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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Whatever the WH2020 polls might be saying punters continue to bet heavily on Trump
We are just starting to see serious analysis of the Trump campaign following his party’s virtual convention this week. The New York Times had this key observation of the Trump campaign approach:
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I still don't think Trump will win this, but they're really giving it some welly.
This means that despite the case numbers (from Pillar 1 and 2 testing) rising, the actual infection rate, in the community, seems stable.
Either way I think it will be a shitshow. Disputed and lawyer and protesting mobs heavy.
Just the way Trump wants it.
Would be ironic if he genuinely won fairly, but had so undermined trust in the process that he was seen as illegitimate in the eyes of the World.
That is the reporting date number....
Interesting article about journalism.
"Given my time again, I wouldn’t choose journalism
The new generation of hacks are weak actors reliant on weak institutions
BY SARAH DITUM"
https://unherd.com/2020/08/given-my-time-again-i-wouldnt-choose-journalism/
For purposes of comparison, recent data indicate that an average of 5 people die each day in road traffic accidents, 18 people per day commit suicide, 31 die every day from breast cancer, and 32 from prostate cancer.
The interesting thing here is that the ONS reckons we are seeing 2200 infections per day. We are approaching one half of those being detected....
This and the data below are specimen date
Headline - 6
Last 7 days - 5
Yesterday - 0
Here in Calderdale you can see how it's spread out from Halifax to the other areas that Craig 'scum' Whittaker was claiming was fine. So what do they do but they release extra measures in areas here where cases are rising. Absolutely crazy.
The imbuggerance clearly hasn't gone away, but overall things continue to look mildly encouraging. Not much sign of significant concentrations of cases now outside the East Lancs-Greater Manchester-West Yorks Metropolitan Plague Zone, and my limited understanding (courtesy of reading the wise words of Professor Heneghan, this time writing for the Graun,) is that even there the cases aren't presently translating into significant pressure on the hospitals. To quote,
The watchlist figure of 50 per 100,000, therefore, does not consider the impact of the disease. Only nine people are currently in hospital with Covid-19 across the Pennine Trust hospitals that cover Oldham, Rochdale (also on the watchlist) and North Manchester. Increased testing leads to more detection of the virus, but it has not necessarily translated into infections that cause symptomatic disease. Many of those who have tested positive would be classed as weak positives – their risk of transmitting the disease further is low.
A bit, maybe, is the only conclusion I have.
we are testing more than them but, clearly, the difference in cases is not proportional.
A spike has appeared in Corby but it is an unusually small lower tier local authority, which makes the case rate per 100,000 look more alarming than it is. I spotted that myself a couple of days ago and tried to see if I could identify a cause in the local rag, but it was talking about a peak of all of twelve cases, which has freak chance event written all over it - although I have also read a suggestion from public health officials that modest case increases in both Corby and Kettering may be down to youngsters partying.
Wellingborough looks a great deal better and cases are negligible in the remaining three districts.
Still, I can't help but wonder if Trump might not be a bit of a lucky idiot - his incompetence / malice led to an early second wave that made him look dead and buried a month ago. But what if that enabled him to get the second wave over with, as it were, so that things at least look much better at the time of the election, and Trump benefits from the perceived improvement?
Which tells us that infection across the country is stable, at a low level.
The case numbers at https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ and elsewhere are those we have *found*.
Interesting that we are finding something like 1/3 to 1/2 of *all* infections.
Scottish independence: New Panelbase poll for Business for Scotland puts support behind Yes
Scots believe Scottish independence will be good for the country's economy, according to a new poll.
Some 55% of voters surveyed in a new Panelbase poll said a Yes vote would be good for the economy, representing a 10% lead in confidence in the independent economy of Scotland.
By Elle Duffy @ElleDuffy_ Multimedia Journalist
The poll also found that 70% of Scots have more confidence in the Scottish Government to manage the economy compared with Westminster
'Days after being flogged for drugs offences at the notorious Changi prison in Singapore, former British public schoolboy Ye Ming Yuen lies face down in his cell, in excruciating pain.
The open wounds from 24 strokes of a 4ft bamboo cane to his naked buttocks are so severe, they still ooze blood.
All he has is a towel to stem the flow. Sitting is impossible.
So horrific are his injuries that when a paralegal saw them this week, she almost fainted.
Unable to sleep, Yuen prays to God to calm his fears of long-term physical damage.
Bowel problems have plagued him since the caning.
Today we can reveal the brutal effects of the ‘judicial corporal punishment’ meted out to convicts in Singapore with an eye-witness account from Yuen’s human rights lawyer and his own words from prison.
London-born former public schoolboy Ye Ming Yuen, 31, was flogged naked in Singapore for drugs offences
‘The first thing Ming said when he came into the prison visiting room was “see this” and pulled his shorts down at the back and it just looked horrendous,’ says Ravi Madasamy, better known as M Ravi or Mr Ravi, who is contemplating legal action under international human rights law.
‘All over his buttocks were multiple marks and deep lacerations. It was so shocking my female paralegal who was with me almost fainted.
'The wounds were so deep with blood, flesh and layers of the skin exposed. He didn’t have any bandages, just a towel to put over the buttocks. He couldn’t sit for too long so he was standing up.
‘It was the first time I had seen raw injuries like this and it left me deeply affected, thinking, “How can this be allowed to happen in a civilised country?”
‘Usually my clients come to me years later, complaining of long-term injuries, so I only see the scars, so this was really shocking, but Ming wants the world to know the brutal reality of this barbaric punishment.’
This month the Mail exclusively revealed that Yuen had been stripped and flogged over a frame just one week after a last-ditch appeal for clemency failed.
Today, the 31-year-old is at the centre of a diplomatic row between Britain and Singapore over the caning, condemned by human rights campaigners as ‘inhuman, degrading and indecent'.
Politicians’ urge to intervene is a sign that the test-and-trace programme has failed.
My own pet theory is that the things that are keeping Covid-19 under control in the UK are, primarily, high levels of WFH (and the consequent abandonment of public transport,) and the effectiveness of the public messaging during the height of lockdown (which has both terrified and guilt-tripped the elderly and vulnerable so much that many of them are effectively still shielding.) Fortunately neither of these things requires Dido Harding to be an effective administrator.
The question is whether the disturbances continue and grow, or whether they quieten down again.
I suspect the second is more likely, but it only takes one or two incidents to change this.
https://unherd.com/thepost/prof-michael-levitt-heres-what-i-got-wrong/
Just like Brexit, the economy is the trump card of the defenders of the status quo. If enough of the electorate either doesn't believe them, or does but thinks that sovereignty or other issues are more important, then they're beaten.
The networks will be calling the states based on vote counts and exit polls.
If Fox News is calling Florida and Arizona and Michigan and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin for Biden, then I don't think he has any choice but to concede.
On the other hand, if the networks (and particularly Fox News) are not calling results and they're "too close to call", then I think you are absolutely correct.
Very few are dying or in hospital.
My recently announced confidence in a Biden victory may have to be revised...
The Government and a large chunk of the population are still very frightened of the disease, as will be confirmed if and when the first signs of a continental-style spike appear and there's an orgy of panic-flapping (likely to include masks ordered everywhere, press speculation about a second national lockdown, and possibly the closure of pubs.) Regardless of how much of the reaction is down to logic and how much due to blind, hysterical terror, we're not going to be able to re-establish a liveable, sustainable economy and society until a large enough majority of the populace is sufficiently reassured that it's safe to go about their business.
I don't actually think this will happen. But it is the risk.
They might be willing to still vote for independence but it will not help their economy at all
On that basis think it is safe to say he should be ignored from a scientific view however qualified and knowledgeable he is.
Let us park for a moment the reliability or otherwise of the GERS figures. If the Unionists fail to convince Scots that the transfer payments are important then a central plank of their argument is removed. If they succeed then that comes at the price of making English taxpayers think that the Scots are using their money to buy all sorts of goodies to which they, themselves, are not entitled. This is not a formula for success.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/lifestyle/health/comedian-ed-gamble-reveals-having-16495632
The search for a vaccine for the common cold was abandoned ~30 years ago, i.e. it wasn't cost-effective. Harsh for those whose health suffers but probably the right decision for society. It may be similar with SARS-COV-2. Prof. Levitt in his interview condemned the money being spent on track and trace compared to the benefit these £ billions could bring if they were spent elsewhere.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51012853
Trump now up to 55% approval with over 65s, 51% approval with white voters, 47% approval with men, 48% approval with voters earning $50 to $100k a year, 50% approval in the South and 48% approval in the MidWest.
However he still has a 58% disapproval rating with voters under 30, a 73% disapproval rating with black voters, a 53% disapproval rating with women and a 60% disappproval rating with voters in the West and a 53% disapproval rating with voters in the NorthEast.
And for a disease which, however allegedly uniquely dangerous compared to what has gone before, is effectively harmless to the vast majority of the population? However many anecdotal cases are cited to warn young people that they are risking their own health by not obeying “the rules” most recognise the reality that they really are not. They are asked to obey the rules for the health of others. Ultimately in the long run that is not sustainable.
https://twitter.com/simon_telegraph/status/1299399579054505987?s=20
I know, Nats n'facts......
He’ll retain the already persuaded, but he’s not going to win back those who’ve decided their vote four years ago was a mistake.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1299389870327115776
Long way to go, but the Trump ‘revival’ seems thus far to be wishful thinking.
How much control have the GOP got over voting administration in the key states?
However, when he made the suggestion, a key member of Corbyn’s office replied with a blunt message: “We don’t do deals with the Lib Dems. If people are so desperate to stay in the EU rather than have a socialist government that’s their choice.”"
lolololol
How much do you agree or disagree with the following statement?
“I have more confidence in the economic competence of the Scottish Government in Edinburgh than in the UK Government in Westminster.”
https://www.businessforscotland.com/poll-70-would-trust-scottish-government-with-powers-to-run-economy/
they have him down to a tee here
https://www.google.com/search?sxsrf=ALeKk00CFtCelySb3_Juj9aaO9GlqzF-1w:1598723541293&source=univ&tbm=isch&q=ronald+macdonald&client=firefox-b-d&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjF6Jam_cDrAhXoSxUIHcgnC30QsAR6BAgPEAE&biw=1280&bih=560
https://twitter.com/ThatTimWalker/status/1299682353107828737?s=20
https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1299766189787353088?s=20
The bigger the scale of the unjust bribes that are, or at the very least are perceived as being, thrown at Scotland, the greater the level of grumbling and the more likely some MPs in England and Wales are to start demanding the long overdue replacement of Barnett.
We should remember at this juncture that (a) this Government has been shown to be acutely vulnerable to pressure and (b) there are likely to be substantial numbers of Tory MPs who are indifferent to the survival of the Union - either because they don't view it as beneficial, or because they think the Unionist cause in Scotland is already lost. Unless they're desperate to obtain a ministerial position then there is little reason for them to toe the line on this matter.
If the chorus of malcontents grows large and noisy enough then the calculation system for the UK's transfer payments, which is essentially arcane and nonsensical, will start to move up the political agenda, to the great discomfort of the Government.
Do we?
What if the death and hospitalisation rate remains very low?
Jobs! Growth industry!
Yet the death graph is flat.
Yet another Tory scandal has emerged
Tory Peer Dido Harding has been paid a total of £175,000 of tax payers money for just 6 days work since starting an NHS Improvement role
Most board members waived their fee
The Government is now planning for a “reasonable worst case scenario” which explicitly predicts one third of excess deaths this winter will not be COVID related.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/28/donald-trump-2020-election-feels-like-2016
The current median age of the UK population is about 40 - thus, obviously, half of the population (about 33.3 million people) are under that age. According to the most recent NHS England weekly bulletin, Covid-19 has so far killed 235 people under the age of 40 (of whom 197 had underlying comorbidities.) Now, if we make two fairly reasonable assumptions - that there would have been very few if any deaths of under 40s from Covid-19 outside of hospitals in England, and that the death rate would've been similar in the rest of the country - then this would imply that approximately 280 people under 40 have so far died of the disease in the UK.
That would, in turn, suggest a death rate for the pandemic so far of around 8 per million for the younger half of the population as whole, or about one in a million for those who are otherwise healthy.
It is on this basis that the young are being told not merely to be a bit careful with masks, and social distancing, and staying away from Granny, but also not to go to parties, to visit each others' homes (except under quite narrow restrictions,) or to date, form new relationships and have sex. If not all of them follow these edicts to the letter 100% of the time then we should not be entirely surprised.
Biden needs to call Bill and discuss how to change the subject onto the economy. Urgently.
Likewise competence. If the government don't make a complete horlicks of an issue (handled badly but not a complete disaster) I am beginning to accept they have been competent.