It perhaps needs to be remembered that the effect of the 2015 electoral earthquake in Scotland was to knock 2% off Labour's GB vote share. A 2% Tory lead today,therefore, is the equivalent of level pegging pre-2015 - at least with regard to England & Wales.
Yougov voteshare by region today in England and Wales
GDP grew by 5.7pc in June, falling short of the 8.7pc surge recorded nationally.
It came after the economy shrank by 5.8pc in March and 19.2pc in April - both extremely large drops, but less severe than the UK-wide collapse.
But despite this better starting position, growth has been slower since April.
As a result, the Scottish economy was still 17.6pc smaller in June than it was in February, meaning it has effectively been overtaken by the rest of the country. The British economy overall is now 17.2pc smaller than it was before the pandemic struck.
ooooooooooh panic , 0.4% on one months data , end of the world is nigh.
It's 8.7% national growth in June vs 5.7% in Scotland for June. We know the national picture is about 8% for July if Scotland repeats with 6% the gap gets wider. Sturgeon is fucking up the Scottish economy, I also don't understand why, the pandemic is over in Scotland, it has been since the end of May.
The closer a country gets to eliminating the Plague then...
*The more any small outbreaks are magnified and scare people *The less evidence is needed that the dreaded Second Wave is about to crash upon the shore, and *The greater the tendency towards Draconian responses to crush it
See New Zealand, where a small cluster in Auckland resulted in the lockdown of the entire city (about a third of the country's population) and the General Election being put back by a month.
Scotland and Northern Ireland, whilst obviously not being identical cases, are both closer to elimination than England and Wales. That could be part of the explanation for Sturgeon's reluctance to unshutter the economy, and the Northern Ireland health minister suggesting reimposing restrictions despite the fact that his hospitals are down to their last four Covid patients.
In a couple of weeks less than 0.25% of hospital beds will be taken up by covid positive patients. To continue living the restricted life we are when Covid is almost a medical irrelevance to the NHS is plain daft.
FPT - Since you like to ignore reality I'll tell you again:
Well - if it is similar to the Spanish pattern many of the new cases were in the younger age groups doing the things they do. However, a few weeks on and now olde relatives and even old people's homes are again being infected and both the hospital admissions and deaths are rising too. The Spanish health minister reckong the majority of outbrekas are family related. I think the death rate will be lower this time round as there have been some treatment advances. The idea that we don't have to worry is I think mistaken.
Well, the supposed Leicester hotspot started 6 weeks ago, in overcrowded multigenerational households, yet the local hospitalisations are down six fold. They should be appearing by now. It is genuinely hard to explain.
While obviously hospitalisations and deaths are a trailing indicator, the KCL Covid app suggests population symptoms are down too. We are clearly missing some of the picture.
Personally, I would keep music and nightclubs closed, discourage international travel and for the remainder of activities to resume with careful hygiene, masks and social distancing, and keep a watchful eye on the figures.
My guess is that this is down to a combination of high levels of public take-up of masks, compliance with regulations amongst the overwhelming majority of businesses, exceptionally high levels of working from home relative to many other European countries, and a lot of voluntary self-segregation by vulnerable groups.
Having parents who are old enough to be counted as vulnerable, I know at least anecdotally how people who may be reasonably healthy for their age and not prone to hysteria are nonetheless taking this disease very seriously indeed. My Dad in particular is very cautious; he could be persuaded to go to an outdoor dining venue with us about three weeks ago but other than that I think he's still living pretty much as if it were April, other than the fact that he sees one close friend regularly (who's effectively the other half of his support bubble, I suppose) and his brother and sister from time to time.
In terms of what we can get away with opening, at this stage I think we'd probably agree quite closely. I think that nightclubs, rock concerts, choirs and packed football stadiums are off limits for the duration of this crisis, but just about everything else should be doable with caution. Following the announcement a few weeks back of the arts rescue package, I wonder whether or not the Government has given consideration to telling the theatres to re-open, operate at a loss and top up their balance sheets with grants?
EDIT: and yes, international travel is also a terrible idea under current circumstances - you risk getting caught out big time both by our Government's ever-changing restrictions and by those of the countries that you're visiting. I dare say that the Foreign Office advice against non-essential travel was probably relaxed to try to prop up travel agencies and tour operators, but frankly they'd have been better off lobbing money at them instead.
Anyone know why WFH isn’t anywhere near as popular in Berlin, Madrid and Paris as in London? The numbers are absolutely stark.
All these Oxbridge degrees and PBers still can’t bloody spell the given name of the Loto.
K
E
I
R
FFS
Kier Group was the first engineering company to introduce contiguous cylindrical reinforced concrete grain silos (Barking, 1929). I had hoped my reference was sufficiently obvious not to require footnoting.
Elephant traps, elephant traps...
Keir Hardie first became an MP decades earlier in 1892.
I know this may be a betrayal but right now he would be a huge improvement on Boris
Seriously, what would he have done differently? His criticisms are at the margins, really.
The danger for the government so far is process, not policy. It's beginning to give the impression it can't plan for the long-term in any number of emergency, unchosen areas. In the autumn this issue of ad hoc and emergency planning is going to collide with its actively chosen, distinct policy positions on Brexit, which is where the problems may really start.
That's why the tories won;t get rid until next year, in my view. They want Johnson to wear the economic crisis, wear Brexit, then start anew.
Big decision coming up for Sunak though.
They will get smeared with the incompetence brush just as much as Johnson will.
Maybe. They still have four years and a big majority. And I don;t sense Starmer is really that popular.
GDP grew by 5.7pc in June, falling short of the 8.7pc surge recorded nationally.
It came after the economy shrank by 5.8pc in March and 19.2pc in April - both extremely large drops, but less severe than the UK-wide collapse.
But despite this better starting position, growth has been slower since April.
As a result, the Scottish economy was still 17.6pc smaller in June than it was in February, meaning it has effectively been overtaken by the rest of the country. The British economy overall is now 17.2pc smaller than it was before the pandemic struck.
ooooooooooh panic , 0.4% on one months data , end of the world is nigh.
It's 8.7% national growth in June vs 5.7% in Scotland for June. We know the national picture is about 8% for July if Scotland repeats with 6% the gap gets wider. Sturgeon is fucking up the Scottish economy, I also don't understand why, the pandemic is over in Scotland, it has been since the end of May.
If she stops then she has to start up indyref2 again so she is bricking it.
That's terrible decision making if it's true. 3 months from now if England and Wales have recovered to ~95% of the pre virus economy (which looks likely) and Scotland hasn't the blame gets laid at her door, she can't even blame London for it given its all been in her hands. That slower recovery compared to rUK and, more widely, Europe would be very tough to explain away.
GDP grew by 5.7pc in June, falling short of the 8.7pc surge recorded nationally.
It came after the economy shrank by 5.8pc in March and 19.2pc in April - both extremely large drops, but less severe than the UK-wide collapse.
But despite this better starting position, growth has been slower since April.
As a result, the Scottish economy was still 17.6pc smaller in June than it was in February, meaning it has effectively been overtaken by the rest of the country. The British economy overall is now 17.2pc smaller than it was before the pandemic struck.
ooooooooooh panic , 0.4% on one months data , end of the world is nigh.
The way Sturgeon has closed down Scotland's economy is going to become fairly stark over the next few months
All the other nations have opened their economies much more and here in North Wales tourism is as good as it is normally
WE shall see, I hear Tory doom merchants bad mouthing Scotland on a daily basis .
No. It's the SNP, which is not the same as Scotland
All these Oxbridge degrees and PBers still can’t bloody spell the given name of the Loto.
K
E
I
R
FFS
Kier Group was the first engineering company to introduce contiguous cylindrical reinforced concrete grain silos (Barking, 1929). I had hoped my reference was sufficiently obvious not to require footnoting.
Elephant traps, elephant traps...
Keir Hardie first became an MP decades earlier in 1892.
GDP grew by 5.7pc in June, falling short of the 8.7pc surge recorded nationally.
It came after the economy shrank by 5.8pc in March and 19.2pc in April - both extremely large drops, but less severe than the UK-wide collapse.
But despite this better starting position, growth has been slower since April.
As a result, the Scottish economy was still 17.6pc smaller in June than it was in February, meaning it has effectively been overtaken by the rest of the country. The British economy overall is now 17.2pc smaller than it was before the pandemic struck.
ooooooooooh panic , 0.4% on one months data , end of the world is nigh.
It's 8.7% national growth in June vs 5.7% in Scotland for June. We know the national picture is about 8% for July if Scotland repeats with 6% the gap gets wider. Sturgeon is fucking up the Scottish economy, I also don't understand why, the pandemic is over in Scotland, it has been since the end of May.
The closer a country gets to eliminating the Plague then...
*The more any small outbreaks are magnified and scare people *The less evidence is needed that the dreaded Second Wave is about to crash upon the shore, and *The greater the tendency towards Draconian responses to crush it
See New Zealand, where a small cluster in Auckland resulted in the lockdown of the entire city (about a third of the country's population) and the General Election being put back by a month.
Scotland and Northern Ireland, whilst obviously not being identical cases, are both closer to elimination than England and Wales. That could be part of the explanation for Sturgeon's reluctance to unshutter the economy, and the Northern Ireland health minister suggesting reimposing restrictions despite the fact that his hospitals are down to their last four Covid patients.
That's a crazy way to run an economy. NZ is the poster child for stupid IMO, why crash the economy for a second time over 9 cases.
In a couple of weeks less than 0.25% of hospital beds will be taken up by covid positive patients. To continue living the restricted life we are when Covid is almost a medical irrelevance to the NHS is plain daft.
FPT - Since you like to ignore reality I'll tell you again:
Well - if it is similar to the Spanish pattern many of the new cases were in the younger age groups doing the things they do. However, a few weeks on and now olde relatives and even old people's homes are again being infected and both the hospital admissions and deaths are rising too. The Spanish health minister reckong the majority of outbrekas are family related. I think the death rate will be lower this time round as there have been some treatment advances. The idea that we don't have to worry is I think mistaken.
Well, the supposed Leicester hotspot started 6 weeks ago, in overcrowded multigenerational households, yet the local hospitalisations are down six fold. They should be appearing by now. It is genuinely hard to explain.
While obviously hospitalisations and deaths are a trailing indicator, the KCL Covid app suggests population symptoms are down too. We are clearly missing some of the picture.
Personally, I would keep music and nightclubs closed, discourage international travel and for the remainder of activities to resume with careful hygiene, masks and social distancing, and keep a watchful eye on the figures.
My guess is that this is down to a combination of high levels of public take-up of masks, compliance with regulations amongst the overwhelming majority of businesses, exceptionally high levels of working from home relative to many other European countries, and a lot of voluntary self-segregation by vulnerable groups.
Having parents who are old enough to be counted as vulnerable, I know at least anecdotally how people who may be reasonably healthy for their age and not prone to hysteria are nonetheless taking this disease very seriously indeed. My Dad in particular is very cautious; he could be persuaded to go to an outdoor dining venue with us about three weeks ago but other than that I think he's still living pretty much as if it were April, other than the fact that he sees one close friend regularly (who's effectively the other half of his support bubble, I suppose) and his brother and sister from time to time.
In terms of what we can get away with opening, at this stage I think we'd probably agree quite closely. I think that nightclubs, rock concerts, choirs and packed football stadiums are off limits for the duration of this crisis, but just about everything else should be doable with caution. Following the announcement a few weeks back of the arts rescue package, I wonder whether or not the Government has given consideration to telling the theatres to re-open, operate at a loss and top up their balance sheets with grants?
EDIT: and yes, international travel is also a terrible idea under current circumstances - you risk getting caught out big time both by our Government's ever-changing restrictions and by those of the countries that you're visiting. I dare say that the Foreign Office advice against non-essential travel was probably relaxed to try to prop up travel agencies and tour operators, but frankly they'd have been better off lobbing money at them instead.
Anyone know why WFH isn’t anywhere near as popular in Berlin, Madrid and Paris as in London? The numbers are absolutely stark.
In Madrid it’s probably apartment living reducing opportunity to have a work space that’s effective. Work is still a social event with proper menu del dia lunch taken with colleagues So a habit more difficult to break.
If Labour is able to establish a lead in coming months, it might affect the dynamics in Scotland a bit. The serious prospect of ousting Johnson and the Tories - albeit 3 years later - might be sufficient to pull back defectors to the SNP next May.
I share this with you Malc
We do not agree on much but Justin does not have clue
He is Labour's HYFUD
I am not a Labour member - and voted Green in 2019.
In a couple of weeks less than 0.25% of hospital beds will be taken up by covid positive patients. To continue living the restricted life we are when Covid is almost a medical irrelevance to the NHS is plain daft.
FPT - Since you like to ignore reality I'll tell you again:
Well - if it is similar to the Spanish pattern many of the new cases were in the younger age groups doing the things they do. However, a few weeks on and now olde relatives and even old people's homes are again being infected and both the hospital admissions and deaths are rising too. The Spanish health minister reckong the majority of outbrekas are family related. I think the death rate will be lower this time round as there have been some treatment advances. The idea that we don't have to worry is I think mistaken.
Well, the supposed Leicester hotspot started 6 weeks ago, in overcrowded multigenerational households, yet the local hospitalisations are down six fold. They should be appearing by now. It is genuinely hard to explain.
While obviously hospitalisations and deaths are a trailing indicator, the KCL Covid app suggests population symptoms are down too. We are clearly missing some of the picture.
Personally, I would keep music and nightclubs closed, discourage international travel and for the remainder of activities to resume with careful hygiene, masks and social distancing, and keep a watchful eye on the figures.
My guess is that this is down to a combination of high levels of public take-up of masks, compliance with regulations amongst the overwhelming majority of businesses, exceptionally high levels of working from home relative to many other European countries, and a lot of voluntary self-segregation by vulnerable groups.
Having parents who are old enough to be counted as vulnerable, I know at least anecdotally how people who may be reasonably healthy for their age and not prone to hysteria are nonetheless taking this disease very seriously indeed. My Dad in particular is very cautious; he could be persuaded to go to an outdoor dining venue with us about three weeks ago but other than that I think he's still living pretty much as if it were April, other than the fact that he sees one close friend regularly (who's effectively the other half of his support bubble, I suppose) and his brother and sister from time to time.
In terms of what we can get away with opening, at this stage I think we'd probably agree quite closely. I think that nightclubs, rock concerts, choirs and packed football stadiums are off limits for the duration of this crisis, but just about everything else should be doable with caution. Following the announcement a few weeks back of the arts rescue package, I wonder whether or not the Government has given consideration to telling the theatres to re-open, operate at a loss and top up their balance sheets with grants?
EDIT: and yes, international travel is also a terrible idea under current circumstances - you risk getting caught out big time both by our Government's ever-changing restrictions and by those of the countries that you're visiting. I dare say that the Foreign Office advice against non-essential travel was probably relaxed to try to prop up travel agencies and tour operators, but frankly they'd have been better off lobbing money at them instead.
Anyone know why WFH isn’t anywhere near as popular in Berlin, Madrid and Paris as in London? The numbers are absolutely stark.
I can only speak from second hand knowledge of European friends - they mainly say that employers are far less trusting in Europe than in England where flexible working and wfh is already fairly common place. That's why it's been easier for UK plc to adjust to the new normal compared to Europe and a lot of the advanced "activity" indicators for the UK economy aren't as accurate, especially when used by overseas analysts who don't understand the scale of wfh in the UK. Iirc one of those advanced activity models predicted 4.5% growth in June based on traffic and public transport statistics and POS data from high street cafés and restaurants but it came in at 8.7% because so many people are WFH.
This Government is destroying the Union day by day.
People on here were warning about this back in 2016 and that was with a more Conservative govt than the UKIP-lite we have now.
You are a beautiful example of the phenomena I've just posted about in response to @MaxPB
You have been driven mad by Brexit, and are now delighted that there's a new course of revenge that's potentially about to get served up on the table.
I do find it ironic that people insist that taking back control is ok regardless of the economic costs but it's not OK to give control back to a different group of people.
The only person I can think of on this site who is adamant there should be no second referendum even if the Scots vote to hold one is HYUFD - and he's a Remainer.
Not entirely. The result of a Holyrood election which sees turnout of circa 50% should not override a Referendum in respect of which 85% voted. The lower turnout for Holyrood v Westminster too would tend to suggest that voters in Scotland see it as a lower or secondary tier of authority.
The Holyrood election won't be overriding the Referendum. Overriding the referendum would be taking an SNP majority as a Yes vote. Instead the Holyrood election would merely set the stage for a new vote. Only a Yes Referendum can overturn the No.
As for lower turnout there is a very simple rule in politics: If you don't vote, you can't complain. If the 35% who didn't vote all don't want a second referendum then they should vote to say so. If they don't, that's their choice.
Labour still have a bit of work to do in the Midlands.
Labour has an enormous amount of work to do almost everywhere South of the Humber, save for inner London. The fact that the Tories aren't doing worse isn't merely, as was suggested earlier, a product of the extraordinary circumstances created by Brexit and the Plague. Labour also has a dreadful image problem.
In a couple of weeks less than 0.25% of hospital beds will be taken up by covid positive patients. To continue living the restricted life we are when Covid is almost a medical irrelevance to the NHS is plain daft.
FPT - Since you like to ignore reality I'll tell you again:
Well - if it is similar to the Spanish pattern many of the new cases were in the younger age groups doing the things they do. However, a few weeks on and now olde relatives and even old people's homes are again being infected and both the hospital admissions and deaths are rising too. The Spanish health minister reckong the majority of outbrekas are family related. I think the death rate will be lower this time round as there have been some treatment advances. The idea that we don't have to worry is I think mistaken.
Well, the supposed Leicester hotspot started 6 weeks ago, in overcrowded multigenerational households, yet the local hospitalisations are down six fold. They should be appearing by now. It is genuinely hard to explain.
While obviously hospitalisations and deaths are a trailing indicator, the KCL Covid app suggests population symptoms are down too. We are clearly missing some of the picture.
Personally, I would keep music and nightclubs closed, discourage international travel and for the remainder of activities to resume with careful hygiene, masks and social distancing, and keep a watchful eye on the figures.
My guess is that this is down to a combination of high levels of public take-up of masks, compliance with regulations amongst the overwhelming majority of businesses, exceptionally high levels of working from home relative to many other European countries, and a lot of voluntary self-segregation by vulnerable groups.
Having parents who are old enough to be counted as vulnerable, I know at least anecdotally how people who may be reasonably healthy for their age and not prone to hysteria are nonetheless taking this disease very seriously indeed. My Dad in particular is very cautious; he could be persuaded to go to an outdoor dining venue with us about three weeks ago but other than that I think he's still living pretty much as if it were April, other than the fact that he sees one close friend regularly (who's effectively the other half of his support bubble, I suppose) and his brother and sister from time to time.
In terms of what we can get away with opening, at this stage I think we'd probably agree quite closely. I think that nightclubs, rock concerts, choirs and packed football stadiums are off limits for the duration of this crisis, but just about everything else should be doable with caution. Following the announcement a few weeks back of the arts rescue package, I wonder whether or not the Government has given consideration to telling the theatres to re-open, operate at a loss and top up their balance sheets with grants?
EDIT: and yes, international travel is also a terrible idea under current circumstances - you risk getting caught out big time both by our Government's ever-changing restrictions and by those of the countries that you're visiting. I dare say that the Foreign Office advice against non-essential travel was probably relaxed to try to prop up travel agencies and tour operators, but frankly they'd have been better off lobbing money at them instead.
Anyone know why WFH isn’t anywhere near as popular in Berlin, Madrid and Paris as in London? The numbers are absolutely stark.
I can only speak from second hand knowledge of European friends - they mainly say that employers are far less trusting in Europe than in England where flexible working and wfh is already fairly common place. That's why it's been easier for UK plc to adjust to the new normal compared to Europe and a lot of the advanced "activity" indicators for the UK economy aren't as accurate, especially when used by overseas analysts who don't understand the scale of wfh in the UK. Iirc one of those advanced activity models predicted 4.5% growth in June based on traffic and public transport statistics and POS data from high street cafés and restaurants but it came in at 8.7% because so many people are WFH.
What's the latest you are seeing on bounceback levels Mr Max? some big numbers coming up later in the week.
In a couple of weeks less than 0.25% of hospital beds will be taken up by covid positive patients. To continue living the restricted life we are when Covid is almost a medical irrelevance to the NHS is plain daft.
FPT - Since you like to ignore reality I'll tell you again:
Well - if it is similar to the Spanish pattern many of the new cases were in the younger age groups doing the things they do. However, a few weeks on and now olde relatives and even old people's homes are again being infected and both the hospital admissions and deaths are rising too. The Spanish health minister reckong the majority of outbrekas are family related. I think the death rate will be lower this time round as there have been some treatment advances. The idea that we don't have to worry is I think mistaken.
Well, the supposed Leicester hotspot started 6 weeks ago, in overcrowded multigenerational households, yet the local hospitalisations are down six fold. They should be appearing by now. It is genuinely hard to explain.
While obviously hospitalisations and deaths are a trailing indicator, the KCL Covid app suggests population symptoms are down too. We are clearly missing some of the picture.
Personally, I would keep music and nightclubs closed, discourage international travel and for the remainder of activities to resume with careful hygiene, masks and social distancing, and keep a watchful eye on the figures.
My guess is that this is down to a combination of high levels of public take-up of masks, compliance with regulations amongst the overwhelming majority of businesses, exceptionally high levels of working from home relative to many other European countries, and a lot of voluntary self-segregation by vulnerable groups.
Having parents who are old enough to be counted as vulnerable, I know at least anecdotally how people who may be reasonably healthy for their age and not prone to hysteria are nonetheless taking this disease very seriously indeed. My Dad in particular is very cautious; he could be persuaded to go to an outdoor dining venue with us about three weeks ago but other than that I think he's still living pretty much as if it were April, other than the fact that he sees one close friend regularly (who's effectively the other half of his support bubble, I suppose) and his brother and sister from time to time.
In terms of what we can get away with opening, at this stage I think we'd probably agree quite closely. I think that nightclubs, rock concerts, choirs and packed football stadiums are off limits for the duration of this crisis, but just about everything else should be doable with caution. Following the announcement a few weeks back of the arts rescue package, I wonder whether or not the Government has given consideration to telling the theatres to re-open, operate at a loss and top up their balance sheets with grants?
EDIT: and yes, international travel is also a terrible idea under current circumstances - you risk getting caught out big time both by our Government's ever-changing restrictions and by those of the countries that you're visiting. I dare say that the Foreign Office advice against non-essential travel was probably relaxed to try to prop up travel agencies and tour operators, but frankly they'd have been better off lobbing money at them instead.
Anyone know why WFH isn’t anywhere near as popular in Berlin, Madrid and Paris as in London? The numbers are absolutely stark.
I can only speak from second hand knowledge of European friends - they mainly say that employers are far less trusting in Europe than in England where flexible working and wfh is already fairly common place. That's why it's been easier for UK plc to adjust to the new normal compared to Europe and a lot of the advanced "activity" indicators for the UK economy aren't as accurate, especially when used by overseas analysts who don't understand the scale of wfh in the UK. Iirc one of those advanced activity models predicted 4.5% growth in June based on traffic and public transport statistics and POS data from high street cafés and restaurants but it came in at 8.7% because so many people are WFH.
What's the latest you are seeing on bounceback levels Mr Max? some big numbers coming up later in the week.
In a couple of weeks less than 0.25% of hospital beds will be taken up by covid positive patients. To continue living the restricted life we are when Covid is almost a medical irrelevance to the NHS is plain daft.
FPT - Since you like to ignore reality I'll tell you again:
Well - if it is similar to the Spanish pattern many of the new cases were in the younger age groups doing the things they do. However, a few weeks on and now olde relatives and even old people's homes are again being infected and both the hospital admissions and deaths are rising too. The Spanish health minister reckong the majority of outbrekas are family related. I think the death rate will be lower this time round as there have been some treatment advances. The idea that we don't have to worry is I think mistaken.
Well, the supposed Leicester hotspot started 6 weeks ago, in overcrowded multigenerational households, yet the local hospitalisations are down six fold. They should be appearing by now. It is genuinely hard to explain.
While obviously hospitalisations and deaths are a trailing indicator, the KCL Covid app suggests population symptoms are down too. We are clearly missing some of the picture.
Personally, I would keep music and nightclubs closed, discourage international travel and for the remainder of activities to resume with careful hygiene, masks and social distancing, and keep a watchful eye on the figures.
My guess is that this is down to a combination of high levels of public take-up of masks, compliance with regulations amongst the overwhelming majority of businesses, exceptionally high levels of working from home relative to many other European countries, and a lot of voluntary self-segregation by vulnerable groups.
Having parents who are old enough to be counted as vulnerable, I know at least anecdotally how people who may be reasonably healthy for their age and not prone to hysteria are nonetheless taking this disease very seriously indeed. My Dad in particular is very cautious; he could be persuaded to go to an outdoor dining venue with us about three weeks ago but other than that I think he's still living pretty much as if it were April, other than the fact that he sees one close friend regularly (who's effectively the other half of his support bubble, I suppose) and his brother and sister from time to time.
In terms of what we can get away with opening, at this stage I think we'd probably agree quite closely. I think that nightclubs, rock concerts, choirs and packed football stadiums are off limits for the duration of this crisis, but just about everything else should be doable with caution. Following the announcement a few weeks back of the arts rescue package, I wonder whether or not the Government has given consideration to telling the theatres to re-open, operate at a loss and top up their balance sheets with grants?
EDIT: and yes, international travel is also a terrible idea under current circumstances - you risk getting caught out big time both by our Government's ever-changing restrictions and by those of the countries that you're visiting. I dare say that the Foreign Office advice against non-essential travel was probably relaxed to try to prop up travel agencies and tour operators, but frankly they'd have been better off lobbing money at them instead.
Anyone know why WFH isn’t anywhere near as popular in Berlin, Madrid and Paris as in London? The numbers are absolutely stark.
I can only speak from second hand knowledge of European friends - they mainly say that employers are far less trusting in Europe than in England where flexible working and wfh is already fairly common place. That's why it's been easier for UK plc to adjust to the new normal compared to Europe and a lot of the advanced "activity" indicators for the UK economy aren't as accurate, especially when used by overseas analysts who don't understand the scale of wfh in the UK. Iirc one of those advanced activity models predicted 4.5% growth in June based on traffic and public transport statistics and POS data from high street cafés and restaurants but it came in at 8.7% because so many people are WFH.
Makes sense. I have a mate who works in London for a Spanish company. The founder is “against” WFH apparently. They all WFH anyway a few days a week but make sure they are all in the office when the founder visits - about five times a year.
If Labour is able to establish a lead in coming months, it might affect the dynamics in Scotland a bit. The serious prospect of ousting Johnson and the Tories - albeit 3 years later - might be sufficient to pull back defectors to the SNP next May.
I share this with you Malc
We do not agree on much but Justin does not have clue
He is Labour's HYFUD
I am not a Labour member - and voted Green in 2019.
I can't see Labour winning more than a dozen seats in Scotland in 2024 even in a scenario where they are on 40% of the GB vote.
Danger for the SNP is more that a lot of their voters who voted for them in 2015 and 2019 get disillusioned by Sturgeon's failure to deliver an independence referendum between now and 2024 and stay at home in large numbers like they did in 2017.
In a couple of weeks less than 0.25% of hospital beds will be taken up by covid positive patients. To continue living the restricted life we are when Covid is almost a medical irrelevance to the NHS is plain daft.
FPT - Since you like to ignore reality I'll tell you again:
Well - if it is similar to the Spanish pattern many of the new cases were in the younger age groups doing the things they do. However, a few weeks on and now olde relatives and even old people's homes are again being infected and both the hospital admissions and deaths are rising too. The Spanish health minister reckong the majority of outbrekas are family related. I think the death rate will be lower this time round as there have been some treatment advances. The idea that we don't have to worry is I think mistaken.
Well, the supposed Leicester hotspot started 6 weeks ago, in overcrowded multigenerational households, yet the local hospitalisations are down six fold. They should be appearing by now. It is genuinely hard to explain.
While obviously hospitalisations and deaths are a trailing indicator, the KCL Covid app suggests population symptoms are down too. We are clearly missing some of the picture.
Personally, I would keep music and nightclubs closed, discourage international travel and for the remainder of activities to resume with careful hygiene, masks and social distancing, and keep a watchful eye on the figures.
My guess is that this is down to a combination of high levels of public take-up of masks, compliance with regulations amongst the overwhelming majority of businesses, exceptionally high levels of working from home relative to many other European countries, and a lot of voluntary self-segregation by vulnerable groups.
Having parents who are old enough to be counted as vulnerable, I know at least anecdotally how people who may be reasonably healthy for their age and not prone to hysteria are nonetheless taking this disease very seriously indeed. My Dad in particular is very cautious; he could be persuaded to go to an outdoor dining venue with us about three weeks ago but other than that I think he's still living pretty much as if it were April, other than the fact that he sees one close friend regularly (who's effectively the other half of his support bubble, I suppose) and his brother and sister from time to time.
In terms of what we can get away with opening, at this stage I think we'd probably agree quite closely. I think that nightclubs, rock concerts, choirs and packed football stadiums are off limits for the duration of this crisis, but just about everything else should be doable with caution. Following the announcement a few weeks back of the arts rescue package, I wonder whether or not the Government has given consideration to telling the theatres to re-open, operate at a loss and top up their balance sheets with grants?
EDIT: and yes, international travel is also a terrible idea under current circumstances - you risk getting caught out big time both by our Government's ever-changing restrictions and by those of the countries that you're visiting. I dare say that the Foreign Office advice against non-essential travel was probably relaxed to try to prop up travel agencies and tour operators, but frankly they'd have been better off lobbing money at them instead.
Anyone know why WFH isn’t anywhere near as popular in Berlin, Madrid and Paris as in London? The numbers are absolutely stark.
That is an interesting question.
I do know that for over a decade, in London, WFH has been a part of every job/company I worked with/for. One that, in general you weren't supposed to do every day, but for minding kids on occasion, waiting for big deliveries, plumbers etc.
So the concept and a lot of infrastructure was there.
Everyone doing it at the same time was a big strain on systems, but they seem to have just managed....
In a couple of weeks less than 0.25% of hospital beds will be taken up by covid positive patients. To continue living the restricted life we are when Covid is almost a medical irrelevance to the NHS is plain daft.
FPT - Since you like to ignore reality I'll tell you again:
Well - if it is similar to the Spanish pattern many of the new cases were in the younger age groups doing the things they do. However, a few weeks on and now olde relatives and even old people's homes are again being infected and both the hospital admissions and deaths are rising too. The Spanish health minister reckong the majority of outbrekas are family related. I think the death rate will be lower this time round as there have been some treatment advances. The idea that we don't have to worry is I think mistaken.
Well, the supposed Leicester hotspot started 6 weeks ago, in overcrowded multigenerational households, yet the local hospitalisations are down six fold. They should be appearing by now. It is genuinely hard to explain.
While obviously hospitalisations and deaths are a trailing indicator, the KCL Covid app suggests population symptoms are down too. We are clearly missing some of the picture.
Personally, I would keep music and nightclubs closed, discourage international travel and for the remainder of activities to resume with careful hygiene, masks and social distancing, and keep a watchful eye on the figures.
My guess is that this is down to a combination of high levels of public take-up of masks, compliance with regulations amongst the overwhelming majority of businesses, exceptionally high levels of working from home relative to many other European countries, and a lot of voluntary self-segregation by vulnerable groups.
Having parents who are old enough to be counted as vulnerable, I know at least anecdotally how people who may be reasonably healthy for their age and not prone to hysteria are nonetheless taking this disease very seriously indeed. My Dad in particular is very cautious; he could be persuaded to go to an outdoor dining venue with us about three weeks ago but other than that I think he's still living pretty much as if it were April, other than the fact that he sees one close friend regularly (who's effectively the other half of his support bubble, I suppose) and his brother and sister from time to time.
In terms of what we can get away with opening, at this stage I think we'd probably agree quite closely. I think that nightclubs, rock concerts, choirs and packed football stadiums are off limits for the duration of this crisis, but just about everything else should be doable with caution. Following the announcement a few weeks back of the arts rescue package, I wonder whether or not the Government has given consideration to telling the theatres to re-open, operate at a loss and top up their balance sheets with grants?
EDIT: and yes, international travel is also a terrible idea under current circumstances - you risk getting caught out big time both by our Government's ever-changing restrictions and by those of the countries that you're visiting. I dare say that the Foreign Office advice against non-essential travel was probably relaxed to try to prop up travel agencies and tour operators, but frankly they'd have been better off lobbing money at them instead.
Anyone know why WFH isn’t anywhere near as popular in Berlin, Madrid and Paris as in London? The numbers are absolutely stark.
I can only speak from second hand knowledge of European friends - they mainly say that employers are far less trusting in Europe than in England where flexible working and wfh is already fairly common place. That's why it's been easier for UK plc to adjust to the new normal compared to Europe and a lot of the advanced "activity" indicators for the UK economy aren't as accurate, especially when used by overseas analysts who don't understand the scale of wfh in the UK. Iirc one of those advanced activity models predicted 4.5% growth in June based on traffic and public transport statistics and POS data from high street cafés and restaurants but it came in at 8.7% because so many people are WFH.
Makes sense. I have a mate who works in London for a Spanish company. The founder is “against” WFH apparently. They all WFH anyway a few days a week but make sure they are all in the office when the founder visits - about five times a year.
Yeah my wife had a friend who works for a German company in Kent and they have called everyone back to the office from September, they have installed plastic screens and isolated all the desks etc... The friend is thinking of quitting because she thinks the company will keep that setup post-virus as it makes it more difficult for colleagues to talk to each other.
In a couple of weeks less than 0.25% of hospital beds will be taken up by covid positive patients. To continue living the restricted life we are when Covid is almost a medical irrelevance to the NHS is plain daft.
FPT - Since you like to ignore reality I'll tell you again:
Well - if it is similar to the Spanish pattern many of the new cases were in the younger age groups doing the things they do. However, a few weeks on and now olde relatives and even old people's homes are again being infected and both the hospital admissions and deaths are rising too. The Spanish health minister reckong the majority of outbrekas are family related. I think the death rate will be lower this time round as there have been some treatment advances. The idea that we don't have to worry is I think mistaken.
Well, the supposed Leicester hotspot started 6 weeks ago, in overcrowded multigenerational households, yet the local hospitalisations are down six fold. They should be appearing by now. It is genuinely hard to explain.
While obviously hospitalisations and deaths are a trailing indicator, the KCL Covid app suggests population symptoms are down too. We are clearly missing some of the picture.
Personally, I would keep music and nightclubs closed, discourage international travel and for the remainder of activities to resume with careful hygiene, masks and social distancing, and keep a watchful eye on the figures.
My guess is that this is down to a combination of high levels of public take-up of masks, compliance with regulations amongst the overwhelming majority of businesses, exceptionally high levels of working from home relative to many other European countries, and a lot of voluntary self-segregation by vulnerable groups.
Having parents who are old enough to be counted as vulnerable, I know at least anecdotally how people who may be reasonably healthy for their age and not prone to hysteria are nonetheless taking this disease very seriously indeed. My Dad in particular is very cautious; he could be persuaded to go to an outdoor dining venue with us about three weeks ago but other than that I think he's still living pretty much as if it were April, other than the fact that he sees one close friend regularly (who's effectively the other half of his support bubble, I suppose) and his brother and sister from time to time.
In terms of what we can get away with opening, at this stage I think we'd probably agree quite closely. I think that nightclubs, rock concerts, choirs and packed football stadiums are off limits for the duration of this crisis, but just about everything else should be doable with caution. Following the announcement a few weeks back of the arts rescue package, I wonder whether or not the Government has given consideration to telling the theatres to re-open, operate at a loss and top up their balance sheets with grants?
EDIT: and yes, international travel is also a terrible idea under current circumstances - you risk getting caught out big time both by our Government's ever-changing restrictions and by those of the countries that you're visiting. I dare say that the Foreign Office advice against non-essential travel was probably relaxed to try to prop up travel agencies and tour operators, but frankly they'd have been better off lobbing money at them instead.
Anyone know why WFH isn’t anywhere near as popular in Berlin, Madrid and Paris as in London? The numbers are absolutely stark.
That is an interesting question.
I do know that for over a decade, in London, WFH has been a part of every job/company I worked with/for. One that, in general you weren't supposed to do every day, but for minding kids on occasion, waiting for big deliveries, plumbers etc.
So the concept and a lot of infrastructure was there.
Everyone doing it at the same time was a big strain on systems, but they seem to have just managed....
I think that's got a lot to do with it, companies already had VPNs in place, everyone has a laptop rather than a workstation, everyone uses JIRA or Asana or some other team based productivity board/tool so who is doing what is easily trackable for management. Every job I've had has been doing these things for the last 8 or so years, but speaking to European friends they always seem so shocked by the trust companies give employees here.
In a couple of weeks less than 0.25% of hospital beds will be taken up by covid positive patients. To continue living the restricted life we are when Covid is almost a medical irrelevance to the NHS is plain daft.
FPT - Since you like to ignore reality I'll tell you again:
Well - if it is similar to the Spanish pattern many of the new cases were in the younger age groups doing the things they do. However, a few weeks on and now olde relatives and even old people's homes are again being infected and both the hospital admissions and deaths are rising too. The Spanish health minister reckong the majority of outbrekas are family related. I think the death rate will be lower this time round as there have been some treatment advances. The idea that we don't have to worry is I think mistaken.
Well, the supposed Leicester hotspot started 6 weeks ago, in overcrowded multigenerational households, yet the local hospitalisations are down six fold. They should be appearing by now. It is genuinely hard to explain.
While obviously hospitalisations and deaths are a trailing indicator, the KCL Covid app suggests population symptoms are down too. We are clearly missing some of the picture.
Personally, I would keep music and nightclubs closed, discourage international travel and for the remainder of activities to resume with careful hygiene, masks and social distancing, and keep a watchful eye on the figures.
My guess is that this is down to a combination of high levels of public take-up of masks, compliance with regulations amongst the overwhelming majority of businesses, exceptionally high levels of working from home relative to many other European countries, and a lot of voluntary self-segregation by vulnerable groups.
Having parents who are old enough to be counted as vulnerable, I know at least anecdotally how people who may be reasonably healthy for their age and not prone to hysteria are nonetheless taking this disease very seriously indeed. My Dad in particular is very cautious; he could be persuaded to go to an outdoor dining venue with us about three weeks ago but other than that I think he's still living pretty much as if it were April, other than the fact that he sees one close friend regularly (who's effectively the other half of his support bubble, I suppose) and his brother and sister from time to time.
In terms of what we can get away with opening, at this stage I think we'd probably agree quite closely. I think that nightclubs, rock concerts, choirs and packed football stadiums are off limits for the duration of this crisis, but just about everything else should be doable with caution. Following the announcement a few weeks back of the arts rescue package, I wonder whether or not the Government has given consideration to telling the theatres to re-open, operate at a loss and top up their balance sheets with grants?
EDIT: and yes, international travel is also a terrible idea under current circumstances - you risk getting caught out big time both by our Government's ever-changing restrictions and by those of the countries that you're visiting. I dare say that the Foreign Office advice against non-essential travel was probably relaxed to try to prop up travel agencies and tour operators, but frankly they'd have been better off lobbing money at them instead.
Anyone know why WFH isn’t anywhere near as popular in Berlin, Madrid and Paris as in London? The numbers are absolutely stark.
I can only speak from second hand knowledge of European friends - they mainly say that employers are far less trusting in Europe than in England where flexible working and wfh is already fairly common place. That's why it's been easier for UK plc to adjust to the new normal compared to Europe and a lot of the advanced "activity" indicators for the UK economy aren't as accurate, especially when used by overseas analysts who don't understand the scale of wfh in the UK. Iirc one of those advanced activity models predicted 4.5% growth in June based on traffic and public transport statistics and POS data from high street cafés and restaurants but it came in at 8.7% because so many people are WFH.
Makes sense. I have a mate who works in London for a Spanish company. The founder is “against” WFH apparently. They all WFH anyway a few days a week but make sure they are all in the office when the founder visits - about five times a year.
Yeah my wife had a friend who works for a German company in Kent and they have called everyone back to the office from September, they have installed plastic screens and isolated all the desks etc... The friend is thinking of quitting because she thinks the company will keep that setup post-virus as it makes it more difficult for colleagues to talk to each other.
One of the great advantages of being in an office is talking to each other! I went to the office today for the first time since lockdown. Was great. Admittedly the boss suggested lunch and we ended up spending two and a half hours in the pub!
In a couple of weeks less than 0.25% of hospital beds will be taken up by covid positive patients. To continue living the restricted life we are when Covid is almost a medical irrelevance to the NHS is plain daft.
FPT - Since you like to ignore reality I'll tell you again:
Well - if it is similar to the Spanish pattern many of the new cases were in the younger age groups doing the things they do. However, a few weeks on and now olde relatives and even old people's homes are again being infected and both the hospital admissions and deaths are rising too. The Spanish health minister reckong the majority of outbrekas are family related. I think the death rate will be lower this time round as there have been some treatment advances. The idea that we don't have to worry is I think mistaken.
Well, the supposed Leicester hotspot started 6 weeks ago, in overcrowded multigenerational households, yet the local hospitalisations are down six fold. They should be appearing by now. It is genuinely hard to explain.
While obviously hospitalisations and deaths are a trailing indicator, the KCL Covid app suggests population symptoms are down too. We are clearly missing some of the picture.
Personally, I would keep music and nightclubs closed, discourage international travel and for the remainder of activities to resume with careful hygiene, masks and social distancing, and keep a watchful eye on the figures.
My guess is that this is down to a combination of high levels of public take-up of masks, compliance with regulations amongst the overwhelming majority of businesses, exceptionally high levels of working from home relative to many other European countries, and a lot of voluntary self-segregation by vulnerable groups.
Having parents who are old enough to be counted as vulnerable, I know at least anecdotally how people who may be reasonably healthy for their age and not prone to hysteria are nonetheless taking this disease very seriously indeed. My Dad in particular is very cautious; he could be persuaded to go to an outdoor dining venue with us about three weeks ago but other than that I think he's still living pretty much as if it were April, other than the fact that he sees one close friend regularly (who's effectively the other half of his support bubble, I suppose) and his brother and sister from time to time.
In terms of what we can get away with opening, at this stage I think we'd probably agree quite closely. I think that nightclubs, rock concerts, choirs and packed football stadiums are off limits for the duration of this crisis, but just about everything else should be doable with caution. Following the announcement a few weeks back of the arts rescue package, I wonder whether or not the Government has given consideration to telling the theatres to re-open, operate at a loss and top up their balance sheets with grants?
EDIT: and yes, international travel is also a terrible idea under current circumstances - you risk getting caught out big time both by our Government's ever-changing restrictions and by those of the countries that you're visiting. I dare say that the Foreign Office advice against non-essential travel was probably relaxed to try to prop up travel agencies and tour operators, but frankly they'd have been better off lobbing money at them instead.
Anyone know why WFH isn’t anywhere near as popular in Berlin, Madrid and Paris as in London? The numbers are absolutely stark.
I can only speak from second hand knowledge of European friends - they mainly say that employers are far less trusting in Europe than in England where flexible working and wfh is already fairly common place. That's why it's been easier for UK plc to adjust to the new normal compared to Europe and a lot of the advanced "activity" indicators for the UK economy aren't as accurate, especially when used by overseas analysts who don't understand the scale of wfh in the UK. Iirc one of those advanced activity models predicted 4.5% growth in June based on traffic and public transport statistics and POS data from high street cafés and restaurants but it came in at 8.7% because so many people are WFH.
3 months ago I got this from some YouGov data -
55% of the workforce was full or partially working from home. In London, this reached 67%.
In a couple of weeks less than 0.25% of hospital beds will be taken up by covid positive patients. To continue living the restricted life we are when Covid is almost a medical irrelevance to the NHS is plain daft.
FPT - Since you like to ignore reality I'll tell you again:
Well - if it is similar to the Spanish pattern many of the new cases were in the younger age groups doing the things they do. However, a few weeks on and now olde relatives and even old people's homes are again being infected and both the hospital admissions and deaths are rising too. The Spanish health minister reckong the majority of outbrekas are family related. I think the death rate will be lower this time round as there have been some treatment advances. The idea that we don't have to worry is I think mistaken.
Well, the supposed Leicester hotspot started 6 weeks ago, in overcrowded multigenerational households, yet the local hospitalisations are down six fold. They should be appearing by now. It is genuinely hard to explain.
While obviously hospitalisations and deaths are a trailing indicator, the KCL Covid app suggests population symptoms are down too. We are clearly missing some of the picture.
Personally, I would keep music and nightclubs closed, discourage international travel and for the remainder of activities to resume with careful hygiene, masks and social distancing, and keep a watchful eye on the figures.
My guess is that this is down to a combination of high levels of public take-up of masks, compliance with regulations amongst the overwhelming majority of businesses, exceptionally high levels of working from home relative to many other European countries, and a lot of voluntary self-segregation by vulnerable groups.
Having parents who are old enough to be counted as vulnerable, I know at least anecdotally how people who may be reasonably healthy for their age and not prone to hysteria are nonetheless taking this disease very seriously indeed. My Dad in particular is very cautious; he could be persuaded to go to an outdoor dining venue with us about three weeks ago but other than that I think he's still living pretty much as if it were April, other than the fact that he sees one close friend regularly (who's effectively the other half of his support bubble, I suppose) and his brother and sister from time to time.
In terms of what we can get away with opening, at this stage I think we'd probably agree quite closely. I think that nightclubs, rock concerts, choirs and packed football stadiums are off limits for the duration of this crisis, but just about everything else should be doable with caution. Following the announcement a few weeks back of the arts rescue package, I wonder whether or not the Government has given consideration to telling the theatres to re-open, operate at a loss and top up their balance sheets with grants?
EDIT: and yes, international travel is also a terrible idea under current circumstances - you risk getting caught out big time both by our Government's ever-changing restrictions and by those of the countries that you're visiting. I dare say that the Foreign Office advice against non-essential travel was probably relaxed to try to prop up travel agencies and tour operators, but frankly they'd have been better off lobbing money at them instead.
Anyone know why WFH isn’t anywhere near as popular in Berlin, Madrid and Paris as in London? The numbers are absolutely stark.
I can only speak from second hand knowledge of European friends - they mainly say that employers are far less trusting in Europe than in England where flexible working and wfh is already fairly common place. That's why it's been easier for UK plc to adjust to the new normal compared to Europe and a lot of the advanced "activity" indicators for the UK economy aren't as accurate, especially when used by overseas analysts who don't understand the scale of wfh in the UK. Iirc one of those advanced activity models predicted 4.5% growth in June based on traffic and public transport statistics and POS data from high street cafés and restaurants but it came in at 8.7% because so many people are WFH.
3 months ago I got this from some YouGov data -
55% of the workforce was full or partially working from home. In London, this reached 67%.
So, the UK has an atypically large service sector by European standards, and a much bigger capacity for remote working. The result: much less transmission in workplaces and on public transport.
The question was asked earlier as to who was right about the potential for disease transmission in offices: the French, who are panicking and have started ordering masks everywhere, or Matt Hancock, who says that step isn't necessary (although FWIW I bet it happens eventually, anyway.) The answer is, perhaps, that both Hancock and the French Government are right. It's simply that the potential for the disease to circulate in British workplaces is, on average, much lower, obvious outliers such as abattoirs and veg pickers living in dorms excepted.
This Government is destroying the Union day by day.
People on here were warning about this back in 2016 and that was with a more Conservative govt than the UKIP-lite we have now.
You are a beautiful example of the phenomena I've just posted about in response to @MaxPB
You have been driven mad by Brexit, and are now delighted that there's a new course of revenge that's potentially about to get served up on the table.
I do find it ironic that people insist that taking back control is ok regardless of the economic costs but it's not OK to give control back to a different group of people.
The only person I can think of on this site who is adamant there should be no second referendum even if the Scots vote to hold one is HYUFD - and he's a Remainer.
Not entirely. The result of a Holyrood election which sees turnout of circa 50% should not override a Referendum in respect of which 85% voted. The lower turnout for Holyrood v Westminster too would tend to suggest that voters in Scotland see it as a lower or secondary tier of authority.
The Holyrood election won't be overriding the Referendum. Overriding the referendum would be taking an SNP majority as a Yes vote. Instead the Holyrood election would merely set the stage for a new vote. Only a Yes Referendum can overturn the No.
As for lower turnout there is a very simple rule in politics: If you don't vote, you can't complain. If the 35% who didn't vote all don't want a second referendum then they should vote to say so. If they don't, that's their choice.
The SNP are seeking to use next year's Holyrood election to obtain a mandate - as they see it - to revist a decision taken by a clear margin in September 2014 on a turnout of circa 85%. The SNP First Minister at the time clearly stated that the decision then taken was to be binding 'for a generation'. A subsequent election on a circa 50% turnout for a second tier authority which lacks the authority to take such a decision cannot reasonably be viewed as a mandate - whether morally or legally. Holyrood can do no more than ask Westminster for such a vote . Westminster has every right to say 'No - Come back post 2035!'
'McKinsey (the consultants invariably brought in by those CEOs and others too unimaginative to think for themselves, too scared to make their own decisions or just looking for someone else to blame).'
This was exactly my experience with them. They would come to you room, spend a lot of time finding out what you did and how you did it. They would type it up and report this to the CEO, leaving you wondering why the CEO didn't just ask you himself. The result of all this earnest research was the recommendation that the firm (which was profitable and successful) should carry on pretty much as before.
Naturally they were paid a huge sum for this timeless advice.
There is a reason for that which is (a) objectivity and (b) independence.
On the first, most staff will tell the CEO what they want to hear or what they think will make themselves look good in front of the CEO or advance their own agendas to the CEO. CEO doesn't know which to believe. He or she also doesn't know who's stayed quiet about what's really going on: everything gets filtered by chinese whispers & agendas through the chain of command.
On the second, the name of a McKinsey or Big4 firm carries weight as an independent assessor/auditor thus lending credibility to the findings.
That's why so many hire management consultants: to tell them the state of play in their own company, benchmark it against others in the industry (they'll have done the same elsewhere) and use their brand-name as credibility for the findings so they can take action.
That's no excuse for offering simple or poor advice, or subject to confirmation bias, and that's what differentiates good consultants from bad ones.
I did IT Consultancy for a while. A couple interesting things -
- Coming in from outside, we would often have to build documentation for a rats nest of systems. Often I would be told that my diagram (entirely created so I could understand it) was immensely valuable to the client. They often had no idea what was connecting to what.....
- Large companies/organisations are often a jumble of fiefdoms. They will tell you what protects their little patch. Quite often we had to get direct access to systems and work round the incumbent teams to find out what the hell was going on.
- Defiance. You might think that the CEO orders something to happen and... well stuff happens. In fact, when it effects their fiefdoms (see above), the incumbents will often defend their patch to the point of insubordination. And beyond.
All of the above is part of the reason that change is very very hard in large organisations. To the point where, it is necessary to burn the whole thing down and start again, every so often.
The answer still should never be mcKinseys. For example I worked at ici as a chemist. They came in asked us all what we did and how long it took. Mostly people worked a few hours over their time every week because some things just can't fit into a 7.5 hour day, eg you have something that requires a 10 hour run to complete.
McKinseys then too how long we spent doing each task and used to formula of putative hours worked/ divided by actual hours worked and used this to calculate how long things took so for example a 10 hour reaction apparently would now only take 8 hours.
They then used these revised times to say you have overmanning and a load of people got made redundant. McKinseys wandered off into the sunset with a pocket full of cash....senior managers were happy they were now a lean efficient company.....that division of ICI ended up going down the pan about a year later as nothing was ever getting done as we now had to few staff to do everything and people were so pissed off at the extra work they were expected to do to pick up the slack they were saying "sod it end of my contracted hours, want me to stay finish this experiment then pay me overtime"
With McKinseys you certainly get all the stupid you can afford
One thing that's often forgotten in consultancy: you have to take the staff and people with you to effect constructive change, not just impress the CEO.
Most consultants fly in for 4-6 weeks and then piss off. To implement sustainable change you need to embed yourself for at least 6 months and build relationships with people, and get them on side.
Otherwise you'll face passive and even active resistance as soon as you're gone, and nothing will happen (and if it does it won't be positive).
I know this may be a betrayal but right now he would be a huge improvement on Boris
Why do you say that? Not saying you are wrong
So far I have seen not a single policy from starmer apart from a statement of "well I wouldn't have done it that way" without telling us what he would have done and why it would be better.
Now I am not claiming he wouldn't be better. Just saying so far there is actually zero evidence to base it on. Policy and idea wise they guy is a vacuum.
'McKinsey (the consultants invariably brought in by those CEOs and others too unimaginative to think for themselves, too scared to make their own decisions or just looking for someone else to blame).'
This was exactly my experience with them. They would come to you room, spend a lot of time finding out what you did and how you did it. They would type it up and report this to the CEO, leaving you wondering why the CEO didn't just ask you himself. The result of all this earnest research was the recommendation that the firm (which was profitable and successful) should carry on pretty much as before.
Naturally they were paid a huge sum for this timeless advice.
There is a reason for that which is (a) objectivity and (b) independence.
On the first, most staff will tell the CEO what they want to hear or what they think will make themselves look good in front of the CEO or advance their own agendas to the CEO. CEO doesn't know which to believe. He or she also doesn't know who's stayed quiet about what's really going on: everything gets filtered by chinese whispers & agendas through the chain of command.
On the second, the name of a McKinsey or Big4 firm carries weight as an independent assessor/auditor thus lending credibility to the findings.
That's why so many hire management consultants: to tell them the state of play in their own company, benchmark it against others in the industry (they'll have done the same elsewhere) and use their brand-name as credibility for the findings so they can take action.
That's no excuse for offering simple or poor advice, or subject to confirmation bias, and that's what differentiates good consultants from bad ones.
I did IT Consultancy for a while. A couple interesting things -
- Coming in from outside, we would often have to build documentation for a rats nest of systems. Often I would be told that my diagram (entirely created so I could understand it) was immensely valuable to the client. They often had no idea what was connecting to what.....
- Large companies/organisations are often a jumble of fiefdoms. They will tell you what protects their little patch. Quite often we had to get direct access to systems and work round the incumbent teams to find out what the hell was going on.
- Defiance. You might think that the CEO orders something to happen and... well stuff happens. In fact, when it effects their fiefdoms (see above), the incumbents will often defend their patch to the point of insubordination. And beyond.
All of the above is part of the reason that change is very very hard in large organisations. To the point where, it is necessary to burn the whole thing down and start again, every so often.
The answer still should never be mcKinseys. For example I worked at ici as a chemist. They came in asked us all what we did and how long it took. Mostly people worked a few hours over their time every week because some things just can't fit into a 7.5 hour day, eg you have something that requires a 10 hour run to complete.
McKinseys then too how long we spent doing each task and used to formula of putative hours worked/ divided by actual hours worked and used this to calculate how long things took so for example a 10 hour reaction apparently would now only take 8 hours.
They then used these revised times to say you have overmanning and a load of people got made redundant. McKinseys wandered off into the sunset with a pocket full of cash....senior managers were happy they were now a lean efficient company.....that division of ICI ended up going down the pan about a year later as nothing was ever getting done as we now had to few staff to do everything and people were so pissed off at the extra work they were expected to do to pick up the slack they were saying "sod it end of my contracted hours, want me to stay finish this experiment then pay me overtime"
With McKinseys you certainly get all the stupid you can afford
Management consultants eh. I`ve asked a few, over the years, what they do exactly. The answer is the same: word salad until one`s eyes glaze over. I`m left with the impression that they exist to bail senior managers out from having to make difficult decisions for an absurdly large fee. Hired bad boys if you like.
They are there to consult with managers on management options.
It's something that should really only be done/led by experienced people but too often now the Big4 will hire bright young graduates to do it, who are able to turn reports out quickly but know nothing, and then the partner/exec director who does know something will only fly in at the start and end to speak to the CEO, and that's it.
Management consultants eh. I`ve asked a few, over the years, what they do exactly. The answer is the same: word salad until one`s eyes glaze over. I`m left with the impression that they exist to bail senior managers out from having to make difficult decisions for an absurdly large fee. Hired bad boys if you like.
I liked Gerald Weinberg's IT consulting premise - whatever they tell you the problem is, it is ALWAYS a people problem. The technology is usually capable enough.
His second premise was that they already know the answer, but nobody inside the organisation has the nerve to voice it. Far better to say "I have engaged a consultant to deal with this problem". If the answer is unpopular the consultant can be dispensed with at no risk.
That's true, and it's why consultants charge such high rates and why it's not much fun working for a consultancy.
In a couple of weeks less than 0.25% of hospital beds will be taken up by covid positive patients. To continue living the restricted life we are when Covid is almost a medical irrelevance to the NHS is plain daft.
FPT - Since you like to ignore reality I'll tell you again:
Well - if it is similar to the Spanish pattern many of the new cases were in the younger age groups doing the things they do. However, a few weeks on and now olde relatives and even old people's homes are again being infected and both the hospital admissions and deaths are rising too. The Spanish health minister reckong the majority of outbrekas are family related. I think the death rate will be lower this time round as there have been some treatment advances. The idea that we don't have to worry is I think mistaken.
Well, the supposed Leicester hotspot started 6 weeks ago, in overcrowded multigenerational households, yet the local hospitalisations are down six fold. They should be appearing by now. It is genuinely hard to explain.
While obviously hospitalisations and deaths are a trailing indicator, the KCL Covid app suggests population symptoms are down too. We are clearly missing some of the picture.
Personally, I would keep music and nightclubs closed, discourage international travel and for the remainder of activities to resume with careful hygiene, masks and social distancing, and keep a watchful eye on the figures.
My guess is that this is down to a combination of high levels of public take-up of masks, compliance with regulations amongst the overwhelming majority of businesses, exceptionally high levels of working from home relative to many other European countries, and a lot of voluntary self-segregation by vulnerable groups.
Having parents who are old enough to be counted as vulnerable, I know at least anecdotally how people who may be reasonably healthy for their age and not prone to hysteria are nonetheless taking this disease very seriously indeed. My Dad in particular is very cautious; he could be persuaded to go to an outdoor dining venue with us about three weeks ago but other than that I think he's still living pretty much as if it were April, other than the fact that he sees one close friend regularly (who's effectively the other half of his support bubble, I suppose) and his brother and sister from time to time.
In terms of what we can get away with opening, at this stage I think we'd probably agree quite closely. I think that nightclubs, rock concerts, choirs and packed football stadiums are off limits for the duration of this crisis, but just about everything else should be doable with caution. Following the announcement a few weeks back of the arts rescue package, I wonder whether or not the Government has given consideration to telling the theatres to re-open, operate at a loss and top up their balance sheets with grants?
EDIT: and yes, international travel is also a terrible idea under current circumstances - you risk getting caught out big time both by our Government's ever-changing restrictions and by those of the countries that you're visiting. I dare say that the Foreign Office advice against non-essential travel was probably relaxed to try to prop up travel agencies and tour operators, but frankly they'd have been better off lobbing money at them instead.
Anyone know why WFH isn’t anywhere near as popular in Berlin, Madrid and Paris as in London? The numbers are absolutely stark.
I can only speak from second hand knowledge of European friends - they mainly say that employers are far less trusting in Europe than in England where flexible working and wfh is already fairly common place. That's why it's been easier for UK plc to adjust to the new normal compared to Europe and a lot of the advanced "activity" indicators for the UK economy aren't as accurate, especially when used by overseas analysts who don't understand the scale of wfh in the UK. Iirc one of those advanced activity models predicted 4.5% growth in June based on traffic and public transport statistics and POS data from high street cafés and restaurants but it came in at 8.7% because so many people are WFH.
Makes sense. I have a mate who works in London for a Spanish company. The founder is “against” WFH apparently. They all WFH anyway a few days a week but make sure they are all in the office when the founder visits - about five times a year.
Yeah my wife had a friend who works for a German company in Kent and they have called everyone back to the office from September, they have installed plastic screens and isolated all the desks etc... The friend is thinking of quitting because she thinks the company will keep that setup post-virus as it makes it more difficult for colleagues to talk to each other.
The UK tendency to WFH is good for keeping infection levels low, but terrible for our city centres, esp London.
It is one reason our GDP drop was so much more severe.
All these Oxbridge degrees and PBers still can’t bloody spell the given name of the Loto.
K
E
I
R
FFS
Kier Group was the first engineering company to introduce contiguous cylindrical reinforced concrete grain silos (Barking, 1929). I had hoped my reference was sufficiently obvious not to require footnoting.
Elephant traps, elephant traps...
Keir Hardie first became an MP decades earlier in 1892.
If Labour is able to establish a lead in coming months, it might affect the dynamics in Scotland a bit. The serious prospect of ousting Johnson and the Tories - albeit 3 years later - might be sufficient to pull back defectors to the SNP next May.
I share this with you Malc
We do not agree on much but Justin does not have clue
He is Labour's HYFUD
I am not a Labour member - and voted Green in 2019.
I can't see Labour winning more than a dozen seats in Scotland in 2024 even in a scenario where they are on 40% of the GB vote.
Danger for the SNP is more that a lot of their voters who voted for them in 2015 and 2019 get disillusioned by Sturgeon's failure to deliver an independence referendum between now and 2024 and stay at home in large numbers like they did in 2017.
Labour managed 7 seats in 2017 under Corbyn. Under Starmer the potential is probably nearer twenty if Labour does well across GB. If it looks likely that Labour will oust the Tories, I would expect Scotland to want to join the party as it were!
If schools in England re-open in two weeks time and are kept open until large scale vaccination is available then the Tories might improve from here (and they might even deserve to).
If, on the other hand, we have widespread disruption with many or all pupils sent home in large numbers of schools then I think it will be down hill from here.
Ironically the pupils who can least afford the time off, i.e. those approaching exams, are the ones we could send home without major economic disruption as their parents would not need to take time off work to look after them.
New cases in Spain were over 7000 on the 14th, this is a disaster. I wouldn't be surprised if three was a new national lockdown to combat this as soon as tourists have gone home in 10 or so days.
I know this may be a betrayal but right now he would be a huge improvement on Boris
Why do you say that? Not saying you are wrong
So far I have seen not a single policy from starmer apart from a statement of "well I wouldn't have done it that way" without telling us what he would have done and why it would be better.
Now I am not claiming he wouldn't be better. Just saying so far there is actually zero evidence to base it on. Policy and idea wise they guy is a vacuum.
Boris has disappeared, failed to sack those damaging his government, and does not do detail
Great campaigner but poor at the hard work of government
I know this may be a betrayal but right now he would be a huge improvement on Boris
Seriously, what would he have done differently? His criticisms are at the margins, really.
He is not hands on, he does not sack people he should, and he has gone into hiding at just the moment he should be fighting for HMG
Underestimate Johnson at your peril. Johnson reaches parts other Tories cannot reach.. He is a working class hero, he is catnip to the hoi poloi. He has a dog whistle and he knows when to blow that whistle.
Johnson's cheery bon hommie and feel good optimism cuts through to the have nots. Why? He is very good at scapegoating opponents. Remainers, socialists, the EU, unpatriotic traitors, foreigners, pessimists, scroungers, asylum seekers, those who come across as being different to Johnson.
The country may find itself on its knees before too long, but from the depths of your destiude, unemployed despair, a tousle haired clown in a big comedic suit will tell you everything will be great again if we can rid ourselves of pessimistic traitors.
In a couple of weeks less than 0.25% of hospital beds will be taken up by covid positive patients. To continue living the restricted life we are when Covid is almost a medical irrelevance to the NHS is plain daft.
FPT - Since you like to ignore reality I'll tell you again:
Well - if it is similar to the Spanish pattern many of the new cases were in the younger age groups doing the things they do. However, a few weeks on and now olde relatives and even old people's homes are again being infected and both the hospital admissions and deaths are rising too. The Spanish health minister reckong the majority of outbrekas are family related. I think the death rate will be lower this time round as there have been some treatment advances. The idea that we don't have to worry is I think mistaken.
Well, the supposed Leicester hotspot started 6 weeks ago, in overcrowded multigenerational households, yet the local hospitalisations are down six fold. They should be appearing by now. It is genuinely hard to explain.
While obviously hospitalisations and deaths are a trailing indicator, the KCL Covid app suggests population symptoms are down too. We are clearly missing some of the picture.
Personally, I would keep music and nightclubs closed, discourage international travel and for the remainder of activities to resume with careful hygiene, masks and social distancing, and keep a watchful eye on the figures.
My guess is that this is down to a combination of high levels of public take-up of masks, compliance with regulations amongst the overwhelming majority of businesses, exceptionally high levels of working from home relative to many other European countries, and a lot of voluntary self-segregation by vulnerable groups.
Having parents who are old enough to be counted as vulnerable, I know at least anecdotally how people who may be reasonably healthy for their age and not prone to hysteria are nonetheless taking this disease very seriously indeed. My Dad in particular is very cautious; he could be persuaded to go to an outdoor dining venue with us about three weeks ago but other than that I think he's still living pretty much as if it were April, other than the fact that he sees one close friend regularly (who's effectively the other half of his support bubble, I suppose) and his brother and sister from time to time.
In terms of what we can get away with opening, at this stage I think we'd probably agree quite closely. I think that nightclubs, rock concerts, choirs and packed football stadiums are off limits for the duration of this crisis, but just about everything else should be doable with caution. Following the announcement a few weeks back of the arts rescue package, I wonder whether or not the Government has given consideration to telling the theatres to re-open, operate at a loss and top up their balance sheets with grants?
EDIT: and yes, international travel is also a terrible idea under current circumstances - you risk getting caught out big time both by our Government's ever-changing restrictions and by those of the countries that you're visiting. I dare say that the Foreign Office advice against non-essential travel was probably relaxed to try to prop up travel agencies and tour operators, but frankly they'd have been better off lobbing money at them instead.
Anyone know why WFH isn’t anywhere near as popular in Berlin, Madrid and Paris as in London? The numbers are absolutely stark.
I can only speak from second hand knowledge of European friends - they mainly say that employers are far less trusting in Europe than in England where flexible working and wfh is already fairly common place. That's why it's been easier for UK plc to adjust to the new normal compared to Europe and a lot of the advanced "activity" indicators for the UK economy aren't as accurate, especially when used by overseas analysts who don't understand the scale of wfh in the UK. Iirc one of those advanced activity models predicted 4.5% growth in June based on traffic and public transport statistics and POS data from high street cafés and restaurants but it came in at 8.7% because so many people are WFH.
Makes sense. I have a mate who works in London for a Spanish company. The founder is “against” WFH apparently. They all WFH anyway a few days a week but make sure they are all in the office when the founder visits - about five times a year.
Yeah my wife had a friend who works for a German company in Kent and they have called everyone back to the office from September, they have installed plastic screens and isolated all the desks etc... The friend is thinking of quitting because she thinks the company will keep that setup post-virus as it makes it more difficult for colleagues to talk to each other.
The UK tendency to WFH is good for keeping infection levels low, but terrible for our city centres, esp London.
It is one reason our GDP drop was so much more severe.
But also good for the recovery because people can be easily mobilised to start working again without needing modifications to work places. Tbh, there is going to be a new reality for hospitality business and lunch places that serve office workers, I don't know what it is but the person who figures it out will make millions.
I know this may be a betrayal but right now he would be a huge improvement on Boris
Why do you say that? Not saying you are wrong
So far I have seen not a single policy from starmer apart from a statement of "well I wouldn't have done it that way" without telling us what he would have done and why it would be better.
Now I am not claiming he wouldn't be better. Just saying so far there is actually zero evidence to base it on. Policy and idea wise they guy is a vacuum.
Boris has disappeared, failed to sack those damaging his government, and does not do detail
Great campaigner but poor at the hard work of government
The nightly sideways glance at the American polling data:
Three polls tonight and Rasmussen has Biden ahead 49-43 so a slight narrowing from the last poll - as the crosstabs are behind a paywall I can't comment on the sampling.
The sample is 41% Democrat, 33% Independent and 26% Republican and the Independents break 42-37 for Trump but the weight of the Democratic vote gives Biden a comfortable lead on a 4% swing from 2016.
The Hill/Harris X poll has Biden up 45-39 but includes 4% non voters so excluding those it's a 47-41 lead for Biden.
Sampling is 37% Democrat, 32% Republican and 29% Independent and 2% Other so a very different sample and much nearer the 2016 return.
Can we explain the disparity (a 6-point lead vs a 10-point lead) purely by sampling? After excluding the "would not vote", the Independents in the Harris survey break 40-38 for Trump so pretty similar to the YouGov numbers.
Labour still have a bit of work to do in the Midlands.
Labour has an enormous amount of work to do almost everywhere South of the Humber, save for inner London. The fact that the Tories aren't doing worse isn't merely, as was suggested earlier, a product of the extraordinary circumstances created by Brexit and the Plague. Labour also has a dreadful image problem.
I'm not sure about that.
Their brand of politics (wokeness, veganism, Greta-loving, "ist" obsessed, and open immigration mindset) is seeping into the home counties through the 20 and 30 somethings, and those 40 and early 50 somethings who want to impress them.
New cases in Spain were over 7000 on the 14th, this is a disaster. I wouldn't be surprised if three was a new national lockdown to combat this as soon as tourists have gone home in 10 or so days.
Precisely the point I made in the previous thread.
It's a thing.
I think they fear that Boris will get a deal and the world won't collapse so now they have to move onto the next thing that makes Brexit the worst thing to ever happen, including both world wars.
In a couple of weeks less than 0.25% of hospital beds will be taken up by covid positive patients. To continue living the restricted life we are when Covid is almost a medical irrelevance to the NHS is plain daft.
FPT - Since you like to ignore reality I'll tell you again:
Well - if it is similar to the Spanish pattern many of the new cases were in the younger age groups doing the things they do. However, a few weeks on and now olde relatives and even old people's homes are again being infected and both the hospital admissions and deaths are rising too. The Spanish health minister reckong the majority of outbrekas are family related. I think the death rate will be lower this time round as there have been some treatment advances. The idea that we don't have to worry is I think mistaken.
Well, the supposed Leicester hotspot started 6 weeks ago, in overcrowded multigenerational households, yet the local hospitalisations are down six fold. They should be appearing by now. It is genuinely hard to explain.
While obviously hospitalisations and deaths are a trailing indicator, the KCL Covid app suggests population symptoms are down too. We are clearly missing some of the picture.
Personally, I would keep music and nightclubs closed, discourage international travel and for the remainder of activities to resume with careful hygiene, masks and social distancing, and keep a watchful eye on the figures.
My guess is that this is down to a combination of high levels of public take-up of masks, compliance with regulations amongst the overwhelming majority of businesses, exceptionally high levels of working from home relative to many other European countries, and a lot of voluntary self-segregation by vulnerable groups.
Having parents who are old enough to be counted as vulnerable, I know at least anecdotally how people who may be reasonably healthy for their age and not prone to hysteria are nonetheless taking this disease very seriously indeed. My Dad in particular is very cautious; he could be persuaded to go to an outdoor dining venue with us about three weeks ago but other than that I think he's still living pretty much as if it were April, other than the fact that he sees one close friend regularly (who's effectively the other half of his support bubble, I suppose) and his brother and sister from time to time.
In terms of what we can get away with opening, at this stage I think we'd probably agree quite closely. I think that nightclubs, rock concerts, choirs and packed football stadiums are off limits for the duration of this crisis, but just about everything else should be doable with caution. Following the announcement a few weeks back of the arts rescue package, I wonder whether or not the Government has given consideration to telling the theatres to re-open, operate at a loss and top up their balance sheets with grants?
EDIT: and yes, international travel is also a terrible idea under current circumstances - you risk getting caught out big time both by our Government's ever-changing restrictions and by those of the countries that you're visiting. I dare say that the Foreign Office advice against non-essential travel was probably relaxed to try to prop up travel agencies and tour operators, but frankly they'd have been better off lobbing money at them instead.
Anyone know why WFH isn’t anywhere near as popular in Berlin, Madrid and Paris as in London? The numbers are absolutely stark.
I can only speak from second hand knowledge of European friends - they mainly say that employers are far less trusting in Europe than in England where flexible working and wfh is already fairly common place. That's why it's been easier for UK plc to adjust to the new normal compared to Europe and a lot of the advanced "activity" indicators for the UK economy aren't as accurate, especially when used by overseas analysts who don't understand the scale of wfh in the UK. Iirc one of those advanced activity models predicted 4.5% growth in June based on traffic and public transport statistics and POS data from high street cafés and restaurants but it came in at 8.7% because so many people are WFH.
Makes sense. I have a mate who works in London for a Spanish company. The founder is “against” WFH apparently. They all WFH anyway a few days a week but make sure they are all in the office when the founder visits - about five times a year.
Yeah my wife had a friend who works for a German company in Kent and they have called everyone back to the office from September, they have installed plastic screens and isolated all the desks etc... The friend is thinking of quitting because she thinks the company will keep that setup post-virus as it makes it more difficult for colleagues to talk to each other.
The UK tendency to WFH is good for keeping infection levels low, but terrible for our city centres, esp London.
It is one reason our GDP drop was so much more severe.
But also good for the recovery because people can be easily mobilised to start working again without needing modifications to work places. Tbh, there is going to be a new reality for hospitality business and lunch places that serve office workers, I don't know what it is but the person who figures it out will make millions.
The simplest and most obvious scenario is that all those business support services in the city centres simply contract until the remaining providers match the remaining customers, and new businesses open to replace them in the areas where more people are now working. Some economic activity is thus displaced from traditional businesses districts to suburban and rural areas. Rebalancing in action.
In a couple of weeks less than 0.25% of hospital beds will be taken up by covid positive patients. To continue living the restricted life we are when Covid is almost a medical irrelevance to the NHS is plain daft.
FPT - Since you like to ignore reality I'll tell you again:
Well - if it is similar to the Spanish pattern many of the new cases were in the younger age groups doing the things they do. However, a few weeks on and now olde relatives and even old people's homes are again being infected and both the hospital admissions and deaths are rising too. The Spanish health minister reckong the majority of outbrekas are family related. I think the death rate will be lower this time round as there have been some treatment advances. The idea that we don't have to worry is I think mistaken.
Well, the supposed Leicester hotspot started 6 weeks ago, in overcrowded multigenerational households, yet the local hospitalisations are down six fold. They should be appearing by now. It is genuinely hard to explain.
While obviously hospitalisations and deaths are a trailing indicator, the KCL Covid app suggests population symptoms are down too. We are clearly missing some of the picture.
Personally, I would keep music and nightclubs closed, discourage international travel and for the remainder of activities to resume with careful hygiene, masks and social distancing, and keep a watchful eye on the figures.
My guess is that this is down to a combination of high levels of public take-up of masks, compliance with regulations amongst the overwhelming majority of businesses, exceptionally high levels of working from home relative to many other European countries, and a lot of voluntary self-segregation by vulnerable groups.
Having parents who are old enough to be counted as vulnerable, I know at least anecdotally how people who may be reasonably healthy for their age and not prone to hysteria are nonetheless taking this disease very seriously indeed. My Dad in particular is very cautious; he could be persuaded to go to an outdoor dining venue with us about three weeks ago but other than that I think he's still living pretty much as if it were April, other than the fact that he sees one close friend regularly (who's effectively the other half of his support bubble, I suppose) and his brother and sister from time to time.
In terms of what we can get away with opening, at this stage I think we'd probably agree quite closely. I think that nightclubs, rock concerts, choirs and packed football stadiums are off limits for the duration of this crisis, but just about everything else should be doable with caution. Following the announcement a few weeks back of the arts rescue package, I wonder whether or not the Government has given consideration to telling the theatres to re-open, operate at a loss and top up their balance sheets with grants?
EDIT: and yes, international travel is also a terrible idea under current circumstances - you risk getting caught out big time both by our Government's ever-changing restrictions and by those of the countries that you're visiting. I dare say that the Foreign Office advice against non-essential travel was probably relaxed to try to prop up travel agencies and tour operators, but frankly they'd have been better off lobbing money at them instead.
Anyone know why WFH isn’t anywhere near as popular in Berlin, Madrid and Paris as in London? The numbers are absolutely stark.
I can only speak from second hand knowledge of European friends - they mainly say that employers are far less trusting in Europe than in England where flexible working and wfh is already fairly common place. That's why it's been easier for UK plc to adjust to the new normal compared to Europe and a lot of the advanced "activity" indicators for the UK economy aren't as accurate, especially when used by overseas analysts who don't understand the scale of wfh in the UK. Iirc one of those advanced activity models predicted 4.5% growth in June based on traffic and public transport statistics and POS data from high street cafés and restaurants but it came in at 8.7% because so many people are WFH.
Makes sense. I have a mate who works in London for a Spanish company. The founder is “against” WFH apparently. They all WFH anyway a few days a week but make sure they are all in the office when the founder visits - about five times a year.
Yeah my wife had a friend who works for a German company in Kent and they have called everyone back to the office from September, they have installed plastic screens and isolated all the desks etc... The friend is thinking of quitting because she thinks the company will keep that setup post-virus as it makes it more difficult for colleagues to talk to each other.
One of the great advantages of being in an office is talking to each other! I went to the office today for the first time since lockdown. Was great. Admittedly the boss suggested lunch and we ended up spending two and a half hours in the pub!
Labour still have a bit of work to do in the Midlands.
Labour has an enormous amount of work to do almost everywhere South of the Humber, save for inner London. The fact that the Tories aren't doing worse isn't merely, as was suggested earlier, a product of the extraordinary circumstances created by Brexit and the Plague. Labour also has a dreadful image problem.
I'm not sure about that.
Their brand of politics (wokeness, veganism, Greta-loving, "ist" obsessed, and open immigration mindset) is seeping into the home counties through the 20 and 30 somethings, and those 40 and early 50 somethings who want to impress them.
But my personal experience tells me that there is an even younger cohort - 16-20 who are more rightwing and suspicious of wokeism than those in their 20s and 30s.
In a couple of weeks less than 0.25% of hospital beds will be taken up by covid positive patients. To continue living the restricted life we are when Covid is almost a medical irrelevance to the NHS is plain daft.
FPT - Since you like to ignore reality I'll tell you again:
Well - if it is similar to the Spanish pattern many of the new cases were in the younger age groups doing the things they do. However, a few weeks on and now olde relatives and even old people's homes are again being infected and both the hospital admissions and deaths are rising too. The Spanish health minister reckong the majority of outbrekas are family related. I think the death rate will be lower this time round as there have been some treatment advances. The idea that we don't have to worry is I think mistaken.
Well, the supposed Leicester hotspot started 6 weeks ago, in overcrowded multigenerational households, yet the local hospitalisations are down six fold. They should be appearing by now. It is genuinely hard to explain.
While obviously hospitalisations and deaths are a trailing indicator, the KCL Covid app suggests population symptoms are down too. We are clearly missing some of the picture.
Personally, I would keep music and nightclubs closed, discourage international travel and for the remainder of activities to resume with careful hygiene, masks and social distancing, and keep a watchful eye on the figures.
My guess is that this is down to a combination of high levels of public take-up of masks, compliance with regulations amongst the overwhelming majority of businesses, exceptionally high levels of working from home relative to many other European countries, and a lot of voluntary self-segregation by vulnerable groups.
Having parents who are old enough to be counted as vulnerable, I know at least anecdotally how people who may be reasonably healthy for their age and not prone to hysteria are nonetheless taking this disease very seriously indeed. My Dad in particular is very cautious; he could be persuaded to go to an outdoor dining venue with us about three weeks ago but other than that I think he's still living pretty much as if it were April, other than the fact that he sees one close friend regularly (who's effectively the other half of his support bubble, I suppose) and his brother and sister from time to time.
In terms of what we can get away with opening, at this stage I think we'd probably agree quite closely. I think that nightclubs, rock concerts, choirs and packed football stadiums are off limits for the duration of this crisis, but just about everything else should be doable with caution. Following the announcement a few weeks back of the arts rescue package, I wonder whether or not the Government has given consideration to telling the theatres to re-open, operate at a loss and top up their balance sheets with grants?
EDIT: and yes, international travel is also a terrible idea under current circumstances - you risk getting caught out big time both by our Government's ever-changing restrictions and by those of the countries that you're visiting. I dare say that the Foreign Office advice against non-essential travel was probably relaxed to try to prop up travel agencies and tour operators, but frankly they'd have been better off lobbing money at them instead.
Anyone know why WFH isn’t anywhere near as popular in Berlin, Madrid and Paris as in London? The numbers are absolutely stark.
I can only speak from second hand knowledge of European friends - they mainly say that employers are far less trusting in Europe than in England where flexible working and wfh is already fairly common place. That's why it's been easier for UK plc to adjust to the new normal compared to Europe and a lot of the advanced "activity" indicators for the UK economy aren't as accurate, especially when used by overseas analysts who don't understand the scale of wfh in the UK. Iirc one of those advanced activity models predicted 4.5% growth in June based on traffic and public transport statistics and POS data from high street cafés and restaurants but it came in at 8.7% because so many people are WFH.
Makes sense. I have a mate who works in London for a Spanish company. The founder is “against” WFH apparently. They all WFH anyway a few days a week but make sure they are all in the office when the founder visits - about five times a year.
Yeah my wife had a friend who works for a German company in Kent and they have called everyone back to the office from September, they have installed plastic screens and isolated all the desks etc... The friend is thinking of quitting because she thinks the company will keep that setup post-virus as it makes it more difficult for colleagues to talk to each other.
One of the great advantages of being in an office is talking to each other! I went to the office today for the first time since lockdown. Was great. Admittedly the boss suggested lunch and we ended up spending two and a half hours in the pub!
I miss the office.
Ricky Gervais was once lead singer of the band Seona Dancing.
New cases in Spain were over 7000 on the 14th, this is a disaster. I wouldn't be surprised if three was a new national lockdown to combat this as soon as tourists have gone home in 10 or so days.
firstly it’s difficult to have a drink or eat a meal wearing a mask so as long as you are either in your family bubble or 1.5 meters away you can take it off. If you stand up you must put it on especially when moving around inside. The problem is that people ignore the law, mainly in respect to the social distancing Requirements, this applies to the Brits and the Spanish, we have just had a new raft of controls introduced which hopefully will bring things back under control.
I know this may be a betrayal but right now he would be a huge improvement on Boris
Seriously, what would he have done differently? His criticisms are at the margins, really.
He is not hands on, he does not sack people he should, and he has gone into hiding at just the moment he should be fighting for HMG
Underestimate Johnson at your peril. Johnson reaches parts other Tories cannot reach.. He is a working class hero, he is catnip to the hoi poloi. He has a dog whistle and he knows when to blow that whistle.
Johnson's cheery bon hommie and feel good optimism cuts through to the have nots. Why? He is very good at scapegoating opponents. Remainers, socialists, the EU, unpatriotic traitors, foreigners, pessimists, scroungers, asylum seekers, those who come across as being different to Johnson.
The country may find itself on its knees before too long, but from the depths of your destiude, unemployed despair, a tousle haired clown in a big comedic suit will tell you everything will be great again if we can rid ourselves of pessimistic traitors.
If that was an asset in 2019, it won't be in 2024.
Rishi is starting to get personal brand recognition through his initiatives now, and he's becoming an effective Chancellor already. My local has a "thanks Rishi!" sign up outside it, which must royally grate with Boris.
2021 is probably too early for him, but desperate times call for desperate measures.
I think him and Hunt should team up (Hunt can't be PM due to the rat eyes, and zero charisma).
Precisely the point I made in the previous thread.
It's a thing.
I think they fear that Boris will get a deal and the world won't collapse so now they have to move onto the next thing that makes Brexit the worst thing to ever happen, including both world wars.
This Government is destroying the Union day by day.
People on here were warning about this back in 2016 and that was with a more Conservative govt than the UKIP-lite we have now.
You are a beautiful example of the phenomena I've just posted about in response to @MaxPB
You have been driven mad by Brexit, and are now delighted that there's a new course of revenge that's potentially about to get served up on the table.
I do find it ironic that people insist that taking back control is ok regardless of the economic costs but it's not OK to give control back to a different group of people.
The only person I can think of on this site who is adamant there should be no second referendum even if the Scots vote to hold one is HYUFD - and he's a Remainer.
Not entirely. The result of a Holyrood election which sees turnout of circa 50% should not override a Referendum in respect of which 85% voted. The lower turnout for Holyrood v Westminster too would tend to suggest that voters in Scotland see it as a lower or secondary tier of authority.
The Holyrood election won't be overriding the Referendum. Overriding the referendum would be taking an SNP majority as a Yes vote. Instead the Holyrood election would merely set the stage for a new vote. Only a Yes Referendum can overturn the No.
As for lower turnout there is a very simple rule in politics: If you don't vote, you can't complain. If the 35% who didn't vote all don't want a second referendum then they should vote to say so. If they don't, that's their choice.
The SNP are seeking to use next year's Holyrood election to obtain a mandate - as they see it - to revist a decision taken by a clear margin in September 2014 on a turnout of circa 85%. The SNP First Minister at the time clearly stated that the decision then taken was to be binding 'for a generation'. A subsequent election on a circa 50% turnout for a second tier authority which lacks the authority to take such a decision cannot reasonably be viewed as a mandate - whether morally or legally. Holyrood can do no more than ask Westminster for such a vote . Westminster has every right to say 'No - Come back post 2035!'
That is a whacking fib - Salmond did not say indyref was binding for a generation, he just said it was th ekind of opportunity that comes along in a generation - and it had been since the first devolution vote was fiddled by Labour in 1978. ,
Labour still have a bit of work to do in the Midlands.
Labour has an enormous amount of work to do almost everywhere South of the Humber, save for inner London. The fact that the Tories aren't doing worse isn't merely, as was suggested earlier, a product of the extraordinary circumstances created by Brexit and the Plague. Labour also has a dreadful image problem.
I'm not sure about that.
Their brand of politics (wokeness, veganism, Greta-loving, "ist" obsessed, and open immigration mindset) is seeping into the home counties through the 20 and 30 somethings, and those 40 and early 50 somethings who want to impress them.
Don't see much evidence for that around here TBH, and this is Hertfordshire, not Cornwall or the Welsh Marches.
Besides, the more Starmer sucks up to his core vote with metro left-liberal policies, the worse his position in the rubble of the Red Wall becomes.
In a couple of weeks less than 0.25% of hospital beds will be taken up by covid positive patients. To continue living the restricted life we are when Covid is almost a medical irrelevance to the NHS is plain daft.
FPT - Since you like to ignore reality I'll tell you again:
Well - if it is similar to the Spanish pattern many of the new cases were in the younger age groups doing the things they do. However, a few weeks on and now olde relatives and even old people's homes are again being infected and both the hospital admissions and deaths are rising too. The Spanish health minister reckong the majority of outbrekas are family related. I think the death rate will be lower this time round as there have been some treatment advances. The idea that we don't have to worry is I think mistaken.
Well, the supposed Leicester hotspot started 6 weeks ago, in overcrowded multigenerational households, yet the local hospitalisations are down six fold. They should be appearing by now. It is genuinely hard to explain.
While obviously hospitalisations and deaths are a trailing indicator, the KCL Covid app suggests population symptoms are down too. We are clearly missing some of the picture.
Personally, I would keep music and nightclubs closed, discourage international travel and for the remainder of activities to resume with careful hygiene, masks and social distancing, and keep a watchful eye on the figures.
My guess is that this is down to a combination of high levels of public take-up of masks, compliance with regulations amongst the overwhelming majority of businesses, exceptionally high levels of working from home relative to many other European countries, and a lot of voluntary self-segregation by vulnerable groups.
Having parents who are old enough to be counted as vulnerable, I know at least anecdotally how people who may be reasonably healthy for their age and not prone to hysteria are nonetheless taking this disease very seriously indeed. My Dad in particular is very cautious; he could be persuaded to go to an outdoor dining venue with us about three weeks ago but other than that I think he's still living pretty much as if it were April, other than the fact that he sees one close friend regularly (who's effectively the other half of his support bubble, I suppose) and his brother and sister from time to time.
In terms of what we can get away with opening, at this stage I think we'd probably agree quite closely. I think that nightclubs, rock concerts, choirs and packed football stadiums are off limits for the duration of this crisis, but just about everything else should be doable with caution. Following the announcement a few weeks back of the arts rescue package, I wonder whether or not the Government has given consideration to telling the theatres to re-open, operate at a loss and top up their balance sheets with grants?
EDIT: and yes, international travel is also a terrible idea under current circumstances - you risk getting caught out big time both by our Government's ever-changing restrictions and by those of the countries that you're visiting. I dare say that the Foreign Office advice against non-essential travel was probably relaxed to try to prop up travel agencies and tour operators, but frankly they'd have been better off lobbing money at them instead.
Anyone know why WFH isn’t anywhere near as popular in Berlin, Madrid and Paris as in London? The numbers are absolutely stark.
I can only speak from second hand knowledge of European friends - they mainly say that employers are far less trusting in Europe than in England where flexible working and wfh is already fairly common place. That's why it's been easier for UK plc to adjust to the new normal compared to Europe and a lot of the advanced "activity" indicators for the UK economy aren't as accurate, especially when used by overseas analysts who don't understand the scale of wfh in the UK. Iirc one of those advanced activity models predicted 4.5% growth in June based on traffic and public transport statistics and POS data from high street cafés and restaurants but it came in at 8.7% because so many people are WFH.
Makes sense. I have a mate who works in London for a Spanish company. The founder is “against” WFH apparently. They all WFH anyway a few days a week but make sure they are all in the office when the founder visits - about five times a year.
Yeah my wife had a friend who works for a German company in Kent and they have called everyone back to the office from September, they have installed plastic screens and isolated all the desks etc... The friend is thinking of quitting because she thinks the company will keep that setup post-virus as it makes it more difficult for colleagues to talk to each other.
The UK tendency to WFH is good for keeping infection levels low, but terrible for our city centres, esp London.
It is one reason our GDP drop was so much more severe.
But also good for the recovery because people can be easily mobilised to start working again without needing modifications to work places. Tbh, there is going to be a new reality for hospitality business and lunch places that serve office workers, I don't know what it is but the person who figures it out will make millions.
The simplest and most obvious scenario is that all those business support services in the city centres simply contract until the remaining providers match the remaining customers, and new businesses open to replace them in the areas where more people are now working. Some economic activity is thus displaced from traditional businesses districts to suburban and rural areas. Rebalancing in action.
But for a lot of people lunch is a social thing, how do you get a bunch of disparate colleagues working all over the country together to have lunch or go for a coffee etc... How do you make these people not so spread out?
I actually think that the best model might be in office catering for "in office days" I think that activity will increase a lot.
I know this may be a betrayal but right now he would be a huge improvement on Boris
Seriously, what would he have done differently? His criticisms are at the margins, really.
He is not hands on, he does not sack people he should, and he has gone into hiding at just the moment he should be fighting for HMG
Underestimate Johnson at your peril. Johnson reaches parts other Tories cannot reach.. He is a working class hero, he is catnip to the hoi poloi. He has a dog whistle and he knows when to blow that whistle.
Johnson's cheery bon hommie and feel good optimism cuts through to the have nots. Why? He is very good at scapegoating opponents. Remainers, socialists, the EU, unpatriotic traitors, foreigners, pessimists, scroungers, asylum seekers, those who come across as being different to Johnson.
The country may find itself on its knees before too long, but from the depths of your destiude, unemployed despair, a tousle haired clown in a big comedic suit will tell you everything will be great again if we can rid ourselves of pessimistic traitors.
Frankly you are too mesmerised by him.He came close to being defeated in 2012 by a discredited Ken Livingstone when seeking re-election as London Mayor.A stronger Labour candidate would have ousted him. His popularity has already plummeted and at some point is likely to collapse. His credibility will not recover once that has happened. Reality will percolate through - and few will want to stand by such an obviously corrupt and incompetent regime.Of course, even in the ruins of Berlin in April 1945 there remained a few ardent loyalists.
I know this may be a betrayal but right now he would be a huge improvement on Boris
Seriously, what would he have done differently? His criticisms are at the margins, really.
He is not hands on, he does not sack people he should, and he has gone into hiding at just the moment he should be fighting for HMG
Underestimate Johnson at your peril. Johnson reaches parts other Tories cannot reach.. He is a working class hero, he is catnip to the hoi poloi. He has a dog whistle and he knows when to blow that whistle.
Johnson's cheery bon hommie and feel good optimism cuts through to the have nots. Why? He is very good at scapegoating opponents. Remainers, socialists, the EU, unpatriotic traitors, foreigners, pessimists, scroungers, asylum seekers, those who come across as being different to Johnson.
The country may find itself on its knees before too long, but from the depths of your destiude, unemployed despair, a tousle haired clown in a big comedic suit will tell you everything will be great again if we can rid ourselves of pessimistic traitors.
If that was an asset in 2019, it won't be in 2024.
Rishi is starting to get personal brand recognition through his initiatives now, and he's becoming an effective Chancellor already. My local has a "thanks Rishi!" sign up outside it, which must royally grate with Boris.
2021 is probably too early for him, but desperate times call for desperate measures.
I think him and Hunt should team up (Hunt can't be PM due to the rat eyes, and zero charisma).
The other think that helps Rishi is that he's becoming a first name political character. Not a lot of politicians get to that level so quickly. Everyone I know has done the "thanks Rishi" Instagram post, they don't say "thanks, chancellor". His brand recognition is absolutely huge at the moment and becoming Rishi rather than Mr Sunak or just Sunak is very good for his future chances of becoming PM. That he seems highly competent also helps.
Precisely the point I made in the previous thread.
It's a thing.
I think they fear that Boris will get a deal and the world won't collapse so now they have to move onto the next thing that makes Brexit the worst thing to ever happen, including both world wars.
It's also completely self-defeating. If Scotland falls off then the political centre of balance of the rump British state shifts in a rightward and Eurosceptic direction. Thus, unless the old continuity Remain mob are planning on a mass march into exile in Edinburgh, they're shooting themselves in the foot.
I know this may be a betrayal but right now he would be a huge improvement on Boris
Why do you say that? Not saying you are wrong
So far I have seen not a single policy from starmer apart from a statement of "well I wouldn't have done it that way" without telling us what he would have done and why it would be better.
Now I am not claiming he wouldn't be better. Just saying so far there is actually zero evidence to base it on. Policy and idea wise they guy is a vacuum.
Boris has disappeared, failed to sack those damaging his government, and does not do detail
Great campaigner but poor at the hard work of government
But your proof that Starmer would be better is where? He wasn't exactly great at being dpp
This Government is destroying the Union day by day.
People on here were warning about this back in 2016 and that was with a more Conservative govt than the UKIP-lite we have now.
You are a beautiful example of the phenomena I've just posted about in response to @MaxPB
You have been driven mad by Brexit, and are now delighted that there's a new course of revenge that's potentially about to get served up on the table.
I do find it ironic that people insist that taking back control is ok regardless of the economic costs but it's not OK to give control back to a different group of people.
The only person I can think of on this site who is adamant there should be no second referendum even if the Scots vote to hold one is HYUFD - and he's a Remainer.
Not entirely. The result of a Holyrood election which sees turnout of circa 50% should not override a Referendum in respect of which 85% voted. The lower turnout for Holyrood v Westminster too would tend to suggest that voters in Scotland see it as a lower or secondary tier of authority.
The Holyrood election won't be overriding the Referendum. Overriding the referendum would be taking an SNP majority as a Yes vote. Instead the Holyrood election would merely set the stage for a new vote. Only a Yes Referendum can overturn the No.
As for lower turnout there is a very simple rule in politics: If you don't vote, you can't complain. If the 35% who didn't vote all don't want a second referendum then they should vote to say so. If they don't, that's their choice.
The SNP are seeking to use next year's Holyrood election to obtain a mandate - as they see it - to revist a decision taken by a clear margin in September 2014 on a turnout of circa 85%. The SNP First Minister at the time clearly stated that the decision then taken was to be binding 'for a generation'. A subsequent election on a circa 50% turnout for a second tier authority which lacks the authority to take such a decision cannot reasonably be viewed as a mandate - whether morally or legally. Holyrood can do no more than ask Westminster for such a vote . Westminster has every right to say 'No - Come back post 2035!'
That is a whacking fib - Salmond did not say indyref was binding for a generation, he just said it was th ekind of opportunity that comes along in a generation - and it had been since the first devolution vote was fiddled by Labour in 1978. ,
This contemporary article from the Guardian suggests otherwise.
Precisely the point I made in the previous thread.
It's a thing.
I am increasingly convinced by my theory that Starmer, in 2024, will campaign to reenter EEA, or on a referendum to Rejoin the EU.
It is the only way he can solve his Scottish problem, and, besides, by then, it might be an EXTREMELY popular position.
I don't think he will. He will campaign for "closer links" and "more co-operation" but he won't poke the hornet's nest with a referendum to rejoin.
He might renegotiate EEA entry on the sly after 2024 though. Personally, I think he'll just add to and beef-up the FTA and give more migration rights.
But he needs something to solve his Scotch problem.
Sturgeon will win in 2021 and demand indyref 2; the Tories, facing very possible defeat in this, will clearly say No ("once in a generation"). Yes this may well stoke grievance, but if the alternative is the ACTUAL loss of the Union then a bit of grievance can be tolerated. It might even work to the advantage of London if the Nats go mad and declare UDI or whatever,
So, we reach 2024, and Starmer is doing well in the polls but winning a majority without Scotland seems impossible. And the Nats will demand indyref2 as the price of support.
But if Starmer offers the Scots, and everyone else, a rethink on EU membership, then suddenly Scots might look more kindly on him.
My bet is there is a decent majority in Scotland for staying in the UK if it comes with EU membership. Game changer for Labour in Scotland?
I know this may be a betrayal but right now he would be a huge improvement on Boris
Seriously, what would he have done differently? His criticisms are at the margins, really.
He is not hands on, he does not sack people he should, and he has gone into hiding at just the moment he should be fighting for HMG
Underestimate Johnson at your peril. Johnson reaches parts other Tories cannot reach.. He is a working class hero, he is catnip to the hoi poloi. He has a dog whistle and he knows when to blow that whistle.
Johnson's cheery bon hommie and feel good optimism cuts through to the have nots. Why? He is very good at scapegoating opponents. Remainers, socialists, the EU, unpatriotic traitors, foreigners, pessimists, scroungers, asylum seekers, those who come across as being different to Johnson.
The country may find itself on its knees before too long, but from the depths of your destiude, unemployed despair, a tousle haired clown in a big comedic suit will tell you everything will be great again if we can rid ourselves of pessimistic traitors.
Frankly you are too mesmerised by him.He came close to being defeated in 2012 by a discredited Ken Livingstone when seeking re-election as London Mayor.A stronger Labour candidate would have ousted him. His popularity has already plummeted and at some point is likely to collapse. His credibility will not recover once that has happened. Reality will percolate through - and few will want to stand by such an obviously corrupt and incompetent regime.Of course, even in the ruins of Berlin in April 1945 there remained a few ardent loyalists.
I can't bear the man. For the Darius Guppy incident alone the man should be nowhere near public office.
HOWEVER, the people I rub shoulders with won't have a bad word said against him. He strikes a chord with them. The xenophobic rhetoric works for the "I'm not a racist but..." types. Johnson cleverly taps into this. It has worked well elsewhere too, at present and in relatively recent history.
I know this may be a betrayal but right now he would be a huge improvement on Boris
Seriously, what would he have done differently? His criticisms are at the margins, really.
He is not hands on, he does not sack people he should, and he has gone into hiding at just the moment he should be fighting for HMG
Underestimate Johnson at your peril. Johnson reaches parts other Tories cannot reach.. He is a working class hero, he is catnip to the hoi poloi. He has a dog whistle and he knows when to blow that whistle.
Johnson's cheery bon hommie and feel good optimism cuts through to the have nots. Why? He is very good at scapegoating opponents. Remainers, socialists, the EU, unpatriotic traitors, foreigners, pessimists, scroungers, asylum seekers, those who come across as being different to Johnson.
The country may find itself on its knees before too long, but from the depths of your destiude, unemployed despair, a tousle haired clown in a big comedic suit will tell you everything will be great again if we can rid ourselves of pessimistic traitors.
2021 is probably too early for him, but desperate times call for desperate measures.
That's the tricky bit. Pounce too late, and the situation will be too desperate, and Rishi will be tarred by his association with it. Pounce too early, and he will be blamed for the fallout because loyalists will insist that everything was fine before.
Is there a window where Boris takes the hit for agreeing a rubbish deal, and Rishi can take the credit for stopping the clock at one minute to midnight? If there is, it's a narrow one.
In a couple of weeks less than 0.25% of hospital beds will be taken up by covid positive patients. To continue living the restricted life we are when Covid is almost a medical irrelevance to the NHS is plain daft.
FPT - Since you like to ignore reality I'll tell you again:
Well - if it is similar to the Spanish pattern many of the new cases were in the younger age groups doing the things they do. However, a few weeks on and now olde relatives and even old people's homes are again being infected and both the hospital admissions and deaths are rising too. The Spanish health minister reckong the majority of outbrekas are family related. I think the death rate will be lower this time round as there have been some treatment advances. The idea that we don't have to worry is I think mistaken.
Well, the supposed Leicester hotspot started 6 weeks ago, in overcrowded multigenerational households, yet the local hospitalisations are down six fold. They should be appearing by now. It is genuinely hard to explain.
While obviously hospitalisations and deaths are a trailing indicator, the KCL Covid app suggests population symptoms are down too. We are clearly missing some of the picture.
Personally, I would keep music and nightclubs closed, discourage international travel and for the remainder of activities to resume with careful hygiene, masks and social distancing, and keep a watchful eye on the figures.
My guess is that this is down to a combination of high levels of public take-up of masks, compliance with regulations amongst the overwhelming majority of businesses, exceptionally high levels of working from home relative to many other European countries, and a lot of voluntary self-segregation by vulnerable groups.
Having parents who are old enough to be counted as vulnerable, I know at least anecdotally how people who may be reasonably healthy for their age and not prone to hysteria are nonetheless taking this disease very seriously indeed. My Dad in particular is very cautious; he could be persuaded to go to an outdoor dining venue with us about three weeks ago but other than that I think he's still living pretty much as if it were April, other than the fact that he sees one close friend regularly (who's effectively the other half of his support bubble, I suppose) and his brother and sister from time to time.
In terms of what we can get away with opening, at this stage I think we'd probably agree quite closely. I think that nightclubs, rock concerts, choirs and packed football stadiums are off limits for the duration of this crisis, but just about everything else should be doable with caution. Following the announcement a few weeks back of the arts rescue package, I wonder whether or not the Government has given consideration to telling the theatres to re-open, operate at a loss and top up their balance sheets with grants?
EDIT: and yes, international travel is also a terrible idea under current circumstances - you risk getting caught out big time both by our Government's ever-changing restrictions and by those of the countries that you're visiting. I dare say that the Foreign Office advice against non-essential travel was probably relaxed to try to prop up travel agencies and tour operators, but frankly they'd have been better off lobbing money at them instead.
Anyone know why WFH isn’t anywhere near as popular in Berlin, Madrid and Paris as in London? The numbers are absolutely stark.
I can only speak from second hand knowledge of European friends - they mainly say that employers are far less trusting in Europe than in England where flexible working and wfh is already fairly common place. That's why it's been easier for UK plc to adjust to the new normal compared to Europe and a lot of the advanced "activity" indicators for the UK economy aren't as accurate, especially when used by overseas analysts who don't understand the scale of wfh in the UK. Iirc one of those advanced activity models predicted 4.5% growth in June based on traffic and public transport statistics and POS data from high street cafés and restaurants but it came in at 8.7% because so many people are WFH.
3 months ago I got this from some YouGov data -
55% of the workforce was full or partially working from home. In London, this reached 67%.
So, the UK has an atypically large service sector by European standards, and a much bigger capacity for remote working. The result: much less transmission in workplaces and on public transport.
I know this may be a betrayal but right now he would be a huge improvement on Boris
Seriously, what would he have done differently? His criticisms are at the margins, really.
He is not hands on, he does not sack people he should, and he has gone into hiding at just the moment he should be fighting for HMG
Underestimate Johnson at your peril. Johnson reaches parts other Tories cannot reach.. He is a working class hero, he is catnip to the hoi poloi. He has a dog whistle and he knows when to blow that whistle.
Johnson's cheery bon hommie and feel good optimism cuts through to the have nots. Why? He is very good at scapegoating opponents. Remainers, socialists, the EU, unpatriotic traitors, foreigners, pessimists, scroungers, asylum seekers, those who come across as being different to Johnson.
The country may find itself on its knees before too long, but from the depths of your destiude, unemployed despair, a tousle haired clown in a big comedic suit will tell you everything will be great again if we can rid ourselves of pessimistic traitors.
Frankly you are too mesmerised by him.He came close to being defeated in 2012 by a discredited Ken Livingstone when seeking re-election as London Mayor.A stronger Labour candidate would have ousted him. His popularity has already plummeted and at some point is likely to collapse. His credibility will not recover once that has happened. Reality will percolate through - and few will want to stand by such an obviously corrupt and incompetent regime.Of course, even in the ruins of Berlin in April 1945 there remained a few ardent loyalists.
I can't bear the man. For the Darius Guppy incident alone the man should be nowhere near public office.
HOWEVER, the people I rub shoulders with won't have a bad word said against him. He strikes a chord with them. The xenophobic rhetoric works for the "I'm not a racist but..." types. Johnson cleverly taps into this. It has worked well elsewhere too, at present and in relatively recent history.
To repeat an earlier point made - they sound like the Eastenders who admired the Kray twins!
Comments
London
Labour 56%
Tories 24%
Rest of South
Tories 50%
Labour 28%
Midlands/Wales
Tories 43%
Labour 40%
North
Labour 50%
Tories 38%
*The more any small outbreaks are magnified and scare people
*The less evidence is needed that the dreaded Second Wave is about to crash upon the shore, and
*The greater the tendency towards Draconian responses to crush it
See New Zealand, where a small cluster in Auckland resulted in the lockdown of the entire city (about a third of the country's population) and the General Election being put back by a month.
Scotland and Northern Ireland, whilst obviously not being identical cases, are both closer to elimination than England and Wales. That could be part of the explanation for Sturgeon's reluctance to unshutter the economy, and the Northern Ireland health minister suggesting reimposing restrictions despite the fact that his hospitals are down to their last four Covid patients.
Labour still have a bit of work to do in the Midlands.
As for lower turnout there is a very simple rule in politics: If you don't vote, you can't complain. If the 35% who didn't vote all don't want a second referendum then they should vote to say so. If they don't, that's their choice.
https://twitter.com/jonfasman/status/1296101254540730369
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etviGf1uWlg
Danger for the SNP is more that a lot of their voters who voted for them in 2015 and 2019 get disillusioned by Sturgeon's failure to deliver an independence referendum between now and 2024 and stay at home in large numbers like they did in 2017.
I do know that for over a decade, in London, WFH has been a part of every job/company I worked with/for. One that, in general you weren't supposed to do every day, but for minding kids on occasion, waiting for big deliveries, plumbers etc.
So the concept and a lot of infrastructure was there.
Everyone doing it at the same time was a big strain on systems, but they seem to have just managed....
Graduate, the rest of us are OK
55% of the workforce was full or partially working from home. In London, this reached 67%.
He is such a lazy, selfish, narcissistic prick.
I wish he'd piss off.
The question was asked earlier as to who was right about the potential for disease transmission in offices: the French, who are panicking and have started ordering masks everywhere, or Matt Hancock, who says that step isn't necessary (although FWIW I bet it happens eventually, anyway.) The answer is, perhaps, that both Hancock and the French Government are right. It's simply that the potential for the disease to circulate in British workplaces is, on average, much lower, obvious outliers such as abattoirs and veg pickers living in dorms excepted.
Most consultants fly in for 4-6 weeks and then piss off. To implement sustainable change you need to embed yourself for at least 6 months and build relationships with people, and get them on side.
Otherwise you'll face passive and even active resistance as soon as you're gone, and nothing will happen (and if it does it won't be positive).
So far I have seen not a single policy from starmer apart from a statement of "well I wouldn't have done it that way" without telling us what he would have done and why it would be better.
Now I am not claiming he wouldn't be better. Just saying so far there is actually zero evidence to base it on. Policy and idea wise they guy is a vacuum.
It's something that should really only be done/led by experienced people but too often now the Big4 will hire bright young graduates to do it, who are able to turn reports out quickly but know nothing, and then the partner/exec director who does know something will only fly in at the start and end to speak to the CEO, and that's it.
It pays well but no-one likes you.
It is one reason our GDP drop was so much more severe.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keir_Hardie
If, on the other hand, we have widespread disruption with many or all pupils sent home in large numbers of schools then I think it will be down hill from here.
Ironically the pupils who can least afford the time off, i.e. those approaching exams, are the ones we could send home without major economic disruption as their parents would not need to take time off work to look after them.
Great campaigner but poor at the hard work of government
Johnson's cheery bon hommie and feel good optimism cuts through to the have nots. Why? He is very good at scapegoating opponents. Remainers, socialists, the EU, unpatriotic traitors, foreigners, pessimists, scroungers, asylum seekers, those who come across as being different to Johnson.
The country may find itself on its knees before too long, but from the depths of your destiude, unemployed despair, a tousle haired clown in a big comedic suit will tell you everything will be great again if we can rid ourselves of pessimistic traitors.
weir
weird
Keith
feign
deign
reign
foreign
rein
heinous
vein
feint
It's a thing.
It is the only way he can solve his Scottish problem, and, besides, by then, it might be an EXTREMELY popular position.
The nightly sideways glance at the American polling data:
Three polls tonight and Rasmussen has Biden ahead 49-43 so a slight narrowing from the last poll - as the crosstabs are behind a paywall I can't comment on the sampling.
Economist/YouGov puts Biden 10 points ahead (50-40).
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/c6n58wb53l/econTabReport.pdf
The sample is 41% Democrat, 33% Independent and 26% Republican and the Independents break 42-37 for Trump but the weight of the Democratic vote gives Biden a comfortable lead on a 4% swing from 2016.
The Hill/Harris X poll has Biden up 45-39 but includes 4% non voters so excluding those it's a 47-41 lead for Biden.
https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/512611-poll-biden-leads-trump-by-6-points-nationwide
Sampling is 37% Democrat, 32% Republican and 29% Independent and 2% Other so a very different sample and much nearer the 2016 return.
Can we explain the disparity (a 6-point lead vs a 10-point lead) purely by sampling? After excluding the "would not vote", the Independents in the Harris survey break 40-38 for Trump so pretty similar to the YouGov numbers.
Any thoughts?
Their brand of politics (wokeness, veganism, Greta-loving, "ist" obsessed, and open immigration mindset) is seeping into the home counties through the 20 and 30 somethings, and those 40 and early 50 somethings who want to impress them.
https://www.ctshirts.com/uk/2-in-1-silk-face-mask-&-pocket-square---berry/ACF0020BER.html?pf=browse#q=Face+masks&searchtype=text&start=1
Twat.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seona_Dancing
Rishi is starting to get personal brand recognition through his initiatives now, and he's becoming an effective Chancellor already. My local has a "thanks Rishi!" sign up outside it, which must royally grate with Boris.
2021 is probably too early for him, but desperate times call for desperate measures.
I think him and Hunt should team up (Hunt can't be PM due to the rat eyes, and zero charisma).
Besides, the more Starmer sucks up to his core vote with metro left-liberal policies, the worse his position in the rubble of the Red Wall becomes.
He might renegotiate EEA entry on the sly after 2024 though. Personally, I think he'll just add to and beef-up the FTA and give more migration rights.
I actually think that the best model might be in office catering for "in office days" I think that activity will increase a lot.
The tories are losing votes to.....er......a party that may not even stand next time and isn;t even trying that hard to win votes.
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiH5pK5-afrAhXUnVwKHXBHD3IQFjAEegQIBRAB&url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/17/scottish-independence-referendum-yes-no-agree-once-in-lifetime-vote&usg=AOvVaw10B2T7-giSIs6puZQEhQsY
Sturgeon will win in 2021 and demand indyref 2; the Tories, facing very possible defeat in this, will clearly say No ("once in a generation"). Yes this may well stoke grievance, but if the alternative is the ACTUAL loss of the Union then a bit of grievance can be tolerated. It might even work to the advantage of London if the Nats go mad and declare UDI or whatever,
So, we reach 2024, and Starmer is doing well in the polls but winning a majority without Scotland seems impossible. And the Nats will demand indyref2 as the price of support.
But if Starmer offers the Scots, and everyone else, a rethink on EU membership, then suddenly Scots might look more kindly on him.
My bet is there is a decent majority in Scotland for staying in the UK if it comes with EU membership. Game changer for Labour in Scotland?
HOWEVER, the people I rub shoulders with won't have a bad word said against him. He strikes a chord with them. The xenophobic rhetoric works for the "I'm not a racist but..." types. Johnson cleverly taps into this. It has worked well elsewhere too, at present and in relatively recent history.
Williamson is fucked.
Is there a window where Boris takes the hit for agreeing a rubbish deal, and Rishi can take the credit for stopping the clock at one minute to midnight? If there is, it's a narrow one.