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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON lead down to 2% while Starmer takes is now 4% ahead of Johnson as “Best PM” in latest YouGov

The trend in YouGov's "Best PM" ratings pic.twitter.com/tTBoZXCZwE

Read the full story here

IshmaelZ

First like Kier.

TheScreamingEagles

Well...

Stocky

Third, and FPT: I wholeheartedly agree - and have been banging on about this for a while - hospital admissions is the metric to look at. Number of deaths and number of infections are problematic measures.

On mutation - I`m no expert but I don`t think this is how natural selection works. Firstly, mutations come from errors in gene replication in one organism (not en masse) and, secondly, why would a mutation be favoured by natural selection when it makes it less successful in its environment?

Any biologists around?

MaxPB

FPT

@DavidL your fears may be coming true.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/08/19/scotland-struggles-rebound-despite-smaller-recession/

GDP grew by 5.7pc in June, falling short of the 8.7pc surge recorded nationally.

It came after the economy shrank by 5.8pc in March and 19.2pc in April - both extremely large drops, but less severe than the UK-wide collapse.

But despite this better starting position, growth has been slower since April.

As a result, the Scottish economy was still 17.6pc smaller in June than it was in February, meaning it has effectively been overtaken by the rest of the country. The British economy overall is now 17.2pc smaller than it was before the pandemic struck.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1296129601673015297

contrarian

The astonishing thing about that poll is the brexit party are on four per cent, despite not even trying to get elected. Despite not even being a thing.

That's two behind the liberal democrats and the greens.

Big_G_NorthWales

MaxPB said:

FPT

@DavidL your fears may be coming true.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/08/19/scotland-struggles-rebound-despite-smaller-recession/

GDP grew by 5.7pc in June, falling short of the 8.7pc surge recorded nationally.

It came after the economy shrank by 5.8pc in March and 19.2pc in April - both extremely large drops, but less severe than the UK-wide collapse.

But despite this better starting position, growth has been slower since April.

As a result, the Scottish economy was still 17.6pc smaller in June than it was in February, meaning it has effectively been overtaken by the rest of the country. The British economy overall is now 17.2pc smaller than it was before the pandemic struck.

The figures in your last paragraph will be interesting over the next few months

Here in North Wales economic activity has really picked up

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/rebeccaballhaus/status/1296123069350785025

Malmesbury

Stocky said:

Third, and FPT: I wholeheartedly agree - and have been banging on about this for a while - hospital admissions is the metric to look at. Number of deaths and number of infections are problematic measures.

On mutation - I`m no expert but I don`t think this is how natural selection works. Firstly, mutations come from errors in gene replication in one organism (not en masse) and, secondly, why would a mutation be favoured by natural selection when it makes it less successful in its environment?

Any biologists around?

In *theory* a less deadly bug has an advantage - since it doesn't kill/restrict the hosts activities, he/she can keep on passing it on. So the perfect disease would be insanely infectious and have no symptoms.

The question is hw much of an advantage that is for a given bug. Also the level of competition between strains of the bug.

NerysHughes

In a couple of weeks less than 0.25% of hospital beds will be taken up by covid positive patients. To continue living the restricted life we are when Covid is almost a medical irrelevance to the NHS is plain daft.

Richard_Nabavi

Boris is proving as bad a PM as I and many others predicted over a year ago. The only surprise is that voters have been so tolerant of his manifest unsuitability to hold high office. The trend downhill will continue; he's not suddenly going to become fit to be PM, the blunders and U-turns will multiply, and the end of the Brexit transition is coming very soon. Even a really good government would be struggling with the current challenges, but in terms of pure administrative competence this is one of the worst, if not the worst, since WWII.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1296130822941093888

Big_G_NorthWales

Richard_Nabavi said:

Boris is proving as bad a PM as I and many others predicted over a year ago. The only surprise is that voters have been so tolerant of his manifest unsuitability to hold high office. The trend downhill will continue; he's not suddenly going to become fit to be PM, the blunders and U-turns will multiply, and the end of the Brexit transition is coming very soon. Even a really good government would be struggling with the current challenges, but in terms of pure administrative competence this is one of the worst, if not the worst, since WWII.

Not much to disagree with there

Boris is not the PM for this crisis and I hope his backbenchers take action

felix

NerysHughes said:

In a couple of weeks less than 0.25% of hospital beds will be taken up by covid positive patients. To continue living the restricted life we are when Covid is almost a medical irrelevance to the NHS is plain daft.

FPT - Since you like to ignore reality I'll tell you again:

Well - if it is similar to the Spanish pattern many of the new cases were in the younger age groups doing the things they do. However, a few weeks on and now olde relatives and even old people's homes are again being infected and both the hospital admissions and deaths are rising too. The Spanish health minister reckong the majority of outbrekas are family related. I think the death rate will be lower this time round as there have been some treatment advances. The idea that we don't have to worry is I think mistaken.

stodge

NerysHughes said:

In a couple of weeks less than 0.25% of hospital beds will be taken up by covid positive patients. To continue living the restricted life we are when Covid is almost a medical irrelevance to the NHS is plain daft.

It's not an irrelevance to my brother or the thousands like him for whom Covid-19 is an ongoing and serious medical problem.

The good news however is for the first time since March he has tested negative and he is therefore free to go as he pleases.

The cost of that is he has to wear a mask and gloves at all times when around people because his low white blood cell count and weakened immune system make him susceptible to re-infection.

That is the reality for those who try to assert Covid is nothing, that it has gone away, that we should get back to "normal", that we should ditch masks and social distancing. For some people, pending a vaccine, there will be no normal and of course for whose who have lost loved ones because of this virus, it will take a long time for them to return to "normal".

But as long as GDP is going up, people are going into pubs and enjoying cheap meals out, who cares? Everything's wonderful....

Big_G_NorthWales

Norway imposes a 10 day quarantine on UK, Austria, Greece and Ireland

Stocky

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Norway imposes a 10 day quarantine on UK, Austria, Greece and Ireland

Good grief. They`re crazier that we are. Greece! And why us with our current levels?

WhisperingOracle

Stocky said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Norway imposes a 10 day quarantine on UK, Austria, Greece and Ireland

Good grief. They`re crazier that we are. Greece! And why us with our current levels?

The Greeks will be relieved they've got through most of the holiday season without this. Their infection numbers are still very, very low.

isam

Interesting to see Mike agrees with me, or used to in 2011 anyway, that the positives are more important than the net when it comes to leader ratings

Big_G_NorthWales

Stocky said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Norway imposes a 10 day quarantine on UK, Austria, Greece and Ireland

Good grief. They`re crazier that we are. Greece! And why us with our current levels?

Crazy is the word for most everything these days

WhisperingOracle

Richard_Nabavi said:

Boris is proving as bad a PM as I and many others predicted over a year ago. The only surprise is that voters have been so tolerant of his manifest unsuitability to hold high office. The trend downhill will continue; he's not suddenly going to become fit to be PM, the blunders and U-turns will multiply, and the end of the Brexit transition is coming very soon. Even a really good government would be struggling with the current challenges, but in terms of pure administrative competence this is one of the worst, if not the worst, since WWII.

Agreed, this is going to be an exceptionally difficult few months for the government. The furlough scheme is ending, the bills for the virus crisis are starting to come in, and the Brexit negotiations are coming to a head ; what is this if not a perfect storm. I actually thought this erosion of support would come slower, in the late autumn, but the instances of incompetence have accelerated the process.

MaxPB

Stocky said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Norway imposes a 10 day quarantine on UK, Austria, Greece and Ireland

Good grief. They`re crazier that we are. Greece! And why us with our current levels?

Yes at just 11 new cases per 100k in the last week (and a big part of that from the one outbreak in Northampton) it does seem a bit ott.

Stocky

MaxPB said:

Stocky said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Norway imposes a 10 day quarantine on UK, Austria, Greece and Ireland

Good grief. They`re crazier that we are. Greece! And why us with our current levels?

Yes at just 11 new cases per 100k in the last week (and a big part of that from the one outbreak in Northampton) it does seem a bit ott.

You still in Sicily? If not,, how was UK airport on way back?

MaxPB

Stocky said:

MaxPB said:

Stocky said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Norway imposes a 10 day quarantine on UK, Austria, Greece and Ireland

Good grief. They`re crazier that we are. Greece! And why us with our current levels?

Yes at just 11 new cases per 100k in the last week (and a big part of that from the one outbreak in Northampton) it does seem a bit ott.

You still in Sicily? If not,, how was UK airport on way back?

Still here, wish I'd brought my laptop because both of us want to stay longer.

Pagan2

FPT

Malmesbury said:

Casino_Royale said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Excellent piece. I particularly liked....:

'McKinsey (the consultants invariably brought in by those CEOs and others too unimaginative to think for themselves, too scared to make their own decisions or just looking for someone else to blame).'

This was exactly my experience with them. They would come to you room, spend a lot of time finding out what you did and how you did it. They would type it up and report this to the CEO, leaving you wondering why the CEO didn't just ask you himself. The result of all this earnest research was the recommendation that the firm (which was profitable and successful) should carry on pretty much as before.

Naturally they were paid a huge sum for this timeless advice.

There is a reason for that which is (a) objectivity and (b) independence.

On the first, most staff will tell the CEO what they want to hear or what they think will make themselves look good in front of the CEO or advance their own agendas to the CEO. CEO doesn't know which to believe. He or she also doesn't know who's stayed quiet about what's really going on: everything gets filtered by chinese whispers & agendas through the chain of command.

On the second, the name of a McKinsey or Big4 firm carries weight as an independent assessor/auditor thus lending credibility to the findings.

That's why so many hire management consultants: to tell them the state of play in their own company, benchmark it against others in the industry (they'll have done the same elsewhere) and use their brand-name as credibility for the findings so they can take action.

That's no excuse for offering simple or poor advice, or subject to confirmation bias, and that's what differentiates good consultants from bad ones.

I did IT Consultancy for a while. A couple interesting things -

- Coming in from outside, we would often have to build documentation for a rats nest of systems. Often I would be told that my diagram (entirely created so I could understand it) was immensely valuable to the client. They often had no idea what was connecting to what.....

- Large companies/organisations are often a jumble of fiefdoms. They will tell you what protects their little patch. Quite often we had to get direct access to systems and work round the incumbent teams to find out what the hell was going on.

- Defiance. You might think that the CEO orders something to happen and... well stuff happens. In fact, when it effects their fiefdoms (see above), the incumbents will often defend their patch to the point of insubordination. And beyond.

All of the above is part of the reason that change is very very hard in large organisations. To the point where, it is necessary to burn the whole thing down and start again, every so often.

The answer still should never be mcKinseys. For example I worked at ici as a chemist. They came in asked us all what we did and how long it took. Mostly people worked a few hours over their time every week because some things just can't fit into a 7.5 hour day, eg you have something that requires a 10 hour run to complete.

McKinseys then too how long we spent doing each task and used to formula of putative hours worked/ divided by actual hours worked and used this to calculate how long things took so for example a 10 hour reaction apparently would now only take 8 hours.

They then used these revised times to say you have overmanning and a load of people got made redundant. McKinseys wandered off into the sunset with a pocket full of cash....senior managers were happy they were now a lean efficient company.....that division of ICI ended up going down the pan about a year later as nothing was ever getting done as we now had to few staff to do everything and people were so pissed off at the extra work they were expected to do to pick up the slack they were saying "sod it end of my contracted hours, want me to stay finish this experiment then pay me overtime"

With McKinseys you certainly get all the stupid you can afford

tlg86

isam said:

Interesting to see Mike agrees with me, or used to in 2011 anyway, that the positives are more important than the net when it comes to leader ratings

It doesn't seem five minutes since I was working every hour God sent on the 2011 Census. Where does the time go?

Pagan2

Stocky said:

Third, and FPT: I wholeheartedly agree - and have been banging on about this for a while - hospital admissions is the metric to look at. Number of deaths and number of infections are problematic measures.

On mutation - I`m no expert but I don`t think this is how natural selection works. Firstly, mutations come from errors in gene replication in one organism (not en masse) and, secondly, why would a mutation be favoured by natural selection when it makes it less successful in its environment?

Any biologists around?

Mutation is probably the wrong word for non viral organisms as there is much evidence the mingling of the dna from two parents plays a far more pivotal role in changes.

However for viruses which reproduce by turning living cells into virus factories yes it is replication that is the issue. However I think maybe you are confusing what makes a virus successful. The most successful virus would be one its host never realises it has and that spreads easily. It won't kill anyone or even cause comment it will just lurk around doing its thing. The more a virus does damage the less sucessful it will be

Foxy

felix said:

NerysHughes said:

In a couple of weeks less than 0.25% of hospital beds will be taken up by covid positive patients. To continue living the restricted life we are when Covid is almost a medical irrelevance to the NHS is plain daft.

FPT - Since you like to ignore reality I'll tell you again:

Well - if it is similar to the Spanish pattern many of the new cases were in the younger age groups doing the things they do. However, a few weeks on and now olde relatives and even old people's homes are again being infected and both the hospital admissions and deaths are rising too. The Spanish health minister reckong the majority of outbrekas are family related. I think the death rate will be lower this time round as there have been some treatment advances. The idea that we don't have to worry is I think mistaken.

Well, the supposed Leicester hotspot started 6 weeks ago, in overcrowded multigenerational households, yet the local hospitalisations are down six fold. They should be appearing by now. It is genuinely hard to explain.

While obviously hospitalisations and deaths are a trailing indicator, the KCL Covid app suggests population symptoms are down too. We are clearly missing some of the picture.

Personally, I would keep music and nightclubs closed, discourage international travel and for the remainder of activities to resume with careful hygiene, masks and social distancing, and keep a watchful eye on the figures.

moonshine

stodge said:

NerysHughes said:

In a couple of weeks less than 0.25% of hospital beds will be taken up by covid positive patients. To continue living the restricted life we are when Covid is almost a medical irrelevance to the NHS is plain daft.

It's not an irrelevance to my brother or the thousands like him for whom Covid-19 is an ongoing and serious medical problem.

The good news however is for the first time since March he has tested negative and he is therefore free to go as he pleases.

The cost of that is he has to wear a mask and gloves at all times when around people because his low white blood cell count and weakened immune system make him susceptible to re-infection.

That is the reality for those who try to assert Covid is nothing, that it has gone away, that we should get back to "normal", that we should ditch masks and social distancing. For some people, pending a vaccine, there will be no normal and of course for whose who have lost loved ones because of this virus, it will take a long time for them to return to "normal".

But as long as GDP is going up, people are going into pubs and enjoying cheap meals out, who cares? Everything's wonderful....

I don't think anyone has said that it's nothing or that it's completely gone away or that there aren't many people for whom it's changed (or ended) their lives in a terribly sad way.

It's that when looked at as a whole, the cure is now worse than the ailment.

Doubling in mental health problems? Pah, wimps. Kid's education? Stop being so lazy and watch youtube, schools are an unnecessary luxury. Undiagnosed cancers and hypertension? Not my problem (at least so I think). Untreated chronic conditions permanently affecting the rest of life? Who cares, medicine is all about acute infections diseases. Businesses failing? Stop being such a money grabbing capitalist and anyway what are you talking about, I have a mortgage holiday/triple lock pension/furlough pay/BBL/all time high SIPP etc...

Some people seem happy that we sacrifice everything at the altar of Covid and it's frankly a bit weird.

Stocky

Pagan2 said:

FPT

Malmesbury said:

Casino_Royale said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Excellent piece. I particularly liked....:

'McKinsey (the consultants invariably brought in by those CEOs and others too unimaginative to think for themselves, too scared to make their own decisions or just looking for someone else to blame).'

This was exactly my experience with them. They would come to you room, spend a lot of time finding out what you did and how you did it. They would type it up and report this to the CEO, leaving you wondering why the CEO didn't just ask you himself. The result of all this earnest research was the recommendation that the firm (which was profitable and successful) should carry on pretty much as before.

Naturally they were paid a huge sum for this timeless advice.

There is a reason for that which is (a) objectivity and (b) independence.

On the first, most staff will tell the CEO what they want to hear or what they think will make themselves look good in front of the CEO or advance their own agendas to the CEO. CEO doesn't know which to believe. He or she also doesn't know who's stayed quiet about what's really going on: everything gets filtered by chinese whispers & agendas through the chain of command.

On the second, the name of a McKinsey or Big4 firm carries weight as an independent assessor/auditor thus lending credibility to the findings.

That's why so many hire management consultants: to tell them the state of play in their own company, benchmark it against others in the industry (they'll have done the same elsewhere) and use their brand-name as credibility for the findings so they can take action.

That's no excuse for offering simple or poor advice, or subject to confirmation bias, and that's what differentiates good consultants from bad ones.

I did IT Consultancy for a while. A couple interesting things -

- Coming in from outside, we would often have to build documentation for a rats nest of systems. Often I would be told that my diagram (entirely created so I could understand it) was immensely valuable to the client. They often had no idea what was connecting to what.....

- Large companies/organisations are often a jumble of fiefdoms. They will tell you what protects their little patch. Quite often we had to get direct access to systems and work round the incumbent teams to find out what the hell was going on.

- Defiance. You might think that the CEO orders something to happen and... well stuff happens. In fact, when it effects their fiefdoms (see above), the incumbents will often defend their patch to the point of insubordination. And beyond.

All of the above is part of the reason that change is very very hard in large organisations. To the point where, it is necessary to burn the whole thing down and start again, every so often.

The answer still should never be mcKinseys. For example I worked at ici as a chemist. They came in asked us all what we did and how long it took. Mostly people worked a few hours over their time every week because some things just can't fit into a 7.5 hour day, eg you have something that requires a 10 hour run to complete.

McKinseys then too how long we spent doing each task and used to formula of putative hours worked/ divided by actual hours worked and used this to calculate how long things took so for example a 10 hour reaction apparently would now only take 8 hours.

They then used these revised times to say you have overmanning and a load of people got made redundant. McKinseys wandered off into the sunset with a pocket full of cash....senior managers were happy they were now a lean efficient company.....that division of ICI ended up going down the pan about a year later as nothing was ever getting done as we now had to few staff to do everything and people were so pissed off at the extra work they were expected to do to pick up the slack they were saying "sod it end of my contracted hours, want me to stay finish this experiment then pay me overtime"

With McKinseys you certainly get all the stupid you can afford

Management consultants eh. I`ve asked a few, over the years, what they do exactly. The answer is the same: word salad until one`s eyes glaze over. I`m left with the impression that they exist to bail senior managers out from having to make difficult decisions for an absurdly large fee. Hired bad boys if you like.

Stuartinromford

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Boris is proving as bad a PM as I and many others predicted over a year ago. The only surprise is that voters have been so tolerant of his manifest unsuitability to hold high office. The trend downhill will continue; he's not suddenly going to become fit to be PM, the blunders and U-turns will multiply, and the end of the Brexit transition is coming very soon. Even a really good government would be struggling with the current challenges, but in terms of pure administrative competence this is one of the worst, if not the worst, since WWII.

Not much to disagree with there

Boris is not the PM for this crisis and I hope his backbenchers take action

Trouble is that it's not just Johnson, and the purge of 2019 will make it difficult to come up with a working cabinet of clean hands.

So what happens next? I guess we have to watch Rishi; I wouldn't want him to go down with the ship, and I bet Rishi doesn't want to do that either...

geoffw

nada

contrarian

Stuartinromford said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Boris is proving as bad a PM as I and many others predicted over a year ago. The only surprise is that voters have been so tolerant of his manifest unsuitability to hold high office. The trend downhill will continue; he's not suddenly going to become fit to be PM, the blunders and U-turns will multiply, and the end of the Brexit transition is coming very soon. Even a really good government would be struggling with the current challenges, but in terms of pure administrative competence this is one of the worst, if not the worst, since WWII.

Not much to disagree with there

Boris is not the PM for this crisis and I hope his backbenchers take action

Trouble is that it's not just Johnson, and the purge of 2019 will make it difficult to come up with a working cabinet of clean hands.

So what happens next? I guess we have to watch Rishi; I wouldn't want him to go down with the ship, and I bet Rishi doesn't want to do that either...

If Sunak does not want to go down with Johnson maybe he should resign now.

Things are going to get awful for the economy pretty quickly from here.

Stocky

Pagan2 said:

Stocky said:

Third, and FPT: I wholeheartedly agree - and have been banging on about this for a while - hospital admissions is the metric to look at. Number of deaths and number of infections are problematic measures.

On mutation - I`m no expert but I don`t think this is how natural selection works. Firstly, mutations come from errors in gene replication in one organism (not en masse) and, secondly, why would a mutation be favoured by natural selection when it makes it less successful in its environment?

Any biologists around?

Mutation is probably the wrong word for non viral organisms as there is much evidence the mingling of the dna from two parents plays a far more pivotal role in changes.

However for viruses which reproduce by turning living cells into virus factories yes it is replication that is the issue. However I think maybe you are confusing what makes a virus successful. The most successful virus would be one its host never realises it has and that spreads easily. It won't kill anyone or even cause comment it will just lurk around doing its thing. The more a virus does damage the less sucessful it will be

I understand the last part of your post. I understand that a virus doesn`t want to kill its host.

The bit I don`t get is that a bunch of viruses don`t coincidentally mutate at the same time and in the same direction together. That would be some coincidence!

Fidelity errors , i.e. errors in replication - the drivers of natural selection - come from individual organisms, whose offspring retains the environmental advantage and, so, have advantage in the gene pool.

I guess viruses are different, but I don`t get it.

MikeSmithson

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1296138200025632768

Beibheirli_C

Stocky said:

Management consultants eh. I`ve asked a few, over the years, what they do exactly. The answer is the same: word salad until one`s eyes glaze over. I`m left with the impression that they exist to bail senior managers out from having to make difficult decisions for an absurdly large fee. Hired bad boys if you like.

I liked Gerald Weinberg's IT consulting premise - whatever they tell you the problem is, it is ALWAYS a people problem. The technology is usually capable enough.

His second premise was that they already know the answer, but nobody inside the organisation has the nerve to voice it. Far better to say "I have engaged a consultant to deal with this problem". If the answer is unpopular the consultant can be dispensed with at no risk.

stodge

moonshine said:

I don't think anyone has said that it's nothing or that it's completely gone away or that there aren't many people for whom it's changed (or ended) their lives in a terribly sad way.

It's that when looked at as a whole, the cure is now worse than the ailment.

Doubling in mental health problems? Pah, wimps. Kid's education? Stop being so lazy and watch youtube, schools are an unnecessary luxury. Undiagnosed cancers and hypertension? Not my problem (at least so I think). Untreated chronic conditions permanently affecting the rest of life? Who cares, medicine is all about acute infections diseases. Businesses failing? Stop being such a money grabbing capitalist and anyway what are you talking about, I have a mortgage holiday/triple lock pension/furlough pay/BBL/all time high SIPP etc...

Some people seem happy that we sacrifice everything at the altar of Covid and it's frankly a bit weird.

Of course, there are issues which need to be resolved but I would always start from the premise the public health is more important than the economic health and I realise that probably puts me in a self-satisfied majority.

That said, I'd much prefer a Government which instead of trying somehow to turn the clock back to December 13th 2019 and resurrect that post-election pre-Christmas euphoria, recognised the world has changed and moved to embrace and support that change.

Experiences and perceptions vary - I sense from my brother the local Health Service where he is has returned to non-Covid activity (they don't want him anywhere near a hospital). Is there a backlog? Certainly but work has begun to clear that and I can only confirm mental health has been the biggest loser of this and on that I do share your concern.

The world changes - it always has - and businesses have always had to be adept and adapt to those changes. Capitalism is brutal - those who don't or can't adapt perish. It has always been the way whether it be Woolworth's, Comet or BHS. No one says it's fair but adversity creates opportunity - the home delivery services have prospered and have taken on thousands of extra staff.

Many may be living on borrowed time (so to speak) though the percentages being thrown around by others paint a contrasting picture of returning activity in some areas and much slower growth in others.

Gary_Burton

https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1296062801329508353

https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1296062802810068994

seat projection

SNP 66 (+3)
Con 28 (-3)
Lab 19 (-5)
Grn 11 (+5)
LD 5 (-)


In reality I doubt the SNP would get a majority on these figures as I'm not convinced they'll gain Ayr from the Tories or Edinburgh Southern, East Lothian or even Dumbarton from Labour.

Greens usually slightly underperform as well.

Pagan2

Stocky said:

Pagan2 said:

Stocky said:

Third, and FPT: I wholeheartedly agree - and have been banging on about this for a while - hospital admissions is the metric to look at. Number of deaths and number of infections are problematic measures.

On mutation - I`m no expert but I don`t think this is how natural selection works. Firstly, mutations come from errors in gene replication in one organism (not en masse) and, secondly, why would a mutation be favoured by natural selection when it makes it less successful in its environment?

Any biologists around?

Mutation is probably the wrong word for non viral organisms as there is much evidence the mingling of the dna from two parents plays a far more pivotal role in changes.

However for viruses which reproduce by turning living cells into virus factories yes it is replication that is the issue. However I think maybe you are confusing what makes a virus successful. The most successful virus would be one its host never realises it has and that spreads easily. It won't kill anyone or even cause comment it will just lurk around doing its thing. The more a virus does damage the less sucessful it will be

I understand the last part of your post. I understand that a virus doesn`t want to kill its host.

The bit I don`t get is that a bunch of viruses don`t coincidentally mutate at the same time and in the same direction together. That would be some coincidence!

Fidelity errors , i.e. errors in replication - the drivers of natural selection - come from individual organisms, whose offspring retains the environmental advantage and, so, have advantage in the gene pool.

I guess viruses are different, but I don`t get it.

No correct they dont all mutate in the same direction. At anyone time there will be 40 or 50 different mutations out there. Those less successful than the original will tend to die out as the original will beat them to turning a cell into a virus factory. Those equally succesful will survive and produce new mutations eventually. Those more successful will thrive and may end up edging out prior strains when competing for resources.....Surviving mutations will continue to mutate along different lines which is when you will get speciation

Big_G_NorthWales

contrarian said:

Stuartinromford said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Boris is proving as bad a PM as I and many others predicted over a year ago. The only surprise is that voters have been so tolerant of his manifest unsuitability to hold high office. The trend downhill will continue; he's not suddenly going to become fit to be PM, the blunders and U-turns will multiply, and the end of the Brexit transition is coming very soon. Even a really good government would be struggling with the current challenges, but in terms of pure administrative competence this is one of the worst, if not the worst, since WWII.

Not much to disagree with there

Boris is not the PM for this crisis and I hope his backbenchers take action

Trouble is that it's not just Johnson, and the purge of 2019 will make it difficult to come up with a working cabinet of clean hands.

So what happens next? I guess we have to watch Rishi; I wouldn't want him to go down with the ship, and I bet Rishi doesn't want to do that either...

If Sunak does not want to go down with Johnson maybe he should resign now.

Things are going to get awful for the economy pretty quickly from here.

He is the best bet for the economy across the parties

HYUFD

Putting the new Yougov figures into Electoral Calculus gives:

Tories 313
Labour 250
SNP 58
LDs 6
Plaid 4
Greens 1

So Starmer likely PM with SNP and LD and PC and SDLP and Alliance support assuming SF do not take their seats.


https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&scotshow=Y&CON=40&LAB=38&LIB=6&Brexit=4&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=19&SCOTLAB=17&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTBrexit=1&SCOTGreen=2&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=54&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019.

Interesting too the Brexit Party up to 4%, double their 2019 vote, with 6% of 2019 Tories switching to the Brexit Party, the same number that have switched to Labour.

CorrectHorseBattery

Poll parity is coming!

CorrectHorseBattery

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1296121613641973761

MaxPB

It really does look like a second wave has arrived in Spain. 131 deaths from their measure of 7 days (we do 28 days). This could get very messy again very quickly and the UK government needs to be ready to tighten restrictions with flight bans and monitored quarantine at hotels for returning travellers.

Stuartinromford

contrarian said:

Stuartinromford said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Boris is proving as bad a PM as I and many others predicted over a year ago. The only surprise is that voters have been so tolerant of his manifest unsuitability to hold high office. The trend downhill will continue; he's not suddenly going to become fit to be PM, the blunders and U-turns will multiply, and the end of the Brexit transition is coming very soon. Even a really good government would be struggling with the current challenges, but in terms of pure administrative competence this is one of the worst, if not the worst, since WWII.

Not much to disagree with there

Boris is not the PM for this crisis and I hope his backbenchers take action

Trouble is that it's not just Johnson, and the purge of 2019 will make it difficult to come up with a working cabinet of clean hands.

So what happens next? I guess we have to watch Rishi; I wouldn't want him to go down with the ship, and I bet Rishi doesn't want to do that either...

If Sunak does not want to go down with Johnson maybe he should resign now.

Things are going to get awful for the economy pretty quickly from here.

I doubt we agree on much, but yes. Johnson's USP has always been popularity; "say what you like, he reaches the parts other Conservatives cannot reach."

His power has been inevitability; "I'm going to be Prime Minister, so if you agree to be my lackey, I can push you up the greasy pole. Otherwise, I will destroy you."

What's the point of an unpopular populist? Or a powerless powermonger?

CorrectHorseBattery

YouGov likely sees Starmer as PM

Big_G_NorthWales

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Poll parity is coming!

Why such low ambition, labour lead is possible to be fair

nichomar

Big_G_NorthWales said:

contrarian said:

Stuartinromford said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Boris is proving as bad a PM as I and many others predicted over a year ago. The only surprise is that voters have been so tolerant of his manifest unsuitability to hold high office. The trend downhill will continue; he's not suddenly going to become fit to be PM, the blunders and U-turns will multiply, and the end of the Brexit transition is coming very soon. Even a really good government would be struggling with the current challenges, but in terms of pure administrative competence this is one of the worst, if not the worst, since WWII.

Not much to disagree with there

Boris is not the PM for this crisis and I hope his backbenchers take action

Trouble is that it's not just Johnson, and the purge of 2019 will make it difficult to come up with a working cabinet of clean hands.

So what happens next? I guess we have to watch Rishi; I wouldn't want him to go down with the ship, and I bet Rishi doesn't want to do that either...

If Sunak does not want to go down with Johnson maybe he should resign now.

Things are going to get awful for the economy pretty quickly from here.

He is the best bet for the economy across the parties

How do we know he’s just given money away, no idea what the alternatives are capable of. Judge in 12 months time when there is real evidence.

CorrectHorseBattery

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Poll parity is coming!

Why such low ambition, labour lead is possible to be fair

First parity, then lead

justin124

If Labour is able to establish a lead in coming months, it might affect the dynamics in Scotland a bit. The serious prospect of ousting Johnson and the Tories - albeit 3 years later - might be sufficient to pull back defectors to the SNP next May.

Casino_Royale

@Malmesbury FPT - very good posts, and spot on.

Couldn't agree more and I recognise your experience in IT consultancy with mine in the management of major projects.

Big_G_NorthWales

CorrectHorseBattery said:

YouGov likely sees Starmer as PM

I know this may be a betrayal but right now he would be a huge improvement on Boris

WhisperingOracle

MaxPB said:

It really does look like a second wave has arrived in Spain. 131 deaths from their measure of 7 days (we do 28 days). This could get very messy again very quickly and the UK government needs to be ready to tighten restrictions with flight bans and monitored quarantine at hotels for returning travellers.

The deaths, grim as it may be, are the critical thing to watch. So far these have lagged way, way behind the Spring levels in virtually all the new outbreaks. Let's hope that continues.

Big_G_NorthWales

nichomar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

contrarian said:

Stuartinromford said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Boris is proving as bad a PM as I and many others predicted over a year ago. The only surprise is that voters have been so tolerant of his manifest unsuitability to hold high office. The trend downhill will continue; he's not suddenly going to become fit to be PM, the blunders and U-turns will multiply, and the end of the Brexit transition is coming very soon. Even a really good government would be struggling with the current challenges, but in terms of pure administrative competence this is one of the worst, if not the worst, since WWII.

Not much to disagree with there

Boris is not the PM for this crisis and I hope his backbenchers take action

Trouble is that it's not just Johnson, and the purge of 2019 will make it difficult to come up with a working cabinet of clean hands.

So what happens next? I guess we have to watch Rishi; I wouldn't want him to go down with the ship, and I bet Rishi doesn't want to do that either...

If Sunak does not want to go down with Johnson maybe he should resign now.

Things are going to get awful for the economy pretty quickly from here.

He is the best bet for the economy across the parties

How do we know he’s just given money away, no idea what the alternatives are capable of. Judge in 12 months time when there is real evidence.

At this moment in time he is the best candidate for the job

CorrectHorseBattery

I can't see anything we are doing that means we aren't susceptible to a second wave. I worry we have the same attitude we had to Italy before, "it will never happen here"

Nigelb

Stocky said:

Pagan2 said:

Stocky said:

Third, and FPT: I wholeheartedly agree - and have been banging on about this for a while - hospital admissions is the metric to look at. Number of deaths and number of infections are problematic measures.

On mutation - I`m no expert but I don`t think this is how natural selection works. Firstly, mutations come from errors in gene replication in one organism (not en masse) and, secondly, why would a mutation be favoured by natural selection when it makes it less successful in its environment?

Any biologists around?

Mutation is probably the wrong word for non viral organisms as there is much evidence the mingling of the dna from two parents plays a far more pivotal role in changes.

However for viruses which reproduce by turning living cells into virus factories yes it is replication that is the issue. However I think maybe you are confusing what makes a virus successful. The most successful virus would be one its host never realises it has and that spreads easily. It won't kill anyone or even cause comment it will just lurk around doing its thing. The more a virus does damage the less sucessful it will be

I understand the last part of your post. I understand that a virus doesn`t want to kill its host.

The bit I don`t get is that a bunch of viruses don`t coincidentally mutate at the same time and in the same direction together. That would be some coincidence!

Fidelity errors , i.e. errors in replication - the drivers of natural selection - come from individual organisms, whose offspring retains the environmental advantage and, so, have advantage in the gene pool.

I guess viruses are different, but I don`t get it.

Viral change in RNA viruses is driven by viral recombination, I think:
https://www.nature.com/articles/nrmicro2614

In the UK, we probably sequence the coronavirus more than anywhere else, and I don't think (other than the proliferation of the now dominant D614G strain) that any significant evolutionary change has been reported.

MaxPB

New cases in Spain were over 7000 on the 14th, this is a disaster. I wouldn't be surprised if three was a new national lockdown to combat this as soon as tourists have gone home in 10 or so days.

Black_Rook

Foxy said:

felix said:

NerysHughes said:

In a couple of weeks less than 0.25% of hospital beds will be taken up by covid positive patients. To continue living the restricted life we are when Covid is almost a medical irrelevance to the NHS is plain daft.

FPT - Since you like to ignore reality I'll tell you again:

Well - if it is similar to the Spanish pattern many of the new cases were in the younger age groups doing the things they do. However, a few weeks on and now olde relatives and even old people's homes are again being infected and both the hospital admissions and deaths are rising too. The Spanish health minister reckong the majority of outbrekas are family related. I think the death rate will be lower this time round as there have been some treatment advances. The idea that we don't have to worry is I think mistaken.

Well, the supposed Leicester hotspot started 6 weeks ago, in overcrowded multigenerational households, yet the local hospitalisations are down six fold. They should be appearing by now. It is genuinely hard to explain.

While obviously hospitalisations and deaths are a trailing indicator, the KCL Covid app suggests population symptoms are down too. We are clearly missing some of the picture.

Personally, I would keep music and nightclubs closed, discourage international travel and for the remainder of activities to resume with careful hygiene, masks and social distancing, and keep a watchful eye on the figures.

My guess is that this is down to a combination of high levels of public take-up of masks, compliance with regulations amongst the overwhelming majority of businesses, exceptionally high levels of working from home relative to many other European countries, and a lot of voluntary self-segregation by vulnerable groups.

Having parents who are old enough to be counted as vulnerable, I know at least anecdotally how people who may be reasonably healthy for their age and not prone to hysteria are nonetheless taking this disease very seriously indeed. My Dad in particular is very cautious; he could be persuaded to go to an outdoor dining venue with us about three weeks ago but other than that I think he's still living pretty much as if it were April, other than the fact that he sees one close friend regularly (who's effectively the other half of his support bubble, I suppose) and his brother and sister from time to time.

In terms of what we can get away with opening, at this stage I think we'd probably agree quite closely. I think that nightclubs, rock concerts, choirs and packed football stadiums are off limits for the duration of this crisis, but just about everything else should be doable with caution. Following the announcement a few weeks back of the arts rescue package, I wonder whether or not the Government has given consideration to telling the theatres to re-open, operate at a loss and top up their balance sheets with grants?

EDIT: and yes, international travel is also a terrible idea under current circumstances - you risk getting caught out big time both by our Government's ever-changing restrictions and by those of the countries that you're visiting. I dare say that the Foreign Office advice against non-essential travel was probably relaxed to try to prop up travel agencies and tour operators, but frankly they'd have been better off lobbing money at them instead.

CorrectHorseBattery

On April 4, close to the pandemic’s peak in the UK, the Conservatives had a 24-point lead over Labour. Today’s poll follows a YouGov survey that suggests the governing party is now level-pegging with Labour on the question of which is most competent.

Hard to argue that Keir is bloody good.

Foxy

Pagan2 said:

FPT

Malmesbury said:

Casino_Royale said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Excellent piece. I particularly liked....:

'McKinsey (the consultants invariably brought in by those CEOs and others too unimaginative to think for themselves, too scared to make their own decisions or just looking for someone else to blame).'

This was exactly my experience with them. They would come to you room, spend a lot of time finding out what you did and how you did it. They would type it up and report this to the CEO, leaving you wondering why the CEO didn't just ask you himself. The result of all this earnest research was the recommendation that the firm (which was profitable and successful) should carry on pretty much as before.

Naturally they were paid a huge sum for this timeless advice.

There is a reason for that which is (a) objectivity and (b) independence.

On the first, most staff will tell the CEO what they want to hear or what they think will make themselves look good in front of the CEO or advance their own agendas to the CEO. CEO doesn't know which to believe. He or she also doesn't know who's stayed quiet about what's really going on: everything gets filtered by chinese whispers & agendas through the chain of command.

On the second, the name of a McKinsey or Big4 firm carries weight as an independent assessor/auditor thus lending credibility to the findings.

That's why so many hire management consultants: to tell them the state of play in their own company, benchmark it against others in the industry (they'll have done the same elsewhere) and use their brand-name as credibility for the findings so they can take action.

That's no excuse for offering simple or poor advice, or subject to confirmation bias, and that's what differentiates good consultants from bad ones.

I did IT Consultancy for a while. A couple interesting things -

- Coming in from outside, we would often have to build documentation for a rats nest of systems. Often I would be told that my diagram (entirely created so I could understand it) was immensely valuable to the client. They often had no idea what was connecting to what.....

- Large companies/organisations are often a jumble of fiefdoms. They will tell you what protects their little patch. Quite often we had to get direct access to systems and work round the incumbent teams to find out what the hell was going on.

- Defiance. You might think that the CEO orders something to happen and... well stuff happens. In fact, when it effects their fiefdoms (see above), the incumbents will often defend their patch to the point of insubordination. And beyond.

All of the above is part of the reason that change is very very hard in large organisations. To the point where, it is necessary to burn the whole thing down and start again, every so often.

The answer still should never be mcKinseys. For example I worked at ici as a chemist. They came in asked us all what we did and how long it took. Mostly people worked a few hours over their time every week because some things just can't fit into a 7.5 hour day, eg you have something that requires a 10 hour run to complete.

McKinseys then too how long we spent doing each task and used to formula of putative hours worked/ divided by actual hours worked and used this to calculate how long things took so for example a 10 hour reaction apparently would now only take 8 hours.

They then used these revised times to say you have overmanning and a load of people got made redundant. McKinseys wandered off into the sunset with a pocket full of cash....senior managers were happy they were now a lean efficient company.....that division of ICI ended up going down the pan about a year later as nothing was ever getting done as we now had to few staff to do everything and people were so pissed off at the extra work they were expected to do to pick up the slack they were saying "sod it end of my contracted hours, want me to stay finish this experiment then pay me overtime"

With McKinseys you certainly get all the stupid you can afford

Over the last 2 decades we have had a regular flow of management consultants through our department every couple of years. I am always polite and helpful to them, but I cannot recall any that brought any real improvement, and some were as destructive as you mention. Others simply reversed the changes that the last lot suggested.

Of course, over that time we have had many developments and efficiencies, but those were universally internally developed and implemented. There is a lot more buy in from staff when change occurs this way.

contrarian

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

YouGov likely sees Starmer as PM

I know this may be a betrayal but right now he would be a huge improvement on Boris

Seriously, what would he have done differently? His criticisms are at the margins, really.

RobD

CorrectHorseBattery said:

On April 4, close to the pandemic’s peak in the UK, the Conservatives had a 24-point lead over Labour. Today’s poll follows a YouGov survey that suggests the governing party is now level-pegging with Labour on the question of which is most competent.

Hard to argue that Keir is bloody good.

It's got more to do with the Government's approval more than anything, I think.

Carnyx

justin124 said:

If Labour is able to establish a lead in coming months, it might affect the dynamics in Scotland a bit. The serious prospect of ousting Johnson and the Tories - albeit 3 years later - might be sufficient to pull back defectors to the SNP next May.

Er, what's the point of voting Labour in Scotland to keep the Tories out, when you could just vote SNP? Labour often cooperate with the Tories in local gmt - as in Aberdeen, which is a de facto Labour-Tory coalition - and also in indyref 1. And their (then) leading figures have in the recent past told people to vote Tory to keep the SNP out.

You know where you are with the Tories and the SNP. That's, I think, Labour's problem.

Big_G_NorthWales

CorrectHorseBattery said:

On April 4, close to the pandemic’s peak in the UK, the Conservatives had a 24-point lead over Labour. Today’s poll follows a YouGov survey that suggests the governing party is now level-pegging with Labour on the question of which is most competent.

Hard to argue that Keir is bloody good.

Or Boris has been found out

Nigelb

Foxy said:

felix said:

NerysHughes said:

In a couple of weeks less than 0.25% of hospital beds will be taken up by covid positive patients. To continue living the restricted life we are when Covid is almost a medical irrelevance to the NHS is plain daft.

FPT - Since you like to ignore reality I'll tell you again:

Well - if it is similar to the Spanish pattern many of the new cases were in the younger age groups doing the things they do. However, a few weeks on and now olde relatives and even old people's homes are again being infected and both the hospital admissions and deaths are rising too. The Spanish health minister reckong the majority of outbrekas are family related. I think the death rate will be lower this time round as there have been some treatment advances. The idea that we don't have to worry is I think mistaken.

Well, the supposed Leicester hotspot started 6 weeks ago, in overcrowded multigenerational households, yet the local hospitalisations are down six fold. They should be appearing by now. It is genuinely hard to explain.

While obviously hospitalisations and deaths are a trailing indicator, the KCL Covid app suggests population symptoms are down too. We are clearly missing some of the picture.

Personally, I would keep music and nightclubs closed, discourage international travel and for the remainder of activities to resume with careful hygiene, masks and social distancing, and keep a watchful eye on the figures.

Sounds sensible.
And if the choice is between reopening schools or night-clubs, it's a pretty obvious one.

HYUFD

CorrectHorseBattery said:

On April 4, close to the pandemic’s peak in the UK, the Conservatives had a 24-point lead over Labour. Today’s poll follows a YouGov survey that suggests the governing party is now level-pegging with Labour on the question of which is most competent.

Hard to argue that Keir is bloody good.

On this poll Starmer is only PM with SNP support, if Scotland goes the Tories still have a comfortable majority

CorrectHorseBattery

RobD said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

On April 4, close to the pandemic’s peak in the UK, the Conservatives had a 24-point lead over Labour. Today’s poll follows a YouGov survey that suggests the governing party is now level-pegging with Labour on the question of which is most competent.

Hard to argue that Keir is bloody good.

It's got more to do with the Government's approval more than anything, I think.

We would not be 2 points behind if Corbyn or RLB were there

Big_G_NorthWales

contrarian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

YouGov likely sees Starmer as PM

I know this may be a betrayal but right now he would be a huge improvement on Boris

Seriously, what would he have done differently? His criticisms are at the margins, really.

He is not hands on, he does not sack people he should, and he has gone into hiding at just the moment he should be fighting for HMG

malcolmg

MaxPB said:

FPT

@DavidL your fears may be coming true.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/08/19/scotland-struggles-rebound-despite-smaller-recession/

GDP grew by 5.7pc in June, falling short of the 8.7pc surge recorded nationally.

It came after the economy shrank by 5.8pc in March and 19.2pc in April - both extremely large drops, but less severe than the UK-wide collapse.

But despite this better starting position, growth has been slower since April.

As a result, the Scottish economy was still 17.6pc smaller in June than it was in February, meaning it has effectively been overtaken by the rest of the country. The British economy overall is now 17.2pc smaller than it was before the pandemic struck.

ooooooooooh panic , 0.4% on one months data , end of the world is nigh.

malcolmg

FPT
justin124 said:

» show previous quotes
Not entirely. The result of a Holyrood election which sees turnout of circa 50% should not override a Referendum in respect of which 85% voted. The lower turnout for Holyrood v Westminster too would tend to suggest that voters in Scotland see it as a lower or secondary tier of authority.

What a knobhead

Beibheirli_C

Stocky said:

No correct they dont all mutate in the same direction. At anyone time there will be 40 or 50 different mutations out there. Those less successful than the original will tend to die out as the original will beat them to turning a cell into a virus factory. Those equally succesful will survive and produce new mutations eventually. Those more successful will thrive and may end up edging out prior strains when competing for resources.....Surviving mutations will continue to mutate along different lines which is when you will get speciation

Viruses replicating in humans interact with the same environment so they have to work in similar ways to be successful. The viruses do not communicate and are not intelligent, but the successful strains are those that work with a human cell and that places limitations on them.

If one variation of this virus developed a feature that (say) stopped the heart of an infected person within an hour of infection then that virus would fail to spread. It would be a highly unsuccessful mutation.

If a version of Covid arises that is non-lethal to humans then it is likely to become the dominant strain because there would be no reason to stop its spread.

And like mathematics, there are an infinite number of ways to be wrong but only one way to be right - so a mutation is more likely to be unworkable than beneficial and thus removed from the virus gene pool.

justin124

It perhaps needs to be remembered that the effect of the 2015 electoral earthquake in Scotland was to knock 2% off Labour's GB vote share. A 2% Tory lead today,therefore, is the equivalent of level pegging pre-2015 - at least with regard to England & Wales.

malcolmg

justin124 said:

If Labour is able to establish a lead in coming months, it might affect the dynamics in Scotland a bit. The serious prospect of ousting Johnson and the Tories - albeit 3 years later - might be sufficient to pull back defectors to the SNP next May.

Big_G_NorthWales

malcolmg said:

MaxPB said:

FPT

@DavidL your fears may be coming true.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/08/19/scotland-struggles-rebound-despite-smaller-recession/

GDP grew by 5.7pc in June, falling short of the 8.7pc surge recorded nationally.

It came after the economy shrank by 5.8pc in March and 19.2pc in April - both extremely large drops, but less severe than the UK-wide collapse.

But despite this better starting position, growth has been slower since April.

As a result, the Scottish economy was still 17.6pc smaller in June than it was in February, meaning it has effectively been overtaken by the rest of the country. The British economy overall is now 17.2pc smaller than it was before the pandemic struck.

ooooooooooh panic , 0.4% on one months data , end of the world is nigh.

The way Sturgeon has closed down Scotland's economy is going to become fairly stark over the next few months

All the other nations have opened their economies much more and here in North Wales tourism is as good as it is normally

CorrectHorseBattery

https://twitter.com/henrymance/status/1296129818589896704

Oof Goodwin drama!

Big_G_NorthWales

malcolmg said:

justin124 said:

If Labour is able to establish a lead in coming months, it might affect the dynamics in Scotland a bit. The serious prospect of ousting Johnson and the Tories - albeit 3 years later - might be sufficient to pull back defectors to the SNP next May.

I share this with you Malc

We do not agree on much but Justin does not have clue

justin124

malcolmg said:

FPT
justin124 said:

» show previous quotes
Not entirely. The result of a Holyrood election which sees turnout of circa 50% should not override a Referendum in respect of which 85% voted. The lower turnout for Holyrood v Westminster too would tend to suggest that voters in Scotland see it as a lower or secondary tier of authority.

What a knobhead

I will not attempt to match the cerebral content of that response. Doubtless there are some people who would be perfectly happy to accept the result of a Holyrood election as a clear mandate even on a 30% turnout.

WhisperingOracle

contrarian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

YouGov likely sees Starmer as PM

I know this may be a betrayal but right now he would be a huge improvement on Boris

Seriously, what would he have done differently? His criticisms are at the margins, really.

The danger for the government so far is process, not policy. It's beginning to give the impression it can't plan for the long-term in any number of emergency, unchosen areas. In the autumn this issue of ad hoc and emergency planning is going to collide with its actively chosen, distinct policy positions on Brexit, which is where the problems may really start.

Stocky

Beibheirli_C said:

Stocky said:

No correct they dont all mutate in the same direction. At anyone time there will be 40 or 50 different mutations out there. Those less successful than the original will tend to die out as the original will beat them to turning a cell into a virus factory. Those equally succesful will survive and produce new mutations eventually. Those more successful will thrive and may end up edging out prior strains when competing for resources.....Surviving mutations will continue to mutate along different lines which is when you will get speciation

Viruses replicating in humans interact with the same environment so they have to work in similar ways to be successful. The viruses do not communicate and are not intelligent, but the successful strains are those that work with a human cell and that places limitations on them.

If one variation of this virus developed a feature that (say) stopped the heart of an infected person within an hour of infection then that virus would fail to spread. It would be a highly unsuccessful mutation.

If a version of Covid arises that is non-lethal to humans then it is likely to become the dominant strain because there would be no reason to stop its spread.

And like mathematics, there are an infinite number of ways to be wrong but only one way to be right - so a mutation is more likely to be unworkable than beneficial and thus removed from the virus gene pool.

"If a version of Covid arises that is non-lethal to humans then it is likely to become the dominant strain because there would be no reason to stop its spread."

Doesn`t it logically follow from this that, given time, viruses always become less serious to the host? It`s just a case of waiting for the right mutation.

Big_G_NorthWales

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/henrymance/status/1296129818589896704

Oof Goodwin drama!

You cannot offer a vision while hiding

justin124

Big_G_NorthWales said:

malcolmg said:

justin124 said:

If Labour is able to establish a lead in coming months, it might affect the dynamics in Scotland a bit. The serious prospect of ousting Johnson and the Tories - albeit 3 years later - might be sufficient to pull back defectors to the SNP next May.

I share this with you Malc

We do not agree on much but Justin does not have clue

Wait and see!

Casino_Royale

FPT - the quality of the civil service is no better or worse than it was 3-4 years ago. What you're seeing is the consequences of appalling political leadership and dud ministers (and Prime Ministers) who are not on top of their briefs.

Boris criticises David Cameron as a "girly swot". There's a reason he was. And that's because to be an effective Prime Minister is very hard work.

If you can't be arsed, and there's a vacuum, like in any organisation without leadership, don't be surprised when everything around you starts to fuck up.

MaxPB

malcolmg said:

MaxPB said:

FPT

@DavidL your fears may be coming true.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/08/19/scotland-struggles-rebound-despite-smaller-recession/

GDP grew by 5.7pc in June, falling short of the 8.7pc surge recorded nationally.

It came after the economy shrank by 5.8pc in March and 19.2pc in April - both extremely large drops, but less severe than the UK-wide collapse.

But despite this better starting position, growth has been slower since April.

As a result, the Scottish economy was still 17.6pc smaller in June than it was in February, meaning it has effectively been overtaken by the rest of the country. The British economy overall is now 17.2pc smaller than it was before the pandemic struck.

ooooooooooh panic , 0.4% on one months data , end of the world is nigh.

It's 8.7% national growth in June vs 5.7% in Scotland for June. We know the national picture is about 8% for July if Scotland repeats with 6% the gap gets wider. Sturgeon is fucking up the Scottish economy, I also don't understand why, the pandemic is over in Scotland, it has been since the end of May.

Beibheirli_C

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/henrymance/status/1296129818589896704

Oof Goodwin drama!

Since you mention "Goodwin" can I yell "Hitler!"?

Oh no - that is Godwin, not Goodwin...

Anabobazina

IshmaelZ said:

First like Kier.

All these Oxbridge degrees and PBers still can’t bloody spell the given name of the Loto.

K


E


I


R




FFS

CarlottaVance

malcolmg said:

What a knobhead

You found a mirror then...

malcolmg

Big_G_NorthWales said:

malcolmg said:

MaxPB said:

FPT

@DavidL your fears may be coming true.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/08/19/scotland-struggles-rebound-despite-smaller-recession/

GDP grew by 5.7pc in June, falling short of the 8.7pc surge recorded nationally.

It came after the economy shrank by 5.8pc in March and 19.2pc in April - both extremely large drops, but less severe than the UK-wide collapse.

But despite this better starting position, growth has been slower since April.

As a result, the Scottish economy was still 17.6pc smaller in June than it was in February, meaning it has effectively been overtaken by the rest of the country. The British economy overall is now 17.2pc smaller than it was before the pandemic struck.

ooooooooooh panic , 0.4% on one months data , end of the world is nigh.

The way Sturgeon has closed down Scotland's economy is going to become fairly stark over the next few months

All the other nations have opened their economies much more and here in North Wales tourism is as good as it is normally

WE shall see, I hear Tory doom merchants bad mouthing Scotland on a daily basis on here and it is always proven to be just howling at the moon fantasy wishes.
SNP are very very popular and they are doing it deliberately. Even Bozo is up here in disguise searching for some magic to rub off on his hideous hide.

malcolmg

Big_G_NorthWales said:

malcolmg said:

justin124 said:

If Labour is able to establish a lead in coming months, it might affect the dynamics in Scotland a bit. The serious prospect of ousting Johnson and the Tories - albeit 3 years later - might be sufficient to pull back defectors to the SNP next May.

I share this with you Malc

We do not agree on much but Justin does not have clue

He is Labour's HYFUD

Stocky

MaxPB said:

malcolmg said:

MaxPB said:

FPT

@DavidL your fears may be coming true.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/08/19/scotland-struggles-rebound-despite-smaller-recession/

GDP grew by 5.7pc in June, falling short of the 8.7pc surge recorded nationally.

It came after the economy shrank by 5.8pc in March and 19.2pc in April - both extremely large drops, but less severe than the UK-wide collapse.

But despite this better starting position, growth has been slower since April.

As a result, the Scottish economy was still 17.6pc smaller in June than it was in February, meaning it has effectively been overtaken by the rest of the country. The British economy overall is now 17.2pc smaller than it was before the pandemic struck.

ooooooooooh panic , 0.4% on one months data , end of the world is nigh.

It's 8.7% national growth in June vs 5.7% in Scotland for June. We know the national picture is about 8% for July if Scotland repeats with 6% the gap gets wider. Sturgeon is fucking up the Scottish economy, I also don't understand why, the pandemic is over in Scotland, it has been since the end of May.

Why? It`s the mother of all virtue-signals. She`s fucked up exam credibility too - across the whole of the UK in the end.

Andy_JS

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I can't see anything we are doing that means we aren't susceptible to a second wave. I worry we have the same attitude we had to Italy before, "it will never happen here"

I don't think a second wave will happen, (except in a very minor way in a small number of locations).

malcolmg

justin124 said:

malcolmg said:

FPT
justin124 said:

» show previous quotes
Not entirely. The result of a Holyrood election which sees turnout of circa 50% should not override a Referendum in respect of which 85% voted. The lower turnout for Holyrood v Westminster too would tend to suggest that voters in Scotland see it as a lower or secondary tier of authority.

What a knobhead

I will not attempt to match the cerebral content of that response. Doubtless there are some people who would be perfectly happy to accept the result of a Holyrood election as a clear mandate even on a 30% turnout.

They do it at Westminster all the time and they don't have the rigged system that gives the losers a shedload of seats for losing big time.

contrarian

WhisperingOracle said:

contrarian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

YouGov likely sees Starmer as PM

I know this may be a betrayal but right now he would be a huge improvement on Boris

Seriously, what would he have done differently? His criticisms are at the margins, really.

The danger for the government so far is process, not policy. It's beginning to give the impression it can't plan for the long-term in any number of emergency, unchosen areas. In the autumn this issue of ad hoc and emergency planning is going to collide with its actively chosen, distinct policy positions on Brexit, which is where the problems may really start.

That's why the tories won;t get rid until next year, in my view. They want Johnson to wear the economic crisis, wear Brexit, then start anew.

Big decision coming up for Sunak though.

Stocky

Anabobazina said:

IshmaelZ said:

First like Kier.

All these Oxbridge degrees and PBers still can’t bloody spell the given name of the Loto.

K


E


I


R




FFS

"i before e except after c." So it`s Kier.

malcolmg

MaxPB said:

malcolmg said:

MaxPB said:

FPT

@DavidL your fears may be coming true.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/08/19/scotland-struggles-rebound-despite-smaller-recession/

GDP grew by 5.7pc in June, falling short of the 8.7pc surge recorded nationally.

It came after the economy shrank by 5.8pc in March and 19.2pc in April - both extremely large drops, but less severe than the UK-wide collapse.

But despite this better starting position, growth has been slower since April.

As a result, the Scottish economy was still 17.6pc smaller in June than it was in February, meaning it has effectively been overtaken by the rest of the country. The British economy overall is now 17.2pc smaller than it was before the pandemic struck.

ooooooooooh panic , 0.4% on one months data , end of the world is nigh.

It's 8.7% national growth in June vs 5.7% in Scotland for June. We know the national picture is about 8% for July if Scotland repeats with 6% the gap gets wider. Sturgeon is fucking up the Scottish economy, I also don't understand why, the pandemic is over in Scotland, it has been since the end of May.

If she stops then she has to start up indyref2 again so she is bricking it.

MaxPB

Anabobazina said:

IshmaelZ said:

First like Kier.

All these Oxbridge degrees and PBers still can’t bloody spell the given name of the Loto.

K


E


I


R




FFS

Tbf, I've previously misspelled it on purpose to troll you mate.

HYUFD

malcolmg said:

FPT
justin124 said:

» show previous quotes
Not entirely. The result of a Holyrood election which sees turnout of circa 50% should not override a Referendum in respect of which 85% voted. The lower turnout for Holyrood v Westminster too would tend to suggest that voters in Scotland see it as a lower or secondary tier of authority.

What a knobhead

So that is Justin added to the column for banning indyref2 regardless of the Holyrood result next year

Beibheirli_C

contrarian said:

WhisperingOracle said:

contrarian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

YouGov likely sees Starmer as PM

I know this may be a betrayal but right now he would be a huge improvement on Boris

Seriously, what would he have done differently? His criticisms are at the margins, really.

The danger for the government so far is process, not policy. It's beginning to give the impression it can't plan for the long-term in any number of emergency, unchosen areas. In the autumn this issue of ad hoc and emergency planning is going to collide with its actively chosen, distinct policy positions on Brexit, which is where the problems may really start.

That's why the tories won;t get rid until next year, in my view. They want Johnson to wear the economic crisis, wear Brexit, then start anew.

Big decision coming up for Sunak though.

They will get smeared with the incompetence brush just as much as Johnson will.

IshmaelZ

Anabobazina said:

IshmaelZ said:

First like Kier.

All these Oxbridge degrees and PBers still can’t bloody spell the given name of the Loto.

K


E


I


R




FFS

Kier Group was the first engineering company to introduce contiguous cylindrical reinforced concrete grain silos (Barking, 1929). I had hoped my reference was sufficiently obvious not to require footnoting.

Elephant traps, elephant traps...

malcolmg

CarlottaVance said:

malcolmg said:

What a knobhead

You found a mirror then...

What a wondrous sight I saw in it as well, handsome , debonair , dashing , and lots more wonderfulness, a sight to behold.

CorrectHorseBattery

https://twitter.com/carlrmorrell/status/1296144436661895168