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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s Corbynistas have yet to face the unpalatable fact that their man won GE2019 for Boris
A reminder of why LAB lost a fifth of its vote at GE2019 thus giving Johnson his whopping majority. pic.twitter.com/C040mLsHLK
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Problem is, young people don't bother to vote.
Labour will do better I think in 2024, because their leader is not Corbyn. I think at worst they could do as badly as Ed M.
At best, I think they have a C&S with the Lib Dems. I think realistically it's a small Tory majority or Labour as a minority with the SNP propping them up.
Recent polls really show how much of a mess Labour is in without a stronger Lib Dem vote. The Tories being as strong as they are, means they really need to fall below 40% for Labour to gain enough seats to govern even as a minority. Right now that does not look likely.
39% though for Starmer is decent progress from the 20 points behind they were a few months ago. Post 2017 in the polls I believe Corbyn had 45% at one point, so I wonder where those extra 6 points are now.
I find it stunning even in the North Brexit was so small compared to the leadership. I did think it would be more for Brexit.
https://twitter.com/KeejayOV2/status/1294742359507456010?s=20
Rather than face the fact that their belief system is a flawed, unwanted failure, it is easier to believe that election was stolen or that a bit more effort would have made the difference.
How many of us like the thought of admitting that a large part of our life was a complete and utter waste of time? Blaming someone / something else is always easier than facing the truth
My understanding was he was being helpful rather than malevolent and he said that he had emailed Robert to inform him about the weakness.
In particular, was it below-the-radar (or even open) denigration of Jeremy Corbyn by CCHQ? Was it changes in Corbyn himself? He seemed to age a lot in two years and there was even some speculation about a stroke iirc; he seemed grumpier; his glasses lenses meant he no longer "appeared" to be making eye contact with television audiences.
If the problem was Corbyn, and not Corbynism, is this what Labour centrists want to hear? The implication is that Labour needs all of Corbyn's policies but not the man himself.
And who took that idea and ran with it? Boris won on Labour's 2017 platform. Boris won by being a better Jeremy Corbyn than Corbyn himself. (Earlier I'd bet against Boris as leader because I believed Conservative MPs would reject a man susceptible to all the attacks they made against Corbyn.)
Corbyn also showed almost zero interest in any current political topic of the time and was apparently more interested in preparing for the socialist utopia to come instead of offering an alternative to the govt of the day.
Come 2019 and what was on offer to the electorate? Nothing that was going to make their lives better.
To become PM or President, you must win at your first attempt - or at least your first serious attempt.
At your first attempt you are new and fresh and there has been less time for people to take a disliking to you or to your record. Second time around none of these apply so your job is much harder.
Corbyn 1st attempt was 2017. Lost again at 2nd attempt.
Hilary's 1st attempt was 2008. Lost again at 2nd attempt.
The last people to clearly break the rule were Heath and Nixon.
I would exclude someone going for President and winning Vice-President in the same year as that sort of negates the loss and gives you a step up the ladder for better shot next time - eg Bush Snr.
https://twitter.com/NoContextPMQ/status/1294773413324763142
I think that the lawyers have a point. This is going to be another 2020 sh*tshow along with Covid, unemployment and Brexit
That's why Boris promised 20,000 new police officers, the same number Labour blamed the Tories for cutting; CCHQ did not simply pluck the number from thin air. To repeat, Boris won on Labour's 2017 platform.
Good for Cummings and bad for the Blob, or bad for Cummings as the leading advocate of blind faith in weirdos and their algorithms?
If two or more of these go badly, will Cummings become a human shield for Boris? Will the party force Boris to ditch Cummings as the price of his own survival, like Theresa May was forced to axe Nick and Fiona after the 2017 election disaster (which imo was more the responsibility of Lynton Crosby)?
There is also wide variation this year with the non-exam exam results this year.
... in French, for example, the share of pupils getting an A or above increased to nearly a half – 46.0% – from 36.4% last year. At grade C or above, there was an increase from 85.2% to 89.6%.
https://ffteducationdatalab.org.uk/2020/08/a-level-results-2020-the-main-trends-in-grades-and-entries/
Look at music! And PBers will note history did worse than physics; worse in terms of sudden jumps in performance, that is.
Was it painful ? I suffered post-op internal bleeding back in the 80s, and it remains the most painful thing I have ever experienced.
It does indicate that folk didn't like the Labour leadership, but not why. Mostly the novelty of Corbyn wore off as his toxicity and vacuity became clear.
Worth noting too that Corbyns best performance was a hundred seats worse than Blairs worst performance.
It doesn't take much forecasting ability to have spotted that would not go down well.
https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1294752129333096449
https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1294752517520125952
Ultimately the blame for this fiasco will devolve on the government. They panicked and called off exams too early, then put in place a flawed replacement process, lied about what would happen, rejected expert advice warning them it wouldn’t work, failed to properly investigate their concerns instead working with an algorithm that when fed real data gave the wrong results, panicked and u-turned willy nilly when it became obvious nobody was buying their lies, and now appear to not even understand their own processes.
Meanwhile, schools did what they were told. Hard to see how that can be held against them except insofar as the orders were dumb - but many of us were pointing that out at the time.
I do not see how the exam regulators survive this. Teachers have known for years they were useless, but now everyone else knows it too. Their job is too maintain public confidence in assessments,’ and nobody with a brain has confidence in them to do that now.
https://twitter.com/stevebenen/status/1294788800972029954?s=19
Betting PostF1: couple of tips. Due to lack of time today the follow-up may be delayed or not posted at all:
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2020/08/spain-pre-race-2020.html
Backed Leclerc to be best of the rest and Verstappen to win.
Iraq hangs like an albatross around the neck of Blair, and was in many ways part of the rise of Corbyn.
I note that Robert Trump died overnight, it is not known what from.
The recent BBC2 series on Iraq showed what a disaster the aftermath of the invasion turned out to be. Saddam was evil personified, and deserved removal but the way the Americans conducted things after 'victory' will be in the textbooks as an example of how not to do things!
OfQual have been nobbled because they contradicted a statement by the minister.
The government can't now fix this issue without sacking someone.
Which is nice...
Singapore has had +55k confirmed infections and only 27 deaths. There are only 83 still in hospital and all are said to be stable/improving with none in ICU. So Singapore’s CFR is < 0.1%.
So why is that? We can hypothesise all we like about low viral loads due to mask wearing or cultural factors. But almost nowhere in APAC has been severely affected by covid, despite it being the area with the highest preponderance of travellers from inland mainland China.
So why are studies like the linked one here ignoring that? Singapore really does have a very very low CFR. It’s possible it’s barely missed a case and we’ve missed millions in our estimates. And that everywhere has a CFR much less than 1%. But where are the cascades of deaths in the much larger Vietnam and Indonesia?
Seems to me the background immunity theory has strong merit (from a previous corona outbreak?) and it just depends on how widespread it was in a given population that determines the severity of a cv-19 outbreak.
If you don't understand that the Tories' entire raison d'etre is to halt social mobility, you're just not paying attention.
https://twitter.com/AbiWilks/status/1294804653608140800?s=19
*Purple as it is contested electoral territory, it is no longer a red wall and neither is it a blue one.
My hunch is that Williamson is annoyed that Ofqual`s announcement yesterday doesn`t honour his triple-lock pledge and he`s stuck his oar in.
Some of my Greek colleagues have told similar tales of unofficial actions by Coastguard cutters.
But it wasn’t just Corbyn himself. It was those he brought in to advise him, the ridiculously weak shadow cabinet, and the media outliers like Owen Jones, Aaron Bastani and Ash Sarkar all over the TV screens. If the Tories could have designed an opposition from scratch, it’s hard to think what they would have changed about Corbyn Labour.
So now the party has a massive rebuild to go through. The one thing to remember is this: in the last internal Momentum election, held in the spring, 8,500 people voted. Keir Starmer was elected by 276,000 Labour members.
The far-left is furious and it is very, very loud. But it is a rump.
Those are slightly more likely to be Tory than the university educated middle classes who pay for private schools.
So, yes, it is clearly a cockup.
But I am afraid that the problem lies not with your daughter’s school, who from what you have said have done all the right things, but with OFQUAL and the government.
They are amply and cruelly displaying how shite they are, and why they need removing and replacing.
Given how frequently we are told that England is a robber capitalist, racist hellhole, it does make it hard for one to imagine just how terrible France must be for anyone to want to leave it to come here. Perhaps we should all congratulate the Home Secretary for her courage in revealing this to us?
I don't see any long term damage to key Government people. Johnson was on holiday so he will claim it had nothing to do with him. Williamson can claim he inherited a flawed system. No one remembers it was Cummings and Gove who broke the system.
What is the age profile of their infected ? All I can find is a note on wikipedia that the “vast majority” of infections has been in migrant worker dorms,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Singapore
FWIW, they are almost certain to be under 60, and most considerably younger.
The IFR in China has been nowhere near as low.
What else could they have done?
I`m concerned about the decision Scotland has made, but seems to me that the rest of the UK has no option but to follow it.
It irritates me, I must admit, that the clever kids who didn`t try in their mocks because they were lazy and complacent could get away with this and come out with top grades just because their teachers think that`s they would have got top grades if they sat the exam because they are clever.
This has got to lead to fundamental reform if anyone is to have confidence in the exam systems.
The only problem is nobody in government has either the imagination or executive ability to carry such reform through. And worse, some think they do and are wrong.
Yes, they were in a tough spot, but they have made the wrong call at every turn. Which raises alarming questions about their knowledge and judgement.
Of course a decent chunk of voters stopped voting Labour while Blair was still around (4m in eight years). Ed got almost as many votes in 2015 as TB did in 2005, and Corbyn more in both 2017 and 2019. It's interesting to consider if Blair could have bullshitted his way out of the great financial crash if he'd stuck around, the trajectory of his vote winning ways suggests not.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2006/apr/23/uk.iraq
In The Times today
Gavin Williamson, England’s education secretary, has angered Scottish ministers by accusing them of “degrading” this year’s exam results.
He rejected criticism of his approach and told The Times yesterday that moving to a system like Scotland’s, based on predictions, would be unwise. “In Scotland you’ve got a system where there aren’t any controls; you’ve got rampant grade inflation,” he said. “There’s been no checks and balances in that system; it degrades every single grade.
“If we see one year where you see the grade distributions so distorted and so changed, then actually the value and worth of what those grades are is damaged as a result.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/gavin-williamson-scotland-has-degraded-its-exam-results-xfgvwkxck
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1294901309280325632
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1294901711300173825
And he’s not wrong.
Given that his own judgement is to put it mildly not all it might be, the fact that he sees so much more clearly than OFQUAL on this suggests they have an alarming level of complacency or ignorance about their operations.
Simply put all the issue relates to how OFQUAL handle small cohorts where statistical estimates completely falls apart (which mainly occur in private schools who have done very well out of this).
what then screwed everything (and everyone else) up was that statistical analysis was used to identify appropriate grades after a whole set of A grades has been rendered untouchable. Leaving the larger cohorts suffering the reductions...
And yes, no result here would have been perfect but this solution introduced a bias towards private schools because they saw an obvious problem and fixed it but didn't see the immediate (and far bigger) flaw that fixing the initial problem created.
But hey experts aren't to be trusted...
I don't know much about Bastani's background, but the working class warriors that are Jones and Sarkar have never had to do a day's graft in their lives.