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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON lead down to 2% while Starmer takes is now 4% ahead of Johnson as “Best PM” in latest YouGov
The trend in YouGov's "Best PM" ratings pic.twitter.com/tTBoZXCZwE
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On mutation - I`m no expert but I don`t think this is how natural selection works. Firstly, mutations come from errors in gene replication in one organism (not en masse) and, secondly, why would a mutation be favoured by natural selection when it makes it less successful in its environment?
Any biologists around?
@DavidL your fears may be coming true.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/08/19/scotland-struggles-rebound-despite-smaller-recession/
GDP grew by 5.7pc in June, falling short of the 8.7pc surge recorded nationally.
It came after the economy shrank by 5.8pc in March and 19.2pc in April - both extremely large drops, but less severe than the UK-wide collapse.
But despite this better starting position, growth has been slower since April.
As a result, the Scottish economy was still 17.6pc smaller in June than it was in February, meaning it has effectively been overtaken by the rest of the country. The British economy overall is now 17.2pc smaller than it was before the pandemic struck.
That's two behind the liberal democrats and the greens.
Here in North Wales economic activity has really picked up
The question is hw much of an advantage that is for a given bug. Also the level of competition between strains of the bug.
Boris is not the PM for this crisis and I hope his backbenchers take action
Well - if it is similar to the Spanish pattern many of the new cases were in the younger age groups doing the things they do. However, a few weeks on and now olde relatives and even old people's homes are again being infected and both the hospital admissions and deaths are rising too. The Spanish health minister reckong the majority of outbrekas are family related. I think the death rate will be lower this time round as there have been some treatment advances. The idea that we don't have to worry is I think mistaken.
The good news however is for the first time since March he has tested negative and he is therefore free to go as he pleases.
The cost of that is he has to wear a mask and gloves at all times when around people because his low white blood cell count and weakened immune system make him susceptible to re-infection.
That is the reality for those who try to assert Covid is nothing, that it has gone away, that we should get back to "normal", that we should ditch masks and social distancing. For some people, pending a vaccine, there will be no normal and of course for whose who have lost loved ones because of this virus, it will take a long time for them to return to "normal".
But as long as GDP is going up, people are going into pubs and enjoying cheap meals out, who cares? Everything's wonderful....
McKinseys then too how long we spent doing each task and used to formula of putative hours worked/ divided by actual hours worked and used this to calculate how long things took so for example a 10 hour reaction apparently would now only take 8 hours.
They then used these revised times to say you have overmanning and a load of people got made redundant. McKinseys wandered off into the sunset with a pocket full of cash....senior managers were happy they were now a lean efficient company.....that division of ICI ended up going down the pan about a year later as nothing was ever getting done as we now had to few staff to do everything and people were so pissed off at the extra work they were expected to do to pick up the slack they were saying "sod it end of my contracted hours, want me to stay finish this experiment then pay me overtime"
With McKinseys you certainly get all the stupid you can afford
However for viruses which reproduce by turning living cells into virus factories yes it is replication that is the issue. However I think maybe you are confusing what makes a virus successful. The most successful virus would be one its host never realises it has and that spreads easily. It won't kill anyone or even cause comment it will just lurk around doing its thing. The more a virus does damage the less sucessful it will be
While obviously hospitalisations and deaths are a trailing indicator, the KCL Covid app suggests population symptoms are down too. We are clearly missing some of the picture.
Personally, I would keep music and nightclubs closed, discourage international travel and for the remainder of activities to resume with careful hygiene, masks and social distancing, and keep a watchful eye on the figures.
It's that when looked at as a whole, the cure is now worse than the ailment.
Doubling in mental health problems? Pah, wimps. Kid's education? Stop being so lazy and watch youtube, schools are an unnecessary luxury. Undiagnosed cancers and hypertension? Not my problem (at least so I think). Untreated chronic conditions permanently affecting the rest of life? Who cares, medicine is all about acute infections diseases. Businesses failing? Stop being such a money grabbing capitalist and anyway what are you talking about, I have a mortgage holiday/triple lock pension/furlough pay/BBL/all time high SIPP etc...
Some people seem happy that we sacrifice everything at the altar of Covid and it's frankly a bit weird.
So what happens next? I guess we have to watch Rishi; I wouldn't want him to go down with the ship, and I bet Rishi doesn't want to do that either...
Things are going to get awful for the economy pretty quickly from here.
The bit I don`t get is that a bunch of viruses don`t coincidentally mutate at the same time and in the same direction together. That would be some coincidence!
Fidelity errors , i.e. errors in replication - the drivers of natural selection - come from individual organisms, whose offspring retains the environmental advantage and, so, have advantage in the gene pool.
I guess viruses are different, but I don`t get it.
His second premise was that they already know the answer, but nobody inside the organisation has the nerve to voice it. Far better to say "I have engaged a consultant to deal with this problem". If the answer is unpopular the consultant can be dispensed with at no risk.
That said, I'd much prefer a Government which instead of trying somehow to turn the clock back to December 13th 2019 and resurrect that post-election pre-Christmas euphoria, recognised the world has changed and moved to embrace and support that change.
Experiences and perceptions vary - I sense from my brother the local Health Service where he is has returned to non-Covid activity (they don't want him anywhere near a hospital). Is there a backlog? Certainly but work has begun to clear that and I can only confirm mental health has been the biggest loser of this and on that I do share your concern.
The world changes - it always has - and businesses have always had to be adept and adapt to those changes. Capitalism is brutal - those who don't or can't adapt perish. It has always been the way whether it be Woolworth's, Comet or BHS. No one says it's fair but adversity creates opportunity - the home delivery services have prospered and have taken on thousands of extra staff.
Many may be living on borrowed time (so to speak) though the percentages being thrown around by others paint a contrasting picture of returning activity in some areas and much slower growth in others.
https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1296062802810068994
seat projection
SNP 66 (+3)
Con 28 (-3)
Lab 19 (-5)
Grn 11 (+5)
LD 5 (-)
In reality I doubt the SNP would get a majority on these figures as I'm not convinced they'll gain Ayr from the Tories or Edinburgh Southern, East Lothian or even Dumbarton from Labour.
Greens usually slightly underperform as well.
Tories 313
Labour 250
SNP 58
LDs 6
Plaid 4
Greens 1
So Starmer likely PM with SNP and LD and PC and SDLP and Alliance support assuming SF do not take their seats.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&scotshow=Y&CON=40&LAB=38&LIB=6&Brexit=4&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=19&SCOTLAB=17&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTBrexit=1&SCOTGreen=2&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=54&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019.
Interesting too the Brexit Party up to 4%, double their 2019 vote, with 6% of 2019 Tories switching to the Brexit Party, the same number that have switched to Labour.
His power has been inevitability; "I'm going to be Prime Minister, so if you agree to be my lackey, I can push you up the greasy pole. Otherwise, I will destroy you."
What's the point of an unpopular populist? Or a powerless powermonger?
Couldn't agree more and I recognise your experience in IT consultancy with mine in the management of major projects.
https://www.nature.com/articles/nrmicro2614
In the UK, we probably sequence the coronavirus more than anywhere else, and I don't think (other than the proliferation of the now dominant D614G strain) that any significant evolutionary change has been reported.
Having parents who are old enough to be counted as vulnerable, I know at least anecdotally how people who may be reasonably healthy for their age and not prone to hysteria are nonetheless taking this disease very seriously indeed. My Dad in particular is very cautious; he could be persuaded to go to an outdoor dining venue with us about three weeks ago but other than that I think he's still living pretty much as if it were April, other than the fact that he sees one close friend regularly (who's effectively the other half of his support bubble, I suppose) and his brother and sister from time to time.
In terms of what we can get away with opening, at this stage I think we'd probably agree quite closely. I think that nightclubs, rock concerts, choirs and packed football stadiums are off limits for the duration of this crisis, but just about everything else should be doable with caution. Following the announcement a few weeks back of the arts rescue package, I wonder whether or not the Government has given consideration to telling the theatres to re-open, operate at a loss and top up their balance sheets with grants?
EDIT: and yes, international travel is also a terrible idea under current circumstances - you risk getting caught out big time both by our Government's ever-changing restrictions and by those of the countries that you're visiting. I dare say that the Foreign Office advice against non-essential travel was probably relaxed to try to prop up travel agencies and tour operators, but frankly they'd have been better off lobbing money at them instead.
Hard to argue that Keir is bloody good.
Of course, over that time we have had many developments and efficiencies, but those were universally internally developed and implemented. There is a lot more buy in from staff when change occurs this way.
You know where you are with the Tories and the SNP. That's, I think, Labour's problem.
And if the choice is between reopening schools or night-clubs, it's a pretty obvious one.
justin124 said:
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Not entirely. The result of a Holyrood election which sees turnout of circa 50% should not override a Referendum in respect of which 85% voted. The lower turnout for Holyrood v Westminster too would tend to suggest that voters in Scotland see it as a lower or secondary tier of authority.
What a knobhead
If one variation of this virus developed a feature that (say) stopped the heart of an infected person within an hour of infection then that virus would fail to spread. It would be a highly unsuccessful mutation.
If a version of Covid arises that is non-lethal to humans then it is likely to become the dominant strain because there would be no reason to stop its spread.
And like mathematics, there are an infinite number of ways to be wrong but only one way to be right - so a mutation is more likely to be unworkable than beneficial and thus removed from the virus gene pool.
All the other nations have opened their economies much more and here in North Wales tourism is as good as it is normally
Oof Goodwin drama!
We do not agree on much but Justin does not have clue
Doesn`t it logically follow from this that, given time, viruses always become less serious to the host? It`s just a case of waiting for the right mutation.
Boris criticises David Cameron as a "girly swot". There's a reason he was. And that's because to be an effective Prime Minister is very hard work.
If you can't be arsed, and there's a vacuum, like in any organisation without leadership, don't be surprised when everything around you starts to fuck up.
Oh no - that is Godwin, not Goodwin...
K
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FFS
SNP are very very popular and they are doing it deliberately. Even Bozo is up here in disguise searching for some magic to rub off on his hideous hide.
Big decision coming up for Sunak though.
Elephant traps, elephant traps...