie. that a traditional performance would work very badly in an Albert Hall without audience (and further taking into account a desire to limit singing under Govt COVID guidelines. Even though it is incredibly plausible.
People have an interest in stating it has nothing to do with pure musical decisions. And so all comment on the subject is made on this basis.
Probably it’ll happen and those who are actually interested in the Proms as anything other than a political battleground will conclude that it was a good choice.
The BBC and others have been very good at moving institutional programmers in line with popular culture eg Edinburgh tattoo, festival of remembrance whilst retains the key core message or objective, for some reason they haven’t with the LNOP but it won’t be long before the musicians refuse to play music with words to which they object. The sooner the better Unless someone comes up with words that reflect the 21 century.
Which shows how reliant Starmer is on Scottish MPs to become PM.
Did you see I had visited Epping yesterday? Excellent lunch at Roza and I have to say the High Street was busy and in good shape.
I'm prepared to give Harry's Pie & Mash a try on a future visit but I still think Zaikaa is excellent.
Is that an example of how Epping is the East End of London transmigrated? If so, it's rather nice.
Most of south Essex is the East End of London transmigrated, just as much of north Kent is now South London transmigrated.
However there are also plenty of middle class commuters in Epping and some old farming families who have been in the area for centuries, the East End only really arrived here after WW2 and the Blitz
Tory Remainers going to Labour is a bad sign for the Lib Dems
Tory Remainers are sussing out who offers the most competent Government.
Boris Johnson is destroying the Union and the Conservative Party.
He's a stratospheric twat useful only for gags and interesting hair on the campaign trail. Aside from that he has zero uses.
I want him to fuck off into the night and to never hear from him again.
If the Tories conclude that the man is a liability - and especially if his cohort of Red Wall MPs, who have more reason than most to be loyal, nonetheless conclude that their seats are in serious danger if he stays - then the men in grey suits will visit. If Johnson doesn't decide he has had enough and retires on health grounds first, of course. But if that happens I wouldn't expect it to do so any time soon.
Tory Remainers going to Labour is a bad sign for the Lib Dems
Tory Remainers are sussing out who offers the most competent Government.
Boris Johnson is destroying the Union and the Conservative Party.
He's a stratospheric twat useful only for gags and interesting hair on the campaign trail. Aside from that he has zero uses.
I want him to fuck off into the night and to never hear from him again.
If the Tories conclude that the man is a liability - and especially if his cohort of Red Wall MPs, who have more reason than most to be loyal, nonetheless conclude that their seats are in serious danger if he stays - then the men in grey suits will visit. If Johnson doesn't decide he has had enough and retires on health grounds first, of course. But if that happens I wouldn't expect it to do so any time soon.
The only senior Tory who polls better than Boris, sometimes, is Sunak and he would be best placed to win back Tory Remainers from Starmer by shifting to a softer Brexit.
However Boris is more likely to keep Tory Leavers from moving to Farage, at the moment a tie is manageable, if Labour went well ahead though then MPs would start to seriously get agitated
I distinctly remember interviews being given earlier in the pandemic in which the Oxford group suggested that they *might* have the first doses ready to give to priority cases by October.
The mood music nowadays seems to be "ready to go to the regulators by Christmas, if we're lucky." Ho hum.
I'm worried that there is no objective evidence for this change in the odds. It's a market I don't feel comfortable in until the very end.
I think the odds are changing because of the civil disturbances. The Democrats are weak on law and order, and therefore if it becomes a law and order election, they suffer. (I'd also note that the location of the latest issues, in Wisconsin, is a particular problem for the Democrats, as that was one of the two or three states which seemed easiest for them to flip.)
The question is whether the disturbances continue and grow, or whether they quieten down again.
I suspect the second is more likely, but it only takes one or two incidents to change this.
I understand, but the disturbances have been going on for two months.
From my vantage point (Los Angeles), we saw protests and demonstrations post the Floyd murder, and the it went very quiet. Other parts of the US may be different.
Surely it is what voters see on their social media and cable news that counts not what they see in their own State?
I think it's a mixture. When something is on TV it's one level removed from you.
When you hear sirens in the middle of the night, and helicopters, and streets are closed, then it's much closer and real. I really haven't noticed much in the last month, either on social media or TV. BLM came... and receded.
But now it may resurface.
I think that's a pretty weak argument to be honest, Robert.
I wasn't there, in person, to see and hear Edward Colston get pulled down in Bristol, the marches against Rhodes in Oxford and the unpleasant displays against the cenotaph and Churchill in Westminster.
It still left a very big political impact on me.
Right now, Biden is just talking to his base on this.
He's taking a huge risk.
The lack of national news in the US is always surprising
In fact, the idea that a poll such as this should have an relevance shows everything that is wrong in politics and the conduct of Government today. Historically a Government would see its primary role as to govern in the interests of the nation, implementing their manifesto as much as possible, and in the knowledge that some of their actions would be necessarily unpopular, particularly in the short term, but that they would not be judged on their record in the round until 4-5 years hence. They would expect that many of their actions that were unpopular in the short term would be judged differently with the perspective of time. Indeed, where necessary, they would deliberately seek to stack controllable unpopular (but necessary) measures in the first half of the Parliament.
Backbenchers would get seriously jittery for at least 2 years - nobody seriously thought polls in the first half of Parliament were a reason to get worried - too much could change, focus on the alternatives were lacking, and in extremes there was plenty of time to change the leadership and direction if necessary.
And even if they were interested, many Governments would have killed for polling like this!
Not following a big election win!
Margaret Thatcher's first landslide election victory (144 seat majority): 9 June 1983 First opinion poll thereafter putting Labour ahead: 13 February 1984
Result of 1987 General Election: second Thatcher landslide.
Conclusion: Labour opinion poll lead a few months after massive Tory victory = totally irrelevant. Here endeth the lesson.
On the other hand, Labour did not take the lead in the 1987 Parliament until almost two years after Thatcher's win. Similarly in the 1959 Parliament , Gaitskell's Labour party did not take the lead until Autumn 1961.
*rolls eyes*
The point is that opinion polls flopping about give people something to hyperventilate over, but they have as much predictive value - especially four years out from an election - as Mystic Meg's crystal ball. Many polls in 1985 suggested that the Alliance was at approximate parity with, or even ahead of, the two large parties. Polling just four weeks prior to the 2017 election gave the Conservatives a 20pt lead.
Polling data might become relevant if Labour gains the ascendancy and holds it for a long time - long enough, perhaps, to bring disquiet about Johnson in his party to a head. Unless or until that happens, these numbers are meaningless.
The polls should not be taken at this stage as a firm predictor of an election likely to be more than three and a half years away , but they are from meaningless. They provide evidence of a trend - and over the last four months that trend has been pretty clear.
'Trump cut into Biden’s lead among voters in the suburbs: Before the convention, Biden led by 14 points (54 percent to 40 percent), but after the convention, he led by 8 points (50 percent to 42 percent).
Trump also improved his margin among white voters, leading Biden 51 percent to 43 percent on Friday compared with a 2-point edge earlier in the week. That included a 6-point gain in his advantage among white voters without a college degree, among whom he leads 57 percent to 36 percent.
At the same time, Trump left the convention with a slightly worse standing among voters of color, trailing Biden by 28 points among Hispanic voters (33 percent to 61 percent) and 74 points among Black voters (9 percent to 83 percent).' https://morningconsult.com/2020/08/29/post-rnc-poll-trump-bounce/
The only senior Tory who polls better than Boris, sometimes, is Sunak and he would be best placed to win back Tory Remainers from Starmer by shifting to a softer Brexit.
However Boris is more likely to keep Tory Leavers from moving to Farage, at the moment a tie is manageable, if Labour went well ahead though then MPs would start to seriously get agitated
Well, quite.
The Conservative Party is nothing if not ruthless. It will happily remove a successful leader once he/she looks unsuccessful but only if there is an alternative who will ensure the party remains successful.
Boris Johnson's position is secure for now - he's not that much of a loser yet (were he 10-15 points behind labour it would be different) and while Sunak polls well, the hypothetical question of whether he would poll considerably better as PM than Johnson would only have impact if it was as marked as it was when Major/Heselltine were shown polling much better than Thatcher or when Johnson was shown as the only Conservative capable of winning the majority which had eluded May.
The RNC was masterful in its brazenness, attacking the Democrats from both left and right with unparalleled viciousness and addressing key voting blocs directly. The DNC by contrast was bland and anaemic, conveying only that Joe Biden is a nice guy, which everyone knew already.
I still don't think Trump will win this, but they're really giving it some welly.
True, but the bullshit is blindingly obvious, and no longer novel. He’ll retain the already persuaded, but he’s not going to win back those who’ve decided their vote four years ago was a mistake.
It is worth remembering that Biden doesn't need to persuade any Trump voters to switch, he merely needs to persuade those who voted for Obama and didn't vote in 2016 to support him.
This is his current strategy, and I'd say it's a complacent and very risky one.
It smacks a bit of Ed Miliband's 35%.
A real winner would lead his party, and go out there and take on Trump on his own turf.
I want Trump gone. But I don't want an old David Miliband in the White House either.
Right now Biden is making me feel 3rd party again.
Douche.
What Trump turf does he need to take him on on that he is currently not?
Is this code for saying Biden needs to dial up the racism?
No. But that's just what an idiot on his side with jelly for brains who's advising him to lose would say.
So let's look at the turf On the military Trump is turning a blind eye to Russian bounties on US soldiers. Biden is shining a spot light on this. On healthcare Trump is attempting to take way peoples healthcare through the courts. Biden is saying he'll defend people's healthcare plans. On the economy Trump is damaging rural Americans through nonsensical tradewars, Biden is saying he'll let Americans export again and make money. On law and order Trump has let America descend into chaos. Biden has said he will bring peace and calm.
What is the turf Biden should be fighting on? I am genuinely struggling here.
That post itself highlights your own bias and blindness.
He needs to come out strongly for law & order and say that whilst police brutality is unacceptable so are the actions of the protestors and he has zero tolerance for their burning and looting and the poor black and white people who suffer. However good the cause. Should he be President he will quash it without hesitation.
And please don't tell me he's already said this. He hasn't. Peace & calm is wet bollocks. Everyone wants that. People need to knows he's tough enough not to stand any nonsense, and not a thumb-sucking Leftie.
This isn't hard. Starmer manages to ride two horses at once.
So maybe some kind of simple direct to video speech where he unequivocally stars that the looting and burning is wrong and harms the very communities it happens in?
If the Tories don't win a majority in 2024, they will presumably either go UKIP 2.0 or back to Cameron-style politics
If the Tories lose in 2024 they will likely go UKIP 2.0 and further right as Labour when further left when it elected Ed Miliband and then Corbyn after defeat in 2010 and as the Tories went right before after defeat in 1997 when they elected Hague then IDS
The only senior Tory who polls better than Boris, sometimes, is Sunak and he would be best placed to win back Tory Remainers from Starmer by shifting to a softer Brexit.
However Boris is more likely to keep Tory Leavers from moving to Farage, at the moment a tie is manageable, if Labour went well ahead though then MPs would start to seriously get agitated
Well, quite.
The Conservative Party is nothing if not ruthless. It will happily remove a successful leader once he/she looks unsuccessful but only if there is an alternative who will ensure the party remains successful.
Boris Johnson's position is secure for now - he's not that much of a loser yet (were he 10-15 points behind labour it would be different) and while Sunak polls well, the hypothetical question of whether he would poll considerably better as PM than Johnson would only have impact if it was as marked as it was when Major/Heselltine were shown polling much better than Thatcher or when Johnson was shown as the only Conservative capable of winning the majority which had eluded May.
I don't it's feasible for it to be that secure in the long-term, because until the Brexit date he's simply straddling a tightrope. Once it goes through, either more business-minded or more nationalist-minded tories are going to be disappointed, and there's no way to get away from that. Either of those groups have the potential to take away exactly the 10-15% you're describing.
'Trump cut into Biden’s lead among voters in the suburbs: Before the convention, Biden led by 14 points (54 percent to 40 percent), but after the convention, he led by 8 points (50 percent to 42 percent).
Trump also improved his margin among white voters, leading Biden 51 percent to 43 percent on Friday compared with a 2-point edge earlier in the week. That included a 6-point gain in his advantage among white voters without a college degree, among whom he leads 57 percent to 36 percent.
At the same time, Trump left the convention with a slightly worse standing among voters of color, trailing Biden by 28 points among Hispanic voters (33 percent to 61 percent) and 74 points among Black voters (9 percent to 83 percent).' https://morningconsult.com/2020/08/29/post-rnc-poll-trump-bounce/
Trump led by 4 after the 2016 conventions but still lost the national vote by 2 in November. Biden leads by 6 now - also note the 16% Undecided in 2016 compared with just 7% now.
Tory Remainers going to Labour is a bad sign for the Lib Dems
Tory Remainers are sussing out who offers the most competent Government.
Boris Johnson is destroying the Union and the Conservative Party.
He's a stratospheric twat useful only for gags and interesting hair on the campaign trail. Aside from that he has zero uses.
I want him to fuck off into the night and to never hear from him again.
If the Tories conclude that the man is a liability - and especially if his cohort of Red Wall MPs, who have more reason than most to be loyal, nonetheless conclude that their seats are in serious danger if he stays - then the men in grey suits will visit. If Johnson doesn't decide he has had enough and retires on health grounds first, of course. But if that happens I wouldn't expect it to do so any time soon.
I want him gone next year.
If the Tories think they can pin Brexit on him and get a fresh leader to campaign to save the Union with, then they will do so.
An 11% swing in those seats would see Labour recapture every seat lost to the Tories in 2019 with the exception of Grimsby, Bassetlaw and Dudley North. Beyond that, the poll implies substantial gains elsewhere.
Tory Remainers going to Labour is a bad sign for the Lib Dems
Tory Remainers are sussing out who offers the most competent Government.
Boris Johnson is destroying the Union and the Conservative Party.
He's a stratospheric twat useful only for gags and interesting hair on the campaign trail. Aside from that he has zero uses.
I want him to fuck off into the night and to never hear from him again.
If the Tories conclude that the man is a liability - and especially if his cohort of Red Wall MPs, who have more reason than most to be loyal, nonetheless conclude that their seats are in serious danger if he stays - then the men in grey suits will visit. If Johnson doesn't decide he has had enough and retires on health grounds first, of course. But if that happens I wouldn't expect it to do so any time soon.
I want him gone next year.
If the Tories think they can pin Brexit on him and get a fresh leader to campaign to save the Union with, then they will do so.
The RNC was masterful in its brazenness, attacking the Democrats from both left and right with unparalleled viciousness and addressing key voting blocs directly. The DNC by contrast was bland and anaemic, conveying only that Joe Biden is a nice guy, which everyone knew already.
I still don't think Trump will win this, but they're really giving it some welly.
True, but the bullshit is blindingly obvious, and no longer novel. He’ll retain the already persuaded, but he’s not going to win back those who’ve decided their vote four years ago was a mistake.
It is worth remembering that Biden doesn't need to persuade any Trump voters to switch, he merely needs to persuade those who voted for Obama and didn't vote in 2016 to support him.
This is his current strategy, and I'd say it's a complacent and very risky one.
It smacks a bit of Ed Miliband's 35%.
A real winner would lead his party, and go out there and take on Trump on his own turf.
I want Trump gone. But I don't want an old David Miliband in the White House either.
Right now Biden is making me feel 3rd party again.
Douche.
What Trump turf does he need to take him on on that he is currently not?
Is this code for saying Biden needs to dial up the racism?
No. But that's just what an idiot on his side with jelly for brains who's advising him to lose would say.
So let's look at the turf On the military Trump is turning a blind eye to Russian bounties on US soldiers. Biden is shining a spot light on this. On healthcare Trump is attempting to take way peoples healthcare through the courts. Biden is saying he'll defend people's healthcare plans. On the economy Trump is damaging rural Americans through nonsensical tradewars, Biden is saying he'll let Americans export again and make money. On law and order Trump has let America descend into chaos. Biden has said he will bring peace and calm.
What is the turf Biden should be fighting on? I am genuinely struggling here.
That post itself highlights your own bias and blindness.
He needs to come out strongly for law & order and say that whilst police brutality is unacceptable so are the actions of the protestors and he has zero tolerance for their burning and looting and the poor black and white people who suffer. However good the cause. Should he be President he will quash it without hesitation.
And please don't tell me he's already said this. He hasn't. Peace & calm is wet bollocks. Everyone wants that. People need to knows he's tough enough not to stand any nonsense, and not a thumb-sucking Leftie.
This isn't hard. Starmer manages to ride two horses at once.
So maybe some kind of simple direct to video speech where he unequivocally stars that the looting and burning is wrong and harms the very communities it happens in?
I want Trump gone. I think he's totally unfit for office and a threat to the US Constitution and the cause of democracy worldwide. But, I don't disagree with all of his policies and I understand why many Americans voted for him. And it goes far deeper than just "Hillary".
If Biden wants to win he needs to be listening to people like me and ignoring complacent Leftie internet twats like you.
Hard truths but there it is. Unless you want Trump to win again.
'Trump cut into Biden’s lead among voters in the suburbs: Before the convention, Biden led by 14 points (54 percent to 40 percent), but after the convention, he led by 8 points (50 percent to 42 percent).
Trump also improved his margin among white voters, leading Biden 51 percent to 43 percent on Friday compared with a 2-point edge earlier in the week. That included a 6-point gain in his advantage among white voters without a college degree, among whom he leads 57 percent to 36 percent.
At the same time, Trump left the convention with a slightly worse standing among voters of color, trailing Biden by 28 points among Hispanic voters (33 percent to 61 percent) and 74 points among Black voters (9 percent to 83 percent).' https://morningconsult.com/2020/08/29/post-rnc-poll-trump-bounce/
Trump led by 4 after the 2016 conventions but still lost the national vote by 2 in November. Biden leads by 6 now - also note the 16% Undecided in 2016 compared with just 7% now.
Hillary took a clear lead after the DNC convention which was last in 2016 if you remember, this year Trump's convention is last, in 2016 it was first
36% say the BBC’s decision to have an instrumental performance of Land of Hope and Glory and Rule Britannia is bad, whereas 26% say it is a good decision.
How do they get such different answers to yesterday?
The comment on this issue has been entirely predictable and entirely depressing. It is based entirely on the basis that the justification given for the change is false. Ie. that a traditional performance would work very badly in an Albert Hall without audience (and further taking into account a desire to limit singing under Govt COVID guidelines. Even though it is incredibly plausible.
People have an interest in stating it has nothing to do with pure musical decisions. And so all comment on the subject is made on this basis.
Probably it’ll happen and those who are actually interested in the Proms as anything other than a political battleground will conclude that it was a good choice.
The BBC and others have been very good at moving institutional programmers in line with popular culture eg Edinburgh tattoo, festival of remembrance whilst retains the key core message or objective, for some reason they haven’t with the LNOP but it won’t be long before the musicians refuse to play music with words to which they object. The sooner the better Unless someone comes up with words that reflect the 21 century.
If the musicians aren’t willing to fulfil their contracts they won’t be hired
An 11% swing in those seats would see Labour recapture every seat lost to the Tories in 2019 with the exception of Grimsby, Bassetlaw and Dudley North. Beyond that, the poll implies substantial gains elsewhere.
Tories still lead 48% to 43% in seats Labour has lost since 2005 and Tories lead 47% to 37% in Conservative holds in 2019
'Trump cut into Biden’s lead among voters in the suburbs: Before the convention, Biden led by 14 points (54 percent to 40 percent), but after the convention, he led by 8 points (50 percent to 42 percent).
Trump also improved his margin among white voters, leading Biden 51 percent to 43 percent on Friday compared with a 2-point edge earlier in the week. That included a 6-point gain in his advantage among white voters without a college degree, among whom he leads 57 percent to 36 percent.
At the same time, Trump left the convention with a slightly worse standing among voters of color, trailing Biden by 28 points among Hispanic voters (33 percent to 61 percent) and 74 points among Black voters (9 percent to 83 percent).' https://morningconsult.com/2020/08/29/post-rnc-poll-trump-bounce/
Trump led by 4 after the 2016 conventions but still lost the national vote by 2 in November. Biden leads by 6 now - also note the 16% Undecided in 2016 compared with just 7% now.
Hillary took a clear lead after the DNC convention which was last in 2016 if you remember, this year Trump's convention is last, in 2016 it was first
Thanks - I'd forgotten.
Nonetheless, the lower percentage of Undecided voters still holds the key.
If the schools don't go back smoothly next week BoZo is in big trouble.
TeeHee.
They will go back next week and apart from a few isolated cases it will be fine, the big tests will come, or not, three weeks in and beyond so if people are sensible they won’t be heralding the return a success until the middle of October.
Sunak absolutely gets the gig if Shagger goes. Apart from the obvious point that he is gorgeous, he has shown himself to be adroitly flexible with his solutions to the economic crisis and mindful of presentation with the social media stuff he's put out.
A Tory PM who was directly responsible for so many people being able to put food on the table surely has to be an asset. Which undoubtedly is why they will appoint Chris Grayling instead.
If the schools don't go back smoothly next week BoZo is in big trouble.
TeeHee.
They will go back next week and apart from a few isolated cases it will be fine, the big tests will come, or not, three weeks in and beyond so if people are sensible they won’t be heralding the return a success until the middle of October.
If the virus shoots up then I'm not sure we should be saying back to school was a failure.
There has been no good evidence iirc that kids can transmit this in any meaningful impactful way, and they have vanishingly small chance of getting a serious illness from it. If schools do cause a major spike, then we will have found something new out.
An 11% swing in those seats would see Labour recapture every seat lost to the Tories in 2019 with the exception of Grimsby, Bassetlaw and Dudley North. Beyond that, the poll implies substantial gains elsewhere.
Tories still lead 48% to 43% in seats Labour has lost since 2005 and Tories lead 47% to 37% in Conservative holds in 2019
Not surprising . In reality though , I suspect Labour is much more likely to pick up the three seats I refer to above than other Tory seats which theoretically are now more marginal - such as Bournemouth East & Shoreham , Rushcliffe - Wycombe - or even Hendon.
If the schools don't go back smoothly next week BoZo is in big trouble.
TeeHee.
They will go back next week and apart from a few isolated cases it will be fine, the big tests will come, or not, three weeks in and beyond so if people are sensible they won’t be heralding the return a success until the middle of October.
If the virus shoots up then I'm not sure we should be saying back to school was a failure.
There has been no good evidence iirc that kids can transmit this in any meaningful impactful way, and they have vanishingly small chance of getting a serious illness from it. If schools do cause a major spike, then we will have found something new out.
They wont imho. We will be fine.
It’s not the children, it will be parents at the school gate and teachers working to closely, but children can be carriers.
If the schools don't go back smoothly next week BoZo is in big trouble.
TeeHee.
They will go back next week and apart from a few isolated cases it will be fine, the big tests will come, or not, three weeks in and beyond so if people are sensible they won’t be heralding the return a success until the middle of October.
If the virus shoots up then I'm not sure we should be saying back to school was a failure.
There has been no good evidence iirc that kids can transmit this in any meaningful impactful way, and they have vanishingly small chance of getting a serious illness from it. If schools do cause a major spike, then we will have found something new out.
They wont imho. We will be fine.
It’s not the children, it will be parents at the school gate and teachers working to closely, but children can be carriers.
The RNC was masterful in its brazenness, attacking the Democrats from both left and right with unparalleled viciousness and addressing key voting blocs directly. The DNC by contrast was bland and anaemic, conveying only that Joe Biden is a nice guy, which everyone knew already.
I still don't think Trump will win this, but they're really giving it some welly.
True, but the bullshit is blindingly obvious, and no longer novel. He’ll retain the already persuaded, but he’s not going to win back those who’ve decided their vote four years ago was a mistake.
It is worth remembering that Biden doesn't need to persuade any Trump voters to switch, he merely needs to persuade those who voted for Obama and didn't vote in 2016 to support him.
This is his current strategy, and I'd say it's a complacent and very risky one.
It smacks a bit of Ed Miliband's 35%.
A real winner would lead his party, and go out there and take on Trump on his own turf.
I want Trump gone. But I don't want an old David Miliband in the White House either.
Right now Biden is making me feel 3rd party again.
Douche.
What Trump turf does he need to take him on on that he is currently not?
Is this code for saying Biden needs to dial up the racism?
No. But that's just what an idiot on his side with jelly for brains who's advising him to lose would say.
So let's look at the turf On the military Trump is turning a blind eye to Russian bounties on US soldiers. Biden is shining a spot light on this. On healthcare Trump is attempting to take way peoples healthcare through the courts. Biden is saying he'll defend people's healthcare plans. On the economy Trump is damaging rural Americans through nonsensical tradewars, Biden is saying he'll let Americans export again and make money. On law and order Trump has let America descend into chaos. Biden has said he will bring peace and calm.
What is the turf Biden should be fighting on? I am genuinely struggling here.
That post itself highlights your own bias and blindness.
He needs to come out strongly for law & order and say that whilst police brutality is unacceptable so are the actions of the protestors and he has zero tolerance for their burning and looting and the poor black and white people who suffer. However good the cause. Should he be President he will quash it without hesitation.
And please don't tell me he's already said this. He hasn't. Peace & calm is wet bollocks. Everyone wants that. People need to knows he's tough enough not to stand any nonsense, and not a thumb-sucking Leftie.
This isn't hard. Starmer manages to ride two horses at once.
So maybe some kind of simple direct to video speech where he unequivocally stars that the looting and burning is wrong and harms the very communities it happens in?
I want Trump gone. I think he's totally unfit for office and a threat to the US Constitution and the cause of democracy worldwide. But, I don't disagree with all of his policies and I understand why many Americans voted for him. And it goes far deeper than just "Hillary".
If Biden wants to win he needs to be listening to people like me and ignoring complacent Leftie internet twats like you.
Hard truths but there it is. Unless you want Trump to win again.
Sorry.
You demand Biden does a thing. I provide evidence he has done the thing you have demanded of him. You call me a twat.
Sunak absolutely gets the gig if Shagger goes. Apart from the obvious point that he is gorgeous, he has shown himself to be adroitly flexible with his solutions to the economic crisis and mindful of presentation with the social media stuff he's put out.
A Tory PM who was directly responsible for so many people being able to put food on the table surely has to be an asset. Which undoubtedly is why they will appoint Chris Grayling instead.
Sunak would be well placed were Johnson to depart in the next 6 - 12 months.Beyond that, he will be dragged down by the economy. I suspect we have reached 'peak ' Sunak.
Start talking about the economy Biden, or you are toast.
Give them a reason to switch in the Rust Belt FFS.
The economy is the one measure where Trump consistently leads Biden albeit by a very small amount.
The polling "movement" is very small - we don't know if any "bounce" for Trump will last or whether it will be a post-Convention chimera.
You're right inasmuch as Biden has to argue what a Democratic administration will do in terms of the economy far more than he has but the pool of undecided voters is extremely small.
Biden leads by six but only 7% are still undecided.
I suspect the states that Biden will win won't necessarily be those Clinton lost by fractions last time but states like Arizona which are slightly less marginal.
Start talking about the economy Biden, or you are toast.
Give them a reason to switch in the Rust Belt FFS.
The economy is the one measure where Trump consistently leads Biden albeit by a very small amount.
The polling "movement" is very small - we don't know if any "bounce" for Trump will last or whether it will be a post-Convention chimera.
You're right inasmuch as Biden has to argue what a Democratic administration will do in terms of the economy far more than he has but the pool of undecided voters is extremely small.
Biden leads by six but only 7% are still undecided.
I suspect the states that Biden will win won't necessarily be those Clinton lost by fractions last time but states like Arizona which are slightly less marginal.
That's not an unreasonable view. Arizona has been trending democrat for a long time, and is becoming increasingly young and urban. It has also had no BLM protests at all (that I've seen), so the law and order message probably plays less well there.
Finally, Arizona has been a bit of a Corona disaster, and economic activity remains very subdued.
Sunak absolutely gets the gig if Shagger goes. Apart from the obvious point that he is gorgeous, he has shown himself to be adroitly flexible with his solutions to the economic crisis and mindful of presentation with the social media stuff he's put out.
A Tory PM who was directly responsible for so many people being able to put food on the table surely has to be an asset. Which undoubtedly is why they will appoint Chris Grayling instead.
An 11% swing in those seats would see Labour recapture every seat lost to the Tories in 2019 with the exception of Grimsby, Bassetlaw and Dudley North. Beyond that, the poll implies substantial gains elsewhere.
Tories still lead 48% to 43% in seats Labour has lost since 2005 and Tories lead 47% to 37% in Conservative holds in 2019
I'm worried that there is no objective evidence for this change in the odds. It's a market I don't feel comfortable in until the very end.
I think the odds are changing because of the civil disturbances. The Democrats are weak on law and order, and therefore if it becomes a law and order election, they suffer. (I'd also note that the location of the latest issues, in Wisconsin, is a particular problem for the Democrats, as that was one of the two or three states which seemed easiest for them to flip.)
The question is whether the disturbances continue and grow, or whether they quieten down again.
I suspect the second is more likely, but it only takes one or two incidents to change this.
I understand, but the disturbances have been going on for two months.
From my vantage point (Los Angeles), we saw protests and demonstrations post the Floyd murder, and the it went very quiet. Other parts of the US may be different.
The trouble for the Dems is every time a black person is shot or assaulted by a cop, BLM get angry and demonstrate, and undecided voters may get edgy.
Unfortunately it seems, an assault of some nature by a cop on a black person occurs very regularly.
I'm a WWC swing voter. I think America has a problem and I'm supportive of some change. I want to listen and learn. But, I love sport. It's a refuge from work, politics and domesticity. I love going to the game and losing myself in it.
Then, I see one of my favourite teams abandon a sports game and walk out due to their desire to make a BLM protest.
I see Joe Biden tweeting about it, and entirely in supportive of it.
I was on the fence. Is this going to make me more likely to support Joe Biden, or is it going to really piss me off?
So peaceful protest is beyond the pale, too ?
Your idea of what constitutes acceptable positions for Democrats seems... rather narrowly constrained.
Meanwhile the ongoing dumpster fire in the White House is just business as usual, I guess.
"Discussions have also been held over scrapping the various reliefs applied to CGT and replacing them with indexation allowances, meaning only gains in excess of inflation would be taxed."
The RNC was masterful in its brazenness, attacking the Democrats from both left and right with unparalleled viciousness and addressing key voting blocs directly. The DNC by contrast was bland and anaemic, conveying only that Joe Biden is a nice guy, which everyone knew already.
I still don't think Trump will win this, but they're really giving it some welly.
True, but the bullshit is blindingly obvious, and no longer novel. He’ll retain the already persuaded, but he’s not going to win back those who’ve decided their vote four years ago was a mistake.
It is worth remembering that Biden doesn't need to persuade any Trump voters to switch, he merely needs to persuade those who voted for Obama and didn't vote in 2016 to support him.
This is his current strategy, and I'd say it's a complacent and very risky one.
It smacks a bit of Ed Miliband's 35%.
A real winner would lead his party, and go out there and take on Trump on his own turf.
I want Trump gone. But I don't want an old David Miliband in the White House either.
Right now Biden is making me feel 3rd party again.
Douche.
What Trump turf does he need to take him on on that he is currently not?
Is this code for saying Biden needs to dial up the racism?
No. But that's just what an idiot on his side with jelly for brains who's advising him to lose would say.
So let's look at the turf On the military Trump is turning a blind eye to Russian bounties on US soldiers. Biden is shining a spot light on this. On healthcare Trump is attempting to take way peoples healthcare through the courts. Biden is saying he'll defend people's healthcare plans. On the economy Trump is damaging rural Americans through nonsensical tradewars, Biden is saying he'll let Americans export again and make money. On law and order Trump has let America descend into chaos. Biden has said he will bring peace and calm.
What is the turf Biden should be fighting on? I am genuinely struggling here.
Casino appears to want him to run as a moderate Republican.
The RNC was masterful in its brazenness, attacking the Democrats from both left and right with unparalleled viciousness and addressing key voting blocs directly. The DNC by contrast was bland and anaemic, conveying only that Joe Biden is a nice guy, which everyone knew already.
I still don't think Trump will win this, but they're really giving it some welly.
True, but the bullshit is blindingly obvious, and no longer novel. He’ll retain the already persuaded, but he’s not going to win back those who’ve decided their vote four years ago was a mistake.
It is worth remembering that Biden doesn't need to persuade any Trump voters to switch, he merely needs to persuade those who voted for Obama and didn't vote in 2016 to support him.
This is his current strategy, and I'd say it's a complacent and very risky one.
It smacks a bit of Ed Miliband's 35%.
A real winner would lead his party, and go out there and take on Trump on his own turf.
I want Trump gone. But I don't want an old David Miliband in the White House either.
Right now Biden is making me feel 3rd party again.
Douche.
What Trump turf does he need to take him on on that he is currently not?
Is this code for saying Biden needs to dial up the racism?
No. But that's just what an idiot on his side with jelly for brains who's advising him to lose would say.
So let's look at the turf On the military Trump is turning a blind eye to Russian bounties on US soldiers. Biden is shining a spot light on this. On healthcare Trump is attempting to take way peoples healthcare through the courts. Biden is saying he'll defend people's healthcare plans. On the economy Trump is damaging rural Americans through nonsensical tradewars, Biden is saying he'll let Americans export again and make money. On law and order Trump has let America descend into chaos. Biden has said he will bring peace and calm.
What is the turf Biden should be fighting on? I am genuinely struggling here.
Casino appears to want him to run as a moderate Republican.
Makes sense. We can see how a moderate Starmer has converted the Tories on here.
Sunak absolutely gets the gig if Shagger goes. Apart from the obvious point that he is gorgeous, he has shown himself to be adroitly flexible with his solutions to the economic crisis and mindful of presentation with the social media stuff he's put out.
A Tory PM who was directly responsible for so many people being able to put food on the table surely has to be an asset. Which undoubtedly is why they will appoint Chris Grayling instead.
How fast ? The partisan divide between intention to vote in person and by mail is enormous. Which will have consequences on election night.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bidens-supporters-appear-way-more-likely-to-vote-by-mail-than-trumps-that-could-make-for-a-weird-election-night/ ... Let’s do a quick-and-dirty exercise to show what I mean. In the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll overall, Biden led Trump by 9 percentage points among registered voters. But Biden led Trump by 63 points (!) among voters who planned to vote by mail, and Trump led Biden by 33 points among voters who planned to vote in person on Election Day. If this kind of partisan split occurred in every state, Biden would win the mail vote in all 50 states — from Alabama to Wyoming — and Trump would win the Election Day vote in all 50.
To be clear, I don’t expect Trump to be leading in all 50 states when the first results are reported on Nov. 3. For one thing, the partisan split between Election Day and mail votes will surely vary from state to state; I don’t literally think Trump will win the Election Day vote in every state, nor Biden the mail vote in every one. For another, Election Day votes aren’t the only results we’ll get on election night: We’ll also get early in-person votes in states that have early voting, which should make things look better for Biden. (Biden led Trump by 12 points among early in-person voters in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.) And some mail votes will probably be counted by the time we go to bed as well.
Nevertheless, the gap between the Election Day and mail vote could be huge this year, which should serve as a stark reminder not to overreact to election-night returns...
Comments
The point is that opinion polls flopping about give people something to hyperventilate over, but they have as much predictive value - especially four years out from an election - as Mystic Meg's crystal ball. Many polls in 1985 suggested that the Alliance was at approximate parity with, or even ahead of, the two large parties. Polling just four weeks prior to the 2017 election gave the Conservatives a 20pt lead.
Polling data might become relevant if Labour gains the ascendancy and holds it for a long time - long enough, perhaps, to bring disquiet about Johnson in his party to a head. Unless or until that happens, these numbers are meaningless.
which they object. The sooner the better Unless someone comes up with words that reflect the 21 century.
Boris Johnson is destroying the Union and the Conservative Party.
He's a stratospheric twat useful only for gags and interesting hair on the campaign trail. Aside from that he has zero uses.
I want him to fuck off into the night and to never hear from him again.
Vaccine in mid-October? Errrrrrr
However there are also plenty of middle class commuters in Epping and some old farming families who have been in the area for centuries, the East End only really arrived here after WW2 and the Blitz
However Boris is more likely to keep Tory Leavers from moving to Farage, at the moment a tie is manageable, if Labour went well ahead though then MPs would start to seriously get agitated
The mood music nowadays seems to be "ready to go to the regulators by Christmas, if we're lucky." Ho hum.
Trump also improved his margin among white voters, leading Biden 51 percent to 43 percent on Friday compared with a 2-point edge earlier in the week. That included a 6-point gain in his advantage among white voters without a college degree, among whom he leads 57 percent to 36 percent.
At the same time, Trump left the convention with a slightly worse standing among voters of color, trailing Biden by 28 points among Hispanic voters (33 percent to 61 percent) and 74 points among Black voters (9 percent to 83 percent).'
https://morningconsult.com/2020/08/29/post-rnc-poll-trump-bounce/
The Conservative Party is nothing if not ruthless. It will happily remove a successful leader once he/she looks unsuccessful but only if there is an alternative who will ensure the party remains successful.
Boris Johnson's position is secure for now - he's not that much of a loser yet (were he 10-15 points behind labour it would be different) and while Sunak polls well, the hypothetical question of whether he would poll considerably better as PM than Johnson would only have impact if it was as marked as it was when Major/Heselltine were shown polling much better than Thatcher or when Johnson was shown as the only Conservative capable of winning the majority which had eluded May.
You are right, he has never done that, oh, wait.
https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1298697722304888833?s=19
The hokey-cokey farce continues apace. I fear for the blood pressure of @IanB2 when he finds out...
If the Tories think they can pin Brexit on him and get a fresh leader to campaign to save the Union with, then they will do so.
The question is who.
TeeHee.
If Biden wants to win he needs to be listening to people like me and ignoring complacent Leftie internet twats like you.
Hard truths but there it is. Unless you want Trump to win again.
Sorry.
https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/VI-2020-08-26-Data-Tables.xlsx
Nonetheless, the lower percentage of Undecided voters still holds the key.
I want Gavin Williamson sacked.
Swiftly followed by Cummings.
And Gove.
And BoZo.
Start talking about the economy Biden, or you are toast.
Give them a reason to switch in the Rust Belt FFS.
A Tory PM who was directly responsible for so many people being able to put food on the table surely has to be an asset. Which undoubtedly is why they will appoint Chris Grayling instead.
There has been no good evidence iirc that kids can transmit this in any meaningful impactful way, and they have vanishingly small chance of getting a serious illness from it. If schools do cause a major spike, then we will have found something new out.
They wont imho. We will be fine.
We will see in a month or so.
Genuinely comical.
The polling "movement" is very small - we don't know if any "bounce" for Trump will last or whether it will be a post-Convention chimera.
You're right inasmuch as Biden has to argue what a Democratic administration will do in terms of the economy far more than he has but the pool of undecided voters is extremely small.
Biden leads by six but only 7% are still undecided.
I suspect the states that Biden will win won't necessarily be those Clinton lost by fractions last time but states like Arizona which are slightly less marginal.
(Auto-complete suggested Influenza!)
https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/1299735650783178752?s=20
The post conventions polling in 2016
https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1297221318782394368?s=20
So Biden up 7% on Hillary and Trump up 4% on where he was in 2016
He polls badly on healthcare and racism.
That is why the Dems talked solely about Healthcare in 2018 mid terms.
Finally, Arizona has been a bit of a Corona disaster, and economic activity remains very subdued.
Plenty have 15 000 plus Tory majorities now.
Your idea of what constitutes acceptable positions for Democrats seems... rather narrowly constrained.
Meanwhile the ongoing dumpster fire in the White House is just business as usual, I guess.
Telegraph.
Isn't that what we used to have?
https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/1299816013391896580
https://twitter.com/NinaDSchick/status/1299800259204395009?s=20
Not quite the numbers that the Kennedy nutcase was predicting.
'Some 38,000 people took part in a march that split into two main groups.'
The partisan divide between intention to vote in person and by mail is enormous. Which will have consequences on election night.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bidens-supporters-appear-way-more-likely-to-vote-by-mail-than-trumps-that-could-make-for-a-weird-election-night/
... Let’s do a quick-and-dirty exercise to show what I mean. In the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll overall, Biden led Trump by 9 percentage points among registered voters. But Biden led Trump by 63 points (!) among voters who planned to vote by mail, and Trump led Biden by 33 points among voters who planned to vote in person on Election Day. If this kind of partisan split occurred in every state, Biden would win the mail vote in all 50 states — from Alabama to Wyoming — and Trump would win the Election Day vote in all 50.
To be clear, I don’t expect Trump to be leading in all 50 states when the first results are reported on Nov. 3. For one thing, the partisan split between Election Day and mail votes will surely vary from state to state; I don’t literally think Trump will win the Election Day vote in every state, nor Biden the mail vote in every one. For another, Election Day votes aren’t the only results we’ll get on election night: We’ll also get early in-person votes in states that have early voting, which should make things look better for Biden. (Biden led Trump by 12 points among early in-person voters in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.) And some mail votes will probably be counted by the time we go to bed as well.
Nevertheless, the gap between the Election Day and mail vote could be huge this year, which should serve as a stark reminder not to overreact to election-night returns...